dunnettreader + us_economy   233

Vitor Gaspar - The Making of a Continental Financial System; Lessons for Europe from Early American History (2014) IMF working paper
Alexander Hamilton was the first U.S. Treasury Secretary from 1789 to 1795. When he started, the Federal Government was in default. During his tenure, U.S. Treasuries became the ultimate safe asset. He successfully managed expectations, achieved debt service reduction, and stabilized financial panics. He delivered sound public finances and financial stability. In the end, the U.S. possessed a modern financial system able to finance innovation and growth. At a time when Europe is working its way out of the sovereign debt crisis and implementing Banking Union and Financial Union, it is worthwhile to search for lessons from early U.S. history. - downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
paper  capital_markets  18thC  risk_assessment  European_integration  US_economy  sovereign_debt  economic_history  market_integration  Eurozone  political_economy  Germany-Eurozone  governance-regional  asset_prices  downloaded  US_history  Hamilton  federalism  regional_blocs 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Kurt Newman - Reflections on the Conference "Beyond the New Deal Order " Sept 2015 - S-USIH Blog
The impetus for the conference was the anniversary of a classic collection of essays edited by Steve Fraser and Gary Gerstle: The Rise and Fall of the New Deal Order, published by Princeton University Press in 1989. We learned that this volume came together in the mid-1980s as New Left veterans Fraser and Gerstle surveyed the rise of Reaganism and lamented the poverty of New Deal historiography: dominated as it then was by Whig great man hagiography and toothless stories of cycles of American liberalism and conservatism. We learned, too, that “order” was chosen carefully from a longer list of contenders (“regime,” “system,” etc), and that this choice of “order” was deeply connected to the volume’s stated goal of providing a ‘historical autopsy” for the period that ran from the election of FDR to the PATCO firings.
historiography  US_history  19thC  20thC  pre-WWI  entre_deux_guerres  post-WWII  US_politics  US_economy  political_economy  political_culture  New_Deal  US_politics-race  US_government  US_society  US_foreign_policy  US_military  state-roles  social_order  social_sciences-post-WWII  Keynesianism  Keynes  Reagan  labor_history  New_Left  historians-and-politics 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Noah Smith - The Illusion of Lagging Productivity | Bloomberg View - August 2016
Re Dietrich Vollrath's recent posts on how part of it may be statistical illusion from industry collecting rents due to increased industry concentration, IP etc., which makes the stats on production look too capital-heavy.
economic_growth  US_economy  21stC  2010s  productivity  rents  rent-seeking  competition  statistics  from instapaper
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Iryna Stewen & Mathias Hoffmann - Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, US house prices & the long shadow of banking deregulation (2015 wp)
Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy with number 112834. -- Abstract -- We explore empirically how capital inflows into the US and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the run-up (and subsequent decline) in US housing prices over the period 1990-2010. To obtain an ex ante measure of financial liberalization, we focus on the history of interstate-banking deregulation during the 1980s, i.e. prior to the large net capital inflows into the US from China and other emerging economies. Our results suggest a long shadow of deregulation: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to capital inflows. We provide evidence that global imbalances were a major positive funding shock for US wide banks: different from local banks, these banks held a geographically diversified portfolio of mortgages which allowed them to tap the global demand for safe assets by issuing private-label safe assets backed by the country-wide US housing market. This, in turn, allowed them to expand mortgage lending and lower interest rates, driving up housing prices. -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
banking  financial_crisis  deregulation  US_economy  downloaded  financial_regulation  global_imbalance  capital_markets  post-Cold_War  financial_system  interstate_banking  savings  house_prices  securitization  financial_innovation  interest_rates  mortgages  international_finance  capital_flows  community_banks  paper  21stC  economic_history  competition-interstate  NBFI 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Atif Mian, Amir Sufi - Who Bears the Cost of Recessions? The Role of House Prices and Household Debt | NBER -:May 2016
NBER Working Paper No. 22256 -- This chapter reviews empirical estimates of differential income and consumption growth across individuals during recessions. Most existing studies examine the variation in income and consumption growth across individuals by sorting on ex ante or contemporaneous income or consumption levels. We build on this literature by showing that differential shocks to household net worth coming from elevated household debt and the collapse in house prices play an underappreciated role. Using zip codes in the United States as the unit of analysis, we show that the decline in numerous measures of consumption during the Great Recession was much larger in zip codes that experienced a sharp decline in housing net worth. In the years prior to the recession, these same zip codes saw high house price growth, a substantial expansion of debt by homeowners, and high consumption growth. We discuss what models seem most consistent with this striking pattern in the data, and we highlight the increasing body of macroeconomic evidence on the link between household debt and business cycles. Our main conclusion is that housing and household debt should play a larger role in models exploring the importance of household heterogeneity on macroeconomic outcomes and policies.
paper  paywall  NBER  economic_history  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  debt_crisis  debt-overhang  business_cycles  house_prices  mortgages  consumer_demand  US_economy 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Paul Glastris - Elizabeth Warren just gave the most sneakily important speech of 2016
Re pattern of industry consolidation in US, and need for aggressive competition policies - Glastris thinks EW has figured out how to package it as "common sense", easy to understand, political discourse for Democrats
US_politics  US_economy  Democrats  elections-2016  competition  antitrust  political_economy  political_discourse  Instapaper  from instapaper
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Pawel Krolowkowski - Choosing a Control Group for Displaced Workers | Cleveland Fed
The vast majority of studies on the earnings of displaced workers use a control group of continuously employed workers to examine the effects of initial displacements. This approach implies long-lived earnings reductions following displacement even if these effects are not persistent, overstating the losses relative to the true average treatment effect. This paper’s approach isolates the impact of an average displacement without imposing continuous employment on the control group. In a comparison of the standard and alternative approaches using PSID data, the estimated long-run earnings losses fall dramatically from 25 percent to 5 percent. Model simulations reinforce these empirical findings. - Key words: Displacement, earnings, control group, treatment event. - available as pdf
wages  job_security  unemployment  US_economy  trade-job_loss  job_cuts  displaced_workers  training-job  trade_policy  paper 
june 2016 by dunnettreader
Peter Hinrichs - Trends in Employment at US Colleges and Universities, 1987–2013 | Cleveland Fed
This Economic Commentary studies employment at colleges and universities in the United States between 1987 and 2013. Some of the results from this analysis are in line with conventional wisdom. For example, I document that a declining proportion of faculty are full-time employees. On the other hand, some of the results are counter to popular belief. For example, I find that the share of college employees who are executives, administrators, or managers has not changed appreciably over time. - available as pdf -he promises to look next at salaries and compensation which isn't part of this analysis - describes the problems in extracting meaningful info given (1) category overlap, e.g. folks in IT and technology - educators, researchers, support staff? and (2) the series has a break where different categories used and organized differently
education-higher  faculty  US_economy  college-costs  college  university  employment_trends  services 
june 2016 by dunnettreader
What It's Worth - Building a Strong Financial Future
Americans everywhere struggle to build strong financial futures for themselves and their families. The new book, What It's Worth, provides a roadmap for what families, communities and our nation can do to move forward on the path to financial well-being.
