asterisk2a + transmission   116

What Happens Next (In Europe)?
the odds of another crisis are higher than a rally to fresh records. [...]
“The 2009-2015 rally originated from two main drivers: a massive stimulus, and credit expansion in China,” said Goette, who’s a partner at his firm in Zug, Switzerland and helps oversee 1 billion Swiss francs ($1 billion).

“European earnings have not followed suit so far. Skepticism regarding central-bank operations has started to emerge.”
ECB  Brussels  recovery  reflate  reflation  China  credit  bubble  Germany  PIGS  zombie  banks  European  Bank  Supervision  European  Economic  Area  European  Election  2014  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  MarioDraghi  OMT  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  Brexit  Grexit  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  history  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  Yanis  Varoufakis  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  youth  unemployment  demographic  bubble  OAP  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  liberal  reform  Precariat  precarious  employment  low  pay  low  income  Minijob  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  1  Euro  Job  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  union  union  Rechtsruck  Bundesbank  fault  lines  shareholder  capitalism  bailout  GFC  2016  PBOC  Exportweltmeister  zombie  Financial  Stability  Board  crony  capitalism  Deutsche  Bank  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  Beton  Gold  Betongold  asset  allocation  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  democracy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Russia  Crimea  Ukraine  U 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
German Banks Told To Start Hoarding Cash | Zero Hedge
In order to generate artificial economic growth, the ECB wants banks to make as many loans as possible, no matter how stupid or idiotic. They believe that economic growth is simply a function of loans. The more money that’s loaned out, the more the economy will grow. This is the sort of theory that works really well in an economic textbook. But it doesn’t work so well in a history textbook. Cheap money encourages risky behavior. It gives banks an incentive to give ‘no money down’ loans to homeless people with no employment history. It creates bubbles (like the housing bubble from 10 years ago), and ultimately, financial panics (like the banking crisis from 8 years ago). Banks are supposed to be conservative, responsible managers of other people’s money. When central bank policies penalize that practice, bad things tend to happen.
Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Venture  Capital  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  reflate  reflation  recovery  GFC  debtoverhang  liquidity  trap  zombie  banks  deleveraging  Debt  Super  Cycle  secular  stagnation  consumer  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  household  car  loan  credit  card  student  loan  student  loan  student  Bubble  generation  rent  OMT  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  Leiharbeit  Zeitarbeit  Agenda  2010  low  pay  low  income  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  transmission  mechanism  velocity  of  money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Central bankers on the defensive as weird policy becomes even weirder | Business | The Guardian
Growth is tepid, productivity is poor, and inflation is too low: all is not going according to policymakers’ masterplans [...] As far as the OECD is concerned, monetary policy is being forced to take too much of the strain. Its chief economist Catherine Mann made the point that lasting recovery required three things: stimulative monetary policy; activist fiscal policy; and structural reform. The OECD wants the second of these ingredients to be added to the recipe in the form of increased spending on public infrastructure, something it says would more than pay for itself at a time when governments can borrow so cheaply.
monetary  policy  G20  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  UK  western  world  USA  Japan  Abenomics  George  Osborne  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  productivity  underinvestment  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  Taper  deflationary  deflation  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  zombie  banks  MervynKing  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  discretionary  spending  distortion  property  bubble  disposable  income  productive  investment  austerity  business  confidence  foreign  direct  investment  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  policy  folly  policy  error  short-termism  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  self-regulation  City  of  London  investment  banking  retail  banking  OECD  IMF  KennethRogoff  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  trust 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Energy price slump sends eurozone into deflation - BBC News
Energy drove the decline, with prices down 8% in February compared to a 5.4% slide in January. The dismal figures have dashed hopes that ECB efforts to boost prices were working. That raises the chance of the bank announcing further stimulus measures next month. It has already announced a cut to its bank deposit rate, which remains in negative territory. ECB chief Mario Draghi insisted earlier this month the policies were working. [...] The Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bankers agreed on Saturday to use "all policy tools, monetary, fiscal and structural - individually and collectively" to renew growth. //&! Eurozone economy grows 1.5% in 2015 - 12 February 2016 &! Eurozone growth forecast cut to 1.7% - 4 February 2016
Europe  European  Union  deflationary  deflation  Fiscal  Pact  zombie  banks  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Schuldenbremse  austerity  2016  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  babyboomers  Germany  policy  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  George  Osborne  G20  UK  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Japan  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Mark  Carney 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Interview With Mohamed El-Erian: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View
7:50 New Normal is secular stagnation and decades-long NIRP, ZIRP, QE distortion. structural, secular. no cyclical recovery. but long secular challenges; prolonged period of low growth. // also inequality! // currently policy makers subsidise debtors, subsidise creditors - financial repression. promote risk taking. // richard koo would not agree with el-erian's notion that gov balance sheets are same as household balance sheets. // 12:10 demographic issue! political. and economic elements in it of secular stagnation. [...] borrowing growth // rise of far-right! // corps sitting on cash // inequality! // bc of lived in artificial world of borrowed growth, created massive divergence. // min 15:30 richard koo would not agree that central banks are the only game in town. central banks have complained abt austerity gov. // min 20 - Feds intellectually inflexible. comfort zone. self-regulation & great moderation. // reflation didnt work bc no fixed fundamentals // perfect storm! lost trust.
New  Normal  financial  repression  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  secular  stagnation  GFC  credit  bubble  book  western  world  emerging  middle  class  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Paul  Krugman  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Joseph  Stiglitz  distortion  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  system  retirement  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  far-right  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Pact  Schuldenbremse  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  reflate  reflation  trust  trustagent  distrust  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  public  sentiment  public  perception  bank  bailout  Japan  Abenomics  AIIB  IMF  China  BRIC  self-regulation  Great  Moderation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What's holding back the world economy? | Business | The Guardian
[ continued financialisation of economy / faustian pact ] QE and low interest rates have disproportionately created wealth in the financial sector and inflated asset bubbles. It has done little for the real economy. The rules of the market need to be rewritten [...] dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse. In the US, quantitative easing did not boost consumption and investment partly because most of the additional liquidity returned to central banks’ coffers in the form of excess reserves. [...] private investment did not grow [...] [ QE supported only financial sector and zombie banks and corporations, little to nothing went into the real economy for investment in western world ] [ which leads us to say we are still in a banking crisis per se ]
Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  austerity  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  Student  Bubble  loan  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  wage  stagnation  income  growth  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  mortgage  market  NPL  debt  servitude  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  inequality  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  asset  equity  VIX  volatility  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  aggregate  demand  income  redistribution  repo  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  financial  market  GFC  banking  crisis  retail  banking  investment  banking  hot-money  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  BRIC  rent-seeking  rentier  carbon  tax  economic  damage 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Amid market turmoil and confusion, there are four key economic trends shaping society
The UK economy currently gets nowhere near its target of 2%. Inflation would decrease the value of current debts, making them less of a burden. In a world without much inflation, it is hard to get wages up. The worse case scenario is that debt costs increase, as prices and wages stagnate. [ ignoring debt and income growth - stagnation at their peril - youtu.be/KIaXVntqlUE - gov is no household budget, Steve Keen + Richard Koo ] [...] And in this age of austerity, these factors will work against governments seeking to reduce the welfare bill. Recent data shows that, in UK cities, growing numbers of low paid jobs have led to rising claims for welfare such as housing benefits, defeating the government’s aims to reduce spending.
economic  history  secular  stagnation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  inflation  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  minimum  wage  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  tax  credit  housing  benefit  working  tax  credit  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  western  world  GDP  wage  inflation  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  inequality  income  inequality  income  redistribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  monetary  system  monetary  theory  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  banks  monetary  velocity  Niall  Ferguson  NPL  junk  bond  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  China  credit  BRIC  output  gap  productivity  industrial  policy  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  property  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  money  supply  faultlines  global  imbalances  recovery  working  poor  Precariat 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  deposit  levy  MarioDraghi  Abenomics  economic  history  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  recovery  Yen  Euro  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  distortion  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  debt  bubble  New  Normal  financial  repression  faultlines  global  economy  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Japan  UK  secular  stagnation  western  world  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflation  Sweden  Switzerland  China  Yuan  JGB  2016  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Super  Cycle  recession  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Why is the pound falling so sharply? - BBC News
Weak economic data is casting doubt on the future performance of the UK economy, with inflation persistently well below the Bank of England's 2% target and earnings growth slowing down from a six-year high. Earlier this month, figures for November showed that UK industrial output had suffered its sharpest decline since 2013. Looking further ahead, investors are worried about the outcome of a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU. As Andy Scott of foreign exchange services firm HiFX put it: "Concerns over the UK economy and the risk of a Brexit look likely to continue to haunt sterling." Traders are also generally more risk-averse in the light of the global turmoil caused by Chinese market problems and falling oil prices, which makes them reluctant to buck sterling's downward trend.
UK  BOE  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  debtoverhang  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  industrial  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  MPC  energy  policy  energy  price  competitive  competitiveness  STEM  underinvestment  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  corporate  tax  rate  subsidies  subsidizing  secular  stagnation  immigration  migration  job  creation  low  income  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  London  Scottish  Independence  Scottish  referendum  Devolution  Brexit  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  global  economy  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  student  debt  baddebt  NPL  private  debt  economic  history  Niall  Ferguson  democracy  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  precarious  work  Contractor  low  pay  minimum  wage  George  Osborne  Tories  dogma  ideology  Conservative  Party  neoliberal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
In the loop October 2: Flemish separatism, F1 and the Juncker plan by POLITICO Europe
min 17 - behind-the-scenes fight in the European Parliament over the appointment of top managers for the so-called Juncker Plan: a €315 billion EU investment plan. // threat of White Elephants, roads and bridges to nowhere ... only politicians can put themselves in front of photojournalists for photo op. no productive investments into the future. renewable, smart grid, private public paternerships, carbon emission reduction projects ie urbanisation planning projects to half city traffic and put cycling network in place, and zero emission public transportation, ... --- no accountability, no oversight no transparency. risk of corruption, bribery, dirty handshakes, ...
