asterisk2a + unknowns   121

Martin Wolf on Brexit fears | FT Comment
significant reduction in output, and unknowns and unknown unknowns time after vote, delayed investment into UK. Businesses like certainty! [...] We will be small off-shore island [...] UK relationship w USA was important to EU. [...] Weaker Europe, weaker UK. [...] //&! UK Treasury's analysis of Brexit - youtu.be/iT7Z4Kzb53I - Econ risk and immigration huge pillar of voting-decision especially for swing voters. [...] £4300 over next 14 years, the assumption/basis of this is lower economic growth (6%) ... attack is that this is not a fact. [...] Leave campaign argues the world will queue up to do quickly trade deals with you, which is not fact. [...] Stay campaign says this is not the case, and USA has hinted at that that you can't fall back on us to arrage quick trade deal negotiations with other countries, just because of our past relations.
Brexit  underinvestment  FDI  foreign  direct  investment  uncertainty  output  gap  productivity  productivity  gap  TTIP  unknown  unknown  unknowns  foreign  relations  business  confidence 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Sustainability or Prosperity? Why Not Both? | PolicyCast
describes the rapidly growing field of sustainability science, which combines a variety of disciplines in both the hard and social sciences to find paths towards a sustainable future. //&! Book Pursuing Sustainability: A Guide to the Science and Practice – (2016) by Pamela Matson, William C. Clark, Krister Andersson. //&! http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/publications/insight/international/william-clark &! https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=LkLCmQwAAAAJ&hl=en &! http://earthsky.org/human-world/william-c-clark-defines-sustainable-development &! Jeffrey Sachs - Global Cooperation and Sustainable Development - youtu.be/cRWtRh3yLI0 &! "Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet." - youtu.be/n3kzzVP2c7w &! Jeffrey Sachs: "The Price of Civilization" - youtu.be/_G6SYmQ0swg - profoundly underestimated globalization's long-term effects: jobs, incomes, poverty, and the environment.
sustainability  sustainable  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  underinvestment  public  health  global  warming  economic  damage  GDP  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  extreme  weather  weather  extreme  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  crony  capitalism  shareholder  capitalism  Wall  Street  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  air  pollution  water  pollution  noise  pollution  pollution  mass  extinction  ecological  damage  environmental  damage  livestock  farming  industrial  agriculture  policy  folly  short-term  thinking  short-termism  short-term  view  social  value  policy  error  ecological  footprint  carbonfootprint  deforestation  soil  erosion  climate  change  climate  crisis  book  society  Wertegesellschaft  Wegwerfgesellschaft  Jeffrey  Sachs  Movement  environmental  disaster  environment  environmentalism  resource  depletion  finite  resources  Pesticides  fungicide  herbicide  colony  collapse  disorder  Great  Pacific  Garbage  Patch  Great  Barrier  Reef  drought  Ozone  politician  Fossil  fuel  industry  Food  Politics  carbon  tax  COP21  planning  law  building  code  renewable  energy  energy  policy 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Was treibt die Menschen zu Pegida? | rbb Rundfunk Berlin-Brandenburg
Protestforscher Prof. Dieter Rucht im Interview - Was treibt die Menschen zu Pegida? Prof. Dieter Rucht arbeitet im Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin und erforscht seit Jahren soziale Bewegungen und politische Protestformen. In den vergangenen Wochen hat er Pegida-Anhänger befragt und die Demonstrationen in Dresden beobachtet. Ressentiments gegenüber Fremden und den Schwierigkeiten demokratischer Willensbildung, die auch sozialisationsbedingt sind, sieht er als Ursachen des Zuspruchs für Pegida.
Politics  No  Representation  uncertainty  insecurity  social  cohesion  Protest  Party  Protest  Partei  NPD  AfD  hartz-iv  Agenda  2010  Niedriglohnsektor  Precariat  precarious  work  unintended  consequences  complexity  compromise  PEGIDA  austerity  Europe  Philosophy  political  science  political  folly  political  error  Career  Politicians  stereotype  Ausländerfeindlichkeit  feindbilder  erzkonservativ  Lügenpresse  integration  adoptarefugee.org  ISIS  Religion  Islam  Islamic  Law  radicalism  Islamic  State  Caliphate  social  science  social  status  social  security  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  Unbekanntes  Rassismus  racism  CSU  CDU  SPD  social  safety  net  workless  working  class  Zivilcourage  Zivilgesellschaft  hate  crime  hate  speech  European  History  Germany  Asylum  Asylbewerber  Middle  East  World  Police  USA  Iraq  Iraq  War  al-Qaida  foreign  affairs  domestic  affairs  ISIL  democracy  Democratic  Process  GFC  Bailout  Establishment  Privileged  Super  Rich  1%  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  fairness  social  discrimination  racial  discrimination  ethnic  discrimination  discrimination  social  study 
february 2015 by asterisk2a
Thomas Mayer und sein Buch "Die neue Ordnung des Geldes" - SPIEGEL ONLINE
"Je mehr ich mich damit beschäftigte", erzählt er, "desto klarer wurde mir, dass das ein Problem im System ist." [...] "Wir haben die erste Runde der Krise bekämpft, aber wir kommen nicht mehr raus aus der Politik des billigen Geldes." [...] Gold ist für ihn ein "barbarischer Rohstoff", der im Modell der Österreichischen Schule eigentlich nur als Ersatz für das nötige Vertrauen der Bürger in eine Währung fungiere. Dennoch müsse die Geldmenge natürlich begrenzt werden. Den Banken und Staaten will Mayer deshalb jeden Zugriff auf die Schöpfung neuen Geldes entziehen. Er spricht von einem "Aktivgeldsystem".
book  GFC  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  BIS  IMF  Fed  academia  economic  history  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  LTRO  TLTRO  Bailout  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  unknown  unknowns  unknown  unkown  Debt  Super  Cycle  monetary  transmission  mechanism  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  trust  trustagent  confidence  fiat  currency  economic  model  economics  macroeconomics 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Huawei boss says US ban 'not very important'
IBM was sort of forced to sell its remaining server business to Lenovo after China demand fell thorugh the floor because of revelations to bugging Cisco hardware by NSA officials (intercepting the package during delivery). Lenovo lost also business in America.
unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  surveillance  state  Orwellian  NSA  GCHQ  cyber  war  cyber  security  cyber  espionage  corporate  espionage  USA  G  Zero  China  protectionism  UK  diplomacy  presidency  barackobama  Lenovo  IBM  Cold  cyber  attack  Israel  Iran  Double  Agent  Germany  Europe 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Share prices across Europe continue to slide
'Monetary morphine' [...] one of the big concerns among investors was the ending of the Fed's monetary stimulus in the US. "As the monetary morphine has started to wear off the patient has come to realise that a lot of the old problems still remain, and yesterday's poor US data helped trigger a rather extreme reaction in not only the stock markets but bond markets too, as complacent investors rushed to hedge themselves. "In essence, investors are asking the question with respect to the recent recovery about whether this is as good as it gets, which rather explains the slump in the oil price, bond yields and stock markets,"
Taper  recovery  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  distortion  economic  history  liquidity  trap  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  PIGS  Europe  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  Pact  monetary  policy  productivity  output  gap  policy  folly  policy  error  uncertainty  business  confidence  business  investment  ZIRP  NIRP  deflation  deflationary  secular  stagnation  stagnation  stagflation  consumer  confidence  trust  trustagent  confidence  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed  Abenomics  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  unknown  unkown  hunt  for  yield 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Our cities' water systems are becoming obsolete. What will replace them? - Vox
But as David Sedlak explains in his fascinating book, Water 4.0: The Past, Present, and Future of the World's Most Vital Resource, nothing about water has ever been simple. The urban water systems we rely on so heavily were developed in response to three major crises stretching back centuries — from water shortages in the Roman Empire to cholera outbreaks in the Industrial Revolution to polluted lakes in the United States in the 1970s. And now, Sedlak writes, we're about to face a fourth major water crisis — "as continued population growth and climate change stretch the ability of urban water systems to meet our needs." [...] 1) Our water infrastructure needs costly upgrades [...] 2) Many sewer systems are becoming overloaded [...] 3) Water scarcity in drought-prone areas [...] Climate change will make this all harder. "The most recent global climate models suggest that the wet places will get wetter and the dry places will get drier.
