dunnettreader + complexity   33

J Oldfather, S Gissler & D Ruffino - Bank Complexity: Is Size Everything? | FRB: FEDS Notes: July 2016
Jeremy Oldfather, Stefan Gissler, and Doriana Ruffino - Can we measure the complexity of large banks by comparing their balance sheets? The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) acknowledges that we cannot, but it stops short of defining alternative non-balance-sheet measures.1 In this note, we propose a network-based analysis to study the structural complexity of banks through publicly available data on the structure of large U.S. banks. We show that our analysis is also informative more broadly for tailoring bank resolution plans. - interesting use of network graphs - downloaded to Tab S2
paper  Fed  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  capital_adequacy  banking-universal  bank_holding_cos  networks-architecture  networks-financial  risk_management  complexity  downloaded 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Peter Taylor - A Short Response to Lynch’s Counter-Criticisms| Social Epistemology Review and Reply Collective (2016)
Last in series of Lynch paper, Taylor comment, Lynch response and Taylor counter comment Taylor (U Mass Boston) is apparently even more disdainful than Lynch of Fuller, but he's sceptical of the Darwinian "selection" model (not the "natural' part apparently) and would go after Fuller without being completely wedded to Darwin, whereas Lynch sees questioning Darwinian basis of emerging multilevel evolutionary process as just begging for the sort of unholy alliance between fundies and "prigressive" apocalyptic types like Fuller. Downloaded the 4 pieces. (1) Lynch, William T. “Darwinian Social Epistemology: Science and Religion as Evolutionary Byproducts Subject to Cultural Evolution.” Social Epistemology Review and Reply Collective 5, no. 2 (2016): 26-68. (2) Taylor, Peter J. “Questioning the Darwinism that Lynch Presents as a Viable Basis for Humans to Pursue Science.” Social Epistemology Review and Reply Collective 5, no. 2 (2016): 85-87. (3) Lynch, William T. “Complexity, Natural Selection, and Cultural Evolution.” Social Epistemology Review and Reply Collective 5, no. 3 (2016): 64-72.
evolution  sociology_of_knowledge  forum  Darwinism  intelligent_design  epigenetics  downloaded  gene-culture_coevolution  complexity  sociology_of_religion  genetics  emergence  sociology_of_science_ 
may 2016 by dunnettreader
Lawrence Cahoone - The Modern Intellectual Tradition: From Descartes to Derrida | The Great Courses
Modern Intellectual Tradition: From Descartes to Derrida
Professor of Philosophy at Holy Cross - PhD from SUNY
36 lectures, starting with 17thC scientific revolution
He devotes a lot to the period starting with fin de sciècle (analytic, pragmatism, Whitehead)
- has a whole lecture on Heidegger's rejection of "humanism" after 1 on existentialism and the Frankfurt School
- but entre dieux guerres and post WWII isn't a total downer - an entire lecture on Dewey
- though Derrida sounds like the endpoint, he's more the endpoint of the trend through Heidegger's version of phenomenology
- he then turns to Rorty's "end of philosophy" and says, not so fast
- he works through several themes from earlier that are re-emerging post-postmodern
- he goes back to Cassirer, Whitehead and the pragmatists - different orientations but working within what he terms pragmatic realism - with emergence and complexity part of the realist story
- my main question re that narrative arc is where is Deluze?
- but the whole show gets uniformly rave reviews - except that he works off a teleprompter which some thought was awkward - looks like audio download is the way to go
analytical_philosophy  18thC  Putnam  pragmatism  existentialism  Marxist  Wittgenstein  technology  Quine  mind  Frege  phenomenology  Frankfurt_School  Marx  Habermas  science-and-religion  Romanticism  philosophy_of_history  Spinoza  Husserl  buy  Sartre  epistemology  Hume  Rorty  emergence  neo-Kantian  biocultural_evolution  humanism  intellectual_history  dualism  James_William  Enlightenment_Project  historiography-Marxist  German_Idealism  Enlightenment  17thC  Hegel  Nietzsche  political_philosophy  Logical_Positivism  mind-body  video  Whitehead  individualism  French_Enlightenment  empiricism  modernity  Derrida  ordinary_language_philosophy  anti-foundationalism  20thC  Kierkegaard  philosophy_of_language  Heidegger  human_nature  truth  Descartes  Kant  complexity  philosophy_of_science  Berkeley  postmodern  philosophy_of_religion  21stC  19thC  Cassirer  metaphysics  Dewey  self  audio  anti-humanism  courses  Locke 
april 2016 by dunnettreader
Michael Strevens interview with Richard Marshall - Bigger Than Chaos - 3AM
Interview by Richard Marshall. Michael Strevens works on the philosophy of science, where his interests include explanation, complex systems, probability,…
Instapaper  interview  philosophy_of_science  complexity  complex_adaptive_systems  emergence  from instapaper
march 2016 by dunnettreader
Philip Ball - Why story is used to explain symphonies and sport matches - Aeon
It’s a movie classic. The lovers are out for a walk when a villain dashes out of his house and starts fighting the man. The woman takes refuge in the house;…
neuroscience  evo_psych  narrative  complexity  causation  cognitive_bias  cognition  cognition-social  epistemology-naturalism  Instapaper  from instapaper
november 2015 by dunnettreader
Design Arguments for the Existence of God | Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Table of Contents -- 1. The Classical Versions of the Design Argument -- a. Scriptural Roots and Aquinas's Fifth Way -- b.The Argument from Simple Analogy -- c. Paley's Watchmaker Argument -- d. Guided Evolution **--** 2. Contemporary Versions of the Design Argument. -- a. The Argument from. -- b. Irreducible Biochemical Complexity -- c. The Argument from Biological Information. -- d. The Fine-Tuning Arguments -- (i) The Argument from Suspicious Improbability -- (ii) The Confirmatory Argument. **--** 3. The Scientifically Legitimate Uses of Design Inferences. **--** 4.References and Further Reading -- downloaded pdf to Note
intellectual_history  ancient_philosophy  medieval_philosophy  17thC  18thC  19thC  20thC  philosophy_of_religion  theology  natural_religion  rational_religion  Newtonianism  creation  design-nature  God-existence  God-attributes  Aquinas  analogy  Paley  complexity  cosmology  cosmological-fine-tuning  intelligent_design  creationism  natural_philosophy  evolution  Bible-as-history  bibliography  downloaded 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Giovanni Dosi, et al -Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Complex Evolving Economies -- 2013 :: SSRN
