asterisk2a + unconventional   98

Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Interview With Mohamed El-Erian: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View
7:50 New Normal is secular stagnation and decades-long NIRP, ZIRP, QE distortion. structural, secular. no cyclical recovery. but long secular challenges; prolonged period of low growth. // also inequality! // currently policy makers subsidise debtors, subsidise creditors - financial repression. promote risk taking. // richard koo would not agree with el-erian's notion that gov balance sheets are same as household balance sheets. // 12:10 demographic issue! political. and economic elements in it of secular stagnation. [...] borrowing growth // rise of far-right! // corps sitting on cash // inequality! // bc of lived in artificial world of borrowed growth, created massive divergence. // min 15:30 richard koo would not agree that central banks are the only game in town. central banks have complained abt austerity gov. // min 20 - Feds intellectually inflexible. comfort zone. self-regulation & great moderation. // reflation didnt work bc no fixed fundamentals // perfect storm! lost trust.
New  Normal  financial  repression  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  secular  stagnation  GFC  credit  bubble  book  western  world  emerging  middle  class  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Paul  Krugman  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Joseph  Stiglitz  distortion  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  system  retirement  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  far-right  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Pact  Schuldenbremse  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  reflate  reflation  trust  trustagent  distrust  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  public  sentiment  public  perception  bank  bailout  Japan  Abenomics  AIIB  IMF  China  BRIC  self-regulation  Great  Moderation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
From Ticker - S&P: QE is driving inequality between the generations
Quantitative easing (QE) stabilized the economy but also exacerbated wealth disparity between rich and poor, mainly by boosting financial asset prices and house prices. //&! [ LOW PAY MINIMUM WAGE JOB CREATION ] During the U.K.’s recent “jobs-rich, pay-poor” economic recovery, strong employment gains were accompanied by a further rise of already high wage dispersion and an ever-growing share of part-time employment in lower income groups. //&! In the context of the tight housing market, low interest rates and QE are among the drivers behind the widening wealth and income gap between younger and older generations and between those on the housing ladder and those not on it. //&! Inequality is damaging! // bit.ly/1QtauyZ - Bank of England's recovery policies have increased inequality, finds S&P [...] spending too much on rent, not able to save for deposit! //&! bit.ly/1PPyEYl &! ti.me/1sbBtrz
QE  inequality  reflate  reflation  distortion  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  bank  bailout  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  ECB  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  Housing  Crisis  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  budget  deficit  austerity  George  Osborne  income  distribution  poverty  trap  tax  credit  low  pay  low  income  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  part-time  Tories  nasty  party  homeless  homelessness  social  affordable  Conservative  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  Funding  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  economic  history 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  deposit  levy  MarioDraghi  Abenomics  economic  history  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  recovery  Yen  Euro  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  distortion  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  debt  bubble  New  Normal  financial  repression  faultlines  global  economy  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Japan  UK  secular  stagnation  western  world  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflation  Sweden  Switzerland  China  Yuan  JGB  2016  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Super  Cycle  recession  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Why is the pound falling so sharply? - BBC News
Weak economic data is casting doubt on the future performance of the UK economy, with inflation persistently well below the Bank of England's 2% target and earnings growth slowing down from a six-year high. Earlier this month, figures for November showed that UK industrial output had suffered its sharpest decline since 2013. Looking further ahead, investors are worried about the outcome of a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU. As Andy Scott of foreign exchange services firm HiFX put it: "Concerns over the UK economy and the risk of a Brexit look likely to continue to haunt sterling." Traders are also generally more risk-averse in the light of the global turmoil caused by Chinese market problems and falling oil prices, which makes them reluctant to buck sterling's downward trend.
UK  BOE  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  debtoverhang  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  industrial  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  MPC  energy  policy  energy  price  competitive  competitiveness  STEM  underinvestment  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  corporate  tax  rate  subsidies  subsidizing  secular  stagnation  immigration  migration  job  creation  low  income  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  London  Scottish  Independence  Scottish  referendum  Devolution  Brexit  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  global  economy  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  student  debt  baddebt  NPL  private  debt  economic  history  Niall  Ferguson  democracy  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  precarious  work  Contractor  low  pay  minimum  wage  George  Osborne  Tories  dogma  ideology  Conservative  Party  neoliberal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
The Great Unraveling Looms - Blame The 'Austrians'? | Zero Hedge
Well, well: who would have believed it. First the Bank for International Settlements comes out with a paper that links credit booms to the boom-bust business cycle, then Britain's Adam Smith Institute publishes a paper by Anthony Evans that recommends the Bank of England should ditch its powers over monetary policy and move towards free banking. [...] The BIS paper will be the more influential of the two in policy circles, and this is not the first time the BIS has questioned the macroeconomic assumptions behind the actions of the major central banks. [...] Targeting nominal GDP is not a perfect answer.
credit  bubble  economic  history  BIS  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  working  poor  credit  card  debt  household  debt  property  bubble  consumer  debt  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  China  USA  subprime  car  loan  debt  servitude  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  Student  debt  Super  Cycle  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Fed  ECB  BOE  Japan  BOJ  Abenomics  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  income  inequality  low  income  income  redistribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  group  think  think  tank  vested  interest  interest  groups  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  democracy  democracy 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
IMF warns of new financial crisis if interest rates rise | Business | The Guardian
Fund says governments in emerging markets should prepare now for a new credit crunch because of a 10-year corporate borrowing binge [...] “Shocks to the corporate sector could quickly spill over to the financial sector and generate a vicious cycle as banks curtail lending. Decreased loan supply would then lower aggregate demand and collateral values, further reducing access to finance and thereby economic activity, and in turn, increasing losses to the financial sector,” the IMF warns. [...] “Emerging markets must prepare for the adverse domestic stability implications of global financial tightening,” the IMF says.
credit  bubble  2015  Taper  centralbanks  IMF  OECD  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  Richard  Koo  Debt  Super  Cycle  BRIC  AIIB  World  Bank  recovery  global  economy  global  trade  globalization  globalisation  flat  borderless  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  FOMO  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  malinvestment  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  China  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  OPEC  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  western  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  austerity  divergence  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  Niall  Ferguson  Fed  mandate  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  bailout  banking  crisis  crisis  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inequality  Gini  coefficient  NPL  shadow  banking  zombie  corporations  junk  bond  creditrating  distortion  financial  financial  crisis  GFC 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England concerns over buy-to-let boom - BBC News
The growing buy-to-let property market in the UK could post a threat to wider financial stability, a Bank of England committee has said. [...] Buy-to-let mortgage lending had the potential to "amplify" a housing boom and bust, the Bank's Financial Stability Committee (FPC) concluded. Lending in this sector has risen by 40% since 2008, the FPC said. It stopped short of suggesting any intervention by government or regulators at this stage. "The FPC is alert to the rapid growth of the market and potential developments in underwriting standards," the committee said.
Buy-to-Let  Right  to  Buy  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  BOE  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  distortion  mortgage  market  NPL  Boom  and  Bust  irrational  exuberance  rent-seeking  rentier  generation  rent  Buy  to  Tories  Conservative  Party  Makers  Mark  Carney  FOMO  underinvestment  productive  investment  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  excess  reserves  zombie  banks  investment  banking  retail  banking  London  Westminster  Career  Politicians  recovery  GFC  No  Representation  Millennials  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  infrastructure  investment  George  Osborne  constituency  babyboomers 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Fed chief Yellen says US rate rise still likely this year - BBC News
The US remains "on track" for an interest rate rise this year, Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen has said. The central bank head said as long as inflation was stable and the US economy was strong enough to boost jobs, the conditions would be right for a rise. Despite expectations of a rise this month, the Fed held rates, in part due to fears about global economic growth. Ms Yellen, speaking at the University of Massachusetts, said US economic prospects "generally appear solid". Speaking a week after the Fed delayed that long-anticipated hike, she said she and other policymakers did not expect recent global economic and financial market developments to significantly affect the central bank's policy. Much recent inflationary weakness is due to special and likely temporary factors, such as a strong dollar and low oil prices, she said. //&! http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-25/janet-yellen-s-flip-flop-confuses-markets
Janet  Yellen  Fed  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  secular  stagnation  western  world  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  QT  petrodollar  Petroleum  Industry  commodity  prices  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  Brazil  Russia  India  BIS  Richard  Koo  global  economy  global  trade  2015  BOE  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  household  debt  consumer  debt  private  debt  credit  card  car  loan  Student  deleveraging  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  growth  low  income  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  job  market  labour  economics  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  competitive  competition  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  recovery  fiscal  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  asset  bubble  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  Super  Rich  1%  hot-money  currency-war  currency  war  currency  debasement  Dollar  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  distortion  irrational  exuberance  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  USA  UK 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bubble Machine Timeline: Visual Evidence Of The Fed's "Third Mandate" | Zero Hedge
The problem with rushing to combat any sign of economic or financial market turmoil by resorting immediately to counter-cyclical policies is that the creative destruction that would normally serve to purge speculative excess isn’t allowed to operate and so, misallocated capital is allowed to linger from crisis to crisis, making the next boom and subsequent bust even larger than the last.
financial  crisis  financial  cycle  business  cycle  centralbanks  BIS  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Fed  mandate  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  credit  bubble  Debt  Super  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  dot.com  GFC  recovery  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  Boom  and  Bust  distortion  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  bank  bailout  creative  destruction  Failure  market  Career  Politicians  Ben  Bernanke  Greenspan-Put  alangreenspan  Janet  Yellen  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  inequality  Gini  coefficient  social  cohesion  social  tension  social  contract  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  servitude  sovereign  crisis  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  western  world  crony  capitalism  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  corruption  bribery  revolving  door  capitalism  Wall  Street  shared  economic  interest  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  investment  banking  retail  banking  post-capitalism 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England may cut rates, says chief economist - BBC News
Softening employment figures and weakening surveys on manufacturing and construction output suggested growth in the UK could slow in the second half of the year and inflation might not pick up as expected. Furthermore, problems in emerging markets could be a drag on UK growth and the headwinds from those economies were unlikely to abate any time soon, Mr Haldane added. //&! In a wide-ranging speech that called on central bankers to think more radically to fend off the next downturn – including the notion of abolishing cash – Haldane warned the UK was not ready for higher borrowing costs. He described recent events in Greece and China as "the latest leg of what might be called a three-part crisis trilogy."
