dunnettreader + paper   357

Paul Krugman Looks Back at the Last Twenty Years of the Macroeconomic Policy Debate
Everybody interested in macroeconomics or macroeconomic policy should know this topic backwards and forwards by heart. My problem is that I do not see how I can…
paper  downloaded  macroeconomics  from instapaper
february 2018 by dunnettreader
Josiah Ober, Barry R. Weingast - Fortifications and Democracy in the Ancient Greek World :: SSRN - Oct 2017
In the modern world, access-limiting fortification walls are not typically regarded as promoting democracy. But in Greek antiquity, increased investment in fortifications was correlated with the prevalence and stability of democracy. This paper sketches the background conditions of the Greek city-state ecology, analyzes a passage in Aristotle’s Politics, and assesses the choices of Hellenistic kings, Greek citizens, and urban elites, as modeled in a simple game. The paper explains how city walls promoted democracy and helps to explain several other puzzles: why Hellenistic kings taxed Greek cities at lower than expected rates; why elites in Greek cities supported democracy; and why elites were not more heavily taxed by democratic majorities. The relationship between walls, democracy, and taxes promoted continued economic growth into the late classical and Hellenistic period (4th-2nd centuries BCE), and ultimately contributed to the survival of Greek culture into the Roman era, and thus modernity. We conclude with a consideration of whether the walls-democracy relationship holds in modernity.
Keywords: Democracy, Ancient Greece, Athens, Walls and Democracy, Taxation, War
elites-political_influence  Hellenistic_era  democracy  SSRN  taxes  paper  community  ancient_Greece  majoritarian  borders 
november 2017 by dunnettreader
Trade Agreements as Vectors for the Nagoya Protocol's Implementation | Centre for International Governance Innovation - 2017
A growing number of trade agreements include provisions related to access to genetic resources and the sharing of the benefits that arise out of their utilization. This paper maps the distribution and the diversity of these provisions. It identifies
 a great variety of provisions regarding sovereignty over genetic resources, the protection of traditional knowledge, prior informed consent, the disclosure of origin in patent applications and conditions for bioprospecting activities. It also finds that some recent trade agreements provide specific measures designed to facilitate the implementation of access and benefit-sharing (ABS) provisions, including measures related to technical assistance, transparency and dispute settlements. Thus,
 it appears that trade negotiations can become
 vectors for the implementation of ABS obligations stemming from the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Nagoya Protocol on Access
 to Genetic Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits Arising from their Utilization.
 The integration of ABS commitments into trade agreements, however, varies greatly, depending
 on the countries involved. While Latin American countries have played a pioneering role, Canada and the United States still lag behind. The most exemplary ABS standards are not yet widely used, perhaps because they remain little known. These provisions deserve greater attention and should be integrated more widely into international trade agreements.
trade-agreements  genetic_resources  bioprospecting  genetics  IP  paper  Evernote  downloaded  sovereignty  biodiversity  biology  pharma 
july 2017 by dunnettreader
Neil Cummins - Longevity and the Rise of the West: Lifespans of the European Elite, 800-1800 (2014)
Longevity and the Rise of the West: Lifespans of the European Elite, 800-1800
I analyze the age at death of 121,524 European nobles from 800 to 1800. Longevity began increasing long before 1800 and the Industrial Revolution, with marked increases around 1400 and again around 1650. Declines in violence contributed to some of this increase, but the majority must reflect other changes in individual behavior. The areas of North-West Europe which later witnessed the Industrial Revolution achieved greater longevity than the rest of Europe even by 1000 AD. The data suggest that the `Rise of the West' originates before the Black Death.
Downloaded WP version via iPhone to DBOX
lifestyle  16thC  10thC  13thC  14thC  17thC  11thC  paper  medieval_history  economic_history  life_expectancy  social_history  downloaded  12thC  elites  warrior_class  feudalism  18thC  British_history  nobles  wealth  Western_Europe  15thC  demography  9thC  landowners 
january 2017 by dunnettreader
Brad DeLong - link to WP - Robert Allen (2004): Progress and Poverty in Early Modern Europe
Robert Allen (2004): Progress and Poverty in Early Modern Europe: "At the end of the middle ages, the urban, manufacturing core of Europe was on the Mediterranean with an important offshoot in Flanders... -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
improvement  development  urbanization  social_history  Europe-Early_Modern  paper  economic_history  inequality  poverty  progress  downloaded  trade  economic_growth 
january 2017 by dunnettreader
Emmanuel Saez - Taxing the Rich More: Preliminary Evidence from the 2013 Tax Increase (Nov 2016) | NBER Working Papers
Taxing the Rich More: Preliminary Evidence from the 2013 Tax Increase
Emmanuel Saez
NBER Working Paper No. 22798 - Issued in November 2016
This paper provides preliminary evidence on behavioral responses to taxation around the 2013 tax increase that raised top marginal tax rates on capital income by about 9.5 points and on labor income by about 6.5 points. Using published tabulated tax statistics from the Statistics of Income division of the IRS, we find that reported top 1% incomes were significantly higher in 2012 than in 2013, implying a large short-run elasticity of reported income with respect to the net-of-tax rate in excess of one. This large short-run elasticity is due to income retiming for tax avoidance purposes and is particularly high for realized capital gains and dividends, and highest at the very top of the income distribution. However, comparing 2011 and 2015 top incomes uncovers only a small medium-term response to the tax increase as top income shares resumed their upward trend after 2013. Overall, we estimate that at most 20% of the projected tax revenue increase from the 2013 tax reform is lost through behavioral responses. This implies that the 2013 tax increase was an efficient way to raise revenue.
paywall  capital_gains  fiscal_policy  tax_collection  behavioral_economics  tax_increases  US_government  Obama_administration  1-percent  top-marginal_tax_rates  NBER  tax_policy  paper  tax_avoidance 
december 2016 by dunnettreader
Larry Summers
The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations
Antonio Fatás, Lawrence H. Summers
NBER Working Paper No. 22374
Issued in June 2016
NBER Program(s):   EFG
The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies. At the same time, and in response to rising government debt levels, many of these countries have been engaging in fiscal consolidations that have had a negative impact on growth rates. We empirically explore the connections between these two facts by extending to longer horizons the methodology of Blanchard and Leigh (2013) regarding fiscal policy multipliers. Our results provide support for the presence of strong hysteresis effects of fiscal policy. The large size of the effects points in the direction of self-defeating fiscal consolidations as suggested by DeLong and Summers (2012). Attempts to reduce debt via fiscal consolidations have very likely resulted in a higher debt to GDP ratio through their long-term negative impact on output.
austerity  fiscal_policy  macroeconomics  NBER  paper  fiscal_multipliers  economic_theory  Great_Recession  hysterisis  paywall 
november 2016 by dunnettreader
The Leverage Ratchet Effect by Anat R. Admati, Peter M. DeMarzo, Martin F. Hellwig, Paul C. Pfleiderer (October 2016) :: SSRN
Anat R. Admati, Stanford Graduate School of Business; Peter M. DeMarzo. Stanford Graduate School of Business, NBER; Martin F. Hellwig, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, U. of Bonn - Dep of Econ; Paul C. Pfleiderer, Stanford Graduate School of Business -- Max Planck - Collective Goods Bonn 2013/13
credit_booms  recapitalization  corporate_finance  debt-overhang  debt-seniority  leverage  banking  financial_crisis  debt-restructuring  downloaded  capital_markets  financial_regulation  equity-corporate  paper  debt 
november 2016 by dunnettreader
Ricardo J. Caballero, Alp Simsek - A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment: Global Liquidity Creation and Reach for Safety and Yield - NBER - October 2016
Gross capital flows are very large and highly cyclical. They are a central aspect of global liquidity creation and destruction. They also exhibit rich internal dynamics that shape fluctuations in domestic liquidity, such as the fickleness of foreign capital inflows and the retrenchment of domestic capital outflows during crises. In this paper we provide a model that builds on these observations to address some of the main questions and concerns in the capital flows literature. Within this model, we find that for symmetric economies, the liquidity provision aspect of capital flows vastly outweighs their fickleness cost, so that taxing capital flows, while could prove useful for a country in isolation, backfires as a global equilibrium outcome. However, if the system is heterogeneous and includes economies with abundant (DM) and with limited (EM) natural domestic liquidity, there can be scenarios when global liquidity uncertainty is high and EM's reach for safety can destabilize DMs, as well as risk-on scenarios in which DM's reach for yield can destabilize EMs.
paper  paywall  NBER  capital_flows  capital_markets  yield  liquidity  emerging_markets  capital_controls  financial_stability  international_finance 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Thomas Palley » A Theory of Economic Policy - Lock-in and Lock-out via Hysterisis (WP October 2016)
A Theory of Economic Policy Lock-in and Lock-out via Hysterisis: Rethinking Economists’ Approach to Economic Policy
This paper explores lock-in and lock-out via economic policy. It argues policy decisions may near-irrevocably change the economy’s structure, thereby changing its performance. That causes changed economic outcomes concerning distribution of wealth, income and power, which in turn induces locked-in changes in political outcomes. That is a different way of thinking about policy compared to conventional macroeconomic stabilization theory. The latter treats policy as a dial which is dialed up or down, depending on the economy’s state. Lock-in policy is illustrated by the euro, globalization, and the neoliberal policy experiment. - downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
inequality-wealth  political_economy  inequality  neoliberalism  downloaded  economic_policy  elites-political_influence  distribution-wealth  macroeconomics  paper  path-dependency  business_cycles 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Marco Di Maggio
The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer
Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani
NBER Working Paper No. 22625
Issued in September 2016
NBER Program(s):   EFG   LS   PE
We assess the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) serves as an automatic stabilizer to mitigate the economy's sensitivity to shocks. Using a local labor market design based on heterogeneity in local benefit generosity, we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in generosity attenuates the effect of adverse shocks on employment growth by 7% and on earnings growth by 6%. Consistent with a local demand channel, we find that consumption is less responsive to local labor demand shocks in counties with more generous benefits. Our analysis finds that the local fiscal multiplier of unemployment insurance expenditure is approximately 1.9.
paywall  unemployment_insurance  consumer_demand  unemployment  paper  NBER  demand-side  recessions  fiscal_multipliers  automatic_stabilizers  fiscal_policy 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Gary Gorton
Mobile Collateral versus Immobile Collateral
Gary Gorton, Tyler Muir
NBER Working Paper No. 22619
Issued in September 2016
NBER Program(s):   AP   CF   DAE   EFG   ME
In the face of the Lucas Critique, economic history can be used to evaluate policy. We use the experience of the U.S. National Banking Era to evaluate the most important bank regulation to emerge from the financial crisis, the Bank for International Settlement's liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) which requires that (net) short-term (uninsured) bank debt (e.g. repo) be backed one-for-one with U.S. Treasuries (or other high quality bonds). The rule is narrow banking. The experience of the U.S. National Banking Era, which also required that bank short-term debt be backed by Treasury debt one-for-one, suggests that the LCR is unlikely to reduce financial fragility and may increase it.