infrastructure  investment  urbanisation  urban  planning  USA  water  security  water  scarcity  water  rights  drinking  water  water  supply  climate  change  global  warming  drought  weather  extreme  extreme  weather  population  desalination  California  resource  depletion  natural  resources  finite  resources  capitalism  Wall  Street  shareholder  shareholder  value  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  complexity 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Digital Dark Matter: The Unseen Forces That Influence Innovation | TechCrunch
Christian Cantrell wrote a piece about the unseen forces that influence innovation and how it is similar to dark matter. Despite all we think we know about the nature of the universe, the overwhelming majority of the cosmos lies outside our current powers of observation, yet it profoundly affects everything. The same goes with the forces that influence innovation. // [...] Despite all we think we know about the nature of the universe, the overwhelming majority of the cosmos lies outside our current powers of observation, yet it profoundly affects everything. So it goes with the forces that influence innovation. [...] But it might also be true that we are entering a time when the wisdom of surrounding ourselves with yet more computers, cameras, and sensors is legitimately called into question[.]
innovation  creative  destruction  unknown  unkown  artificial  intelligence  AI  Robotics  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  complexity  unknown  unknowns  blackswan  Black  Swan  disrupting  markets  disruption  autonomous  cars  self-driving  cars  Moore's  Law  IoT  Smarthome  technological  history  technological  progress  human  progress  Transhumanism  quantified  self  Philosophy  sociology 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Interview with Authors of "The New Puberty: How to Navigate Early Development in Today's Girls."
"The New Puberty: How to Navigate Early Development in Today's Girls." - unkown unkowns - increased cancer risk? / stolen childhood - consequences. / / / >> & https://www.facebook.com/drgarth/posts/851536004867309 << &! "What I find concerning is that puberty is a process that's very sensitive to the environment and we can move the timing of puberty, unintentionally, vis-a-vis environmental exposures." — Clinical psychologist Julianna Deardroff, co-author of "The New Puberty." https://www.facebook.com/NPR/posts/10153025845701756 - http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/12/02/367811777/how-girls-are-developing-earlier-in-an-age-of-new-puberty &! http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/nov/06/health-eu "Two-year-olds at risk from 'gender-bending' chemicals, report says" &! bit.ly/1B93zrQ &! http://www.kiwimagonline.com/toxins
book  medical  research  medical  profession  cancer  unknown  unknowns  unknown  unkown  Vegan  omnivore  estrogen  environment  pollution  childhood  childhood  development  parenthood  parenting  puberty  toxin  carcinogen  carcinogenic  endocrine  system  endocrinology  endocrine  disruptors 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Andreessen: High burn rates risk more than just running out of cash | PandoDaily
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable  a16z  Marc  Andreessen  Ben  Horowitz  SF  war  for  talent  labour  economics  labour  market 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Winter Is (Probably) Coming (Soon) | TechCrunch
"The more you boost your burn, the more risk you take on. [...] The underlying point of Gurley’s and Wilson’s respective riffs is that many companies will have to reduce their burn in the future. And it won’t be easy. And the pair likely won’t be willing to give larger sums to companies that just torched their prior round in ways that they didn’t precisely approve of. Cash is the oxygen of business. When it runs out, the company dies." ... being nimble, frugal, Lean, conservative ... via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8338411
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Burn Baby Burn – AVC
From one of the comments: "f you're backing companies that have bootstrapped their start, you get a different, focussed culture & attitude on burn rates and costs. It forces you to think twice about every cost item. You're running as fast as you can to get traction, customers, product, team, everything aligned within tight costs. It's not about frugality but more aligned to reality. " +++ via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8324047 +++ !!! Fancy Offices - bit.ly/1piSnxO +++ !!! +++ "Gurley and Wilson point to sky high burn rates, not valuations as the red flag in Silicon Valley [...] Gurley and Wilson are lamenting the exorbitant burn rates that have become the norm among venture-backed startups and the lack of fear and accountability signaled by this hyper-aggressive approach." - bit.ly/1m93G0M +++ !!! +++ bit.ly/YQY2WS +++ !!! +++ "Which VCs Have the Most Portfolio Companies with $100M+ of Funding?" - bit.ly/1wo7BHF
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Venture Capitalist Sounds Alarm on Silicon Valley Risk - WSJ
"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." And then you wrote: "Although we may have not reached the level of observing obvious greediness, there is most certainly an absence of fear. Those that managed companies in 2008, or 13 years ago in 2001, know exactly how fear feels. And this is not it." [...] Right now youve got private companies raising $200, $400, $500 million. If youre in a competitive ecosystem & you raise that amount of money, the only way you use it—because these companies are all human-based, theyre not like building stores—is to take your burn up. [2 things: exorbitant high burn rates like '99 & the allure of working for $ loosing companies. &the justification is 'it's Landgrab time,it's still day 1'] &living cost, employee cost &perk &rent cost in SV/SF &surroundings isnt helping either. rising cost is fuelling burn rates &valuations w/ big ABC-Rounds. Didnt we have the glorification of Lean ~3 years ago? A bubble is one WHEN IT POPS!
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Islamic State crisis: Obama threatens action in Syria
military offensive. +++ http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/is-in-syrien-und-irak-us-praesident-obama-will-luftangriffe-ausweiten-a-990962.html +++ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29166372 - Arab states back US push against Islamic state +++ http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/is-islamischer-staat-in-syrien-irak-obama-schmiedet-allianz-a-990963.html "Obama kündigte einen langen Kampf an; einen, der seine Präsidentschaft wohl überdauern werde: "Es braucht Zeit, um ein Krebsgeschwür wie den IS zu eliminieren."" +++ http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/obama-luecken-in-der-strategie-gegen-is-islamischer-staat-a-990988.html +++ Conversation: Containing vs. Destroying the Islamic State - http://youtu.be/h4T09XKbUcA "details unknown" + "Allies have self-serving interests" + "may turn into war of containment" !!!