Collection of essays by people working on financial inclusion, asset-building etc. - downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
gig_economy  education-finance  philanthropy  credit  usury  financial_innovation  US_society  inequality-wealth  local_government  pensions  corporate_citizenship  mobility  banking  wages  health_care  access_to_finance  housing  financial_regulation  report  social_entrepreneurs  poverty  downloaded  welfare  US_economy  US_politics  families  mortgages  segregation  inequality  NBFI  unemployment  US_government 
april 2016 by dunnettreader
Barry Ritholz - Soaring Productivity Is Missing From the Numbers - Bloomberg View - April 2016
You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics. Government data this morning showed that the U.S. gained 215,000 new jobs last…
Instapaper  economic_growth  gnp  productivity  stats  US_economy  from instapaper
april 2016 by dunnettreader
Chris Lehmann - In a Big Country, Dreams Stay with You | The Baffler
Would that America were one big frat. Not. / A. Davey Y ou might think that something called “the great unsettling” involved movement of some kind: the abrupt…
US_society  US_politics  US_economy  cultural_change  from instapaper
march 2016 by dunnettreader
Brad DeLong - Robber Barons: Honest Broker/Hoisted from 1998
Matthew Josephson called them 'Robber Barons'. He wanted readers to think back to their European history classes, back to thugs with spears on horses who did…
Instapaper  political_economy  economic_history  US_history  US_economy  US_politics  economic_growth  economic_policy  economy-structure  investment  19thC  20thC  pre-WWI  entre_deux_guerres  robber_barons  Gilded_Age  Progressive_Era  from instapaper
february 2016 by dunnettreader
Noah Smith - The Next Big Idea in Economic Growth - Bloomberg Feb 2016
neoliberalism is fundamentally an old idea. We’ve been trying to boost economic freedom for decades now, and there’s a good possibility that all the low-hanging fruit has been picked. So what else is there? Looking around, I see the glimmer of a new idea forming. I’m tentatively calling it “New Industrialism.” Its sources are varied -- they include liberal think tanks, Silicon Valley thought leaders and various economists. But the central idea is to reform the financial system and government policy to boost business investment. Business investment -- buying equipment, building buildings, training employees, doing research, etc. -- is key to growth. It’s also the most volatile component of the economy, meaning that when investment booms, everything is good. The problem is that we have very little idea of how to get businesses to invest more. Unfortunately, net U.S. business investment has been more or less in decline for decades:
Pocket  US_economy  US_politics  economic_growth  economic_policy  economy-structure  investment  investment-government  from pocket
february 2016 by dunnettreader
Larry Summers - No free lunches but plenty of cheap ones - Feb 2016
February 7, 2016 Trade-offs have long been at the center of economics. The aphorism “there is no such thing as a free lunch” captures a central economic idea:…
Instapaper  US_economy  US_government  Summers  stagnation  demand-side  economic_growth  Great_Recession  investment-government  government_finance  interest_rates  from instapaper
february 2016 by dunnettreader
The Changing Composition of Productivity Growth | The Growth Economics Blog - Nov 2015
After the post I did recently on profit shares and productivity calculations, I’ve been picking around the BLS, OECD, and Penn World Tables methodologies for…
Instapaper  US_economy  economic_growth  productivity  productivity-labor_share  investment  Great_Recession  stagnation  from instapaper
november 2015 by dunnettreader
Mike Konczal, J.W. Mason, Amanda Page-Hoongrajok - Ending Short-Termism: An Investment Agenda for Growth - Roosevelt Institute - Nov 2015
The first part of this agenda will directly counter several of the specific trends known to increase short-termism. It will include ideas that are broadly applicable across industries, such as policies to address skyrocketing CEO pay, as well as more targeted solutions. A policy agenda to address corporate short-termism requires a comprehensive approach focused on building countervailing power, which is addressed in the second part of our proposal. The forces that push firms toward shorttermism will persist and find new ways to exert power, but the reforms outlined in this paper embrace wide-scale, long-term changes, such as granting workers power on boards, designed to attract long-term stakeholders. The agenda also includes practical, simple policy changes for regulators.The third part of our agenda contains solutions that point to a new role for the state. Taxes and full employment are two obvious and necessary ways of checking short-termism, and if companies are less interested in investment, government needs to fill in that gap, whether by providing high-speed cable or funding basic research. -- downloaded pdf to Note
US_economy  investment  investors  capital_markets  corporate_finance  corporate_governance  shareholder_value  shareholders  short-termism  financial_system  equity_markets  capital_formation  capital_allocation  executive_compensation  debt  buybacks  tax_policy  Labor_markets  labor_share  unions  investment-government  downloaded 
november 2015 by dunnettreader
J.W. Mason - Understanding Short-Termism: Questions and Consequences - Roosevelt Institute - Nov 2015
addresses the most common objections to the idea that short-termism is a serious problem for the US economy. These objections fall into 3 broad categories: short-termism is not real (because of an apparent increase in business investment), short-termism is not harmful (because increased payouts allocate capital more efficiently), and short-termism is not our problem (because shareholders alone should determine what to do with a corporation’s surplus funds). J.W. Mason provides answers to 12 common questions about short-termism and shareholder payouts. Questions 1 and 2 reflect the first objection, Questions 3 through 7 reflect the second objection, and questions 8 through 12 reflect the third objection. Drawing on the best available data, he concludes that none of these objections hold up under scrutiny.This report is part of the Roosevelt Institute’s comprehensive Rewriting the Rules agenda, which aims to level the playing field and grow the economy. A companion report, “Ending Short-Termism,” develops a policy agenda to respond to this challenge -- downloaded pdf to Note
US_economy  investment  investors  capital_markets  corporate_finance  corporate_governance  shareholder_value  shareholders  short-termism  financial_system  equity_markets  capital_formation  capital_allocation  executive_compensation  debt  buybacks  tax_policy  downloaded 
november 2015 by dunnettreader
New Deal Demodrat - Do rising child care costs & stagnant wages explain the decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate? - August 2015
Sure looks like it -- may be affecting participation rate of men as well -- stay-at-home dads increasingly accepted cultural option where wife making a better salary, but the additional income from the stay-at-home spouse won't cover the child care costs, which have been rising while wages have flat-lined or fallen at the lower and lower middle class segments
Pocket  US_economy  labor_history  unemployment  work-life_balance  child_care  access_to_services  wages  labor-service_sector  from pocket
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Jane E. Ihrig, Ellen E. Meade, Gretchen C. Weinbach - Monetary Policy 101: A Primer on the Fed's Changing Approach to Policy Implementation | US Federal Reserve Board of Governors - June 2015. - via IDEAS
The Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy in order to achieve its statutory mandate of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates as prescribed by the Congress and laid out in the Federal Reserve Act. For many years prior to the financial crisis, the FOMC set a target for the federal funds rate and achieved that target through purchases and sales of securities in the open market. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, with a superabundant level of reserve balances in the banking system having been created as a result of the Federal Reserve's large scale asset purchase programs, this approach to implementing monetary policy will no longer work. This paper provides a primer on the Fed's implementation of monetary policy. We use the standard textbook model to illustrate why the approach used by the Federal Reserve before the financial crisis to keep the federal funds rate near the FOMC's target will not work in current circumstances, and explain the approach that the Committee intends to use instead when it decides to begin raising short-term interest rates. -- downloaded pdf to Note
US_economy  financial_system  Fed  central_banks  monetary_policy  interest_rates  money_market  banking  GSEs  institutional_investors  NBFI  downloaded 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz - How the Fed will tighten — Money, Banking and Financial Markets - August 2015
So, as the FOMC moves to “normalize” monetary policy after years of extraordinary accommodation – eventually raising the federal funds rate to their projected long-run norm of nearly 4% – how, precisely, will the Fed tighten monetary policy? The answer is that the mechanics will be fundamentally different from previous Fed tightening cycles. While the nature of the prospective policy tools will be familiar to long-time specialists, their use will be radically different. As a result, the chapter on Fed operations in money and banking textbooks (including ours) will once again be substantially amended to explain this new framework to the next generation of students aiming to understand the U.S. central bank. This post summarizes why the Fed’s policy mechanics must change and the basics of how the operating framework will function going forward. For those interested in a more detailed version of this discussion, Fed researchers Ihrig, Meade, and Weinbach recently published an excellent primer that is likely to be a reference for years to come. Tags: Federal Reserve, Policy tools, Policy mechanics, Repo, Reverse repo, ON RRP, Term RRP, Term deposit, IOER, IORR, Interest on reserves, GSEs -- downloaded page as pdf to Note
