dunnettreader + article + demography   22

(URL is a pff) Greg Clark & Neil Cummins - Surnames and Social Mobility, Human Nature (2015)
Surnames and Social Mobility
Gregory Clark1 Neil Cummins2
To what extent do parental characteristics explain child social outcomes? Typically, parent-child correlations in socioeconomic measures are in the range 0.2-0.6. Surname evidence suggests, however, that the intergenerational correlation of overall status is much higher. This paper shows, using educational status in England 1170-2012 as an example, that the true underlying correlation of social status is in the range 0.75-0.85. Social status is more strongly inherited even than height. This correlation is constant over centuries, suggesting an underlying social physics surprisingly immune to government intervention. Social mobility in England in 2012 is little greater than in pre-industrial times. Surname evidence in other countries suggests similarly slow underlying mobility rates.
KEYWORDS: Social Mobility, intergenerational correlation, status inheritance
Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
status  Europe-Early_Modern  article  downloaded  surnames  statistics  17thC  British_history  16thC  mobility  Industrial_Revolution  19thC  inheritance  demography  21stC  20thC  18thC  medieval_history 
february 2017 by dunnettreader
(URL is pdf) Clark, Cummins, Hao & Vidal - Surnames: a New Source for the History of Social Mobility (2015)
Surnames: a New Source for the History of Social Mobility, Explorations in Economic History (2015)
Gregory Clark, Neil Cummins, Yu Hao, Dan Diaz Vidal
This paper explains how surname distributions can be used as a way to measure rates of social mobility in contemporary and historical societies. This allows for estimates of social mobility rates for any population for which we know just two facts: the distribution of surnames overall, and the distribution of surnames among some elite or underclass. Such information exists, for example, for England back to 1300, and for Sweden back to 1700. However surname distributions reveal a different, more fundamental type of mobility than that conventionally estimated. Thus surname estimates also allow for measuring a different aspect of social mobility, the underlying average social status of families, but the aspect that matters for mobility of social groups, and for families across multiple generations.
KEYWORDS: Social Mobility, intergenerational correlation, status inheritance
Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
demography  elites  ethnic_groups  social_history  inequality  article  statistics  surnames  mobility  downloaded 
february 2017 by dunnettreader
(Url is a pdf) N. Cummins, M. Kelly & C. O'Grada - Living Standards and Plague in London, 1560–1665
Living Standards and Plague in London, 1560–1665.
Neil Cummins, Morgan Kelly, and Cormac Ó Gráda∗ 2015 forthcoming Economic History Review
Abstract -- We use records of 870,000 burials and 610,000 baptisms to recon- struct the spatial and temporal patterns of birth and death in London from 1560 to 1665, a period dominated by outbreaks of plague. The plagues of 1563, 1603, 1625, and 1665 appear of roughly equal mag- nitude, with deaths running at five to six times their usual rate, but the impact on wealthier central parishes falls markedly through time. Tracking the weekly spread of plague before 1665 we find a consis- tent pattern of elevated mortality spreading from the same two poor northern suburbs. Looking at the seasonal pattern of mortality, we find that the characteristic autumn spike associated with plague con- tinued in central parishes until the early 1700s, and in the poorer surrounding parishes until around 1730. Given that the symptoms of plague and typhus are frequently indistinguishable, claims that plague suddenly vanished from London after 1665 should be treated with caution. In contrast to the conventional view of London as an undif- ferentiated demographic sink we find that natural increase improved as smaller plagues disappeared after the 1580s, and that wealthier... Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
17thC  Black_Death  social_history  statistics  birth_rates  Mathusian_checks  living_standards  economic_history  medicine  political_arithmetick  death_rates  18thC  British_history  plague  London  demography  article  fertility  downloaded  16thC  spatial  segregation 
february 2017 by dunnettreader
G Clark & N Cummins - Urbanization, Mortality, & Fertility in Malthusian England | American Economic Review (2009) on JSTOR
The richest groups reduced fertility around 1800 - before improvements in child mortality. Contra to Clark's hypothesis linking behavior in pre and post industrial periods. "The prospects for a unified account of economic growth in both the Malthusian and the Solovian eras thus look decidedly poor." -- Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
19thC  demography  rural  fertility  urbanization  downloaded  landowners  Industrial_Revolution  London  elites  article  life_expectancy  demographic_transition  16thC  18thC  British_history  17thC 
january 2017 by dunnettreader
G. Clark & N. Cummins - Malthus to modernity: wealth, status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879 (2015)
Journal of Population Economics
January 2015, Volume 28, Issue 1, pp 3–29
Abstract -- A key challenge to theories of long-run economic growth has been linking the onset of modern growth with the move to modern fertility limitation. A notable puzzle for these theories is that modern growth in England began around 1780, 100 years before there was seemingly any movement to limit fertility. Here we show that the aggregate data on fertility in England before 1880 conceals significant declines in the fertility of the middle and upper classes earlier. These declines coincide with the Industrial Revolution and are of the character predicted by some recent theories of long-run growth.