European  Union  technocrat  bureaucrat  Jean-Claude  Juncker  infrastructure  investment  STEM  Research  R&D  underinvestment  fiscal  policy  Pact  fiscal  stimulus  public  investment  business  investment  Schuldenbremse  Politics  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Brussels  European  Parliament  European  Election  2014  European  Commission  Eurobond  PIGS  PIIGSFB  Richard  Koo  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  Germany  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Eurogroup  austerity  Grexit  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  excess  reserves  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ECB  QE  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  corruption  ideology  dogma  campaign  promises  White  Elephant  productive  investment  productivity  Makers  policy  folly  social  contract  political  theory  accountability  transparency  oversight  2015 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Nomi Prins-Federal Reserve Transition to Destruction - YouTube
via - http://schiffgold.com/interviews/former-wall-street-insider-some-form-of-bank-bail-ins-will-come-to-us-video/ ||&! QE and ZIRP bad policy, bank and market cuddeling. no mainstreet recovery! trickle-down failed. Private sector can not carry existing minimal momentum forward. policy has not helped people on the ground. // many bubbles created: junk bond/zombie corps, car loans, student loans, property, ... // transition to destruction, volatility is first sign. // market manipulation! // inflated financial system // rise in NPL! where how will they cover that? another bailout? or bail-in. taking depositors haircut. FDIC can't cover that all.
ZIRP  NIRP  book  QE  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  BRIC  China  2015  junk  bond  trickle-down  economics  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  household  debt  UK  USA  BOE  Fed  mandate  Fed  Janet  Yellen  Mark  Carney  MPC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  retail  banking  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  market  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  benbernanke  alangreenspan  dot.com  speculative  bubbles  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  private  debt  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  fiscal  policy  austerity  consumer  debt  credit  card  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debtoverhang  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mainstreet.org  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  crony  capitalism  corporate  debt  bubbles  asset  bubble  correction  mortgage  market  libor  rigging  scandal  trust  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  FX  reserves  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  balance  sheet  recession  Niall  Ferguson  financial  repression  distortion  Pr 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England may cut rates, says chief economist - BBC News
Softening employment figures and weakening surveys on manufacturing and construction output suggested growth in the UK could slow in the second half of the year and inflation might not pick up as expected. Furthermore, problems in emerging markets could be a drag on UK growth and the headwinds from those economies were unlikely to abate any time soon, Mr Haldane added. //&! In a wide-ranging speech that called on central bankers to think more radically to fend off the next downturn – including the notion of abolishing cash – Haldane warned the UK was not ready for higher borrowing costs. He described recent events in Greece and China as "the latest leg of what might be called a three-part crisis trilogy."
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Fed has to deal with its own zombie apocalypse
"However, there are pockets of greater weakness like these zombie companies. These pockets are likely to see some more turbulence than overall conditions. Some companies definitely will go out of business." It isn't just the zombies, though, that should worry about higher rates. Corporate America overall has been piling on the debt, which grew 8.3 percent in the second quarter, according to figures the Fed released Friday. [...] Michael Contopoulos, high-yield strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said the high-yield space is a mess no matter what the Fed does. Global economic weakness and deteriorating fundamentals are making it increasingly harder for the Fed to underwrite junk debt through a zero funds rate. [...] Earnings for junk companies have been "incredibly weak," [...] "leverage is at all-time highs" while "defaults and downgrades are creeping into the market." [...] the issues with high-yield could be more secular in nature.
zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Junk  Bond  Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  USA  Richard  Koo  interest  payments  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unconventional  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  distortion  unknown  unkown  complexity  QT  2015  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  credit  ratings  secular  stagnation  western  world  refinancing  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  corporate  debt  leverage  margin  trading  reflate  reflation  productivity  UK  Europe  output  gap  competitive  competition  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  New  Normal  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Is Global Economic Doubt Behind the Unchanged Rate? - YouTube
youtu.be/f5_AGIMe32k // much higher $ already put ~25bps on US domestic market. // Fed is a risk manager now // labour market got a check mark, but not inflation bc of tech, stronger$ (taper anticipation), commodities lower, further deflationary pressures (retail price fighting 4 increase like4like sales), globalisation (competition), secular stagnation (continued low growth in western world, lower aggregate demand overall, lower baseline), consumer unable 2pickup where it threw in hat (deleveraging, no savings, debt overhang household, consumer). A new normal of growth of ~3% (give/take) globally aggregate & western wrld (2-2.5%, EU aggregate even lower). In this world, THERE WILL BE NO INFLATION PRESSURE (2% or higher, &3bn ppl free labour wrldwide) IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS THE REAL ECONOMY 4 EVERY DAY FOLK DOESNT REFLECT REFLATED ASSET PRICES via QE, ZIRP, credit bubbles arnd world enabled by central banks. &! youtu.be/NVa5fkz8X0o &! youtu.be/Ny3bbonX3d0 &! 1.usa.gov/1JdKZxp
Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  2015  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Janet  Yellen  participation  rate  employment  underemployed  full  employment  unemployment  structural  unemployment  USA  China  BRIC  credit  bubble  complexity  global  economy  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  property  bubble  BIS  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  secular  stagnation  western  world  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Super  Rich  1%  faultlines  savings  glut  Impediments  structural  imbalance  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  disposable  income  income  inequality  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  UK  BOE  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  security  labour  market  recovery  policy  response  fiscal  policy  austerity  Schuldenbremse  Pact  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Jim Grant: The Fed Turned the Stock Market Into a 'Hall of Mirrors' - YouTube
- bull market in equities not reflective of real fundamentals on the side of the consumer (aggregate demand, marginal propensity to consume). can not pick up the tab. inequality also does not help.
equity  bubble  frothy  distortion  USA  Fed  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  BRIC  BOE  ECB  excess  reserves  correction  2015  BOJ  reflate  reflation  Abenomics  hunt  for  yield  recovery  GFC  Taper  FOMO  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  fiscal  policy  austerity  western  world  developed  world  secular  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  income  gap  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  hot-money  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  property  bubble  Richard  Koo  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  fiat  currency  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Europe  UK  Japan  Germany  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  job  creation  job  security  working  poor  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Sozialer  Abstieg  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  inequality  income  mobility  Super  Rich  1%  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  Polarisation  Career  Politicians  dogma  ideology  crony  capitalism 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Brazil's downgrade | Authers' Note - YouTube
- 6 killer apps not yet properly installed. - // and still dependent on western world demand! aggregate demand via western consumer. // credit bubble and ZIRP/NIRP/QE has run its way largely // private sector could not pick up recovery. no appetite. same for SME SMB mittelstand. excess reserves not lend out because the horse has to drink by itself, can't make the drink. // especially when it has no means to served future credit interest payment coupons and principal repayment with no income growth! for decades. // inequality huts, middle class destoryed. - Career Politicans, Fear, polarisation, inequality, gini coefficient, zeit arbeit, leiharbeit, self-employment, working conditions, ...sozialer abstieg, squeezed middle class, ... insecurity, cloudy future, richard koo: austerity isn't helping!
Brazil  BRIC  Developing  World  China  credit  bubble  Latin  America  India  Russia  South  Africa  2015  Niall  Ferguson  NiallFerguson  recovery  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  emerging  middle  class  western  aggregate  demand  Supply  and  and  Supply  economic  history  Richard  Koo  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  globalization  globalisation  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  correction  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  PBOC  banking  crisis  bank  bailout  austerity  UK  USA  Europe  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  policy  consolidation  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  low  income  job  creation  labour  market  wage  growth  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  Super  Rich  1%  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  business  investment  business  confidence  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  underemployed  participation  rate  productivity  output  gap  macroeconomic  policy  policy  job  microeconomi 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
World Bank warns on US rate rise - BBC News
[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4
Taper  Fed  BOE  2015  BIS  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  World  Bank  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Brazil  India  South  Africa  Russia  Europe  UK  BOJ  Abenomics  liquidity  credit  squeeze  excess  reserves  PBOC  economic  history  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  ECB  commodity  prices  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  petrodollar  QT  FX  reserves  global  trade  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  western  deflationary  deflation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  refinancing  creditrating  creditrisk  deleveraging  private  debt  household  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  low  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  downward  mobility  working  poor  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Sozialer  Abstieg  j 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &! youtu.be/SZe3issLIb8
Raghuram  Rajan  BIS  centralbanks  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  excess  reserves  speculative  bubbles  reflate  reflation  economic  history  faultlines  credit  bubble  BRIC  2015  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  secular  stagnation  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  globalization  globalisation  financial  market  zombie  banks  savings  glut  business  confidence  business  investment  USA  UK  Europe  China  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  speculative  speculation  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  ECB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  deflationary  deflation  fiscal  policy  irrational  exuberance  panic  hubris  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Taper  book  structural  imbalance  Impediments  reserve  currency  fiat  currency  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  fiscal  deficit  fiscal  stimulus  Germany  austerity  dogma  ideology  credibility  Career  Politicians  Pact  Schuldenbremse  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  complexity  incomplete  information  shadow  banking  uncertainty  volatility  distortion  financial  repression  governance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Public Lecture by Professor Niall Ferguson 2013-04-09 - YouTube
[6 Killer Apps - youtu.be/xpnFeyMGUs8 ] Degeneration and Regeneration after the GFC // interlude: Margaret Thatcher, the power of ideas in public office, in politics: Nature of freedom, economic freedom & other freedoms. Hayek & Adam Smith // The Great Degeneration (new Book 2013). Theme: The role of institutions in the creation and preservation of freedom. // GFC = "The slight depression." Avoided Great Depression like scenario by policy response (reflation) different to previous history. Talks abt equity market levels back 2 pre-2007 levels. EQUITY/(financial) ASSET PRICES. Bank Bailout! But NOT reached (real economy) escape velocity! Proper recovery! Under Keynes it should be an admission of defeat (bc lack of fiscal stimulus)! Is a sub-plot in the story of western decline! Great reconvergence of west & the rest of the world. // &! youtu.be/VVsP2X4kuA8 &! importance of civil institutions - youtu.be/8RB7Ah95RM4 bit.ly/1NqF7am &! youtu.be/kXTjj9NQKYo &! youtu.be/tyYTChxYAQ4
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan's IPO of the Century - Bloomberg View
The privatization couldn't have come at a more opportune moment. Even Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, an early Abenomics cheerleader, said this week that he's "really, really worried" about Tokyo’s chances of ending a two-decade slump. The hope is that the listing, which will be targeted at individual Japanese, will encourage households to invest more of their savings. Perhaps more important, it could enliven the country's stagnant banking sector. Japan is among the developed world's most overbanked nations, with more than 100 sleepy regional players (84 of which are publicly traded) servicing 126 million people. Thanks to the Bank of Japan's zero-interest-rate policies, profit margins are shrinking even faster than the population.
