dunnettreader + unemployment   94

To Help Workers Adjust to Technological Change, First Pinpoint Where It Is Happening -
Changes in technology clearly affect people in different sectors and occupations differently, but providing adequate policy support to workers trying to adjust…
technology  Labor_markets  labor_share  productivity  unemployment  from instapaper
march 2018 by dunnettreader
A New Study of Labor Market Concentration - Roosevelt Institute
Labor economists have traditionally focused on worker-side characteristics, such as education, as the crucial causal variable for explaining outcomes like…
Labor_markets  antitrust  monopsony  unemployment  skills  human_capital  wages  Evernote  from instapaper
march 2018 by dunnettreader
This Day in Labor History: March 11, 1811 - Lawyers, Guns & Money
On March 11, 1811, the Luddite movement began in Arnold, Nottingham, England, when textile workers destroyed the machines where they worked as a protest against…
Luddites  19thC  labor_history  technology  Industrial_Revolution  unemployment  labor_standards  Evernote  from instapaper
march 2018 by dunnettreader
Reading: Barry Eichengreen (2011): Economic History and Economic Policy via Brad DeLong
Barry Eichengreen (2011): Economic History and Economic Policy - EHA Presidential Address 2011
As you read, formulate your answers to the following questions:
1. What does Eichengreen think are the uses of history, as shown in the use of history in trying to understand the macroeconomic crisis that began in 2008?
2.What does Eichengreen think are the abuses of history, as shown in the use of history in trying to understand the macroeconomic crisis that began in 2008?
3.What rules and approaches does Eichengreen arrive it for future people trying to use history better?
Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
monetary_policy  historiography-postWWII  QE  fiscal_policy  unemployment  historiography-19thC  economic_history  economic_policy  Keynesianism  speech  FX-rate_management  downloaded  central_banks  Great_Depression  historiography  FX  austerity  financial_system  financial_crisis  financial_regulation  Minsky  historiography-20thC  FX-misalignment  Great_Recession  inflation 
january 2017 by dunnettreader
Marco Di Maggio
The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer
Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani
NBER Working Paper No. 22625
Issued in September 2016
NBER Program(s):   EFG   LS   PE
We assess the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) serves as an automatic stabilizer to mitigate the economy's sensitivity to shocks. Using a local labor market design based on heterogeneity in local benefit generosity, we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in generosity attenuates the effect of adverse shocks on employment growth by 7% and on earnings growth by 6%. Consistent with a local demand channel, we find that consumption is less responsive to local labor demand shocks in counties with more generous benefits. Our analysis finds that the local fiscal multiplier of unemployment insurance expenditure is approximately 1.9.
paywall  unemployment_insurance  consumer_demand  unemployment  paper  NBER  demand-side  recessions  fiscal_multipliers  automatic_stabilizers  fiscal_policy 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Nina Boberg-Fazlic & Paul Sharp - Welfare Spending Lessons from Pre-Industrial England | LSE blogs - Oct 2016
Cutting welfare spending is unlikely to lead to an increase in private voluntary work and charitable giving, explain Nina Boberg-Fazlic and Paul Sharp. Using historical data from late eighteenth and early nineteenth century England, they illustrate how parts of the country that saw increased levels of spending under the Poor Laws also enjoyed higher levels of charitable income.
local_government  social_democracy  Poor_Laws  Labor_markets  UK_economy  Tories  welfare  Industrial_Revolution  unemployment  UK_politics  philanthropy  demography  British_history  19thC  economic_history  18thC  agriculture-productivity  landowners  population_growth 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Peter Solar - Poor Relief and English Economic Development before the Industrial Revolution (1995) | Economic History Review on JSTOR
The English system of poor relief helped to shape the country's distinctive pre-industrial economy. English relief, when set against continental experience, stands out as uniform and comprehensive in coverage; as reliant on local property taxation for funding; and as generous and reliable in benefits. The insurance provided by relief underpinned the growth of a mobile wage-labour force and facilitated changes inland tenure and use. The fiscal impact of relief expenditure gave taxpayers incentives to put labourers to work and to keep local demographic and economic development in balance.
agriculture-productivity  Labor_markets  economic_history  welfare  Industrial_Revolution  local_government  downloaded  jstor  agriculture  18thC  British_history  17thC  Poor_Laws  article  Europe-Early_Modern  19thC  demography  unemployment 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Does Welfare Spending Crowd Out Charitable Activity? Evidence from Historical England Under the Poor Laws - Boberg-Fazlić - 2015 - The Economic Journal - Wiley Online Library
This study examines the relationship between government spending and charitable activity. We present a novel way of testing the ‘crowding out hypothesis’, making use of the fact that welfare provision under the Old Poor Laws was decided at the parish level, thus giving heterogeneity within a single country. Using data on poor relief spending combined with data on charitable incomes by county before and after 1800, we find a positive relationship: areas with more public provision also enjoyed higher levels of charitable income. These results are confirmed when instrumenting for Poor Law spending and when looking at first differences.
See the LSE blog post that summarizes this study.
bad_economics  British_politics  British_history  Poor_Laws  18thC  budget_deficit  Industrial_Revolution  agriculture  fiscal_policy  Wiley  welfare  Tories  philanthropy  UK_economy  Labor_markets  UK_politics  unemployment  paywall  article  Brexit  19thC  landowners 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
James Tobin - The Monetarist Counter-Revolution Today - An Appraisal (1981) | The Economic Journal on JSTOR
The Monetarist Counter-Revolution Today-An Appraisal
James Tobin
The Economic Journal
Vol. 91, No. 361 (Mar., 1981), pp. 29-42
Published by: Wiley on behalf of the Royal Economic Society
DOI: 10.2307/2231692
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2231692
Via Anne @ Thoma re Krugman returning to Tobin and seeing his counterblast as not the last feeble defense against the new kids on the block - Tobin was right!
Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
RBC  20thC  downloaded  central_banks  Volker  article  social_sciences-post-WWII  wages  monetarism  Friedman_Milton  intellectual_history  economic_theory  monetary_policy  Tobin  inflation  interest_rates  oil_price  Fed  unemployment  post-WWII  Keynesianism 
september 2016 by dunnettreader
FRB: FEDS Notes: Government-Backed Mortgage Insurance Promoted a Speedier Recovery from the Great Recession
URL is for Fed Note that summarizes one part of the larger Paper - April 2016 -- Government-Backed Mortgage Insurance, Financial Crisis, and the Recovery from the Great Recession (PDF) -- Wayne Passmore and Shane M. Sherlund -- Abstract: The Great Recession provides an opportunity to test the proposition that government mortgage insurance programs mitigated the effects of the financial crisis and enhanced the economic recovery from 2009 to 2014. We find that government-sponsored mortgage insurance programs have been responsible for better economic outcomes in counties that participated heavily in these programs. In particular, counties with high levels of participation from government-sponsored enterprises and the Federal Housing Authority had relatively lower unemployment rates, higher home sales, higher home prices, lower mortgage delinquency rates, and less foreclosure activity, both in 2009 (soon after the peak of the financial crisis) and in 2014 (six years after the crisis) than did counties with lower levels of participation. The persistence of better outcomes in counties with heavy participation in federal government programs is consistent with a view that lower government liquidity premiums , lower government credit-risk premiums, and looser government mortgage-underwriting standards yield higher private-sector economic activity after a financial crisis. - Keywords: Financial crisis, Great Recssion, government policy, mortgages - paper downloaded to Tab S2
paper  Fed  Great_Recession  Great_Depression  housing  mortgages  financial_crisis  GSEs  securitization  unemployment  house_prices  countercyclical_policy  downloaded 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Pawel Krolowkowski - Choosing a Control Group for Displaced Workers | Cleveland Fed
The vast majority of studies on the earnings of displaced workers use a control group of continuously employed workers to examine the effects of initial displacements. This approach implies long-lived earnings reductions following displacement even if these effects are not persistent, overstating the losses relative to the true average treatment effect. This paper’s approach isolates the impact of an average displacement without imposing continuous employment on the control group. In a comparison of the standard and alternative approaches using PSID data, the estimated long-run earnings losses fall dramatically from 25 percent to 5 percent. Model simulations reinforce these empirical findings. - Key words: Displacement, earnings, control group, treatment event. - available as pdf
wages  job_security  unemployment  US_economy  trade-job_loss  job_cuts  displaced_workers  training-job  trade_policy  paper 
june 2016 by dunnettreader
What It's Worth - Building a Strong Financial Future
Americans everywhere struggle to build strong financial futures for themselves and their families. The new book, What It's Worth, provides a roadmap for what families, communities and our nation can do to move forward on the path to financial well-being.
