dunnettreader + financial_crisis   240

Europe's Political Economy: Reading Reviews of Varoufakis's Adults in the Room – ADAM TOOZE
Since it appeared in 2017 Yannis Varoufakis’s Adults in the Room has attracted a number of thoughtful reviews. Broadly, these fall into three camps. The camp to…
EU  EU_governance  Eurozone  financial_crisis  Greece-Troika  political_economy  books  reviews  from instapaper
february 2018 by dunnettreader
Lords of Misrule | Matt Stoller - The Baffler - Sept 2017
In 1937, future Supreme Court Justice Robert Jackson gave a toast at the New York State Bar Association on the civic responsibilities of the legal profession.…
Evernote  legal_culture  corporate_law  legal_system  US_politics  US_legal_system  US_government  white-collar_crime  criminal_justice  DOJ  fraud  financial_crisis  financial_regulation  SEC  antitrust  Obama_administration  accountability  from instapaper
september 2017 by dunnettreader
Understanding the Surge in Commercial Real Estate Lending - Economic Brief, August 2017 | Richmond FRB
HELEN FESSENDEN AND CATHERINE MUETHING
U.S. banks have increased their commercial real estate (CRE) lending significantly in the past five years. Economists and regulators note that some positive factors are driving this trend, but they also see potential risks. Analysts at the Richmond Fed have found that some banks could be especially vulnerable if economic conditions deteriorate. These include institutions that are in certain major urban areas and have high concentrations of CRE loans, rapid CRE loan growth, and heavy reliance on "noncore" (or illiquid) funding. But the analysts also conclude that, overall, banks' CRE exposures do not appear to be as elevated as they were before the Great Recession.
commercial_real_estate  liquidity  risk_management  credit_booms  leverage  mortgages  financial_regulation  real_estate  Great_Recession  business_cycles  financial_crisis  Evernote  banking 
august 2017 by dunnettreader
Reading: Barry Eichengreen (2011): Economic History and Economic Policy via Brad DeLong
Barry Eichengreen (2011): Economic History and Economic Policy - EHA Presidential Address 2011
As you read, formulate your answers to the following questions:
1. What does Eichengreen think are the uses of history, as shown in the use of history in trying to understand the macroeconomic crisis that began in 2008?
2.What does Eichengreen think are the abuses of history, as shown in the use of history in trying to understand the macroeconomic crisis that began in 2008?
3.What rules and approaches does Eichengreen arrive it for future people trying to use history better?
Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
monetary_policy  historiography-postWWII  QE  fiscal_policy  unemployment  historiography-19thC  economic_history  economic_policy  Keynesianism  speech  FX-rate_management  downloaded  central_banks  Great_Depression  historiography  FX  austerity  financial_system  financial_crisis  financial_regulation  Minsky  historiography-20thC  FX-misalignment  Great_Recession  inflation 
january 2017 by dunnettreader
The Leverage Ratchet Effect by Anat R. Admati, Peter M. DeMarzo, Martin F. Hellwig, Paul C. Pfleiderer (October 2016) :: SSRN
Anat R. Admati, Stanford Graduate School of Business; Peter M. DeMarzo. Stanford Graduate School of Business, NBER; Martin F. Hellwig, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, U. of Bonn - Dep of Econ; Paul C. Pfleiderer, Stanford Graduate School of Business -- Max Planck - Collective Goods Bonn 2013/13
credit_booms  recapitalization  corporate_finance  debt-overhang  debt-seniority  leverage  banking  financial_crisis  debt-restructuring  downloaded  capital_markets  financial_regulation  equity-corporate  paper  debt 
november 2016 by dunnettreader
Joseph Joyce - Capital Flows and Financial Crises | Capital Ebbs and Flows - Oct 2016
Prof at Wellesley. The impact of capital flows on the incidence of financial crises has been recognized since the Asian crisis of 1997-98. Inflows before the crisis contributed to…
Pretty much my position re Chile's controls in 1990s - FDI good, portfolio vulnerable to hot money, bad, especially foreign-denominated debt, but also bank deposits attracted by interest rates but easily reversed. But they're finding that it's not just the flows that are destabilizing -- exchange rate appreciation comes with foreign capital buying debt assets as well. So much for developing local bond markets? -- See links to papers, tracking not just macro level but B-schools looking at firm-level incentives, who goes in for leverage, etc.
economic_history  financial_crisis  financialization  emerging_markets  capital_flows  FDI  capital_markets  sovereign_debt  FX-misalignment  FX  economic_policy  from instapaper
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Psychologists at the Gate: Review of Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow (2012) | Andrei Shleifer - J of Econ Lit
Shleifer, Andrei. 2012. “Psychologists at the Gate: Review of Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow.” Journal of Economic Literature 50 (4): 1080-1091. -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
investors  cognition  neuroscience  reviews  books  credit  cognitive_bias  cognitive_science  financial_regulation  Minsky  risk_assessment  asset_prices  bubbles  creditors  downloaded  financial_system  credit_booms  behavioral_economics  financial_crisis 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Bordalo, Gennaioli and Shleifer - Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles - WP June 2016 version
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. Working Paper. “Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles”.Abstract
We present a model of credit cycles arising from diagnostic expectations – a belief formation mechanism based on Kahneman and Tversky’s (1972) representativeness heuristic. In this formulation, when forming their beliefs agents overweight future outcomes that have become more likely in light of incoming data. The model reconciles extrapolation and neglect of risk in a unified framework. Diagnostic expectations are forward looking, and as such are immune to the Lucas critique and nest rational expectations as a special case. In our model of credit cycles, credit spreads are excessively volatile, over-react to news, and are subject to predictable reversals. These dynamics can account for several features of credit cycles and macroeconomic volatility
PDF, revised June 2016 -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
financial_system  bubbles  creditors  investors  leverage  credit_crunch  paper  capital_markets  debt_crisis  consumer_demand  debt-overhang  banking  reallocation-labor  demand-side  credit_booms  downloaded  debt-restructuring  reallocation-capital  financial_crisis  investment 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Gennaioli, Nicola, Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny - Neglected Risks: The Psychology of Financial Crises (2015) | Andrei Shleifer - pre-pub pdf
We model a financial market in which investor beliefs are shaped by representativeness. Investors overreact to a series of good news, because such a series is representative of a good state. A few bad news do not change investor minds because the good state is still representative, but enough bad news leads to a radical change in beliefs and a financial crisis. The model generates debt over-issuance, "this time is different" beliefs, neglect of tail risks, under- and over-reaction to information, boom-bust cycles, and excess volatility of prices in a unified psychological model of expectations.
Citation
Gennaioli, Nicola, Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny. 2015. "Neglected Risks: The Psychology of Financial Crises." American Economic Review, 105(5): 310-14.
DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20151091
Downloaded pre-pub pdf via iPhone to DBOX
financial_crisis  investors  Minsky  investment  credit_booms  financial_system  downloaded  article  capital_markets 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Iryna Stewen & Mathias Hoffmann - Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, US house prices & the long shadow of banking deregulation (2015 wp)
Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy with number 112834. -- Abstract -- We explore empirically how capital inflows into the US and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the run-up (and subsequent decline) in US housing prices over the period 1990-2010. To obtain an ex ante measure of financial liberalization, we focus on the history of interstate-banking deregulation during the 1980s, i.e. prior to the large net capital inflows into the US from China and other emerging economies. Our results suggest a long shadow of deregulation: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to capital inflows. We provide evidence that global imbalances were a major positive funding shock for US wide banks: different from local banks, these banks held a geographically diversified portfolio of mortgages which allowed them to tap the global demand for safe assets by issuing private-label safe assets backed by the country-wide US housing market. This, in turn, allowed them to expand mortgage lending and lower interest rates, driving up housing prices. -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
banking  financial_crisis  deregulation  US_economy  downloaded  financial_regulation  global_imbalance  capital_markets  post-Cold_War  financial_system  interstate_banking  savings  house_prices  securitization  financial_innovation  interest_rates  mortgages  international_finance  capital_flows  community_banks  paper  21stC  economic_history  competition-interstate  NBFI 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Jean Tirole - Financial Crises, Liquidity, and the International Monetary System (eBook, Paperback 2016 and Hardcover 2002) - Princeton University Press
Written post Asia crisis but eternally applicable - he was focusing on capital flows when it still was heterodoxy -- Once upon a time, economists saw capital account liberalization--the free and unrestricted flow of capital in and out of countries--as unambiguously good. Good for debtor states, good for the world economy. No longer. Spectacular banking and currency crises in recent decades have shattered the consensus. In this remarkably clear and pithy volume, one of Europe's leading economists examines these crises, the reforms being undertaken to prevent them, and how global financial institutions might be restructured to this end. Jean Tirole first analyzes the current views on the crises and on the reform of the international financial architecture. Reform proposals often treat the symptoms rather than the fundamentals, he argues, and sometimes fail to reconcile the objectives of setting effective financing conditions while ensuring that a country "owns" its reform program. A proper identification of market failures is essential to reformulating the mission of an institution such as the IMF, he emphasizes. Next he adapts the basic principles of corporate governance, liquidity provision, and risk management of corporations to the particulars of country borrowing. Building on a "dual- and common-agency perspective," he revisits commonly advocated policies and considers how multilateral organizations can help debtor countries reap enhanced benefits while liberalizing their capital accounts.

Based on the Paolo Baffi Lecture the author delivered at the Bank of Italy, this refreshingly accessible book is teeming with rich insights that researchers, policymakers, and students at all levels will find indispensable. -- downloaded excerpt to Tab S2
books  kindle-available  downloaded  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  banking  capital_adequacy  contagion  sovereign_debt  international_monetary_system  international_finance  international_political_economy  IMF  emerging_markets  globalization  global_governance  global_system 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Dewatripont, M. and Rochet, J., Tirole, J. - Balancing the Banks: Global Lessons from the Financial Crisis (orig 2010) - Princeton University Press
The financial crisis that began in 2007 in the United States swept the world, producing substantial bank failures and forcing unprecedented state aid for the crippled global financial system. Bringing together three leading financial economists to provide an international perspective, Balancing the Banks draws critical lessons from the causes of the crisis and proposes important regulatory reforms, including sound guidelines for the ways in which distressed banks might be dealt with in the future.

While some recent policy moves go in the right direction, others, the book argues, are not sufficient to prevent another crisis. The authors show the necessity of an adaptive prudential regulatory system that can better address financial innovation. Stressing the numerous and complex challenges faced by politicians, finance professionals, and regulators, and calling for reinforced international coordination (for example, in the treatment of distressed banks), the authors put forth a number of principles to deal with issues regarding the economic incentives of financial institutions, the impact of economic shocks, and the role of political constraints.

Offering a global perspective, Balancing the Banks should be read by anyone concerned with solving the current crisis and preventing another such calamity in the future.
Downloaded Chapters 1 & 2 to Tab S2
books  kindle-available  downloaded  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  banking  bank_runs  shadow_banking  capital_markets  capital_flows  capital_adequacy  liquidity  risk_management  incentives-distortions  incentives  international_finance  global_governance  regulatory_arbitrage  regulatory_avoidance  regulation-costs  regulation-enforcement  regulation-harmonization  regulation 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Stitching together the global financial safety net | Bank Underground - July 2016
https://bankunderground.co.uk/2016/07/22/stitching-together-the-global-financial-safety-net/ - Very useful sketch of the various mechanisms, especially central bank swaps, that were put in place during the early part of the financial crisis that kept liquidity shocks from turning into a global crash - additional mechanism designed since then, with lots of attention on regional arrangements, and a boost to the IMF's capital. Still concerns re holes in the safety net - especially if there's contagion that's region-wide - and concerns that developing economies may not have access to sufficient resources to manage sudden stops. .
Instapaper  global_economy  international_monetary_system  international_finance  financial_crisis  capital_flows  central_banks  IMF  emerging_markets  contagion  from instapaper
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Thomas Palley » Blog Archive » Why ZLB Economics and Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) are Wrong: A Theoretical Critique
NIRP is quickly becoming a consensus policy within the economics establishment. This paper argues that consensus is dangerously wrong, resting on flawed theory and flawed policy assessment. Regarding theory, NIRP draws on fallacious pre-Keynesian economic logic that asserts interest rate adjustment can ensure full employment. That pre-Keynesian logic has been augmented by ZLB economics which claims times of severe demand shortage may require negative interest rates, which policy must deliver since the market cannot. Regarding policy assessment, NIRP turns a blind eye to the possibility that negative interest rates may reduce AD, cause financial fragility, create a macroeconomics of whiplash owing to contradictions between policy today and tomorrow, promote currency wars that undermine the international economy, and foster a political economy that spawns toxic politics. Worst of all, NIRP maintains and encourages the flawed model of growth, based on debt and asset price inflation, which has already done such harm. Downloaded to Tab S2
paper  downloaded  macroeconomics  monetary_policy  interest_rates  central_banks  demand-side  zero-bound  FX-rate_management  economic_growth  economic_theory  financial_crisis  capital_flows  asset_prices  leverage  debt-overhang 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Atif Mian, Amir Sufi - Who Bears the Cost of Recessions? The Role of House Prices and Household Debt | NBER -:May 2016
NBER Working Paper No. 22256 -- This chapter reviews empirical estimates of differential income and consumption growth across individuals during recessions. Most existing studies examine the variation in income and consumption growth across individuals by sorting on ex ante or contemporaneous income or consumption levels. We build on this literature by showing that differential shocks to household net worth coming from elevated household debt and the collapse in house prices play an underappreciated role. Using zip codes in the United States as the unit of analysis, we show that the decline in numerous measures of consumption during the Great Recession was much larger in zip codes that experienced a sharp decline in housing net worth. In the years prior to the recession, these same zip codes saw high house price growth, a substantial expansion of debt by homeowners, and high consumption growth. We discuss what models seem most consistent with this striking pattern in the data, and we highlight the increasing body of macroeconomic evidence on the link between household debt and business cycles. Our main conclusion is that housing and household debt should play a larger role in models exploring the importance of household heterogeneity on macroeconomic outcomes and policies.
