asterisk2a + repression   91

Tyler Cowen: "The Great Stagnation", Michael Vassar & Cowen Debate at Singularity Summit 2011
gains are harder to come by! low hanging fruit gone. [...] VISION IS NEEDED TO GET THE JOB DONE.
secular  stagnation  western  world  underinvestment  R&D  R&D  innovation  Innovators  Dilemma  rentier  rent-seeking  oligopol  oligopoly  winner  take  all  babyboomers  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  austerity  triple-lock  pension  pension  obligation  recovery  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  No  Representation  lobby  Career  Politicians  OAP  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  sick  population  health  crisis  economic  damage  climate  crisis  climate  change  global  warming  productivity  gap  output  gap  GDP  measurement  GNP  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  BRIC  creative  destruction  Mobile  Debt  Super  Cycle  servitude  servicing  service  income  tax  receipts  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Moore's  Law  COP21  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  OECD  IMF  crony  capitalism  Privileged  Establishment  shareholder  capitalism  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  shareholder  value  revolving  door  Wall  Street  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  disposable  income  trickle-down  economics  neoliberal  neoliberalism  discretionary  spending  renewable  energy  infrastructure  investment  Smart  Grid  AI  artificial  intelligence  augmented  intelligence  Autonomous  Cars  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  New  stagnation 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Piketty: EU should welcome one million immigrants a year
"The European Union has the capacity to absorb a large flow of migrants, one million per year in terms of inflow net of outflow," he said.
"This is exactly what we had between 2000 and 2010 and this was working in the sense that unemployment was being reduced.
"The problem is - with the austerity policies and with the recession - now we are in a situation where it's very difficult in particular with southern Europe, with the terrible economic situation that we have created there in particular." [...] The population of the EU has only risen by 0.2% a year since 1995, he argues, compared to 1.2% for the world's population over the same period.
According to Eurostat, the official statistical arm of the European Commission, a total of 3.4 million people came to the EU during 2013. Some 2.8 million left, leaving a net immigration figure of around 600,000. [S]low growth [...] exacerbated not just by a lack of immigration but also by austerity policies aimed at reducing public expenditure. [EU in recession 2011 forward]
immigration  migration  refugee  crisis  Integrationspolitik  Sozialpolitik  youth  unemployment  austerity  GFC  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  ageing  population  demographic  bubble  social  safety  net  pension  obligation  economic  history  welfare  state  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  plutocracy  oligarchy  Precariat  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  hartz-iv  Aufstocker  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  ALG2  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Minijob  part-time  employment  Contractor  self-employment  Zero  Hour  Contract  underinvestment  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Robert  Skidelsky  bank  bailout  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Leadership  Wall  Street  shareholder  capitalism  crony  capitalism  lobby  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  democracy  European  Union  UK  Elizabeth  Warren  Paul  Krugman  Robert  Reich  Joseph  Stiglitz  carbon  tax  policy  folly  policy  error  right-wing  far-right  Rechtsruck  recovery  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  finite  resources  resource  depletion  GNP  GDP  GDP  measurement  profit  maximisation  profit  shareholder  policy  income  inequality  income 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Ex-MPC member says rates will stay low until 2021 - BBC News
Blanchflower: Global economy "feels a little bit like 2008" Interest rates will likely fall further in Britain and remain at near record low levels until 2021, [...] Blanchflower described the backdrop to the committee's decision in March 2009 to cut rates to 0.5% as catastrophic. He said the MPC at the time had wished to avoid a death spiral. Britain was plunged into its deepest-ever recession in 2008 as confidence in banks collapsed and investment dried up. "We cut rates in November 2008 by 150 basis points (1.5%). It was clear that we should have cut by more but didn't because of the panic that it might have caused," he said. "It was absolutely clear that this (the financial crisis) was something we had not seen in a generation. We learned that the scale of the shock was enormous." [...] mortgage rates are 31% lower than before the crisis, while savers may have lost £106bn due to record low rates. //&! bbc.in/1YeqV87 &! bbc.in/1LGOxAf - central banks understated deflation pressure!
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  UK  global  economy  recovery  aggregate  demand  property  bubble  underinvestment  austerity  George  Osborne  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  mortgage  market  macroprudential  policy  Mark  Carney  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  subprime  car  loan  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  GFC  household  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  David  Blanchflower  Danny  Blanchflower  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  distortion  Super  Cycle  junk  bond  Gini  coefficient  deflationary  deflation  Taper  QT  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  BIS  ECB  Fed  BOJ  credit  bubble  PBOC  hot-money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
German Banks Told To Start Hoarding Cash | Zero Hedge
In order to generate artificial economic growth, the ECB wants banks to make as many loans as possible, no matter how stupid or idiotic. They believe that economic growth is simply a function of loans. The more money that’s loaned out, the more the economy will grow. This is the sort of theory that works really well in an economic textbook. But it doesn’t work so well in a history textbook. Cheap money encourages risky behavior. It gives banks an incentive to give ‘no money down’ loans to homeless people with no employment history. It creates bubbles (like the housing bubble from 10 years ago), and ultimately, financial panics (like the banking crisis from 8 years ago). Banks are supposed to be conservative, responsible managers of other people’s money. When central bank policies penalize that practice, bad things tend to happen.
Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Venture  Capital  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  reflate  reflation  recovery  GFC  debtoverhang  liquidity  trap  zombie  banks  deleveraging  Debt  Super  Cycle  secular  stagnation  consumer  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  household  car  loan  credit  card  student  loan  student  loan  student  Bubble  generation  rent  OMT  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  Leiharbeit  Zeitarbeit  Agenda  2010  low  pay  low  income  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  transmission  mechanism  velocity  of  money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Central bankers on the defensive as weird policy becomes even weirder | Business | The Guardian
Growth is tepid, productivity is poor, and inflation is too low: all is not going according to policymakers’ masterplans [...] As far as the OECD is concerned, monetary policy is being forced to take too much of the strain. Its chief economist Catherine Mann made the point that lasting recovery required three things: stimulative monetary policy; activist fiscal policy; and structural reform. The OECD wants the second of these ingredients to be added to the recipe in the form of increased spending on public infrastructure, something it says would more than pay for itself at a time when governments can borrow so cheaply.
monetary  policy  G20  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  UK  western  world  USA  Japan  Abenomics  George  Osborne  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  productivity  underinvestment  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  Taper  deflationary  deflation  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  zombie  banks  MervynKing  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  discretionary  spending  distortion  property  bubble  disposable  income  productive  investment  austerity  business  confidence  foreign  direct  investment  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  policy  folly  policy  error  short-termism  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  self-regulation  City  of  London  investment  banking  retail  banking  OECD  IMF  KennethRogoff  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  trust 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Mervyn King: new financial crisis is 'certain' without reform of banks | Business | The Guardian
The former Bank of England governor says in his new book that imbalances in the global economy makes a crash inevitable [...] GFC was the fault of the financial system, not individual greedy bankers, in his new book, The End Of Alchemy: Money, Banking And The Future Of The Global Economy [...] “Without reform of the financial system, another crisis is certain, and the failure ... to tackle the disequilibrium in the world economy makes it likely that it will come sooner rather than later,” Lord King wrote. [...] global central banks were caught in a “prisoner’s dilemma” - unable to raise interest rates for fear of stifling the economic recovery, the newspaper reported. [... blame] broken financial system. [...] failure of a system, and the ideas that underpinned it, [...] “Only a fundamental rethink of how we, as a society, organise our system of money and banking will prevent a repetition //&! dailym.ai/21tPG5y
bank  crisis  banking  crisis  investment  banking  self-regulation  retail  banking  Greed  financial  product  regulation  regulators  City  of  London  George  Osborne  Mark  Carney  macroprudential  policy  property  bubble  austerity  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  economic  history  GFC  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  free  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  faultlines  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  distortion  financial  repression  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  China  Brazil  credit  bubble  2016  reflate  reflation  junk  bond  revolving  debt  household  debt  mortgage  market  consumer  debt  UK  IMF  OECD  credit  card  debt  car  loan  BOE  MervynKing  ECB  Fed  Europe  deflationary  deflation  Gini  coefficient  inequality  MarioDraghi  Taper  QT  bonuses  bonus  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  New  Normal  speculative  bubbles  Richard  Koo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Inflation: Vermögenspreise stiegen 2015 im Rekordtempo - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Wohl dem, der Immobilien, Anteile an Familienfirmen oder Sammlerobjekte besitzt. Die Preise für Vermögenswerte sind 2015 so stark gestiegen wie kaum je zuvor. Schlechter sieht es für Normalsparer aus.