Collection of essays by people working on financial inclusion, asset-building etc. - downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
gig_economy  education-finance  philanthropy  credit  usury  financial_innovation  US_society  inequality-wealth  local_government  pensions  corporate_citizenship  mobility  banking  wages  health_care  access_to_finance  housing  financial_regulation  report  social_entrepreneurs  poverty  downloaded  welfare  US_economy  US_politics  families  mortgages  segregation  inequality  NBFI  unemployment  US_government 
april 2016 by dunnettreader
Andrew Haldane: Labour's Share - speech to TUC | Bank of England - Nov 2015 - via Brad DeLong
Good overview of recent work on last 300 years by economic historians and technology impact projections -- lots on internal structural shifts within "labor" and vis a vis capital -- downloaded pdf to Note
speech  economic_history  labor_history  labor_share  Labor_markets  wages  productivity  productivity-labor_share  unemployment  skills  services  AI  IT  unions  UK_economy  monetary_policy  macroeconomic_policy  public_sector  Industrial_Revolution 
november 2015 by dunnettreader
Robert Kuttner - America's Collapsing Trade Initiatives | HuffPost blog - Sept 2015
As Kuttner says, these deals are collapsing under their own (lack of) logic -- though the MNCs that would benefit will do their utmost to keep them alive. The ISDS problem is looking increasingly fatal in the EU - a proposal for a "better" dispute resolution forum is being rejected by both the Friends of the Earth and the US Chamber of Commerce. Kuttner also thinks Canada, regardless of who's the next PM, will struggle to swallow it. The most maddening claim is how the MNCs will accept the US "giving away the store" seen from an American angle of jobs and trade deficits, since their foreign manufacturing operations will benefit.
MNCs  Trans-Pacific-Partnership  investor-State_disputes  FX-rate_management  Labor_markets  wages  Pocket  EU_governance  trade  Transatlantic_Trade_and_InvestmentPartnership  US-China  capital_flows  Obama_administration  China-international_relations  trade-policy  trade-agreements  ISDS  unemployment  US_foreign_policy  FX-misalignment  from pocket
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Hiroshi Yoshikawa, Hideaki Aoyama, Yoshi Fujiwara, Hiroshi Iyetomi - Deflation and money | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 05 September 2015
Deation and inflation are macroeconomic phenomena. However, we cannot fully understand them by only exploring macro data because the behavior of aggregate prices such as the Consumer Price Index depends crucially on the interactions of micro prices. On the other hand, all in all, the results we obtained have confirmed that aggregate prices significantly change, either upward or downward, as the level of real output changes. The correlation between aggregate prices and money, on the other hand, is not significant. The major factors affecting aggregate prices other than the level of real economic activity are the exchange rate and the prices of raw materials represented by the price of oil. Japan suffered from deflation for more than a decade beginning at the end of the last century. More recently, Europe faces a threat of deflation. Our analysis suggests that it is difficult to combat deflation only by expanding the money supply.
paper  prices  deflation  economic_growth  recessions  monetary_policy-effectiveness  QE  central_banks  Japan  FX-rate_management  oil_price  macroeconomics  unemployment 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Joel Mokyr, Chris Vickers, and Nicolas L. Ziebarth - The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different? | AEAweb: Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3): 31-50
Technology is widely considered the main source of economic progress, but it has also generated cultural anxiety throughout history. The developed world is now suffering from another bout of such angst. Anxieties over technology can take on several forms, and we focus on three of the most prominent concerns. First, there is the concern that technological progress will cause widespread substitution of machines for labor, which in turn could lead to technological unemployment and a further increase in inequality in the short run, even if the long-run effects are beneficial. Second, there has been anxiety over the moral implications of technological process for human welfare, broadly defined. While, during the Industrial Revolution, the worry was about the dehumanizing effects of work, in modern times, perhaps the greater fear is a world where the elimination of work itself is the source of dehumanization. A third concern cuts in the opposite direction, suggesting that the epoch of major technological progress is behind us. Understanding the history of technological anxiety provides perspective on whether this time is truly different. We consider the role of these three anxieties among economists, primarily focusing on the historical period from the late 18th to the early 20th century, and then compare the historical and current manifestations of these three concerns. - downloaded pdf to Note
article  economic_history  technology  18thC  20thC  21stC  Industrial_Revolution  change-economic  change-social  unemployment  labor_history  robotics  AI  political_economy  economic_culture  economic_growth  labor_share  labor-service_sector  downloaded 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
New Deal Demodrat - Do rising child care costs & stagnant wages explain the decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate? - August 2015
Sure looks like it -- may be affecting participation rate of men as well -- stay-at-home dads increasingly accepted cultural option where wife making a better salary, but the additional income from the stay-at-home spouse won't cover the child care costs, which have been rising while wages have flat-lined or fallen at the lower and lower middle class segments
Pocket  US_economy  labor_history  unemployment  work-life_balance  child_care  access_to_services  wages  labor-service_sector  from pocket
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao - US economy becoming less sensitive to interest rate changes - via Hutchins Roundup | Brookings Institution July 30 2015
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao of the Kansas City Fed find that, prior to 1985, a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the federal funds rate was associated with a roughly 0.2 percent increase in employment over the following 2 years—255,000 jobs in today’s market—but that the same rate cut today has almost no impact on employment. The authors argue that this is due to a weaker link between short- and long-run interest rates and a general shift in employment from interest rate sensitive industries like manufacturing and construction to less sensitive service providing sectors. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  US_economy  monetary_policy  interest_rates  investment  manufacturing  services  unemployment  economic_growth  monetary_policy-effectiveness  macroeconomic_policy  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Hyun-Sung Khang - Help Wanted -- Finance & Development, June 2015
Pretty balanced discussion of youth labor market problems, challenging the excuses of "skills mismatch" and overly burdensome labor regulations. In the F&D issue downloaded as pdf to Note
article  unemployment  unemployment-youth  skills  Labor_markets  labor_standards  labor_law  education-training  austerity  Eurozone  Eurocrsis  hysterisis  migration  Great_Recession  economic_growth  economic_sociology  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Montfort Mlachila, René Tapsoba, and Sampawende Tapsoba - A Quest for Quality [of economic growth] -- Finance & Development, June 2015, Vol. 52, No. 2
Despite consensus in the economics profession that growth alone does not lead to better social outcomes (Ianchovichina and Gable, 2012), quality growth still lacks a rigorous definition or formal quantification. In a recent paper, we develop a quality of growth index (QGI) that captures both the intrinsic nature of growth and its social dimension. Our premise is that not all growth produces favorable social outcomes. How growth is generated is critical to its sustainability and ability to create decent jobs, enhance living standards, and reduce poverty. We aim in our design of the QGI to capture these multidimensional features of growth by focusing on its very nature and desired social outcomes. -- in F&D issue downloaded as pdf to Note
article  development  economic_growth  political_economy  LDCs  emerging_markets  GDP  GDP-alternatives  inequality  participation-economic  inclusion  marginalized_groups  access_to_services  access_to_finance  SMEs  micro-enterprises  Innovation  innovation-government_policy  rent-seeking  informal_sectors  living_standards  poverty  health_care  education  sustainability  unemployment  common_good  statistics  economic_policy  economic_sociology  economic_reform  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
B. Akitoby, Sanjeev Gupta, A. Senhadji - How fiscal policy can support medium- to long-term growth | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 18 July 2015
Bernardin Akitoby, Sanjeev Gupta, Abdelhak Senhadji -- IMF Research staff -- There has been a heated debate about the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a countercyclical tool but little evidence on how it can support growth. This column shows that fiscal policy can lift medium- and long-term growth in both advanced and developing economies. But all fiscal reforms are not equal in their growth dividend. Successful reforms are often part of a broader reform package and can balance the growth-equity trade-off.
Instapaper  fiscal_policy  fiscal_space  economic_theory  Keynesian  New_Keynesian  macroeconomics  economic_models  economic_growth  economic_policy  reform-economic  inequality  unemployment  countercyclical_policy  from instapaper
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Arash Nekoei, Andrea Weber - Unemployment benefits and job match quality | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal 10 - July 2015
The generosity of unemployment insurance is often cited as a reason for long spells of joblessness. But this view neglects other important, and potentially positive, economic aspects of such programmes. Using Austrian data, this column presents evidence that unemployment insurance has a positive effect on the quality of jobs that recipients find. This can in turn have a positive effect on future tax revenues, and has implications for the debate on optimal insurance generosity.
Labor_markets  unemployment  employee_benefits  safety_net 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Rand Ghayad - US labour market: Broken with and without unemployment benefits | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 22 July 2013
Will US unemployment benefits help or hinder those out of work? Much recent economic theory suggests that benefits reduce people’s likelihood of getting work. This column presents new research that looks in detail at various types of unemployment – job loser, job leaver, new entrant, re-entrant – suggesting that there is a limit to the extent that unemployment benefits reduce the amount of effort put into searching for a new job. The increase in the unemployment rate relative to job openings will persist when unemployment benefit programmes expire.
