dunnettreader + emerging_markets   103

Ricardo J. Caballero, Alp Simsek - A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment: Global Liquidity Creation and Reach for Safety and Yield - NBER - October 2016
Gross capital flows are very large and highly cyclical. They are a central aspect of global liquidity creation and destruction. They also exhibit rich internal dynamics that shape fluctuations in domestic liquidity, such as the fickleness of foreign capital inflows and the retrenchment of domestic capital outflows during crises. In this paper we provide a model that builds on these observations to address some of the main questions and concerns in the capital flows literature. Within this model, we find that for symmetric economies, the liquidity provision aspect of capital flows vastly outweighs their fickleness cost, so that taxing capital flows, while could prove useful for a country in isolation, backfires as a global equilibrium outcome. However, if the system is heterogeneous and includes economies with abundant (DM) and with limited (EM) natural domestic liquidity, there can be scenarios when global liquidity uncertainty is high and EM's reach for safety can destabilize DMs, as well as risk-on scenarios in which DM's reach for yield can destabilize EMs.
paper  paywall  NBER  capital_flows  capital_markets  yield  liquidity  emerging_markets  capital_controls  financial_stability  international_finance 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Joseph Joyce - Capital Flows and Financial Crises | Capital Ebbs and Flows - Oct 2016
Prof at Wellesley. The impact of capital flows on the incidence of financial crises has been recognized since the Asian crisis of 1997-98. Inflows before the crisis contributed to…
Pretty much my position re Chile's controls in 1990s - FDI good, portfolio vulnerable to hot money, bad, especially foreign-denominated debt, but also bank deposits attracted by interest rates but easily reversed. But they're finding that it's not just the flows that are destabilizing -- exchange rate appreciation comes with foreign capital buying debt assets as well. So much for developing local bond markets? -- See links to papers, tracking not just macro level but B-schools looking at firm-level incentives, who goes in for leverage, etc.
economic_history  financial_crisis  financialization  emerging_markets  capital_flows  FDI  capital_markets  sovereign_debt  FX-misalignment  FX  economic_policy  from instapaper
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Brad Setser » Splitting out Emerging Economies Changes the Picture on Global Trade | Follow the Money - Oct 2016
The Financial Times’ Big Read feature on hidden trade barriers included a chart showing the growth in trade relative to the growth of the world economy. The…
trade  trade-policy  global_economy  emerging_markets  free_trade  OECD_economies  from instapaper
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Jean Tirole - Financial Crises, Liquidity, and the International Monetary System (eBook, Paperback 2016 and Hardcover 2002) - Princeton University Press
Written post Asia crisis but eternally applicable - he was focusing on capital flows when it still was heterodoxy -- Once upon a time, economists saw capital account liberalization--the free and unrestricted flow of capital in and out of countries--as unambiguously good. Good for debtor states, good for the world economy. No longer. Spectacular banking and currency crises in recent decades have shattered the consensus. In this remarkably clear and pithy volume, one of Europe's leading economists examines these crises, the reforms being undertaken to prevent them, and how global financial institutions might be restructured to this end. Jean Tirole first analyzes the current views on the crises and on the reform of the international financial architecture. Reform proposals often treat the symptoms rather than the fundamentals, he argues, and sometimes fail to reconcile the objectives of setting effective financing conditions while ensuring that a country "owns" its reform program. A proper identification of market failures is essential to reformulating the mission of an institution such as the IMF, he emphasizes. Next he adapts the basic principles of corporate governance, liquidity provision, and risk management of corporations to the particulars of country borrowing. Building on a "dual- and common-agency perspective," he revisits commonly advocated policies and considers how multilateral organizations can help debtor countries reap enhanced benefits while liberalizing their capital accounts.

Based on the Paolo Baffi Lecture the author delivered at the Bank of Italy, this refreshingly accessible book is teeming with rich insights that researchers, policymakers, and students at all levels will find indispensable. -- downloaded excerpt to Tab S2
books  kindle-available  downloaded  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  banking  capital_adequacy  contagion  sovereign_debt  international_monetary_system  international_finance  international_political_economy  IMF  emerging_markets  globalization  global_governance  global_system 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Stitching together the global financial safety net | Bank Underground - July 2016
https://bankunderground.co.uk/2016/07/22/stitching-together-the-global-financial-safety-net/ - Very useful sketch of the various mechanisms, especially central bank swaps, that were put in place during the early part of the financial crisis that kept liquidity shocks from turning into a global crash - additional mechanism designed since then, with lots of attention on regional arrangements, and a boost to the IMF's capital. Still concerns re holes in the safety net - especially if there's contagion that's region-wide - and concerns that developing economies may not have access to sufficient resources to manage sudden stops. .
Instapaper  global_economy  international_monetary_system  international_finance  financial_crisis  capital_flows  central_banks  IMF  emerging_markets  contagion  from instapaper
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian - Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint? | IMF Staff Papers - Jan 2009
IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 112–138. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.29; published online 6 January 2009 -- The stylized fact that there is no correlation between long-run economic growth and financial globalization has spawned a recent literature that purports to provide newer evidence and arguments in favor of financial globalization. We review this literature and find it unconvincing. The underlying assumptions in this literature are that developing countries are savings-constrained; that access to foreign finance alleviates this to boost investment and long-run growth; and that insofar as there are problems with financial globalization, these can be remedied through deep institutional reforms. In contrast, we argue that developing economies are as or more likely to be investment- than savings-constrained and that the effect of foreign finance is often to aggravate this investment constraint by appreciating the real exchange rate and reducing profitability and investment opportunities in the traded goods sector, which have adverse long-run growth consequences. It is time for a new paradigm on financial globalization, and one that recognizes that more is not necessarily better. Depending on context and country, the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital inflows as to encourage them. Policymakers who view their challenges exclusively from the latter perspective risk getting it badly wrong. - downloaded pdf to Note
paper  downloaded  IMF  international_political_economy  international_finance  global_economy  emerging_markets  LDCs  capital_flows  investment  investment-government  development  economic_growth  economic_policy  economic_reform  access_to_finance  capital_controls  FX-misalignment  FX-rate_management  economic_theory  macroeconomics  international_economics  financial_economics  financial_sector_development 
may 2016 by dunnettreader
Paydaynomics — The Paydaynomist - Medium Jan 2016
The magic (money) roundaboutIn our second post we thought it would be constructive to put up a very simplified description of the economics of a payday lender…
Instapaper  access_to_finance  microfinance  OECD_economies  emerging_markets  financial_regulation  banking  credit  from instapaper
january 2016 by dunnettreader
A disrupters view on UK payday — The Paydaynomist - Medium Jan 2016
A disrupters view on UK paydayWe’d love to do it and you know you’ve always had it comingThis is our maiden post. It’s our birth story explaining why we, as two…
Instapaper  access_to_finance  UK_economy  UK_Government  financial_regulation  banking  credit  microfinance  OECD_economies  emerging_markets  from instapaper
january 2016 by dunnettreader
O Blanchard, J D Ostry, AR Ghosh, M Chamon - Macro effects of capital inflows: Capital type matters | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 26 November 2015
Some scholars view capital inflows as contractionary, but many policymakers view them as expansionary. Evidence supports the policymakers. This column introduces an analytic framework that knits together the two views. For a given policy rate, bond inflows lead to currency appreciation and are contractionary, while non-bond inflows lead to an appreciation but also to a decrease in the cost of borrowing, and thus may be expansionary.
paper  capital_flows  emerging_markets  capital_markets  monetary_policy  interest_rates  FX-rate_management  banking  FDI  portfolio  _investment  investors 
november 2015 by dunnettreader
Diana Ayala Pena, Milan Nedeljkovic, Christian Saborowski - What Slice of the Pie? The Corporate Bond Market Boom in Emerging Economies | IMF Research - July 2015
This paper studies the determinants of shifts in debt composition among EM non-financial corporates. We show that institutions and macro fundamentals create an enabling environment for bond market development. During the recent boom episode, however, global cyclical factors accounted for most of the variation of bond shares in total corporate debt. The sensitivity to global factors appears to vary with relative bond market size—which we interpret to be associated with liquidity and easy entry and exit—rather than local fundamentals. Foreign bank linkages help explain why bond markets increasingly substituted for banks in channeling liquidity to EMs. Our results highlight the risk of capital flow reversal in EMs that benefited from the upturn in the global financial cycle mostly due to their liquid markets rather than strong fundamentals. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  IMF  financial_system  cross-border  emerging_markets  bond_markets  corporate_finance  disintermediation  capital_markets  capital_flows  liquidity  contagion  business_cycles  downloaded 
november 2015 by dunnettreader
Ben Leo and Todd Moss - Bringing US Development Finance into the 21st Century | Center For Global Development 7/20/15
Part of the White House and the World 2016 Briefing Book -- Well-established European development finance institutions (DFIs) are providing integrated services for businesses...-- debt and equity financing, risk mitigation, and technical assistance. .. emerging-market actors — including China, India, Brazil, and Malaysia — have dramatically increased financing activities in developing regions such as Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. As the needs of developing countries have changed, so has the political and economic environment in the US. First, traditional development dynamics are shifting rapidly from a donor-recipient aid relationship to win-win partnerships involving public and private actors. Second, most US aid agencies typically are not positioned to address many pressing development priorities, such as expanding economic opportunities in frontier markets. Third, the US development assistance budget has become increasingly constrained, with growing pressure to cut programs. Within this context, we assess the need for a modern, full-service US Development Finance Corporation and provide a series of options for how the next US president could structure such an institution consistent with bipartisan congressional support and budgetary realities. For such a USDFC, we propose below potential products, services, and tools; size, scale, and staffing requirements; governance structures and oversight functions; performance metrics; and capital structure models. We conclude with a notional implementation road map that includes the required US executive and legislative actions. -- downloaded pdf to Note
report  development  IFIs  aid  US_politics  public-private_partnerships  development-impact  development-finance  emerging_markets  FDI  technical_assistance  technology_transfer  US_government  US_politics-foreign_policy  fiscal_policy  cross-border  LDCs  World_Bank  IFC  downloaded 
october 2015 by dunnettreader
Jan Wouter - Investment Treaties: A Renewed Plea for Multilateralism | OECD Insights - Sept 2015
Jan Wouters, Professor of International Law, Director of the Leuven Centre for Global Governance Studies, University of Leuven -- We are living in interesting times for investment treaties, whether bilateral treaties or investment chapters in free trade agreements. Never before have they aroused such an interest from parliaments. People and politicians alike are concerned about their impact on international and domestic affairs. Their scope is expanding dramatically: just think of mega deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) or the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and the rise of intra-regional investment agreements. Debates on investment agreements have intensified recently within the EU because of the European Commission’s newly-acquired exclusive powers in this arena.
