dunnettreader + decision_theory   22

Henry Farrell - Privatization as State Transformation — Crooked Timber - Sept 2016
This account helps explain not only why key parts of the state have become privatized or semi-privatized, being put out to private operators, but why states are increasingly relying on private systems of ordering. It shows how the privatization of governance spans the international sphere as well as domestic politics, since international and cross-national forms of regulation have sometimes been partly privatized, and sometimes structured so as to provide private entities with new opportunities to challenge government decisions. Finally, it provides the basis for a specific normative critique of privatization. Here, I do not try to evaluate whether the economy works worse, or better, after privatization than it did in an era when the state exercised control through ownership rather than regulation. Instead, more simply, I show that privatization did not work as its enthusiasts argued and believed that it would, looking to evaluate it in terms of its own promises. Rather than pushing back the state, and replacing political inefficiency with the competitive disciplines of the market, it has replaced one form of political control with another. -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
competition-political  political_science  efficiency  political_change  downloaded  international_organizations  international_political_economy  IR-domestic_politics  hierarchy  accountability  reform-political  competition  political_economy  risk_management  paper  government-forms  political_sociology  political_order  politics-and-money  political_discourse  privatization  organizations  decision_theory  bureaucracy  political_culture 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Scott Aikin - Citizen Skeptic: Cicero’s Academic Republicanism (pages 275–285) | Symposion. Theoretical and Applied Inquiries in Philosophy and Social Sciences July 2015
ABSTRACT: The skeptical challenge to politics is that if knowledge is in short supply and it is a condition for the proper use of political power, then there is very little just politics. Cicero’s Republicanism is posed as a program for political legitimacy wherein both citizens and their states are far from ideal. The result is a form of what is termed negative conservatism, which shows political gridlock in a more positive light. - Assistant Professor of Philosophy at Vanderbilt University. He works primarily in epistemology and ancient philosophy. He is the author of Epistemology and the Regress Problem (Routledge 2011) and Evidentialism and the Will to Believe (Bloomsbury 2014), and the co-author (with Robert B. Talisse) of Why We Argue (And How We Should) (Routledge, 2014), Reasonable Atheism (Prometheus Books, 2011), and Pragmatism: A Guide for the Perplexed (Continuum Books, 2008). - downloaded via iPhone to Dbox
ancient_Greece  information-asymmetric  public_choice  downloaded  intellectual_history  checks-and-balances  institutions  decision_theory  ancient_philosophy  scepticism-Academic  constitutionalism  ancient_Rome  article  republicanism  epistemology-social  political_philosophy  Roman_Republic  Cicero  political_culture 
may 2016 by dunnettreader
Daniel Dennett - Information, Evolution, and intelligent Design - Video | 3quarksdaily - August 2015
2 YouTube videos, 1st (1 hour+) of Dennett's presentation and then the Q&A -- looks like it was at RI Institute. He's NOT dealing with Intelligent Design initial caps.
speech  video  Dennett  human_nature  epistemology-social  evolution-as-model  evolution-social  mind  cognition  information  information_theory  information-intermediaries  design  social_process  decision_theory 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Richard Bourke and Raymond Geuss, eds. - Political Judgement: Essays for John Dunn (2009) | Cambridge University Press
From Plato to Max Weber, the attempt to understand political judgement took the form of a struggle to define the relationship between politics and morals. (...) explores a series of related problems in philosophy and political thought, raising fundamental questions about democracy, trust, the nature of statesmanship, and the relations between historical and political judgement. (...) reconsiders some classic debates in political theory – about equality, authority, responsibility and ideology – Introduction **--** Part I. The Character of Political Judgement: *-* 1. What is political judgement? Raymond Geuss *-* 2. Sticky judgement and the role of rhetoric Victoria McGeer and Philip Pettit *-* 3. Theory and practice: the revolution in political judgement Richard Bourke **--** Part II. Trust, Judgement and Consent: *-* 4. On trusting the judgement of our rulers Quentin Skinner *-* 5. Adam Smith's history of law and government as political theory Istvan Hont *-* 6. Marxism in translation: critical reflections on Indian radical thought Sudipta Kaviraj **--** Part III. Rationality and Judgement: *-* 7. Pericles' unreason Geoffrey Hawthorn
8. Accounting for human actions: individual agency and political judgement in Montaigne's Essais Biancamaria Fontana *-* 9. Nehru's judgement Sunil Khilnani **--** Part IV. Democracy and Modern Political Judgement: *-* 10. Democracy, equality and redistribution Adam Przeworski *-* 11. Democracy and terrorism Richard Tuck -- excerpt from Intro downloaded pdf to Note