US_economy  Great_Recession  Labor_markets  stagnation  unemployment  safety_net 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz - Monetary policy and financial inclusion | Money and Banking - June 2015
Central bankers usually steer clear of discussions about inequality. They view monetary policy as a tool for stabilizing the economy. For many central banks,… -- discusses trade-offs between inflation and unemployment that won't be constant but will vary by structure of financial system including access to credit by lower income and wealth classes, which will both effect impact of recessions on behavior of demand and financial channels through which monetary policy is supposed to work -- so inequal impact doesn't have to be a policy objective that the central bank worries about like the objectives of economic recovery, or nflation, but it will be highly relevant as a condition for meeting the primary objectives and the effectiveness of tools available
Instapaper  monetary_policy  financial_system  banking  zero-bound  inflation  unemployment  business_cycles  access_to_finance  from instapaper
june 2015 by dunnettreader
Ravi Balakrishnan and Juan Solé - Close But Not There Yet: Getting to Full Employment in the United States | IMFdirect May 2015
By Ravi Balakrishnan and Juan Solé (Version in Español) Last month’s report on U.S. jobs was disappointing, with far fewer jobs than expected added in March. A… Nice roundup of all the bits of data that show a lot more slack than headline unemployment rate suggests
US_economy  Labor_markets  unemployment  data  statistics  Instapaper  from instapaper
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Xavier Giroud, Holger M. Mueller - Firm Leverage and Unemployment during the Great Recession | NBER April 2015
NBER Working Paper No. 21076 -- We argue that firms’ balance sheets were instrumental in the propagation of shocks during the Great Recession. Using establishment-level data, we show that firms that tightened their debt capacity in the run-up (“high-leverage firms”) exhibit a significantly larger decline in employment in response to household demand shocks than firms that freed up debt capacity (“low-leverage firms”). In fact, all of the job losses associated with falling house prices during the Great Recession are concentrated among establishments of high-leverage firms. At the county level, we find that counties with a larger fraction of establishments belonging to high-leverage firms exhibit a significantly larger decline in employment in response to household demand shocks. Thus, firms’ balance sheets also matter for aggregate employment. -- paywall
paper  paywall  NBER  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  corporate_finance  leverage  unemployment  macroeconomics  economic_models  economic_shocks-propagation  networks-business  demand-side  housing  business_practices  business_cycles 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
William Lazonick - Stock buybacks: From retain-and reinvest to downsize-and-distribute | Brookings Institution - April 2015
Stock buybacks are an important explanation for both the concentration of income among the richest households and the disappearance of middle-class employment opportunities in the United States over the past three decades. Over this period, corporate resource-allocation at many, if not most, major U.S. business corporations has transitioned from “retain-and-reinvest” to “downsize-and-distribute,” says William Lazonick in a new paper.
paper  US_economy  capital_markets  capitalism  investment  R&D  corporate_governance  corporate_finance  buybacks  shareholder_value  short-termism  incentives-distortions  labor_share  productivity  productivity-labor_share  inequality  wages  unemployment  downloaded 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Alan Manning - Shifting the Balance of Power: Workers, Wages and Employers over the Next Parliament | Resolution Foundation - April 2015
Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics and Director of the Community Programme at the Centre for Economic Performance at the LSE -- 40 years ago an improving labour market and prices rising faster than wages would have led trade unions to march into the boardroom demanding higher wages and threatening strike action if those demands were not met. Pretty soon, union leaders would have been invited round to Number 10 for beer and sandwiches to be cajoled into wage moderation to prevent an inflationary spiral taking hold. A lot has changed in the past 40 years.These days the Prosecco remains in the fridge and David Cameron used a speech to the British Chambers of Commerce in February to urge pay rises for workers, a somewhat surprising sight. But, there is a simple explanation. Since the crisis began, the average British worker has suffered a fall in living standards deeper and longer than anything experienced for more than a generation. The recent drop in oil prices and the resulting lower inflation will offer some respite but not much. -- Comparing the situation now and 40 years ago, it is hard to escape the conclusion that there has been a fundamental shift in the balance of power from workers to employers and that perhaps this shift has gone too far and it is time to redress the balance somewhat. -- copied to Pocket
article  political_economy  UK_economy  labor_history  Labor_markets  unemployment  wages  profit  productivity  productivity-labor_share  inequality  unions  British_politics  standard_of_living  employers  working_class  competition  Pocket 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Rajiv Sethi: Innovation, Scaling, and the Industrial Commons - July 2010
When Yves Smith makes a strong reading recommendation, I usually take notice. Today she directed her readers to an article by Andy Grove calling for drastic changes in American policy towards innovation, scaling, and job creation in manufacturing. The piece is long, detailed and worth reading in full, but the central point is this: an economy that innovates prolifically but consistently exports its jobs to lower cost overseas locations will eventually lose not only its capacity for mass production, but eventually also its capacity for innovation: - interesting discussion in updates and comments
US_economy  US_politics  Labor_markets  unemployment  trade-policy  trade-theory  off-shoring  manufacturing  Innovation  technology  technology_transfer  industrial_policy 
march 2015 by dunnettreader
Josh Bevins - Macroeconomic effects of regulatory changes in economies with large output gaps: The ‘toxics rule’ as an example | Economic Policy Institute - 2012
This paper uses the “toxics rule” issued by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in December 2011 to sketch out a macroeconomic framework for thinking about the impact of regulatory changes on jobs. The paper’s major findings are: * (1) Even during normal economic times the effect of regulatory changes that increase the input cost of some businesses is most likely to shrink the measured “output gap” (the difference between what the economy is actually producing and what it could be producing if all resources were fully employed). * (2) During normal economic times, the effect of the downward pressure on output gaps will be fully offset by a Federal Reserve that is trying to maintain a constant inflation target. * (3) During times of significant economic slack, the downward pressure on the output gap caused by cost-raising regulatory changes is unlikely to be fully neutralized by a Federal Reserve that puts any weight at all on unemployment. * (4) When significant economic slack persists even when the interest rates controlled by the Federal Reserve are held at zero, the overall effect of cost-raising regulatory changes is almost surely expansionary. ... the list of neutral to benign macro effects continues -- downloaded pdf to Note
regulation-costs  regulation-environment  macroeconomics  monetary_policy  economic_growth  economic_models  unemployment  interest_rates  Fed  cost-benefit  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
John Irons and Isaac Shapiro - Report: Regulation, employment, and the economy: Fears of job loss are overblown | Economic Policy Institute - April 2011
After the first midterms debacle -- . In the first months since the new Congress convened, the House has held dozens of hearings designed to elicit criticisms of regulations, introduced legislation that would dramatically alter the regulatory process by requiring congressional approval of all major regulations, and passed a spending bill that would slash the funding levels of regulatory agencies and restrict their ability to enact rules covering areas such as greenhouse gas emissions. (..) opponents of regulation argue that agency rules are damaging to the economy in general and job generation in particular. Some say specific regulations will destroy millions of jobs and cite a study (critiqued later in this paper) purporting to show that regulations cost $1.75 trillion per year. Regulations are frequently discussed only in the context of their threat to job creation, while their role in protecting lives, public health, and the environment is ignored. This report reviews whether the evidence backs the perspective of regulatory opponents. The first section looks broadly at the effects of regulations, whether they play a useful role in the economy, and whether their overall benefits outweigh their overall costs. The second section assesses the theory and evidence for the assertion that regulations undermine jobs and the economy. The last section examines the kinds of studies that are discussed when regulations are being formulated; these studies, often cited in debates and therefore of great importance, tend to be prospective
estimates of the effects of proposed regulations. -- downloaded pdf to Note
US_economy  US_politics  Obama_administration  Congress  GOP  deregulation  cost-benefit  unemployment  business_influence  public_policy  public_goods  public_health  environment  climate  financial_regulation  US_government  regulation  regulation-environment  regulation-costs  common_good  commons  economic_sociology  economic_theory  economic_culture  statistics  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Full transcript: President Obama, Dec 4 2013 - Inequality and rolling back Reagan Revolution | The Washington Post