trade-agreements  ISDS  capital_flows  emerging_markets  FDI  OECD  multilateralism  Pocket  arbitration  global_governance  G-20  investment-bilateral_treaties  from pocket
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens, Damien Puy - Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 09 September 2015
Recent economic and financial events, such as the ‘taper tantrum’, have highlighted again the relevance of global factors in driving capital flows to emerging markets. This column suggests that capital flows to emerging markets move in part due to global push factors. However, sensitivity to these push factors differs greatly across types of flows and emerging markets. How much push factors affect individual emerging markets depends on their local liquidity and the composition of their foreign investor bases. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are significantly more affected by changes in push factors.
paper  emerging_markets  capital_flows  credit_booms  contagion  hot_money  institutional_investors 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Maurice Obstfeld - Understanding past and future financial crises | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal
Summary of their long paper, see bookmark -- Reposted 21 July 2015 - What explains the different effects of the crisis around the world? This column compares the 2007–09 crisis to earlier episodes of banking, currency, and sovereign debt distress and identifies domestic-credit booms and real currency appreciation as the most significant predictors of future crises, in both advanced and emerging economies. It argues these results could help policymakers determine the need for corrective action before crises hit. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  economic_history  20thC  financial_crisis  emerging_markets  capital_flows  credit_booms  leverage  business_cycles  FX-rate_management  FX  Great_Recession  bibliography  links  downloaded 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Maurice Obstfeld - Stories of the 20thC for the 21stC | CEPR via Ideas.repec.org
A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century’s first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises, regardless of whether a country is emerging or advanced. For emerging economies, however, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis. -- enormous lit review bibliography, see references links on Ideas page -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  economic_history  20thC  financial_crisis  emerging_markets  capital_flows  credit_booms  leverage  business_cycles  FX-rate_management  FX  Great_Recession  bibliography  links  downloaded 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Is the Glass Half Empty Or Half Full? : Issues in Managing Water Challenges and Policy Instruments | IMF Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/11, June 08, 2015
Author/Editor: Kalpana Kochhar ; Catherine A. Pattillo ; Yan Sun ; Nujin Suphaphiphat ; Andrew Swiston ; Robert Tchaidze ; Benedict J. Clements ; Stefania Fabrizio ; Valentina Flamini ; Laure Redifer ; Harald Finger -- Summary: This paper examines water challenges, a growing global concern with adverse economic and social consequences, and discusses economic policy instruments. Water subsidies provided through public utilities are estimated at about $456 billion or 0.6 percent of global GDP in 2012. The paper suggests that getting economic incentives right, notably by reforming water pricing, can go a long way towards encouraging more efficient water use and supporting needed investment, while enabling policies that protect the poor. It also discusses pricing reform options and emphasizes an integrated and holistic approach to manage water, going beyond the water sector itself. The IMF can play a helpful role in ensuring that macroeconomic policies are conducive to sound water management. -- Subject(s): Water resources | Economic policy | Subsidies | Water supply | Supply and demand | Policy instruments | Fund role -- paper summary in F&D issue, June 2015 (downloaded to Note) -- didn't download Staff Discussion Note
paper  IMF  water  development  LDCs  emerging_markets  aid  public_finance  economic_policy  economic_reform  economic_sociology  subsidies  sustainability  poverty  access_to_services  utilities  incentives  incentives-distortions  investment  infrastructure  public-private_partnerships  public_goods  downloaded  Aiviq 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Montfort Mlachila, René Tapsoba, and Sampawende Tapsoba - A Quest for Quality [of economic growth] -- Finance & Development, June 2015, Vol. 52, No. 2
Despite consensus in the economics profession that growth alone does not lead to better social outcomes (Ianchovichina and Gable, 2012), quality growth still lacks a rigorous definition or formal quantification. In a recent paper, we develop a quality of growth index (QGI) that captures both the intrinsic nature of growth and its social dimension. Our premise is that not all growth produces favorable social outcomes. How growth is generated is critical to its sustainability and ability to create decent jobs, enhance living standards, and reduce poverty. We aim in our design of the QGI to capture these multidimensional features of growth by focusing on its very nature and desired social outcomes. -- in F&D issue downloaded as pdf to Note
article  development  economic_growth  political_economy  LDCs  emerging_markets  GDP  GDP-alternatives  inequality  participation-economic  inclusion  marginalized_groups  access_to_services  access_to_finance  SMEs  micro-enterprises  Innovation  innovation-government_policy  rent-seeking  informal_sectors  living_standards  poverty  health_care  education  sustainability  unemployment  common_good  statistics  economic_policy  economic_sociology  economic_reform  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Hélène Rey - Dilemma Not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence (2013)
Rey, Hélène, 2013, “Dilemma Not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence” (Kansas City, Missouri: Federal Reserve Bank). -- downloaded pdf to Note
International_economics  international_finance  international_monetary_system  capital_flows  FX  monetary_policy  capital_markets  capital_controls  emerging_markets  downloaded  from notes
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Erlend W Nier, Tahsin Saadi Sedik - Capital flows, emerging markets and the global financial cycle | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 04 January 2015
Large and volatile capital flows into emerging economies since the Global Financial Crisis have re-invigorated efforts to unearth the determinants of these flows. This column investigates the interplay between global risk aversion (captured by the VIX) and countries’ characteristics. The authors also explore what policies countries should employ to protect themselves against the volatility of capital flows. The findings indicate that capital flows to emerging markets cannot be controlled without incurring substantial costs.
