dunnettreader + financial_economics   40

Gary Gorton
Mobile Collateral versus Immobile Collateral
Gary Gorton, Tyler Muir
NBER Working Paper No. 22619
Issued in September 2016
NBER Program(s):   AP   CF   DAE   EFG   ME
In the face of the Lucas Critique, economic history can be used to evaluate policy. We use the experience of the U.S. National Banking Era to evaluate the most important bank regulation to emerge from the financial crisis, the Bank for International Settlement's liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) which requires that (net) short-term (uninsured) bank debt (e.g. repo) be backed one-for-one with U.S. Treasuries (or other high quality bonds). The rule is narrow banking. The experience of the U.S. National Banking Era, which also required that bank short-term debt be backed by Treasury debt one-for-one, suggests that the LCR is unlikely to reduce financial fragility and may increase it.
NBFI  NBER  financial_stability  risk_management  collateral  financial_economics  capital_markets  bad_regulation  leverage  financial_system  risk-systemic  paywall  money_market  banking  paper  financial_regulation  BIS 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian - Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint? | IMF Staff Papers - Jan 2009
IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 112–138. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.29; published online 6 January 2009 -- The stylized fact that there is no correlation between long-run economic growth and financial globalization has spawned a recent literature that purports to provide newer evidence and arguments in favor of financial globalization. We review this literature and find it unconvincing. The underlying assumptions in this literature are that developing countries are savings-constrained; that access to foreign finance alleviates this to boost investment and long-run growth; and that insofar as there are problems with financial globalization, these can be remedied through deep institutional reforms. In contrast, we argue that developing economies are as or more likely to be investment- than savings-constrained and that the effect of foreign finance is often to aggravate this investment constraint by appreciating the real exchange rate and reducing profitability and investment opportunities in the traded goods sector, which have adverse long-run growth consequences. It is time for a new paradigm on financial globalization, and one that recognizes that more is not necessarily better. Depending on context and country, the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital inflows as to encourage them. Policymakers who view their challenges exclusively from the latter perspective risk getting it badly wrong. - downloaded pdf to Note
paper  downloaded  IMF  international_political_economy  international_finance  global_economy  emerging_markets  LDCs  capital_flows  investment  investment-government  development  economic_growth  economic_policy  economic_reform  access_to_finance  capital_controls  FX-misalignment  FX-rate_management  economic_theory  macroeconomics  international_economics  financial_economics  financial_sector_development 
may 2016 by dunnettreader
The Tri-Party Repo Market Like You Have Never Seen It Before | Liberty Street Economics - October 2015
They've got a database analytical tool that, like FRED, allows lots of slicing and dicing at all sorts of levels of details - history doesn't extend very far back since until the last 2 decades the repo market was tiny and dominated by a few specialist firms, not the brand-name players
Instapaper  financial_economics  databases  money_market  credit_booms  credit_crunch  bubbles  financial_crisis  shadow_banking  markets-structure  liquidity  bank_runs  from instapaper
october 2015 by dunnettreader
Leonard E. Burman, William G. Gale, et al - Financial transaction taxes in theory and practice | Brookings Institution - June 30, 2015
By: Leonard E. Burman, William G. Gale, Sarah Gault, Bryan Kim, Jim Nunns and Steve Rosenthal -- In response to the financial market crisis and Great Recession, there has been a resurgence of interest in financial transaction taxes (FTTs) around the world. We estimate that a well-designed FTT could raise about $50 billion per year in the United States and would be quite progressive. We discuss the effects of an FTT on various dimensions of financial sector behavior and its ambiguous effects on economic efficiency. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  financial_system  capital_markets  markets-structure  HFT  taxes  financial_economics  financial_transaction_tax  liquidity  market_makers  tax_policy  tax_collection  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Financial Market Trends - OECD Journal - Home page | OECD
‌The articles in Financial Market Trends focus on trends and prospects in the international and major domestic financial markets and structural issues and developments in financial markets and the financial sector. This includes financial market regulation, bond markets and public debt management, insurance and private pensions, as well as financial statistics. -- links to the contents of each issue of the journal
journal  website  paper  financial_system  global_economy  global_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_markets  risk-systemic  international_finance  banking  NBFI  insurance  markets-structure  risk_assessment  risk_management  sovereign_debt  corporate_finance  corporate_governance  institutional_investors  pensions  consumer_protection  equity-corporate  equity_markets  debt  debt-overhang  leverage  capital_flows  capital_adequacy  financial_economics  financial_innovation  financial_system-government_back-stop  bailouts  too-big-to-fail  cross-border  regulation-harmonization  regulation-costs  statistics 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Jakob de Haan, Dirk Schoenmaker -Teaching finance after the crisis | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 06 July 2015
The financial crisis brought with it many challenges, both to prevailing disciplinary tenets, and for research and policy more generally. This column outlines the lessons that can be drawn from the financial crisis – issues like financial market failures, macro-prudential policy, structural changes of the financial system, and the European banking union. It argues for the inclusion of these topics in curricula for the next generation of finance students
financial_economics  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_markets  EMH  information-markets  macroprudential_policies  cross-border  European_integration  ECB  banking  business_cycles  Minsky 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Edward B. Rock - Institutional Investors in Corporate Governance (Jan 2015) :: SSRN - Oxford Handbook on Corporate Law and Governance, 2015, Forthcoming
Penn Law School -- chapter examines the role of institutional investors in corporate governance and the role of regulation in encouraging institutional investors to become active stewards. (..) what lessons we can draw from the US experience for the EU’s 2014 proposed amendments to the Shareholder Rights Directive.(...) survey how institutional investors themselves are governed and how they organize share voting. (...) 2 central questions: (a) why, over the last 25 years, have institutional investors not fulfilled the optimists’ hopes?; and (b) can the core incentive problems that subvert Institutional Investor activism be cured by regulation? The US experience [substantial deregulation led to only modest increases in shareholder activism], suggests (..) institutional investors’ relative passivity is a fundamental lack of incentives. I examine the disappointing results of the SEC’s long experiment with incentivizing mutual funds to vote their shares (...) the EU efforts are likely to be similarly disappointing. I then examine the important role that hedge funds now play in catalyzing institutional shareholders, and consider some of the risks in relying on such highly incentivized actors. -- PDF File: 26 -- saved to briefcase