financial  repression  distortion  hot-money  Betongold  Beton  Gold  Germany  speculative  speculation  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  income  distribution  hunt  for  yield  property  bubble  UK  foreign  direct  investment  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  austerity  fiscal  policy  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  emerging  middle  class  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  economic  history 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
This Letting Agent Admits The Housing Shortage Is Good News For Landlords - BuzzFeed News
[ Lord Adair Turner book & Richard Koo; banks tend 2 lend 2 property & land rather than productivity/businesses. risk averse, if the family cant pay the mortgage any more, than at least u have not lost all the money! less risky! Its also partly rentier behaviour of banks. // also BOE has to be concerned about future disposable income; rent & utilities eating up 50%-75% of income thus less for consumption! ] “Landlords’ balance sheets are looking healthier than at any point since 2014, and property investors are looking at an excellent rate of return from their portfolios.” Gill warned that changes to stamp duty announced in chancellor George Osborne’s Autumn Statement and due to take effect on 1 April – people selling buy-to-let investments will pay an extra 3% – were bad news for landlords. But overall, the “consistent and developing lack of housing for across all tenures, for a spiralling population” meant the level of demand for rental properties would not reduce, he said.
property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  macroprudential  policy  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  Housing  Crisis  social  affordable  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  aggregate  demand  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  policy  folly  policy  error  consumer  debt  household  debt  budget  deficit  recovery  mortgage  market  credit  bubble  GFC  bank  bailout  BOE  zombie  banks  rentier  rent-seeking  Richard  Koo  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  zombie  consumer  industrial  policy  economic  history  Mark  Carney  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  herding  herd  hunt  for  yield  leverage  margin  trading  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  VAR  CDO  CDS  risk  aversion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  inequality  UK  generational  contract  lost  generation  constituency  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  general  election  2015  general  election  2020  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Help-to-buy loan scheme nets Treasury £213m in paper profit | Money | The Guardian
[ gov is not co-owner of private property! Make away with Nurse Bursaries and other gov support for education. But support the property price! by keeping supply always lower than demand. and use policy to increase demand w subsidies! where to put their savings! & subsidy for builders ] Rising house prices across much of England mean a government scheme to help buyers of newbuild property may have made more than £200m for the Treasury in its first two-and-a-half years. The help-to-buy equity loan scheme gives buyers an interest-free loan for five years in return for a percentage stake in their property. When the home is sold, the buyer returns the same percentage of the sale price, meaning that any fall or rise in house prices affects the return. Analysis by property firm Hometrack and shared with the Guardian suggests that a surge in house prices in some areas means the total value of homes bought through the scheme since its launch in April 2013 has increased by more than £1bn.
property  bubble  UK  speculative  bubbles  Housing  Crisis  affordable  social  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Save  budget  deficit  austerity  constituency  Party  Funding  babyboomers  BOE  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  distortion  financial  repression  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  fairness  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  NPL  subprime  Payday  Loans  car  loan  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Tories  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  Conservative  Party  nasty  short-termism  voter  turnout  disenfranchise  disenfranchised  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productive  investment  recovery  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  secular  stagnation  Privatisation  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  GFC  bank  bailout  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  welfare 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Interview With Mohamed El-Erian: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View
7:50 New Normal is secular stagnation and decades-long NIRP, ZIRP, QE distortion. structural, secular. no cyclical recovery. but long secular challenges; prolonged period of low growth. // also inequality! // currently policy makers subsidise debtors, subsidise creditors - financial repression. promote risk taking. // richard koo would not agree with el-erian's notion that gov balance sheets are same as household balance sheets. // 12:10 demographic issue! political. and economic elements in it of secular stagnation. [...] borrowing growth // rise of far-right! // corps sitting on cash // inequality! // bc of lived in artificial world of borrowed growth, created massive divergence. // min 15:30 richard koo would not agree that central banks are the only game in town. central banks have complained abt austerity gov. // min 20 - Feds intellectually inflexible. comfort zone. self-regulation & great moderation. // reflation didnt work bc no fixed fundamentals // perfect storm! lost trust.
New  Normal  financial  repression  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  secular  stagnation  GFC  credit  bubble  book  western  world  emerging  middle  class  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Paul  Krugman  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Joseph  Stiglitz  distortion  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  system  retirement  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  far-right  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Pact  Schuldenbremse  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  reflate  reflation  trust  trustagent  distrust  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  public  sentiment  public  perception  bank  bailout  Japan  Abenomics  AIIB  IMF  China  BRIC  self-regulation  Great  Moderation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Inside How Mutual Funds Value Private Tech — The Information
The sudden and sizable valuation markdowns of high-flying private companies like Snapchat, Dropbox and Zenefits by mutual fund investors has been one of the biggest stories in tech, sowing fears that the market is deflating. They’ve also caused consternation among founders, who have had to defend their companies’ earlier valuations to employees.
downround  growth  round  Mutual  Fund  SPV  Uber  Zenefits  Snapchat  Silicon  Valley  DropBox  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  speculative  bubbles  risk  capital  liquidation  preferences  termsheet  asset  allocation  distortion  Lyft  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  hot-money  BRIC  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
The "Tourist" Investors Flooding Silicon Valley With Money Will Go Home One Day - BuzzFeed News
The tourist analogy comes from Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at the German financial company Allianz and former CEO of mutual fund giant Pimco. He fleshes out his theory of “tourist dollars” in his new book, The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse, describing what happens in emerging economies like Brazil and India when investors from the developed world respond to slow economies at home by seeking more profitable climates abroad. Ranjan Roy, a former emerging-market currencies trader who now runs a tech startup, wrote a Medium post this week connecting El-Erian’s “tourist” theory to the mutual fund investors that have flooded Silicon Valley with cash in recent years. The post was pretty convincing, so we decided to see if El-Erian agreed. He does. And he worries about what those tourist dollars are doing to the locals. [...] they don’t re-up [ like VC's and real Angels would do ] [...] push to stretch for return.
hunt  for  yield  distortion  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Silicon  Valley  Party  Round  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hot-money  Mutual  Fund  growth  risk  capital  Venture  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  2015  2016  2014  Unicorn  reflate  reflation  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  India  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  psychology  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Richard  Koo 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Norway seeks to diversify its economy as oil earnings plunge - BBC News
As oil prices have collapsed, it's become clear that Norway has caught what used to be called the Dutch disease - an overreliance on one industry, in this case the oil and gas sector. With its upmarket waterfront restaurants and the Barcode office blocks, the Sorenga dockside development serves as a poignant reminder of how prosperous Norway had become while the going was still good. [...] Unbalanced economy [...] "The oil and gas industry became too strong in our economy, especially during the last four or five years, reflects Prime Minister Erna Solberg. "Most of the growth came from that sector, and our strong currency left some of our traditional industries behind." [...] Household debts have reached more than 200% of annual disposable income [ Dutch Disease; UK & USA = domestic consumption, Germany = exports and its name, London = Finance and wealthy expats/non-doms, Switzerland = exports and its name , China = export, Brazil = commodity export ]
Norway  Aberdeen  Oil  price  commodity  prices  secular  stagnation  2016  2015  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  economic  history  reflate  reflation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  aggregate  demand  Dutch  Disease  distortion  financial  repression  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  unemployment  OPEC 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What's holding back the world economy? | Business | The Guardian
[ continued financialisation of economy / faustian pact ] QE and low interest rates have disproportionately created wealth in the financial sector and inflated asset bubbles. It has done little for the real economy. The rules of the market need to be rewritten [...] dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse. In the US, quantitative easing did not boost consumption and investment partly because most of the additional liquidity returned to central banks’ coffers in the form of excess reserves. [...] private investment did not grow [...] [ QE supported only financial sector and zombie banks and corporations, little to nothing went into the real economy for investment in western world ] [ which leads us to say we are still in a banking crisis per se ]
Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  austerity  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  Student  Bubble  loan  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  wage  stagnation  income  growth  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  mortgage  market  NPL  debt  servitude  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  inequality  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  asset  equity  VIX  volatility  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  aggregate  demand  income  redistribution  repo  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  financial  market  GFC  banking  crisis  retail  banking  investment  banking  hot-money  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  BRIC  rent-seeking  rentier  carbon  tax  economic  damage 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
UK trade deficit widens further as exports suffer | Business | The Guardian
Nevertheless, the UK’s goods trade gap with the rest of the world widened by £1.9bn to a record high of £125bn in 2015. Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: “UK exports have clearly struggled in recent months, as they have been hampered by sterling’s overall strength in 2015, particularly against the euro, and moderate global demand. [...] Recent declines in the value of sterling are expected to support exports sales, though the deteriorating global situation could mitigate against an improved exchange rate. [...] “Nonetheless, any progress in reducing the trade deficit is likely to be extremely slow in the near term, leaving the recovery reliant on domestic demand.” [...] [ you can lower your corp tax, but if your country is shitty in business environment ie infrastructure and employee qualifications and immigration ... nobody wants to do business ]
UK  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  budget  deficit  tax  reciepts  2015  2016  recovery  secular  stagnation  underinvestment  business  investment  austerity  economic  history  global  economy  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  foreign  direct  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  Student  Bubble  debt  servitude  discretionary  spending  government  spending  disposable  income  generation  rent  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BOE  property  Housing  Crisis  George  Osborne  competitiveness  productivity  output  gap  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  corporate  tax  rate  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  immigration  migration  Super  Cycle 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Draft snooper's charter 'fails on spying powers and privacy protections' | World news | The Guardian
Theresa May’s draft “snooper’s charter” bill fails to cover all the intrusive spying powers of the security agencies and lacks clarity in its privacy protections, a parliamentary committee has said. The intelligence and security committee said the draft legislation published by the home secretary suffered from a lack of sufficient time and preparation. It was evident that even those working on the legislation had not always been clear about what it was intended to achieve, it said.
