asterisk2a + sarkozy   34

Rumor NY consulting shop says ECB could go to negative deposit rates in September | ForexLive
One of the catalysts for the latest move lower, it would appear.
Since the ECB cut the deposit rate to zero last week, deposits at the ECB fallen sharply. Rather than find their way into productive use, banks have been buying short-term government debt pushing rates in Germany and Holland below zero and to 0.03% in Finland.

***

- NIRP seems not to be the incentive to lend to real economy (lending, debt roll-over) or between each other ... easing the interbank credit crunch.
- Q for banks remain about outlook of Europe, and bc it is on the downside, they don't wanna do anything. its damage control of its balance sheet (Zombi banks, Zombi companies, NPL)
- Liquidity seems not the solution to structural problems (ie bank and sovereign linkage, competitiveness, EU wide divergence in local policies like labour, taxation and laws)
- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/clarifying-entirely-unremarkable-shift-ecb-deposits
Politics  France  Germany  sarkozy  FrancoisHollande  angelamerkel  greatrecession  GFC  liquidity-trap  liquidation  LTRO  QE  2012  PIIGS  Europe  zombie  banks  NPL  creditcrunch  confidence  trustagent  trust  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  BIS  ECB  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  System  policy  error  inflation  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
The euro zone crisis: Old maid | The Economist
There is no "solution" to the debt crisis that is pain-free; we are merely arguing about how the pain is distributed.
davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  barackobama  FrancoisHollande  sarkozy  angelamerkel  politics  Grexit  Spain  Italy  Greece  France  Germany  PIIGS  UK  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Draghi's message on how to mend the euro: It's the politics, stupido! | The Economist
Speaking last month when the ECB’s council met in Barcelona, Mr Draghi said that European leaders needed to set out a ten-year vision for the single currency, which would above all signpost how to secure the fragile monetary union with a workable fiscal underpinning. Mr Draghi spelt out today how such a long-term plan might help in the short-term. As was the case with the decisions of European leaders in Maastricht in December 1991 that paved the way to the euro in 1999, there would be a plan with clear deadlines and conditions. Just how important such a road-map was became clear, he said, when the Danes narrowly rejected the treaty in their referendum in mid-1992. By bringing into question the destination, that vote for a time upset the whole process, with interest rates jumping as the markets doubted that the journey would be made.
EMU  Euro  history  mariomonti  FrancoisHollande  sarkozy  angelamerkel  greatrecession  GFC  politics  PIIGS  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  MarioDraghi 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Those Revolting Europeans - NYTimes.com
It was actually kind of funny to see the apostles of orthodoxy trying to portray the cautious, mild-mannered François Hollande as a figure of menace. He is “rather dangerous,” declared The Economist, which observed that he “genuinely believes in the need to create a fairer society.” Quelle horreur!

What is true is that Mr. Hollande’s victory means the end of “Merkozy,” the Franco-German axis that has enforced the austerity regime of the past two years. This would be a “dangerous” development if that strategy were working, or even had a reasonable chance of working. But it isn’t and doesn’t; it’s time to move on. Europe’s voters, it turns out, are wiser than the Continent’s best and brightest.

What’s wrong with the prescription of spending cuts as the remedy for Europe’s ills? One answer is that the confidence fairy doesn’t exist — that is, claims that slashing government spending would somehow encourage consumers and businesses to spend more have been overwhelmingly refuted ...
economic-thought  2012  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  politics  election2012  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  austerity  sarkozy  angelamerkel  FrancoisHollande  paulkrugman 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
The Problem With Hollande - WSJ.com
The following is signed by 21 French economists ahead of this Sunday's presidential elections. The authors attest that they belong to no political party, and the views expressed here are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of their institutions.

"Socialism has never succeeded in its extreme form, communism. As the past several years in Europe have shown, it does not work in its milder form of social democracy either. If European history teaches us anything, it is that prosperity is closely correlated to economic freedom.

[...]