paper  emerging_markets  capital_flows  capital_markets  global_system  international_finance  global_financial_cycle  financial_crisis  Great_Recession  capital_controls  volatility  contagion  risk-systemic 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Anton Korinek - Going against the flow: Dealing with capital flows to emerging markets | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 22 December 2010
Capital flows to emerging markets are controversial territory. This column argues that they create externalities that make the recipient economies more vulnerable to financial fragility and crises. It adds that policymakers can make their economies better off by regulating and discouraging the use of risky forms of external finance – in particular short-term dollar-denominated debts
paper  emerging_markets  capital_flows  capital_markets  global_system  international_finance  global_financial_cycle  financial_crisis  Great_Recession  capital_controls  volatility  contagion  risk-systemic  risk-mitigation 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Must-Read: Sharun Mukand and Dani Rodrik: The Political Economy of Liberal Democracy - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
We distinguish between… property rights, political rights, and civil rights… …Liberal democracy is that it protects civil rights (equality before the law for minorities) in addition to the other two. Democratic transitions are typically the product of a settlement between the elite (who care mostly about property rights) and the majority (who care mostly about political rights). Such settlements rarely produce liberal democracy, as the minority has neither the resources nor the numbers to make a contribution at the bargaining table. We develop a formal model to sharpen the contrast between electoral and liberal democracies…. We discuss… the difference between social mobilizations sparked by industrialization and decolonization. Since the latter revolve around identity cleavages rather than class cleavages, they are less conducive to liberal politics. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  democracy  liberal_democracy  civil_liberties  rights-legal  rights-political  human_rights  democratization  transition_economies  elites-political_influence  property_rights  property-confiscations  identity_politics  decolonization  post-colonial  industrialization  LDCs  emerging_markets  development  economic_growth  political_economy  political_culture  majoritarian  minorities  class_conflict  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Era Dabla-Norris et al - Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality : A Global Perspective | IMF Research - June 2015
Era Dabla-Norris ; Kalpana Kochhar ; Nujin Suphaphiphat ; Frantisek Ricka ; Evridiki Tsounta -- This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive. (Duh!) -- didn't download
paper  IMF  economic_growth  inequality  OECD_economies  LDCs  emerging_markets  fiscal_policy  labor  labor_standards  supply-side  tax_policy  access_to_finance  poverty  working_class  middle_class  trickle-down 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Updating the Policy Framework for Investment (PFI) - OECD
Investment policy reviews are conducted using OECD investment instruments and - since its adoption in 2006 - the Policy Framework for Investment. Using a process of peer examination, the OECD Investment Committee has published investment policy reviews since 1993. Priority countries for review are those showing potential for adherence to the OECD investment instruments. ‌Since the PFI was agreed in 2006, new forces have reshaped the global investment landscape, including the global economic and financial crisis, which started in 2008 and from which many economies have still not recovered, the emergence of new major outward investors within the G20, the spread of global value chains, and signs that pressures for investment protectionism are on the rise. Numerous lessons have also been learnt through the use of the PFI, particularly in developing and emerging economies. The PFI has been updated to reflect these new global economic fundamentals and was released in Paris on 3 June 2015 at the OECD Ministerial Council Meeting. 4/6/2015 - More than 25 countries have used the PFI when engaging in investment policy reviews. The experiences of these countries were used as an integral part of the multi-stakeholder update of the PFI which is now complete. -- pdf links for revised PFI and a "background to the uodate" -- downloaded pdf to Note on Action Taken using PFI guidance
report  OECD  OECD_economies  LDCs  emerging_markets  policymaking  public_policy  investment  investors  FDI  value-chains  supply-side  supply_chains  globalization  regulation-harmonization  trade-policy  financial_sector_development  capital_flows  international_political_economy  international_finance  international_organizations  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Reinier Kraakman, Bernard S. Black - A Self Enforcing Model of Corporate Law :: SSRN - Harvard Law Review, vol. 109, pp. 1911-1982, 1996
This paper develops a "self-enforcing" approach to drafting corporate law for emerging capitalist economies, based on a case study: a model statute that we helped to develop for the Russian Federation, which formed the basis for the recently adopted Russian law on joint-stock companies. The paper describes the contextual features of emerging economies that make importing statutes from developed countries inappropriate, including the prevalence of controlled companies and the weakness of institutional, market, cultural, and legal constraints. Against this backdrop, we argue that the best legal strategy for protecting outside investors in emerging economies while simultaneously preserving the discretion of companies to invest is a self-enforcing model of corporate law. The self-enforcing model structures decisionmaking processes to allow large outside shareholders to protect themselves from insider opportunism with minimal resort to legal authority, including the courts. Among the examples of self-regulatory statutory provisions are a mandatory cumulative voting rule for the selection of directors, which assures that minority blockholders in controlled companies have board representation, and dual shareholder- and board-level approval procedures for self-interested transactions. The paper also examines how one can induce voluntary compliance and structure remedies in emerging economies, as well as the implications of the self-enforcing model for the ongoing debate over the efficiency of corporate law in developed economies. -- PDF File: 73 -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  SSRN  corporate_law  corporate_governance  investor_protection  investors  capital_markets  emerging_markets  transition_economies  Russia  privatization  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Patrick Love - OECD Report: Fostering Investing in infrastructure | OECD Insights Blog - 24 June 2015
According to the OECD’s Fostering Investment in Infrastructure, it’s going to cost a lot to keep the thrifty housewives across the globe happy over the next 15 years: $71 trillion, or about 3.5% of annual world GDP from 2007 to 2030 for transport, electricity, water, and telecommunications. The Newport railway was privately financed, as was practically all railway construction in Britain at the time, but in the 20th century, governments gradually took the leading role in infrastructure projects. In the 21st century, given the massive sums involved and the state of public finances after the crisis, the only way to get the trillions needed is to call on private funds. -- downloaded pdf to Note
report  OECD  infrastructure  infrastructure-markets  public-private_partnerships  project_finance  public_goods  public_finance  green_finance  green_economy  LDCs  emerging_markets  OECD_economies  energy  energy-markets  telecommunications  technology_transfer  technology-adoption  FDI  water  urban_development  public_health  economic_growth  economic_reform  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Thorsten Beck, Ralph De Haas, Steven Ongena - Understanding Emerging Market Banks: A new eBook | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 06 November 2013
New micro-level data sets allow better testing of existing and new hypotheses on how banks operate in the often challenging environment of emerging markets. This column introduces an eBook that reports on the findings of a recent conference in London on using different research methodologies and data sources in banking research the way towards an exciting research agenda. The papers presented in the conference and summarised in this eBook point *-* First, more detailed micro-level data help researchers and practitioners understand the impact of innovative products, lending techniques, and delivery channels. *-* Second, micro-level data allow a more careful analysis of the impact of specific financial-sector policies on banks and customers. *'* Third, the data opens the important area of how demand- and supply-side constraints on entrepreneurs affect access to external finance. Applying lessons from behavioural economics will be critical in the third point. -- didn't download
etexts  financial_economics  banking  microfinance  emerging_markets  financial_innovation  property_rights  rule_of_law  accounting  methodology-quantitative  methodology-qualitative  SMEs  investment  entrepreneurs  access_to_finance  access_to_services  behavioral_economics 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Thorsten Beck, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria - Foreign banks and small and medium enterprises: Are they really estranged? | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 01 April 2010
Small and medium enterprises are engines of economic growth. But what kind of market structure is more conducive to financing these enterprises? This column argues that different types of bank, applying different types of lending technology and organisational structures can all play a vital role in financing them. They're working with a big data set they developed -- shows quite different lending technologies as between foreign and domestic, but similar outcomes in volume of lending, conditions, pricing etc. The big differences are cross couhtry, where thoorer, less developed suffer from less access to credit for investment, higher pricing, etc -- which reflects overall economic conditions and business environment. -- nice use of data -- downloaded page as pdf to Note
financial_system  development  emerging_markets  LDCs  SMEs  access_to_finance  banking  financial_instiutions  cross-border  firms-structure  firms-organization  credit_ratings  financial_sector_development  financial_innovation  investment  collateral  downloaded 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Jonathan D. Ostry , Atish R. Ghosh , and Mahvash S. Qureshi - Managing Capital Flows in Frontier Economies | IMF Direct - April 2015
By Jonathan D. Ostry , Atish R. Ghosh , and Mahvash S. Qureshi  There has been a remarkable increase in financial flows to frontier economies from private… Enfin! Just 20+ years late. Nice roundup of various people (like Rodrik) thinking about all the variables, including what sorts of local institutional capacity (government and financial markets and institutions) are required for (1) absorbing different types of capital flows or (2) if a country wants to restrict flows in some fashion, to manage different types of restrictions. Additionally, there are challenges to the basic premise of encouraging capital flows to frontier markets -- these countries are more likely to be investment constrained than the unproven assumption that they're savings constrained. Macroeconomic impacts are also getting a closer look, not only the dilemmas of managing monetary policy and exchange rates -- e. g., FDI can be defeated if inflows raise the rate to reduce trade advantages. Since the biggest issuers from frontier markets tend to be the state, there's a big potential impact on sustainability of fiscal policy (to say nothing of corruption), and again the exchange rate impacts can be severe in both directions. The post is mainly an outline of an ambitious, multidimensional research program that's emerging among development economists, financial economists, macroeconomics in both the OECD countries and think tanks in emerging markets and the IFIs. -- finally the discussion has moved off the obsession with flight capital that took root in the 1980s and was the trump played anytime anyone questioned the happy-happy conventional wisdom of capital liberalization promoters.
economic_theory  macroeconomics  capital_flows  FDI  IFIs  IMF  capital_controls  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  FX  FX-misalignment  neoliberalism  globalization  emerging_markets  frontier_markets  competitiveness  technology_transfer  infrastructure  development  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_sector_development  financial_stability  banking  interest_rates  institutional_investors  institutional_capacity  institution-building  central_banks  governance  bibliography  Instapaper  from instapaper
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Christopher A. Hartwell - Do (successful) stock exchanges support or hinder institutions in transition economies? | Cogent Economics & Finance Volume 2, Issue 1, 2014 - T&F Online
Department of International Management, Kozminski University, Warsaw, Poland -- University of Huddersfield, UK -- A stock exchange and the presence of functioning equity markets are part and parcel of an advanced market-based financial system. Previous research has also established that equity markets function more efficiently in the presence of supporting institutions such as property rights and rule of law. But how do these two aspects of the institutional environment interact? That is, does the performance of a stock exchange support the development of property rights, or can it actually hinder it? Examining monthly data for 21 transition economies over a shifting monthly window from 1989 to 2012, and using a fixed-effects specification with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, I find support for the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between property rights and stock market performance. While a well-functioning stock market may help reinforce property rights through demonstration effects, a stock market that has become “too successful” may entrench interests and lead to property rights-eroding policies. -- downloaded to iPhone
paper  download  financial_system  property_rights  transition_economies  capital_markets  equity_markets  financial_sector_development  emerging_markets  investors  financial_instiutions  political_economy  privatization  markets-structure  oligarchy 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Garicano, Luis and Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban (2014) - Knowledge-based hierarchies: using organizations to understand the economy - LSE Research Online
Via Economic Principals -- We argue that incorporating the decision of how to organize the acquisition, use, and communication of knowledge into economic models is essential to understand a wide variety of economic phenomena. We survey the literature that has used knowledge-based hierarchies to study issues like the evolution of wage inequality, the growth and productivity of firms, economic development, the gains from international trade, as well as offshoring and the formation of international production teams, among many others. We also review the nascent empirical literature that has, so far, confirmed the importance of organizational decisions and many of its more salient implications. - downloaded to iPhone
paper  lit_survey  economic_theory  economic_growth  productivity  inequality  labor  wages  supply_chains  teams  off-shoring  trade  emerging_markets  corporate_finance  development  MNCs  power  power-asymetric  firm-theory  organization  hierarchy  know-how  technology  innovation  superstars  middle_class  working_class  social_stratification  social_theory  institutional_economics  globalization  economy_of_scale  increasing_returns  IP  downloaded 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Kose, Prasad, Rogoff & Wei (2009) - Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal
downloaded to iPhone - see also papers citing this - The literature on the benefits and costs of financial globalization for developing countries has exploded in recent years, but along many disparate channels with a variety of apparently conflicting results. There is still little robust evidence of the growth benefits of broad capital account liberalization, but a number of recent papers in the finance literature report that equity market liberalizations do significantly boost growth. Similarly, evidence based on microeconomic (firm- or industry-level) data shows some benefits of financial integration and the distortionary effects of capital controls, but the macroeconomic evidence remains inconclusive. At the same time, some studies argue that financial globalization enhances macroeconomic stability in developing countries, but others argue the opposite. This paper attempts to provide a unified conceptual framework for organizing this vast and growing literature, particularly emphasizing recent approaches to measuring the catalytic and indirect benefits to financial globalization. Indeed, it argues that the indirect effects of financial globalization on financial sector development, institutions, governance, and macroeconomic stability are likely to be far more important than any direct impact via capital accumulation or portfolio diversification. This perspective explains the failure of research based on cross-country growth regressions to find the expected positive effects of financial globalization and points to newer approaches that are potentially more useful and convincing.