USA  presidency  barackobama  ISIS  Islamic  State  ISIL  Iraq  Syria  War  on  Terror  radicalism  radicalism  extremism  Arab  World  Arab  League  Europe  Germany  UK  France  humanitarian  crisis  genocide  human  tragedy  Middle  East  Religion  military  intervention  jihadist  yazidi  yazidis  Sunni  Turkey  complexity  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Wirtschaftskrise: Deutsche Wirtschaft mit starkem Export ist anfällig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Typischerweise produzieren dominante ökonomische Narrative zuerst Illusionen und dann große Probleme. Wo eine Geschichte von Marktteilnehmern, Regulierern und Beobachtern vorbehaltlos akzeptiert wird, ist der Boden bereitet für Irrtümer, die uns am Ende Kopf und Kragen kosten können, wie ich meinem neuen Buch argumentiere. >> Die Politik des billigen Geldes verzerrt die Wirtschaftsstrukturen .... - die deutsche Wirtschaft unterfinanziert & Dass die Politik des ultrabilligen Geldes die Wirtschaftsstrukturen verzerrt, auch hierzulande. [CreditCrunch/transmission mechanism broken/hunt for yield/betongold/no-investments] +++ die Digitalisierung auch die produktionslastige deutsche Wirtschaft fundamental durcheinanderwirbeln wird. [Year of Code/Education Policy/Human Capital - high ed imigrants/Mobile Creatives/Share Economy] +++ Spiegel 37/2014 "Deutschland der Scheinriese" Cover Story
GFC  bubble  property  bubble  bubbles  economic  history  economics  society  storytelling  narrative  journalism  journalismus  PIGS  UK  USA  Germany  Exportweltmeister  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  exports  export  Europe  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  competitiveness  competitive  competitive  advantage  comparative  advantage  2014  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Policy  Makers  error  folly  trust  trustagent  confidence  accountability  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  monetary  fiscal  LTRO  OMT  ABS  unconventional  monetary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  distortion  Wall  Street  centralbanks  IMF  IBS  liquidity  trap  creditcrunch  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  blackswan  Black  Swan  Betongold  Beton  Gold  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  Year  of  Code  education  Public  Policy  hunt  for  yield  human  capital  immigration  demographics  demographic  bubble  demography 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
8 Reasons Why A New Global Financial Crisis Could Be On The Way - NASDAQ.com
Like any other bubble, it will only become one once it bursts. What is different in 2014 is that now central banks have a great tool to prevent real estate bubbles: Basel III and its countercyclical capital buffer. [...] Let us not forget the lessons of the Great War (we are now commemorating the 100-year anniversary): the butterfly effect can be deadly in politics. +++ http://ti.me/1r4NfEy "Raghuram Rajan, the governor of India's central bank, fears supereasy money from the world’s central banks is inflating assets and encouraging bad investments. [...] Long-term low interest rates and unorthodox programs to stimulate economies — like quantitative easing, or QE — could be laying the groundwork for more turmoil in financial markets, he argues. [...] With inflation not being strong, this can continue for some time until things are so stretched that any signs of inflation, and a rise in interest rates, could precipitate a fairly strong market reaction. Certainly [...] volatility hurts[.]
equity  bubble  asset  bubble  shadow  banking  China  Basel3  Basel  III  centralbanks  BIS  bubbles  bubble  butterfly  effect  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  QE  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  Raghuram  Rajan  zombie  banks  NPL  PIGS  geopolitics  Middle  East  ISIS  Islamic  State  Ukrain  Ukraine  radicalism  Putin  vladimirputin  Russia  Europe  USA  foreign  affairs  diplomacy  NATO  IMF  austerity  secular  stagnation  stagnation  deflation  deflationary  uncertainty  Wall  Street  volatility  Taper  distortion  trust  trustagent  confidence  BRIC  India  MINT  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  emerging  market  flat  globalisation  globalization 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Scientists sniffing out the Western allergy epidemic
[immune system over-reaction, immune system early on in baby years didn't learn that pollen in the air are nothing dangerous ... as baby early on wasn't that much outside during pollen season??? so future medical research may have to focus on how to retrain the immune system!? first with extremely low doses ... ??? same gos for a study that has show; babies that were delivered by c-section were at higher risk of allergies and skin problems than natural birth ... ] The bacteria that cover our skin, line our mouths and fill our guts not only outnumber our own cells by about 10 to one but may play a vital role in training our immune systems. Changes to our lifestyles are influencing these microorganisms, and allergies are the consequence. +++ https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8259817
immune  system  allergies  allergy  western  lifestyle  western  society  medical  research  medical  advances  medical  profession  complexity  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
A Look Back At Yahoo’s Flickr Acquisition For Lessons Today | TechCrunch
[The Future is uncertain & Vague"] .... Flickr decided in January 2005 to take the Yahoo offer — reportedly for $35 million. There were too many compelling reasons to take the offer during what was still an uncertain time. Because it was early in the growth of tech startups after the dot-com crash, Flickr missed some of the up-tick in the market, as others sold for more when the market took off: Myspace sold to News Corp. for $580 million in July 2005 and later YouTube, which Google acquired in October 2006 for $1.65 billion in stock. “We definitely made the wrong decision in retrospect. We would’ve made 10 times [what we did]. But it’s not like I regret it,” Butterfield says. How can something be a mistake and also be completely correct? The sale left potentially 10 times more on the table. But Butterfield doesn’t regret it because he believes they made the right decision knowing what they did at the time. And he and other team members have all gone on to do well at other ventures.
Flickr  Yahoo!  M&A  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  incomplete  information  complexity  unknown  unknowns  acquisitions  acquisition  Silicon  Valley 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Stephanie Hare on the UK economy - Newsnight - YouTube
>> how many jobs have been lost regarding to banking in london and adjoining businesses ... thousands. thousands of hours of productivity gone (high charges for the hours). forever. = productivity and output gap || and how many times had osborne now moved forward expected savings and targets in time ... every year. || it will not get better as they travel (still) on the same path that leads to nowhere safe. still heading to the cliff. same direction. same speed.
secular  stagnation  flat  world  UK  living  standard  cost  of  living  wage  stagnation  minimum  wage  living  wage  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  exploitation  wages  productivity  output  gap  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  service  economy  service  industry  Services  economics  economic  history  academia  academics  BOE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Public  knowledge  worker  workless  underemployed  employment  Politics  recovery  London  Structural  Impediments  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  Europe  GFC  greatrecession  2014  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  low-income  working  class  workforce  education  policy  White-collar  Future  of  Work  flexible  Zero  Hour  Contract  Blue-collar  behavioral  economics  corporatism  capitalism  globalisation  globalization  Debt  Super  Cycle  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  sovereign  crisis  austerity  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  consumer  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  hunt  for  yield  property  bubble  housing  market  bubble  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Toff  lost  decade  lost  generation  stagnation 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Ukraine Exposes Globalism's Flawed Premise | Curtis Ellis
It is a modern Western conceit to view human aspirations strictly through a materialistic lens. Alexander Solzhenitsyn decried Western society's tendency to focus on the accumulation of material goods to the exclusion of all other human characteristics. This stubborn insistence on seeing the world in purely economic terms blinded us to anticipating that Vladimir Putin could do exactly what he did. Putin wasn't supposed to risk upsetting "the market" - but he did. He was supposed to fear sanctions and economic backlash - but he didn't. the only possible explanation is that he is disconnected from reality, as Angela Merkel reportedly said. [...] the assumption that nationalism is a thing of the past, and that people around the world think, conduct business and share the same values as the Western elites.