It is tragic that anyone can still think that one man's life can be improved by robbing another. We are all united, as French citizens and as a human society. It is in all our interests to encourage each other to give the best of ourselves, and to defend each other's right to the just rewards."
FrancoisHollande  sarkozy  election2012  France 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Sarkozy und Hollande im TV-Duell: Verachtung und Abscheu - SPIEGEL ONLINE
After the 3hour long televised debate ... Sarkozy can only hope for a little wonder.
sarkozy  election2012  politics  France  FrancoisHollande 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
The euro-zone crisis: Call it a depression | The Economist
Economic picture of Europe 2012.

The euro area is walking, eyes wide open, into depression. Led by its periphery, which is already there.

Most everyone seems to have convinced themselves that this sort of thing isn't so bad, so long as a Lehman-like financial collapse is avoided. It isn't. Nothing good will come of a euro-zone depression.
sarkozy  angelamerkel  Germany  ECB  policy  folly  policy  error  political  economy  politics  PIIGS  2012  greatrecession  Europe 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Europe's New Entente Discordiale: The Other French Connection | ZeroHedge
France is no longer any form of economic supporter or ally of Germany, but only of the PIIGSB or “Garlic Belt”.
Not only the Socialists, but close to virtually everybody in France supports economically destructive and dysfunctional policies and there is no intention or tradition to adapt to their lacking in competitiveness.
Instead, demand stimulation through increased deficits and monetary debasement.
The cultural background of this is that the French react to economic decline with irrational and destructive political aggression and revolts (expropriation of the rich, protectionism, severe public sector strikes, etc) rather than in an adaptive manner (the poverty in England and the US has never led to serious political revolt, to common knowledge).

The idea that somehow, pragmatic voices will stop this political groundswell is entirely misplaced: this destructive belief set has started to run its course.
unintended  consequences  policy  folly  policy  error  Europe  society  culture  democracy  politics  angelamerkel  sarkozy  FrancoisHollande  election2012  France  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  PIIGS 
april 2012 by asterisk2a
The French election: An inconvenient truth | The Economist
Today France continues to behave as if it enjoyed Sweden’s or Germany’s public finances, when in truth they are closer to those of Spain. Although France and Germany have comparable public-debt levels, at over 80% of GDP, Germany’s is now inching downwards whereas France’s is at 90% and rising. One rating agency has already stripped France of its AAA credit rating over worries about high debt and low growth. The country’s auditor, the Cour des Comptes, chaired by Didier Migaud, a former Socialist deputy, has warned that unless “difficult decisions” are taken this year and next on spending, public debt could reach 100% by 2015 or 2016.

The underlying problem is that, over the past ten years, France has lost competitiveness. et al

Put simply, France is about to face the tough choices that Gerhard Schröder, Germany’s former chancellor, confronted in the early 2000s or that Sweden did in the mid-1990s, when its own unsustainable social system collapsed.
politics  society  culture  debtoverhang  social-contract  social-safety-net  germany  competitiveness  Europe  socialism  FrancoisHollande  sarkozy  election2012  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  economy  France 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
France's future: A country in denial | The Economist
France has many problems, next to some bright spots but the fundamentals are much grimmer. France has not balanced its books since 1974. Public debt stands at 90% of GDP and rising. Public spending, at 56% of GDP, gobbles up a bigger chunk of output than in any other euro-zone country—more even than in Sweden. The banks are undercapitalised. Unemployment is higher than at any time since the late 1990s and has not fallen below 7% in nearly 30 years, creating chronic joblessness in the crime-ridden banlieues that ring France’s big cities. Exports are stagnating while they roar ahead in Germany. France now has the euro zone’s largest current-account deficit in nominal terms. Perhaps France could live on credit before the financial crisis, when borrowing was easy. Not any more. Indeed, a sluggish and unreformed France might even find itself at the centre of the next euro crisis.