But starting in the late ‘70s, this social compact began to unravel.Technology made it easier for companies to do more with less, eliminating certain job occupations. A more competitive world led companies ship jobs anyway. And as good manufacturing jobs automated or headed offshore, workers lost their leverage; jobs paid less and offered fewer benefits. As values of community broke down and competitive pressure increased, businesses lobbied Washington to weaken unions and the value of the minimum wage. As the trickle-down ideology became more prominent, taxes were slashes for the wealthiest while investments in things that make us all richer, like schools and infrastructure, were allowed to wither. And for a certain period of time we could ignore this weakening economic foundation, in part because more families were relying on two earners, as women entered the workforce. We took on more debt financed by juiced-up housing market. But when the music stopped and the crisis hit, millions of families were stripped of whatever cushion they had left. And the result is an economy that’s become profoundly unequal and families that are more insecure. (..) it is harder today for a child born here in America to improve her station in life than it is for children in most of our wealthy allies, countries like Canada or Germany or France. They have greater mobility than we do, not less.(..) The combined trends of increased inequality and decreasing mobility pose a fundamental threat to the American dream, our way of life and what we stand for around the globe. And it is not simply a moral claim that I’m making here. There are practical consequences to rising inequality and reduced mobility. -- downloaded as pdf to Note
speech  Obama  inequality  supply-side  labor_share  business-ethics  norms  norms-business  morality-conventional  morality-Christian  utilitarianism  globalization  technology  US_foreign_policy  US_economy  US_politics  US_society  US_government  US_history  common_good  civic_virtue  economic_growth  economic_culture  distribution-income  distribution-wealth  unemployment  health_care  public_goods  public_opinion  public_policy  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Andrew Sprung - Reagan Revolution rollback | xpostfactoid - Jan 2015
Thanks largely to Piketty it's become increasingly clear that in the Reagan Revolution, middle class America sold its birthright for a mess of supply-side pottage. Dems willingness to credit GOP dogma -- raising taxes on high incomes and investment gains inhibits growth, deregulation spurs it -- are melting away. Post midterm losses, Dems are beginning to heighten rather than soft-pedal the policy contrasts between the parties. Wounded politically by perceptions that the ACA helps the poor at the expense of working people, they are looking for proposals attractive to the middle class. Emboldened by accelerating growth and employment gains, they are perhaps shedding inhibitions about leveling the playing field between workers and management. (..)To mess up my timeline a bit, Obama delivered a Pikettian narrative in Dec 2013 ..should have been a landmark speech on inequality (..) if he (and Dems) hadn't (tried to) protect their Senate majority. [In the Dec 2013 soeech] Obama zeroed in on policy choices. "As values of community broke down and competitive pressure increased, businesses lobbied Washington to weaken unions and the value of the minimum wage. As the trickle-down ideology became more prominent, taxes were slashes for the wealthiest while investments in things that make us all richer, like schools and infrastructure, were allowed to wither. And for a certain period of time we could ignore this weakening economic foundation (..) But when the music stopped and the crisis hit, millions of families were stripped of whatever cushion they had left. And the result is an economy that’s become profoundly unequal and families that are more insecure. -- terrific links roundup
US_economy  US_politics  Obama  Obama_administration  Reagan  supply-side  trickle-down  neoliberalism  inequality  middle_class  wages  wages-minimum  labor  labor_law  labor_share  labor_standards  Labor_markets  investment  executive_compensation  1-percent  infrastructure  education  education-higher  civic_virtue  common_good  Piketty  economic_growth  economic_culture  distribution-income  distribution-wealth  unemployment  health_care  public_goods  public_opinion  public_policy  elections  political_culture  political_economy  political_discourse  political_participation  Pocket 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Laurent Belsie - The Link between High Employment and Labor Market Fluidity | NBER Digest - Jan 2015
Declining rates of creative destruction and factor reallocation raise concerns about future productivity growth and youth employment. U.S. labor markets lost much of their fluidity well before the onset of the Great Recession, according to Labor Market Fluidity and Economic Performance (NBER Working Paper No. 20479). The economy's ability to move jobs quickly from shrinking firms to young, growing enterprises slowed after 1990. Job reallocation rates fell by more than a quarter. After 2000, the volume of hiring and firing - known as the worker reallocation rate - also dropped. The decline was broad-based, affecting multiple industries, states, and demographic groups. The groups that suffered the most were the less-educated and the young, particularly young men.
US_economy  economic_history  1990s  2000s  2010s  links  creative_destruction  labor_markets  unemployment  wages  competition  firm-theory  economic_growth 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Roger Farmer - Secular stagnation: a neo-paleo-Keynesian perspective - Jan 2015
Farmer distinguishes Alvin Hansen's 1938 (pre Samuelson synthesis) theory of secular stagnation as equilibrium of high unemployment from confused way it's been used since Summers reintroduced the term -/ "Contemporary accounts of secular stagnation, beginning with Larry Summers, confound two distinct ideas. The first, and this is Hansen’s meaning, is that a market economy, in the absence of counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies, may experience prolonged periods of high involuntary unemployment. The second, is that a market economy may experience a period of depressed productivity growth." -- Farmer diesn't see any clear evidence of downward shift in productivity - rate if GNP growth seems within pre-crisis pattern, but crisis produced a major drop in *lecel* of GNP, leaving a huge output gap that suggests the risk of a long-term higher unemployment level along the lines of Hansen's meaning.
unemployment  economic_theory  20thc  economic_growth  great_recession  21stc  secular  stagnation  economic_history  GNP  monetarism 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Kemal Derviş homes in on the key questions surrounding the nature and measurement of contemporary growth. - Project Syndicate
Slowly but surely, the debate about the nature of economic growth is entering a new phase. The emerging questions are sufficiently different from those of recent decades that one can sense a shift in the conceptual framework that will structure the discussion of economic progress – and economic policy – from now on.
economic_growth  political_economy  trchnology  innovation  stagnation  LDCs  Piletty  emergy  natural_resources  climate  inequality  labor  unemployment  automation  basic_income 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Home - Path to Full Employment | Project of Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
For most of the last few decades, the U.S. labor market has operated with considerable slack. Periods of full employment have been the exception, not the rule. In response, Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and previously Vice President Biden’s chief economic adviser, and the Center have begun a multiyear project to focus greater attention on the goal of reaching full employment and develop policy ideas to achieve this critical goal. To learn more about the project, visit our events page to watch our April 2 kick-off event at the National Press Club. To read a set of papers on policy ideas to get back to full employment, go to our papers’ page (this event was made possible thanks to a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation). -- Launched with big event and clutch of papers in April 2014 -- downloaded to Note pdf of Jared Bernstein's project overview paper -- as of October 2014 no new activity
US_economy  US_government  US_society  US_politics  Congress  Great_Recession  inequality  unemployment  labor  labor_law  labor_share  wages  wages-minimum  labor_standards  fiscal_policy  state_government  infrastructure  investment  downloaded  EF-add 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Ylan Q. Mui - How the Fed is trying to fill in the gaps of monetary policy - The Washington Post - Oct 2014
[T]he Fed in recent years has made a concerted effort to incorporate Main Street concerns into their considerations of macroeconomic policy. On Thursday, Yellen will meet with nonprofits and community developers in Chelsea that have received funding through an initiative at the Boston Fed to address some of the economy’s most intractable problems — from long-term unemployment to access to credit — on the ground level. “When you think about maximum employment, monetary policy can deal with the cyclical," Boston Fed President Eric S. Rosengren said in an interview Thursday. "If we were able to change the mindset in some of these cities, the employment picture in these cities would clearly be better.” In Chelsea, Yellen will tour a program called Connect, which focuses on financial security. ....The three-year-old program seems to be gaining traction where monetary policy cannot. Ann Houston, executive director of the Neighborhood Developers, one of the organizations involved in the project, said those in the program see a $400 median increase in monthly net income. The median increase in credit score is 35 points. “Increasingly, there’s this recognition that monetary policy is sort of a blunt instrument,” said David Erickson, director of the Center for Community Development at the San Francisco Fed, which has compiled extensive research on programs and places that have successfully reduced poverty. “In that case, you need a little bit more of a surgical tool, and that’s where community development comes in.”
