asterisk2a + round   110

The Growth Trap
[ growing for growth sake! vs growing in a world/area that is not conducive to grow ] When Twitter went public in 2013, its stock soared and its value jumped to $25 billion. Its founders and early investors got rich. But since then, the company has been considered a failure, despite the fact that it boasts 320 million active users, because it's not growing fast enough. Douglas Rushkoff, author of "Throwing Rocks at the Google Bus: How Growth Became the Enemy of Prosperity," talks to Steve Paikin about why he sees the push for more growth as dangerous. // true capitalists (shareholder, crony, greedy) w/o self-regulation or governance extract all the value there is to extract and then leave, dispersing it to the few who already have [...] WE MUST REWRITE THE RULES OF THE GROWTH GAME ITSELF! [...] you want to optimise the economy based on velocity of money (circulation of money), not share price and value extraction [...]
Venture  Capital  Unicorn  shareholder  capitalism  Greed  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Wall  Street  Wall  Street  activists  Yahoo!  Google  Inc.  Alphabet  Inc.  Microsoft  IBM  Intel  Oracle  capitalism  exploitation  Super  Rich  short-termism  short-term  thinking  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  M&A  economic  growth  growth  round  Mutual  Fund  macroeconomic  policy  secular  stagnation  Private  Equity  MBO  Pivot  IPO  dividends  prosperity  Start-Ups  Start-up  s&p500  pension  scheme  pension  finite  resources  resource  depletion  economic  history  creative  destruction  share  buyback  Apple  capitalism  in  crisis  capitalist  Uber  monopoly  oligopol  oligopoly  antitrust  corruption  western  world  squeezed  middle  class  emerging  middle  class  BRIC  business  cycle  company  book  cost  center  overhead  costcutting  operating  performance  operating  margin  globalisation  globalization  Universal  Basic  Income  artificial  intelligence  AI  augmented  intelligence  Robotics  automation  structural  unemployment  materialism  consumerism  status  anxiety  disenfranchise  disenfranchised  youth  unemployment  post-capitalism  Mobile  Banlieue  deprivation  poverty  trap  poverty  meritocracy  meritocratic  Gini  value  coefficie 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Börsenpläne von Spotify: Der Sound der Zocker
Eine Milliarde Dollar (880 Millionen Euro) leiht sich der Musikdienst laut "Wall Street Journal" bei Finanzinvestoren und der Großbank Goldman Sachs. Spotify verspricht den Geldgebern neben Zinszahlungen auch Anteile am Unternehmen. Wie viel Spotify zahlen muss und in welcher Größenordnung Anteile den Besitzer wechseln, hängt davon ab, wann die Schweden an die Börse gehen. Mit jedem Halbjahr, in dem das Start-up die Erstemission herauszögert, wird es jedenfalls teurer.

Das macht den Deal hochriskant für Spotify: Von Profitabilität ist der Dienst weit entfernt, 2014 fuhr der Dienst einen Verlust von 162 Millionen Euro ein. Die neuen Schulden könnten das Unternehmen in einen ruinösen Strudel von schrumpfenden Geldreserven, drückender Zinslast und immer mieseren Börsenaussichten reißen. [...] [ M&A out of question ] &! bit.ly/1MYHBK4 &! on.recode.net/1oo4GQ1
Spotify  IPO  growth  round  Private  Equity  Goldman  Sachs  liquidation  preferences  termsheet  Box  Aaron  Levie  Apple  Music  Apple  Google  Inc.  Google  Play  Music  Google  Play  Amazon  Prime  Amazon  M&A  Soundcloud  Deezer  Rdio  Pandora  Microsoft  Venture  Capital  Unicorn  business  model  subscription  model  freemium 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Pando: So we’ve all agreed: Zenefits will be the (guilty) scapegoat for all that went wrong in tech for the last five years
You don’t have to read everything Pando has written in the past few years to know some of the things we’re not big on. Bro-ish behavior, breaking laws, the cult of disruption, Silicon Valley companies hiring dangerous political operatives, and dictating your business strategy based on how much money you can raise. To name just a few. You only have to read Farhad Manjoo’s excellent piece on Zenefits last week that detailed how staff were told to turn their t-shirts inside out when they went to bars, or the Journal’s latest story about how Zenefits HR had to circulate a memo asking people not to have sex in the stairwells anymore to know this was a company right up there with “Boober” and the college emails of Evan Spiegel... //&! Zenefits: Were the Valley's kingmakers wrong, or did they just lie? - bit.ly/1SS6bDv //&! The Inside Story Of The Meltdown at $4.5 Billion Unicorn Zenefits - soundcloud.com/jay-yarow/zenefits - the sky is the limit! hyperbole. doubling every year... landgrab!
Zenefits  Uber  Silicon  Valley  Hype  Cycle  growth  round  hunt  for  yield  distortion  governance  corporate  governance  corporate  culture  culture  filter  bubble  bubble  Angel  Investor  Party  Seed  Incubator  Private  Market  FOMO 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Inside How Mutual Funds Value Private Tech — The Information
The sudden and sizable valuation markdowns of high-flying private companies like Snapchat, Dropbox and Zenefits by mutual fund investors has been one of the biggest stories in tech, sowing fears that the market is deflating. They’ve also caused consternation among founders, who have had to defend their companies’ earlier valuations to employees.
downround  growth  round  Mutual  Fund  SPV  Uber  Zenefits  Snapchat  Silicon  Valley  DropBox  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  speculative  bubbles  risk  capital  liquidation  preferences  termsheet  asset  allocation  distortion  Lyft  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  hot-money  BRIC  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
The "Tourist" Investors Flooding Silicon Valley With Money Will Go Home One Day - BuzzFeed News
The tourist analogy comes from Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at the German financial company Allianz and former CEO of mutual fund giant Pimco. He fleshes out his theory of “tourist dollars” in his new book, The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse, describing what happens in emerging economies like Brazil and India when investors from the developed world respond to slow economies at home by seeking more profitable climates abroad. Ranjan Roy, a former emerging-market currencies trader who now runs a tech startup, wrote a Medium post this week connecting El-Erian’s “tourist” theory to the mutual fund investors that have flooded Silicon Valley with cash in recent years. The post was pretty convincing, so we decided to see if El-Erian agreed. He does. And he worries about what those tourist dollars are doing to the locals. [...] they don’t re-up [ like VC's and real Angels would do ] [...] push to stretch for return.
hunt  for  yield  distortion  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Silicon  Valley  Party  Round  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hot-money  Mutual  Fund  growth  risk  capital  Venture  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  2015  2016  2014  Unicorn  reflate  reflation  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  India  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  psychology  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Richard  Koo 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Zenefits: Were the Valley's kingmakers wrong, or did they just lie?
bzfd.it/1muzgqt // Earlier that same day he was forced to resign, not only from the company but also from its board of directors. Conrad’s resignation followed revelations that Zenefits acted as insurance brokers in at least seven states despite lacking the licenses to do so. Buzzfeed has been following the scandal closely, and we covered it here on Pando. //&! Zenefits was under serious pressure to generate impressive financial numbers. Last May, just over two years after Zenefits launched, the company raised $500 million in a funding round that valued it at $4.5 billion. Sales reps — even those without necessary licenses — were directed to work the phones to meet ambitious quotas. - bzfd.it/1o247vE //&! on.recode.net/1SKhaPP
Zenefits  growth  round  Unicorn  self-regulation  compliance  governance 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Masters in Business: Yale Professor Robert Shiller (Audio) by Bloomberg View
history has proven again, markets are not efficient long-term // psychology is disreputable in econ department. // cognitive dissonance - justifying X action by looking around ... / Efficient-market hypothesis is a hypothesis for a reason; "it's a half-truth" "sometimes market moves don't reflect market news." // irrational exuberance // book fooled by randomness // 24:00 eugene phama - markets are very efficient, prices reflect all the knowledge out there, just buy the index, don't try to beat the market. buy passive index // don't play poker with your life savings. << robert shiller // 30:00 look at politics science, sociology, psychology - influence markets, people. broader disciplines. economists disregard them. // finance is about manage risk! about being a productive society and progress, and not suffer from boom and bust cycle! + financing activities ie VC gov supported R&D // & gov being a support pillar for all and not picking winners, can't forecast the future!
