dunnettreader + fiscal_policy   132

Back To Gradualism
My reading of the consensus view is that the change in personnel at the Federal Reserve has coincided with a more hawkish outlook, although the tax cut…
Fed  interest_rates  inflation  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  tax_cuts  multipliers  Evernote  from instapaper
march 2018 by dunnettreader
Martin Longman - Making Political Analysis Easy - Sept 8 2017
What did I say? President Donald Trump on Friday delivered a message to congressional Republicans, essentially telling them their inaction led him to cut a deal…
US_politics  Congress  GOP  right-wing  Trump  fiscal_policy  from instapaper
september 2017 by dunnettreader
Martin Longman - The Debt Limit is Not the Issue - Sept 8 2017
I have to admit that I’m a little frustrated with the narrative that’s been built up around Donald Trump’s decision to side with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi…
US_politics  Congress  GOP  right-wing  Trump  fiscal_policy  Democrats  from instapaper
september 2017 by dunnettreader
Karaman
Theoretical work on taxation and state-building borrows heavily from early modern European experience. While a number of European states increased centralized tax revenues during this period, for others revenues stagnated or even declined and these variations have motivated alternative arguments for the determinants of fiscal and state capacity. This study reviews the arguments concerning the three determinants that have received most attention, namely warfare, economic structure, and political regime, and tests them by making use of a new and comprehensive tax revenue dataset. Our main finding is that these three determinants worked in interaction with each other. Specifically, when under pressure of war, it was representative regimes in more urbanized-commercial economies and authoritarian regimes in more rural-agrarian economies that tended to better aggregate domestic interests towards state-building. - Downloaded via iphone
tax_collection  taxes  state-building  nation-state  urban_politics  competition-interstate  political_culture  political_participation  agriculture-surplus  Absolutism  government_finance  fiscal-military_state  agriculture  Europe-Early_Modern  economic_history  article  bibliography  political_sociology  central_government  19thC  financial_instiutions  downloaded  18thC  15thC  urban_elites  military_history  political_economy  17thC  governing_class  constitutional_regime  local_government  fiscal_policy  16thC  government-forms  jstor  Crown_finance  financial_system 
july 2017 by dunnettreader
Flores-Maciss
What determines when states adopt war taxes to finance the cost of conflict? We address this question with a study of war taxes in the United States between 1789 and 2010. Using logit estimation of the determinants of war taxes, an analysis of roll-call votes on war tax legislation, and a historical case study of the Civil War, we provide evidence that partisan fiscal differences account whether the United States finances its conflicts through war taxes or opts for alternatives such as borrowing or expanding the money supply. Because the fiscal policies implemented to raise the revenues for war have considerable and often enduring redistributive impacts, war finance—in particular, war taxation—becomes a high-stakes political opportunity to advance the fiscal interests of core constituencies. Insofar as the alternatives to taxation shroud the actual costs of war, the findings have important implications for democratic accountability and the conduct of conflict. - Downloaded via iphone
US_history  downloaded  politics-and-money  US_military  deficit_finance  sovereign_debt  business_cycles  international_finance  fiscal_policy  Congress  US_foreign_policy  capital_markets  fiscal-military_state  political_history  article  political_economy  monetary_policy  taxes  US_politics  accountability  financial_system  redistribution  business-and-politics 
july 2017 by dunnettreader
Reading: Barry Eichengreen (2011): Economic History and Economic Policy via Brad DeLong
Barry Eichengreen (2011): Economic History and Economic Policy - EHA Presidential Address 2011
As you read, formulate your answers to the following questions:
1. What does Eichengreen think are the uses of history, as shown in the use of history in trying to understand the macroeconomic crisis that began in 2008?
2.What does Eichengreen think are the abuses of history, as shown in the use of history in trying to understand the macroeconomic crisis that began in 2008?
3.What rules and approaches does Eichengreen arrive it for future people trying to use history better?
Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
monetary_policy  historiography-postWWII  QE  fiscal_policy  unemployment  historiography-19thC  economic_history  economic_policy  Keynesianism  speech  FX-rate_management  downloaded  central_banks  Great_Depression  historiography  FX  austerity  financial_system  financial_crisis  financial_regulation  Minsky  historiography-20thC  FX-misalignment  Great_Recession  inflation 
january 2017 by dunnettreader
Emmanuel Saez - Taxing the Rich More: Preliminary Evidence from the 2013 Tax Increase (Nov 2016) | NBER Working Papers
Taxing the Rich More: Preliminary Evidence from the 2013 Tax Increase
Emmanuel Saez
NBER Working Paper No. 22798 - Issued in November 2016
This paper provides preliminary evidence on behavioral responses to taxation around the 2013 tax increase that raised top marginal tax rates on capital income by about 9.5 points and on labor income by about 6.5 points. Using published tabulated tax statistics from the Statistics of Income division of the IRS, we find that reported top 1% incomes were significantly higher in 2012 than in 2013, implying a large short-run elasticity of reported income with respect to the net-of-tax rate in excess of one. This large short-run elasticity is due to income retiming for tax avoidance purposes and is particularly high for realized capital gains and dividends, and highest at the very top of the income distribution. However, comparing 2011 and 2015 top incomes uncovers only a small medium-term response to the tax increase as top income shares resumed their upward trend after 2013. Overall, we estimate that at most 20% of the projected tax revenue increase from the 2013 tax reform is lost through behavioral responses. This implies that the 2013 tax increase was an efficient way to raise revenue.
paywall  capital_gains  fiscal_policy  tax_collection  behavioral_economics  tax_increases  US_government  Obama_administration  1-percent  top-marginal_tax_rates  NBER  tax_policy  paper  tax_avoidance 
december 2016 by dunnettreader
Larry Summers
The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations
Antonio Fatás, Lawrence H. Summers
NBER Working Paper No. 22374
Issued in June 2016
NBER Program(s):   EFG
The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies. At the same time, and in response to rising government debt levels, many of these countries have been engaging in fiscal consolidations that have had a negative impact on growth rates. We empirically explore the connections between these two facts by extending to longer horizons the methodology of Blanchard and Leigh (2013) regarding fiscal policy multipliers. Our results provide support for the presence of strong hysteresis effects of fiscal policy. The large size of the effects points in the direction of self-defeating fiscal consolidations as suggested by DeLong and Summers (2012). Attempts to reduce debt via fiscal consolidations have very likely resulted in a higher debt to GDP ratio through their long-term negative impact on output.
austerity  fiscal_policy  macroeconomics  NBER  paper  fiscal_multipliers  economic_theory  Great_Recession  hysterisis  paywall 
november 2016 by dunnettreader
Marco Di Maggio
The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer
Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani
NBER Working Paper No. 22625
Issued in September 2016
NBER Program(s):   EFG   LS   PE
We assess the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) serves as an automatic stabilizer to mitigate the economy's sensitivity to shocks. Using a local labor market design based on heterogeneity in local benefit generosity, we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in generosity attenuates the effect of adverse shocks on employment growth by 7% and on earnings growth by 6%. Consistent with a local demand channel, we find that consumption is less responsive to local labor demand shocks in counties with more generous benefits. Our analysis finds that the local fiscal multiplier of unemployment insurance expenditure is approximately 1.9.
paywall  unemployment_insurance  consumer_demand  unemployment  paper  NBER  demand-side  recessions  fiscal_multipliers  automatic_stabilizers  fiscal_policy 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Does Welfare Spending Crowd Out Charitable Activity? Evidence from Historical England Under the Poor Laws - Boberg-Fazlić - 2015 - The Economic Journal - Wiley Online Library
This study examines the relationship between government spending and charitable activity. We present a novel way of testing the ‘crowding out hypothesis’, making use of the fact that welfare provision under the Old Poor Laws was decided at the parish level, thus giving heterogeneity within a single country. Using data on poor relief spending combined with data on charitable incomes by county before and after 1800, we find a positive relationship: areas with more public provision also enjoyed higher levels of charitable income. These results are confirmed when instrumenting for Poor Law spending and when looking at first differences.
