daguti + statistics   166

Scott Osborn - During WWII, the Navy tried to determine where they...
Diana Young posted t his, but I'm saving this link because she has her post set to "Friends only"

Wow... amazing. The importance of analyzing the whole data set.

"During WWII, the Navy tried to determine where they needed to armor their aircraft to ensure they came back home. They ran an analysis of where planes had been shot up, and came up with this.

Obviously the places that needed to be up-armored are the wingtips, the central body, and the elevators. That’s where the planes were all getting shot up.

Abraham Wald, a statistician, disagreed. He thought they should better armor the nose area, engines, and mid-body. Which was crazy, of course. That’s not where the planes were getting shot.

Except Mr. Wald realized what the others didn’t. The planes were getting shot there too, but they weren’t making it home. What the Navy thought it had done was analyze where aircraft were suffering the most damage. What they had actually done was analyze where aircraft could suffer the most damage without catastrophic failure. All of the places that weren’t hit? Those planes had been shot there and crashed. They weren’t looking at the whole sample set, only the survivors."

Archived here:
http://archive.is/Ql36r
analysis  statistics  military 
7 weeks ago by daguti
Giuliani now says the fact Trump signed a Letter of Intent for Trump Moscow is meaningless -- but just a few days ago Giuliani insisted Trump hadn't signed it. In related news, up is down, black is white, and we have always been at war with Oceania. : Mar
strategy, lies-lying = "I can't find it quickly, I'll search later,

But Guiliani tipped his hand at his strategy and this fits right in.

He said in an interview that his plan was to spread as many differing stories, as much misinformation as possible, to cloud the truth.

He feels that this isn't going to come down to a court of law, it's going to come down to public opinion .(The theory is that he will be facing impeachment, not criminal charges.. at least during his presidency) and the "jurors" on that case will judge based on their constituents' desires.

If he can keep enough people doubting Meuller's story by clouding the waters with misinformation, then he can keep Trump in office."


GREAT COMMENT:
statistics, religion = (I am implying the religion part myself)
"I swear, if humanity had a better instinctive understanding of statistics and how randomness works we'd be **SO** much better off.



As it is it takes weeks, even months, of study to understand why that's a BS belief, and even then it only make sense on a sort of rarefied intellectual level not down in our emotions where we form so many of our beliefs."

GREAT COMMENT:
books-to-buy = "“Now I will tell you the answer to my question. It is this. The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power. What pure power means you will understand presently. We are different from the oligarchies of the past in that we know what we are doing. All the others, even those who resembled ourselves, were cowards and hypocrites. The German Nazis and the Russian Communists came very close to us in their methods, but they never had the courage to recognize their own motives. They pretended, perhaps they even believed, that they had seized power unwillingly and for a limited time, and that just around the corner there lay a paradise where human beings would be free and equal. We are not like that. We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now you begin to understand me.” ― George Orwell, 1984"
people-donald-trump  news  2018  corruption  crime  strategy  lies-lying  statistics  religion  books-to-buy 
december 2018 by daguti
Jordan Peterson Why Nice Guys Finish Last - YouTube
personal-development, me-stuff = Being agreeable sounds like a good thing (it's been my inadvertent/ingrained guiding principle in life), but it doesn't do you any good when you're trying to build a career. @1:46 "One of the things you have to be careful of if you're agreeable is not to be exploited - because you'll line up to be exploited. And I think the reason for that is you're wired to be exploited by infants."

