inspiral + forecast   521

Why Trump Worries Historians More Than Economists - Bloomberg
If you think about these questions enough, you can end up very nervous indeed. Historians have seen too many modest mistakes spiral out of control and turn into disasters.

Economists, in contrast, work more with general models than with concrete historical situations, and those models emphasize underlying structural forces. Economies have fairly set populations, birth rates, natural resources, capital stocks, savings rates, trading partners, and so on. So to an economist, the final outcomes are closer to necessary than contingent.
history  economics  contrast  forecast  author:TylerCowen  Bloomberg  2018 
18 days ago by inspiral
REDEF ORIGINAL: Why HBO Needs to Grow (The Future of HBO, Pt. I)
HBO is one of the most successful media brands in history. But like all businesses, it will still need to change and grow if it wants to remain king. Over-the-top distribution means far more than just changing screens.
HBO  television  streamingmedia  profile  review  flywheel  winnertakesall  forecast  REDEF  2018 
august 2018 by inspiral
How Batteries Went From Primitive Power to Global Domination - Bloomberg
The technology that’s been in our pocket for decades has moved into cars—and that’s just the start.
battery  lithiumion  energy  growth  forecast  electricvehicles  opportunity  Bloomberg  2018 
june 2018 by inspiral
China Couldn’t Keep Growing Like Mad Forever - Bloomberg
So China, already the world’s largest economy, will almost certainly become the most economically important country in the history of the modern world. But a combination of natural and self-imposed constraints will probably keep it from global domination.
economy  growth  forecast  China  author:NoahSmith  Bloomberg  2018 
may 2018 by inspiral
Steps to autonomy — Benedict Evans
As with most issues in autonomy today, there are many more questions than answers - this is, again,  like trying to predict the shape of the 2018 smartphone market in 2000. But my point here is that even the terms of the discussion might be misleading. Almost certainly, there will not be a moment in 2023 or 2027 when the first ‘autonomous car’ goes on sale, with a sticker that says ‘Level 4 Certified’. There might never be a ‘first’ L4 or L5 car, or there might be lots of different ‘firsts’. 
automotive  selfdrivingvehicles  evolution  forecast  BenedictEvans  2018 
march 2018 by inspiral
Meehan Crist reviews ‘The Water Will Come’ by Jeff Goodell · LRB 22 February 2018
What will happen in the next eighty years remains far from certain. There is a tipping point after which ice sheets will fully collapse – Greenland holds enough water to raise sea levels by roughly 22 feet – but researchers don’t know where that point lies. In January, NOAA released a major report on sea level rise that factors in current ice-sheet collapse and more than doubles the median rise in global sea levels predicted at the time of the Paris Agreement, from 2.3 feet to 4.9 feet. Goodell’s conclusion is crystal clear: ‘If we want to minimise the impact of sea level rise in the next century, here’s how we do it: stop burning fossil fuels and move to higher ground.’ If humans stopped using fossil fuels entirely by 2050, we might face two to three feet of sea level rise by the end of the century. Instead of 4.9 feet. Or 11 feet. But the water will come. The future depends on how humans rise to meet it.
climatechange  globalwarming  sealevelrising  forecast  environment  JeffGoodell  LondonReviewofBooks  2018 
march 2018 by inspiral
Charles Mann: Can Planet Earth Feed 10 Billion People? - The Atlantic
And here is the origin of the decades-long dispute between Wizards and Prophets. Although the argument is couched in terms of calories per acre and ecosystem conservation, the disagreement at bottom is about the nature of agriculture—and, with it, the best form of society. To Borlaugians, farming is a kind of useful drudgery that should be eased and reduced as much as possible to maximize individual liberty. To Vogtians, agriculture is about maintaining a set of communities, ecological and human, that have cradled life since the first agricultural revolution, 10,000-plus years ago. It can be drudgery, but it is also work that reinforces the human connection to the Earth. The two arguments are like skew lines, not on the same plane.

