asterisk2a + servitude   80

The ten graphs which show how Britain became a wholly owned subsidiary of the City of London (and what we can do about it) – New thinking for the British economy
[ uk banks overinvested enabled by political policy into houses and high streets. underinvested in productive capital like R&D companies in general etc ] >> But it doesn’t increase the productive capacity of the economy one iota: a more expensive house doesn’t produce more intelligent children, and a higher share price doesn’t boost a company’s productivity (though it can indirectly boost its capacity to raise funds for investment). [...] Debt-financed asset purchases are thus fundamentally a Ponzi activity: // not just tight housing supply is increasing prices, but also easy credit/debt/mortgage market! // [...] ultimately, there is a limit to just how much debt individuals and corporations can take on – even with low interest rates
UK  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  housing  market  mortgage  household  consumer  debt  disposable  income  servitude  GFC  recovery  wage  growth  Ponzi  asset  capital  Kapital  BOE  credit  card  affordable  social  servicing  default  rate  insolvency  speculation  unintended  consequences  economic  history  consumption  secular  stagnation  Brexit  policy  fiscal  monetary  Mark  Carney  underinvestment  productivity  R&D  Career  Politicians  Margaret  Thatcher 
may 2017 by asterisk2a
Universities announce fees above £9,000 limit
Universities in England are already announcing a tuition fee increase above the £9,000 limit before Parliament has even finished debating plans which would pave the way to raise fees.
University  tuition  fee  Conservative  Party  Tories  nasty  Justine  Greening  Nicky  Morgan  Michael  Gove  Theresa  May  David  Cameron  Nick  Clegg  Liberal  Democrats  UK  student  debt  Loan  Bubble  StudentLoans  student  student  loans  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  debt  servitude 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Andrew Mazzone Interviews James K. Galbraith
banks like property! more likely to lend to finance property than SME/SMB investment. because that investment is not propped up by the government. [...] min 6 subprime & credit bubble since 80's << behaviour of lenders [...] sensible people were given fraudulent debt instruments (no self-regulation, and regulators failed). [...] no prosecution because people who should have prosecuted those, didn't want to ruin their private future career. [...] min 15 - inequality and unemployment driven by inequality. [...] austerity is name of the game by the "establishment" - 20% of society that benefited from the bank bailout and reflation policy by central banks - [...] 19:15 - who do banks want to borrow in this environment?! austerity, aggregate demand shortfall, lack of confidence, volatility, uncertainty, credit bubble pain (liquidity trap) etc. [...] Solution ("an alternative way to the status quo, who made this mess): Fix Income Distribution thus Purchasing Power (aggregate demand, ie minimum wage), and restructure finance away from investment banking and speculation and derivatives towards real economy (ie tax heavily what is not real economy business) //&! James K. Galbraith on "Inequality and Instability: What's Ahead for the World Economy" - youtu.be/Mw4Bd9ols-E //&! James K. Galbraith - "The End of Normal" - youtu.be/PGFcB65l8Io
Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  1%  10%  20%  Super  Rich  property  bubble  London  rentier  rent-seeking  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  secular  stagnation  western  world  UK  USA  European  Union  deflation  deflationary  JAMESGALBRAITH  book  James  Kenneth  Galbraith  credit  bubble  credit  card  credit  card  debt  credit  boom  debt  servitude  speculation  speculative  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  austerity  Raghuram  Rajan  self-regulation  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  subprime  Wall  Street  regulation  regulators  Career  Politicians  politician  No  Representation  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  liquidity  trap  retail  banking  investment  banking  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  inequality 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Tyler Cowen: "The Great Stagnation", Michael Vassar & Cowen Debate at Singularity Summit 2011
gains are harder to come by! low hanging fruit gone. [...] VISION IS NEEDED TO GET THE JOB DONE.
secular  stagnation  western  world  underinvestment  R&D  R&D  innovation  Innovators  Dilemma  rentier  rent-seeking  oligopol  oligopoly  winner  take  all  babyboomers  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  austerity  triple-lock  pension  pension  obligation  recovery  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  No  Representation  lobby  Career  Politicians  OAP  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  sick  population  health  crisis  economic  damage  climate  crisis  climate  change  global  warming  productivity  gap  output  gap  GDP  measurement  GNP  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  BRIC  creative  destruction  Mobile  Debt  Super  Cycle  servitude  servicing  service  income  tax  receipts  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Moore's  Law  COP21  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  OECD  IMF  crony  capitalism  Privileged  Establishment  shareholder  capitalism  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  shareholder  value  revolving  door  Wall  Street  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  disposable  income  trickle-down  economics  neoliberal  neoliberalism  discretionary  spending  renewable  energy  infrastructure  investment  Smart  Grid  AI  artificial  intelligence  augmented  intelligence  Autonomous  Cars  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  New  stagnation 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Brexit referendum could destabilise UK recovery, says IMF | Business | The Guardian
[ putting investment decisions and plans on hold! ] Christine Lagarde warns that uncertainty over outcome ‘will be bad in and of itself’ in months leading up to vote [...] But the IMF’s annual health check said “the relatively positive outlook is subject to risks and uncertainties”, including a global slowdown, sluggish productivity growth, a large trade deficit, still-high levels of household debt, and the forthcoming referendum on EU membership. It said any sign of weakness in growth should be met with higher spending by the Treasury. The UK authorities should explore “both revenue and expenditure measures, while protecting spending in priority areas, including healthcare, education, and infrastructure”. The report emphasised that “flexibility in the fiscal framework should be used to modify the pace of adjustment in the event of weaker demand growth”. [ moderates and politicians, wisely worded! no instructions. no direct criticism. ]
Brexit  austerity  household  debt  consumer  debt  property  bubble  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  IMF  OECD  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  trade  deficit  UK  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  fiscal  policy  industrial  policy  labour  market  underinvestment  education  policy  NHS  child  poverty  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  recovery  2016  general  election  2015  budget  deficit  election  campaign  promises  Manifesto  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  labour  economics  Zero  Hour  Contract  part-time  minimum  wage  tax  credit  Contractor  self-employment  low  pay  Precariat  working  poor  low  income  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  debt  servitude  monetary  policy  fiscal  stimulus  Pact  Schuldenbremse  general  election  2020 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Interview With Mohamed El-Erian: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View
7:50 New Normal is secular stagnation and decades-long NIRP, ZIRP, QE distortion. structural, secular. no cyclical recovery. but long secular challenges; prolonged period of low growth. // also inequality! // currently policy makers subsidise debtors, subsidise creditors - financial repression. promote risk taking. // richard koo would not agree with el-erian's notion that gov balance sheets are same as household balance sheets. // 12:10 demographic issue! political. and economic elements in it of secular stagnation. [...] borrowing growth // rise of far-right! // corps sitting on cash // inequality! // bc of lived in artificial world of borrowed growth, created massive divergence. // min 15:30 richard koo would not agree that central banks are the only game in town. central banks have complained abt austerity gov. // min 20 - Feds intellectually inflexible. comfort zone. self-regulation & great moderation. // reflation didnt work bc no fixed fundamentals // perfect storm! lost trust.
New  Normal  financial  repression  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  secular  stagnation  GFC  credit  bubble  book  western  world  emerging  middle  class  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Paul  Krugman  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Joseph  Stiglitz  distortion  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  system  retirement  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  far-right  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Pact  Schuldenbremse  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  reflate  reflation  trust  trustagent  distrust  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  public  sentiment  public  perception  bank  bailout  Japan  Abenomics  AIIB  IMF  China  BRIC  self-regulation  Great  Moderation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
From Ticker - S&P: QE is driving inequality between the generations
Quantitative easing (QE) stabilized the economy but also exacerbated wealth disparity between rich and poor, mainly by boosting financial asset prices and house prices. //&! [ LOW PAY MINIMUM WAGE JOB CREATION ] During the U.K.’s recent “jobs-rich, pay-poor” economic recovery, strong employment gains were accompanied by a further rise of already high wage dispersion and an ever-growing share of part-time employment in lower income groups. //&! In the context of the tight housing market, low interest rates and QE are among the drivers behind the widening wealth and income gap between younger and older generations and between those on the housing ladder and those not on it. //&! Inequality is damaging! // bit.ly/1QtauyZ - Bank of England's recovery policies have increased inequality, finds S&P [...] spending too much on rent, not able to save for deposit! //&! bit.ly/1PPyEYl &! ti.me/1sbBtrz
QE  inequality  reflate  reflation  distortion  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  bank  bailout  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  ECB  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  Housing  Crisis  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  budget  deficit  austerity  George  Osborne  income  distribution  poverty  trap  tax  credit  low  pay  low  income  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  part-time  Tories  nasty  party  homeless  homelessness  social  affordable  Conservative  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  Funding  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  economic  history 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What's holding back the world economy? | Business | The Guardian
[ continued financialisation of economy / faustian pact ] QE and low interest rates have disproportionately created wealth in the financial sector and inflated asset bubbles. It has done little for the real economy. The rules of the market need to be rewritten [...] dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse. In the US, quantitative easing did not boost consumption and investment partly because most of the additional liquidity returned to central banks’ coffers in the form of excess reserves. [...] private investment did not grow [...] [ QE supported only financial sector and zombie banks and corporations, little to nothing went into the real economy for investment in western world ] [ which leads us to say we are still in a banking crisis per se ]
Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  austerity  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  Student  Bubble  loan  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  wage  stagnation  income  growth  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  mortgage  market  NPL  debt  servitude  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  inequality  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  asset  equity  VIX  volatility  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  aggregate  demand  income  redistribution  repo  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  financial  market  GFC  banking  crisis  retail  banking  investment  banking  hot-money  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  BRIC  rent-seeking  rentier  carbon  tax  economic  damage 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
UK trade deficit widens further as exports suffer | Business | The Guardian
Nevertheless, the UK’s goods trade gap with the rest of the world widened by £1.9bn to a record high of £125bn in 2015. Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: “UK exports have clearly struggled in recent months, as they have been hampered by sterling’s overall strength in 2015, particularly against the euro, and moderate global demand. [...] Recent declines in the value of sterling are expected to support exports sales, though the deteriorating global situation could mitigate against an improved exchange rate. [...] “Nonetheless, any progress in reducing the trade deficit is likely to be extremely slow in the near term, leaving the recovery reliant on domestic demand.” [...] [ you can lower your corp tax, but if your country is shitty in business environment ie infrastructure and employee qualifications and immigration ... nobody wants to do business ]
UK  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  budget  deficit  tax  reciepts  2015  2016  recovery  secular  stagnation  underinvestment  business  investment  austerity  economic  history  global  economy  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  foreign  direct  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  Student  Bubble  debt  servitude  discretionary  spending  government  spending  disposable  income  generation  rent  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BOE  property  Housing  Crisis  George  Osborne  competitiveness  productivity  output  gap  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  corporate  tax  rate  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  immigration  migration  Super  Cycle 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
'Panic situation': Asian stocks tumble amid fears of new global recession | Business | The Guardian
central banks have few avenues left to explore to encourage investment and boost growth. Talk of an impending recession in the US, however, is creating speculation among investors that the federal reserve will put on hold its attempts to normalise rates. “The ‘fear factor’ in markets has morphed from being about an emerging market hard-landing and collapsing oil prices to being about the extent of the slowdown in the developed world and the ability of central banks to reflate asset values yet again,” said analysts at Citi in a note. //&! Yield on Japan's 10-year bonds falls below zero - bit.ly/1Leu3JC - Germany, France and the Netherlands are among the countries to see their bonds soar in value, though Switzerland (not in the G7) is the only other country to see demand outstrip supply to such an extent that the yield has dropped below zero. Bonds worth about $7tn (£4.8tn) now have a negative yield rate. //&! BOE Taper expectations go out the window till 2020 - bit.ly/1SdxUhN
global  economy  2016  secular  stagnation  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Taper  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  liquidity  trap  western  world  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Oil  price  emerging  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  USA  UK  Europe  economic  history  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  credit  reflate  reflation  VIX  volatility  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  distortion  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  IMF  OECD  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  bond  bubble  Fed  BOE  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
As growth falters, Osborne hopes Mark Carney can keep a lid on interest rates | Business | The Guardian
The chancellor faces lower GDP and lower tax receipts as a result. So it’s vital that consumers’ desire to keep spending isn’t hit by a nasty shock from the Bank [ // Confidence Fairy // ] The Bank of England has downgraded its forecasts for the UK’s GDP growth and the outlook for wages, most likely robbing the exchequer of vital income tax receipts. And without the funds to maintain pensions and health service spending, his critics will gleefully play back the speech from last November during which he declared that Britain was on the road to becoming “the most prosperous and secure of all the major nations of the world”. [...] Yet his words ring hollow when so many of the post-crash problems are still with us, from the burden of high private and public debts to Europe’s rapidly ageing population, which encourage saving over investment, and a reluctance from government and big business to boost capital spending.
