Minimizing regret in dynamic decision problems - Springer
"The menu-dependent nature of regret minimization creates subtleties when it is applied to dynamic decision problems. It is not clear whether forgone opportunities should be included in the menu. We explain commonly observed behavioral patterns as minimizing regret when forgone opportunities are present. If forgone opportunities are included, we can characterize when a form of dynamic consistency is guaranteed."
to:NB  decision_theory  low-regret_learning  halpern.joseph_y. 
5 hours ago
Good manners: signaling social preferences - Springer
"Certain messages, even when not directly payoff relevant, can be a credible form of communication in light of natural social preferences. Social image concerns and other-regarding preferences interact to create incentives to communicate about how one feels about other people. Recognizing the prevalence of the incentive to communicate about one’s social preferences suggests that many social and economic phenomena—from norms of etiquette to cooperation to gift exchange—should be seen, in part, as forms of signaling. These behaviors may be surprisingly robust to material costs, yet sensitive to context."
to:NB  etiquette  game_theory 
5 hours ago
EconPapers: Is the market really a good teacher ?
"This paper proposes to model market mechanisms as a collective learning process for firms in a complex adaptive system, namely Jamel, an agent-based, stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model. Inspired by Alchian's (1950) " blanketing shotgun process " idea, our learning model is an ever-adapting process that puts a significant weight on exploration vis-à-vis exploitation. We show that decentralized market selection allows firms to collectively adapt their overall debt strategies to the changes in the macroeconomic environment so that the system sustains itself, but at the cost of recurrent deep downturns. We conclude that, in complex evolving economies, market processes do not lead to the selection of optimal behaviors, as the characterization of successful behaviors itself constantly evolves as a result of the market conditions that these behaviors contribute to shape. Heterogeneity in behavior remains essential to adaptation in such an ever-changing environment. We come to an evolutionary characterization of a crisis, as the point where the evolution of the macroeconomic system becomes faster than the adaptation capabilities of the agents that populate it, and the so far selected performing behaviors suddenly cease to be, and become instead undesirable."
to:NB  to_read  evolutionary_economics  economics  via:jbdelong 
2 days ago
On The So-Called “Huber Sandwich Estimator” and “Robust Standard Errors”
"The “Huber Sandwich Estimator” can be used to estimate the variance of the MLE when the underlying model is incorrect. If the model is nearly correct, so are the usual standard errors, and robustification is unlikely to help much. On the other hand, if the model is seriously in error, the sandwich may help on the variance side, but the parameters being estimated by the MLE are likely to be meaningless—except perhaps as descriptive statistics."
to:NB  have_read  statistics  estimation  misspecification  freedman.david  to_teach:linreg 
4 days ago
Could a neuroscientist understand a microprocessor? | bioRxiv
"There is a popular belief in neuroscience that we are primarily data limited, that producing large, multimodal, and complex datasets will, enabled by data analysis algorithms, lead to fundamental insights into the way the brain processes information. Microprocessors are among those artificial information processing systems that are both complex and that we understand at all levels, from the overall logical flow, via logical gates, to the dynamics of transistors. Here we take a simulated classical microprocessor as a model organism, and use our ability to perform arbitrary experiments on it to see if popular data analysis methods from neuroscience can elucidate the way it processes information. We show that the approaches reveal interesting structure in the data but do not meaningfully describe the hierarchy of information processing in the processor. This suggests that current approaches in neuroscience may fall short of producing meaningful models of the brain."
to:NB  neuroscience  have_read  neural_data_analysis  via:arthegall  satire 
4 days ago
PLOS ONE: Trickle-Down Preferences: Preferential Conformity to High Status Peers in Fashion Choices
On first skim, they don't really seem to consider that women who move from low to high status locations are probably _already different_ from those who don't...
I can't believe I'm writing this, but this might really be a job for propensity-score matching.
to:NB  to_be_shot_after_a_fair_trial  social_influence  economics  shoes  re:homophily_and_confounding  to_teach:undergrad-ADA 
5 days ago
KONECT - The Koblenz Network Collection
"KONECT contains over a hundred network datasets of various types, including directed, undirected, bipartite, weighted, unweighted, signed and rating networks. The networks of KONECT are collected from many diverse areas such as social networks, hyperlink networks, authorship networks, physical networks, interaction networks and communication networks. The KONECT project has developed network analysis tools which are used to compute network statistics, to draw plots and to implement various link prediction algorithms. The result of these analyses are presented on these pages. Whenever we are allowed to do so, we provide a download of the networks."
to:NB  to_teach:baby-nets  data_sets  networks  network_data_analysis  social_networks  via:BenjaminLind 
5 days ago
The Political Legacy of American Slavery: The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No 0
"We show that contemporary differences in political attitudes across counties in the American South in part trace their origins to slavery’s prevalence more than 150 years ago. Whites who currently live in Southern counties that had high shares of slaves in 1860 are more likely to identify as a Republican, oppose affirmative action, and express racial resentment and colder feelings toward blacks. We show that these results cannot be explained by existing theories, including the theory of contemporary racial threat. To explain the results, we offer evidence for a new theory involving the historical persistence of political attitudes. Following the Civil War, Southern whites faced political and economic incentives to reinforce existing racist norms and institutions to maintain control over the newly freed African American population. This amplified local differences in racially conservative political attitudes, which in turn have been passed down locally across generations."
to:NB  us_politics  american_history  american_south  racism  the_american_dilemma  slavery 
6 days ago
The Inner Workings of Life | Genomics Bioinformatics and Systems Biology | Cambridge University Press
"Living systems are dynamic and extremely complex and their behaviour is often hard to predict by studying their individual parts. Systems biology promises to reveal and analyse these highly connected, regulated and adaptable systems, using mathematical modelling and computational analysis. This new systems approach is already having a broad impact on biological research and has potentially far-reaching implications for our understanding of life. Written in an informal and non-technical style, this book provides an accessible introduction to systems biology. Self-contained vignettes each convey a key theme and are intended to enlighten, provoke and interest readers of different academic disciplines, but also to offer new insight to those working in the field. Using a minimum amount of jargon and no mathematics, Voit manages to convey complex ideas and give the reader a genuine sense of the excitement that systems biology brings with it, as well as the current challenges and opportunities."