chapter  books  SSRN  law-and-economics  behavioral_economics  financial_economics  financial_regulation  corporate_governance  corporate_law  corporate_finance  capital_markets  corporate_control_markets  institutional_investors  shareholders  shareholder_voting  mutual_funds  incentives  activist_investors  investors  hedge_funds  proxies  comparative_law  administrative_law  EU-law  regulation-harmonization  regulation-enforcement  fiduciaries  profit_maximization  EU-regulation 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Ronald J. Gilson, Reinier Kraakman - Market Efficiency after the Financial Crisis: It's Still a Matter of Information Costs :: SSRN - European Corporate Governance Institute Law Working Paper No. 242/2014
Ronald J. Gilson, Stanford Law & Columbia Law; Reinier Kraakman, Harvard Law; both ECGI -- [Financial crisis is said] to have demonstrated the bankruptcy of the Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis (“ECMH”). (..) the ECMH had moved beyond academia, fueling decades of a deregulatory agenda. (..) when economic theory moves from academics to policy, (..) inevitably refashioned to serve the goals of political argument. This happened starkly with the ECMH. It was subject to its own bubble – (..) expanded from a narrow but important academic theory about the informational underpinnings of market prices to a broad ideological preference for market outcomes over even measured regulation. (..) the ECMH addresses informational efficiency, which is a relative, not an absolute measure. This focus on informational efficiency leads to a more focused understanding of what went wrong in 2007-2008. Yet informational efficiency is related to fundamental efficiency (..) Properly framing market efficiency focuses our attention on the frictions that drive a wedge between relative efficiency and efficiency under perfect market conditions. (..) relative efficiency is a diagnostic tool that identifies the information costs and structural barriers that reduce price efficiency which, in turn, provides part of a realistic regulatory strategy. While it will not prevent future crises, improving the mechanisms of market efficiency will make prices more efficient, frictions more transparent, and the influence of politics on public agencies more observable, which may allow us to catch the next problem earlier. PDF File: 87 -- saved to briefcase
paper  SSRN  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_markets  EMH  information-markets  information-asymmetric  efficiency  prices  financial_economics  animal_spirits  behavioral_economics 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Magic, maths and money: Finance and Mathematics: where is the ethical malaise?
This is a draft of an article that has been accepted by The Mathematical Intelligencer and offers an argument very similar to Romer’s ‘mathiness’ argument as…
Instapaper  economic_theory  economic_models  mathematization  bad_economics  financial_economics  from instapaper
june 2015 by dunnettreader
Understanding the Modern Monetary System by Cullen O. Roche :: SSRN - revised April 1, 2013
Orcam Financial Group, LLC -- August 5, 2011 -- This paper provides a broad understanding of the workings of the modern fiat monetary system in the United States. The work is primarily descriptive in nature and takes an operational perspective of the modern fiat monetary system using the understandings of Monetary Realism. -- Pages in PDF File: 40 -- downloaded pdf to Note
macroeconomics  financial_economics  monetary_policy  monetary_theory  central_banks  banking  interest_rates  financial_system  financialization  demand-side  investment  economic_models  downloaded 
june 2015 by dunnettreader
Zoltan Jakab and Michael Kumhof - Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds - and why this matters - Zoltan Jakab and Michael Kumhof | Bank of England - Working Paper No. 529 - 29 May 2015
In the intermediation of loanable funds model of banking, banks accept deposits of pre-existing real resources from savers and then lend them to borrowers. In the real world, banks provide financing through money creation. That is they create deposits of new money through lending, and in doing so are mainly constrained by profitability and solvency considerations. This paper contrasts simple intermediation and financing models of banking. Compared to otherwise identical intermediation models, and following identical shocks, financing models predict changes in bank lending that are far larger, happen much faster, and have much greater effects on the real economy. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  banking  intermediation  macroeconomics  economic_models  economic_theory  financial_economics  financial_system  credit  loanable_funds  downloaded 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Thorsten Beck, Ralph De Haas, Steven Ongena - Understanding Emerging Market Banks: A new eBook | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 06 November 2013
New micro-level data sets allow better testing of existing and new hypotheses on how banks operate in the often challenging environment of emerging markets. This column introduces an eBook that reports on the findings of a recent conference in London on using different research methodologies and data sources in banking research the way towards an exciting research agenda. The papers presented in the conference and summarised in this eBook point *-* First, more detailed micro-level data help researchers and practitioners understand the impact of innovative products, lending techniques, and delivery channels. *-* Second, micro-level data allow a more careful analysis of the impact of specific financial-sector policies on banks and customers. *'* Third, the data opens the important area of how demand- and supply-side constraints on entrepreneurs affect access to external finance. Applying lessons from behavioural economics will be critical in the third point. -- didn't download
etexts  financial_economics  banking  microfinance  emerging_markets  financial_innovation  property_rights  rule_of_law  accounting  methodology-quantitative  methodology-qualitative  SMEs  investment  entrepreneurs  access_to_finance  access_to_services  behavioral_economics 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Video - Robert C. Merton (2014) : Measuring the Connectedness of the Financial System: Implications for Systemic Risk Measurement and Management
Abstract -- Macrofinancial systemic risk is an enormous issue for both governments and large asset pools. The increasing globalization of the financial system, while surely a positive for economic development and growth, does increase the potential impact of systemic risk propagation across geopolitical borders, making its control and repairing the damage caused a more complex and longer process. (..) . The Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 and the subsequent European Debt Crisis were centered around credit risk, particularly credit risk of financial institutions and sovereigns, and the interplay of the two. The propagation of credit risk among financial institutions and sovereigns is related to the degree of “connectedness” among them. The effective measurement of potential systemic risk exposures from credit risk may allow the realization of that risk to be avoided through policy actions. Even if it is not feasible to avoid the systemic effects, the impact of those effects on the economy may be reduced by dissemination of that information and subsequent actions to protect against those effects and to subsequently repair the damage more rapidly. This paper applies the structural credit models of finance to develop a model of systemic risk propagation among financial institutions and sovereigns. Tools for applying the model for measuring connectedness and its dynamic changes are presented using network theory and econometric techniques. Unlike other methods that require accounting or institutional positions data as inputs for determining connectedness, the approach taken here develops a reduced-form model applying only capital market data to implement it. Thus, this model can be refreshed almost continuously with “forward-looking” data at low cost and therefore, may be more effective in identifying dynamic changes in connectedness more rapidly than the traditional models. This new research is still in progress. (..) In particular, it holds promise for creating endogenously specified stress test formulations. The talk closes with some discussion of the importance of a more integrated approach to monetary, fiscal and stability policies so as to better recognize the unintended consequences of policy actions in one of these on the others.