George  Osborne  secular  stagnation  2016  2015  Mark  Carney  BOE  consumer  debt  household  debt  mortgage  market  subprime  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  UK  GDP  output  gap  productivity  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  economic  history  austerity  underinvestment  business  investment  public  investment  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  Paul  Krugman  David  Cameron  nasty  party  Conservative  Tories  short-termism  credit  bubble  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Funding  1%  financial  repression  New  Normal  constituency  babyboomers  oligarchy  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  income  inequality  plutocracy  Super  Rich  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  income  growth  low  pay  low  income  wage  growth  economic  growth  precarious  work  Precariat  tax  credit  tax  free  income  corporate  tax  rate  minimum  wage  budget2015  Food  Bank  foreign  direct  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  demographic  bubble  western  world  USA  European  Union  ageing  population  CapEx  Capital  Expenditure  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
More Evidence Supporting the House of Debt | House of Debt
Many have argued that we overstate the importance of housing and household debt in explaining the Great Recession and weak recovery. They point to the banking crisis, policy uncertainty, or excessive regulation as equally or even more important. The data released today by the BEA show pretty clearly that the arguments we make in House of Debt remain relevant for thinking about economic weakness today. In our view, the explanation we provide is the most consistent with the striking difference in consumption across states. // From Comments: Without real median income rising you can’t grow in an economy based on debt expansion
secular  stagnation  consumer  debt  mortgage  market  household  debt  USA  UK  recovery  GFC  credit  card  debt  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  book  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumerist  consumerism  zombie  consumer  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  negative  equity  job  creation  precarious  work  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  Service  Sector  Jobs  job-creation  squeezed  middle  class  Elizabeth  Warren  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  mobility  social  mobility  American  Dream  post-racial  America  Joseph  Stiglitz  Thomas  Piketty  Paul  Krugman  part-time  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  income  growth  income  inequality  economic  history  Super  Rich  1%  austerity  oligarchy  plutocracy  fiscal  stimulus  budget  deficit  corporate  welfare  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  corporate  tax  rate  subsidies  subsidizing  welfare  state  social  safety  net  western  world  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Chicago  School  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Masters in Business: Nobel-Prize Economist Paul Krugman (Audio) by Bloomberg View
// most times conviction is lacking, trapped in the bubble, no non-conformity, too much of a comfortable life. // 28:30! Confidence Fairy >> austerity from 2010! vested interest plays big role! Policy Makers are on the side of credit, on bond holders. bond holders don't like inflationary period! ... Hyperinflation will come any day! // 31:00 econ needs to be reformulated in class rooms to be much broader subject! << see robert shiller interview! ie behaviour, sociology and psychology, irrational behaviour // 44:15 on keynes! was no left wing socialist, he tried to save capitalism! he had world changing analysis! sometimes there can not be enough demand, same with sometimes it is good to have waste vs nothing, pointless ways to spend money can have a positive effect. ie infrastructure investment - repaving roads = less private repair bills! public transportation = less drunk driving accidents. history shows fiscal stimulus gets always too early withdrawn from deficit hawks!
economic  history  GFC  Paul  Krugman  Thomas  Piketty  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  paulkrugman  repo  bankrun  speculative  bubbles  subprime  Generationengerechtigkeit  Policy  Makers  constituency  George  Osborne  austerity  error  folly  credit  bubble  secular  stagnation  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Japan  Abenomics  fiscal  monetary  Richard  Koo  KennethRogoff  USA  UK  European  Union  lost  decade  lost  generation  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  book  miltonfriedman  friedmann  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  budget  deficit  GeorgeOsborne  fiscal  stimulus  GordonBrown  underinvestment  recovery  productivity  output  gap  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  infrastructure  investment  Richardkoo  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  short-termism  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  trickle-down  economics  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  social  democracy  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Nasty Gal Layoffs Hit 10 Percent of Staff | Re/code
Online fashion retailer Nasty Gal has laid off 10 percent of its staff, as the purveyor of edgy women’s clothing cuts costs amid an uncertain financing and retail environment. CEO Sheree Waterson told the company in an email that the cuts were necessary as the “market in which we operate is changing, both in retail broadly and apparel specifically.” Nineteen employees across several departments were let go. Nasty Gal also laid off some staff in 2014. The layoffs underscore the difficulty mature e-commerce startups can encounter as they transition from being a hot new brand to the long slog of building a more traditional retail business. In short, building a retail brand is really hard and technology can only afford you so many shortcuts along the way. Online beauty brand BirchBox announced layoffs of 15 percent of its staff last week, as startups in e-commerce tighten belts as investors become more wary of unprofitable growth.
Nasty  Gal  Branding  Brand  e-commerce  Retail  pure  play  Amazon  brick  and  mortar  business  squeezed  middle  class  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  USA  consumption  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  low  pay  low  income  Precariat  precarious  work  eBay  zombie  consumer  Primark  status  symbol  status  anxiety  consumerist  consumerism  secular  stagnation  debt  servitude  retirement  pension  scheme  401k  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  reflate  reflation  economic  history  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  emerging  middle  class  western  world  credit  BRIC  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Christine Lagarde: Housing is key issue for security of UK economy - BBC News
The UK's recent growth, employment progress and deficit reduction have been "strong", the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said. Underlying economic vulnerabilities, including the supply and demand for housing, have been addressed and steady growth looks set to continue, it said. The IMF's Christine Lagarde said there were still some risks.
UK  Housing  Crisis  property  bubble  generation  rent  speculative  bubbles  Buy  to  macroprudential  policy  fiscal  policy  planning  law  monetary  policy  mortgage  market  austerity  budget  deficit  neoliberalism  IMF  OECD  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  economic  history  ChristineLagarde  Privatisation  affordable  social  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  minimum  wage  low  income  Zero  Hour  Contract  part-time  Contractor  recovery  productivity  output  gap  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Amid market turmoil and confusion, there are four key economic trends shaping society
The UK economy currently gets nowhere near its target of 2%. Inflation would decrease the value of current debts, making them less of a burden. In a world without much inflation, it is hard to get wages up. The worse case scenario is that debt costs increase, as prices and wages stagnate. [ ignoring debt and income growth - stagnation at their peril - youtu.be/KIaXVntqlUE - gov is no household budget, Steve Keen + Richard Koo ] [...] And in this age of austerity, these factors will work against governments seeking to reduce the welfare bill. Recent data shows that, in UK cities, growing numbers of low paid jobs have led to rising claims for welfare such as housing benefits, defeating the government’s aims to reduce spending.
economic  history  secular  stagnation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  inflation  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  minimum  wage  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  tax  credit  housing  benefit  working  tax  credit  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  western  world  GDP  wage  inflation  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  inequality  income  inequality  income  redistribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  monetary  system  monetary  theory  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  banks  monetary  velocity  Niall  Ferguson  NPL  junk  bond  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  China  credit  BRIC  output  gap  productivity  industrial  policy  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  property  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  money  supply  faultlines  global  imbalances  recovery  working  poor  Precariat 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
James Galbraith, Kate Pickett, Branko Milanovic - Consequences of Inequality and Wealth Distribution - YouTube
free education / land value tax / higher inheritance tax / abolition of private education / more progressive taxation / combat tax avoidance and tax evasion / ... Universal Basic Income //&! New Theoretical Perspectives on the Distribution of Income and Wealth Among Individuals - youtu.be/RO8KWTb2iPM - w Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman --- distinguishing between wealth and capital. ignore land (free yourself from Ricardo). land. credit. //&! David Cay Johnston: The Perils Of Our Growing Inequality - David Cay Johnston about his new book, Divided: The Perils of Our Growing Inequality. - youtu.be/ok7ZJ8mS19Y
inequality  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  education  policy  income  distribution  income  redistribution  tax  free  income  income  mobility  social  mobility  health  inequality  gender  inequality  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  welfare  state  social  safety  net  progressive  tax  code  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  social  democracy  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  democracy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Universal  Basic  inheritance  tax  financial  literacy  wealth  distribution  wealth-distribution  transferring-wealth  Thomas  Piketty  Joseph  Stiglitz  Robert  Reich  squeezed  middle  class  globalization  globalisation  Paul  Krugman  Elizabeth  Warren  austerity  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  fiscal  policy  economic  growth  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  credit  bubble  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  household  debt  Student  Loan  debt  debt  credit  card  debt  credit  card  economic  history  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  competitiveness  productivity  knowledge  worker  book  monopoly  oligopoly  oligopol  American  Dream  meritocracy  meritocratic  post-racial  America  free  market  freemarkets  dogma  ideology 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
SPERI Annual Lecture 2015: 'The Failure of Austerity' by Lord Robert Skidelsky - YouTube
economic history - "state spending inherently unproductive." // borrowing is deferred taxation - David Richardo - Rational expectations. Market economy always tended full employment. // Theory and Facts did not align. Keynes realised it post-war. Private investment is inherently volatile, ie slump conditions. state to offset underinvestment of private sector and match their retreat. getting rid of abnormal unemployment. done through monetary expansion (QE) and put onto state balance sheet available to spend. // Where 2009 forward QE got to banks ... // Paul Krugman - Confidence Fairy. // "Look after employment, and the budget will look after itself." but today it's the bond holders confidence who shapes budgets. // Keynes 'it is the long-term confidence of businesses that shape investment, confidence in state to no let a slump happen again.' but austerity, out of ammo talk, political-, social environment/sentiment & Osborne's '2016 will be tough year' speech were counter-productive.
