daguti + predictions   207

A simple, yet radical solution to solve Facebook's problems
Break it up and regulate it. Wow.

NOTE: I like this story a lot and since Yahoo is notorious for culling it's content, I don't want to be disappointed if this story disappears. Pinboard's archive function is flaky at best, so I archived it on archive.is (which is now pointing to archive.vn): http://archive.vn/pPUng
facebook  anti-something  legal-or-law  predictions 
january 2019 by daguti
73 Mind-Blowing Implications of Driverless Cars and Trucks
"73 Mind-Blowing Implications of Driverless Cars and Trucks
I originally wrote and published a version of this article in September 2016. Since then, quite a bit has happened, further cementing my view that these changes are coming and that the implications will be even more substantial. I decided it was time to update this article with some additional ideas and a few changes.

As I write this, Uber just announced that it just ordered 24,000 self-driving Volvos. Tesla just released an electric, long-haul tractor trailer with extraordinary technical specs (range, performance) and self-driving capabilities (UPS just preordered 125!). And, Tesla just announced what will probably be the quickest production car ever made — perhaps the fastest. It will go zero to sixty in about the time it takes you to read zero to sixty. And, of course, it will be able to drive itself. The future is quickly becoming now. Google just ordered thousands of Chryslers for its self-driving fleet (that are already on the roads in AZ).

In September of 2016, Uber had just rolled out its first self-driving taxis in Pittsburgh, Tesla and Mercedes were rolling out limited self-driving capabilities and cities around the world were negotiating with companies who want to bring self-driving cars and trucks to their cities. Since then, all of the major car companies have announced significant steps towards mostly or entirely electric vehicles, more investments have been made in autonomous vehicles, driverless trucks now seem to be leading rather than following in terms of the first large scale implementations and there’ve been a few more incidents (i.e. accidents).

I believe that the timeframe for significant adoption of this technology has shrunk in the past year as technology has gotten better faster and as the trucking industry has increased its level of interest and investment.

I believe that my daughter, who is now just over 1 years old, will never have to learn to drive or own a car.

The impact of driverless vehicles will be profound and impact almost every part of our lives.

Below are my updated thoughts about what a driverless future will be like. Some of these updates are from feedback to my original article (thanks to those who contributed!!!), some are based on technology advances in the past year and others are just my own speculations.

What could happen when cars and trucks drive themselves?

1. People won’t own their own cars. Transport will be delivered as a service from companies who own fleets of self-driving vehicles. There are so many technical, economic, safety advantages to the transportation-as-a-service that this change may come much faster than most people expect. Owning a vehicle as an individual will become a novelty for collectors and maybe competitive racers.

2. Software/technology companies will own more of the world’s economy as companies like Uber, Google and Amazon turn transportation into a pay-as-you-go service. Software will indeed eat this world. Over time, they’ll own so much data about people, patterns, routes and obstacles that new entrants will have huge barriers to enter the market

3. Without government intervention (or some sort of organized movement), there will be a tremendous transfer of wealth to a very small number of people who own the software, battery/power manufacturing, vehicle servicing and charging/power generation/maintenance infrastructure. There will be massive consolidation of companies serving these markets as scale and efficiency will become even more valuable. Cars (perhaps they’ll be renamed with some sort-of-clever acronym) will become like the routers that run the Internet — most consumers won’t know or care who made them or who owns them.

4. Vehicle designs will change radically — vehicles won’t need to withstand crashes in the same way, all vehicles will be electric (self-driving + software + service providers = all electric). They may look different, come in very different shapes and sizes, maybe attach to each other in some situations. There will likely be many significant innovations in materials used for vehicle construction — for example, tires and brakes will be re-optimized with very different assumptions, especially around variability of loads and much more controlled environments. The bodies will likely be primarily made of composites (like carbon fiber and fiberglass) and 3D printed. Electric vehicles with no driver controls will require 1/10th or fewer the number of parts (perhaps even 1/100th) and thus will be quicker to produce and require much less labor. There may even be designs with almost no moving parts (other than wheels and motors, obviously).

