dunnettreader + complex_adaptive_systems   10

Michael Strevens interview with Richard Marshall - Bigger Than Chaos - 3AM
Interview by Richard Marshall. Michael Strevens works on the philosophy of science, where his interests include explanation, complex systems, probability,…
Instapaper  interview  philosophy_of_science  complexity  complex_adaptive_systems  emergence  from instapaper
march 2016 by dunnettreader
Objective Principles of Economics by Egmont Kakarot-Handtke :: SSRN - April 2014, update March 2015
University of Stuttgart - Institute of Economics and Law -- Economists have the habit of solving the wrong problem. They speculate circumstantially about the behavior of agents and do not come to grips with the behavior of the monetary economy. This is the consequence of the methodological imperative that all explanations must run in terms of the actions and reactions of individuals. The critical point is that no way leads from the understanding of the interaction of the individuals to the understanding of the working of the economy as a whole. The solution consists in moving from subjective-behavioral axioms to objective-structural axioms, i.e., from proto-scientific past to scientific future. -- Pages in PDF File: 19 -- Keywords: new framework of concepts, structure-centric, axiom set, methodology, complex adaptive system, profit -- for references downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  economic_theory  macroeconomics  microfoundations  methodological_individualism  behavioralism  complex_adaptive_systems  sociology_of_knowledge  sociology_of_science_&_technology  Kuhn  Laktos  scientific_method  bibliography  downloaded 
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Giovanni Dosi, et al -Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Complex Evolving Economies -- 2013 :: SSRN
Giovanni Dosi, Giorgio Fagiolo, Mauro Napoletano, Andrea Roventini, Tania Treibich -- In this paper we explore the effects of alternative combinations of fiscal and monetary policies under different income distribution regimes. In particular, we aim at evaluating fiscal rules in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions. We do so using an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous capital- and consumption-good firms, heterogeneous banks, workers/consumers, a Central Bank and a Government. We show that the model is able to reproduce a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities, including stylised facts concerning financial dynamics and banking crises. Simulation results suggest that the most appropriate policy mix to stabilize the economy requires unconstrained counter-cyclical fiscal policies, where automatic stabilizers are free to dampen business cycles fluctuations, and a monetary policy targeting also employment. Instead, "discipline-guided" fiscal rules such as the Stability and Growth Pact or the Fiscal Compact in the Eurozone always depress the economy, without improving public finances, even when escape clauses in case of recessions are considered. Consequently, austerity policies appear to be in general self-defeating. Furthermore, we show that the negative effects of austere fiscal rules are magnified by conservative monetary policies focused on inflation stabilization only. Finally, the effects of monetary and fiscal policies become sharper as the level of income inequality increases. -- Pages in PDF File: 38 -- Keywords: agent-based model, fiscal policy, monetary policy, banking crises, income inequality, austerity policies, disequilibrium dynamics -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  macroeconomics  fiscal_policy  fiscal_drag  austerity  Eurozone  EU_governance  EU  equilibrium  financial_crisis  bank_runs  inequality  countercyclical_policy  agent-based_models  complexity  recessions  dynamic_attractors  complex_adaptive_systems  downloaded 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Andrew W. Lo - Reconciling Efficient Markets with Behavioral Finance: The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis - 2005 :: SSRN - Journal of Investment Consulting, Forthcoming
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) -- The battle between proponents of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and champions of behavioral finance has never been more pitched, and there is little consensus as to which side is winning or what the implications are for investment management and consulting. In this article, I review the case for and against the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, and describe a new framework - the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis - in which the traditional models of modern financial economics can co-exist alongside behavioral models in an intellectually consistent manner. Based on evolutionary principles, the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis implies that the degree of market efficiency is related to environmental factors characterizing market ecology such as the number of competitors in the market, the magnitude of profit opportunities available, and the adaptability of the market participants. Many of the examples that behavioralists cite as violations of rationality that are inconsistent with market efficiency - loss aversion, overconfidence, overreaction, mental accounting, and other behavioral biases - are, in fact, consistent with an evolutionary model of individuals adapting to a changing environment via simple heuristics. Despite the qualitative nature of this new paradigm, I show that the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis yields a number of surprisingly concrete applications for both investment managers and consultants. -- Pages in PDF File: 44 Keywords: Efficient markets, behavioral finance, adaptive markets
paper  SSRN  financial_economics  EMH  behavioral_economics  markets-structure  markets-psychology  rationality-economics  rationality-adaptive  efficiency  heuristics  methodology-qualitative  methodology-quantitative  complex_adaptive_systems  downloaded 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
F.A. Hayek - The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945) | Mises Institute
Text of article -- This article was first published in American Economic Review, Vol. XXXV, No. 4 (September 1945), pp. 519–30. -- downloaded as pdf to Note
article  Hayek  Austrian_economics  social_theory  social_order  social_process  emergence  complex_adaptive_systems  coordination  information  information-markets  downloaded 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Paul A. Lewis - The Emergence of 'Emergence' in the Work of F.A. Hayek: An Historical Analysis (revised Jan 2015) :: SSRN