My daughter is 19 now, a sophomore in college. In 2050, she will be middle-aged. It will be up to her generation to set up the institutions, laws, and customs that will provide for basic human needs in the world of 10 billion. Every generation decides the future, but the choices made by my children’s generation will resonate for as long as demographers can foresee. Wizard or Prophet? The choice will be less about what this generation thinks is feasible than what it thinks is good.
agriculture  demographics  growth  forecast  WilliamVogt  NormanBorlaug  Malthus  GreenRevolution  global  TheAtlantic  2018 
january 2018 by inspiral
The Great AI Paradox - MIT Technology Review
This isn’t just a semantic quibble. There’s a big difference between a machine that displays “intelligent behavior,” no matter how useful that behavior is, and one that is actually intelligent. Now, let’s grant that the definition of intelligence is murky. And as computers become more powerful, it’s tempting to move the goalposts farther away and redefine intelligence so that it remains something machines can’t yet be said to possess.
artificialintelligence  forecast  review  critique  TechnologyReview  2017 
december 2017 by inspiral
Bitcoin and Blockchain Will Reveal What They're Actually Good For in 2018 | WIRED
Those bets will continue as long as the market keeps rising. The cryptocurrency boom has been built on abundance—both in capital (because interest rates have been so low for so long) and in technical resources (because there were lots of idle CPUs before the cryptocurrency frenzy commenced). As BitTorrent inventor Bram Cohen says, “Bitcoin does a very good job of wasting every available resource it can get its hands on.” The technical resources have begun to dwindle, which is why gamers have to pay more for their graphic cards—the Bitcoin miners have bought up all the hardware. The slightest whiff of a financial crisis will tighten the available financial resources, too. The real test for cryptocurrencies, next year and beyond, will be whether they can evolve to be more efficient. Remember: The Cambrian Era ended in mass extinction.
Bitcoin  blockchain  review  critique  forecast  Wired  2017 
december 2017 by inspiral
India Warily Eyes AI - MIT Technology Review
Technology outsourcing has been India’s only reliable job creator in the past 30 years. Now artificial intelligence threatens to wipe out those gains.
enterprise  outsourcing  informationtechnology  automation  employment  decline  forecast  India  TechnologyReview  2017 
october 2017 by inspiral
Is Trend Forecasting Doing More Harm to Fashion Than Good? — The Fashion Law
Worth told Forbes in 2014 that trend forecasting “used to be a real source of inspiration for designers, but now it’s just doing their job for them. You can download CAD [computer-aided design] drawings of a garment and just tweak it. It has made life too easy for people in the creative space; it has made them lazy.” [Note: Worth’s Forbes interview coincided with the launch of his new business a more customized trend forecasting service, which is not affiliated with WGSN].
fashion  originality  trends  forecast  WGSN  review  critique  TheFashionLaw  2017 
october 2017 by inspiral
North Korea’s “not quite” ICBM can’t hit the lower 48 states | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
General conclusions—for now. Our general conclusions from intensive study of a wide variety of data relating to the two rockets that North Korea launched in July:

The Hwasong-14 does not currently constitute a nuclear threat to the lower 48 states of the United States.
The flight tests on July 4 and 28 were a carefully choreographed deception by North Korea to create a false impression that the Hwasong-14 is a near-ICBM that poses a nuclear threat to the continental US.
The Hwasong-14 tested on July 4 and 28 may not even be able to deliver a North Korean atomic bomb to Anchorage, Alaska.
Although it is clear that North Korea is not capable of manufacturing sophisticated rocket components, their skill and ingenuity in using Soviet rocket motor components has grown very substantially. This is not good news for the long run.
nuclearweapons  ICBM  review  forecast  NorthKorea  TheBulletin  2017 
august 2017 by inspiral
North Korea War Looms -- U.S. Must Forsake Bluster & Get Serious | National Review
The Trump administration has to grow up, fast. The president can’t issue threats without consulting with military leaders. He shouldn’t confront one of the most serious American foreign-policy challenges since the end of the Cold War with a skeleton diplomatic crew. He cannot be impulsive. He has to listen. He has to be sober-minded. And his trio of generals must rise to the occasion. Maybe not now, maybe not tomorrow, but soon enough, fateful decisions will be made. May those decisions be wise. Millions of lives hang in the balance.
conflict  war  forecast  internationalrelations  NorthKorea  SouthKorea  USA  NationalReview  2017 
august 2017 by inspiral
Above Avalon: iPhone Evolution
The iPhone's most remarkable quality is the degree to which its role in our lives has changed. In 2007, the iPhone was a computer that fit in our pocket. The product evolved into the most valuable communications tool in our life thanks to advances in camera technology. We are now on the verge of the iPhone becoming a new kind of personal navigator as Apple embraces augmented reality. The iPhone's role in our life doesn't remain static, but rather it evolves. This fact has major implications when it comes to thinking about iPhone sales and pricing, screen size preference, upgrade trends, and even how other gadgets will fit into our lives. 
iPhone  Apple  review  history  strategy  pricing  forecast  AboveAvalon  2017 
may 2017 by inspiral
The Local News Business Model – Stratechery by Ben Thompson
Indeed, the real problem with local newspapers is more obvious than folks like Rutenberg wish to admit: no one — advertisers nor subscribers — wants to pay for them because they’re not worth paying for. If newspapers were actually holding local government accountable I don’t think they would have any problem earning money; that they aren’t is a function of wasting time and money on the past instead of the future.
journalism  webjournalism  newspapers  local  subscription  review  forecast  Stratechery  2017 
may 2017 by inspiral
Netflix, Amazon, and the End of Independent Film As We Know It
Twenty-five years ago, films emerging from festivals like Sundance disrupted the movie business, producing subversive filmmakers like Quentin Tarantino and insurgent forces like Miramax. Now, thanks to Amazon and Netflix, the disruption is coming for the indies. Filmmakers talk about the shift, and what it means for the future of movies.
cinema  films  Netflix  Amazon  AmazonVideo  AmazonStudios  indie  arthouse  streamingmedia  review  forecast  TheRinger  2017 
april 2017 by inspiral
How much could commuter cycling increase in your part of England? | Environment | The Guardian
New tool maps the potential increase in bike journeys under different scenarios – from routes avoiding hills to adopting e-bikes – revealing health benefits and informing future investment
cycling  advocacy  forecast  PropensitytoCycle  cities  UK  Guardian  2017 
april 2017 by inspiral
Unreel | Flash Forward
This month on Flash Forward, we go to a future where anybody can make a video of you doing anything they want. And that technology is cheap and easy to access. What happens?
onlinevideo  identity  privacy  CGI  revengeporn  forecast  podcast  FlashForward  2017 
april 2017 by inspiral
The first decade of augmented reality — Benedict Evans
Today, I think augmented reality* is somewhere between points two and three - we've seen some great demos and the first prototypes and we don't have a mass-market commercial  product, but we're close.
augmentedreality  review  development  evolution  forecast  BenedictEvans  2017 
april 2017 by inspiral
Madison Avenue Takes a Darker Turn - Bloomberg Gadfly
Ads for consumer goods are often populated by happy-looking people blessed with blue skies and permanent sunshine. For the folk on Madison Avenue, they've started to take a darker turn.The world's second-biggest advertiser, Unilever Plc, is on a push to improve profitability to placate shareholders after it rebuffed a takeover by Kraft Heinz Foods Co. It wants to cut the 7.7 billion euros ($8.2 billion) it spent last year to promote its brands, including Lipton, Knorr, and Dove, and halve the number of agencies it uses for creative work.That's obviously going to hurt Unilever's ad land suppliers, chief among them WPP Plc. Martin Sorrell's company got about 3 percent of its revenue last year doing creative work for the Anglo-Dutch consumer giant, as well as placing its ads across TV, radio and online.Plus there's a strong chance that the contagion will spread to other packaged foods and consumer goods makers. They're all struggling with weak growth, and are having to compensate by slashing costs to fatten margins. 
FMCG  advertising  media  Unilever  decline  forecast  Bloomberg  2017 
april 2017 by inspiral
Detroit is kicking Silicon Valley’s ass in the race to build self-driving cars - The Verge
Earlier today, Recode and several other outlets reported that Tesla is now worth more than Ford after delivering a record number of cars for the quarter. This news will no doubt lead to some celebration in Silicon Valley, which has sought to portray itself as the logical successor to Detroit as the capital of American innovation. But new research released today shows that the upstarts on the sunny West Coast — Uber, Google, and Tesla — still have a lot of catching up to do when it comes to outpacing their rivals in chilly Michigan.