austerity  economic  history  Robert  Skidelsky  Richard  Koo  David  Ricardo  sovereign  debt  crisis  underinvestment  productive  investment  competitiveness  competitive  public  utility  public  investment  education  policy  public  transportation  Good  infrastructure  investment  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  George  Osborne  trickle-down  economics  tax  code  progressive  taxation  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Chicago  School  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Pact  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Schuldenbremse  western  world  Paul  Krugman  political  folly  political  theory  political  economy  political  error  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  financial  cycle  Greed  economic  cycle  inflation  expectation  expectations  Super  debt  servitude  GFC  recovery  Conservative  Party  fearmongering  Fear  Career  Politicians  nasty  David  Cameron  PR  spin  doctor 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Why is the pound falling so sharply? - BBC News
Weak economic data is casting doubt on the future performance of the UK economy, with inflation persistently well below the Bank of England's 2% target and earnings growth slowing down from a six-year high. Earlier this month, figures for November showed that UK industrial output had suffered its sharpest decline since 2013. Looking further ahead, investors are worried about the outcome of a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU. As Andy Scott of foreign exchange services firm HiFX put it: "Concerns over the UK economy and the risk of a Brexit look likely to continue to haunt sterling." Traders are also generally more risk-averse in the light of the global turmoil caused by Chinese market problems and falling oil prices, which makes them reluctant to buck sterling's downward trend.
UK  BOE  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  debtoverhang  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  industrial  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  MPC  energy  policy  energy  price  competitive  competitiveness  STEM  underinvestment  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  corporate  tax  rate  subsidies  subsidizing  secular  stagnation  immigration  migration  job  creation  low  income  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  London  Scottish  Independence  Scottish  referendum  Devolution  Brexit  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  global  economy  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  student  debt  baddebt  NPL  private  debt  economic  history  Niall  Ferguson  democracy  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  precarious  work  Contractor  low  pay  minimum  wage  George  Osborne  Tories  dogma  ideology  Conservative  Party  neoliberal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Meet the Renegades Steve Keen - YouTube
[ chicago school of economics ] 17:25 - private debt // demand will never be again so starong as before GFC. growth of debt/credit is normal. but without growth and high debt is cancer. + current account deficit/trade deficit = means things for UK can not go in indefinitely. austerity will run its course, will not make things better. next is property bubble! and NPL as normalisation to 2% nears // China margin trading & leverage via credit bubble. property bubble. // 24:20 - there is still room to grow household/private debt. Tories treat gov budget like a household rather than a bank! UK will stumble along at lower rate than America. Will not get better! Just rearranging deck chairs of a painfully slowly sinking ship.
secular  stagnation  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  UK  USA  Japan  economic  history  car  loan  GFC  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  consumer  confidence  junk  bond  NPL  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  student  debt  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  mortgage  market  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  austerity  dogma  neoclassical  economics  book  ideology  margin  trading  leverage  western  world  Hegemony  China  Super  Cycle 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
BBC Documentary - The Money Trap - How Banks Control the World Through Debt - YouTube
most profitable credit card debt customers are those making just the minimum payment. ... a credit card being a statement of status! retaining customers by upgrading them regularly w higher limits, new colors, new perks (they will never use). // unsecured lending - DEFINITION of 'Unsecured Loan' A loan that is issued and supported only by the borrower's creditworthiness, rather than by a type of collateral. An unsecured loan is one that is obtained without the use of property as collateral for the loan. // revolving debt // the higher your credit limit, the more you are likely to spend. // half of his income to just serve credit card fees and interest charges (no payments towards paying down) debt ... // banks lend irresponsibly bc they know they can get away with it, or somebody else will do it! because there is not regulation. no bank oversight. //&! The Truth about Payday Loans :Young, British and Broke - youtu.be/-yWxTvffbuE //&! Gambling/Betting Shops on Highstreet.
retail  banking  investment  banking  CDO  CDS  subprime  credit  card  debt  credit  card  financial  literacy  household  debt  mortgage  market  Payday  Loans  exploitation  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Bubble  property  ethics  moral  beliefs  revolving  debt  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  debt  Super  Cycle  student  debt  private  debt  status  symbol  instant  gratification  status  anxiety  socioeconomic  status  zombie  consumer  consumerist  consumerism  Protection  overdraft  materialism  crony  capitalism  capitalism  NPL  NINJA  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  bonuses  bonus  financial  incentive  incentive  creditrating  credit  creditrisk  credit  score  self-regulation  Bank  Oversight  financial  instruments  derivatives 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
This Is What Janet Yellen Thinks Is The "Worst-Case Scenario" For The U.S. | Zero Hedge
So, unfortunately, a Japan-style deflation remains a relevant worst-case scenario for us going forward. //&! What if Fed (Yellen) doesn't support any more the equity market? Just financial stability, banks (bail-in). No more blowing up credit bubble further. - http://bit.ly/1Oqb822
Janet  Yellen  Japan  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  part-time  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  economic  history  Abenomics  equity  bubble  bail-in  speculative  bubbles  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
The Great Unraveling Looms - Blame The 'Austrians'? | Zero Hedge
Well, well: who would have believed it. First the Bank for International Settlements comes out with a paper that links credit booms to the boom-bust business cycle, then Britain's Adam Smith Institute publishes a paper by Anthony Evans that recommends the Bank of England should ditch its powers over monetary policy and move towards free banking. [...] The BIS paper will be the more influential of the two in policy circles, and this is not the first time the BIS has questioned the macroeconomic assumptions behind the actions of the major central banks. [...] Targeting nominal GDP is not a perfect answer.
credit  bubble  economic  history  BIS  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  working  poor  credit  card  debt  household  debt  property  bubble  consumer  debt  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  China  USA  subprime  car  loan  debt  servitude  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  Student  debt  Super  Cycle  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Fed  ECB  BOE  Japan  BOJ  Abenomics  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  income  inequality  low  income  income  redistribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  group  think  think  tank  vested  interest  interest  groups  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  democracy  democracy 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
The Deflation Monster Has Arrived | Zero Hedge
the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling. [...] The next thing is to give money to Main Street. [...] Either way, money will be printed out of thin air and given to you. That’s what’s coming next. Possibly after a failed attempt at demanding negative interest rates from the banks. But coming it is. [...] Once people lose faith in their currency all bets are off. The smart people will be those who take their fresh central bank money and spend it before the next guy.
deflationary  deflation  debt  servitude  credit  bubble  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  secular  stagnation  UK  USA  Europe  western  world  Precariat  precarious  work  household  debt  Richard  Koo  GFC  China  recovery  property  bubble  subprime  economic  history  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  capitalism  crony  capitalism  exploitation  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  NPL  sovereign  debt  crisis  private  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bank  bailout  distortion  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  financial  repression  2016  2015  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  fiat  money  fiat  currency  trust  distrust  trustagent 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Why are we looking on helplessly as markets crash all over the world? | Will Hutton | Opinion | The Guardian
[ so much debt in the system, a rise in interest can not be served as is ] The imminent collapse of the Chinese Ponzi-scheme economy shows that we need to bring control to the international economy. [...] There has always been a tension at the heart of capitalism. Although it is the best wealth-creating mechanism we’ve made, it can’t be left to its own devices. Its self-regulating properties, contrary to the efforts of generations of economists trying to prove otherwise, are weak. [...] Profits as a share of national income in Britain and the US touch all-time highs; wages touch an all-time low as the power of organised labour diminishes and the gig economy of short-term contracts takes hold. The excesses of the rich, digging underground basements to house swimming pools, cinemas and lavish gyms, sit alongside the travails of the new middle-class poor. These are no longer able to secure themselves decent pensions and their gig-economy children defer starting families ...
China  credit  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  BRIC  2015  2016  self-regulation  capitalism  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Gig  Economy  Zero  Hour  Contract  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  western  world  aggregate  demand  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  economic  history  balance  sheet  recession  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  mortgage  market  working  poor  poverty  trap  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  inequality  plutocracy  oligarchy  Super  Rich  1%  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  David  Cameron  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalisation  globalization  exploitation  borderless  flat  world  USA  UK  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  debt  servitude  wage  stagnation  shared  economic  interest  NPL  shadow  banking  shadow  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  democracy  social  democracy  Generationengerechtigkeit 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Sean Bean’s battle cry: ‘I despair at the state of further education’ | Education | The Guardian
fight to save colleges from threat of funding cuts //&! The Tories’ assault on further education will cost Britain dearly. Colleges have been battered by cuts already – another round could destroy them. It is time we made David Cameron talk about it - http://bit.ly/1QeZ46n
education  policy  social  mobility  income  mobility  social  safety  net  welfare  state  austerity  post  code  lottery  inequality  UK  George  Osborne  Generationengerechtigkeit  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  David  Cameron  constituency  babyboomers  budget2015  short-termism  budget  deficit  dogma  ideology  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  democracy  democracy  fairness  generation  rent  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  student  debt  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  household  debt 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
"Markets Crash When They're Oversold" | Zero Hedge
Technology Destroying Jobs + While the big driver of the decline in economic growth since the 1980’s has been a structural change from a manufacturing based economy (high multiplier effect) to a service based one (low multiplier effect), it has been exacerbated by the increase in household debt to offset the reduction in wage growth to maintain the standard of living. This is shown clearly in the chart below. [...] In fact, each job created in energy-related areas has had a “ripple effect” of creating 2.8 jobs elsewhere in the economy from piping to coatings, trucking and transportation, restaurants and retail. Simply put, lower oil and gasoline prices may have a bigger detraction on the economy than the “savings” provided to consumers.