Giovanni Dosi, Giorgio Fagiolo, Mauro Napoletano, Andrea Roventini, Tania Treibich -- In this paper we explore the effects of alternative combinations of fiscal and monetary policies under different income distribution regimes. In particular, we aim at evaluating fiscal rules in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions. We do so using an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous capital- and consumption-good firms, heterogeneous banks, workers/consumers, a Central Bank and a Government. We show that the model is able to reproduce a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities, including stylised facts concerning financial dynamics and banking crises. Simulation results suggest that the most appropriate policy mix to stabilize the economy requires unconstrained counter-cyclical fiscal policies, where automatic stabilizers are free to dampen business cycles fluctuations, and a monetary policy targeting also employment. Instead, "discipline-guided" fiscal rules such as the Stability and Growth Pact or the Fiscal Compact in the Eurozone always depress the economy, without improving public finances, even when escape clauses in case of recessions are considered. Consequently, austerity policies appear to be in general self-defeating. Furthermore, we show that the negative effects of austere fiscal rules are magnified by conservative monetary policies focused on inflation stabilization only. Finally, the effects of monetary and fiscal policies become sharper as the level of income inequality increases. -- Pages in PDF File: 38 -- Keywords: agent-based model, fiscal policy, monetary policy, banking crises, income inequality, austerity policies, disequilibrium dynamics -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  macroeconomics  fiscal_policy  fiscal_drag  austerity  Eurozone  EU_governance  EU  equilibrium  financial_crisis  bank_runs  inequality  countercyclical_policy  agent-based_models  complexity  recessions  dynamic_attractors  complex_adaptive_systems  downloaded 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Paul A. Lewis, review essay - Varieties of Emergence: Minds, Markets and Novelty (STUDIES IN EMERGENT ORDER, VOL 4 (2011): 170-192) :: SSRN
King's College London - Department of Political Economy -- This paper is an essay review of Richard Wagner's book, 'Mind, Society and Human Action'. It focuses on the ontological presuppositions of Wagner's account of of the social world (that is, on what Wanger's account presupposes about the nature of social reality). Issue discussed include the following: the nature of emergence and emergent properties; spontaneous order, and the shortcomings of Walrasian general equilibrium theory in modelling it; the significance of the impact of social interaction on peolpe's preferences and dispositions; and the role of novelty and innovation in Wagner's account of the market process. -- Number of Pages in PDF File: 23 -- Keywords: Emergence, complexity, Austrian Economics, ontology, spontaneous order, novelty -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  review  SSRN  philosophy_of_social_science  social_theory  ontology-social  mind  social_order  social_process  preferences  emergence  equilibrium  heterodox_economics  Innovation  complexity  economic_models  utility  behavioral_economics  markets-psychology  markets  methodology  methodology-qualitative  downloaded  EF-add 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Paul A. Lewis - An Analytical Core for Sociolgy: A Complex, Hayekian Analysis (2014, Review of Behavioral Economics, Forthcoming) :: SSRN
Lewis, Paul A., An Analytical Core for Sociolgy: A Complex, Hayekian Analysis (November 11, 2014). Review of Behavioral Economics, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2522810 -- King's College London - Department of Political Economy -- This paper develops a Hayekian perspective on Herbert Gintis, and Dirk Helbing's, attempts to develop a unified analytical approach to the social sciences. Like Hayek, Gintis and Helbing view both the economy, and also the human mind, as a complex adaptive system. Their emphasis on emergence, on group selection, on the social relations that structure people’s interactions, and on the importance of motivations stemming from so-called 'social preferences', sees them develop themes present in Hayek's own work, often in ways that build on and strengthen Hayek's own analysis. However, Gintis and Helbing's continued commitment to a model of people as maximising their expected utility, and to general equilibrium theory, arguably leaves them less able than Hayek to do justice to the importance of innovation, novelty and radical uncertainty in the economic process. -- Number of Pages in PDF File: 24 -- Keywords: Gintis, complexity, evolution, emergence, Hayek, reductionism, behavioral economics, equilibrium, order, uncertainty. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  social_theory  Hayek  Gintis  complexity  complex_adaptive_systems  evolution-as-model  evolution-social  evolutionary_biology  evolution  emergence  behavioral_economics  behavioralism  evolution-group_seledtion  rationality-economics  rational_choice  rationality-bounded  utility  social_order  uncertainty  reductionism  equilibrium  Innovation  economic_theory  economic_sociology  downloaded  EF-add 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Seamus Bradley Imprecise Probabilities (Dec 2014) | Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
It has been argued that imprecise probabilities are a natural and intuitive way of overcoming some of the issues with orthodox precise probabilities. Models of this type have a long pedigree, and interest in such models has been growing in recent years. This article introduces the theory of imprecise probabilities, discusses the motivations for their use and their possible advantages over the standard precise model. It then discusses some philosophical issues raised by this model. There is also a historical appendix which provides an overview of some important thinkers who appear sympathetic to imprecise probabilities. *-* Related Entries -- belief, formal representations of | epistemic utility arguments for probabilism | epistemology: Bayesian | probability, interpretations of | rational choice, normative: expected utility | statistics, philosophy of | vagueness
epistemology  philosophy_of_science  technology  probability  risk  uncertainty  rational_choice  rationality-economics  rationality  rationality-bounded  statistics  Bayesian  linguistics  causation  causation-social  causation-evolutionary  complexity  complex_adaptive_systems  utility  behavioral_economics  behavioralism  neuroscience  vagueness 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Daniel Little - Emergentism and generationism | Understanding Society 3014
So Epstein and Page both make use of the methods of agent based modeling, but they disagree about the idea of emergence. Page believes that complex adaptive systems give rise to properties that are emergent and irreducible; whereas Epstein doesn't think the idea makes a lot of sense. Rather, Epstein's view depends on the idea that we can reproduce (generate) the macro phenomena based on a model involving the agents and their interactions. Macro phenomena are generated by the interactions of the units; whereas for Page and Miller, macro phenomena in some systems have properties that cannot be easily derived from the activities of the units. At the moment, anyway, I find myself attracted to Herbert Simon's effort to split the difference by referring to "weak emergence" (link to amazon kindle): - Epstein paper dowmloaded to iPhone
social_theory  emergence  complex_adaptive_systems  complexity  agent-based_models  methodology  methodological_individualism  causation-social  anthropology  historical_sociology  fownloaded  kindle-available 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Nicholas Rowland, review essay A new direction in political sociology (2014) | Academia.edu
C A new direction in political sociology?