video  financial_system  financial_economics  financial_crisis  risk-systemic  networks-financial  networks-information  macroprudential_policies  macroprudential_regulation 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Filippo Occhino - Debt-Overhang Banking Crises | Cleveland Fed - Dec 2014
WP 14-25 -- This paper studies how a worsening of the debt overhang distortion on bank lending can explain banking solvency crises that are accompanied by a plunge of bank asset values and by a severe contraction of lending and economic activity. Since the value of bank assets depends on economic prospects, a pessimistic view of the economy can be self-fulfilling and can trigger a financial crisis: If economic prospects are poor, bank asset values decline, the bank risk of default rises, and the associated debt overhang distortion worsens. The worsening of the distortion leads to a contraction in bank loans and a decline in economic activity, which confirms the initial pessimistic view. Signals of the existence of systemic risk include: a rise in the volatility and the presence of two modes in the probability distribution functions of the returns of bank-issued bonds and of portfolios of bank-issued bonds and equities; and a surge in the correlation between bank-issued bond returns. Macroprudential policy should limit the sensitivity of bank balance sheets to the aggregate economy and to the financial sector, using investment restrictions, capital requirements, and stress tests. In the event of a crisis, policy options include reducing the above sensitivity with commitments and guarantees, stimulating the economy, and restructuring bank capital and ownership. -- didn't download -- wonder if he uses Minsky
paper  banking  financial_crisis  leverage  deleverage  economic_growth  risk-systemic  business_cycles  bank_runs  capital_markets  bond_markets  macroprudential_regulation  macroprudential_policies  volatility  default  firesales  FDIC  Fed  demand-side  credit  business-forecasts  Minsky  financial_economics 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Lars Syll - The Bernake-Summers Imbroglio | RWER April 2015
As no one interested in macroeconomics has failed to notice, Ben Bernanke is having a debate with Larry Summers on what’s behind the slow recovery of growth rates since the financial crisis of 2007. To Bernanke it’s basically a question of a savings glut. To Summers it’s basically a question of a secular decline in the level of investment. To me the debate is actually a non-starter, since they both rely on a loanable funds theory and a Wicksellian notion of a “natural” rate of interest — ideas that have been known to be dead wrong for at least 80 years … Let’s start with the Wicksellian connection and consider what Keynes wrote in General Theory: -- helpful re Keynes' rejection of "natural rate" (in effect there's a different natural rate for each level of employment - income, so it's comparative statics that blows up when savings or investment change, rather than being able to derive new equilibrium natural rate) -- and the problems with loanable funds theory - looks especially at Minsky and Kalecki - credit creation isn't result of increased savings but increased investment. Good snips and links -- saved to Pocket
economic_theory  macroeconomics  stagnation  savings_glut  global_imbalance  interest_rate-natural  monetary_policy  monetary_theory  central_banks  credit  financial_system  financial_economics  loanable_funds  investment  accounting_IDs  equilibrium  economic_models  Keynes  Minsky  Kalecki  links  Instapaper 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Andrew W. Lo - Reconciling Efficient Markets with Behavioral Finance: The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis - 2005 :: SSRN - Journal of Investment Consulting, Forthcoming
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) -- The battle between proponents of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and champions of behavioral finance has never been more pitched, and there is little consensus as to which side is winning or what the implications are for investment management and consulting. In this article, I review the case for and against the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, and describe a new framework - the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis - in which the traditional models of modern financial economics can co-exist alongside behavioral models in an intellectually consistent manner. Based on evolutionary principles, the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis implies that the degree of market efficiency is related to environmental factors characterizing market ecology such as the number of competitors in the market, the magnitude of profit opportunities available, and the adaptability of the market participants. Many of the examples that behavioralists cite as violations of rationality that are inconsistent with market efficiency - loss aversion, overconfidence, overreaction, mental accounting, and other behavioral biases - are, in fact, consistent with an evolutionary model of individuals adapting to a changing environment via simple heuristics. Despite the qualitative nature of this new paradigm, I show that the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis yields a number of surprisingly concrete applications for both investment managers and consultants. -- Pages in PDF File: 44 Keywords: Efficient markets, behavioral finance, adaptive markets
paper  SSRN  financial_economics  EMH  behavioral_economics  markets-structure  markets-psychology  rationality-economics  rationality-adaptive  efficiency  heuristics  methodology-qualitative  methodology-quantitative  complex_adaptive_systems  downloaded 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Reading About the Financial Crisis: A 21-Book Review by Andrew W. Lo :: SSRN
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) -- The recent financial crisis has generated many distinct perspectives from various quarters. In this article, I review a diverse set of 21 books on the crisis, 11 written by academics, and 10 written by journalists and one former Treasury Secretary. No single narrative emerges from this broad and often contradictory collection of interpretations, but the sheer variety of conclusions is informative, and underscores the desperate need for the economics profession to establish a single set of facts from which more accurate inferences and narratives can be constructed. -- Pages in PDF File: 41 -- Keywords: Financial Crisis, Systemic Risk, Book Review -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  reviews  books  economic_history  21stC  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  financial_system  financial_regulation  financialization  capital_markets  banking  NBFI  shadow_banking  regulation-enforcement  rent-seeking  fraud  debt  debtors  housing  securitization  derivatives  bank_runs  banking-universal  Glass-Steagal  risk_management  risk-systemic  financial_economics  global_system  global_imbalance  capital_flows  institutional_investors  institutional_economics  bubbles  Minsky  downloaded 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Franck Bessis , review essay - André Orléan, L’empire de la valeur - Vers un changement de paradigme en économie ? | June 2012 - La Vie des idées