That’s the assessment of Navigant Research, which scored 18 companies working on self-driving technology on 10 different criteria related to strategy, manufacturing, and execution. The report then combined all that into an overall score to get a sense of who’s ahead and who’s not. General Motors and Ford are currently leading the pack, with Daimler and Renault-Nissan close behind. Those four companies make up Navigant’s “leader” category. In other words, when you climb into your first self-driving car in 2021, it will almost certainly be built by one of those four companies.
selfdrivingvehicles  automotive  forecast  leaguetable  ranking  GM  Ford  Mercedes  Renault-Nissan  Uber  Volvo  Toyota  Volkswagen  Tesla  NavigantResearch  TheVerge  2017 
april 2017 by inspiral
Tech community "dumbfounded" by Mnuchin's dismissal of AI impact on jobs - Axios
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin riled the tech community this morning when he told Axios' Mike Allen that displacement of jobs by artificial intelligence and automation is "not even on my radar screen" because the technology is "50-100 more years" away. Mnuchin also said he is "not worried at all" about robots displacing humans in the near future. "In fact, I'm optimistic."
automation  artificialintelligence  employment  SteveMnuchin  forecast  review  critique  Axios  2017 
march 2017 by inspiral
Why Ring, Not Amazon Echo, Is The Killer IoT Product.
“to engage listeners in their home you appeal to i) the instinct for self preservation ii) sex iii) the family instinct or iv) all of the three together if you can manage”
internetofthings  SmartHome  Alexa  Ring  opportunity  forecast  Hackernoon  2017 
march 2017 by inspiral
Apple’s Next Big Thing: Augmented Reality - Bloomberg
Tim Cook has talked up a lot of technologies since becoming Apple Inc.'s chief executive in 2011. Driverless cars. Artificial intelligence. Streaming television. But no technology has fired up Cook quite like augmented reality, which overlays images, video and games on the real world. Cook has likened AR's game-changing potential to that of the smartphone. At some point, he said last year, we will all "have AR experiences every day, almost like eating three meals a day. It will become that much a part of you."