Oil  price  shale  gas  fracking  job  creation  USA  2016  Service  Sector  Jobs  Manufacturing  globalization  globalisation  neoliberalism  neoliberal  borderless  flat  world  economic  history  UK  low  income  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  property  bubble  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  job  security  job  market  jobcreation  job-creation  recovery  GFC  dogma  ideology  austerity  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  trade  agreement  TPP  TTIP  NAFTA  CETA  European  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  faultlines  2015  presidency  barackobama  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  George  Osborne  private  debt  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börse: Warum Schwellenländer für die Kurskrise sorgen - Kolumne - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Chronisch überschüssige Leistungsbilanz [ & Over capacity for less/stagnant demand ... + biggest credit bubble (china) popped as the west can't afford more. QE and ZIRP has run it's way! ] [...] Der Grund, warum der deutsche Aktienindex weitaus mehr betroffen ist als andere europäische Indizes, liegt allein an der strukturellen Abhängigkeit der deutschen Industrie von Blasen in anderen Ländern. Anstatt auf bessere Stimmung zu hoffen, sind Anleger gut beraten, sich über den weiteren Verlauf der Schwellenländerkrise Gedanken zu machen. [...] [ Fed taper makes things more difficult to serve debt ] [...] Langfristig sind es die Gewinne und nicht die Zinsen, die die Aktienpreise treiben. //&! China (Asia/BRIC/Frontier Market) Corporate Bond Yields up - bit.ly/1Sme7fV & NPL probably too. //&! If property is biggest item of household wealth in a property bubble (UK, China, ... USA) - bit.ly/1Zpiy8M
trade  deficit  BRIC  credit  bubble  western  world  secular  stagnation  macroeconomic  policy  China  Japan  Germany  UK  USA  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  NPL  shadow  banking  shadow  economy  banking  crisis  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  QT  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  mortgage  market  Fed  BOE  ECB  European  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  private  debt  corporate  debt  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  austerity  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  Russia  OPEC  aggregate  demand  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  Richardkoo  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  student  loan  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  trade  agreement  Hegemony  TPP  TTIP  TISA  CETA  NAFTA  Africa  South  Africa  global  trade  trade  balance  current  account  deficit  Frontier  Markets  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Taper  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  Abenomics  economic  history  India  irrational  exuberance  Robert  Shiller  inequality  Gini  coefficient  deflationary 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Under-40s worse off as result of state pension changes, data shows | Money | The Guardian
[ how do you save up when you can afford housing (nor even a mortgage, have credit cards (drinks and presents), and student loan. all the while tories help to prop-up the property bubble, the only wealth uk households actually have! ] Most people now in their teens, 20s and 30s will be worse off as a result of changes to the state pension system, while millions of older people will gain, according to the government’s own figures. The data will fuel concern that millions of younger people are suffering from the effects of what has been dubbed “intergenerational unfairness”, partly caused by the government targeting money and resources at the older generation. DWP issued the data to back up its assertion that the introduction of the new flat-rate state pension in April “will make millions of people better off” – but the figures also provide stark confirmation that younger people will be losers from the changes.
DWP  George  Osborne  Iain  Duncan  Smith  pension  scheme  pension  obligation  public  pension  pension  fund  constituency  babyboomers  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  bank  bailout  GFC  neoliberalism  neoliberal  PR  general  election  2015  general  election  2010  election  campaign  promises  budget  deficit  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Positioning  spin  doctor  manufactured  consent  generation  rent  Housing  Crisis  student  loan  debt  debt  servitude  student  loan  Bubble  student  debt  credit  card  debt  household  debt  retirement  consumer  debt  car  loan  generational  contract  lost  generation  Millennials  zombie  consumer  materialism  status  anxiety  Celebrity  of  You  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  demographic  ageing  population  OAP  UK  western  world  secular  stagnation  property  mortgage  market  Help  to  Buy  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  wealth  distribution  plutocracy  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  low  income  tax  credit  precarious  work  Precariat  wage  stagnation  minimum  wage  wage  growth  income  growth  social  mobility  income  mobility  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  borderless  Policy  Makers  Westminster  Toff  Privileged  Establishment 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Plan to end student grants without Commons vote outrages opposition | Politics | The Guardian
[ shifting public debt onto private debt balance sheet. = no vision! debt is still there in economy! paying higher interest rates. -- vs -- bankers gambling debt put on public balance sheet! ] Ministers have been accused of an “outrageous” attempt to sneak through their proposals to end student grants in England without proper scrutiny by MPs. The plan to scrap maintenance grants, which help half a million of the poorest students pay for university life, will go through a legislation committee on Thursday, without a vote and debate on the floor of the House of Commons. [...] Labour is opposing the change and the lack of scrutiny. Gordon Marsden, the shadow universities minister, said it was “not simply technical tinkering but a major change by the government that will deprive around half a million of England’s students from lower income and disadvantaged households, of maintenance grant funding”. // &! NHS nurse bursaries - ind.pn/1IYHYbk &! bit.ly/1IWZJI0 &! bbc.in/1RAhLRv
social  mobility  income  mobility  Gini  coefficient  household  debt  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  poverty  trap  poverty  child  poverty  tax  credit  education  policy  post  code  lottery  affordable  housing  social  housing  University  College  Maintenance  Allowance  Maintenance  Grant  NHS  Bursaries  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  democracy  social  democracy  bank  bailout  austerity  GFC  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  NHS  budget2015  nasty  party  Tories  Conservative  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Manifesto  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  babyboomers  Super  Cycle  2016  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  debtoverhang  student  debt  fiscal  policy  economic  history  moral  beliefs  ethics  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  inequality  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  Crisis  cost  of  living  low  income 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Student nurses and midwives protest over grants cut - BBC News
Student nurses and midwives have marched in protest at the government's decision to scrap their bursaries in England and replace them with loans. [...] The Royal College of Nursing said fear of debt would put people off training. // shifted another budget item off the publics balance sheet onto private balance sheet. //&! Spending Review: Grants for student nurses are being scrapped - bbc.in/1jk5kLW //&! NHS nursing levels: Nine in 10 hospitals missing targets - The vast majority of hospitals in England are struggling to recruit enough nurses, figures show. Some 92% of the 225 acute hospital trusts in England did not manage to run wards with their planned number of nurses during the day in August. The figures, published by the NHS, show that hospitals in England are falling short of their own targets for levels of safe staffing. - bbc.in/1Pfuzuq
budget2015  PR  Positioning  spin  doctor  George  Osborne  Jeremy  Hunt  austerity  NHS  staff  shortage  staff  morale  locum  staff  tories  nasty  party  Conservative  David  Cameron  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  constituency  babyboomers  Generationengerechtigkeit  education  policy  social  mobility  income  mobility  Gini  coefficient  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  Maintenance  Allowance  Maintenance  Grant  poverty  trap  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  debtoverhang  student  debt  Super  Cycle  household  debt  private  debt  UK  output  gap  recovery  2015  2016  sovereign  debt  crisis  Privatisation 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Thomas Piketty on Capitalism, Corbyn and why Zuckerberg is getting it wrong - BBC Newsnight - YouTube
home ownership in UK is biggest item of UK's household wealth. 2/3rd of housing is owned. other 3rd is rented. that is why the property bubble/prices have to be kept afloat. otherwise balance sheet recession > deleveraging > debt servitude > lower consumption rate > cratering UK economy as ~70% of UK economy is based on consumption. // blaming others (ISIS) for radicalization. but who put them in this place to be radicalized, in the first place? inequality, youth unemployment. // COP21, western world do not face their historical obligation! // world wealth and income database - www.wid.world
philanthropy  Thomas  Piketty  Mark  Zuckerberg  Bill  Gates  social  mobility  income  mobility  Gini  coefficient  meritocracy  meritocratic  Alain  de  Botton  UK  George  Osborne  property  bubble  tax  code  progressive  taxation  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Buy  to  Rent  rent-seeking  rentier  generation  GFC  bank  bailout  austerity  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Tories  Conservative  Party  David  Cameron  budget2015  inequality  income  inequality  youth  unemployment  radicalization  islamic  radicalism  radicalisation  Islamophobia  ISIS  disenfranchise  disenfranchised  Perspective  Perspektivlosigkeit  COP21  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  household  debt  private  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  credit  card  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  2015  2016  fiscal  policy  Makers  vested  interest  interest  groups  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  democracy  No  Representation  social  democracy  Career  Politicians  constituency  babyboomers  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  Manifesto 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Perfect Storm!? | Zero Hedge
And with debt now $57 trillion higher worldwide than in 2008, it’s not at all clear that another borrowing binge will be greeted with enthusiasm by the world’s bond markets, currency traders or entrepreneurs. [ market correction, no liquidity, stuck with position, this may be no correction, but correction back to fundamental grounds ] [...] And one thought will appear in all those minds: Why didn’t I load up on gold when I had the chance?
2015  2016  China  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  household  debt  mortgage  market  property  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  credit  card  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  servitude  corporate  debt  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  economic  history  Taper  Fed  BOE  ECB  PBOC  output  gap  globalisation  globalization  borderless  secular  stagnation  western  world  OPEC  Oil  price  commodity  prices  flat  world  BRIC  leverage 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Osborne warns of 'dangerous cocktail' of economic risks - BBC News
[ repeat phrases - "strong economy", "strong economy, strong NHS" ] The UK faces a "cocktail" of serious threats from a slowing global economy as 2016 begins, Chancellor George Osborne has warned. Speaking in Cardiff, Mr Osborne said this year is likely to be one of the toughest since the financial crisis. He told business leaders that far from "mission accomplished" on the economy, "2016 is the year of mission critical". His message is in stark contrast to the positive tone of his Autumn Statement, when he said the UK was "growing fast". [...] that the Autumn Statement had put in place a four-year plan to restore the UK's public finances, and make the economy more productive, with businesses more competitive so they could create jobs. [...] Mr Osborne told the Today programme the UK's economic recovery was not "a debt-fuelled recovery", citing the support of the governor of the Bank of England in his assessment. [ not public, but private household debt! ]
George  Osborne  Career  Politicians  PR  spin  doctor  budget2015  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  austerity  underinvestment  productive  investment  productivity  output  gap  job  creation  wage  growth  consumer  debt  household  debt  Positioning  energy  policy  competitiveness  renewable  energy  corporate  welfare  corporate  tax  rate  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  subsidies  subsidizing  NHS  Jeremy  Hunt  David  Cameron  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  Manifesto  constituency  babyboomers  Opportunism  opportunist  Oil  price  bank  bailout  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Housing  Crisis  affordable  generation  rent  property  bubble  NPL  mortgage  market  car  loan  credit  card  debt  budget  deficit  balance  sheet  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  borderless  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  student  loan  debt  private  debt  sovereign  debt  corporate  debt  student  debt  student  loan  Maintenance  Grant  Education  Maintenance  Allowance  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  BOE  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Rob Ford's Sobriety Coach: Inside the Manic Life & Work of Bob Marier - YouTube
[ symptom ] when substance abuse takes over your life. you are the slave. // self-developed coping mechanisms // see also Dr Gabor Mate (Trauma) // recovery coach is new field. // SOS - sharing our sobriety // soh - sharing our health // from recovery, to discovery; many different ways what is wrong with you and the world and how wrongly short sighted you dealt with it // love unconditionally, connect with other people. // worst at state of 'nothing else matters, have to get high now, asap.' //
addiction  food  abuse  alcohol  abuse  drug  abuse  substance  abuse  mental  health  well  being  status  anxiety  anxiety  safety  debt  servitude  happiness  security  job  security  squeezed  middle  class  crony  capitalism  capitalism  rat  race  Rehabilitation  sociology  psychology  alcoholism  tobacco  Nicotine  food  engineering  processed  food  fast  food  Chain  junk  food  Politics  food  poisoning  non-alcoholic  fatty  liver  disease  liver  disease  public  health  public  health  policy  prevention  intervention  sick  population  health  crisis  diet-related  disease  chronic  diseases  stigma  obesity  epidemic  obesity  childhood  obesity  overweight 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC Radio 4 - Money Box, Student Finance - Necessary reform or the betrayal of a generation?
