dunnettreader + global_economy   86

Brad Setser » Splitting out Emerging Economies Changes the Picture on Global Trade | Follow the Money - Oct 2016
The Financial Times’ Big Read feature on hidden trade barriers included a chart showing the growth in trade relative to the growth of the world economy. The…
trade  trade-policy  global_economy  emerging_markets  free_trade  OECD_economies  from instapaper
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Peter A.G. van Bergeijk - The heterogeneity of world trade collapses
Abstract
This paper analyses drivers of imports during the major world trade collapses of the Great Depression (1930s; 34 countries) and the Great Recession (1930s; 173 countries). The analysis deals with the first year of these episodes and develops a small empirical model that shows a significant impact of the development of GDP, the share of manufacturing goods in total imports and the political system. The analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity with respect to regional importance of these drivers. -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
public_policy  political_participation  economic_growth  global_economy  economic_history  political_economy  trade-policy  paper  institutions  government-forms  business-and-politics  international_political_economy  global_system  downloaded  trade  Great_Recession 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Stitching together the global financial safety net | Bank Underground - July 2016
https://bankunderground.co.uk/2016/07/22/stitching-together-the-global-financial-safety-net/ - Very useful sketch of the various mechanisms, especially central bank swaps, that were put in place during the early part of the financial crisis that kept liquidity shocks from turning into a global crash - additional mechanism designed since then, with lots of attention on regional arrangements, and a boost to the IMF's capital. Still concerns re holes in the safety net - especially if there's contagion that's region-wide - and concerns that developing economies may not have access to sufficient resources to manage sudden stops. .
Instapaper  global_economy  international_monetary_system  international_finance  financial_crisis  capital_flows  central_banks  IMF  emerging_markets  contagion  from instapaper
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Atif R. Mian, Amir Sufi, Emil Verner - Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide | NBER - Sept 2015
An increase in the household debt to GDP ratio in the medium run predicts lower subsequent GDP growth, higher unemployment, and negative growth forecasting errors in a panel of 30 countries from 1960 to 2012. Consistent with the “credit supply hypothesis,” we show that low mortgage spreads predict an increase in the household debt to GDP ratio and a decline in subsequent GDP growth when used as an instrument. The negative relation between the change in household debt to GDP and subsequent output growth is stronger for countries that face stricter monetary policy constraints as measured by a less flexible exchange rate regime, proximity to the zero lower bound, or more external borrowing. A rise in the household debt to GDP ratio is contemporaneously associated with a consumption boom followed by a reversal in the trade deficit as imports collapse. We also uncover a global household debt cycle that partly predicts the severity of the global growth slowdown after 2007. Countries with a household debt cycle more correlated with the global household debt cycle experience a sharper decline in growth after an increase in domestic household debt.
paper  paywall  NBER  economic_history  post-WWII  housing  house_prices  mortgages  interest_rates  business_cycles  debt_crisis  debt-overhang  debt-restructuring  macroeconomic_policy  consumer_demand  global_economy  global_financial_cycle  economic_growth 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Christopher Dickey - Confederate Madness Then and Now | The Daily Beast - July 216
Pimping his new book - history of British consul in Charleston who had a front row seat to the arrogant brutality of the slave-holding elite, how they were eager for secession if they didn't dominate the federal government, and thought that since King Cotton ruled the global economy, they'd be able to count on support from the European powers. His lead character, while socializing with the elites sent a steady stream of reports back to Foreign & Colonial about the real situation and the barbaric attitudes and conduct of those elites. - Dickey suggests that his guy's info made a difference in London anytime it looked there might be wavering in British policy- taking into account Britain’s immediate economic pain and/or assessment of how the Union was likely to prevail. He also apparently thinks his guy's reports in a few years before secession helped spur the British to accelerate the search for alternatives to the South as a supply source. -- The hook of the article is getting rid of the Confederate flag - and how, now as then, Southern leaders have been able to stir up racism among the lower class whites to see their culture under existential threat and pursue policies and violence that run counter to their objective interests. He wants to stop the elimination of Confederate commemoration to the flag - and leave the statues and monuments as a way of remembering the hideous moral monsters who drove the South to ruin. He doesn't address the issue of how those monuments will be used to glorify the "heroes" of the Lost Cayse.
Instapaper  US_history  US_politics  British_foreign_policy  US_Civil_War  slavery  abolition  slave_trade  cotton  Industrial_Revolution  US_politics-race  British_Navy  British_Empire  imperialism  global_economy  popular_culture  popular_politics  Southern_states  Confederacy  diplomatic_history  from instapaper
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Eggertsson, Mehrotra, Singh & Summers - A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation | NBER June 2016
Gauti B. Eggertsson, Neil R. Mehrotra, Sanjay R. Singh, Lawrence H. Summers - Conditions of secular stagnation - low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth - characterize much of the global economy. We consider an overlapping generations, open economy model of secular stagnation, and examine the effect of capital flows on the transmission of stagnation. In a world with a low natural rate of interest, greater capital integration transmits recessions across countries as opposed to lower interest rates. In a global secular stagnation, expansionary fiscal policy carries positive spillovers implying gains from coordination, and fiscal policy is self-financing. Expansionary monetary policy, by contrast, is beggar-thy-neighbor with output gains in one country coming at the expense of the other. Similarly, we find that competitiveness policies including structural labor market reforms or neomercantilist trade policies are also beggar-thy-neighbor in a global secular stagnation.
economic_theory  interest_rates  stagnation  economic_growth  OECD_economies  paywall  capital_flows  paper  international_finance  global_economy  contagion  monetary_policy  FX-rate_management  international_political_economy  competition-interstate  fiscal_policy  fiscal_multipliers  trade-policy  Labor_markets  austerity  competiveness-labor  wages  labor_standards 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian - Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint? | IMF Staff Papers - Jan 2009
IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 112–138. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.29; published online 6 January 2009 -- The stylized fact that there is no correlation between long-run economic growth and financial globalization has spawned a recent literature that purports to provide newer evidence and arguments in favor of financial globalization. We review this literature and find it unconvincing. The underlying assumptions in this literature are that developing countries are savings-constrained; that access to foreign finance alleviates this to boost investment and long-run growth; and that insofar as there are problems with financial globalization, these can be remedied through deep institutional reforms. In contrast, we argue that developing economies are as or more likely to be investment- than savings-constrained and that the effect of foreign finance is often to aggravate this investment constraint by appreciating the real exchange rate and reducing profitability and investment opportunities in the traded goods sector, which have adverse long-run growth consequences. It is time for a new paradigm on financial globalization, and one that recognizes that more is not necessarily better. Depending on context and country, the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital inflows as to encourage them. Policymakers who view their challenges exclusively from the latter perspective risk getting it badly wrong. - downloaded pdf to Note
paper  downloaded  IMF  international_political_economy  international_finance  global_economy  emerging_markets  LDCs  capital_flows  investment  investment-government  development  economic_growth  economic_policy  economic_reform  access_to_finance  capital_controls  FX-misalignment  FX-rate_management  economic_theory  macroeconomics  international_economics  financial_economics  financial_sector_development 
may 2016 by dunnettreader
Willem Thorbecke - “Exports, Exchange Rates, and the Return on China’s Investments” - Econbrowser - May 2016
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke , Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The…
Instapaper  China  China-economy  industrialization  global_imbalance  economic_growth  supply_chains  exports  trade-policy  trade  global_economy  FX  from instapaper
may 2016 by dunnettreader
Symposium: The Bailouts of 2007-2009 (Spring 2015) | AEAweb: Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol. 29 No.2
Austan D. Goolsbee and Alan B. Krueger - A Retrospective Look at Rescuing and Restructuring General Motors and Chrysler (pp. 3-24) **--** W. Scott Frame, Andreas Fuster, Joseph Tracy and James Vickery - The Rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (pp. 25-52) **--** Charles W. Calomiris and Urooj Khan - An Assessment of TARP Assistance to Financial Institutions (pp. 53-80) **--** Robert McDonald and Anna Paulson - AIG in Hindsight (pp. 81-106) **--** Phillip Swagel - Legal, Political, and Institutional Constraints on the Financial Crisis Policy Response (pp. 107-22) -- available online, didn't download
article  journals-academic  financial_system  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  bailouts  bail-ins  capitalism-systemic_crisis  capital_markets  banking  bank_runs  shadow_banking  NBFI  securitization  credit_booms  credit_ratings  incentives-distortions  public-private_partnerships  Fannie_Mae  housing  leverage  financial_system-government_back-stop  financial_innovation  firesales  liquidity  asset_prices  Fed  lender-of-last-resort  regulatory_capture  regulatory_avoidance  credit_crunch  bankruptcy  government_agencies  government_finance  global_economy  global_governance  international_finance  international_monetary_system  international_crisis  property_rights  derivatives  clearing_&_settlement  GSEs  bubbles 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Tim O'Reilly - The WTF Economy
We need a focused, high-level conversation about the deep ways in which computers and their ilk are transforming how we do business, how we work, and how we live. Just about everyone’s asking WTF? (“What the F***?” but also, more charitably “What’s the future?”) That’s why I’m launching a new event called Next:Economy (What’s The Future of Work?), to be held at the Palace Hotel in San Francisco Nov 12 and 13, 2015. My goal is to shed light on the transformation in the nature of work now being driven by algorithms, big data, robotics, and the on-demand economy.