paper  paywall  NBER  economic_history  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  debt_crisis  debt-overhang  business_cycles  house_prices  mortgages  consumer_demand  US_economy 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
FRB: FEDS Notes: Government-Backed Mortgage Insurance Promoted a Speedier Recovery from the Great Recession
URL is for Fed Note that summarizes one part of the larger Paper - April 2016 -- Government-Backed Mortgage Insurance, Financial Crisis, and the Recovery from the Great Recession (PDF) -- Wayne Passmore and Shane M. Sherlund -- Abstract: The Great Recession provides an opportunity to test the proposition that government mortgage insurance programs mitigated the effects of the financial crisis and enhanced the economic recovery from 2009 to 2014. We find that government-sponsored mortgage insurance programs have been responsible for better economic outcomes in counties that participated heavily in these programs. In particular, counties with high levels of participation from government-sponsored enterprises and the Federal Housing Authority had relatively lower unemployment rates, higher home sales, higher home prices, lower mortgage delinquency rates, and less foreclosure activity, both in 2009 (soon after the peak of the financial crisis) and in 2014 (six years after the crisis) than did counties with lower levels of participation. The persistence of better outcomes in counties with heavy participation in federal government programs is consistent with a view that lower government liquidity premiums , lower government credit-risk premiums, and looser government mortgage-underwriting standards yield higher private-sector economic activity after a financial crisis. - Keywords: Financial crisis, Great Recssion, government policy, mortgages - paper downloaded to Tab S2
paper  Fed  Great_Recession  Great_Depression  housing  mortgages  financial_crisis  GSEs  securitization  unemployment  house_prices  countercyclical_policy  downloaded 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
J Oldfather, S Gissler & D Ruffino - Bank Complexity: Is Size Everything? | FRB: FEDS Notes: July 2016
Jeremy Oldfather, Stefan Gissler, and Doriana Ruffino - Can we measure the complexity of large banks by comparing their balance sheets? The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) acknowledges that we cannot, but it stops short of defining alternative non-balance-sheet measures.1 In this note, we propose a network-based analysis to study the structural complexity of banks through publicly available data on the structure of large U.S. banks. We show that our analysis is also informative more broadly for tailoring bank resolution plans. - interesting use of network graphs - downloaded to Tab S2
paper  Fed  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_adequacy  banking-universal  bank_holding_cos  networks-architecture  networks-financial  risk_management  complexity  downloaded 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Bond Economics: review, "Capitalism" - By Anwar Shaikh - April 2016
Capitalism: Competition, Conflict, Crises is a comprehensive overview of economics published by the noted heterodox economist Anwar Shaikh. This article is…
Instapaper  books  reviews  economic_theory  heterodox_economics  macroeconomics  capitalism  business_cycles  competition  capitalism-systemic_crisis  financial_crisis  emergence  econophysics  economic_models  from instapaper
may 2016 by dunnettreader
Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz - Liquidity Runs - April 2016
"We do not want to face Bear." Email from a Goldman employee to a hedge fund manager, March 11, 2008 ( Financial Crisis Inquiry Report , p. 288) Despite mixed…
Instapaper  financial_system  financial_crisis  liquidity  insolvency  financial_system-government_back-stop  contagion  clearing_&_settlement  risk_assessment  risk_management  risk-systemic  from instapaper
may 2016 by dunnettreader
Quaker bankers: building trust on the basis of sincerity, reciprocity and charity | Magic, Maths & Money - Feb 2016
This post follows discussions of the norms sincerity, reciprocity and charity in financial markets. It suggests that the success of Quaker finance, that funded… Tracks the importance of Quaker-owned banks to the development of UK financial system - the number of big-name banking families with Quaker founders is striking. Their personalized methods of working on reputation (theirs and their borrowers) based on shared standards of probity and transparency, disciplined by membership in the Quaker community - allowed them to not only grow in the loan business, but become big in the bills market. The Quaker method of collecting views re appropriate moral life practices, which were documented and circulated among the members - and set mutual expectations for ethical practices, including areas like bookkeeping and full disclosure. The Quaker firms were central to the system of country banks, capable of providing liquidity to halt bank runs, wind down problem institutions etc. Their bills business didn't survive the switch to the Bank of England becoming lender of last resort in the 1844 crisis. And their information advantages don't seem to have remained a competitive advantage as it had been in the pre Napoleonic_Wars era.
Instapaper  economic_history  financial_innovation  banking  17thC  18thC  19thC  British_history  Quakers  dissenters  Industrial_Revolution  ethics  norms  norms-business  accounting  accountability  reputation  disclosure  information-intermediaries  information-markets  money_market  Bank_of_England  country_banks  financial_crisis  bank_runs  lender-of-last-resort  from instapaper
february 2016 by dunnettreader
Avinash Persaud - A blueprint for overcoming systemic risk | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 20 November 2015
As the recent Financial Stability Board decision on loss-absorbing capital shows, repairing the financial system is still a work in progress. This column reviews the author’s new book on the matter, Reinventing Financial Regulation: A Blueprint for Overcoming Systemic Risks. It argues that financial institutions should be required to put up capital against the mismatch between each type of risk they hold and their natural capacity to hold that type of risk. -- downloaded as pdf to Note
books  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  risk-systemic  risk_shifting  risk_management  risk_assessment  leverage  hedging  capital_adequacy  shadow_banking  liquidity  risk_premiums  firesales  banking  banking-universal  credit_ratings  balance_sheet  international_finance  maturity_transformation  downloaded 
november 2015 by dunnettreader
M Funke, M Schularick, C Trebesch - The political aftermath of financial crises: Going to extremes | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal 21 November 2015
Recent events in Europe provide ample evidence that the political aftershocks of financial crises can be severe. This column uses a new dataset that covers elections and crises in 20 advanced economies going back to 1870 to systematically study the political aftermath of financial crises. Far-right parties are the biggest beneficiaries of financial crises, while the fractionalisation of parliaments complicates post-crisis governance. These effects are not observed following normal recessions or severe non-financial macroeconomic shocks.
economic_history  19thC  20thC  21stC  post-WWII  financial_crisis  political_culture  democracy  right-wing  extremism  governance 
november 2015 by dunnettreader
The Tri-Party Repo Market Like You Have Never Seen It Before | Liberty Street Economics - October 2015
They've got a database analytical tool that, like FRED, allows lots of slicing and dicing at all sorts of levels of details - history doesn't extend very far back since until the last 2 decades the repo market was tiny and dominated by a few specialist firms, not the brand-name players
Instapaper  financial_economics  databases  money_market  credit_booms  credit_crunch  bubbles  financial_crisis  shadow_banking  markets-structure  liquidity  bank_runs  from instapaper
october 2015 by dunnettreader
Mike Koczal - Four Ways of Looking at a TBTF Subsidy: A Reply to Dean Baker - October 2015
The discussion over a Too Big To Fail (TBTF) subsidy, where the largest banks are able to borrow more cheaply as the result of potential future bailouts, is…
Instapaper  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  banking  TBTF  Dodd-Frank  bailouts  US_politics  from instapaper
october 2015 by dunnettreader
Guillaume Vuillemey, review - Nicolas Buat, John Law: La dette ou comment s’en débarrasser - La Vie des idées - 8 juillet
Recensé : Nicolas Buat, John Law – La dette ou comment s’en débarrasser, Les Belles Lettres, Collection « Penseurs de la liberté », 2015, 272 p., 21 €.
-- Mots-clés : dette | monnaie | banques | XVIIIe siècle -- John Law a laissé son nom associé à un scandale financier considérable. Nicolas Buat retrace sa vie aventureuse, et ses projets ambitieux pour dynamiser l’économie et éteindre la dette de la France. -- Que l’on cherche à tirer de l’histoire de grands enseignements, ou que l’on se satisfasse d’y contempler une galerie de portraits et de tableaux sans conséquences pour notre temps, on ne peut demeurer indifférent au personnage de John Law. Le récent ouvrage biographique de Nicolas Buat – conservateur en chef des Archives de Paris – nous invite à le redécouvrir. S’il s’inscrit dans une série déjà relativement longue de travaux consacrés à Law (dont le plus connu est certainement le livre d’Edgar Faure, La Banqueroute de Law, paru en 1977), son grand mérite est de nous plonger dans l’atmosphère bouillonnante de la Régence, sans perdre le lecteur dans de trop pointilleuses descriptions du « Système » mis en place entre 1716 et 1720. -- downloaded pdf to Note
books  reviews  French_language  political_economy  18thC  biography  Law_John  French_government  French_politics  money  monetary_theory  monetary_policy  sovereign_debt  default  Mississippi_Company  bubbles  banking  currency  investors  Regency-France  financial_system  financial_crisis  capital_markets  financial_innovation  downloaded 
october 2015 by dunnettreader
Aida Caldera, Mikkel Hermansen, Oliver Röhn - Economic resilience: A new set of vulnerability indicators | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 19 September 2015
The Global Crisis and its high costs have revived interest in early warning indicators of economic risks. This column presents a new set of indicators to detect vulnerabilities and assess country-specific risks of suffering a crisis. The empirical evidence confirms the usefulness of the vulnerability indicators in warning of severe recessions and crises in OECD countries. But indicators are no silver bullet and should be complemented with other monitoring tools, including expert judgement. -- paper giving overview of OECD Program working on indicators of upcoming crises and macro policies that could be adopted to head off crises -- stress on linkages across 6 clusters of economic activity and potential vulnerabilities -- in tuning indicators, looking at trade off between false positives and insufficient strength of negative signals, and the costs of responding to false positives vs failing to respond to warning flags -- also trying to see how, via linkages, prudential measures in one area might reduce vulnerabilities in other areas, so not left with only the blunt instrument of monetary policy
paper  OECD  OECD_economies  BRICS  business_cycles  recessions  macroeconomic_policy  macroeconomics  macroprudential_policies  financial_system  financial_crisis  credit_booms  fiscal_policy  FX-misalignment  capital_flows  housing  FDI  forecasts 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Economic resilience - OECD Program with Working Papers and data sets on vulnerability ibdicators
Reducing the vulnerability of economies to crises and strengthening their capacity to absorb and overcome severe shocks while supporting strong growth -- that is strengthening economic resilience -- is a key policy priority. The Economic Resilience work stream aims at providing a systematic and holistic framework, including a set of indicators, to help governments identify vulnerabilities to shocks and crises early on so as to reduce their likelihood and economic cost. The findings arising from this work stream will be used to strengthen macro and structural policies surveillance.