See the LSE blog post that summarizes this study.
bad_economics  British_politics  British_history  Poor_Laws  18thC  budget_deficit  Industrial_Revolution  agriculture  fiscal_policy  Wiley  welfare  Tories  philanthropy  UK_economy  Labor_markets  UK_politics  unemployment  paywall  article  Brexit  19thC  landowners 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Eggertsson & Summers - How secular stagnation in open economies spreads and how it can be cured | VOX.eu, 22 July 2016
Secular stagnation in the open economies: How it spreads, how it can be cured - Gauti Eggertsson, Lawrence Summers - The secular stagnation hypothesis suggests that low interest rates may be the new normal in years to come. This column argues that this prospect should not only lead to a major rethinking of policy from the perspective of individual economies, but also a major rethinking about monetary and fiscal policy in the international context, the role of international capital flows, and the role of policy coordination across borders. In times of secular stagnation, events such as Brexit or the recent turbulence in Turkey have much larger spillover effects than under normal circumstances. -- Much of previous work, including our own writings (Summers 2014, Eggertsson and Mehotra 2014), focuses on the secular stagnation hypothesis in the context of the US. Our two recent papers, however, written jointly with Neil Mehrotra (Eggertsson et al. 2016a, hereafter EMS) and with Neil Mehrotra and Sanjay Singh (Eggertsson et al. 2016b, hereafter EMSS), highlight the importance of real exchange rates and especially international capital movements in spreading secular stagnation, and the resulting policy spillovers across countries. -- downloaded to Tab S2
paper  downloaded  international_political_economy  international_finance  monetary_policy  central_banks  fiscal_policy  investment  savings  capital_flows  contagion  stagnation  interest_rates 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Brad Setser - Why Is The IMF Pushing Fiscal Consolidation in the Eurozone in 2017? - August 2016
blogs.cfr.org/setser/2016/08/01/why-is-the-imf-pushing-fiscal-consolidation-in-the-eurozone-in-2017
Eurozone  fiscal_policy  austerity  IMF  from instapaper
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Eggertsson, Mehrotra, Singh & Summers - A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation | NBER June 2016
Gauti B. Eggertsson, Neil R. Mehrotra, Sanjay R. Singh, Lawrence H. Summers - Conditions of secular stagnation - low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth - characterize much of the global economy. We consider an overlapping generations, open economy model of secular stagnation, and examine the effect of capital flows on the transmission of stagnation. In a world with a low natural rate of interest, greater capital integration transmits recessions across countries as opposed to lower interest rates. In a global secular stagnation, expansionary fiscal policy carries positive spillovers implying gains from coordination, and fiscal policy is self-financing. Expansionary monetary policy, by contrast, is beggar-thy-neighbor with output gains in one country coming at the expense of the other. Similarly, we find that competitiveness policies including structural labor market reforms or neomercantilist trade policies are also beggar-thy-neighbor in a global secular stagnation.
economic_theory  interest_rates  stagnation  economic_growth  OECD_economies  paywall  capital_flows  paper  international_finance  global_economy  contagion  monetary_policy  FX-rate_management  international_political_economy  competition-interstate  fiscal_policy  fiscal_multipliers  trade-policy  Labor_markets  austerity  competiveness-labor  wages  labor_standards 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Ben Leo and Todd Moss - Bringing US Development Finance into the 21st Century | Center For Global Development 7/20/15
Part of the White House and the World 2016 Briefing Book -- Well-established European development finance institutions (DFIs) are providing integrated services for businesses...-- debt and equity financing, risk mitigation, and technical assistance. .. emerging-market actors — including China, India, Brazil, and Malaysia — have dramatically increased financing activities in developing regions such as Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. As the needs of developing countries have changed, so has the political and economic environment in the US. First, traditional development dynamics are shifting rapidly from a donor-recipient aid relationship to win-win partnerships involving public and private actors. Second, most US aid agencies typically are not positioned to address many pressing development priorities, such as expanding economic opportunities in frontier markets. Third, the US development assistance budget has become increasingly constrained, with growing pressure to cut programs. Within this context, we assess the need for a modern, full-service US Development Finance Corporation and provide a series of options for how the next US president could structure such an institution consistent with bipartisan congressional support and budgetary realities. For such a USDFC, we propose below potential products, services, and tools; size, scale, and staffing requirements; governance structures and oversight functions; performance metrics; and capital structure models. We conclude with a notional implementation road map that includes the required US executive and legislative actions. -- downloaded pdf to Note
report  development  IFIs  aid  US_politics  public-private_partnerships  development-impact  development-finance  emerging_markets  FDI  technical_assistance  technology_transfer  US_government  US_politics-foreign_policy  fiscal_policy  cross-border  LDCs  World_Bank  IFC  downloaded 
october 2015 by dunnettreader
Lu Ming - Myths and Realities of China’s Urbanization | Paulson Institute - August 2015
as a direct result of these deeply held beliefs, Beijing has relied on administrative controls, not market mechanisms, to direct China’s urbanization process (...) has yielded some major deficiencies in China’s overall urbanization policy. (..) Beijing has imposed tight hukou controls on the country’s biggest cities, thus restricting their ability to grow. Second, the Chinese government has relied excessively on administrative power to accelerate urbanization in China’s central and western regions, even though people are, in fact, moving largely to the country’s coastal areas. Third, Beijing has encouraged the development of small and medium sized cities, but these are usually scattered far away from regional economic centers. Lu’s memo proposes several adjustments aimed at mitigating the distorted economic effects of the policies that have flowed from these misunderstandings. Five specific areas of China’s current urbanization policy require changes, says Lu. These are: (1) China’s hukou system; (2) the way that China allocates construction land quotas; (3) China’s fiscal transfer payment system; (4) the use of economic growth and tax revenue targets in the evaluation and promotion system for officials and cadres; and (5) the use of planning tools in metropolitan areas and urban cores. Lu makes a number of policy recommendations in each of these five areas, arguing that only in this way can China effectively respond to the challenges that have bedeviled urbanization in other countries. -- didn't download
paper  China  China-economy  China-governance  urbanization  urban_development  safety_net  land_use_planning  local_government  fiscal_policy  incentives-distortions 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Aida Caldera, Mikkel Hermansen, Oliver Röhn - Economic resilience: A new set of vulnerability indicators | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 19 September 2015
The Global Crisis and its high costs have revived interest in early warning indicators of economic risks. This column presents a new set of indicators to detect vulnerabilities and assess country-specific risks of suffering a crisis. The empirical evidence confirms the usefulness of the vulnerability indicators in warning of severe recessions and crises in OECD countries. But indicators are no silver bullet and should be complemented with other monitoring tools, including expert judgement. -- paper giving overview of OECD Program working on indicators of upcoming crises and macro policies that could be adopted to head off crises -- stress on linkages across 6 clusters of economic activity and potential vulnerabilities -- in tuning indicators, looking at trade off between false positives and insufficient strength of negative signals, and the costs of responding to false positives vs failing to respond to warning flags -- also trying to see how, via linkages, prudential measures in one area might reduce vulnerabilities in other areas, so not left with only the blunt instrument of monetary policy
paper  OECD  OECD_economies  BRICS  business_cycles  recessions  macroeconomic_policy  macroeconomics  macroprudential_policies  financial_system  financial_crisis  credit_booms  fiscal_policy  FX-misalignment  capital_flows  housing  FDI  forecasts 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Jeet Heer - Sex, Economics, and Austerity | The American Prospect - 2013
John Maynard Keynes was the sexiest economist who ever lived. This might seem like half-hearted praise since in our mind’s eye the typical economist appears as… On the decades of right-wing attacks on Keynes and Keynesianism using sexual "immorality" as linked to purported moral failings of Keynes' policy responses from Versailles onward.