China  sovereign  debt  crisis  European  Union  BRIC  credit  bubble  2015  headwinds  Fed  mandate  BOE  bond  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  QT  British  Pound  Sterling  Dollar  petrodollar  FX  reserves  excess  reserves  liquidity  trap  GFC  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  Pact  Schuldenbremse  George  Osborne  budget2015  David  Cameron  industrial  policy  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Research  competitiveness  competitive  differentiate  differentiation  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  business  confidence  business  investment  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  Niall  Ferguson  secular  stagnation  western  world  deflationary  deflation  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  education  policy  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  tax  code  corporate  tax  rate  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  monetary  monetary  debt  unconve 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
RICHARD KOO: 'Struggle between markets and central banks has only just begun' - Business Insider
… much of the rise in share prices and fall in currency values under QE were nothing more than liquidity-driven phenomena divorced from real economy fundamentals. Now that an end to QE is in sight, it is time for a correction. Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks several months ago about elevated stock market valuations were most likely a reference to this bubble. A correction of some kind was inevitable as the Fed moved to normalize monetary policy. However, it still needed a trigger, and that was provided by China. [...] “The market gyrations of the last two months represent just the beginning of the QE trap”, says Koo.
Richard  Koo  Taper  2015  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Janet  Yellen  Fed  mandate  China  BRIC  global  economy  global  trade  western  world  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  property  bubble  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  distortion  correction  Student  Loan  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BIS  centralbanks  BOE  Abenomics  BOJ  ECB  Fed  unconventional  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  excess  reserves  retail  banking  consumer  debt  household  debt  deleveraging  wage  growth  income  growth  low  income  marginal  propensity  to  consume  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  Niall  Ferguson  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  recovery  GFC  austerity  Schuldenbremse  Pact  European  Union  UK  USA  Career  Politicians  crony  capitalism  No  Representation  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  sovereign  debt  crisis  PR  spin  doctor  reframing  framing  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  investment  banking  business  investment  business  confidence  Blue  Ocean  PBOC  New  Normal  economic  growth  monetary  stimulus 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Fed has to deal with its own zombie apocalypse
"However, there are pockets of greater weakness like these zombie companies. These pockets are likely to see some more turbulence than overall conditions. Some companies definitely will go out of business." It isn't just the zombies, though, that should worry about higher rates. Corporate America overall has been piling on the debt, which grew 8.3 percent in the second quarter, according to figures the Fed released Friday. [...] Michael Contopoulos, high-yield strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said the high-yield space is a mess no matter what the Fed does. Global economic weakness and deteriorating fundamentals are making it increasingly harder for the Fed to underwrite junk debt through a zero funds rate. [...] Earnings for junk companies have been "incredibly weak," [...] "leverage is at all-time highs" while "defaults and downgrades are creeping into the market." [...] the issues with high-yield could be more secular in nature.
zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Junk  Bond  Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  USA  Richard  Koo  interest  payments  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unconventional  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  distortion  unknown  unkown  complexity  QT  2015  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  credit  ratings  secular  stagnation  western  world  refinancing  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  corporate  debt  leverage  margin  trading  reflate  reflation  productivity  UK  Europe  output  gap  competitive  competition  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  New  Normal  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
World Bank warns on US rate rise - BBC News
[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4
Taper  Fed  BOE  2015  BIS  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  World  Bank  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Brazil  India  South  Africa  Russia  Europe  UK  BOJ  Abenomics  liquidity  credit  squeeze  excess  reserves  PBOC  economic  history  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  ECB  commodity  prices  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  petrodollar  QT  FX  reserves  global  trade  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  western  deflationary  deflation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  refinancing  creditrating  creditrisk  deleveraging  private  debt  household  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  low  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  downward  mobility  working  poor  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Sozialer  Abstieg  j 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: Good news! B rounds have doubled in value over five years!
B Round! doubling down on (to a certain point) proven ideas as they move to make themselves solid/viable (building business model & continued growth if not even putting some more gasoline on the fire with a B Round - allocation of resources). thus there is competition thus bidding up in a private market. BUT BUT also reflects the rising cost! Rising cost to grow, the war for talent to scale, and the cost in said hubs/ecosystems where the talent are already working on scaling other companies, where rent is sky high and space rare to expand office, ops, ramp up head count, ... // why, on a side note!, ? because global ZIRP, NIRP, QE, hunt for yield, FOMO, property speculation, alternative asset management and allocation (newly minted paper millionaers) have bid up prices in metropolitan and hot cities by credit bubbles around the world. bc financial markets are global, thus your allocation/diversification is global, not limited where ur home addr is. adding to volatiliy too bc of froth!
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  Party  Round  SPV  Venture  Capital  Private  Market  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  B  Round  A  Round  growth  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  2015  cost  of  living  credit  bubble  cost  of  entry  aspirational  leverage  margin  trading  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  Fed  unintended  consequences  burn  rate  runway  ECB  Mutual  Fund  unknown  unkown  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  economic  growth  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  financial  financial  repression  western  world  Developing  BRIC  emerging  complexity  incomplete  information 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &! youtu.be/SZe3issLIb8
Raghuram  Rajan  BIS  centralbanks  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  excess  reserves  speculative  bubbles  reflate  reflation  economic  history  faultlines  credit  bubble  BRIC  2015  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  secular  stagnation  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  globalization  globalisation  financial  market  zombie  banks  savings  glut  business  confidence  business  investment  USA  UK  Europe  China  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  speculative  speculation  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  ECB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  deflationary  deflation  fiscal  policy  irrational  exuberance  panic  hubris  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Taper  book  structural  imbalance  Impediments  reserve  currency  fiat  currency  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  fiscal  deficit  fiscal  stimulus  Germany  austerity  dogma  ideology  credibility  Career  Politicians  Pact  Schuldenbremse  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  complexity  incomplete  information  shadow  banking  uncertainty  volatility  distortion  financial  repression  governance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Austerity Now: Brazil's Downgrade and Reckoning - Bloomberg View
Brazil faces its deepest recession in 25 years, policy drift and now a reputation deficit that threaten to undo years of prosperity and social gains. [...] even years on, with the economy set to shrink by two percent this year, and unemployment and consumer debt spiking, Brazil looks more likely cast as the leader of submerging markets and the sick man of the BRICS, the club of outsize developing nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- once touted to lead world growth.
liberal  economic  reform  economic  reform  BRIC  credit  bubble  2015  Brazil  China  India  Russia  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  centralbanks  BIS  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  global  trade  global  economy  GFC  recovery  PBOC  economic  history  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  liquidity  trap  2008  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  Carry  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  commodity  prices  South  Africa  democracy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  bribery  corruption 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Exposing The Lie Behind The "Strong Jobs Recovery" In One Chart | Zero Hedge
This data shows that the so-called jobs recovery has been spearheaded by cheap labor, with job gains going disproportionately to the least educated — and lowest-paid — workers. This is scarcely a good basis for resilient consumer spending driven by “solid” job growth that the consensus – including the Fed – is banking on. // bit.ly/1IN2i8f - But the E/P (Employment/Population) ratio for high school or college graduates – i.e., eight out of nine American adults – has not recovered any of its recessionary losses, and stands about where it started, one, two and three years ago (purple line).
recovery  UK  USA  Service  Sector  Jobs  manual  labour  job  creation  job  market  labour  market  2015  Taper  underemployed  part-time  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  minimum  wage  poverty  trap  Sozialer  Abstieg  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  GFC  dot.com  reflate  reflation  Fed  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  fiscal  policy  austerity  social  mobility  income  mobility  Gini  coefficient  added  value  value  creation  Multiplier  economic  history  globalization  globalisation  academia  academics  Fed  mandate  Janet  Yellen  Ben  Bernanke  Niedriglohnsektor  wage  stagnation  wage  growth 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
ABN Amro Warns There Is A 40% Chance Mario Draghi Expands ECB QE "As Soon As This Week" | Zero Hedge
The bottom line is that markets may fear that QT has much more to go." Deutsche was kind enough to provide a silver lining to this otherwise dreary forecast: "What could turn sentiment more positive? The first is other central banks coming in to fill the gap that the PBoC is leaving. China’s QT would need to be replaced by higher QE elsewhere, with the ECB and BoJ being the most notable candidates." [... or the shadowy actor Belgium - bit.ly/1LWtQQ9 &! bit.ly/1Ib2oNo - might have been a smoke mirror of the PBOC using "Euroclear", but the rabbit is out of the hat now! ] //&! bloom.bg/1JBiywV - Welcome to Quantitative Tightening as $12 Trillion Reserves Fall. The great global monetary tightening of 2015 is under way, but it’s not being led by the Federal Reserve.