credit  financial_innovation  spreads  financial_crisis  contagion  investment  financial_sector_development  interest_rates  FDI  emerging_markets  download  bubbles  FX  capital_flows  monetary_policy  fiscal_policy  financial_system  IMF  banking  NBFI  business_cycles  sovereign_debt  global_economy  macroeconomics  globalization 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Menzie Chin - The Dollar’s Recent Rise in Perspective | Econbrowser Jan 2015
"My own personal worries revolve around emerging markets. As noted (e.g., [3]), and appreciating dollar implies a deterioration in emerging market firm balance sheets when there are large amounts of dollar debt. Fixed or semi-fixed exchange rates will mitigate this effect if sustainable; otherwise, pernicious feedback loops are going to be established. I particularly worry about the dollar appreciation in conjunction with increasing yields in the US. Rising US yields would likely pull financial capital from emerging markets, with particularly negative effects on growth..." -- Saved to Evernote for charts especially for impact of 1980s strong dollar
global_economy  FX  US_economy  dollar  emerging_markets  sovereign_debt  interest_rates  economic_growth  capital_flows  financial_crisis  central_banks  Fed  QE  contagion  international_political_economy  competitiveness  trade  balance_of_payments  capital_markets  commodities  asset_prices  spreads  20thC  post-WWII  Evernote 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Twin Engines: How Consumer Spending and Commodities Drive Indonesia's Growth - Knowledge@Wharton - June 2012
a few years old, pre elections and commodity price declines, but interesting stats on how growth was continuing post global financial crisis - the energy, infrastructure & transport pressures to meet growing middle class demand are going to be severe
Asia-Pacific  Indonesia  economic_growth  emerging_markets  commodities  consumer_demand  middle_class 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Jeffrey A. Sheehan - The Legacy of Indonesia's Boediono - Knowledge@Wharton
Boediono served as Vice President of Indonesia from 2009 to October 20, 2014, when President Joko Widodo was elected and took office with Vice President Jusuf Kalla. In the following piece, Jeffrey A. Sheehan of Sheehan Advisory LLC — and former associate dean for international relations at Wharton — writes about Boediono, who he has known for 22 years. The material, which draws on public and private discussions, is excerpted from the manuscript of Sheehan’s forthcoming book, tentatively titled, “There Are No Foreign Lands.”
books  Indonesia  democracy  democratization  development  nation-state  state-building  emerging_markets  national_ID  globalization  global_governance  post-colonial  Dutch  20thC  21stC  bureaucracy  corruption 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Paul Krugmam blog - Recent History in One Chart (Branko Milanovic global inequality trends) | NYTimes.com Jan 2015
A number of people have been putting up candidates for chart of the year. For me, the big chart of 2014 wasn’t actually from 2014 — it was from earlier work (pdf) by Branko Milanovic, which I somehow didn’t see until a few months ago. It shows income growth since 1988 by percentiles of the world income distribution (as opposed to national distributions): {chart} What you see is the surge by the global elite (the top 0.1, 0.01, etc. would be doing even better than his top 1), plus the dramatic rise of many but not all people in emerging markets. In between is what Branko suggests corresponds to the US lower-middle class, but what I’d say corresponds to advanced-country working classes in general, at least if you add post-2008 data with the effects of austerity. I’d call it the valley of despond, and I think it’s going to be a crucial factor in developments over the next few years.
economic_history  post-Cold_War  globalization  20thC  21stC  economic_growth  inequality  labor  wages  middle_class  OECD_economies  emerging_markets  LDCs  capital  profit  plutocracy  China  India  political_economy  poverty  stagnation  downloaded 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
How big should central bank balance sheets be?
very useful discussion with good links - not just re developed economies but also emerging markets central banks
central_banks  monetary_policy  banking  liquidity  Fed  QE  links  emerging_markets 
december 2014 by dunnettreader
Atish R Ghosh, Mahvash Saeed Qureshi, Naotaka Sugawara - Regulating capital flows at both ends | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 30 October 2014
"Capital flows to emerging markets have been very volatile since the global financial crisis. This has kindled debates on whether – and how – to better manage cross-border capital flows. In this column, the authors examine the role of capital account restrictions in both source and recipient countries in taming destabilising capital flows. The results indicate that capital account restrictions at either end can significantly lower the volume of cross-border flows." -- it's an IMF team -- though they look at controls on both ends, and tentatively recommend at least ratcheting up prudential standards in source countries at high parts of the business cycle to reduce pro-cyclical effects of large capital flows to emerging markets and peripheral Europe (good luck with taking away the punch bowl!), just controlling foreign currency denominated lending in recipient countries (especially peripheral Europe) would have made a huge difference to the size of the dilemma of getting out of the debt overhang that's also impaired source country (i.e. German) banks that's made recovery so difficult -- replay of Latin American lost decade during which OECD banks couldn't take the full hit at once, so the problem debts had to be gradually resolved through "growing out of it" and the hot potato game cleared up bank balance sheets gradually through shifting syndicated loans to the vultures in the bond markets -- we've seen this movie before, from Latin American to Asian to Eurozone debt crisis
international_political_economy  international_finance  capital_flows  cross-border  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  emerging_markets  Eurozone  FX  capital_markets  macroprudential_policies  macroprudential_regulation  debt-restructuring  debt_crisis 
november 2014 by dunnettreader
Oct 2014 - OECD - Heads of Tax Administration agree global actions | Tax administration - OECD
24/10/2014 - The OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Project and the move to automatic exchange of financial account information took centre stage when Heads of Tax Administration met on 23-24 October in Dublin, Ireland. Nearly forty delegations, including international and regional tax organisations, participated in the Ninth Meeting of the OECD Forum on Tax Administration (FTA) and agreed that ever greater co-operation will be necessary to implement the results of the BEPS project and automatic exchange of information. Specifically they agreed: ** A strategy for systematic and enhanced co-operation between tax administrations; ** To invest the resources needed to implement the new standard on automatic exchange of information; and ** To improve the practical operation of the mutual agreement process. The communiqué contains links to the following publications that have just been released by the FTA: ** Increasing Taxpayers’ Use of Self-service Channels ** Working Smarter in Tax Debt Management ** Tax Compliance by Design – Achieving improved SME Tax Compliance by Adopting a System Perspective ** Measures of Tax Compliance Outcomes – A Practical Guide -- The FTA is the leading international body concerned with tax administration, bringing together the heads of tax administrations from the OECD, members of the G20 and large emerging economies.