to:NB  books:noted  biology  biochemical_networks 
6 days ago
[1412.1897] Deep Neural Networks are Easily Fooled: High Confidence Predictions for Unrecognizable Images
"Deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently been achieving state-of-the-art performance on a variety of pattern-recognition tasks, most notably visual classification problems. Given that DNNs are now able to classify objects in images with near-human-level performance, questions naturally arise as to what differences remain between computer and human vision. A recent study revealed that changing an image (e.g. of a lion) in a way imperceptible to humans can cause a DNN to label the image as something else entirely (e.g. mislabeling a lion a library). Here we show a related result: it is easy to produce images that are completely unrecognizable to humans, but that state-of-the-art DNNs believe to be recognizable objects with 99.99% confidence (e.g. labeling with certainty that white noise static is a lion). Specifically, we take convolutional neural networks trained to perform well on either the ImageNet or MNIST datasets and then find images with evolutionary algorithms or gradient ascent that DNNs label with high confidence as belonging to each dataset class. It is possible to produce images totally unrecognizable to human eyes that DNNs believe with near certainty are familiar objects, which we call "fooling images" (more generally, fooling examples). Our results shed light on interesting differences between human vision and current DNNs, and raise questions about the generality of DNN computer vision."
to:NB  have_read  neural_networks  classifiers  machine_learning  to:blog  via:gptp2016 
9 days ago
The Unequal Gains from Product Innovations by Xavier Jaravel :: SSRN
"Using detailed product-level data in the retail sector in the United States from 2004 to 2013, this paper shows that product innovations disproportionately benefited high-income households due to increasing inequality and the endogenous response of supply to market size. Annualized quality-adjusted inflation was 0.65 percentage points lower for high-income households, relative to low-income households. Using national and local changes in market size driven by demographic trends plausibly exogenous to supply factors, the paper provides causal evidence that a shock to the relative demand for goods (1) affects the direction of product innovations, and (2) leads to a decrease in the relative price of the good for which demand became relatively larger (i.e. the long-term supply curve is downward sloping). A calibration shows that this channel can explain most of the observed difference in quality-adjusted inflation rates across the income distribution."
to:NB  economics  economic_growth  inequality  via:jbdelong 
9 days ago
How the Chinese Government Fabricates Social Media Posts for Strategic Distraction, not Engaged Argument
"The Chinese government has long been suspected of hiring as many as 2,000,000 people to surreptitiously insert huge numbers of pseudonymous and other deceptive writings into the stream of real social media posts, as if they were the genuine opin- ions of ordinary people. Almost all scholars, activists, journalists, and participants in social media claim these so-called “Fifty Cent Party” posts argue vociferously for the government’s side in political and policy debates. Yet, almost no systematic em- pirical evidence exists for this claim, or, more importantly, for the Chinese regime’s strategic objective in pursuing this activity. In the first large scale empirical analy- sis of this operation, we show how to identify the secretive authors of these posts, the posts written by them, and their content. We estimate that the government fabri- cates and posts about 488 million social media comments a year. In contrast to prior claims, we show that the Chinese regime’s strategy is to avoid arguing with skeptics of the party and the government, and to not even discuss controversial issues. We infer that the goal of this massive secretive operation is instead to regularly distract the public and change the subject, as most of the these posts involve cheerleading for China, the revolutionary history of the Communist Party, or other symbols of the regime. We discuss how these results fit with what is known about the Chinese censorship program, and suggest how they may change our broader theoretical under- standing of “common knowledge” and information control in authoritarian regimes."
to:NB  to_read  social_media  networked_life  social_life_of_the_mind  changing_the_subject  re:democratic_cognition  via:henry_farrell  king.gary  china 
11 days ago
Defining the State from within
"A growing literature posits the importance of boundaries in structuring social systems. Yet sociologists have not adequately theorized one of the most fraught and consequential sites of boundary-making in contemporary life: the delineation of the official edges of the government—and, consequently, of state from society. This article addresses that gap by theorizing the mechanisms of state boundary formation. In so doing, we extend culturalist theories of the state by providing a more specific model of how the state-society boundary is produced. Further, we contribute to institutionalist accounts of politics by highlighting boundary-work during policy creation as a crucial site of political struggle, one with causal implications insofar as it illuminates a process that determines fine-grained distinctions in policy forms."
to:NB  public_policy  organizations  sociology  submerged_state  via:gabriel_rossman  re:democratic_cognition 
14 days ago
A dilemma for the imprecise bayesian - Springer
"Many philosophers regard the imprecise credence framework as a more realistic model of probabilistic inferences with imperfect empirical information than the traditional precise credence framework. Hence, it is surprising that the literature lacks any discussion on how to update one’s imprecise credences when the given evidence itself is imprecise. To fill this gap, I consider two updating principles. Unfortunately, each of them faces a serious problem. The first updating principle, which I call “generalized conditionalization,” sometimes forces an agent to change her imprecise degrees of belief even though she does not have new evidence. The second updating principle, which I call “the generalized dynamic Keynesian model,” may result in a very precise credal state although the agent does not have sufficiently strong evidence to justify such an informative doxastic state. This means that it is much more difficult to come up with an acceptable updating principle for the imprecise credence framework than one might have thought it would be."
to:NB  statistics  bayesianism  epistemology  probability  philosophy_of_science 
17 days ago
On the correct interpretation of p values and the importance of random variables - Springer
"The p value is the probability under the null hypothesis of obtaining an experimental result that is at least as extreme as the one that we have actually obtained. That probability plays a crucial role in frequentist statistical inferences. But if we take the word ‘extreme’ to mean ‘improbable’, then we can show that this type of inference can be very problematic. In this paper, I argue that it is a mistake to make such an interpretation. Under minimal assumptions about the alternative hypothesis, I explain why ‘extreme’ means ‘outside the most precise predicted range of experimental outcomes for a given upper bound probability of error’. Doing so, I rebut recent formulations of recurrent criticisms against the frequentist approach in statistics and underscore the importance of random variables."