article  Instapaper  intellectual_history  intellectual_history-distorted  20thC  21stC  Keynes  Keynesianism  economic_history  economic_theory  macroeconomics  Great_Depression  right-wing  neoconservatism  fiscal_policy  budget_deficit  austerity  economics-and-morality  from instapaper
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Dave Roberts - Carly Fiorina did a 4-minute riff on climate change. Everything she said was wrong.| Vox - August 2015
Fiorina is test marketing the "moderate Republican" approach to do-nothing policies on climate change -- don't look like a crazy science denialist, but after "accepting the science" provide misinformation to justify do-nothing
Pocket  US_politics  GOP  climate-denialism  climate  climate-adaptation  diplomacy-environment  US_foreign_policy  renewables  oil  coal  fiscal_policy  EPA  from pocket
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Leeper, Traum, Walker - Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass: Prior and Posterior Analysis | NBER Working Paper July 2015
Eric M. Leeper, Nora Traum, Todd B. Walker -- NBER Working Paper No. 21433 -- We use Bayesian prior and posterior analysis of a monetary DSGE model, extended to include fiscal details and two distinct monetary-fiscal policy regimes, to quantify government spending multipliers in U.S. data. The combination of model specification, observable data, and relatively diffuse priors for some parameters lands posterior estimates in regions of the parameter space that yield fresh perspectives on the transmission mechanisms that underlie government spending multipliers. Posterior mean estimates of short-run output multipliers are comparable across regimes—about 1.4 on impact—but much larger after 10 years under passive money/active fiscal than under active money/passive fiscal—means of 1.9 versus 0.7 in present value. -- quelle surprise
paper  paywall  NBER  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  monetary_policy-effectiveness  countercyclical_policy 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
John Dunn, ed. - The Economic Limits to Modern Politics (1992) | Cambridge University Press
The central problem of modern government and political action is how to choose and implement effective economic policies. For this reason, the economic considerations of public policy have assumed a more prominent place in contemporary political thought. Despite efforts among political scientists, economists, and sociologists to fathom the complexities of this added dimension, none of these solid sciences offers a satisfying approach to the problem. This volume attempts to display the historical novelty and intellectual importance of this dilemma, to uncover its origins, and to procure a remedy through a clearer and steadier focus. The book's contributors range from historians of ideas to economic theorists, who bring the approach of their own intellectual discipline to bear upon the issue. **--** Introduction, John Dunn *-* 1. The economic limits to modern politics, John Dunn *-* 2. The wealth of one nation and the dynamics of international competition, Istvan Hont *-* 3. The political limits to pre-modern politics, J. G. A. Pocock *-* 4. The economic constraints on political programs, Frank H. Hahn *-* 5. International liberalism reconsidered, Robert O. Keohane *-* 6. Capitalism, socialism, and democracy: compatibilities and contradictions John Dunn. -- ebook Adobe Reader - not clear whether in kindle format -- excerpt (10 ogs Intro) downloaded pdf to Note
books  kindle-available  17thC  18thC  19thC  20thC  intellectual_history  economic_history  political_history  political_philosophy  political_economy  judgment-political  public_policy  capitalism  competition-interstate  economic_growth  development  raison-d'-état  British_history  British_politics  British_Empire  trade  trade-policy  Great_Divergence  economic_theory  political_culture  economic_culture  macroeconomic_policy  Innovation  innovation-government_policy  collective_action  property_rights  Labor_markets  redistribution  fiscal_policy  fiscal-military_state  Davenant  Smith  social_order  social_democracy  liberalism  elites-political_influence  IR_theory  globalization  international_political_economy  public_finance  public_goods  class_conflict  downloaded 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol - La zone euro est-elle viable? Une perspective historique - La Vie des idées - 20 mai 2014
La crise de la zone euro a révélé les faiblesses constitutives de la monnaie unique ; mais les débats portant sur sa viabilité se limitent trop souvent à une vision purement économique de la zone euro. L’histoire complexe de la création de l’euro éclaire les enjeux financiers et politiques internationaux de l’unification monétaire. -- in many ways it's the same-old, same-old -- a group of countries with intense economic interaction that gets whip-sawed by exchange rates in a constantly evolving world that's increasingly globalized, especially capital movements -- under a series of arrangements from Bretton Woods onwards, they've been trying to manage or mitigate the problem, but they never solve it -- he repeatedly notes that the entire EC budget isn't more than 1% of the aggregate GNP of the member states -- useful aide-mémoire for each step in the evolution of the EU and European money arrangements paralled with each modification of the international monetary system -- though he notes repeatedly that finance is extremely mobile, not only within the Eurozone or within the EU but globally, and that labor and fiscal adjustments are extremely immobile within the Eurozone by comparison, he doesn't draw the obvious link of these severe mismatches to the repeated problems the EU has faced re money -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  economic_history  political_history  European_integration  post-WWII  post-Cold_War  international_monetary_system  Bretton_Woods  EU_governance  FX  FX-rate_management  FX-misalignment  Eurozone  Eurocrsis  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  sovereign_debt  Europe-federalism  EU-regulation  cross-border  Labor_markets  banking  ECB  EU-elections  political_participation  EU-Parliament  EU-parties  monetary_union  monetary_theory  international_economics  capital_flows  capital_controls  EU-fiscal_policy  convergence-econimic  fiscal_policy  Maastricht  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
David Lipton - The Key to Raising Business Investment: Keep Pushing the Accelerator | iMFdirect - The IMF Blog - July 2015
By David Lipton Why have businesses in advanced economies not been investing more in machinery, equipment and plants? Business investment is the largest…
Instapaper  Great_Recession  economic_growth  investment  fiscal_policy  demand-side  Keynesianism  macroeconomics  from instapaper
july 2015 by dunnettreader
B. Akitoby, Sanjeev Gupta, A. Senhadji - How fiscal policy can support medium- to long-term growth | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 18 July 2015
Bernardin Akitoby, Sanjeev Gupta, Abdelhak Senhadji -- IMF Research staff -- There has been a heated debate about the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a countercyclical tool but little evidence on how it can support growth. This column shows that fiscal policy can lift medium- and long-term growth in both advanced and developing economies. But all fiscal reforms are not equal in their growth dividend. Successful reforms are often part of a broader reform package and can balance the growth-equity trade-off.
Instapaper  fiscal_policy  fiscal_space  economic_theory  Keynesian  New_Keynesian  macroeconomics  economic_models  economic_growth  economic_policy  reform-economic  inequality  unemployment  countercyclical_policy  from instapaper
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Era Dabla-Norris et al - Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality : A Global Perspective | IMF Research - June 2015
Era Dabla-Norris ; Kalpana Kochhar ; Nujin Suphaphiphat ; Frantisek Ricka ; Evridiki Tsounta -- This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive. (Duh!) -- didn't download
paper  IMF  economic_growth  inequality  OECD_economies  LDCs  emerging_markets  fiscal_policy  labor  labor_standards  supply-side  tax_policy  access_to_finance  poverty  working_class  middle_class  trickle-down 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Arthur Goldhammer - The Old Continent Creaks | Democracy Journal: Summer 2015
not so long ago (the EU) was praised by some as a model of ingenious institutional innovation and cooperative transnational governance, while simultaneously denounced by others as an insidious instrument for subjecting ostensibly democratic states to the imperious dictates of capitalism in its latest “neoliberal” form? For 2 generations after World War II, memories of the devastating consequences of nationalism trumped economic rivalries, giving technocrats maneuvering room to devise continental strategies for economic growth that nevertheless enabled member states to maintain sufficient control over social policy to satisfy voter demands. For decades, this arrangement held.By the mid-1980s, however, enormous changes in the global economy forced the European Community to reinvent itself in order to remain competitive. The original balance between national sovereignty and technocratic government at the European level was altered, limiting the ability of member states to set their own economic policy. But today’s convergent crises raise the question of whether the European Union that replaced the European Community needs to reinvent itself yet again. And if so, is reinvention possible at a time when many Europeans, and especially those for whom World War II is a distant memory, feel that the EU is exacerbating nationalist enmities rather than calming them? -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  Europe  20thC  21stC  EU  EU_governance  technocracy  nation-state  nationalism  regional_blocs  sovereignty  democracy_deficit  political_participation  opposition  globalization  competition-interstate  Eurozone  economic_policy  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  sovereign_debt  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
JW Mason - The Myth of Reagan’s Debt | Slackwire - June 2015
Arjun and I have been working lately on a paper on monetary and fiscal policy. (You can find the current version here.) The idea, which began with some posts on… It's all about the interplay of interest rates, growth rates and inflation rates -- thanks, Volker!
