asterisk2a + treasuries   20

ABN Amro Warns There Is A 40% Chance Mario Draghi Expands ECB QE "As Soon As This Week" | Zero Hedge
The bottom line is that markets may fear that QT has much more to go." Deutsche was kind enough to provide a silver lining to this otherwise dreary forecast: "What could turn sentiment more positive? The first is other central banks coming in to fill the gap that the PBoC is leaving. China’s QT would need to be replaced by higher QE elsewhere, with the ECB and BoJ being the most notable candidates." [... or the shadowy actor Belgium - bit.ly/1LWtQQ9 &! bit.ly/1Ib2oNo - might have been a smoke mirror of the PBOC using "Euroclear", but the rabbit is out of the hat now! ] //&! bloom.bg/1JBiywV - Welcome to Quantitative Tightening as $12 Trillion Reserves Fall. The great global monetary tightening of 2015 is under way, but it’s not being led by the Federal Reserve.
QT  Quantitative  Tightening  Taper  QE  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  2015  China  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  reserve  currency  petrodollar  PBOC  centralbanks  reserves  FX  reserves  Treasury  Market  treasuries  bond  bubble  reflate  reflation  distortion  economic  history  global  trade  global  growth  global  economy  OPEC  Russia 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The "Great Accumulation" Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World's Central Banks Has Arrived | Zero Hedge
PBoC’s rapid liquidation of USTs over the past two weeks has added fuel to the fire and effectively boxed the Fed in. On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank is out extending their "quantitative tightening" (QT) analysis with a look at whats ahead now that the so-called "Great Accumulation" is over.  "Following two decades of unremitting growth, we expect global central bank reserves to at best stabilize but more likely to continue to decline in coming years," [...] Less reserve accumulation should put secular upward pressure on both global fixed income yields & USD. [If the shadow actor in Belgium doesnt buy it up @rate everyone else is selling (divesting) ] [...] The current secular shift in reserve manager behaviour represents the equivalent to Quantitative Tightening, or QT. This force is likely to be a persistent headwind towards developed market central banks’ exit from unconventional policy in coming years, representing an additional source of uncertainty in the global economy. ...
bond  bubble  treasuries  Treasury  Market  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  China  FX  reserves  centralbanks  reserves  USD  Dollar  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  petrodollar  2015  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  global  growth  faultlines  OPEC  Oil  price  Asia  emerging  PBOC  Russia  shale  gas  fracking  tarsand  Canada  USA  Taper  Fed  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  monetary  system  financial  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Saudi  Arabia  UAE  Iran  commodity  prices  Quantitative  Tightening  QT  2016  New  Normal  uncertainty  BOE  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar | Zero Hedge
What might not be as clear (on the surface anyway) is how recent events in developing economy FX markets following the devaluation of the yuan stem from a seismic shift we began discussing late last year - namely, the death of the petrodollar system which has served to underwrite decades of dollar dominance and was, until recently, a fixture of the post-war global economic order. In short, the world seems to have underestimated how structurally important collapsing crude prices are to global finance. For years, producers funnelled their dollar proceeds into USD assets providing a perpetual source of liquidity, boosting the financial strength of the reserve currency, leading to even higher asset prices and even more USD-denominated purchases, and so forth, in a virtuous loop. [...] For the first time in decades, exported petrodollar capital turned negative. [...] the world is now beginning to feel the impact of the petrodollar's quiet demise. // &! Follow-on! bit.ly/1IGh4O3