Investors impatient for Apple's next breakthrough will be happy to know that Cook is very serious about AR. People with knowledge of the company's plans say Apple has embarked on an ambitious bid to bring the technology to the masses—an effort Cook and his team see as the best way for the company to dominate the next generation of gadgetry and keep people wedded to its ecosystem.

Apple has built a team combining the strengths of its hardware and software veterans with the expertise of talented outsiders, say the people, who requested anonymity to discuss internal strategy. Run by a former Dolby Laboratories executive, the group includes engineers who worked on the Oculus and HoloLens virtual reality headsets sold by Facebook and Microsoft as well as digital-effects wizards from Hollywood. Apple has also acquired several small firms with knowledge of AR hardware, 3D gaming and virtual reality software.
Apple  augmentedreality  hardware  forecast  wearablecomputing  Bloomberg  2017 
march 2017 by inspiral
How automation will impact jobs: the optimistic version — Quartz
According to the optimist’s viewpoint, a factory that saves money on labor through automation will either:
Lower prices, which makes its products more appealing and creates an increased demand that may lead to the need for more workers.
Generate more profit or pay higher wages. That may lead to increased investment or increased consumption, which can also lead to more production, and thus, more employment.
automation  employment  review  advocacy  critique  forecast  Quartz  2017 
march 2017 by inspiral
eMarketer: Snapchat growth driven by older users, as usage among young adults declines | TechCrunch
Snapchat has a reputation for being an app that’s confusing to the “olds” – something the company tried to address with a redesign just ahead of filing for its IPO. In addition, the app has expanded beyond its original use case, which focused on communication, and now includes short, easily digestible content from a number of sources, including media and entertainment properties. It seems these shifts may be paying off. According to a new report out today from eMarketer, much of Snapchat’s growth is now being driven by older Americans.

The analyst firm says that this year, 6.4 percent of Snapchat’s users will be between the ages of 45 and 54, which is up from the 4.2 percent previously projected. Of course, that’s still a small sliver of the pie for an app whose primary demographic is teens and young adults. But eMarketer says that all projections for those older than 45 have been adjusted upward, while projections for users 24 and younger have decreased slightly.
Snapchat  consumer  research  forecast  demographics  penetration  USA  eMarketer  Techcrunch  2017 
march 2017 by inspiral
Toyota's Gill Pratt on Self-Driving Cars and the Reality of Full Autonomy - IEEE Spectrum
At Toyota’s CES press conference earlier this month, Pratt took the stage to address some of the challenges facing anyone working on automotive autonomy. There are many of these, and frequently, the amount of progress that the industry is making towards full autonomy is misunderstood, or even occasionally misrepresented. With that in mind, he spent a solid 20 minutes giving the audience a much needed reality check.
GillPratt  Toyota  automotive  selfdrivingvehicles  interview  review  forecast  IEEESpectrum  2017 
january 2017 by inspiral
Universal Music and Spotify talk music-streaming in 2017
Executives from Spotify and Universal Music kicked off the NY:LON Connect conference we organised with the Music Business Association in London this morning by giving their views on how the music-streaming market is shaping up in 2017.
music  streamingmedia  review  trends  forecast  Spotify  UniversalMusic  MusicAlly  2017 
january 2017 by inspiral
Asking the wrong questions — Benedict Evans
So, a pretty common theme of discussion in tech now is to ask what comes 'after' mobile, now that it is moving from the creation to deployment phase and the smartphone platform wars etc are over. There are a bunch of exciting things going on, certainly, from machine learning to AR and VR to electric and autonomous cars. What content will work in VR? Who will be best placed to make AR glasses? Will EV batteries be a competitive advantage, or end up like LCD screens, low-margin commodity? Who will have enough of the right kind of driving data for autonomy? But every time I think about these, I try to think what questions I'm not asking. I still want a glider though. 
technology  forecast  innovation  review  critique  BenedictEvans  2017 
january 2017 by inspiral
RA: Some thoughts on 2017
RA's editorial team give their views on the coming year.
dancemusic  clubbing  forecast  music  ResidentAdvisor  2017 
january 2017 by inspiral
Top 10 Tech Predictions for 2017 | Tech.pinions - Perspective, Insight, Analysis
Predicting the future is more art than science, yet it’s always an interesting exercise to engage in as a new year comes upon us. So with the close of what was a difficult, though interesting year in the technology business, here’s a look at my predictions for the top 10 tech developments of 2017.
tech  forecast  trends  virtualreality  augmentedreality  mobileapps  selfdrivingvehicles  smarthome  AmazonEcho  Alexa  internetofthings  virtualassistant  chatbots  author:BobODonnell  Techpinions  2017 
january 2017 by inspiral
Bitcoin’s Rally Crushed Every Other Currency in 2016. Here’s Why - Bloomberg
“Bitcoin is coming into its own,” says Tim Draper, a venture capitalist who’s bought thousands of bitcoins over the years. “There are starting to be consumer uses for bitcoin, and if people have any concerns about their own fiat currency -- the rupee, for example -- they flee to bitcoin as an alternate currency.”