Instapaper  economic_history  political_history  20thC  post-WWII  US_politics  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  deficit_finance  interest_rates  economic_growth  inflation  Volker  Fed  Reagan  budget_deficit  from instapaper
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Robert Waldmann - Angry Bear » What Remains of the Keynesian Revolution ? - February 2009
Robert Waldmann I like to criticize financies, financial regulators and fresh water economists. I should defend something for once. It is easy to criticize. So… -- with one outlier, the data still looking Keynesian
Instapaper  economic_theory  economic_models  macroeconomics  Great_Recession  Keynesianism  neoclassical_economics  RBC  rational_expectations  supply-side  demand-side  business_cycles  monetary_policy  fiscal_policy  from instapaper
june 2015 by dunnettreader
Jonathan D. Ostry , Atish R. Ghosh , and Mahvash S. Qureshi - Managing Capital Flows in Frontier Economies | IMF Direct - April 2015
By Jonathan D. Ostry , Atish R. Ghosh , and Mahvash S. Qureshi  There has been a remarkable increase in financial flows to frontier economies from private… Enfin! Just 20+ years late. Nice roundup of various people (like Rodrik) thinking about all the variables, including what sorts of local institutional capacity (government and financial markets and institutions) are required for (1) absorbing different types of capital flows or (2) if a country wants to restrict flows in some fashion, to manage different types of restrictions. Additionally, there are challenges to the basic premise of encouraging capital flows to frontier markets -- these countries are more likely to be investment constrained than the unproven assumption that they're savings constrained. Macroeconomic impacts are also getting a closer look, not only the dilemmas of managing monetary policy and exchange rates -- e. g., FDI can be defeated if inflows raise the rate to reduce trade advantages. Since the biggest issuers from frontier markets tend to be the state, there's a big potential impact on sustainability of fiscal policy (to say nothing of corruption), and again the exchange rate impacts can be severe in both directions. The post is mainly an outline of an ambitious, multidimensional research program that's emerging among development economists, financial economists, macroeconomics in both the OECD countries and think tanks in emerging markets and the IFIs. -- finally the discussion has moved off the obsession with flight capital that took root in the 1980s and was the trump played anytime anyone questioned the happy-happy conventional wisdom of capital liberalization promoters.
economic_theory  macroeconomics  capital_flows  FDI  IFIs  IMF  capital_controls  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  FX  FX-misalignment  neoliberalism  globalization  emerging_markets  frontier_markets  competitiveness  technology_transfer  infrastructure  development  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_sector_development  financial_stability  banking  interest_rates  institutional_investors  institutional_capacity  institution-building  central_banks  governance  bibliography  Instapaper  from instapaper
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Giovanni Dosi, et al -Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Complex Evolving Economies -- 2013 :: SSRN
Giovanni Dosi, Giorgio Fagiolo, Mauro Napoletano, Andrea Roventini, Tania Treibich -- In this paper we explore the effects of alternative combinations of fiscal and monetary policies under different income distribution regimes. In particular, we aim at evaluating fiscal rules in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions. We do so using an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous capital- and consumption-good firms, heterogeneous banks, workers/consumers, a Central Bank and a Government. We show that the model is able to reproduce a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities, including stylised facts concerning financial dynamics and banking crises. Simulation results suggest that the most appropriate policy mix to stabilize the economy requires unconstrained counter-cyclical fiscal policies, where automatic stabilizers are free to dampen business cycles fluctuations, and a monetary policy targeting also employment. Instead, "discipline-guided" fiscal rules such as the Stability and Growth Pact or the Fiscal Compact in the Eurozone always depress the economy, without improving public finances, even when escape clauses in case of recessions are considered. Consequently, austerity policies appear to be in general self-defeating. Furthermore, we show that the negative effects of austere fiscal rules are magnified by conservative monetary policies focused on inflation stabilization only. Finally, the effects of monetary and fiscal policies become sharper as the level of income inequality increases. -- Pages in PDF File: 38 -- Keywords: agent-based model, fiscal policy, monetary policy, banking crises, income inequality, austerity policies, disequilibrium dynamics -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  macroeconomics  fiscal_policy  fiscal_drag  austerity  Eurozone  EU_governance  EU  equilibrium  financial_crisis  bank_runs  inequality  countercyclical_policy  agent-based_models  complexity  recessions  dynamic_attractors  complex_adaptive_systems  downloaded 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Ashoka Mody - Living (dangerously) without a fiscal union | Bruegel.org - March 24 2015
The euro area’s political contract requires member nations to rely principally on their own resources when confronted with severe economic distress. Since monetary policy is the same for all, national fiscal austerity is the default response to counter national fiscal stress. Moreover, the monetary policy was itself stodgy in countering the crisis, and banking-sector problems were allowed to fester. And it was considered inappropriate to impose losses on private sector creditors. Thus, the nature of the incomplete monetary union and the self-imposed taboos led deep and persistent fiscal austerity to become the norm. As a consequence, growth was hurt, which undermined the primary objective of lowering the debt burden. To prevent a meltdown, distressed nations were given official loans to repay private creditors. But the stress and instability continued and soon it became necessary to ease the repayment terms on official loans. When even that proved insufficient, the German-inspired fiscal austerity was combined with the deep pockets of the European Central Bank. The ECB’s safety net for insolvent or near-insolvent banks and sovereigns, in effect, substituted for the absent fiscal union and drew the central bank into the political process. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  Great_Recession  Eurozone  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  austerity  ECB  banking  financial_system-government_back-stop  financial_crisis  too-big-to-fail  creditors  sovereign_debt  financial_regulation  capital_adequacy  capitalization  bailouts  bail-ins  debt-restructuring  debt  debt_crisis  debt-seniority  deleverage  political_economy  EU_governance  monetary_union  downloaded 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Janet L. Yellen, “Behavioral Economics and Economic Policy in the Past and Future” (September 2007 speech) - President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco
Panel on: “Behavioral Economics and Economic Policy in the Past and Future”
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference: “Implications of Behavioral Economics for Economic Policy”, Boston, Massachusetts, September 28, 2007 -- linked to as good literature overview for behavioral_economics and its uses -- downloaded pdf to Note
speech  Yellen  Fed  central_banks  monetary_policy  fiscal_policy  economic_policy  behavioral_economics  economic_theory  economic_sociology  macroeconomics  microfoundations  incentives  incentives-distortions  lit_survey  bibliography  downloaded 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Brad DeLong - Paul de Grauwe: QE and the Euro Zone: The Sad Consequences of the Fear of QE | Equitablog - Jan 2015
Saved de Grauwe's post at The Economist to Instapaper -- Brad's introductory comments to the link to de Grauwe are his take on what would be necessary for QE to be really effective in the Euro Zone (unlikely to make a huge difference in expectations re future inflation) and the small likely effects, with even smaller likely dangers.
Eurozone  ECB  QE  central_banks  inflation-expectations  Germany-Eurozone  economic_growth  fiscal_policy  austerity  sovereign_debt  Instapaper 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Bill Gale - Adjusting the President’s Capital Gains Proposal | Brookings Institution - Jan 2015
Galevpropoees a standard 20% of current asset value as the deduction for calculating capital gains on inherited assets -- Creating a standard basis would impose “rough justice” on the taxation of capital gains at death. That is not always ideal, but it is a lot better than the current “no justice” system we have now and it would make Obama’s proposal easier to implement while also eliminating one of the chief concerns with his proposal.
Obama_administration  tax_policy  tax_reform  capital_gains  inheritance  US_politics  fiscal_policy 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
JULIAN GOODARE - The debts of James VI of Scotland | JSTOR - The Economic History Review New Series, Vol. 62, No. 4 (NOVEMBER 2009), pp. 926-952
James VI (1567–1625) was chronically indebted, and this caused him frequent problems. This article presents two series of systematic data that together indicate the main contours of his indebtedness: (1) end-of-year deficits, and (2) hived-off debts which the Crown left unpaid for long periods (sometimes permanently). The hived-off debts, reconstructed individually, constitute a narrative of fiscal policy-making. Instead of a large and catastrophic bankruptcy, James in effect had numerous small bankruptcies. He benefited from an emerging structure of Scottish domestic credit. He eventually repaid many of his debts after succeeding to the English throne in 1603. -- huge bibliography, mostly Scottish history -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  jstor  economic_history  political_history  16thC  17thC  James_I  Scotland  Britain  public_finance  fiscal_policy  deficit_finance  sovereign_debt  Crown_finance  financial_system  credit  bankruptcy  bibliography  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Forrest Capie, review - Eric Helleiner, The Making of National Money: Territorial Currencies in Historical Perspective | JSTOR - The Economic History Review Vol. 56, No. 3 (Aug., 2003), p. 594
Mostly a 19thC to 20thC phenomenon relying on creation of nation-state and industrial capacity. Discusses what countries did and do without national currency, challenges to establishing e.g. free banking, alternatives e.g. dollarization with or contra to government policy. Downloaded 1 page review to Note
books  reviews  jstor  economic_history  19thC  20thC  nation-state  national_ID  monetary_policy  fiscal_policy  currency  commerce  FX  dollarization  free_banking  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
How the US Resolved Its First Debt Ceiling Crisis | Liberty Street Economics - March 2013
downloaded pdf to iPhone - the post has full text but without the references in the pdf -- In the second half of 1953, the United States, for the first time, risked exceeding the statutory limit on Treasury debt. How did Congress, the White House, and Treasury officials deal with the looming crisis? As related in this post, they responded by deferring and reducing expenditures, by monetizing “free” gold that remained from the devaluation of the dollar in 1934, and ultimately by raising the debt ceiling.