globalisation  globalization  materialism  economic  history  economics  national  identity  identity  Europe  neoliberal  neoliberalism  neoconservatives  neoconservatism  Super  Rich  1%  flat  world  Nationalism  national  symbol  national  interest  personal  values  Religion  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  unintended  consequences  democracy  Middle  East  Africa  Caucasus  Russia  China  Asia  western  society  Ukrain  Ukraine  foreign  policy  foreign  affairs  diplomacy  compromise  War  on  Terror  War  on  Drugs  Makers  national  security  complexity  unknown  unknowns  capitalism  USA  UK 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Our Microbiome May Be Looking Out for Itself - NYTimes.com
Some experiments suggest that bacteria also can influence the way their hosts eat. Germ-free mice develop more receptors for sweet flavors in their intestines, for example. They also prefer to drink sweeter drinks than normal mice do.
microbiome  Gut  Flora  Leaky  Vegan  antibiotics  complexity  unknown  unknowns  medical  research 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
ISIS 'bigger threat than al-Qaeda', says Patrick Cockburn - Newsnight - YouTube
civil war in Syria gave ISIS movement the space (civil war as regional power vacuum) to fill in. Something that people can hang on to and be protected by - admits the carnage, the chaos, the uncertainty, the collateral damage, the deaths, the turmoil, .... something that is their sliver of hope. +++ The Islamic State is conquering cities in Syria and Iraq with disturbing frequency and tens of thousands of Christians and Yazidis are fleeing. The US has begun air strikes, but the Islamists are benefiting from instability in both countries. - http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-disturbing-advance-of-the-islamic-state-in-northern-iraq-a-985489.html
ISIS  Islamic  State  Syrien  Syria  Iraq  Irak  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unknowns  G  Zero  civil  war  al-Qaida  al-Qaeda  USA  NATO  UNO  Security  Council  Europe  Russia  extremism  radicalism  Islamic  Law  Religion  UNO  UN  unknown  unkown  Arab  World  Middle  East  propaganda  radicalism  history  World  Police  British  Empire 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Grillfleisch: Gefährliche Keime in Stichproben gefunden - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der agrarpolitische Sprecher der Grünen sieht in den Testergebnissen dennoch einen Hinweis auf eine wachsende Gefahr. "Die verschiedenen Keimresistenzen sind eine tickende Zeitbombe", sagt Friedrich Ostendorff. Er kritisiert, dass die Bundesregierung keine entscheidenden Maßnahmen ergreift, den Missbrauch von Antibiotika in der Massentierhaltung zu stoppen. Ende Mai hatten die Grünen bereits in mehreren Wurstprodukten problematische Keime gefunden. In zehn von 63 Wurstproben seien ESBL-Keime nachgewiesen worden, die ebenfalls gegen gängige Antibiotika resistent sein können.
MRSA  post-antibiotic  era  antibiotics  Industrial  Farming  agriculture  agriculture  industry  agriculture  policy  Meat  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Gefahr durch Niedrigzinsen - YouTube
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  Wall  Street  bond  bubble  PIGS  Fed  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  BOE  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  Europe  UK  USA  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  risk  taking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  creditrisk  hunt  for  yield  deflation  deflationary  secular  stagnation  2014  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  Betongold  Beton  Gold  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  property  bubble  Germany  monetization  monetisation  NPL  IBS  zombie  banks  recovery  greatrecession  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  faultlines  output  gap  productivity 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
If Schools Don't Change, Robots Will Bring On a 'Permanent Underclass': Report | Motherboard
via http://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/2ct2xs/if_schools_dont_change_robots_will_bring_on_a/ The respondents overwhelmingly agree that this lovely future where robots do the work and humans design the robots and everyone has leisure time and lots of money only exists in a fantasy future where the school systems pump out a shitload of Elon Musks and Sergey Brins—or, at the very least, people who can reliably work at the companies those guys own. [...] only the best-educated humans will compete with machines [...] and education systems [around the world] are still sitting students in rows & columns, teaching them to keep quiet and memorize what is told to them, preparing them for life in a 20th century factory.” // Rise of Service Jobs (dominance) in USA, even post-GFC. // ADD: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/on-leadership/wp/2014/08/07/are-robots-coming-for-your-job/
Robotics  AI  Future  of  Work  Start-up  of  You  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  Year  of  Code  skill-biased  technological  change  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  capital  skills  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  human  capital  creativity  destruction  value  creation  Problem  Solving  complexity  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  education  policy  Public  HR  human  resources  hiring  underemployed  structural  unemployment  employment  unemployment  leisure  time  disposable  income  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  competitive  advantage  comparative  advantage  competitiveness  Competition  competitive  Career  Politicians  Precariat  Proletariat  sociology  psychology  Universal  Basic  Grundeinkommen  precarious  precarious  employment  Services  Industry  service  income  mobility  social  mobility  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  living  wage  standard  of  living  minimum  wage  wage  stagnation  workforce  labour  economics  labour  market  middle  class  status  quo  sector  Europe  USA  disruption  knowledge  economy  domain  knowledge  domain  expertise  expertise 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
ISIS, the Yazidis, Kurdistan, and the Threat of Massacres in Iraq
http://www.reddit.com/r/TrueReddit/comments/2cse4r/as_the_world_focuses_on_gaza_a_genocide_may_take/ - "Prince Tahseen Said, “the world leader of the Yazidis,” has issued an appeal to Kurdish, Iraqi, Arab, and European leaders, as well as to Ban Ki-moon and Barack Obama. It reads: “I ask for aid and to lend a hand and help the people of Sinjar areas and its affiliates and villages and complexes which are home to the people of the Yazidi religion. I invite [you] to assume [your] humanitarian and nationalistic responsibilities towards them and help them in their plight and the difficult conditions in which they live today.” It’s hard to know what, if anything, is left of the humanitarian responsibilities of the international community. The age of intervention is over, killed in large part by the Iraq war. But justifiable skepticism about the use of military force seems also to have killed off the impulse to show solidarity with the helpless victims of atrocities in faraway places.
ISIS  Iraq  Irak  Middle  East  Islamic  State  radicalism  extremism  Arab  World  history  Religion  western  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  Syria  Iran  Iraq  War  USA  G  Zero  Europe  humanity  human  tragedy  refugee  refugee  western  society  NATO  United  Nations  Security  Council  Russia  United  Nations  UNO  Security  Council  UNO  UN 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Dürre: Kalifornien spart Wasser und bestraft Verschwender - SPIEGEL ONLINE
_ http://www.spiegel.de/einestages/wasserbauingenieur-william-mulholland-der-gefallene-held-von-los-angeles-a-951205.html || "Some 40 million people – including those in Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Tucson and San Diego — and 4 million acres of farmland rely on water from the Colorado River Basin, much of it stored in Lake Mead. [...] “We don’t know exactly how much groundwater we have left, so we don’t know when we’re going to run out,” Castle said in a press release announcing the study. “This is a lot of water to lose. We thought that the picture could be pretty bad, but this was shocking.” [...] By focusing only on the drop in Lake Mead and paying too-little attention to the drop in water levels underground, we have placed the West’s water security in serious jeopardy." - http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2014/07/30/groundwater-depletion-in-colorado-river-basin-adds-big-risks-to-water-security/
water  rights  California  Colorado  River  Colorado  River  Basin  Colorado  Basin  Lake  Mead  Lake  Powell  drought  weather  extreme  extreme  weather  USA  water  security  water  scarcity  water  supply  inefficiencies  marketplace  inefficiencies  marketplace  agriculture  industry  industrial  agriculture  agriculture  policy  Dust  Bowl  Aquifer  Groundwater  Las  Vegas  Ogallala  Aquifer  complexity  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  Public  non-rechargeable  aquifers 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Beijing to bar Symantec, Kaspersky anti-virus in procurement: report | Reuters
[ Collateral Damage, Economic cost for EVERYONE !!! Its like trade war. ](Reuters) - China has excluded U.S.-based Symantec Corp (SYMC.O) and Russia's Kaspersky Lab from a list of approved anti-virus software vendors, according to a Chinese media report suggesting Beijing is expanding efforts to limit use of foreign technology.