website  OECD  business_cycles  forecasts  economic_indicators  financial_system  recessions  financial_crisis  macroeconomics  macroprudential_policies  macroprudential_regulation  housing  credit_booms 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Charles A.E. Goodhart, Enrico Perotti - Containing maturity mismatch | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 10 September 2015
In the last century, real estate funding by banks grew steadily. This column argues that the unprecedented expansion of banking in mortgage lending resulted in a high degree of maturity mismatch. The solution to this problem should focus on greater maturity matching, and not using insured deposits. One avenue to do so is by securitising mortgages with little maturity transformation. Another is to create intermediaries providing mortgage loans where the lender shares in the appreciation, while assuming some risk against the occasional bust. -- downloaded as pdf to Note
paper  banking  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_markets  risk-systemic  markets-structure  real_estate  mortgages  liquidity  money_market  deposit_insurance  disintermediation  maturity_transformation  securitization  institutional_investors  bubbles  Minsky  downloaded 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Richard Thayer - Keynes's 'beauty contest' | The University of Chicago Booth School of Business - Sept 2015
Many other economists who supported the efficient-markets hypothesis (EMH) have been surprised by recent history, but there is one man who would not have been “shocked”: John Maynard Keynes.
capital_markets  Keynes  speculative_finance  asset_prices  financial_crisis  financial_regulation  EMH  behavioral_economics  bubbles  Instapaper  from instapaper
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Ben S. Bernanke, review - Charles P. Kindleberger, Jean-Pierre Laffargue eds, Financial Crises: Theory, History, and Policy | JSTOR Journal of Economic Literature (1983)
Journal of Economic Literature 21, No. 2 (Jun., 1983), pp. 574-575 -- delicious in retrospect -- he dings Minsky for inadequate formalism and thinks respondents showed data that punched holes in his approach,. He softly gives the nod to Solow’s defense of Lender of Last Resort as against Friedman and Harry Johnson that all you need is well run monetary policy. Though Solow also stressed the need to guard against people exploiting the implicit guarantee. Ben should have drawn a few stronger lessons before the financial crisis produced its Minsky moment, in part because Greenspan thought the market would provide the discipline Solow saw as necessary, and Ben became LLR for the globe. -- downloaded pdf to Note
books  reviews  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  Minsky  Kindleberger  Solow  Friedman_Milton  Bernanke  central_banks  credit_booms  business_cycles  lender-of-last-resort  bubbles  financial_system-government_back-stop  downloaded 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Symposium: The Bailouts of 2007-2009 (Spring 2015) | AEAweb: Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol. 29 No.2
Austan D. Goolsbee and Alan B. Krueger - A Retrospective Look at Rescuing and Restructuring General Motors and Chrysler (pp. 3-24) **--** W. Scott Frame, Andreas Fuster, Joseph Tracy and James Vickery - The Rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (pp. 25-52) **--** Charles W. Calomiris and Urooj Khan - An Assessment of TARP Assistance to Financial Institutions (pp. 53-80) **--** Robert McDonald and Anna Paulson - AIG in Hindsight (pp. 81-106) **--** Phillip Swagel - Legal, Political, and Institutional Constraints on the Financial Crisis Policy Response (pp. 107-22) -- available online, didn't download
article  journals-academic  financial_system  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  bailouts  bail-ins  capitalism-systemic_crisis  capital_markets  banking  bank_runs  shadow_banking  NBFI  securitization  credit_booms  credit_ratings  incentives-distortions  public-private_partnerships  Fannie_Mae  housing  leverage  financial_system-government_back-stop  financial_innovation  firesales  liquidity  asset_prices  Fed  lender-of-last-resort  regulatory_capture  regulatory_avoidance  credit_crunch  bankruptcy  government_agencies  government_finance  global_economy  global_governance  international_finance  international_monetary_system  international_crisis  property_rights  derivatives  clearing_&_settlement  GSEs  bubbles 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, Alan Taylor - Leveraged bubbles | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 01 September 2015
The risk that asset price bubbles pose for financial stability is still not clear. Drawing on 140 years of data, this column argues that leverage is the critical determinant of crisis damage. When fuelled by credit booms, asset price bubbles are associated with high financial crisis risk; upon collapse, they coincide with weaker growth and slower recoveries. Highly leveraged housing bubbles are the worst case of all. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  bubbles  asset_prices  leverage  credit_booms  housing  financial_crisis  downloaded 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Akerlof, G.A. and Shiller, R.J.: Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception. (eBook and Hardcover)
Phishing for Phools therefore strikes a radically new direction in economics, based on the intuitive idea that markets both give and take away. Akerlof and Shiller bring this idea to life through dozens of stories that show how phishing affects everyone, in almost every walk of life. We spend our money up to the limit, and then worry about how to pay the next month’s bills. The financial system soars, then crashes. We are attracted, more than we know, by advertising. Our political system is distorted by money. We pay too much for gym memberships, cars, houses, and credit cards. Drug companies ingeniously market pharmaceuticals that do us little good, and sometimes are downright dangerous. Phishing for Phools explores the central role of manipulation and deception in fascinating detail in each of these areas and many more. It thereby explains a paradox: why, at a time when we are better off than ever before in history, all too many of us are leading lives of quiet desperation. At the same time, the book tells stories of individuals who have stood against economic trickery—and how it can be reduced through greater knowledge, reform, and regulation. -- Intro downloaded pdf to Note
financial_crisis  kindle-available  behavioral_economics  competition  downloaded  market_manipulation  markets-psychology  financial_system  pharma  accountability  books  politics-and-money  marketing  information-asymmetric  markets-dependence_on_government  disclosure  markets-failure  financial_innovation  financial_regulation 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz - Bond market liquidity: should we be worried? — Money, Banking and Financial Markets
Our bottom line is this: resilience of intermediaries and resilience of markets are mutually reinforcing. With more resilient institutions, someone is more likely to stand ready to make a market in bonds – both Treasuries and corporates – so long as the rewards are adequate. Since the less liquid a market is, the higher the return to market making will be, the more likely it is that someone will step up to trade when price moves are large. Put another way, better regulation has removed the public subsidy to trading activity that banks and others were able to capture prior to the crisis, so making markets has become more expensive and prices may have to move more than before to attract stabilizing traders. But during those periods when liquidity is particularly valuable, the rewards should exceed these higher capital and liquidity costs. We worry less, not more, because enhanced capital and liquidity requirements are making intermediaries more resilient. Tags: Corporate bonds, Bond market, Liquidity, U.S. Treasury bonds, High-frequency trading, Contagion, Systemic risk -- really good on corporate bonds and links to recent studies on the Treasury market, especially after the flash crash in October 2014 -- downloaded pdf to Note
financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_markets  risk-systemic  markets-structure  HFT  liquidity  capital_adequacy  banking  broker-dealers  intermediation  corporate_finance  Dodd-Frank  downloaded 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Maurice Obstfeld - Understanding past and future financial crises | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal
Summary of their long paper, see bookmark -- Reposted 21 July 2015 - What explains the different effects of the crisis around the world? This column compares the 2007–09 crisis to earlier episodes of banking, currency, and sovereign debt distress and identifies domestic-credit booms and real currency appreciation as the most significant predictors of future crises, in both advanced and emerging economies. It argues these results could help policymakers determine the need for corrective action before crises hit. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  economic_history  20thC  financial_crisis  emerging_markets  capital_flows  credit_booms  leverage  business_cycles  FX-rate_management  FX  Great_Recession  bibliography  links  downloaded 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Maurice Obstfeld - Stories of the 20thC for the 21stC | CEPR via Ideas.repec.org
A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century’s first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises, regardless of whether a country is emerging or advanced. For emerging economies, however, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis. -- enormous lit review bibliography, see references links on Ideas page -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  economic_history  20thC  financial_crisis  emerging_markets  capital_flows  credit_booms  leverage  business_cycles  FX-rate_management  FX  Great_Recession  bibliography  links  downloaded 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Thomas Palley » The US Economy: Explaining Stagnation and Why It Will Persist - August 2015
The US Economy: Explaining Stagnation and Why It Will Persist
This paper examines the major competing interpretations of the economic crisis in the US and explains the rebound of neoliberal orthodoxy. It shows how US policymakers acted to stabilize and save the economy, but failed to change the underlying neoliberal economic policy model. That failure explains the emergence of stagnation, which is likely to endure. Current economic conditions in the US smack of the mid-1990s. The 1990s expansion proved unsustainable and so will the current modest expansion. However, this time it is unlikely to be followed by financial crisis because of the balance sheet cleaning that took place during the last crisis. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  US_economy  stagnation  macroeconomics  financial_crisis  Great_Recession  neoliberalism  downloaded 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol - La zone euro est-elle viable? Une perspective historique - La Vie des idées - 20 mai 2014
La crise de la zone euro a révélé les faiblesses constitutives de la monnaie unique ; mais les débats portant sur sa viabilité se limitent trop souvent à une vision purement économique de la zone euro. L’histoire complexe de la création de l’euro éclaire les enjeux financiers et politiques internationaux de l’unification monétaire. -- in many ways it's the same-old, same-old -- a group of countries with intense economic interaction that gets whip-sawed by exchange rates in a constantly evolving world that's increasingly globalized, especially capital movements -- under a series of arrangements from Bretton Woods onwards, they've been trying to manage or mitigate the problem, but they never solve it -- he repeatedly notes that the entire EC budget isn't more than 1% of the aggregate GNP of the member states -- useful aide-mémoire for each step in the evolution of the EU and European money arrangements paralled with each modification of the international monetary system -- though he notes repeatedly that finance is extremely mobile, not only within the Eurozone or within the EU but globally, and that labor and fiscal adjustments are extremely immobile within the Eurozone by comparison, he doesn't draw the obvious link of these severe mismatches to the repeated problems the EU has faced re money -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  economic_history  political_history  European_integration  post-WWII  post-Cold_War  international_monetary_system  Bretton_Woods  EU_governance  FX  FX-rate_management  FX-misalignment  Eurozone  Eurocrsis  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  sovereign_debt  Europe-federalism  EU-regulation  cross-border  Labor_markets  banking  ECB  EU-elections  political_participation  EU-Parliament  EU-parties  monetary_union  monetary_theory  international_economics  capital_flows  capital_controls  EU-fiscal_policy  convergence-econimic  fiscal_policy  Maastricht  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Clément Fontan - La BCE et la crise du capitalisme en Europe - La Vie des idées - 24 février 2015
Selon Clément Fontan, la Banque centrale européenne a outrepassé ses prérogatives et a, sans contrôle démocratique, traité de manière trop différenciée l’aide qu’elle apporte aux États et celle qu’elle alloue au système financier. Mots-clés : Europe | banque centrale | capitalisme | Grèce | euro -- quite helpful for details of how the various powers, decision-making processes and authority in the EU, the Eurozone, the member states, and the ECB interact -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  EU_governance  Eurozone  ECB  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  capitalism-systemic_crisis  finance_capital  financialization  Greece-Troika  Eurocrsis  QE  bank_runs  payments_systems  bailouts  Germany-Eurozone  France  accountability  democracy_deficit  austerity  Maastricht  sovereign_debt  sovereignty  Europe-federalism  European_integration  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Financial Market Trends - OECD Journal - Home page | OECD
‌The articles in Financial Market Trends focus on trends and prospects in the international and major domestic financial markets and structural issues and developments in financial markets and the financial sector. This includes financial market regulation, bond markets and public debt management, insurance and private pensions, as well as financial statistics. -- links to the contents of each issue of the journal
journal  website  paper  financial_system  global_economy  global_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_markets  risk-systemic  international_finance  banking  NBFI  insurance  markets-structure  risk_assessment  risk_management  sovereign_debt  corporate_finance  corporate_governance  institutional_investors  pensions  consumer_protection  equity-corporate  equity_markets  debt  debt-overhang  leverage  capital_flows  capital_adequacy  financial_economics  financial_innovation  financial_system-government_back-stop  bailouts  too-big-to-fail  cross-border  regulation-harmonization  regulation-costs  statistics 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Christian Thimann - The economics of insurance and its borders with general finance | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal 07/17/2015
What is insurance and where does insurance end?’, is a pressing question in international finance as global regulators are still pondering whether there can be systemic risk in insurance. This column argues that the challenge faced by regulators partly stems from terminological confusion between insurance activities and more general financial activities. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  financial_system  insurance  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_markets  risk-systemic  international_finance  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Thomas Palley - Inequality, the Financial Crisis and Stagnation: Competing Stories and Why They Matter - June 15 2015
This paper examines several mainstream explanations of the financial crisis and stagnation and the role they attribute to income inequality. Those explanations are contrasted with a structural Keynesian explanation. The role of income inequality differs substantially, giving rise to different policy recommendations. That highlights the critical importance of economic theory. Theory shapes the way we understand the world, thereby shaping how we respond to it. The theoretical narrative we adopt therefore implicitly shapes policy. That observation applies forcefully to the issue of income inequality, the financial crisis and stagnation, making it critical we get the story right.
paper  economic_theory  macroeconomics  stagnation  economic_growth  Keynesianism  economic_sociology  inequality  financial_system  financial_crisis  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Erlend W Nier, Tahsin Saadi Sedik - Capital flows, emerging markets and the global financial cycle | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 04 January 2015
Large and volatile capital flows into emerging economies since the Global Financial Crisis have re-invigorated efforts to unearth the determinants of these flows. This column investigates the interplay between global risk aversion (captured by the VIX) and countries’ characteristics. The authors also explore what policies countries should employ to protect themselves against the volatility of capital flows. The findings indicate that capital flows to emerging markets cannot be controlled without incurring substantial costs.