US_economy  US_government  US_society  Fed  financial_access  inequality  unemployment  community_development  education-training  education-finance  monetary_policy  banking 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Nitzan, Jonathan - LSE Public Event: Can Capitalists Afford Recovery? -- Video and Paper (May 2014) | bnarchives
Presentation at the LSE Department of International Relations. 27 May 2014. -- Theorists and policymakers from all directions and of all persuasions remain obsessed with the prospect of recovery. For mainstream economists, the key question is how to bring about such a recovery. For heterodox political economists, the main issue is whether sustained growth is possible to start with. But there is a prior question that nobody seems to ask: can capitalists afford recovery in the first place? If we think of capital not as means of production but as a mode of power, we find that accumulation thrives not on growth and investment, but on unemployment and stagnation. And if accumulation depends on crisis, why should capitalists want to see a recovery? -- Video duration: 2:24 hours -- Keywords: crisis, differential accumulation, economic policy, economic theory, expectations, growth, income distribution, Keynesianism, Marxism, monetarism, neoclassical economics, profit, underconsumption -- Subjects: BN State & Government, BN Power, BN Region - North America, BN Business Enterprise, BN Value & Price, BN Crisis, BN Production, BN Macro, BN Conflict & Violence, BN Money & Finance, BN Ideology, BN Distribution, BN Methodology, BN Capital & Accumulation, BN Policy, BN Class, BN Labour, BN Growth -- links to LSE on YouTube -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  video  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  economic_growth  capital_as_power  capitalism-systemic_crisis  economic_theory  economic_models  macroeconomics  neoclassical_economics  Keynesian  Marxist  monetarism  monetary_policy  fiscal_policy  austerity  sovereign_debt  public_finance  public_policy  productivity  production  consumer_demand  underconsumption  investment  profit  productivity-labor_share  distribution-income  distribution-wealth  finance_capital  financialization  capitalization  accumulation  accumulation-differential  elites-self-destructive  elite_culture  ruling_class  class_conflict  Labor_markets  inequality  unemployment 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Dave Johnson - The Cost To Our Economy From Republican Obstruction And Sabotage | Campaign for America's Future - September 2014
After listing key filibusters -- What would it have meant for the economy and jobs to launch a post-stimulus effort to maintain and modernize our infrastructure? How about reversing the tax structure that pays companies to move jobs out of the country? How about equal pay for women? How about a minimum wage increase? How about hundreds of thousands of teachers and first responders going back to work? How about being able to organize into unions to fight for wages, benefits and safer working conditions? How about relief from crushing student loan debt? -- In the House GOP leadership has been following the “Hastert Rule” to obstruct bills that would win with a majority vote. -- So instead of looking at what has been blocked in the House, we should look at what has passed. What has passed is a record of economic sabotage. Noteworthy is the GOP “Path to Prosperity Budget” (“Ryan budget”), described as “Cuts spending & implements pro-growth reforms that boost job creation.” It dramatically cuts taxes on the rich. It privatizes Medicare. It cuts spending on infrastructure, health care for the poor, education, research, public-safety, and low-income programs. It turns Medicaid, food stamps, and other poverty programs into state block grants. And lo and behold, this GOP budget that passed the House cuts taxes and cuts funding for even maintaining – never mind modernizing – our vital infrastructure needs. This is a budget of economic sabotage. Other GOP House “jobs” bills, listed at Boehner’s “jobs” page include: -- horrifyingly awful policies with Orwellian titles or red meat specials -- special attention to keeping oil & gas subsidies flowing and eviserating regulation, especially EPA -- Johnson stresses, the voters are unaware of all this thanks in part to the MSM which is ballanced re political parties, pro business & anti labor, and guilty of mindlessly peddling what Wren-Lewis calls mediamacro. Good links
US_economy  US_politics  Congress  Great_Recession  GOP  unemployment  public_finance  public_goods  state_government  welfare  social_insurance  poverty  infrastructure  Obama_administration  health_care  women-rights  women-work  wages  fiscal_policy  fiscal_drag  taxes  1-percent  energy  climate  regulation-environment  R&D  Senate  House_of_Representatives  polarization  student_debt  education-finance  education-privatization  corporate_tax  labor_law  unions  trickle-down 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Charles Evans - Patience Is a Virtue When Normalizing Monetary Policy | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - September 2014
As I think about the process of normalizing policy, I conclude that today’s risk-management calculus says we should err on the side of patience in removing highly accommodative policy. We need to solidify our confidence that our ultimate exit from the zero lower bound will occur smoothly — and in a way that sustains our escape from it. A corollary to this is we should not shy away from policy prescriptions that generate forecasts of inflation that moderately overshoot our 2 percent target for a limited time. Such a policy strategy more properly balances expected costs and benefits. And it would leave me with much more confidence that inflation will not stall out below target once we start raising rates. I agree with Atlanta Fed President Lockhart in thinking that we ought to be “whites of their eyes” inflation fighters. The last thing we want to do is regress back into the ZLB. Indeed, such a relapse would be a sign there was something else going on that was preventing the economy from being as vibrant as we thought possible. To summarize, I am very uncomfortable with calls to raise our policy rate sooner than later. I favor delaying liftoff until I am more certain that we have sufficient momentum in place toward our policy goals. And I think we should plan for our path of policy rate increases to be shallow in order to be sure that the economy’s momentum is sustainable in the presence of less accommodative financial conditions. '- downloaded pdf to Note
US_economy  Fed  monetary_policy  unemployment  inflation  Phillips_curve  interest_rates  Labor_markets  wages  deleverage  financial_system  QE  Great_Depression  Eurozone  central_banks  downloaded  EF-add 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Michael T. Kiley - An Evaluation of the Inflationary Pressure Associated with Short- and Long-term Unemployment - FEDS 2014-28 | Federal Reserve Board
Abstract: In the years following 2009, long-term unemployment has been very elevated while inflation has fallen only moderately, raising the question of whether the long-term unemployed exert less downward pressure on prices than the short-term unemployed, perhaps because such potential workers are disconnected from the labor market. However, empirical evidence is mixed. This analysis demonstrates that the typical approach, using national data, is incapable of discriminating the inflationary pressure exerted by short and long-term unemployment because the series are highly correlated, making inference difficult given the short-span of data used in Phillips-curve estimation. However, application of more data, through the use of regional variation, can discriminate the independent influences of short-and long-term unemployment on price inflation. We present a model illustrating these issues and apply the model to data for U.S. metropolitan regions. We find that that short- and long-term unemployment exert equal downward pressure on price inflation. -- Keywords: Short-term unemployment, phillips curve -- didn't download
US_economy  Great_Recession  unemployment  inflation  prices  wages  macroeconomics  economic_models  statistics  Phillips_curve 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Long-term unemployed struggle as economy improves, Rutgers study finds - September 2014
National survey: 20 percent of workers laid off 5 years are still unemployed, seeking jobs – While the unemployment rate for people out of work for six months or less has returned to prerecession levels, the levels of unemployment for workers who remain jobless for more than six months is among the most persistent, negative effects of the Great Recession, according to a new national study at Rutgers. In fact, one in five workers laid off from a job during the last five years are still unemployed and looking for work, researchers from the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development found. "While the worst effects of the Great Recession are over for most Americans, the brutal realities of diminished living standards endure for the three million American workers who remain jobless years after they were laid off," said Professor and Heldrich Center Director Carl Van Horn, who co-authored the study with Professor Cliff Zukin of Rutgers' Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy. "These long-term unemployed workers have been left behind to fend for themselves as they struggle to pull their lives back together."
US_economy  Great_Recession  unemployment  mobility  inequality 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Janice Peterson - Welfare Reform and Inequality: The TANF and UI Programs | JSTOR: Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. 34, No. 2 (Jun., 2000), pp. 517-526
The threat was already well known that Clinton welfare reform gains were a result of the booming economy, still left beneficiaries in the working poor world, and would create major problems in an economic downturn -- especially since it reinforced the hierarchy of 20thC social support programs that devalued and discriminated against women's work, removed some safeguards for especially vulnerable poor women with children who had fragile attachment to the labor market, and failed to forsee perverse interaction between the employment requirements of TANF qualifications and eligibility for unemployment insurance. The article reviews literature already emerging on the destructive features of the program design - which were exacerbated in the Great Recession by block grants to states with pro-cyclical budget constraints and in Red States interested only in further reducing welfare rolls and recipients of unemployment insurance, and a Congress hijacked by the Tea Party antagonistic to any countercyclical fiscal policy, especially for poor and unemployed. Short article, didn't download
article  jstor  US_economy  US_politics  state_government  welfare  poverty  women-work  poor-working  unemployment  gender_gap  1990s  Clinton_Administration  Democrats  social_insurance 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Roy H. Grieve, ‘Right back where we started from’ | Real-World Economics Review Blog September 2014
Roy H. Grieve, “‘Right back where we started from’: from ‘the Classics’ to Keynes, and back again”, real-world economics review, issue no. 68, 21 August 2014, pp. 41-61, http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue68/Grieve68.pdf -- We have indeed come round in a circle. The whole vision of the working of the macrosystem presented, in terms of the AD/AS model, by far too many contemporary textbooks, is essentially pre-Keynesian. Monetary spending may fluctuate, but whether or not such fluctuations affect employment and output is said to depend on reactions affecting real wages. Slow adjustment of money wages to price changes is held to account for cyclical variations in employment and output. With respect to the longer term, it is presumed that real wages return to their proper full-employment level. There are then no obstacles on the side of demand to prevent re-establishment of the ‘natural’ (full employment) level of activity. The pale shadow of Keynesian theory in the ADAS model – the AD curve – has nothing to do with the values of output and employment at equilibrium, only with the price level. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  economic_theory  economic_models  macroeconomics  neoclassical_economics  Keynes  Keynesianism  Labor_markets  wages  unemployment  prices  inflation  deflation  real_economy  economic_growth  business_cycles  equilibrium  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
theAIRnet.org - Home
The Academic-Industry Research Network – theAIRnet – is a private, 501(c)(3) not-for-profit research organization devoted to the proposition that a sound understanding of the dynamics of industrial development requires collaboration between academic scholars and industry experts. We engage in up-to-date, in-depth, and incisive research and commentary on issues related to industrial innovation and economic development. Our goal is to understand the ways in which, through innovation, businesses and governments can contribute to equitable and stable economic growth – or what we call “sustainable prosperity”.
