asterisk2a + real   44

Distortion of financial economy (speculation), underinvestment in real things.
7:33 QE and ZIRP and banks business model, the financialisation of the western economies, is causing underinvestment now for a too long time, in the real economy (companies, R&D, infrastructure, edu, productivity). - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZL31ORGxZPk - TBTF central banks w QE blance sheet unable to unwind it! Loss of faith in politics and the system. (2) credit bubble from consumers that made the recovery w the help of ZIRP QE - zombie consumer zombie companies zombie banks - kept just about alive w QE and ZIRP. america uk worth more on paper due to credit and forex USD £ than their real economy realer wirtschaftswert (3) Argentina example.
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  housing  mortgage  bubble  real  estate  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  poverty  trap  social  income  mobility  recovery  GFC  central  banks  ECB  BOE  Fed  BOJ  austerity  Schuldenbremse  trickle-down  underinvestment  economic  history  TBTF 
may 2017 by asterisk2a
Canada Overwhelmed By 100,000 Chinese Millionaire Immigrants - YouTube
Flaunting your wealth. No connection w your culture and heritage. [...] also land taxes based on property value make it not affordable for some ... [...] Chinese love their property, half of their wealth/portfolio ... // http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/canadian-house-prices-from-overvaluation-to-downright-zany/article30535075/ &! http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-banks-mortgage-1.3643793 - Canadian banks could survive a 25% house price decline, Moody's says. Banking system would be fine even if Toronto and Vancouver see a crash, ratings agency says.
Beton  Gold  Betongold  Canada  USA  China  property  bubble  real  estate  bubble  UK  globalisation  globalization  immigration  economic  history  asset  allocation  affordability  affordable  housing  social  housing  Generation  Rent  rent-seeking  rentier  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOC  secular  stagnation  migration  valuation  asset  bubble  asset  liquidity  distortion  distorted  Germany  1%  Super  Rich  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Latin  America  BRIC  emerging  middle  class  India  Asia 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
The real truth about the 2008 financial crisis | Brian S. Wesbury | TEDxCountyLineRoad - YouTube
bankers are greedy & excess speculation, is the story. Fed controls short-term interest rate through interest rate setting/Fed meetings based on fundy of American economy, // NIRP (greenspan put) post dot.com, distorts market, decision makers decisions. housing bubble w help of NIRP after dot.com & home-ownership campaign in bush years (fiscal stimulus/subsidies) 2 push that "asset." Not "home" to live in. // banks got too big to fail (their balance sheet/lending book) as liabilities (toxic assets - real downside unknown (due to complexity and day to day changes during crisis years), like CDO/CDS etc) overtook book, overall, value. Banking being actually insolvent, but how insolvent one doesn't know. Thus bad bank idea. ACCOUNTING. // Paul Volker raised rates ... was able, because USA (private household, banks, corporates) were not in a balance sheet recession. Problem was endogenous. // Deregulation + Lax accounting contributed to GFC greatly, unable to value banks books.
GFC  economic  history  fractional  reserve  banking  financial  crisis  monetary  theory  systemicrisk  Greenspan-Put  NIRP  ZIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  interestrate  dot.com  reflation  reflate  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  savings  rate  leverage  alangreenspan  greenspan  Ben  Bernanke  benbernanke  distortion  housing  market  accounting  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  financial  market  financial  incentive  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  TARP  subprime  QE  stresstest  timgeithner  henrypaulson  economic  model  economic  damage  macroeconomic  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  history  paulvolcker  complexity  incomplete  information  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  confidence  banking  crisis  zombie  banks  mark-to-market  Janet  Yellen 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Robert J. Shiller: "Are We Headed for Another Financial Crisis?" (final edition, as of MAR 8) - YouTube
3rd ed adds bond market. where richard koo explains bond prices are a symptom of the balance sheet recession as is "deflationary." // liquidity trap // predicting turning points is bad business - highlighting fundy skew is easy. // equity bubble BURST? no. bond bubble BURST? no. how abt unreasonable higher interest rates for businesses bc of Taper from Fed long dated bonds into illiquid market. like Koo argues as possibility, which would depress gdp growth further bc of higher capital cost than the economy fundy actually would demand. contributing 2 the secular stagnation. // Other case: Crash of China (too much of a good thing, irrational exuberance) & Western Central Banks have no means 2 ease further & Career Politicians have no guts 2 actually pull out the guns for once 4 intelligent fiscal stimulus w a long-term view (no white elephants & bridges 2 nowhere). // 19:30 status anxiety, Sozialer Abstieg, everyone for himself, austerity, inequality, Software, etc = secular stagnation
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube
// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?