to:NB  statistics  p-values  hypothesis_testing  foundations_of_statistics  philosophy_of_science 
17 days ago
[1604.00289] Building Machines That Learn and Think Like People
"Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) has renewed interest in building systems that learn and think like people. Many advances have come from using deep neural networks trained end-to-end in tasks such as object recognition, video games, and board games, achieving performance that equals or even beats humans in some respects. Despite their biological inspiration and performance achievements, these systems differ from human intelligence in crucial ways. We review progress in cognitive science suggesting that truly human-like learning and thinking machines will have to reach beyond current engineering trends in both what they learn, and how they learn it. Specifically, we argue that these machines should (a) build causal models of the world that support explanation and understanding, rather than merely solving pattern recognition problems; (b) ground learning in intuitive theories of physics and psychology, to support and enrich the knowledge that is learned; and (c) harness compositionality and learning-to-learn to rapidly acquire and generalize knowledge to new tasks and situations. We suggest concrete challenges and promising routes towards these goals that can combine the strengths of recent neural network advances with more structured cognitive models."
to:NB  cognitive_science  artificial_intelligence  neural_networks  machine_learning  via:arthegall 
17 days ago
Growth of income and welfare in the U.S, 1979-2011
"We estimate growth rates of real incomes in the U.S. by quintiles using the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) post-tax, post-transfer data as basis for the period 1979-2011. We improve upon them by including only the present value of earnings that will accrue in retirement and excluding items included in the CBO income estimates such as “corporate taxes borne by labor” that do not increase either current purchasing power or utility. We estimate a high and a low growth rate using two price indexes, the CPI and the Personal Consumption Expenditure index. The major consistent findings include what in the colloquial is referred to as the “hollowing out” of the middle class. According to these estimates, the income of the middle class 2nd and 3rd quintiles increased at a rate of between 0.1% and 0.7% per annum, i.e., barely distinguishable from zero. Even that meager rate was achieved only through substantial transfer payments. In contrast, the income of the top 1% grew at an astronomical rate of between 3.4% and 3.9% per annum during the 32-year period, reaching an average annual value of $918,000, up from $281,000 in 1979 (in 2011 dollars). Hence, the post-tax, post-transfer income of the 1% relative to the 1st quintile increased from a factor of 21 in 1979 to a factor of 51 in 2011. However, income of no other group increased substantially relative to that of the lowest quintile. Oddly, the income of even those in the 96-99 percentiles increased only from a multiple of 8.1 to a multiple of 11.3. We next estimate growth in welfare assuming diminishing marginal utility of income. A logarithmic utility function yields a growth in welfare for the middle class of roughly 0.01% to 0.07% per annum, which is indistinguishable from zero. With interdependent utility functions only the welfare of the 5th quintile experienced meaningful growth while those of the first four quintiles tend to be either negligible or even negative."
to:NB  to_read  inequality  economics  economic_growth  whats_gone_wrong_with_america  class_struggles_in_america 
17 days ago
Methods and Techniques of Complex Systems Science, Cosma Rohilla Shalizi, eBook - Amazon.com
I've been plagiarized before, but I've never had someone use my name to charge people $8.99 for something they could read, _with_ the figures, for free (https://arxiv.org/abs/nlin/0307015). We'll see if Amazon does anything.
self-centered  complexity  fraud 
18 days ago
The Impact of Computer Usage on Academic Performance: Evidence from a Randomized Trial at the United States Military Academy
"We present find­ings from a study that pro­hib­ited com­puter devices in ran­domly selected class­rooms of an intro­duc­tory eco­nom­ics course at the United States Military Academy. Average final exam scores among stu­dents assigned to class­rooms that allowed com­put­ers were 18 per­cent of a stan­dard devi­a­tion lower than exam scores of stu­dents in class­rooms that pro­hib­ited com­put­ers. Through the use of two sep­a­rate treat­ment arms, we uncover evi­dence that this neg­a­tive effect occurs in class­rooms where lap­tops and tablets are per­mit­ted with­out restric­tion and in class­rooms where stu­dents are only per­mit­ted to use tablets that must remain flat on the desk surface."
teaching  pedagogy  experimental_sociology  computers  to_read 
20 days ago
Modeling homophily and stochastic equivalence in symmetric relational data
"This article discusses a latent variable model for inference and prediction of symmetric relational data. The model, based on the idea of the eigenvalue decomposition, represents the relationship between two nodes as the weighted inner-product of node-specific vectors of latent characteristics. This eigenmodel'' generalizes other popular latent variable models, such as latent class and distance models: It is shown mathematically that any latent class or distance model has a representation as an eigenmodel, but not vice-versa. The practical implications of this are examined in the context of three real datasets, for which the eigenmodel has as good or better out-of-sample predictive performance than the other two models."

--- Why the EXPLETIVE hadn't I read this before?
in_NB  network_data_analysis  re:network_differences  statistics  hoff.peter  community_discovery  inference_to_latent_objects  cross-validation  re:XV_for_networks  have_read 
21 days ago
[1605.01624] Complete integrability of information processing by biochemical reactions
"Statistical mechanics provides an effective framework to investigate information processing in biochemical reactions. Within such framework far-reaching analogies are established among (anti-)cooperative collective behaviors} in chemical kinetics, (anti-)ferromagnetic spin models in statistical mechanics and operational amplifiers/flip-flops in cybernetics. The underlying modeling -- based on spin systems -- has been proved to be accurate for a wide class of systems matching classical (e.g. Michaelis--Menten, Hill, Adair) scenarios in the infinite-size approximation. However, the current research in biochemical information processing has been focusing on systems involving a relatively small number of units, where this approximation is no longer valid. Here we show that the whole statistical mechanical description of reaction kinetics can be re-formulated via a mechanical analogy -- based on completely integrable hydrodynamic-type systems of PDEs -- which provides explicit finite-size solutions, matching recently investigated phenomena (e.g. noise-induced cooperativity, stochastic bi-stability, quorum sensing). The resulting picture, successfully tested against a broad spectrum of data, constitutes a neat rationale for a numerically effective and theoretically consistent description of collective behaviors in biochemical reactions."
to:NB  biochemical_networks  biology  signal_transduction  statistics  via:vaguery 
21 days ago
Mokyr, J.: A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy. (eBook and Hardcover)
"During the late eighteenth century, innovations in Europe triggered the Industrial Revolution and the sustained economic progress that spread across the globe. While much has been made of the details of the Industrial Revolution, what remains a mystery is why it took place at all. Why did this revolution begin in the West and not elsewhere, and why did it continue, leading to today’s unprecedented prosperity? In this groundbreaking book, celebrated economic historian Joel Mokyr argues that a culture of growth specific to early modern Europe and the European Enlightenment laid the foundations for the scientific advances and pioneering inventions that would instigate explosive technological and economic development. Bringing together economics, the history of science and technology, and models of cultural evolution, Mokyr demonstrates that culture—the beliefs, values, and preferences in society that are capable of changing behavior—was a deciding factor in societal transformations.