politics-and-technology  careers  Tech/Culture  labor  global_economy  gig_economy  state-and-technology  Labor_markets  globalization  education-continuing  conference  tech-mobile_phones  Pocket  labor_standards  education-training  from pocket
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Financial Market Trends - OECD Journal - Home page | OECD
‌The articles in Financial Market Trends focus on trends and prospects in the international and major domestic financial markets and structural issues and developments in financial markets and the financial sector. This includes financial market regulation, bond markets and public debt management, insurance and private pensions, as well as financial statistics. -- links to the contents of each issue of the journal
journal  website  paper  financial_system  global_economy  global_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_markets  risk-systemic  international_finance  banking  NBFI  insurance  markets-structure  risk_assessment  risk_management  sovereign_debt  corporate_finance  corporate_governance  institutional_investors  pensions  consumer_protection  equity-corporate  equity_markets  debt  debt-overhang  leverage  capital_flows  capital_adequacy  financial_economics  financial_innovation  financial_system-government_back-stop  bailouts  too-big-to-fail  cross-border  regulation-harmonization  regulation-costs  statistics 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
VOX ebook -The Age of Global Value Chains: Maps and Policy Issues | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal -July 2015
João Amador, Filippo di Mauro -- Global value chains (GVCs) - referring to the cross-border flows of goods, investment, services, know-how and people associated with international production networks - have transformed the world. Their emergence has resulted in a complete reconfiguration of world trade, bearing a strong impact on the assessment of competitiveness and economic policy. The contributions to this eBook are based on research carried out within the scope of the Eurosystem Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet), bringing together participants from EU national central banks, universities and international organisations interested in competitiveness issues. The mapping of GVCs and full awareness about their implications are essential to informed public debate and improved economic policy.-- downloaded pdf to Note
books  global_economy  cross-border  globalization  supply_chains  global_value_chains  economic_sociology  trade-policy  competitiveness  competition-interstate  manufacturing  transport  transaction_costs  tax_policy  business_practices  business_processes  economic_policy  development  development-impact  labor_standards  Labor_markets  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Brad DeLomg - German Economic Thought and the European Crisis - Washington Center for Equitable Growth - July 2017
It is a commonplace among Anglo-Saxon economists that Saxon-Saxon “ordoliberalism” was a post-World War II success only because somebody else–the United… DeLong remarks on his link to the article on why the European Crisis was inevitable given German economic theory -- that the German economists have attributed the country's economic success to ordoliberalism and German virtue when it was based on an incredibly favorable environment and policy postures by the US as global hegemon. Instapaper
Instapaper  economic_history  Germany  international_monetary_system  global_economy  post-WWII  trade-policy  global_imbalance  hegemony  Marshall_Plan  sovereign_debt  export-led  Germany-Eurozone  ordoliberalism  Keynesianism  austerity  budget_deficit  FX  FX-misalignment  Greece-Troika  economic_theory  economic_culture  economic_policy  macroeconomics  from instapaper
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Sustainable development: Report of UN Working Group on business and human rights - June 2015
Sustainable development: UN expert group calls for accountability of public and private sectors -- GENEVA (16 June 2015) – The United Nations Working Group on business and human rights today urged the UN system and all its member states to make globalization inclusive and aligned with human rights, and called for full accountability of public and private sectors’ activities in that regard. The expert’s call comes as a number of key international negotiations are taking place on sustainable development goals for the world, development financing and the climate change, as well as a number of policy talks on trade, finance and investment. -- downloaded pdf to Note
report  UN  human_rights  business_practices  business-norms  business-ethics  FDI  investment-socially_responsible  investor-State_disputes  investment-bilateral_treaties  supply_chains  sustainability  global_governance  global_economy  public_goods  public_health  public-private_partnerships  NGOs  civil_society  accountability  international_law  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Olaf Merk - The Impact of Mega-Ships | OECD Insights Blog - June 2015
Ports and Shipping, International Transport Forum (ITF) at the OECD. -- A new publication by the ITF assesses the impacts of these giant container ships. -- Our research casts serious doubts over whether this capacity can in fact be filled. We found a disconnect between what is going on in the boardrooms of shipping lines and the real world. -- There are also several supply chain costs and risks related to mega-ships. There are adaptations needed to infrastructure and equipment: ...cranes, quays, access channels... Mega-ships stay on average 20% longer in ports – ... this requires massive efforts to accommodate these longer-stay guests. The higher risks associated with mega-ships are linked to difficulties in insuring and salvaging ... (..)more cargo is concentrated on a single ship, leading to lower service frequencies and lower supply chain resilience (..) decision-making by ports and countries should be more balanced. Many public policies stimulate mega-ship use, but public benefits are limited whereas public costs can be high. This should change, first by aligning incentives to public interests. For example, not to have port tariffs that cross-subsidise mega-ships, to clarify state aid rules for ports, increase their financial transparency and possibly link state aid for shipping companies to commitments to share in certain costs (e.g. dredging). Another way would be to increase collaboration at regional level, between countries, ports and regulators. This might include coordination of port development and investment, possibly port mergers and more national or supra-national planning and focus. -- didn't download
report  OECD  global_economy  transport  maritime_issues  shipping  ports  infrastructure  supply_chains  risk_management  insurance  trade-policy  globalization  regional_blocs  regulation-harmonization  labor_standards 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Jeffrey A. Bader - Changing China policy: Are we in search of enemies? | Brookings Institution
East Asia has avoided major military conflicts since the 1970s. After the United States fought three wars in the preceding four decades originating in East Asia, with a quarter of a million lost American lives, this is no small achievement. It is owing to the maturity and good sense of most of the states of the region, their emphasis on economic growth over settling scores, and the American alliances and security presence that have deterred military action and provided comfort to most peoples and states. But above all else, it is due to the reconciliation of the Asia-Pacific’s major powers, the United States, and China, initiated by Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger and nurtured by every American administration and Chinese leadership since. In the inaugural Brookings China Strategy Paper, Jeff Bader evaluates the recent rhetoric towards China, and argues that the United States and China should work out their differences in a way that promotes continued economic dynamism and lowers tensions in the region. Jeffrey Bader is the John C. Whitehead Senior Fellow in International Diplomacy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. From 2009 until 2011, Bader was special assistant to the president of the United States for national security affairs at the National Security Council. In that capacity, he was the principal advisor to President Obama on Asia. Bader served from 2005 to 2009 as the director of the China Initiative and subsequently as the first director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. His latest book, "Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy," was published by Brookings Institution Press in March 2012. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  US_foreign_policy  China-international_relations  maritime_issues  East_Asia  US-China  diplomacy  US_military  US_politics  international_political_economy  global_economy  global_system  global_governance  NPT  IR  multilateralism  hegemony  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Charles A.E. Goodhart, Philipp Erfurth - Monetary policy and long-term trends | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 03 November 2014
There has been a long-term downward trend in labour’s share of national income, depressing both demand and inflation, and thus prompting ever more expansionary monetary policies. This column argues that, while understandable in a short-term business cycle context, this has exacerbated longer-term trends, increasing inequality and financial distortions. Perhaps the most fundamental problem has been over-reliance on debt finance. The authors propose policies to raise the share of equity finance in housing markets; such reforms could be extended to other sectors of the economy. -- downloaded page as pdf to Note
macroeconomics  global_economy  globalization  labor_share  Labor_markets  inequality-global  inequality  inequality-wealth  OECD_economies  wages  housing  mortgages  debt  debt-overhang  asset_prices  interest_rates  bubbles  real_estate  equity-corporate  equity_markets  central_banks  monetary_policy  financial_system  financial_crisis  LTV  downloaded 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Toby Nangle - Labour power sets the neutral real rate | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 09 May 2015
The recent remarkably low interest rates have puzzled economists. The standard explanation rests on the extraordinary manoeuvres of the world’s largest central banks. This column argues, however, that it is due to economic developments, specifically globalisation and the collapse in labour power in the west. -- downloaded page as pdf to Note
macroeconomics  global_economy  globalization  labor_share  Labor_markets  inequality-global  inequality  OECD_economies  interest_rates  asset_prices  investment  capital  stagnation  central_banks  capital_markets  China-economy  off-shoring  downloaded 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Joseph Adelson, review essay - What Caused Capitalism? | Foreign Affairs - May 2015
Once upon a time, smart people thought the world was flat. As globalization took off, economists pointed to spreading market forces that… Includes new Cambridge History of Capitalism, Mokyr Enlightened Economy, Acemoglu and Robinson Why Nations Fail, and Beckert Empire of Cotton -- contrasts tales that are, in broad brush, optimistic and internalist re origins (especially Mokyr) vs pessimistic and externalist (especially Cotton) -- copied to Instapaper
books  reviews  bookshelf  economic_history  capitalism  Great_Divergence  ancient_history  global_economy  global_history  global_system  Europe-Early_Modern  city_states  Italy  Spain  France  British_history  India  US_history  colonialism  imperialism  empires  institutional_economics  technology  development  Scientific_Revolution  Industrial_Revolution  industrialization  industrial_policy  US_Civil_War  slavery  property  property_rights  mercantilism  mercantilism-violence  Instapaper  markets  political_economy  economic_culture  economic_growth  from instapaper
may 2015 by dunnettreader
George Serafeim - The Role of the Corporation in Society: An Alternative View and Opportunities for Future Research b(revised June 2014) :: SSRN