The rationale behind bitcoin’s booms and busts can be difficult to pinpoint, but here’s what might be responsible for the cryptocurrency’s stellar surge this year:
Bitcoin  Blockchain  valuation  growth  money  currency  forecast  Bloomberg  2016 
december 2016 by inspiral
Facebook at a Crossroads
In 2017, Zuckerberg will have to manage the awkward adolescence of his existing business and try to show real progress on his aspirations for one day doing something larger.
Facebook  strategy  revenues  growth  forecast  TechnologyReview  2016 
december 2016 by inspiral
Is Donald Trump a Threat to Democracy? - The New York Times
American democracy is not in imminent danger of collapse. If ordinary circumstances prevail, our institutions will most likely muddle through a Trump presidency. It is less clear, however, how democracy would fare in a crisis. In the event of a war, a major terrorist attack or large-scale riots or protests — all of which are entirely possible — a president with authoritarian tendencies and institutions that have come unmoored could pose a serious threat to American democracy. We must be vigilant. The warning signs are real.
DonaldTrump  democracy  politics  review  critique  forecast  NYTimes  2016 
december 2016 by inspiral
10 sensible web design trends for 2017 | Econsultancy
Why have I used the adjective 'sensible' in my headline, instead of something more click-worthy like 'crucial'?
websitedesign  trends  forecast  menu  hamburgermenu  duotones  parallaxscrolling  MaterialMotion  motion  stockphotography  progressivewebapps  GoogleFonts  minimalism  Econsultancy  2016 
december 2016 by inspiral
Cameras, ecommerce and machine learning — Benedict Evans
The key thing here is that the nice attention-grabbing demos of computer vision that recognize a dog or a tree, or a pedestrian, are just the first, obvious use cases for a fundamental new capability - to read images. And not just to read them the way humans can, but to read a billion and see the patterns. Among many other things, that has implications for a lot of retail, including parts not really affected by Amazon, and indeed for the $500bn spent every year on advertising, 
camera  machinelearning  innovation  impact  forecast  BenedictEvans  2016 
november 2016 by inspiral
China's Threat to the U.S. - The Atlantic
The country has become repressive in a way that it has not been since the Cultural Revolution. What does its darkening political climate—and growing belligerence—mean for the United States?
China  politics  totalitarianism  censorship  internationalrelations  review  critique  forecast  TheAtlantic  2016 
november 2016 by inspiral
Mobile Takes Majority Share of UK Time with Digital Media - eMarketer
In 2016, for the first time, adults in the UK will spend more time with their mobile devices than with desktop and laptop computers, eMarketer projects. This year, mobile time—which includes nonvoice time with tablets and mobile phones—will account for more than a quarter of daily media time for the average adult, at 2 hours and 29 minutes, representing an 11.8% rise over last year.
media  television  radio  internet  print  PCs  mobile  smartphones  consumer  penetration  growth  forecast  UK  eMarketer  2016 
november 2016 by inspiral
Here's One Thing I Got Really Wrong | National Review
Yes, I know those numbers will change ever-so-slightly as the remaining one percent of outstanding votes trickles in, but while I knew that the Democratic party had internal problems, I had no idea of the extent of those problems. While I knew that Hillary Clinton was a bad candidate, I had no idea how bad. It turns out that the GOP is more functional and united than the Democrats. I clearly had my problems with the degree of GOP unity (I was aghast at the lockstep support for a man I believed to be morally, temperamentally, and ideologically unfit), that unity was a fact, and it gave Trump enough of a base to win. 
DonaldTrump  HillaryClinton  elections  forecast  critique  author:DavidFrench  USA  NationalReview  2016 
november 2016 by inspiral
The long-term consequences of Brexit - Marginal REVOLUTION
Britain’s service sector will see its exports drop up to 60 per cent after leaving the European single market, even with a free-trade agreement with the EU in place, according to research from a leading think-tank.

A new study from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, to be published on Wednesday, says that signing a free-trade agreement with the EU will not recoup any loss in services exports, but would reduce the long-term fall in goods exports from between 58-65 per cent to between 35-44 per cent.

…In theory, the falls in exports could be reduced if Britain managed to sign a deep bilateral agreement with the EU, including good coverage of the services sector. But Monique Ebell, the author of the report, said: “The average FTA for services at the moment is not very comprehensive and tends not to do very much.”