Authors
Abstract

This essay reviews works in (political) sociology that offer alternatives to sociology-as-usual. Sociologists with even fleeting awareness of the recent history of political sociology are surely familiar with the cultural turn, the global turn, and the turn toward complexity; however, another turn seems to be afoot, one toward existential concerns that direct us to recover how people experience ‘the complex contradictions of the social and political world’ (Taylor). Complex experiences often leave behind residues or ‘traces,’ and contributors in a recently edited volume challenge sociologists to unlock the social significance of these traces and find new ways to capture what our methods capture so poorly, namely, popular forgettings, geographies of exclusion, and the slow erasure of deeds, memories, and other subjugated knowledges belonging to individuals who find themselves dismissed, dispelled, or disenfranchised by nation-states. Traces left behind by individuals navigating the complexities of contemporary experiments in human ‘being’ are just the sort of analysis that must, in principle, place the actor at the center of analysis, and, after careful study, we now appreciate that despite the analytical ease of assuming that actors are singular, sociologists should examine actors as plural and unearth their essential multiplicity. *-* 1. Graham Taylor, The New Political Sociology: Power, Ideology and Identity in an Age of Complexity, Palgrave Macmillan: New York, 2010; viii + 208 pp. *-* 2. Herman Gray, Macarena Gómez-Barris (eds), Toward a Sociology of the Trace, University of Minnesota Press: Minneapolis, 2010; xvi + 328 pp. *-* 3. Bernard Lahire , The Plural Actor, Polity: Malden, MA, 2011; xx + 280 pp. -- Keywords - Agency, Bourdieu, complexity, political sociology, social theory, trace -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  books  reviews  political_science  political_sociology  memory-group  identity  identity-multiple  identity_politics  national_ID  power-asymmetric  agency  complexity  social_theory  downloaded 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Alex Rosenberg - Paul Krugman’s Philosophy of Economics, and What It Should Be » 3:AM Magazine
All the New Classical economists need to defend the dominant “paradigm” in economics against Krugman and other dissenters are the tools he grants them—maximization and equilibrium. -- Rosenberg then goes into Keynes, Knight, Soros re uncertainty and reflexivity. Comes up with too strong a conclusion that since economics is an historical science, you can't make predictions. But there's a big difference between predictions of a long term outcome, or even a specific business cycle and yet have history-confirmed principles that, e.g. fiscal policy should be countercyclical or that a balance sheet recession is unlikely to push prices up, and monetary policy loses traction so it's not going to generate inflation, or a monetary union without a fiscal union and consolidated banking regulation is likely to blow up. Worse, Rosenberg is reiterating the false myth that the Keynesian thinking couldn't explain the 1970s and the New Classicals could. History contradicts the macro implications of EMH, Ricardian equivalence, RBC, etc. Actually it was Friedman monetarism that "explained" the 1970s, and when Friedman theory was attempted in the 1980s it had to be abandoned since it simply didn't work. The New Classicals were initially along for the monetarism ride and consolidated ideologically in academia by ignoring real world failures, which were relatively unimportant during the Great Moderation which they claimed to have produced or at least understood.
economic_history  intellectual_history  economic_theory  macroeconomics  microfoundations  neoclassical_economics  Keynesian  political_economy  philosophy_of_social_science  methodology  monetarism  monetary_policy  fiscal_policy  causation-social  mechanism  systems_theory  complexity  risk-systemic  uncertainty  probability 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
George F.R. Ellis | Personal Page
Links to extensive number of books he has authored or co-authored and to speeches and papers -- Teaching and research interests: *-* General Relativity theory and its application to the study of the large-scale structure of the universe (cosmology). *-* The history and philosophy of cosmology. *-* Complex systems and emergence of complexity. *- * The human brain and behaviour. *-* Science policy, developmental issues. *-* Science and mathematics education. *-* The relation of science to religion.
philosophy_of_science  philosophy_of_religion  cosmology  physics  neuroscience  mind  mind-body  reductionism  causation  emergence  complexity  systems_theory  systems-complex_adaptive  science-and-religion  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
John Horgan - Physicist George Ellis Knocks Physicists for Knocking Philosophy, Falsification, Free Will | Cross-Check, Scientific American Blog Network - July 2014