Harvard University - Harvard Business School *--* A long-standing ideology in business education has been that a corporation is run for the sole interest of its shareholders. I present an alternative view where increasing concentration of economic activity and power in the world’s largest corporations, the Global 1000, has opened the way for managers to consider the interests of a broader set of stakeholders rather than only shareholders. Having documented that this alternative view better fits actual corporate conduct, I discuss opportunities for future research. Specifically, I call for research on the materiality of environmental and social issues for the future financial performance of corporations, the design of incentive and control systems to guide strategy execution, corporate reporting, and the role of investors in this new paradigm. -- Pages in PDF File: 27 -- Keywords: corporate performance, corporate size, sustainability, corporate social responsibility, accounting -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  corporate_governance  corporate_citizenship  global_economy  global_governance  international_political_economy  shareholder_value  shareholders  CSR  disclosure  accountability  accounting  institutional_economics  institutional_investors  incentives  institutional_change  long-term_orientation  business-and-politics  business-norms  business_practices  business_influence  sustainability  MNCs  firms-theory  firms-structure  firms-organization  power  power-concentration  concentration-industry  downloaded 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Anna Plassart - The Scottish Enlightenment and the French Revolution (to be released April 2015) | Ideas in Context series | Cambridge University Press
Historians of ideas have traditionally discussed the significance of the French Revolution through the prism of several major interpretations, including the commentaries of Burke, Tocqueville and Marx. This book argues that the Scottish Enlightenment offered an alternative and equally powerful interpretative framework for the Revolution, which focused on the transformation of the polite, civilised moeurs that had defined the 'modernity' analysed by Hume and Smith in the 18thC. The Scots observed what they understood as a military- and democracy-led transformation of European modern morals and concluded that the real historical significance of the Revolution lay in the transformation of warfare, national feelings and relations between states, war and commerce that characterised the post-revolutionary international order. This book recovers the Scottish philosophers' powerful discussion of the nature of post-revolutionary modernity and shows that it is essential to our understanding of 19thC political thought. **--** Part I. The Burke–Paine Debate and Scotland's Science of Man: 1. The Burke–Paine debate and the Scottish Enlightenment *-* 2. The heritage of Hume and Smith: Scotland's science of man and politics **--** Part II. The 1790s: 3. Scotland's political debate *-* 4. James Mackintosh and Scottish philosophical history *-* 5. John Millar and the Scottish discussion on war, modern sociability and national sentiment *-* 6. Adam Ferguson on democracy and empire **--** Part III. 1802–15: 7. The French Revolution and the Edinburgh Review *-* 8. Commerce, war and empire
books  find  intellectual_history  political_philosophy  political_economy  18thC  19thC  British_history  Scottish_Enlightenment  French_Revolution  Smith  Hume  Hume-politics  civil_society  civilizing_process  commerce  commerce-doux  science_of_man  social_sciences  IR_theory  French_Revolutionary_Wars  Napoleonic_Wars  nationalism  national_ID  historiography-18thC  historiography-Whig  military  Military_Revolution  mass_culture  levée_en_masse  conscription  sociability  social_order  empires  empire-and_business  imperialism  Great_Powers  balance_of_power  philosophy_of_history  progress  social_theory  change-social  change-economic  Burke  Paine  Mackintosh_James  Millar_John  Edinburgh_Review  British_Empire  British_foreign_policy  Scottish_politics  1790s  1800s  1810s  international_political_economy  international_system  international_law  democracy  morality-conventional  norms  global_economy  mercantilism 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
James Hamilton - Demand factors in the collapse of oil prices | Econbrowser Jan 2015
update of his analysis from a month ago - still sees c. 40% of price declines across commodities from slowing hlobal economy with exception of US
global_economy  US_economy  Eurozone  China  oil_price  economic_growth  energy  consumer_demand  commodities 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Ronald B. Davies, Julien Martin, Mathieu Parenti, Farid Toubal - Multinational firms and transfer pricing: New evidence | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 05 January 2015
Allegations of tax-avoiding transfer pricing by multinational firms are common, but economic evidence is scarce. This column discusses detailed price data for intra-firm and arm’s length transactions that reveals tax-driven transfer pricing, and suggests that it may be reduced by focusing on a small number of large firms in a small number of tax havens.
US_govetnment  global_economy  taxes  tax_havens  MNCs  transfer_pricing 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
SNB working paper - Konrad Adler & Christian Grisse: “Real exchange rates and fundamentals: robustness across alternative model specifications” (Oct 2014) | via The Big Picture
This paper explores the robustness of behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) models, focusing on a panel specification with Swiss franc real bilateral rates as dependent variables. We use Bayesian model averaging to illustrate model uncertainty, and employ real exchange rates computed from price level data to explore robustness to the inclusion or exclusion of fixed effects. We find that the estimated coefficients – and therefore also the implied equilibrium values – are sensitive to (1) the combination of explanatory variables included in the model, (2) the set of currencies included in the panel and (3) the inclusion of fixed effects. Increases in government consumption and net foreign assets and improvements in the terms of trade in Switzerland relative to foreign countries are associated with a Swiss franc real appreciation, as predicted by economic theory. By contrast, several macroeconomic variables commonly thought to be linked to real exchange rates are found not to exhibit a robust relationship with Swiss franc real rates. Our findings can help policymakers in understanding the uncertainty associated with estimates of equilibrium exchange rates. - downloaded to iPhone
economic_theory  macroeconomics  intermational_economics  global_economy  FX  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  central_banks  public_finance  interest_rates  inflation  asset_prices  paper  downloaded 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Kose, Prasad, Rogoff & Wei (2009) - Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal
downloaded to iPhone - see also papers citing this - The literature on the benefits and costs of financial globalization for developing countries has exploded in recent years, but along many disparate channels with a variety of apparently conflicting results. There is still little robust evidence of the growth benefits of broad capital account liberalization, but a number of recent papers in the finance literature report that equity market liberalizations do significantly boost growth. Similarly, evidence based on microeconomic (firm- or industry-level) data shows some benefits of financial integration and the distortionary effects of capital controls, but the macroeconomic evidence remains inconclusive. At the same time, some studies argue that financial globalization enhances macroeconomic stability in developing countries, but others argue the opposite. This paper attempts to provide a unified conceptual framework for organizing this vast and growing literature, particularly emphasizing recent approaches to measuring the catalytic and indirect benefits to financial globalization. Indeed, it argues that the indirect effects of financial globalization on financial sector development, institutions, governance, and macroeconomic stability are likely to be far more important than any direct impact via capital accumulation or portfolio diversification. This perspective explains the failure of research based on cross-country growth regressions to find the expected positive effects of financial globalization and points to newer approaches that are potentially more useful and convincing.
credit  financial_innovation  spreads  financial_crisis  contagion  investment  financial_sector_development  interest_rates  FDI  emerging_markets  download  bubbles  FX  capital_flows  monetary_policy  fiscal_policy  financial_system  IMF  banking  NBFI  business_cycles  sovereign_debt  global_economy  macroeconomics  globalization 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Menzie Chin - The Dollar’s Recent Rise in Perspective | Econbrowser Jan 2015
"My own personal worries revolve around emerging markets. As noted (e.g., [3]), and appreciating dollar implies a deterioration in emerging market firm balance sheets when there are large amounts of dollar debt. Fixed or semi-fixed exchange rates will mitigate this effect if sustainable; otherwise, pernicious feedback loops are going to be established. I particularly worry about the dollar appreciation in conjunction with increasing yields in the US. Rising US yields would likely pull financial capital from emerging markets, with particularly negative effects on growth..." -- Saved to Evernote for charts especially for impact of 1980s strong dollar
global_economy  FX  US_economy  dollar  emerging_markets  sovereign_debt  interest_rates  economic_growth  capital_flows  financial_crisis  central_banks  Fed  QE  contagion  international_political_economy  competitiveness  trade  balance_of_payments  capital_markets  commodities  asset_prices  spreads  20thC  post-WWII  Evernote 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Jack A. Goldstone - The New Population Bomb: The Four Megatrends That Will Change the World | JSTOR: Foreign Affairs, Vol. 89, No. 1 (January/February 2010), pp. 31-43
UN predicts global population will level off by 2050 at approximately 9.15 billion from a bit under 7 billion today. Assuming we can avoid environmental catastrophe, the big demographic shifts will be more than half the population will be in cities and the growth will have been concentrated in younger cohorts of less developed regions, especially countries with low quality health, education and infrastructure, lack of economic opportunities to absorb the youth population (especially young, easily radicalized males) with the current wealthy economies both relatively older and smaller, requiring immigration to maintain growth and income levels. These trends will require a wholesale makeover in global governance. -- didn't download
article  jstor  21stC  global_economy  global_system  global_governance  population  demography  economic_growth  political_sociology  IR  OECD_economies  emerging_markets 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Bichler, Shimshon and Nitzan, Jonathan - The Asymptotes of Power - Real-World Economics Review. No. 60. June 2012. pp. 18-53 | bnarchives
Article workup of earlier conference paper -- This is the latest in a series of articles we have been writing on the current crisis. The purpose of our previous papers was to characterize the crisis. We claimed that it was a 'systemic crisis', and that capitalists were gripped by 'systemic fear'. In this article, we seek to explain why. The problem that capitalists face today, we argue, is not that their power has withered, but, on the contrary, that their power has increased. Indeed, not only has their power increased, it has increased by so much that it might be approaching its asymptote. And since capitalists look not backward to the past but forward to the future, they have good reason to fear that, from now on, the most likely trajectory of this power will be not up, but down. The paper begins by setting up our general framework and key concepts. It continues with a step-by-step deconstruction of key power processes in the United States, attempting to assess how close these processes are to their asymptotes. And it concludes with brief observations about what may lie ahead. -- Keywords: capitalization distribution power, systemic crisis -- Subjects: BN Money & Finance, BN Conflict & Violence, BN Distribution, BN Resistance, BN Power, BN Region - North America, BN Business Enterprise, BN Capital & Accumulation, BN Value & Price, BN Class, BN Crisis -- downloaded pdf to Note, also Excel data sheet