In 2014, 40 per cent of Britain’s services trade, and 56 per cent of its goods trade, was with other European Economic Area members, meaning that the overall fall in British exports would be 24 per cent for services and 20-25 per cent for goods.
Brexit  services  economy  impact  forecast  NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch  UK  decline  FinancialTimes  MarginalRevolution  2016 
november 2016 by inspiral
The rise of new automotive companies | TechCrunch
Remember the list of car companies exhibited at the Cité de l’Automobile? Startups that have come and gone, leaving museum pieces as their legacy. In the same vein, clearly not all of the current automobile companies mentioned herein will still be around in the next few years — but some of them will certainly become dominant fixtures in our everyday mobility.
automotive  electricvehicles  startup  disruption  opportunity  forecast  Techcrunch  2016 
october 2016 by inspiral
Forecasting the Future of Libraries 2015 | American Libraries Magazine
In 2013, the American Library Association (ALA) an­nounced the formation of a Center for the Future of Libraries. The project, initially supported by a grant from the Institute of Museum and Library Services (IMLS), focuses much of its work on identifying emerging trends relevant to the libraries, the librarians, and the communi­ties they serve.
libraries  AmericanLibraryAssociation  CenterfortheFutureofLibraries  trends  forecast  AmericanLibrariesMagazine  2015 
october 2016 by inspiral
Which Future for Libraries?
The library, while appearing to be stable has changed throughout history. It has moved from being elite based, for the few that could read, to being a public space, and funded by the public has well, instead of by wealthy benefactors. And while the advent of the printing press changed the nature of the library, moving it from the monastery and the painstaking efforts of monk scribes, the recent digitalization of the world is leading to even more dramatic transformations.

The library has entered a contested domain – its definition, its bundle of services are up for grabs – who defines it, who pays for it, what are its basic purposes. And with the onset of edu-tainment and as the peer-to-peer knowledge revolution, might libraries become places not just for receiving knowledge but for directly creating knowledge.
libraries  forecast  trends  review  Metafuture 
october 2016 by inspiral
The Future of Libraries Has Little to Do with Books | GOOD
In a digital age that has left book publishers reeling, libraries in the world’s major cities seem poised for a comeback, though it’s one that has very little to do with books. The Independent Library Report—published in December by the U.K.’s Department for Culture, Media, and Sport—found that libraries across the nation are re-inventing themselves by increasingly becoming “vibrant and attractive community hubs,” focusing on the “need to create digital literacy—and in an ideal world, digital fluency.”
libraries  trends  forecast  eBooks  digitalliteracy  review  GOOD  2016 
october 2016 by inspiral
Some guesses as to implications of autonomous vehicles | west north
Autonomous vehicles, driverless cars: ask two people what they think, and it seems like you’ll get three opinions. Here are my reactions to four recent publications on the topic — keeping in mind that previous reports of distance’s death were an exaggeration. (As CBRE’s Revathi Greenwood notes, vehicle speeds won’t change, and so Marchetti’s Wall still remains.)
selfdrivingvehicles  electricvehicles  automotive  forecast  review  WallStreetJournal  KelleyBlueBook  RockyMountainInstitute  economics  WestNorth  2016 
october 2016 by inspiral
The Administration’s Report on the Future of Artificial Intelligence | whitehouse.gov
A new report from the Administration focuses on the opportunities, considerations, and challenges of Artificial Intelligence (AI).
artificialintelligence  review  opportunity  strengths  research  forecast  USA  WhiteHouse  2016 
october 2016 by inspiral
Google Car: Sense and Money Impasse
Without a doubt, self-driving cars will change and save lives. Interest is high, money — and ink — pours in, demos are everywhere. But as we’re starting to see with the Google Car, technical, philosophical, and business model questions stand between us and the Third Transportation Revolution.
selfdrivingvehicles  automotive  Google  forecast  opportunity  review  author:JeanLouisFassee  MondayNote  2016 
september 2016 by inspiral
The Third Transportation Revolution – Medium
Or look at San Francisco, where the historic Ferry Building was blocked for decades by a two-level freeway. Since locals couldn’t really get there, it became a rarely-visited office building. But when the road was damaged by an earthquake in 1989, the city saw an opportunity. Instead of rebuilding the space for cars, it tore down the highway and reimagined the area as a place where people could gather. Shops, restaurants, and cafes were built, and before long the Ferry Building became the focal point of the San Francisco waterfront. Every weekend, almost 25,000 people visit its farmers market and support local vendors. As a result, new neighborhoods emerged, and within five years, there was 51% more housing available in the surrounding area.
selfdrivingvehicles  ridesharing  Lyft  advocacy  cities  urbandevelopment  evolution  transport  review  forecast  author:JohanZimmer  Medium  2016 
september 2016 by inspiral
Brexit fallout: markets v economists — FT.com
Have equities and sterling rallies proved gloomy forecasts wrong?
Brexit  EuropeanUnion  economy  impact  forecast  review  FinancialTimes  2016 
september 2016 by inspiral
Motor industry: Pressure on the pump — FT.com
Electric cars could make up a quarter of the world’s automobiles by 2040. How will it affect oil demand?
automotive  electricvehicles  battery  petroleum  forecast  review  FinancialTimes  2016 
september 2016 by inspiral
The Decline & Fall of Retail As We Know It - The Robin Report
Can anything be done? Nothing. Looking forward, we aren’t going to be shopping in malls, at least not the ones that cater to the middle-class shopper. Luxury retail will continue to thrive, but where? In their perfectly curated venues. Middle-brow brands that want to maintain a business will have to adopt luxe approaches,in terms of service and staff training, at least for a few showcase venues. Otherwise, we’re shopping online folks. We are on the cusp of a revolution every bit as powerful as the tectonic business-plate shifts we all studied in the Industrial Revolution during sophomore European History. Most major retailers are going to become the equivalent of 19th century landed gentry, charging tourists admission to Downton Abbey-like retail store curiosities.
retail  decline  review  forecast  USA  RobinReport  2016 
september 2016 by inspiral
Liebreich and McCrone: Electric vehicles – It’s not just about the car - Bloomberg New Energy Finance
For all the seismic shifts electric vehicles will bring to the car industry, as with mobile phones and cheap renewable energy, as with all transformations in major economic sectors, some of the biggest impacts may be felt in other parts of the economy.  Here are some of the sectors that could be hit by the resulting tsunami:
electricvehicles  automotive  forecast  impact  supplychain  retail  energy  petroleum  roads  cities  transport  taxation  Bloomberg  BloombergNewEnergyFinance  2016 
august 2016 by inspiral
REDEF ORIGINAL: Letting it Go: The End of Windowing (and What Comes Next)
There are few concepts more fundamental to the video media business than that of content "windowing" – yet even this strategy is crumbling under the pressures of digital distribution. How will rights owners maximize the value of their content in the post-window era? The answer depends on how badly you want it.
film  movies  windowing  distribution  revenues  maximisation  forecast  author:MatthewBall  MediaRedef  2016 
august 2016 by inspiral
Revisiting the Peak Car Debate | Streetsblog USA
The last two years have seen a confluence of three factors: steady economic and employment growth, low gas prices, and easy access to automobile credit that has resaturated the market for personal cars.  It has never been cheaper to buy an expensive car, it hasn’t been cheaper to fuel it (in real terms) in more than a decade, and it has been many years since as many people have been in as good an economic position to afford the high costs of automobility as they are today.