paper  downloaded  post-WWII  US_economy  US_politics  military-industrial_complex  monetary_policy  Bretton_Woods  international_monetary_system  FX  fiscal_policy  budget_deficit  Congress  sovereign_debt 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Brad DeLong - Slides for a Talk: Thoughts on Making a Better Economics
Downloaded pdf to iPhone and saved html to Evernote - gaps between pre-crisis econ and lost or underused knowledge - and gaps between ehat economists knew and said vs public understanding & further gap to policy -- lots of links
economic_theory  macroeconomics  macroeconomic_policy  austerity  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  downloaded  links 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
SNB working paper - Konrad Adler & Christian Grisse: “Real exchange rates and fundamentals: robustness across alternative model specifications” (Oct 2014) | via The Big Picture
This paper explores the robustness of behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) models, focusing on a panel specification with Swiss franc real bilateral rates as dependent variables. We use Bayesian model averaging to illustrate model uncertainty, and employ real exchange rates computed from price level data to explore robustness to the inclusion or exclusion of fixed effects. We find that the estimated coefficients – and therefore also the implied equilibrium values – are sensitive to (1) the combination of explanatory variables included in the model, (2) the set of currencies included in the panel and (3) the inclusion of fixed effects. Increases in government consumption and net foreign assets and improvements in the terms of trade in Switzerland relative to foreign countries are associated with a Swiss franc real appreciation, as predicted by economic theory. By contrast, several macroeconomic variables commonly thought to be linked to real exchange rates are found not to exhibit a robust relationship with Swiss franc real rates. Our findings can help policymakers in understanding the uncertainty associated with estimates of equilibrium exchange rates. - downloaded to iPhone
economic_theory  macroeconomics  intermational_economics  global_economy  FX  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  central_banks  public_finance  interest_rates  inflation  asset_prices  paper  downloaded 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Kose, Prasad, Rogoff & Wei (2009) - Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal
downloaded to iPhone - see also papers citing this - The literature on the benefits and costs of financial globalization for developing countries has exploded in recent years, but along many disparate channels with a variety of apparently conflicting results. There is still little robust evidence of the growth benefits of broad capital account liberalization, but a number of recent papers in the finance literature report that equity market liberalizations do significantly boost growth. Similarly, evidence based on microeconomic (firm- or industry-level) data shows some benefits of financial integration and the distortionary effects of capital controls, but the macroeconomic evidence remains inconclusive. At the same time, some studies argue that financial globalization enhances macroeconomic stability in developing countries, but others argue the opposite. This paper attempts to provide a unified conceptual framework for organizing this vast and growing literature, particularly emphasizing recent approaches to measuring the catalytic and indirect benefits to financial globalization. Indeed, it argues that the indirect effects of financial globalization on financial sector development, institutions, governance, and macroeconomic stability are likely to be far more important than any direct impact via capital accumulation or portfolio diversification. This perspective explains the failure of research based on cross-country growth regressions to find the expected positive effects of financial globalization and points to newer approaches that are potentially more useful and convincing.
credit  financial_innovation  spreads  financial_crisis  contagion  investment  financial_sector_development  interest_rates  FDI  emerging_markets  download  bubbles  FX  capital_flows  monetary_policy  fiscal_policy  financial_system  IMF  banking  NBFI  business_cycles  sovereign_debt  global_economy  macroeconomics  globalization 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Matthew Yglesias - Vox Jan 2015 - Fair Value Accounting: The obscure rule change that could make student loans more expensive
Proponents of Fair Value Accounting raise a lot of valid concerns about the way the United States Congress handles federal loan programs. To me, trying to resolve those problems with FVA is a cure worse than the disease. (...) But what is fundamentally called for here is political judgment not an accounting rule. It is also true that many — and perhaps most — federal credit programs are somewhat ill-conceived as policy and that it would be easier to get rid of them if we implemented FVA. But the federal government's ability to make affordable loans available in situations that would be too risky for a private bank is a real consequence of its nature as a sovereign state, not some kind of accounting error.
US_government  fiscal_policy  subsidies  Congress  US_politics  austerity  public_finance  sovereign_debt 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Simon Wren-Lewis - The Eurozone Scandal - Jan 2015
EZ output gap produced by austrrity fiscal policy equivalent to wasting entire EU annual budget, and quoting Ashok Mody, ECB's effective monetary policy is in fact extraordinarily tight given failire to pursue QE -- But if countercyclical fiscal policy is effectively illegal in the Eurozone, these objections do not apply. QE for the people may have additional legal merits within the Eurozone. The ECB is constrained to some (uncertain) extent in its ability to buy government debt. But, as John Muellbauer suggests, mailing a cheque to every EZ citizen using electoral registers would seem to circumvent these legal difficulties. One objection to the ECB embarking on ‘QE for the people’ is that it goes well beyond the remit of a central bank. [3] Yet the ECB appears to have no qualms on that score: besides routine references for the need for fiscal consolidation and ‘structural reform’, the letter discussed by Paul De Grauwe here shows the ECB requiring detailed changes to labour market regulations and institutions in Spain. So you have to ask why is it OK for the central bank to override the democratic process in this way, but giving money directly to the people is somehow beyond the pale.
Eurozone  austerity  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  ECB  QE  Great_Recession 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Thorsten Beck, W Wagner, PR Lane, D Schoenmaker, E Carletti, F Allen - CEPR Report summary: Cross-border banking in Europe | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 20 June 2011
...a new CEPR report analysing key aspects of cross-border European banking. (..) policy reforms in micro- and macro-prudential regulation and macroeconomic policies are urgently needed for Europe to improve its efficiency and reduce its risk. -- compared to previous experiences, cross-border banking itself played a relatively positive role during the crisis – especially for countries in C & E Europe that rely heavily on foreign banks. Rather, the crisis has been exacerbated by an inadequate response of regulators (..)a misalignment of regulatory incentives and a lack of an appropriate resolution framework on both national and supra-national level. -- we study whether cross-border banking flows in the EU create risk concentrations that may amplify financial vulnerabilities. ... it is key to evaluate this issue not only at the level of the individual countries, but also at the EU-level. (..) we find that the structure of the large banking centres in the EU tends to be well balanced. C & E European countries are highly dependent on a few W European banks, and the Nordic and Baltic (is) interwoven without much diversification. At the system-level, the EU – in contrast to other regions – is poorly diversified (plus) overexposure to the US. (..) [given need to manage systemic risks in setting macro policy] requires a partial reversal from strict inflation targeting (..) even though financial stability is an important prerequisite for effective monetary policy. (..) One such risk [that cross-border banks are prone to is] that in times of crisis, the prices of assets may no longer reflect fundamental values (especially under) mark-to-market accounting. (..) (our recommendations focus) on solutions at the European – rather than the national – level. (..)the only real alternative to this is to require cross-border banks to organise themselves as a string of national stand-alone subsidiaries, which foregoes the significant benefits of having a single market in the EU. -- downloaded pdf to Note
report  EU  Eurozone  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  risk-systemic  banking  cross-border  regulation-harmonization  macroprudential_policies  macroprudential_regulation  macroeconomics  fiscal_policy  taxes  corporate_tax  shadow_banking  downloaded  EF-add 
november 2014 by dunnettreader
Thorsten Beck, W Wagner, PR Lane, D Schoenmaker, E Carletti, F Allen - CEPR Report: Cross-Border Banking in Europe: Implications for Financial Stability and Macroeconomic Policies (June 2011) | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal
This CEPR report argues that policy reforms in micro- and macro-prudential regulation and macroeconomic policies are needed for Europe to reap the important diversification and efficiency benefits from cross-border banking, while reducing the risks stemming from large cross-border banks. Among the wishlist is removing tax preferences for debt over equity. -- see related VoxEU bookmark to executive summary as a VoxEU article -- downloaded pdf to Note
report  EU  Eurozone  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  risk-systemic  banking  cross-border  regulation-harmonization  macroprudential_policies  macroprudential_regulation  macroeconomics  fiscal_policy  taxes  corporate_tax  shadow_banking  downloaded  EF-add 
november 2014 by dunnettreader
Fiscal federalism network - OECD
The OECD Network on Fiscal Relations across Levels of Government provides analysis and statistical underpinnings on the relationship between central and subcentral government, and its impact on efficiency, equity and macroeconomic stability. -- Main page for reports, white papers, guides, articles, links to OECD databases
OECD  website  OECD_economies  taxes  tax_collection  fiscal_policy  state_government  cities  federalism  sovereign_debt  public_finance  statistics  databases  report  links  accountability  reform-economic  reform-finance  reform-legal  comparative_economics  centralization  central_government  center-periphery  local_government  decentralization 
november 2014 by dunnettreader
Alain Charlet and Jeffrey Owens - An International Perspective on VAT - Tax Notes International, Sept 2010
An International Perspective on VAT -- by Alain Charlet and Jeffrey Owens -- Tax Notes International, Vol 59, No. 12, pp 943-54 -- September 20, 2010 -- Downloaded pdf from OECD > Centre for Tax Polic...