paper  emerging_markets  capital_flows  capital_markets  global_system  international_finance  global_financial_cycle  financial_crisis  Great_Recession  capital_controls  volatility  contagion  risk-systemic 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Anton Korinek - Going against the flow: Dealing with capital flows to emerging markets | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 22 December 2010
Capital flows to emerging markets are controversial territory. This column argues that they create externalities that make the recipient economies more vulnerable to financial fragility and crises. It adds that policymakers can make their economies better off by regulating and discouraging the use of risky forms of external finance – in particular short-term dollar-denominated debts
paper  emerging_markets  capital_flows  capital_markets  global_system  international_finance  global_financial_cycle  financial_crisis  Great_Recession  capital_controls  volatility  contagion  risk-systemic  risk-mitigation 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Stephen Kinsella, Hamid Raza, Gylfi Zoega - Iceland and Ireland: Currency is not destiny | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 04 July 2015
Iceland and Ireland were both rocked by the fallout of the Global Crisis. This column argues that differences in currency arrangements affected the mechanisms of the boom and the collapse. Iceland’s banks collapsed because they did not have a lender of last resort in euros. Ireland did. But Iceland’s collapse and ensuing capital controls shifted the burden of debt restructuring onto foreign creditors to a much greater extent than in Ireland. -- actually currency is destiny, since Ireland was forced to bear the costs of bailing out private creditors due to membership in Eurozone
paper  financial_crisis  Eurocrsis  Eurozone  sovereign_debt  default  creditors  bailouts  austerity  capital_controls  EU_governance  risk_shifting 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Jakob de Haan, Dirk Schoenmaker -Teaching finance after the crisis | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 06 July 2015
The financial crisis brought with it many challenges, both to prevailing disciplinary tenets, and for research and policy more generally. This column outlines the lessons that can be drawn from the financial crisis – issues like financial market failures, macro-prudential policy, structural changes of the financial system, and the European banking union. It argues for the inclusion of these topics in curricula for the next generation of finance students
financial_economics  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_markets  EMH  information-markets  macroprudential_policies  cross-border  European_integration  ECB  banking  business_cycles  Minsky 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Sven Langedijk,et al - The corporate debt bias and the cost of banking crises | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 04 July 2015
Sven Langedijk, Gaëtan Nicodème, Andrea Pagano, Alessandro Rossi --Strengthening the banking sector through higher equity capital is one of the key elements of policies aiming to reduce the probability of crises. However, the ‘corporate debt bias’ – the tendency of corporate tax systems to favour debt over equity – is at odds with this objective. This column estimates the benefits for financial stability of eliminating the corporate debt bias. Fully removing the debt bias is estimated to reduce potential public finance losses by between 25 and 55% for the six large EU countries sampled.
paper  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  banking  capital_adequacy  debt  corporate_finance  leverage  tax_policy  interest_rates  equity-corporate  EU 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Nicolas Delalande , review - Wolfgang Streeck, Du temps acheté - La Vie des idées - May 2015
Wolfgang Streeck, Du temps acheté. La crise sans cesse ajournée du capitalisme démocratique, Paris, Gallimard, traduit de l’allemand par Frédéric Joly, 2014 [2013], 400 p., 29 €. -- Ce que la crise a révélé, dit W. Streeck, c’est le divorce consommé de longue main entre la démocratie et le capitalisme. Ce dernier s’est tourné depuis les années 1980 vers les marchés financiers et l’endettement n’a fait que masquer le plus longtemps possible la rupture. Seule issue, selon l’auteur de ce noir diagnostic : la sortie de l’euro. -- downloaded pdf to Note
political_economy  Europe  Eurozone  EU  EU_governance  European_integration  financial_crisis  international_political_economy  international_finance  capitalism-systemic_crisis  sovereign_debt  democracy_deficit  monetary_union  austerity  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Werner Plumpe - The hour of the expert - economic expertise over 4 centuries - Eurozine - October 2012
What constitutes economic expertise? Looking at how European politics has answered this question over the last four centuries, Werner Plumpe argues that, at any given time, economic expertise is judged according to its coincidence with the conjuncture. -- Original in German -- Translation by Samuel Willcocks -- First published in Merkur 9-10/2012 (German version); Eurozine (English version) -- quite amusing, but nice overview that isn't excessively Anglo oriented
economic_history  economic_theory  expertise  sociology_of_knowledge  social_sciences  positivism  social_sciences-post-WWII  macroeconomics  economic_models  17thC  18thC  19thC  20thC  21stC  Europe-Early_Modern  intellectual_history  grand_narrative  narrative-contested  political_economy  economic_culture  economic_policy  capitalism  capitalism-varieties  capitalism-systemic_crisis  laisser-faire  cameralism  government-roles  business_cycles  business-and-politics  Keynesianism  neoclassical_economics  Austrian_economics  liberalism-19thC  finance_capital  bank_runs  financial_crisis  regulation  Marxism  public_enterprise  public_goods  infrastructure  market_fundamentalism  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Luca Corchia - Europe: Streeck replies to Habermas, and the debate goes on | Reset Dialogues on Civilizations - April 2014
The task of this brief presentation is to “establish a dialogue” with Streeck’s text, attempting to fill the hiatus between the answer and the original question that Habermas’ interpretation intended to pose to those wishing to simply dispose of economic and monetary union, ending up by dismantling the political and cultural integration project that inspired the founding fathers. -- downloaded pdf to Note
political_economy  international_finance  EU  EU_governance  ECB  Greece-Troika  monetary_union  Eurozone  Habermas  Europe-federalism  European_integration  nationalism  nation-state  national_interest  political_press  political_culture  economic_culture  financial_crisis  finance_capital  Great_Recession  democracy_deficit  public_opinion  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Luca Corchia - Europe: The debate between Habermas and Streeck about the Left and Europe’s future | Reset Dialogues on Civilizations - 25 March 2014
Over the next few months the press and television networks will one again focus on European events, returning the interest of Italian public opinion to these matters, and this will take place on the basis of the pressing timeframe dictated by political issues. In a few weeks’ time the election campaign for a European Union’s parliament, scheduled for May 22-25, will be fully under way in all 28 member states. -- check out footnotes -- downloaded pdf to Note
EU  EU_governance  Eurozone  ECB  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  Greece-Troika  democracy  democracy_deficit  legitimacy  elections  capitalism-systemic_crisis  capitalism-varieties  capital_as_power  Eurosceptic  European_integration  elites  elites-self-destructive  parties  social_democracy  right-wing  nationalism  nation-state  national_interest  political_press  political_culture  economic_culture  Habermas 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Jürgen Habermas - Re Wolfgang Streeck - Freedom and Democracy: Democracy or Capitalism? | Reset Dialogues on Civilizations - 1 July 2013
1st of a back-and-forth with Streeck and others -- Freedom and Democracy: Democracy or Capitalism? On the Abject Spectacle of a Capitalistic World Society fragmented along National Lines -- In his book on the deferred crisis of democratic capitalism Wolfgang Streeck develops an unsparing analysis of the origins of the present banking and debt crisis that is spilling over into the real economy. This bold, empirically based study developed out of Adorno Lectures at the Institute of Social Research in Frankfurt. At its best—that is, whenever it combines political passion with the eye-opening force of critical factual analysis and telling arguments—it is reminiscent of The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Napoleon. It takes as its starting point a justified critique of the crisis theory developed by Claus Offe and me in the early 1970s. The Keynesian optimism concerning governance prevalent at the time had inspired our assumption that the economic crisis potential mastered at the political level would be diverted into conflicting demands on an overstrained governmental apparatus and into “cultural contradictions of capitalism” (as Daniel Bell put it a couple of years later) and would find expression in a legitimation crisis. Today we are not (yet?) experiencing a legitimation crisis but we are witnessing a palpable economic crisis.