Abenomics  Japan  economic  history  2015  neoliberalism  neoliberal  TPP  Privatisation  liberal  economic  reform  economic  refugee  corporate  governance  culture  society  demographic  bubble  competitive  competition  competitiveness  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  deflation  Yen  BOJ  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  White  Elephants  asset  allocation  R&D  STEM  industrial  policy  China  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  excess  reserves  M3 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Austerity Now: Brazil's Downgrade and Reckoning - Bloomberg View
Brazil faces its deepest recession in 25 years, policy drift and now a reputation deficit that threaten to undo years of prosperity and social gains. [...] even years on, with the economy set to shrink by two percent this year, and unemployment and consumer debt spiking, Brazil looks more likely cast as the leader of submerging markets and the sick man of the BRICS, the club of outsize developing nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- once touted to lead world growth.
liberal  economic  reform  economic  reform  BRIC  credit  bubble  2015  Brazil  China  India  Russia  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  centralbanks  BIS  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  global  trade  global  economy  GFC  recovery  PBOC  economic  history  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  liquidity  trap  2008  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  Carry  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  commodity  prices  South  Africa  democracy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  bribery  corruption 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why did Japan stop growing? Professor Takeo Hoshi at ANU - YouTube
Blyth argued its culture/society & structural. TPP trade deal might help productivity growth & opening Japan further 2 global trade. & encourage immigration reform. Regulatory reform; stop protection of zombies (gov guarantees, contracts, subsidies), corporate governance. Oversight. Transparency. Also Start-up rate (bottom-up disruption) needs reform (reduce red tape, create start-up/business hubs) // &! What is Abenomics? - youtu.be/_UafzhHzmwE //&! Noriko Hama & Yukio Noguchi "Abenomics and What comes After" - youtu.be/a29FTJXYev0 'unable to share affluence' - income redistribution << marginal propensity to consume, 16% left out of society (poverty), lack of empathy & compassion. BOJ is single lender 2 gov. Career Politicians! Companies have no need 2 borrow/cant force banks 2 lend. //&! min52 Problem of rising long-term interest rates solved w BOJ debt monetisation = inflation (probable near future scenario). &! youtu.be/ArnLHTE0e1g &! youtu.be/wYtJ7Fyn9NA &! youtu.be/AbKeTeb-I_M
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
After the Crisis - Mark Blyth - YouTube
>> what if rise of the banks (deregulation, easy credit, global financial markets - arbitrage, and making money with money) fuelled the growth of the last ~25-30 years. // min 47 3 asset bubbles popped // USA - 40% of corporate profits came from 10% of corporate sector (banks) // 30% of MIT grads went to banks instead of real world engineering and manufacturing. // underwater private sector! via credit bubble: student loans (now 1trn and still rising in USA and UK, future disposable income/discretionary spending lower than babyboomers because of wage stagnation, no wage growth) credit cards, mortgages, heloc (home equity line of credit) --- all will have to focus on paying back debt. // 2015 - us student loans 1.25trn - bit.ly/1KJ29uc + auto loans << bubble to eventually pop when collateral is falling! ie stagnant wages for 10 more years. and more and more cant repay their student loans. // 1:12:00 Bubbles move on; dot.com, real estate (property) & commodities, China,
Mark  Blyth  austerity  GFC  recovery  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  economic  history  PIIGSFB  bank  bailout  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  TBTF  ECB  NPL  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  credit  bubble  trickle-down  economics  China  2015  2008  dot.com  western  world  secular  stagnation  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  generationy  generation  rent  Millennials  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Super  Rich  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  self-employment  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  underemployed  precarious  work  working  poor  inequality  Gini  coefficient  post-capitalism  crony  capitalism  capitalism  manufactured  consent  Polarisation  Thomas  Piketty  developed  world  income  inequality  propaganda  populism  corporate  state  corporate  media  democracy  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  Lobbying  lobby  deregulation  self-regulation  Workers  Union  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  distribution  income  growth  income  mobility  low  income  income  redistribution  stagnation  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  household  debt  private  debt  asset  bubble  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  distortion  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  monetary 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Exposing The Lie Behind The "Strong Jobs Recovery" In One Chart | Zero Hedge
This data shows that the so-called jobs recovery has been spearheaded by cheap labor, with job gains going disproportionately to the least educated — and lowest-paid — workers. This is scarcely a good basis for resilient consumer spending driven by “solid” job growth that the consensus – including the Fed – is banking on. // bit.ly/1IN2i8f - But the E/P (Employment/Population) ratio for high school or college graduates – i.e., eight out of nine American adults – has not recovered any of its recessionary losses, and stands about where it started, one, two and three years ago (purple line).
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! bit.ly/1fQ2lcq // &! bloom.bg/1Euf6peh // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
El-Erian: This Is Not 1998 or 2008 - YouTube
it is a repricing. a correction. prices got too far away (reflation of equity & co through ZIRP, NIRP, QE, speeches, plus hunt for yield & FOMO). It just happened to be China being the trigger, the wake-up call - very loud wake-up call - bc of its economic size and heft. (taper talks 2015 that made equity already nervous, and bond holders too, was too timid). Reality check. // Was it justified, yes. // In the long-run, we are all dead. And in the long-run things will, eventually, correct itself. // People may take now into account a new normal, lower interest rate environment, lower global growth, lower yields, lower inflationary pressures, lower dividend payments, more work that corporates (crony capitalism) need to do to squeeze out that earnings growth especially in the western world. inequality - low wage growth/stagnation - less discretionary spending on non-essential items (in the western world). & "realization that policy tools were less effective". &! bv.ms/1NFsFUn
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Crash bei Dax und Dow: Das war's mit Illusion Nummer drei - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Solange die Weltwirtschaft brummt, kann eine einzelne Volkswirtschaft ihre Währung so lange abwerten, bis sie wieder wettbewerbsfähig ist und der Aufschwung fast von alleine kommt. Globale Krisen funktionieren anders. Die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt kann nicht abwerten. Sie kann nur produktiver werden, aber nicht wettbewerbsfähiger. Da alle großen Wirtschaftsregionen der Welt - USA, Euroraum, Russland, China, Japan und Südostasien - ihre Mega-Krisen in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten hatten, gibt es auch keinen Unversehrten mehr, der die Rolle einer weltwirtschaftlichen Lokomotive übernehmen könnte. Das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft verlangsamt sich somit stetig. [...] Die fetten Jahre sind vorbei [...] [ Share buyback was hot in 2014/15 till now ] [...] Die Verschiebung der Macht von Arbeit zu Kapital schreitet nicht weiter fort. [ low interest rate environment bc low capital returns, new Millennials have to serve now this debt burden and can't hope to inflate it away. & stagnant wages! ]
IMF  OECD  global  economy  global  trade  globalisation  global  imbalances  globalization  borderless  flat  world  GFC  dot.com  recovery  reflate  reflation  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  economic  history  austerity  2015  China  USA  UK  Europe  savings  glut  structural  imbalance  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  output  gap  participation  rate  productivity  Great  Moderation  New  Normal  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  inflation  expectation  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  energy  price  OPEC  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  share  buyback  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  public  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  M&A  mainstreet.org  crony  capitalism  exploitation  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  capitalism  bank  bailout  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  political  theory  structural  unemployment  Impediments  faultlines  policy  social  l 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Wirtschaftslage: Ungebremst in die nächste Krise - SPIEGEL ONLINE
So instabil, wie die Lage ist, bedarf es womöglich nur eines vergleichsweise kleinen Anstoßes, um die nächste Krise auszulösen. Und was passiert dann? [...] Kaum noch Spielräume, nirgends. Weder die Finanzpolitik noch die Zinspolitik kann bei einem erneuten Abschwung viel ausrichten. Das gilt auch für die Schwellenländer: Russland & Brasilien mühen sich, ihre Zahlungsfähigkeit zu sichern. Sogar Saudi-Arabien muss sich im Ausland verschulden. China's [...] Kapitalmarktblase aufgebläht und leidet nun unter einer der höchsten privatwirtschaftlichen Verschuldungsquoten aller Emerging Markets. Die ernsten Schwierigkeiten, vor denen die Volksrepublik steht, zeichnen sich bereits seit Langem ab. [...] Japan ist dann überall. [debt fuelled recovery (fiscal stimulus) that always were. now we have austerity & the "recovery" reflects that. plus deflationary effects; further globalisation, flat borderless world, technology, commoditisation of XYZ, future consumer (growth) not in the west!, etc]
UK  USA  Europe  recovery  2015  Taper  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  austerity  OECD  IMF  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BIS  Japan  China  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  secular  stagnation  lost  decade  lost  generation  Abenomics  fiscal  stimulus  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  Oil  price  OPEC  deflationary  deflation  currency  war  currency  debasement  hunt  for  yield  distortion  bank  bailout  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  globalization  globalisation  flat  world  borderless  inflation  expectation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  Developing  Frontier  Markets 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's Devaluation Becomes Japan's Problem - Bloomberg View
The worsening economy, which voters hoped Abe would have sorted out by now, doesn't help. Inflation-adjusted wages dropped 2.9 percent in June, a sign Monday's second-quarter gross domestic product report for the may be truly ugly. [...] After 961 days, all Abenomics has really achieved is a sharply weaker yen, modest steps to tighten corporate governance and marketing slogans asking companies to hire more women. [...] If Japan offers a cautionary tale, it's that weaker currency alone isn't the answer. If Abe had used the yen's 35 percent plunge since late 2012 to good effect -- passing big reforms on labor flexibility, import tariffs, tax policy, supporting startups, reducing red tape -- Japan might not be facing the prospect of another recession. [ Japan's experience is a red flashing warning light for UK, US and especially Germany. ie uncompetitive Zombie corporations held alive with NIRP, ZIRP, and future new normal low interest rate environment. Where is growth? Silicon Valley. ]