"Mokyr looks at the period 1500–1700 to show that a politically fragmented Europe fostered a competitive “market for ideas” and a willingness to investigate the secrets of nature. At the same time, a transnational community of brilliant thinkers known as the “Republic of Letters” freely circulated and distributed ideas and writings. This political fragmentation and the supportive intellectual environment explain how the Industrial Revolution happened in Europe but not China, despite similar levels of technology and intellectual activity. In Europe, heterodox and creative thinkers could find sanctuary in other countries and spread their thinking across borders. In contrast, China’s version of the Enlightenment remained controlled by the ruling elite."
to:NB  books:noted  great_transformation  enlightenment  europe  early_modern_european_history  early_modern_world_history  history_of_ideas  mokyr.joel  coveted  science_as_a_social_process  social_life_of_the_mind  re:democratic_cognition 
24 days ago
Force-Directed Drawing Algorithms (from _Handbook of Graph Drawing and Visualization_)
"ome of the most flexible algorithms for calculating layouts of simple undirected graphs belong to a class known as force-directed algorithms. Also known as spring embedders, such algorithms calculate the layout of a graph using only information contained within the structure of the graph itself, rather than relying on domain-specific knowledge. Graphs drawn with these algorithms tend to be aesthetically pleasing, exhibit symmetries, and tend to produce crossing-free layouts for planar graphs."
to:NB  network_visualization  to_read  to_teach:baby-nets 
24 days ago
Social Networks (from _Handbook of Graph Drawing and Visualization_)
"Social networks provide a rich source of graph drawing problems, because they appear in an incredibly wide variety of forms and contexts. After sketching the scope of social network analysis, we establish some general principles for social network visualization before finally reviewing applications of, and challenges for, graph drawing methods in this area."
in_NB  to_read  network_visualization  to_teach:baby-nets 
24 days ago
Grinberg, R.: The Real Analysis Lifesaver: All the Tools You Need to Understand Proofs. (eBook, Paperback and Hardcover)
"Real analysis is difficult. For most students, in addition to learning new material about real numbers, topology, and sequences, they are also learning to read and write rigorous proofs for the first time. The Real Analysis Lifesaver is an innovate guide that helps students through their first real analysis course while giving them the solid foundation they need for further study in proof-based math.
"Rather than presenting polished proofs with no explanation of how they were devised, The Real Analysis Lifesaver takes a two-step approach, first showing students how to work backwards to solve the crux of the problem, then showing them how to write it up formally. It takes the time to provide plenty of examples as well as guided “fill in the blanks” exercises to solidify understanding.
"Newcomers to real analysis can feel like they are drowning in new symbols, concepts, and an entirely new way of thinking about math. Inspired by the popular Calculus Lifesaver, this book is refreshingly straightforward and full of clear explanations, pictures, and humor. It is the lifesaver that every drowning student needs."
to:NB  books:noted  mathematics  analysis 
24 days ago
Koerner, J.: Bosch and Bruegel: From Enemy Painting to Everyday Life. (Bollingen Series XXXV: 57) (Hardcover)
"In this visually stunning and much anticipated book, acclaimed art historian Joseph Koerner casts the paintings of Hieronymus Bosch and Pieter Bruegel in a completely new light, revealing how the painting of everyday life was born from what seems its polar opposite: the depiction of an enemy hell-bent on destroying us.
"Supreme virtuoso of the bizarre, diabolic, and outlandish, Bosch embodies the phantasmagorical force of painting, while Bruegel, through his true-to-life landscapes and frank depictions of peasants, is the artistic avatar of the familiar and ordinary. But despite their differences, the works of these two artists are closely intertwined. Bruegel began his career imitating Bosch’s fantasies, and it was Bosch who launched almost the whole repertoire of later genre painting. But Bosch depicts everyday life in order to reveal it as an alluring trap set by a metaphysical enemy at war with God, whereas Bruegel shows this enemy to be nothing but a humanly fabricated mask. Attending closely to the visual cunning of these two towering masters, Koerner uncovers art history’s unexplored underside: the image itself as an enemy."

--- This sounds like an extended exercise in making stuff up, but perhaps a glorious one.
to:NB  books:noted  art  art_history  bosch.hieronymous  early_modern_european_history 
24 days ago
Marra, P. and Santella, C.: Cat Wars: The Devastating Consequences of a Cuddly Killer. (eBook and Hardcover)
"In 1894, a lighthouse keeper named David Lyall arrived on Stephens Island off New Zealand with a cat named Tibbles. In just over a year, the Stephens Island Wren, a rare bird endemic to the island, was rendered extinct. Mounting scientific evidence confirms what many conservationists have suspected for some time—that in the United States alone, free-ranging cats are killing birds and other animals by the billions. Equally alarming are the little-known but potentially devastating public health consequences of rabies and parasitic Toxoplasma passing from cats to humans at rising rates. Cat Wars tells the story of the threats free-ranging cats pose to biodiversity and public health throughout the world, and sheds new light on the controversies surrounding the management of the explosion of these cat populations.
"This compelling book traces the historical and cultural ties between humans and cats from early domestication to the current boom in pet ownership, along the way accessibly explaining the science of extinction, population modeling, and feline diseases. It charts the developments that have led to our present impasse—from Stan Temple’s breakthrough studies on cat predation in Wisconsin to cat-eradication programs underway in Australia today. It describes how a small but vocal minority of cat advocates has campaigned successfully for no action in much the same way that special interest groups have stymied attempts to curtail smoking and climate change."
to:NB  books:noted  ecology  popular_science  invasive_species  environmental_management  cats 
24 days ago
Gintis, H.: Individuality and Entanglement: The Moral and Material Bases of Social Life. (eBook and Hardcover)
In this book, acclaimed economist Herbert Gintis ranges widely across many fields—including economics, psychology, anthropology, sociology, moral philosophy, and biology—to provide a rigorous transdisciplinary explanation of some fundamental characteristics of human societies and social behavior. Because such behavior can be understood only through transdisciplinary research, Gintis argues, Individuality and Entanglement advances the effort to unify the behavioral sciences by developing a shared analytical framework—one that bridges research on gene-culture coevolution, the rational-actor model, game theory, and complexity theory. At the same time, the book persuasively demonstrates the rich possibilities of such transdisciplinary work.