NBFI  NBER  financial_stability  risk_management  collateral  financial_economics  capital_markets  bad_regulation  leverage  financial_system  risk-systemic  paywall  money_market  banking  paper  financial_regulation  BIS 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Barry Eichengreen - The Political Economy of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff (1986) - NBER
The Political Economy of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff
Barry Eichengreen
NBER Working Paper No. 2001
Issued in August 1986
NBER Program(s):   ITI   DAE   IFM
Economic histories of the interwar years view the Great Depression and the Smoot Hawley Tariff as inextricably bound up with one another. They assign a central role to the Depression in explaining the passage of the 1930 Tariff Act and at the same time emphasize the role of the tariff in the propogation of the Depression. This paper argues that popular accounts have conveyed what is at best an incomplete and at worst a misleading impression of the relationship between the tariff and the Depression. Rather than simply strengthening the hand of a Republican Executive predisposed toward protection or increasing the burden borne by a depressed agricultural sector, the uneven impact of the Depression occasioned the birth of a new protectionist coalition comprised of producers particularly hard hit by import competition: border agriculture and small-scale industry engaged in the production of speciality goods. Rather than leading to a dramatic across-the-board decline in the volume of U.S. imports, the tariff had very different effects across sectors. Rather than worsening the Great Depression by reducing foreign demands for U.S. exports, the direct macroeconomic effect of the tariff is likely to have been expansionary. This remains true even when feedbacks to the United States and foreign retaliation are analyzed. In any case, relative to the Depression, the direct macroeconomic effects of the tariff were small. If Smoot-Hawley had significant macroeconomic effects, these operated instead through its impact on the stability of the international monetary system and the efficiency of the international capital market.
competition-interstate  trade-agreements  economic_history  Great_Depression  NBER  trade  trade-policy  protectionism  economic_theory  20thC  entre_deux_guerres  revisionism  paywall  paper  Smoot-Hawley  race-to-the-bottom 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Vitor Gaspar - The Making of a Continental Financial System; Lessons for Europe from Early American History (2014) IMF working paper
Alexander Hamilton was the first U.S. Treasury Secretary from 1789 to 1795. When he started, the Federal Government was in default. During his tenure, U.S. Treasuries became the ultimate safe asset. He successfully managed expectations, achieved debt service reduction, and stabilized financial panics. He delivered sound public finances and financial stability. In the end, the U.S. possessed a modern financial system able to finance innovation and growth. At a time when Europe is working its way out of the sovereign debt crisis and implementing Banking Union and Financial Union, it is worthwhile to search for lessons from early U.S. history. - downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
paper  capital_markets  18thC  risk_assessment  European_integration  US_economy  sovereign_debt  economic_history  market_integration  Eurozone  political_economy  Germany-Eurozone  governance-regional  asset_prices  downloaded  US_history  Hamilton  federalism  regional_blocs 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Henry Farrell - Privatization as State Transformation — Crooked Timber - Sept 2016
This account helps explain not only why key parts of the state have become privatized or semi-privatized, being put out to private operators, but why states are increasingly relying on private systems of ordering. It shows how the privatization of governance spans the international sphere as well as domestic politics, since international and cross-national forms of regulation have sometimes been partly privatized, and sometimes structured so as to provide private entities with new opportunities to challenge government decisions. Finally, it provides the basis for a specific normative critique of privatization. Here, I do not try to evaluate whether the economy works worse, or better, after privatization than it did in an era when the state exercised control through ownership rather than regulation. Instead, more simply, I show that privatization did not work as its enthusiasts argued and believed that it would, looking to evaluate it in terms of its own promises. Rather than pushing back the state, and replacing political inefficiency with the competitive disciplines of the market, it has replaced one form of political control with another. -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
competition-political  political_science  efficiency  political_change  downloaded  international_organizations  international_political_economy  IR-domestic_politics  hierarchy  accountability  reform-political  competition  political_economy  risk_management  paper  government-forms  political_sociology  political_order  politics-and-money  political_discourse  privatization  organizations  decision_theory  bureaucracy  political_culture 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
John Cramer - The Copernican System: A Detailed Synopsis (2015) - Medievalists.net
Oglethorpe Journal of Undergraduate Research, Vol. 5:1 (2015) via blurb omn Medievalists.net - downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
downloaded  intellectual_history  16thC  cosmology  astronomy  paper  history_of_science  solar_system  Copernicus 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Peter Huckfeldt, Christopher Knittel - Pharmaceutical Use Following Generic Entry: Paying Less and Buying Less :: SSRN - NBER Working Paper (May 2011)
Peter J. Huckfeldt, RAND Corporation -' Christopher R. Knittel
MIT - Sloan School of Management; NBER -' NBER Working Paper No. w17046:
We study the effects of generic entry on prices and utilization using both event study models that exploit the differential timing of generic entry across drug molecules and cast studies. Our analysis examines drugs treating hypertension, high blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, and depression using price and utilization data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We find that utilization of drug molecules starts decreasing in the two years prior to generic entry and continues to decrease in the years following generic entry, despite decreases in prices offered by generic versions of a drug. This decrease coincides with the market entry and increased utilization of branded reformulations of a drug going off patent. We show case study evidence that utilization patterns coincide with changes in marketing by branded drug manufacturers. While the reformulations---often extended-release versions of the patent-expiring drug---offer potential health benefits, the FDA does not require evidence that the reformulations are improvements over the previous drug in order to grant a patent. Indeed, in a number of experiments comparing the efficacies of the patent-expiring and reformulated drugs do not find statistical differences in health outcomes calling into question the patent-extension policy. -' Number of Pages in PDF File: 50 -- didn't download
paper  SSRN  pharma  IP  FDA-approval  pharma-marketing  drug_trials  patents  health_care-costs 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
P Aghion, C Hepburn, A Teytelboym, D Zenghelis - Path dependence, innovation and the economics of climate change (Policy Report 2014) | Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at London School of Economics and Political Science.