books  kindle-available  intellectual_history  political_history  political_philosophy  political_economy  judgment-political  public_policy  political_culture  ancient_Greece  Europe-Early_Modern  16thC  18thC  Montaigne  Smith  agency  decision_theory  democracy  equality  redistribution  political_participation  public_opinion  rhetoric-political  Marxism  India  colonialism  post-colonial  terrorism  legitimacy  authority  moral_philosophy  responsibility  accountability  downloaded 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Jag Bhalla - Reason Is Larger Than Science | Big Think - May 2015
by Jag Bhalla “Reason is larger than science.” So Leon Wieseltier reminds us (while defending the humanities against Steven Pinker’s science cheerleading). 1.… -- lots of links -- nice use of Wieseltier while noting where W goes off the rails
reason  rationality  rationality-economics  decision_theory  scientism  humanities  education-higher  disciplines  links  Instapaper  from instapaper
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Caroline W. Lee - Do-It-Yourself Democracy: The Rise of the Public Engagement Industry (Jan 2015) - Oxford University Press
Citizen participation has undergone a radical shift since anxieties about "bowling alone" seized the nation in the 1990s. Many pundits and observers have cheered America's twenty-first century civic renaissance-an explosion of participatory innovations in public life. Invitations to "have your say!" and "join the discussion!" have proliferated. But has the widespread enthusiasm for maximizing citizen democracy led to real change? Sociologist Caroline W. Lee examines how participatory innovations have reshaped American civic life over the past two decades. Lee looks at the public engagement industry that emerged to serve government, corporate, and nonprofit clients seeking to gain a handle on the increasingly noisy demands of their constituents and stakeholders. The beneficiaries of new forms of democratic empowerment are not only humble citizens, but also the engagement experts who host the forums. Does it matter if the folks deepening democracy are making money at it? How do they make sense of the contradictions inherent in their roles? In investigating public engagement practitioners' everyday anxieties and larger worldviews, we see reflected the strange meaning of power in contemporary institutions. New technologies and deliberative practices have democratized the ways in which organizations operate, but Lee argues that they have also been marketed and sold as tools to facilitate cost-cutting, profitability, and other management goals - and that public deliberation has burdened everyday people with new responsibilities without delivering on its promises of empowerment.
books  kindle-available  US_society  US_politics  US_government  local_government  local_politics  democracy  democracy_deficit  political_participation  firms-organization  hierarchy  decision_theory  NGOs  deliberation-public  public_policy  public_goods  public-private_partnerships  political_culture 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Pei Wang - A General Theory of Intelligence [an e-book under development] | Home
This eBook is an attempt to establish a theory that identifies the commonality within various forms intelligence, including human intelligence, computer intelligence, animal intelligence, alien intelligence, group intelligence, etc. -- NARS (Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System) - Most of the existing AI inference works with semi-axiomatic systems, which attempt to make partial extension or revision of mathematical logic, while keeping the other parts. What AI really needs are non-axiomatic systems, which do not assume the sufficiency of knowledge and resources in any aspect of the system. NARS is a concrete example of non-axiomatic system which uses a formal language "Narsese" to represent goals, actions, and beliefs.The basic unit of the language is term, which can be thought of as the name or label of a concept in the system. (..) The meaning of a term is determined by its extension and intension, which are the collection of the inheritance relations between this term and other terms, obtained from the experience of the system. NARS includes three variants of the inheritance relation: similarity (symmetric inheritance), implication (derivability), and equivalence (symmetric implication). (..)The meaning of a compound term is partially determined by its logical relations with its components, and partially by the system's experience on the compound term as a whole. Event is a special type of statement that have a time-dependent truth-value. Operation is a special type of event that can occur by the system's decision. Goal is a special type of event, that the system is attempting to realize, by carrying out certain operations. Beside goals to be achieved, NARS can accept tasks that are knowledge to be absorbed and questions to be answered. (..)If a event is judged to imply the achieving of a goal, then the desirability of the event is increased, and the system will also evaluate its plausibility(..). When an event is both desirable and plausible, the system will make the decision to turn the event into a goal to be actually pursued. The basic function of inference rules in NARS is to derive new beliefs from current beliefs.