USA  NSA  surveillance  state  Orwellian  cyber  espionage  cyber  attack  cyber  security  cyberespionage  corporate  espionage  China  diplomacy  foreign  affairs  UK  GCHQ  BND  Germany  Europe  Wikileaks  Edward  Snowden  Whistleblower  unintended  consequences  complexity  presidency  barackobama  unknown  unknowns 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Leishmaniose-Gefahr: Sandmücken erstmals in Hessen entdeckt - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leishmaniasis ] Leishmaniose ist in den Tropen verbreitet, kommt aber auch im Mittelmeerraum vor. Wegen der Ausbreitung der Sandmücken nach Norden gibt es inzwischen auch in Deutschland Fälle bei Tieren und vereinzelt auch bei Menschen. Die Erkrankung wird von Einzellern (Protozoa) verursacht und kann über den Speichel blutsaugender Insekten übertragen werden. Die Erreger können Hautgeschwüre verursachen, den Nasen-Rachenbereich befallen oder schwere Leber-, Milz- oder Knochenmarksschäden verursachen.
climate  change  global  warming  climate  science  climate  system  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  flat  world  Germany 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Wachstum schwach wegen Innovationen und Investitionen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Währungsmanager stecken in einer unkomfortablen Lage: Die EZB erreicht das Ende ihrer Handlungsfähigkeit. Die kurzfristigen Zinsen hat sie bereits auf knapp über Null gesenkt, Einlagen bei der EZB werden sogar mit einer Strafgebühr geahndet. Mit ihrem neuen Programm zur zweckgebundenen Liquiditätsvergabe greift sie auch noch direkt ins Kreditgeschäft der Geschäftsbanken ein. Trotzdem erholt sich die Wirtschaft nur äußerst schleppend - mit dem Ausnahmefall DE. [...] Offenkundig befinden wir uns auf einem Abstellgleis der kapitalistischen Entwicklung. Derzeit ist die These von der "säkularen Stagnation" populär, von mehreren Dekaden mit niedrigem Wachstum, die vor uns liegen. Dazu scheinen die ultraniedrigen Zinsen in der EU, den USA und Japan zu passen. Aus diesem Blickwinkel zeigen langfristige Sätze nahe Null an, dass es kaum noch sinnvolle Investitionsmöglichkeiten gibt - dass zu wenige Unternehmen existieren, die ordentliche Renditen versprechen. [have to build pillars 4 future]
ECB  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  Germany  Europe  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  PIGS  BuBa  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  NPL  unknown  unknowns  complexity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  deleveraging  economic  history  USA  Japan  UK  Fed  BOE  productivity  output  gap  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  income  inequality  1%  Super  Rich  secular  stagnation  stagnation  deflation  deflationary  infrastructure  investment  investment  climate  change  Energiewende  knowledge  worker  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Silicon  Valley  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  education  policy  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Beton  Gold  Betongold  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  property  bubble  bond  bubble 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Personal Privacy Is Only One of the Costs of NSA Surveillance | Threat Level | WIRED
The Foundation’s report, released today, outlines some of the collateral damage of NSA surveillance in several areas, including: Economic losses to US businesses due to lost sales and declining customer trust. The deterioration of internet security as a result of the NSA stockpiling zero-day vulnerabilities, undermining encryption and installing backdoors in software and hardware products. Undermining the government’s credibility and leadership on “internet freedom” and governance issues such as censorship. -->> its like trade sanctions - but on the internet among other things. +++ http://youtu.be/DU_1yoUzKs8
USA  NSA  surveillance  state  Orwellian  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unknowns  presidency  barackobama  foreign  policy  foreign  affairs  diplomacy  GCHQ  BND  globalisation  globalization  sanctions  Europe  Germany  War  on  Terror  War  on  Drugs  China  Internet  Privacy  cyberespionage  cybersecurity  cyber  security  cyber  attack  cyberwar  cyberattack  cybercrime  Industrial  Espionage  trust  trustagent  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  accountability  oversight  Political  Governance  Democratic  Process  democracy  freedom  of  press  Pressefreiheit  Whistleblower  free  speech  self-censorship  Wikileaks  Edward  Snowden  Julian  Assange  TOR  TrueCrypt 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
The Rise Of Europe's Religious Right
For the most part, though, issues dear to social conservatives were a side issue in elections driven heavily by economic frustration. [...] The suddenness with which social conservatives became a force in Brussels has many progressives speculating that they are the creations of American social conservatives seeking to “export the culture wars.” [...] Today, American ties seem much more about a shared vision to build a global conservative movement rather than leaning on stronger and wealthier U.S. partners for support. // http://www.salon.com/2014/02/28/the_dying_right_why_christian_fundamentalists_are_in_panic_mode_partner/ || Pro Progressive - the hard things are hard bc they are worth doing it. It's easy to turn ones back. But its hard to hold your face into the storm that is brewing. Holding onto status quo is not worth the struggle, it is a futile short-term view - as the status quo is not sustainable.