The authors of the report – Professor Philippe Aghion (Harvard University), Professor Cameron Hepburn (University of Oxford), Dr Alexander Teytelboym (University of Oxford) and Dimitri Zenghelis (LSE)Innovation is required to transform our fossil-fuelled economy into a clean, low-carbon economy. But economic models of climate change have overlooked the role of innovation. By taking innovation fully into account, a whole new set of policy conclusions are drawn. This report finds that the longer governments wait to promote clean energy innovation, the greater the eventual cost to the environment and the economy. Increased public support for clean innovation should therefore be a priority. Government policies to promote low-carbon innovation may only need to be in place for a limited time because, once a low-carbon pathway has been kick-started, the economy will become ‘locked-in’ to that low-carbon pathway with no further intervention needed. -- downloaded via Air - added to Evernote
paper  downloaded  Evernote  climate  Innovation  green_economy  green_finance  path-dependence  technology  innovation-government-supported  infrastructure  renewables  economic_growth  economic_sociology  economic_policy  energy  energy-markets 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Kenneth R Westphal - Empiricism, Pragmatic Realism & the A Priori in "Mind and the World Orde" (draft - forthcoming 2017 | Academia.edu
Forthcoming in: Carl SACHS & Peter OLEN eds., Contemporary Perspectives on C. I. Lewis: Pragmatism in Transition (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017) --This paper re-examines how C.I. Lewis’s pragmatic realism in Mind and the World Order (1929, ‘MWO’) contrasts to logical empiricism, and to Lewis’s later An Analysis of Knowledge and Valuation (1946, ‘AKV’), to highlight several important philosophical points Lewis clearly understood and argued for in MWO, which we need to recover today. MWO is expressly an ‘Outline of a Theory of Knowledge’; nevertheless, it provides several important lessons about human knowledge, action and our worldly context. These are highlighted by contrast to some key points in Carnap’s empiricist semantics (§2) and by considering a point important to scientific realism, not properly accommodated by Carnap’s semantics: Reichenbach’s (1920, 1922) ‘coördination’ (Zuordnung) principles – a very important point about scientific measurement procedures, central both to Peirce and to MWO (§3). These coördinating principles for exact scientific measurements highlight the contrast between the meta-linguistic ‘relative a priori’ admissible by empiricist semantics (Friedman 1999, 2001), and Lewis’ robustly realist ‘pragmatic a priori’ in MWO. I re-examine key features of MWO (§4), including Lewis’s rejection of mythical givenness and of a series of false dichotomies which still plague current discussions of epistemology, pragmatism and history and philosophy of science. -- Research Interests: Epistemology, Semantic Externalism, Pragmatism (Philosophy), Explication (Philosophy), Clarence Irving Lewis,
paper  downloaded  intellectual_history  20thC  pragmatism  Logical_Positivism  empiricism  Lewis_CI  Carnap  metaphysics  epistemology  apriori  philosophy_of_science  logic  semantics  Peirce  realism-scientific  scientific_method  myth_of_the_given 
september 2016 by dunnettreader
Lemin Wu - Home - If Not Malthusian, Then Why? A Darwinian Explanation of the Malthusian Trap (July 2015)
His site with links to other work, CV etc - This paper shows that the Malthusian mechanism alone cannot explain the pre-industrial stagnation of living standards. Improvement in luxury technology, if faster than improvement in subsistence technology, would have kept living standards growing. The Malthusian trap is essentially a puzzle of balanced growth between the luxury sector and the subsistence sector. The author argues that balanced growth is caused by group selection in the form of biased migration. It is proven that a tiny bit of bias in migration can suppress a strong growth tendency. The theory re-explains the Malthusian trap and the prosperity of ancient market economies such as Rome and Sung. It also suggests a new set of factors triggering modern economic growth. - work up of his dissertation at Berkeley -- downloaded via Air, attached to Evernote
paper  economic_history  economic_growth  ancient_Rome  Chinese_history  Sung_dynasty  ancient_China  Malthusian_trap  demography  technology  agriculture  markets  elites  luxury  standard-of-living  migration  downloaded 
september 2016 by dunnettreader
José Azar, Martin C. Schmalz, Isabel Tecu - Anti-Competitive Effects of Common Ownership :: SSRN July 5, 2016
José Azar , University of Navarra, IESE Business School
Martin C. Schmalz , University of Michigan, Stephen M. Ross School of Business
Isabel Tecu , Charles River Associates (CRA)
Ross School of Business Paper No. 1235
Many natural competitors are jointly held by a small set of large diversified institutional investors. In the US airline industry, taking common ownership into account implies increases in market concentration that are 10 times larger than what is “presumed likely to enhance market power” by antitrust authorities. We use within-route variation over time to identify a positive effect of common ownership on ticket prices. A panel-IV strategy that exploits BlackRock's acquisition of Barclays Global Investors confirms these results. We conclude that a hidden social cost -- reduced product market competition -- accompanies the private benefits of diversification and good governance. -- Pages 61
Keywords: Competition, Ownership, Diversification, Pricing, Antitrust, Governance, Product Market
Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
industry_consolidation  corporate_ownership  SSRN  interlocking_holdings  industry_structure  corporate_governance  conflict_of_interest  downloaded  rent-seeking  paper  institutional_investors  capital_markets  anti-competive_behavior  competition  cross-holdings 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Bordalo, Gennaioli and Shleifer - Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles - WP June 2016 version
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. Working Paper. “Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles”.Abstract
We present a model of credit cycles arising from diagnostic expectations – a belief formation mechanism based on Kahneman and Tversky’s (1972) representativeness heuristic. In this formulation, when forming their beliefs agents overweight future outcomes that have become more likely in light of incoming data. The model reconciles extrapolation and neglect of risk in a unified framework. Diagnostic expectations are forward looking, and as such are immune to the Lucas critique and nest rational expectations as a special case. In our model of credit cycles, credit spreads are excessively volatile, over-react to news, and are subject to predictable reversals. These dynamics can account for several features of credit cycles and macroeconomic volatility
PDF, revised June 2016 -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
financial_system  bubbles  creditors  investors  leverage  credit_crunch  paper  capital_markets  debt_crisis  consumer_demand  debt-overhang  banking  reallocation-labor  demand-side  credit_booms  downloaded  debt-restructuring  reallocation-capital  financial_crisis  investment 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Iryna Stewen & Mathias Hoffmann - Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, US house prices & the long shadow of banking deregulation (2015 wp)
Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy with number 112834. -- Abstract -- We explore empirically how capital inflows into the US and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the run-up (and subsequent decline) in US housing prices over the period 1990-2010. To obtain an ex ante measure of financial liberalization, we focus on the history of interstate-banking deregulation during the 1980s, i.e. prior to the large net capital inflows into the US from China and other emerging economies. Our results suggest a long shadow of deregulation: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to capital inflows. We provide evidence that global imbalances were a major positive funding shock for US wide banks: different from local banks, these banks held a geographically diversified portfolio of mortgages which allowed them to tap the global demand for safe assets by issuing private-label safe assets backed by the country-wide US housing market. This, in turn, allowed them to expand mortgage lending and lower interest rates, driving up housing prices. -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
banking  financial_crisis  deregulation  US_economy  downloaded  financial_regulation  global_imbalance  capital_markets  post-Cold_War  financial_system  interstate_banking  savings  house_prices  securitization  financial_innovation  interest_rates  mortgages  international_finance  capital_flows  community_banks  paper  21stC  economic_history  competition-interstate  NBFI 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Kevin O'Rourke and Alan Taylor - Democracy and Protectionism (2006)
Abstract
Does democracy encourage free trade? It depends. Broadening the franchise involves transferring power from non-elected elites to the wider population, most of whom will be workers. The Hecksher-Ohlin-Stolper-Samuelson logic says that democratization should lead to more liberal trade policies in countries where workers stand to gain from free trade; and to more protectionist policies in countries where workers will benefit from the imposition of tariffs and quotas. We test and confirm these political economy implications of trade theory hypothesis using data on democracy, factor endowments, and protection in the late nineteenth century. -- published in MIT Press collection in honor of Jeffrey Williamson - The New Comparative Economics -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
working_class  economic_history  business-and-politics  protectionism  political_participation  trade  government-forms  trade-policy  downloaded  democracy  political_economy  elites  paper 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Peter A.G. van Bergeijk - The heterogeneity of world trade collapses
Abstract
This paper analyses drivers of imports during the major world trade collapses of the Great Depression (1930s; 34 countries) and the Great Recession (1930s; 173 countries). The analysis deals with the first year of these episodes and develops a small empirical model that shows a significant impact of the development of GDP, the share of manufacturing goods in total imports and the political system. The analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity with respect to regional importance of these drivers. -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
public_policy  political_participation  economic_growth  global_economy  economic_history  political_economy  trade-policy  paper  institutions  government-forms  business-and-politics  international_political_economy  global_system  downloaded  trade  Great_Recession 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
R. Esteves - The Political Economy of Global Financial Liberalisation in Historical Perspective (2011) Oxford Economic and Social Sciences WP
Abstract
This paper is a first attempt to garner the theory and evidence on the political economy of the first wave of financial liberalisation during the nineteenth and early twentieth century, and of its demise after World War I. Not everyone gained from the process of globalisation (of trade, labour, and finance), which brought about important changes in the structure of the economy and the distribution of income in nations across the world. This paper explores how the economic incentives generated by these dislocations translated, through the political system, into choices about openness to foreign capital and financial integration. The period before World War I is remarkable by the almost absence of restrictions on cross-border capital flows, which may explain the little attention it has received in the historical literature, compared to the extensive study of trade protectionism in this period. After the War, many countries experimented with capital controls which varied in nature and intensity and were intensified during the Depression. Despite the attempt made here to reconcile these stylized facts to models of political economy, the analysis requires a better empirical foundation and some suggestions for further research are also proposed. - Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX.
financial_regulation  economic_growth  pre-WWI  20thC  protectionism  downloaded  gold_standard  international_finance  financial_system  trade-policy  trade  19thC  capital_flows  capital_controls  globalization  deregulation  free_trade  paper  economic_history  financial_innovation  political_economy 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Eggertsson & Summers - How secular stagnation in open economies spreads and how it can be cured | VOX.eu, 22 July 2016
Secular stagnation in the open economies: How it spreads, how it can be cured - Gauti Eggertsson, Lawrence Summers - The secular stagnation hypothesis suggests that low interest rates may be the new normal in years to come. This column argues that this prospect should not only lead to a major rethinking of policy from the perspective of individual economies, but also a major rethinking about monetary and fiscal policy in the international context, the role of international capital flows, and the role of policy coordination across borders. In times of secular stagnation, events such as Brexit or the recent turbulence in Turkey have much larger spillover effects than under normal circumstances. -- Much of previous work, including our own writings (Summers 2014, Eggertsson and Mehotra 2014), focuses on the secular stagnation hypothesis in the context of the US. Our two recent papers, however, written jointly with Neil Mehrotra (Eggertsson et al. 2016a, hereafter EMS) and with Neil Mehrotra and Sanjay Singh (Eggertsson et al. 2016b, hereafter EMSS), highlight the importance of real exchange rates and especially international capital movements in spreading secular stagnation, and the resulting policy spillovers across countries. -- downloaded to Tab S2
paper  downloaded  international_political_economy  international_finance  monetary_policy  central_banks  fiscal_policy  investment  savings  capital_flows  contagion  stagnation  interest_rates 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Management as a Technology?
Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun, John Van Reenen
NBER Working Paper No. 22327
Issued in June 2016
NBER Program(s):   CF   DEV   EFG   IO   LS   PR
Are some management practices akin to a technology that can explain company and national productivity, or do they simply reflect contingent management styles? We collect data on core management practices from over 11,000 firms in 34 countries. We find large cross-country differences in the adoption of basic management practices, with the US having the highest size-weighted average management score. We present a formal model of “Management as a Technology”, and structurally estimate it using panel data to recover parameters including the depreciation rate and adjustment costs of managerial capital (both found to be larger than for tangible non-managerial capital). Our model also predicts (i) a positive effect of management on firm performance; (ii) a positive relationship between product market competition and average management quality (part of which stems from the larger covariance between management with firm size as competition strengthens); and (iii) a rise (fall) in the level (dispersion) of management with firm age. We find strong empirical support for all of these predictions in our data. Finally, building on our model, we find that differences in management practices account for about 30% of cross-country total factor productivity differences.
competition  NBER  business_practices  paper  productivity  management 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Thomas Palley » Blog Archive » Why ZLB Economics and Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) are Wrong: A Theoretical Critique
NIRP is quickly becoming a consensus policy within the economics establishment. This paper argues that consensus is dangerously wrong, resting on flawed theory and flawed policy assessment. Regarding theory, NIRP draws on fallacious pre-Keynesian economic logic that asserts interest rate adjustment can ensure full employment. That pre-Keynesian logic has been augmented by ZLB economics which claims times of severe demand shortage may require negative interest rates, which policy must deliver since the market cannot. Regarding policy assessment, NIRP turns a blind eye to the possibility that negative interest rates may reduce AD, cause financial fragility, create a macroeconomics of whiplash owing to contradictions between policy today and tomorrow, promote currency wars that undermine the international economy, and foster a political economy that spawns toxic politics. Worst of all, NIRP maintains and encourages the flawed model of growth, based on debt and asset price inflation, which has already done such harm. Downloaded to Tab S2
paper  downloaded  macroeconomics  monetary_policy  interest_rates  central_banks  demand-side  zero-bound  FX-rate_management  economic_growth  economic_theory  financial_crisis  capital_flows  asset_prices  leverage  debt-overhang 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Failed states and the paradox of civilisation - Ernesto Dal Bó, Pablo Hernandez-Lagos, Sebastián Mazzuca | Vox.EU - July 2016
While cases of state failure have risen in the last decade, most notably in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, they are not a new phenomenon. Historical evidence from the early modern period, and even the Bronze Age, shows that the majority of formed states have failed rather than thrived. This column introduces the ‘paradox of civilisation’ to characterise the obstacles settlements face in establishing civilisations. The paradox defines the success of a civilisation as a trade-off between the ability to produce economic surplus and to protect it. It is therefore important to correctly balance military and economic support when providing aid. - Summary of NBER paper- downloaded vox version to Tab S2
paper  downloaded  ancient_history  civilization-concept  state-building  institutional_capacity  institution-building  failed_states  military  economic_growth  historical_sociology  agriculture  ancient_Near_East  ancient_Egypt  Sub-Saharan_Africa  MENA  Iraq  Syria  ISIS 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Atif Mian, Amir Sufi - Who Bears the Cost of Recessions? The Role of House Prices and Household Debt | NBER -:May 2016
NBER Working Paper No. 22256 -- This chapter reviews empirical estimates of differential income and consumption growth across individuals during recessions. Most existing studies examine the variation in income and consumption growth across individuals by sorting on ex ante or contemporaneous income or consumption levels. We build on this literature by showing that differential shocks to household net worth coming from elevated household debt and the collapse in house prices play an underappreciated role. Using zip codes in the United States as the unit of analysis, we show that the decline in numerous measures of consumption during the Great Recession was much larger in zip codes that experienced a sharp decline in housing net worth. In the years prior to the recession, these same zip codes saw high house price growth, a substantial expansion of debt by homeowners, and high consumption growth. We discuss what models seem most consistent with this striking pattern in the data, and we highlight the increasing body of macroeconomic evidence on the link between household debt and business cycles. Our main conclusion is that housing and household debt should play a larger role in models exploring the importance of household heterogeneity on macroeconomic outcomes and policies.
paper  paywall  NBER  economic_history  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  debt_crisis  debt-overhang  business_cycles  house_prices  mortgages  consumer_demand  US_economy 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Atif R. Mian, Amir Sufi, Emil Verner - Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide | NBER - Sept 2015
An increase in the household debt to GDP ratio in the medium run predicts lower subsequent GDP growth, higher unemployment, and negative growth forecasting errors in a panel of 30 countries from 1960 to 2012. Consistent with the “credit supply hypothesis,” we show that low mortgage spreads predict an increase in the household debt to GDP ratio and a decline in subsequent GDP growth when used as an instrument. The negative relation between the change in household debt to GDP and subsequent output growth is stronger for countries that face stricter monetary policy constraints as measured by a less flexible exchange rate regime, proximity to the zero lower bound, or more external borrowing. A rise in the household debt to GDP ratio is contemporaneously associated with a consumption boom followed by a reversal in the trade deficit as imports collapse. We also uncover a global household debt cycle that partly predicts the severity of the global growth slowdown after 2007. Countries with a household debt cycle more correlated with the global household debt cycle experience a sharper decline in growth after an increase in domestic household debt.
paper  paywall  NBER  economic_history  post-WWII  housing  house_prices  mortgages  interest_rates  business_cycles  debt_crisis  debt-overhang  debt-restructuring  macroeconomic_policy  consumer_demand  global_economy  global_financial_cycle  economic_growth 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
G Clark, KH O'Rourke, AM Taylor - The Growing Dependence of Britain on Trade during the Industrial Revolution | NBER - Feb 2014
The Growing Dependence of Britain on Trade during the Industrial Revolution -- Gregory Clark, Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, Alan M. Taylor -- NBER Working Paper No. 19926 -- Many previous studies of the role of trade during the British Industrial Revolution have found little or no role for trade in explaining British living standards or growth rates. We construct a three-region model of the world in which Britain trades with North America and the rest of the world, and calibrate the model to data from the 1760s and 1850s. We find that while trade had only a small impact on British welfare in the 1760s, it had a very large impact in the 1850s. This contrast is robust to a large range of parameter perturbations. Biased technological change and population growth were key in explaining Britain's growing dependence on trade during the Industrial Revolution.
paper  paywall  NBER  economic_history  British_history  UK_economy  trade  Industrial_Revolution  technology  technology-adoption  demography  18thC  19thC 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Political Rents and Profits in Regulated Industries - ProMarket July 2016
A new working paper by James Bessen from Boston University finds that much of the rise in corporate profits since 2000 was caused by political rent seeking.
profit  business-and-politics  utilities  consumer_protection  competition  regulation  anti-trust  rents  market_failure  political_economy  paper  from instapaper
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Viktor Slavtchev and Simon Wiederhold: Does the Technological Content of Government Demand Matter for Private R&D? - via Brad DeLong
Must-Read: Viktor Slavtchev and Simon Wiederhold: Does the Technological Content of Government Demand Matter for Private R&D?: "Governments purchase everything from airplanes to zucchini... ...This paper investigates the role of the technological content of government procurement in innovation.... Theoreticall... a shift in the composition of public purchases toward high-tech products translates into higher economy-wide returns to innovation, leading to an increase in the aggregate level of private research and development (R&D). Collecting unique panel data on federal procurement in US states, we find that reshuffling procurement toward high-tech industries has an economically and statistically significant positive effect on private R&D, even after extensively controlling for other R&D determinants. Instrumental-variable estimations support a causal interpretation of our findings. -- link to pdf - didn't download
paper  investment-government  investment  R&D  government_spending  fiscal-military_state  technology  Innovation  innovation-government_policy 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
FRB: FEDS Notes: Government-Backed Mortgage Insurance Promoted a Speedier Recovery from the Great Recession
URL is for Fed Note that summarizes one part of the larger Paper - April 2016 -- Government-Backed Mortgage Insurance, Financial Crisis, and the Recovery from the Great Recession (PDF) -- Wayne Passmore and Shane M. Sherlund -- Abstract: The Great Recession provides an opportunity to test the proposition that government mortgage insurance programs mitigated the effects of the financial crisis and enhanced the economic recovery from 2009 to 2014. We find that government-sponsored mortgage insurance programs have been responsible for better economic outcomes in counties that participated heavily in these programs. In particular, counties with high levels of participation from government-sponsored enterprises and the Federal Housing Authority had relatively lower unemployment rates, higher home sales, higher home prices, lower mortgage delinquency rates, and less foreclosure activity, both in 2009 (soon after the peak of the financial crisis) and in 2014 (six years after the crisis) than did counties with lower levels of participation. The persistence of better outcomes in counties with heavy participation in federal government programs is consistent with a view that lower government liquidity premiums , lower government credit-risk premiums, and looser government mortgage-underwriting standards yield higher private-sector economic activity after a financial crisis. - Keywords: Financial crisis, Great Recssion, government policy, mortgages - paper downloaded to Tab S2
paper  Fed  Great_Recession  Great_Depression  housing  mortgages  financial_crisis  GSEs  securitization  unemployment  house_prices  countercyclical_policy  downloaded 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
J Oldfather, S Gissler & D Ruffino - Bank Complexity: Is Size Everything? | FRB: FEDS Notes: July 2016
Jeremy Oldfather, Stefan Gissler, and Doriana Ruffino - Can we measure the complexity of large banks by comparing their balance sheets? The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) acknowledges that we cannot, but it stops short of defining alternative non-balance-sheet measures.1 In this note, we propose a network-based analysis to study the structural complexity of banks through publicly available data on the structure of large U.S. banks. We show that our analysis is also informative more broadly for tailoring bank resolution plans. - interesting use of network graphs - downloaded to Tab S2
paper  Fed  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_adequacy  banking-universal  bank_holding_cos  networks-architecture  networks-financial  risk_management  complexity  downloaded 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Michael T. Kiley - Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Frictions for Macroprudential Policymaking: A Review of Pressing Challenges | FRB: FEDS Notes: May 2016
Structural macroeconomic modeling plays a central role economic policy discussions. Over the past fifty years, the overwhelming majority of such efforts have focused on the structural features of household, firm, and government behavior that lead to cyclical fluctuations in employment and inflation and the roles of monetary and fiscal policy in ameliorating undesirable volatility in economic performance. In recent years, the potential role of macroprudential policies in limiting excessive volatility in the financial sector and the consequent effects on economic performance has risen to the fore in academic and policy discussions. While progress in modeling for macroprudential policy analysis has been substantial, there remain many important challenges, and consensus on a core modeling framework remains far away. This note reviews some of the progress witnessed in recent years and challenges that remain. - downloaded to Tab S2
paper  Fed  macroprudential_policies  macroeconomics  economic_models  economic_theory  financial_stability  Great_Recession  bank_runs  money_market  housing  households  house_prices  leverage  intermediation  non-linear_models  downloaded 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Eggertsson, Mehrotra, Singh & Summers - A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation | NBER June 2016
Gauti B. Eggertsson, Neil R. Mehrotra, Sanjay R. Singh, Lawrence H. Summers - Conditions of secular stagnation - low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth - characterize much of the global economy. We consider an overlapping generations, open economy model of secular stagnation, and examine the effect of capital flows on the transmission of stagnation. In a world with a low natural rate of interest, greater capital integration transmits recessions across countries as opposed to lower interest rates. In a global secular stagnation, expansionary fiscal policy carries positive spillovers implying gains from coordination, and fiscal policy is self-financing. Expansionary monetary policy, by contrast, is beggar-thy-neighbor with output gains in one country coming at the expense of the other. Similarly, we find that competitiveness policies including structural labor market reforms or neomercantilist trade policies are also beggar-thy-neighbor in a global secular stagnation.