etexts  books  intelligence  artificial_intelligence  mind  systems-complex_adaptive  systems-reflexive  systems_theory  epistemology-social  cognition  cognition-social  agent-based_models  logic  inference  decision_theory  rationality  rationality-bounded  learning  website  EF-add 
november 2014 by dunnettreader
Ansar, Flyvbjerg, Budzier, Lunn - Should We Build More Large Dams? The Actual Costs of Hydropower Megaproject Development (Energy Policy, March 2014, pp.1-14.) :: SSRN
Atif Ansar - University of Oxford - Blavatnik School of Government -- Bent Flyvbjerg - University of Oxford - Said Business School -- Alexander Budzier - University of Oxford - Saïd Business School.-- Daniel Lunn - University of Oxford - Department of Statistics *--* A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the “outside view” or “reference class forecasting” based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology. We find overwhelming evidence that budgets are systematically biased below actual costs of large hydropower dams — excluding inflation, substantial debt servicing, environmental, and social costs. Using the largest and most reliable reference data of its kind and multilevel statistical techniques applied to large dams for the first time, we were successful in fitting parsimonious models to predict cost and schedule overruns. The outside view suggests that in most countries large hydropower dams will be too costly in absolute terms and take too long to build to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return unless suitable risk management measures outlined in this paper can be affordably provided. Policymakers, particularly in developing countries, are advised to prefer agile energy alternatives that can be built over shorter time horizons to energy megaprojects. - Number of Pages in PDF File: 14 - Keywords: Large hydropower dams, Schedule & cost estimates, Cost benefit forecasting, Reference class forecasting, Outside -- didn't download
article  SSRN  development  energy  IFIs  business-and-politics  statistics  social_sciences  methodology-quantitative  decision_theory  international_finance  institutional_economics  business-forecasts 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
JOEL ISAAC -- DONALD DAVIDSON AND THE ANALYTIC REVOLUTION IN AMERICAN PHILOSOPHY, 1940–1970 (2013). | The Historical Journal, 56, pp 757-779 - Cambridge Journals Online - Abstract
JOEL ISAAC - Christ's College, Cambridge -- Histories of analytic philosophy in the United States have typically focused on the reception of logical positivism, and especially on responses to the work of the Vienna Circle. Such accounts often call attention to the purportedly positivist-inspired marginalization of normative concerns in American philosophy: according to this story, the overweening positivist concern for logic and physics as paradigms of knowledge displaced questions of value and social relations. This article argues that the reception framework encourages us to mistake the real sources of the analytic revolution in post-war philosophy. These are to be found in debates about intentional action and practical reasoning – debates in which ‘normative’ questions of value and social action were in fact central. Discussion of these topics took place within a transatlantic community of Wittgensteinians, ordinary languages philosophers, logical empiricists, and decision theorists. These different strands of ‘analytical’ thinking were bound together into a new philosophical mainstream not by a positivist alliance with logic and physics, but by the rapid development of the mathematical and behavioural sciences during the Second World War and its immediate aftermath. An illustrative application of this new framework for interpreting the analytic revolution is found in the early career and writings of Donald Davidson.
article  paywall  intellectual_history  20thC  analytical_philosophy  Logical_Positivism  Wittgenstein  ordinary_language_philosophy  behavioralism  social_sciences-post-WWII  decision_theory  mathematics  logic  empiricism  US  cultural_history  academia  EF-add 
august 2014 by dunnettreader
Greg Hill - "FROM HAYEK TO KEYNES: G.L.S. Shackle and Our Ignorance of the Future" - Critical Review (2004) | bepress
Greg Hill, City of Seattle -- G.L.S. Shackle stood at the historic crossroads where the economics of Hayek and Keynes collided. Shackle fused these opposing lines of thought in a macroeconomic theory that draws Keynesian conclusions from Austrian premises. In Shackle’s scheme of thought, the power to imagine alternative courses of action releases decision makers from the web of predictable causation. But the continuous stream of spontaneous and unpredictable choices that originate in the subjective and disparate orientations of individual agents denies us the possibility of rational expectations, and therewith the logical coherence of market equilibrium through time. -- Suggested Citation - Greg Hill. "FROM HAYEK TO KEYNES: G.L.S. Shackle and Our Ignorance of the Future" Critical Review (2004). Available at: http://works.bepress.com/greg_hill/5 -- downloaded pdf to Note
intellectual_history  economic_theory  macroeconomics  equilibrium  rational_expectations  decision_theory  Keynesian  Hayek  Austrian_economics  probability  uncertainty  causation-social  determinism  downloaded  EF-add 
july 2014 by dunnettreader
Ronald J. Allen, Brian Leiter - Naturalized Epistemology and the Law of Evidence :: SSRN - Virginia Law Review, 2001