article  international_political_economy  capital_as_power  financial_system  international_finance  global_economy  global_system  ruling_class  transnational_elites  elite_culture  elites-self-destructive  globalization  power-asymmetric  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  finance_capital  financialization  distribution-income  distribution-wealth  profit  labor_share  risk-systemic  inequality  plutocracy  1-percent  conflict  violence  class_conflict  neoliberalism  corporate_citizenship  systems-complex_adaptive  systems_theory  grassroots  opposition  democracy  democracy_deficit  accumulation  capitalization  US_politics  US_economy  political_economy  political_culture  economic_culture  elites  rebellion  failed_states  property_rights  business-and-politics  business-norms  economic_growth  fear  data  capitalism-systemic_crisis  downloaded  EF-add 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Bianca De Paoli and Anna Lipinska - Capital Controls: A Normative Analysis | FRBNY Staff Reports Number 600 - February 2013
Countries' concerns about the value of their currency have been studied and documented extensively in the literature. Capital controls can be--and often are--used as a tool to manage exchange rate fluctuations. This paper investigates whether countries can benefit from using such a tool. We develop a welfare-based analysis of whether (or, in fact, how) countries should tax international borrowing. Our results suggest that restricting international capital flows through the use of these taxes can be beneficial for individual countries, although it would limit cross-border pooling of risk. The reason is because, while consumption risk-pooling is important, individual countries also care about domestic output fluctuations. Moreover, the results show that countries decide to restrict the international flow of capital exactly when this flow is crucial to ensure cross-border risk sharing. Our findings point to the possibility of costly "capital control wars" and thus to significant gains from international policy coordination. -- enfin! We're making progress in clearing away the accumulated layers of free market ideology. Not sure about the likelihood of "capital control wars" so have to read the thing to see if their global cross-border risk-pooling ("consumption risk-pooling? ) is a significant "common good" for anybody other than financial institutions or the beneficiaries of windfall surpluses like Saudi petrodollars that need recycling. Downloaded pdf to Note
paper  Fed  international_political_economy  international_finance  global_economy  global_imbalance  global_governance  capital_flows  FX  FX-misalignment  emerging_markets  hot_money  contagion  capital_controls  FDI  debt  macroeconomics  central_banks  FX-rate_management  monetary_policy  downloaded  EF-add 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Coppola Comment: Debt hysteria - September 30, 2014
The global debt glut described in the Geneva 16 report, and the global saving glut described by Bernanke, are the same thing. The authors note that growth has been slowing in developed countries since 1980. Indeed it has - and during that time capital ownership and indebtedness have been increasing in tandem, as we might expect since they are opposite sides of the same coin. The report cites numerous analyses that show high debt levels - public AND private - tending to impede growth as resources that could have been turned to productive investment are spent on debt service. Secular stagnation is as much a consequence of over-indebtedness as it is of excess capital. -- When the private sector is highly indebted, saving can take the form of paying off debt. If the government runs a surplus, therefore, it impedes deleveraging in the private sector, and may even force some sectors (typically the poor) to increase debt. Reducing the sovereign debt not only reduces saving in the private sector, it comes at the price of continued and possibly rising indebtedness. The report rightly notes that transferring debt from the private to the public sector, as the US has done, isn't deleveraging. But transferring it back again isn't deleveraging either. And as transferring it back again is likely only to be possible with extensive sovereign guarantees (the UK's Help to Buy, for example), whose debt is it really, anyway? Reports such as this, that look on debt as a problem and ignore the associated savings, fail to address the real issue. The fact is that households, corporations and governments like to have savings and are terrified of loss. Writing down the debt in which people invest their savings means that people must lose their savings. THIS is the real "shock, horror". This is what people fear when they worry about a catastrophic debt default. This is what the world went to great lengths to prevent in 2008. The problem is not the debt, it is the savings.
global_imbalance  global_economy  international_political_economy  international_finance  savings  investment  institutional_investors  debt  debt-restructuring  debtors  credit  creditors  equity  equity-corporate  sovereign_debt  default  risk  risk-systemic  inflation  austerity  economic_growth  stagnation  OECD_economies  emerging_markets  banking  capital_markets  capital_adequacy  government_finance  leverage  deleverage  property_rights  pensions  interest_rates  Evernote 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Issue TOC - THE RESILIENCY OF THE NATION-STATE IN SCHOLARSHIP AND IN FACT | JSTOR: Review (Fernand Braudel Center), Vol. 34, No. 3, 2011
Introduction: "Globalization" and the Nation-State in the Modern World-System (pp. 253-258) - Denis O'Hearn and Thomas M. Wilson. *--* Nationalism in a Post-Hegemonic Era (pp. 259-283) - Richard Lachmann. *--* The State of States in International Organizations: From the WHO to the Global Fund (pp. 285-310) - Nitsan Chorev, Tatiana Andia Rey and David Ciplet. *--* On the Study of Social Optics: Foucault, Counter-Surveillance, and the Political Underground in Northern Peru (pp. 311-331) - David Nugent -- lots of interesting bibliography
article  journal  jstor  20thC  21stC  economic_history  political_history  political_economy  international_political_economy  cultural_history  globalization  global_governance  global_economy  global_system  global_history  social_theory  political_sociology  political_culture  political_nation  nation-state  national_ID  elites  elite_culture  MNCs  international_organizations  international_system  international_finance  IR_theory  IR-domestic_politics  hegemony  Foucault  IFIs  world_systems  bibliography  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Tax Analysts -- Ajay Gupta - Renouncing the Dogma of Surrey’s Infallibility - September 2014
The arm’s-length standard assumes that related entities are unrelated and seeks to find the price at which they would have bought and sold in the marketplace. A MNE, however, exists as an integrated firm precisely to avoid marketplace transactions. Disregarding that irreconcilable conflict may not have mattered in avoiding double taxation a half-century ago. But today the fiction of unrelated parties and market transactions not just obfuscates reality but can also compound the double nontaxation problem. This is especially true of intangibles that by definition have no physical situs and can therefore be deemed to have been created almost anywhere. Increasingly, an MNE’s profits are derived from intangibles and reinvested in research that develops and refines these virtual assets. As long as the OECD retains the blinkers of the arm’s-length standard, it is unlikely to see most cross-border research endeavors for what they truly are—cynical attempts at gaming the international tax regime. Treasury’s export of Surrey’s arm’s-length standard was perhaps the most successful case of ideological conversion in the arena of international tax policy. But the United States itself has been inching away from that construct. In 1986 Congress amended section 482 to require a "commensurate with income” standard for transfers of intangibles. Treasury proposed the profit-split method in 1988 and more recently finalized the cost-sharing regulations. Each of those attempts at reform rejects the simple-minded notion of market transactions between unrelated parties. The OECD, however, clings to the gospel of the arm’s-length standard with a zeal befitting a convert. It seems that Treasury will have to renounce the dogma of Surrey’s infallibility before a true reformation in transfer pricing can finally get underway.
global_governance  global_economy  MNCs  taxes  corporate_tax  cross-border  tax_havens  tax_collection  OECD  international_political_economy  international_organizations 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Khan, B. - An Economic History of Copyright in Europe and the United States | EH.Net Encyclopedia, edited by Robert Whaples. March 16, 2008
The US created a utilitarian market-based model of intellectual property grants which created incentives for invention, with the primary objective of increasing social welfare and protecting the public domain. The checks and balances of interest group lobbies, the legislature and the judiciary worked effectively as long as each institution was relatively well-matched in terms of size and influence. However, a number of scholars are concerned that the political influence of corporate interests, the vast number of uncoordinated users over whom the social costs are spread, and international harmonization of laws have upset these counterchecks, leading to over-enforcement at both the private and public levels. International harmonization with European doctrines introduced significant distortions in the fundamental principles of US copyright and its democratic provisions. One of the most significant of these changes was also one of the least debated: compliance with the precepts of the Berne Convention accorded automatic copyright protection to all creations on their fixation in tangible form. This rule reversed the relationship between copyright and the public domain that the US Constitution stipulated. According to original US copyright doctrines, the public domain was the default, and copyright a limited exemption to the public domain; after the alignment with Berne, copyright became the default, and the rights of the public and of the public domain now merely comprise a limited exception to the primacy of copyright. The pervasive uncertainty that characterizes the intellectual property arena today leads risk-averse individuals and educational institutions to err on the side of abandoning their right to free access rather than invite challenges and costly litigation. Many commentators are also concerned about other dimensions of the globalization of intellectual property rights, such as the movement to emulate European grants of property rights in databases, which has the potential to inhibit diffusion and learning.
article  economic_history  publishing  property  property_rights  legal_history  legal_system  IP  regulation-harmonization  natural_rights  natural_law  copyright  patents  US_constitution  15thC  16thC  17thC  18thC  19thC  20thC  international_law  France  French_Revolution  censorship  British_history  authors  artists  playwrights  democracy  knowledge_economy  Internet  globalization  global_economy  digital_humanities  transparency  open_access  scientific_culture  science-public  education  R&D  education-higher  common_law  civil_code  civil_society  civic_humanism  US_legal_system 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
theAIRnet.org - Home
The Academic-Industry Research Network – theAIRnet – is a private, 501(c)(3) not-for-profit research organization devoted to the proposition that a sound understanding of the dynamics of industrial development requires collaboration between academic scholars and industry experts. We engage in up-to-date, in-depth, and incisive research and commentary on issues related to industrial innovation and economic development. Our goal is to understand the ways in which, through innovation, businesses and governments can contribute to equitable and stable economic growth – or what we call “sustainable prosperity”.