Recensé : André Orléan, L’empire de la valeur. Refonder l’économie, Paris, Seuil, collection « La couleur des idées », 340 p., 23 €. -- Spécialiste des questions monétaires et financières, André Orléan fournit à travers la synthèse de ses recherches un ouvrage de référence pour renouveler l’analyse économique. Sa démarche invite également à repenser la place de l’économie au sein des sciences sociales et son rapport au politique. -- also available in English, downloaded French pdf to Note
books  reviews  economic_theory  intellectual_history  classical_economics  neoclassical_economics  labor_theory_of_value  marginalists  utility  financial_economics  monetary_theory  macroeconomics  political_economy  social_theory  ontology-social  social_sciences  downloaded 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Rajiv Sethi: On Animal Spirits and Knee-Jerk Reactions | December 2009
Mark Thoma re his trying, when reading Schiller, to overcome a knee-jerk reaction to claims that mass psychology drives markets rather than the reverse. Seth says: I too have the greatest respect for Shiller and consider his 1981 paper on stock price (relative to dividend) volatility to be an absolute classic. But I can't help thinking that too much is being asked of behavioral economics at this time, (..) regularities identified in controlled laboratory experiments with standard subject pools have limited application to environments in which the distribution of behavioral propensities is both endogenous and psychologically rare. This is the case in financial markets (..) Those who enter the profession are unlikely to be psychologically typical, and market conditions determine which behavioral propensities survive and thrive at any point in historical time. If one is to look beyond economics for metaphors and models, why stop at psychology? For financial market behavior, a more appropriate discipline might be evolutionary ecology. This is not a new idea. (..) look at the chapter on "The Ecology of Markets" in Victor Niederhoffer's extraordinary memoir. Or study Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis .. which depends explicitly on the assumption that aggressive financial practices are rapidly replicated during periods of stable growth, eventually becoming so widespread that systemic stability is put at risk. To my mind this reflects an ecological rather than psychological understanding of financial market behavior.
behavioral_economics  financial_economics  financial_system  social_psychology  systems-complex_adaptive  ecology  Minsky  Schiller  animal_spirits  capital_markets  financial_crisis  principal-agent  markets-psychology  markets-structure  contagion 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Sven Ove Hansson -Risk (updated 2011) | Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Since the 1970s, studies of risk have grown into a major interdisciplinary field of research. Although relatively few philosophers have focused their work on risk, there are important connections between risk studies and several philosophical subdisciplines. This entry summarizes the most well-developed of these connections and introduces some of the major topics in the philosophy of risk. It consists of six sections dealing with the definition of risk and with treatments of risk related to epistemology, the philosophy of science, the philosophy of technology, ethics, and the philosophy of economics.
1. Defining risk [including objective vs subjective and risk vs uncertainty - the latter comparison mostly formalized in decision tgeory]
2. Epistemology
3. Philosophy of science
4. Philosophy of technology
5. Ethics
6. Risk in economic analysis
Related Entries -- causation: in the law | causation: probabilistic | consequentialism | contractarianism | economics, philosophy of | game theory | luck: justice and bad luck | scientific knowledge: social dimensions of | technology, philosophy of
philosophy  epistemology  epistemology-social  epistemology-moral  causation  causation-social  probability  Bayesian  moral_philosophy  utilitarianism  utility  rights-legal  game_theory  philosophy_of_science  philosophy_of_social_science  economic_theory  behavioral_economics  financial_economics  sociology_of_knowledge  philosophy_of_law  risk  risk-mitigation  risk_management  uncertainty  rational_choice  rationality-economics 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Special Issue: Microfinance -- AEAweb: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics Vol. 7 No.1, Jan 2015
Abstract of introductory article -- Causal evidence on microcredit impacts informs theory, practice, and debates about its effectiveness as a development tool. The six randomized evaluations in this volume use a variety of sampling, data collection, experimental design, and econometric strategies to identify causal effects of expanded access to microcredit on borrowers and/or communities. These methods are deployed across an impressive range of locations—six countries on four continents, urban and rural areas—borrower characteristics, loan characteristics, and lender characteristics. Summarizing and interpreting results across studies, we note a consistent pattern of modestly positive, but not transformative, effects. We also discuss directions for future research. -- broad conclusion to be expected contra the hype -- but focus still seems to be on *credit* (with assumptions re micro and SME entrepreneurs and business formation) rather than access to services -- also question whether the former Yugoslavia study really dealt with "micro", likely the sort of labeling of SMEs as micro like Aftab's programs
journals-academic  article  paywall  microfinance  access_to_finance  development  economic_growth  economic_sociology  development-impact  RCT  econometrics  causation  causation-social  financial_sector_development  financial_economics  financial_access  institutional_economics  banking  credit  financial_innovation  SMEs  access_to_services  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
T. G. Otte, review - Martin Horn, Britain, France, and the Financing of the First World War | JSTOR - The Economic History Review Vol. 56, No. 3 (Aug., 2003), pp. 578-579