This paper looks at important developments in epistemology, and demonstrates that naturalized epistemology provides a firm conceptual foundation for much research into law of evidence. These developments in epistemology have not been much noted in legal scholarship, despite their importance in philosophy and their coincidence with some widely shared approaches to evidence scholarship. This article is a partial antidote for the unproductive fascination in some quarters of the legal academy with "postmodern" conceptions of knowledge and truth and to the even more common search by the legal professoriat for algorithms that provide answers to important legal questions, such as Bayesian decision theory or micro-economics. The article argues that the naturalistic turn in epistemology of the past thirty years (especially that branch known as social epistemology) provides the appropriate theoretical framework for the study of evidence, as it does for virtually any enterprise concerned with the empirical adequacy of its theories and the truth-generating capacity of its methodologies. It also provides a way to conceptualize and evaluate specific rules of evidence, and concomitantly explains what most evidence scholars do, regardless of their explicit philosophical commitments. For the great bulk of evidentiary scholars, this article should solidify the ground beneath their feet. -- Number of Pages in PDF File: 78 - large bibliography -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  SSRN  philosophy_of_law  epistemology-social  analytical_philosophy  evidence  naturalism  sociology_of_knowledge  methodology  decision_theory  law-and-economics  Bayesian  bibliography  downloaded  EF-add 
july 2014 by dunnettreader
Scott J. Shapiro - Authority (2000) :: SSRN
C 2000

Stanford/Yale Jr. Faculty Forum Research Paper 00-05; Cardozo Law School, Public Law Research Paper No. 24 -- the so-called "paradox of authority" was first developed in the late 18th Century by the anarchist theorist William Godwin and later popularized by Robert Paul Wolff in the 1960's. Their aim was to demonstrate that legitimate authority is impossible. As they argued, the problem with all authorities is that they claim the right to demand obedience even when they are wrong. However, people should never act in ways they believe to be wrong. Hence, people should never recognize the right of authorities to demand their obedience. This paper discusses the many "solutions" that have been offered on authority's behalf. The responses fall roughly into two groups: those who believe that problems arise due to certain naive views about the nature of authority and rationality and that revision in our understanding is required, and those who maintain that the puzzle can be unraveled without any radical changes. --, the paper accepts that the paradox (or, as it is shown, paradoxes) of authority cannot be solved within standard theories of rationality and morality. Which revisions are necessary, it is claimed, depends on one's underlying theory of legitimacy.
paper  SSRN  political_philosophy  moral_philosophy  authority  obligation  legitimacy  instrumentalist  autonomy  action-theory  rationality  decision_theory  deliberation-public  paradox  anarchy  EF-add 
july 2014 by dunnettreader
Jeremy Waldron - A Religious View of the Foundations of International Law (2011) :: SSRN - Charles E. Test Lectures in the James Madison Program at Princeton University
NYU School of Law, Public Law Research Paper No. 11-29 -- Lecture 1 begins from a specifically Christian point of view, though it also addresses the difficulties of sustaining a viewpoint of this kind in a multi-faith and indeed increasingly secular world. Lecture 2 considers nationhood, sovereignty, and the basis for the division of the world into separate political communities. A religious approach to international order will endorse the position of most modern international jurists that sovereign independence is not to be made into an idol or a fetish, and that the tasks of order and peace in the world are not to be conceived as optional for sovereigns. But sovereigns also have their own mission, ordering particular communities of men and women. Lecture 3 considers the rival claims of natural law and positivism regarding sources of international law. The most telling part of natural law jurisprudence from Aquinas to Finnis has always been its insistence on the specific human need for positive law. This holds true in the international realm as much as in any realm of human order - perhaps more so, because law has to do its work unsupported by the overwhelming power of a particular state. Lecture 3 addresses, from a religious point of view, the sources of law in the international realm: treaty, convention, custom, precedent, and jurisprudence. It will focus particularly on the sanctification of treaties. -- No of Pages : 73 -- Keywords: customary international law, international law, ius cogens, nationalism, natural law, positivism, public reason, religion, self-determination, sovereignty, treaties -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  philosophy_of_law  international_law  natural_law  positivism-legal  IR  IR_theory  diplomacy  international_organizations  legal_system  international_system  sovereignty  nation-state  nationalism  public_sphere  liberalism-public_reason  deliberation-public  decision_theory  customary_law  self-determination  national_interest  national_security  responsibility_to_protect  treaties  universalism  precedent  conflict_of_laws  dispute_resolution  human_rights  community  trust  alliances  politics-and-religion  jurisprudence  jurisdiction  downloaded  EF-add 