5. Vehicles will mostly swap batteries rather than serve as the host of battery charging. Batteries will be charged in distributed and highly optimized centers — likely owned by the same company as the vehicles or another national vendor. There may be some entrepreneurial opportunity and a marketplace for battery charging and swapping, but this industry will likely be consolidated quickly. The batteries will be exchanged without human intervention — likely in a carwash-like drive thru

6. Vehicles (being electric) will be able to provide portable power for a variety of purposes (which will also be sold as a service) — construction job sites (why use generators), disaster/power failures, events, etc. They may even temporarily or permanently replace power distribution networks (i.e. power lines) for remote locations — imagine a distributed power generation network with autonomous vehicles providing “last mile” services to some locations

7. Driver’s licenses will slowly go away as will the Department of Motor Vehicles in most states. Other forms of ID may emerge as people no longer carry driver’s licenses. This will probably correspond with the inevitable digitization of all personal identification — via prints, retina scans or other biometric scanning

8. There won’t be any parking lots or parking spaces on roads or in buildings. Garages will be repurposed — maybe as mini loading docks for people and deliveries. Aesthetics of homes and commercial buildings will change as parking lots and spaces go away. There will be a multi-year boom in landscaping and basement and garage conversions as these spaces become available

9. Traffic policing will become redundant. Police transport will also likely change quite a bit. Unmanned police vehicles may become more common and police officers may use commercial transportation to move around routinely. This may dramatically change the nature of policing, with newfound resources from the lack of traffic policing and dramatically less time spent moving around

10. There will be no more local mechanics, car dealers, consumer car washes, auto parts stores or gas stations. Towns that have been built around major thoroughfares will change or fade

11. The auto insurance industry as we know it will go away (as will the significant investing power of the major players of this industry). Most car companies will go out of business, as will most of their enormous supplier networks. There will be many fewer net vehicles on the road (maybe 1/10th, perhaps even less) that are also more durable, made of fewer parts and much more commoditized

12. Traffic lights and signs will become obsolete. Vehicles may not even have headlights as infrared and radar take the place of the human light spectrum. The relationship between pedestrians (and bicycles) and cars and trucks will likely change dramatically. Some will come in the form of cultural and behavioral changes as people travel in groups more regularly and walking or cycling becomes practical in places where it isn’t today

13. Multi-modal transportation will become a more integrated and normal part of our ways of moving around. In other words, we’ll often take one type of vehicle to another, especially when traveling longer distances. With coordination and integration, the elimination of parking and more deterministic patterns, it will become ever-more efficient to combine modes of transport

14. The power grid will change. Power stations via alternative power sources will become more competitive and local. Consumers and small businesses with solar panels, small scale tidal or wave power generators, windmills and other local power generation will be able to sell KiloWattHours to the companies who own the vehicles. This will change “net metering” rules and possibly upset the overall power delivery model. It might even be the beginning of truly distributed power creation and transport. There will likely be a significant boom in innovation in power production and delivery models. Over time, ownership of these services will probably be consolidated across a very small number of companies

15. Traditional petroleum products (and other fossil fuels) will become much less valuable as electric cars replace fuel powered vehicles and as alternative energy sources become more viable with portability of power (transmission and conversion eat tons of power). There are many geopolitical implications to this possible shift. As implications of climate change become ever-clearer and present, these trends will likely accelerate. Petroleum will continue to be valuable for making plastics and other derived materials, but will not be burned for energy at any scale. Many companies, oil-rich countries and investors have already begun accommodating for these changes