website  economic_growth  industry  technology  Innovation  green_economy  development  business  business-and-politics  capitalism  global_economy  public-private_partnerships  public_policy  public_health  public_goods  urban_development  health_care  IP  Labor_markets  wages  unemployment  education-training  sustainability  financial_system  corporate_citizenship  corporate_governance  corporate_finance  CSR  firms-theory  management  plutocracy  MNCs  international_political_economy  human_capital  OECD_economies  emerging_markets  supply_chains  R&D  common_good  1-percent  inequality  working_class  work-life_balance  workforce  regulation  regulation-harmonization  incentives  stagnation 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
WEF's Global Risk Report | Silvia Merler at Bruegel.org - September 2014
Last week, the World Economic Forum (WEF) published its Global Risk Report (GRR) for 2014/15. The report is an exercise conducted by the WEF since 2006, but this year’s issue is particularly interesting because it adopts an historical perspective, offering insights on how the world has changed in respondents’ eyes and concerns. The GRR assesses risks that are global in nature and have the potential to cause significant negative impact across entire countries and industries if they take place over a time frame of up to 10 years. 31 such risks are identified in the report and grouped under five categories – economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological. *-* Economic Risks include fiscal and liquidity crises, failure of a major financial mechanism or institution, oil-price shocks, chronic unemployment and failure of physical infrastructure on which economic activity depends. *-* Environmental Risks encompass both natural disasters and man-made risks such as collapsing ecosystems, freshwater shortages, nuclear accidents and failure to mitigate or adapt to climate change. *-* Geopolitical Risks cover politics, diplomacy, conflict, crime and global governance. These risks range from terrorism, disputes over resources and war to governance being undermined by corruption, organized crime and illicit trade. *-* Societal Risks are intended to capture risks related to social stability – such as severe income disparities, food crises and dysfunctional cities – and public health, such as pandemics, antibiotic-resistant bacteria and the rising burden of chronic disease. *-* Technological Risks covers major risks related to the centrality of information and communication technologies to individuals, businesses and governments (such as cyber attacks, infrastructure disruptions and data loss). -- excellent network chart showing how risks are interrelated within and across categories -- downloaded pdf to Note
report  global_economy  global_governance  global_system  international_political_economy  international_finance  financial_crisis  climate  energy  water  inequality  unemployment  geopolitics  infrastructure  public_health  public_goods  urban_development  urbanization  downloaded 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
EU to DO 2015-2019: Memos to the new EU leadership | André Sapir, Guntram B. Wolff, Zsolt Darvas, Silvia Merler, Nicolas Véron, Mario Mariniello, Carlo Altomonte, Reinhilde Veugelers, Rainer Münz, Suparna Karmakar, Georg Zachmann and Jim O‘Neill at B
‘THERE IS NOW A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY that this crisis will be remembered as the occasion when Europe irretrievably lost ground, both economically and politically’. This was the starting sentence of our memos to the new EU leadership five years ago. Five years later, it is fair to say that this possibility has become a reality. Unemployment has reached record levels and growth has disappointed. Meanwhile, the world outside the EU has continued to change rapidly. Emerging markets in particular have increased their weight in the global economy and in decision making. The new EU leadership – the president of the European Commission and his team of commissioners, and the presidents of the European Council and of the European Parliament – will have to address pressing challenges. Despite the significant steps taken by Europe – among them the creation of a European Stability Mechanism, the start of a banking union, the strengthening of fiscal rules and substantial structural reforms in crisis countries – results for citizens are still unsatisfactory. It is impossible to summarise all the memos in this volume but a common theme is the need to focus on pro-growth policies, on a deepening of the single market, on better and more global trade integration. Reverting to national protectionism, more state aid for national or European champions – as frequently argued for by national politicians – will not be the right way out of the crisis. On the contrary, more Europe and deeper economic integration in some crucial areas, such as energy, capital markets and the digital economy, would greatly support the feeble recovery. But in other areas, less Europe would also be a highly welcome signal that the new European leadership is serious about subsidiarity. Internal re-organisation of the European Commission to ensure that it better delivers would also be welcome. -- downloaded pdf to Note
report  EU  Eurozone  Great_Recession  economic_growth  unemployment  capital_markets  energy  financial_regulation  banking  sovereign_debt  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Capitalist Revolutionary — Roger E. Backhouse, Bradley W. Bateman | Harvard University Press
The Great Recession of 2008 restored John Maynard Keynes to prominence. After decades when the Keynesian revolution seemed to have been forgotten, the great British theorist was suddenly everywhere. The NYT asked, “What would Keynes have done?” The FT wrote of “the undeniable shift to Keynes.” Le Monde pronounced the economic collapse Keynes’s “revenge.” Two years later, following bank bailouts and Tea Party fundamentalism, Keynesian principles once again seemed misguided or irrelevant to a public focused on ballooning budget deficits. In this readable account, Backhouse and Bateman elaborate the misinformation and caricature that have led to Keynes’s repeated resurrection and interment since his death in 1946. Keynes’s engagement with social and moral philosophy and his membership in the Bloomsbury Group of artists and writers helped to shape his manner of theorizing. Though trained as a mathematician, he designed models based on how specific kinds of people (such as investors and consumers) actually behave—an approach that runs counter to the idealized agents favored by economists at the end of the century. Keynes wanted to create a revolution in the way the world thought about economic problems, but he was more open-minded about capitalism than is commonly believed. He saw capitalism as essential to a society’s well-being but also morally flawed, and he sought a corrective for its main defect: the failure to stabilize investment. Keynes’s nuanced views, the authors suggest, offer an alternative to the polarized rhetoric often evoked by the word “capitalism” in today’s political debates.
books  kindle-available  intellectual_history  20thC  entre_deux_guerres  economic_theory  macroeconomics  Great_Depression  gold_standard  public_finance  unemployment  capitalism  moral_philosophy  political_economy  economic_culture  economic_reform  economic_policy  probability  behavioral_economics  microfoundations  neoclassical_economics  Keynes  Keynesianism  Great_Recession  investment 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Coen Teulings, Richard Baldwin - Secular stagnation: Facts, causes, and cures – a new Vox eBook | vox 10 September 2014
The CEPR Press eBook on secular stagnation has been viewed over 80,000 times since it was published on 15 August 2014. -- Six years after the Crisis and the recovery is still anaemic despite years of zero interest rates. Is ‘secular stagnation’ to blame? Introduction - Coen Teulings and Richard Baldwin **--** I. Opening the debate -- 1. Reflections on the ‘New Secular Stagnation Hypothesis’, Laurence H Summers. **--** II. Three issues: Potential growth, effective demand, and sclerosis -- 2. Secular stagnation: A review of the issues, Barry Eichengreen -- 3. The turtle’s progress: Secular stagnation meets the headwinds, Robert J Gordon -- 4 Four observations on secular stagnation, Paul Krugman. -- 5. Secular joblessness, Edward L Glaeser. **--** III. Further on potential growth. -- 6. Secular stagnation? Not in your life - Joel Mokyr. -- 7 Secular stagnation: US hypochondria, European disease?, Nicholas Crafts. **--** IV. Further on effective demand. -- 8. A prolonged period of low real interest rates?, Olivier Blanchard, Davide Furceri and Andrea Pescatori. -- 9. On the role of safe asset shortages in secular stagnation, Ricardo J Caballero and Emmanuel Farhi. -- 10. A model of secular stagnation, Gauti B. Eggertsson and Neil Mehrotra. -- 11. Balance sheet recession is the reason for secular stagnation, Richard C Koo. -- 12. Monetary policy cannot solve secular stagnation alone
Guntram B Wolff. **--** V. Further on sclerosis -- 13. Secular stagnation: A view from the Eurozone, Juan F. Jimeno, Frank Smets and Jonathan Yiangou -- downloaded pdf to Note
books  etexts  kindle-available  economic_history  18thC  19thC  20thC  21stC  economic_theory  economic_growth  Great_Recession  stagnation  international_political_economy  capitalism  financialization  productivity  investment  technology  Labor_markets  unemployment  demand-side  supply-side  infrastructure  welfare_state  sovereign_debt  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  central_banks  leverage  risk  uncertainty  macroeconomics  macroprudential_policies  international_monetary_system  global_economy  global_imbalance  interest_rates  profit  wages  Eurozone  US_economy  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Danielle Kurtzleben - Why you need a bachelor's degree to be a secretary today - Vox September 2014
According to a new report from labor market research firm Burning Glass, firms are "up-credentialing": asking for bachelor's degrees for jobs that traditionally have not demanded a diploma. Taken with other recent findings about the causes behind weakness in the labor market, this tells a lot about why employers just don't value a college degree like they used to. Altogether, you could see this report as a signal of a skills gap — that there are too many English majors out there and not enough engineering majors, meaning the people who are good at dissecting poetry will just end up in low-skill jobs. But it may also suggest a newfound laziness among employers. It's not just that firms are using bachelor's degrees as a(n imperfect) signal of a good worker; they also may be looking for ready-made workers who can perform the job duties on Day 1, with minimal training or development. A bachelor's might signal not just higher quality to an employer but lower maintenance as well (rightly or wrongly). "Employers are increasingly keen on hiring college grads," says Matt Sigelman, CEO of Burning Glass. "But employers really are looking for people who can hit the ground running." And that means a big problem for people just entering the labor force, as Cappelli writes in a recent Washington Post column. "The real challenge we face is that if everyone is hiring for the ability to do a job, rather than for the potential to do it well, how does anyone get that initial experience?"