economic_theory  interest_rates  stagnation  economic_growth  OECD_economies  paywall  capital_flows  paper  international_finance  global_economy  contagion  monetary_policy  FX-rate_management  international_political_economy  competition-interstate  fiscal_policy  fiscal_multipliers  trade-policy  Labor_markets  austerity  competiveness-labor  wages  labor_standards 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Dietrich Vollrath - The Early Transformation of Britain's Economy | Growth Economics
On Wallis et al WP - Structural Change in the British economy 1500-1800 - Your Bayesian prior on “the probability the Great Divergence had its origins prior to the Industrial Revolution” should get updated to a higher number. - These numbers are bad news if you have “Glorious Revolution” in the “monocausal origins of economic growth” office pool. The data reinforce the argument that the Glorious Revolution was as much a response to economic change, as it was a cause of economic change.Britain experiencing a structural change from 1550 to 1750 does not mean it was already experiencing sustained growth. The growth experienced in that period may well have been snuffed out by Malthusian forces of population growth in time. But perhaps that structural change helped bring on the changes in demographic behavior that allowed sustained growth to occur? This structural shift bleeds directly into the Industrial Revolution, which bleeds directly into the demographic shifts involved with sustained growth. Whether this implies a chain of causality is too much to make of this evidence. - downloaded paper to Tab S2
paper  Great_Divergence  16thC  17thC  18thC  British_history  economic_history  agriculture  economic_growth  Malthusian  Industrial_Revolution  industrialization  downloaded 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Matthew Sharpe - [draft slides] Athletes in the Arena: Diderot and his Seneca | Academia.edu
Whereas Seneca's critics argue that his life and alleged compliance with Nero contradicts his Stoic, noble-sounding principles, discrediting the latter; in his two late books on the Stoic, Diderot argues that Seneca's continual attempts to mollify Nero's tyranny betters the philosophy.  Where Diderot's critics reduce the two works on Seneca to veiled attacks on Rousseau, Diderot is critical of those texts wherein Seneca advocated the withdrawal & “leisure of the sage” or the vita contemplativa, while Rome burnt (“Rousseau est la figure moderne et honnie du détachement, qui permet à Diderot de dissocier Sénèque du détachement stoïcien. » (Lojskine 2009))  Whether contra Rousseau or no, Diderot is most attracted—amongst all Seneca's works Diderot examines—to Seneca’s On Benefits, and wants to restore compassion, even justified anger, to Stoicism.  Whether to justify himself for his own naivety in trying to teach Catherine of Russia or not, Diderot defends Seneca’s attempts to mollify Nero, led by De Clementia; he appeals, a la Shaftesbury and others, to Seneca’s “coeur” and compassion, beyond his Stoicism, notably in On Benefits; he criticises Stoic fatalism and appeals to a paraStoic notion of “natural rights” to justify resistance to tyranny; famously celebrating the American revolution as as lesson to all Europe.  So, beneath the "miserable" polemics (Cittion), there remains a good deal of philosophy; beneath the rhetorical smoke, (to use a Stoic-ism) a good deal of theoretical fire.  This paper aims at retrieving this fire, and situating Diderot's mitigated Stoicism as a French avatar of the moral sentimentalist position, with roots in the Stoic idea of oikeosis (and of parental love as the elementary cell of sociablity), as articulated by CIcero. Research Interests: Stoicism, Roman Stoicism, Philosophy of the Enlightenment, and Philosophy as a way of life -- downloaded
paper  Academia.edu  intellectual_history  Enlightenment  18thC  French_Enlightenment  philosophes  ancient_philosophy  ancient_Rome  Hellenism  Stoicism  Seneca  Diderot  Rousseau  moral_philosophy  moral_sentiments  eclecticism  Cicero  emotions  tyranny  Roman_Empire  downloaded 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
William F. Maloney, Felipe Valencia Caicedo - Economic Activity in the Americas- A landscape that Columbus would recognise | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal -June 2016
14 June 2016
The persistence of economic fortune over the long run has been the subject of intense research. This column investigates the persistence of patterns of economic activity in the Americas at the sub-national level over the last half millennium. The location of today’s prosperous cities and regions within each country is closely correlated with the location of indigenous population centres before the arrival of Christopher Columbus in 1492. Policymakers seeking to make radical changes in the spatial distribution of economic activity should be mindful of the centuries-old, even pre-colonial, forces working against them. - downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
21stC  North_America  transport  geography  18thC  economic_history  paper  indigenous_peoples  agriculture  17thC  urbanization  19thC  downloaded  Latin_America  20thC  16thC  colonial_era  transport-overland 
june 2016 by dunnettreader
Pawel Krolowkowski - Choosing a Control Group for Displaced Workers | Cleveland Fed
The vast majority of studies on the earnings of displaced workers use a control group of continuously employed workers to examine the effects of initial displacements. This approach implies long-lived earnings reductions following displacement even if these effects are not persistent, overstating the losses relative to the true average treatment effect. This paper’s approach isolates the impact of an average displacement without imposing continuous employment on the control group. In a comparison of the standard and alternative approaches using PSID data, the estimated long-run earnings losses fall dramatically from 25 percent to 5 percent. Model simulations reinforce these empirical findings. - Key words: Displacement, earnings, control group, treatment event. - available as pdf
wages  job_security  unemployment  US_economy  trade-job_loss  job_cuts  displaced_workers  training-job  trade_policy  paper 
june 2016 by dunnettreader
Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian - Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint? | IMF Staff Papers - Jan 2009
IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 112–138. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.29; published online 6 January 2009 -- The stylized fact that there is no correlation between long-run economic growth and financial globalization has spawned a recent literature that purports to provide newer evidence and arguments in favor of financial globalization. We review this literature and find it unconvincing. The underlying assumptions in this literature are that developing countries are savings-constrained; that access to foreign finance alleviates this to boost investment and long-run growth; and that insofar as there are problems with financial globalization, these can be remedied through deep institutional reforms. In contrast, we argue that developing economies are as or more likely to be investment- than savings-constrained and that the effect of foreign finance is often to aggravate this investment constraint by appreciating the real exchange rate and reducing profitability and investment opportunities in the traded goods sector, which have adverse long-run growth consequences. It is time for a new paradigm on financial globalization, and one that recognizes that more is not necessarily better. Depending on context and country, the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital inflows as to encourage them. Policymakers who view their challenges exclusively from the latter perspective risk getting it badly wrong. - downloaded pdf to Note
paper  downloaded  IMF  international_political_economy  international_finance  global_economy  emerging_markets  LDCs  capital_flows  investment  investment-government  development  economic_growth  economic_policy  economic_reform  access_to_finance  capital_controls  FX-misalignment  FX-rate_management  economic_theory  macroeconomics  international_economics  financial_economics  financial_sector_development 
may 2016 by dunnettreader
Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer - Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles | NBER - May 2016
NBER Working Paper No. 22266, Issued in May 2016 -- We present a model of credit cycles arising from diagnostic expectations – a belief formation mechanism based on Kahneman and Tversky’s (1972) representativeness heuristic. In this formulation, when forming their beliefs agents overweight future outcomes that have become more likely in light of incoming data. The model reconciles extrapolation and neglect of risk in a unified framework. Diagnostic expectations are forward looking, and as such are immune to the Lucas critique and nest rational expectations as a special case. In our model of credit cycles, credit spreads are excessively volatile, over-react to news, and are subject to predictable reversals. These dynamics can account for several features of credit cycles and macroeconomic volatility. - via DeLong
paper  paywall  business_cycles  Minsky  RBC  financial_system  capital_markets  credit  credit_booms  credit_crunch  rational_expectations  heuristics  rationality-economics  rational_choice  financial_stability  volatility  risk_assessment  interest_rates  spreads  Kindleberger 
may 2016 by dunnettreader
World Consortium for Research in Confucian Cultures
http://www.confuciancultureconsortium.com/#!background-and-overview/c1aw7 -- 2014 and 2015 held multiday cinferences - sponsors incoude East-West Institute and U of Hawaii Press but the About section is remarkably light on info. Downloaded the programs and abstracts for the 2 years.