free  market  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  inefficiencies  efficient-market  hypothesis  complexity  human  Wall  Street  crowd  herd  herding  speculative  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  GFC  subprime  book  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  finance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  tax  rate  R&D  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  risk  pension  fund  pension  obligation  401k  public  pension  pension  scheme  pension  marginal  propensity  to  consume  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  Greed  oligarchy  self-regulation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  negative  equity  boom  &  bust  secular  stagnation  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Pando: Two slides that could predict a worse quarter for venture capital is coming
All of 2015’s totals lived and died on mega-deals. Mega-deals were the reason that the total amount invested in the year was one of the highest on record, even though the actual number of deals fell. It’s the reason the fourth quarter’s venture capital total fell so sharply when mega deals declined some 45%. //&! As America faces the techpocalypse, how are things going in Europe? - bit.ly/1ndNFZt //&! If Doordash is struggling to close funding with Sequoia as a lead, how bad are things at your startup? - bit.ly/1njD8v9 - Doordash is a fundable company, just not at the prices originally discussed… and maybe not even at $600 million. //&! Asian venture capital in 2016: This could get ugly… - It has the farthest to fall, and the newest investors - bit.ly/1Pg8vla
growth  round  Venture  Capital  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Silicon  Valley  Private  Equity  Mutual  Fund  Angel  Investor  Seed  Party  Private  Market  Hype  Cycle  Unicorn  China  credit  bubble  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  QT  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  mobile  homescreen 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Pando: Unicorns on fire: Funding falls dramatically in the fourth quarter, along with exits of all kinds
I predicted the second quarter of 2015 had to be peak mega round. Turns out, I was three months off. But now it’s official: The shit is hitting the fan. [...] In the third quarter, venture funding hit dot com funding levels with 2008 deals and $38.7 billion raised. In the fourth quarter, we saw the lowest deal tally since 2013, with just 1743 deals raising some $27.3 billion.
IPO  Unicorn  growth  round  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Private  Market  Wall  Street  Fed  monetary  policy  USA  China  business  confidence  Silicon  Valley  Hype  Cycle  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  Private  Equity  Mutual  Fund  SPV  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Oil  price  QT 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
The True Impact Of The Snapchat Writedown For Entrepreneurs | TechCrunch
Snapchat is worth a lot less this month than it was last month. Fidelity, one of tech’s most active late-stage cross-over investors, recently decided that Snapchat is worth about $23/share, instead of the $30/share initially estimated. It’s part of an ongoing trend of cross-over investors trying to figure out exactly what unicorns are worth. But what does that mean for the average entrepreneur? Not much. The bubble didn’t pop. It just landed back on our planet. The best thing you can do for yourself, your company, and your future investors is build a business that works in real life.
Snapchat  Unicorn  Silicon  Valley  Venture  Capital  growth  round  hunt  for  yield 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: The most patient man in Silicon Valley
Too much in Silicon Valley revolves around hyperspeed. Everything in the startup world is an emergency that needs to be solved in an all-nighter last night, if you allow it to be. The genius in Ravikant’s AngelList is its measured, methodical, brick-by-brick pace to build a software platform to replace, save, wreck, or augment – the verb depends on your point of view – a business that everyone insisted for decades was incurably human, boutique and done with deeply-trusted partnerships and eye-to-eye handshake deals. //&! bit.ly/1LS4aVg - The “The old Series A investor who put in $2 million and really cared and had resources is dead.” [...] “A seed fund doesn’t have the resources that a Kleiner Perkins or a Benchmark had,” [ Incubators are only 3 months long ] AngelList syndicate leads help, but they don’t care enough to help [as classic VC's] [...] Entrepreneurs have to stitch it together themselves.”
Naval  Ravikant  AngelList  Venture  Capital  Silicon  Valley  Networking  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  crowd  funding  Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  disruption  disrupting  markets  bottom  up  SPV  growth  Party  Round  Angel  List  angel-list  A  Round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: Good news! B rounds have doubled in value over five years!
B Round! doubling down on (to a certain point) proven ideas as they move to make themselves solid/viable (building business model & continued growth if not even putting some more gasoline on the fire with a B Round - allocation of resources). thus there is competition thus bidding up in a private market. BUT BUT also reflects the rising cost! Rising cost to grow, the war for talent to scale, and the cost in said hubs/ecosystems where the talent are already working on scaling other companies, where rent is sky high and space rare to expand office, ops, ramp up head count, ... // why, on a side note!, ? because global ZIRP, NIRP, QE, hunt for yield, FOMO, property speculation, alternative asset management and allocation (newly minted paper millionaers) have bid up prices in metropolitan and hot cities by credit bubbles around the world. bc financial markets are global, thus your allocation/diversification is global, not limited where ur home addr is. adding to volatiliy too bc of froth!
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  Party  Round  SPV  Venture  Capital  Private  Market  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  B  Round  A  Round  growth  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  2015  cost  of  living  credit  bubble  cost  of  entry  aspirational  leverage  margin  trading  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  Fed  unintended  consequences  burn  rate  runway  ECB  Mutual  Fund  unknown  unkown  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  economic  growth  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  financial  financial  repression  western  world  Developing  BRIC  emerging  complexity  incomplete  information 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Venture capitalists have Dying Unicorn lists. But they won't share 'em - Fortune
don't you reduce risk with each VC round raised? // Venture capitalists say startups are taking on too much risk, and a shakeout is inevitable. But they’re not saying who will be shaken out.
Unicorn  growth  round  Venture  Capital  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
We’re gonna need a bigger round...
After 15 years of staggering declines, the cost of building a company in San Francisco is rising sharply // prohibitive! diluting too much too early. // China and other BRIC paper millionaers divesting into property speculators, around the world. every city that has seen substantial price appreciation +10-20% over last +5 years // hot money from monetary policy, excess reserves, flushing around the globe //
cost  of  entry  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  standard  of  living  city  living  commuting  London  Start-up  Scene  San  Francisco  burn  rate  runway  advice  lesson  urbanisation  urban  planning  Mountain  View  Palo  Alto  Redwood  growth  round  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  China  PBOC  2015  credit  bubble  Fed  ECB  BOJ  excess  reserves  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Micro  VC  Limited  Partners  Angel  Investor  Seed  Party  valuation  globalization  globalisation  flat  world  borderless 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Priceline's Lessons for Uber, Airbnb and Other Unicorns - Bloomberg View
But it was its market valuation that drove the fascination, and after the stock price collapsed from a high of $974.25 a share in April 1999 to $6.75 in December 2000, people mostly stopped talking about Priceline.com. [...] First, that the huge valuations being attached to today’s leading digital startups probably aren’t all crazy. Second, that those valuations may make it hard for late-round private investors, or the rest of us after the eventual IPOs, to make much money off the insight that Uber or Airbnb or Snapchat is in fact built to last. And finally, the big lesson for these companies may be to set aside a bunch of that investor cash for when times get tough -- and maybe hire a CEO, or at least a general counsel, who is really good at making acquisitions.
Uber  Private  Market  AirBnB  Unicorn  Decacorn  hunt  for  yield  growth  round  Private  Equity  Mutual  Fund  Silicon  Valley  dot.com  Snapchat  IPO  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Twitter 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: In the Valley, pre-seed is a meme. In New York, it’s a necessity
// cost of entry? // unable to make it happen? // Can't you write software from anywhere? // problem, heavily diluted early on approaching A/B, traditional shops don't like the cap table of pre-seed, angels, seed, accelerator & Micro VC's already owning ~+40% ... you come to a traditional A/B shop and not one of the existing investors is actually leading the round or committed in paper do double down? // // from a financial perspective/investment/math --- in the PRIVATE MARKET thrown under the bus by NIRP, QE, hunt for yield and FOMO (looking for their female unicorn or own Zuck) everyone can run 100 burger stands with unlimited/stellar returns in their spreadsheet model (bc cost of capital being 0 or negative). Despite the deflation of price of software & hosting (marginal cost, economics of abundance), Talent got bid up heavily (+200k/y in LA by Snapchat) in certain cities (SV, NY, London) // &! Steen Jakobsen - youtu.be/fnp5ETnKylU - min 16 avg guy does not have access to credit!