Gives very high marks to both archival research and analysis - shows governance mechanisms and both cooperation and conflict, which varied over time from early (expectation of a short war) to the latter years when France was done for without external finance. Notes that Horn demolishes one of Niall Ferguson claims - so academic specialists were on to his questionable historiography on the economic policies of British Empire long before he became a joke on macroeconomics. Derives some of the conflict from the very different national objectives for "finance capital" for their respective nations and empires. Doesn't seem to get into the reparations problem. It appears the later part deals some with US loans, but transatlantic isn't a big focus. Also deals with some conflicts over support to specific allies e.g. Russia. Didn't download
books  reviews  jstor  economic_history  20thC  WWI  Britain  British_Empire  British_foreign_policy  France  French_Empire  financial_economics  international_finance  money_market  sovereign_debt  Russian_revolution  US_foreign_policy  financial_centers  financial_centers-London  WWI-finance 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Jocelyn Pixley, G.C. Harcourt eds. - Financial crises and the nature of capitalist money: Mutual developments from the work of Geoffrey Ingham (2013) | Palgrave Macmillan
This volume is a debate about a sociology and economics of money: a form of positive trespassing (..) written by scholars of both disciplines (..) starting from the original groundwork laid by Geoffrey Ingham. The contributors look critically at money's institutions and the meanings and history of money-creation and show the cross cutting purposes or incommensurable sides of money and its crises. (...) since money is a promise, understanding this social relation must be a joint though plural task between economics and sociology at the very least. **--** Preface; R. Swedeberg *-* 1. Introduction to Positive Trespassing'; J. F. Pixley and G. C. Harcourt *-* 2. Requirements of a Philosophy of Money and Finance; J. Smithin *-* 3. Ingham and Keynes on the Nature of Money; M. Hayes *-* 4. Money: Instrument of Exchange or Social Institution of Value? A. Orlean and C. Goodhart *-* 5. A New Meme for Money, R. Wray *-* 6. Monetary Surrogates and Money's Dual Nature; D. Woodruff *-* 7. Reforming Money to Exit the Crisis: Examples of Non-capitalist Monetary Systems in Theory and Practice; L. Fantacci *-* 8. The Current Banking Crisis in the UK: an Evolutionary View; V. Chick *-* 9. Money and the State; M. Sawyer *-* 10. The Real (Social) Experience of Monetary Policy; S. Dow *-* 11. Economic Policies of the New Consensus Macroeconomics: A Critical Appraisal; P. Arestis *-* 12. A Socio-economic Systems Model of the 2007+ Global Financial Crisis; T.R. Burns, A. Martinelli and P. Deville *-* 13. Credit Money, Fiat Money and Currency Pyramids: Critical Reflections on the Financial Crisis and Sovereign Debt, B. Jessop *-* 14. Geoffrey Ingham's Theory, Money's Conflicts and Social Change; J. Pixley *-* 15. Reflections on the Two Disciplines' Mutual Work; G. Ingham
books  social_theory  economic_theory  social_sciences  disciplines  money  economic_sociology  economic_culture  macroeconomics  financial_economics  financial_system  banking  financial_crisis  sovereign_debt  monetary_theory  money-Cartelist  money_supply  monetarism  monetary_policy  central_banks  financial_innovation 
november 2014 by dunnettreader
Lapavitsas, Costas - Banks and the Design of the Financial System: Underpinnings in Steuart, Smith and Hilferding (2002) - SOAS Research Online (School of Oriental and African Studies)
Banks in bank-based financial systems tend to engage in long-term lending that requires substantial own capital to guarantee solvency. In market-based systems, in contrast, they tend to undertake short-term lending that requires adequate reserves to guarantee liquidity. Theoretical support for these two approaches to banking can be found in, respectively, Steuart and Smith. The innovative Marxist analysis of banking by Hilferding combined elements of both. Banks in the early stages of development are Smith-like but, as the scale of fixed investment in industry grows, they lend long-term and become Steuart-like, also developing ‘commitment’ relations with enterprises. However, Hilferding also implied, erroneously, that financial systems historically evolve in a bank-based direction. Based on Hilferding but also drawing on Japanese Marxist analysis of finance, it is suggested instead that bank behaviour in bank-based systems results from institutional changes imposed by policy-makers in order to achieve ‘catching up.’ -- Item Type: Monographs (Working Paper) -- Keywords: Adam Smith, James Steuart, Rudolf Hilferding, banking theory, Marxist theory of finance -- SOAS Departments & Centres: Faculty of Law and Social Sciences > Department of Economics -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  intellectual_history  economic_history  18thC  19thC  20thC  21stC  financial_system  finance_capital  banking  financial_economics  Marxist  leverage  credit  money_market  industrialization  investment  liquidity  financial_crisis  capital_adequacy  financial_sector_development  financial_innovation  Smith  Steuart_James  Hilferding  downloaded  EF-add 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Gary A. Dymski, Jesus Hernandez, and Lisa Mohanty - Race, Power, and the Subprime/Foreclosure Crisis: A Mesoanalysis - Working Paper No. 669 | Levy Economics Institute - May 2011
Economists’ principal explanations of the subprime crisis differ from those developed by noneconomists in that the latter see it as rooted in the US legacy of racial/ethnic inequality, and especially in racial residential segregation, whereas the former ignore race. This paper traces this disjuncture to two sources. What is missing in the social science view is any attention to the market mechanisms involved in subprime lending; and economists, on their side, have drawn too tight a boundary for “the economic,” focusing on market mechanisms per se,to the exclusion of the households and community whose resources and outcomes these mechanisms affect. Economists’ extensive empirical studies of racial redlining and discrimination in credit markets have, ironically, had the effect of making race analytically invisible. Because of these explanatory lacunae, two defining aspects of the subprime crisis have not been well explained. First, why were borrowers that had previously been excluded from equal access to mortgage credit instead super included in subprime lending? Second, why didn’t the flood of mortgage brokers that accompanied the 2000s housing boom reduce the proportion of minority borrowers who were burdened with costly and ultimately unpayable mortgages? This paper develops a mesoanalysis to answer the first of these questions. This analysis traces the coevolution of banking strategies and client communities, shaped by and reinforcing patterns of racial/ethnic inequality. The second question is answered by showing how unequal power relations impacted patterns of subprime lending. Consequences for gender inequality in credit markets are also briefly discussed. -- Associated Program: Monetary Policy and Financial Structure -- Related Topic(s): Discrimination Ethnicity Foreclosures Mesoanalysis Race Redlining Subprime mortgage crisis -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  US_economy  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  bubbles  housing  securitization  banking  shadow_banking  racism  inequality  power-asymmetric  discrimination  ethnic_ID  redlining  financial_economics  social_sciences  interdisciplinarity  financial_access  downloaded 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