US_economy  Labor_markets  unemployment  skills  mobility  inequality  middle_class  college  education-higher  education-training 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Suzanne J. Konzelmann - The political economics of austerity | Cambridge Journal of Economics 2013
Birkbeck, University of London. -- The 2007/08 financial crisis has reignited the debate about economic austerity. With the aim of understanding why a government would pursue such a policy in the current context of persistent economic recession, this article traces the social, political and economic developments that have together shaped the evolution of ideas about austerity, from the earliest theorising by the classical political economists some 300 years ago. Throughout the historical narrative, important analytical themes revolve around the arguments used to justify austerity—notably appeals to ethics and morality (reinforced by misleading analogies drawn between government budgets and the accounts of firms and households). These include concerns about inflation and the observed relationship between inflation and unemployment; ‘Ricardian equivalence’ and ‘non-Keynesian’ effects of austerity; and the correlation between public debt levels and economic growth. The class analytics of austerity—who bears the burden of austerity and who benefits—and the process by which alternative ideas penetrate the mainstream and reconstitute the conventional wisdom are also important analytical themes. -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  intellectual_history  political_economy  economic_theory  economic_sociology  economic_policy  17thC  18thC  19thC  20thC  21stC  Great_Recession  austerity  business_cycles  business-and-politics  ideology  macroeconomics  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  inflation  unemployment  moral_economy  historical_sociology  class_conflict  public_opinion  public_finance  sovereign_debt  economic_growth  debt  debtors  creditors  intermediation  Labor_markets  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
The Reshoring Initiative Blog: The Reshoring Initiative's Recommendations for the Federal Government
The economic bleeding due to increasing offshoring has stopped. The rate of new reshoring is now equal to the rate of new offshoring. The challenge is now to reshore the 3 to 4 million manufacturing jobs that are still offshored. Recent reshoring announcements and successes by Apple, Caterpillar and GE and analysis of the economics of reshoring suggest that we could raise the net reshoring rate from the current zero jobs/year to 50,000. For the U.S. to achieve its full reshoring potential requires a continuation of offshore cost trends, improvement in U.S. competitiveness and changes in companies’ sourcing decision metrics. The U.S. government can influence all of these factors with minimal expenditure -- most recommendations for Dept of Commerce, especially integrating their reshoring tools and materials in their programs - also some Dept of Education extending encouragement of community college training initiatives - extend use of tool for calculating full costs of off-shoring as e.g. condition of federal contracts -- big issue currency manipulation by e.g. China at end of list is different in kind from the sorts of reorientation or extension of government programs or public-private_partnerships
US_government  US_economy  manufacturing  Labor_markets  exports  off-shoring  business  SMEs  unemployment 
august 2014 by dunnettreader
Friedrich August von Hayek - Prize Lecture: The Pretence of Knowledge -- Nobel Prize 1974
MLA style: "Friedrich August von Hayek - Prize Lecture: The Pretence of Knowledge". Nobelprize.org. Nobel Media AB 2014. Web. 9 Aug 2014. <http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1974/hayek-lecture.html> -- uses stagflation to attack demand side theories with a hint of liquidationism -- more interesting is his take on Popper and limits to positivism and quantitative methodologies -- can theirize certain patterns and examine empirical evidence re those patterns, but can't predict quantitative outcomes -- though stresses complexity, seems to be an issue of incomplete data (by definition inaccessible since it's in the heads of masses of heterogeneous agents reacting to their own, constantly changing, limited information) rather than emergent properties and complexity dynamics
intellectual_history  20thC  post-WWII  social_sciences-post-WWII  economic_theory  markets  information-markets  Labor_markets  unemployment  inflation  economic_policy  demand  empiricism  uncertainty  epistemology  positivism  quantitative_methods  philosophy_of_science  philosophy_of_social_science  Popper  Hayek  determinism  emergence  equilibrium  complexity  EF-add  scientism  scientific_method  sociology_of_knowledge 
august 2014 by dunnettreader
Talking Manufacturing and Its Wage Premium | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
–Manufacturing has the potential to grow beyond its current size and employ more people in decent jobs, but we’ve got to get the policy right. –As per Susan Houseman’s work (link), manufacturing productivity is significantly overstated for a number of reasons , implying that the agriculture analogy is incorrect. For one, it’s largely driven by one relatively small sub-sector: the production of computers and electronic products. –Second, Houseman points to two problems with the way we count inputs that also biases up estimates of manufacturing productivity. First, we’re undercounting the quantity of imported intermediate inputs and thus overcounting value added. Second, when manufacturers employ workers from outside the sector, say from Manpower-type staffing services, that biases down measured sectoral labor inputs and further biases up value added. –Even in the highly productive computer sector, productivity-induced job loss is not obvious. Houseman again: “Productivity growth also may reflect improvements to product design that result from research and development activities. ... The reason employment in electronic computer manufacturing has declined by 41 percent since 2000…is not because the assembly process has been automated but because most computer assembly has moved to Asia.” –Despite rumors to the contrary, manufacturing still pays better than other jobs for workers with similar characteristics.
US_economy  productivity  manufacturing  wages  off-shoring  technology  tech  R&D  unemployment  statistics  links  EF-add 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Paul Beaudry, Dana Galizia, Franck Portier - Reconciling Hayek's and Keynes' views of recessions | vox , 1 June 2014
Stating the obvious but they've got a model with numbers and charts -- Hayek viewed recessions as working out excessive investments; Keynes viewed them as demand shortages. This column argues that they may not be as mutually exclusive as many think. Recessions may reflect periods of liquidation but this may be associated with inefficient adjustment involving unemployment and precautionary savings. Simulative policy may be desirable even if it delays the full recovery.
paper  economic_theory  economic_models  macroeconomics  economic_growth  investment  credit  Great_Recession  unemployment  Keynes  Hayek  downloaded 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Roger E. A. Farmer Farewell to the natural rate: Why unemployment persists | vox , 6 January 2010
Most policymakers subscribe to the existence of a natural rate of unemployment. This column provides a visual history of unemployment, vacancies, and inflation in the US and says there is no natural rate. It suggests the economy can rest in any equilibrium on the Beveridge curve, as decided by the confidence of households and firms that pins down asset values.
paper  economic_theory  economic_models  macroeconomics  unemployment  equilibrium  Great_Recession 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Suresh Naidu - Capital Eats the World | Jacobin May 2014
A first step could be a multisector model with both a productive sector and an extractive, rent-seeking outlet for investment, so that the rate of return on capital has the potential to be unanchored from the growth of the economy. This model could potentially do a better job of explaining r > g in a world where capital has highly profitable opportunities in rent-seeking ....More fundamentally, a model that started with the financial and firm-level institutions underneath the supply and demand curves for capital, rather than blackboxing them in production and utility functions, could illuminate complementarities among the host of other political demands that would claw back the share taken by capital and lower the amount paid out as profits before the fiscal system gets its take. This is putting meat on what Brad Delong calls the “wedge” between the actual and warranted rate of profit. -- We need even more and even better economics to figure out which of these may get undone via market responses and which won’t, and to think about them jointly with the politics that make each feasible or not. While Piketty’s book diagnoses the problem of capital’s voracious appetite, it would require a different kind of model to take our focus off the nominal quantities registered by state fiscal systems, and instead onto the broader distribution of political power in the world economy.
books  reviews  kindle-available  Piketty  political_economy  economic_theory  heterodox_economics  neoclassical_economics  economic_models  economic_growth  wealth  capital  finance_capital  capitalism  labor  Labor_markets  unemployment  markets_in_everything  tax_havens  investment  investors  savings  inheritance  profit  corporate_governance  corporate_citizenship  inequality  technology  1-percent  rent-seeking  rentiers  class_conflict  oligarchy  taxes  productivity  corporate_finance  property  property_rights  neoliberalism 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Noah McCormack - Friends without Benefits | Blog | The Baffler
Zappos has apparently decided it is no longer good enough to be a qualified hire who is interested in the job. An interested applicant must also spend unremunerated time pretending to engage in virtual social relationships with existing employees. The American economy has become so warped that it now appears reasonable to a subsidiary of a leading public company to require people who may never be hired to spent large amounts of time pretending to be friends with people with whom they may never work. This represents the convergence of at least three disturbing trends in the current American economy: the long-term unemployment of large numbers of people and the consequent power given to any company which is hiring; the technology industry’s revival of old prejudices under catchy new names; and the way that technology increasingly erodes any sense that our work selves are merely a component of our lives, rather than the entirety of our existence.