QT  Quantitative  Tightening  Taper  QE  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  2015  China  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  reserve  currency  petrodollar  PBOC  centralbanks  reserves  FX  reserves  Treasury  Market  treasuries  bond  bubble  reflate  reflation  distortion  economic  history  global  trade  global  growth  global  economy  OPEC  Russia 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The "Great Accumulation" Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World's Central Banks Has Arrived | Zero Hedge
PBoC’s rapid liquidation of USTs over the past two weeks has added fuel to the fire and effectively boxed the Fed in. On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank is out extending their "quantitative tightening" (QT) analysis with a look at whats ahead now that the so-called "Great Accumulation" is over.  "Following two decades of unremitting growth, we expect global central bank reserves to at best stabilize but more likely to continue to decline in coming years," [...] Less reserve accumulation should put secular upward pressure on both global fixed income yields & USD. [If the shadow actor in Belgium doesnt buy it up @rate everyone else is selling (divesting) ] [...] The current secular shift in reserve manager behaviour represents the equivalent to Quantitative Tightening, or QT. This force is likely to be a persistent headwind towards developed market central banks’ exit from unconventional policy in coming years, representing an additional source of uncertainty in the global economy. ...
bond  bubble  treasuries  Treasury  Market  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  China  FX  reserves  centralbanks  reserves  USD  Dollar  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  petrodollar  2015  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  global  growth  faultlines  OPEC  Oil  price  Asia  emerging  PBOC  Russia  shale  gas  fracking  tarsand  Canada  USA  Taper  Fed  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  monetary  system  financial  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Saudi  Arabia  UAE  Iran  commodity  prices  Quantitative  Tightening  QT  2016  New  Normal  uncertainty  BOE  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar | Zero Hedge
What might not be as clear (on the surface anyway) is how recent events in developing economy FX markets following the devaluation of the yuan stem from a seismic shift we began discussing late last year - namely, the death of the petrodollar system which has served to underwrite decades of dollar dominance and was, until recently, a fixture of the post-war global economic order. In short, the world seems to have underestimated how structurally important collapsing crude prices are to global finance. For years, producers funnelled their dollar proceeds into USD assets providing a perpetual source of liquidity, boosting the financial strength of the reserve currency, leading to even higher asset prices and even more USD-denominated purchases, and so forth, in a virtuous loop. [...] For the first time in decades, exported petrodollar capital turned negative. [...] the world is now beginning to feel the impact of the petrodollar's quiet demise. // &! Follow-on! bit.ly/1IGh4O3
petrodollar  OPEC  centralbanks  reserves  USD  Dollar  2015  Oil  price  FX  reserves  China  Asia  emerging  market  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  PBOC  Russia  shale  gas  fracking  tarsand  Canada  USA  Taper  Fed  credit  bubble  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  monetary  system  financial  market  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Saudi  Arabia  UAE  Iran  commodity  prices  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  treasuries  Treasury  bond  bubble  faultlines  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Forget China - Oil Price Is Main Driver Of Market Turmoil | Zero Hedge
For the moment we are expecting oil producers to start to minimize their loses by producing even more oil. The oil crisis has just begun. // // &! DeMark compares China to the start of the Great Depression in the US, and when applying the 38.2 Fib retracement levels which have been breached, now expects even more pain for Chinese stocks - bit.ly/1NJdISb // // &! THINGS WERE TOO FAR AWAY FROM REALITY - Many indicators confirm that last week was remarkable and historic. Record after record was set, including the largest daily move, the biggest intra-day reversal and the most harrowing intra-day air pocket. - bv.ms/1O45W2i - legitimate questions about the robustness of the global economy [ contagion & overshoot - hubris and panic alike, good news gets washed down w bad news, extreme volatility still break markets, contagion still real & ppl are leveraged again (were complacent, institutional! investors!) ] market craziness. [ irrational exuberance that were equities ]. &! bv.ms/1UnLeMV
Oil  price  energy  price  OPEC  2015  China  commodities  global  trade  global  economy  western  world  developed  world  BRIC  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  PBOC  economic  slowdown  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  Fed  BOE  BOJ  ECB  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  economic  history  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  contagion  VIX  volatility  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  margin  trading  deleveraging  Greed  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  hubris  panic  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  irrational  exuberance  economic  growth  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  zombie  banks  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  recovery  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  economic  damage 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
El-Erian: This Is Not 1998 or 2008 - YouTube
it is a repricing. a correction. prices got too far away (reflation of equity & co through ZIRP, NIRP, QE, speeches, plus hunt for yield & FOMO). It just happened to be China being the trigger, the wake-up call - very loud wake-up call - bc of its economic size and heft. (taper talks 2015 that made equity already nervous, and bond holders too, was too timid). Reality check. // Was it justified, yes. // In the long-run, we are all dead. And in the long-run things will, eventually, correct itself. // People may take now into account a new normal, lower interest rate environment, lower global growth, lower yields, lower inflationary pressures, lower dividend payments, more work that corporates (crony capitalism) need to do to squeeze out that earnings growth especially in the western world. inequality - low wage growth/stagnation - less discretionary spending on non-essential items (in the western world). & "realization that policy tools were less effective". &! bv.ms/1NFsFUn
reflate  reflation  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  secular  stagnation  New  Normal  asset  bubble  bubble  bond  bubble  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  recovery  UK  USA  Europe  dogma  ideology  austerity  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  Richard  Koo  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  savings  rate  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  participation  rate  unemployment  imbalance  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  STEM  industrial  policy  Manufacturing  competitiveness  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  commodity  business  commoditization  borderless  deflationary  deflation  Software  Is  Eating  The  Marketplace  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  mobile  first  Smartphone  Revolution  2.0  energy  price  Oil  price  inflation  expectation  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  productive  investment  IMF  OECD  developed  world  emerging  emerging  growth  investment  midd 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Yellen sees growing confidence in US - BBC News
'we will raise rates as economy can take it.' meaning if economy can't take it and a bubble is staring you in the face, they won't use rates (or even any other monetary policy tool), lets not even start on macroprudential policy under the current state of Congress ... to reign in an obvious bubble. Richard Koo argues, western world still in balance sheet recession. and shiller argues we are at risk to suffer another financial crisis and we have no tool left to fight a downward drag, to quote BIS // The chair of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, has suggested there's growing confidence in the US economy. And after more than six years of near-zero interest rates - it seems a rate rise is likely sometime this year. But facing Congress, the Fed chair faced some tough questions from politicians wondering why the increase was taking so long. // &! youtu.be/zn5zt1XzX6g - Fed Chair Janet Yellen's Testimony in Two Minutes
Taper  Fed  2015  2016  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  macroprudential  policy  monetary  policy  GFC  dot.com  irrational  exuberance  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  debtoverhang  consumer  debt  credit  card  household  debt  private  debt  BIS  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  monetary  stimulus  bond  bubble  China  equity  bubble  global  economy  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Mark Carney indicates that interest rates may rise this year - BBC News
>> uk is as USA, consumer dependent // bbc.in/1M8GM3L - 2% in two years - inflation targeting, slack in economy drag on rising cost, ... // looks forward how inflation looks at the turn of the year! as commodity price drop gets out of calculation y/y. // &! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33560035
UK  BOE  2015  Taper  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Mark  Carney  monetary  policy  mortgage  market  property  bubble  housing  market  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  deleveraging  recovery  economic  history  GFC  Richard  Koo  BIS  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  savings  rate  credit  card  consumer  debt  household  debt  private  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  austerity  fiscal  policy  secular  stagnation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  inflation  targeting  output  gap  productivity  2016 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Robert J. Shiller: "Are We Headed for Another Financial Crisis?" (final edition, as of MAR 8) - YouTube
3rd ed adds bond market. where richard koo explains bond prices are a symptom of the balance sheet recession as is "deflationary." // liquidity trap // predicting turning points is bad business - highlighting fundy skew is easy. // equity bubble BURST? no. bond bubble BURST? no. how abt unreasonable higher interest rates for businesses bc of Taper from Fed long dated bonds into illiquid market. like Koo argues as possibility, which would depress gdp growth further bc of higher capital cost than the economy fundy actually would demand. contributing 2 the secular stagnation. // Other case: Crash of China (too much of a good thing, irrational exuberance) & Western Central Banks have no means 2 ease further & Career Politicians have no guts 2 actually pull out the guns for once 4 intelligent fiscal stimulus w a long-term view (no white elephants & bridges 2 nowhere). // 19:30 status anxiety, Sozialer Abstieg, everyone for himself, austerity, inequality, Software, etc = secular stagnation
Robert  Shiller  financialcrisis  GFC  economic  history  book  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  psychology  confidence  irrational  exuberance  animal  spirit  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ideology  dogma  economic  model  financial  crisis  housing  market  UK  USA  China  Japan  Richard  Koo  deflationary  hunt  for  yield  sustainable  sustainability  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  deflation  secular  stagnation  negative  real  interest  rate  Taper  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  policy  stimulus  crony  capitalism  mainstreet.org  mainstreet  Wall  Street  exploitation  uncertainty  deleveraging  savings  rate  business  investment  Sozialer  Abstieg  inequality  income  inequality  tax  code  capital  gains  fairness  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  public  investment  productive  investment  personal  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  socioeconomic  status  status  anxiety  social  status  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Gesellschaft  solidarity  society  soziologie  sociology  worry  squeezed  middle  class  precariou 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube
// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?