A native of South Africa, Ellis is professor emeritus at the U of Cape Town, where he taught for decades, and has also held positions at Cambridge, the U of Texas, the Fermi Institute and ...around the globe. He was an early critic of apartheid, and Mandela awarded him the Order of the Star of S.Africa. -- Horgan: At the conference where we met you were in a session called “The end of experiment.” What was that about? - Ellis: - many of the possible high-energy physics experiments and astronomy observations relevant to cosmology are now in essence nearly complete. Physics experiments are approaching the highest energies it will ever be possible to test by any collider experiment... We can’t build a collider bigger than the surface of the Earth. Thus our ability to test high energy physics – and hence structures on the smallest physical scales – is approaching its limits. Astronomical observations at all wavelengths are now probing the most distant cosmological events that will ever be “seeable” by any kinds of radiation whatever, because of visual horizons for each form of radiation. -- So what we can see at the largest and smallest scales is approaching what will ever be possible, except for refining the details. But I emphasize that this comment does not apply to complex systems. Complexity is almost unbounded – microbiology, biology, the brain will give us work to do for many centuries more, what we may find may be very unexpected. That might also apply to the foundations of quantum physics, and its relation to complexity. -- I concede that observations relevant to structure formation in the universe – galaxies, stars, planets – have a good while to go, they are in essence verging to the side of studying complexity, and still have life in them yet, they are very interesting studies.
physics  cosmology  astronomy  scientism  reductionism  complexity  metaphysics  creation  big_bang  free_will  philosophy_of_science  neuroscience  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Trevor A. Harley - History lessons: what can we learn about history? | Rethinking History Vol. 18, Iss. 3, 2014 - Taylor & Francis Online
What can we learn from the past? This paper examines the nature of the past and discusses the extent to which historical outcomes are robust over different starting conditions, using primarily the example of the origin of the Great War. It reviews the mathematical and psychological literature on complexity theory, and considers the idea that history can indeed in some circumstances be robust across initial conditions. I introduce the notion of a dynamic historical attractor to account for the way in which the past unfolds over time, and relate dynamic attractors to post-modern approaches to historical interpretation. -- Keywords: complexity, chaos, dynamic historical attractors, alternative histories, causality, narrative, post-modernism -- T&F paywall
article  paywall  historiography  causation-social  causation  complexity  chaos_theory  dynamic_attractors  counterfactuals  narrative  narrative-contested  postmodern  WWI  contingency  social_theory  EF-add 
august 2014 by dunnettreader
Friedrich August von Hayek - Prize Lecture: The Pretence of Knowledge -- Nobel Prize 1974
MLA style: "Friedrich August von Hayek - Prize Lecture: The Pretence of Knowledge". Nobelprize.org. Nobel Media AB 2014. Web. 9 Aug 2014. <http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1974/hayek-lecture.html> -- uses stagflation to attack demand side theories with a hint of liquidationism -- more interesting is his take on Popper and limits to positivism and quantitative methodologies -- can theirize certain patterns and examine empirical evidence re those patterns, but can't predict quantitative outcomes -- though stresses complexity, seems to be an issue of incomplete data (by definition inaccessible since it's in the heads of masses of heterogeneous agents reacting to their own, constantly changing, limited information) rather than emergent properties and complexity dynamics
intellectual_history  20thC  post-WWII  social_sciences-post-WWII  economic_theory  markets  information-markets  Labor_markets  unemployment  inflation  economic_policy  demand  empiricism  uncertainty  epistemology  positivism  quantitative_methods  philosophy_of_science  philosophy_of_social_science  Popper  Hayek  determinism  emergence  equilibrium  complexity  EF-add  scientism  scientific_method  sociology_of_knowledge 
august 2014 by dunnettreader
Denis Dutton on Richard A. Etlin’s In Defense of Humanism | Philosophy and Literature 23 (1999): 243-55. Denis Dutton
Richard A. Etlin’s In Defense of Humanism (Cambridge University Press, $39.95) is notable not only for its passion, but for the way it supplies a new take on familiar problems. -- Etlin, however, is an architectural historian, and it’s refreshing to come across a cultural warrior lobbing grenades from a different academic encampment. -- Etlin’s book is excessively ambitious in trying to attack poststructuralism from dozens of angles; this, however, is part of its charm. He is bravely willing to take on anyone — Hayden White, Foucault, Nietzsche, Derrida, Bourdieu, de Man, Norman Bryson, Freud — and has no hesitation in identifying heroes and heroines, from Rembrandt to Jane Austen to Jefferson to Victor Hugo to Frank Lloyd Wright. -- Etlin says that not since Hegel have intellectuals displayed the hubris they show today, “attributing to themselves the power to arbitrate all meaning.” Their celebration of complexity and ambiguity becomes a form of “boundless egotism.” Poststructuralists are as suckered by the notion that texts are hidden repositories of obscure meanings as previous generations of intellectuals were suckered by the forces of astrology or alchemy. But their feelings of power, freedom, and discovery are illusory. "....Claims about variety, endless or even limited, can never be merely asserted; they must be demonstrated with coherent solutions.” -- Etlin’s brief but incisive treatment of Walter Benjamin’s 1935 essay “The Work of Art in the Age of Mechanical Reproduction” is quite typical of the provocations of his book, making me wonder why this essay is continuously reproduced, forced on students, and cited in articles. Benjamin’s so-called pathbreaking discourse is wrong on virtually all major counts, as Etlin shows.