petrodollar  OPEC  centralbanks  reserves  USD  Dollar  2015  Oil  price  FX  reserves  China  Asia  emerging  market  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  PBOC  Russia  shale  gas  fracking  tarsand  Canada  USA  Taper  Fed  credit  bubble  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  monetary  system  financial  market  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Saudi  Arabia  UAE  Iran  commodity  prices  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  treasuries  Treasury  bond  bubble  faultlines  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
James Rickards - 2016 Economic Collapse - YouTube
17:00 - Russia dumping Treasuries. China dumping Treasuries. Belgium (who?) buying them up!? zerohedge reported on that. Why Belgium? Belgium is a front - smoke mirror, smoking gun! // 19:00 petrodollar. Iran. // Financial War Fare (& Cyber War Fare.) // Global Stealth Gold Run as insurance scheme as end of dollar as reserve currency scenario (hedge). Zerohedge has shown that worlds central banks have pulled continuously their gold from NY Fed // 28:00 Fed monetary policy puts dollar status in peril according to IMF. Central banks started long ago to diversify their reserve holdings and reduce dollars for other holdings. //// &! See end of the petrodollar and what it means (bad for all USD denominated assets) - bit.ly/1hBuuWo AND See QT 2015/2016 - China and everyone else selling Treasuries and USD FX reserves because they have to = quantitative tightening. treasury prices up (higher yield). --- bit.ly/1IGh4O3
treasuries  Treasury  Market  USA  Fed  bond  bubble  2015  China  Russia  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  USD  globalization  globalisation  petrodollar  OPEC  QT  Quantitative  Tightening  emerging  book  Dollar  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
It's Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington | Zero Hedge
[ Richard Koo mentioned in a talk that Fed officials dont know abt extend/potential of upward pressure 4 long-dated bonds once Taper started & bond holdings have to be reduces - put on the market + this as a potential long-term trend! ] // we do have an idea of what foreign FX reserve liquidation means for USTs. "Suppose EM and developing countries, which hold $5491 bn in reserves, reduce holdings by 10% over one year - this amounts to 3.07% of US GDP and means 10yr Treasury yields rates rise by a mammoth 108bp ," Citi said, in a note dated earlier this week.  In other words, for every $500 billion in liquidated Chinese FX reserves, there's an attendant 108bps worth of upward pressure on the 10Y. Bear in mind here that thanks to the threat of a looming Fed rate hike and a litany of other factors including plunging commodity prices and idiosyncratic political risks, EM currencies are in free fall which means that it's not just China that's in the process of liquidating USD assets.
bond  bubble  USA  China  Forex  foreignexchange  treasuries  Fed  Taper  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  2015  2016  New  Normal  Richard  Koo  secular  stagnation  economic  history  recovery  emerging  market  emerging  middle  class  Developing  World  global  economy  flat  borderless 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
RDQ's Ryding Says U.S. Treasury Yields Are `Unhealthy' - YouTube
Operation Twist will have very little macro economic impact
Fed reflates economy, but does not help to heal
Low yields are fundamentally a sign that nobody wants to take risk.
-
ECB provides Dollar lending facility till year end. Yesterday Central Bank Intervention - help for Europes banks.
operationtwist  2011  QE3  economics  macroeconomics  microeconomics  greatrecession  recession  recovery  reflation  yield  debt  unhealthy  treasury  treasuries  deflation  Japan  USA  monetary  policy  europe  creditcrunch  lenderoflastresort 
september 2011 by asterisk2a
Economist Warns of Public Bubble - Real Time Economics - WSJ
The U.S. economy has traded a public bubble for a private one, according to this forecast by California forecasting firm Beacon Economics.