@2:02 "One of the things that happens in psychotherapy, when people come because they're too agreeable. They come for assertiveness training - and though it's not exactly assertiveness that's being trained. What it is is the ability to learn to negotiate on their own behalf. And one of the things I tell agreeable people, especially if they're e conscientious is 'Say what you think. Tell the truth about what you think. There's going to be things you think that you think are nasty and harsh - and they probably are nasty and harsh, but they're also probably true. And you need to bring those up to the forefront and deliver the message and it's not straightforward at all, because agreeable people do not like conflict. Not at all. They smooth the water. You know - and you can see why that is in accordance with the hypothesis that I've been putting forward: You don't want conflict around infants. It's too damn dangerous. You don't want fights to break out. You don't want anything to disturb the relative peace. If you're also more prone to being hurt physically, and perhaps emotionally, you're also maybe loathe to engage in the high intensity conflict that will solve problems in the short-term. Because it takes a lot of conflict to solve problems in the short-term."

children, childrearing = "The advantage to having a well-socialized disagreeable person is that they don't let much get in their way. So if you can get a kid who's disagreeable socialized, that person can be quite the preacher, because they're very forward moving in their nature and very difficult to stop. But if you don't get them successfully domesticated - tamed, roughly speaking by the time they're 4, their peers reject them. And that's a big problem because your job as a parent is to make your child socially desirable by the age of 4. You want to burn that into your brain, because people don't know that. That's your job. Here's why: It's easy if you think about it carefully. So you imagine you've got a 3 year old child, so sort of halfway through that initial period of socialization and you take that child out in public. What do you want for the child? You want the child to both be able to interact with children and adults so that the children are welcoming and smile and want to play with him or her and so that the adults are happy to see the child and treat him or her properly. And if your child is a horrible little monster because you're afraid to discipline them or oyou don't know how to do that properly, then what they're going to do is experience nothing but rejection from other children and false smiles from other parents and adults. So then you're throwing the child out there into the world so that every single face that they see is either hostile or lying. And that's not something that's going to be very conducive to the mental-health or well-being of your child. Your child can learn a couple simple rules of behavior like 'Don't interrupt adults when they're talking' and 'Pay attention and try not to hit the other kids over the head with a truck' and 'Share and play properly', then when they meet the other kids, the kids are going to try a few play routines and it's going to go well and they'll go off and socialize each other for the rest of their lives. Because that's what happens is that from 4 years old onwards, the primary socialization of children takes place among other children and so if the kids don't get in on that early, they don't move into that developmental spiral upwards and they're left behind. And you can imagine how terrible that is, because a 4 year old will not play with another 4 year old who's 2. But a 5 year old will not play with another 5 year old who's 2, because the gap is just starting to get unbelievably large and so the kids start out behind and then the peers leave them behind and then those kids are alienated and outside the peer group for the rest of their lives. And those are the ones that grow up to be long-term anti-social. They're already aggressive. It doesn't dip down. And what happens to normal boys, roughly speaking, imagine the aggressive 2-year-old types, they get socialized, so their level of aggression goes down, and then they hit puberty and testosterone kicks in and BAM, levels of aggression go up. And that's why males are criminals between the ages of 16 and 25."

statistics = Said in a podcast either with Joe Rogan or Jocko Willink: "60% of men are disagreeable and 40% of women are disagreeable. Not much difference - it's not 90/10. But the edges are what matter. Said in this video @ 0:38. "Even though men and women on average aren't very different in terms of their level of agreeableness by the group, if you go out and look at their extremes, they're very different. So all of the most agreeable people are women and all of the most disagreeable people are men. And the thing is: The extremes are often what matter, rather than what is in the middle. And so one of the ways that's reflected in society is there's way more men in prison."
people-jordan-peterson  personal-development  me-stuff  statistics  childrearing  children 
february 2018 by daguti
Seth's Blog: The real law of averages
This is so, so, so relevant:
"If you care about health and a culture of performance, it's tempting to push Olympic athletes to go just a tenth of a second faster. It's far more effective, though, if you can get 3,000,000 kids to each spend five more minutes a day walking instead of sitting.

Organizations pamper and challenge the few in the executive suite, imagining that one more good decision in the biz dev group could pay off.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
[me: AND NOW FOR THE MOST IMPORTANT SENTENCE] The thing is, if every one of the 10,000 customer-facing employees was more engaged and kind, it would have a far bigger impact on the company and those it serves."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
people-seth-godin  strategy  statistics  business-culture  management  leadership 
november 2017 by daguti
Can drugmakers buy doctor loyalty with free meals? - UPI.com
.
THIS IS THE ARTICLE YOU'RE LOOKING FOR...