Seed  Round  Party  Round  Venture  Capital  Micro  VC  barriers  to  entry  cost  of  entry  London  Start-up  Scene  ecosystem  New  York  Scene  burn  rate  runway  traction  A  Round  seedfunding  funding  Angel  Investor  dilution  cap  table  lesson  advice  liquidation  preferences  hunt  for  yield  2015  distortion  FOMO  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  Limited  Partners  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Wall  Street  asset  bubble  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  Silicon  Valley  Private  Market  Public  Market  reflate  reflation  cost  of  living  valuation  Unicorn  Decacorn  cost  of  leverage  financial  repression  financial  literacy  financial  financial  cycle  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  hubris  panic  irrational  exuberance  retail  banking  investment  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  crisis 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Gurley on Global Selloff: Bloomberg West (Full Show 8/21) - YouTube
'averting catastrophic events' - hard things about hard things - book // when taking on growth round to grow aggressively company (buying customer growth)... you might actually take on risk. especially when the sentiment and the market turns and you burned it all and weren't so good at allocating the money and 'growing' you have to maybe raise a flat/downround ... ooopsies. Or even have to accept a debt round and massive lay-off to get to cash flow even/positive. And run a tight ship with the user base/business you've got. // re: post-price correction after speculative China bubble burst and massive China weakness and still existing/persistent deflationary pressures in western world. // &! bit.ly/1NTc3GM - Public markets affect venture funding. Full stop.
growth  round  IPO  Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  Private  Market  Unicorn  Decacorn  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  2015  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  burn  rate  runway  sentiment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  China  recovery  bubble  reflate  reflation  book  Ben  Horowitz  Marc  Andreessen  business  model  cash  flow  cash-is-king  Start-Up  lesson  financial  model  Start-Up  advice  valuation  Mark  Suster  Wall  Street 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Tech Stocks Rebound: Bloomberg West (Full Show 8/25) - YouTube
15:53 - you can build sw companies everywhere else. cost of living out of control as well dampens quality of life and standard of living. // lower burn rate, more time, more runway to find traction (product market fit) beyond MVP,
London  Start-up  Scene  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  Bay  Area  Mountain  View  Oakland  Seattle  Portland  New  York  Scene  Los  Angeles  Scene  cost  of  living  cost  of  entry  cost  of  ownership  standard  of  living  living  standard  living  environment  noise  pollution  air  pollution  city  living  quality  of  life  urbanisation  urban  planning  California  public  transportation  commuting  well  being  chronic  stress  Oxidative  stress  stress  happiness  index  affordable  housing  social  housing  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Redwood  San  Jose  bootstraped  bootstrapping  bootstrapped  burn  rate  runway  Venture  Capital  growth  round  war  for  talent  lesson  advice 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: Do SpoonRocket and GoodEggs signal the beginning of the on demand food contraction?
Postmates-- unlike almost all leaders in every ecommerce and mobile commerce segment-- has insisted on growing at a rational pace, while protecting margins. Some would be investors have criticized Postmates for not going on more of a land grab. But other investors I’ve spoken with have been impressed with CEO Bastian Lehman’s restraint in such a free-spending environment. Particularly since Uber has told him -- literally in 2012-- and through its actions recently that it’ll “see (him) in the trenches.” The crazy over-funded trenches lined with subsidy, customer acquisition gold...
convenience  Uber  on-demand  Postmates  Marketplace  FoodPanda  Delivery  Hero  Rocket  Internet  burn  rate  growth  round  customer  acquisition  CAC  customer  retention  LTCV  user  acquisition  user  churn  1099  Economy  Gig  Economy  self-employment 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why Billion-Dollar Valuations Don’t Matter | TechCrunch
I recently heard a story about one VC pushing a company to drive their burn up from $1 million a month to $2.5 million. Unfortunately, an inefficient sales force will always come back to bite you in the butt. We typically think of 60 percent as the benchmark for a healthy performing sales organization. Anything less and you don’t have a repeatable model. [ avc did write about that you need to find product/market fit, traction, self starter, great net promoting score, without spending marketing/advertising/pr ] [...] The goal of every entrepreneur and VC for that matter should be to build sustainable and scalable businesses. The only way to do that is to focus on the metrics that truly matter. The companies that nail many, if not all, of the above criteria will be the ones that make it to the finish line, and the balance will be wandering through the forest looking for someone to feed them.
Unicorn  SAAS  Slack  DropBox  Box  Venture  Capital  Silicon  Valley  growth  round  2015  KPI  metrics  accounting  user  churn  customer  retention  upselling  customer  acquisition  CAC  Decacorn  on-demand  convenience  Marketplace  business  model  user  acquisition  Product/Market  Fit  Share  Economy  middleman  scale  economies  of  scale  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  Start-Up  advice  Start-Up  lesson  burn  rate  runway  Homejoy  Net  Promoter  Score  consumer  product  business  product  B2C  B2B 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
El-Erian: This Is Not 1998 or 2008 - YouTube
it is a repricing. a correction. prices got too far away (reflation of equity & co through ZIRP, NIRP, QE, speeches, plus hunt for yield & FOMO). It just happened to be China being the trigger, the wake-up call - very loud wake-up call - bc of its economic size and heft. (taper talks 2015 that made equity already nervous, and bond holders too, was too timid). Reality check. // Was it justified, yes. // In the long-run, we are all dead. And in the long-run things will, eventually, correct itself. // People may take now into account a new normal, lower interest rate environment, lower global growth, lower yields, lower inflationary pressures, lower dividend payments, more work that corporates (crony capitalism) need to do to squeeze out that earnings growth especially in the western world. inequality - low wage growth/stagnation - less discretionary spending on non-essential items (in the western world). & "realization that policy tools were less effective". &! bv.ms/1NFsFUn
reflate  reflation  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  secular  stagnation  New  Normal  asset  bubble  bubble  bond  bubble  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  recovery  UK  USA  Europe  dogma  ideology  austerity  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  Richard  Koo  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  savings  rate  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  participation  rate  unemployment  imbalance  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  STEM  industrial  policy  Manufacturing  competitiveness  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  commodity  business  commoditization  borderless  deflationary  deflation  Software  Is  Eating  The  Marketplace  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  mobile  first  Smartphone  Revolution  2.0  energy  price  Oil  price  inflation  expectation  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  productive  investment  IMF  OECD  developed  world  emerging  emerging  growth  investment  midd 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
SoftBank President's investing advice - YouTube
playbooks different in Asia ... than in western world. lots of different barriers and execution problems. local entrepreneurs will give a good run/fight for their money - uber/airbnb ...trying to crack asia. // https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/softbank & https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/tiger-global & https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/t-rowe-price
SoftBank  Nikesh  Arora  growth  round  Snapdeal  Silicon  Valley  AirBnB  Uber  China  Asia  GrabTaxi  Rocket  Internet  Coupang  Alibaba  India  Flipkart 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Growth vs Retention – AVC
"Retention was clearly bad, and that’s what killed us" [...] [...] This all comes back to stepping on the gas before finding product market fit. You might think you have product market fit and so you scale up your hiring, your marketing, your sales, and your capital raising and spending. But if you can’t retain a healthy percentage of your users past ninety days, you don’t have product market fit yet and all the investment you make in your business is just money down the drain. So focus first on your 90 day retention numbers and make sure to nail them and prove you have product market fit. Then scale. // find natural/organic marketing - advertising - instead of building a non-product related cost center like sales, marketing, and advertising. short-cuts like these don't fix the product per se.
user  churn  customer  acquisition  Product/Market  Fit  MVP  user  acquisition  business  strategy  product  strategy  strategy  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  burn  rate  runway  Homejoy  distribution  model  discovery  content  distribution  content  discovery  Net  Promoter  Score  word  of  mouth  Tribe  1000  True  Fans  UI  UX  user  experience  user  engagement  customer  experience  customer  retention  customer  service  SAAS  marketing  growth  round  cost  center  short-term  view  short-term  thinking  feedback 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The investors who will invest ask you why they shouldn’t. – AVC
I could tell within 5 minutes of meeting an investor whether they would invest. Investors who invested were excited about eShares before we met. They either saw the vision and liked it. [...] Excited investors (and the ones who invested) were different. They didn’t let me pitch. Instead, they asked questions to assess risk. They tried to find reasons not to invest. That is the pitch-paradox. The investors who won’tinvest will ask you why they should . The investors who will invest ask you why they shouldn’t. [ check you if you know your business/product/vertical/category inside out and intellectual honesty ] Your job is to make sure you don’t have reasons that they shouldn’t. Fundraising is simple: find investors that get excited about your company. It is a filtering exercise. Too many founders believe they have the wrong pitch instead of realizing they have the wrong audience. // [ from comments: The good VCs know what they want to invest in, and when they see you, they know it ... ]
Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  Party  Round  Pitch  deck  pitching  Risk  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
A Dozen Things I’ve Learned From Chris Sacca About Venture Capital | 25iq
“Good investors are in the service business.” “There are angels who have 75 companies and don’t call any of them ever.” [...] “Any VC will tell you where they really make their money is on following on, it’s on doubling down into the winners. The things that are growing geometrically in terms of users, revenue that kind of stuff.” [...] “I do try to focus a lot on the entrepreneur as a person, I think that has fallen out of the equation recently…. look for driven people.” [ execution, passion, vision, mission, alignment ] [...] “Companies don’t succeed, when there’s a lot of chiefs and no Indians.” [...] “Create value before you ask for value back.” [...] “It’s people with these broader life experiences who have balanced relationships who come up with the cool shit.”