Japan  economic  history  Abenomics  BOJ  2015  China  Yuan  RMB  currency  debasement  currency  war  devaluation  fiscal  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  policy  deflationary  deflation  globalisation  globalization  secular  stagnation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Makers  competitive  competitiveness  Exportweltmeister  competitive  advantage  competition  flat  world  New  Normal  Richard  Koo  Developing  Frontier  Markets  borderless  global  trade  global  economy  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  financial  crisis  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombi  banks  creative  destruction  Silicon  Valley  technological  progress  skill-biased  technological  change  Software  Is  Eating  The  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Future  of  Work  deleveraging  asset  bubble  Wall  Street  reflation  reflate  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  inflation  targeting  Fed  BOE  PBOC  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Yellen sees growing confidence in US - BBC News
'we will raise rates as economy can take it.' meaning if economy can't take it and a bubble is staring you in the face, they won't use rates (or even any other monetary policy tool), lets not even start on macroprudential policy under the current state of Congress ... to reign in an obvious bubble. Richard Koo argues, western world still in balance sheet recession. and shiller argues we are at risk to suffer another financial crisis and we have no tool left to fight a downward drag, to quote BIS // The chair of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, has suggested there's growing confidence in the US economy. And after more than six years of near-zero interest rates - it seems a rate rise is likely sometime this year. But facing Congress, the Fed chair faced some tough questions from politicians wondering why the increase was taking so long. // &! youtu.be/zn5zt1XzX6g - Fed Chair Janet Yellen's Testimony in Two Minutes
Taper  Fed  2015  2016  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  macroprudential  policy  monetary  policy  GFC  dot.com  irrational  exuberance  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  debtoverhang  consumer  debt  credit  card  household  debt  private  debt  BIS  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  monetary  stimulus  bond  bubble  China  equity  bubble  global  economy  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Mark Carney indicates that interest rates may rise this year - BBC News
>> uk is as USA, consumer dependent // bbc.in/1M8GM3L - 2% in two years - inflation targeting, slack in economy drag on rising cost, ... // looks forward how inflation looks at the turn of the year! as commodity price drop gets out of calculation y/y. // &! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33560035
UK  BOE  2015  Taper  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Mark  Carney  monetary  policy  mortgage  market  property  bubble  housing  market  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  deleveraging  recovery  economic  history  GFC  Richard  Koo  BIS  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  savings  rate  credit  card  consumer  debt  household  debt  private  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  austerity  fiscal  policy  secular  stagnation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  inflation  targeting  output  gap  productivity  2016 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - YouTube
too big to bail, thus stick it to the countries individually. // Draghi Put - LTRO, LTRO 2, ELA, what ever it takes, TLTRO, // 5trn (40% of EU GDP) put into banks since the crisis (as of 2013). // NPL (via stress test) - 1.22trn in NPL in EU banking system as of 2013. // TINA - there is no alternative (same with UK budget2015) - bbc.in/1N3hrdu &! Angela Merkel "Alternativlos" // bailed out the assets (income for banks via mortgages, loans, businesses loans and credit lines, insurance policies, 401ks, pension fund contributions) of the top 20-30% of the income distribution. austerity is put on the bottom 70-20% of the income distribution. a bailout not just of the banks, the system, but also the top 20-30%, the Super Rich, 1%, the Establishment, the Privileged, the babyboomers, the pensioners. ... and add QE, you really reflate/bail out the 1% ... 10% ... 20%, their pensions, investments, and so forth. // this was and still is a Class specific Put Option for those with assets!
Mark  Blyth  austerity  bailout  book  GFC  ECB  toobigtofail  TBTF  bank  bailout  too  big  to  bail  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  financial  repression  economic  history  dogma  ideology  crony  capitalism  European  Union  Troika  Eurogroup  NPL  reflate  reflation  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  complexity  oversight  investment  banking  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  financial  literacy  financial  market  financial  crisis  Wolfgang  Schäuble  MarioDraghi  equity  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  European  Commission  European  Parliament  Angela  Merkel  GroKo  lenderoflastresort  Germany  banking  EuroFin  IMF  OECD  academia  academics  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  spin  doctor  PR  manufactured  consent  propaganda  Lügenpresse  populism  corporate  media  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  budget2015  George  Osborne  Tories  Conservative  Party  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  No  bubble  asset  bubble  R 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Robert J. Shiller: "Are We Headed for Another Financial Crisis?" (final edition, as of MAR 8) - YouTube
3rd ed adds bond market. where richard koo explains bond prices are a symptom of the balance sheet recession as is "deflationary." // liquidity trap // predicting turning points is bad business - highlighting fundy skew is easy. // equity bubble BURST? no. bond bubble BURST? no. how abt unreasonable higher interest rates for businesses bc of Taper from Fed long dated bonds into illiquid market. like Koo argues as possibility, which would depress gdp growth further bc of higher capital cost than the economy fundy actually would demand. contributing 2 the secular stagnation. // Other case: Crash of China (too much of a good thing, irrational exuberance) & Western Central Banks have no means 2 ease further & Career Politicians have no guts 2 actually pull out the guns for once 4 intelligent fiscal stimulus w a long-term view (no white elephants & bridges 2 nowhere). // 19:30 status anxiety, Sozialer Abstieg, everyone for himself, austerity, inequality, Software, etc = secular stagnation
Robert  Shiller  financialcrisis  GFC  economic  history  book  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  psychology  confidence  irrational  exuberance  animal  spirit  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ideology  dogma  economic  model  financial  crisis  housing  market  UK  USA  China  Japan  Richard  Koo  deflationary  hunt  for  yield  sustainable  sustainability  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  deflation  secular  stagnation  negative  real  interest  rate  Taper  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  policy  stimulus  crony  capitalism  mainstreet.org  mainstreet  Wall  Street  exploitation  uncertainty  deleveraging  savings  rate  business  investment  Sozialer  Abstieg  inequality  income  inequality  tax  code  capital  gains  fairness  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  public  investment  productive  investment  personal  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  socioeconomic  status  status  anxiety  social  status  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Gesellschaft  solidarity  society  soziologie  sociology  worry  squeezed  middle  class  precariou 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube
// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?
BIS  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  bond  bubble  Student  Loan  debt  debt  regulation  oversight  governance  BOE  simplicity  incomplete  information  academia  academics  economist  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  economic  history  systemicrisk  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  financial  market  sustainable  sustainability  mortgage  market  UK  USA  China  speculative  speculation  contagion  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  credit  boom  financial  cycle  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  political  economy  political  theory  centralbanks  economic  damage  economic  model  Richard  Koo  animal  spirit  austerity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  robertshiller  Robert  Shiller  ideology  dogma  sovereign  debt  crisis  populism  corporate  state  manufactured  consent  Lügenpresse  BOJ  Fed  currency  war  currency  debasement  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  Japan  hunt  for  yield  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Koo: "Out of the Balance Sheet Recession and into QE 'Trap'" - YouTube
Released new book end of 2014. // Banks unable to lend money 2 unwilling (eligible) customers. Money remains on the private banks (&Central Banks in form of bonds) balance sheets/books & mostly allocated towards parking it overnight @Central Banks deposit facility (thus ECB put up a deposit levy, late into the game) or liquid fairly un(der)productive investment classes like gov bonds. // Companies (& people ie 4 education/housing) borrowing & investing (into the future, that is uncertain, unknown, deflationary)!? // 19:30 Even Abenomics is not working. Bc trauma towards Debt! behavioural economics: experience of debt servitude on less income, additional uncertainty & distrust! // Lowering corporate tax rate (like George Osborne) does not help. // Persistent low inflation expectations. // Taper extremely difficult: 2.5trn excess in long bonds. Unknown territory. Possibly future higher interest rates than fnd economic growth does warrant - adding to output gap & new normal.
2015  UK  USA  liquidity  trap  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Japan  Fed  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  austerity  economic  history  economic  model  academia  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  LTRO  TLTRO  lost  decade  lost  generation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Career  Politicians  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  negative  real  interest  rate  deposit  levy  economic  growth  trickle-down  economics  secular  stagnation  headwinds  Great  Depression  PIIGSFB  PIGS  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  economic  damage  behavioral  economics  zombie  banks  Abenomics  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  cash  flow  cash  flow  management  trust  distrust  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  servitude  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  student  debt  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  competitiveness  competitive  industrial  policy  budget2015  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  demographic  bubble  uncertainty  Sozialer  Abstieg  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Yen  JGB  Taper  greatrecession  USD  dogma  ideology  public  investment  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  productive  investment  book  rate  private  savi 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The world is defenceless against the next financial crisis, warns BIS - Telegraph
Monetary policymakers have run out of room to fight the next crisis with interest rates unable to go lower, the BIS warns. [...] These low interest rates have in turn fuelled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with even lower rates. [greenspan put][dot.com and GFC were in part fuelled by inadequate rate setting and oversight] [...] [BIS also rejecting the notion of secular stagnation]. // &! BIS 'low rates hold back global growth' - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/12ded5aa-1be6-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996 // &! Rising interest rates pose new risk for banks: BIS - reut.rs/1Jgyft9 [...] but a "normalization" of borrowing costs would reverse the debt-fueled inflation of asset prices and hit banks' own loss-absorbing equity capital, the BIS said. "Just as falling yields have supported asset valuation gains in recent years, an eventual normalization would generate losses ... Banks' equity capital would shrink."