BIS  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  bond  bubble  Student  Loan  debt  debt  regulation  oversight  governance  BOE  simplicity  incomplete  information  academia  academics  economist  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  economic  history  systemicrisk  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  financial  market  sustainable  sustainability  mortgage  market  UK  USA  China  speculative  speculation  contagion  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  credit  boom  financial  cycle  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  political  economy  political  theory  centralbanks  economic  damage  economic  model  Richard  Koo  animal  spirit  austerity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  robertshiller  Robert  Shiller  ideology  dogma  sovereign  debt  crisis  populism  corporate  state  manufactured  consent  Lügenpresse  BOJ  Fed  currency  war  currency  debasement  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  Japan  hunt  for  yield  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Koo: "Out of the Balance Sheet Recession and into QE 'Trap'" - YouTube
Released new book end of 2014. // Banks unable to lend money 2 unwilling (eligible) customers. Money remains on the private banks (&Central Banks in form of bonds) balance sheets/books & mostly allocated towards parking it overnight @Central Banks deposit facility (thus ECB put up a deposit levy, late into the game) or liquid fairly un(der)productive investment classes like gov bonds. // Companies (& people ie 4 education/housing) borrowing & investing (into the future, that is uncertain, unknown, deflationary)!? // 19:30 Even Abenomics is not working. Bc trauma towards Debt! behavioural economics: experience of debt servitude on less income, additional uncertainty & distrust! // Lowering corporate tax rate (like George Osborne) does not help. // Persistent low inflation expectations. // Taper extremely difficult: 2.5trn excess in long bonds. Unknown territory. Possibly future higher interest rates than fnd economic growth does warrant - adding to output gap & new normal.
2015  UK  USA  liquidity  trap  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Japan  Fed  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  austerity  economic  history  economic  model  academia  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  LTRO  TLTRO  lost  decade  lost  generation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Career  Politicians  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  negative  real  interest  rate  deposit  levy  economic  growth  trickle-down  economics  secular  stagnation  headwinds  Great  Depression  PIIGSFB  PIGS  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  economic  damage  behavioral  economics  zombie  banks  Abenomics  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  cash  flow  cash  flow  management  trust  distrust  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  servitude  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  student  debt  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  competitiveness  competitive  industrial  policy  budget2015  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  demographic  bubble  uncertainty  Sozialer  Abstieg  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Yen  JGB  Taper  greatrecession  USD  dogma  ideology  public  investment  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  productive  investment  book  rate  private  savi 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
UK's inflation rate falls to 0% - BBC News
bit.ly/1IXuomp >> Carney: Current account deficit is a risk highlighted by FPC. UK is relying on the kindness of strangers to finance current account deficit. Household borrowing isn't driving the deficit Tighter fiscal policy is needed. Tighter macroeconomic policy is needed also. Deficit highlights importance of maintaining the attractiveness of the UK for foreign investment // &! bit.ly/1I07olT - BOE's Miles doesn't see secular stagnation in the UK [...] Carney - Health of the financial system is likely to boost productivity [really?] [...] McCafferty: Low income jobs have kept productivity low &! bit.ly/1JfaSxr - Bank is looking at the household sensitivity to rate rises [ mortgage bubble will prevent BOE to raise rates faster as demand stokes as more disposable income is spend on serving interest payments thus depressing GDP growth bc 70% of it is consumer spending ] &! bit.ly/1HtySg1
current  account  deficit  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  fairness  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  George  Osborne  productivity  output  gap  industrial  policy  STEM  Higher  Education  added  value  fiscal  policy  Public  infrastructure  investment  recovery  economic  history  competitiveness  competitive  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  borderless  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  zombie  banks  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  job  market  labour  market  labour  economics  skills  gap  policy  vocational  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  squeezed  middle  class  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  household  debt  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  underemployed  self-employment  employability  part-time  mortgage  market  BOE  2015  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  Manufacturing  fiscal  stimulus  Taper  USA  negative  real  interest  rate  interestrate  debt  servicing  interest  payment  consumer  debt 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Fenwick and West’s Q4 venture financing report shows healthy levels of optimism with a dash of irrationality | PandoDaily
One interesting point noted in Fenwick’s report is that valuations were strong across series, meaning that once investors grow comfortable pulling the trigger on a particular company and team, they’re not shy about paying up for the right to participate in a given round. Continuing the founder-friendly theme, the rounds raised in the most recent quarter contained limited “structure,” meaning that investor-friendly terms like liquidation preference were rarely present. It’s not just Silicon Valley or North America that are benefitting from growth in venture activity. China, Europe, and India have all saw substantial increases in VC investment in 2014 over the prior year, and are up considerably over the last five years. Only Israel, among popular international venture markets remained flat year-over-year, as it has done for much of the last decade. [...] Another intersting trend [...] is the rise in activity among corporate (aka, strategic) investors.