Is it possible that this set of circumstances represents a durable “new normal”? Perhaps. But it is important to note that both the growth of fracking (which was the precipitating factor, along with slowing growth in global demand, that sparked the ongoing global oil price war) and the growth of car sales have been underwritten by the incursion of huge amounts of debt.
automotive  forecast  pearcar  review  USA  StreetsblogUSA  2016 
august 2016 by inspiral
Checking In On Chat Bots – AVC
When you look closely at WeChat, the chat app that has completely taken over China, you see that its success as an ecosystem of services comes down to the same things: low-friction access to apps; sharing-related discovery (as well as QR codes); a common interface; and messaging as the front door to a world of digital experiences. In fact, there’s no major conversation-based service in WeChat. Instead, there’s just a whole lot of instant interactions.
chatbots  mobile  review  forecast  author:FredWilson  AVC  2016 
august 2016 by inspiral
Great resource shift leaves investors walking tightrope — FT.com
Navigating profound industry transitions is particularly hard for fund managers. Getting on the right side of history isn’t enough, they have to pick emerging winners, judge which of the dominant incumbents can successfully adapt and maintain returns for their own investors as the landscape changes. Nowhere is the challenge more acute than for energy and commodity investors.
petroleum  commodities  lithium  energy  solarenergy  renewableenergy  forecast  investment  FinancialTimes  2016 
august 2016 by inspiral
Self-Driving Cars Will Improve Our Cities. If They Don’t Ruin Them. — Backchannel
If we take action, we can build a dream transportation system around self-driving cars. If we don't, we'll create a nightmare.
selfdrivingvehicles  automotive  electricvehicles  forecast  trends  impact  employment  congestion  transportpolicy  environment  author:RobinChase  2016 
august 2016 by inspiral
Brazil Is Still the Country of the Future - Bloomberg View
Brazil, it is often and not quite fairly said, is the country of the future and always will be. As the Olympics focuses global attention on the country, it's worth exploring the various ways in which this maxim is -- and may not be -- true.

The puzzle with Brazil is neither its successes nor its failures, but rather the combination of the two. The country has such a dynamic feel, and in the postwar era it saw many years of double-digit economic growth. The Economist featured the country on its cover in 2009 as the next miracle take-off, and in 2012 Germany's Der Spiegel published a long article titled “How Good Governance Made Brazil a Model Nation.”
Brazil  economy  politics  history  review  forecast  diversity  author:TylerCowen  Bloomberg  2016 
august 2016 by inspiral
Think Amazon’s Drone Delivery Idea Is a Gimmick? Think Again - The New York Times
If Amazon’s drone program succeeds (and Amazon says it is well on track), it could fundamentally alter the company’s cost structure. A decade from now, drones would reduce the unit cost of each Amazon delivery by about half, analysts at Deutsche Bank projected in a recent research report. If that happens, the economic threat to competitors would be punishing — “retail stores would cease to exist,” Deutsche’s analysts suggested, and we would live in a world more like that of “The Jetsons” than our own.
Amazon  logistics  drones  forecast  delivery  speed  NYTimes  2016 
august 2016 by inspiral
Can you short Uber? — Quartz
Which is to say that investors have made a one-way, uber-bullish bet on Uber, forecasting that the company will be at the center of an utter transformation of our collective lifestyle. If not everyone is betting on it, they’re at least not betting against it. We can state that with some certainty because even if you want to short Uber—which you might wish to if only to hedge or to take on a bit of high-end risk—it is generally thought impossible to do.
  