Voters belief in the states benevolence and the market’s heartless cruelty & see globalisation as a thread.
Politics  economy  FrancoisHollande  sarkozy  society  culture  election2012  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  France 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Euro-Krise: Vier tickende Geldbomben bedrohen Europa - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
1. ECB's LTRO does not solve sovereign debt problem
2. Greece
2.5 Portugal
3. Spain
4. Europe's National Central Banks seem to go under .... Target2; ECB's interbank payment system.

http://www.ecb.int/paym/t2/html/index.en.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TARGET

"Für die Bundesbank ergeben sich daraus Forderungen von fast einer halben Billion Euro gegenüber der EZB, eine Summe, die mit jedem Monat der Krise weiter wächst."

http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/pls/portal/docs/1/1207364.PDF

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldmans-take-target2-and-how-bundesbank-will-suffer-massive-losses-if-eurozone-fails
PIIGS  Germany  sarkozy  angelamerkel  politics  political  economy  bundesbank  ECB  faultlines  structural  imbalance  target2-system  Spain  economic-thought  balance  sheet  recession  richardkoo  Greece  LTRO  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Wall Street Journal Lays It Down: "Merkel And Sarkozy Have Lost Credibility" | ZeroHedge
No wonder the markets won't lend and China won't invest in Europe's bailout funds. Nothing these leaders say any longer carries any credibility.
angelamerkel  sarkozy  politics  EMU  Europe  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  confidence  2011 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Sarkozy Raises Taxes to Meet Deficit Target - Bloomberg
French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s government announced tax increases on the highest earners, capital gains, alcohol, tobacco, and sugared drinks to meet deficit targets and avoid the worst of the euro debt crisis.Prime Minister Francois Fillon announced 12 billion euros ($17 billion) of measures in 2011 and 2012 and cut economic growth forecasts, saying the euro region’s second-largest economy will expand by 1.75 percent in each year. He said France’s deficit would be 4.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2012, when Sarkozy seeks re-election, beating the target.“We have passed the threshold of tolerance on debt,” Fillon told reporters at a briefing in Paris. Yet, “today’s policies are not emergency austerity measures.”
austerity  sarkozy  2011  2012  France  PIIGS  contagion  sovereign  debt  crisis 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Relax, central banks can still save us - Telegraph
Military demobilisation allowed an instant cut in the US budget deficit. Today the rot is structural, a failure to stop health care and ageing costs spiralling out of control.