US_economy  financial_system  Fed  central_banks  monetary_policy  interest_rates  money_market  banking  GSEs  institutional_investors  NBFI  downloaded 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Thomas Palley » The US Economy: Explaining Stagnation and Why It Will Persist - August 2015
The US Economy: Explaining Stagnation and Why It Will Persist
This paper examines the major competing interpretations of the economic crisis in the US and explains the rebound of neoliberal orthodoxy. It shows how US policymakers acted to stabilize and save the economy, but failed to change the underlying neoliberal economic policy model. That failure explains the emergence of stagnation, which is likely to endure. Current economic conditions in the US smack of the mid-1990s. The 1990s expansion proved unsustainable and so will the current modest expansion. However, this time it is unlikely to be followed by financial crisis because of the balance sheet cleaning that took place during the last crisis. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  US_economy  stagnation  macroeconomics  financial_crisis  Great_Recession  neoliberalism  downloaded 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao - US economy becoming less sensitive to interest rate changes - via Hutchins Roundup | Brookings Institution July 30 2015
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao of the Kansas City Fed find that, prior to 1985, a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the federal funds rate was associated with a roughly 0.2 percent increase in employment over the following 2 years—255,000 jobs in today’s market—but that the same rate cut today has almost no impact on employment. The authors argue that this is due to a weaker link between short- and long-run interest rates and a general shift in employment from interest rate sensitive industries like manufacturing and construction to less sensitive service providing sectors. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  US_economy  monetary_policy  interest_rates  investment  manufacturing  services  unemployment  economic_growth  monetary_policy-effectiveness  macroeconomic_policy  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Rand Ghayad - US labour market: Broken with and without unemployment benefits | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 22 July 2013
Will US unemployment benefits help or hinder those out of work? Much recent economic theory suggests that benefits reduce people’s likelihood of getting work. This column presents new research that looks in detail at various types of unemployment – job loser, job leaver, new entrant, re-entrant – suggesting that there is a limit to the extent that unemployment benefits reduce the amount of effort put into searching for a new job. The increase in the unemployment rate relative to job openings will persist when unemployment benefit programmes expire.
US_economy  Great_Recession  Labor_markets  stagnation  unemployment  safety_net 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Jesse Rothstein - The Great Recession and its aftermath: What role do structural changes play? - Washington Center for Equitable Growth - July 6, 2015
My research, based on a review of extensive data on labor market outcomes since the end of the Great Recession of 2007-2009, finds no basis for concluding that the recent trend of stagnant wages and low employment is the “new normal.” Rather, the data point to continued business cycle weakness as the most important determinant of workers’ outcomes over the past several years. It is only in the past few months that we have started to see data consistent with growing labor market tightness, and even this trend is too new to be confident. The continued stagnation of wages through the end of 2014 implies that, at a minimum, a fair amount of slack remained in the labor market as of that late date. In turn, policies that would promote faster recoveries and encourage aggregate demand during and after recessions remain key policy tools. -- didn't download
paper  US_economy  Great_Recession  Labor_markets  stagnation 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz - Why the mortgage interest tax deduction should disappear, but won't - June 2015
In the run-up to the 2012 U.S. Presidential election, Planet Money asked five economists from across the political spectrum for proposals that they would like… Great job of not only showing how distortionary it is, but the impact on all house prices, not just the ones currently enjoying large deductions, if it were to be eliminated. They map out the huge scale of the negative ripple effects on the entire economy if housing prices were to precipitously fall -- folks at the bottom would get hammered the worst in terms of the amount of home equity, and consequently the portion of their wealth, which would be wiped out. The impact on global financial markets would also be ugly. So we're stuck with the system -- nevvah gonns happen
US_economy  US_politics  tax_reform  housing  mortgages  inequality-wealth  from instapaper
june 2015 by dunnettreader
Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz - Dodd-Frank: Five Years After — Money, Banking and Financial Markets - June 2015
On July 21, 2010, President Obama signed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (hereafter, DF), the most sweeping financial regulatory… Very good roundup of the holes that are left, the inability to force a coherent inter-agency approach to key risk regulation areas (e.g. the Financial Stability Oversight couldn't force the SEC to write adequate Money Market Funds reg, making it even worse than before the crisis), and the areas where regs are excessively complex, costly etc -- so they either won't do the job (and regulators will wind up making ad hoc exceptions because they're not workable) or their going to get gamed. Basically comes down to the age-old problem of regulation by institutional form rather than by function. The financial crisis was the best chance we had to rationalize the system, and Paulson had Treasury working on a proposal to do just that, but it got trashed when the financial system blew up and everybody was battling for narrow interests in a crisis atmosphere with inflamed populist politics -- only thing positive was finally getting rid of OCC. I do think they're unnecessarily suspicious of the new consumer protection agency -- given that a full overhaul wasn't possible, somebody needs to be responsible for looking out for consumers, since the main regulators are focused on financial risk issues at the institutional or system level.
Instapaper  US_economy  US_politics  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  Fed  SEC  banking  capital_markets  government_agencies  risk  risk-systemic  risk_management  NBFI  shadow_banking  money_market  institutional_investors  consumer_protection  leverage  capital_adequacy  inter-agency  liquidity  arbitrage  markets-structure  intermediation  financial_instiutions  financial_system-government_back-stop  from instapaper
june 2015 by dunnettreader
Grateful in Baltimore | Economic Principals
The news from Baltimore had seemed pretty bleak until Friday, when a 35-year-old city prosecutor brought charges against six police officers involved in the death of Freddie Gray last month. An attorney for the Fraternal Order of Police in Baltimore complained of an “egregious rush to judgment.” Those developments got me thinking about some other measures that have been taken over the years to improve civic life in the United States. Baltimore State’s Attorney Marilyn James Mosby grew up in the Dorchester neighborhood of Boston. He mother, father, aunts, and uncles were Boston police officers. Her grandfather, Prescott Thompson, helped organize the Massachusetts Association of Minority Law Enforcement Officers, in 1968. -- Walsh tracks the steps Mosby took to get her where she now is -- a combination of hard work, talent, and deliberate openings of opportunities that had been foreclosed to women and blacks. He ebds, after a series of stats that show conditions, despite being dreadful in Freddie Gray's neighborhood, have improved significantly due to hard work of reformers over decades and changes in government policies. He ends with a blast at those who would blame the financial crisis on CRA -- instead he thinks that the implementation (albeit too little and too slow) has been one of great policy success stories in halting and beginning to reverse the deliberate, racist obstacles to wealth accumulation of African-Americans. -- saved to Instapaper
US_history  US_economy  US_politics  US_politics-race  urban_politics  War_on_Poverty  affirmative_action  segregation  discrimination  housing  African-Americans  poverty  middle_class  banking  credit  access_to_finance  savings  central_government  local_government  local_politics  Instapaper  from instapaper
june 2015 by dunnettreader
JW Mason - The Slack Wire: The End of the Supermanager? - June 2015
Like Larry at EPI, he finds the new highly heralded paper that claims the growth of inequality has been principally between firms rather than between "classes" -- some of the results don't fully pass the smell test e.g. that different sectors don't appear to be an important variable, which doesn't square with what we know about the financial services industry. More interesting is breaking down "sources" of income for those at the top of the income distribution pyramid, and what's been happening with the mix of sources. There was a huge spurt in CEO compensation "from labor" from, say $1M to $10M. Then since c. 2000, it's dropped back down to $5M. So the continued process of the lion's share of growth in GNP going to the tippy-top is now increasingly income from wealth, not "labor". A pattern to chew on, but it further complicates the claims of the paper that we're seeing inequality emerge from n apparently less nefarious process than rampant greed of superstars. It's inter-firm competition, the benefits of which the lower orders participate in via higher compensation than peers in less competitive firms.