OECD_economies  emerging_markets  OECD  G20  BEPS  international_political_economy  global_governance  taxes  tax_havens  tax_collection  MNCs  SMEs  fiscal_policy  sovereign_debt  public_finance  regulation-harmonization  regulation-enforcement  regulation-costs  transparency  cross-border  governments-information_sharing  government_finance  government_agencies  administrative_law 
november 2014 by dunnettreader
Jack A. Goldstone - The New Population Bomb: The Four Megatrends That Will Change the World | JSTOR: Foreign Affairs, Vol. 89, No. 1 (January/February 2010), pp. 31-43
UN predicts global population will level off by 2050 at approximately 9.15 billion from a bit under 7 billion today. Assuming we can avoid environmental catastrophe, the big demographic shifts will be more than half the population will be in cities and the growth will have been concentrated in younger cohorts of less developed regions, especially countries with low quality health, education and infrastructure, lack of economic opportunities to absorb the youth population (especially young, easily radicalized males) with the current wealthy economies both relatively older and smaller, requiring immigration to maintain growth and income levels. These trends will require a wholesale makeover in global governance. -- didn't download
article  jstor  21stC  global_economy  global_system  global_governance  population  demography  economic_growth  political_sociology  IR  OECD_economies  emerging_markets 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Lapavitsas, Costas and Aybar, S. - "Financial System Design and the Post-Washington Consensus" (2001) - In Lapavitstas, C. and Fine, B. and Pincus, J., (eds.), Neither the Washington nor the Post-Washington Consensus - SOAS Research Online
Lapavitsas, Costas and Aybar, S. (2001) 'Financial System Design and the Post-Washington Consensus.' In: Lapavitstas, C. and Fine, B. and Pincus, J., (eds.), Neither the Washington nor the Post-Washington Consensus: Development at the Crossroads. London: Routledge, pp. 28-51. -- no abstract -- eprint not on SOAS site
paper  books  libraries  financial_system  financial_sector_development  financial_regulation  development  World_Bank  emerging_markets 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Hyeng-Joon Park - Korea’s Post-1997 Restructuring: An Analysis of Capital as Power | forthcoming in Review of Radical Political Economics (2015) pp. 1-44 | bnarchives
This paper aims to transcend current debates on Korea’s post-1997 restructuring, which rely on a dichotomy between domestic industrial capital and foreign financial capital, by adopting Nitzan and Bichler’s capital-as-power perspective. Based on this approach, the paper analyzes Korea’s recent political economic restructuring as the latest phase in the evolution of capitalist power and its transformative regimes of capital accumulation. -- Keywords: differential accumulation dominant capital chaebols transnationalization strategic sabotage -- Subjects: BN State & Government, BN Institutions, BN Power, BN International & Global, BN Region - Asia, BN Business Enterprise, BN Value & Price, BN Crisis, BN Production, BN Conflict & Violence, BN Money & Finance, BN Distribution, BN Comparative, BN Capital & Accumulation, BN Policy, BN Class, BN Labour, BN Growth -- downloaded from author's blog to Note
article  international_political_economy  capital_as_power  globalization  Korea  East_Asia  20thC  21stC  economic_history  1990s  2000s  2010s  Asian_crisis  Asia_Pacific  international_finance  FDI  finance_capital  financialization  emerging_markets  oligopoly  chaebols  crony_capitalism  industry  production  capitalism  capitalism-systemic_crisis  capitalization  accumulation  distribution-income  distribution-wealth  cross-border  trade  productivity-labor_share  class_conflict  labor_share  Labor_markets  unions  violence  economic_growth  sabotage-by_business  business-and-politics  business-norms  power-asymmetric  public_policy  public_goods  corporate_finance  corporate_ownership  investment  banking  political_culture  economic_culture  economic_reform  economic_policy  democracy  opposition  downloaded  EF-add 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Bianca De Paoli and Anna Lipinska - Capital Controls: A Normative Analysis | FRBNY Staff Reports Number 600 - February 2013
Countries' concerns about the value of their currency have been studied and documented extensively in the literature. Capital controls can be--and often are--used as a tool to manage exchange rate fluctuations. This paper investigates whether countries can benefit from using such a tool. We develop a welfare-based analysis of whether (or, in fact, how) countries should tax international borrowing. Our results suggest that restricting international capital flows through the use of these taxes can be beneficial for individual countries, although it would limit cross-border pooling of risk. The reason is because, while consumption risk-pooling is important, individual countries also care about domestic output fluctuations. Moreover, the results show that countries decide to restrict the international flow of capital exactly when this flow is crucial to ensure cross-border risk sharing. Our findings point to the possibility of costly "capital control wars" and thus to significant gains from international policy coordination. -- enfin! We're making progress in clearing away the accumulated layers of free market ideology. Not sure about the likelihood of "capital control wars" so have to read the thing to see if their global cross-border risk-pooling ("consumption risk-pooling? ) is a significant "common good" for anybody other than financial institutions or the beneficiaries of windfall surpluses like Saudi petrodollars that need recycling. Downloaded pdf to Note
paper  Fed  international_political_economy  international_finance  global_economy  global_imbalance  global_governance  capital_flows  FX  FX-misalignment  emerging_markets  hot_money  contagion  capital_controls  FDI  debt  macroeconomics  central_banks  FX-rate_management  monetary_policy  downloaded  EF-add 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Coppola Comment: Debt hysteria - September 30, 2014
The global debt glut described in the Geneva 16 report, and the global saving glut described by Bernanke, are the same thing. The authors note that growth has been slowing in developed countries since 1980. Indeed it has - and during that time capital ownership and indebtedness have been increasing in tandem, as we might expect since they are opposite sides of the same coin. The report cites numerous analyses that show high debt levels - public AND private - tending to impede growth as resources that could have been turned to productive investment are spent on debt service. Secular stagnation is as much a consequence of over-indebtedness as it is of excess capital. -- When the private sector is highly indebted, saving can take the form of paying off debt. If the government runs a surplus, therefore, it impedes deleveraging in the private sector, and may even force some sectors (typically the poor) to increase debt. Reducing the sovereign debt not only reduces saving in the private sector, it comes at the price of continued and possibly rising indebtedness. The report rightly notes that transferring debt from the private to the public sector, as the US has done, isn't deleveraging. But transferring it back again isn't deleveraging either. And as transferring it back again is likely only to be possible with extensive sovereign guarantees (the UK's Help to Buy, for example), whose debt is it really, anyway? Reports such as this, that look on debt as a problem and ignore the associated savings, fail to address the real issue. The fact is that households, corporations and governments like to have savings and are terrified of loss. Writing down the debt in which people invest their savings means that people must lose their savings. THIS is the real "shock, horror". This is what people fear when they worry about a catastrophic debt default. This is what the world went to great lengths to prevent in 2008. The problem is not the debt, it is the savings.
global_imbalance  global_economy  international_political_economy  international_finance  savings  investment  institutional_investors  debt  debt-restructuring  debtors  credit  creditors  equity  equity-corporate  sovereign_debt  default  risk  risk-systemic  inflation  austerity  economic_growth  stagnation  OECD_economies  emerging_markets  banking  capital_markets  capital_adequacy  government_finance  leverage  deleverage  property_rights  pensions  interest_rates  Evernote 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Cassandra Does Tokyo: Sympathy For The Devil -July 2014
Brilliantly horrifying mock CV of a senior executive moving through all the financial ibdustry's greatest "hits" of the past quarter century, starting with Citibank generating loan deals in the NICs to recycle pétrodollars, through Drexel stuffing LBO junk bonds in related fiduciaries, Long Term Capital, dot com bubble, commodity "swaps" as low risk uncorrelated asset class, of course mortgage securitization, HFT "liquidity provision" via order sniffing, front running, dark pools, selective "market making", and designing equity portfolio insurance for post crash terrified institutional investors (who would lose the entire upside of past 5 years stock prices, plus a few ywists, especially from the '90s involving derivatives, the Nikkei, etc that were off my radar screen. Only thing I think he left out were the various municipal finance scams.
20thC  post-Cold_War  21stC  economic_history  financialization  Great_Recession  financial_innovation  bubbles  busisness-ethics  institutional_investors  derivatives  securitization  HFT  emerging_markets  fraud  fiduciaries  financial_regulation  finance_capital 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
theAIRnet.org - Home
The Academic-Industry Research Network – theAIRnet – is a private, 501(c)(3) not-for-profit research organization devoted to the proposition that a sound understanding of the dynamics of industrial development requires collaboration between academic scholars and industry experts. We engage in up-to-date, in-depth, and incisive research and commentary on issues related to industrial innovation and economic development. Our goal is to understand the ways in which, through innovation, businesses and governments can contribute to equitable and stable economic growth – or what we call “sustainable prosperity”.
website  economic_growth  industry  technology  Innovation  green_economy  development  business  business-and-politics  capitalism  global_economy  public-private_partnerships  public_policy  public_health  public_goods  urban_development  health_care  IP  Labor_markets  wages  unemployment  education-training  sustainability  financial_system  corporate_citizenship  corporate_governance  corporate_finance  CSR  firms-theory  management  plutocracy  MNCs  international_political_economy  human_capital  OECD_economies  emerging_markets  supply_chains  R&D  common_good  1-percent  inequality  working_class  work-life_balance  workforce  regulation  regulation-harmonization  incentives  stagnation 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Barry Eichengreen - Restructuring Debt Restructuring - Project Syndicate - September 2014
The US courts debacle re Argentina and the vultures which effectively dismantled sovereign debt market rules and access to the US has finally (30 years kate) resulted in collective action clauses that were obviously needed from the 1980s Latin_America debt crisis -- - Eichengreen: In 2003, in an article in the American Economic Review, Ashoka Mody and I made the case for these provisions. They are basically what the International Capital Market Association of leading investors and issuers has now agreed to implement, subject to some additional details that need not be examined here. Why didn’t it happen sooner? The answer is that getting investors to agree is like herding cats. In this case, it required strong behind-the-scenes leadership from the US Treasury. The agreement is not perfect, and problems remain. Because new contractual provisions are not easily retrofitted into old bonds, it will take years before the clauses are included in the entire stock of debt. Establishing an international bankruptcy court would be a far more efficient solution, but that doesn’t make it feasible. Investors were wise to acknowledge that, in international capital markets, the perfect is the enemy of the good.
sovereign_debt  default  debt-restructuring  capital_markets  US_legal_system  US_judiciary  emerging_markets  collective_action  Argentina  Latin_America 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Ruud de Mooij, Michael Keen, Victoria Perry - Fixing international corporate taxation | vox 14 September 2014
IMF experience in developing countries points to some distinctive policy issues. Over the past 2 decades, developing countries have signed a huge number of tax treaties. But the evidence on whether they actually affect FDI (plagued by endogeneity issues) is mixed at best. What we do see in our country work are sometimes significant revenue losses, reinforced by the ability of MNCs to route and structure their intra-group payments to exploit treaty arrangements. This has for some while led IMF staff to (cautiously) urge caution in signing treaties – a view... included in the G20-OECD Action Plan of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting project. [A less prominent but important issue] is the tax treatment of capital gains on the transfer of interest in assets, such as telecoms or mineral licenses – it may be possible to avoid tax in the country where these assets are inherently located by holding them through a chain of offshore companies, and then selling the claim to a low-tax jurisdiction. This has emerged as a macro-relevant concern in several low-income countries (such as Mauritania and Uganda). *-* The underlying policy issue is one of spillovers in international taxation – the effects that, through the ways in which business reacts, one country’s tax decisions have an impact on others. A low or zero tax rate on income arising in a country is only the most obvious route. Network externalities also arise from the signing of treaties (if A, which has a treaty with B, signs another with C, in effect creating a treaty between B and C without consent from B); and countries can compete over tax bases by special regimes for types of income or activities. *-* one has to start by looking at the basic architecture of international taxation. -- closer to where the world may be heading, is moving toward a combination of arm’s-length pricing on transactions where this is relatively easy (such as for most tangibles) and a formulaic profit split where it is not (such as for most intangibles). And there are other suggestions for fundamentally different international tax policies, such as that for destination-based corporate tax, which mimics a VAT but with a deduction for the cost of labour.