When you're looking to show that something as small as a meal can influence the behavior of a doctor.

However, note FTA:
"However, the study did not prove a cause-and-effect relationship. It may be that doctors attend industry events where information is provided on drugs they already prefer, the authors noted.

Dr. David Grande, an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Pennsylvania's Perelman School of Medicine, in Philadelphia, thinks that's unlikely.

"These findings provide even more support to do away with gifts altogether," he said."
medicine-doctors-or-hospitals  corruption  money-as-a-corrupting-influence  medicine-pharmaceuticals-drugs-prescriptions  statistics  research-studies 
june 2016 by daguti
The Internet in Real Time : InternetIsBeautiful
Shows you various statistics like how may Tweets have been sent since you loaded the page, how many Twitter accounts have been created, how many Instagrams have been shared, how many Facebook posts have been created, etc
internet  statistics  visualization 
december 2014 by daguti
American ages through history [gif] : lostgeneration
An animated GIF showing how the baby boomers rippled through American society. Amazing how much it looks like a wave, starting out large at the left and then rippling right, while losing height.
time-age  visualization  statistics  countries-united-states-america 
july 2014 by daguti
The Best Length for Every Online Content
Covers ideal lengths for Twitter, Facebook, Google+, email subject lines, blog titles, etc, etc, etc.... ================== Of particular interest: "You may have noticed many sites online that have a different font for their lead paragraph than they do for the remainder of their text. Would you believe there is psychology at play here?" ... lesson: Make the first paragraph bigger and bolder than the rest of the article, so that it appears simpler to read.
analytics-metrics  twitter  social-media  facebook  size-scale  cognitive-load  blogging  blogging-titles-or-headlines  email  statistics  visualization 
april 2014 by daguti
D.A. Gutierrez’s Delicious Annual Stats
An annual report produced by Delicious that gives a bunch of interesting stats. For example, I've saved 2700+ links in 2013, so I'm in the top 1% of users. It also shows a Knex-like graph in which the hubs represent domains and are bigger or larger based on how many links you saved in that domain this year. Lots of other cool data visualizations.
dashboards  statistics  delicious  projects-computech  visualization 
january 2014 by daguti
Welcome to the Internet of Thingies: 61.5% of Web Traffic Is Not Human - Alexis C. Madrigal - The Atlantic
automation, programming-abstraction = "Because bots are not difficult to build. In fact, it's so simple that a journalist (who has not learned to code) can do it. I do it with a ($300) program called UBot Studio, which is an infrastructural piece of the botting world. It lets people like me program and execute simple scripts in browsers without (really) knowing any code. Do you need 100 Hotmail accounts? I got you. Perhaps you'd like some set of links autotweeted? I'm there. You want to scrape a few numbers from a government website or an online store? Easy. It'd take 10 minutes. "
internet  amazing  statistics  automation  bots  screen-scrapers  programming-abstraction 
december 2013 by daguti
Between Pigs And Anchovies: Where Humans Rank On The Food Chain : The Salt : NPR
evolvify-topics = Not related, but it'll help me find this in the future. ................................................... health, disease-cancer = Important: For those vegetarians who claim that meat means disease ---->50% of Iceland and Sweden's calories come from fish and other meat, but their cancer rates don't correlate: http://www.wcrf.org/cancer_statistics/cancer_frequency.php
food  statistics  evolvify-topics  disease-cancer  health 
december 2013 by daguti
▶ US Prison Population: The Largest in the World - YouTube
The United States incarcerates more people than any other country in the world—more even than China or Russia. Prof. Daniel J. D'Amico explains that as of 2010 more than 1.6 million people were serving jail sentences in America. Professor D'Amico suggests that "prisons are not what we think about when we think of America, and they shouldn't have to be." According to D'Amico, a free country should not have 1.6 million people in prison, and a fiscally responsible country cannot afford to. As Prof. D'Amico points out, it is time for Americans to recognize that the U.S. criminal justice system is desperately in need of reform. Learn More: 1. "The Caging of America" [article]: Wide ranging New Yorker piece, discusses history, ethics, everyday prisoner experience. Explores a few theories as to why our prison system is the way it is. http://nyr.kr/OGTXrd 2. "The Business Ethics of Incarceration: The Moral Implications of Treating...
prison  corruption  video  statistics  countries-united-states-america 
september 2013 by daguti
Netbook Shipments to Disappear Completely by 2015, says iSuppli
Also see this "tablets will die off" prediction: http://mashable.com/2013/04/30/blackberry-ceo-tablets/ --------------------------------------------------- Seeing how netbooks took off, an innovative company (rather than just jumping on the netbook bandwagon) might have drawn a line from "Full fledged computers" to "laptops" to "netbooks" and seen the trend that was pointing to something that hadn't yet been invented, but was relatively obvious: "tablets". In other words, PCs have gotten smaller and with less features with each successive "iteration". The next logical conclusion would have been a tablet-like device that had no network connection, no keyboard, just a screen for input and output, allowing for easy consumption of media.
history-computer  computers  computers-tablets  strategy  paradigm-shifts  statistics 
april 2013 by daguti
A Major Disconnect: Violent Crimes, Public Perception, and the American Prisoner - Ingot News
As of 2009, there were 188,000 prisoners in US Federal Prison, and fewer than 15,000 of them were in for violent crimes (7.9%)[iv]. A majority were in for non-violent drug-related crimes (nearly 100,000 or 51%). So while, by definition, the US is seeing a rise in “criminals”, it is not because of an increase in violent crimes, but is due to stricter punishments for petty, often victimless crimes.
prison  life-affirming  crime-violence  statistics 
april 2013 by daguti
The Real Republican Adversary? Population Density — Dave Troy: Fueled By Randomness
Just saw this link 11/18/2013 and realized that I just referenced this in an email to Steve: "However, the Republican ideologies on liberty, individualism and lack of regulation only work in a non-existent fantasy world where people don't live in close-knit societies." I probably should have said "densely populated societies" but the thought is the same.
politics  visualization  cities  politics-philosophies-republicans  statistics 
november 2012 by daguti
To Predict Dating Success, The Secret's In The Pronouns : Shots - Health Blog : NPR
"He says that by analyzing language you can easily tell who among two people has power in a relationship, and their relative social status.