Everything distinctive about human social life, Gintis argues, flows from the fact that we construct and then play social games. Indeed, society itself is a game with rules and politics is the arena in which we affirm and change these rules. Individuality is central to our species because the rules do not change through inexorable macrosocial forces. Rather, individuals band together to change the rules. Our minds are also socially entangled, producing behavior that is socially rational, although it violates the standard rules of individually rational choice. Finally, a moral sense is essential for playing games with socially constructed rules. People generally play by the rules, are ashamed when they break the rules, and are offended when others break the rules, even in societies that lack laws, government, and jails.
to:NB  books:noted  gintis.herbert  kith_and_kin  evolution_of_cooperation  moral_psychology  moral_philosophy  economics  sociology 
24 days ago
Achen, C. and Bartels, L.M.: Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government. (eBook and Hardcover)
"Democracy for Realists assails the romantic folk-theory at the heart of contemporary thinking about democratic politics and government, and offers a provocative alternative view grounded in the actual human nature of democratic citizens.
"Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels deploy a wealth of social-scientific evidence, including ingenious original analyses of topics ranging from abortion politics and budget deficits to the Great Depression and shark attacks, to show that the familiar ideal of thoughtful citizens steering the ship of state from the voting booth is fundamentally misguided. They demonstrate that voters—even those who are well informed and politically engaged—mostly choose parties and candidates on the basis of social identities and partisan loyalties, not political issues. They also show that voters adjust their policy views and even their perceptions of basic matters of fact to match those loyalties. When parties are roughly evenly matched, elections often turn on irrelevant or misleading considerations such as economic spurts or downturns beyond the incumbents' control; the outcomes are essentially random. Thus, voters do not control the course of public policy, even indirectly.
"Achen and Bartels argue that democratic theory needs to be founded on identity groups and political parties, not on the preferences of individual voters. Democracy for Realists provides a powerful challenge to conventional thinking, pointing the way toward a fundamentally different understanding of the realities and potential of democratic government."
to:NB  books:noted  democracy  political_science  political_philosophy  re:democratic_cognition 
24 days ago
[Aristotle], <i>On Trolling</i> - Cambridge Journals Online
"That trolling is a shameful thing, and that no one of sense would accept to be called ‘troll’, all are agreed; but what trolling is, and how many its species are, and whether there is an excellence of the troll, is unclear. And indeed trolling is said in many ways; for some call ‘troll’ anyone who is abusive on the internet, but this is only the disagreeable person, or in newspaper comments the angry old man. And the one who disagrees loudly on the blog on each occasion is a lover of controversy, or an attention-seeker. And none of these is the troll, or perhaps some are of a mixed type; for there is no art in what they do. (Whether it is possible to troll one’s own blog is unclear; for the one who poses divisive questions seems only to seek controversy, and to do so openly; and this is not trolling but rather a kind of clickbait.)
"Well then, the troll in the proper sense is one who speaks to a community and as being part of the community; only he is not part of it, but opposed. And the community has some good in common, and this the troll must know, and what things promote and destroy it: for he seeks to destroy. Hence no one would troll the remotest Mysian, or even know how, but rather a Republican trolls a Democratic blog and a Democrat Republicans. And he destroys the thread by disputing what is known to be true, or abusing what is recognised as admirable; or he creates fear about a small problem, as if it were large, or treats a necessary matter as small; or he speaks abuse while claiming to be a friend. And in general the troll says what is false but sounds like the truth—or rather he does not quite say it, but rather something very close to it which is true, or partly true, or best of all merely asks a simple question about the evidence for climate change. Hence the modes of trolling are many: the concern-troll, the one who ‘sees the other side’, the polite inquirer into the obvious. For the perfected troll has no need of rudeness or abuse, or even of fallacy (this belongs rather to sophistic or eristic, and requires making an argument): he only makes a suggestion or indication [seˆmainein].
"And this is how the troll generates strife. For what he indicates is known to be false or harmful or ignorant; but he does not say that thing, but rather something close. In this way he retains the possibility of denial, and the skilled troll is always surprised and hurt, or seems to be, when the others take his comments up. And so he sets the community apart from each other, and introduces strife where before there was scarcely disagreement. For each person who takes up what was said grasps only a part of it, and insists on that, and is annoyed when others affirm something different...."

--- The whole thing is absolutely pitch-perfect.
trolling  networked_life  rhetoric  aristotle  affectionate_parody  barney.rachel  moral_psychology  philosophy 
24 days ago
That time a bot invaded Thingiverse and created weird new 3D objects | Ars Technica UK
There is something positively eerie about this, precisely because the creations manage to look like they ought to make sense while being senseless, and because it's autonomous while mindless. It is a glimpse of a genuinely post-human future in which the wheels of spam and combinatorial re-mixing continue to spin endlessly for no one.
the wheels of spam combinatorial re-mixing will continue to turn, forever, before no audience.
art  probably_not_really_that_creepy  to:blog  via:yorksranter 
27 days ago
Lewis, S.: Silent Sparks: The Wondrous World of Fireflies. (eBook and Hardcover)
"For centuries, the beauty of fireflies has evoked wonder and delight. Yet for most of us, fireflies remain shrouded in mystery: How do fireflies make their light? What are they saying with their flashing? And what do fireflies look for in a mate? In Silent Sparks, noted biologist and firefly expert Sara Lewis dives into the fascinating world of fireflies and reveals the most up-to-date discoveries about these beloved insects. From the meadows of New England and the hills of the Great Smoky Mountains, to the rivers of Japan and mangrove forests of Malaysia, this beautifully illustrated and accessible book uncovers the remarkable, dramatic stories of birth, courtship, romance, sex, deceit, poison, and death among fireflies.