international_political_economy  global_economy  global_governance  taxes  tax_havens  MNCs  transfer_pricing  trade-agreements  treaties  international_law  international_economics  law-and-economics  law-and-finance  corporate_citizenship  emerging_markets  G20  OECD_economies  OECD  IMF  FDI  investment-bilateral_treaties  externalities  bibliography  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Joshua Aizenman, Yin-Wong Cheung , Hiro Ito International reserves before and after the Global Crisis: Is there no end to hoarding? | vox 13 September 2014
CIn the aftermath of the global financial crisis new patterns of reserve hoarding have emerged. This column identifies structural changes in international reserve accumulation. Emerging markets with higher savings rates tend to use higher buffers of reserves, partially accounting for the higher levels of reserves in east Asia compared to Latin America. While there is no end in sight for reserve hoarding, some of the newly identified factors may mitigate eventual reserve accumulation.
international_political_economy  international_monetary_system  balance_of_payments  FX  financial_crisis  Great_Recession  emerging_markets  central_banks  China 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Lant Pritchett -The Politics of Penurious Poverty Lines (Part II) Strange Bedfellows | Center For Global Development September 2014
Re unholy alliance in US, Europe and Japan between advocates for the destitute, fiscal realists and post-materialists -- I argue the success of the "advocates for the destitute" is the result of a coalition of strange bedfellows that actually bring the political heft in rich countries and use the rhetoric of the "advocates" as cover. The fiscal realists and post-materialists like penurious poverty lines not because they put more attention on the poor [the advocates' rationalization of using the poorest of the poor as a PR target], but because they take income gains to everyone else off the table by making a small deal of big differences in incomes between the “middle class” in Ethiopia or India and those of the rich countries. Reframing the “center” of the development agenda around an arbitrary poverty measure that eliminates 5 billion people from “development” is a political master-stroke for the fiscal realists. The advocates of penurious poverty lines create political space for fiscal realists to posture as “pro-development” (and not just hard-hearted or fiscally strapped) while arguing that “development assistance” hasn’t gone to “the poor” (by this new arbitrary measure) and hence with “focus,” agencies need less resources. “Extreme poverty” is a boon for post-materialists in promoting their goals as it manages to take the concerns of large majorities in developing countries in favor of rapid material progress (prioritized at their existing material conditions over other legitimate goals) off the table as their income gains don’t “count” as development progress as they are not “poor.”
post-2015_agenda  development  poverty  global_governance  emerging_markets  OECD_economies  aid  conservatism  values  environment  sustainability  welfare  technical_assistance  technology_transfer  middle_class  international_organizations  UN 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Lant Pritchett - Politics of Penurious Poverty Lines (Part I) | Center For Global Development -September 2014
There are three good reasons why gains to those between the 40th and 80th percentile of the income/consumption distribution need to be central to a global development agenda. -- 1. there is at least a rhetorical consensus on two points: one, that aid effectiveness is requires “country ownership,” and two, governments should reflect the wishes of their citizens (some would simplify this to “democracy”). How can a democratically elected government be expected to “own” a global development agenda centered on a goal that excludes their middle class .. and not on policies that promote the general well-being of all citizens. 2. the consumption of the median person in developing countries is itself a good development target. Birdsall and Meyer (2014) show that, compared to even the poorest in rich countries, the median in developing countries have very low consumption - the poorest income quintile in the USA is 15 times higher than the consumption of the median person in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, or Nigeria and almost 10 times higher than even the median person in “middle income” countries like Egypt or China. No one in US politics claims the consumption of the US median household at $39 dollars a day is “too rich” to merit concern. 3. many have argued that having a functional and prospering “middle class” is instrumentally essential to development and functioning governance and hence benefitting the poor (e.g., Easterly 2000). Given the central role that “good governance” and “building institutions” has acquired in development discourse, try to imagine a successful strategy for strengthening governance or institutions that deliberately excluded the middle class. How exactly does one build “political momentum” to center a global development agenda on a goal that is not the center of the development agenda of any major developing country? And why? That is for part II.
development  poverty  aid  post-2015_agenda  institution-building  emerging_markets  middle_class  governance  OECD_economies  global_governance  international_political_economy  international_organizations  IFIs  UN 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Nancy Birdsall - Latin America Left Behind: "It’s Inequality Stupid”? | Center For Global Development - March 2014
Since 1990, Latin America has not shared at all in the much-ballyhooed convergence of emerging markets with the advanced economies in the last two decades. Average per capita income in Latin America was approaching 30% of the average in the US in the early 1970s, but fell back to 20% in the last 2 decades, and is now about 25% of the level in the US. Even more worrisome, as shown here, is that Latin America’s income gap has widened with respect to other emerging market economies at similar levels of development. Meanwhile in average per capita income in Asia has increased from less than 15% of US per capita income in the late 1960s to 40% today. One theory is that Latin America is caught in a middle-income trap. More likely, given growing evidence of the effects of inequality on growth, is that the region is caught in an inequality trap — in which a high concentration of economic and political wealth and privilege rooted in its colonial origins and its longstanding dependence on commodity exports stifles opportunities for investment and innovation. The historical record suggests that high inequality in Latin America is not a consequence of low growth. But it does not follow that it is a cause; it could be that low growth and high inequality are outcomes of a common set of other factors. Whatever the specific nature of the relationship between growth and inequality, the following charts suggest they’re worth unpacking.
economic_history  post-WWII  development  Latin_America  emerging_markets  East_Asia  economic_growth  inequality 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Thorstensen, Fernandes Marçal, Ferraz - WTO x PTAs -- Where to Negotiate Trade and Currency :: SSRN June 16, 2014
Vera Thorstensen - São Paulo School of Economics (EESP) at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) -- Emerson Fernandes Marçal - Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV; Mackenzie Presbyterian University -- Lucas Ferraz - Sao Paulo School of Economics-FGV. -- Fourth Biennial Global Conference of the Society of International Economic Law (SIEL) Working Paper No. 2014/09. *--* The negotiations of mega agreements between the US and the Pacific countries (TPP) and between the US and the EU (TTIP) are raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. TPP and TTIP are proclaimed to be the designers of the rules for the XXI Century. Old trade instruments such as tariffs are said to be no more important for TTIP because tariffs are negligible among those partners but significant to for TPP. Another relevant agreement in negotiation is between the EU and Mercosul, where tariffs are the most important issue in discussion. The main purpose of this paper is to shows that tariff are important for all these agreements, not because of its nominal value, but because the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs are so significant that all concessions can be distorted by overvalued and by devaluated currencies. The article is divided into six sections: the first gives an introduction to the issue; the second explains the methodologies used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents some results for Brazil, US and China; the third summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication” and examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a basket of currencies (a virtual currency of the World) and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The fifth presents some estimates for the main PTAs. The conclusions are present in the last section. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  international_law  international_economics  law-and-economics  trade-agreements  tariffs  FX  global_imbalance  US_foreign_policy  China  Brazil  EU  Latin_America  South-South_economics  emerging_markets  capital_flows  international_monetary_system  FX-misalignment  prices  costs  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Fola Adeleke - Investor-State Arbitration and the Public Interest Regulation Theory :: SSRN June 16, 2014
University of the Witwatersrand - School of Law -- Fourth Biennial Global Conference of the Society of International Economic Law (SIEL) Working Paper No. 2014/12. *--* When South Africa decided late last year to terminate a number of bilateral investment agreements with European Union countries, it did so at a time when global regulatory governance has come under scrutiny for their disposition to the domestic economic policies of states and the idea of state sovereignty in the regulation of its own economic affairs is fast declining. The prevailing global regulatory governance regime institutionalizes neo-liberalism which has given birth to various economic institutions and rules including bilateral investment treaties (BITs). The policy interest behind BITs is to some extent the suspension of domestic regulation in the governance of foreign investment. With this suspension in place, the regulatory sphere is filled by a supra-national regime that is rigid and restrains state conduct. In this paper, I intend to apply the emerging legal framework of global administrative law (GAL) to investor state arbitration in order to dispel the resistance towards this dispute settlement mechanism found in BITs for its perceived inability to adequately handle disputes that deal with public interest issues that fall outside standard investment protection but are relevant to the resolution of the investment dispute. I propose the application of domestic law concepts in an international sphere and make the argument that a statutory interpretation based on administrative law principles anchors the BIT regime to the domestic policy space of states and builds up the much needed legitimacy for investor state arbitration. The focus of GAL on the procedural elements of administrative law enables the implementation of substantive norms of liberalized trade which also promotes the rule of law, encourage a broader range of social and economic actors to scrutinize decision making and promote a democratic element in global regulatory governance. This democratic element includes public participation, greater transparency as well as an interpretive approach founded on GAL principles. - Pages in PDF File: 52 -- Keywords: Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs), Global Administrative Law (GAL), Deference, Public Interest, Investment Arbitration - downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  international_law  international_economics  law-and-economics  South_Africa  EU  global_governance  global_economy  international_political_economy  international_finance  administrative_law  dispute_resolution  arbitration  neoliberalism  treaties  FDI  common_good  investment-bilateral_treaties  democracy  nation-state  national_interest  political_participation  business-and-politics  emerging_markets  investor-State_disputes  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Rodrigo Polanco - The Chilean Experience in South-South Trade and Investment Agreements :: SSRN July 29, 2014