Venture  Capital  a16z  First  Round  Capital  s23p  Chamath  Palihapitiya  Marc  Andreessen  Ben  Horowitz  500  Start-ups  ycombinator  Start-Up  advice  Start-Up  lesson  Networking 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Jeff Bezos Revealed: Building Amazon One Box at a Time - YouTube
Not in Silicon Valley. Not inside the bubble. was not inside the bubble when it imploded. // can not rest on your laurels. can not stop for a second innovating. even trying hard to disrupt yourself (Kindle) and capture the market (monopsony - in book and ebook market and w audible the audiobook market). and taking out your partners (delivery firms) with building very close to the city their warehouses. also, locking in customers with Amazon Prime, and convenience one click order. and having the verything store. Amazon A9 - its search engine could be the one of the top 5 search engines in the world. Google, YouTube, ... Amazon? or Bing/Yahoo in between? // Nobody can compete on price with Amazon with popular items! they discount popular items to attract (loss leader items). making it up all the other items of the long tail // run in late with lots of antitrust. // all encompassing (encapsulating every decision) motto: obsessing over customer & inventing in the name of the customer.
Amazon  Kindle  audible  competitive  competitiveness  competition  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  IPO  growth  round  e-commerce  Jeff  Bezos  e-book  ebook  ebooks  books  book  Print  is  Dead  user  behaviour  Amazon  Prime  Platform  Marketplace  efficiencies  long-tail  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  monopoly  monopsony  antitrust  creative  destruction  disruption  disrupting  markets  customer  experience  user  experience  Silo  TOS  Silicon  Valley  corporate  culture  corporate  values 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
QVC Owner Buys Zulily: Bloomberg West (Full Show 8/17) - YouTube
etsy is a marketplace stupid. // once they saturated their category/market, the growth tapers off! especially home market & then they have 2 fund through IPO international expansion; ie etsy. & will hit on competition, obviously. // &! min 16 discussion on Amazon corporate culture & values! & stock based compensation package. // &! Amazon: How Bruising a Workplace Is It? - youtu.be/CJKkRMMaF7c 'extraordinary demanding workplace, and high turnover' 'exceptional company, what every they do, its working' 'up or out' 'unique culture by a company of that size' // &! youtu.be/qo9b8CtSqqE - 'unreasonable high standards' 'feedback system enables backstabbing' 'they call it purposeful Darwinism: staff ranking' 'GE dropped it' [ personal note: I think u still have the sort of responsibility (moral/ethical/hr as CEO) 2 help & coach ur worst performers, before firing them with compensation package (making them go), balance! also no charity ] &! youtu.be/NpiPc3gPeYY &! youtu.be/YtUhvnXF3Yc
Zulily  e-commerce  flash  sale  IPO  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  Etsy  M&A  eBay  vertical  category  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Silicon  Valley  growth  round  Amazon  compensation  package  compensation  Office  Politics 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
India's Snapdeal raises $500m from international investors - BBC News
In the Indian e-commerce sector, Snapdeal competes with rivals Flipkart and Amazon for market share. // burning cash, to buy customers, and with it being a private market, only board and founders know the numbers like LTCV and the puff they add with words and milestones. Chasing the emerging middle class. The new consumer is everywhere else, but not in the Western World which is struggling. http://www.breakingviews.com/indian-e-tailers-funds-will-disappear-in-a-flash/21212651.article
e-commerce  Flipkart  Snapchat  India  China  Amazon  commodity  business  commoditization  BRIC  Developing  World  emerging  middle  class  Frontier  Markets  growth  round  Venture  Capital  customer  acquisition  LTCV  customer  retention  user  churn  user  acquisition  burn  rate  runway 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Brokering Private Stocks Yet to Yield Big Profits — The Information
The secondary market for private tech shares is booming again, after a slowdown following the Facebook IPO. With valuations rising and startups staying private longer, investors in search of growth have been striking more deals with private company employees seeking to sell their shares. But that boom doesn’t appear to be yet translating into big profits for the handful of most well-known firms brokering the buying and selling of secondary shares, at least based on the limited evidence that’s available from publicly filed financial records. Adapting to changes in the secondary market and launching new ventures has been costly, although the firms are poised to benefit if deal volume continues to rise. [...] The Takeaway. Filings show that some parts of secondary market businesses SharesPost, SecondMarket and Nasdaq Private Market were unprofitable last year, despite the resurgence of deals. Factors include startup costs and a shift to lower-margin transactions.
Secondary  Market  IPO  Silicon  Valley  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  2015  growth  round  Venture  Capital 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Anti-Angel-Gesetz: Auch die CDU schießt gegen Schäubles Pläne | Gründerszene
Die Lage ist schon jetzt nicht rosig. Die Zahl der Unternehmensgründungen geht zurück – die Liquidationen übersteigen bereits seit 2012 die Neugründungen. Zudem sind die Wagniskapital-Investitionen rückläufig. „Die wenigen Risikokapitalgeber jetzt zusätzlich durch drohende Gewinnbesteuerungen von einer möglichen Investition abzuschrecken, ist äußerst kontraproduktiv“, [...] Das Finanzministerium verteidigt sich. Bei der Reform gehe es darum, ein Steuerschlupfloch zu stopfen, das durch Änderungen bei der Dividendenbesteuerung im Jahr 2013 entstanden sei. Außerdem gebe es weiterhin einen Steuernachlass für Investoren in Startups. [ ja und die grossen konzerne? ] [...] Um den Startup-Standort Deutschland attraktiver zu machen, fordert der CDU-Wirtschaftsrat eine Etablierung von Wachstumsfonds für Startups und einen verbesserten Zugang zu Wagniskapital.
Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  tax  code  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  GroKo  Germany  Mittelstand  entrepreneurship  entrepreneur  entrepreneurial  Failure  society  stigma  SME  SMB  national  interest  creative  destruction  Software  Is  Eating  The  World 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why I'm Moving My Business From San Francisco to St. Louis | Need/Want
// one VC/Angel said, its not that you run out of money, you run out of time to find the magic that makes things for your product work, MVP, Product/Market Fit, that kick up in net promoter score, that multiple in q/q growth, etc etc. // If you’re trying to bootstrap, being based in San Francisco is awful. [ Same with London and New York followed by LA and Seattle. ] Cheap cities are startup friendly. [ don't opt for Edinburgh, if go to Glasgow or Manchester (which got already a small start-up scene plus Media City, Salford) ] We’re an internet company. We don’t need to be tied to a specific location. Hiring remote and having a distributed work force is far cheaper than hiring locally and making everyone come into an office. // &! bit.ly/1EvpTcY
San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  Mountain  View  growth  round  Google  Facebook  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  Silicon  Valley  barriers  to  entry  cost  of  living  cost  of  entry  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Seed  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  bootstraped  bootstrapping  bootstrapped  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Los  Angeles  Start-Up  Scene  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  Taper  Unicorn  Decacorn  2015 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
A Rare Look Inside a Private Tech Stock Loan — The Information
Public filings show that a pre-IPO loan to SolarCity founders paid off in stock options to the lender, an example of the burgeoning secondary market for private tech shares. // can do that when you have solid business ... revenue etc. like Dropbox also getting a credit line with their growth round.
Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  growth  round  Private  Market  Venture  Capital  financing  hunt  for  yield  investment  banking  IPO  Silicon  Valley  SolarCity 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Private Tech Draws Wide Array of Mutual Funds — The Information
The number of traditionally public investors in Uber is higher than previously understood, according to regulatory filings. But questions about risk and liquidity remain.
Uber  growth  round  Silicon  Valley  Venture  Capital  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  hunt  for  yield  liquidation  preferences  termsheet 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Uber operating at big losses, suggests document leak - BBC News
They show operating losses of more than $100m (£65m) in the second quarter of 2014, albeit coupled with steady growth in revenue. In a statement, the company hit back at reports but did not deny them."Shock, horror, Uber makes a loss," it said. "This is hardly news, and old news at that," it added. "It's a case of business 101: you raise money, you invest money, you grow (hopefully), you make a profit and that generates a return for investors." [...] One positive note to emerge was the fact that the company increased its cash holdings from $263m in 2013 to over $1bn the following year. [ war chest ] [ growth round = do or die, no conservative mode ]
Uber  Venture  Capital  growth  round  Unicorn  Decacorn  2015  Lift  termsheet  liquidation  preferences 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Y Combinator Finally Reveals Its Approach To Growth-Stage Investing | TechCrunch
- signaling risk - do or not do follow-on round participation, but exists with every existing investor (on the bend to invest in next round or not and have pro rata) http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2010/04/03/understanding-vc-signaling/
ycombinator  growth  round  signaling  risk  Venture  Capital  Seed  A 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
#TOA14 Interview with Julie Meyer (CEO & Founder, Ariadne Capital) - YouTube
(1) why not to go to Palo Alto (2) money will find you if you are good enough/traction. // &! Enterprise Connect Presents: Raising Finance; Top Tips From Industry Experts (Highlights) - youtu.be/9Psgw5oJSMs // &! Lecture 9 How to Raise Money Marc Andreessen, Ron Conway, Parker Conrad - youtu.be/NJAKt1icZYs
Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  traction  Focus  Product/Market  Fit  MVP  Minimal  Viable  Product  viral  coefficient  Net  Promoter  Score  network  effect  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  Seed  Round  A  Round  Angel  Investor  London  Scene  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Networking 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The only stat about unicorns that should worry Silicon Valley
Now theres a new reason 2 fear the ‘corn: They are insanely capital inefficient. And over the last year, they’ve gotten even more so at an alarming rate... // dead Unicorn (their own making) because of burn rate w expensive offices ('we are successful'), developers, aggressive drive ('acquiring market share in a new market') to acquire customers (and not even making the math long term - life time customer value), ... with each round they have 2 be more aggressive, especially with these liquidity preferences inked in, actually keeping the risk level instead of reducing/mitigating the risk. All 2 blow out the IPO & not end up lower on day 1/compared 2 the last growth round. Box couldnt make a higher valuation after day 1 post-IPO than their last growth round via Private Equity. Existing investors got diluted in order to meet last rounds term sheet liquidity preferences/guarantees. // &! Either u risk more, or the other (competition) will, will outspend, overtake u. &! bit.ly/1Ji536P
burn  rate  Unicorn  Decacorn  runway  Silicon  Valley  growth  round  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  Bill  Gurley  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Blue  Ocean  Venture  Capital  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  SPV  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  IPO 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
German Startups sagt Börsengang ab - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Following Rocket Internet. Trying to go public as investor. Like a KKR for Start-ups. Ups. Is this a symptom of the irrational exuberance and hubris? // Der Börsengang des Berliner Risikokapitalfinanzierers German Startups Group ist geplatzt. Auch eine Verlängerung des Angebotszeitraums in der vergangenen Woche brachte nicht die erhoffte Nachfrage nach den Aktien, teilte das Unternehmen am Dienstag nach Ablauf der Zeichnungsfrist mit. [...] German-Startups-Gründer Christoph Gerlinger wollte mit dem Börsengang 54 bis 72 Millionen Euro einsammeln. Die Erlöse sollten zum größten Teil in den Kauf weiterer junger Firmen gesteckt werden. Bei der German Startups Group handelt es sich um eine Beteiligungsgesellschaft mit Fokus auf jungen, schnellwachsenden Unternehmen. // [ Interesting to want to go IPO instead of asking Private Equity or Mutual Funds for a "growth round" like participation in the realm of 50-70m Euros. ]
irrational  exuberance  hubris  Silicon  Valley  Private  Equity  IPO  Germany  Rocket  Internet  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  alternative  investment  SPV  Mutual  Fund  growth  round  2015  Wall  Street  bubble  NASDAQ 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Fear Trumps Greed in Silicon Valley as Some Venture Firms Hedge - Bloomberg Business
[... high ops cost associated w SF/Palo Alto ... fancy office (and expensive (rarefied) developers from Google or Facebook) in SF as a sign of success while burning +2m per year at least with no cash flow in sight ... and with all consumer products being free and hoping to finance themselves in the future with advertising ... ] Some VCs are urging their companies to build a rainy day fund to ensure their survival. [...] It’s a constant battle deciding whether to invest in a potentially lucrative deal, said Philadelphia financier Rudy Karsan: “Greed versus fear.” [ Softbank Capital just last week came out publicly with a shift in strategy, to invest now ONLY in proven winners, at slightly premium to get in (and with preferred liquidation preferences in writing), &focus resources on those portfolio companies ... than to compete in a crowded, distorted, muggy, in transparent, very speculative (with lots of ifs and luck and bet on CEO to execute well) A-, B- (and C-Round) market. ]
Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  cash  flow  cash-is-king  hunt  for  yield  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  growth  round  SPV  war  for  talent  Private  Market  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  bubble  USA  Fed  Taper  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  Angel  Investor  Seed  business  model  advertising  VC  Venture  Capital  Greed  FOMO  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  SoftBank  Capital  IPO  NASDAQ  A  Unicorn  Decacorn  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  exit  strategy  M&A  acquisition  acquihire  acqui-hire  business  cycle  business  plan  business  investment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  leverage  debtoverhang  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Welcome To The Unicorn Club, 2015: Learning From Billion-Dollar Companies | TechCrunch
capital efficiency of these “private unicorns” is surprisingly low, [ << bc they (1) use growth round to buy aggressively market share/customers and (2) Palo Alto/San Francisco/New York/London is expensive locations - prices driven up by Venture Capital & Angel Investments & hunt for developers - employees can command negotiations about their price in most cases. ] [...] 7) Take heart, “old people” of Silicon Valley: Companies with educated, tech-savvy, experienced 30-something, co-founding teams with history together have built the most successes. Twenty-something founders and successful pivots are the minority; dedicated CEOs who are able to scale their companies for the long haul are not. [...] Optimistic private markets sheltering a thicket of “paper unicorns.” [ << Bill Gurley, there will be a dead unicorn ] [...] [SAAS] are also among the more capital efficient companies on average in our set[.] [...] There’s still too little diversity at the top in 2015
Unicorn  Silicon  Valley  marketshare  growth  round  FOMO  Private  Market  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  SPV  diversity  gender  bias  gender-based  discrimination  gender  politics  gender  equality  gender  policing  gender-based  harassment  STEM  pattern  matching  pattern  recognition  nurture  environment  entrepreneur 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Silicon Valley: 'Centre of the universe' - but for how long? - BBC News
Bill Gurly; there will be a dead unicorn. again, predictions are hard. but pointing out fundy skew is ok. ie cost, and raising lots of money with no business model/revenue stream even in the pipeline ...
