dunnettreader + crisis   4

Jordà, Schularick and Taylor - Betting the House - NBER working paper - SSRN
They look at link between loose monetary policy, real estate lending, housing bubbles and financial instability. No surprise, they're correlated. Their added twist is to note that the same egfect can be produced by low intetest rates in effect "imported" by countries maintaining fixed exchange rates even if their domestic economic management is kosher - in a way, importing a business cycle snd misallocation of investment. The effect of these correlations to produce financial instability has increased over the decades. (undoubtedly exacerbated by the push to open capital accounts) SSRN version posted simultaneously with NBER version on SSRN - downloaded pdf to iPhone
capital_flows  business_cycles  credit  21stc  interest_rates  19thc  financial  crisis  financialization  monetary_policy  20thc  paper  asset  prices  bubbles  globalization  Pocket  real_estate  FX  SSRN  downloaded 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Eric Rauchway, review - Martin Wolf, The Shifts and the Shocks (2014) | TLS Jan 2015
... his analysis, which holds that we knew how to avoid, counter and cure these troubles; we have simply – largely out of wilful ignorance and lack of courage – failed to do more than the barest minimum of what was necessary. Governments, banks and international institutions did “just enough, almost too late” to prevent the worst possible result, which would have been a note-for-note replay of the 1930s including a slide into fascism and world war. But having done no more than avoid world-historic catastrophe, we find ourselves mired in a dim morass of our own making, with no sunlit uplands in sight. Wolf offers a persuasive account that is also clear, though he relies on no single factor but several: hence the title of the book. It took both long-term shifts and a series of shocks to cause a crisis of such magnitude. Our world was born in the end of the Cold War. With capitalism triumphant, the victors liberalized their economies and so did the Communist nations, particularly China. Yet all was not well in this brave new world; international finance and trade threatened the stability of smaller, emerging economies, as the crises of the 1990s demonstrated.
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january 2015 by dunnettreader

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