Instapaper  downloaded  paper  conference  Confuscianism  Chinese_philosophy  Chinese_intellectuals  New_Confucianism  Asia-Pacific  Asian_philosophy  Chinese_politics  China-international_relations  transnational_elites  virtue_ethics  from instapaper
may 2016 by dunnettreader
Poul F. Kjaer - The Function of Justification in Transnational Governance (2015) | Academia.edu
WZB Berlin Social Science Center Discussion Papers, SP IV 2015-808, 2015 - Developing a sociological informed social theory perspective, this article asks the question why social praxis’ of justification has moved to the centre-stage within the debate on transnational ordering. In contrast to perspectives which see the relationship between national and transnational forms or ordering as characterised by a zero-sum game, the coevolutionary and mutually reinforcing relationship between national and transnational forms of ordering is emphasised. It is, moreover, argued that this complementarity can be traced back to the fundamentally different function and position of national and transnational forms of ordering in world society. The widespread attempt to analyse transnational developments on the basis of concepts of law and the political which emerged in national contexts are therefore seen as problematic. Instead context adequate concepts of transnational law and politics are needed. It is on this background, that a discourse on justification has emerged in relation to transnational settings. Transnational justificatory praxis’ can be understood as functional equivalents to democracy in transnational settings in so far as both can be understood as reflexivity increasing instruments. The central difference is, however, that democratic frameworks implies an ex ante form of the political in contrast to the ex post emphasis of justificatory praxis’. In addition, law gains a central role as the framework through which justificatory praxis’ are structured in transnational settings. - downloaded pdf to Note
paper  Academia.edu  downloaded  sociology_of_law  political_sociology  nation-state  transnational_power  transnational_law  nation-state_decline  state-transnatiinal_relations  supranational_institutions  legitimacy  legitimacy-international  justice  democracy_deficit  political_participation  IR_theory  IR-domestic_politics  global_governance  regulation-harmonization  regulatory_avoidance  civil_society  NGOs  government-forms  government-roles  international_law  international_political_economy  MNCs 
may 2016 by dunnettreader
Price V. Fishback - How Successful Was the New Deal? The Microeconomic Impact of New Deal Spending and Lending Policies in the 1930s | NBER January 2016
NBER Working Paper No. 21925 -- The New Deal during the 1930s was arguably the largest peace-time expansion in federal government activity in American history. Until recently there had been very little quantitative testing of the microeconomic impact of the wide variety of New Deal programs. Over the past decade scholars have developed new panel databases for counties, cities, and states and then used panel data methods on them to examine the examine the impact of New Deal spending and lending policies for the major New Deal programs. In most cases the identification of the effect comes from changes across time within the same geographic location after controlling for national shocks to the economy. Many of the studies also use instrumental variable methods to control for endogeneity. The studies find that public works and relief spending had state income multipliers of around one, increased consumption activity, attracted internal migration, reduced crime rates, and lowered several types of mortality. The farm programs typically aided large farm owners but eliminated opportunities for share croppers, tenants, and farm workers. The Home Owners’ Loan Corporation’s purchases and refinancing of troubled mortgages staved off drops in housing prices and home ownership rates at relatively low ex post cost to taxpayers. The Reconstruction Finance Corporation’s loans to banks and railroads appear to have had little positive impact,although the banks were aided when the RFC took ownership stakes. -- paywall on SSRN
paper  SSRN  paywall  economic_history  20thC  Great_Depression  New_Deal  entre_deux_guerres  Keynesianism  housing  mortgages  banking  agriculture  demand-side  government-roles  government_finance  microeconomics 
february 2016 by dunnettreader
Edward Kane - Theory of How and Why Central-Bank Culture Supports Predatory Risk-Taking at Megabanks | INET (Dec 2015)
This paper applies Schein’s model of organizational culture to financial firms and their prudential regulators. It identifies a series of hard-to-change cultural norms and assumptions that support go-for-broke risk-taking by megabanks that meets the every-day definition of theft. The problem is not to find new ways to constrain this behavior, but to change the norms that support it by establishing that managers of megabanks owe duties of loyalty, competence, and care directly to taxpayers. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  downloaded  financial_system  financial_regulation  norms-business  incentives  incentives-distortions  banking  organizations  firms-theory  firms-structure  firms-organization 
february 2016 by dunnettreader
Stefan Linder, Nicolai J. Foss - Agency Theory :: SSRN April 23, 2013
Stefan Linder, ESSEC Business School -- Nicolai J. Foss, Copenhagen Business School - Department of Strategic Management and Globalization *--* Agency theory studies the problems and solutions linked to delegation of tasks from principals to agents in the context of conflicting interests between the parties. Beginning from clear assumptions about rationality, contracting and informational conditions, the theory addresses problems of ex ante (“hidden characteristics”) as well as ex post information asymmetry (“hidden action”), and examines conditions under which various kinds of incentive instruments and monitoring arrangements can be deployed to minimize the welfare loss. Its clear predictions and broad applicability have allowed agency theory to enjoy considerable scientific impact on social science; however, it has also attracted considerable criticism. -- PDF File: 35 -- Keywords: adverse selection, agency costs, compensation, conflict of interest, contracting, corporate governance, delegation, hidden action, hidden characteristics, incentive intensity, information asymmetry, informativeness, monitoring, moral hazard, motivation, nexus of contracts, pay-for-performance -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  economic_theory  social_sciences-post-WWII  microeconomics  microfoundations  behavioral_economics  incentives  incentives-distortions  agency  agents  game_theory  rational_choice  rationality-economics  rationality-bounded  information-asymmetric  adverse_selection  delegation  moral_psychology  moral_hazard  contracts  principal-agent  downloaded 
january 2016 by dunnettreader
O Blanchard, J D Ostry, AR Ghosh, M Chamon - Macro effects of capital inflows: Capital type matters | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 26 November 2015
Some scholars view capital inflows as contractionary, but many policymakers view them as expansionary. Evidence supports the policymakers. This column introduces an analytic framework that knits together the two views. For a given policy rate, bond inflows lead to currency appreciation and are contractionary, while non-bond inflows lead to an appreciation but also to a decrease in the cost of borrowing, and thus may be expansionary.
paper  capital_flows  emerging_markets  capital_markets  monetary_policy  interest_rates  FX-rate_management  banking  FDI  portfolio  _investment  investors 
november 2015 by dunnettreader
Jan Lorenz, Fabrizio Zilibotti, Michael König - Distance to frontier, productivity distribution and travelling waves | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 19 November 2015
Received wisdom would make you think that you need lots of small firms that are innovating in order to push productivity in an economy. This column provides data suggesting that large firms with high productivity growth can act as technological leaders and supply the economy with a continuous stream of innovations. Overly strong patent protection can significantly reduce growth and increase inequality. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  economic_growth  Innovation  technology-adoption  R&D  productivity  IP  technology_transfer  technology  downloaded 
november 2015 by dunnettreader
Diana Ayala Pena, Milan Nedeljkovic, Christian Saborowski - What Slice of the Pie? The Corporate Bond Market Boom in Emerging Economies | IMF Research - July 2015
This paper studies the determinants of shifts in debt composition among EM non-financial corporates. We show that institutions and macro fundamentals create an enabling environment for bond market development. During the recent boom episode, however, global cyclical factors accounted for most of the variation of bond shares in total corporate debt. The sensitivity to global factors appears to vary with relative bond market size—which we interpret to be associated with liquidity and easy entry and exit—rather than local fundamentals. Foreign bank linkages help explain why bond markets increasingly substituted for banks in channeling liquidity to EMs. Our results highlight the risk of capital flow reversal in EMs that benefited from the upturn in the global financial cycle mostly due to their liquid markets rather than strong fundamentals. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  IMF  financial_system  cross-border  emerging_markets  bond_markets  corporate_finance  disintermediation  capital_markets  capital_flows  liquidity  contagion  business_cycles  downloaded 
november 2015 by dunnettreader
Guido Alfani, Wouter Ryckbosch - Income inequality in pre-industrial Europe | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal 06 November 2015
Thomas Piketty and others have prompted renewed interest in understanding long-term patterns of inequality. This column presents evidence from pre-industrial Europe. Inequality rose even during the success stories of early modern Europe, but it can hardly have been the sole requisite for growth. In both economic history and today’s economic theory, the idea of a universal trade-off between growth and inequality needs to be replaced by stronger attention to social processes and institutional developments. -- brief but extensive lit review of how thinking of economic historians has been evolving -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  economic_history  early_modern  Europe-Early_Modern  16thC  17thC  18thC  19thC  economic_growth  inequality  capital_formation  new_institutionalism  institutional_economics  political_economy  state-building  nation-state  human_capital  urbanization  Innovation  Industrial_Revolution  consumer_revolution  consumer_demand  wages  growth-equity_tradeoff  bibliography  downloaded 
november 2015 by dunnettreader
Florence Jaumotte, Carolina Osorio Buitron - Union power and inequality | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 22 October 2015
IMF research department -- Inequality in advanced economies has risen considerably since the 1980s, largely driven by the increase of top earners’ income shares. This column revisits the drivers of inequality, emphasising the role played by changes in labour market institutions. It argues that the decline in union density has been strongly associated with the rise of top income inequality and discusses the multiple channels through which unionisation matters for income distribution. -- very interesting all the variables they looked at and excluded -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  political_economy  economic_history  20thC  21stC  OECD_economies  post-Cold_War  labor_share  labor_law  unions  executive_compensation  inequality  wages  wages-minimum  downloaded 
october 2015 by dunnettreader
Miriam Sapiro - Transatlantic trade and investment negotiations: Reaching a consensus on ISDS | Brookings Institution - October 2015