The eurozone obviously needs looser money. M3 broad money is stagnant and real M1 deposits have turned negative, even in Germany and Holland. Real M1 is contracting at an alarming pace in Italy. EMU growth has wilted, five countries are spinning towards default, and the banking system is seizing up. This cries out for a change of course, yet the European Central Bank is still tightening.
USA  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balancesheet  recession  greatrecession  GFC  depression  history  paulkrugman  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  monetary  policy  supply  M1  M3  velocity  money  creditcrunch  error  folly  benbernanke  trichet  2011  August  JacksonHole  lesson  greatdepression  fiscal  austerity  europe  UK  presidency  barackobama  davidcameron  angelamerkel  sarkozy  GeorgeOsborne 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
U.S. Stocks Tumble on Global Growth Concerns, Economic Reports - Bloomberg
“It’s almost like a worldwide buyers strike,” “There’s a continued general malaise on global economic activity. People continue to downgrade their expectations on growth on a worldwide basis. There’s concern about funding problems. That’s making us very nervous here and as such we want to take risk out of portfolios at least for the immediate future.”
‘Dangerously Close’The U.S. and Europe are “dangerously close to recession,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Chetan Ahya said in the note. “Recent policy errors, especially Europe’s slow and insufficient response to the sovereign crisis and the drama around lifting the U.S. debt ceiling, have weighed down on financial markets and eroded business and consumer confidence.”
politics  mistake  error  folly  policy  USA  europe  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  UK  germany  barackobama  angelamerkel  sarkozy  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  EFSF  ESM 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
EU Leaders Clash at Summit - WSJ.com
BRUSSELS—Sharp disagreements opened up among European Union leaders at a summit here over a German-led plan to boost the competitiveness of weaker euro-zone economies, threatening to unsettle recently calm European financial markets.
The German proposals, backed by France, are viewed as the price for an agreement to expand a bailout fund for the struggling economies of the euro zone and give the fund greater powers to stem the region's debt crisis—a move seen as critical to restoring confidence in the euro.
EFSF  2011  angelamerkel  sarkozy  competitiveness  politics  EMU  Europe  PIIGS 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Merkel Turns Crisis into Opportunity to Reshape Euro Zone - Bloomberg
Germany’s message is “we don’t care about pain and the only solutions are austerity and structural reforms, and anything else has to wait for 2013,” when the EU aims to have a permanent defense system for the euro in place, said Roubini. “You need a more comprehensive solution sooner.”
Most international investors predict at least one of the 17 nations will leave the euro area within five years and that Greece and Ireland will default, according to the January 2011 Bloomberg Global Poll that underscored the urgency leaders face in calming markets. The same poll ranked Merkel as the most favored of nine global policy makers.
germany  greece  unemployment  economy  EMU  2011  angelamerkel  sarkozy  leadership  Europe  Euro  EFSF 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Rede in Davos: Super-Sarko rttelt die Weltelite auf - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Für 2011 skizzierte Sarkozy drei große Risiken:
Staatsverschuldung: "Wir müssen die Defizite reduzieren. Die Welt kann nicht immer weitere Schuldenberge aufhäufen."Globale finanzielle Ungleichgewichte: Das internationale Finanzsystem sei noch auf dem Stand von Mitte des 20. Jahrhunderts. Außerdem gebe es seit den siebziger Jahren kein funktionierendes Weltwährungssystem mehr. "Ist das gut? Nein! Ist das ein Risiko? Ja!"Inflation: Die hohen Rohstoffpreise machten die Welt gefährlicher. Es sei in niemandes Interesse, wenn es in Ländern Aufstände gebe, weil die Menschen hungerten. Außerdem sei die hohe Schwankung der Rohstoffpreise ein riesiges Problem. Der Ölpreis ist in der Finanzkrise binnen weniger Monate von 140 auf 40 Dollar abgestürzt. Derzeit liegt er wieder bei rund 100 Dollar.

Radikalreform des Weltwährungssystems
sarkozy  davos  2011 
january 2011 by asterisk2a
Whrungskrise: Europa muss mehr Europa wagen - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Die meisten Deutschen wissen, dass die schwarz-rot-goldene Kuscheligkeit vorbei ist. Eigentlich. Doch viele sehnen sich zurück in die Wohlfühlzone. Das hat auch mit der Früher-war-alles-besser-Nostalgie zu tun. Vor allem aber damit, dass die Bundesrepublik sich einst selbst genügte - und heute bei allen globalen Problemen mit drinhängt. Deutsche Soldaten kämpfen in Afghanistan gegen die Taliban. Fleißig-anspruchslose Chinesen machen anständigen schwäbischen Firmen die Weltmärkte streitig. Und Kanzlerin Angela Merkel muss mies wirtschaftende Griechen vor dem ökonomischen Kollaps retten.
angelamerkel  sarkozy  trichet  ecb  europeanunion  EuropeanCommission  2010  Euro  crisis  PIIGS  bailout  EFSF  EFSM 
december 2010 by asterisk2a
Währungskrise: Britische Ökonomen erwarten Euro-Crash - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
doch die Einschätzungen, die einige von ihnen derzeit äußern, sind selbst für ihre Verhältnisse dramatisch: Der Euro kämpfe derzeit seinen Todeskampf, so lautet der Tenor einer Umfrage des britischen "Daily Telegraph" unter 25 Wirtschaftsexperten. Ohne radikale Änderungen könne die Gemeinschaftswährung schon sehr bald zugrundegehen.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/7806064/Euro-will-be-dead-in-five-years.html

Zwölf der 25 britischen Experten geben der Währungsgemeinschaft in ihrer aktuellen Form höchstens noch fünf Jahre. Acht glauben an die Stabilität des Euro, fünf wollten sich nicht festlegen. Noch vor einem Jahr hätte kaum jemand an einen möglichen Untergang der Gemeinschaftswährung geglaubt, schreibt die Zeitung. Doch die Verwerfungen der letzten Wochen und düstere Worte von Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel, "Existenzkrise" hä