Instapaper  US_economy  economic_history  post-Cold_War  21stC  inequality  inequality-wealth  executive_compensation  competition  Innovation  labor_share  productivity  productivity-labor_share  from instapaper
june 2015 by dunnettreader
MN Baily, W Bekker and SE Holmes - The big four banks: The evolution of the financial sector, Part I | Brookings Institution - May 26, 2015
Martin Neil Baily, William Bekker and Sarah E. Holmes -- This report is the first in a series on the evolution of the financial sector. The series aims to retrace the major trends that have shaped the banking sector since the crisis and to orient the public as to where industry stands today. This first installment focuses on the “Big Four” banks: JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citi, and Wells Fargo. This first report is meant to be a factual exploration of the balance sheets of the four largest banks. We will follow this with a report on the regional banks and then a sample of smaller banks. While we give some commentary on the data, the purpose at this stage is to allow readers access to a picture of the largest banks and form their own judgments about why the banks have changed. Putting together the balance sheets of the big four seemed at first as if it would be a straightforward task, but the reality has been different and more difficult. We have aimed to present an accurate picture in the following pages but we would welcome comments. -- didn't download
paper  US_economy  banking  financial_system  financial_crisis  capital_adequacy  capital_markets  too-big-to-fail  intermediation 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Roger Backhouse, Mauro Boianovsky - Secular Stagnation: The History of a Macroeconomic Heresy :: SSRN - May 5, 2015
Roger Backhouse, University of Birmingham - Department of Economics -- Mauro Boianovsky, Universidade de Brasilia. *--* This paper covers the history of secular stagnation from Alvin's Hansen's AEA Presidential address in 1938 to the recent re-discovery of the idea by Lawrence Summers. It is argued that the story of secular stagnation is more complicated than the simple version usually told: the theory changed in ways that meant that, though its immediate relevance might be less, postwar prosperity left open the possibility that it might one day become relevant. It is also pointed out that the history of the term has never been free of political concerns, and it is suggested that changing conceptions of economic theory played an important role in the fate of secular stagnation -- Pages in PDF File: 36 -- Keywords: secular stagnation, unemployment equilibrium, Keynesian economics, Hansen -' downloaded to Note
paper  SSRN  economic_theory  intellectual_history  economic_history  US_economy  US_politics  20thC  Great_Depression  post-WWII  Keynesianism  stagnation  macroeconomics  institutional_economics  prices  competition  deficit_finance  downloaded 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Ravi Balakrishnan and Juan Solé - Close But Not There Yet: Getting to Full Employment in the United States | IMFdirect May 2015
By Ravi Balakrishnan and Juan Solé (Version in Español) Last month’s report on U.S. jobs was disappointing, with far fewer jobs than expected added in March. A… Nice roundup of all the bits of data that show a lot more slack than headline unemployment rate suggests
US_economy  Labor_markets  unemployment  data  statistics  Instapaper  from instapaper
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Alan B. Krueger - The great utility of the Great Gatsby Curve | Brookings May 2015
Every so often an academic finding gets into the political bloodstream. A leading example is "The Great Gatsby Curve," describing an inverse relationship between income inequality and intergenerational mobility. Born in 2011, the Curve has attracted plaudits and opprobrium in almost equal measure. Over the next couple of weeks, Social Mobility Memos is airing opinions from both sides of the argument, starting today with Prof Alan Krueger, the man who made the Curve famous. -- Building on the work of Miles Corak, Anders Björklund, Markus Jantti, and others, I proposed the “Great Gatsby Curve” in a speech in January 2012. The idea is straightforward: greater income inequality in one generation amplifies the consequences of having rich or poor parents for the economic status of the next generation.
The curve is predicted by economic theory…
US_economy  inequality  inheritance  inequality-opportunity  inequality-wealth  families  economic_sociology  economic_theory  economic_models  microeconomics  mobility  statistics  Instapaper  from instapaper
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Médicins sans frontières - The Trans-Pacific Partnership: A Threat To Global Health? -:May 2015
The IP protections for big pharma not only go against consensus on improving global health policy, they are in the opposite direction of Obama administration domestic policy! The trade technocrats who've been committed to a career of trade negotiations seem to have completely lost the plot. Looks like a classic case of regulatory capture (sharing "business promotion" process and goals with US MNCs, their most important "partners") of one part of the policymaking bureaucracy, which isn't even registering the fact of conflict with other parts of the government. The White House (and Treasury? ) appear to have bought the negitiators' claim that the deal is the "best" they can get, and if a part of it is attacked the whole thing will come apart. Besides the MNCs who will be able to exploit monopolies on a global scale and protect their newly acquired"property rights" from pesky national regulations, it's unclear who in the US benefits. But the trade technocrats are working in a bubble where "doing a deal" would be a triumph, regardless of the merits, after Doha fell apart. It also looks like "intellectual capture" with a failure to mark policies to market in face of counter evidence. There's been nothing on the trade front that has vocally challenged neoliberal verities the way the IMF is openly questioning its dogmas. I bet USTR is still mandating capital account liberalization in bilaterals while it's been abandoned as "best practice" at the IMF, with no timely input from the right people at Treasury to change the boilerplate demands. Jason Furman, or somebody close to the President, needs to show him how much the TPP embodies a host of awful stuff he's been openly fighting against. The secrecy has been working against him -- it distorts the signals. People whose judgment he'd trust haven't opposed specifics they'd scream against, since they haven't seen the details and aren't willing to be seen to undermine him, and he's only been pressured from the Left which can be completely discounted, since they're expected to be unhappy. But it's looking not just "hold your nose" poor -- it's actively terrible -- especially since it's also to be used as a blueprint for bringing more countries on board! Total dig's breakfast!
US_economy  US_politics  trade-policy  trade-agreements  Trans-Pacific-Partnership  IP  IP-global_governance  pharma  health  development  LDCs  monopolies  rent-seeking  inequality  unions  neoliberalism  Democrats  Obama_administration  Obama  Instapaper  from instapaper
may 2015 by dunnettreader
William Lazonick - Stock buybacks: From retain-and reinvest to downsize-and-distribute | Brookings Institution - April 2015
Stock buybacks are an important explanation for both the concentration of income among the richest households and the disappearance of middle-class employment opportunities in the United States over the past three decades. Over this period, corporate resource-allocation at many, if not most, major U.S. business corporations has transitioned from “retain-and-reinvest” to “downsize-and-distribute,” says William Lazonick in a new paper.