books  reviews  intellectual_history  lit_crit  humanism  anti-humanism  19thC  20thC  poststructuralist  postmodern  social_theory  literary_theory  historiography-postWWII  epistemology-history  complexity  diversity  hermeneutics  deconstruction  narrative  aesthetics  mass_culture  Benjamin  EF-add 
february 2014 by dunnettreader
Eric D. Beinhocker : Reflexivity, complexity, and the nature of social science - Journal of Economic Methodology [Soros special issue] - Volume 20, Issue 4 - Taylor & Francis Online
pages 330-342 -- downloaded pdf to Note -- In 1987, George Soros introduced his concepts of reflexivity and fallibility and has further developed and applied these concepts over subsequent decades. This paper attempts to build on Soros's framework, provide his concepts with a more precise definition, and put them in the context of recent thinking on complex adaptive systems. The paper proposes that systems can be classified along a ‘spectrum of complexity’ and that under specific conditions not only social systems but also natural and artificial systems can be considered ‘complex reflexive.’ The epistemological challenges associated with scientifically understanding a phenomenon stem not from whether its domain is social, natural, or artificial, but where it falls along this spectrum. Reflexive systems present particular challenges; however, evolutionary model-dependent realism provides a bridge between Soros and Popper and a potential path forward for economics.
article  philosophy_of_science  philosophy_of_social_science  epistemology  methodology  complexity  Soros  reflexivity  intentionality  evolution-as-model  Popper  scientific_method  downloaded  EF-add  systems-complex_adaptive  systems-reflexive  systems_theory  economic_theory  economic_models  EMH  rationality-economics  rational_expectations  information-markets  cognition  cognition-social  falsification  neuroscience  uncertainty  laws_of_nature  covering_laws  causation  explanation  prediction 
january 2014 by dunnettreader
George Soros - Fallibility, reflexivity, and the human uncertainty principle - Journal of Economic Methodology [Soros special issue] - Volume 20, Issue 4 - Taylor & Francis Online
Lead article for special issue devoted to Soros and epistemology in social sciences more broadly compared with natural sciences and Popper's version of falsibility in scientific method -- He's making progress in formalizing his theory and putting it in context of other theorists - sees his fallibility and reflexivity combination as major factor in "Knightian uncertainty" - Downloaded pdf to Note
article  philosophy_of_social_science  philosophy_of_science  epistemology  scientific_method  falsification  deduction  Popper  Soros  uncertainty  economic_theory  economic_models  financial_economics  capital_markets  FX  EMH  rationality-economics  rational_expectations  complexity  equilibrium  reflexivity  ontology-social  free_will  financial_crisis  financial_system  fallibility  downloaded  EF-add  fundamentals  methodology  cognition  agency  intentionality 
january 2014 by dunnettreader
William Rasch and Cary Wolfe - Introduction: The Politics of Systems and Environments | JSTOR: Cultural Critique, No. 30 (Spring, 1995), pp. 5-13
Introduction to 2 special issues devoted to using Systems Theory as the foil for sorting out "what is to be done" on the Left in the aftermath of constructivist and postmodern "theory" that has deconstructed the rationalist and idealist traditions - humanist, materialist,etc with limited resources to address the depoliticization and managerial trends, as well as the fragmentation of identity, multiculturalism, post colonialism. They use demise of representationalism - in both epistemological and political senses, as organizing theme for the problems as well as what areas new philosophy and social theory must solve. They adopt the postmodern assumptions of dialectic replaced by difference with possibilities of aporias, the death of the subject relative to objects, replaced by subject position, post (or anti?) Humanism with environment and cybernetics becoming key new elements, non-foundationalism, and demise of logocentrism. -- downloaded pdf to Note -- see bookmarks for issue TOCs
article  jstor  intellectual_history  20thC  social_theory  metaphysics  epistemology  postmodern  constructivism  systems_theory  pragmatism  Marxism  complexity  philosophy_of_science  managerialism  subject  objectivity  paradox  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2014 by dunnettreader
Martin Kilduff, Wenpin Tsai and Ralph Hanke - A Paradigm Too Far? A Dynamic Stability Reconsideration of the Social Network Research Program | JSTOR: The Academy of Management Review, Vol. 31, No. 4 (Oct., 2006), pp. 1031-1048
Advocates Lakatos rather than treating network analysis as a Kuhnian normal science - thinks work on networks as nonlinear complex adaptive systems worth investigating given the issues with simple network theory in handling change and persistence and emergent qualities, eg big effects from small efforts -- see bibliography -- didn't download
article  jstor  social_theory  networks  social_capital  complexity  bibliography  EF-add 
january 2014 by dunnettreader
Joe Henrich - Website | University of British Columbia
Research Program: Coevolution, Development, Cognition & Cultural Learning -- Published Papers and Book Chapters by Category