Snoopers  Charter  Theresa  May  GCHQ  NSA  Five  Eyes  War  on  Terror  War  on  Drugs  organised  crime  cyber  crime  cyber  attack  Secret  Courts  Whistleblower  investigative  journalism  democracy  Surveillance-Industrial  Complex  surveillance  state  Orwellian  Internet  Privacy  Privacy  self-censorship  repression  military–industrial  Hegemony  USA  UK  David  Cameron  Career  Politicians  Tories  neoconservatism  neoconservatives  nasty  party  Conservative  oversight  abuse  of  power  transparency  accountability  Separation  of  powers  Justice  System 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
As growth falters, Osborne hopes Mark Carney can keep a lid on interest rates | Business | The Guardian
The chancellor faces lower GDP and lower tax receipts as a result. So it’s vital that consumers’ desire to keep spending isn’t hit by a nasty shock from the Bank [ // Confidence Fairy // ] The Bank of England has downgraded its forecasts for the UK’s GDP growth and the outlook for wages, most likely robbing the exchequer of vital income tax receipts. And without the funds to maintain pensions and health service spending, his critics will gleefully play back the speech from last November during which he declared that Britain was on the road to becoming “the most prosperous and secure of all the major nations of the world”. [...] Yet his words ring hollow when so many of the post-crash problems are still with us, from the burden of high private and public debts to Europe’s rapidly ageing population, which encourage saving over investment, and a reluctance from government and big business to boost capital spending.
George  Osborne  secular  stagnation  2016  2015  Mark  Carney  BOE  consumer  debt  household  debt  mortgage  market  subprime  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  UK  GDP  output  gap  productivity  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  economic  history  austerity  underinvestment  business  investment  public  investment  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  Paul  Krugman  David  Cameron  nasty  party  Conservative  Tories  short-termism  credit  bubble  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Funding  1%  financial  repression  New  Normal  constituency  babyboomers  oligarchy  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  income  inequality  plutocracy  Super  Rich  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  income  growth  low  pay  low  income  wage  growth  economic  growth  precarious  work  Precariat  tax  credit  tax  free  income  corporate  tax  rate  minimum  wage  budget2015  Food  Bank  foreign  direct  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  demographic  bubble  western  world  USA  European  Union  ageing  population  CapEx  Capital  Expenditure  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
GLS-Bank: Kunden sollen Monatsbeitrag zahlen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Zinsen spielen bei der Geldanlage fast keine Rolle mehr. Die Ökobank GLS erwägt jetzt einen radikalen Schritt: Die Kunden sollen einen Monatsbeitrag zahlen, damit die Bank nicht in fragwürdige Geschäfte gedrängt wird.
NIRP  ZIRP  financial  repression  New  Normal  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  distortion  economic  history  liquidity  trap 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Amid market turmoil and confusion, there are four key economic trends shaping society
The UK economy currently gets nowhere near its target of 2%. Inflation would decrease the value of current debts, making them less of a burden. In a world without much inflation, it is hard to get wages up. The worse case scenario is that debt costs increase, as prices and wages stagnate. [ ignoring debt and income growth - stagnation at their peril - youtu.be/KIaXVntqlUE - gov is no household budget, Steve Keen + Richard Koo ] [...] And in this age of austerity, these factors will work against governments seeking to reduce the welfare bill. Recent data shows that, in UK cities, growing numbers of low paid jobs have led to rising claims for welfare such as housing benefits, defeating the government’s aims to reduce spending.
economic  history  secular  stagnation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  inflation  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  minimum  wage  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  tax  credit  housing  benefit  working  tax  credit  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  western  world  GDP  wage  inflation  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  inequality  income  inequality  income  redistribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  monetary  system  monetary  theory  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  banks  monetary  velocity  Niall  Ferguson  NPL  junk  bond  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  China  credit  BRIC  output  gap  productivity  industrial  policy  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  property  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  money  supply  faultlines  global  imbalances  recovery  working  poor  Precariat 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  deposit  levy  MarioDraghi  Abenomics  economic  history  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  recovery  Yen  Euro  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  distortion  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  debt  bubble  New  Normal  financial  repression  faultlines  global  economy  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Japan  UK  secular  stagnation  western  world  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflation  Sweden  Switzerland  China  Yuan  JGB  2016  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Super  Cycle  recession  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
The Deflation Monster Has Arrived | Zero Hedge
the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling. [...] The next thing is to give money to Main Street. [...] Either way, money will be printed out of thin air and given to you. That’s what’s coming next. Possibly after a failed attempt at demanding negative interest rates from the banks. But coming it is. [...] Once people lose faith in their currency all bets are off. The smart people will be those who take their fresh central bank money and spend it before the next guy.
deflationary  deflation  debt  servitude  credit  bubble  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  secular  stagnation  UK  USA  Europe  western  world  Precariat  precarious  work  household  debt  Richard  Koo  GFC  China  recovery  property  bubble  subprime  economic  history  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  capitalism  crony  capitalism  exploitation  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  NPL  sovereign  debt  crisis  private  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bank  bailout  distortion  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  financial  repression  2016  2015  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  fiat  money  fiat  currency  trust  distrust  trustagent 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen... - YouTube
China's Credit Bubble popped. &! Could China Trigger the Crash of 2016? - youtu.be/JRw8JgP-L0A //&! IMF: "Age of America" Will End 2016: Steve Forbes on China - youtu.be/YxCxHM5Ax_k //&! Has The Crash of 2016 Now Begun? What Can & Should Be Done? - youtu.be/JwEDvXYVE_g - Richard Wolff, austerity failed what has been promised "business confidence." Smart money unloading started in 2015. "Silly China-bashing." China has capacity (over capacity) but western world has reached its credit limit! << youtu.be/L4J_n9pTdJQ codependent. //&! youtu.be/ORRPNO2XPDA - still too much debt, austerity flaws, no income growth to serve debt and not cut back on spending (private households), China exporting deflation.
book  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  corporate  state  corporate  media  Wall  Street  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  vested  interest  interest  groups  revolving  door  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  democracy  democracy  Wertegesellschaft  Wegwerfgesellschaft  squeezed  middle  class  neoliberalism  2016  neoliberal  working  poor  Precariat  wage  stagnation  secular  stagnation  western  world  corporate  scandal  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corruption  bribery  Greed  GFC  bank  bailout  austerity  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  tax  code  Rechtsruck  far-right  Rechtsextremismus  refugee  crisis  symptom  Xenophobia  Islamophobia  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  poverty  trap  welfare  state  social  safety  net  USA  Hegemony  China  UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  post-racial  America  crony  capitalism  capitalism  shared  economic  interest  economic  damage  Europe  PIGS  sovereign  crisis  consumer  household  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  IMF  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  New  Normal  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  globalization  globalisation  flat  world  borderless  free  trade  debtoverhang  credit  card  car  loan  mortgage  market  oligarchy 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Nomi Prins-Federal Reserve Transition to Destruction - YouTube
via - http://schiffgold.com/interviews/former-wall-street-insider-some-form-of-bank-bail-ins-will-come-to-us-video/ ||&! QE and ZIRP bad policy, bank and market cuddeling. no mainstreet recovery! trickle-down failed. Private sector can not carry existing minimal momentum forward. policy has not helped people on the ground. // many bubbles created: junk bond/zombie corps, car loans, student loans, property, ... // transition to destruction, volatility is first sign. // market manipulation! // inflated financial system // rise in NPL! where how will they cover that? another bailout? or bail-in. taking depositors haircut. FDIC can't cover that all.
ZIRP  NIRP  book  QE  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  BRIC  China  2015  junk  bond  trickle-down  economics  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  household  debt  UK  USA  BOE  Fed  mandate  Fed  Janet  Yellen  Mark  Carney  MPC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  retail  banking  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  market  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  benbernanke  alangreenspan  dot.com  speculative  bubbles  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  private  debt  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  fiscal  policy  austerity  consumer  debt  credit  card  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debtoverhang  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mainstreet.org  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  crony  capitalism  corporate  debt  bubbles  asset  bubble  correction  mortgage  market  libor  rigging  scandal  trust  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  FX  reserves  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  balance  sheet  recession  Niall  Ferguson  financial  repression  distortion  Pr 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: Good news! B rounds have doubled in value over five years!