article  OECD  OECD_economies  taxes  tax_collection  consumers  fiscal_policy  economic_growth  political_economy  political_culture  government_finance  redistribution  sovereign_debt  inequality  downloaded  EF-add  from notes
november 2014 by dunnettreader
OECD's Committee on Fiscal Affairs - Consultation Papers and Comments Received (regularly updated) | Tax - OECD
The OECD's Committee on Fiscal Affairs consults with business and other interested parties through a variety of means to inform its work in the tax area. One important way of obtaining such input is through the release of papers or discussion drafts for public comment. Below is a list of past discussion drafts for comments: -- list with links to papers and comments regularly updated
OECD  OECD_economies  international_political_economy  global_governance  taxes  tax_havens  tax_collection  governments-information_sharing  fiscal_policy  sovereign_debt  public_finance  regulation-harmonization  regulation-enforcement  regulation-costs  transparency  cross-border  MNCs  international_organizations  international_finance  website  links  report 
november 2014 by dunnettreader
Oct 2014 - OECD - Heads of Tax Administration agree global actions | Tax administration - OECD
24/10/2014 - The OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Project and the move to automatic exchange of financial account information took centre stage when Heads of Tax Administration met on 23-24 October in Dublin, Ireland. Nearly forty delegations, including international and regional tax organisations, participated in the Ninth Meeting of the OECD Forum on Tax Administration (FTA) and agreed that ever greater co-operation will be necessary to implement the results of the BEPS project and automatic exchange of information. Specifically they agreed: ** A strategy for systematic and enhanced co-operation between tax administrations; ** To invest the resources needed to implement the new standard on automatic exchange of information; and ** To improve the practical operation of the mutual agreement process. The communiqué contains links to the following publications that have just been released by the FTA: ** Increasing Taxpayers’ Use of Self-service Channels ** Working Smarter in Tax Debt Management ** Tax Compliance by Design – Achieving improved SME Tax Compliance by Adopting a System Perspective ** Measures of Tax Compliance Outcomes – A Practical Guide -- The FTA is the leading international body concerned with tax administration, bringing together the heads of tax administrations from the OECD, members of the G20 and large emerging economies.
OECD_economies  emerging_markets  OECD  G20  BEPS  international_political_economy  global_governance  taxes  tax_havens  tax_collection  MNCs  SMEs  fiscal_policy  sovereign_debt  public_finance  regulation-harmonization  regulation-enforcement  regulation-costs  transparency  cross-border  governments-information_sharing  government_finance  government_agencies  administrative_law 
november 2014 by dunnettreader
Addressing the Tax Challenges of the Digital Economy (Sept 2014) - OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Project Tax | OECD
The spread of the digital economy poses challenges for international taxation. This report sets out an analysis of these tax challenges. It notes that because the digital economy is increasingly becoming the economy itself, it would not be feasible to ring-fence the digital economy from the rest of the economy for tax purposes. The report notes, however, that certain business models and key features of the digital economy may exacerbate BEPS risks. These BEPS risks will be addressed by the work on the other Actions in the BEPS Action Plan, which will take the relevant features of the digital economy into account. The report also analyses a number of broader tax challenges raised by the digital economy, and discusses potential options to address them, noting the need for further work during 2015 to evaluate these broader challenges and potential option. - Report can be read online or $ for download
report  OECD  G20  BEPS  21stC  international_political_economy  global_governance  MNCs  taxes  tax_havens  tax_collection  OECD_economies  transfer_pricing  transaction_costs  digital_economy  accounting  firms-structure  IP  profit  arms-length_transactions  treaties  corporate_citizenship  corporate_law  corporate_tax  reform-legal  fiscal_policy 
november 2014 by dunnettreader
Kash Mansouri - What Is This ‘BEPS’ Thing, and Should I Care? | Transfer Pricing Economics - Oct 2014
From OECD - "The debate over base erosion and profit shifting (‘BEPS’) has reached the highest political level and has become an issue on the agenda of several OECD and non-OECD countries… The G20 leaders’ meeting in Los Cabos on 18-19 June 2012 explicitly referred to “the need to prevent base erosion and profit shifting” in their final declaration. G20 finance ministers, triggered by a joint statement of UK Chancellor Osborne and German Finance Minister Shaüble, have asked the OECD to report on this issue by their meeting in February 2013. Such a concern was also voiced by US President Obama in his Framework for Business Tax Reform, where it is stated that “the empirical evidence suggests that income-shifting behaviour by multinational corporations is a significant concern that should be addressed through tax reform”." -- The BEPS project is essentially a bunch of working groups, composed of officials from the world’s largest economies, that are tasked with the job of trying to figure out how the international tax landscape for corporations should be changed. They are focusing on a few specific areas, including but not limited to: ** Tax avoidance by digital companies: Do different rules need to be created to specifically address the digital economy? ** Financial loopholes: What changes need to be made to prevent companies from using financial instruments like intercompany loans to avoid paying tax on some of their income? ** Intangibles: Should international transfer pricing norms be revised to make it harder for companies to reduce their taxes simply by moving their intangibles to low-tax jurisdictions? ** Documentation: What sort of international reporting standards could be imposed to make it harder for global companies to shift their income into low-tax jurisdictions?