Student Finance - Necessary reform or the betrayal of a generation? Lord Willets, former Minister for Universities and Science and Sally Hunt, General Secretary of the University and College Union give their view on George Osborne’s plans. // shifting an item off the public balance sheet that he is held accountable, reducing the budget deficit. and the payback rate (threshold) is not progressive, gradual. the 9% added tax rate is fixed, after earning 21k. 29% tax vs 20%. also scheme does not subsidies interest rates as much as you would expected, as the state can loan at lower rates. broken also conditions at 2012, letters said conditions could change.
Student  Maintenance  Grant  budget2015  UK  austerity  George  Osborne  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  social  mobility  income  mobility  Gini  coefficient  poverty  trap  debt  servitude  trickle-down  economics  education  policy  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  Tories  Conservative  Party  subsidies  subsidizing  inequality  income  inequality  STEM  attainment  gap  underinvestment  productive  investment  skills  gap  capital  skills  productivity  output  gap  job  creation 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Economy concerns as household debt rises to £40bn in latest figures | Business | The Guardian
Families are expected to run up £40bn of debt this year, sparking fears about Britain’s economic recovery. [...] (OBR) forecasts have found that households have moved from a surplus of £67bn in 2010, the year the coalition took power, to a £40bn deficit this year. Unsustainable borrowing is on course to near the levels reached in the run-up to the 2008 financial crash, according to Labour. Seema Malhotra, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said: “George Osborne is relying on millions of British families going further into debt to hit his growth targets. [ as projected by economists, that household had to take up debt, shifting debt burden off the public balance sheet, when austerity plans were revealed together with LibDems, to meet growth targets/estimates, back then. same w decistions to increase student loans, convert grants into loan ie for nursing, remove allowances and grants. same w the green bank. shifting items off the balance sheet. and underinvestment. ]
economic  growth  austerity  trickle-down  economics  underinvestment  George  Osborne  nasty  party  Tories  Conservative  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  Student  Maintenance  Grant  Education  Maintenance  Allowance  debt  loan  debt  loan  Student  Bubble  generation  rent  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  policy  Liberal  Democrats  household  debt  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  credit  card  debt  credit  card  car  loan  Precariat  precarious  work  child  tax  credit  working  tax  credit  tax  credit  wage  stagnation  income  growth  inequality  Gini  coefficient  rat  race  status  anxiety  status  symbol  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  ZIRP  NIRP  mortgage  market  property  hunt  for  yield  QE  New  Normal  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  debt  private  debt  Privatisation 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Conservatives should blame capitalism for the 'war on Christmas' | Steven W Thrasher | Opinion | The Guardian
consumption as with dieting, is not consistent. [...] The first battles of this war on Christmas are usually fought right after (and increasingly on) Thanksgiving Day, as Black Friday shoppers are whipped into a frenzy of buying garbage products we don’t need, built in ways that maim and kill the people who make them and produced by means that slowly kill us all.
capitalism  Christmas  status  symbol  status  anxiety  zombie  consumer  consumerism  consumerist  household  debt  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  credit  card  crony  capitalism  advertisement  advertising  marketing  Selbstdarstellung  Social  Media  Selbstfürsorge  psychology  addiction  substance  abuse  Helloween  Valentines  dieting  Mindfulness  sociology  mass  culture  socioeconomic  status  status  rat  race  Religion  relationship  Intimate  relationship  relationships  sweatshop 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
IMF: UK's economic performance 'very strong', but risks remain - BBC News
[ UK more like USA than Europe, let alone Germany ] Underlying economic vulnerabilities have been addressed, and steady growth looks set to continue, it said. But high household debt, a "strikingly large" trade deficit and high government debt are still risks to the economy. It also warned about uncertainty over whether the UK would stay in the EU. [...] But although UK house price growth has eased, the household debt-to-income ratio is still high, and could leave some households vulnerable to shock interest rate rises. The large trade deficit could affect cash flows into the UK, adversely affecting growth, the report says. In addition, high government debt, and a continuing deficit, could tie the government's hands in dealing with any future recession, and productivity growth might fail to materialise. Chancellor George Osborne said the IMF report "could hardly be more positive" about the UK economy, but that it "rightly" identified challenges.
UK  economic  history  trade  deficit  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  credit  card  zombie  consumer  recovery  GFC  squeezed  middle  class  austerity  industrial  policy  George  Osborne  short-termism  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  constituency  babyboomers  David  Cameron  IMF  OECD  crony  capitalism  capitalism  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  ChristineLagarde  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  climate  change  climate  crisis  global  warming  energy  policy  competitive  competitiveness  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  policy  folly  policy  error  Super  Rich  1%  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  self-regulation  profit  maximisation  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  student  debt 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Will scrapping nurse bursaries help or worsen NHS staffing crisis? | Healthcare Professionals Network | The Guardian
[ moving another item off the books/balance sheet onto others, in this case, the private purse. and when tories came to power together with lib dems - they did cut part of funding for places ] Plans to axe bursaries and replace them with loans have been condemned by unions, but universities say they will lead to more training places for nurses, midwives and allied health professionals [...] Unions fear a loan system will be an obstacle to people from poorer backgrounds and career changers. Midwifery in particular attracts a large number of mature students over 29 – many of whom bring with them vital existing experience of childbirth – but are already saddled with debt from a first degree. //&! bit.ly/1HNLIMj
NHS  budget  deficit  budget2015  student  debt  student  loan  debt  household  debt  education  policy  private  debt  consumer  debt  Bubble  Maintenance  Grant  Maintenance  Allowance  student  loan  UK  Gini  coefficient  income  mobility  social  mobility  inequality  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  staff  shortage  locum  staff  ageing  population  demographic  nasty  party  Tories  Conservative  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  class  warfare  austerity  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  constituency  babyboomers  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  bank  bailout  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
The roof is being fixed but beware the house crashing beneath it | Business | The Guardian
Consumer spending is driving economic growth but household debt and the house price-income ratio is at a record high. Be afraid [...] It is worth recalling that when Osborne became chancellor five and a half years ago that he had two big objectives. The first was to repair the hole in the public finances, which is still very much a work in progress. The other was to shift the centre of gravity of the economy back towards making things for export. This remains a pipedream. [...] Despite the welcome pickup in business investment, the main driver of growth has been consumer spending, which has been boosted by low interest rates, the fall in inflation caused by lower oil prices, and a modest acceleration in earnings. [...] “not the ideal shape for the recovery” and it can say that again. The current recovery looks like all the previous recoveries. [...] “Fast-rising household debt is needed to maintain a reasonable rate of growth in consumers’ spending and GDP in a world of austerity ...
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december 2015 by asterisk2a
Cornel West and Richard Wolff talk about Capitalism and White Supremacy - YouTube
individualism tends to capitalism (each their own coloured widget) vs individuality of the individual. don't mistake the one for the other and you can't achieve the same happiness and well-being with just individualism because it is also based on constant consumption. // what people leave out of socialism and the pundits decry over it. is democracy. democratic socialism. // Plutocracy is undercutting its ability to survive! Problem, the system will take us down with it. // We got ecological catastrophe on our doorstep. Nuclear catastrophe. And Capitalisms catastrophe. //&! Ceased all power and rendered the citizen powerless. This is no capitalistic democracy. This is crony capitalism. - Chris Hedges June 8, 2015 - youtu.be/iA41ggsdeXE - capitalism has no internal constraints. remove external constraints & it will see & use everything (private free market enterprise) as replaceable & commodity w a price (even the planet): the environment, workers health. &! non-violent revolution!
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october 2015 by asterisk2a
SNP conference: John Swinney to give Scottish councils business rate powers - BBC News
[ so who is actually going to pay tax? to repair roads, winder service, replace street lights, clean the city, police, NHS, ... to fund councils budgets that are already deep in the red and are cut further over the next 5 years. Public libraries, pools, social care, etc etc. dismantling britian. framing it as job creator. as if tax cuts create demand! lol. its a race to the bottom. ] Colin Borland, the Federation of Small Businesses' (FSB) head of external affairs in Scotland, said it was good news that cutting the cost of doing business was "at the heart of the deputy first minister's message". He said: "If used appropriately, these powers could give local economies a welcome boost and it will be interesting to see how many hard-pressed councils will be able to take advantage of them." UK Chancellor George Osborne has promised local authorities in England more flexibility over business rates by 2020.
corporate  tax  rate  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Devolution  George  Osborne  SNP  Scotland  England  Wales  Northern  Ireland  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  austerity  Public  Services  Social  Services  budget2015  budget  deficit  elderly  care  Big  Society  deprivation  community  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  trickle-down  economics  economic  history  UK  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  household  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  tax  code  tax  free  income  aggregate  demand  Supply  and  and  Supply  credit  card  debt  credit  card  mortgage  market  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  PR  spin  doctor  Positioning  Tories  Conservative  Party  dogma  ideology  nasty  reframing  framing  academia  academics  Niall  Ferguson  secular  stagnation  western  world  fairness  GFC  Generationengerechtigkeit  babyboomers  constituency  vested  interest  interest  groups  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  Makers 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Profit mean reversion and recession | Credit Writedowns
We are now in the seventh year of a cyclical recovery and bull market. Shares have tripled in that time frame. I would say this means we are much closer to the end of the business cycle than the beginning. Moreover, as Jeremy Grantham is quoted in the Business Insider piece, profits are mean-reverting and right now they are reverting from a phase that is “wildly optimistic” according to Warren Buffett. All of this is taking place against the backdrop of an economy in which wage growth is weak, household debt is still relatively high on a historic basis as a percentage of income and we have no policy room on the monetary side, with limited political appetite for policy on the fiscal side. To me, the pre-conditions for this profits recession speak to downside risk, ....
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october 2015 by asterisk2a
UK interest rates held at 0.5% after 8-1 Bank vote - BBC News
The central bank said cost pressures in the UK's labour market were rising too slowly for inflation to return to the Bank's 2% target, and that inflation would stay below 1% until spring 2016. Inflation has been hovering around 0% for the past few months, but the Bank had indicated that robust domestic growth and the fading effect of last year's big oil price falls would cause it to bounce back towards 2% next year. Although UK consumer spending had remained resilient, bolstered by wage growth, attempts to reduce the UK budget deficit had restrained activity and global growth had been below average.