Keywords: Fertility transition, Demographic transition, Preindustrial fertility
economic_growth  middle_class  article  19thC  paywall  16thC  British_history  fertility  marriage-age  social_history  18thC  status  economic_history  elites  17thC  demography  marriage  birth_control 
january 2017 by dunnettreader
Peter Solar - Poor Relief and English Economic Development before the Industrial Revolution (1995) | Economic History Review on JSTOR
The English system of poor relief helped to shape the country's distinctive pre-industrial economy. English relief, when set against continental experience, stands out as uniform and comprehensive in coverage; as reliant on local property taxation for funding; and as generous and reliable in benefits. The insurance provided by relief underpinned the growth of a mobile wage-labour force and facilitated changes inland tenure and use. The fiscal impact of relief expenditure gave taxpayers incentives to put labourers to work and to keep local demographic and economic development in balance.
agriculture-productivity  Labor_markets  economic_history  welfare  Industrial_Revolution  local_government  downloaded  jstor  agriculture  18thC  British_history  17thC  Poor_Laws  article  Europe-Early_Modern  19thC  demography  unemployment 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Cummins, N., Kelly, M. and Ó Gráda, C - Living standards and plague in London, 1560–1665 - The Economic History Review (2016) - Wiley Online Library
Cummins, N., Kelly, M. and Ó Gráda, C. (2016), Living standards and plague in London, 1560–1665. The Economic History Review, 69: 3–34. doi:10.1111/ehr.12098This article uses individual records of 930,000 burials and 630,000 baptisms to reconstruct the spatial and temporal patterns of birth and death in London from 1560 to 1665, a period dominated by recurrent plague. The plagues of 1563, 1603, 1625, and 1665 appear of roughly equal magnitude, with deaths running at five to six times their usual rate, but the impact on wealthier central parishes falls markedly through time. Tracking the weekly spread of plague, we find no evidence that plague emerged first in the docks, and in many cases elevated mortality emerges first in the poor northern suburbs. Looking at the seasonal pattern of mortality, we find that the characteristic autumn spike associated with plague continued into the early 1700s. Natural increase improved as smaller crises disappeared after 1590, but fewer than half of those born survived childhood. -- downloaded via Air to DBOX
article  downloaded  social_history  economic_history  16thC  17thC  British_history  England  London  demography  urbanization  sanitation  plague  poverty 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Garrett Hardin - The Tragedy of the Commons - Science Vol. 162 no. 3859 pp. 1243-1248, 13 December 1968 | From AAAS
DOI: 10.1126/science.162.3859.1243 -- The author is professor of biology, University of California, Santa Barbara. This article is based on a presidential address presented before the meeting of the Pacific Division of the American Association for the Advancement of Science at Utah State University, Logan, 25 June 1968. -- Abstract - The population problem has no technical solution; it requires a fundamental extension in morality. -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  economic_theory  rationality-economics  demography  commons  common_good  freedom  political_economy  political_culture  moral_philosophy  moral_economy  downloaded 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Tarascio, Vincent J. "Cantillon's Essai: A Current Perspective." - The Journal of Libertarian Studies (1985) | Mises Institute
Tarascio, Vincent J. "Cantillon's Essai: A Current Perspective." Journal of Libertarian Studies 7, No. 2 (1985): 249–257. -- Professor Spengler's, "Richard Cantiilon: First of the Modems," published in 1954, remains the classic survey article of Cantillon's contributions to economic thought. These contributions consist of views on population and related matters, theory of value, monetary theory, and international trade and finance. Many of his ideas became a part of the economic thought of the closing years of the eighteenth century, and, as Professor Spengler points out, unfortunately, Cantillon's name had been stripped from most if not all of his ideas. Professor Spengler, then, has done both Cantillon and the economics profession a service by restoring to Cantillon his rightful place in the history of economic thought. -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  intellectual_history  18thC  France  Cantillon  political_economy  economic_theory  economic_sociology  macroeconomics  value-theories  monetary_theory  demography  trade-theory  trade_finance  trade_deficits  FX  capital_flows  banking  financial_system  downloaded 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Jack A. Goldstone - The New Population Bomb: The Four Megatrends That Will Change the World | JSTOR: Foreign Affairs, Vol. 89, No. 1 (January/February 2010), pp. 31-43