website  economic_growth  industry  technology  Innovation  green_economy  development  business  business-and-politics  capitalism  global_economy  public-private_partnerships  public_policy  public_health  public_goods  urban_development  health_care  IP  Labor_markets  wages  unemployment  education-training  sustainability  financial_system  corporate_citizenship  corporate_governance  corporate_finance  CSR  firms-theory  management  plutocracy  MNCs  international_political_economy  human_capital  OECD_economies  emerging_markets  supply_chains  R&D  common_good  1-percent  inequality  working_class  work-life_balance  workforce  regulation  regulation-harmonization  incentives  stagnation 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Smart Track Can't Be Fast Track in Disguise - Citizens Trade Campaign
FastTrackinDisguiseNearly 600 organizations, together representing millions of Americans, have sent a joint letter to Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) expressing their steadfast opposition to Fast Track and outlining the minimum requirements for a new, democratic and accountable trade policy-making process. Earlier this year, Senator Wyden announced he is working on new “Smart Track” legislation to replace the expired Fast Track process that allows harmful trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to be rushed through Congress circumventing ordinary review, amendment and debate procedures. The sign-on letter promoted by CTC members such as the Sierra Club, Communications Workers of America, the Teamsters and Public Citizen, among others both inside and outside CTC, urges that Fast Track be eliminated and replaced with a new model of trade authority that includes transparency in trade negotiations, a Congressional role in selecting trade partners, a clear set of negotiating mandates and Congressional certification that mandates have been met before negotiations can conclude. -- downloaded pdf to Note
US_politics  US_economy  US_foreign_policy  Obama_administration  Congress  trade-policy  trade-agreements  unions  climate  environment  transparency  civil_society  grassroots  MNCs  globalization  global_economy  global_governance  international_political_economy  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
The 21st Century Investor: Ceres Blueprint for Sustainable Investing — Ceres
Unprecedented risks to the global economy make this a challenging time for the 21st century investor—institutional asset owners and their investment managers—most of which have multi-generational obligations to beneficiaries. Climate change, resource scarcity, population growth, energy demand, ensuring the human rights of workers across global supply chains, and access to fresh water are some of the major issues challenging our ability to build a sustainable economy, one that meets the needs of people today without compromising the needs of future generations. -- This Blueprint is written for the 21st Century investor— institutional asset owners and their investment managers—who need to understand and manage the growing risks posed by climate change, resource scarcity, population growth, human and labor rights, energy demand and access to water—risks that will challenge businesses and affect investment returns in the years and decades to come. -- section of Ceres website devoted to investor related initiatives - proxy voting guides, etc - and corporate and public finance isuues, such as sustainability risk disclosure, listing srandards, Climate Bonds Principles -- downloaded pdf of executive summary of report
report  climate  energy  water  ocean  demography  supply_chains  global_economy  global_governance  sustainability  financial_system  capital_markets  institutional_investors  corporate_governance  corporate_finance  public_finance  investors  disclosure  asset_management  political_economy  international_political_economy  Labor_markets  human_rights  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
WEF's Global Risk Report | Silvia Merler at Bruegel.org - September 2014
Last week, the World Economic Forum (WEF) published its Global Risk Report (GRR) for 2014/15. The report is an exercise conducted by the WEF since 2006, but this year’s issue is particularly interesting because it adopts an historical perspective, offering insights on how the world has changed in respondents’ eyes and concerns. The GRR assesses risks that are global in nature and have the potential to cause significant negative impact across entire countries and industries if they take place over a time frame of up to 10 years. 31 such risks are identified in the report and grouped under five categories – economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological. *-* Economic Risks include fiscal and liquidity crises, failure of a major financial mechanism or institution, oil-price shocks, chronic unemployment and failure of physical infrastructure on which economic activity depends. *-* Environmental Risks encompass both natural disasters and man-made risks such as collapsing ecosystems, freshwater shortages, nuclear accidents and failure to mitigate or adapt to climate change. *-* Geopolitical Risks cover politics, diplomacy, conflict, crime and global governance. These risks range from terrorism, disputes over resources and war to governance being undermined by corruption, organized crime and illicit trade. *-* Societal Risks are intended to capture risks related to social stability – such as severe income disparities, food crises and dysfunctional cities – and public health, such as pandemics, antibiotic-resistant bacteria and the rising burden of chronic disease. *-* Technological Risks covers major risks related to the centrality of information and communication technologies to individuals, businesses and governments (such as cyber attacks, infrastructure disruptions and data loss). -- excellent network chart showing how risks are interrelated within and across categories -- downloaded pdf to Note
report  global_economy  global_governance  global_system  international_political_economy  international_finance  financial_crisis  climate  energy  water  inequality  unemployment  geopolitics  infrastructure  public_health  public_goods  urban_development  urbanization  downloaded 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Coen Teulings, Richard Baldwin - Secular stagnation: Facts, causes, and cures – a new Vox eBook | vox 10 September 2014
The CEPR Press eBook on secular stagnation has been viewed over 80,000 times since it was published on 15 August 2014. -- Six years after the Crisis and the recovery is still anaemic despite years of zero interest rates. Is ‘secular stagnation’ to blame? Introduction - Coen Teulings and Richard Baldwin **--** I. Opening the debate -- 1. Reflections on the ‘New Secular Stagnation Hypothesis’, Laurence H Summers. **--** II. Three issues: Potential growth, effective demand, and sclerosis -- 2. Secular stagnation: A review of the issues, Barry Eichengreen -- 3. The turtle’s progress: Secular stagnation meets the headwinds, Robert J Gordon -- 4 Four observations on secular stagnation, Paul Krugman. -- 5. Secular joblessness, Edward L Glaeser. **--** III. Further on potential growth. -- 6. Secular stagnation? Not in your life - Joel Mokyr. -- 7 Secular stagnation: US hypochondria, European disease?, Nicholas Crafts. **--** IV. Further on effective demand. -- 8. A prolonged period of low real interest rates?, Olivier Blanchard, Davide Furceri and Andrea Pescatori. -- 9. On the role of safe asset shortages in secular stagnation, Ricardo J Caballero and Emmanuel Farhi. -- 10. A model of secular stagnation, Gauti B. Eggertsson and Neil Mehrotra. -- 11. Balance sheet recession is the reason for secular stagnation, Richard C Koo. -- 12. Monetary policy cannot solve secular stagnation alone
Guntram B Wolff. **--** V. Further on sclerosis -- 13. Secular stagnation: A view from the Eurozone, Juan F. Jimeno, Frank Smets and Jonathan Yiangou -- downloaded pdf to Note
books  etexts  kindle-available  economic_history  18thC  19thC  20thC  21stC  economic_theory  economic_growth  Great_Recession  stagnation  international_political_economy  capitalism  financialization  productivity  investment  technology  Labor_markets  unemployment  demand-side  supply-side  infrastructure  welfare_state  sovereign_debt  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  central_banks  leverage  risk  uncertainty  macroeconomics  macroprudential_policies  international_monetary_system  global_economy  global_imbalance  interest_rates  profit  wages  Eurozone  US_economy  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Ruud de Mooij, Michael Keen, Victoria Perry - Fixing international corporate taxation | vox 14 September 2014
IMF experience in developing countries points to some distinctive policy issues. Over the past 2 decades, developing countries have signed a huge number of tax treaties. But the evidence on whether they actually affect FDI (plagued by endogeneity issues) is mixed at best. What we do see in our country work are sometimes significant revenue losses, reinforced by the ability of MNCs to route and structure their intra-group payments to exploit treaty arrangements. This has for some while led IMF staff to (cautiously) urge caution in signing treaties – a view... included in the G20-OECD Action Plan of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting project. [A less prominent but important issue] is the tax treatment of capital gains on the transfer of interest in assets, such as telecoms or mineral licenses – it may be possible to avoid tax in the country where these assets are inherently located by holding them through a chain of offshore companies, and then selling the claim to a low-tax jurisdiction. This has emerged as a macro-relevant concern in several low-income countries (such as Mauritania and Uganda). *-* The underlying policy issue is one of spillovers in international taxation – the effects that, through the ways in which business reacts, one country’s tax decisions have an impact on others. A low or zero tax rate on income arising in a country is only the most obvious route. Network externalities also arise from the signing of treaties (if A, which has a treaty with B, signs another with C, in effect creating a treaty between B and C without consent from B); and countries can compete over tax bases by special regimes for types of income or activities. *-* one has to start by looking at the basic architecture of international taxation. -- closer to where the world may be heading, is moving toward a combination of arm’s-length pricing on transactions where this is relatively easy (such as for most tangibles) and a formulaic profit split where it is not (such as for most intangibles). And there are other suggestions for fundamentally different international tax policies, such as that for destination-based corporate tax, which mimics a VAT but with a deduction for the cost of labour.