Venture  Capital  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  2014  2015  hunt  for  yield  NIRP  ZIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  distortion 
february 2015 by asterisk2a
Andreessen: High burn rates risk more than just running out of cash | PandoDaily
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable  a16z  Marc  Andreessen  Ben  Horowitz  SF  war  for  talent  labour  economics  labour  market 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Not that negative after all - YouTube
- nbdy is taking up the money to invest in his business (increase capacity, R&D, etc etc), becs there is no demand ... what is holding up the western world is the service economy - especially in UK and USA! - and then there is one particular structural impediment in Germany et al, demographic bubble.
monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  TLTRO  OMT  ABS  LTRO  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  trust  trustagent  confidence  creditcrunch  economic  history  Europe  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  deficit  imbalance  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  PIGS  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  Exportweltmeister  Germany  BuBa  austerity  IMF  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  zombie  banks  distortion  business  business  confidence  BRIC  MINT  USA  UK  MarioDraghi  Demand  Shock  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  industrial  policy  manufacturing  Services  Industry  service  economy  service  recovery  GFC  2014  consumer  confidence  output  gap  productivity 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
ESM: Kreditprogramm ausgereizt - Nachfrage fehlt im Euro-Raum - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Bankenrettungsschirm ESM soll jetzt helfen, Unternehmen mit Krediten zu versorgen. Ein Vorschlag von beeindruckender Mutlosigkeit. Wesentlich wirksamer wäre es, das Geld per Hubschrauber über der Eurozone abzuwerfen. [...] Wäre es nicht besser, sich zunächst einmal zu fragen, welches Problem wir hier eigentlich lösen wollen? Ist Liquidität wirklich das Problem? Wohl kaum. Die Europäische Zentralbank legt dauernd neue Liquiditätsprogramme für den Bankensektor auf. Und was passiert? Die Banken wollen das Geld nicht und zahlen lieber die alten Kredite schnell zurück. Wenn Liquidität nicht mehr das Problem ist, wie soll dann ein Kreditprogramm helfen? [...] Firmen wollen keine Kredite, sie wollen Aufträge +!+!+!+ http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/18/ecbs-tltro-program-analysts-roundup/ +!+!+!+ ZIRP also never arrive for businesses.