UK  BOE  MPC  austerity  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  disposable  income  income  growth  low  income  job  creation  productivity  output  gap  recovery  fiscal  policy  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  monetary  policy  2015  consumer  debt  household  debt  mortgage  market  car  loan  Student  Bubble  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  balance  sheet  recession  leverage  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  asset  reflate  reflation  property  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  global  economy  USA  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  George  Osborne  Tories  Conservative  Party  constituency  babyboomers  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  Millennials  generationy 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Perhaps austerity didn't choke off UK recovery - BBC News
But, as I mentioned, the disclosure that we were a bit richer in the last parliament than we thought is not all fabulous news for the chancellor. He and his Treasury colleagues should probably be anxious that the faster growth did not translate into higher tax revenues. In case you need reminding, George Osborne singularly failed to hit the deficit reduction targets he set himself. But the explanation can no longer be that the economy flatlined, because that's not what happened. So if the higher-than-thought growth in the last parliament left the gap between government revenues and expenditures tens of billions of pounds greater than George Osborne hoped, it also suggests that his aspiration of eliminating the deficit in this parliament may prove equally elusive. //&! Despite strong employment growth, wage growth remained historically weak - the usual link between falling unemployment and rising wages seemed to have been broken. - bbc.in/1OEffcS
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october 2015 by asterisk2a
Nomi Prins-Federal Reserve Transition to Destruction - YouTube
via - http://schiffgold.com/interviews/former-wall-street-insider-some-form-of-bank-bail-ins-will-come-to-us-video/ ||&! QE and ZIRP bad policy, bank and market cuddeling. no mainstreet recovery! trickle-down failed. Private sector can not carry existing minimal momentum forward. policy has not helped people on the ground. // many bubbles created: junk bond/zombie corps, car loans, student loans, property, ... // transition to destruction, volatility is first sign. // market manipulation! // inflated financial system // rise in NPL! where how will they cover that? another bailout? or bail-in. taking depositors haircut. FDIC can't cover that all.
ZIRP  NIRP  book  QE  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  BRIC  China  2015  junk  bond  trickle-down  economics  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  household  debt  UK  USA  BOE  Fed  mandate  Fed  Janet  Yellen  Mark  Carney  MPC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  retail  banking  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  market  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  benbernanke  alangreenspan  dot.com  speculative  bubbles  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  private  debt  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  fiscal  policy  austerity  consumer  debt  credit  card  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debtoverhang  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mainstreet.org  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  crony  capitalism  corporate  debt  bubbles  asset  bubble  correction  mortgage  market  libor  rigging  scandal  trust  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  FX  reserves  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  balance  sheet  recession  Niall  Ferguson  financial  repression  distortion  Pr 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Homelessness figures: Nearly 100,000 children in England 'homeless' - BBC News
Nearly 100,000 children in England are living in temporary accommodation after being made homeless, new figures show. // &! More & more student start work after graduation in low pay jobs not requiring a diploma, due to current job market/job creation situation in UK! Not hitting 21k repayment threshold - bbc.in/1OU0K3H - OBR show fewer are likely to start paying than was expected when the policy was introduced, [...] freezing the loan repayment threshold - alongside other changes such as replacing maintenance grants for poorer students with loans - will significantly increase the cost of going to university. It says this risks undermining pledges by successive governments to improve social mobility, as well as raising uncertainty in students' minds over the terms of their borrowing. //&! Higher education cuts 'risk NI being left behind' - bbc.in/1gZMrgj //&! Doctors warn Tories not to cut free school meals (child poverty, food poverty) bbc.in/1LewQrn
UK  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  affordable  housing  social  housing  Gini  coefficient  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  poverty  trap  child  poverty  food  poverty  austerity  Policy  Makers  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Tories  Conservative  Party  housing  market  Crisis  housing  benefit  benefits  welfare  state  social  safety  net  bank  bailout  fairness  social  cohesion  minority  constituency  error  folly  babyboomers  social  tension  Toff  Establishment  Privileged  Entitlement  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  excess  reserves  mortgage  market  Buy-to-Let  Right  to  Buy  Buy  to  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  inequality  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  macroprudential  macroeconomic  microeconomics  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  debtoverhang  household  debt  recovery  2015  consumer  debt  debt  servitude  private  debt  Payday  Loans  Student  Loan  Millennials  generationy  secular  stagnation  low  income  prevention  job  security  job  market  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  income  mobility  social  mobility  downward  mobility  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  University  vocational  education  professional  education  Maintenance  Student  Maintenance  child  Allowanc 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The new right to buy is solving 1979’s problems at today’s expense | Gaby Hinsliff | Comment is free | The Guardian
This Thatcherite policy revival fails to recognise that the main cause of the housing crisis is affordability //&! Housing bill needs radical, long-term measures to reform the market. As well as increasing supply, the government needs to use the tax system to make buy-to-let less attractive as an investment - bit.ly/1PDxWe3
Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Buy  to  Rent  Right  to  Buy  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  Tories  Conservative  Party  austerity  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  affordable  housing  social  housing  UK  2015  budget2015  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  trickle-down  economics  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  shared  economic  interest  infrastructure  investment  underinvestment  general  election  2020  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  productive  investment  productivity  output  gap  commuting  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  growth  low  income  job  creation  labour  market  job  market  labour  economics  Niedriglohnsektor  squeezed  middle  class  generationy  Millennials  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  economic  history  household  debt  consumer  debt  debt  servitude  credit  bubble  NPL  mortgage  market  BOE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  Mark  Carney  financial  incentive  tax  code  distortion  Buy-to-Let 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bubble Machine Timeline: Visual Evidence Of The Fed's "Third Mandate" | Zero Hedge
The problem with rushing to combat any sign of economic or financial market turmoil by resorting immediately to counter-cyclical policies is that the creative destruction that would normally serve to purge speculative excess isn’t allowed to operate and so, misallocated capital is allowed to linger from crisis to crisis, making the next boom and subsequent bust even larger than the last.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Borrowing up amid interest rates speculation - BBC News
Mortgage brokers said that the relatively low mortgage rates on offer could be a response to a mismatch of supply and demand. "The mortgage market remains over supplied with lenders having more money to lend than there are people looking for home loans. This means criteria will have to loosen and rates will have to remain low to ensure lenders hit their volume targets," said Mark Harris, chief executive of SPF Private Clients. "For many, the main issue is not so much finding a cheap mortgage rate but being able to prove affordability to satisfy the lender and meet [the regulator's] tighter criteria."
property  bubble  mortgage  market  distortion  affordable  housing  housing  market  Crisis  UK  social  housing  generation  rent  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  debtoverhang  household  debt  consumer  debt  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  private  debt  2015  Taper  BOE  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  excess  reserves  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  subprime  macroprudential  policy 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
New US subprime boom - but this time it is for cars - BBC News
- zero hedge had chart w student loan bubble standing at 1trn, and some, as of about mid 2015, with car loans about to reach 1trn, and credit card debt. just google 'zero hedge car loan' - Blackstone says car loans are now in "untested" territory - bit.ly/1TO6Gxb - "The takeaway here is simple: under pressure to keep the US auto sales miracle alive and feed Wall Street's securitization machine (which is itself driven by demand from yield-starved investors) along the way, lenders are lowering their underwriting standards and extending loans to underqualified borrowers. [...] This cannot and will not end well." // July - With the US consumer hunkering down in 2015 and barely spending more than in the comparble period last year, the only silver lining had been auto sales driven almost entirely by access to cheap credit; - bit.ly/1QBIWc5
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: BIZ warnt vor Krediten in Schwellenländern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich sieht Alarmzeichen für Banken in vielen Schwellenländern. Die Kreditvergabe in China, Brasilien oder der Türkei habe ein bedrohliches Verhältnis angenommen, warnt die Notenbank. // &! Die Welt steuert auf den Bankrott zu (QE trap): Eine vorläufige Antwort: Das tieferliegende Problem besteht darin, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt auf den Bankrott zubewegt - und das wird umso schneller gehen, je höher die Zinsen sind und je niedriger die Preissteigerungsraten.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Is Global Economic Doubt Behind the Unchanged Rate? - YouTube
youtu.be/f5_AGIMe32k // much higher $ already put ~25bps on US domestic market. // Fed is a risk manager now // labour market got a check mark, but not inflation bc of tech, stronger$ (taper anticipation), commodities lower, further deflationary pressures (retail price fighting 4 increase like4like sales), globalisation (competition), secular stagnation (continued low growth in western world, lower aggregate demand overall, lower baseline), consumer unable 2pickup where it threw in hat (deleveraging, no savings, debt overhang household, consumer). A new normal of growth of ~3% (give/take) globally aggregate & western wrld (2-2.5%, EU aggregate even lower). In this world, THERE WILL BE NO INFLATION PRESSURE (2% or higher, &3bn ppl free labour wrldwide) IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS THE REAL ECONOMY 4 EVERY DAY FOLK DOESNT REFLECT REFLATED ASSET PRICES via QE, ZIRP, credit bubbles arnd world enabled by central banks. &! youtu.be/NVa5fkz8X0o &! youtu.be/Ny3bbonX3d0 &! 1.usa.gov/1JdKZxp
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
One Map Shows Just How Expensive College Can Be for Students Making Minimum Wage
[S]ubstantial evidence that lack of information plays a critical role in shaping the financial decisions people make. Consider how a vast majority of people who are currently defaulting on their student loans in the U.S. would be able to halt their financial suffering if they knew they could enroll in an income-based repayment plan that would shrink or eliminate their monthly payments. This map goes some way toward explaining why low-income students are less likely to enroll in college. If the idea that college is a risky investment is something thats gaining traction in well-to-do circles, then surely people who hail from less fortunate backgrounds are even more inclined to think the potential price is too high. // could be seen as balance sheet recession: rising cost of education - & on other side - unable 2 pay w job u can get (asset value). Education is mispriced in UK/USA in a new world going forward! >> youtu.be/_EDGTzOXa_g?t=1h46m5s
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
China's impossible trinity - BBC News
At the heart of China's problem is the "impossible trinity" of international macroeconomics. The impossible trinity - or trilemma - is the idea that it is impossible for a country to have three things at the same time: a stable currency, the free movement of capital (i.e. the absence of capital controls) and independent monetary policy. A country can instead choose just two of the options from this policy suite. The UK, in common with most developed economies, has free capital movement and an independent monetary policy - but not a controlled exchange rate. The Bank of England sets interest rates at a level it thinks is right for the UK economy and - as capital can flow into and out of the UK at will - the exchange rate is determined by the market. [...] But the bigger criticism is usually over the nature of the post-2009 stimulus package [...] But, for all the criticism, the counterfactual is rarely stated. What would global growth have looked like without it? [//+ deflation factors]
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
▶ How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
credit great 4 productive investments 4 the future that will benefit u/me/gov/biz like infrastructure/edu/skills. but waste 4 pure consumption that dont increase productivity in the long run. Like consumer credit spend 2 replace a 2yr old flat screen. vs consumer credit 4 vocational/professional further edu 2 get a higher earning job (future higher income 2 repay the then debt liability & have some more/left over). Bad if u dont have later higher earnings from higher education 2 repay debt & just work in an underemployed placement that any college dropout could do. Thing is, college dropout doesnt have that debt liability that the higher education person has (reduced disposable income bc debt repayment + interest payments.) Women are hit double (gender pay gap) & triple (childcare long-term earnings loss). // min16 income growth important 2 keep up with debt repayment beyond interest. if not, we reached peak long-term debt cycle! // doesnt include globalisation's deflationary effects
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
After the Crisis - Mark Blyth - YouTube
>> what if rise of the banks (deregulation, easy credit, global financial markets - arbitrage, and making money with money) fuelled the growth of the last ~25-30 years. // min 47 3 asset bubbles popped // USA - 40% of corporate profits came from 10% of corporate sector (banks) // 30% of MIT grads went to banks instead of real world engineering and manufacturing. // underwater private sector! via credit bubble: student loans (now 1trn and still rising in USA and UK, future disposable income/discretionary spending lower than babyboomers because of wage stagnation, no wage growth) credit cards, mortgages, heloc (home equity line of credit) --- all will have to focus on paying back debt. // 2015 - us student loans 1.25trn - bit.ly/1KJ29uc + auto loans << bubble to eventually pop when collateral is falling! ie stagnant wages for 10 more years. and more and more cant repay their student loans. // 1:12:00 Bubbles move on; dot.com, real estate (property) & commodities, China,
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Duncan: The Real Risk Of A Coming Multi-Decade Global Depression - YouTube
50 year long debt super cycle & credit bubble up-held. Put. // hasnt created inflation because of Globalisation = deflationary! [3bn ppl living on $2/day] Collapse of marginal cost of labour, offsetting inflation pressure of QE/NIRP/credit creation last decades. // Will eventually haunt people back once globalisation has run its way in ~100-75 years & the world is actually flat. energy cost 0, marginal cost 0, economics of abundance. // // min 23 AND because of this deflationary pressure of globalisation, excess capacity, etc lead to wage stagnation & or pressure to work 4 less (Contractor, Werkvertrag, Zeitarbeit, self-employment, Zero Hour Contract, outsourcing) and longer, in western world. Leads inevitably 2 being pushed into recession & avoiding that authorities always pushed button 4 more credit. Credit growth prevented western world not 2 be pushed into recession in last decades. 2010 Private Sector cant drive recovery! Massive Gov stimulus needed +10 years, not austerity!