B Round! doubling down on (to a certain point) proven ideas as they move to make themselves solid/viable (building business model & continued growth if not even putting some more gasoline on the fire with a B Round - allocation of resources). thus there is competition thus bidding up in a private market. BUT BUT also reflects the rising cost! Rising cost to grow, the war for talent to scale, and the cost in said hubs/ecosystems where the talent are already working on scaling other companies, where rent is sky high and space rare to expand office, ops, ramp up head count, ... // why, on a side note!, ? because global ZIRP, NIRP, QE, hunt for yield, FOMO, property speculation, alternative asset management and allocation (newly minted paper millionaers) have bid up prices in metropolitan and hot cities by credit bubbles around the world. bc financial markets are global, thus your allocation/diversification is global, not limited where ur home addr is. adding to volatiliy too bc of froth!
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  Party  Round  SPV  Venture  Capital  Private  Market  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  B  Round  A  Round  growth  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  2015  cost  of  living  credit  bubble  cost  of  entry  aspirational  leverage  margin  trading  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  Fed  unintended  consequences  burn  rate  runway  ECB  Mutual  Fund  unknown  unkown  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  economic  growth  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  financial  financial  repression  western  world  Developing  BRIC  emerging  complexity  incomplete  information 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &! youtu.be/SZe3issLIb8
Raghuram  Rajan  BIS  centralbanks  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  excess  reserves  speculative  bubbles  reflate  reflation  economic  history  faultlines  credit  bubble  BRIC  2015  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  secular  stagnation  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  globalization  globalisation  financial  market  zombie  banks  savings  glut  business  confidence  business  investment  USA  UK  Europe  China  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  speculative  speculation  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  ECB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  deflationary  deflation  fiscal  policy  irrational  exuberance  panic  hubris  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Taper  book  structural  imbalance  Impediments  reserve  currency  fiat  currency  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  fiscal  deficit  fiscal  stimulus  Germany  austerity  dogma  ideology  credibility  Career  Politicians  Pact  Schuldenbremse  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  complexity  incomplete  information  shadow  banking  uncertainty  volatility  distortion  financial  repression  governance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: In the Valley, pre-seed is a meme. In New York, it’s a necessity
// cost of entry? // unable to make it happen? // Can't you write software from anywhere? // problem, heavily diluted early on approaching A/B, traditional shops don't like the cap table of pre-seed, angels, seed, accelerator & Micro VC's already owning ~+40% ... you come to a traditional A/B shop and not one of the existing investors is actually leading the round or committed in paper do double down? // // from a financial perspective/investment/math --- in the PRIVATE MARKET thrown under the bus by NIRP, QE, hunt for yield and FOMO (looking for their female unicorn or own Zuck) everyone can run 100 burger stands with unlimited/stellar returns in their spreadsheet model (bc cost of capital being 0 or negative). Despite the deflation of price of software & hosting (marginal cost, economics of abundance), Talent got bid up heavily (+200k/y in LA by Snapchat) in certain cities (SV, NY, London) // &! Steen Jakobsen - youtu.be/fnp5ETnKylU - min 16 avg guy does not have access to credit!
Seed  Round  Party  Round  Venture  Capital  Micro  VC  barriers  to  entry  cost  of  entry  London  Start-up  Scene  ecosystem  New  York  Scene  burn  rate  runway  traction  A  Round  seedfunding  funding  Angel  Investor  dilution  cap  table  lesson  advice  liquidation  preferences  hunt  for  yield  2015  distortion  FOMO  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  Limited  Partners  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Wall  Street  asset  bubble  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  Silicon  Valley  Private  Market  Public  Market  reflate  reflation  cost  of  living  valuation  Unicorn  Decacorn  cost  of  leverage  financial  repression  financial  literacy  financial  financial  cycle  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  hubris  panic  irrational  exuberance  retail  banking  investment  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  crisis 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Easy Money Creates the Most Dangerous Bubbles - Bloomberg View
[Money has been slushing arnd in markets speculating, not investing in future & productive, added value goods. big companies are flush 2. easy credit is holding zombie corps of the last century over water. western world is persisting 2 put a banking bailout/crisis in the light of a sovereign debt crisis 2 push idealogical austerity. falling way being, never be able 2 catch up with productivity, output gap, STEM, research, future of work, smart grid & infrastructure, retooling their economy 21st century style.] // "speculation in property markets, amplified by mortgage financing, as a persistent central factor driving economic cycles." [...] the worst bubbles -- those that inflict the most economic pain -- tend to involve not just speculation, but a surge in easy lending and increasing leverage. [...] economic downturns following credit bubbles were generally worse and lasted longer. [...] danger of leverage cycle. // [ easy credit & debt fuelled recovery of assets, not fundamentals ]
book  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  economic  history  zombie  banks  Mark  Blyth  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  business  confidence  business  investment  economic  damage  2015  faultlines  structural  imbalance  structural  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  education  policy  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  recovery  western  world  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Smart  Grid  Software  Is  Eating  The  GFC  Career  Politicians  status  quo  social  contract  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  banking  crisis  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  financial  market  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Impediments  distortion  economic  model  economic  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  financial  incentive  financial  repression  financial  literacy  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Fed  monetary  stimulus  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  BIS  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  PBOC  China  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  academia  academics  economic-thought  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  hubris  panic  consumer  confidence  confidence  trust  banking  investment  banking  distr 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! bit.ly/1fQ2lcq // &! bloom.bg/1Euf6peh // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
Draghi  Put  ECB  ELA  TLTRO  LTRO  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  distortion  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  MarioDraghi  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trust  devaluation  currency  debasement  currency-war  fiat  currency  trustagent  distrust  Richard  Koo  fiscal  stimulus  austerity  fiscal  policy  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Mark  Blyth  inequality  New  Normal  economic  history  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  output  gap  productivity  UK  Europe  Germany  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  Thomas  Piketty  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  economic  growth  Rechtsruck  SNP  European  Election  2014  UKIP  AfD  NPD  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  babyboomers  Lügenpresse  manufactured  consent  PR  spin  doctor  propaganda  populism  Labour  Party  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  poverty  Gini  poverty  policy  coef 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
On Second Thought, China Slowdown Will Hit Global-Growth Outlook - Bloomberg Business
Fitch Ratings said in a note Wednesday that while pessimism on China’s short-term outlook is “overdone,” there is still the potential for a “prolonged period of lower growth,” with expansion well below 7 percent. [...] Things are looking gloomier elsewhere. Brazil’s economy, Latin America’s largest, contracted 1.9 percent in the second quarter from the previous period, the government reported on Friday. That’s worse than the 1.7 percent median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. [...] “The basic assumptions about global growth are suffering, and the epicenter is China,” // lots of hot money on the hunt for yield found its way to emerging market and developing market! period, didn't stay in UK, US, Europe. Period. That is something policy makers accepted. financial market is global, not local. BOE ZIRP NIRP QE can not be contained within UK. Period. Same with Chinese newly minted property/paper millionaires put their money in London & else. LatAm into Miami and Co property.
global  economy  BRIC  global  trade  deflationary  deflation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  China  Russia  India  2015  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  reflate  reflation  emerging  middle  class  GFC  monetary  policy  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  unintended  consequences  complexity  globalization  global  imbalances  globalisation  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  secular  stagnation  economic  history  BOE  Fed  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  zombie  banks  monetary  theory  contagion  financial  repression  financial  market  bond  bubble  property  bubble  PBOC 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why we Polish are downing tools to get the recognition we deserve | John Zylinski | Comment is free | The Guardian
[ Tories and Co pit them, us all, against each other ]
immigrants  immigration  scape  goat  smoke  mirror  David  Cameron  UKIP  Nigel  Farage  George  Osborne  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  austerity  UK  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  market  job  creation  Sozialer  Abstieg  squeezed  middle  class  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  labour  market  Workers  Union  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  economic  history  industrial  policy  STEM  Manufacturing  manufactured  consent  propaganda  populism  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  national  interest  Xenophobia  racism  Tories  Conservative  Party  policy  folly  policy  error  Makers  social  contract  social  cohesion  social  tension  welfare  state  neoliberalism  neoliberal  babyboomers  Generationengerechtigkeit  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  globalisation  globalization  borderless  flat  world  competitive  competitiveness  competition  London  economies  of  agglomeration  Westminster  SNP  Scotland  Wales  Northern  Ireland  progressive  coldprogression  kalte  Progression  financial  repression  bank  bailout  bailout  zombie  banks  GFC  recovery  political  theory  precarious  work  social  policy  Party  workin 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Unseen Consequences of Zero-Interest-Rate Policy
distortion of asset allocation (mal-investment, investment in less productive areas for the economy) and risk appetite by pressure - hunt for yield. keeping zombie banks, consumers, and corporate alive by enabeling to rolling over their debt and even go further out on the time axis (long-term bonds/increase overall maturity of your debt - when it has to be repaid), incentive to buy on cheap credit, instead savings, delay of fiscal, economic, political reform by the given artificial time window (see lack of industrial, manufacturing, education, STEM policy/vision of UK) >> and false impression that austerity works great! // and as Richard Koo in one of his recent presentations (for his new book) said - Fed does not know how Taper will unfold, especially the problematic thing of long-dated bonds on their books and how to get them into the market.
