jerryking + albert_gore   2

A 25-Question Twitter Quiz to Predict Retweets - NYTimes.com
JULY 1, 2014 | NYT | Sendhil Mullainathan.

how “smart” algorithms are created from big data: Large data sets with known correct answers serve as a training bed and then new data serves as a test bed — not too differently from how we might learn what our co-workers find funny....one of the miracles of big data: Algorithms find information in unexpected places, uncovering “signal” in places we thought contained only “noise.”... the Achilles’ heel of prediction algorithms--being good at prediction often does not mean being better at creation. (1) One barrier is the oldest of statistical problems: Correlation is not causation.(2) an inherent paradox lies in predicting what is interesting. Rarity and novelty often contribute to interestingness — or at the least to drawing attention. But once an algorithm finds those things that draw attention and starts exploiting them, their value erodes. (3) Finally, and perhaps most perversely, some of the most predictive variables are circular....The new big-data tools, amazing as they are, are not magic. Like every great invention before them — whether antibiotics, electricity or even the computer itself — they have boundaries in which they excel and beyond which they can do little.
predictive_analytics  massive_data_sets  limitations  algorithms  Twitter  analytics  data  data_driven  Albert_Gore  Achilles’_heel  boundary_conditions  noise  signals  paradoxes  correlations  causality  counterintuitive  training_beds  test_beds  rarity  novelty  interestingness  hard_to_find 
july 2014 by jerryking
A tech-powered end to the middle class
Feb. 21 2013 | The Globe and Mail | CHRYSTIA FREELAND.
One way to divide people is into those who think this time is different and those who believe there is never anything new under the sun. That split can be a matter of temperament, of politics or even of religion. But today it is relevant for another, more urgent reason: It describes how people think about the most critical economic problem in the industrialized world – the dearth of well-paying middle-class jobs....
"thanks to the tech revolution, the traditional link between rising productivity and a rising standard of living (i.e. wages) for the middle class has been broken. Gore worries that severed link may be causing the economic slowdown in the developed economies: A weakened middle class lacks the spending power to drive growth.

One of the smartest academics studying this phenomenon is Erik Brynjolfsson, a management professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The co-author of a new book, Race Against the Machine, believes the tech revolution is having a powerful and unprecedented impact. “Most of the debate … is missing the tectonic changes in the way the economy works, which are driven by technology,” he said recently. “This is the big story of our time, and it is going to accelerate over the next 10 years.”

Like Mr. Gore, Mr. Brynjolfsson thinks the canary in the coal mine is the decoupling of gains in productivity and in wages. “Productivity since 2000 has grown faster than in the 1970s, ’80s or ’90s,” he said. “But starting in the late 1990s, we’ve had this decoupling of wages from productivity.” He sees this as a historic watershed, noting that there is “no economic law” that productivity and jobs go together.

That change has tremendous implications. Productivity and innovation, the focus of policy makers and business leaders, no longer guarantee widely shared prosperity. “Digital technologies are different in that they allow people with skills to replicate their talents to serve billions,” Mr. Brynjolfsson noted. “There is really a drastic winner-take-all effect because every industry is becoming like the software industry.”

The danger isn’t structural unemployment (as many feared during the depths of the financial crisis). The problem is what kind of jobs, at what kind of salaries, the tech-powered economy of the future will generate.
Chrystia_Freeland  Albert_Gore  books  Erik_Brynjolfsson  MIT  downward_mobility  seismic_shifts  middle_class  winner-take-all  Al_Gore  Kleiner_Perkins  Luddites  productivity  innovation  hollowing_out  the_Great_Decoupling  economic_stagnation  '90s  This_Time_is_Different 
february 2013 by jerryking

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