UN predicts global population will level off by 2050 at approximately 9.15 billion from a bit under 7 billion today. Assuming we can avoid environmental catastrophe, the big demographic shifts will be more than half the population will be in cities and the growth will have been concentrated in younger cohorts of less developed regions, especially countries with low quality health, education and infrastructure, lack of economic opportunities to absorb the youth population (especially young, easily radicalized males) with the current wealthy economies both relatively older and smaller, requiring immigration to maintain growth and income levels. These trends will require a wholesale makeover in global governance. -- didn't download
article  jstor  21stC  global_economy  global_system  global_governance  population  demography  economic_growth  political_sociology  IR  OECD_economies  emerging_markets 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Faustine Perrin - Unified Growth Theory: An Insight | JSTOR: Historical Social Research / Historische Sozialforschung, Vol. 36, No. 3 (137) (2011), pp. 362-372
The Unified Growth Theory is receiving increasing attention from growth theorists since the seminal work of Galor and Weil (1999, 2000). These authors emphasize the need for a unified theory of growth that could account for the transition from Malthusian Stagnation to the Modern Growth Regime (1999). This interest is motivated by the lack of explanation and knowledge regarding the historical evolution of the relationship among population growth, technological change and the standard of living. This paper gives an overview of the Unified Growth Theory, its determinants and its implications. -- didn't download
article  jstor  economic_history  economic_growth  historical_sociology  demography  Malthusian  Malthus  technology  Great_Divergence 
june 2014 by dunnettreader
Şevket Pamuka1 and Maya Shatzmiller - Plagues, Wages, and Economic Change in the Islamic Middle East, 700–1500 | The Journal of Economic History - Cambridge Journals Online
This study establishes long-term trends in the purchasing power of the wages of unskilled workers and develops estimates for GDP per capita for medieval Egypt and Iraq. Wages were heavily influenced by two long-lasting demographic shocks, the Justinian Plague and the Black Death and the slow population recovery that followed. As a result, they remained above the subsistence minimum for most of the medieval era. We also argue that the environment of high wages that emerged after the Justinian Plague contributed to the Golden Age of Islam by creating demand for higher income goods.
article  paywall  economic_history  economic_culture  demography  Islamic_civilization  medieval_history  Medieval  plague  Labor_markets  consumers  wages  EF-add 
march 2014 by dunnettreader
Johan van der Zande - Statistik and History in the German Enlightenment | JSTOR: Journal of the History of Ideas, Vol. 71, No. 3 (July 2010), pp. 411-432
Not statistics but the collection and study of information about the states of Europe - connected to cameralism and focus on political economy rather than military -though clearly how to survive and thrive as an independent state in the European system a major impetus. Van der Zande uses analogy of Venetian ambassadors. Gets launched in a big way in 1750s and has ceased to be a separate important discipline by the early 19thC, the apparent victim of Germany's historical age. Interesting view of motives, academic and bureaucratic resources German states within and without the HRE, the European system, alternative philosophies of human nature, happiness, commerce and the roles of the state. -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  jstor  intellectual_history  18thC  Germany  Enlightenment  Austria  historiography-18thC  political_arithmetick  governance  enlightened_absolutism  cameralism  commerce  agriculture  trade  manufacturing  trading_companies  taxes  social_sciences  nation-state  bureaucracy  public_health  demography  downloaded  EF-add 
february 2014 by dunnettreader
Archon Fung - Associations and Democracy: Between Theories, Hopes, and Realities | JSTOR: Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 29 (2003), pp. 515-539