paper  US_economy  capital_markets  capitalism  investment  R&D  corporate_governance  corporate_finance  buybacks  shareholder_value  short-termism  incentives-distortions  labor_share  productivity  productivity-labor_share  inequality  wages  unemployment  downloaded 
may 2015 by dunnettreader
Ben Zipperer - How raising the minimum wage ripples through the workforce | Washington Center for Equitable Growth - April 2015
Summary of research by several economists -- the failure to index the minimum wage has been a big part of increasing inequality at the bottom of the income distribution, especially for wonen. Discusses the ripple effects that have fully dissipated by the 25th percentile -- charts and pdf available
US_economy  economic_history  20thC  21stC  post-Cold_War  wages  wages-minimum  gender_gap  inequality  Labor_markets 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Martin Albrow, review essay - Who Rules the Global Rule Makers? - Books & ideas - 3 November 2011
Reviewed: Tim Bütheand Walter Mattli, The New Global Rulers: The Privatization of Regulation in the World Economy, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 2011; and Vibert, Frank, Democracy and Dissent: The Challenge of International Rule Making, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2011. -- Tags : democracy | globalisation | European Union | governance | United States of America -- Thirty years of misguided deregulation have brought us the 2008 collapse. Two books look at how we should create new rules democratically. While adopting widely different perspectives, both beg the same question: can rulemaking alone ensure the wellbeing of people in a global society? -- saved to Instapaper
books  reviews  21stC  globalization  global_governance  privatization  MNCs  IFIs  regulation  regulation-harmonization  regulation-enforcement  deregulation  capitalism-systemic_crisis  capital_flows  capital_markets  sovereignty  capitalism  democracy  democracy_deficit  political_participation  US_foreign_policy  US_economy  US_politics  market_fundamentalism  markets_in_everything  markets-failure  plutocracy  Instapaper 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor - Mortgaging the Future? | The Big Picture - Guest Post - March 27th, 2015
In the six decades following World War II, bank lending measured as a ratio to GDP has quadrupled in advanced economies. To a great extent, this unprecedented expansion of credit was driven by a dramatic growth in mortgage loans. Lending backed by real estate has allowed households to leverage up and has changed the traditional business of banking in fundamental ways. This “Great Mortgaging” has had a profound influence on the dynamics of business cycles. -- update of their 2012 article that goes back to 19thC and does more breakdown of the changes in the financial services industry -- downloaded page as pdf to Note
US_economy  economic_history  macroeconomics  financial_system  financial_innovation  financial_crisis  housing  mortgages  credit  debt  debt_crisis  business_cycles  financialization  NBFI  real_estate  banking  macroprudential_policies  macroprudential_regulation  macroeconomic_policy  downloaded 
march 2015 by dunnettreader
Rajiv Sethi: Innovation, Scaling, and the Industrial Commons - July 2010
When Yves Smith makes a strong reading recommendation, I usually take notice. Today she directed her readers to an article by Andy Grove calling for drastic changes in American policy towards innovation, scaling, and job creation in manufacturing. The piece is long, detailed and worth reading in full, but the central point is this: an economy that innovates prolifically but consistently exports its jobs to lower cost overseas locations will eventually lose not only its capacity for mass production, but eventually also its capacity for innovation: - interesting discussion in updates and comments
US_economy  US_politics  Labor_markets  unemployment  trade-policy  trade-theory  off-shoring  manufacturing  Innovation  technology  technology_transfer  industrial_policy 
march 2015 by dunnettreader
Nick Bunker - Mortgage fraud, income growth, and credit supply | Feb 11, 2015 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Earlier this year, a new working paper cast doubt on one of the dominant explanations of the reasons for the 2002-2006 housing bubble in the United States—that growth in mortgage credit and income growth uncoupled as credit flowed to areas to with declining income growth. Instead, economists Manuel Adelino of Duke University, Antoinette Schoar of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Felipe Severino of Dartmouth College, argue that the cause of the increase on household debt was a classic speculative mania. But a new paper by economists Atif Mian of Princeton University and Amir Sufi of the University of Chicago questions this view of the debt build-up. The seeming flaws in the dominant narrative that an increase in the supply of credit caused the bubble, they say, can be explained by one thing: mortgage fraud. -- Bunker links to both papers - didn't download but will follow debate via "House of Debt" blog
paper  21stC  US_economy  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  housing  securitization  capital_markets  mortgages  distribution-income  distribution-wealth  asset_prices  bubbles  fraud  GSEs  bankruptcy  debt  investors  yield  risk  credit  rating_agencies  credit_ratings  speculative_finance  EF-add  from instapaper
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Thomas Palley » The Federal Reserve and Shared Prosperity: A Guide to the Policy Issues and Institutional Challenges - Jan 2015
The Federal Reserve is a hugely powerful institution whose policies ramify with enormous effect throughout the economy. Its policies impact almost every important aspect of the economy and it is doubtful the US can achieve shared prosperity without the policy cooperation of the Fed. That makes understanding the Federal Reserve, the policy issues and institutional challenges, of critical importance. -- downloaded pdf to Note
economic_theory  economic_sociology  economic_culture  central_banks  institutional_economics  institutional_change  monetary_policy  financial_system  US_economy  US_politics  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
John Irons and Isaac Shapiro - Report: Regulation, employment, and the economy: Fears of job loss are overblown | Economic Policy Institute - April 2011
After the first midterms debacle -- . In the first months since the new Congress convened, the House has held dozens of hearings designed to elicit criticisms of regulations, introduced legislation that would dramatically alter the regulatory process by requiring congressional approval of all major regulations, and passed a spending bill that would slash the funding levels of regulatory agencies and restrict their ability to enact rules covering areas such as greenhouse gas emissions. (..) opponents of regulation argue that agency rules are damaging to the economy in general and job generation in particular. Some say specific regulations will destroy millions of jobs and cite a study (critiqued later in this paper) purporting to show that regulations cost $1.75 trillion per year. Regulations are frequently discussed only in the context of their threat to job creation, while their role in protecting lives, public health, and the environment is ignored. This report reviews whether the evidence backs the perspective of regulatory opponents. The first section looks broadly at the effects of regulations, whether they play a useful role in the economy, and whether their overall benefits outweigh their overall costs. The second section assesses the theory and evidence for the assertion that regulations undermine jobs and the economy. The last section examines the kinds of studies that are discussed when regulations are being formulated; these studies, often cited in debates and therefore of great importance, tend to be prospective
estimates of the effects of proposed regulations. -- downloaded pdf to Note
US_economy  US_politics  Obama_administration  Congress  GOP  deregulation  cost-benefit  unemployment  business_influence  public_policy  public_goods  public_health  environment  climate  financial_regulation  US_government  regulation  regulation-environment  regulation-costs  common_good  commons  economic_sociology  economic_theory  economic_culture  statistics  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Chuck Marr and Chye-Ching Huang - Obama’s Capital Gains Tax Proposals Would Make Tax Code More Efficient and Fair | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities -Jan 2015
The tax code strongly favors income from capital gains — increases in the value of assets, such as stocks — over income from wages and salaries. These preferences are economically inefficient: they promote tax schemes that convert ordinary income into capital gains and encourage people to hold assets just to escape tax, even if they have better investment opportunities. They are also highly regressive, since capital gains are heavily concentrated at the top of the income scale. The President has proposed to make the tax code more efficient and equitable by reducing one of the biggest subsidies for capital gains (a preferential rate compared to wage and salary income) and largely eliminating another (the ability to avoid capital gains tax completely by holding on to an asset until death). These changes would allow investments to flow to where they are most productive and reduce investment in creating tax avoidance schemes instead of in real economic activity, among other economic benefits. And, because the benefits of the current preferences for capital gains flow overwhelmingly to the top, fully 99 percent of the revenue from the President’s capital gains proposals would come from the top 1 percent of filers, the Treasury Department estimates. -- 7 page report downloaded as pdf to Note