political_economy  political_philosophy  international_political_economy  capitalism-systemic_crisis  capital_as_power  finance_capital  financialization  Great_Recession  democracy  democracy_deficit  legitimacy  nationalism  financial_crisis  sovereign_debt  social_theory  globalization  global_governance  political_culture  economic_culture  stagnation  economic_sociology  Habermas  post-secular  Eurozone  European_integration  monetary_union  EU_governance  EU  Europe-federalism  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Suzanne J. Konzelmann, Marc Fovargue-Davies - Anglo-Saxon Capitalism in Crisis? Models of Liberal Capitalism and the Preconditions for Financial Stability :: SSRN (rev'd September 2011) Cambridge Centre for Business Research Working Paper No. 422
Suzanne J. Konzelmann, Birkbeck College - Social Sciences, School of Management and Organizational Psychology; Cambridge - Social and Political Sciences -- Marc Fovargue-Davies, U of London - The London Centre for Corporate Governance & Ethics -- The return to economic liberalism in the Anglo-Saxon world was motivated by the apparent failure of Keynesian economic management to control the stagflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. In this context, the theories of economic liberalism, championed by Friederich von Hayek, Milton Friedman and the Chicago School economists, provided an alternative. However, the divergent experience of the US, UK, Canada and Australia reveals two distinct ‘varieties’ of economic liberalism: the ‘neo-classical’ incarnation, which describes American and British liberal capitalism, and the more ‘balanced’ economic liberalism that evolved in Canada and Australia. In large part, these were a product of the way that liberal economic theory was understood and translated into policy, which in turn shaped the evolving relationship between the state and the private sector and the relative position of the financial sector within the broader economic system. Together, these determined the nature and extent of financial market regulation and the system’s relative stability during the 2008 crisis. -- PDF File: 61 -- Keywords: Corporate governance, Regulation, Financial market instability, Liberal capitalism, Varieties of capitalism -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  economic_history  20thC  21stC  post-WWII  post-Cold_War  US_politics  UK_politics  political_economy  political_culture  ideology  neoliberalism  economic_theory  economic_sociology  business_practices  business-and-politics  business-norms  business_influence  Keynesianism  neoclassical_economics  Austrian_economics  Chicago_School  capitalism-systemic_crisis  capitalism-varieties  corporate_governance  corporate_finance  capital_markets  capital_as_power  financialization  finance_capital  financial_regulation  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  policymaking  trickle-down  Canada  Australia  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Financial Transaction Taxes in Theory and Practice | Brookings Institution - June 30, 2015
By: Leonard E. Burman, William G. Gale, Sarah Gault, Bryan Kim, Jim Nunns and Steve Rosenthal -- In response to the financial market crisis and Great Recession, there has been a resurgence of interest in financial transaction taxes (FTTs) around the world. We estimate that a well-designed FTT could raise about $50 billion per year in the United States and would be quite progressive. We discuss the effects of an FTT on various dimensions of financial sector behavior and its ambiguous effects on economic efficiency. -- their overview sets up lots of strawmen while acknowledging that FTTs are quite common even in money center markets like London, but they've done some estimates of various types of impacts in the paper -- didn't download
paper  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_markets  financial_transaction_tax  liquidity  volatility  transaction_costs  international_finance 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
interfluidity » Greece - July 2015
Steve Randy Waldmann -- his 1st take on what's been going on, and how the Eurozone gives all the power to creditors, which produces a bunch of terribly misaligned incentives -- and what business bankruptcy law guards against
Instapaper  EU  EU_governance  Eurozone  ECB  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  Greece-Troika  IMF  bailouts  political_economy  democracy_deficit  austerity  bank_runs  central_banks  lender-of-last-resort  international_organizations  international_finance  creditors  bankruptcy  incentives-distortions  sovereign_debt  default  from instapaper
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Frederick Tung -Leverage in the Board Room: The Unsung Influence of Private Lenders in Corporate Governance:: SSRN - UCLA Law Review, Vol. 57, 2009 (rev'd 2012)
Boston University School of Law --:The influence of banks and other private lenders pervades public companies. From the first day of a lending arrangement, loan covenants and built-in contingency provisions affect managerial decision making. Conventional corporate governance analysis has been slow to notice or account for this lender influence. Corporate governance discourse has traditionally focused only on corporate law arrangements. The few existing accounts of creditors' influence over firm managers emphasize the drastic actions creditors take in extreme cases - when a firm is in serious trouble - but in fact, private lender influence is a routine feature of corporate governance even absent financial distress. (..) I explain the regularity of lender influence on managerial decision making - "lender governance" - comparing this routine influence to conventional governance arrangements and boards of directors in particular. I show that the extent of private lender influence rivals that of conventional governance mechanisms, and I discuss the doctrinal and policy implications of this unsung influence. Accounting for lender governance requires a new examination of corporate fiduciary duties, debtor-creditor laws, and the regulatory reform proposals that have emerged to address the current financial crisis. I also discuss the implications of private lender influence for future corporate governance research. -- PDF File: 69 -- lender governance, corporate governance, covenants, credit agreement, private lender, private debt, creditor, financial regulation, financial crisis -- saved to briefcase
article  SSRN  corporate_finance  corporate_governance  creditors  banking  relationship_lending  financial_regulation  corporate_law  capital_markets  commercial_law  debtors  debtor-creditor  debt-restructuring  financial_crisis  finance_capital  corporate_control 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
The Contribution of Bank Regulation and Fair Value Accounting to Procyclical Leverage by Amir Amel-Zadeh, Mary E. Barth, Wayne R. Landsman :: SSRN ( rev'd June 19, 2015)
Amir Amel-Zadeh, University of Cambridge, Judge Business School; Mary E. Barth, Stanford, Graduate School of Business; Wayne R. Landsman, U of North Carolina Kenan-Flagler Business School -- Rock Center for Corporate Governance at Stanford University Working Paper No. 147 -- Our analytical description of how banks’ responses to asset price changes can result in procyclical leverage reveals that for banks with a binding regulatory leverage constraint, absent differences in regulatory risk weights across assets, leverage is not procyclical. For banks without a binding constraint, fair value and bank regulation both can contribute to procyclical leverage. Empirical findings based on a large sample of US commercial banks reveal that bank regulation explains procyclical leverage for banks facing a binding regulatory leverage constraint and contributes to procyclical leverage for those that do not. Fair value accounting does not contribute to procyclical leverage. -- PDF File: 46 -- Keywords: Fair value accounting, procyclicality, leverage, risk-based capital regulation, financial institutions, commercial banks -- saved to briefcase
paper  SSRN  financial_system  financial_regulation  banking  capital_adequacy  leverage  procyclical  countercyclical_policy  macroprudential_regulation  risk  risk_management  asset_prices  firesales  accounting  financial_crisis  bubbles  Basle  international_finance 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Ronald J. Gilson, Reinier Kraakman - Market Efficiency after the Financial Crisis: It's Still a Matter of Information Costs :: SSRN - European Corporate Governance Institute Law Working Paper No. 242/2014
Ronald J. Gilson, Stanford Law & Columbia Law; Reinier Kraakman, Harvard Law; both ECGI -- [Financial crisis is said] to have demonstrated the bankruptcy of the Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis (“ECMH”). (..) the ECMH had moved beyond academia, fueling decades of a deregulatory agenda. (..) when economic theory moves from academics to policy, (..) inevitably refashioned to serve the goals of political argument. This happened starkly with the ECMH. It was subject to its own bubble – (..) expanded from a narrow but important academic theory about the informational underpinnings of market prices to a broad ideological preference for market outcomes over even measured regulation. (..) the ECMH addresses informational efficiency, which is a relative, not an absolute measure. This focus on informational efficiency leads to a more focused understanding of what went wrong in 2007-2008. Yet informational efficiency is related to fundamental efficiency (..) Properly framing market efficiency focuses our attention on the frictions that drive a wedge between relative efficiency and efficiency under perfect market conditions. (..) relative efficiency is a diagnostic tool that identifies the information costs and structural barriers that reduce price efficiency which, in turn, provides part of a realistic regulatory strategy. While it will not prevent future crises, improving the mechanisms of market efficiency will make prices more efficient, frictions more transparent, and the influence of politics on public agencies more observable, which may allow us to catch the next problem earlier. PDF File: 87 -- saved to briefcase
paper  SSRN  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_markets  EMH  information-markets  information-asymmetric  efficiency  prices  financial_economics  animal_spirits  behavioral_economics 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz - Dodd-Frank: Five Years After — Money, Banking and Financial Markets - June 2015
On July 21, 2010, President Obama signed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (hereafter, DF), the most sweeping financial regulatory… Very good roundup of the holes that are left, the inability to force a coherent inter-agency approach to key risk regulation areas (e.g. the Financial Stability Oversight couldn't force the SEC to write adequate Money Market Funds reg, making it even worse than before the crisis), and the areas where regs are excessively complex, costly etc -- so they either won't do the job (and regulators will wind up making ad hoc exceptions because they're not workable) or their going to get gamed. Basically comes down to the age-old problem of regulation by institutional form rather than by function. The financial crisis was the best chance we had to rationalize the system, and Paulson had Treasury working on a proposal to do just that, but it got trashed when the financial system blew up and everybody was battling for narrow interests in a crisis atmosphere with inflamed populist politics -- only thing positive was finally getting rid of OCC. I do think they're unnecessarily suspicious of the new consumer protection agency -- given that a full overhaul wasn't possible, somebody needs to be responsible for looking out for consumers, since the main regulators are focused on financial risk issues at the institutional or system level.