The firm’s stance is that the $787 billion federal stimulus package and the Federal Reserve’s near-zero interest rates have propped up the economy but will prove unsustainable and are actually exacerbating some of the imbalances that led to the recession. “The nation seems to be trading in its private bubble for a public one, swapping one set of unsustainable economic drivers for another,” the report said.
bubble  public  debt  deficit  budget  usa  2010  outlook  forecast  benbernanke  interestrate  private  treasuries  stimulus  housing  TARP  toxicassets  losses  accounting  property  inflation  savings  consumption  package  greatrecession  recovery  double-dip  recession  deflation  richardkoo  KennethRogoff 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Bernanke Speaks: Expect Deficit Warnings - Real Time Economics - WSJ
As he restarts this campaign, he is likely to go beyond the dry mechanics of monetary policy and the Fed’s exit from market rescue programs. One issue on his agenda for the days ahead: Immense government budget deficits.

Mr. Bernanke has warned lawmakers in recent hearings at the House and Senate that U.S. deficits aren’t sustainable. Formulating a credible plan to gradually shrink them over time, he has noted, could help the economy now by bringing down long-term interest rates.

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have risen to nearly 4% from under 3.25% in late November, in part because investors worry about the enormity of debt the government is selling to the public. That rise in rates doesn’t help the Fed, which is trying to keep interest rates low to spur a recovery.
benbernanke  fiscal  policy  interestrate  long-term  outlook  usa  deficit  budget  debt  government  public  treasuries  consequences  unintended 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
The Greatest Shell Game Ever Continues As The Whole World Is Now Insolvent; Updated Thoughts From Chris Martenson On The Upcoming US Funding Crisis | zero hedge
# Record-breaking Treasury auctions continue to go off without a hitch, thanks to massive foreign participation.
# However, the amounts reported to be bought in the auction results do not match the Custody Account or TIC report amounts.
# The Fed is allegedly all done buying MBS and Treasury paper. This cuts off an important source of liquidity for the Treasury, commodity, and stock markets.
# How will these markets respond to a liquidity drought?

Part of the explanation behind this unwavering support for the dollar and US deficit spending by other central banks lays in the fact that other Western and Eastern governments are equally insolvent. It's possible that they feel they really have no choice but to play along, because the alternative would be to inflict a vicious and deeply unpopular austerity program on their own country, while everybody else is partying on thin-air money. Who's going to be the first to do that? Nobody, that's who.
MBS  Fed  treasury  treasuries  usa  debt  stockmarket  rally  2009  2010  deficit 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
PIMCO Is Long CAD, AUD And CNY; Short EUR, GBP And JPY, And Other Disclosures By Paul McCulley | zero hedge
Q: What structural headwinds stand in the way of recovery in the U.S.?
McCulley: We believe the U.S. is in the second stage of a three-stage recovery. The economy was first propped up by policy response – low interest rates and fiscal stimulus. Currently, we are moving from the dark to the sunny side of the inventory cycle. The final stage – job creation, private income creation and self-sustaining demand growth – has yet to materialize, due to headwinds of deleveraging and de-risking.

We like to use the analogy of the three-stage-rocket; we are waiting for the thrust from that third rocket. There’s a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the hand-off from stimulus and inventories to job creation, and that is reflected in the Federal Reserve’s continued exceptionally low interest rate policy.
We believe the severe austerity measures brought on by the fiscal problems in the periphery countries, such as Greece and Spain, will lead to a chronic shortfall of Euroland-wide aggregate demand
recovery  usa  2010  inventory  greatrecession  QE  MBS  treasuries  Fed  monetary  policy  greece  spain  bailout  ECB  demand  economics  richardkoo  deflation  inflation  output-gap  china  currency  yuan  dollar  politics  timgeithner 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Why Aren’t Banks Lending? They Are Being Rational | The Big Picture
Lending money is a risky business; there is the possibility of loss. Under-capitalized banks cannot take that chance. By not lending, their capital base goes up. IT is the rational thing to do from their perspective.
Rather than engage in traditional money lending, these banks have decided to simply borrow from the Fed at 0%, and make risk free loans to the Treasury at 3%.
.
--- BATTLE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY --- KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS vs LIBERAL ECONOMICS
... 1 point for keynes to stop the downturn
... 1 point to austrians bc banks dont lend
.... 1 point to austrians because govnt debt is on the verge of failure
.... -1 for keynes bc it gave to wrong impression

to be continued 2010.

Why? They need to rebuild their capital levels after 30 years of declining safeguards and capital ratios.

This is yet another unintended consequence of bailing reckless bankers from their folly. Theior oplace in the economy is so distorted, as to become nearly economically meaningless . . .
bank  lending  2009  2010  recovery  recession  rational  irrational  creditline  creditcrunch  psychology  credit  usa  humor  fed  incentive  treasuries  capital  ratio  treasury  freemarkets  distortion  battle-for-the-world-economy  battle-of-ideas  distorted  economic  economy  debt  government  battle  keynes  Keynesianism  liberal  bailout  consequences  2011  2012  depression 
december 2009 by asterisk2a

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