"The nearly two thousand species of fireflies worldwide have evolved in different ways—and while most mate through the aerial language of blinking lights, not all do. Lewis introduces us to fireflies that don't light up at all, relying on wind-borne perfumes to find mates, and we encounter glow-worm fireflies, whose plump, wingless females never fly. We go behind the scenes to meet inquisitive scientists who have dedicated their lives to understanding fireflies, and we learn about various modern threats including light pollution and habitat destruction. In the last section of the book, Lewis provides a field guide for North American fireflies, enabling us to identify them in our own backyards and neighborhoods. This concise, handy guide includes distinguishing features, habits, and range maps for the most commonly encountered fireflies, as well as a gear list."
to:NB  books:noted  insects 
27 days ago
Schickler, E.: Racial Realignment: The Transformation of American Liberalism, 1932–1965
"Few transformations in American politics have been as important as the integration of African Americans into the Democratic Party and the Republican embrace of racial policy conservatism. The story of this partisan realignment on race is often told as one in which political elites—such as Lyndon Johnson and Barry Goldwater—set in motion a dramatic and sudden reshuffling of party positioning on racial issues during the 1960s. Racial Realignment instead argues that top party leaders were actually among the last to move, and that their choices were dictated by changes that had already occurred beneath them. Drawing upon rich data sources and original historical research, Eric Schickler shows that the two parties' transformation on civil rights took place gradually over decades.
"Schickler reveals that Democratic partisanship, economic liberalism, and support for civil rights had crystallized in public opinion, state parties, and Congress by the mid-1940s. This trend was propelled forward by the incorporation of African Americans and the pro-civil-rights Congress of Industrial Organizations into the Democratic coalition. Meanwhile, Republican partisanship became aligned with economic and racial conservatism. Scrambling to maintain existing power bases, national party elites refused to acknowledge these changes for as long as they could, but the civil rights movement finally forced them to choose where their respective parties would stand."
to:NB  books:noted  us_politics  american_history  20th_century_history  the_american_dilemma 
27 days ago
The Glory of the Empire – New York Review Books
"The Glory of the Empire is the rich and absorbing history of an extraordinary empire, at one point a rival to Rome. Rulers such as Basil the Great of Onessa, who founded the Empire but whose treacherous ways made him a byword for infamy, and the romantic Alexis the bastard, who dallied in the fleshpots of Egypt, studied Taoism and Buddhism, returned to save the Empire from civil war, and then retired “to learn to die,” come alive in The Glory of the Empire, along with generals, politicians, prophets, scoundrels, and others. Jean d’Ormesson also goes into the daily life of the Empire, its popular customs, and its contribution to the arts and the sciences, which, as he demonstrates, exercised an influence on the world as a whole, from the East to the West, and whose repercussions are still felt today. But it is all fiction, a thought experiment worthy of Jorge Luis Borges, and in the end The Glory of the Empire emerges as a great shimmering mirage, filling us with wonder even as it makes us wonder at the fugitive nature of power and the meaning of history itself."
books:noted  coveted  alternate_history  parody  how_had_I_not_heard_of_this? 
27 days ago
Alexandra Lange on 3D printers versus the sewing machine
I am glad that before writing a blog post based on a Clever Idea, I thought to check if anyone else had done it...
sewing_machines  3d_printers  craft  to:blog 
28 days ago
How to Think About (And Win) Socialism | Jacobin
In which In which EOW is much more patient than I would be with a comrade who has evidently learned all the wrong lessons from Leninist adventurism.
(However, I am a bit boggled by the idea that machines for extruding plastic according to a program do more to destroy economies of scale than did sewing machines. In fact, now that I think about it, where is the essay on "fabricators" as sewing machines for geekboys? In both cases, there's a certain scope for individual creativity and home production, but the hardware and the raw materials are equal the outputs of mass production. [I say this as one very secure in his geekboyness.])
--- ETA: the canonical version of the 3d-printer-vs-sewing-machine comparison seems to be http://www.dezeen.com/2014/05/08/3d-printers-have-a-lot-to-learn-from-the-sewing-machine/
socialism  wright.erik_olin 
28 days ago
Project MUSE - Darwin and Nietzsche: Selection, Evolution, and Morality
"This article discusses Nietzsche’s interpretation of Darwin’s theory of evolution by natural selection and the basis for his rejection of the major elements of Darwin’s overall scheme on observational grounds. Nietzsche’s further opposition to the attempt of Darwin and many of his followers to reconcile the “struggle for existence” with Christian ethics is the subject of the second half of the essay."
to:NB  history_of_ideas  nietzsche  darwin 
28 days ago
Show Me the Bone: Reconstructing Prehistoric Monsters in Nineteenth-Century Britain and America, Dawson
"Nineteenth-century paleontologists boasted that, shown a single bone, they could identify or even reconstruct the extinct creature it came from with infallible certainty—“Show me the bone, and I will describe the animal!” Paleontologists such as Georges Cuvier and Richard Owen were heralded as scientific virtuosos, sometimes even veritable wizards, capable of resurrecting the denizens of an ancient past from a mere glance at a fragmentary bone. Such extraordinary feats of predictive reasoning relied on the law of correlation, which proposed that each element of an animal corresponds mutually with each of the others, so that a carnivorous tooth must be accompanied by a certain kind of jawbone, neck, stomach, limbs, and feet.
"Show Me the Bone tells the story of the rise and fall of this famous claim, tracing its fortunes from Europe to America and showing how it persisted in popular science and literature and shaped the practices of paleontologists long after the method on which it was based had been refuted. In so doing, Gowan Dawson reveals how decisively the practices of the scientific elite were—and still are—shaped by their interactions with the general public."
to:NB  books:noted  history_of_science  biology  paleontology 
28 days ago
The Suit: Form, Function and Style, Breward
"Be as in love with your jeans, sweatpants, or flannels as you want, it’s hard to refute the sumptuous feel of a finely tailored suit—as well as the statement of power that comes with it. For over a century the suit has dominated wardrobes, its simple form making it the go-to attire for boardrooms, churches, or cocktail bars—anywhere one wants to make an impression. But this ubiquity has allowed us to take the suit’s history for granted, and its complex construction, symbolic power, and many shifting meanings have been lost to all but the most devout sartorialists.
"In The Suit, Christopher Breward unstitches the story of our most familiar garment. He shows how its emergence at the end of the seventeenth century reflects important political rivalries and the rise of modern democratic society. He follows the development of technologies in the textile industry and shows how they converge on the suit as an ideal template of modern fashion, which he follows across the globe—to South and East Asia especially—where the suit became an icon of Western civilization. The quintessential emblem of conformity and the status quo, the suit ironically became, as Breward unveils, the perfect vehicle for artists, musicians, and social revolutionaries to symbolically undermine hegemonic culture, twisting and tearing the suit into political statements. Looking at the suit’s adoption by women, Breward goes on to discuss the ways it signals and engages gender. He closes by looking at the suit’s apparent decline—woe the tyranny of business casual!—and questioning its survival in the twenty-first century.