july 2014 by dunnettreader
Jeremy Waldron - The Concept and the Rule of Law (2008) :: SSRN - Georgia Law Review, Forthcoming
NYU School of Law, Public Law Research Paper No. 08-5 -- This article explores and connects two issues: (1) the relation between the Rule of Law (or legality) and the work we do in general jurisprudence on the concept of law; and (2) the distinction between conceptions of the Rule of Law that emphasize certainty, rules, and predictability and conceptions of the Rule of Law that also emphasize procedure and argument, even when legal argumentation detracts from the certainty emphasized the first set of conceptions. It argues (1) in favour of a more demanding understanding of what law is (informed by the ideal of the Rule of Law) and against "casual positivism" that takes almost any instance of centralized command and control as a legal system. And it argues (2) in favour of a procedural and argumentative conception of the Rule of Law. It connects the two arguments by observing that casual positivism is commonly associated with an impoverished rule-oriented understanding of the Rule of Law is associated commonly; and (following Dworkin and MacCormick) it suggests that a jurisprudence that emphasizes the role of legal argumentation and the institutions that sponsor it, will inevitably bring our conceptions of law and legality very close together. -- Number of Pages in PDF File: 67 -- Keywords: general jurisprudence, Hart, legality, positivism, procedure, Rule of Law -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  SSRN  philosophy_of_law  political_philosophy  legal_validity  rule_of_law  positivism-legal  procedure-legal  Hart  institutions  decision_theory  governmentality  competition  downloaded  EF-add 
july 2014 by dunnettreader
Chris D. Frith and Tania Singer - The Role of Social Cognition in Decision Making | JSTOR: Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences, Vol. 363, No. 1511 (Dec. 12, 2008), pp. 3875-3886
Successful decision making in a social setting depends on our ability to understand the intentions, emotions and beliefs of others. The mirror system allows us to understand other people's motor actions and action intentions. 'Empathy' allows us to understand and share emotions and sensations with others. 'Theory of mind' allows us to understand more abstract concepts such as beliefs or wishes in others. In all these cases, evidence has accumulated that we use the specific neural networks engaged in processing mental states in ourselves to understand the same mental states in others. However, the magnitude of the brain activity in these shared networks is modulated by contextual appraisal of the situation or the other person. An important feature of decision making in a social setting concerns the interaction of reason and emotion. We consider four domains where such interactions occur: our sense of fairness, altruistic punishment, trust and framing effects. In these cases, social motivations and emotions compete with each other, while higher-level control processes modulate the interactions of these low-level biases. -- didn't download -- large references list
article  jstor  social_theory  cognition-social  decision_theory  altruism  fairness  trust  framing_effects  emotions  neuroscience  mind-theory_of  empathy  bibliography  EF-add 
may 2014 by dunnettreader
Eduardo Fernández-Huerga - The Economic Behavior of Human Beings: The Institutional/Post-Keynesian Model | JSTOR: Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. 42, No. 3 (Sep., 2008), pp. 709-726
This paper attempts to present the basic features that would define a model of behavior suited to an institutional and post-Keynesian approach. To facilitate explanation, human behavior is divided into three phases: motivation, cognition and reasoning and decision-making. Motivation appears as a process directed toward the satisfaction of a complex structure of various needs and wants. The role of emotions and the social and cognitive aspects of motivation are recognized. Moreover, it is also recognized that human beings have limited cognitive and rational capacities, and it is accepted that they are potentially creative. Partly as a consequence of that, cognition becomes a social act and knowledge of reality is subject to fundamental uncertainty. Finally, human rationality (or intelligence) is associated with a search for good solutions, and it includes elements of procedural rationality, creativity and emotional rationality. The role of habits and institutions in all these phases is stressed. -- good references -- didn't download
article  jstor  social_theory  economic_theory  economic_sociology  institutional_economics  Post-Keynesian  behavioral_economics  cognition-social  rationality-economics  creativity  uncertainty  motivation  decision_theory  bibliography  EF-add 
may 2014 by dunnettreader
Nicholas Greenwood OnufSovereignty: Outline of a Conceptual History (1991) | Alternatives: Global, Local, Political on JSTOR
Sovereignty: Outline of a Conceptual History
Nicholas Greenwood Onuf
Alternatives: Global, Local, Political
Vol. 16, No. 4 (Fall 1991), pp. 425-446
Published by: Sage Publications, Inc.
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40644726
article  intellectual_history  political_philosophy  bibliography  16thC  17thC  Bodin  20thC  democracy  ir-history  IR  sovereignty  19thC  nation-state  decision_theory  18thC  government-forms  downloaded 
september 2013 by dunnettreader

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