16. Entertainment funding will change as the auto industry’s ad spending goes away. Think about how many ads you see or hear about cars, car financing, car insurance, car accessories and car dealers. There are likely to be many other structural and cultural changes that come from the dramatic changes to the transportation industry. We’ll stop saying “shift into high gear” and other driving-related colloquialisms as the references will be lost on future … [more]
predictions  future  cars  cars-electric  cars-self-driving 
march 2018 by daguti
André Staltz - The Web began dying in 2014, here's how
predictions, obsolete-discontinued-abandoned = "The Web may die like most other technologies do: simply by becoming less attractive than newer technologies. And like most obsolete technologies, they don’t suddenly disappear, neither do they disappear completely. You can still buy a Walkman and listen to a tape with it, but the technology has nevertheless lost its collective relevance. The Web’s death will come as a gradual decay of its necessity, not as a dramatic loss."
google  facebook  analysis  history-computer  internet  history-business  amazon.com  strategy  obsolete-discontinued-abandoned  predictions 
december 2017 by daguti
NWO EXPOSED: The End Game for Mass Depopulation - Ebola, vaccinations, zombies, Georgia Guidestones, the microchip, chemtrails, Project Blue Beam, and "aliens". How it all comes together. : EbolaHoax
UPDATE 2016-08-31: Failed miserably. The guy who posted this deleted all the details and then deleted his post, so it shows up as posted by [deleted] - Nothing has happened, Ebola went away and nothing dramatic that can even remotely be corroborated by this post has happened in the world.
conspiracy  predictions-failed  predictions 
september 2016 by daguti
Episode 688: Brilliant vs. Boring : Planet Money : NPR
"In 2006, Warren Buffett posed a challenge. He bet that the smartest hedge fund managers out there couldn't beat the world's simplest, most brainless investment. In this show, we tell you who's winning."
people-warren-buffett  investing  predictions  audio 
march 2016 by daguti
Self-driving cars could disrupt the airline and hotel industries within 20 years as people sleep in their vehicles on the road, according to a senior strategist at Audi. : Futurology
"If you think about it, the auto insurance industry, auto-body repair industry, and civil governments that rely on traffic tickets are all going to be drastically affected as well."
cars-self-driving  business-disruption  airlines  hotels  future  predictions 
december 2015 by daguti
The Sharing Economy Isn't a Niche. It's the Future of Market Capitalism.
"Rather than cause the death of capitalism, these technological developments will redefine what it means to be an employer, an employee and a customer." .............. restaurants = "Take ChowNow, which offers restaurants a platform to manage online orders. Instead of reinventing the wheel and building out its own delivery platform, it leveraged the growing shared economy movement and launched a partnership with Uber to fulfill deliveries."
capitalism  future  predictions  economics  analysis  work  career  restaurants 
november 2015 by daguti
Diana Young - ...having read Brave New World again recently, it's...
books-to-buy = Lois Lowry's "The Giver", George Orwell's "Animal Farm" and Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World"
predictions  people-aldous-huxley  books-to-buy 
october 2015 by daguti
'Definite Evidence' Of Alien Life Within 20-30 Years, NASA Chief Scientist Says : The Two-Way : NPR
Damn... no War Of The Worlds: "But she was quick to add: "We are not talking about little green men. We are talking about little microbes.""
space-seti-or-seti-like  nasa  predictions  metaphysics-aliens-ufos-crop-circles 
april 2015 by daguti
▶ Steve Jobs Foretold the Downfall of Apple! - YouTube
fail = The only appropriate tag about failure and why companies might fail. I might have to come up with a better tag. ... UPDATE: predictions-of-downfall and 'obsolete-discontinued-abandoned'
video  people-steve-jobs  quotes  predictions  fail  strategy  design-product  predictions-of-downfall  obsolete-discontinued-abandoned 
december 2014 by daguti
Stephen Hawking warns artificial intelligence could end mankind. : technology
First Elon Musk, now Stephen Hawking. Perhaps AI is in that "special class" of item (like nuclear weapons) that must be regulated. Definitely going to be a tough thing to do, as AI has a lot more positive use cases than nuclear does.
people-stephen-hawking  end-of-the-world  predictions  warnings  predictions-of-downfall  intelligence-artificial 
december 2014 by daguti
Facebook like an infectious disease, will lose 80 percent of users, says Princeton study - NBC News.com
I bookmarked this separately, but a day after this Princeton study, Facebook "debunked" it: http://thenextweb.com/facebook/2014/01/23/facebook-uses-princetons-research-methods-critique-doomsday-study/ ....................... Some followup: http://mashable.com/2014/01/30/facebook-teens-good-news/

UPDATE 2017-11-15: Facebook is as strong as ever, with new Facebook Ads gurus coming out every day and people running entire businesses off of it. The prediction has firmly failed.
predictions  facebook  predictions-failed  predictions-of-downfall 
january 2014 by daguti
BBC News - Young people 'feel they have nothing to live for'
predictions, long-term-thinking = This financial crisis is going to have long term effects on a generation of people that will ripple through the economy for years to come.
economic-recession-2008  health-mental-depression  long-term-thinking  predictions  suicide 
january 2014 by daguti
Netflix Will Lose Almost 2000 Movies Tomorrow
prediction = Netflix is losing 1794 titles because Warner wants people to pay $10/month to access their own proprietary service. Well, FUCK THEM. This might sound like a good deal for them in the short run, but they will soon come to learn that people don't want to go buy streaming services from each and every fucking distribution house. I don't want to pay Warner $10/mo and Starz $10/mo and HBO $10/mo. I'm predicting that this little spate of irrationality will come to an end when these places realize that centralized distribution is what most people want. In other words, 1-2 services will rule 5 or 10 years from now. Netflix and Amazon Instant, for example.
predictions  2013  news  companies-netflix 
may 2013 by daguti
It wasn't always this way. - Imgur
"Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the [Republican] party, and they're sure trying to do so, it's going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise. I know, I've tried to deal with them." - Barry Goldwater Said in November 1994, as quoted in John Dean, Conservatives Without Conscience (2006)
religion  predictions  politics-philosophies-republicans  warnings 
april 2013 by daguti
Contour Crafting: Automated Construction: Behrokh Khoshnevis at TEDxOjai - YouTube
future-faith-in-humanity = Around 10:00 or slightly later, he talks about all the advantages like using less material, lower carbon footprint, etc.
tedtalks  predictions  future-faith-in-humanity  future  printing-3d  construction 
february 2013 by daguti
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