- Societal Complexity and Cultural Evolution
- Social Norms and Cooperation
- Social Status (Prestige and Dominance)
- Religion
- Methodological Contributions and Population Variations
- Overviews
- Cultural Learning (Models and Evidence)
- Ethnography (Fiji, Machiguenga, Mapuche)
- Chimpanzee Sociality
- General Interest
bibliography  research  paper  biocultural_evolution  culture  social_psychology  anthropology  behavioral_economics  sociology_of_religion  status  norms  morality-conventional  moral_psychology  emotions  networks  institutions  complexity  demography  children  learning  tools  cooperation  competition  Innovation 
january 2014 by dunnettreader
Gowdy et al - Economic cosmology and the evolutionary challenge | Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Special Issue 2013
2nd lead articl5 -- downloaded pdf to Note -- The intellectual histories of economics and evolutionary biology are closely intertwined because both subjects deal with living, complex, evolving systems. Because the subject matter is similar, contemporary evolutionary thought has much to offer to economics. In recent decades theoretical biology has progressed faster than economics in understanding phenomena like hierarchical processes, cooperative behavior, and selection processes in evolutionary change. This paper discusses three very old “cosmologies” in Western thought, how these play out in economic theory, and how evolutionary biology can help evaluate their validity and policy relevance. These cosmologies are: (1) “natural man” as a rational, self-sufficient, egotistical individual, (2) competition among individuals can lead to a well-functioning society, and (3) there exists an ideal optimal state of nature. These correspond to Colander et al. (2004) “holy trinity of orthodox economics”, rationality, greed, and equilibrium. It is argued below that current breakthroughs in evolutionary biology and neuroscience can help economics go beyond these simple cosmologies.