Two steps can accelerate this process. First, US and EU negotiating teams should reach agreement on a number of key principles ** There should be a neutral forum for adjudication, independent of the potential for bias inherent in a host state’s legal system.** An arbitration tribunal should operate under established principles of international law with consistency and predictability. ** The arbitrators should be beyond reproach in terms of independence, impartiality, and integrity. ** The tribunal should have the authority to dismiss frivolous and other non-meritorious claims early in the process. ** The proceedings should be transparent and open to the public. ** An option for annulment, and possibly appeal, should be considered. Second, (..) the US and the EU should appoint a senior group of experts to review in detail several of the more provocative proposals that have been put forward by the EU—such as creating an appellate mechanism for TTIP or, more broadly, an international ISDS court. This should be a broad group of experts representing a range of academic, legal, business, public interest, and other expertise, and reflecting deep knowledge of international investment law, arbitration rules, and judicial and regulatory decision-making. To build greater public support, the group should include voices that support modifications as well as oppose them, in an effort to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the various options, and to identify consensus where possible. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  trade-agreements  ISDS  EU  EU_governance  Transatlantic_Trade_and_InvestmentPartnership  transparency  public_goods  investment-bilateral_treaties  investment  FDI  regulation  regulation-enforcement  regulation-costs  regulation-harmonization  environment  public_health  legal_remedies  legal_system  arbitration  international_law  international_political_economy  appellate_review  downloaded 
october 2015 by dunnettreader
Brian Leiter - The Death of God and the Death of Morality [Nietzsche] :: SSRN - September 16, 2015
University of Chicago -' Nietzsche famously proclaimed the "death of God," but in so doing it was not God's death that was really notable -- Nietzsche assumes that most reflective, modern readers realize that "the belief in the Christian god has become unbelievable" (GS 343) -- but the implications of that belief becoming unbelievable, namely, "how much must collapse now that this faith has been undermined," in particular, "the whole of our European morality" (GS 343). What is the connection between the death of God and the death of morality? I argue that Nietzsche thinks the death of God will undermine two central aspects of our morality: its moral egalitarianism, and its belief in moral responsibility and warranted guilt. I offer an account of how Nietzsche sees the connections, and conclude with some skeptical considerations about whether Nietzsche was right that atheism would, in fact, undermine morality. -- Number of Pages in PDF File: 25 -- Keywords: Nietzsche, theism, morality -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  moral_philosophy  religious_belief  religious_culture  19thC  Nietzsche  theism  atheism  God-existence  moral_psychology  morality-Nietzche  morality-divine_command  morality-Christian  morality-conventional  morality-objective  Kant-ethics  egalitarian  guilt  norms  obligation  responsibility  free_will  downloaded 
october 2015 by dunnettreader
Lu Ming - Myths and Realities of China’s Urbanization | Paulson Institute - August 2015
as a direct result of these deeply held beliefs, Beijing has relied on administrative controls, not market mechanisms, to direct China’s urbanization process (...) has yielded some major deficiencies in China’s overall urbanization policy. (..) Beijing has imposed tight hukou controls on the country’s biggest cities, thus restricting their ability to grow. Second, the Chinese government has relied excessively on administrative power to accelerate urbanization in China’s central and western regions, even though people are, in fact, moving largely to the country’s coastal areas. Third, Beijing has encouraged the development of small and medium sized cities, but these are usually scattered far away from regional economic centers. Lu’s memo proposes several adjustments aimed at mitigating the distorted economic effects of the policies that have flowed from these misunderstandings. Five specific areas of China’s current urbanization policy require changes, says Lu. These are: (1) China’s hukou system; (2) the way that China allocates construction land quotas; (3) China’s fiscal transfer payment system; (4) the use of economic growth and tax revenue targets in the evaluation and promotion system for officials and cadres; and (5) the use of planning tools in metropolitan areas and urban cores. Lu makes a number of policy recommendations in each of these five areas, arguing that only in this way can China effectively respond to the challenges that have bedeviled urbanization in other countries. -- didn't download
paper  China  China-economy  China-governance  urbanization  urban_development  safety_net  land_use_planning  local_government  fiscal_policy  incentives-distortions 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens, Damien Puy - Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 09 September 2015
Recent economic and financial events, such as the ‘taper tantrum’, have highlighted again the relevance of global factors in driving capital flows to emerging markets. This column suggests that capital flows to emerging markets move in part due to global push factors. However, sensitivity to these push factors differs greatly across types of flows and emerging markets. How much push factors affect individual emerging markets depends on their local liquidity and the composition of their foreign investor bases. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are significantly more affected by changes in push factors.
paper  emerging_markets  capital_flows  credit_booms  contagion  hot_money  institutional_investors 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Robert Kosowski, Juha Joenväärä - Regulation and fund performance: New evidence | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 14 September 2015
In the aftermath of the Global Crisis, there have been many regulatory initiatives targeting financial institutions, especially investment funds. This column sheds light on the costs and benefits of increased financial regulation. The findings show that the indirect cost of regulation of alternative funds such as UCITS is around 2% per annum in terms of risk-adjusted returns. Policymakers should therefore carefully consider the effect of higher liquidity requirements on the returns that alternative investment funds can generate.
paper  financial_regulation  institutional_investors  NBFI 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Hiroshi Yoshikawa, Hideaki Aoyama, Yoshi Fujiwara, Hiroshi Iyetomi - Deflation and money | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 05 September 2015
Deation and inflation are macroeconomic phenomena. However, we cannot fully understand them by only exploring macro data because the behavior of aggregate prices such as the Consumer Price Index depends crucially on the interactions of micro prices. On the other hand, all in all, the results we obtained have confirmed that aggregate prices significantly change, either upward or downward, as the level of real output changes. The correlation between aggregate prices and money, on the other hand, is not significant. The major factors affecting aggregate prices other than the level of real economic activity are the exchange rate and the prices of raw materials represented by the price of oil. Japan suffered from deflation for more than a decade beginning at the end of the last century. More recently, Europe faces a threat of deflation. Our analysis suggests that it is difficult to combat deflation only by expanding the money supply.
paper  prices  deflation  economic_growth  recessions  monetary_policy-effectiveness  QE  central_banks  Japan  FX-rate_management  oil_price  macroeconomics  unemployment 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Aida Caldera, Mikkel Hermansen, Oliver Röhn - Economic resilience: A new set of vulnerability indicators | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 19 September 2015
The Global Crisis and its high costs have revived interest in early warning indicators of economic risks. This column presents a new set of indicators to detect vulnerabilities and assess country-specific risks of suffering a crisis. The empirical evidence confirms the usefulness of the vulnerability indicators in warning of severe recessions and crises in OECD countries. But indicators are no silver bullet and should be complemented with other monitoring tools, including expert judgement. -- paper giving overview of OECD Program working on indicators of upcoming crises and macro policies that could be adopted to head off crises -- stress on linkages across 6 clusters of economic activity and potential vulnerabilities -- in tuning indicators, looking at trade off between false positives and insufficient strength of negative signals, and the costs of responding to false positives vs failing to respond to warning flags -- also trying to see how, via linkages, prudential measures in one area might reduce vulnerabilities in other areas, so not left with only the blunt instrument of monetary policy
paper  OECD  OECD_economies  BRICS  business_cycles  recessions  macroeconomic_policy  macroeconomics  macroprudential_policies  financial_system  financial_crisis  credit_booms  fiscal_policy  FX-misalignment  capital_flows  housing  FDI  forecasts 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Joram Mayshar, Omer Moav, Zvika Neeman, Luigi Pascali - The Neolithic roots of economic institutions | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 11 September 2015
Conventional theory suggests that hierarchy and state institutions emerged due to increased productivity following the Neolithic transition to farming. This column argues that these social developments were a result of an increase in the ability of both robbers and the emergent elite to appropriate crops. Hierarchy and state institutions developed, therefore, only in regions where appropriable cereal crops had sufficient productivity advantage over non-appropriable roots and tubers. -- I.e. Eurasia, not Sub-Saharan Africa
paper  economic_history  pre-historical_people  development  institutional_economics  institutions  state-building  state-roles  agriculture  elites  violence  hierarchy  Sub-Saharan_Africa  geography  geography-and-economics 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Jared P. Friedman and Anthony I. Jack - Mapping cognitive structure onto philosophical debate re problems of consciousness, free will and ethics | Minds Online - Sept 2015 - Session 1 - Social Cognition
Mapping cognitive structure onto the landscape of philosophical debate: An empirical framework with relevance to problems of consciousness, free will and ethics -- Department of Philosophy and Inamori International Center for Ethics and Excellence, Case Western Reserve University -- There are some seemingly intractable questions that have remained at the heart of philosophical discourse since they were first asked. Is the mind distinct from the brain or are we just physical stuff? Are we autonomous agents or merely at the mercy of the causal and mechanistic laws of nature? When, if ever, is it acceptable to sacrifice one for the greater good of many? That these questions have remained at the heart of philosophy for so long, and that their ‘solutions’ (e.g., monism vs. dualism) seem to be incommensurable with each other, strikes us as enigmatic. Might the intractable nature of these and other appropriately identified problems reflect something peculiar about us rather than something peculiar about the way the world is? (...) This account maintains that the difficulties reconciling markedly different philosophical responses to these three questions arise from an unavoidable tension between two anatomically independent and functionally inhibitory neural networks, both of which are essential to human understanding. This account is motivated by the observation that both philosophers and non-philosophers experience difficulty in reconciling competing responses to these questions. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  conference  cognition  antimonies  consciousness  mind-body  neuroscience  determinism  free_will  naturalism  physicalism  reductionism  causation  moral_philosophy  metaethics  intuitions  brain  experimental_philosophy  analytical_philosophy  James_William  monism  dualism  downloaded 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Ravi Kanbur, Joseph Stiglitz - Wealth and income distribution: New theories needed for a new era | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 18 August 2015