US_society  unemployment  Labor_markets  social_media  employers  power  labor  inequality  markets_in_everything  discrimination  work  work-life_balance 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Frances Coppola - Categorising the poor | Pieria May 2014
We should also stop trying to decide whether someone “deserves” social support. We have been trying to distinguish between the “deserving” and “undeserving” poor for over five hundred years, and we are no better able to make that judgement now than we were in the fourteenth century, or the sixteenth, or the nineteenth. We inevitably end up denying support to those who desperately need it. Let us give up this fruitless attempt to judge people's motives. Simply provide everyone with a basic income so that they can afford to live, then let them get on with whatever they want to do.
economic_history  British_history  British_politics  Poor_Laws  unemployment  Labor_markets  wages  welfare  14thC  16thC  17thC  18thC  19thC  21stC  economic_reform  EF-add 
may 2014 by dunnettreader
EconoSpeak: Inequality and Sabotage: Piketty, Veblen and Kalecki (for anne at Economist's View)
Nearly a century ago, Thorstein Veblen offered insights into this mechanism in his The Engineers and the Price System. To Veblen r>g (although he didn't use that term) was a strategy pursued by business, not simply a statistical finding. As Veblen points out, "this is matter of course, and notorious. But it is not a topic on which one prefers to dwell." -- Kalecki outlined three categories of business objection to a full employment by government spending: "(i) dislike of government interference in the problem of employment as such; (ii) dislike of the direction of government spending... (iii) dislike of the social and political changes resulting from the maintenance of full employment." It is the first and third of these objections that have the most direct bearing on the issue of r>g -- There are different modes of efficiency and those differences result in different effects on the rate of return to capital. In other words, there are r>g efficiencies and there are r<g efficiencies. An example of an r>g efficiency would be a new machine that uses less fuel and less labour to produce a given amount of output. An example of an r<g efficiency would be a reduction in the length of the standard working day that improves worker productivity by reducing fatigue and increasing overall well being. Both are examples of efficiencies but they differ as to whom the benefit of the efficiency gain primarily accrues.
US_economy  US_history  19thC  20thC  Great_Depression  economic_history  economic_growth  political_economy  capital  capitalism  labor  Labor_markets  wages  unemployment  consumer_demand  profit  investment  unions  Veblen  Kalecki  productivity  inequality  EF-add 
march 2014 by dunnettreader
Michael Pettis - Economic consequences of income inequality - March 2014
Back to basics and the undercinsumption model that shows why it's necessary to save capitalism from itself -- I will again quote Mariner Eccles, from his 1933 testimony to Congress, in which he was himself quoting with approval an unidentified economist, probably William Trufant Foster. In his testimony he said:

It is utterly impossible, as this country has demonstrated again and again, for the rich to save as much as they have been trying to save, and save anything that is worth saving. They can save idle factories and useless railroad coaches; they can save empty office buildings and closed banks; they can save paper evidences of foreign loans; but as a class they cannot save anything that is worth saving, above and beyond the amount that is made profitable by the increase of consumer buying.

It is for the interests of the well-to-do – to protect them from the results of their own folly – that we should take from them a sufficient amount of their surplus to enable consumers to consume and business to operate at a profit. This is not “soaking the rich”; it is saving the rich. Incidentally, it is the only way to assure them the serenity and security which they do not have at the present moment.
Great_Recession  Great_Depression  economic_history  economic_theory  savings  investment  consumer_demand  unemployment  global_economy  international_political_economy  trade-policy  trade-theory  Eurozone  China  Germany  inequality  EF-add 
march 2014 by dunnettreader
Lord Byron's Speech - debate in the House of Lords - 1812 Frame Breaking Act
This speech was given by Lord Byron in the debate in the House of Lords on the 1812 Frame Breaking Act. A week later, in a letter to a friend Byron wrote, “I spoke very violent sentences with a sort of modest impudence, abused everything and everybody, put the Lord Chancellor very much out of humour, and if I may believe what I hear, have not lost any character in the experiment”.
etexts  British_history  British_politics  economic_history  social_history  19thC  Industrial_Revolution  technology  Labor_markets  poverty  unemployment  Byron  lower_orders  criminal_justice  judiciary  Parliament  House_of_Lords  George_III  Napoleonic_Wars 
march 2014 by dunnettreader
E. A. J. Johnson: Unemployment and Consumption: The Mercantilist View - JSTOR: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 46, No. 4 (Aug., 1932), pp. 698-719
I. Mercantilists not desirous of mere numbers, 698.--Importance of employment, 700.--Remedies for idleness: provision of employment, 702; corrective and punitive legislation, 705.--II. Condemnation of luxury, 708.--Means of curbing it: sumptuary laws, 712; taxation, 713; moral suasion, 713.--Defense of luxury, 714.--Hume's views, 716.--Conclusions, 718.
article  jstor  economic_history  economic_theory  political_economy  trade-theory  trade-policy  mercantilism  commerce  luxury  unemployment  wages  taxes  economic_culture  17thC  18thC  British_history  downloaded  EF-add 
december 2013 by dunnettreader
Maria Pia Paganelli, review - Donald Rutherford: In the Shadow of Adam Smith: Founders of Scottish Economics, 1700-1900 | EH.net
Donald Rutherford, In the Shadow of Adam Smith: Founders of Scottish Economics, 1700-1900. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012. vii + 344 pp. $40 (paperback), ISBN: 978-0-230-25210-3. - not on Kindle

Reviewed for EH.Net by Maria Pia Paganelli, Department of Economics, Trinity University. Smith is generally such an immense figure that we may be tempted to think of him as the only voice of eighteenth century Scotland as far as economics is concerned. Attempts to moderate Smith?s grandeur remind us that he may have just systematized previous knowledge. Rutherford offers us the context in which Smith?s presence grew and his legacy developed. He offers us insight into the wide economic knowledge that Smith used (or did not use), added to (or not), and of which he is (just a) part.

The scholarship present in the book is remarkable, even more so because the book is organized by topic, rather than by time or by authors. The topics covered are trade (international trade, exchange economy, value); money (functions of money, paper credit, banking); public finance (functions of government, taxation, national debt); condition of the people (population, property rights and rent, profits and wages, poverty); condition of the economy (economic growth, economic development); and economic ideology (natural liberty, socialism). And to this, Rutherford adds an appendix with biographical sketches of the major Scottish writers.
books  reviews  intellectual_history  economic_history  18thC  19thC  Scotland  Scottish_Enlightenment  Smith  Hutcheson  economic_theory  political_philosophy  moral_philosophy  political_economy  trade-theory  poverty  population  Poor_Laws  unemployment  EF-add 
december 2013 by dunnettreader
Simon Wren-Lewis - mainly macro: Stages of Economic Recovery in the UK - Nov 2013
Lots of links -- Presentation re 3 stages of economic recovery and why UK stalled for 3 years in not getting Stage 2 bounce back growth due to austerity after returning to growth in 2010 - and fears won't reach Stage 3, maintenance of high growth for long period to return to pre recession productive capacity trend line. Banks as a central worry

-- quote-- So answering the productivity puzzle is the key to knowing what kind of recovery we will have. My suspicion, shared by others at the Bank of England and elsewhere, is that some of the answer is to be found back where the recession began – with UK banks. Bank lending to firms is important in increasing productivity, because it allows the productive firms to expand (at home and overseas), and the new start ups to displace the older, less efficient firms. So when bank lending collapsed in the recession, productivity collapsed. If banks start lending again to these new and more productive (but also more risky) firms, we may be able to make up a good deal of that lost ground......

So how are we with fixing the banks? The honest answer is I do not know, but let me end with a concern. So this is a recession created by banks, and there is a real danger that the power banks have over governments, and this government in particular, may mean we never make up the ground we have lost.
21stC  UK_economy  Great_Recession  banking  financialization  financial_regulation  rent-seeking  risk  austerity  productivity  unemployment  wages  capital  investment  links  EF-add 
december 2013 by dunnettreader
The ideal welfare system is a basic income | Adam Smith Institute Nov 2013
Now showing up in the quasi-libertarian Right -- Like the current benefits system, this would provide a safety net. But ‘benefits traps’, where people lose as much in benefits as they earn from work, would be eliminated. A basic income system like this would be at least as clear as the PAYE income tax system is, and substantially clearer than the current benefits system. The dog’s breakfast of welfare schemes that currently exist – all to address the symptoms of poverty, rather than the root – would be abolished, and with it the jumble of unanticipated and often undiscernable interactions between schemes that lead to perverse outcomes.

Best of all, a basic income is the least paternalistic welfare scheme possible. Instead of pushing would-be computer programmers into work as Poundland assistants, a scheme like this would leave decisions entirely up to the individuals involved. The discovery process that each of us is engaged in would continue, and now without mass decision-making by a central state authority.
21stC  public_policy  welfare  poverty  taxes  safety_net  unemployment  health_care 
december 2013 by dunnettreader
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