asterisk2a + rebalancing   10

Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History - YouTube
ideology/Career Politicians/Complacency/Cushy/non-ambitious/AIIB/comfortable //&! bit.ly/1cU2RVS March 2015, SELL & come back in 6 months - bloom.bg/1NTykGB //&! bit.ly/1NJvXai &! bit.ly/1VsYTEJ Outrageous predictions for 2015 were: China devalues yuan 20% [joining others in global struggle to import inflation] &! Corporate high yield market spreads double (higher refinancing cost, which zombie corporations do actually have no pants on as tide goes out) "High yield is a derivative of equity markets. If you believe equities are overvalued, so too is high yield," &! UK house prices crash (foreign hot money, speculative + shortage + Summer 2015 Crash + BOE Taper in 2015/16 = back to reality!) &! Russia defaults again // &! Fed Taper is a "margin call," [need 2 normalize despite its mandate/fundamentals not warranting a hike!] [...] a seven-year bull run 4 equities might be coming to an end [...] the rise (not value) of RMB/Yuan as it becomes free floating out of need] - cnb.cx/1MMyLSC
Abenomics  Yen  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  currency-war  fiat  currency  currency  debasement  currency  war  deflationary  deflation  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  credit  cycle  business  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  investment  public  investment  personal  investment  infrastructure  investment  rebalancing  structural  imbalance  Impediments  infrastructure  Career  Politicians  short-term  Fortune  500  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Wall  Street  ROI  STEM  Research  R&D  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  output  gap  productivity  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Robotics  3D  printing  Steen  Jakobsen  financial  incentive  secular  stagnation  Manufacturing  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  AIIB  Asia  European  Union  share  buyback  2015  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  developed  liquidity  trap  UK  USA  Europe  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  bank  bailout  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  ideology  dogma  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why 'secular stagnation' matters - BBC News
The question at stake is the issue of "secular stagnation", which is probably the biggest and most important controversy in macroeconomics today. This is not though a debate for the ivory tower, it's an issue with significant real world implications. [...] So what is secular stagnation? It's an idea that originated in the late 1930s with the US Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen. He worried that growth was fundamentally slowing and emphasised demographic factors (such as slowing population growth) as a driver of this. [ western world needs immigration as reproduction level is below 1, capitalism and our economics is fundy based on econ growth, but that is, on the horizon, not possible (excl inflation). what if population is stable!? ] [...] In a nutshell secular stagnation is an attempt to explain the weakness of the global recovery in advanced economies since the 2008 crisis. [ decelerating, debt overhang, balancesheet recession, sov debt crisis ] [...]
secular  stagnation  Europe  Japan  economic  history  lost  decade  global  imbalances  rebalancing  demographic  bubble  demographics  demography  immigration  western  world  economic  growth  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  stagflation  deflation  deflationary  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  austerity  full  employment  Larry  Summers  Paul  Krugman  Ben  Bernanke  savings  glut  complexity  incomplete  information  productivity  output  gap  productive  investment  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Five Years After Lehman, BIS Ex-Chief Economist Warns "It's Worse This Time" | Zero Hedge
The share of "leveraged loans" or extreme forms of credit risk, used by the poorest corporate borrowers, has soared to an all-time high of 45% - 10 percentage points higher than at the peak of the crisis in 2007. + http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-14/record-high-grade-leverage-means-pik-toggle-lbo-debt-back-and-worse-ever // The Bank Of International Settlements Warns The Monetary Kool-Aid Party Is Over www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-23/bank-international-settlements-warns-monetary-kool-aid-party-over ""central banks must head for the exit and stop trying to spur a global economic recovery... cheap and plentiful central bank money had merely bought time, warning that more bond buying would retard the global economy’s return to health by delaying adjustments to governments’ and households’ balance sheets." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10310598/BIS-veteran-says-global-credit-excess-worse-than-pre-Lehman.html
unemployment  employment  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  ope  reflation  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  carmenreinhart  BOJ  LBO  balancesheet  policy  folly  QE  liquidity  2013  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  political  error  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  centralbanks  liberal  economic  reform  faultlines  GFC  monetary  theory  exuberance  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  global  economy  monetary  stimulus  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  liquidity-trap  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  benbernanke  bank  crisis  Abenomics  rebalancing  China  greatrecession  policy  error  productivity  LTRO  NIRP  OMT  Fed  communication  economic  history  Super  Cycle  stagflation  leverage  KennethRogoff  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  BIS  POMO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance  fiscal  deficit 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Reuters Breakingviews: Beware the "blinkered" Fed - YouTube
Fed policy / theory goes along the line that you can ignore rising and falling asset prices (bubbles) that come and go according with your policy actions.
unemployment  monetary  policy  complexity  asset  bubble  monetary  theory  reflation  unintended  consequences  rebalancing  greatrecession  QE  NIRP  2013  communication  Fed  short-term  thinking  economic  history  stagflation  structural  imbalance  recovery  ZIRP  Taper  USA  greatdepression  WallStreet  inflation  faultlines 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Global growth: In search of demand | The Economist
.... One would hope to see adjustment occur as former surplus countries grow into demand engines. While that process occurs only slowly, the world economy will be vulnerable to outbreaks of recession, and the risk of market interventions—including protectionism.

... The West can not hope for a domestic demand let recovery with overburdened private market and austerity at public level.

.... Debt Overhang, Balancesheet Recession (Koo), Deleveraging --> is the game in town.
economics  supply-demand  rebalancing  global-economy  global  imbalances  tradedeficit  trade  balance  QE  BOJ  debt  bubble  2011  2012  Japan 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
UK GDP revisions: Bigger boom, deeper bust, earlier recovery | The Economist
The new figures clear up some puzzles. For instance, net exports made a bigger contribution to GDP growth in 2009 and 2010 than previously thought and consumer spending was weaker. That points to greater"rebalancing" in the economy and a larger effect of a weaker currency on the mix of spending. But the resilience of the jobs market (until very recently) is still hard to reconcile with a fairly sluggish recovery in 2009 and 2010. That suggests more upward revisions are likely. GDP figures (in Britain, at least) are always provisional. It takes years for the true picture to emerge.
GDP  economy  economics  UK  revision  2009  2010  2011  rebalancing  greatrecession  2008  recession  recovery 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
Merkel Rejects Call for Germans to Spend - WSJ.com
Chancellor Angela Merkel roundly rebuffed U.S. President Barack Obama's call for Germans to aid the global recovery by spending more and relying less on exports, even as she warned that Europe's own financial crisis is far from over.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal an unapologetic Ms. Merkel said the nations that share the beleaguered euro have merely bought some time to fix the flaws in their monetary union. She called the G20 meeting in Toronto this weekend to send a signal that tougher financial-market regulation is on its way to dispel the impression that momentum is fading amid resistance by big banks.

She took aim at an idea voiced by France, the U.S. and others that Germany should help global producers by spurring its persistently weak consumer demand and ending its dependence on unsustainable spending elsewhere. a letter last Friday Obama to the G20, in which he asked big exporters to rebalance global demand by boosting consumer spending.
export  Germany  Japan  China  spending  USA  G20  Toronto  2010  angelamerkel  policy  barackobama  global  rebalancing  economy 
june 2010 by asterisk2a

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