BIS  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  bond  bubble  Student  Loan  debt  debt  regulation  oversight  governance  BOE  simplicity  incomplete  information  academia  academics  economist  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  economic  history  systemicrisk  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  financial  market  sustainable  sustainability  mortgage  market  UK  USA  China  speculative  speculation  contagion  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  credit  boom  financial  cycle  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  political  economy  political  theory  centralbanks  economic  damage  economic  model  Richard  Koo  animal  spirit  austerity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  robertshiller  Robert  Shiller  ideology  dogma  sovereign  debt  crisis  populism  corporate  state  manufactured  consent  Lügenpresse  BOJ  Fed  currency  war  currency  debasement  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  Japan  hunt  for  yield  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
David Stockman: Central Banks Setting Up World for Bad Time - YouTube
"monetary madness" - repeat phrase of we aim for 2% inflation, that is why we do it. // BIS warned recently in its yearly paper - that Central Banks are unable to combat any global crisis flare-up that is more likely to be worse than GFC ... could be China of all things. // 2000 bust was fought with fed easing and throwing money at it, and GFC too. Next crisis - throwing money at it and easing will not be possible. // &! Deflation Comes First, Then Inflation - Mike Maloney - youtu.be/vAFtlgJNMCo // &! "One Bet, that is Big Enough, (that maybe was even conventional wisdom that it is save and THE BET) when wrong, does put you in a deep deep hole - youtu.be/tp9UjhZz-eo --- Nassim Taleb. There are lots of candidates/things that could blow up in peoples faces. &! Nouriel Roubini: Deflation Needs Monetary, Fiscal Policy - youtu.be/IADncoxQRYg
BIS  deflationary  deflation  financial  repression  BOE  Fed  ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Abenomics  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  inflation  expectation  inflation  currency  war  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  austerity  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  economic  history  IMF  currency  debasement  inflation  targeting  disinflation  hyperinflation  dis-inflation  deleveraging  leverage  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  dot.com  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  fiat  money  trust  trustagent  Nassim  Taleb  Black  Swan  Greece 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
James Rickards - The Death of Money - 04-30-15 - YouTube
distribution of risk (bell curve, wrong) & talebs black swan! / 'dismal science alone doesn't do the world and people justice.' / IMF is the central bank of the world (funded, special drawing right - SDR; out of thin air - backed by national central banks as reference (basket) but not backed by anything. printed money.) / Hungary's crisis - people borrowing in Swiss Franc ... SDR marry go round paying someone off with the help of IMF ... / IMF is transparent non-transparent. Try reading it. Need to be an expert. / AIIB able to issue bonds and got billions in capital - China/Asia Development Bank. Everybody joined because they want those contracts for their local/national companies ... except USA. Asia (China led) World Bank equivalent. - bit.ly/1Mxz1Dp &! bit.ly/1x04SZv / China wants to be in IMF & be part of basket of SDR / China may back its currency with Gold eventually once theyve got enough & leverage then its position. / US wants Yuan to be pegged to $ / m44 debt sustainability
economic  model  book  economic  history  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  academia  academics  science  sociology  psychology  discounted  risk  risk  discount  complexity  distributed  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  dogma  ideology  centralbanks  Fed  technocrat  IMF  World  Bank  Troika  bailout  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  austerity  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  currency  war  currency-war  currency  debasement  SDR  Special  Drawing  Right  AIIB  inflation  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  systemicrisk  counterpartyrisk  leverage  zombie  banks  Wall  Street  financial  repression  financial  literacy 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The world is defenceless against the next financial crisis, warns BIS - Telegraph
Monetary policymakers have run out of room to fight the next crisis with interest rates unable to go lower, the BIS warns. [...] These low interest rates have in turn fuelled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with even lower rates. [greenspan put][dot.com and GFC were in part fuelled by inadequate rate setting and oversight] [...] [BIS also rejecting the notion of secular stagnation]. // &! BIS 'low rates hold back global growth' - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/12ded5aa-1be6-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996 // &! Rising interest rates pose new risk for banks: BIS - reut.rs/1Jgyft9 [...] but a "normalization" of borrowing costs would reverse the debt-fueled inflation of asset prices and hit banks' own loss-absorbing equity capital, the BIS said. "Just as falling yields have supported asset valuation gains in recent years, an eventual normalization would generate losses ... Banks' equity capital would shrink."
BIS  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  Financial  Crisis  business  cycle  economic  cycle  economic  history  centralbanks  Fed  Taper  ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  BOE  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  zombie  banks  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  bailout  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  fractional  reserve  banking  dot.com  GFC  recovery  Greenspan-Put  alangreenspan  Great  Moderation  Ben  Bernanke  Fed  mandate  Bank  Oversight  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  zombie  consumer  structural  imbalance  Impediments  output  gap  productivity  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  secular  stagnation  asset  allocation  distortion  capital  allocation  asset  bubble  job  creation  labour  market  labour  economics  Niedriglohnsektor  Niedriglohn  Service  Sector  Jobs  lost  generation  lost  decade  policy  folly  policy  error  demographic  bubble  sovereign  debt  debt  bubble  consumer  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  growth  economic  damage  structural  unemployment  underemployed  supply  side  economics  microeconomic  policy  vocational  education  education  policy  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  Silicon  Valley  industrial  policy  ideology  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
ECB 'to end Greek bank lifeline' - BBC News
bloom.bg/1yMeCBS reut.rs/1Kin1FN bit.ly/1QWRUoF - Emergency Liquidity Facility (ELA) // ECB is expected to end emergency lending to Greece's banks on Sunday [...] have to "announce a bank holiday on Monday, pending introduction of capital controls". [B]ailout for heavily indebted Greece expires on Tuesday & talks have broken down. [...] "Grexit" from the euro is not inevitable, as the eurozone did resolve Cyprus's banking crisis in 2013 & the country stayed in the euro. [...] [Biggest part is EFSF debt. EU gov money (FR&GER biggest contributors) // Jens Weidmann - on.wsj.com/1KmPprP would have cut it earlier. Current tally €89 billion. // &! econ.st/1Kiugz1 - ECB could bully/force Greece/Syriza to accept any deal given or it will cut of ELA. It did so with Cyprus & Ireland. FT called it 'the quiet enforcer.' // In the End, IMF & EFSF paid off (mostly EU) bank loans for Greece. Not to fill Greece's budget deficit. = Backdoor National Bank Bailout!!! &! bbc.in/1ICV0EA
ECB  ELA  Grexit  2015  bank  run  bankrun  Troika  IMF  capital-flight  capital-controls  capital  controls  Cyprus  of  Cyprus  of  Greece  deposit  haircut  haircut  sovereign  debt  crisis  Great  Depression  austerity  fiscal  sovereignty  Syriza  democracy  Career  Politicians  European  Union  No  Representation  Angela  Merkel  MarioDraghi  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Germany  Leadership  Jens  Weidmann  zombie  banks  banking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  stresstest  EFSF  bank  bailout  GFC  PIGS  IMG  ChristineLagarde  PR  public  relations  spin  doctor  media  conglomerate  manufactured  consent  banking  crisis  economic  history  fairness  public  perception  public  awareness  public  discourse  policy  folly  policy  error  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  capitalism  Failure  recovery  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  deflationary 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Eurozone still in denial about Greece - BBC News
In the highly unlikely event that Greece could generate a 2% or 3% surplus year-in and year-out without its economy shrinking further (which few economists would anticipate), it would take around half a century for Greek public sector debt to fall to a level regarded as sustainable. A half century of austerity? In what modern democracy would that be regarded as a realistic option? So all these fraught talks about a release of the last 7.2bn of cash from the current rescue facility can probably be seen as displacement activity. And if there is agreement in the next day or so on a framework to release that cash, this should be seen as no more than a short-term temporary fix. [...] Or to put it another way, it is all about whether the IMF and eurozone can keep up the pretence that Greece is a sound and solvent debtor. [...] relatively small and weak private sector will ever have the capacity to pay it back.
Grexit  economic  history  PIGS  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  Europe  bailout  zombie  banks  Troika  IMF  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Germany  bank  jog  bank  run  ECB  European  Union  banking  solvency  insolvency  insolvent  Insolvenzverschleppung  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Greece  debt  jubilee  haircut  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  debt  restructuring  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Great  Depression  2015  lost  decade  lost  generation  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  GFC  GoldmanSachs 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
The Ashcroft Interviews: Money, Blood & Revolution - YouTube
George Cooper - broken economics << is in crisis. is not offering useful guidance for policy makers because of so much conflicting views that are taken at time and voiced at times very violently. "economics is akin to astrology." ... QE will create bigger future recession. &! neoclassical = trickle-down/trickle-through &! economics teaches you a wrong view / looking glass &! neoclassical view - getting richer and richer. is that really true? &! maintaining status quo &! self-interest &! Marx says capitalism is polarising
book  economics  economist  GFC  academia  academics  centralbanks  equilibrium  disequilibrium  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  debt  overhang  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  inequality  social  cohesion  trickle-down  economics  liquidity  trap  Philosophy  LTRO  TLTRO  education  policy  social  mobility  income  mobility  fairness  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  downward  mobility  social  safety  net  austerity  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  Super  Rich  1%  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism 
march 2015 by asterisk2a
Münchau über Quantitative Easing: Wann Anleihenkäufe helfen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Begründung für ein QE-Programm ist nicht eine etwaige Deflation, sondern die Entkoppelung der Inflationserwartungen. Das ist etwas völlig anderes. Wie viele andere Zentralbanken verfolgt auch die Europäische Zentralbank ein Inflationsziel, in unserem Fall von knapp unter zwei Prozent. Alle Indikatoren zeigen, dass die Inflationserwartungen 2014 deutlich nach unten gerutscht sind und nicht mehr bei zwei Prozent liegen. Das Ziel ist also die Rückführung der in der Bevölkerung erwarteten Inflation auf die EZB-Zielmarke von knapp zwei Prozent. Kann ein QE-Programm so etwas überhaupt leisten? Es gibt gute Argumente dafür und dagegen. // lots of headwind in europe and the world; against the hope that banks lend more money to companies and consumers ...