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  Richard  Koo  economic  history  academia  academics  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  recovery  GFC  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  2015  distortion  productive  investment  financial  repression  financial  literacy  economic  damage  Group  behaviour  behavioral  economics  savings  rate  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  savings  glut  structural  deficit  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  austerity  Makers  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  policy  folly  policy  error  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  Abenomics  lost  decade  lost  generation  BOE  liquidity  trap 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - YouTube
too big to bail, thus stick it to the countries individually. // Draghi Put - LTRO, LTRO 2, ELA, what ever it takes, TLTRO, // 5trn (40% of EU GDP) put into banks since the crisis (as of 2013). // NPL (via stress test) - 1.22trn in NPL in EU banking system as of 2013. // TINA - there is no alternative (same with UK budget2015) - bbc.in/1N3hrdu &! Angela Merkel "Alternativlos" // bailed out the assets (income for banks via mortgages, loans, businesses loans and credit lines, insurance policies, 401ks, pension fund contributions) of the top 20-30% of the income distribution. austerity is put on the bottom 70-20% of the income distribution. a bailout not just of the banks, the system, but also the top 20-30%, the Super Rich, 1%, the Establishment, the Privileged, the babyboomers, the pensioners. ... and add QE, you really reflate/bail out the 1% ... 10% ... 20%, their pensions, investments, and so forth. // this was and still is a Class specific Put Option for those with assets!
Mark  Blyth  austerity  bailout  book  GFC  ECB  toobigtofail  TBTF  bank  bailout  too  big  to  bail  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  financial  repression  economic  history  dogma  ideology  crony  capitalism  European  Union  Troika  Eurogroup  NPL  reflate  reflation  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  complexity  oversight  investment  banking  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  financial  literacy  financial  market  financial  crisis  Wolfgang  Schäuble  MarioDraghi  equity  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  European  Commission  European  Parliament  Angela  Merkel  GroKo  lenderoflastresort  Germany  banking  EuroFin  IMF  OECD  academia  academics  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  spin  doctor  PR  manufactured  consent  propaganda  Lügenpresse  populism  corporate  media  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  budget2015  George  Osborne  Tories  Conservative  Party  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  No  bubble  asset  bubble  R 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
David Stockman: Central Banks Setting Up World for Bad Time - YouTube
"monetary madness" - repeat phrase of we aim for 2% inflation, that is why we do it. // BIS warned recently in its yearly paper - that Central Banks are unable to combat any global crisis flare-up that is more likely to be worse than GFC ... could be China of all things. // 2000 bust was fought with fed easing and throwing money at it, and GFC too. Next crisis - throwing money at it and easing will not be possible. // &! Deflation Comes First, Then Inflation - Mike Maloney - youtu.be/vAFtlgJNMCo // &! "One Bet, that is Big Enough, (that maybe was even conventional wisdom that it is save and THE BET) when wrong, does put you in a deep deep hole - youtu.be/tp9UjhZz-eo --- Nassim Taleb. There are lots of candidates/things that could blow up in peoples faces. &! Nouriel Roubini: Deflation Needs Monetary, Fiscal Policy - youtu.be/IADncoxQRYg
BIS  deflationary  deflation  financial  repression  BOE  Fed  ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Abenomics  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  inflation  expectation  inflation  currency  war  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  austerity  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  economic  history  IMF  currency  debasement  inflation  targeting  disinflation  hyperinflation  dis-inflation  deleveraging  leverage  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  dot.com  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  fiat  money  trust  trustagent  Nassim  Taleb  Black  Swan  Greece 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Abenomics: Is It Time to Label the Plan a Failure? - YouTube
QE stops the worst from happening. but it doesn't create the best outcome to happen. // &! white elephants and roads and bridges to nowhere part of wrongly headed short-term view of fiscal stimulus made-up by Career Politicians ... :/
Abenomics  BOJ  economic  history  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  fiscal  stimulus  demographic  bubble  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  financial  repression  Richard  Koo 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Who Will Pay? Austerity vs. Bailouts | Greece, Europe and The Euro! - YouTube
have to be held accountable >> bankers! but have not, just transfered private debt/losses onto public balance sheet which no has to paid down by the weakest of society and collectively by less public investment for the future (output gap/lower productivity) ie into infrastructure and education // stealing from the young // policy making by comfort and trinkets - George Osborne // moral hazard - the options they choose - paulson geithner summers and co made the tbtf and jail even worse! instead should have chosen partial privatization // sold off our future for keeping the gangsters "private" - get out of jail free card for what reason? because it would be not American? American means to be WALL STREET crony capitalistic greed with tax evasion and lobbying to the tunes of millions - your judge - that judges on you whether you get a free out of jail card?! // who will suffer in the end? the public and the weakest of society and unborn! period. long-term. // &! youtu.be/EmHYeGI0b_U
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
James Rickards - The Death of Money - 04-30-15 - YouTube
distribution of risk (bell curve, wrong) & talebs black swan! / 'dismal science alone doesn't do the world and people justice.' / IMF is the central bank of the world (funded, special drawing right - SDR; out of thin air - backed by national central banks as reference (basket) but not backed by anything. printed money.) / Hungary's crisis - people borrowing in Swiss Franc ... SDR marry go round paying someone off with the help of IMF ... / IMF is transparent non-transparent. Try reading it. Need to be an expert. / AIIB able to issue bonds and got billions in capital - China/Asia Development Bank. Everybody joined because they want those contracts for their local/national companies ... except USA. Asia (China led) World Bank equivalent. - bit.ly/1Mxz1Dp &! bit.ly/1x04SZv / China wants to be in IMF & be part of basket of SDR / China may back its currency with Gold eventually once theyve got enough & leverage then its position. / US wants Yuan to be pegged to $ / m44 debt sustainability
economic  model  book  economic  history  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  academia  academics  science  sociology  psychology  discounted  risk  risk  discount  complexity  distributed  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  dogma  ideology  centralbanks  Fed  technocrat  IMF  World  Bank  Troika  bailout  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  austerity  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  currency  war  currency-war  currency  debasement  SDR  Special  Drawing  Right  AIIB  inflation  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  systemicrisk  counterpartyrisk  leverage  zombie  banks  Wall  Street  financial  repression  financial  literacy 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
ESM: Kreditprogramm ausgereizt - Nachfrage fehlt im Euro-Raum - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Bankenrettungsschirm ESM soll jetzt helfen, Unternehmen mit Krediten zu versorgen. Ein Vorschlag von beeindruckender Mutlosigkeit. Wesentlich wirksamer wäre es, das Geld per Hubschrauber über der Eurozone abzuwerfen. [...] Wäre es nicht besser, sich zunächst einmal zu fragen, welches Problem wir hier eigentlich lösen wollen? Ist Liquidität wirklich das Problem? Wohl kaum. Die Europäische Zentralbank legt dauernd neue Liquiditätsprogramme für den Bankensektor auf. Und was passiert? Die Banken wollen das Geld nicht und zahlen lieber die alten Kredite schnell zurück. Wenn Liquidität nicht mehr das Problem ist, wie soll dann ein Kreditprogramm helfen? [...] Firmen wollen keine Kredite, sie wollen Aufträge +!+!+!+ http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/18/ecbs-tltro-program-analysts-roundup/ +!+!+!+ ZIRP also never arrive for businesses.