US_economy  US_politics  Obama_administration  taxes  tax_policy  tax_reform  capital  investment  1-percent  inheritance  tax_collection  public_finance  public_policy  trickle-down  incentives  incentives-distortions  distribution-wealth  distribution-income  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Mike Konczal - The 2003 Dividend Tax Cut Did Nothing to Help the Real Economy | Next New Deal January 2015
Pre Obama proposal to reverse part of Bush tax cuts - Berkeley economist Danny Yagan’s fantastic new paper, “Capital Tax Reform and the Real Economy: The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut” -- He uses a large amount of IRS data on corporate tax returns to compare S-corporations with C-corporations. C-corps are publicly-traded, S-corps are closely held without institutional investors. But they are largely comparable in the range Yagan looks at (between $1 million and $1 billion dollars in size), as they are competing in the same industries and locations. -- S-corps don’t pay a dividend tax and thus didn’t benefit from the big 2003 dividend tax cut, while C-corps do pay them and did benefit. So that allows Yagan to set up S-corps as a control group and see what the effect of the massive dividend tax cut on C-corporations has been. -- [Yagan finds no difference in things we want to encourage] -- The one thing that does increase for C-corps of course, is the disgorgement of cash to shareholders -- an increase in dividends and share buybacks. This shows that these corps are responding to the tax cut; they just happen to be decisions that benefit, well, probably not you. If right now you are worried that too much cash is leaving firms to benefit a handful of investors while the real economy stagnates, suddenly Clinton-era levels of dividend taxation don’t look so bad. -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  US_economy  US_politics  21stC  taxes  corporate_finance  corporate_tax  capital  dividends  investment  shareholders  investors  GOP  shareholder_value  tax_policy  tax_reform  supply-side  trickle-down  Obama_administration  Bush_administration  distribution-income  distribution-wealth  1-percent  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Full transcript: President Obama, Dec 4 2013 - Inequality and rolling back Reagan Revolution | The Washington Post
But starting in the late ‘70s, this social compact began to unravel.Technology made it easier for companies to do more with less, eliminating certain job occupations. A more competitive world led companies ship jobs anyway. And as good manufacturing jobs automated or headed offshore, workers lost their leverage; jobs paid less and offered fewer benefits. As values of community broke down and competitive pressure increased, businesses lobbied Washington to weaken unions and the value of the minimum wage. As the trickle-down ideology became more prominent, taxes were slashes for the wealthiest while investments in things that make us all richer, like schools and infrastructure, were allowed to wither. And for a certain period of time we could ignore this weakening economic foundation, in part because more families were relying on two earners, as women entered the workforce. We took on more debt financed by juiced-up housing market. But when the music stopped and the crisis hit, millions of families were stripped of whatever cushion they had left. And the result is an economy that’s become profoundly unequal and families that are more insecure. (..) it is harder today for a child born here in America to improve her station in life than it is for children in most of our wealthy allies, countries like Canada or Germany or France. They have greater mobility than we do, not less.(..) The combined trends of increased inequality and decreasing mobility pose a fundamental threat to the American dream, our way of life and what we stand for around the globe. And it is not simply a moral claim that I’m making here. There are practical consequences to rising inequality and reduced mobility. -- downloaded as pdf to Note
speech  Obama  inequality  supply-side  labor_share  business-ethics  norms  norms-business  morality-conventional  morality-Christian  utilitarianism  globalization  technology  US_foreign_policy  US_economy  US_politics  US_society  US_government  US_history  common_good  civic_virtue  economic_growth  economic_culture  distribution-income  distribution-wealth  unemployment  health_care  public_goods  public_opinion  public_policy  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Andrew Sprung - Reagan Revolution rollback | xpostfactoid - Jan 2015
Thanks largely to Piketty it's become increasingly clear that in the Reagan Revolution, middle class America sold its birthright for a mess of supply-side pottage. Dems willingness to credit GOP dogma -- raising taxes on high incomes and investment gains inhibits growth, deregulation spurs it -- are melting away. Post midterm losses, Dems are beginning to heighten rather than soft-pedal the policy contrasts between the parties. Wounded politically by perceptions that the ACA helps the poor at the expense of working people, they are looking for proposals attractive to the middle class. Emboldened by accelerating growth and employment gains, they are perhaps shedding inhibitions about leveling the playing field between workers and management. (..)To mess up my timeline a bit, Obama delivered a Pikettian narrative in Dec 2013 ..should have been a landmark speech on inequality (..) if he (and Dems) hadn't (tried to) protect their Senate majority. [In the Dec 2013 soeech] Obama zeroed in on policy choices. "As values of community broke down and competitive pressure increased, businesses lobbied Washington to weaken unions and the value of the minimum wage. As the trickle-down ideology became more prominent, taxes were slashes for the wealthiest while investments in things that make us all richer, like schools and infrastructure, were allowed to wither. And for a certain period of time we could ignore this weakening economic foundation (..) But when the music stopped and the crisis hit, millions of families were stripped of whatever cushion they had left. And the result is an economy that’s become profoundly unequal and families that are more insecure. -- terrific links roundup
US_economy  US_politics  Obama  Obama_administration  Reagan  supply-side  trickle-down  neoliberalism  inequality  middle_class  wages  wages-minimum  labor  labor_law  labor_share  labor_standards  Labor_markets  investment  executive_compensation  1-percent  infrastructure  education  education-higher  civic_virtue  common_good  Piketty  economic_growth  economic_culture  distribution-income  distribution-wealth  unemployment  health_care  public_goods  public_opinion  public_policy  elections  political_culture  political_economy  political_discourse  political_participation  Pocket 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Barry Eichengreen - Secular Stagnation: The Long View | NBER Working Paper No. 20836 Issued in January 2015
NBER Program(s): DAE Four explanations for secular stagnation are distinguished: a rise in global saving, slow population growth that makes investment less attractive, averse trends in technology and productivity growth, and a decline in the relative price of investment goods. A long view from economic history is most supportive of the last of these four views.
paper  paywall  macroeconomics  US_economy  OECD_economies  economic_growth  secular_stagnation 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
How the US Resolved Its First Debt Ceiling Crisis | Liberty Street Economics - March 2013
downloaded pdf to iPhone - the post has full text but without the references in the pdf -- In the second half of 1953, the United States, for the first time, risked exceeding the statutory limit on Treasury debt. How did Congress, the White House, and Treasury officials deal with the looming crisis? As related in this post, they responded by deferring and reducing expenditures, by monetizing “free” gold that remained from the devaluation of the dollar in 1934, and ultimately by raising the debt ceiling.
paper  downloaded  post-WWII  US_economy  US_politics  military-industrial_complex  monetary_policy  Bretton_Woods  international_monetary_system  FX  fiscal_policy  budget_deficit  Congress  sovereign_debt 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
James Hamilton - Demand factors in the collapse of oil prices | Econbrowser Jan 2015
update of his analysis from a month ago - still sees c. 40% of price declines across commodities from slowing hlobal economy with exception of US
global_economy  US_economy  Eurozone  China  oil_price  economic_growth  energy  consumer_demand  commodities 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Maarten van ’t Riet, Arjan Lejour - Tax inversion remains (huge) | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 05 January 2015 -
The recent actions of the US Treasury to rein in corporate tax inversions leave their rationale largely intact. This column discusses new evidence suggesting that the potential tax benefits of inversions are still huge. The recent Treasury measures raised legal obstacles, but the heart of the problem remains unaddressed. At some point a new technique is likely to be found to circumvent the new measures – just as happened with earlier measures. This is a worldwide problem.