University of Chile - Faculty of Law; World Trade Institute - University of Bern -- Fourth Biennial Global Conference of the Society of International Economic Law (SIEL) Working Paper No. 2014-26. *--* This paper analyzes the main features of Chilean trade and investment treaties, examining if there is a Chilean pattern in the regulation of trade and investment flows or if it is influenced by agreements signed by Chile with developed countries. The article also examines if there are differences between the treaties signed by Chile and other “Southern” developing countries and those negotiated with “Northern” developed economies, and if sustainable development concerns are part of the negotiations of trade and investment agreements by Chile. -- Number of Pages in PDF File: 29 -- Keywords: investment treaties, preferential trade agreements, investor-state arbitration, North-South agreements, South-South agreements, law and development, sustainable development, Chile. - downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  international_law  international_economics  Latin_America  Chile  trade-policy  trade-agreements  FDI  investment-bilateral_treaties  investor-State_disputes  capital_flows  South-South_economics  US_trade_agreements  US_foreign_policy  US_legal_system  law-and-economics  emerging_markets  sustainability  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Joseph Cottrell - Pari Passu Saga Series - Argentina — whom do you trust? | FT Alphaville - September 4, 2014
Outlines new ootion for non vulture fund investors -- a plan by Adam Lerrick for restructured bondholders to extricate themselves from the default simply by voting to kick Bank of New York out as their trustee. BNY would, under the plan, give way to another (probably Argentine) bank not subject to US jurisdiction. This bank then wouldn’t be bound by Judge Griesa’s order for payments to go through only with holdouts also being paid, thus allowing bondholders to get their coupons. Nor would there be the jiggery-pokery of swapping New York-law bonds for local-law. That would be this plan (click for PDF): Lerrick has a decade of experience with the terms of Argentine debt, having advised European retail bondholders in the restructuring of 2005. Some might kick themselves for not having thought of a few aspects of this plan. Ironically — for a saga which showed how a dormant piece of dry boilerplate became a powerful weapon of enforcement against a sovereign debtor — it works using standard, boilerplate, trust indenture terms. -- didn't download
capital_markets  emerging_markets  international_finance  international_law  sovereign_debt  US_legal_system  US_judiciary  payments_systems  fiduciaries  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Matias Vernengo NAKED KEYNESIANISM: Manufacturing matters - Jan 2013
Chart of distribution of manufacturing capacity over the centuries pre and post Industrial Revolution from Robert Allen -- Note that the West, narrowly defined as England the rest of Western Europe, what was to become the US and Russia (called for the whole period USSR) had a share of less than 20% in 1750, it had expanded to more than 80% on the eve of WW-I. If you add Australia, Canada and Latin America (which are all in Rest of the World, but are what Maddison would call Western offshoots), the numbers are even larger. Most of the changes were associated to the squeeze of China. And most of the recent changes are associated with expansion of China and East Asia (which includes Japan). We have not gone full circle, by the way. In other words, the process of development (or indutrialization in the center) went hand in hand with the process of underdevelopment (deindustrialization) in the periphery, and old lesson from a little book by Osvaldo Sunkel which is still worth reading. [1972 study of Latin American development and underdevelopment from 1750, tracking exports, FDI etc]
economic_history  economic_theory  economic_growth  development  emerging_markets  Latin_America  Great_Divergence  China  India  Industrial_Revolution  industrialization  manufacturing  exports  British_history  capitalism  18thC  19thC 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Matias Vernengo - NAKED KEYNESIANISM: Institutions, what institutions? - September 2014
Nice breakdown of theorists of causes of development and underdevelopment and problems of trying to catch up -- So if you believe most heterodox economists institutions are relevant, but not primarily those associated to the supply side; the ones linked to the demand side, in Keynesian fashion are more important than the mainstream admits. Poor countries that arrive late to the process of capitalist development cannot expand demand without limits since the imports of intermediary and capital goods cause recurrent balance of payments crises. The institutions that allow for the expansion of demand, including those that allow for higher wages to expand consumption and to avoid the external constraints, are and have been central to growth and development. The role of the State in creating and promoting the expansion of domestic markets, in the funding of research and development, and in reducing the barriers to balance of payments constraints, both by guarantying access to external markets (sometimes militarily, like in the Opium Wars) and reducing foreign access to domestic ones was crucial in the process of capitalist development. In this view, for example, what China did not have that England did, was not lack of secure property rights and the rule of law, but a rising bourgeoisie (capitalists) that had to compete to provide for a growing domestic market that had acquired a new taste (and hence explained expanding demand) for a set of new goods, like cotton goods from India, or china (porcelain) from… well China, as emphasized by economic historian Maxine Berg among others (for the role of consumption in the Industrial Revolution go here). Or simply put, China did not have a capitalist mode of production (for the concept of mode of production and capitalism go here). Again, I argued that Robert Allen’s view according to which high wages and cheap energy forced British producers to innovate to save labor, leading to technological innovation and growth, and the absence of those conditions in China led to stagnation is limited since it presupposes that firms adopt more productive technologies even without growing demand. -- see links
economic_history  economic_theory  economic_growth  17thC  18thC  19thC  20thC  development  emerging_markets  Latin_America  Great_Divergence  demand  consumer_demand  British_history  China  institutional_economics  institutional_change  institution-building  institutions  supply-side  demand-side  cultural_history  economic_culture  political_culture  industrialization  Industrial_Revolution  international_political_economy  international_monetary_system  balance_of_payments  state-building  rent-seeking  rentiers  commodities  links 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Looming Ahead - 5 Nobel Prize winners discuss their "biggest problem" of the future global economy -- Finance & Development, September 2014, Vol. 51, No. 3
Five Nobel Prize winners discuss what they each see as the biggest problem facing the global economy of the future -- George Akerlof -climate change; Krugman - demand side; Solow - secular stagnation in developed economies (if that happens, will and means to solve even catastrophic problems like climate won't be forthcoming) Michael Spence (inclusiveness of global economic development to allow adjustments that keep benefiting rich countries but extend beneficiaries of growth - stress on getting basics right like managing limited natural resources): Stiglitz - inequality -- downloaded pdf to Note
economic_theory  global_economy  political_economy  climate  stagnation  OECD_economies  emerging_markets  capitalism  demand  Great_Recession  Labor_markets  inequality  global_governance  international_political_economy  downloaded  EF-add 
august 2014 by dunnettreader
Unctad report - FDI into developing economies forecast to stall | FT. com June 2014
China set to become net exporter of FDI. Multinationals "reshoring" some employment and bringing back some of the $3T+ stashed overseas. Post Euro crisis FDI into Europe to pick up
global_economy  FDI  emerging_markets  OECD_economies  Eurozone  China  investment  tax_havens  off-shoring 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Prakash Loungani and Saurabh Mishra - Not Your Father's Service Sector -- Finance & Development, June 2014
A long-standing truism in California’s Silicon Valley is that “70 percent of hardware is software”—early recognition of the link between sales of computers and software services. It is a phenomenon that now extends beyond the computer industry. Services have become the glue that binds many manufacturing supply chains. ...Recognizing this interdependence, companies are shifting from “selling products to selling an integrated combination of products and services that deliver value,” a development that the academic literature refers to as the “servitization of manufacturing” .... Companies are more open today to the incorporation of products and services from other vendors if it helps them establish and maintain a relationship with their customers. To reap the benefits of these trends, even developing economies where manufacturing still looms large must develop state-of-the-art services. Such services are needed for manufacturing firms to connect to global value chains and develop competitiveness in more skill-intensive activities along the value chain. Some countries may be able to use their comparative advantage in labor costs to become exporters of some intermediate or final service products. In others, services may pose lower barriers to entry than capital-intensive industries or offer an easier route to employment for women than other available options. Countries such as Malaysia could take advantage of the globalization of services to escape a potential middle-income trap.