ESM  TLTRO  LTRO  ABS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ECB  fiscal  policy  Pact  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  Europe  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Germany  zombie  banks  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  financial  repression  liquidity  trap  lost  decade  lost  generation  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  recovery  greatrecession  BRIC  MINT  Exportweltmeister  USA  UK  flat  world  secular  stagnation  stagnation  stagflation  economic  history  austerity  IMF  Richard  Koo  globalization  globalisation  uncertainty 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Live chart: The low countries - YouTube
Timothy Geithner says no risk of U.S. losing it's AAA credit rating - http://youtu.be/0HDCvqgxrrE || Geithner: Japan's 'Lost Decade' Not America's Fate - http://youtu.be/fax8BIPKcP8 "the hope it's gonna heal itself, to hope you can grow yourself out of it" growing your way out of it" || +!!! Timothy Geithner Fired Robert Shiller? http://youtu.be/bIwBEYoSqKY >> economics has no humans in it !!! no real world example. Conventional wisdom so strong. "We've got too scientific." And anybody who is 'flaky' gets pushed out [Robert Schiller]. >>Wenn du dich auf andere verlaesst, bist du verlassen.<< || Robert Shiller: Speculative Asset Prices - http://youtu.be/oBXPOWytDMs "present value". google.co.uk/search?q=present+value+Robert+Schiller || + Robert Shiller: Nobel Prize Winning Economist - http://youtu.be/ABvtKGrIDUs "it can't be an exact science (forecasting) because of the complexity, mass data; uncertain, certain, and data that can't be put in numbers, storystelling -> feedback loops ...
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
Der Crash ist die Lösung | SWR1 Leute - YouTube
banks still TBTF, Systemrelevant. << enabled by Own Lobby influencing Career Politicians. haftungsgarantien von ECB are no more capitalism. +++ &&& +++ If even Germany - Wirtchaftslokomotive - export meister - does still have a budget deficit, while being that country that produces more than it consumes, who else if not Germany? But still doesn't. +++ "Die Zeit der Rendite ist vorbei." +++ Schulden zu haben, man ist nicht frei. Frueher hat man das sich gekauft was man sich leisten konnte, ohne kreditkarte, ohne dispo, ohne bankkredit. +++ NEW crash will come of even bigger proportion and even more rubble to clear up afterwards than 2008/9 - GFC. +++ Always buy in tranches, dispersed over time. +++ fractional reserve banking leads to this UBER crash as we live on a planet with finite resources. Current GDP fetish needs to stop. Change of mind, thinking, course. << this is the same with Mobile Creative, future workforce, Software eats the world, UK's productivity gap.
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - UK unemployment total falls to 2.16m, wage inflation to remain low
[threat of wage inflation spiral far off because of multiple underlying factors not allowing it measured wholly across the uk (taking the other country called london out of the picture)] - "Weak pay growth and the 'cost of living crisis' remains the Achilles heel of the economic recovery," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit. "But it should not be long until we see earnings growth accelerate as the labour market continues to tighten. Pay growth should pick up in coming months, perhaps significantly." +++ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10838393/Bank-of-Englands-slack-approach-leaves-economy-at-risk.html +++ http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/03/monetary-policy-0 +++ http://youtu.be/fvTdWWUkUNM?t=2m10s
output  gap  slack  in  economy  UK  recovery  greatrecession  greatdepression  2014  2015  inflation  deflation  productivity  deflationary  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  wage  growth  earnings  growth  austerity  BOE  Mark  Carney  ZIRP  spare  capacity  academia  economic  history  New  Normal  financial  repression  underemployed  underemployment  workforce  labour  market  structural  unemployment  inflation  expectation  wage  inflation  London  wage  inflation  spiral  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  wages  living  wage  minimum  wage  industrial  policy  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  skill-biased  technological  change  capital  skills  skill  skills  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  World  Flat  globalization  globalisation  competitive  advantage  competitive  competitiveness  Competition  comparative-advantage  comparative  advantage  21stcentury  Year  of  Code 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Zinsentscheid der EZB: Draghi plant Minus vor Zinssatz - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Schon immer ließ sich das Ende eines Systems besonders schwer erkennen, wenn man Teil des Systems ist. Im Jahre sieben nach Ausbruch der Finanzkrise ist es langsam Zeit für die Frage: Was, wenn die vermeintliche Ausnahme in Wahrheit die Regel ist? Wenn es sich bei der Kombination aus niedrigen Zinsen, niedrigem Wachstum und niedriger Inflation, die weite Teile Europa seit 2008 ebenso im Griff hält wie die USA und Japan, um die neue Normalität handelt? Wenn das seit Jahrzehnten praktizierte westliche Wirtschaftsmodell, sich immer niedrigere Wachstumsraten mit immer höheren Staatsschulden zu erkaufen, an seinem Schlusspunkt angelangt ist? +++ http://bit.ly/SxhnZq "Nicht Europa ist am Ende - sondern der Kapitalismus, so wie wir ihn kennen. [...] Im angelsächsischen Finanzkapitalismus wachsen die Vermögen der Reichen und stagnieren die Einkommen der anderen." [...] [EU Election Result is a vote] gegen das ungerechte Wirtschaftssystem, das ihre Lebensgrundlage gefährdet.
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB senkt Leitzins und beschließt Minuszinsen für Banken - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat ihren Leitzins auf ein Rekordtief gesenkt und erstmals einen negativen Einlagensatz beschlossen. Angesichts der zuletzt sehr niedrigen Inflationsrate wird der Zins, zu dem sich die Geschäftsbanken bei der Notenbank Geld leihen können, um 0,10 Punkte auf 0,15 Prozent gesenkt, wie die EZB am Donnerstag nach ihrer Ratssitzung in Frankfurt mitteilte. Der Einlagensatz, zu dem Banken kurzfristig Geld bei der Notenbank parken können, wird erstmals in den negativen Bereich gedrückt. Er sinkt von bisher null Prozent auf minus 0,10 Prozent. Der Zins für kurzfristige Ausleihungen bei der Notenbank vermindert sich von 0,75 auf 0,40 Prozent. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-entscheidung-kredite-und-senkung-des-leitzins-a-973657.html ""Die Banken leiden nicht unter vermeintlich zu hohen Notenbankzinsen, sondern unter dem hohen Bestand fauler Kredite, an dem Negativzinsen nichts ändern." + !! http://youtu.be/kKO_yxP3dyQ !!
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
Dax knackt 10.000 Punkte: Rekord wegen billigen Gelds von EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Erstmals überspringt der Dax die Marke von 10.000 Punkten. Das beweist erneut, wie sehr der deutsche Leitindex vom billigen Geld der Notenbank abhängig ist - und wie schnell die gute Stimmung an der Börse vorbei sein kann. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/dax-steigt-ueber-10-000-punkte-auf-neuen-rekordstand-a-972849.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/geldanlage-bei-niedrigzinsen-gold-immobilien-einen-jaguar-a-973671.html ""Wohin also jetzt mit den Ersparnissen?"" +++ Spekulationsblasen: Wirtschaftsweiser warnt vor Gefahren der Niedrigzinsen - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ezb-wirtschaftsweiser-wieland-warnt-vor-spekulationsblasen-a-975400.html +++ Niedrigzinsen: Schäuble befürchtet Immobilienblase in Deutschland - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/zinsen-schaeuble-befuerchtet-immobilienblase-in-deutschland-a-976154.html
asset  bubble  Betongold  Beton  Gold  ZIRP  QE  OMT  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  asset  allocation  property  bubble  London  PIGS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity-trap  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  hunt  for  yield  New  Normal  financial  repression  2014  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  banking  union  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  macroprudential  policy  Politics  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  austerity  fiscal  policy  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  faultlines  imbalance  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  lost  decade  lost  generation  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  Wolfgang  Schäuble 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - When will the UK pay its way in the world?
In absolute terms it has been impossible for UK debts to fall. >> Now what was a little worrying was that the deficit on the current account reached 5.6% of GDP, or economic output, in the third quarter of 2013 and fell to just a little bit lower, 5.4%, in the fourth quarter. That 5.6% was - ahem - something of a milestone: it was the biggest quarterly deficit since records began in 1955. And it explains why the record aggregate indebtedness of the UK has been falling so slowly, and is still not much below 500% of GDP on the Mckinsey measure (though see my previous blog). [...] UK's - limp trading performance - for YEARS! ... COMPETING against BRICs, Europe, G8, ... now and in the future competing with MINT countries too ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MINT_countries ). [...] "We have not got forever to reconstruct our economy and become a bit more like the European export emperor, Germany."