US_economy  US_govetnment  MNCs  taxes  tax_havens  M&A 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Laurent Belsie - The Link between High Employment and Labor Market Fluidity | NBER Digest - Jan 2015
Declining rates of creative destruction and factor reallocation raise concerns about future productivity growth and youth employment. U.S. labor markets lost much of their fluidity well before the onset of the Great Recession, according to Labor Market Fluidity and Economic Performance (NBER Working Paper No. 20479). The economy's ability to move jobs quickly from shrinking firms to young, growing enterprises slowed after 1990. Job reallocation rates fell by more than a quarter. After 2000, the volume of hiring and firing - known as the worker reallocation rate - also dropped. The decline was broad-based, affecting multiple industries, states, and demographic groups. The groups that suffered the most were the less-educated and the young, particularly young men.
US_economy  economic_history  1990s  2000s  2010s  links  creative_destruction  labor_markets  unemployment  wages  competition  firm-theory  economic_growth 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Brad DeLong - Comment on Eberly and Krishnamurthy: Efficient Credit Policies in a Housing Debt Crisis - Jan 2015
On a Brookings study (pdf link) & panel re foreclosure crisis & housing construction way below pre-bubble trend & population growth -- The single-family housing credit channel has not been restored to its old status. Is this a good finance pattern? Was the previous pattern a poor idea in the first place? Or is the country now incurring enormous societal welfare losses due to the Obama administration's failure to use its administrative powers to fix the housing-finance credit channel?
US_economy  financial_system  Great_Recession  housing  banking  securitization  financial_crisis  GSEs  Obama_administration 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Brad DeLong - My "Sisyphus as Social Democrat: A review of 'John Kenneth Galbraith: His Life, His Politics, His Economics', by Richard Parker," ( Grasping Reality...)
One of his series, "Hoisted from the Archives": J. Bradford DeLong (2005), "Sisyphus as Social Democrat: A review of John Kenneth Galbraith: His Life, His Politics, His Economics, by Richard Parker," Foreign Affairs May/June 2005. - diwnloaded pdf to iPhone
article  book  review  biography  intellectual_history  20thC  political_economy  economic_sociology  economic_theory  US_economy  US_politics  post-WWII  entre_deux_guerres  Great_Depression  WWII  US_government  US_foreign_policy  Keynesian  institutional_economics  liberalism  social_democracy  Galbraith_JK  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Brad DeLong - Yes, the Past Four Years Are Powerful Evidence for the Keynesian View of What Happens at the Zero Lower Bound. Why Do You Ask?: Daily Focus Jan 6 2015
Quotes Krugman post re austerity impact since 2010 - "Annual data on the growth of real GDP and of government purchases from Eurostat…. 33 countries for 4 years, 132 observations…. Does this picture make you think that Keynesian economics is nonsense?… The raw observations are consistent with the view that in depressed economies, cutting government spending hurts growth." - DeLong adds what multipliers look like as well as how ridiculous the reverse-causation argument (falling GNP -> reduced gov't spending) would look with the Eurostat data - saved to Pocket
GNP  UK_economy  21stC  Eurozone  economic_growth  stats  economic_theory  Great_Recession  keynesian  fiscal  policy  economic_history  austerity  us_economy  Krugman  Pocket 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Menzie Chin - The Dollar’s Recent Rise in Perspective | Econbrowser Jan 2015
"My own personal worries revolve around emerging markets. As noted (e.g., [3]), and appreciating dollar implies a deterioration in emerging market firm balance sheets when there are large amounts of dollar debt. Fixed or semi-fixed exchange rates will mitigate this effect if sustainable; otherwise, pernicious feedback loops are going to be established. I particularly worry about the dollar appreciation in conjunction with increasing yields in the US. Rising US yields would likely pull financial capital from emerging markets, with particularly negative effects on growth..." -- Saved to Evernote for charts especially for impact of 1980s strong dollar
global_economy  FX  US_economy  dollar  emerging_markets  sovereign_debt  interest_rates  economic_growth  capital_flows  financial_crisis  central_banks  Fed  QE  contagion  international_political_economy  competitiveness  trade  balance_of_payments  capital_markets  commodities  asset_prices  spreads  20thC  post-WWII  Evernote 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Eric Rauchway, review - Martin Wolf, The Shifts and the Shocks (2014) | TLS Jan 2015
... his analysis, which holds that we knew how to avoid, counter and cure these troubles; we have simply – largely out of wilful ignorance and lack of courage – failed to do more than the barest minimum of what was necessary. Governments, banks and international institutions did “just enough, almost too late” to prevent the worst possible result, which would have been a note-for-note replay of the 1930s including a slide into fascism and world war. But having done no more than avoid world-historic catastrophe, we find ourselves mired in a dim morass of our own making, with no sunlit uplands in sight. Wolf offers a persuasive account that is also clear, though he relies on no single factor but several: hence the title of the book. It took both long-term shifts and a series of shocks to cause a crisis of such magnitude. Our world was born in the end of the Cold War. With capitalism triumphant, the victors liberalized their economies and so did the Communist nations, particularly China. Yet all was not well in this brave new world; international finance and trade threatened the stability of smaller, emerging economies, as the crises of the 1990s demonstrated.
financialization  bad_history  shadow  banking  Pocket  risk  global  economy  money  markets  global_imbalance  keynesian  business_influence  bad_economics  books  financial_regulation  liquidity  deregulation  minsky  investment  economic_growth  reviews  fed  Bank_of_England  great_recession  us_politics  leverage  capital_flows  race-to-the-bottom  business  ethics  political_economy  ecb  rents  uk  central_banks  investors  financial  crisis  financial_system  austerity  capital  economic_theory  us_economy  eurozone 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Clement Fatovic - Reason and Experience in Alexander Hamilton’s Science of Politics | JSTOR: American Political Thought, Vol. 2, No. 1 (Spring 2013), pp. 1-30
Alexander Hamilton is often described as an enterprising modernist who promoted forward-looking reforms that broke with established institutions and ideas. However, the scale and apparent novelty of his reforms have tended to obscure the extent to which those innovations were rooted in a belief that knowledge and practice must be guided by “experience.” This article argues that even Hamilton’s most far-reaching reforms were grounded in a Humean understanding of the limits of rationality in explaining and controlling the world. Hamilton’s agreement with David Hume on the epistemic authority of experience helps explain his positions on constitutional design, executive power, democratic politics, public opinion, and other important political issues. Moreover, the epistemological underpinnings of Hamilton’s political thought are significant because they suggest that a “science of politics” grounded in experience can avoid some of the dangers associated with more rationalistic approaches yet still be quite open to significant innovation in politics. - as much or more Hume's various essays as Hamilton
article  jstor  intellectual_history  political_philosophy  moral_philosophy  18thC  British_history  British_politics  US_history  US_constitution  US_politics  US_economy  political_economy  political_culture  economic_culture  epistemology  epistemology-social  US_government  public_opinion  public_finance  democracy  republicanism  republics-Ancient_v_Modern  fiscal-military_state  sovereign_debt  Hume  Hume-politics  Hamilton  Founders  Early_Republic  bibliography  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Barry Bosworth - Sources of Real Wage Stagnation | Brookings Dec 2014
The new phenomenon is the decline in labor’s share of income for which we have no satisfactory explanation. It may reflect the huge rents that accrued to commodity producers during the boom of the last decade, and as that comes to an end labor’s share may rise toward the historical norm. However, some analysts point to the development of a highly competitive global market for labor combined with a more general reduction in product-market competition through reliance of mergers, IT patents, and regulations that suggest a reduced labor share may be a longer-lasting phenomenon.