"It's amazingly simple," Pennebaker says, "Listen to the relative use of the word "I."

What you find is completely different from what most people would think. The person with the higher status uses the word "I" less."
groups  psychology  statistics  relationships  language  relationships-dating  relationships-dating-online 
may 2012 by daguti
A game with a windfall for a knowing few - Boston.com
"Because of a quirk in the rules, when the jackpot reaches roughly $2 million and no one wins, payoffs for smaller prizes swell dramatically, which statisticians say practically assures a profit to anyone who buys at least $100,000 worth of tickets."
marketplace-gambling  statistics  mathematics  business-ideas-niche-abusing-the-law 
august 2011 by daguti
The Checkup - Teen birth rate hits record low
"When money is very tight, all of us think harder about taking risks, expanding our families, taking on new responsibilities," Brown said. "Now I know that teens may not be as savvy about money as those in their 20s and 30s - they probably don't stress over 401(k)s like the rest of us --but many teens live with financially stressed adults, and they see neighbors and older friends losing jobs and even losing houses. So they, too, feel the squeeze and may be reacting to it by being more prudent.... Maybe part of tightening our belts includes keeping our zippers closed, too!"
economic-recession-2008  children-teens  babies  large-systems  statistics  news  2010 
december 2010 by daguti
Facebook: Facts You Probably Didn't Know [INFOGRAPHIC]
Additional fact: one of the early investors in Facebook was the CIA's venture capital branch.
statistics  facebook  infomercials  visualization 
may 2010 by daguti
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