Instapaper  US_economy  US_politics  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  Fed  SEC  banking  capital_markets  government_agencies  risk  risk-systemic  risk_management  NBFI  shadow_banking  money_market  institutional_investors  consumer_protection  leverage  capital_adequacy  inter-agency  liquidity  arbitrage  markets-structure  intermediation  financial_instiutions  financial_system-government_back-stop  from instapaper
june 2015 by dunnettreader
Macroprudentialism – A new Vox eBook | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal 15 December 2014
Dirk Schoenmaker -- overview and TOC -- Macroprudentialism is now part of the standard macroeconomic toolkit but it involves a set of relatively untested policies. This column introduces a new VoX eBook that collects the thinking of a broad range of leading US and European economists on the matter. A consensus emerges on broad objectives of macroprudential supervision, but important disagreements remain among the authors. -- downloaded pdf to Note
financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  central_banks  macroprudential_regulation  leverage  business_cycles  banking  NBFI  shadow_banking  monetary_policy  EU  Eurozone  OECD_economies  credit  mortgages  downloaded 
june 2015 by dunnettreader
Andrew W. Lo - The Gordon Gekko Effect: The Role of Culture in the Financial Industry | NBER June 2015
NBER Working Paper No. 21267 -- Culture is a potent force in shaping individual and group behavior, yet it has received scant attention in the context of financial risk management and the recent financial crisis. I present a brief overview of the role of culture according to psychologists, sociologists, and economists, and then present a specific framework for analyzing culture in the context of financial practices and institutions in which three questions are answered: (1) What is culture?; (2) Does it matter?; and (3) Can it be changed? I illustrate the utility of this framework by applying it to five concrete situations—Long Term Capital Management; AIG Financial Products; Lehman Brothers and Repo 105; Société Générale’s rogue trader; and the SEC and the Madoff Ponzi scheme—and conclude with a proposal to change culture via “behavioral risk management.” -- check SSRN
paper  paywall  SSRN  financial_instiutions  business_practices  business-norms  risk_management  economic_culture  financial_crisis  financial_regulation  incentives  incentives-distortions  social_psychology  economic_sociology  firms-structure  firms-organization 
june 2015 by dunnettreader
Caspar Siegert and Matthew Willison - Estimating the extent of the ‘too big to fail’ problem – a review of existing approaches | Bank of England -- Financial Stability Paper 32: 13 February 2015
​How big is the ‘too big to fail’ (TBTF) problem? Different approaches have been developed to estimate the impact being perceived as TBTF might have on banks’ costs of funding. One approach is to look at how the values of banks’ equity and debt change in response to events that may have altered expectations that banks are TBTF. Another is to estimate whether debt costs vary across banks according to features that make them more or less likely to be considered TBTF. A third approach is to estimate a model of the expected value of government support to banks in distress. We review these different approaches, discussing their pros and cons. Policy measures are being implemented to end the TBTF problem. Approaches to estimating the extent of the problem could play a useful role in the future in evaluating the success of those policies. With that in mind, we conclude by outlining in what ways we think approaches need to develop and suggest ideas for future research. -- didn't download
paper  banking  financial_crisis  bank_runs  financial_system-government_back-stop  too-big-to-fail  rents  rent-seeking  risk_premiums  capital_markets  margin_requirements  equity_markets  leverage 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu, Haroon Mumtaz and Gabor Pinter - Forecasting with VAR models: fat tails and stochastic volatility | Bank of England Working Paper No. 528: May 29 2015
In this paper, we provide evidence that fat tails and stochastic volatility can be important in improving in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance. Specifically, we construct a VAR model where the orthogonalised shocks feature Student’s t distribution and time-varying variance. We estimate this model using US data on output growth, inflation, interest rates and stock returns. In terms of in-sample fit, the VAR model featuring both stochastic volatility and t-distributed disturbances outperforms restricted alternatives that feature either attributes. The VAR model with t disturbances results in density forecasts for industrial production and stock returns that are superior to alternatives that assume Gaussianity, and this difference is especially stark over the recent Great Recession. Further international evidence confirms that accounting for both stochastic volatility and Student’s t-distributed disturbances may lead to improved forecast accuracy. -- didn't download
paper  macroeconomics  economic_models  financial_crisis  probability  Great_Recession 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Charles A.E. Goodhart, Enrico Perotti - Maturity mismatch stretching: Banking has taken a wrong turn | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal CEPR - Policy Insight 81 05/06/2015
Banks were not always as mismatched as today.Till the 19th century, bank lending to the private sector was meant to be primarily for short-term, self-liquidating, trade-related working capital, especially in the guise of ‘real bills’, bills of exchange fnancing trade. This was true since the emergence of banks in the 15th century, supporting merchants in their long-distance trade. This approach persisted in the Anglo-American tradition, where banks discounted promissory notes and held the rest of the portfolio in easily saleable securities, especially Consols. This enabled a credible promise to depositors, as banks’ assets were either short-term, or easily sold, with little maturity mismatch. -- And then came Continental universal banking, employed to play catch up -- and then with disintermediation, and the need for banks to find other business, and securitization, and they became hostage to the long-wave boom and bust of real estate -- Land is scarce and its availability is fxed. In other words, real estate value has a large pure rent component. Thus in any expansion, real estate prices generally rise faster than consumer prices, and become prone to bubbles and busts. To avoid socialising risk taking, what is needed is an intermediation process where the fnancing comes from investors that assume the bulk of such risk. We call for solutions that ensure such risk bearing by focusing on two principles: much greater maturity matching and no insured deposit funding. These goals may be achieved by various means. One avenue is to securitise mortgages with little maturity transformation, such as those funded by bond or pension funds. Another is to create new intermediaries providing mortgage loans where the lender shares in the appreciation, while assuming some risk against the occasional bust. This may be seen as a shift towards the principles of Islamic banking, but it is also a return to tradition as in the early days of banking. -- downloaded pdf to Note
economic_history  18thC  19thC  20thC  21stC  banking  banking-universal  intermediation  maturity_transformation  disintermediation  capital_markets  securitization  housing  real_estate  bubbles  mortgages  financial_innovation  financial_crisis  liquidity  institutional_investors  debt-restructuring  debt-overhang  financial_stability  financial_system-government_back-stop  NBFI  downloaded 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
MN Baily, W Bekker and SE Holmes - The big four banks: The evolution of the financial sector, Part I | Brookings Institution - May 26, 2015
Martin Neil Baily, William Bekker and Sarah E. Holmes -- This report is the first in a series on the evolution of the financial sector. The series aims to retrace the major trends that have shaped the banking sector since the crisis and to orient the public as to where industry stands today. This first installment focuses on the “Big Four” banks: JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citi, and Wells Fargo. This first report is meant to be a factual exploration of the balance sheets of the four largest banks. We will follow this with a report on the regional banks and then a sample of smaller banks. While we give some commentary on the data, the purpose at this stage is to allow readers access to a picture of the largest banks and form their own judgments about why the banks have changed. Putting together the balance sheets of the big four seemed at first as if it would be a straightforward task, but the reality has been different and more difficult. We have aimed to present an accurate picture in the following pages but we would welcome comments. -- didn't download
paper  US_economy  banking  financial_system  financial_crisis  capital_adequacy  capital_markets  too-big-to-fail  intermediation 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
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