"Beautifully illustrated and written with the authority a Zegna or Armani itself commands, The Suit offers new perspectives on this familiar—yet special—garment."
books:noted  clothing  history 
28 days ago
Prince, Tom Petty, Steve Winwood, Jeff Lynne and others -- "While My Guitar Gently Weeps" - YouTube
I think the other performers deserve _some_ credit for seeming to be good-humored about being totally upstaged.
28 days ago
New Left Project | Alternatives to Capitalism: Proposals for a Democratic Economy
I don't have much time for "participatory economics" --- I've said why at some length in my _Red Plenty_ piece --- but their hearts are in the right place, and Wright is good.
socialism  books:noted  to:NB  wright.erik_olin 
28 days ago
Principles underlying sensory map topography in primary visual cortex : Nature : Nature Publishing Group
"The primary visual cortex contains a detailed map of the visual scene, which is represented according to multiple stimulus dimensions including spatial location, ocular dominance and stimulus orientation. The maps for spatial location and ocular dominance arise from the spatial arrangement of thalamic afferent axons in the cortex. However, the origins of the other maps remain unclear. Here we show that the cortical maps for orientation, direction and retinal disparity in the cat (Felis catus) are all strongly related to the organization of the map for spatial location of light (ON) and dark (OFF) stimuli, an organization that we show is OFF-dominated, OFF-centric and runs orthogonal to ocular dominance columns. Because this ON–OFF organization originates from the clustering of ON and OFF thalamic afferents in the visual cortex, we conclude that all main features of visual cortical topography, including orientation, direction and retinal disparity, follow a common organizing principle that arranges thalamic axons with similar retinotopy and ON–OFF polarity in neighbouring cortical regions."
to:NB  neuroscience  neural_coding_and_decoding  cats  science_cat_blogging 
4 weeks ago
Natural speech reveals the semantic maps that tile human cerebral cortex : Nature : Nature Publishing Group
"The meaning of language is represented in regions of the cerebral cortex collectively known as the ‘semantic system’. However, little of the semantic system has been mapped comprehensively, and the semantic selectivity of most regions is unknown. Here we systematically map semantic selectivity across the cortex using voxel-wise modelling of functional MRI (fMRI) data collected while subjects listened to hours of narrative stories. We show that the semantic system is organized into intricate patterns that seem to be consistent across individuals. We then use a novel generative model to create a detailed semantic atlas. Our results suggest that most areas within the semantic system represent information about specific semantic domains, or groups of related concepts, and our atlas shows which domains are represented in each area. This study demonstrates that data-driven methods—commonplace in studies of human neuroanatomy and functional connectivity—provide a powerful and efficient means for mapping functional representations in the brain."
to:NB  to_read  fmri  cognitive_science  narrative 
4 weeks ago
Phase transitions in semidefinite relaxations
"Statistical inference problems arising within signal processing, data mining, and machine learning naturally give rise to hard combinatorial optimization problems. These problems become intractable when the dimensionality of the data is large, as is often the case for modern datasets. A popular idea is to construct convex relaxations of these combinatorial problems, which can be solved efficiently for large-scale datasets. Semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxations are among the most powerful methods in this family and are surprisingly well suited for a broad range of problems where data take the form of matrices or graphs. It has been observed several times that when the statistical noise is small enough, SDP relaxations correctly detect the underlying combinatorial structures. In this paper we develop asymptotic predictions for several detection thresholds, as well as for the estimation error above these thresholds. We study some classical SDP relaxations for statistical problems motivated by graph synchronization and community detection in networks. We map these optimization problems to statistical mechanics models with vector spins and use nonrigorous techniques from statistical mechanics to characterize the corresponding phase transitions. Our results clarify the effectiveness of SDP relaxations in solving high-dimensional statistical problems."
to:NB  optimization  statistics  phase_transitions  statistical_mechanics  community_discovery  network_data_analysis 
4 weeks ago
Population size does not explain past changes in cultural complexity
"Demography is increasingly being invoked to account for features of the archaeological record, such as the technological conservatism of the Lower and Middle Pleistocene, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition, and cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania. Such explanations are commonly justified in relation to population dynamic models developed by Henrich [Henrich J (2004) Am Antiq 69:197–214] and Powell et al. [Powell A, et al. (2009) Science 324(5932):1298–1301], which appear to demonstrate that population size is the crucial determinant of cultural complexity. Here, we show that these models fail in two important respects. First, they only support a relationship between demography and culture in implausible conditions. Second, their predictions conflict with the available archaeological and ethnographic evidence. We conclude that new theoretical and empirical research is required to identify the factors that drove the changes in cultural complexity that are documented by the archaeological record."
to:NB  cultural_evolution  archaeology  re:do-institutions-evolve 
4 weeks ago
Culture shapes the evolution of cognition
"A central debate in cognitive science concerns the nativist hypothesis, the proposal that universal features of behavior reflect a biologically determined cognitive substrate: For example, linguistic nativism proposes a domain-specific faculty of language that strongly constrains which languages can be learned. An evolutionary stance appears to provide support for linguistic nativism, because coordinated constraints on variation may facilitate communication and therefore be adaptive. However, language, like many other human behaviors, is underpinned by social learning and cultural transmission alongside biological evolution. We set out two models of these interactions, which show how culture can facilitate rapid biological adaptation yet rule out strong nativization. The amplifying effects of culture can allow weak cognitive biases to have significant population-level consequences, radically increasing the evolvability of weak, defeasible inductive biases; however, the emergence of a strong cultural universal does not imply, nor lead to, nor require, strong innate constraints. From this we must conclude, on evolutionary grounds, that the strong nativist hypothesis for language is false. More generally, because such reciprocal interactions between cultural and biological evolution are not limited to language, nativist explanations for many behaviors should be reconsidered: Evolutionary reasoning shows how we can have cognitively driven behavioral universals and yet extreme plasticity at the level of the individual—if, and only if, we account for the human capacity to transmit knowledge culturally. Wherever culture is involved, weak cognitive biases rather than strong innate constraints should be the default assumption."