international_political_economy  global_economy  global_governance  taxes  tax_havens  MNCs  transfer_pricing  trade-agreements  treaties  international_law  international_economics  law-and-economics  law-and-finance  corporate_citizenship  emerging_markets  G20  OECD_economies  OECD  IMF  FDI  investment-bilateral_treaties  externalities  bibliography  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Fola Adeleke - Investor-State Arbitration and the Public Interest Regulation Theory :: SSRN June 16, 2014
University of the Witwatersrand - School of Law -- Fourth Biennial Global Conference of the Society of International Economic Law (SIEL) Working Paper No. 2014/12. *--* When South Africa decided late last year to terminate a number of bilateral investment agreements with European Union countries, it did so at a time when global regulatory governance has come under scrutiny for their disposition to the domestic economic policies of states and the idea of state sovereignty in the regulation of its own economic affairs is fast declining. The prevailing global regulatory governance regime institutionalizes neo-liberalism which has given birth to various economic institutions and rules including bilateral investment treaties (BITs). The policy interest behind BITs is to some extent the suspension of domestic regulation in the governance of foreign investment. With this suspension in place, the regulatory sphere is filled by a supra-national regime that is rigid and restrains state conduct. In this paper, I intend to apply the emerging legal framework of global administrative law (GAL) to investor state arbitration in order to dispel the resistance towards this dispute settlement mechanism found in BITs for its perceived inability to adequately handle disputes that deal with public interest issues that fall outside standard investment protection but are relevant to the resolution of the investment dispute. I propose the application of domestic law concepts in an international sphere and make the argument that a statutory interpretation based on administrative law principles anchors the BIT regime to the domestic policy space of states and builds up the much needed legitimacy for investor state arbitration. The focus of GAL on the procedural elements of administrative law enables the implementation of substantive norms of liberalized trade which also promotes the rule of law, encourage a broader range of social and economic actors to scrutinize decision making and promote a democratic element in global regulatory governance. This democratic element includes public participation, greater transparency as well as an interpretive approach founded on GAL principles. - Pages in PDF File: 52 -- Keywords: Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs), Global Administrative Law (GAL), Deference, Public Interest, Investment Arbitration - downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  international_law  international_economics  law-and-economics  South_Africa  EU  global_governance  global_economy  international_political_economy  international_finance  administrative_law  dispute_resolution  arbitration  neoliberalism  treaties  FDI  common_good  investment-bilateral_treaties  democracy  nation-state  national_interest  political_participation  business-and-politics  emerging_markets  investor-State_disputes  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Edward D. Kleinbard - 'Competitiveness' Has Nothing to Do With It (Tax Notes, Forthcoming) :: SSRN August 27, 2014
USC Gould School of Law -- USC CLASS Research Papers Series No. CLASS 14-26 - USC Legal Studies Research Papers Series No. 14-34 -- The recent wave of corporate tax inversions has triggered interest in what motivates these tax-driven transactions now. Corporate executives have argued that inversions are explained by an "anti-competitive" U.S. tax environment, as evidenced by the federal corporate tax statutory rate, which is high by international standards, and by its "worldwide" tax base. This paper explains why this competitiveness narrative is largely fact-free, in part by using one recent articulation of that narrative (by Emerson Electric Co.’s former vice-chairman) as a case study. The recent surge in interest in inversion transactions is explained primarily by U.S. based multinational firms’ increasingly desperate efforts to find a use for their stockpiles of offshore cash (now totaling around $1 trillion), and by a desire to "strip" income from the U.S. domestic tax base through intragroup interest payments to a new parent company located in a lower-taxed foreign jurisdiction. These motives play out against a backdrop of corporate existential despair over the political prospects for tax reform, or for a second "repatriation tax holiday" of the sort offered by Congress in 2004. '- Number of Pages in PDF File: 32 -- didn't download
paper  SSRN  US_economy  taxes  tax_havens  tax_collection  Congress  US_politics  globalization  global_economy  business-and-politics  corporate_finance  corporate_governance  corporate_citizenship 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Steve Denning - The Copernican Revolution In Management - Forbes - July 2013
Today’s hierarchical bureaucracies are so out-of-step with the current marketplace in which power has shifted from seller to buyer that we cannot wait for the results of definitive long-term scientific studies. As Don Tapscott said in this column last week, “The fundamental problem facing all our institutions today, including government, is not related to conjunctural economic changes. It’s not a business cycle that we are going through. It’s not a cyclical change. It’s a secular change. We are at a punctuation point in human history where the industrial age and institutions have finally come to their logical conclusion. They have essentially run out of gas.” The shareholder value theory is thus only a small part of the problem. It is part of a web of obsolete management ideas that no longer fit the 21st Century marketplace. As noted below, other once-sacred truths in management are part of the same failing paradigm. Absorbing even a couple of these fundamental shifts will take time. Absorbing them all, and acquiring the skills and attitudes necessary to implement them, will not be easy or quick. -- large number of links to recent articles, papers etc
globalization  global_economy  business  management  corporate_governance  technology  networks-business  hierarchy  shareholder_value  capital_markets  investors  financialization  Labor_markets  Innovation  capitalism  executive_compensation  1-percent  inequality  links 
august 2014 by dunnettreader
The Reshoring Initiative: Total Cost of Ownership Estimator Tool
The Total Cost of Ownership Estimator is a complimentary tool that enables aggregation of all cost and risk factors into one cost for simpler, more objective decision making. Most companies make sourcing decisions based on price alone, resulting in a 20 to 30 percent miscalculation of actual offshoring costs. With the Total Cost of Ownership Estimator, users account for all relevant factors when determining their total cost of ownership including overhead, balance sheet, corporate strategy and other external and internal business costs. Once your unique data is input into the calculator, you will receive your total cost of ownership analysis complete with: ** Calculations of each source’s cost ** An accumulation of all costs into cost categories. ** A grand total cost. ** Line charts showing each source’s current price, total cost of ownership and 5-year forecast. ** Line charts showing your cumulative cost by category
globalization  global_economy  business  off-shoring  prices  labor  management  profit 
august 2014 by dunnettreader
Looming Ahead - 5 Nobel Prize winners discuss their "biggest problem" of the future global economy -- Finance & Development, September 2014, Vol. 51, No. 3
Five Nobel Prize winners discuss what they each see as the biggest problem facing the global economy of the future -- George Akerlof -climate change; Krugman - demand side; Solow - secular stagnation in developed economies (if that happens, will and means to solve even catastrophic problems like climate won't be forthcoming) Michael Spence (inclusiveness of global economic development to allow adjustments that keep benefiting rich countries but extend beneficiaries of growth - stress on getting basics right like managing limited natural resources): Stiglitz - inequality -- downloaded pdf to Note
economic_theory  global_economy  political_economy  climate  stagnation  OECD_economies  emerging_markets  capitalism  demand  Great_Recession  Labor_markets  inequality  global_governance  international_political_economy  downloaded  EF-add 
august 2014 by dunnettreader
Joshua Clover, review essay - Autumn of the Empire [post the Great Recession] | The Los Angeles Review of Books July 2011
Books discussed - Richard Duncan, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures *--* Robert Brenner, The Economics of Global Turbulence *--* Giovanni Arrighi, The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power and the Origins of Our Times *--* Giovanni Arrighi, Adam Smith in Beijing *--*--*--* All three authors are heterodox from view of what passes for informed discourse about economic theory or political economy - by the conclusion of the essay, Giovanni Arrighi's longue-durée of transitions of a succession of capitalist empires becomes the vantage point for discussions of how we got to the Great Recession as well as where we have to start thinking about another way of understanding the geopolitical dynamics of global capitalism (or the global capitalist dynamics of geopolitics) Other TAGGED AUTHORS - Jill Ciment, Paul Krugman, Fernand Braudel, Joseph Schumpeter, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, T.S. Eliot *--* Other TAGGED BOOKS - Reinhardt and Rogoff, This Time It's Different, *--* Michael Lewis, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine
books  reviews  global_economy  globalization  international_political_economy  financialization  financial_crisis  economic_history  geopolitics  empires  empire-and_business  world_history  world_systems  cycles  15thC  16thC  17thC  18thC  19thC  20thC  Genoa  city_states  Dutch_Revolt  Dutch  British_Empire  US-China  US-empire  imperialism  imperial_overreach  trade  trading_companies  production  productivity  capitalism  competition  profit  investment  international_monetary_system  translatio_imperii  Annales  bubbles  labor  off-shoring  investors  American_exceptionalism  EF-add 
august 2014 by dunnettreader
Unctad report - FDI into developing economies forecast to stall | FT. com June 2014
China set to become net exporter of FDI. Multinationals "reshoring" some employment and bringing back some of the $3T+ stashed overseas. Post Euro crisis FDI into Europe to pick up
global_economy  FDI  emerging_markets  OECD_economies  Eurozone  China  investment  tax_havens  off-shoring 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Prakash Loungani and Saurabh Mishra - Not Your Father's Service Sector -- Finance & Development, June 2014
A long-standing truism in California’s Silicon Valley is that “70 percent of hardware is software”—early recognition of the link between sales of computers and software services. It is a phenomenon that now extends beyond the computer industry. Services have become the glue that binds many manufacturing supply chains. ...Recognizing this interdependence, companies are shifting from “selling products to selling an integrated combination of products and services that deliver value,” a development that the academic literature refers to as the “servitization of manufacturing” .... Companies are more open today to the incorporation of products and services from other vendors if it helps them establish and maintain a relationship with their customers. To reap the benefits of these trends, even developing economies where manufacturing still looms large must develop state-of-the-art services. Such services are needed for manufacturing firms to connect to global value chains and develop competitiveness in more skill-intensive activities along the value chain. Some countries may be able to use their comparative advantage in labor costs to become exporters of some intermediate or final service products. In others, services may pose lower barriers to entry than capital-intensive industries or offer an easier route to employment for women than other available options. Countries such as Malaysia could take advantage of the globalization of services to escape a potential middle-income trap.
global_economy  supply_chains  services  trade  emerging_markets  globalization  manufacturing  exports  women-work 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Abigail Swingen, review - Sheryllynne Haggerty. "Merely for Money"? Business Culture in the British Atlantic, 1750-1815 | H-Net Reviews
Haggerty demonstrates that successful merchants in the 18thC British Atlantic world operated in a culture that had socially constructed expectations for their behavior. Those who did not conform to that culture could find themselves left out of it altogether. This is most effectively demonstrated in her chapter on obligation. ...“obligation” did not simply reflect the necessity to pay off a debt. For some larger merchant houses, it meant not calling in debts too quickly especially at times of crisis -- 18thC merchants, although largely self-regulating, expected and desired a certain level of regulation and protection from the British state. This was especially true in terms of overseas and colonial trades. ...merchants felt that the state was “obligated” to protect them, considering the various ways they contributed to the imperial economy. --ultimately one questions how these crises, and the sophisticated ways the merchants responded to them, compared to earlier similar moments of upheaval. Overseas (especially colonial) merchants had formed lobbying groups, both informal and formal, since at least the late17thC, as the work of Alison Olson and Will Pettigrew demonstrates. Because there is little consideration of change over time, however, one does not get a clear sense of the overall significance of the period in question. -- one is left wondering about the broader implications of the ways in which merchants confronted and negotiated with the “formal” empire. The merchants were caught up in a transformative period in the transition to a global capitalist economy. -- high marks for archival work and applying Greif (new institutional_economics) and folks like Hobbit re business concepts
books  reviews  economic_history  18thC  19thC  British_history  British_politics  Atlantic  West_Indies  American_colonies  American_Revolution  slavery  merchants  mercantilism  protectionism  credit  creditors  trade-policy  trade_finance  British_Empire  British_foreign_policy  interest_groups  economic_culture  institutional_economics  obligation  business-and-politics  capitalism  globalization  global_economy  EF-add 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Amparo Castelló-Climent, Rafael Doménech - Human capital and income inequality | vox , 23 April 2014
Most developing countries have made a great effort to eradicate illiteracy. As a result, the inequality in the distribution of education has been reduced by more than half from 1950 to 2010. However, inequality in the distribution of income has hardly changed. This column presents evidence from a new dataset on human capital inequality. The authors find that increasing returns to education, globalisation, and skill-biased technological change can explain why the fall in human capital inequality has not been sufficient to reduce income inequality.
paper  economic_history  economic_theory  human_capital  literacy  inequality  education  education-higher  globalization  technology  wages  labor  political_economy  global_economy  EF-add 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Michael Pettis - Economic consequences of income inequality - March 2014
Back to basics and the undercinsumption model that shows why it's necessary to save capitalism from itself -- I will again quote Mariner Eccles, from his 1933 testimony to Congress, in which he was himself quoting with approval an unidentified economist, probably William Trufant Foster. In his testimony he said:

It is utterly impossible, as this country has demonstrated again and again, for the rich to save as much as they have been trying to save, and save anything that is worth saving. They can save idle factories and useless railroad coaches; they can save empty office buildings and closed banks; they can save paper evidences of foreign loans; but as a class they cannot save anything that is worth saving, above and beyond the amount that is made profitable by the increase of consumer buying.