QE  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  deflation  deflationary  Europe  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  inflation  2015  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  system  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  zombi  banks 
january 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB unveils massive QE boost for eurozone
The European Central Bank (ECB) says it will inject at least €1.1 trillion into the ailing eurozone economy. The ECB will buy bonds worth €60bn per month until the end of September 2016 and possibly longer, in what is known as quantitative easing (QE). The ECB has also said eurozone interest rates are being held at the record low of 0.05%, where they have been since September 2014. ECB president Mario Draghi said the programme would begin in March. The eurozone is flagging and the ECB is seeking ways to stimulate spending. Mr Draghi said the programme would be conducted "until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation", which the ECB has pledged to maintain at close to 2%. + bit.ly/1GCvd40 &! bit.ly/1Ci5DgR &! bit.ly/1unR0lf &! bit.ly/1JnpsDm
ECB  QE  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  deflation  deflationary  recovery  Europe  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  GFC  deleveraging  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  Grexit  consumer  debt  private  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  household  debt  debt  restructuring  haircut  public  debt  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  fiat  currency  fiat  money  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  Japan  economic  history  global  economy  2015  faultlines  PIGS  output  gap  productivity  Euro  currency  war  NIRP  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  exit  strategy  MarioDraghi  Wall  Street 
january 2015 by asterisk2a
EZB: Draghi kündigt Aufkaufprogramm für Kredite an - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Mit dem Plan reagiert Draghi auf die schwache Wirtschaftslage in der Eurozone. Länder wie Italien, Spanien oder Griechenland kommen - wenn überhaupt - nur sehr langsam aus der Krise. Die dortigen Banken vergeben seit Jahren immer weniger Kredite. Und selbst in großen Ländern wie Frankreich und Deutschland stagnierte die Wirtschaftsleistung zuletzt. Ausdruck findet das auch in der Inflationsstatistik: Die Verbraucherpreise in der Eurozone steigen kaum noch - im September lag die jährliche Teuerungsrate gerade mal noch bei 0,3 Prozent. Um die Wirtschaft in Schwung zu halten, sollen die Preise nach Vorstellungen der EZB aber eher um knapp zwei Prozent pro Jahr steigen. Deshalb versuchen Draghi und seine Kollegen seit Monaten, die Kreditvergabe der Banken zu steigern, um so Wirtschaftswachstum und Preisentwicklung anzutreiben.
ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ABS  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  business  investment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  inflation  expectation  Europe  PIGS  NPL  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  IMF  France  Germany  trade  balance  2014  recovery  GFC  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  stagnation  Structural  Impediments  infrastructure  investment  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  inflation  fiscal  policy  Pact  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  distortion  unintended  consequences  complexity  asset  bubble 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Not that negative after all - YouTube
- nbdy is taking up the money to invest in his business (increase capacity, R&D, etc etc), becs there is no demand ... what is holding up the western world is the service economy - especially in UK and USA! - and then there is one particular structural impediment in Germany et al, demographic bubble.
monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  TLTRO  OMT  ABS  LTRO  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  trust  trustagent  confidence  creditcrunch  economic  history  Europe  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  deficit  imbalance  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  PIGS  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  Exportweltmeister  Germany  BuBa  austerity  IMF  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  zombie  banks  distortion  business  business  confidence  BRIC  MINT  USA  UK  MarioDraghi  Demand  Shock  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  industrial  policy  manufacturing  Services  Industry  service  economy  service  recovery  GFC  2014  consumer  confidence  output  gap  productivity 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
ESM: Kreditprogramm ausgereizt - Nachfrage fehlt im Euro-Raum - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Bankenrettungsschirm ESM soll jetzt helfen, Unternehmen mit Krediten zu versorgen. Ein Vorschlag von beeindruckender Mutlosigkeit. Wesentlich wirksamer wäre es, das Geld per Hubschrauber über der Eurozone abzuwerfen. [...] Wäre es nicht besser, sich zunächst einmal zu fragen, welches Problem wir hier eigentlich lösen wollen? Ist Liquidität wirklich das Problem? Wohl kaum. Die Europäische Zentralbank legt dauernd neue Liquiditätsprogramme für den Bankensektor auf. Und was passiert? Die Banken wollen das Geld nicht und zahlen lieber die alten Kredite schnell zurück. Wenn Liquidität nicht mehr das Problem ist, wie soll dann ein Kreditprogramm helfen? [...] Firmen wollen keine Kredite, sie wollen Aufträge +!+!+!+ http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/18/ecbs-tltro-program-analysts-roundup/ +!+!+!+ ZIRP also never arrive for businesses.
ESM  TLTRO  LTRO  ABS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ECB  fiscal  policy  Pact  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  Europe  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Germany  zombie  banks  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  financial  repression  liquidity  trap  lost  decade  lost  generation  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  recovery  greatrecession  BRIC  MINT  Exportweltmeister  USA  UK  flat  world  secular  stagnation  stagnation  stagflation  economic  history  austerity  IMF  Richard  Koo  globalization  globalisation  uncertainty 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
David Blanchflower: Do not be fooled – growth and living standards under the Coalition have still been abysmal - David Blanchflower - Business Comment - The Independent
Over the entire six-year period [ 2009 - 2013] real earnings in the UK fell by 6.5 per cent, and by 5.9 per cent between 2010 and 2012, and only Greece (minus 23 per cent) was lower. Real earnings growth was positive over this entire period in France (+5 per cent); Germany (+4 per cent); Japan (+1 per cent) and the US (+1 per cent).
greatrecession  UK  GFC  output  gap  productivity  stagflation  secular  stagnation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  monetary  transmission  mechanism  property  bubble  indusrty  London  finance  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  lost  decade  lost  generation  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  No  Representation  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  living  standard  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  class  warfare  Toff  private  education  OECD  BOE  unconventional  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  education  policy  Public  economies  of  agglomeration  economic  history  Mark  Carney 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Wirtschaftskrise: Deutsche Wirtschaft mit starkem Export ist anfällig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Typischerweise produzieren dominante ökonomische Narrative zuerst Illusionen und dann große Probleme. Wo eine Geschichte von Marktteilnehmern, Regulierern und Beobachtern vorbehaltlos akzeptiert wird, ist der Boden bereitet für Irrtümer, die uns am Ende Kopf und Kragen kosten können, wie ich meinem neuen Buch argumentiere. >> Die Politik des billigen Geldes verzerrt die Wirtschaftsstrukturen .... - die deutsche Wirtschaft unterfinanziert & Dass die Politik des ultrabilligen Geldes die Wirtschaftsstrukturen verzerrt, auch hierzulande. [CreditCrunch/transmission mechanism broken/hunt for yield/betongold/no-investments] +++ die Digitalisierung auch die produktionslastige deutsche Wirtschaft fundamental durcheinanderwirbeln wird. [Year of Code/Education Policy/Human Capital - high ed imigrants/Mobile Creatives/Share Economy] +++ Spiegel 37/2014 "Deutschland der Scheinriese" Cover Story
GFC  bubble  property  bubble  bubbles  economic  history  economics  society  storytelling  narrative  journalism  journalismus  PIGS  UK  USA  Germany  Exportweltmeister  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  exports  export  Europe  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  competitiveness  competitive  competitive  advantage  comparative  advantage  2014  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Policy  Makers  error  folly  trust  trustagent  confidence  accountability  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  monetary  fiscal  LTRO  OMT  ABS  unconventional  monetary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  distortion  Wall  Street  centralbanks  IMF  IBS  liquidity  trap  creditcrunch  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  blackswan  Black  Swan  Betongold  Beton  Gold  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  Year  of  Code  education  Public  Policy  hunt  for  yield  human  capital  immigration  demographics  demographic  bubble  demography 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB cuts rates and launches stimulus programme
1-Day Before: http://youtu.be/_6D_xVeoIXs "ECB faces crunch on deflation threat" +++ The ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05%, and introduced new stimulus measures. The ECB had earlier cut its rate from 0.25% to 0.15% in June, and also became the first major central bank to introduce negative interest rates. It will also launch an asset purchase programme, which will buy debt products from banks. It is hoped this move will add liquidity to the financial system and revive lending. [...] "[A] last roll of the dice". "The ECB has now almost exhausted its ammunition for preventing the Eurozone sliding into a devastating deflationary, contractionary spiral," +++ Analysis: http://youtu.be/IErml4SmKmE "European banks – Work those ABS" +++ bit.ly/1A6pmLU - France and Friends: Merkel Increasingly Isolated on Austerity "Europe ... is threatened with lasting weak growth should the deficit rules continue to be strictly interpreted. [ BuBa demands higher wages, ECB fiscal stimulus ]."
ABS  OMT  LTRO  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  PIGS  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  IMF  Germany  BuBa  deflation  deflationary  communication  zombie  banks  confidence  trustagent  trust  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  policy  QE  bond  bubble  deleveraging  lost  decade  lost  generation  SME  SMB  Mittelstand  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  economic  history  debtoverhang  NPL  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  riskaversion  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  secular  stagnation  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  Career  Politicians  inflation  expectation  stagnation  Betongold  Beton  Gold  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  France  liberal  economic  reform  Stability  Pact  Italy  academics  academia  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  wage  growth  wage  inflation  fiscal  stimulus  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Sick  Man  of  Europe  infrastructure  investment  investment  business  investment  labor  market  reform  recovery 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Konjunktur in EU: Analyse des ersten Halbjahrs 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In anderen Euroländern dagegen ist die Lage bedenklich. Vor allem Frankreich und Italien, die nach Deutschland größten Volkswirtschaften des Währungsraums, haben große strukturelle Probleme. Und in Krisenstaaten wie Griechenland, Spanien und Portugal geht es dank schmerzhafter Spar- und Reformprogramme zwar inzwischen wieder leicht bergauf mit der Wirtschaft. Doch die Gefahr eines Rückfalls in die Krise ist noch immer groß. || http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/eurostat-inflation-in-euro-laendern-sinkt-auf-rekordtief-a-986068.html - Neue Zahlen von der europäischen Statistikbehörde Eurostat: Die Inflation in den 18 Ländern im Euroraum ist so niedrig wie seit fast fünf Jahren nicht mehr. Das Wirtschaftswachstum kommt zum Stillstand. || + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/bip-deutsche-wirtschaft-schrumpft-um-0-2-prozent-a-986028.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/diw-chef-fratzscher-hoehere-loehne-und-konjunktur-a-986124.html "Investitionen!"