rents  economic_growth  labor  inequality  productivity  21stc  wages  20thc  monopolies  profits  globalization  ip  economic_history  us_economy  Pocket 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
The Impact of Financial Market Volatility on Emerging Market Economies - Sangyup Choi PhD advisee of Roger Farmer
To understand why an increase in the VIX has a much larger impact on output fluctuations in emerging market economies than on the U.S. economy, I build a small open economy model with credit market imperfections. The model incorporates a portfolio decision by international investors and an increase in the VIX makes these investors withdraw their funds from emerging markets. In Sam’s theory, VIX shocks, in a world of integrated capital markets, cause investors to pull their money from emerging markets. Because emerging market economies have poorly developed credit markets, the sudden outflow of cash causes domestic firms to cut back on production and lay off workers.
uncertainty  global  governance  economic_theory  capital  markets  us_economy  financial_system  economy  emerging  Pocket 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Monetary Policy: A Lesson Learned
Nice potted comparison of Fed inaction in 1930s vs recent agressive QE --The post-crisis actions of the Fed and responses of the banks have a very important implication. Quite a few observers argued that a massive increase in reserves would lead to an uncontrolled inflation. Had the money multiplier in the bottom chart been stable, they would have been right. However, when a financial crisis impairs the banking system, reserve increases do not translate into money creation, so they are not inflationary. In fact, as the experience of the 1930s taught us, in the absence of aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve, the financial crisis probably would have led to deflation and a second Great Depression.
economic_history  Great_Depression  Great_Recession  monetary_policy  Fed  QE  US_economy 
december 2014 by dunnettreader
Yogi Berra and the Dollar
great post on relation of exchange rates to interest rates, capital flows and economic growth
FX  Fed  interest_rates  US_economy  economic_growth  Germany  Eurozone  20thC  21stC  capital_flows  balance_of_payments 
december 2014 by dunnettreader
Re-Reading My Weblog: March 2005
DeLong links to 2005 posts and papers showing that by 2005 it was already becoming clear there were no potential GOP partners for any sensible compromise fiscal and monrtary policies - the "thought leaders" on the Right, including folks like Mankiew, had all descended into pure hackery. The Social Security "privatization" scheme was a simple attempted bamboozle on behalf if Eall Street wjich ess drooling at the thought of fres for managing all those forced savings accounts. DeLong along with Krugman did a paper in asset prices and growth rates that illustrated what a ripoff the GOP plan from the Bush Admin would be. And that was just one smong a number of 2005 episodes that DeLong's posts exposed. Key is that the posts are contemporaneous, nt benefiting from hindsight after the 2008 crash.
US_politics  US_economy  bad_economics  links  GOP  21stC  propaganda 
december 2014 by dunnettreader
Regulating Money Market Mutual Funds: An Update — Money, Banking and Financial Markets - July 2014
The SEC has finally acted(..) 859 pages of new rules for the operation of some money market funds. To summarize our reaction: we are underwhelmed! It is hard to see how the new rules will reduce systemic risk in any meaningful way. We first wrote about money market funds in May. The original post is here. (..) Let’s start by summarizing the new final regulation. It has three parts: 1) It applies to institutional prime money funds only. 2) These funds are required to have floating net asset values (NAV). 3) Fund boards will have the option to impose liquidity fees and redemption gates if the funds “weekly liquid assets” fall below a threshold. -- This new framework simply will not stop runs. Discretionary liquidity fees and redemption gates increase the risks of a run, not decrease them. Think about it. If you are worried that a fund you own is about to impose a 1% or 2% fee for withdrawals, would you wait around until they did it? What if you became concerned that the fund would suspend redemptions for the next two weeks? Rational, prudent, informed institutional investors will do exactly what we all expect: withdraw ASAP! -- good discussion of various recommendations and research, but it comes down to the MMFs are acting like depository institutions and should be required to maintain capital buffers and pay an FDIC fee. Liquidity fees might be imposed at all times across the board - probably wouldn't do much in a crunch but at least wouldn't create *incentives* for bank runs!
US_economy  financial_system  financial_crisis  banking  bank_runs  shadow_banking  NBFI  SEC  FDIC  capital_adequacy 
november 2014 by dunnettreader
Special Issue in Memory of Charles Tilly (1929–2008): Cities, States, Trust, and Rule - Contents | JSTOR: Theory and Society, Vol. 39, No. 3/4, May 2010
1 - Cities, states, trust, and rule: new departures from the work of Charles Tilly - Michael Hanagan and Chris Tilly [d-load] *-* 2 - Cities, states, and trust networks: Chapter 1 of 'Cities and States in World History' - Charles Tilly [d-load] *-* 3 - Unanticipated consequences of "humanitarian intervention": The British campaign to abolish the slave trade, 1807-1900 - Marcel van der Linden [d-load] *-* 4 - Is there a moral economy of state formation? Religious minorities and repertoires of regime integration in the Middle East and Western Europe, 600-1614 - Ariel Salzmann [d-load] *-* 5 - Inclusiveness and exclusion: trust networks at the origins of European cities - Wim Blockmans [d-load] *-* 6 - Colonial legacy of ethno-racial inequality in Japan - Hwaji Shin. *-* 7 - Legacies of empire? - Miguel Angel Centeno and Elaine Enriquez. *-* 8 - Cities and states in geohistory - Edward W. Soja [d-load] *-* 9 - From city club to nation state: business networks in American political development - Elisabeth S. Clemens [d-load] *-* 10 - Irregular armed forces, shifting patterns of commitment, and fragmented sovereignty in the developing world - Diane E. Davis *-* 11 - Institutions and the adoption of rights: political and property rights in Colombia - Carmenza Gallo *-* 12 - Taking Tilly south: durable inequalities, democratic contestation, and citizenship in the Southern Metropolis - Patrick Heller and Peter Evans *-* 13 - Industrial welfare and the state: nation and city reconsidered - Smita Srinivas *-* 14 - The forms of power and the forms of cities: building on Charles Tilly - Peter Marcuse [d-load] *-* 15 - Was government the solution or the problem? The role of the state in the history of American social policy
journal  article  jstor  social_theory  political_sociology  contention  social_movements  change-social  historical_sociology  nation-state  cities  city_states  urban_politics  urban_elites  urbanization  urban_development  economic_sociology  institutions  institutional_change  property_rights  civil_liberties  civil_society  political_participation  political_culture  inequality  class_conflict  development  colonialism  abolition  medieval_history  state-building  religious_culture  politics-and-religion  MENA  Europe-Early_Modern  Reformation  networks-business  US_history  US_politics  US_economy  welfare_state  power-asymmetric  power-symbolic  elites  elite_culture  imperialism  empires  trust  networks-social  networks-religious  networks  14thC  15thC  16thC  17thC  18thC  19thC  20thC  geohistory  moral_economy  military_history  militia  guerrillas  mercenaires  sovereignty  institution-building 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Home - Path to Full Employment | Project of Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
For most of the last few decades, the U.S. labor market has operated with considerable slack. Periods of full employment have been the exception, not the rule. In response, Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and previously Vice President Biden’s chief economic adviser, and the Center have begun a multiyear project to focus greater attention on the goal of reaching full employment and develop policy ideas to achieve this critical goal. To learn more about the project, visit our events page to watch our April 2 kick-off event at the National Press Club. To read a set of papers on policy ideas to get back to full employment, go to our papers’ page (this event was made possible thanks to a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation). -- Launched with big event and clutch of papers in April 2014 -- downloaded to Note pdf of Jared Bernstein's project overview paper -- as of October 2014 no new activity
US_economy  US_government  US_society  US_politics  Congress  Great_Recession  inequality  unemployment  labor  labor_law  labor_share  wages  wages-minimum  labor_standards  fiscal_policy  state_government  infrastructure  investment  downloaded  EF-add 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
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