An Assessment of the FRBNY DSGE Model's Real-Time Forecasts, 2010-13 (Part 4 of 5) | Liberty Street Economics - September 25, 2014
Matthew Cocci, Marco Del Negro, Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni, and Sara Shahanaghi -- This series examines the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model—a structural model used by Bank researchers to understand the workings of the U.S. economy and provide economic forecasts. In predicting output growth, the model’s forecasts have been comparable to, if not better than, the median Survey of Professional Forecasters forecasts. To some extent, the SPF has been too sanguine about growth, especially in the medium-long term, as professional forecasters have repeatedly anticipated a strong recovery in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Conversely, the DSGE model has been consistently predicting a very slow recovery following the financial shock. As a consequence, for each of the years considered, the SPF produced overly optimistic growth forecasts, which, as time passed and more information was accumulated, declined to where the DSGE model had been all along. (Bear in mind that some of the misses reflect the comprehensive revisions of the national income and product accounts data.) The model’s forecasts of continued weak growth reflect financial headwinds that have lasted well past the end of the recession. These headwinds stem from the high perceived riskiness of borrowers—a credit friction that disrupts financial intermediation—and the low perceived return on physical investment, as described in more detail in the previous post in this series. Overall, the DSGE model has historically performed as well as—if not better than—consensus forecasters in predicting macroeconomic trends. Continual refinement of the model specification has helped account for the effects of credit frictions and changes in the perceived risks in the economy as drivers of the Great Recession, enabling the model to predict a slow recovery much earlier than the median SPF forecaster.
US_economy  economic_history  macroeconomics  Great_Recession  modelling  economic_growth  financial_crisis  financial_system  credit  intermediation  financial_economics 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Lance Taylor - Maynard's Revenge: The Collapse of Free Market Macroeconomics (2011) | Harvard University Press
Taylor argues that the ideas of J.M. Keynes and others provide a more useful framework both for understanding the crisis and for dealing with it effectively. Keynes’s basic points were fundamental uncertainty and the absence of Say’s Law. He set up machinery to analyze the macro economy under such circumstances, including the principle of effective demand, liquidity preference, different rules for determining commodity and asset prices, distinct behavioral patterns of different collective actors, and the importance of thinking in terms of complete macro accounting schemes. Economists working in this tradition also worked out growth and cycle models. Employing these ideas throughout Maynard’s Revenge, Taylor provides an analytical narrative about the causes of the crisis, and suggestions for dealing with it. 1. Macroeconomics. 2. Macroeconomic Thought during the Long 19thC. 3. Gold Standard, Reparations, Mania, Crash, and Depression. 4. Maynard Ascendant. 5. Keynesian Growth, Cycles, and Crisis. 6. The Counterrevolution. 7. Finance. 8. The International Dimension. 9. Keynesianism and the
books  intellectual_history  economic_theory  economic_history  economic_models  18thC  19thC  20thC  social_sciences-post-WWII  entre_deux_guerres  political_economy  macroeconomics  classical_economics  neoclassical_economics  Keynes  Keynesianism  Post-Keynesian  finance_capital  financial_economics  microfoundations  EMH  rational_expectations  rationality-economics  rationality-bounded  behavioral_economics  business_cycles  Great_Depression  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  gold_standard  economic_growth  international_monetary_system  balance_of_payments  FX  uncertainty  liquidity  savings  Labor_markets  wages 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Franco Fiordelisi, Davide Salvatore Mare - Competition and financial stability in European cooperative banks | Journal of International Money and Finance, July 2014, Vol.45:1–16 — ScienceDirect
doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.02.008 Highlights • We investigate competition and financial stability in European cooperative banks. • We assess the dynamic relationship both in the short and long run. • Higher competition increases bank stability. • No impact of the recent financial crisis on the competition and stability link. • Herding behaviour affects positively bank stability. **--** Cooperative banks are a driving force for socially committed business at the local level, accounting for around one fifth of the European Union (EU) bank deposits and loans. Despite their importance, little is known about the relationship between bank stability and competition for these small credit institutions. Does competition affect the stability of cooperative banks? Does the financial stability of banks increase/decrease when competition is higher? We assess the dynamic relationship between competition and bank soundness (both in the short and long run) among European cooperative banks between 1998 and 2009. We obtain three main results. First, we provide evidence in line with the competition-stability view proposed by Boyd and De Nicolò (2005). Bank market power negatively “Granger-causes” banks' soundness, meaning that there is a positive relationship between competition and stability. Second, we find that this fundamental relationship does not change during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Third, we show that increased homogeneity in the cooperative banking sector positively affects bank soundness. Our findings have important policy implications for designing and implementing regulations that enhance the overall stability of the financial system and in particular of the cooperative banking sector.