France  Germany  PIGS  Eurpope  sovereign  debt  crisis  2014  stagflation  secular  stagnation  stagnation  ECB  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  creditcrunch  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  economic  history  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  deficit  budget  deficit  liberal  economic  reform  NPL  zombie  banks  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  austerity  faultlines  divergence  Super  Cycle  lost  generation  lost  decade  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  hunt  for  yield  infrastructure  investment  investment  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  haircut  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  public  debt  productivity  output  gap  corporatism  crony  capitalism  coward  risk  sentiment  risk  taking  creditrating  creditrisk  working  poor  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  social  mobility  income  mobility  inequality 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Gefahr durch Niedrigzinsen - YouTube
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  Wall  Street  bond  bubble  PIGS  Fed  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  BOE  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  Europe  UK  USA  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  risk  taking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  creditrisk  hunt  for  yield  deflation  deflationary  secular  stagnation  2014  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  Betongold  Beton  Gold  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  property  bubble  Germany  monetization  monetisation  NPL  IBS  zombie  banks  recovery  greatrecession  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  faultlines  output  gap  productivity 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Is This What A Bursting Bubble Looks Like? - YouTube
- bear market, not a 2008/09 decline, more like a lost decade of little productivity growth and very very slow closing of the still existing output gap. - companies benefit form technological progress (accelerating); get more done with less people. +++ https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/posts/10154276062445062
asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  NIRP  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  Fed  ECB  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  2014  lost  decade  productivity  output  gap  G20  G  Zero  G8  Europe  USA  UK  complexity  unknown  unknowns  Taper  deflation  deflationary  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  middle  class  skill-biased  technological  change  technological  progress  knowledge  worker  knowledge  economy  economic  history  history  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  global  imbalances  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  debt  jubilee  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  default  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  signal  vs  noise  noise  dysfunctional  marketplace  efficiencies  market  dynamics  market  intervention  financial  market  market  failure  market-failure  lost  generation  lostdecade  lostgeneration  currency  debasement  fiat  currency  fiat  money 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Live chart: The low countries - YouTube
Timothy Geithner says no risk of U.S. losing it's AAA credit rating - http://youtu.be/0HDCvqgxrrE || Geithner: Japan's 'Lost Decade' Not America's Fate - http://youtu.be/fax8BIPKcP8 "the hope it's gonna heal itself, to hope you can grow yourself out of it" growing your way out of it" || +!!! Timothy Geithner Fired Robert Shiller? http://youtu.be/bIwBEYoSqKY >> economics has no humans in it !!! no real world example. Conventional wisdom so strong. "We've got too scientific." And anybody who is 'flaky' gets pushed out [Robert Schiller]. >>Wenn du dich auf andere verlaesst, bist du verlassen.<< || Robert Shiller: Speculative Asset Prices - http://youtu.be/oBXPOWytDMs "present value". google.co.uk/search?q=present+value+Robert+Schiller || + Robert Shiller: Nobel Prize Winning Economist - http://youtu.be/ABvtKGrIDUs "it can't be an exact science (forecasting) because of the complexity, mass data; uncertain, certain, and data that can't be put in numbers, storystelling -> feedback loops ...
bond  bubble  Japan  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  hunt  for  yield  lost  decade  lost  generation  deflation  deflationary  liquidity  trap  financial  repression  economic  history  Tim  Geithner  Timothy  Geithner  austerity  balance  sheet  recession  Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  creditrating  creditrisk  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  Super  Cycle  debt  jubilee  GFC  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  toobigtofail  TBTF  systemrelevanz  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  sovereignty  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  Thomas  Piketty  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  savings  glut  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  GDP  economic  model  Robert  Skidelsky  Robert  Reich  Paul  Krugman  consumer  debt  public  debt  debt  restructuring  household  debt  zombie  banks  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  BuBa  leadership  Democratic  Process  democracy  trust  trustagent  confidence  greatrecession  greatdepression  history  evolution  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  Software  Is  Eating  skill-biased  techn 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Zinsentscheid der EZB: Draghi plant Minus vor Zinssatz - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Schon immer ließ sich das Ende eines Systems besonders schwer erkennen, wenn man Teil des Systems ist. Im Jahre sieben nach Ausbruch der Finanzkrise ist es langsam Zeit für die Frage: Was, wenn die vermeintliche Ausnahme in Wahrheit die Regel ist? Wenn es sich bei der Kombination aus niedrigen Zinsen, niedrigem Wachstum und niedriger Inflation, die weite Teile Europa seit 2008 ebenso im Griff hält wie die USA und Japan, um die neue Normalität handelt? Wenn das seit Jahrzehnten praktizierte westliche Wirtschaftsmodell, sich immer niedrigere Wachstumsraten mit immer höheren Staatsschulden zu erkaufen, an seinem Schlusspunkt angelangt ist? +++ http://bit.ly/SxhnZq "Nicht Europa ist am Ende - sondern der Kapitalismus, so wie wir ihn kennen. [...] Im angelsächsischen Finanzkapitalismus wachsen die Vermögen der Reichen und stagnieren die Einkommen der anderen." [...] [EU Election Result is a vote] gegen das ungerechte Wirtschaftssystem, das ihre Lebensgrundlage gefährdet.
capitalism  in  crisis  Europe  Japan  USA  deflation  deflationary  UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  ECB  Fed  BOE  BOJ  GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  recovery  2014  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  NPL  non-performing  loan  economic  history  macroeconomic  policy  macroeconomics  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  financial  repression  New  Normal  lostdecade  lost  decade  lost  generation  crony  capitalism  corporatism  corporate  governance  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  Makers  history  fiat  currency  fiat  money  trust  trustagent  confidence  hunt  for  yield  Politics  Thomas  Piketty  book  Robert  Reich  Robert  Skidelsky  josephstiglitz  Joseph  Stiglitz  financial  capitalism  asset  bubble  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  1%  Super  Rich  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  coldprogression  kalte  Progression  Gini  coefficient  Democratic  Process  democracy  European  Council  Election  2014  European  Election  2014  skill-biased  technological  change  Blue-collar  Worker  knowledge  White-collar  Worker  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  disposable  income  tax  free  income  tax  code  tax  credit  taxation  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  ethics  social  social  m 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB senkt Leitzins und beschließt Minuszinsen für Banken - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat ihren Leitzins auf ein Rekordtief gesenkt und erstmals einen negativen Einlagensatz beschlossen. Angesichts der zuletzt sehr niedrigen Inflationsrate wird der Zins, zu dem sich die Geschäftsbanken bei der Notenbank Geld leihen können, um 0,10 Punkte auf 0,15 Prozent gesenkt, wie die EZB am Donnerstag nach ihrer Ratssitzung in Frankfurt mitteilte. Der Einlagensatz, zu dem Banken kurzfristig Geld bei der Notenbank parken können, wird erstmals in den negativen Bereich gedrückt. Er sinkt von bisher null Prozent auf minus 0,10 Prozent. Der Zins für kurzfristige Ausleihungen bei der Notenbank vermindert sich von 0,75 auf 0,40 Prozent. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-entscheidung-kredite-und-senkung-des-leitzins-a-973657.html ""Die Banken leiden nicht unter vermeintlich zu hohen Notenbankzinsen, sondern unter dem hohen Bestand fauler Kredite, an dem Negativzinsen nichts ändern." + !! http://youtu.be/kKO_yxP3dyQ !!