King's College London - Department of Political Economy -- presented at Cambridge Realist Workshop -- This paper addresses a puzzle in the history of economic thought. The puzzle is simply stated: Hayek’s analysis of the mind arguably relies heavily on the philosophical notions of emergence and emergent properties. However, Hayek invokes the philosophical notion of emergence explicitly only once, and then relatively late in his career (in his 1964 paper on ‘The Theory of Complex Phenomena’.) The question arises, therefore, of where lie the origins of Hayek’s use of the notions of emergence and emergent properties. This paper attempts to solve this puzzle by examining the history of Hayek’s use of the concept of emergence, implicit or otherwise, and attempting to identify the sources through which notions of ‘emergence’ and ‘emergent properties’ entered his thought in general and, in particular, his theoretical psychology. -- Number of Pages in PDF File: 46 -- Keywords: Hayek, emergence, emergent properties, theoretical psychology -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  intellectual_history  20thC  Hayek  Austrian_economics  economic_theory  social_theory  ontology-social  equilibrium  social_order  social_process  emergence  complex_adaptive_systems  coordination  markets-psychology  mind  psychology  downloaded  EF-add 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Paul A. Lewis and Peter Lewin, review essay - Orders, Orders, Everywhere … on Hayek's "The Market and Other Orders" (revised Jan 2015) :: SSRN
Paul A. Lewis, King's College London - Department of Political Economy -- Peter Lewin, University of Texas at Dallas - School of Management - Department of Finance & Managerial Economics -- This paper is a review essay of the latest volume of The Collected Works of F.A. Hayek, entitled 'The Market and other Orders.' The paper examines the development of Hayeks' ideas about order, as manifested in the essays collected in this volume. Issues examined include: Hayek's accounts of the market and the mind as spontaneous orders; his reliance in those accounts on the notion of emergence; his account of complex systems, in particular his vision of the world as consisting of many different, hierarchically-organised, and interacting, complex orders, of which the market is but one; his analysis of cultural evolution as occurring via a process of group selection; his preference for the notion of 'order' over that of 'equilibrium'; and the relation of his ideas on complexity to those of modern complexity theorists. -- Number of Pages in PDF File: 46 -- Keywords: Hayek, Austrian economics, spontaneous order, complexity, emergence -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  intellectual_history  20thC  Hayek  Austrian_economics  economic_theory  social_theory  ontology-social  equilibrium  social_order  social_process  emergence  complex_adaptive_systems  coordination  markets-psychology  preferences  economic_sociology  economic_culture  downloaded  EF-add 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Paul A. Lewis - An Analytical Core for Sociolgy: A Complex, Hayekian Analysis (2014, Review of Behavioral Economics, Forthcoming) :: SSRN
Lewis, Paul A., An Analytical Core for Sociolgy: A Complex, Hayekian Analysis (November 11, 2014). Review of Behavioral Economics, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2522810 -- King's College London - Department of Political Economy -- This paper develops a Hayekian perspective on Herbert Gintis, and Dirk Helbing's, attempts to develop a unified analytical approach to the social sciences. Like Hayek, Gintis and Helbing view both the economy, and also the human mind, as a complex adaptive system. Their emphasis on emergence, on group selection, on the social relations that structure people’s interactions, and on the importance of motivations stemming from so-called 'social preferences', sees them develop themes present in Hayek's own work, often in ways that build on and strengthen Hayek's own analysis. However, Gintis and Helbing's continued commitment to a model of people as maximising their expected utility, and to general equilibrium theory, arguably leaves them less able than Hayek to do justice to the importance of innovation, novelty and radical uncertainty in the economic process. -- Number of Pages in PDF File: 24 -- Keywords: Gintis, complexity, evolution, emergence, Hayek, reductionism, behavioral economics, equilibrium, order, uncertainty. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  social_theory  Hayek  Gintis  complexity  complex_adaptive_systems  evolution-as-model  evolution-social  evolutionary_biology  evolution  emergence  behavioral_economics  behavioralism  evolution-group_seledtion  rationality-economics  rational_choice  rationality-bounded  utility  social_order  uncertainty  reductionism  equilibrium  Innovation  economic_theory  economic_sociology  downloaded  EF-add 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Seamus Bradley Imprecise Probabilities (Dec 2014) | Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
It has been argued that imprecise probabilities are a natural and intuitive way of overcoming some of the issues with orthodox precise probabilities. Models of this type have a long pedigree, and interest in such models has been growing in recent years. This article introduces the theory of imprecise probabilities, discusses the motivations for their use and their possible advantages over the standard precise model. It then discusses some philosophical issues raised by this model. There is also a historical appendix which provides an overview of some important thinkers who appear sympathetic to imprecise probabilities. *-* Related Entries -- belief, formal representations of | epistemic utility arguments for probabilism | epistemology: Bayesian | probability, interpretations of | rational choice, normative: expected utility | statistics, philosophy of | vagueness
epistemology  philosophy_of_science  technology  probability  risk  uncertainty  rational_choice  rationality-economics  rationality  rationality-bounded  statistics  Bayesian  linguistics  causation  causation-social  causation-evolutionary  complexity  complex_adaptive_systems  utility  behavioral_economics  behavioralism  neuroscience  vagueness 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Daniel Little - Emergentism and generationism | Understanding Society 3014
So Epstein and Page both make use of the methods of agent based modeling, but they disagree about the idea of emergence. Page believes that complex adaptive systems give rise to properties that are emergent and irreducible; whereas Epstein doesn't think the idea makes a lot of sense. Rather, Epstein's view depends on the idea that we can reproduce (generate) the macro phenomena based on a model involving the agents and their interactions. Macro phenomena are generated by the interactions of the units; whereas for Page and Miller, macro phenomena in some systems have properties that cannot be easily derived from the activities of the units. At the moment, anyway, I find myself attracted to Herbert Simon's effort to split the difference by referring to "weak emergence" (link to amazon kindle): - Epstein paper dowmloaded to iPhone
social_theory  emergence  complex_adaptive_systems  complexity  agent-based_models  methodology  methodological_individualism  causation-social  anthropology  historical_sociology  fownloaded  kindle-available 
january 2015 by dunnettreader

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