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
(2015) Professor Steve Keen explains why austerity economics is naive - YouTube
youtu.be/-HHJ3q2TxEQ (2014) // Unable 2 sustain long-term economic growth! Next headwind (ie China, Summer pop 2015) could put it back into the ringer! No internal resilience long-term. Gross gov debt still rising & budget (tax income) short-fall enlarged than it would be otherwise. // & talking Schuldenbremse/compulsory budget surplus proposal >> Rising private debt 2 make up of the short-fall of public spending, that is what its institute of fiscal studies has been saying ever since Tories came into Office with its austerity agenda. // The next downturn (private debt rise stop & focus on servicing it/deleveraging + gov keeping austerity agenda) will be even steeper & harder! // On path of stagnation, of western world; how u serve that debt in New Normal of <~2% growth p/a & <2% inflation & <2% inflation expectations!? // &! youtu.be/-3aBjFo2Fh4 // youtu.be/WSfe6uyO5yE & youtu.be/4TTuPwIzFC0 - China "Crash." &! on.ft.com/1Ixhw1a 'Crazy China Crash Possible w contagion'
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth: Austerity - The History of a Dangerous Idea - YouTube
53:00 - EU, UK, USA banking crisis not comparable with Japans eco history. He argues that Japans problems are deeply structural (demographic bubble, culture (savings glut, low propensity of consumption), the state). See book The Evolution of the Modern State & Koos book on Japan 'the holy grail of macroeconomics.' As he explains it, very different 2 EU, UK, USA transfer of banking losses (debt gone sour) onto public gov books via bailout&QE 2 save banking system & the top 30% of society which owns assets. BUT, there is one narrative string that haunts Japan & could haunt EU/UK/USA current living generation; 2 hold back discretionary spending & avoid putting themselves into a debt obligation! This could be underpinned by the Share Economy, econ of abundance, marginal cost & deflation. Minimalism. Anti-consumerism. Not buying a car. Generation Rent not buying a house of flat. Not buying every other year a new TV/Laptop/Phone (despite being commodityish). Who is taking this place?
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! bit.ly/1fQ2lcq // &! bloom.bg/1Euf6peh // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
El-Erian: This Is Not 1998 or 2008 - YouTube
it is a repricing. a correction. prices got too far away (reflation of equity & co through ZIRP, NIRP, QE, speeches, plus hunt for yield & FOMO). It just happened to be China being the trigger, the wake-up call - very loud wake-up call - bc of its economic size and heft. (taper talks 2015 that made equity already nervous, and bond holders too, was too timid). Reality check. // Was it justified, yes. // In the long-run, we are all dead. And in the long-run things will, eventually, correct itself. // People may take now into account a new normal, lower interest rate environment, lower global growth, lower yields, lower inflationary pressures, lower dividend payments, more work that corporates (crony capitalism) need to do to squeeze out that earnings growth especially in the western world. inequality - low wage growth/stagnation - less discretionary spending on non-essential items (in the western world). & "realization that policy tools were less effective". &! bv.ms/1NFsFUn
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Crash bei Dax und Dow: Das war's mit Illusion Nummer drei - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Solange die Weltwirtschaft brummt, kann eine einzelne Volkswirtschaft ihre Währung so lange abwerten, bis sie wieder wettbewerbsfähig ist und der Aufschwung fast von alleine kommt. Globale Krisen funktionieren anders. Die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt kann nicht abwerten. Sie kann nur produktiver werden, aber nicht wettbewerbsfähiger. Da alle großen Wirtschaftsregionen der Welt - USA, Euroraum, Russland, China, Japan und Südostasien - ihre Mega-Krisen in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten hatten, gibt es auch keinen Unversehrten mehr, der die Rolle einer weltwirtschaftlichen Lokomotive übernehmen könnte. Das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft verlangsamt sich somit stetig. [...] Die fetten Jahre sind vorbei [...] [ Share buyback was hot in 2014/15 till now ] [...] Die Verschiebung der Macht von Arbeit zu Kapital schreitet nicht weiter fort. [ low interest rate environment bc low capital returns, new Millennials have to serve now this debt burden and can't hope to inflate it away. & stagnant wages! ]
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan's economy shrinks by 0.4% in a blow for 'Abenomics' growth plan | World news | The Guardian
the country’s main Nikkei stock market index was up strongly by 0.6% as investors expected the government to unleash more monetary stimulus. “Should growth remain sluggish for another quarter and inflation expectations start to fall, the odds of additional monetary easing would increase substantially,” analysts at DBS said in a commentary. Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of Japan’s GDP, fell 0.8%, as exports dropped 4.4%. “The sharp plunge from the previous quarter’s surprise growth was partly due to disappointing demand for Japanese products in the US, Chinese and other resource-exporting markets,” SMBC Nikko Securities said in a commentary. “Sluggish wage growth and bad weather drove down consumption at home,” it added. // no demand led recovery. debt fuelled recovery! little is fixed thus nothing (kogs) fits and runs by itself as one would expect. // [...] convincing people to splash out on consumer goods has been a struggle
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Die ungehörten Warnungen des IWF | Report Mainz | Das Erste - YouTube
Schon vor fünf Jahren sollte ein Hilfsprogramm Griechenland vor der Pleite retten. Doch führende Ökonomen des IWF waren schon damals mehr als skeptisch. // it's not a bailout for Greece. it's a bank bailout for France, Belgium, Germany and co. Its was always a bank bailout. // no debt restructuring, no debt haircut = no long-term solution.
Greece  bailout  IMF  economic  history  2015  sovereign  debt  crisis  ESM  EFSF  austerity  Troika  bank  bailout  zombie  banks  TBTF  toobigtofail  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  European  Union  Alternativlos  TINA  Wolfgang  Schäuble  ChristineLagarde  debt  servitude  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
How Millennials Are Paying a High Price As a Result of the 2008 Financial Crash | Better Markets
[ post-GFC ] 56% of 22-year-olds who just graduated ended up in jobs that did not require a degree, categorizing them as “underemployed.” [...] Today’s younger Americans are taking on more student loan debt than any generation before them, delaying major life milestones such as buying a home and starting a family. This debt is also threatening older generations, who need a large and growing workforce paying into social safety net programs such as Medicare and Social Security. [...] Mr. Rattner gets it right in his column when he writes that “starting behind often means never catching up,” since it’s been proven that graduating in a poor economy can have a long-lasting effect on a person’s career. [...] This lost generation faces an uncertain future and the resulting fallout will negatively impact them, their families and the entire U.S. economy for decades to come. // all the while, banker bashing has become a no-go topic in UK. // &! bit.ly/14R1pzk &! bit.ly/1PsHx7C
underemployed  lost  decade  lost  generation  un-college  College  University  UK  USA  job  market  job  creation  labour  market  recovery  2015  GFC  Millennials  inequality  Gini  coefficient  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  demographic  bubble  social  mobility  income  mobility  unintended  consequences  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  economic  damage  Europe  austerity  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  social  cohesion  social  contract  social  tension  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  bailout  apprenticeships  education  policy  vocational  education  professional  education  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's Devaluation Becomes Japan's Problem - Bloomberg View
The worsening economy, which voters hoped Abe would have sorted out by now, doesn't help. Inflation-adjusted wages dropped 2.9 percent in June, a sign Monday's second-quarter gross domestic product report for the may be truly ugly. [...] After 961 days, all Abenomics has really achieved is a sharply weaker yen, modest steps to tighten corporate governance and marketing slogans asking companies to hire more women. [...] If Japan offers a cautionary tale, it's that weaker currency alone isn't the answer. If Abe had used the yen's 35 percent plunge since late 2012 to good effect -- passing big reforms on labor flexibility, import tariffs, tax policy, supporting startups, reducing red tape -- Japan might not be facing the prospect of another recession. [ Japan's experience is a red flashing warning light for UK, US and especially Germany. ie uncompetitive Zombie corporations held alive with NIRP, ZIRP, and future new normal low interest rate environment. Where is growth? Silicon Valley. ]
Japan  economic  history  Abenomics  BOJ  2015  China  Yuan  RMB  currency  debasement  currency  war  devaluation  fiscal  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  policy  deflationary  deflation  globalisation  globalization  secular  stagnation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Makers  competitive  competitiveness  Exportweltmeister  competitive  advantage  competition  flat  world  New  Normal  Richard  Koo  Developing  Frontier  Markets  borderless  global  trade  global  economy  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  financial  crisis  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombi  banks  creative  destruction  Silicon  Valley  technological  progress  skill-biased  technological  change  Software  Is  Eating  The  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Future  of  Work  deleveraging  asset  bubble  Wall  Street  reflation  reflate  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  inflation  targeting  Fed  BOE  PBOC  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
STEPHANIE FLANDERS: It's borrowing and debt driving Britain's recovery | This is Money
New forecasts that went with his speech paint a different picture, of a recovery driven in large part by households borrowing more, and saving less. The level of household debt, relative to income, has been falling since the crisis, as families have cut back and worked to pay off debt. But the new Budget forecasts show it starting to rise again, from the final quarter of this year, moving from 142 per cent of income back up to 166 per cent by 2019. That’s more or less where household debt had got to in the lead up to the financial crisis, after all that irresponsible ‘debt fuelled growth’ under Gordon Brown. [...]And total level of investment is now more than 20 per cent below where it was at the start of 2008. // &! bit.ly/1IxXKax - low inflation, no inflation pressures expected till 2016 // &! bit.ly/1DepsJ2 - The UK has the most unbalanced economy of any OECD country.