deflation  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  ECB  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  2014  ZIRP  OMT  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  deposit  levy  New  Normal  financial  repression  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  Europe  Germany  faultlines  recovery  policy  error  policy  folly  Makers  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  GFC  lost  decade  lost  generation  long-term  unemployment  banking  union  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  2015  NPL  non-performing  loan  economic  history  LTRO  assetbackedsecurities  Sterilization 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Dax knackt 10.000 Punkte: Rekord wegen billigen Gelds von EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Erstmals überspringt der Dax die Marke von 10.000 Punkten. Das beweist erneut, wie sehr der deutsche Leitindex vom billigen Geld der Notenbank abhängig ist - und wie schnell die gute Stimmung an der Börse vorbei sein kann. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/dax-steigt-ueber-10-000-punkte-auf-neuen-rekordstand-a-972849.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/geldanlage-bei-niedrigzinsen-gold-immobilien-einen-jaguar-a-973671.html ""Wohin also jetzt mit den Ersparnissen?"" +++ Spekulationsblasen: Wirtschaftsweiser warnt vor Gefahren der Niedrigzinsen - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ezb-wirtschaftsweiser-wieland-warnt-vor-spekulationsblasen-a-975400.html +++ Niedrigzinsen: Schäuble befürchtet Immobilienblase in Deutschland - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/zinsen-schaeuble-befuerchtet-immobilienblase-in-deutschland-a-976154.html
asset  bubble  Betongold  Beton  Gold  ZIRP  QE  OMT  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  asset  allocation  property  bubble  London  PIGS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity-trap  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  hunt  for  yield  New  Normal  financial  repression  2014  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  banking  union  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  macroprudential  policy  Politics  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  austerity  fiscal  policy  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  faultlines  imbalance  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  lost  decade  lost  generation  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  Wolfgang  Schäuble 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Bond Yields Lowest Since Napoleon Are No Comfort to Europe Amid Deflation Fight - Businessweek
Germany issued 5yr bond with a yield of .45%, last year same type of issue was arount the .3% mark. OUCH, way below inflation. - "" “The outright level of yields is suggesting an incredibly weak outlook for growth,” “It’s a powerful signal telling you policy is too tight and that there’s complacency toward the risks. Not a great deal has been solved. We’ve still got bank stress tests to come, too low growth and too low inflation.” ""
deflation  deflationary  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Super  Cycle  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  unemployment  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  OMT  QE  economic  history  recovery  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  2014  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  fiscal  policy  Career  Politicians  Politics  Germany 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Today's Good News From Japan Is Terrible - Bloomberg View
uroda is finding that his monetary largess isn't boosting credit creation as hoped. Inflation, yes, as Japan imports more energy with a weaker yen. But the kind of monetary multiplier effect the BOJ hoped to unleash by now remains elusive, as the experience of Mizuho Financial Group and Japan’s other two biggest banks demonstrate. All three are forecasting a drop in earnings for this year as loan growth loses momentum and returns from stock investments wane. Kuroda is a respected economist who's staked his entire legacy on ending Japan's deflation. What's more, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe isn't coming through with sweeping structural reforms to boost consumer demand and business confidence. However unfairly, that puts the onus on Kuroda. It also places Japan in uncharted territory. Will bond traders sit back passively if the BOJ adds lots more stimulus to the economy? It's impossible to tell. + http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/blog/abenomics-new-monetary-policy/
BOJ  QE  ZIRP  Japan  lostdecade  lost  decade  2014  deflationary  deflation  trust  trustagent  confidence  Kuroda  Put  Greenspan-Put  Greenspan  Put  economic  history  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  Nikkei  JPY  faultlines  global  imbalances  Fed  Taper  Janet  Yellen  Abenomics  Shinzo  Abe  fiscal  stimulus  accommodative  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  liquidity  trap 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Bundesbank Open to Significant ECB Stimulus in June if 2016 Inflation Forecasts Lowered - WSJ.com
BuBa  Bundesbank  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  PIGS  recovery  2014  ZIRP  OMT  negative  real  interest  rate  NIRP  monetary  stimulus  stimulus  economic  history  deflation  deflationary  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  long-term  unemployment  structural  imbalance  Impediments  structural  unemployment  Europe  Career  Politicians  IMF  MarioDraghi  participation  rate  productivity  Germany  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  structural  deficit  negative  deposit  rate  deposit  facility  overnight  deposit  facility 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
British austerity is no model for the rest of the world - FT.com
the pace of fiscal contraction has slowed over the past two years. This means that the brake on growth caused by fiscal policy is becoming more attenuated. So the turnround in growth over the past 18 months is as much evidence against austerity as it is pro-austerity. Second, faced with the potential damage caused by the deficit reduction to demand and economic growth, the UK government has been forced to introduce a number of extraordinary measures to support lending. [...] It certainly should not, however, be seen as any kind of inspiration to other companies or countries. + http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10807988/Rapid-rate-rises-could-throw-UK-back-into-recession.html
Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BOE  austerity  Mark  Carney  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  recovery  2014  GFC  zombie  consumer  Debt  Super  Cycle  private  sovereign  crisis  consumer  bubble  monetization  monetisation  QE  ZIRP  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  election  campaign  promises  general  election  2015  election2015  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  productivity  wage  stagnation  living  wage  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  financial  repression  New  Normal  structural  deficit  budget  deficit  jubilee  public  household  debtoverhang  liquidity-trap  economic  history  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  mortgage  market  housing  market  Supply  Supply  Shortfall  public  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  unconventional  monetary  policy  policy-makers  policy  makers  democracy  Politics  UK 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Amazingly, London’s property boom may still have years to run - Quartz
Housing shortage. ( Supply ) Period. + British unemployment fell to a five-year low - + mortage market may come under pressure when ZIRP ends and the zombie consumer can't server the rising interest payments.
UK  recovery  2014  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  QE  BOE  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  ZIRP  Mark  Carney  monetary  transmission  mechanism  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  mortgage  market  zombie  consumer  Consumerism  consumerist  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  austerity  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50
Billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total-Market-Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment. + Fed took this week extra meeting. for what, nobody knows - only speculations.
stockmarekt  WallStreet  warrenbuffet  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Fed  ZIRP  QE  BOE  ECB  OMT  NIRP  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unknowns  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  2014  GFC  economic  history 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Hedge Fund Boss: "We Are Witnessing Our Second Tech Bubble"
+ http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/27/magazine/if-a-bubble-bursts-in-palo-alto-does-it-make-a-sound.html "There are hundreds more examples of big companies spending eye-watering sums for acquisitions, firms going public at fat valuations, tech stocks reaching high highs and venture-capital firms tossing money at start-ups. That’s not to mention the cultural afterbirth of all that cash, from the medieval-themed weddings to the office ball pits. (If HBO sees fit to satirize your corner of the economy, things have probably gone a bit weird.) Meanwhile, the rest of the country slouches along, unemployment high, wages stagnant, credit tight. But Silicon Valley feels like a foam party." [...] “Valuations are at extreme levels because you cannot get a decent return on your money doing anything else,”
asset  bubble  Silicon  Valley  growth  round  late-stage  funding  Venture  Capital  Marc  Andreessen  IPO  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  QE  liquidity-trap  unintended  consequences  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  OMT  ECB  BOE  NIRP  deflationary  deflation  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  2014  Facebook  Airbnb  Dropbox  Box.com  California  San  Francisco  Los  Angeles  Palo  Alto  Fred  Wilson 
april 2014 by asterisk2a
Wie Europa Schulden loswerden kann - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[Rogoff & Reinhart advocating financial repression] [...] [Because Austerity didn't work.] Tatsächlich habe die europäische Wirtschaftspolitik - die Haushaltsdefizite senkt und Strukturreformen für mehr Wachstum durchführt - recht wenig getan, um den Schuldenberg wirklich zu verringern. Die Politik könnte die Last für die nächsten Jahre sogar verschlimmert haben, sagen viele Volkswirte. Die Sparpolitik hat das Wachstum überraschend stark beeinträchtigt. Während die Hinweise darauf, dass die Strukturreformen tatsächlich die Wirtschaft beflügeln, eher überschaubar ausfallen. Stattdessen sinken Einkommen, Gewinne und Steuereinnahmen, was die Schuldenlast immer schwerer erträglich macht.
debt  servicing  sovereign  debt  crisis  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  Europe  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  liquidity-trap  QE  KennethRogoff  liberal  economic  reform  economic  history  MarioDraghi  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  youth  unemployment  austerity  IMF  Japan  UK  USA  budget  deficit  France  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  New  Normal  PIMCO  Mohamed  El-Erian  debt  jubilee  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  private  debt  public  debt  household  debt  carmenreinhart  WallStreet  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  communication  babyboomers  haircut  PIGS  toobigtofail  TBTF  Richardkoo 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB: Mario Draghi und die Schuld an den niedrigen Zinsen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Manche nennen es Enteignung: Auch 2014 müssen sich viele deutsche Sparer mit Mini-Zinsen unterhalb der Inflationsrate begnügen. Schuld daran ist aus ihrer Sicht die Europäische Zentralbank. Deren Chef Mario Draghi wehrt sich - was taugen seine Argumente?
financial  repression  New  Normal  ZIRP  QE  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  complexity  unintended  consequences  asset  bubble  Europe  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Debt crisis will hurt millions, says think tank
Millions of UK households will face "perilous" levels of debt when interest rates begin to rise, according to a think tank focused on living standards. The number of people using more than half their disposable income to repay debt could rise from 600,000 to a 1.1 million by 2018 if interest rates rise to 3%, said the Resolution Foundation. If rates hit 5%, two million households would face huge repayments, it said. Mortgages are the largest source of UK household debt.
Debt  Super  Cycle  household  UK  private  consumer  mortage  property  bubble  housing  market  2013  ZIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  complexity  zombie  consumer  NPL  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  BOE  Mark  Carney  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  hunt  for  yield 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Die Gefahren des Jahres 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Beide Seiten haben Grund zu Pessimismus. Die strukturkonservative Bundeskanzlerin sieht mit Schrecken, dass Frankreich, Spanien und Italien keineswegs geneigt sind, deutsch zu werden. Euro-föderale Kritiker wie ich sind darüber enttäuscht, dass es weder eine Fiskalunion noch eine echte Bankenunion geben wird. Für uns ist das, was letzte Woche beschlossen wurde, keine Bankenunion, sondern nur ein schlechter Witz. Jedes Land bleibt für seinen eigenen Bankensektor verantwortlich. Das vorrangige ökonomische Ziel, die Risiken von Banken und Staaten zu trennen, ist dahin. Stattdessen ist die Bankenunion nur noch ein komplizierter administrativer Prozess.