No  Representation  Career  Politicians  Democratic  Process  democracy  European  Election  2014  UKIP  UK  France  European  Parliament  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  underemployed  structural  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  unemployment  living  standard  cost  of  living  quality  of  life  income  mobility  social  mobility  Toff  meritocratic  meritocracy  policy  error  policy  folly  Makers  Politics  GFC  faultlines  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Tea  Party  Religion  Germany  liberal  economic  reform  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  uncertainty  immigration  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  Future  of  Work  skill-biased  technological  change  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  security  financial  security  well-being  neoconservatives  neoconservatism  radicalism  extremism  conservative  Religious  Far-Right  Christianity  Christian  Fundamentalists  LGBT  reproductive  rights  abortion  gay  marriage  gaymarriage  gay  rights  gayrights  Angela  Merkel  CDU  CSU  National  Front  Brussels  human  progress  progressive  human  tragedy  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  stagnation  babyboomers  generationy  Millennials  society  civic  society  civic  life  society  society  error  folly 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Stanford biologist warns of early stages of Earth's 6th mass extinction event
In a new review of scientific literature and analysis of data published in Science, an international team of scientists cautions that the loss and decline of animals is contributing to what appears to be the early days of the planet's sixth mass biological extinction event. [...] And while previous extinctions have been driven by natural planetary transformations or catastrophic asteroid strikes, the current die-off can be associated to human activity, a situation that the lead author Rodolfo Dirzo, a professor of biology at Stanford, designates an era of "Anthropocene defaunation." // Book http://bit.ly/M47bEd "our own downfall at our own hands. Domino's are falling." - Guardian Series: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/series/sixth-extinction || http://bit.ly/1jzy1Ol Naomi Klein: This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate
environmental  disaster  living  environment  ecological  disaster  mass  extinction  Poaching  global  warming  climate  change  air  pollution  water  pollution  ocean  warming  ocean  acidification  heavy  metal  pollution  pollution  evolution  Biodiversity  society  human  progress  human  tragedy  Anthropocene  Anthropocene  defaunation  deforestation  Amazonas  rainforest  monoculture  industrial  agriculture  Farming  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  zoonosis  Zoonotic  Diseases  apocalypse  Elizabeth  Kolbert  human  being  humanity  climate  science  climate  system  weather  extreme  extreme  weather  drought  Wildfire  flooding  flash  floods  fossil  fuel  carbon  dioxide  carbonfootprint  carbonemission  Naomi  Klein  book  climate  crisis  Career  Politicians  Political  Governance  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  accountability  personal  values  corporatism  crony  capitalism  short-term  thinking  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Wall  Street  transparency  oversight  regulators  self-regulation  regulation  fracking  corporate  corporate  values  Consumerism  consumerist  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Human Rights Watch: NSA-Überwachung schadet Journalismus - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Kein Einzelfall: Amerikas Ausspähapparat erschwere die Arbeit investigativer Reporter zusehends, berichtet die Menschenrechtsorganisation Human Rights Watch (HRW) in einer Studie, die sie an diesem Montag vorlegte. Darin steckt tiefe Ironie: War es doch - neben den Enthüllungen des früheren NSA-Manns Edward Snowden - investigativer Journalismus, der das wahre Ausmaß der Bespitzelung überhaupt erst bekannt machte. Der Schnüffelwahn schade der Meinungs- und Pressefreiheit, klagt HRW. Uramerikanische Werte wie "Freiheit, Demokratie und eine offene, verantwortliche Regierung" seien "schwer bedroht" - durch die groß angelegten, staatlichen Überwachungsprogramme, gepaart mit verschärften, oft gnadenlosen Maßnahmen zur Geheimhaltung regierungseigener Interna. [...] "Wenn die USA diese Sorgen nicht schnell und effektiv anspricht, könnte das ernsten, langfristigen Schaden für das Gefüge der Demokratie in unserem Land haben"
USA  NSA  Edward  Snowden  investigative  journalism  journalismus  surveillance  state  Orwellian  free  speech  Pressefreiheit  freedom  of  press  Whistleblower  Wikileaks  Julian  Assange  human  rights  Watch  GCHQ  BND  human  progress  democracy  Democratic  Process  accountability  oversight  Political  Governance  Career  Politicians  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  revolving  door  corruption  bribery  War  on  Terror  encryption  pluralism  Washington  presidency  barackobama  human  tragedy  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  Politics  trust  trustagent  confidence  personal  values  values 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Grundwasser-Verlust in USA droht Dürre-Folgen zu verschärfen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=878775848816533&id=182633835097408 "New study finds groundwater supply to 40 million people in western states drying up much faster than predicted. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061055/abstract Time for them to make the connection to food choice. Over 1 trillion gallons of water are used each year in California alone just to irrigate their 900,000 acres of alfalfa--all going to livestock.
extreme  weather  Colorado  River  Colorado  basin  Colorado  River  Utah  Nevada  California  New  Mexico  Texas  Colorado  Phoenix  agriculture  industry  agriculture  policy  drought  USA  climate  science  climate  system  global  warming  water  security  water  scarcity  water  supply  Aquifer  Lake  Mead  Lake  Powell  inefficiencies  waste  water  waste  food  waste  weather  extreme  weather  system  drinking  water  water  pollution  Dust  Bowl  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  climate  change  San  Francisco  Silicon  Valley  Los  Angeles  San  Diego  Mexico  industrial  agriculture  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  livestock  farming  Factory  Vegan  omnivore  sustainability  sustainable 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Henrik Müller über Wirtschaftswachstum 2014: Die Pessimisten sind los - SPIEGEL ONLINE
GDP  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  2014  economic  history  digital  economy  happiness  index  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  knowledge  worker  knowledge  economy  Age  digital  artist  digital  content  content  creator  New  academia  academics  Wikipedia  freemium  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  deflation  deflationary  lost  generation  lost  decade  Year  of  Code  White-collar  Blue-collar  hybrid  work  workless  6-hour  work  day  workforce  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  productivity  output  gap  Silicon  Valley  education  policy  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  disposable  income  leisure  time  Robert  Skidelsky  volunteering  volunteer  maximisation  of  happiness  Jack  of  All  Trades  Future  Future  of  book  Tim  Ferriss  work  life  balance  worklife  underemployed  self-employment  freelance  freelancing  complexity  unknown  unknowns  GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  Europe  UK  USA  PIGS  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Richard  Koo  Super  Cycle  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  debt  jubilee  Japan  BOE  Fed  ECB  Open  Source  Linux  GitHub  BOJ  sharing  economy  less  more  zeitgeist  generational  change  Millennials  generationy  Consumerism  digital  digital  consume 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Die Propagandaschlacht um die Gentechnik | EXCLUSIV IM ERSTEN | ARD - YouTube
- evolution ... unbeatable, weed killers become ineffective. and propaganda to make hunger and food poverty disappear is a PR/marketing crutch. >> no evidence that GMO crop is long-term more sustainable (using expensive GMO crop and expensive GMO related crop herbicides and pesticides) than EU conventional non-GMO crop agricultural policy (still monocrop agri culture). // +++ industrial agriculture policy has to GO AWAY FROM MONOCROP!!!
Roundup  Monsanto  Protection  Act  GMO  GMO  crop  Monsanto  glyphosate  herbicide  Dogma  propaganda  communication  PR  public  relations  language  marketing  Europe  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  interest  groups  corporate  governance  corporatism  crony  capitalism  short-term  thinking  UK  Germany  Career  Politicians  transparency  accountability  ethics  governance  Political  Wall  Street  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unknowns  Industrial  Farming  agriculture  agriculture  industry  agriculture  policy  monoculture  monocrop  mono  agriculture  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  incomplete  information  sustainability  sustainable  Food  Chain  corporate  culture  public  health  policy  health  policy  Makers 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Zerstört der Klimawandel unsere Denkmäler? | Zwischen Spessart & Karwendel | BR - YouTube
- rising temperatures also inside buildings, historic buildings. micro climates in buildings. further - the extreme winds and storms in the future; steep pitched roofs from the past, especially old ones from historic buildings, can't hand that kind of force that is coming. those historic pitched roofs have to be refitted with diagonal ?battens? ... further - historical buildings have to be refitted with climate control systems to keep humidity low during summer days to prevent mould not only on walls, but also on paintings and other stuff inside of historical buildings.. another expense.
weather  extreme  extreme  weather  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unknowns  climate  change  climate  science  climate  system  global  warming  drought  flooding  weather  system  climate  models  historic  buildings  pitched  roof  economic  damage  humidity 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Bill Gurley schools NYU professor: Uber will be 25x bigger than you think | PandoDaily
[ + long tail use cases and cases that seem in retrospect obvious but currently are foggy (ie owning a car in the city for ppl a luxury good), car ownership deemed inefficient/waste of money; when car is used only ~5% during the day and there are clearly cheaper and if not even more convenient options of daily transportation on offer. ] Gurley, who is one of the smartest and most articulate figures in all of venture capital (and who just happens to be an early Uber investor and board member) laid out a more than 4,500-word argument for why Damodaran underestimated the Uber opportunity by no less than a factor of 25. The Benchmark Capital partner was diplomatic, apologetic even, but that made his dismantling of the professor’s reasoning no less thorough.