It is for the interests of the well-to-do – to protect them from the results of their own folly – that we should take from them a sufficient amount of their surplus to enable consumers to consume and business to operate at a profit. This is not “soaking the rich”; it is saving the rich. Incidentally, it is the only way to assure them the serenity and security which they do not have at the present moment.
Great_Recession  Great_Depression  economic_history  economic_theory  savings  investment  consumer_demand  unemployment  global_economy  international_political_economy  trade-policy  trade-theory  Eurozone  China  Germany  inequality  EF-add 
march 2014 by dunnettreader
Richard Marshall -Perspectives book series review - why fight poverty etc » 3:AM Magazine Feb 2014
Series editor Diane Coyle summarises the series nicely when she writes: ‘Perspectives are essays on big ideas by leading writers, each given free rein and a modest word limit to reframe an issue of great contemporary interest.’ Reading them invites peppy fustigation or pash. *--* (1) Julia Unwin’s ‘Why Fight Poverty’ argues that the UK must solve its poverty crisis and focuses on the emotional and sentimental thinking that ultimately provides obstacles for tackling the problem. This is hard-headed pugnacious stuff. *--* (2) Jim O’Neil’s ‘The BRIC Road to Growth’ warns that emerging markets are not an old story. The shift from the dominance of USA and Europe has happened. *--* (3) Anne Powers ‘Phoenix Cities’ is a study of regeneration ideas from Europe and the USA. Bridget Rosewell writes about ‘Reinventing London.’ *--* (4) Rediscovering Growth: After the Crisis’ by Andrew Sentance begins by asking what has happened to economic growth since the North Atlantic crisis in the stricken economies affected by the crisis. It’s an interesting question, and one that has in the background worries that without growth governments won’t be able to contain public borrowing, reduce their debts nor establish a direction for economic recovery.
books  reviews  public_policy  global_economy  global_governance  Great_Recession  emerging_markets  economic_growth  sovereign_debt  austerity  urban_development  urban_politics  London  education  poverty  Poor_Laws  EF-add 
february 2014 by dunnettreader
Simon Wren-Lewis mainly macro: Is zero the new normal? - Nov 2013
In addition to links re various theories for why Natural Rate of Return (NRR) might have fallen, advocates fiscal policy as helpful response regardless of whether secular stagnation or lower NRR is new base trend is actually occurring. To head off government debt fetishists he argues -- Let me finish with a point about government debt. A major reason why high government debt is a problem in the medium to long term is that - unless Ricardian Equivalence holds - it crowds out private capital. It does that by raising the NRR. Too much saving goes into buying government debt, so there is not enough to invest in private capital. Yet if the NRR is actually negative, and likely to stay very low for some time, and this is a problem because of the ZLB, then the fact that government debt is currently raising the NRR is useful. To put it another way, this means we have plenty of time to deal with the problem of government debt. Which is good, because all the analysis suggests that it is optimal to reduce debt slowly. In the short term, high public debt is helping, not hurting. (Similar arguments can be made in relation to unfunded social security schemes.)
21stC  stagnation  Great_Recession  fiscal_policy  austerity  monetary_policy  interest_rates  investment  sovereign_debt  crowding_out  economic_growth  savings  pensions  Keynesianism  global_imbalance  global_economy  links  EF-add 
december 2013 by dunnettreader
David Fields - More on The Sociology of Development: Towards A Re-articulation of Dependency Theory I The Hampton Institute Nov 2013
Originally posted on Naked Keynesianism -- excellent bibliography from Rostow, Parsons et al modernization theory onwards thru Paul Baran and Paul Sweezy, in Monopoly Capital (1960), [building on the path-breaking work of Michel Kalecki and Joseph Steindl], versions of dependency theory and D Harvey attacks on neoliberalism -- From this perspective [Fields & Vernengo], 'underdevelopment', or 'dependency', is the powerlessness a peripheral country to establish its own unit of account and thus is forced to variably peg its national currency to a foreign reference currency. What ensues is the inability to use monetary policy-central bank purchasing and selling of government bonds denominated in the domestic currency for purposes of controlling the money supply, and thus the cost of credit-, and fiscal policy, via deficit spending, for domestic economic needs. Since the central bank is forced to maintain a certain level reserves of the foreign reference currency such that the price of the domestic currency, in terms of the reference currency, does not change, this produces a negative money-multiplier that sets in motion an inherent deflationary bias, which, if not counteracted by capital inflows to spur aggregate demand, can lead to abrupt contraction of the monetary base, stinting any supposed progress towards economic sustainability (cf. Fields & Vernengo, 2012, 2013). -- concluding paragraph -- Balance of payments constraints can be quite unsupportable, spawning self-fulfilling financial collapses. Moreover, they altogether constitute an ideological mask that normalizes the advance of global cosmopolitan money-capitalist power to dictate the terms of domestic democratic politics (Ingham, 2008). As such, the extent to which a country is 'peripheralized', is the degree to which its creditworthiness is essentially evaluated in terms of the degree to which the state takes steps toward lowering the social wage for the benefit of multinational corporations from the centre (or core).
economic_history  intellectual_history  social_theory  development  social_sciences-post-WWII  modernization  industrialization  globalization  global_economy  global_imbalance  MNCs  Labor_markets  balance_of_payments  capital_markets  sovereign_debt  public_finance  monetary_policy  fiscal_policy  FX  emerging_markets  debt  default  Eurozone  bibliography  sociology  capitalism  capital_flows  finance_capital  EF-add 
november 2013 by dunnettreader
Heeding contagion—preventing another economic crisis | MIT Sloan Executive Education Blog
MIT Sloan professors and economic experts Kristin Forbes and Roberto Rigobon have proven in their collective work that learning how financial shock in one country permeates the economic stratosphere of another can ultimately teach global financial institutions to communicate and collaborate to prevent a future crisis.

In their jointly authored paper, “Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications,” Rigobon and Forbes trace how Russia’s devaluation of the ruble in 1998 kindled a contagion that brought down Brazil’s stock market. In contrast, they also showed how a collapse in U.S. stocks that triggers a similar tailspin in Canada isn’t necessarily an example of contagion through financial markets. But the U.S. and Canada do have direct ties through trade, finance, and geography, so “a crisis in the U.S. would be expected to have a strong, real impact on the Canadian economy,” Forbes and Rigobon said. Similarly, if Europe’s banking system began to collapse, this would most surely stall—and perhaps halt altogether—the U.S. economic recovery.
paper  global_economy  international_finance  financial_system  financial_crisis  emerging_markets  contagion 
november 2013 by dunnettreader
Being Greek and an Economist While Greece Burns: An intimate account – MGSA Keynote 2013 | Yanis Varoufakis
The Modern Greek Studies Association (MGSA) kindly invited me to deliver its 2013 Keynote, at the MGSA biannual Conference held at Indiana University. I grabbed the opportunity to speak auto-biographically and to place the Greek and global crises in a broader context of the discursive battles raging within economics.
Eurozone  austerity  economic_theory  global_economy  global_imbalance 
november 2013 by dunnettreader
Daniel Davies - If this is “secular stagnation”, I want my old job back — Crooked Timber
My point here is that none of this was unknown at the time. The US economic policy structure was aware that they were accommodating China and NAFTA, and aware that the tool of demand management was consumer spending. They might or might not have been aware that the consumer spending was financed by borrowing against housing wealth, but if they weren’t, they thundering well should have been. They got a structural increase in personal sector debt because they wanted one and set policy in order to create one. There’s no good calling it a “bubble” or a “puzzle” now that the shit’s hit the fan.

And so, welcome to the world you made guys. These are the consequences of globalization, entirely predictable and in fact predicted (by Dean Baker, among others). The final conclusion is probably the same as if it was a mysterious secular stagnation; fiscal policy. But the need for fiscal policy is such an obviously correct and obvious fact that more or less any economic argument is going to end up there unless it has major logical or accounting errors. But really – there is no need to tell ourselves ghost stories about animal spirits. There’s no puzzle here. We got this outcome because we wanted it.
20thC  21stC  economic_history  US_economy  global_economy  global_imbalance  trade  geopolitics  international_political_economy  international_finance  bubbles  financial_crisis  banking  shadow_banking  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  central_banks  Eurozone  housing  consumer_demand  investment  leverage  stagnation  economic_growth  EF-add 
november 2013 by dunnettreader
Marco Nappolini - Secular stagnation and post-scarcity | Pieria Nov 2013
The charts above illustrate that the overall picture is clearly one of falling long-term interest rates. As the authors say:

“[The] importance of monetary policy for long real rates appears to have diminished since the late 1990s… This is consistent with evidence that monetary policy has become more synchronised across countries, leaving less room for national real interest rates to diverge.”