paper  paywall  financial_economics  financial_sector_development  financial_system  competition  banking  SMEs  Eurozone  financial_regulation 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
JW Mason - The Slack Wire: Piketty and the Money View - September 2014
All the empirical material in the book relates to stocks and flows of money. But when he turns to explain the patterns he finds in this data, he does it in terms of physical inputs to physical production. The money wealth present in a country is assumed to correspond to the physical capital goods, somehow converted to a scalar quantity. And the incomes received by wealth owners is assumed to correspond to a physical product somehow attributable to these capital goods. But the production processes that are supposed to explain these shifts are described without any data at all, purely deductively. You would think that if Piketty believed that the share of property income in total income depends on physical production technologies, returns to scale, depreciation, etc., then at least half the book would be taken up with technological history. In fact, of course, these topics are not discussed at all. Terms like “production” and “depreciation” are black boxes, pure mathematical formalism. -- Unfortunately, discussion of the book has been almost entirely about the irrelevant formalism. I think that is why the conversation has been so noisy yet advanced so little. -- the disconnect between the two different Pikettys shows, in a negative way, why what I've been calling the money view is so important. The historical data assembled in Capital in the 21st Century is a magnificent accomplishment and will be drawn on by economic historians for years to come. Many of the concrete observations he makes about this material are original and insightful. But all of this is lost when translated into Piketty's preferred theoretical framework. To make sense of the historical evolution of money payments and claims, we need an approach that takes those payments and claims as objects of study in themselves.
books  Piketty  wealth  capitalism  capital  macroeconomics  economic_theory  economic_models  economic_growth  money  investment  investors  profit  technology  production  productivity  political_economy  financial_economics  financial_system  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Useless finance, harmful finance and useful finance | willem buiter's maverecon - April 2009
Lengthy post on destructive aspects of derivatives trading and why they need to be severely regulated - preferably outlawing naked derivatives, forcing them back into their most justifiable form -- The endless churning of contingent claims, including derivatives, when the purchaser has no identifiable insurable interest, turns financial intermediation into a market-mediated betting shop. Then the betting slips become bearer securities and are themselves traded, either OTC or on organised exchanges, and the derivative transactions volumes expand to dwarf the transactions in the markets for the underlying financial claims (let alone the markets for the underlying real resources). At that point, the betting tip of the financial tail of the real economy dog does all the wagging. It does not create value but redistributes it in a way that consumes real resources and exposes the real economy to unnecessary risk. It’s time to tame the tiger. -- citesTobin's Hirsch lecture on different types of financial efficiency, roles of insurance function
financial_system  financial_economics  derivatives  EMH  efficiency  Tobn  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  insurance  investment  real_economy 
july 2014 by dunnettreader
Rajiv Sethi: The Economics of Hyman Minsky - Dec 2012
There has been a resurgence of interest in the economic writings of Hyman Minsky over the past few years, and for good reason. I find this immensely gratifying. I first came across his work as a graduate student, and remember being struck by the manner in which he was able to weave together sweeping macroeconomic hypotheses with rich institutional and historical detail. -- excerpts by Rajiv from an edited book in honor of Minsky and a 1992 paper - the 2nd dealing with Financial Instability Hypothesis (Minsky and Kindleberger) and whether it violates Rational Expectations - Rajiv distinguishes between rationality of decisions vs remaining on Rational Expectations equilibrium trajectory - he doesn't discuss, but partly depends on what "rational" is (what goals are presumed toward which "rational" decisions are made re actions) and the various levels of decision makers (what's rational for loan officer not necessarily for bank) - also mentions follow-the-leader but doesn't develop problem that most financial innovations take advantage of anomalies, and excess profits aren't going to be available to followers, but the shift into innovation likely adds unrecognized risk (or inadequate profit to cover risk) to system structure
financial_economics  business_cycles  financial_crisis  financial_system  financial_innovation  rational_expectations  Minsky  Kindleberger  Pocket 
july 2014 by dunnettreader
Claire Judde de Larivière - The 'Public' and the 'Private' in 16thC Venice: From Medieval Economy to Early Modern State | JSTOR: Historical Social Research / Historische Sozialforschung, Vol. 37, No. 4 (142) (2012), pp. 76-94
This article analyses the Venetian public galleys' expeditions during the sixteenth century, as a case study for understanding the relationships between patricians and the State, and the way in which the 'public' and the 'private' roles were reorganized in the late Middle Ages. Going further the explanations usually given, the article tries to explain the decline of the public galleys, and emphasizes the symbolic, cultural, political and ideological factors that had also led to the abandonment of public navigation. It seeks to reintegrate economic considerations, practices, actions and actors into their social, political and ideological contexts, and thus avoids isolating economic phenomena and economic thinking from their political background. Doing so, it argues that the abandonment of public navigation in Venice was the corollary of the gradual differentiation between the State and the ruling class that was typical of the earliest stages of modernity. -- interesting bibliography ranging from Frederic Lane to Craig Muldrew -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  jstor  economic_history  16thC  Venice  shipping  public_goods  public_enterprise  private_enterprise  elites  stratification  privatization  capitalism  imperialism  political_culture  economic_culture  elite_culture  political_economy  Renaissance  modernity-emergence  social_order  public_finance  financial_economics  financial_innovation  common_good  republicanism  republics-Ancient_v_Modern  mercantilism  empire-and_business  downloaded  EF-add 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
JW Mason - The Slack Wire: Mehrling on Black on Capital - June 2014
From Mehrking - downloaded pdf to Note -- Black’s emphasis is on the market value of wealth calculated as the expected present value of future income flows, rather than on the quantity of wealth calculated as the historical accumulation of savings minus depreciation. This allows Black to treat knowledge and technology as forms of capital, since their expected effects are included when we measure capital at market value. For Black, the standard aggregative neoclassical production function is inadequate because it obscures sectoral and temporal detail by attributing current output to current inputs of capital and labor, -- It’s familiar math, but the meaning it expresses remains very far from familiar to the trained economist. For one, the labor input has been replaced by human capital so there is no fixed factor. For another, both physical and human capital are measured at market values, and so are supposed to include technological change. This means that the A coefficient is not the usual technology shift factor (the familiar “Solow residual”) but only a multiplier, indeed a kind of inverse price earnings ratio, that converts the stock of effective composite capital into a flow of composite output. -- In retrospect, the most fundamental source of misunderstanding came (and comes still) from the difference between an economics and a finance vision of the nature of the economy. The classical economists habitually thought of the present as determined by the past. The financial point of view, by contrast, sees the present as determined by the future, or rather by our ideas about the future...and the quantity of capital can therefore change without prior saving.