21stC  international_political_economy  global_governance  MNCs  taxes  tax_havens  tax_collection  OECD_economies  OECD  G20  BEPS  fiscal_policy  reform-legal  reform-economic  profit  transfer_pricing  transnational_elites  IP 
november 2014 by dunnettreader
Home - Path to Full Employment | Project of Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
For most of the last few decades, the U.S. labor market has operated with considerable slack. Periods of full employment have been the exception, not the rule. In response, Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and previously Vice President Biden’s chief economic adviser, and the Center have begun a multiyear project to focus greater attention on the goal of reaching full employment and develop policy ideas to achieve this critical goal. To learn more about the project, visit our events page to watch our April 2 kick-off event at the National Press Club. To read a set of papers on policy ideas to get back to full employment, go to our papers’ page (this event was made possible thanks to a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation). -- Launched with big event and clutch of papers in April 2014 -- downloaded to Note pdf of Jared Bernstein's project overview paper -- as of October 2014 no new activity
US_economy  US_government  US_society  US_politics  Congress  Great_Recession  inequality  unemployment  labor  labor_law  labor_share  wages  wages-minimum  labor_standards  fiscal_policy  state_government  infrastructure  investment  downloaded  EF-add 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Nitzan, Jonathan - LSE Public Event: Can Capitalists Afford Recovery? -- Video and Paper (May 2014) | bnarchives
Presentation at the LSE Department of International Relations. 27 May 2014. -- Theorists and policymakers from all directions and of all persuasions remain obsessed with the prospect of recovery. For mainstream economists, the key question is how to bring about such a recovery. For heterodox political economists, the main issue is whether sustained growth is possible to start with. But there is a prior question that nobody seems to ask: can capitalists afford recovery in the first place? If we think of capital not as means of production but as a mode of power, we find that accumulation thrives not on growth and investment, but on unemployment and stagnation. And if accumulation depends on crisis, why should capitalists want to see a recovery? -- Video duration: 2:24 hours -- Keywords: crisis, differential accumulation, economic policy, economic theory, expectations, growth, income distribution, Keynesianism, Marxism, monetarism, neoclassical economics, profit, underconsumption -- Subjects: BN State & Government, BN Power, BN Region - North America, BN Business Enterprise, BN Value & Price, BN Crisis, BN Production, BN Macro, BN Conflict & Violence, BN Money & Finance, BN Ideology, BN Distribution, BN Methodology, BN Capital & Accumulation, BN Policy, BN Class, BN Labour, BN Growth -- links to LSE on YouTube -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  video  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  economic_growth  capital_as_power  capitalism-systemic_crisis  economic_theory  economic_models  macroeconomics  neoclassical_economics  Keynesian  Marxist  monetarism  monetary_policy  fiscal_policy  austerity  sovereign_debt  public_finance  public_policy  productivity  production  consumer_demand  underconsumption  investment  profit  productivity-labor_share  distribution-income  distribution-wealth  finance_capital  financialization  capitalization  accumulation  accumulation-differential  elites-self-destructive  elite_culture  ruling_class  class_conflict  Labor_markets  inequality  unemployment 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Dave Johnson - The Cost To Our Economy From Republican Obstruction And Sabotage | Campaign for America's Future - September 2014
After listing key filibusters -- What would it have meant for the economy and jobs to launch a post-stimulus effort to maintain and modernize our infrastructure? How about reversing the tax structure that pays companies to move jobs out of the country? How about equal pay for women? How about a minimum wage increase? How about hundreds of thousands of teachers and first responders going back to work? How about being able to organize into unions to fight for wages, benefits and safer working conditions? How about relief from crushing student loan debt? -- In the House GOP leadership has been following the “Hastert Rule” to obstruct bills that would win with a majority vote. -- So instead of looking at what has been blocked in the House, we should look at what has passed. What has passed is a record of economic sabotage. Noteworthy is the GOP “Path to Prosperity Budget” (“Ryan budget”), described as “Cuts spending & implements pro-growth reforms that boost job creation.” It dramatically cuts taxes on the rich. It privatizes Medicare. It cuts spending on infrastructure, health care for the poor, education, research, public-safety, and low-income programs. It turns Medicaid, food stamps, and other poverty programs into state block grants. And lo and behold, this GOP budget that passed the House cuts taxes and cuts funding for even maintaining – never mind modernizing – our vital infrastructure needs. This is a budget of economic sabotage. Other GOP House “jobs” bills, listed at Boehner’s “jobs” page include: -- horrifyingly awful policies with Orwellian titles or red meat specials -- special attention to keeping oil & gas subsidies flowing and eviserating regulation, especially EPA -- Johnson stresses, the voters are unaware of all this thanks in part to the MSM which is ballanced re political parties, pro business & anti labor, and guilty of mindlessly peddling what Wren-Lewis calls mediamacro. Good links
US_economy  US_politics  Congress  Great_Recession  GOP  unemployment  public_finance  public_goods  state_government  welfare  social_insurance  poverty  infrastructure  Obama_administration  health_care  women-rights  women-work  wages  fiscal_policy  fiscal_drag  taxes  1-percent  energy  climate  regulation-environment  R&D  Senate  House_of_Representatives  polarization  student_debt  education-finance  education-privatization  corporate_tax  labor_law  unions  trickle-down 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Joseph E. Stiglitz - Reconstructing Macroeconomic Theory to Manage Economic Policy | NBER - September 2014
Macroeconomics has not done well in recent years: The standard models didn't predict the Great Recession; and even said it couldn't happen. After the bubble burst, the models did not predict the full consequences. The paper traces the failures to the attempts, beginning in the 1970s, to reconcile macro and microeconomics, by making the former adopt the standard competitive micro-models that were under attack even then, from theories of imperfect and asymmetric information, game theory, and behavioral economics. The paper argues that any theory of deep downturns has to answer these questions: What is the source of the disturbances? Why do seemingly small shocks have such large effects? Why do deep downturns last so long? Why is there such persistence, when we have the same human, physical, and natural resources today as we had before the crisis? The paper presents a variety of hypotheses which provide answers to these questions, and argues that models based on these alternative assumptions have markedly different policy implications, including large multipliers. It explains why the apparent liquidity trap today is markedly different from that envisioned by Keynes in the Great Depression, and why the Zero Lower Bound is not the central impediment to the effectiveness of monetary policy in restoring the economy to full employment. -- paywall
paper  paywall  macroeconomics  microfoundations  economic_theory  economic_models  Great_Recession  monetary_policy  Keynes  liquidity  fiscal_policy  Stiglitz 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Developing a Narrative: The Great Recession and Its Aftermath (Part 3 of 5) | Liberty Street Economics - September 24, 2014
Andrea Tambalotti and Argia Sbordone -- This series examines the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (FRBNY DSGE) model—a structural model used by Bank researchers to understand the workings of the U.S. economy and provide economic forecasts. -- Astonishing - exclusively supply side - especially initial hit to TFP which, however, they say has recovered. Demand impacts are exclusively investment demand, which they see as dampened by credit channel frictions (banks scared of risk) and the exclusive policy response discussed is Fed policy. No stimulus, no fiscal drag especially in the states, no unemployment, no consumer declining wealth, no exchange rates -- WTF?!?!?!
US_economy  Great_Recession  macroeconomics  modelling  supply-side  demand-side  investment  monetary_policy  fiscal_policy 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Chart of the day | occasional links & commentary -September 2014
Standard & Poor’s [pdf] finds a strong correlation between growing income inequality and the fiscal crisis of the states. The argument is pretty straightforward: rising income inequality since the late 1970s has been accompanied by two trends in the tax revenues received by the various states: a slowing in the rate of growth of tax revenues (from 1980 to 2011, average annual state tax revenue growth fell to 5 percent from 10 percent) and by a growing volatility in state tax revenues (from a standard deviation of 3.55 during 1950-1979 and 1.04 during 1990-1999 to 5.78 from 2000 to 2009). And the explanation for this relationship? - " the higher savings rates of those with high incomes causes aggregate consumer spending to suffer. And since one person’s spending is another person’s income, the result is slower overall personal income growth despite continued strong income gains at the top." On top of that, "Those at the top obtain more of their income from capital gains, which on the whole, fluctuate much more than income from wages. Tax revenues reflect this — both as a consequence of higher top-end tax rates and because the top end is where the income growth has occurred –- and are, therefore, more volatile." Thus, we should understand the following: when Standard & Poor’s downgrades the credit rating of one or another state, it’s actually downgrading the rise of income inequality within and across the states.