global_economy  supply_chains  services  trade  emerging_markets  globalization  manufacturing  exports  women-work 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Olivier Blanchard, Jonathan D Ostry - The multilateral approach to capital controls | vox - 11 December 2012
The IMF recently endorsed capital controls as useful policy responses to certain circumstances. This column explains the logic and the research that underpins the shift
international_finance  international_system  international_economics  international_organizations  capital_flows  emerging_markets  macroeconomics  macroprudential_policies  IMF 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Eduardo Levy Yeyati - Do capital controls work? | vox - 20 January 2011
The global crisis has reignited debate on the desirability of capital controls. This column examines evidence from Argentina and Chile and argues that capital controls can be effective, but that their effectiveness and efficiency varies. It adds that controls need to be considered as part of a macro-prudential toolkit to prevent asset inflation and overvaluation that is costly to revert in the down cycle. - Chile's controls on inward investment was basically a Tobin tax that worked as designed. Argentina has had so many moving parts and different objectives it's a bit of a dog's breakfast
capital_flows  emerging_markets  international_finance  Chile  Latin_America 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Peter Temin - Economic History and Economic Development: New Economic History in Retrospect and Prospect | NBER Working Paper - May 2014
Abstract -- I argue in this paper for more interaction between economic history and economic development. Both subfields study economic development; the difference is that economic history focuses on high-wage countries while economic development focuses on low-wage economies. My argument is based on recent research by Robert Allen, Joachim Voth and their colleagues. Voth demonstrated that Western Europe became a high-wage economy in the 14th century, using the European Marriage Pattern stimulated by the effects of the Black Death. This created economic conditions that led eventually to the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. Allen found that the Industrial Revolution resulted from high wages and low power costs. He showed that the technology of industrialization was adapted to these factor prices and is not profitable in low-wage economies. The cross-over to economic development suggests that demography affects destiny now as in the past, and that lessons from economic history can inform current policy decisions. This argument is framed by a description of the origins of the New Economic History, also known as Cliometrics, and a non-random survey of recent research emphasizing the emerging methodology of the New Economic History.
paper  paywall  economic_history  development  demography  OECD_economies  emerging_markets  Industrial_Revolution  Great_Divergence 
may 2014 by dunnettreader
Justin Yifu Lin and Kevin Lu - To attract private investment, infrastructure must be a new asset class. - Project Syndicate
....abandoning the view that infrastructure assets fit into the paradigm of traditional asset classes like equity, debt, or real estate. Infrastructure must be redefined as a new asset class, based on several considerations. For starters, there is the public-good element of many infrastructure projects, which demands contingent government obligations like universal coverage levels for basic services. In order to make such projects more appealing to private investors, economic externalities should be internalized, and a link should be established between the internal rate of return, which matters to a commercial investor, and the economic rate of return, which matters to society. Moreover, innovative mechanisms to supply new assets to investors would be needed – and that requires the creativity found and priced by markets. --The new asset class would need its own standardized risk/return profile, accounting, for example, for the political risks that public-sector involvement may imply and for the lower returns from infrastructure relative to traditional private equity. Moreover, the risks associated with the new asset class would change as projects progress from feasibility study to construction to operation, implying that each phase would attract different sources of funding. -- Another important consideration is the considerable technical expertise that infrastructure investments demand, which makes them more complex than most assets. Similarly, a specialized network of actors would be needed to ensure that intermediation of infrastructure transactions is efficient and cost-effective, instead of fragmented and slow, as it is now.
emerging_markets  international_political_economy  international_finance  capital_markets  infrastructure  investment  financial_innovation 
may 2014 by dunnettreader
Angus Deaton - The great escape from death and deprivation | vox , 20 March 2014
Overview of his book - The world has become healthier and wealthier since 1960, as measured by life expectancy and GDP per capita. In this column Angus Deaton introduces his new book and argues that the world is indeed a better place than it used to be, albeit with big setbacks, and that progress opens up vast inequalities.
books  economic_history  20thC  economic_growth  development  OECD_economies  emerging_markets  public_health  inequality  EF-add 
march 2014 by dunnettreader
Nauro F Campos, Stefan Dercon - The finance and growth nexus in low-income countries | vox March 2014
Financial development and growth have long been linked. This column argues that there remain fundamental lacunae in our understanding of the finance-growth nexus. Three main areas for future research are identified: aid, institutions and technology. DFID linked paper -- Five recent findings are worth mentioning. One is that the long-run effect of finance on growth is indeed positive and dominates the short-term effect that tends to be negative. This was first uncovered on a cross-country setting by Kaminsky and Schmukler (2003) and Loayza and Ranciere (2006) (see Campos et al. 2012 for within-country evidence.) The second is that the relationship may be non-linear. Beyond a certain threshold (calculated to be above 100% of GDP) finance is associated with negative growth (Berkes et al. 2012). A noteworthy third finding refers to distribution. Who gets credit matters. Household credit seems to have little growth payoffs, while private sector credit has large growth payoffs (see Beck, 2013, and references therein). Fourth, financial development reduces income inequality and exerts a disproportionally positive impact on the bottom quintile. One may think finance is pro-growth and pro-rich but evidence only supports the former (Beck et al. 2007). Fifth and finally, different financial liberalisation policies have contrasting effects on income inequality. For instance, Delis et al. (forthcoming) reports that capital stringency and supervisory power regulation lower inequality, while market discipline and activity restrictions may exacerbate it.
financial_sector_development  emerging_markets  capital_markets  banking  microfinance  capital_flows  financial_regulation  financial_system  financialization  financial_innovation  EF-add 
march 2014 by dunnettreader
Richard Marshall -Perspectives book series review - why fight poverty etc » 3:AM Magazine Feb 2014
Series editor Diane Coyle summarises the series nicely when she writes: ‘Perspectives are essays on big ideas by leading writers, each given free rein and a modest word limit to reframe an issue of great contemporary interest.’ Reading them invites peppy fustigation or pash. *--* (1) Julia Unwin’s ‘Why Fight Poverty’ argues that the UK must solve its poverty crisis and focuses on the emotional and sentimental thinking that ultimately provides obstacles for tackling the problem. This is hard-headed pugnacious stuff. *--* (2) Jim O’Neil’s ‘The BRIC Road to Growth’ warns that emerging markets are not an old story. The shift from the dominance of USA and Europe has happened. *--* (3) Anne Powers ‘Phoenix Cities’ is a study of regeneration ideas from Europe and the USA. Bridget Rosewell writes about ‘Reinventing London.’ *--* (4) Rediscovering Growth: After the Crisis’ by Andrew Sentance begins by asking what has happened to economic growth since the North Atlantic crisis in the stricken economies affected by the crisis. It’s an interesting question, and one that has in the background worries that without growth governments won’t be able to contain public borrowing, reduce their debts nor establish a direction for economic recovery.
books  reviews  public_policy  global_economy  global_governance  Great_Recession  emerging_markets  economic_growth  sovereign_debt  austerity  urban_development  urban_politics  London  education  poverty  Poor_Laws  EF-add 
february 2014 by dunnettreader
Adair Turner criticizes economists' adherence to the belief that the benefits of capital-account liberalization outweigh the costs. - Project Syndicate
If volatility becomes extreme, some countries may consider imposing constraints on capital outflows, which the International Monetary Fund now agrees might be useful in specific circumstances. But the fundamental question is how to manage the impact of short-term capital inflows. Until recently, economic orthodoxy considered that question invalid. Financial liberalization was lauded because it enabled capital to flow to where it would be used most productively, increasing national and global growth. But empirical support for the benefits of capital-account liberalization is weak. The most successful development stories in economic history – Japan and South Korea – featured significant domestic financial repression and capital controls, which accompanied several decades of rapid growth.
emerging_markets  capital_flows  investment  FDI  contagion  FX 
february 2014 by dunnettreader
Dani Rodrik - the fundamental lessons about emerging economies that economists have refused to learn. - Project Syndicate Feb 2014
The deeper problem lies with the excessive financialization of the global economy that has occurred since the 1990’s. The policy dilemmas that have resulted – rising inequality, greater volatility, reduced room to manage the real economy – will continue to preoccupy policymakers in the decades ahead. It is true, but unhelpful, to say that governments have only themselves to blame for having recklessly rushed into this wild ride. It is now time to think about how the world can create a saner balance between finance and the real economy
emerging_markets  international_finance  international_political_economy  capital_flows  financial_sector_development  FX  financialization 
february 2014 by dunnettreader
Nathan Sussman and Yishay Yafeh - Institutional Reforms, Financial Development and Sovereign Debt: Britain 1690-1790 | JSTOR: The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 66, No. 4 (Dec., 2006), pp. 906-935
We revisit the evidence on the relations between institutions, the cost of government debt, and financial development in Britain (1690-1790) and find that interest rates remained high and volatile for four decades after the Glorious Revolution, partly due to wars and instability; British interest rates co-moved with those in Holland; Debt per capita remained lower in Britain than in Holland until around 1780; and Britain did not borrow at lower rates than European countries with more limited protection of property rights. We conclude that, in the short run, institutional reforms are not rewarded by financial markets. -- reasonably up to date bibliography on institutional_economics, behavioral_economics, financial markets (Shleifer et al), emerging markets, economic history of 17thC 18thC 19thC re industrial revolution, crowding_out and public finance -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  jstor  economic_history  political_history  finance_capital  capital_markets  capital_flows  sovereign_debt  17thC  18thC  British_history  Dutch  France  public_finance  taxes  interest_rates  institutional_economics  institutional_change  North-Weingast  constitutionalism  Absolutism  behavioral_economics  emerging_markets  international_finance  bibliography  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2014 by dunnettreader
Willem Buiter, 10 January 2014 - Why fiscal sustainability matters | vox
Fiscal sustainability has become a hot topic as a result of the European sovereign debt crisis, but it matters in normal times, too. This column argues that financial sector reforms are essential to ensure fiscal sustainability in the future. Although emerging market reforms undertaken in the aftermath of the financial crises of the 1990s were beneficial, complacency is not warranted. In the US, political gridlock must be overcome to reform entitlements and the tax system. In the Eurozone, creating a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism should be a priority.
fiscal_policy  sovereign_debt  financial_system  banking  Eurozone  US_economy  US_politics  emerging_markets  Great_Recession  EF-add 
january 2014 by dunnettreader
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