BIS  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  Financial  Crisis  business  cycle  economic  cycle  economic  history  centralbanks  Fed  Taper  ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  BOE  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  zombie  banks  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  bailout  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  fractional  reserve  banking  dot.com  GFC  recovery  Greenspan-Put  alangreenspan  Great  Moderation  Ben  Bernanke  Fed  mandate  Bank  Oversight  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  zombie  consumer  structural  imbalance  Impediments  output  gap  productivity  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  secular  stagnation  asset  allocation  distortion  capital  allocation  asset  bubble  job  creation  labour  market  labour  economics  Niedriglohnsektor  Niedriglohn  Service  Sector  Jobs  lost  generation  lost  decade  policy  folly  policy  error  demographic  bubble  sovereign  debt  debt  bubble  consumer  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  growth  economic  damage  structural  unemployment  underemployed  supply  side  economics  microeconomic  policy  vocational  education  education  policy  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  Silicon  Valley  industrial  policy  ideology  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
ECB 'to end Greek bank lifeline' - BBC News
bloom.bg/1yMeCBS reut.rs/1Kin1FN bit.ly/1QWRUoF - Emergency Liquidity Facility (ELA) // ECB is expected to end emergency lending to Greece's banks on Sunday [...] have to "announce a bank holiday on Monday, pending introduction of capital controls". [B]ailout for heavily indebted Greece expires on Tuesday & talks have broken down. [...] "Grexit" from the euro is not inevitable, as the eurozone did resolve Cyprus's banking crisis in 2013 & the country stayed in the euro. [...] [Biggest part is EFSF debt. EU gov money (FR&GER biggest contributors) // Jens Weidmann - on.wsj.com/1KmPprP would have cut it earlier. Current tally €89 billion. // &! econ.st/1Kiugz1 - ECB could bully/force Greece/Syriza to accept any deal given or it will cut of ELA. It did so with Cyprus & Ireland. FT called it 'the quiet enforcer.' // In the End, IMF & EFSF paid off (mostly EU) bank loans for Greece. Not to fill Greece's budget deficit. = Backdoor National Bank Bailout!!! &! bbc.in/1ICV0EA
ECB  ELA  Grexit  2015  bank  run  bankrun  Troika  IMF  capital-flight  capital-controls  capital  controls  Cyprus  of  Cyprus  of  Greece  deposit  haircut  haircut  sovereign  debt  crisis  Great  Depression  austerity  fiscal  sovereignty  Syriza  democracy  Career  Politicians  European  Union  No  Representation  Angela  Merkel  MarioDraghi  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Germany  Leadership  Jens  Weidmann  zombie  banks  banking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  stresstest  EFSF  bank  bailout  GFC  PIGS  IMG  ChristineLagarde  PR  public  relations  spin  doctor  media  conglomerate  manufactured  consent  banking  crisis  economic  history  fairness  public  perception  public  awareness  public  discourse  policy  folly  policy  error  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  capitalism  Failure  recovery  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  deflationary 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Eurozone still in denial about Greece - BBC News
In the highly unlikely event that Greece could generate a 2% or 3% surplus year-in and year-out without its economy shrinking further (which few economists would anticipate), it would take around half a century for Greek public sector debt to fall to a level regarded as sustainable. A half century of austerity? In what modern democracy would that be regarded as a realistic option? So all these fraught talks about a release of the last 7.2bn of cash from the current rescue facility can probably be seen as displacement activity. And if there is agreement in the next day or so on a framework to release that cash, this should be seen as no more than a short-term temporary fix. [...] Or to put it another way, it is all about whether the IMF and eurozone can keep up the pretence that Greece is a sound and solvent debtor. [...] relatively small and weak private sector will ever have the capacity to pay it back.
Grexit  economic  history  PIGS  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  Europe  bailout  zombie  banks  Troika  IMF  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Germany  bank  jog  bank  run  ECB  European  Union  banking  solvency  insolvency  insolvent  Insolvenzverschleppung  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Greece  debt  jubilee  haircut  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  debt  restructuring  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Great  Depression  2015  lost  decade  lost  generation  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  GFC  GoldmanSachs 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Staatsanleihen und Zinsen: Kommt der nächste Crash? - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Oil price recovery (with eventual future supply shortage because of lack of investment in 2014/15/16), + USA Taper possibility end of 15 early 16 + UK Taper possibility mid to late 16 + End of ECB QE in 2016 due to defeat of deflation scenario (indicators) + People go into higher yielding assets which are still safe. // Hier ist eine Vorhersage: Sollten die Zinsen stark steigen, wäre das der Auslöser für das nächste ökonomische Desaster. Dann würden reihenweise Unternehmen, Privatbürger und ganze Staaten in die Pleite rutschen. // some companies have not used the time 2 reduce debt level, just pushed out the maturity, UK consumer debt & mortgage debt risen since 09/10 - default risk rises with market rates rising, UK Taper & lack luster income growth. // Die Notenbanken, vor allem die EZB, werden deshalb alles daran setzen, einen starken Anstieg zu verhindern. Dass es zwischenzeitlich zu heftigen Anfällen von Nervosität kommt, können sie allerdings nicht unterbinden.
bond  bubble  Taper  Oil  price  2015  asset  allocation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  Fed  BOJ  ECB  BOE  Europe  UK  USA  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  GFC  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mortgage  market  consumer  debt  monetary  policy  Super  Cycle  deleveraging  debt  bubble  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  debtoverhang  M3  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  energy  price  austerity 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Another economic crash is coming. How did this happen? – video | Comment is free | The Guardian
David Cameron says a second financial crash is imminent. If he's right, it's because the government bailed out the wrong industry, argues Renegade Economist host Ross Ashcroft. He says the last recession was brought on by too much debt. Today private debt is at the greatest level in recorded human history. By ignoring this and instead focusing on the banks, we are heading for economic armageddon. &! &! &! Global debts rise $57tn since crash - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31136707 &! &! &! The Dirty Little Debt Secret - http://youtu.be/0ptn-jCDizo "Richard Vague - author of The Next Economic Disaster - about his insights into private debt and why this seems to be forbidden knowledge."
debt  bubble  bond  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  monetization  private  debt  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  debt  monetisation  household  debt  debtoverhang  public  debt  GFC  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  Bailout  TBTF  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  fiat  currency  trust  trustagent  confidence  haircut  OECD  lost  decade  lost  generation  Abenomics  QE  Japan  western  world  UK  USA  book 
february 2015 by asterisk2a
Münchau über Quantitative Easing: Wann Anleihenkäufe helfen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Begründung für ein QE-Programm ist nicht eine etwaige Deflation, sondern die Entkoppelung der Inflationserwartungen. Das ist etwas völlig anderes. Wie viele andere Zentralbanken verfolgt auch die Europäische Zentralbank ein Inflationsziel, in unserem Fall von knapp unter zwei Prozent. Alle Indikatoren zeigen, dass die Inflationserwartungen 2014 deutlich nach unten gerutscht sind und nicht mehr bei zwei Prozent liegen. Das Ziel ist also die Rückführung der in der Bevölkerung erwarteten Inflation auf die EZB-Zielmarke von knapp zwei Prozent. Kann ein QE-Programm so etwas überhaupt leisten? Es gibt gute Argumente dafür und dagegen. // lots of headwind in europe and the world; against the hope that banks lend more money to companies and consumers ...
QE  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  deflation  deflationary  Europe  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  inflation  2015  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  system  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  zombi  banks 
january 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB unveils massive QE boost for eurozone
The European Central Bank (ECB) says it will inject at least €1.1 trillion into the ailing eurozone economy. The ECB will buy bonds worth €60bn per month until the end of September 2016 and possibly longer, in what is known as quantitative easing (QE). The ECB has also said eurozone interest rates are being held at the record low of 0.05%, where they have been since September 2014. ECB president Mario Draghi said the programme would begin in March. The eurozone is flagging and the ECB is seeking ways to stimulate spending. Mr Draghi said the programme would be conducted "until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation", which the ECB has pledged to maintain at close to 2%. + bit.ly/1GCvd40 &! bit.ly/1Ci5DgR &! bit.ly/1unR0lf &! bit.ly/1JnpsDm
ECB  QE  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  deflation  deflationary  recovery  Europe  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  GFC  deleveraging  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  Grexit  consumer  debt  private  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  household  debt  debt  restructuring  haircut  public  debt  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  fiat  currency  fiat  money  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  Japan  economic  history  global  economy  2015  faultlines  PIGS  output  gap  productivity  Euro  currency  war  NIRP  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  exit  strategy  MarioDraghi  Wall  Street 
january 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC News - 'Colossal' spending cuts to come, warns IFS
Current Austerity focus is running UK economy into the ground. Not towards the futures. Yes to cut waste. Yes to trim here and there. But there is no sight of investment into the future; ie pushing apprenticeships and industrial (STEM, research) practical skill set (dual college & university courses modelled after Germany), living wage, reduction on reliance on service sector and consumption. There is no inspiration. No future in his head. Just managing the status quo. Moving the pieces. Just like any other career politician. &! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30318870
austerity  George  Osborne  general  election  2015  UK  recovery  education  policy  Year  of  Code  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  industrial  policy  fairness  Gerechtigkeit  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  Toff  Establishment  No  Representation  Super  Rich  Privileged  1%  tax  free  income  disposable  income  productivity  output  gap  liquidity  trap  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  living  wage  working  poor  child  poverty  food  poverty  poverty  public  health  policy  public  health  sick  population  NHS  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  STEM  apprenticeships  un-college  education  bubble  Liberal  Arts  democracy  Democratic  Process  Career  Politicians  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  GFC  debtoverhang  deleveraging  flat  globalisation  globalization  competitive  competitiveness  comparative  advantage  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  war  for  talent 
december 2014 by asterisk2a
Autumn Statement 2014: Osborne's Cuts 'Will See Public Spending Fall To Lowest Level In 80 Years'
Tony Dolphin, senior economist at the Institute for Public Policy and Research, warned that Osborne's planned cuts were "implausible". "Given the scale of cuts in the public sector, [the OBR] can only make its growth forecast add up by assuming that consumer demand is boosted by households taking on more debt - and at an unprecedented pace. "Extraordinarily, the OBR thinks that by 2019 the household sector will have a financial deficit twice as big as in 2007 and 2008 when the financial crisis hit. As result, the household debt-to-income ratio is forecast 2 rise beyond its pre-crisis peak 2 over 180%. "This is pretty implausible. If the next government tries 2 follow the deficit reduction path set out in the Autumn Statement, it can only succeed in the short-term because the household sector takes on debt @ a faster pace than it did before the financial crisis. [this warning was heeded some years ago alrdy that consumer&corp would have to take on debt to spend to keep GDP # up!!!]