Europe  europeanunion  banking  union  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  austerity  2013  2014  France  Spain  Italy  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  Japan  economic  history  history  Angela  Merkel  political  folly  political  error  FrancoisHollande  policy  error  policy  folly  ECB  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richardkoo  reflation  deflationary  deflation  inflation  ZIRP  QE  LTRO  unintended  consequences  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  unconventional  monetary  policy 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
EZB hält Leitzins auf historischem Tiefstand - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Trotz der niedrigen Zinsen kommt das billige Geld derzeit nicht bei Unternehmen und Haushalten an. Vor allem in Südeuropa ist die Kreditvergabe weiter rückläufig. Um das zu ändern, wird im EZB-Rat über den Einsatz unkonventioneller Instrumente nachgedacht. Dazu gehören zum Beispiel negative Zinsen für Einlagen der Banken der EZB, aber auch neue langfristige Finanzspritzen.
liquidity-trap  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  system  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  LTRO  OMT  negative  real  interest  rate  deflationary  deflation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  unintended  consequences  complexity  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  PIGS  recovery  austerity  liberal  economic  reform  trust  trustagent  confidence  policy  error  policy  folly  political  folly  political  error  economic  history  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  divergence  Super  Cycle  lostdecade  lostgeneration  stagflation  stagnation  secular  stagnation  Japan 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
Hugh Hendry Capitulates: "Can't Look At Himself In The Mirror" As He Throws In The Towel, Turns Bullish | Zero Hedge
First David Rosenberg, then Jeremy Grantham, and now Hugh Hendry: one after another the bears are throwing in the towel. As Investment Week reports, speaking at Harrington Cooper's 2013 conference this morning, Hugh Hendry said "he is no longer fighting the two-way feedback loop which is continuing to boost risk assets." The reflexive feedback loop envisioned by Hendry is the following and centres on the currency war being played out between the US and China, "in which US QE prompts dollar-denominated investment to head to China, and China fights the resulting upwards pressure on its currency by manufacturing an investment boom. Hendry said this creates a "global supply glut", leading to falling US inflation expectations (as this supply far outweights US domestic demand) - which in turn prompts the Federal Reserve to loosen policy once again." Rinse. Repeat. [... DONT FIGHT THE FED ...] [...] You have got to be in things that are trending.
HughHendry  supply-demand  savings  glut  supply  glut  QE  ZIRP  deflation  deflationary  reflation  inflation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  liquidity  liquidity-trap  WallStreet  asset  bubble  blackswan  fat  tail  Fed  GFC  Debt  Super  Cycle  trading  proptrading  hunt  for  yield  financial  repression  New  Normal 
november 2013 by asterisk2a
Banks Warn Fed They May Have To Start Charging Depositors | Zero Hedge
In other words, just like Europe is already toying with the idea of NIRP (and has been for over a year, if still mostly in the rheotrical and market rumor phase), so the Fed's IOER cut would also result in a negative rate on deposits which the FT tongue-in-cheekly summarizes "depositors already have to cope with near-zero interest rates, but paying just to leave money in the bank would be highly unusual and unwelcome for companies and households."
Fed  Taper  ECB  NIRP  ZIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  modern  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  UK  IOER  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  economic  history  balance  sheet  asset  bubble  complexity  2013 
november 2013 by asterisk2a
« earlier      
per page:    204080120160

related tags

1%  2.0  9flats  A  Abe  Abenomics  ABS  Abstieg  abundance  academia  academics  accommodative  account  accountability  added  advantage  affordable  Africa  ageing  agglomeration  aggregate  AIIB  Airbnb  alangreenspan  allocation  Alto  America  and  Andreessen  Angel  Angela  Angeles  animal  anxiety  Arabia  artificial  Asia  aspirational  asset  assetbackedsecurities  austerity  aversion  avoidance  awareness  B  babyboomers  badbank  baddebt  bail  bailout  balance  balancesheet  bank  banking  bankrun  bankruptcy  banks  behavioral  Ben  benbernanke  Bernanke  Beton  Betongold  big  BIS  Black  blackswan  Blue  Blue-collar  BOE  BOJ  bond  Bonds  book  boom  borderless  Box.com  Brazil  Brexit  bribery  BRIC  British  BuBa  bubble  bubbles  budget  budget2015  Bundesbank  burn  business  Bust  Buy  Buy-to-Let  buyback  California  call  Cameron  campaign  Canada  capital  capital-controls  capital-flight  capitalism  car  card  Career  carmenreinhart  Carney  Carry  cash  centralbank  centralbanks  change  Chartered  China  ChristineLagarde  civil  class  code  coefficient  cohesion  coldprogression  Commission  commodities  commoditization  commodity  communication  comparative  competition  competitive  competitiveness  complexity  confidence  conglomerate  consent  consequences  Conservative  constituency  Constitutional  consume  consumer  Consumerism  consumerist  contagion  contract  Contractor  controls  corporate  corporations  corporatism  correction  corruption  cost  Council  counterpartyrisk  courage  Court  coward  CPI  creation  creative  Creatives  credibility  credit  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  creditrating  creditrisk  crisis  crony  crunch  currency  currency-war  current  cycle  Cyprus  damage  David  davidcameron  debasement  debt  debtoverhang  decade  default  deficit  deflation  deflationary  deleveraging  demand  democracy  Democratic  demographic  demographics  demography  deposit  Depression  deregulation  derivatives  destruction  devaluation  developed  Developing  Devolution  differentiate  differentiation  direct  dis-inflation  discount  discounted  discourse  discretionary  disequilibrium  disinflation  disposable  distortion  distributed  distribution  distrust  divergence  doctor  dogma  Dollar  door  dot.com  downward  Drawing  Dropbox  dynamics  dysfunctional  Eating  ECB  economic  economics  economies  economist  economy  education  efficiencies  EFSF  El-Erian  ELA  election  election2015  emerging  employment  energy  entry  equilibrium  equity  error  escape  ESM  Establishment  ethics  Euro  Eurobond  Europe  European  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  europeanunion  Eurpope  evasion  evolution  excess  exit  expectation  exploitation  export  exports  Exportweltmeister  exposure  exuberance  Facebook  facility  failure  fairness  fanniemae  far-right  fat  faultlines  fear  Fed  Ferguson  fiat  finance  financial  financialcrisis  first  fiscal  fixed  flat  folly  FOMO  for  foreign  foreignexchange  forward  fracking  fractional  framing  France  Francisco  FrancoisHollande  fraud  Fred  freddiemac  free  Frontier  frothy  Fund  funding  Future  FX  G  G8  G20  gains  gap  gas  GDP  Geithner  general  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  George  GeorgeOsborne  German  Germany  Gesellschaft  GFC  Gini  global  globalisation  globalization  glut  Gold  GoldmanSachs  governance  Great  greatdepression  greatrecession  Greece  Greed  Greenspan  Greenspan-Put  Grexit  group  groups  growth  guidance  gwbush  haircut  happiness  hayek  headwinds  Hedge  Help  high  history  homeless  homelessness  homescreen  hot-money  Hour  household  housing  HSBC  hubris  HughHendry  human  hunt  hyperinflation  IBS  ideology  imbalance  imbalances  IMF  IMG  immigration  Impediments  in  incentive  income  income-growth  incomplete  Independence  index  India  indusrty  industrial  Industry  inequality  inflation  information  infrastructure  insolvency  insolvent  Insolvenzverschleppung  Integrationspolitik  interest  intervention  investment  investor  investors  IOER  IPO  Iran  irrational  Is  Italy  IWF  jail  Janet  Japan  Jens  JGB  job  Jobs  jog  JohnMaynardKeynes  Joseph  josephstiglitz  journalism  journalismus  JPY  jubilee  junk  JörgAsmussen  kalte  KennethRogoff  keynes  Keynesianism  knowledge  Koo  Krugman  Kuroda  labor  labour  language  late-stage  Latin  LBO  leadership  Leiharbeit  Lending  leverage  levy  liberal  liquidity  liquidity-trap  literacy  living  loan  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  London  long-term  Los  lost  lostdecade  lostgeneration  low  LTRO  Lunch  Lügenpresse  M3  macroeconomic  macroeconomics  macroprudential  mainstreet  mainstreet.org  makers  malinvestment  Man  mandate  manual  manufactured  manufacturing  Marc  marcandreessen  margin  marginal  MarioDraghi  Mark  market  market-failure  marketplace  Markets  Marktwirtschaft  maximisation  mechanism  media  Merkel  MervynKing  Micro  microeconomic  microeconomics  middle  migration  Millennials  miltonfriedman  minimum  MINT  Mittelstand  mobile  mobility  model  Moderation  modern  Mohamed  monetarism  monetary  monetisation  monetization  money  moneysupply  monopoly  morality  morals  mortage  mortgage  MPC  Multiplier  Mutual  narrative  Nassim  nasty  negative  neoliberal  neoliberalism  net  New  Niall  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  Nikkei  NIRP  No  noise  nominal  non-performing  Normal  NPL  OBR  Ocean  OECD  of  Oil  oligarchy  OMT  ope  OPEC  Osborne  output  output-gap  overcapacity  overhang  overnight  oversight  Pact  Palo  panic  part-time  participation  party  Paul  pay  payments  PBOC  perception  personal  petrodollar  Petroleum  Philosophy  phone  PIGS  PIIGS  PIIGSFB  Piketty  PIMCO  Plan  plutocracy  policy  policy-makers  political  Politicians  Politics  POMO  poor  population  populism  post-capitalism  Pound  poverty  PR  Precariat  precarious  price  prices  private  Privileged  Process  product  productive  productivity  profit  progress  Progression  promises  propensity  property  proptrading  psychology  public  Put  QE  QT  Quantitative  R&D  Raghuram  Rajan  rate  ratingagencies  ratings  RBA  real  rebalancing  Recapitalisation  Recapitalization  recession  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  recovery  redistribution  referendum  refinancing  reflate  reflation  reform  reframing  refugee  regulation  regulators  Reich  relations  rent  rent-seeking  rentier  Representation  repression  Research  reserve  reserves  restructuring  retail  retirement  Revolution  revolving  Rich  Richard  Richardkoo  Right  risk  riskaversion  RMB  Robert  robertshiller  round  run  runway  Russia  safety  San  Saudi  Save  savings  scarcity  scenario  Scheme  Schuldenbremse  Schäuble  science  Scottish  SDR  Sector  secular  security  Seed  self-employment  self-regulation  sentiment  service  Services  servicing  servitude  shadow  shale  share  shared  shareholder  sheet  Shiller  Shinzo  Shock  short-term  short-termism  Shortfall