2015  recovery  UK  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt-fuelled  recovery  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  growth  economic  multiplier  productive  investment  asset  allocation  distortion  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  current  account  deficit  savings  rate  debt  servitude  household  debt  mortgage  market  Taper  credit  card  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  public  debt  private  debt  debt  bubble  NPL  Makers  Manufacturing  STEM  George  Osborne  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  David  Cameron  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  fiscal  stimulus  IMF  OECD  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  social  mobility  downward  mobility  Gini  coefficient  fairness  policy  error  policy  folly  interest  groups  democracy  social  tension  social  cohesion  budget2015  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  competitiveness  competitive  flat  world  borderless  global  trade  structural  imbalance  Impediments  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  disinflation  inflation  Mark  Carney  BOE  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  economic  history  faultlines  global  imbalances  industrial  policy  output  gap  productivity 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Russian debtors despair as boom turns to bust - BBC News
Millions of Russians took out loans during the economic boom years, but now they face crippling debts and the law is not on their side, the BBC's Oleg Boldyrev reports. [...] The Russian Central Bank says those chronic debts now total 1tn roubles (£10.7bn; $16.7bn). And that is at least 10% of the total personal debt - 10% which cannot be recovered by the banks. [...] "We were a bit stupid," Elena says. "They told us the minimum payment was 5,000 roubles a month and we paid that every month. But that was just the interest, not the loan itself." [...] [ moral of banks - make new loans (performance) vs prudence (and being a bit more conservative) to deny one person a loan just to see them off at another bank where they will get the loan and that rep getting his bonus, and you not. ] [...] After the good years many Russians are now getting a harsh lesson in capitalism - and inadequate regulations mean there is nothing to soften the blow.
Russia  sanctions  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  balancesheet  2015  NPL  financial  literacy  bankruptcy  insolvent  Insolvenzverschleppung  insolvency  moral  beliefs  bonuses  bonus  financial  incentive  incentive  zombie  banks  banking  crisis  investment  management  regulation  self-regulation  regulators  crony  capitalism  oversight  Bank  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  capitalism  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Sorry to burst your bubble | The Economist
bit.ly/1IfX0s9 // "According to two new papers, the crucial variable that separates relatively harmless frenzies from disastrous ones is debt." // see China Stock Market leverage pop mid 2015 - with its huge rise in margin debt trading ... money which was flowing out of the property market into the Stock Market // // &! so if it is about debt - UK mortgage market & consumer/private debt of all kind (loans and credit card debt) does qualify as they took up what was cut by austerity. Plus the Supply Demand distortion, with new builds/project at a decades lowest. // Question for China. The China problem. Can they make their system sustainable before it will crush everyone. // The most obvious is China. But the next one will be different & greater than all came before. Period. Still, UK had not a housing bubble collapse on its own making. Only through endogenous circumstances. UK recession as UK economy runs mostly on consumer sector & debt) bit.ly/1OpClSO bit.ly/1wQITjb bit.ly/1SycLtY
leverage  debtoverhang  equity  bubble  regulation  self-regulation  regulators  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  household  debt  private  debt  economic  history  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  Greenspan-Put  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  margin  trading  margin  debt  asset  liquidity  economic  damage  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  mortgage  market  UK  credit  card  housing  market  property  bubble  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  sustainability  sustainable  NPL  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  economic  model  economic  irrational  exuberance  macroeconomic  policy  economic  growth  debt  monetisation  reflation  debt  monetization  consumerist  consumerism  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  financial  financial  crisis  GFC  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  baddebt  non-performing  loan 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Greek banks face full nationalisation - BBC News
post-referendum, post-humiliating bailout terms of more and deeper austerity and additionally - privatisation. // [ but nobody admits that they (Greece) lost all fiscal & national sovereignty by and through the show of negotiations of the 3rd bailout. ] // &! The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has confirmed that Greece has cleared overdue debt repayments of €2.05bn (£1.4bn) and is no longer in arrears. - bbc.in/1Os3G5G // &! youtu.be/fJB4neizgUM - we expect a recession of 3-4% for 2015 and 2016. // &! youtu.be/MpFtDwp8lVo - Greek Cash Crunch Goes to Market // &! On The Streets Of The Greek Financial Crisis - youtu.be/nDfOFzAKB-w >> powerless, no future, no options but to suffer on the demands of creditors.
zombie  banks  Bank  of  Greece  Greece  ECB  capital-controls  capital-flight  ELA  MarioDraghi  greatdepression  Great  Depression  2015  creditor  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  sovereign  economic  history  European  European  Union 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The Coming Crash & The Recession That Never Ended - Part 1 - YouTube
Part 2 youtu.be/SpJ4L2QGNI4 [ min 2:00 post WW2 german debt jubilee - American & Britain needed Germany as bulwark against USSR! thus Germany had leverage because it was systemic. Greece is not systemic, nor needed. Thus they openly talk, relaxed, abt Grexit. Grexit was systemic risk in the first ~3 years post GFC, because of underfunded German, Frensh and Belgian zombie banks. 6:00 PIGS generation will be disillusioned about claims of European Union unity! 7:30 austerity ] // &! Part 3 - youtu.be/FWulzJy2oXc Bernie Sanders on inequality &! social mobility, skills gap, ... make-up of USA economy is a impediment to future growth (output gap, no more 3% annually) & also part-cause of inequality ... &! Part 4 youtu.be/8wzDwU1pzpY - China may tumble bc they dont have the internal & global demand for the infrasturcture/economy they have build (debtoverhang, debt servitude) &or social uprising &! USA overreach // Forget QE, Wall Street’s new drug is the stock buyback - on.mktw.net/1HDtdUR
Richard  Wolff  Taper  equity  bubble  China  irrational  exuberance  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  stock  buyback  fundamentals  economic  growth  recovery  UK  USA  balance  sheet  recession  Europe  Richard  Koo  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  labour  market  participation  rate  underemployed  structural  unemployment  structural  imbalance  Impediments  unemployment  youth  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  Gini  coefficient  income  growth  disposable  income  low  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  employment  self-employment  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  working  poor  social  mobility  income  mobility  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  part-time  Contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  uncertainty  Niedriglohnsektor  minimum  wage  Niedriglohn  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  deleveraging  debtoverhang  savings  rate  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  skills  gap  education  policy  vocational  education  economic  history  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  discretionary  spending  dogma  ideology  austerity  neoliberal  neoliberalism  democracy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  debt  monetisation  debt  stagnation  inequality  history  debt  debt  debt  m 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The escape from the balance sheet recession and the QE trap: An interview with Richard Koo - YouTube
"deflationary" is a symptom of balance sheet recession, deleveraging, debtoverhang ... of the private sector, corporate sector (& public gov sector) (to repair balance sheet). inflation of price of goods 2 live is still existent. you cant eat laptops. inflation is still present. actions of private sector, corporate sector to repair balance sheet (and even public sector, all three together) is deflationary. // UK! interesting is that consumer still borrows ie via credit card and mortgages. // question is how long UK can run such a big current account deficit. somebody has to pay for it, if not the gov with debt, then it has to be the private sector. as long as it can serve debt payments, as long as it has wage growth (increase of productivity, closing of output gap). But job creation during recovery was mostly Service Sector Jobs & self-employment. Not added value STEM. // corporate sector will not, in the long-run, pay for current account deficit w debt. &! youtu.be/EhYvaMc3f44
Richard  Koo  deflationary  book  mortgage  market  credit  card  private  debt  austerity  underinvestment  household  debt  current  account  deficit  UK  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  dogma  ideology  economic  history  economic  model  value  creation  added  value  STEM  productivity  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  budget2015  public  investment  personal  investment  business  investment  economic  damage  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomic  policy  BOE  Mark  Carney  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  Tories  Conservative  Party  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  Career  Politicians  structural  deficit  Impediments  structural  unemployment  underemployed  part-time  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  skills  gap  labour  market  labour  economics  Student  Maintenance  Grant  Higher  Education  policy  vocational  debt  loan  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  welfare  state  poverty  trap  child  poverty  poverty  tax  code  working  tax  credit  corporate  tax  rate  child  tax  credit  tax  credit  tax  free  income  disposable  income  savings  rate  structural  imbalance  debt  servitude  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  monetary  policy  MervynKing  discretionary  spending  job  security  uncertainty  inequality  income  inequality  gender  inequality  propaganda  populism  media  conglomerate  manufactured  consent  skill-biased  technological  change  Funding  for  policy  gap  policy  policy  Lendin 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Koo: "Out of the Balance Sheet Recession and into QE 'Trap'" - YouTube
Released new book end of 2014. // Banks unable to lend money 2 unwilling (eligible) customers. Money remains on the private banks (&Central Banks in form of bonds) balance sheets/books & mostly allocated towards parking it overnight @Central Banks deposit facility (thus ECB put up a deposit levy, late into the game) or liquid fairly un(der)productive investment classes like gov bonds. // Companies (& people ie 4 education/housing) borrowing & investing (into the future, that is uncertain, unknown, deflationary)!? // 19:30 Even Abenomics is not working. Bc trauma towards Debt! behavioural economics: experience of debt servitude on less income, additional uncertainty & distrust! // Lowering corporate tax rate (like George Osborne) does not help. // Persistent low inflation expectations. // Taper extremely difficult: 2.5trn excess in long bonds. Unknown territory. Possibly future higher interest rates than fnd economic growth does warrant - adding to output gap & new normal.
2015  UK  USA  liquidity  trap  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Japan  Fed  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  austerity  economic  history  economic  model  academia  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  LTRO  TLTRO  lost  decade  lost  generation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Career  Politicians  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  negative  real  interest  rate  deposit  levy  economic  growth  trickle-down  economics  secular  stagnation  headwinds  Great  Depression  PIIGSFB  PIGS  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  economic  damage  behavioral  economics  zombie  banks  Abenomics  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  cash  flow  cash  flow  management  trust  distrust  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  servitude  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  student  debt  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  competitiveness  competitive  industrial  policy  budget2015  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  demographic  bubble  uncertainty  Sozialer  Abstieg  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Yen  JGB  Taper  greatrecession  USD  dogma  ideology  public  investment  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  productive  investment  book  rate  private  savi 
july 2015 by asterisk2a

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