austerity  UK  George  Osborne  economic  history  David  Cameron  general  election  2015  fairness  Liberal  Democrats  Conservative  Party  Labour  Party  Super  Rich  1%  Privileged  Establishment  No  Representation  Toff  fiscal  policy  Democratic  Process  democracy  tax  free  income  Budget  Gerechtigkeit  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  compromise  Career  Politicians  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  recovery  GFC  Lohnzurückhaltung  working  poor  Services  Industry  service  economy  service  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  sticky  wages  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  minimum  wage  productivity  output  gap  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  Year  of  Code  industrial  policy  job  creation  disposable  income  Precariat  precarious  Zero  Hour  Contract  economics  market  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  GDP  economic  growth  zombie  corporations 
december 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Long, long slog to mend public finances
So the job of mending the public finances is a long way from over. The best performing, big developed economy in the world - that's us by the way, as assessed by speed of GDP growth - is generating far less tax than expected. So this year, the Office for Budget Responsibility expects the harvest for the Exchequer from taxation to be £7.8bn less than it predicted in March. And by 2017-18, it says the shortfall will be an eye-watering £21bn. & the biggest shortfall, roughly half of it, is in income tax, which reflects the creation of lots of new low wage jobs & the absence of meaningful pay rises for millions. [...] reflecting a change in the structure of the economy, rather than a passing phenomenon. [AUSTERITY] The OBR calculates that spending per head in real terms in 2019/20 on the public sector minus health and schools would be £1,290, or 57% less than in 2009/10. [... edu & industrial policy not straight ahead towards econ of the future ...] [in this together?] &! bbc.in/1tqUjGz
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december 2014 by asterisk2a
Anleihekäufe führen nicht zu Inflation: Kolumne von Wolfgang Münchau - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Wenn Sie sich jetzt die Anleihenkäufe der englischen oder der japanischen Zentralbank anschauen, dann ist genau das passiert, was ich gerade beschrieben habe. In beiden Fällen wurde die Geldbasis massiv erhöht. Die Geldmenge bewegte sich nicht. Warum kaufen Zentralbanken die Wertpapiere dann überhaupt? Sie hoffen auf indirekte Effekte, die am Ende einer langen Kette vielleicht doch auf die Geldmenge wirken. [...] Nur leider hat das in Japan zwei Jahrzehnte lang nicht funktioniert. Und bei uns bislang auch nicht. Dafür gibt es verschiedene Gründe: [...] [... overarching trend; a flattening of the curves (of disparity) across the world concerning economic ?pillars?: work type (more advanced work in the supplychain in china & not just labour intensive stuff only. more & more added value done in BRIC, East Europe, ...) #labourmarket, #consumption, #demographics, #edu, savings, social safety net, western style democracy et al) ... fall of Iron Curtain was beginning of process Angleichung]
liquidity  trap  Japan  BOJ  Fed  BOE  ECB  quantitative-easing  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  TARP  POMO  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  sovereign  debt  crisis  Richard  Koo  lost  decade  economic  history  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  business  investment  trust  trustagent  fiscal  policy  austerity  IMF  BIS  centralbanks  confidence  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  haircut  monetary  policy  monetary  system  fiat  currency  deflation  deflationary  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  faultlines  infrastructure  investment  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  competitive  competitiveness  China  BRIC  Frontier  Markets  Developing  global  trade  macroeconomics  microeconomics  labour  market  labour  economics  21stcentury  Software  Is  Eating  The  algorithm  Robotics  automation  Niedriglohnsektor  lohndumping  Lohnzurückhaltung  disposable  income  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
Thomas Mayer und sein Buch "Die neue Ordnung des Geldes" - SPIEGEL ONLINE
"Je mehr ich mich damit beschäftigte", erzählt er, "desto klarer wurde mir, dass das ein Problem im System ist." [...] "Wir haben die erste Runde der Krise bekämpft, aber wir kommen nicht mehr raus aus der Politik des billigen Geldes." [...] Gold ist für ihn ein "barbarischer Rohstoff", der im Modell der Österreichischen Schule eigentlich nur als Ersatz für das nötige Vertrauen der Bürger in eine Währung fungiere. Dennoch müsse die Geldmenge natürlich begrenzt werden. Den Banken und Staaten will Mayer deshalb jeden Zugriff auf die Schöpfung neuen Geldes entziehen. Er spricht von einem "Aktivgeldsystem".
book  GFC  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  BIS  IMF  Fed  academia  economic  history  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  LTRO  TLTRO  Bailout  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  unknown  unknowns  unknown  unkown  Debt  Super  Cycle  monetary  transmission  mechanism  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  trust  trustagent  confidence  fiat  currency  economic  model  economics  macroeconomics 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
IWF-Treffen in Washington: Kritik an Geldpolitik von Draghi - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In der Tat sind es nicht mehr die Deutschen allein, die auf die Gefahren der dauerhaft niedrigen Zinsen hinweisen. Auch anderswo bekommt man ob der Billiggeldschwemme ein mulmiges Gefühl. Auf den Finanzmärkten würden die Investoren teilweise sehr hohe Risiken eingehen, warnt etwa Claudio Borio, Chefökonom der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsgleich in Basel. In der Realwirtschaft, wo eigentlich investiert werden soll, seien die Unternehmen dagegen eher risikoscheu. Borio nennt das eine Störung im System. & bit.ly/1CdseYt
IMF  BIS  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  transmission  mechanism  distortion  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  trust  trustagent  business  confidence  confidence  consumer  confidence  liquidity  trap  ECB  BOE  Fed  MarioDraghi  Germany  PIGS  faultlines  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Impediments  working  poor  underemployed  squeezed  middle  class  Demand  and  Supply  Lohnzurückhaltung  deflation  deflationary  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Europe  France  Sick  man  of  Europe  infrastructure  investment  BRIC  MINT  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  Exportweltmeister  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  economic  history  globalization  globalisation  disposable  income  flat  ABS  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  UK  USA  lost  decade  lost  generation  Policy  Makers  education  fiscal  monetary  folly  error  complexity  unintended  consequences  academia  Taper  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  income  mobility  downward  mobility  social  mobility  inequality  Super  Rich  1%  Bailout  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  banking 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Alan Greenspan on what's wrong with the world economy - Newsnight - YouTube
secular  stagnation  alangreenspan  Alan  Greenspan  recovery  GFC  2014  ZIRP  liquidity  trap  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  austerity  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  Europe  PIGS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  Germany  policy  folly  policy  error  IMF  Makers  Pact  fiscal  stimulus  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  equity  bubble  Thomas  Piketty  book  Jens  Weidmann 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Germany recession fears - YouTube
Schwaches Wachstum: IWF warnt vor neuer Weltwirtschaftskrise. Der Internationale Währungsfonds hat seine Prognose für das weltweite Wirtschaftswachstum gekappt - und warnt vor einer neuen globalen Krise. Auch für Deutschland sieht der Fonds die Zukunft trüber und rät zum Geldausgeben. - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/iwf-warnt-vor-weltwirtschaftskrise-a-995868.html +!+!+!+ Staatsschulden: Streicht den Fiskalpakt - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/staatsschulden-warum-der-fiskalpakt-nicht-funktioniert-a-995597.html
IMF  Germany  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  China  BRIC  MINT  USA  UK  Europe  PIGS  IMG  austerity  recovery  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  Super  Cycle  Fiscal  Pact  Exportweltmeister  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  business  business  confidence  trust  trustagent  Policy  Makers  error  folly  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  ECB  ZIRP  liquidity  trap  NIRP  stagflation  secular  stagnation  stagnation  lost  decade  lost  generation  economic  history  Structural  Impediments  faultlines  France  deficit  imbalance  Ukrain  Ukraine  Russia  foreign  diplomacy  East  Europe  geopolitics  G  Zero  IBS  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  unintended  consequences  hunt  for  yield  Politics 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB: Draghi kündigt Aufkaufprogramm für Kredite an - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Mit dem Plan reagiert Draghi auf die schwache Wirtschaftslage in der Eurozone. Länder wie Italien, Spanien oder Griechenland kommen - wenn überhaupt - nur sehr langsam aus der Krise. Die dortigen Banken vergeben seit Jahren immer weniger Kredite. Und selbst in großen Ländern wie Frankreich und Deutschland stagnierte die Wirtschaftsleistung zuletzt. Ausdruck findet das auch in der Inflationsstatistik: Die Verbraucherpreise in der Eurozone steigen kaum noch - im September lag die jährliche Teuerungsrate gerade mal noch bei 0,3 Prozent. Um die Wirtschaft in Schwung zu halten, sollen die Preise nach Vorstellungen der EZB aber eher um knapp zwei Prozent pro Jahr steigen. Deshalb versuchen Draghi und seine Kollegen seit Monaten, die Kreditvergabe der Banken zu steigern, um so Wirtschaftswachstum und Preisentwicklung anzutreiben.
ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ABS  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  business  investment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  inflation  expectation  Europe  PIGS  NPL  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  IMF  France  Germany  trade  balance  2014  recovery  GFC  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  stagnation  Structural  Impediments  infrastructure  investment  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  inflation  fiscal  policy  Pact  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  distortion  unintended  consequences  complexity  asset  bubble 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Not that negative after all - YouTube
- nbdy is taking up the money to invest in his business (increase capacity, R&D, etc etc), becs there is no demand ... what is holding up the western world is the service economy - especially in UK and USA! - and then there is one particular structural impediment in Germany et al, demographic bubble.