--- "must conclude ... is false" is too strong, surely?
to:NB  to_read  cultural_evolution  cultural_transmission  cultural_transmission_of_cognitive_tools  cultural_universals  evolutionary_psychology  evolution_of_cognition 
4 weeks ago
[1412.6604] Video (language) modeling: a baseline for generative models of natural videos
"We propose a strong baseline model for unsupervised feature learning using video data. By learning to predict missing frames or extrapolate future frames from an input video sequence, the model discovers both spatial and temporal correlations which are useful to represent complex deformations and motion patterns. The models we propose are largely borrowed from the language modeling literature, and adapted to the vision domain by quantizing the space of image patches into a large dictionary. We demonstrate the approach on both a filling and a generation task. For the first time, we show that, after training on natural videos, such a model can predict non-trivial motions over short video sequences."
to:NB  prediction  spatio-temporal_statistics  statistics 
4 weeks ago
[1502.04681] Unsupervised Learning of Video Representations using LSTMs
"We use multilayer Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks to learn representations of video sequences. Our model uses an encoder LSTM to map an input sequence into a fixed length representation. This representation is decoded using single or multiple decoder LSTMs to perform different tasks, such as reconstructing the input sequence, or predicting the future sequence. We experiment with two kinds of input sequences - patches of image pixels and high-level representations ("percepts") of video frames extracted using a pretrained convolutional net. We explore different design choices such as whether the decoder LSTMs should condition on the generated output. We analyze the outputs of the model qualitatively to see how well the model can extrapolate the learned video representation into the future and into the past. We try to visualize and interpret the learned features. We stress test the model by running it on longer time scales and on out-of-domain data. We further evaluate the representations by finetuning them for a supervised learning problem - human action recognition on the UCF-101 and HMDB-51 datasets. We show that the representations help improve classification accuracy, especially when there are only a few training examples. Even models pretrained on unrelated datasets (300 hours of YouTube videos) can help action recognition performance."
to:NB  prediction  spatio-temporal_statistics  statistics  neural_networks  salakhutdinov.ruslan 
4 weeks ago
[1511.05440] Deep multi-scale video prediction beyond mean square error
"Learning to predict future images from a video sequence involves the construction of an internal representation that models the image evolution accurately, and therefore, to some degree, its content and dynamics. This is why pixel-space video prediction may be viewed as a promising avenue for unsupervised feature learning. In addition, while optical flow has been a very studied problem in computer vision for a long time, future frame prediction is rarely approached. Still, many vision applications could benefit from the knowledge of the next frames of videos, that does not require the complexity of tracking every pixel trajectories. In this work, we train a convolutional network to generate future frames given an input sequence. To deal with the inherently blurry predictions obtained from the standard Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss function, we propose three different and complementary feature learning strategies: a multi-scale architecture, an adversarial training method, and an image gradient difference loss function. We compare our predictions to different published results based on recurrent neural networks on the UCF101 dataset"

--- *grumble* Seriously, Dr. Third Referee? Their results have every single problem you complained about for us, and more. Seriously? *grumble*
to:NB  prediction  spatio-temporal_statistics  neural_networks  statistics 
4 weeks ago
[1502.04585] The Ladder: A Reliable Leaderboard for Machine Learning Competitions
"The organizer of a machine learning competition faces the problem of maintaining an accurate leaderboard that faithfully represents the quality of the best submission of each competing team. What makes this estimation problem particularly challenging is its sequential and adaptive nature. As participants are allowed to repeatedly evaluate their submissions on the leaderboard, they may begin to overfit to the holdout data that supports the leaderboard. Few theoretical results give actionable advice on how to design a reliable leaderboard. Existing approaches therefore often resort to poorly understood heuristics such as limiting the bit precision of answers and the rate of re-submission.
"In this work, we introduce a notion of "leaderboard accuracy" tailored to the format of a competition. We introduce a natural algorithm called "the Ladder" and demonstrate that it simultaneously supports strong theoretical guarantees in a fully adaptive model of estimation, withstands practical adversarial attacks, and achieves high utility on real submission files from an actual competition hosted by Kaggle.
"Notably, we are able to sidestep a powerful recent hardness result for adaptive risk estimation that rules out algorithms such as ours under a seemingly very similar notion of accuracy. On a practical note, we provide a completely parameter-free variant of our algorithm that can be deployed in a real competition with no tuning required whatsoever."

--- Basically, return the new score if, but only if, the new submission beats the previous best by some threshold. I think this blocks my "flood with models" attack...
learning_theory  cross-validation  have_read  via:arthegall 
5 weeks ago
Heard, S.: The Scientist’s Guide to Writing: How to Write More Easily and Effectively throughout Your Scientific Career. (eBook, Paperback and Hardcover)
"The ability to write clearly is critical to any scientific career. The Scientist's Guide to Writing provides practical advice to help scientists become more effective writers so that their ideas have the greatest possible impact.
"Drawing on his own experience as a scientist, graduate adviser, and editor, Stephen Heard emphasizes that the goal of all scientific writing should be absolute clarity; that good writing takes deliberate practice; and that what many scientists need are not long lists of prescriptive rules but rather direct engagement with their behaviors and attitudes when they write. He combines advice on such topics as how to generate and maintain writing momentum with practical tips on structuring a scientific paper, revising a first draft, handling citations, responding to peer reviews, managing coauthorships, and more."
to:NB  books:noted  writing_advice  science_as_a_social_process  to_teach:undergrad-research 
5 weeks ago
Shared Fantasy: Role Playing Games as Social Worlds, Fine
"This classic study still provides one of the most acute descriptions available of an often misunderstood subculture: that of fantasy role playing games like Dungeons & Dragons. Gary Alan Fine immerses himself in several different gaming systems, offering insightful details on the nature of the games and the patterns of interaction among players—as well as their reasons for playing."
to:NB  books:noted  books:coveted  role-playing_games  ethnography  social_life_of_the_mind  via:tsuomela  nerdworld  another_piece_of_my_childhood_becomes_a_part_of_the_historical_record 
5 weeks ago
Surfeit and surface | Big Data & Society
This is awesome. (But it's also completely compatible with causal inference!) Also, the cultural references will probably require footnotes in just 10 years.
social_science_methodology  sociology  data_mining  levi.john_martin  have_read  via:phnk  to_teach:undergrad-ADA  to_teach:data-mining  re:any_p-value_distinguishable_from_zero_is_insufficiently_informative  to:blog 
6 weeks ago
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