Blue  Ocean  Uber  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  inefficiencies  value  creation  added  value  intangible  value  Proposition  Core  Product  Proposition  Lyft  Travis  Kalanick  Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  frictionless  friction  convenience  management  Product/Market  Fit  consumer  aspirational  experience  Product  Design  Vision  leadership  transportation  public  transportation  urbanisation  urban  planning  city  living  long-tail  longtail  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  hypothesis  incomplete  information  unknown  unknowns  complexity  unintended  consequences 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Secrets From The Brains Of 13 Creative Geniuses | Fast Company | Business Innovation
It's not a high IQ that indicates creative genius, she's found. In her research, Andreasen has explored the link between mental illness and creativity, finding a strong connection between the two. [ ... correlation does not equal causation, but even the psychiatrists and psychologists point out that many patients have a 'creative valve' ... ] [...] "You cannot force creativity to happen--every creative person can attest to that," writes Andreasen. "But the essence of creativity is making connections and solving puzzles."
creativity  mental  health  mental  illness  genius  complexity  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Is This What A Bursting Bubble Looks Like? - YouTube
- bear market, not a 2008/09 decline, more like a lost decade of little productivity growth and very very slow closing of the still existing output gap. - companies benefit form technological progress (accelerating); get more done with less people. +++ https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/posts/10154276062445062
asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  NIRP  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  Fed  ECB  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  2014  lost  decade  productivity  output  gap  G20  G  Zero  G8  Europe  USA  UK  complexity  unknown  unknowns  Taper  deflation  deflationary  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  middle  class  skill-biased  technological  change  technological  progress  knowledge  worker  knowledge  economy  economic  history  history  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  global  imbalances  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  debt  jubilee  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  default  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  signal  vs  noise  noise  dysfunctional  marketplace  efficiencies  market  dynamics  market  intervention  financial  market  market  failure  market-failure  lost  generation  lostdecade  lostgeneration  currency  debasement  fiat  currency  fiat  money 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
The Weight of the Nation: Part 1 - Consequences (HBO Docs) - YouTube
non stakeholder rootless global conglomerate corporate crony capitalistic tax evading food giants have no shared economic interest in the sustainability of health of a nation represented by each individual and as an aggregation // https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MJnm5X9NN0 - The Weight of the Nation: Poverty and Obesity (HBO Docs) >> the sub-title "Why healthy food isn't an option" is just bullshit! just stop subsidizing grains and meat/dairy. and subsidize vegetables, greens, fresh produce and co! It's about food education, peer pressure, and gov funded "health assistant's" [hand holding, in place (kitchen, grocery store) teaching in every GP office available and per perscription. But Pharma doesn't think they it makes enough money. If it were short-term money maker, they would do that. Instead, gov has to spend the money now instead of spending 1000x more money to cover the cost of the mess in 20 years down the road (health care cost).
obesity  obesity  epidemic  USA  UK  public  health  policy  public  health  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  big  pharma  pharmaceutical  industry  pharma  Standard  American  Diet  Western  pattern  Fast  Food  processed  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  junk  poverty  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  shared  economic  interest  industry  omnivore  Vegan  crony  capitalism  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  exploitation  revolving  door  Washington  Europe  world  lifestyle  society  evolution  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  chronic  diseases  diabetes  heart  disease  liver  disease  non-alcoholic  fatty  liver  disease  coronary  artery  disease  vascular  disease  Cardiovascular  disease  chronic  low-grade  inflammation  chronic  stress  Oxidative  stress  alcoholism  alcohol  abuse  NHS  public  interest  public  discourse  public  awareness  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  policy  folly  policy  error  Makers  poverty  child  poverty  Food  Chain  Whole  Plant  Foods  prices  health  policy  education  policy  agriculture  policy 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Steve Jurvetson never sells a share of a company he invests in - YouTube
59m7s >> what if we erase the digital divide ... transforming the pyramid into a conical spike because of winner takes all network effects. .... >> ~30hr work week - Robert Skidelsky, ... contribution to the collective worth society, unpaid. - unconditional living wage/income ... a basic income redistribution. fairness. people that work in low to non-profit companies because of added value to society ... paid by excess profits of X ... we are all in the same boat. we are all interconnected. dependent on each other. +++ http://youtu.be/pDVDWNguPs4?t=1h5m20s // doing more with fewer staff. & practical skills you need in today's workplace, u don't learn at university. Elon Musk, the most important men 4 the future. bc he's swinging big, willing to fail with his ambition(s). attracts similar minds. [down the line come's Bill Gates 2.0, Larry & Sergey, & others that work on sustainability of food and energy.] ADD Larry Page on that topic - http://on.recode.net/1qZC7oZ // vid id Wdnp_7atZ0M
peak  employment  unemployment  structural  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  employment  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  Year  of  Code  digital  divide  productivity  output  gap  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  competitive  advantage  competitiveness  competitive  Competition  social  mobility  income  mobility  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  capitalism  USA  offshoring  outsourcing  1%  network  effects  global  competitive  landscape  workforce  Robert  Skidelsky  academia  academics  economic  history  history  tax  free  income  income  redistribution  income  distribution  fairness  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unknowns  underemployed  economics  of  abundance  social  safety  net  happiness  index  GDP  Chamath  Palihapitiya  society  market  society  social  society  civic  society  civil  society  Industrial  Revolution  pluralistic  society  western  society  efficiency  marketplace  efficiencies  skill-biased  technological  change  capital  skills  practical  skill  set  practical  skills  skills  skill  education  policy  formal  education  education  perfect  storm  Indignados  Indignants  occupywallstreet  Elon  Musk  disrupting  markets  disruption  sustainability  sustainable  workless  hybrid  work  working  class  working  poor  working  squeezed  middle  class  Larry  Page  Sergey  B 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
IAMA: Christopher Hitchens | reddit's top ten questions - YouTube
moral hero, grit and grain: book "a struggle for power." many minutes in 'working class adopting capitalism without it's cruelties.' corporations, politicians, there got to be transparency & accountability. avoiding ecological, environmental & economic disaster, exploitation, secrecy, misery @ the workplace & parasitic behaviour (leeching out the life of the host, the planet, till death). end of video; debate, debating, speech, rhetoric and flair; tip - improv. Socratic method; process of elimination, eliminating all questions a good means of ordering the mind. Christopher Hitchens 1949-2011 BBC tribute http://youtu.be/TsUSb13m5VY < Religion "ur created sick & commanded to be well," and talking about Cancer. + It is unbelievable that Religion is still a power of force and way of thinking in Political and Policy circles. // Paxman meets Hitchens - http://youtu.be/Y-s9AyNQyCw | + on ABC1 Lateline http://youtu.be/yI30VwPZm-o - see related content, other interviews during his ill health.