Growth theories traditionally focus on the Kaldor-Kuznets stylised facts. Ravi Kanbur and Nobelist Joe Stiglitz argue that these no longer hold; new theory is needed. The new models need to drop competitive marginal productivity theories of factor returns in favour of rent-generating mechanism and wealth inequality by focusing on the ‘rules of the game.’ They also must model interactions among physical, financial, and human capital that influence the level and evolution of inequality. A third key component will be to capture mechanisms that transmit inequality from generation to generation. -- short and sweet summary of the various gaps in standard models and where both new explanatory and normative work needed -- also see references -- downloaded as pdf to Note
paper  economic_growth  economic_theory  economic_models  capital  productivity-labor_share  production  macroeconomics  distribution-wealth  distribution-income  inequality  inequality-wealth  labor_share  wages  inequality-opportunity  downloaded 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Charles A.E. Goodhart, Enrico Perotti - Containing maturity mismatch | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 10 September 2015
In the last century, real estate funding by banks grew steadily. This column argues that the unprecedented expansion of banking in mortgage lending resulted in a high degree of maturity mismatch. The solution to this problem should focus on greater maturity matching, and not using insured deposits. One avenue to do so is by securitising mortgages with little maturity transformation. Another is to create intermediaries providing mortgage loans where the lender shares in the appreciation, while assuming some risk against the occasional bust. -- downloaded as pdf to Note
paper  banking  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_markets  risk-systemic  markets-structure  real_estate  mortgages  liquidity  money_market  deposit_insurance  disintermediation  maturity_transformation  securitization  institutional_investors  bubbles  Minsky  downloaded 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Objective Principles of Economics by Egmont Kakarot-Handtke :: SSRN - April 2014, update March 2015
University of Stuttgart - Institute of Economics and Law -- Economists have the habit of solving the wrong problem. They speculate circumstantially about the behavior of agents and do not come to grips with the behavior of the monetary economy. This is the consequence of the methodological imperative that all explanations must run in terms of the actions and reactions of individuals. The critical point is that no way leads from the understanding of the interaction of the individuals to the understanding of the working of the economy as a whole. The solution consists in moving from subjective-behavioral axioms to objective-structural axioms, i.e., from proto-scientific past to scientific future. -- Pages in PDF File: 19 -- Keywords: new framework of concepts, structure-centric, axiom set, methodology, complex adaptive system, profit -- for references downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  economic_theory  macroeconomics  microfoundations  methodological_individualism  behavioralism  complex_adaptive_systems  sociology_of_knowledge  sociology_of_science_&_technology  Kuhn  Laktos  scientific_method  bibliography  downloaded 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Egmont Kakarot-Handtke - Make a Bubble, Take a Free Lunch, Break a Bank by :: SSRN - Oct 2012, update May 2015
University of Stuttgart - Institute of Economics and Law -- Standard economics is known to be incapable of integrating the real and the monetary sphere. The ultimate reason is that the whole theoretical edifice is built upon a set of behavioral axioms. Therefore, the formal starting point is moved to structural axioms. This makes it possible to formally track the complete process of value creation and destruction in the asset market and its consequences for the household and business sector. From the set of structural axioms emerge the well-known phenomena of a bubble from free lunches through appreciation to defaults due to a lack of potential next buyers. -- Pages in PDF File: 35 -- Keywords: new framework of concepts, structure-centric, axiom set, profit, rate of interest, liquidity preference, primary market, secondary market, parrot economics, theory of value, valuation price, appreciation, depreciation, net worth, debt/income ratio -- didn't download
paper  SSRN  economic_theory  macroeconomics  financial_system  markets-structure  bubbles  asset_prices  leverage  primary_markets  secondary_markets  liquidity  interest_rates  credit_booms  capital_markets  money_market 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Egmont Kakarot-Handtke - Essentials of Constructive Heterodoxy: Financial Markets :: SSRN - June 2015
University of Stuttgart - Institute of Economics and Law -- What stands before all eyes as failed Orthodoxy is ultimately caused by the wrong answer to Mill's Starting Problem. It is now pretty obvious that one cannot put utility maximization, equilibrium, well-behaved production functions, ergodicity or any other physical or psychological or sociological or behavioral assumption into the premises. No way leads from such premises to the explanation of how the actual market economy works. The logical consequence is to discard them. Having first secured a superior formal starting point, the present paper addresses the question of how the various types of financial markets emerge from the elementary monetary circuit. -- Pages in PDF File: 33 -- Keywords: new framework of concepts, structure-centric, Law of Supply and Demand, Profit Law, IOU, complementarity of retained profit and saving, securities, bonds, common stock, mortgages, consumer financing, helicopter money -- didn't download
paper  SSRN  economic_theory  financial_system  capital_markets  money  profit  credit  asset_prices  investment  mortgages  leverage  consumer_finance  savings  equity-corporate  equity_markets  bond_markets 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Primary and Secondary Markets by Egmont Kakarot-Handtke :: SSRN - Aug 2011, update March 2015
Also Dec 2012 Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper No. 741 -- University of Stuttgart - Institute of Economics and Law -- This paper swaps the standard behavioral axioms for structural axioms and applies the latter to the analysis of the emergence of secondary markets from the flow part of the economy. Real and nominal residuals at first give rise to the accumulation of the stock of money and the stock of commodities. These stocks constitute the demand and supply side of secondary markets. The pricing in these markets is different from the pricing in the primary markets. Realized appreciation in the secondary markets is different from income or profit. To treat primary and secondary markets alike is therefore a category mistake.-- Pages in PDF File: 26 -- Keywords: new framework of concepts, structure-centric, axiom set, residuals, real and monetary stocks, money, credit, financial saving, nonfinancial saving, net worth, financial profit, nonfinancial profit, retained profit, appreciation, wealth -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  economic_theory  macroeconomics  financial_system  markets  markets-structure  primary_markets  secondary_markets  asset_prices  profit  investment  interest_rates  savings  capital_gains  money  wealth  credit  liquidity  downloaded 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Egmont Kakarot-Handtke - Schumpeter and the Essence of Profit :: SSRN - May 2011, update May 2015
University of Stuttgart - Institute of Economics and Law -- Schumpeter had a clear vision of the developing economy, but he did not formalize it. The quest for a germane formal basis is in the following guided by the general question: what is the minimum set of foundational propositions for a consistent reconstruction of the evolving money economy? We start with three structural axioms. The claim of generality entails that it should be possible to free Schumpeter’s approach from its irksome Walrasian legacy and to give a consistent formal account of the elementary circular flow that served him as a backdrop for the analysis of the entrepreneur-driven market system. -- Pages in PDF File: 28 -- Keywords: new framework of concepts, structure-centric, axiom set, profit, money, credit, structural stress, catching-up process, monopoly -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  economic_theory  economic_history  intellectual_history  19thC  20thC  Schumpeter  economic_growth  economic_sociology  entrepreneurs  profit  investment  Innovation  creative_destruction  money  markets-structure  monopoly  prices  firms-theory  neoclassical_economics  equilibrium  downloaded 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Egmont Kakarot-Handtke - Economics for Economists :: SSRN - update April 2015
University of Stuttgart - Institute of Economics and Law -- The characteristic capability of science – to turn whatever it might touch into knowledge – seems to have eluded economics. Currently, economists do not understand how the economy works. To get out of the cul-de-sac requires a paradigm shift. It consists in replacing behavioral axioms by structural axioms. The subject matter of theoretical economics is not human behavior but systemic behavior. From the structural analysis follows a new Law of Supply and Demand and a new Profit Law for the economy as a whole. The conventional supply-demand-equilibrium approach is refuted. This implies that the reliance on the spontaneous order metaphor is unfounded. -' Number of Pages in PDF File: 29 -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  economic_theory  macroeconomics  profit  equilibrium  behavioralism  agency-structure  agent-based_models  downloaded 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Michael Cragg and Rand Ghayad - Growing Apart: The Evolution of Income vs. Wealth Inequality | The Economists' Voice - July 2015
Michael Cragg and Rand Ghayad are employed by The Brattle Group. -- The gap between the richest Americans and the rest of the nation has changed dramatically over the past three decades – becoming one of the most challenging political and economic trends for the nation. For decades prior to that, the distribution of wealth and income had been relatively stable, so much that a central problem posed in the economics literature was to explain this stability. But beginning in the early 1980s, inequality began to grow rapidly and has recently been attracting substantial attention from policymakers and researchers reflecting a widespread concern that reflecting a widespread concern that growing labor incomes of senior executives, finance professionals, and successful entrepreneurs is entailing large economic costs to society. The dominant paradigm in the media and Washington is that inequality is purely a matter of divergence in earned (labor) income inequality which can be ameliorated by making earned income taxes more progressive and shifting spending to help the poorer. However, this is not the story: wealth inequality, as it turns out, is much worse. This warrants emphasis for a variety of reasons: (1) a growing body of research that suggests that in the head-on comparison it is wealth inequality, rather than income inequality or poverty that has a negative, statistically significant effect on economic growth.1 (2) Historically societies have failed when wealth has become overly concentrated; and (3) the wedge between earned and unearned income tax rates reduces progressivity as capital income rises. We offer a number of solutions which should generate debate amongst economists as they test conventional wisdom.
paper  paywall  economic_history  economic_growth  inequality  inequality-wealth  labor_share  wages 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, Alan Taylor - Leveraged bubbles | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 01 September 2015
The risk that asset price bubbles pose for financial stability is still not clear. Drawing on 140 years of data, this column argues that leverage is the critical determinant of crisis damage. When fuelled by credit booms, asset price bubbles are associated with high financial crisis risk; upon collapse, they coincide with weaker growth and slower recoveries. Highly leveraged housing bubbles are the worst case of all. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  bubbles  asset_prices  leverage  credit_booms  housing  financial_crisis  downloaded 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
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