But what if the consensus has miscalculated? What if the coming trends expected to propel Uber—primarily a decline in private vehicle ownership and the rise of self-driving, clean-powered cars—do generally unfold, but not quite transformationally? What if they take much longer to materialize than anyone is expecting?
Uber  ridesharing  automotive  selfdrivingvehicles  forecast  valuation  review  critique  hedging  short  Quartz  2016 
august 2016 by inspiral
In the future you will own nothing and have access to everything / Boing Boing
In this excerpt from The Inevitable, Kevin imagines a future were people own nothing but have access to everything-- Mark
dematerialisation  sharingeconomy  ownership  trends  forecast  future  author:KevinKelly  BoingBoing  2016 
july 2016 by inspiral
Why We Need to Pick Up Alvin Toffler’s Torch
Yet in rereading Mr. Toffler’s book, as I did last week, it seems clear that his diagnosis has largely panned out, with local and global crises arising daily from our collective inability to deal with ever-faster change.

All around, technology is altering the world: Social media is subsuming journalism, politics and even terrorist organizations. Inequality, driven in part by techno-abetted globalization, has created economic panic across much of the Western world. National governments are in a slow-moving war for dominance with a handful of the most powerful corporations the world has ever seen — all of which happen to be tech companies.

But even though these and bigger changes are just getting started — here come artificial intelligence, gene editing, drones, better virtual reality and a battery-powered transportation system — futurism has fallen out of favor. Even as the pace of technology keeps increasing, we haven’t developed many good ways, as a society, to think about long-term change.

Look at the news: Politics has become frustratingly small-minded and shortsighted. We aren’t any better at recognizing threats and opportunities that we see emerging beyond the horizon of the next election. While roads, bridges, broadband networks and other vital pieces of infrastructure are breaking down, governments, especially ours, have become derelict at rebuilding things — “a near-total failure of our political institutions to invest for the future,” as the writer Elizabeth Drew put it recently.

Continue reading the main story

RELATED COVERAGE


Alvin Toffler, Author of ‘Future Shock,’ Dies at 87 JUNE 29, 2016
In many large ways, it’s almost as if we have collectively stopped planning for the future. Instead, we all just sort of bounce along in the present, caught in the headlights of a tomorrow pushed by a few large corporations and shaped by the inescapable logic of hyper-efficiency — a future heading straight for us. It’s not just future shock; we now have future blindness.
AlvinToffler  futurist  futurism  forecast  FutureShock  technology  future  critique  OfficeofTechnologyAssessment  obituary  author:FarhadManjoo  NYTimes  2016 
july 2016 by inspiral
Facebook executive: Your News Feed will likely be “all video” in five years » Nieman Journalism Lab
A Facebook executive said Tuesday that she expects the social platform will probably be “all video” in five years.

Videos are now viewed 8 billion times daily on Facebook, up from 1 billion a year ago, Nicola Mendelsohn, Facebook’s vice president for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, said at a Fortune conference in London.

An average of 100 million hours of video are watched on Facebook on mobile devices daily, Fortune reported. Facebook Live video has also been “a bigger, faster phenomenon” than the company expected, saying that Live videos get 10 times as many comments than other video.
Facebook  Newsfeed  mobilevideo  onlinevideo  growth  forecast  NiemanLab  2016 
july 2016 by inspiral
Will Brexit Actually Happen? - Bloomberg View
So, yes, I can imagine Britain reversing itself on Brexit. But it's a bit of a stretch.
Brexit  EuropeanUnion  forecast  UK  Bloob 
june 2016 by inspiral
The Future of Work in the Age of Artificial Intelligence - Joi Ito's Web
So while AI and other technologies may some day create a productivity abundance that allows us to eliminate the financial need to work, we will still need to find ways to obtain the social status-as well as a meaningful purpose-we get from work. There are many people who work in our society who aren't paid. One of the largest groups are stay-at-home men and women whose work it is to care for their homes and children. Their labor is not currently counted toward the GDP, and they often do not earn the social status and value they deserve. Could we somehow change the culture and create mechanisms and institutions that provided dignity and social status to people who don't earn money? In some ways academia, religious institutions and non-profit service organizations have some of this structure: social status and dignity that isn't driven primarily by money. Couldn't there be a way to extend this value structure more broadly?
employment  automation  identity  reward  forecast  advocacy  author:JoiIto  JoiIto  2016 
june 2016 by inspiral
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