Christopher  Hitchens  book  capitalism  USA  Republic  revolution  history  accountability  corporatism  lobby  workplace  parasitic  behaviour  corporate  governance  corporate  culture  working  poor  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  skill-biased  technological  change  revolving  door  Lobbying  lobbyist  Career  Politicians  zombie  corporations  corporations  corporate  media  Politics  Public  Policy  unknown  unknowns  complexity  unintended  consequences  working  class  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  transparency  Germany  Europe  UK  Public  Life  debate  speeches  speech  rethorik  rhetoric  improv  Socratic  method  Religion  cancer 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
The ocean is swallowing up Virginia so rapidly that its leaders are forgetting to bicker about climate change - Quartz
That’s probably because Virginia is more vulnerable to storm-surge destruction than anywhere else on the US’s east coast. Problems are particularly acute in Norfolk, Virginia’s second-biggest city and home to the world’s largest naval base; sea levels there are now 14.5 inches (37 cm) higher than they were in 1930—so high that parts of Norfolk flood when the moon is full. Sea levels are rising faster there than anywhere else along the coast, due to the vagaries of ocean currents:
climate  change  global  warming  rising  sea  levels  USA  complexity  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  weather  extreme  extreme  weather  flooding  storm  surge  Virginia 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
BIS Slams "Market Euphoria", Finds "Puzzling Disconnect" Between Economy And Market | Zero Hedge
"... it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally....  Despite the euphoria in financial markets, investment remains weak. Instead of adding to productive capacity, large firms prefer to buy back shares or engage in mergers and acquisitions.   As history reminds us, there is little appetite for taking the long-term view. Few are ready to curb financial booms that make everyone feel illusively richer.  Or to hold back on quick fixes for output slowdowns, even if such measures threaten to add fuel to unsustainable financial booms. Or to address balance sheet problems head-on during a bust when seemingly easier policies are on offer. The temptation to go for shortcuts is simply too strong, even if these shortcuts lead nowhere in the end. [...] " Never before have central banks tried to push so hard."
short-term  thinking  short-term  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Wall  Street  WallStreet  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  2014  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  liquidity  trap  BIS  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  faultlines  financial  market  productivity  output  gap  fiscal  stimulus  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  skill-biased  technological  change  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  infrastructure  investment  corporate  governance  public  good  public  interest  public  investment  Career  Politicians  Politics  democracy  Democratic  Process  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  stakeholder  shareholder  shareholder  value  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  industrial  policy  energy  policy  fiscal  policy  education  policy  BOE  Fed  ECB  BOJ 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Tackling climate change would grow global economy, World Bank says | Environment | theguardian.com
New report from the World Bank (yes, the World Bank) put to rest claims that the world could not afford to act on climate change. Their president said “These policies make economic sense. This report removes another false barrier, another false argument, not to take action against climate change.” Please remember this when our government claims that they will not take action on climate change if it hurts the economy. [...] “This modelling shows that smart choices that will also improve local and global economies,” Kim said. The findings are also a step forward from the work of economists such as Lord Stern who have focused on the costs of delaying action on climate change. The World Bank report was the first off the blocks of a number of economic studies meant to further the case for taking action on climate change ahead of a critical meeting at the United Nations in September. The UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, has invited world leaders to the UN to try to build momentum in th
climate  change  global  warming  World  Bank  IMF  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  extreme  weather  intangible  value  carbonfootprint  carbonemission  weather  extreme  drought  flooding  food  prices  food  poverty  water  security  water  scarcity  water  supply 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - 'No wage rises' until jobless rate falls to 5% says MPC member
Martin Weale said there may be more spare capacity in the economy than policymakers had previously estimated. +++ Bank of England 'puzzled' by productivity gap - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27857472 >> London Finance Centre Canary Wharf drove up productivity in the run up to the 2008 GFC :: UK workforce as a whole, lacking skills for the future, thus the productivity gap; Mobile Creative, Mobile Creatives, skill-biased technological change, knowledge worker, White-collar Worker, Blue-collar Worker. Year of Code is too late and a drop/tea-cup in the ocean. College needs to offer Computer Science Degrees (Technichal College), not just University. College's offers courses as "Beauty Technicians." Services Industry that does NOT scale. A locals hairdressers service can not be exported, sold and consumed in other countries. Period.
spare  capacity  output  gap  UK  productivity  recovery  2014  BOE  economic  history  unknown  unknowns  complexity  unemployment  structural  unemployment  economy  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  austerity  Impediments  faultlines  structural  imbalance  productivity  gap  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  skill-biased  technological  change  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  workforce  Year  of  Code  21stcentury  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  education  Higher  formal  education  business  education  education  bubble  un-college  College  scaling  scale  microeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomics  macroprudential  policy  microprudential  regulation  Public  interest  retraining  STEM  education  policy  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  long-term  thinking  accountability  Politics  transparency  democracy  Democratic  Process  free  press  free  speech  pluralistic  society  plurality  pluralism  freedom  of  press  debate  discourse 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
The War Nerd: Here’s everything you need to know about “too extreme for Al Qaeda” I.S.I.S. | PandoDaily
As the Scriptures remind us, “Do not believe the hype.” The hype of the moment is ISIS, the Sunni militia that just drove the so-called Iraqi Army out of Mosul, Tikrit, and other Iraqi cities. This is one of those dramatic military reverses that mean a lot less than meets the eye. The “Iraqi Army” routed by ISIS wasn’t really a national army, and ISIS isn’t really a dominant military force. It was able to occupy those cities because they were vacuums, abandoned by a weak, sectarian force. Moving into vacuums like this is what ISIS is good at. And that’s the only thing ISIS is good at. +++ http://pando.com/2014/06/17/isis-uses-social-media-to-say-dont-fuck-with-us/ +++ For what is NSA and CIA and Pentagon good for? Isn't that something that foreign service should have had a tap on? +++ and then those words after years of not acting on the rise of ISIS in Syria; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27898724
ISIS  Iraq  Syrien  Syria  USA  Europe  Russia  foreignaffairs  foreign  policy  foreign  affairs  diplomacy  unknown  unknowns  complexity  unintended  consequences  blackswan  NSA  CIA  World  Police  UK  MI6  GCHQ  BND  Germany  Middle  East 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
dctp.tv | Frank Schirrmacher - Emigration Of Thinking Because Of Algorithms.
... apart from teaching algo's, people have to be taught too - to think about the third factor that puts everything in question. algo's are about the absolute solution to problem x. thus we become blind to factor x, the third factor, the black swan (see GFC, we are not in a bubble, houseprices never reverted back to the mean). Narrative, doubt (zweifel), intuition - vs - algo's outcome. Without narrative, what world is that, where we just have results only? No narrative (linearity), no grammar. What world is that?
book  evolution  singularity  algorithm  algo  algorithms  Frank  Schirrmacher  technological  progress  ethical  machine  computer  science  degree  history  blackswan  GFC  Google  Facebook  filter  bubble  filters  filter  nassimtaleb  Nassim  Taleb  academia  academics  economic  history  debate  digital  economy  digital  world  unknown  unknowns  zweifel  intuition  narrative  doubt  Twitter  Pinterest  okcupid  Philosophy 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Elon Musk on his reasons for pessimism | MSNBC
will take +20 years to exchange gas guzzelers with electric cars. and planet is at its limit of capacity to take up carbonemission's. we are near the cliff, and when we are at the cliff - consequences are unstoppable, catastrophic. - there has to be a price on carbon emissions of any kind. >> ie petrochemical industry has to pay a 1, 2, 3% tax on their profit, incrementally increasing ... money is put in to subsidize clean tech research, product, employment.
carbonfootprint  carbonemission  climate  change  global  warming  unknown  unknowns  complexity  climate  science  climate  system  climatechange  climate  weather  extreme  extreme  weather  Elon  Musk  renewable  energy  clean  tech  gigafactory  industrial  policy  subsidies  subsidizing  financial  incentive  incentive  carbon  trading  scheme 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
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