They equate Pope’s Essay (self love and social are the same) with Mandeville Fable of the Bees
paper  journal  intellectual_history  ancient_philosophy  Western_civ  natural_law  cosmology  Providence  self-interest  competition  markets  economic_theory  economic_sociology  economic_culture  evolution-social  biocultural_evolution  evo_psych  evolution-as-model  reason  rationality-economics  rational_choice  downloaded  EF-add  equilibrium  complexity  Smith  Pope  Mandeville 
december 2013 by dunnettreader
Nassim Nicholas Taleb [12.12.12] UNDERSTANDING IS A POOR SUBSTITUTE FOR CONVEXITY (ANTIFRAGILITY) | Edge.org
Something central, very central, is missing in historical accounts of scientific and technological discovery. The discourse and controversies focus on the role of luck as opposed to teleological programs (from telos, "aim"), that is, ones that rely on pre-set direction from formal science. This is a faux-debate: luck cannot lead to formal research policies; one cannot systematize, formalize, and program randomness. The driver is neither luck nor direction, but must be in the asymmetry (or convexity) of payoffs, a simple mathematical property that has lied hidden from the discourse, and the understanding of which can lead to precise research principles and protocols.

?...Further, it is in complex systems, ones in which we have little visibility of the chains of cause-consequences, that tinkering, bricolage, or similar variations of trial and error have been shown to vastly outperform the teleological—it is nature's modus operandi. But tinkering needs to be convex; it is imperative. Take the most opaque of all, cooking, which relies entirely on the heuristics of trial and error, as it has not been possible for us to design a dish directly from chemical equations or reverse-engineer a taste from nutritional labels. We take hummus, add an ingredient, say a spice, taste to see if there is an improvement from the complex interaction, and retain if we like the addition or discard the rest. Critically we have the option, not the obligation to keep the result, which allows us to retain the upper bound and be unaffected by adverse outcomes.

?... Let us call the "convexity bias" the difference between the results of trial and error in which gains and harm are equal (linear), and one in which gains and harm are asymmetric ( to repeat, a convex payoff function). The central and useful properties are that a) The more convex the payoff function, expressed in difference between potential benefits and harm, the larger the bias. b) The more volatile the environment, the larger the bias. This last property is missed as humans have a propensity to hate uncertainty. SEVEN RULES OF ANTIFRAGILITY (CONVEXITY) IN RESEARCH
history_of_science  sociology_of_knowledge  Innovation  complexity  research 
december 2013 by dunnettreader
Nick Hanauer & Eric Beinhocker for Democracy Journal: Capitalism Redefined - Fall 2013
Nice think piece - capitalism as problem solving ecosystem -- prosperity in human societies can’t be properly understood by just looking at monetary measures of income or wealth. Prosperity in a society is the accumulation of solutions to human problems.

Good on what's wrong with mainstream economics. Points out it's also a cultural problem of valuing wealth as high status. But only hand waving on how to tackle a pernicious plutocracy when the cultural value system aligns with rewards and incentives that produce and maintain plutocracy.