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september 2014 by asterisk2a
ESM: Kreditprogramm ausgereizt - Nachfrage fehlt im Euro-Raum - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Bankenrettungsschirm ESM soll jetzt helfen, Unternehmen mit Krediten zu versorgen. Ein Vorschlag von beeindruckender Mutlosigkeit. Wesentlich wirksamer wäre es, das Geld per Hubschrauber über der Eurozone abzuwerfen. [...] Wäre es nicht besser, sich zunächst einmal zu fragen, welches Problem wir hier eigentlich lösen wollen? Ist Liquidität wirklich das Problem? Wohl kaum. Die Europäische Zentralbank legt dauernd neue Liquiditätsprogramme für den Bankensektor auf. Und was passiert? Die Banken wollen das Geld nicht und zahlen lieber die alten Kredite schnell zurück. Wenn Liquidität nicht mehr das Problem ist, wie soll dann ein Kreditprogramm helfen? [...] Firmen wollen keine Kredite, sie wollen Aufträge +!+!+!+ http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/18/ecbs-tltro-program-analysts-roundup/ +!+!+!+ ZIRP also never arrive for businesses.
ESM  TLTRO  LTRO  ABS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ECB  fiscal  policy  Pact  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  Europe  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Germany  zombie  banks  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  financial  repression  liquidity  trap  lost  decade  lost  generation  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  recovery  greatrecession  BRIC  MINT  Exportweltmeister  USA  UK  flat  world  secular  stagnation  stagnation  stagflation  economic  history  austerity  IMF  Richard  Koo  globalization  globalisation  uncertainty 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
David Blanchflower: Do not be fooled – growth and living standards under the Coalition have still been abysmal - David Blanchflower - Business Comment - The Independent
Over the entire six-year period [ 2009 - 2013] real earnings in the UK fell by 6.5 per cent, and by 5.9 per cent between 2010 and 2012, and only Greece (minus 23 per cent) was lower. Real earnings growth was positive over this entire period in France (+5 per cent); Germany (+4 per cent); Japan (+1 per cent) and the US (+1 per cent).
greatrecession  UK  GFC  output  gap  productivity  stagflation  secular  stagnation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  monetary  transmission  mechanism  property  bubble  indusrty  London  finance  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  lost  decade  lost  generation  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  No  Representation  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  living  standard  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  class  warfare  Toff  private  education  OECD  BOE  unconventional  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  education  policy  Public  economies  of  agglomeration  economic  history  Mark  Carney 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Wirtschaftskrise: Deutsche Wirtschaft mit starkem Export ist anfällig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Typischerweise produzieren dominante ökonomische Narrative zuerst Illusionen und dann große Probleme. Wo eine Geschichte von Marktteilnehmern, Regulierern und Beobachtern vorbehaltlos akzeptiert wird, ist der Boden bereitet für Irrtümer, die uns am Ende Kopf und Kragen kosten können, wie ich meinem neuen Buch argumentiere. >> Die Politik des billigen Geldes verzerrt die Wirtschaftsstrukturen .... - die deutsche Wirtschaft unterfinanziert & Dass die Politik des ultrabilligen Geldes die Wirtschaftsstrukturen verzerrt, auch hierzulande. [CreditCrunch/transmission mechanism broken/hunt for yield/betongold/no-investments] +++ die Digitalisierung auch die produktionslastige deutsche Wirtschaft fundamental durcheinanderwirbeln wird. [Year of Code/Education Policy/Human Capital - high ed imigrants/Mobile Creatives/Share Economy] +++ Spiegel 37/2014 "Deutschland der Scheinriese" Cover Story
GFC  bubble  property  bubble  bubbles  economic  history  economics  society  storytelling  narrative  journalism  journalismus  PIGS  UK  USA  Germany  Exportweltmeister  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  exports  export  Europe  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  competitiveness  competitive  competitive  advantage  comparative  advantage  2014  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Policy  Makers  error  folly  trust  trustagent  confidence  accountability  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  monetary  fiscal  LTRO  OMT  ABS  unconventional  monetary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  distortion  Wall  Street  centralbanks  IMF  IBS  liquidity  trap  creditcrunch  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  blackswan  Black  Swan  Betongold  Beton  Gold  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  Year  of  Code  education  Public  Policy  hunt  for  yield  human  capital  immigration  demographics  demographic  bubble  demography 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB cuts rates and launches stimulus programme
1-Day Before: http://youtu.be/_6D_xVeoIXs "ECB faces crunch on deflation threat" +++ The ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05%, and introduced new stimulus measures. The ECB had earlier cut its rate from 0.25% to 0.15% in June, and also became the first major central bank to introduce negative interest rates. It will also launch an asset purchase programme, which will buy debt products from banks. It is hoped this move will add liquidity to the financial system and revive lending. [...] "[A] last roll of the dice". "The ECB has now almost exhausted its ammunition for preventing the Eurozone sliding into a devastating deflationary, contractionary spiral," +++ Analysis: http://youtu.be/IErml4SmKmE "European banks – Work those ABS" +++ bit.ly/1A6pmLU - France and Friends: Merkel Increasingly Isolated on Austerity "Europe ... is threatened with lasting weak growth should the deficit rules continue to be strictly interpreted. [ BuBa demands higher wages, ECB fiscal stimulus ]."
ABS  OMT  LTRO  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  PIGS  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  IMF  Germany  BuBa  deflation  deflationary  communication  zombie  banks  confidence  trustagent  trust  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  policy  QE  bond  bubble  deleveraging  lost  decade  lost  generation  SME  SMB  Mittelstand  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  economic  history  debtoverhang  NPL  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  riskaversion  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  secular  stagnation  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  Career  Politicians  inflation  expectation  stagnation  Betongold  Beton  Gold  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  France  liberal  economic  reform  Stability  Pact  Italy  academics  academia  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  wage  growth  wage  inflation  fiscal  stimulus  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Sick  Man  of  Europe  infrastructure  investment  investment  business  investment  labor  market  reform  recovery 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Konjunktur in EU: Analyse des ersten Halbjahrs 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In anderen Euroländern dagegen ist die Lage bedenklich. Vor allem Frankreich und Italien, die nach Deutschland größten Volkswirtschaften des Währungsraums, haben große strukturelle Probleme. Und in Krisenstaaten wie Griechenland, Spanien und Portugal geht es dank schmerzhafter Spar- und Reformprogramme zwar inzwischen wieder leicht bergauf mit der Wirtschaft. Doch die Gefahr eines Rückfalls in die Krise ist noch immer groß. || http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/eurostat-inflation-in-euro-laendern-sinkt-auf-rekordtief-a-986068.html - Neue Zahlen von der europäischen Statistikbehörde Eurostat: Die Inflation in den 18 Ländern im Euroraum ist so niedrig wie seit fast fünf Jahren nicht mehr. Das Wirtschaftswachstum kommt zum Stillstand. || + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/bip-deutsche-wirtschaft-schrumpft-um-0-2-prozent-a-986028.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/diw-chef-fratzscher-hoehere-loehne-und-konjunktur-a-986124.html "Investitionen!"
France  Germany  PIGS  Eurpope  sovereign  debt  crisis  2014  stagflation  secular  stagnation  stagnation  ECB  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  creditcrunch  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  economic  history  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  deficit  budget  deficit  liberal  economic  reform  NPL  zombie  banks  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  austerity  faultlines  divergence  Super  Cycle  lost  generation  lost  decade  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  hunt  for  yield  infrastructure  investment  investment  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  haircut  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  public  debt  productivity  output  gap  corporatism  crony  capitalism  coward  risk  sentiment  risk  taking  creditrating  creditrisk  working  poor  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  social  mobility  income  mobility  inequality 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Gefahr durch Niedrigzinsen - YouTube
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  Wall  Street  bond  bubble  PIGS  Fed  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  BOE  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  Europe  UK  USA  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  risk  taking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  creditrisk  hunt  for  yield  deflation  deflationary  secular  stagnation  2014  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  Betongold  Beton  Gold  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  property  bubble  Germany  monetization  monetisation  NPL  IBS  zombie  banks  recovery  greatrecession  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  faultlines  output  gap  productivity 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Wachstum schwach wegen Innovationen und Investitionen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Währungsmanager stecken in einer unkomfortablen Lage: Die EZB erreicht das Ende ihrer Handlungsfähigkeit. Die kurzfristigen Zinsen hat sie bereits auf knapp über Null gesenkt, Einlagen bei der EZB werden sogar mit einer Strafgebühr geahndet. Mit ihrem neuen Programm zur zweckgebundenen Liquiditätsvergabe greift sie auch noch direkt ins Kreditgeschäft der Geschäftsbanken ein. Trotzdem erholt sich die Wirtschaft nur äußerst schleppend - mit dem Ausnahmefall DE. [...] Offenkundig befinden wir uns auf einem Abstellgleis der kapitalistischen Entwicklung. Derzeit ist die These von der "säkularen Stagnation" populär, von mehreren Dekaden mit niedrigem Wachstum, die vor uns liegen. Dazu scheinen die ultraniedrigen Zinsen in der EU, den USA und Japan zu passen. Aus diesem Blickwinkel zeigen langfristige Sätze nahe Null an, dass es kaum noch sinnvolle Investitionsmöglichkeiten gibt - dass zu wenige Unternehmen existieren, die ordentliche Renditen versprechen. [have to build pillars 4 future]
ECB  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  Germany  Europe  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  PIGS  BuBa  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  NPL  unknown  unknowns  complexity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  deleveraging  economic  history  USA  Japan  UK  Fed  BOE  productivity  output  gap  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  income  inequality  1%  Super  Rich  secular  stagnation  stagnation  deflation  deflationary  infrastructure  investment  investment  climate  change  Energiewende  knowledge  worker  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Silicon  Valley  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  education  policy  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Beton  Gold  Betongold  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  property  bubble  bond  bubble 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
DIW-Chef Fratzscher zu Banken-Stresstest, Lohnerhöhung - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Abhängigkeit zwischen Banken und Staaten hat in den letzten Jahren besorgniserregend zugenommen. Die berechtigte Sorge ist daher, dass Bankenrettungen die Staatshaushalte der hochverschuldeten Eurostaaten überfordert. Dann könnten wir leicht wieder in eine Krisensituation wie im Sommer 2012 geraten, als die Anleihezinsen für viele Eurostaaten drastisch nach oben geschossen sind. [...] Die größte Herausforderung für Europa ist, Wachstum zu schaffen. Nur durch ein deutlich stärkeres Wachstum kann es gelingen, dass die Unternehmen Beschäftigte einstellen, die Banken faule Kredite abbauen und die Staaten ihre Finanzen in Ordnung bringen. [...] [ +see end - Income Growth across the board in Germany Needed. Recent 2017 wage floor/minimum wage was overdue. Overdue. ]
GDP  Europe  zombie  banks  PIGS  NPL  non-performing  loan  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  Japan  economic  history  debt  jubilee  lost  decade  lost  generation  Super  Cycle  ECB  liquidity  trap  history  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  2014  infrastructure  investment  underemployed  structural  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  unemployment  Germany  France  faultlines  Impediments  structural  imbalance  structural  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  tradedeficit  trade  deficit  academia  academics  policy  error  policy  folly  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  QE  monetary  transmission  mechanism  deleveraging  Politics  Career  Politicians  ownership  accountability  transparency  Bundesbank  BuBa  income  growth  minimum  wage  wage  floor  coldprogression  kalte  Progression 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Live chart: The low countries - YouTube
Timothy Geithner says no risk of U.S. losing it's AAA credit rating - http://youtu.be/0HDCvqgxrrE || Geithner: Japan's 'Lost Decade' Not America's Fate - http://youtu.be/fax8BIPKcP8 "the hope it's gonna heal itself, to hope you can grow yourself out of it" growing your way out of it" || +!!! Timothy Geithner Fired Robert Shiller? http://youtu.be/bIwBEYoSqKY >> economics has no humans in it !!! no real world example. Conventional wisdom so strong. "We've got too scientific." And anybody who is 'flaky' gets pushed out [Robert Schiller]. >>Wenn du dich auf andere verlaesst, bist du verlassen.<< || Robert Shiller: Speculative Asset Prices - http://youtu.be/oBXPOWytDMs "present value". google.co.uk/search?q=present+value+Robert+Schiller || + Robert Shiller: Nobel Prize Winning Economist - http://youtu.be/ABvtKGrIDUs "it can't be an exact science (forecasting) because of the complexity, mass data; uncertain, certain, and data that can't be put in numbers, storystelling -> feedback loops ...