US_economy  US_government  state_government  taxes  tax_collection  fiscal_policy  public_finance  rating_agencies  inequality  1-percent  capital_gains  economic_growth  wages  savings 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Coen Teulings, Richard Baldwin - Secular stagnation: Facts, causes, and cures – a new Vox eBook | vox 10 September 2014
The CEPR Press eBook on secular stagnation has been viewed over 80,000 times since it was published on 15 August 2014. -- Six years after the Crisis and the recovery is still anaemic despite years of zero interest rates. Is ‘secular stagnation’ to blame? Introduction - Coen Teulings and Richard Baldwin **--** I. Opening the debate -- 1. Reflections on the ‘New Secular Stagnation Hypothesis’, Laurence H Summers. **--** II. Three issues: Potential growth, effective demand, and sclerosis -- 2. Secular stagnation: A review of the issues, Barry Eichengreen -- 3. The turtle’s progress: Secular stagnation meets the headwinds, Robert J Gordon -- 4 Four observations on secular stagnation, Paul Krugman. -- 5. Secular joblessness, Edward L Glaeser. **--** III. Further on potential growth. -- 6. Secular stagnation? Not in your life - Joel Mokyr. -- 7 Secular stagnation: US hypochondria, European disease?, Nicholas Crafts. **--** IV. Further on effective demand. -- 8. A prolonged period of low real interest rates?, Olivier Blanchard, Davide Furceri and Andrea Pescatori. -- 9. On the role of safe asset shortages in secular stagnation, Ricardo J Caballero and Emmanuel Farhi. -- 10. A model of secular stagnation, Gauti B. Eggertsson and Neil Mehrotra. -- 11. Balance sheet recession is the reason for secular stagnation, Richard C Koo. -- 12. Monetary policy cannot solve secular stagnation alone
Guntram B Wolff. **--** V. Further on sclerosis -- 13. Secular stagnation: A view from the Eurozone, Juan F. Jimeno, Frank Smets and Jonathan Yiangou -- downloaded pdf to Note
books  etexts  kindle-available  economic_history  18thC  19thC  20thC  21stC  economic_theory  economic_growth  Great_Recession  stagnation  international_political_economy  capitalism  financialization  productivity  investment  technology  Labor_markets  unemployment  demand-side  supply-side  infrastructure  welfare_state  sovereign_debt  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  central_banks  leverage  risk  uncertainty  macroeconomics  macroprudential_policies  international_monetary_system  global_economy  global_imbalance  interest_rates  profit  wages  Eurozone  US_economy  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Alex Rosenberg - Paul Krugman’s Philosophy of Economics, and What It Should Be » 3:AM Magazine
All the New Classical economists need to defend the dominant “paradigm” in economics against Krugman and other dissenters are the tools he grants them—maximization and equilibrium. -- Rosenberg then goes into Keynes, Knight, Soros re uncertainty and reflexivity. Comes up with too strong a conclusion that since economics is an historical science, you can't make predictions. But there's a big difference between predictions of a long term outcome, or even a specific business cycle and yet have history-confirmed principles that, e.g. fiscal policy should be countercyclical or that a balance sheet recession is unlikely to push prices up, and monetary policy loses traction so it's not going to generate inflation, or a monetary union without a fiscal union and consolidated banking regulation is likely to blow up. Worse, Rosenberg is reiterating the false myth that the Keynesian thinking couldn't explain the 1970s and the New Classicals could. History contradicts the macro implications of EMH, Ricardian equivalence, RBC, etc. Actually it was Friedman monetarism that "explained" the 1970s, and when Friedman theory was attempted in the 1980s it had to be abandoned since it simply didn't work. The New Classicals were initially along for the monetarism ride and consolidated ideologically in academia by ignoring real world failures, which were relatively unimportant during the Great Moderation which they claimed to have produced or at least understood.
economic_history  intellectual_history  economic_theory  macroeconomics  microfoundations  neoclassical_economics  Keynesian  political_economy  philosophy_of_social_science  methodology  monetarism  monetary_policy  fiscal_policy  causation-social  mechanism  systems_theory  complexity  risk-systemic  uncertainty  probability 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Paper announcement - Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity - May 2014 | Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis - New School
The Journal of International Money and Finance, one of the top journals for international finance, published SCEPA economists, Christian R. Proaño, Christian Schoder and Willi Semmler's working paper, 'Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Threshold Regressions.' This paper is an expansion on their policy note, 'The Role of Financial Stress in Debt and Recovery' which studied the change in the sovereign debt and its impact on economic growth. Their study discovered that national debt was insignificant in determining the level of economic growth a country experiences as long as the financial market was stable. National debt was only detrimental to countries if there were high levels of instability and risk in the financial market. These findings explain why austerity policies have failed to promote economic growth, because economic growth depends first on financial market stability, and is only an issue if financial markets are unstable. -- but what's the sources of financial market instability? Exchange rate - ability to adjust, or volatility? Capital flows? Amount of cross-border exposure of domestic banking system? Contagion? Bond market vigilantes?
paper  economic_history  economic_growth  sovereign_debt  austerity  fiscal_policy  financial_system  capital_markets  Eurozone 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Suzanne J. Konzelmann - The political economics of austerity | Cambridge Journal of Economics 2013
Birkbeck, University of London. -- The 2007/08 financial crisis has reignited the debate about economic austerity. With the aim of understanding why a government would pursue such a policy in the current context of persistent economic recession, this article traces the social, political and economic developments that have together shaped the evolution of ideas about austerity, from the earliest theorising by the classical political economists some 300 years ago. Throughout the historical narrative, important analytical themes revolve around the arguments used to justify austerity—notably appeals to ethics and morality (reinforced by misleading analogies drawn between government budgets and the accounts of firms and households). These include concerns about inflation and the observed relationship between inflation and unemployment; ‘Ricardian equivalence’ and ‘non-Keynesian’ effects of austerity; and the correlation between public debt levels and economic growth. The class analytics of austerity—who bears the burden of austerity and who benefits—and the process by which alternative ideas penetrate the mainstream and reconstitute the conventional wisdom are also important analytical themes. -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  intellectual_history  political_economy  economic_theory  economic_sociology  economic_policy  17thC  18thC  19thC  20thC  21stC  Great_Recession  austerity  business_cycles  business-and-politics  ideology  macroeconomics  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  inflation  unemployment  moral_economy  historical_sociology  class_conflict  public_opinion  public_finance  sovereign_debt  economic_growth  debt  debtors  creditors  intermediation  Labor_markets  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
PHILIP LOFT -- POLITICAL ARITHMETIC AND THE ENGLISH LAND TAX IN THE REIGN OF WILLIAM III. (2013). | The Historical Journal, 56, pp 321-343. - Cambridge Journals Online - Abstract
PHILIP LOFT - University College London -- This article explores the role of the method of political arithmetic and political arithmeticians in the changing methods of raising finance during the Nine Years War. It discusses the actions of parliament-men in committees and their interaction with reports containing data, and the influence of projectors on the decision to introduce, and later abandon, the pound rate. Throughout this period, political arithmeticians were active participants, providing data, advice, and schemes to the treasury and parliament, and when they were not, ‘country’ MPs, in particular, were active in calling for data and leading its cross-examination. This article suggests that debates on public finance did not occur along party lines, with ‘county communities’ given fresh presence by the quantification of the inequality of the land tax burden. Political arithmetic is shown to have played an important role in the processes and negotiations that occurred over the setting of taxation policy in the ‘long eighteenth century’. -* I thank Julian Hoppit for his generous encouragement and comments on this article. Thanks also to Clare Jackson, Andrew Preston and the anonymous reviewers. - available for download - to Note
article  17thC  18thC  British_history  British_politics  economic_history  political_economy  Glorious_Revolution  William_III  Nine_Years_War  taxes  landed_interest  land_tax  fiscal_policy  fiscal-military_state  political_arithmetick  Parliament  House_of_Commons  Parliamentary_supremacy  Country_Party  oversight-legislature  public_finance  public_policy  partisanship  Whig_Junto  Tories  Whigs-opposition  sovereign_debt  downloaded  EF-add 
august 2014 by dunnettreader
Simon Wren-Lewis - mainly macro: Taylor rules: the ZLB and Euro Diversity - July 2014
Where is the ECB’s policy too tight? There are the obvious countries: Spain, Portugal, Italy and especially Greece. But there is another, which is the Netherlands. There is no mystery here: CPI inflation is currently (May) 0.8%, the harmonised rate is 0.1%, and unemployment has been over 7% this year, compared to an average of below 4% from 2000 to 2007. As the Netherlands does not have an independent monetary policy, it desperately needs a countercyclical fiscal policy, yet instead it is locked into the austerity trap imposed by the Eurozone’s fiscal rules. All of this was horribly predictable, which is why I wrote these posts: May12, Sept12, June13, Dec13. These fiscal rules are not going to be abolished anytime soon, even though their intellectual rationale has disappeared. The best that we can hope for is that their impact can be softened or partially circumvented by allowing additional public investment spending: see Reza Moghadam from the IMF here, or Wolfgang Münchau here and here, Guntram Wolff here, or Mariana Mazzucato here. But if in the future anyone wants to see the clearest example of where these rules led to large and completely unnecessary social costs, just look at the Netherlands. -- lots of links
macroeconomics  monetary_policy  fiscal_policy  EU  EU_governance  ECB  Eurozone  Great_Recession  austerity  links 
july 2014 by dunnettreader
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