Over the past decade, there has been a resurgence of interest and research into the connections between associations and democracy. This article divides the question of associative contributions to democracy into four component parts: What (a) contributions do (b) different kinds of associations make to advance (c) contesting ideals of democratic governance in various (d) political contexts? Associations enhance democracy in at least six ways: through the intrinsic value of associative life, fostering civic virtues and teaching political skills, offering resistance to power and checking government, improving the quality and equality of representation, facilitating public deliberation, and creating opportunities for citizens and groups to participate directly in governance. These contributions are not all mutually consonant with one another, and different forms of associations are better suited to advance some contributions than others. Furthermore, those who propose bolstering associations as a strategy for revitalizing democracy frequently have quite different ideals of democracy in mind. The forms and contributions of associations appropriate to three contesting notions of democratic governance-liberal minimalism, conventional representation-cum-administration, and participatory democracy-are also discussed. Finally, the democratic priority of associative contributions depends crucially on contextual features of particular societies. Under tyrannical regimes, for example, associations that resist government authority are more crucial than those that foster compliance and respect for political institutions. -- heavily cited in jstor -- didn't download
article  jstor  political_culture  demography  popular_politics  political_participation  representative_institutions  civic_virtue  equality  deliberation-public  governance  liberalism  libertarianism  resistance_theory  legitimacy  EF-add 
february 2014 by dunnettreader
Tom Arkell - Illuminations and Distortions: Gregory King's Scheme Calculated for the Year 1688 and the Social Structure of Later Stuart England | JSTOR: The Economic History Review, New Series, Vol. 59, No. 1 (Feb., 2006), pp. 32-69
Compare with Geoffrey Holmes critique of King's estimates in 1970s -- This critique of King's well-known Scheme of the social order in 1688 examines his purposes, the Scheme's evolutionary process, and the taxation data (hearth, poll, window, and marriage duty) that King used to construct it, before contrasting his conclusions with recent research. His social hierarchy emerges as a rather crude and backward-looking stereotype based on too many intelligent guesses, with his treatment of the poorer families being least satisfactory. Overall, King's population totals appear sound, his national income estimate low, and various mean household sizes and family and children's totals unreliable. -- didn't download
article  jstor  economic_history  social_history  demography  population  classes  lower_orders  British_history  political_arithmetick  UK_Government  17thC  18thC  EF-add 
january 2014 by dunnettreader
N. J. Mayhew - Population, Money Supply, and the Velocity of Circulation in England, 1300-1700 | JSTOR: The Economic History Review, New Series, Vol. 48, No. 2 (May, 1995), pp. 238-257
The importance of monetary and demographic factors in the later medieval and early modern 'price revolutions' has been much debated. This article analyses this long period in the terms of the Fisher Identity MV=PT, but also fully recognizes the importance of demographic change, and its impact on GDP. Tentative estimates of money supply and GDP are discussed, and from them velocity of circulation is deduced. Velocity has tended to fall over this period, but rising Tudor velocity is regarded as a symptom of economic distress. -- didn't download
article  jstor  economic_history  UK_economy  14thC  15thC  16thC  17thC  economic_growth  demography  population  prices  money_supply  money_velocity  money  commerce  dearth  EF-add 
january 2014 by dunnettreader
David Rollison - Exploding England: The Dialectics of Mobility and Settlement in Early Modern England | JSTOR: Social History, Vol. 24, No. 1 (Jan., 1999), pp. 1-16
Movement, change, uncertainty and unpredictability, the most obvious characteristics of English life between the Reformation and the execution of Charles Stuart, have been lost in the recent historiography of early modern England. From a post-colonial perspective, it is obvious that something very dramatic must have happened to turn three million English speakers into six hundred million and convert entire cultures to English ways of organising and thinking. Viewed from the colonies, England exploded during this period, and continued to explode for at least 350 years. Something very revolutionary must have been going on in England to make this happen. This paper explores the dialectics of movement and settlement in early modern England for signs of contradiction. -- impact on doing social history of postmodernism on thinking about geography, territory, "governmentality" reflected in archives that doesn't match lived experience, post-colonial insights -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  jstor  social_history  historiography  postmodern  postcolonial  social_theory  geography  territory  migration  social_mobility  political_economy  middle_class  peasants  labor  agriculture  gentry  colonialism  British_Empire  demography  emigration  population  urbanization  British_history  16thC  17thC  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2014 by dunnettreader
Emma Griffin: A conundrum resolved? Courtship, marriage and the growth of population in eighteenth-century England. | Emma Griffin - Academia.edu