bond  bubble  Japan  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  hunt  for  yield  lost  decade  lost  generation  deflation  deflationary  liquidity  trap  financial  repression  economic  history  Tim  Geithner  Timothy  Geithner  austerity  balance  sheet  recession  Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  creditrating  creditrisk  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  Super  Cycle  debt  jubilee  GFC  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  toobigtofail  TBTF  systemrelevanz  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  sovereignty  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  Thomas  Piketty  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  savings  glut  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  GDP  economic  model  Robert  Skidelsky  Robert  Reich  Paul  Krugman  consumer  debt  public  debt  debt  restructuring  household  debt  zombie  banks  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  BuBa  leadership  Democratic  Process  democracy  trust  trustagent  confidence  greatrecession  greatdepression  history  evolution  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  Software  Is  Eating  skill-biased  techn 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Kreditklemme trotz EZB-Programmen: Die Banken sind unschuldig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Milan und Sufi sind nicht die ersten, die auf diese Idee kamen. Richard Koo aus Japan entwickelte schon in den neunziger Jahre die These von einer Bilanz-Rezession. Wenn Länder, Firmen und Haushalte überschuldet sind, dann wollen sie sich einfach nur noch entschulden, egal wie günstig die Kredite sind. Koo warnte davor, dass alle gleichzeitig die Schulden abbauen. In Japan hörte man auf ihn. Dort entschuldeten sich die Firmen und die Haushalte, und es verschuldete sich der Staat. In Europa bauen alle ihre Schulden gleichzeitig ab: Staat, Unternehmen, Haushalte. Koo glaubt daher auch, dass wir in eine weit schlimmere Lage geraten werden als Japan. Wir sind auf Deflation programmiert. Koos Thesen sind plausibel. Sie sind aber keine fundierte ökonomische Analyse. Genau das haben jetzt Milan und Sufi geliefert - zumindest für die USA. Wenn sich diese Ergebnisse auch bei uns bestätigen sollten, dann hieße das: Wir machen in Europa so ziemlich alles falsch.
Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  Japan  deflation  deflationary  USA  UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  economic  history  GFC  sovereign  crisis  consumer  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  QE  monetization  monetisation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  monetary  transmission  mechanism  service  deleveraging  2014  recovery  greatrecession  greatdepression  Europe  PIGS  Neuverschuldung  Germany  austerity  IMF  book  lost  generation  lost  decade  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Zinsentscheid der EZB: Draghi plant Minus vor Zinssatz - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Schon immer ließ sich das Ende eines Systems besonders schwer erkennen, wenn man Teil des Systems ist. Im Jahre sieben nach Ausbruch der Finanzkrise ist es langsam Zeit für die Frage: Was, wenn die vermeintliche Ausnahme in Wahrheit die Regel ist? Wenn es sich bei der Kombination aus niedrigen Zinsen, niedrigem Wachstum und niedriger Inflation, die weite Teile Europa seit 2008 ebenso im Griff hält wie die USA und Japan, um die neue Normalität handelt? Wenn das seit Jahrzehnten praktizierte westliche Wirtschaftsmodell, sich immer niedrigere Wachstumsraten mit immer höheren Staatsschulden zu erkaufen, an seinem Schlusspunkt angelangt ist? +++ http://bit.ly/SxhnZq "Nicht Europa ist am Ende - sondern der Kapitalismus, so wie wir ihn kennen. [...] Im angelsächsischen Finanzkapitalismus wachsen die Vermögen der Reichen und stagnieren die Einkommen der anderen." [...] [EU Election Result is a vote] gegen das ungerechte Wirtschaftssystem, das ihre Lebensgrundlage gefährdet.
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB senkt Leitzins und beschließt Minuszinsen für Banken - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat ihren Leitzins auf ein Rekordtief gesenkt und erstmals einen negativen Einlagensatz beschlossen. Angesichts der zuletzt sehr niedrigen Inflationsrate wird der Zins, zu dem sich die Geschäftsbanken bei der Notenbank Geld leihen können, um 0,10 Punkte auf 0,15 Prozent gesenkt, wie die EZB am Donnerstag nach ihrer Ratssitzung in Frankfurt mitteilte. Der Einlagensatz, zu dem Banken kurzfristig Geld bei der Notenbank parken können, wird erstmals in den negativen Bereich gedrückt. Er sinkt von bisher null Prozent auf minus 0,10 Prozent. Der Zins für kurzfristige Ausleihungen bei der Notenbank vermindert sich von 0,75 auf 0,40 Prozent. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-entscheidung-kredite-und-senkung-des-leitzins-a-973657.html ""Die Banken leiden nicht unter vermeintlich zu hohen Notenbankzinsen, sondern unter dem hohen Bestand fauler Kredite, an dem Negativzinsen nichts ändern." + !! http://youtu.be/kKO_yxP3dyQ !!
deflation  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  ECB  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  2014  ZIRP  OMT  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  deposit  levy  New  Normal  financial  repression  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  Europe  Germany  faultlines  recovery  policy  error  policy  folly  Makers  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  GFC  lost  decade  lost  generation  long-term  unemployment  banking  union  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  2015  NPL  non-performing  loan  economic  history  LTRO  assetbackedsecurities  Sterilization 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Dax knackt 10.000 Punkte: Rekord wegen billigen Gelds von EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Erstmals überspringt der Dax die Marke von 10.000 Punkten. Das beweist erneut, wie sehr der deutsche Leitindex vom billigen Geld der Notenbank abhängig ist - und wie schnell die gute Stimmung an der Börse vorbei sein kann. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/dax-steigt-ueber-10-000-punkte-auf-neuen-rekordstand-a-972849.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/geldanlage-bei-niedrigzinsen-gold-immobilien-einen-jaguar-a-973671.html ""Wohin also jetzt mit den Ersparnissen?"" +++ Spekulationsblasen: Wirtschaftsweiser warnt vor Gefahren der Niedrigzinsen - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ezb-wirtschaftsweiser-wieland-warnt-vor-spekulationsblasen-a-975400.html +++ Niedrigzinsen: Schäuble befürchtet Immobilienblase in Deutschland - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/zinsen-schaeuble-befuerchtet-immobilienblase-in-deutschland-a-976154.html
asset  bubble  Betongold  Beton  Gold  ZIRP  QE  OMT  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  asset  allocation  property  bubble  London  PIGS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity-trap  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  hunt  for  yield  New  Normal  financial  repression  2014  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  banking  union  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  macroprudential  policy  Politics  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  austerity  fiscal  policy  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  faultlines  imbalance  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  lost  decade  lost  generation  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  Wolfgang  Schäuble 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Bond Yields Lowest Since Napoleon Are No Comfort to Europe Amid Deflation Fight - Businessweek
Germany issued 5yr bond with a yield of .45%, last year same type of issue was arount the .3% mark. OUCH, way below inflation. - "" “The outright level of yields is suggesting an incredibly weak outlook for growth,” “It’s a powerful signal telling you policy is too tight and that there’s complacency toward the risks. Not a great deal has been solved. We’ve still got bank stress tests to come, too low growth and too low inflation.” ""
deflation  deflationary  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Super  Cycle  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  unemployment  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  OMT  QE  economic  history  recovery  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  2014  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  fiscal  policy  Career  Politicians  Politics  Germany 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
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