This is what you would expect to see in a post-scarcity economy, though it is not to say that there are no projects that can deliver a real return on investment. Rather under post-scarcity conditions firms cannot have confidence in the existence of a market that can absorb all of their goods or services – so the risk adjustment of expected returns has to be larger. As such in order to get firms to part with their capital you would need to either set strongly negative nominal rates to force corporates into action or expand fiscal policy sufficiently to make it bear the investment risk that the private sector is refusing to take on. If Summers is right, however, it remains unclear whether even these measures would be sufficient to break developed economies out of secular stagnation.
global_economy  stagnation  consumer_demand  investment  profit  risk  interest_rates  monetary_policy  EF-add 
november 2013 by dunnettreader
Dani Rodrik on the large, dangerous external imbalances that underpin the fastest-growing economies' performance. - Project Syndicate Nov 2013
While advanced economies have performed far worse on average, there are notable exceptions, such as Germany and Sweden. “Do as we do,” these countries’ leaders often say, “and you will prosper, too.” Look more closely, however, and you will discover that these countries’ vaunted growth models cannot possibly be replicated everywhere, because they rely on large external surpluses to stimulate the tradable sector and the rest of the economy. Sweden’s current-account surplus has averaged above a whopping 7% of GDP over the last decade; Germany’s has averaged close to 6% during the same period The real heroes of the world economy – the role models that others should emulate – are countries that have done relatively well while running only small external imbalances. Countries like Austria, Canada, the Philippines, Lesotho, and Uruguay cannot match the world’s growth champions, because they do not over-borrow or sustain a mercantilist economic model. Theirs are unremarkable economies that do not garner many headlines. But without them, the global economy would be even less manageable than it already is.
global_system  global_economy  global_imbalance  international_economics  economic_growth  trade  EF-add 
november 2013 by dunnettreader
In a Good World, Would We Have to Deal with "Global Imbalances"? | Brad DeLong Nov 2013
Reprints his and Eichengreen introduction to reissue of Kindleberger, World in Depression - need for hegemon -- Responding to Dani Rodrick post re global Imbalances and beggar-thy-neighbor export-led policies
books  global_economy  global_system  global_imbalance  global_governance  financial_system  financial_crisis  Great_Depression  EF-add 
november 2013 by dunnettreader
Antonio Fatas on the Global Economy: Bubbles, interest rates and full employment. - Nov 2013
Another reaction to Larry Summers IMF presentation -- What happened to investment? Why didn't it go up as real interest rates fell and the pool of saving was increasing? I am not sure we have an answer to these questions but what the data suggests is that we are not just facing the negative consequences of a deep recession, we should also have some concerns about the strength of the recovery based on the weakness of investment in the previous expansion (once we take into account the low level of interest rates).
global_economy  20thC  21stC  investment  interest_rates  economic_growth  bubbles  stagnation  Great_Recession  EF-add 
november 2013 by dunnettreader
Martin Wolf - Why the future looks sluggish - FT.com Nov 2013
In part reacting to Larry Summers IMF presentation but also stuff Wolf has been working on for his book -- Really good weaving 2000s low rates and investment, global savings glut, housing bubbles, financial crisis and weak recovery from Great Recession - fits well with his speech on YouTube
global_economy  US_economy  bubbles  Great_Recession  economic_growth  investment  interest_rates  financial_crisis  fiscal_policy  stagnation  EF-add 
november 2013 by dunnettreader
G. William Domhoff - Interlocking Directorates in the Corporate Community (updated October 2013) | Who Rules America
Describes concepts and research methods for identifying interlocking governance and ownership relations in the corporate community -- used in the new study (separate bookmark) - Interlocks and Interactions Among the Power Elite: The Corporate Community, Think Tanks, Policy-Discussion Groups, and Government by G. William Domhoff, Clifford Staples, & Adam Schneider - August 2013
US_economy  global_economy  business  corporate_governance  power  elites  public_policy  networks  1-percent  NGOs  nonprofit  databases  methodology  social_capital  EF-add 
november 2013 by dunnettreader
Hilton Root - Dynamics among Nations: The Evolution of Legitimacy and Development in Modern States | The MIT Press
Liberal internationalism has been the West’s foreign policy agenda since the Cold War, and the West has long occupied the top rung of a hierarchical system. In this book, Hilton Root argues that international relations, like other complex ecosystems, exists in a constantly shifting landscape, in which hierarchical structures are giving way to systems of networked interdependence, changing every facet of global interaction. Accordingly, policymakers will need a new way to understand the process of change. Root suggests that the science of complex systems offers an analytical framework to explain the unforeseen development failures, governance trends, and alliance shifts in today’s global political economy.

Root examines both the networked systems that make up modern states and the larger, interdependent landscapes they share. Using systems analysis—in which institutional change and economic development are understood as self-organizing complexities—he offers an alternative view of institutional resilience and persistence. From this perspective, Root considers the divergence of East and West; the emergence of the European state, its contrast with the rise of China, and the network properties of their respective innovation systems; the trajectory of democracy in developing regions; and the systemic impact of China on the liberal world order. Complexity science, Root argues, will not explain historical change processes with algorithmic precision, but it may offer explanations that match the messy richness of those processes.
books  IR_theory  networks  complexity  Great_Divergence  development  legitimacy  nation-state  global_economy  global_system  global_governance  EF-add 
october 2013 by dunnettreader
Izabella Kaminska: Dark inventory, death of a city edition | FT Alphaville Oct 2013
There is actually a lot to the idea that we are living in an inevitable age of bubbles, and that such bubbles will not disappear until savers and capital owners acknowledge that they must be haircutted on the misvalued section of their wealth (the savings glut). Only this would stop it from disruptively and flightily flowing from one speculative asset class to the next because as soon as it anchors anywhere for too long its real (depreciated) value is exposed.

As we’ve argued before, the world is beset by a capital crisis not a debt crisis. There is too much capital and not enough productive use for it — at least not in western markets. At least nowhere near enough to guarantee the sort of returns “savers” have become accustomed to over the last few decades. The truth is that nowadays all savings come with risk. Yet most capital investors are simply not prepared to accept that.

This is where the problem begins.
Great_Recession  capital_markets  bubbles  investment  global_imbalance  global_economy  capital  capital_flows  debt  creditors  EF-add 
october 2013 by dunnettreader
Kari Polanyi Levitt - From the Great Transformation to the Great Financialization (2013) | | Fernwood Publishing
FROM THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION TO THE GREAT FINANCIALIZATION
On Karl Polanyi and Other Essays -- Four years into the unfolding of the most serious economic crisis since the 1930s, Karl Polanyi’s prediction of the fateful consequences of unleashing the destructive power of unregulated market capitalism on peoples, nations and the natural environment has assumed new urgency and relevance. The system of unregulated or free market capitalism has a propensity towards crisis, which is reflected in both the dynamics of the Great Depression of the 1930s and the advent of the new world order of neoliberal globalization of the 1980s, ushering in “the great financialization.”

Part I. Polanyi on Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy Transformations: Past, Present, and Future?
• Hayek from Vienna to Chicago: Architect of the Neoliberal Creed
• The Roots of Polanyi’s Socialist Vision
• Back to the Future: The World Economic Crisis of the 1930s
• Keynes and Polanyi: The 1920s and the 1990s
• Leading Concepts in the Work of Karl Polanyi and Their Contemporary Relevance
• Culture and Economy
• Social Dividend as a Citizen Right

Part II. The Global South from Conquest and Exploitation to Self-reliant Development Structural Continuity and Economic Dependence in the Capitalist World System
• Mercantilist Origins of Capitalism and Its Legacies: Decline of the West and Rise of the Rest
• The Great Financialization
• Development Economics in Perspective
• Reclaiming Policy Space for Equitable Economic Development
• Intellectual Independence and Transformative Change in the South
• Postscript on Globalization and Development
• Epilogue
books  global_economy  political_economy  international_political_economy  development  mercantilism  economic_culture  economic_sociology  Polanyi  capitalism  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  financialization  intellectual_history  20thC  Keynes 
october 2013 by dunnettreader
Janet Yellen on Bubbles and Minsky Meltdowns (2009) « Multiplier Effect
Speech at Levy Institute Minsky conference -- The current crisis has afforded plentiful opportunities for supervisors to reflect on the effectiveness of our current system of micro-prudential supervision. The “lessons learned” will undoubtedly enhance its conduct going forward.(16) But, regardless of how well micro-prudential supervision is executed, on its own it will never be adequate to safeguard the economy from the destructive boom and bust cycles that Minsky considered endemic in capitalistic systems. Analogous to Keynes’s paradox of thrift, the assumption that safe institutions automatically result in a safe system reflects a fallacy of composition. Thus, macro-prudential supervision—to protect the system as a whole—is needed to mitigate financial crises.

The roles of micro- and macro-prudential supervision are fundamentally different. In principle, many individual institutions could be managing risk reasonably well, while the system as a whole remained vulnerable due to interconnections among financial institutions that could lead to contagious cycles of loss and illiquidity. For example, it is prudent for institutions to sell risky assets and pay off debt when a decline in asset prices depletes capital. But the simultaneous behavior of many institutions to protect themselves in this way only intensifies the decline in prices. Moreover, when many institutions try to de-lever simultaneously, market liquidity can instantly evaporate. Systemic risk is endogenous to the working of the financial system.
21stC  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  bubbles  monetary_policy  financial_system  international_finance  global_imbalance  global_economy  financial_regulation  macroprudential_policies  capital  leverage  central_banks  EF-add 
september 2013 by dunnettreader
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