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may 2014 by asterisk2a
British austerity is no model for the rest of the world - FT.com
the pace of fiscal contraction has slowed over the past two years. This means that the brake on growth caused by fiscal policy is becoming more attenuated. So the turnround in growth over the past 18 months is as much evidence against austerity as it is pro-austerity. Second, faced with the potential damage caused by the deficit reduction to demand and economic growth, the UK government has been forced to introduce a number of extraordinary measures to support lending. [...] It certainly should not, however, be seen as any kind of inspiration to other companies or countries. + http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10807988/Rapid-rate-rises-could-throw-UK-back-into-recession.html
Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BOE  austerity  Mark  Carney  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  recovery  2014  GFC  zombie  consumer  Debt  Super  Cycle  private  sovereign  crisis  consumer  bubble  monetization  monetisation  QE  ZIRP  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  election  campaign  promises  general  election  2015  election2015  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  productivity  wage  stagnation  living  wage  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  financial  repression  New  Normal  structural  deficit  budget  deficit  jubilee  public  household  debtoverhang  liquidity-trap  economic  history  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  mortgage  market  housing  market  Supply  Supply  Shortfall  public  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  unconventional  monetary  policy  policy-makers  policy  makers  democracy  Politics  UK 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Wie Europa Schulden loswerden kann - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[Rogoff & Reinhart advocating financial repression] [...] [Because Austerity didn't work.] Tatsächlich habe die europäische Wirtschaftspolitik - die Haushaltsdefizite senkt und Strukturreformen für mehr Wachstum durchführt - recht wenig getan, um den Schuldenberg wirklich zu verringern. Die Politik könnte die Last für die nächsten Jahre sogar verschlimmert haben, sagen viele Volkswirte. Die Sparpolitik hat das Wachstum überraschend stark beeinträchtigt. Während die Hinweise darauf, dass die Strukturreformen tatsächlich die Wirtschaft beflügeln, eher überschaubar ausfallen. Stattdessen sinken Einkommen, Gewinne und Steuereinnahmen, was die Schuldenlast immer schwerer erträglich macht.
debt  servicing  sovereign  debt  crisis  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  Europe  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  liquidity-trap  QE  KennethRogoff  liberal  economic  reform  economic  history  MarioDraghi  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  youth  unemployment  austerity  IMF  Japan  UK  USA  budget  deficit  France  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  New  Normal  PIMCO  Mohamed  El-Erian  debt  jubilee  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  private  debt  public  debt  household  debt  carmenreinhart  WallStreet  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  communication  babyboomers  haircut  PIGS  toobigtofail  TBTF  Richardkoo 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB: Mario Draghi und die Schuld an den niedrigen Zinsen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Manche nennen es Enteignung: Auch 2014 müssen sich viele deutsche Sparer mit Mini-Zinsen unterhalb der Inflationsrate begnügen. Schuld daran ist aus ihrer Sicht die Europäische Zentralbank. Deren Chef Mario Draghi wehrt sich - was taugen seine Argumente?
financial  repression  New  Normal  ZIRP  QE  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  complexity  unintended  consequences  asset  bubble  Europe  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
Hugh Hendry Capitulates: "Can't Look At Himself In The Mirror" As He Throws In The Towel, Turns Bullish | Zero Hedge
First David Rosenberg, then Jeremy Grantham, and now Hugh Hendry: one after another the bears are throwing in the towel. As Investment Week reports, speaking at Harrington Cooper's 2013 conference this morning, Hugh Hendry said "he is no longer fighting the two-way feedback loop which is continuing to boost risk assets." The reflexive feedback loop envisioned by Hendry is the following and centres on the currency war being played out between the US and China, "in which US QE prompts dollar-denominated investment to head to China, and China fights the resulting upwards pressure on its currency by manufacturing an investment boom. Hendry said this creates a "global supply glut", leading to falling US inflation expectations (as this supply far outweights US domestic demand) - which in turn prompts the Federal Reserve to loosen policy once again." Rinse. Repeat. [... DONT FIGHT THE FED ...] [...] You have got to be in things that are trending.
HughHendry  supply-demand  savings  glut  supply  glut  QE  ZIRP  deflation  deflationary  reflation  inflation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  liquidity  liquidity-trap  WallStreet  asset  bubble  blackswan  fat  tail  Fed  GFC  Debt  Super  Cycle  trading  proptrading  hunt  for  yield  financial  repression  New  Normal 
november 2013 by asterisk2a
Economists in Jackson Hole Say QE Less Potent Than Fed Believes - Businessweek
‘Economists in Jackson Hole Say QE Less Potent Than Fed Believes’ – Bloomberg This is some great Monday morning quarterbacking from the economists in academia. The wonks have now decided, with the Fed balance sheet at $3.65 trillion and nearly at its peak that maybe this wasn’t such a great idea.
currency  debasement  monetary  policy  currency  war  complexity  asset  bubble  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  reflation  unintended  consequences  global  economy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  BOE  ECB  monetary  system  benbernanke  debtoverhang  QE  NIRP  Fed  financial  repression  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  fiscal  policy  stagflation  UK  devaluation  creditcrunch  bubble  structural  imbalance  sovereign  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  Taper  deleveraging  Richardkoo  faultlines  balance  sheet  recession 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
The Federal Reserve in a Time for Doves by Kenneth Rogoff - Project Syndicate
The importance of technical competence in monetary policy has been proved repeatedly by central banks around the world. [...] the quality of monetary policy depends critically on whether central bankers have a clear and nuanced understanding of policy making and inflation. The 1920’s, 1930’s, and 1970’s are replete with examples of central bankers who did not understand the basics, and whose economies paid the price. What this means is not just competence in setting interest rates, but also competence in regulatory policy. [...] For the past 25 years, the mantra of “inflation targeting” (introduced in my 1985 paper) has served as a mechanism for containing inflation expectations by reassuring the public of the central bank’s intentions. But excessive emphasis on low inflation targets can be counterproductive in the aftermath of the worst financial crisis in 75 years. Rather than worrying about inflation, central bankers should focus on reflating the economy.
Donald  Kohn  Larry  Summers  unemployment  2013  monetary  policy  2014  Fed  financial  repression  inflation  targeting  Debt  Super  Cycle  monetary  theory  reflation  sovereign  crisis  New  Normal  Janet  Yellen  deflation  nominal  GDP  targeting  monetary  system  long-term  unemployment  benbernanke  deflationary  inflation  centralbanks 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Zinstief kostet deutsche Sparer laut neuer Postbank-Studie Milliarden - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die extrem niedrigen Zinsen in Europa kosten deutsche Sparer offenbar Milliarden: Nach Berechnungen der Postbank verlieren die Sparvermögen bei Banken in Deutschland allein in diesem Jahr real rund 14 Milliarden Euro an Wert, wie die "Bild"-Zeitung unter Berufung auf die Studie berichtet.
monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  New  Normal  monetary  transmission  mechanism  babyboomers  liquidity-trap  BOE  banking  crisis  ECB  BOJ  monetary  system  bank  crisis  lostdecade  debtoverhang  NIRP  2013  Fed  lostgeneration  financial  repression  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  centralbanks  balance  sheet  recession 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Breaking Bad Habits by Stephen S. Roach - Project Syndicate
Unable to facilitate balance-sheet repair or stimulate real economic activity, QE has, instead, become a dangerous source of instability in global financial markets. [...] There is good reason to believe that China’s new leaders are now determined to wean the economy off ever-mounting (and destabilizing) debt – especially in its rapidly expanding “shadow banking” system. [...] Financial markets are having a hard time coming to grips with the new policy mindset in the world’s two largest economies. [...] Breaking bad habits is hardly a painless experience for liquidity-addicted investors.
monetary  policy  GFC  unintended  consequences  New  Normal  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  monetary  system  addiction  benbernanke  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  greatrecession  China  QE  NIRP  2013  Fed  Greenspan-Put  alangreenspan  shadowbanking  financial  repression  stephenroach  creditcrunch  bubble  ZIRP  Taper  USA  greatdepression  deleveraging  toobigtofail  PBOC  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
OtterWood Observations on Japan, May 2013 - YouTube
As the BoJ prepares to thrill us with even moar in its latest policy meeting (or not as we discussed earlier) and with Amari et al. now jawboning JPY to some extent to control the out-of-control chaos in JGBs, it is perhaps worth taking 20 minutes to comprehend just what all this extreme policy action means. The following brief presentation covers it all in a Kyle-Bass-ian facts-and-fallacies manner, Christine Hughes sums it all up perfectly, for Japan, "The Math Is Stacked Against Japan - It's Not 'If', It's When." >> "The Math Is Stacked Against Japan - It's Not 'If', It's When" >> - 5 year time horizon - + http://www.businessinsider.com/kyle-bass-warns-against-japanese-stocks-2013-4 + http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2013/04/kyle-bass-gets-it-wrong-on-japanese-bonds.html "The bond vigilante stuff is a myth."
currency  debasement  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  currency  war  bond  vigilante  GFC  reflation  unintended  consequences  New  Normal  Yen  BOJ  currency-war  Gold  Abenomics  lostdecade  debtoverhang  QE  JGB  NIRP  financial  repression  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  Carry  Trade  monetisation  bubble  sovereign  crisis  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  inflation  monetization  Japan 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau über die Pläne für eine Bankenunion - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die geplante Bankenunion kommt zu spät für die gegenwärtige Krise - denn ohne eine Änderung der EU-Verträge wird sie nicht funktionieren. Der Euro-Zone droht ein Jahrzehnt der Stagnation, weil es für Unternehmen in Südeuropa kaum noch Kredite gibt.