A cultural shift in marriage norms over the long 18thC has to be placed at the fore of explaining the downward shift in marriage age - earlier focus on economic explanation that economic growth allowed the earlier establishment of independent households leaves out the erosion of ability of communities to police marriage norms as economic mobility increased and competing norms or freedom to pursue individual preferences emerged. -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  Academia.edu  social_history  economic_history  cultural_history  demography  18thC  Britain  marriage  population  family  Industrial_Revolution  mobility  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2013 by dunnettreader
Philip Benedict: Was the Eighteenth Century an Era of Urbanization in France? (1990)
JSTOR: The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, Vol. 21, No. 2 (Autumn, 1990), pp. 179-215 -- in comparing different results by historians, looks at definitional and measurement issues with implications for other issues like estimating preindustrial growth
article  jstor  social_history  economic_history  demography  economic_growth  urbanization  statistics  18thC  France  EF-add 
september 2013 by dunnettreader
John Berdell: Interdependence and independence in Cantillon's Essai (2009) | T & F Online
The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Volume 16, Issue 2, 2009, pages 221- 249, Available online: 18 Jun 2009, DOI: 10.1080/09672560902890988 -- paywall -- Cantillon's contribution to economic thought is widely understood to lie in his systematic examination of economic interconnectedness. The model developed here brings profits fully into price determination, casts additional light on Cantillon's treatment of distribution, and provides the first extended analysis of the policy recommendations found in part one of his Essai. These anti-urban policies are examined in relation to French urbanization and William Petty's analysis of Irish economic development.Entrepreneurial risk-bearing is central to the Essai and this model, yet for Cantillon landlord tastes determine the economy's equilibrium position. This view is mirrored in his treatment of class mobility: only by becoming landed proprietors can entrepreneurs escape dependence and become independent or autonomous determiners of society. Indeed, social mobility actually accounts for the ‘independence’ of the landed proprietors as a group. Rent's special role stems not so much from the nature of land or agriculture – as Physiocracy would emphasize – as from the nature of the social forces determining its ownership.Keywords: : Cantillon , classical economics , income distribution , Petty , demography
article  paywall  economic_history  economic_theory  intellectual_history  18thC  France  Britain  Ireland  Cantillon  Petty_William  landowners  mobility  status  social_order  elites  urbanization  demography  entrepreneurs  landed_interest  profit  distribution-income  EF-add 
september 2013 by dunnettreader
GEORGE GRANTHAM: The French cliometric revolution: A survey of cliometric contributions to French economic history (1997)
JSTOR: European Review of Economic History, Vol. 1, No. 3 (DECEMBER 1997), pp. 353-405 -- downloaded pdf to Note -- This article surveys cliometric research on the development of the French economy, with special emphasis on the fiscal and monetary history of the Revolution, the alleged retardation of the French economy in the nineteenth century, and the question of agricultural productivity in the early modern and industrial age.
article  jstor  economic_history  statistics  17thC  18thC  19thC  France  fiscal-military_state  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  sovereign_debt  agriculture  demography  industrialization  modernization  lit_survey  bibliography  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2013 by dunnettreader
Philip Benedict: The Huguenot Population of France, 1600-1685: The Demographic Fate and Customs of a Religious Minority (1991)
JSTOR: Transactions of the American Philosophical Society, New Series, Vol. 81, No. 5 (1991), pp. i-ix+1-164 -- whole issue is this study with all his data tables -- counters popular hypothesis from several decades ago by some Protestant historians that Huguenot population was falling across the 17thC as symptom of weakness of the community, which was ironically reinvigorated by the Revocation -- The demographics don't seem to support that story, either in population trends or in how the records shed light on religious practices or mentalités. see pp 22-27 re Reformed vs Catholic baptismal practices. In some regions where Huguenots were larger numbers or seem to have felt politically more secure, delay often weeks if not even months.
article  jstor  religious_history  religious_culture  17thC  France  Huguenots  population  demography  politics-and-religion  EF-add 
september 2013 by dunnettreader

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