Still good to put moral and political philosophy back together with political economy rather than pull them apart as both public choice and new institutional economics tends to do.
political_economy  capitalism  complexity  economic_growth  legitimacy  plutocracy  status  EF-add 
november 2013 by dunnettreader
Dirk Helbing & Alan Kirman - Rethinking economics using complexity theory | Real-World Economics Review Blog
Link to RWER paper - Downloaded pdf to Note - See comment to post attacking Complexity Theory that remains attached to a physical world metaphor rather than information flows (including faulty info) and varieties of reactions reflecting different sorts of individuals, institutions and their types of connections

Abstract - In this paper we argue that if we want to find a more satisfactory approach to tackling the major socio-economic problems we are facing, we need to thoroughly rethink the basic assumptions of macroeconomics and financial theory. Making minor modifications to the standard models to remove "imperfections" is not enough, the whole framework needs to be revisited. Let us here enumerate some of the standard assumptions and postulates of economic theory. [List of 7 standard assumptions]
economic_theory  economic_models  complexity  risk  information  institutions  institutional_economics  financial_system  downloaded  EF-add 
november 2013 by dunnettreader
Hilton Root - Dynamics among Nations: The Evolution of Legitimacy and Development in Modern States | The MIT Press
Liberal internationalism has been the West’s foreign policy agenda since the Cold War, and the West has long occupied the top rung of a hierarchical system. In this book, Hilton Root argues that international relations, like other complex ecosystems, exists in a constantly shifting landscape, in which hierarchical structures are giving way to systems of networked interdependence, changing every facet of global interaction. Accordingly, policymakers will need a new way to understand the process of change. Root suggests that the science of complex systems offers an analytical framework to explain the unforeseen development failures, governance trends, and alliance shifts in today’s global political economy.

Root examines both the networked systems that make up modern states and the larger, interdependent landscapes they share. Using systems analysis—in which institutional change and economic development are understood as self-organizing complexities—he offers an alternative view of institutional resilience and persistence. From this perspective, Root considers the divergence of East and West; the emergence of the European state, its contrast with the rise of China, and the network properties of their respective innovation systems; the trajectory of democracy in developing regions; and the systemic impact of China on the liberal world order. Complexity science, Root argues, will not explain historical change processes with algorithmic precision, but it may offer explanations that match the messy richness of those processes.
books  IR_theory  networks  complexity  Great_Divergence  development  legitimacy  nation-state  global_economy  global_system  global_governance  EF-add 
october 2013 by dunnettreader
Geerat J. Vermeij: A Historical Conspiracy: Competition, Opportunity, and the Emergence of Direction in History [eScholarship] | Cliodynamics 2:1 2011
Author:

Vermeij, Geerat J, University of California, Davis

I describe historical patterns that I believe would emerge in any system characterized by living things competing for locally scarce resources. I then consider the search for patterns and their explanation in the context of an intellectual climate dominated by anti-adaptationist rhetoric and doubts about the validity of scientific approaches to history. Notwithstanding this hostile environment, I present a summary of the economic principles that in my view not only account for historical patterns but also serve to predict future trends and postdict past ones not yet known. A positive feedback between consumers and resources – a historical conspiracy of sorts – implies the existence of inherent directions in the history of living things, including humans.

Downloaded pdf to Note
historiography  social_theory  big_history  complexity  evolution  downloaded  EF-add 
august 2013 by dunnettreader
John L. Gaddis: War, Peace, and Everything: Thoughts on Tolstoy [eScholarship] | Cliodynamics 2:1 2011
What Clausewitz and Tolstoy were trying to do was to derive from the experiences of history the laws governing it. Although they failed, these 19th-century thinkers, each operating from a different perspective, anticipated what we’ve come to call chaos and complexity theory.

Downloaded pdf to Note
historiography  19thC  Clausewitz  Tolstoy  historicism  social_theory  complexity  downloaded  EF-add 
august 2013 by dunnettreader
Lawless, Rivkin et al: Conservation of Information: Reverse engineering dark social systems 2010
Structure and Dynamics: eJournal of Anthropological and Related Sciences

A broad appeal for a new theory of interdependence, 'iota', has been requested for the science of complexity in a special issue of Science, for social network analysis by the National Academy of Sciences, for effects-based operations by the US military, and for modernizing the fields of law and economics. We have proposed a new theory of 'iota' for organizations and systems that already appears to exhibit some validity. It is expressed in a physics of 'iota' (e.g., bistability) that includes Fourier pairs for social uncertainty and Lotka-Volterra-like equations for population effects in social systems. Unlike traditional social science, it assumes that despite the tension between self and collective organizational processes, perfect organizations and social systems become dark, but that purposively dark systems emit more light in the form of unique information (e.g., gangs, terrorists, high-security systems). To reverse engineer dark social systems (DSS), our theory replaces methodological individualism with a physics of social 'iota'. But the many challenges in applying 'iota' to control theory or to metrics for organizational performance make this high-risk research.
social_theory  networks  methodology  complexity  game_theory  EF-add 
july 2013 by dunnettreader

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