economic_theory  economic_models  economic_growth  macroeconomics  Piketty  neoclassical_economics  financial_economics  capital  wealth  investment  savings  interest_rates  profit  productivity  human_capital  technology  labor  downloaded  EF-add 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
JW Mason - The Slack Wire: Further Thoughts on Anti-Financialization - May 2014
Together, these fictional transactions now make up 20 percent of GDP, and fully a third of apparent household consumption. Of course, that might change. The decline of homeownership and the creation of a rental market for single-family homes may turn the fiction of a housing sector of tenants and profit-seeking landlords into a reality. One result of Obamacare -- intended or otherwise -- will be to replace collective purchases of health insurance by employers with individual purchases by households. Maybe the Kochs and Mark Zuckerberg will join forces and succeed in privatizing the schools. But none of that has happened yet. What's striking to me is how many critics of contemporary capitalism -- including Cynamon and Fazzari themselves -- have accepted the myth of rising household consumption, without realizing there's no such thing. The post 1980s rise in consumption is a statistical artifact of the ideology of capitalism -- a way of pretending that a world of collective production and consumption is a world of private market exchange. -- The underlying issue from my point of view is that we have an economic discourse that collapses capitalism, finance, markets, and productive activity into a single frame. But these are all different things, with their own distinct logics. We have to recognize that financial relations evolve independently of relations of production and consumption. Changes in assets and debt don't have to reflect anything happening in the "real" economy.
economic_history  US_economy  20thC  consumers  statistics  debt  capitalism  economic_theory  financial_economics  EF-add 
may 2014 by dunnettreader
Clifford Asness, John Liew - The Great Divide over Market Efficiency | Institutional Investor March 2014
The Nobel committee decided to split the economic prize between Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller — and that’s okay. - superb description of what's wrong with EMH extremism (value and momentum really do produce better returns over the long haul that can't be accommodated in a risk adjusted rational equilibrium, and there really are bubbles when the market as a whole goes batshit crazy) but it's a good starting assumption with fewer irrationalities or anomalies that can be exploited than much behaviorist literature would seem to suggest. They then have some motherhood and apple pie suggestions for what government should and shouldn't do to improve the efficiency of markets. They think blaming the financial crisis on "market fundamentalism" is getting a hold of the wrong end of the stick. Of course the opposition to some of their suggestions hasn't come from those who want closer regulations but those who claim the measures would interfere with the Holy Market. They mention only one - opposition to accounting for executive stock options, but the too big to fail and the subsidies for housing examples aren't the fault of those who rail against market fundamentalism.
capital_markets  EMH  efficiency  bubbles  financial_crisis  financial_regulation  liquidity  banking  property_rights  behavioral_economics  financial_economics  EF-add 
march 2014 by dunnettreader
Anwar Shaikh : On the role of reflexivity in economic analysis - Journal of Economic Methodology [Soros special issue] - Volume 20, Issue 4 - Taylor & Francis Online
pages 439-445 -- downloaded pdf to Note -- Soros' theory of reflexivity is meant to apply to a variety of social processes. In economics, it implies that many processes will be subject to “boom-bust” patterns in which expected outcomes deviate for a considerable time from the actual path, and that the actual path in turn deviates from the underlying fundamentals. This is in sharp contrast to the reigning notions in orthodox economics. The hypothesis of Rational Expectations (RE) requires that the views of all participants will converge to a “single set correct of expectations” and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) posits that actual outcomes deviate from equilibrium in a random manner save for occasional exogenous shocks. In this paper I show that Soros' argument is similar to the classical and Keynesian notions of equilibration as a turbulent process in which actual and expected variables gravitate around some fundamental value. But Soros makes the important further contribution of emphasizing that the fundamental value itself will generally be affected, but not fully determined, by (diverse) expectations and actual outcomes. I demonstrate that Soros' theory of reflexivity can be formalized and that the resulting system is stable in in the sense that expected and actual variables will gravitate around a possibly moving fundamental value. The paper ends with a discussion of an alternate economic paradigm in which the principle of reflexivity would be central.
article  intellectual_history  19thC  20thC  economic_theory  macroeconomics  economic_models  classical_economics  Keynesianism  equilibrium  fundamentals  capital_markets  EMH  rationality-economics  rational_expectations  information-markets  reflexivity  uncertainty  financial_economics  financial_system  philosophy_of_social_science  methodology  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2014 by dunnettreader
George Soros - Fallibility, reflexivity, and the human uncertainty principle - Journal of Economic Methodology [Soros special issue] - Volume 20, Issue 4 - Taylor & Francis Online
Lead article for special issue devoted to Soros and epistemology in social sciences more broadly compared with natural sciences and Popper's version of falsibility in scientific method -- He's making progress in formalizing his theory and putting it in context of other theorists - sees his fallibility and reflexivity combination as major factor in "Knightian uncertainty" - Downloaded pdf to Note
article  philosophy_of_social_science  philosophy_of_science  epistemology  scientific_method  falsification  deduction  Popper  Soros  uncertainty  economic_theory  economic_models  financial_economics  capital_markets  FX  EMH  rationality-economics  rational_expectations  complexity  equilibrium  reflexivity  ontology-social  free_will  financial_crisis  financial_system  fallibility  downloaded  EF-add  fundamentals  methodology  cognition  agency  intentionality 
january 2014 by dunnettreader

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