Silicon  Valley  irrational  exuberance  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  growth  round  late-stage  funding  Unicorn  Bill  Gurley 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The frustrating, no-win "Goldilocks Zone" of seed deals
Don’t do party rounds. Raise as much as you possibly can so you don’t get crunched. Don’t raise money from just seed funds. Don’t raise money from just big name VCs unless you know you’ll breakthrough, and then absolutely do. And actually you never know that, so nevermind. Oh, and good luck rationalizing all of this advice, first timers. [...] TL;DR version: Large VC firms may do lots of seed deals but each partner will only do one to two Series A deals a year. So basic math tells you it’s a game of survivor. Most of the seed deals will not get a Series A from that firm. The concern is if you don’t quite make the cut, is the signal so bad to other VCs that you are worse off than if you never raised that, say, $200k from a big name VC to begin with? [ not every product consumer or b2b will not be a 500m/1bn dollar company, thus it's not worth it to raise risk capital and just grind it out!? at a sustainable pace, putting back in what you earned. ] &! bit.ly/1HjO13v
Seed  Round  Party  Round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  Venture  Capital  Series  A  seedround  seedfunding  traction  business  model  Silicon  Valley  economies  of  scale  pageviews  Unicorn  valuation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Snapchat Solicits Longer Content By Ditching Tap-And-Hold-To-Watch | TechCrunch
bit.ly/1NAmQWu "he's showing that he can make practical decisions that benefit the Snapchat users, even if it means losing something that was fundamental to Snapchat's product itself." // But doesn't he give up the 'attention grab/focus' feature for long-form content and thus also loosing share of the snacking %' !!?? long-term we will see what Snapchat will become and be eventually worth. Because it won't be a Facebook. It could turn out to be a Twitter with problems in monetisation (turning a profit and meeting growth stage investors expectations - current valuation ... at IPO and post-IPO one, two years on.) Gary might be right about putting yourself out of business than letting the other guys do it for you. But Snapchat (Mr Spiegel) may have been forced to abandon its 'differentiation' in order to meet valuation expectations by appealing to a broader potential user base to use it more, like to read news & consumer other types of content than Snapchats ( P2P or B2C versions ).
Snapchat  snacking  attention  span  user  behaviour  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  valuation  Evan  Spiegel  product  management  consumer  product  Social  Media  Social  Network  Core  Value  Proposition  product  experience  Design  Minimal  Viable  Product/Market  Fit  Officer  differentiate  differentiation  Twitter  Facebook  business  model  Unicorn  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  growth  round  Silicon  Valley 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Sacca: Bad Deals Are Being Done in Silicon Valley - Bloomberg Business
min 3 - normal people have been prices out of SV, SF, Palo Alto and around the region. sw engineers with entitelment and very little compassion. // bloom.bg/1I8NCAM &! bloom.bg/1Hzb5za &! bloom.bg/1BaVBji &! bloom.bg/1Fd2zQf (Amazon, Fb, Google, eBay, all had cash flow during its growth past IPO, Twitter ops too expensive compared to scale, living beyond its means. does not need to invest in warehouses (Amazon) nor data centers (Google)) // &! bloom.bg/1e8mFGd &! bloom.bg/1L2Accs &! bloom.bg/1INBZ7N &! bloom.bg/1TgmWqi &! http://lowercasecapital.com/2015/06/03/what-twitter-can-be-2/ &! http://lowercasecapital.com/2015/05/21/i-bleed-aqua/ - Sarah Lacy from pando argues, he bleeds green - pando.com/2015/06/11/the-icahn-was-coming-from-inside-the-house-why-dick-costolos-ouster-changes-the-valley/ &! pando.com/2015/06/12/im-more-similar-to-elon-the-5-silliest-things-chris-sacca-said-yesterday/
Chris  Sacca  Silicon  Valley  ecosystem  Twitter  runway  burn  rate  cash  flow  business  model  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  hunt  for  yield  distortion  growth  round  SPV  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  late-stage  funding  Private  Market  Private  Equity  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  cash-is-king  Bill  Gurley  Unicorn  Hype  Cycle  inflation  Venture  Capital  Micro  VC  Angel  Investor  war  for  talent 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Who Will Be Hurt Most When The Tech Bubble Bursts? Not VCs | TechCrunch
In a nutshell, FOMO is driving many investors in a hustle to be a part of the next Facebook or Twitter and put in huge investments for a fraction of stake. And, they don’t see much risk in it as long as they get the downside protection. [ growth round = rocket fuel splashed onto stuff to acquire more customers and market share (basically, but not always) ] [...] Someday, pretty soon, these will be put to the test, and valuations based on visibility of earnings will matter again. A few will succeed of course, but several others will fall – it remains to be seen how miserably. VCs will most likely walk away with their invested money, if not more. It’s the employees and founders who will see their million-dollar dreams crash and burn. [living beyond ur means & betting dollars you dont have on a time that seems further away than u can even guess (secular stagnation)] [lack of income growth (across the western world) thus disposable income (discretionary spending) is also not helping]
Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  operations  Bill  Gurley  Unicorn  runway  FOMO  Venture  Capital  growth  round  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  Private  Market  Private  Equity  SPV  bubble  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  disinflation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  western  world  business  model  revenue  revenues  fiscal  policy  income  growth  USA  OECD  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  disposable  income  policy  error  Taper  policy  folly  monetary  policy  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  1%  Super  Rich  on-demand  convenience  Share  Economy  labour  labour  economics  discretionary  spending  Schuldenbremse  PIGS  Brexit  Grexit  currency  war  macroeconomics  Pact  Europe  productivity  Lohnzurückhaltung  job  creation  globalisation  globalization  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  flat  world  borderless  competitive  Future  of  Work  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  economic  history  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  demographic  bubble  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Unicorn sugar crash | PandoDaily
liquidation preferences // // &! http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2015/05/14/the-most-important-advice-i-could-give-you-about-unicorns/ - So here’s advice I give people all the time when they’re raising money. Narratives matter. Narratives are memorable. I’m not talking about raising money at a billion dollars. I’m talking about making your company memorable by describing it with a narrative that people will later remember. Showing people your features or even your recent performance lacks context and won’t be memorable. Your business needs to be cast in a story that puts it into perspective. Why is your market broken? Why is your solution 10x better? Why are you the unique person to solve this problem? Why is it a really big market? Why is it ready for disruption? Why is now the right time? How do you remain defensible?
Unicorn  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  growth  round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Silicon  Valley  pitch  deck  valuation  speculative  speculation 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
One Thing All the Billion-Dollar Unicorns Have in Common | Re/code
[Granting liquidation preferences ie 2x or 3x to your investors/private equity/spv just so to get this growth round (covering burn) closed, is showing you not believing in your ability and product and company to make a profit now or in the very near future. Really? Liquidation preferences are anti VCish, everyone is not in the same boat. An addicts behaviour. Box granted in its last private round by PE, liquidation preferences and a guaranteed timeline to IPO both punitive, also bc timeline for IPO could not be met, both hurt the company and existing shareholders bc of dilution of their existing shares value.] “It turns out that for companies of a certain size, it’s not that hard to get to unicorn status, provided they’re willing to give their investors a lot of assurances that essentially cover their potential losses. The one thing common in every one of these funding deals, the firm says, that in every case — all 37 of them — investors demanded a ‘liquidation preference.'”
Unicorn  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Silicon  Valley  SPV  growth  round  hunt  for  yield  Private  Equity  burn  rate  runway  business  model  Venture  Capital  Mutual  Fund  Hedge  Fund  termsheet  liquidation  preferences 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Naval Ravikant to VCs: “You can lie to your LPs, but don’t lie to yourselves” | PandoDaily
“There was so much innovation being thrown around—moveable carry, geographic portfolio, unbundling and more. Many were coming up to me later saying the ideas were flying at them too fast. That’s exactly what’s happening in the market.” Even if you don’t know what those terms mean, the important takeaway is that even the stodgiest VCs are going to have to start acting more like the entrepreneurs they serve because the market is only getting more competitive with the ways to fund becoming far more varied and “hackable.” [and add Corporate Accelerators, Incubators and Venture Funds] [...] restrictions LPs put on funds: things like how much you can invest, what percentage of a fund you can invest in follow on rounds of existing companies, what sector you invest in, whether you can invest personally if the fund invests as a group, etc.