Strukturprobleme die Explosion ihrer Schulden eindämmen können.
EMU  Euro  Europe  angelamerkel  sarkozy  PIIGS  history  greatdepression  fiscal  monetary  policy  ECB  trichet  june  2010  uk  economists  survey  greece  spain  portugal  ireland 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
Finanzkrise: Schlimmer Verdacht - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Weber schwieg, auch aus seinen Gesichtszügen, so berichten Teilnehmer, ließ sich nichts ablesen. Mit versteinerter Mine nahm der Präsident die neuesten Zahlen zur Kenntnis: Knapp 40 Milliarden Euro hat die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) bis Ende vergangener Woche ausgegeben, um Staatsanleihen zu kaufen: aus Spanien, Portugal, Irland - vor allem aber aus Griechenland.
Rund 25 Milliarden Euro des griechischen Schuldenbergs lagern bereits in den Bilanzen der EZB - und täglich kommen weitere zwei Milliarden Euro dazu, mal mehr, mal weniger. Auf die Bundesbank, die mit 27 Prozent an der EZB beteiligt ist, entfallen davon sieben Milliarden Euro.

Viele Bundesbanker fragen sich, warum die EZB überhaupt griechische Anleihen kauft, zumal in dieser Größenordnung. Das Rettungspaket der Euro-Länder in Höhe von 110 Milliarden Euro für Griechenland ist nämlich längst verabschiedet, die ersten Gelder sind bereits geflossen.
banking  Europe  solvency  liquidity  libor  ECB  bailout  greece  PIIGS  trichet  sarkozy  may  june  2010 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
EU Finance Chiefs Race to Ready Emergency Fund Before Asian Markets Open - Bloomberg
“When the markets re-open Monday, we will have in place a mechanism to defend the euro,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said. “If you don’t think that’s significant, you haven’t been to many EU summits.” Sarkozy cancelled a planned trip to Moscow today to deal with the crisis.

Barroso said he wouldn’t push the independent European Central Bank to, for example, buy government bonds. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet accelerated the market selloff on May 6 by rejecting that measure.
sarkozy  trichet  angelamerkel  ECB  monetization  debt  sovereign  greece  PIIGS  EMU  contagion  systemicrisk  bailout  germany  politics  may  2010  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  solvency 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Davos Forum Ends With No Consensus On How To Improve The Economy Or Prevent Another Crisis
Deutsche Bank chief Executive Josef Ackermann told an AP-sponsored closing panel that the worst of the financial and economic crisis had been managed "quite successfully" but decision-makers now had a tough choice: "Should we take more risk, be a creative force for growth, or should we focus on security?"
Peter Sands, the CEO of Britain's Standard Chartered Bank, - right balance - struck "between making a safer banking system and a financial system that can support the sort of dynamism and growth in job creation."
"Get it wrong one way and we risk a new crisis; get it wrong the other way and we'll take the steam out of the recovery and reduce the chances of creating new jobs,"
French President Nicolas Sarkozy called for a return to ethics and morality in business and gave a broad riposte to free-market capitalism.
Muhammad Yunus, Grameen Bank, which pioneered microcredit, said in an AP interview that "this is a good time to redesign the entire financial system."
recession  recovery  josefackermann  comment  opinion  prospects  lesson  davos  sarkozy  MuhammadYunus  GrameenBank 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
FT.com / Global Economy - France to add happiness to GDP
A commission led by Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel-prize winning US economist, proposed a raft of changes to turn gross domestic product into a more accurate measure of economic activity.

The commission concluded that as currently formulated, GDP no longer reflected structural changes to the economy, such as globalisation of production and the rise of services, and failed to properly account for government services, or activities carried out in the home.
economics  GDP  sarkozy  stiglitz  JosephStiglitz  post-autistic  reform  reformist  leadership  profession 
september 2009 by asterisk2a

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