Politics  GFC  Europe  European  Commission  zombie  banks  recapitalisation  New  Normal  liquidity-trap  europeanunion  Troika  banking  union  banking  crisis  ECB  zombie  corporations  political  folly  lostdecade  policy  error  policy  folly  lostgeneration  economic  history  financial  repression  creditcrunch  political  error  sovereign  debt  crisis  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  austerity  USA  deleveraging  toobigtofail  systemicrisk  Richardkoo  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
David Stockman On The New Deal Myths Of Recovery | Zero Hedge
"The new deal was a political gong show, not a golden era of enlightened economic policy. It shattered the foundation of sound money and inaugurated a régime of capricious fiscal and regulatory activism that inexorably fueled the growth of state power and the crony capitalism which thrives on it. But it did not end the Great Depression or save capitalism from the alleged shortcomings which led to the crash. In fact, the New Deal introduced a severe dose of economic nationalism and autarky at a time when the only hope for speedy recovery was a reopening of world trade and reestablishment of a stable international monetary régime.... in reality, the notion that the New Deal had pioneered a road map to recovery by means of countercyclical fiscal policy is mostly a postwar academic legend."
QE  NIRP  2013  monetary  policy  GFC  financial  repression  New  Normal  ZIRP  austerity  greatdepression  book  toobigtofail  greatrecession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Junk's heyday is here and now - YouTube
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-09/deutsche-bank-we-fully-understand-why-authorities-wouldnt-want-free-markets-operate- "We would stress that we fully understand why the authorities wouldn't want free markets to operate today as the risk of a huge global default and unemployment cycle would still be very high. However their intervention has a cost in our opinion. Socially this might be worth paying but we do think it exists."
bankruptcy  cycle  unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  zombie  banks  fixed  income  miltonfriedman  BOJ  artificial  demand  Insolvenzverschleppung  QE  lostgeneration  demand  and  supply  property  bubble  hayek  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  bubble  default  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  debt  monetization  centralbanks  insolvency  cycle  Free  Lunch  IMF  default  cycle  GFC  refinancing  corporate  debt  haircut  unintended  consequences  high  yield  debt  Student  Loan  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  default  rate  credit  bubble  greatrecession  lostdecade  NIRP  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  monetarism  sovereign  debt  crisis  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  default  scenario  ZIRP  Junk  Bonds 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Economic policy: Paved with good intentions | The Economist
Although the debate [austerity] relates to the UK, I think it has a much wider resonance. And indeed, to a student of history, it has fascinating parallels; economic policy-making was rethought in the mid-1970s, but the same debates are popping up again. [...] Margaret Thatcher on ZIRP & QE "Let us print the money instead. Because what that is saying is let us quietly steal a cerain amount from every pound saved in building societies, in national savings, from every person who has been thrifty." [...] [ZIRP & QE is no free lunch - it has consequences, known and unknown, unintended.]
infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  Margaret  Thatcher  Mark  Carney  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  deflation  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  QE  intellectual  fiscal  policy  free  lunch  UK  PIGS  debt  monetisation  Martin  Wolf  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  economic-thought  deleveraging  economics  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  liberal  economic  reform  IMF  GFC  output-gap  unintended  consequences  margaretthatcher  Troika  davidcameron  greatrecession  debtoverhang  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetarism  ZIRP  demand-curve  PIIGS  fiscal  theory  supply-demand  MervynKing  GeorgeOsborne 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB's Draghi 'ready to act if needed'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvHvyvPd0PU + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/ezb-senkt-leitzins-auf-rekordtief-von-0-5-prozent-a-897701.html "Die Währungshüter hoffen, dass die Finanzbranche das billige Geld in Form von Krediten an Unternehmen und Verbraucher weiterreichen wird." + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-senkt-leitzins-draghis-gefaehrlicher-rettungsversuch-a-897771.html ... >> After the GFC, banks should have been privatised (creditors to take haircuts) in 2010/11, those who were not banks (ie lending), but mere zombie banks. Europe is doing the same mistake as Japan. >> see Apple example - unintended consequences. Microsoft too.
monetary  policy  financialcrisis  GFC  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  New  Normal  liquidity-trap  banking  crisis  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  lostdecade  greatrecession  policy  folly  QE  debtoverhang  communication  economic  history  financial  repression  Debt  Super  Cycle  NPL  PIGS  bubble  error  creditcrunch  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
El-Erian's Summary: "Virtually Every Market Is Trading At Very Artificial Levels" | Zero Hedge
http://live.wsj.com/public/page/embed-85F75B51_F954_46E1_861D_EC47CC278296.html >> "if these levels aren’t validated by the fundamentals, then investors will get hurt." WORTH LISTENING EVERY MINUTE. > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/not-what-low-volatility-environment-looks > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/margin-clerks-were-working " Long experience in the markets will inform you that this kind of massive sell-off is indicative of someone or perhaps a numbers of someones with serious problems. " [...] The markets can turn on a dime and the move can be severe and painful. [...] The cash provided by the Central Banks has been leveraged to the nines as indicated by the severity of the sell-off in both gold and equities. > Europe lost out on design and execution to overcome crisis. > Rating Agencies have monopoly. With monopoly comes problems. > Trust, but verify.
unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  BOJ  Gold  Structural  Impediments  Equity  QE  2013  UK  debt  monetisation  creditcrunch  imbalance  debt  bubble  Error  trustagent  austerity  bubble  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  ratingagencies  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  PIMCO  Politics  GFC  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  ECB  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  political  folly  income  growth  China  greatrecession  uncertainty  lostdecade  monopoly  debtoverhang  Fed  trust  economic  history  financial  repression  bubbles  income-growth  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Carmen Reinhart: "No Doubt. Our Pensions Are Screwed." | Zero Hedge
Only when inflation picks up, which is ultimately going to happen, will it become obvious that central banks have become subservient to governments." [...] Nations "seldom just grow themselves out of debt," as so many believe is possible, "you need a combination of austerity, so that you don't add further to the pile of debt, and higher inflation, which is effectively a subtle form of taxation," with the consequence that people are going to lose their savings. Reinhart succinctly summarizes, "no doubt, our pensions are screwed." [...] http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/interview-with-harvard-economist-carmen-reinhart-on-financial-repression-a-893213.html / http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/how-central-banks-are-threatening-the-savings-of-normal-germans-a-860021.html
monetization  unemployment  monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  modern  monetary  theory  transferring-wealth  reflation  academia  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  carmenreinhart  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  deposit  levy  creditcrisis  QE  2013  moralhazard  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  creditcrunch  bail-in  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  inflation  centralbanks  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  debt  jubilee  haircut  unintended  consequences  Troika  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  debt  restructuring  bank  crisis  Abenomics  greatrecession  debtoverhang  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  bailout 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
For Everyone Shocked By What Just Happened... And Why This Is Just The Beginning | Zero Hedge
Today, lots of people woke up in shock and horror to what happened in Cyprus: a forced capital reallocation mandated by political elites under the guise of an "equity investment" in insolvent banks, which is really code for a "coercive, mandatory wealth tax." If less concerned about political correctness, one could say that what just happened was daylight robbery from savers to banks and the status quo. These same people may be even more shocked to learn that today's Cypriot "resolution" is merely the first of many such coercive interventions into personal wealth, first in Europe, and then everywhere else. [...] And with inflation woefully late in appearing and "inflating away" said debt overhang, Europe first is finally moving to Plan B, and is using Cyrprus as its Guniea Pig. http://www.scribd.com/doc/130778664/BCG-Back-to-Mesopotamia
debtoverhang  ESM  2013  Politics  debt  jubilee  financial  repression  economic  history  Europe  reflation  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  greatdepression  deflation  debt  restructuring  Cyprus  inflation  greatrecession  bailout  IMF  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
SPIEGEL.TV - Web-TV der SPIEGEL Gruppe
"Lost Confidence and Trust in Wall Street (Kapitalmaerkten), Dax and Pension Schemes drives capital into Real Estate (Bentongold)."

http://www.spiegel.tv/filme/magazin-ware-wohnraum/

ROI (return of investment) is high in up-and-coming and hip urban environments (ie Berlin). Borrow cheap, renovate, modernise old apartments, then able to hike rent or sell at higher value.

-

One example of trust in Wall Street and status quo operation ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nyse-reports-50-drop-august-stock-trading-volume

>> European Cash

NYSE Euronext European cash products ADV of 1.1 million transactions in August 2012 decreased 50.1% compared to August 2011 and decreased 25.7% compared to July 2012.
Year-to-date, European cash products ADV of 1.5 million transactions was 10.9% below prior year levels.
sovereign  debt  crisis  greatrecession  GFC  financial  repression  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  trustagent  trust  confidence  unintended  consequences  bubbles  bubble 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
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