Venture  Capital  angel-list  Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  SPV  Private  Equity  IPO  growth  Sand  Hill  Road  Silicon  Valley  500  Start-ups  Rocket  Internet  ycombinator  Accelerator  TechStars  Seed  Camp  Incubator  niche  vertical  Secondary  Market  a16z  s23p  hunt  for  yield  distortion  Signal  vs.  Noise  wantrepreneur  economics  of  abundance  abundance  marginal  cost  MicroVC  Party  Round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  ecosystem 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Building A Moat In A Bubble: Navigating Today’s Financing Environment | TechCrunch
But building an operating plan that depends on successively larger and higher-priced rounds to materialize in the future could mean disaster. If you find yourself too fixated on that deep moat you’re building around your business, you may just fall right into it yourself. Too often, entrepreneurs let the amount of capital available to them determine how to operate their business rather than the other way around. Every company has a natural cadence of growth that needs to be respected, regardless of the external fundraising environment. There’s a limit to how many high-caliber engineers, salespeople, and marketing executives companies can recruit and train in a given period – trying to hire too much faster could mean the quality bar gets lowered on new employees. For consumer-facing services, attempting to launch into hyper-growth mode through paid marketing — when basic things like user experience and retention still need to be addressed — could prove harmful in the long run. << !!!
Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  2015  growth  round  Seed  Angel  Investor  hunt  for  yield  MVP  Product/Market  Fit  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  fiduciary  responsibility  Private  Market 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Zenefits Is Tagged With a $4.5 Billion Valuation After Just Two Years - Digits - WSJ
Zenefits raises $500M C at $4.5B valuation led by @Fidelity & TPG; provides automated cloud HR solutions incl hiring, payroll, time off; generates rev acting as insurance broker; now claims 10k business clients, says 70% of client co emps purchase insurance; each emp generates $450/yr for Zenefits; expects $100M ARR in Jan, up from $20M ARR last Jan; has 1k emps, plans to hire 1.3k (sales and marketing/advertising) more over next 3 yrs; raised $584M to date &! http://pando.com/2015/05/06/zenefits-raises-500-million-for-its-hr-software-and-insurance-hybrid-beating-off-new-customers-with-a-stick/
Zenefits  Unicorn  growth  round  Private  Market  Private  Equity 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
You Need To Be A Billion Just To Make A Million | TechCrunch
[ especially consumer apps being hit driven business, already, that can go out of fashion as quickly as they came, might be a flash in a pan like Secret & work only on the SV/SF ] Competition in the Valley has started reaching a new peak, with candidates demanding all kinds of accoutrements just to change jobs. But it’s not just recruiting that has become more challenging. Sales, marketing, public relations — essentially every task that a startup has to do is just more difficult today given this cutthroat environment. The only way to respond to the higher threshold has been to raise ever more capital, and earlier as well. We now have the rise of the “instant unicorn” that can raise hundreds of millions of capital in just the first months of a company’s existence. That means companies are already worth billions, before they may have made their first million dollars in revenue or gotten their first million users. That’s the new normal, and founders have to be ready to adapt.
Silicon  Valley  San  Francisco  barriers  to  entry  distortion  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  A  Round  Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  hunt  for  yield  Private  Market  competitive  advantage  ecosystem  burn  rate  runway  MVP  Product/Market  Fit  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  unintended  consequences  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Venture  Capital  Private  Equity  growth  growth  hacking  growth  hacker  structural  imbalance  Impediments  creative  destruction  Unicorn  competitiveness  competition  competitive  Signal  vs.  Noise  allocation  attention  span  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  Silicon  Alley  HR  human  resources 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Rocket Internet’s Foodpanda Gobbles Up $100M More Led By Goldman Sachs | TechCrunch
[ Smartphone aka connected device aka mini computer. Remote control for your life. ] Yet, clearly investors like Goldman Sachs see huge potential in on-demand verticals in emerging markets, where consumers typically leapfrog wired internet for the mobile internet on smartphones. “We believe that Foodpanda has a tremendous opportunity to cement its emerging markets leadership position in the coming years. It is our expectation that the company innovative, value-added offerings will lead Foodpanda to be the winner in online food delivery within the markets in which it operates,” said Ian Friedman of Goldman Sachs Investment Partners.
Rocket  Internet  Foodpanda  Delivery  Hero  convenience  on-demand  Services  Industry  service  service  economy  Sector  Jobs  mobile  phone  mobile  homescreen  mobile  first  Smartphone  disposable  income  Private  Equity  growth  round  asset  allocation  GoldmanSachs  Goldman  Sachs 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
New stats show raising Seed money from big VCs increases survival. (The opposite of what everyone in the Valley says) | PandoDaily
(2) Don’t do a “party round” (2) Don’t raise money from a major VC. They will only follow on with the best companies and the signaling risk if they say no can be damning. [...] The companies who raised funds from large VC firms did better than those who raised funds from micro-VCs. [...] The anecdotal stuff is true & the data is true. The answer to how thats possible lies, as everything else in venture world does, with a massive range of quality & low barriers to get in. [...] the # of firms who invest at least $1 million a quarter 4 at least four straight quarters, there are only a paltry 97 firms left in the industry. [...] Raising big institutional funds is hard. Even shitty big VC firms have 2 meet some kind of bar 2 get that money — which is increasingly disappearing in the US. [...] [ hypothesis/thesis of micro-VC is flawed & opportunistic of lower Start-up cost 2 get from idea 2 MVP 2 Product/Market Fit with some traction. higher delta between good & bad co&mVC&angel ]
Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Venture  Capital  Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  Party  Round  distortion  hunt  for  yield  economic  history  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  technological  history  technological  progress  Micro-VC  VC  Product/Market  Fit  post-traction  Series  A  MVP  meritocracy  meritocratic  Accelerator  ycombinator  Seed  Camp  TechStars  500  Start-ups 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
The Micro VC Shakeout | TechCrunch
NIRP, QE, hunt for yield and FOMO (on Silicon Valley) created the conditions for people from SV and around, to create a small fund! Period. mass of micro vcs, seed funds, accelerators and angels is a symptom. // people become fearless, ... warren buffet saying 'Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful' // VCs and Private Equity, for growth rounds, stab each other in the back to be in into the next Unicorn's growth round << Greedy
Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  barriers  to  entry  complexity  unintended  consequences  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  asset  allocation  ecosystem  FOMO  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  Accelerator  distortion  Unicorn  growth  Private  SPV  Wall  Street  bubble 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
CEO Supper Club: Why Box.net's Aaron Levie Has So Much Gray Hair - YouTube
3:00 - when you are profitable and bootstrapped, you have the bigger lever to negotiate a growth round "make us your best offer."
bootstraped  bootstrapping  bootstrapped  Venture  Capital  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  termsheet  growth  round 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
(Founder Stories) Instagram-Backer Steve Anderson: Forget The Billion-Dollar Exits | TechCrunch
“the reality also was on Sand Hill Road everyone talks about the billion-dollar exits, and if you look at the history of the last 15 years, there has not been that many billion dollar exits … it turns out that the average exit over the last 10 years on average has been $100-million, and so I was thinking to myself well if I owned 10% of a $100-million outcome that is real money for me, and my co-founders and anybody else and so why isn’t there anybody whose capital was aligned and incented for that outcome?” // A Round is post-traction round. Decision has to be made whether to invest (A Round), dilute yourself, drive burn rate up acquiring more customers than normal rate vs cash flow positive Start-up that grows organically with rising revenues and staying cash flow positive. Fork in the road can be a credit line from VC. // VC's have to bet & have 2 invest 2 return the fund & more. Sometimes its not in the interest of the founder & company economics that got only ~<250m exit horizon.
Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  A  Round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Venture  Capital  2011  Silicon  Valley 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Slack's massive funding round is everything amazing and insane about the startup bubble | The Verge
[ COMPETITION 4 HOT DEAL, Private Market (Private Equity) highest bidder wins. Thus to get in, people make compromises. ] "It’s the best time ever in the history of the world, or at least the tech industry, to raise money. Will it get better? It’s possible. Six months from now, we might say darn it, we should have waited," Butterfield told me. "On the other hand it’s a pretty amazing deal. In a certain respect it would have been irresponsible not to take it for five-ish percent of the company on clean terms." For those not familiar with venture capital, Butterfield means he only had to give up a small percentage of the ownership in Slack to get this new funding, and that the deal didn't come with a bunch of crazy terms which favored the new investors. [...] [ also mentioned 20-30% rise in HR cost compared to last year! << SF/SV becomes prohibitive for bootstrapping & even for Seed/Angel backed start-ups w 2-5m. Run out of time (MVP fit) bc run out of cash bc high local burn rate. ]
Slack  Unicorn  growth  round  Silicon  Valley  San  Francisco  distortion  Private  Market  Private  Equity  Venture  Capital  SAAS  Enterprise  2.0  valuation  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
[PREMONEY 2014] Venture-nomics: The Explosion Of Micro-Funds & The LP Fatigue Epidemic - YouTube
(1) fundy changes, how little it costs to get sw product/company off the ground. [...] (X) Private Market keeps lots of value creation to itself, much longer time to IPO & Wall Street' short-term demands. // // see also other [PREMONEY 2014] videos on this channel
Venture  Capital  2014  2015  Open  Source  cloudcomputing  Cloudstorage  SPV  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  Crowd  Funding  Private  Market  Wall  Street 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Cloud HR Startup Zenefits Is Looking To Raise A Giant New Round Of Funding | TechCrunch
Aims 2 raise up2 $500M at $3B+ valuation; Zenefits prev said it expected $100M ARR by '15; expects GAAP rev of $50M+ this yr; prev raised $83.6M // Free SAAS, makes money by receiving commissions from insurers. [NEEDS SALES & MARKETING hires to sustain growth trajectory and justification of valuation multiple.] By the end of 2014, Zenefits had around 500 employees, according to sources, but that number is expected to quadruple by the end of 2015. Last year, the company said it wanted to hire around 1,300 employees over the next 3 years. [Capturing Marketshare USA/Canada - hitting it with the baseball bat.] // youtu.be/KporpXG0XK8 min6 direct marketing/e-mail/hustle/hands on sales pitch > COO/Accounting/HR // youtu.be/7KmjzfK3f38 min 11 Start-up struggle, figuring it out along the way but having a sense // (2015) youtu.be/8DwlS_6jLAo "Hyperscaling Inside Sales" &! YC W2013 application video - youtu.be/-S83fysRwn4
valuation  Silicon  Valley  Zenefits  HR  Unicorn  growth  round  enterprise  2.0  SAAS  SPV  business  model  customer  acquisition  user  churn  customer  churn  user  acquisition  marketing  Box  DropBox  Salesforce  ZenDesk  user  experience  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  operations  freemium  scaling  LTV  scale  human  resources  hiring  Core  Product  Value  Proposition  sales 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Forward Partners - Your unfair advantage
Nic Brisbourne - Managing Partner at Forward Partners | Silicon Real LIVE - youtu.be/7oxJ-OO1um8 // ex-DFJ (Series A&B) // is on website, it says, focused on e-commerce, but does/did also consumer and some enterprise/dev tools. // they also have drop-in office hours - theequitykicker.com/2014/10/24/tips-attending-office-hours/ // 9:05 - Finding Tech Co-Founder is difficult, business founders have to sell themselves really hard. Same in SV, and UK. // 24:15 don't build lonely MVP, build one that resonates, slow down to speed up during feedback time and crystallising MVP to specific customer+own vision (balance) to the point where it fly's off the shelve // optimism with critical thinking (balance.) // Board to set focus and resolve problems. Staying on the same page (ben horrowitz book) // London Start-up Scene Ecosystem, its a marathon. TC reporting is not conducive to portray a realistic picture of Start-up struggle. // &! Philippe Botteri - Accel Partners - youtu.be/YIbGP-2LYLk
Venture  Capital  UK  London  Start-up  Scene  Europe  Scene  Seed  Round  seedround  seedfunding  wisdom-of-the-crowd  MVP  Accel  Partners  Forward  Partners 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
[PreMoney MIAMI] Upfront Ventures, Mark Suster, "Venture Outlook 2015 - Goldrush or Fool's Gold" - YouTube
(1) Change from Sales Funnel to Funnel of Intent on Mobile and Social Media. Lower Marketing/Early user acquisition cost at scale. And tap to credit cards to with one click through third party Platforms. And also Open Source Software Stacks and buying 'by time' the hardware stack on Google, AWS or Azure is paradigm shift. Results also in noise one has to break through first - raising the bar (by user choice) for everyone. (2) min10 - Value Creation held inside Private Market through growth & late-stage investing instead of IPO with single-class share structure with wobbily business numbers 'help you god that you aren't out 24m later' because of impatient Wall Street. (3) min14 Series D valuations show Private Market highest bidder wins phenomenon. But Valuations are up across the board. And with more Seed/Angel Investors, Seed Valuations are also bid up higher compared to ABC. // &! min29 youtu.be/25TxrhsXFvs - 500 Startups, Dave McClure "4 Years of Moneyball - What Have We Learned"
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  A  Round  growth  Venture  Capital  Sales  Funnel  Funnel  of  Intent  mobile  first  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  Social  Media  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  secular  stagnation  productive  investment  Private  Market  Platform  TOS  2000  dot.com  bubble  2008  IPO  Wall  Street  single-class  share  structure  SPV  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  late-stage  funding  Unicorn  seedround  seedfunding  angelinvestor  angel-list  Angel  Investor  angelinvestors  incomplete  information  complexity  unintended  consequences  Dave  McClure  Mark  Suster  UpFront  Ventures  500  Start-ups  paradigm  shift 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
[PreMoney MIAMI] 500 Startups, Dave McClure "4 Years of Moneyball - What Have We Learned" - YouTube
Angel Investors/Seed and maybe even A Round is about jumping on and doubling down on companies that do well, others don't know about. It's information arbitrage. Wall Street Services Cottage Industry aka Economic Forecaster and Stock Pickers make their money with supposed information arbitrage. But it's just a cottage industry. ... Where Seed/Angel Investors do hustle, network, keep things private, sharing of non-public information with their best buddy and co-investor. // min 34 talks about Silicon Valley Ecosystem. (1) Optimism and Believe. German culture about fear of failure does not support it well in public. (2) supporting structures (3) capital at every stage.
500  Start-ups  Dave  McClure  Seed  Round  Venture  Capital  information  arbitrage  Private  Market  incomplete  information  Silicon  Valley  Angel  Investor  angel-list  Hustle  Networking  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  culture  society  Germany  failure  Leistungsdruck  ecosystem  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Mike Judge Explains Silicon Valley’s Success and Offers Hints About Season 2 - YouTube
min 15 - ideas on the fringe (looking crazy at the start and get ridiculed), and succeed, happen in the Valley. Everyone else can do the ideas that are not on the fringe. But every ideas VCs get pitched are fringe in general. SV = be on the fringe, work at the fringe, live on the fringe. When they work, they tend to work really really well. || Fear of Bubble & Hype Cycle >> Reduce risk, don't get sloppy. || end - "Start-up life is struggle." but public perception is like the lego movie everyone is singing 'everything is awesome' and dancing ...
Start-Up  lesson  Silicon  Valley  Start-Up  advice  Venture  Capital  Seed  Round  A  Round  creative  destruction 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Gillmor Gang: Money for Nothing - Gillmor Gang | TechCrunch TV
min 42 // A Round is now a "post-traction" investment aka proven product & business model. A Round is an investment to scale it up, put it up a bunch of gears. // Keith Teare from chat.center (tcrn.ch/1IWFQ1X) people now doing pre-seed, seed, seed prime & bridge funding via existing investors; figuring out Product/Market fit, traction, funnel, etc. Now more than ever a hits driven business. // see also tcrn.ch/1c54UpN // Complexity of phenomenon - symptoms, causes and tangents; biases, selection bias, pattern matching, bidding up hot deals in the private market where the highest bidder will get the deal - irrationality of accepting those valuations and the founders Unicorn-status need, hunt for yield, trendy - the future, when doing 'hard things' becomes fashionable (ie Reality TV, TV Series & a shallow Channel 4's How To Be A Young Billionaire) then beware, negative yields for secure investments (bonds and corp debt), perceived 'conservative' value vs private bid up bubble potential.
Seed  Round  A  Round  traction  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  Silicon  Valley  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  behavioral  finance  bond  bubble  bubbles  equity  bubble  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  complexity  growth  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  pattern  matching  selection  bias  confirmation  bias  bias  Unicorn  Wall  Street  Private  Mutual  Fund  Hedge  Fund  Venture  Capital  savings  glut  productive  investment  business  model  Snapchat  WhatsApp  Instagram  Slack  Uber  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Share  Economy  Services  Industry  Niedriglohnsektor  incomplete  information  economic  history  marginal  cost  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  faultlines  Product/Market  Fit  value  creation  1000  True  Fans  Core  Product  Proposition  differentiate  differentiation 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
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