ESM  TLTRO  LTRO  ABS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ECB  fiscal  policy  Pact  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  Europe  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Germany  zombie  banks  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  financial  repression  liquidity  trap  lost  decade  lost  generation  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  recovery  greatrecession  BRIC  MINT  Exportweltmeister  USA  UK  flat  world  secular  stagnation  stagnation  stagflation  economic  history  austerity  IMF  Richard  Koo  globalization  globalisation  uncertainty 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Winter Is (Probably) Coming (Soon) | TechCrunch
"The more you boost your burn, the more risk you take on. [...] The underlying point of Gurley’s and Wilson’s respective riffs is that many companies will have to reduce their burn in the future. And it won’t be easy. And the pair likely won’t be willing to give larger sums to companies that just torched their prior round in ways that they didn’t precisely approve of. Cash is the oxygen of business. When it runs out, the company dies." ... being nimble, frugal, Lean, conservative ... via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8338411
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Burn Baby Burn – AVC
From one of the comments: "f you're backing companies that have bootstrapped their start, you get a different, focussed culture & attitude on burn rates and costs. It forces you to think twice about every cost item. You're running as fast as you can to get traction, customers, product, team, everything aligned within tight costs. It's not about frugality but more aligned to reality. " +++ via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8324047 +++ !!! Fancy Offices - bit.ly/1piSnxO +++ !!! +++ "Gurley and Wilson point to sky high burn rates, not valuations as the red flag in Silicon Valley [...] Gurley and Wilson are lamenting the exorbitant burn rates that have become the norm among venture-backed startups and the lack of fear and accountability signaled by this hyper-aggressive approach." - bit.ly/1m93G0M +++ !!! +++ bit.ly/YQY2WS +++ !!! +++ "Which VCs Have the Most Portfolio Companies with $100M+ of Funding?" - bit.ly/1wo7BHF
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Venture Capitalist Sounds Alarm on Silicon Valley Risk - WSJ
"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." And then you wrote: "Although we may have not reached the level of observing obvious greediness, there is most certainly an absence of fear. Those that managed companies in 2008, or 13 years ago in 2001, know exactly how fear feels. And this is not it." [...] Right now youve got private companies raising $200, $400, $500 million. If youre in a competitive ecosystem & you raise that amount of money, the only way you use it—because these companies are all human-based, theyre not like building stores—is to take your burn up. [2 things: exorbitant high burn rates like '99 & the allure of working for $ loosing companies. &the justification is 'it's Landgrab time,it's still day 1'] &living cost, employee cost &perk &rent cost in SV/SF &surroundings isnt helping either. rising cost is fuelling burn rates &valuations w/ big ABC-Rounds. Didnt we have the glorification of Lean ~3 years ago? A bubble is one WHEN IT POPS!
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Farewell to the mother of all depressions
[ THE RECOVERY, THE GLASS IS HALF FULL. PERIOD. ]But nonetheless many will be slightly depressed that although the service economy is now just under 3% bigger than it was at the peak, manufacturing is still more than 7% smaller, and the production industries as a whole have been diminished by 11%. As I have bored on about for a while, although it is heart-warming to see UK manufacturing growing right now, there has been no rebalancing of the economy back towards the makers. Also, within services, the contribution of shoppers to the recovery remains immense - and the retail trade made the biggest contribution to the latest quarter's services surge. That suggests we may be at a premature end to households' attempts to strengthen their finances and pay down debts - and shows that growth in the economy remains perilously sensitive to the cost of money.
UK  recovery  greatrecession  2014  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  zombie  consumer  debtoverhang  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  BOE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  greatdepression  lost  decade  lost  generation  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  underemployed  IMF  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  London  economies  of  agglomeration  Aberdeen  industrial  policy  comparative  advantage  competitiveness  competitive  advantage  tax  code  taxation  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  tax  credit  tax  free  income  GFC  creditcrisis  creditcrunsh  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  manufacturing  Consumerism  consumerist  consumer  debt  reflation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  household  debt  economic  history 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB cuts rates and launches stimulus programme
1-Day Before: http://youtu.be/_6D_xVeoIXs "ECB faces crunch on deflation threat" +++ The ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05%, and introduced new stimulus measures. The ECB had earlier cut its rate from 0.25% to 0.15% in June, and also became the first major central bank to introduce negative interest rates. It will also launch an asset purchase programme, which will buy debt products from banks. It is hoped this move will add liquidity to the financial system and revive lending. [...] "[A] last roll of the dice". "The ECB has now almost exhausted its ammunition for preventing the Eurozone sliding into a devastating deflationary, contractionary spiral," +++ Analysis: http://youtu.be/IErml4SmKmE "European banks – Work those ABS" +++ bit.ly/1A6pmLU - France and Friends: Merkel Increasingly Isolated on Austerity "Europe ... is threatened with lasting weak growth should the deficit rules continue to be strictly interpreted. [ BuBa demands higher wages, ECB fiscal stimulus ]."
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september 2014 by asterisk2a
8 Reasons Why A New Global Financial Crisis Could Be On The Way - NASDAQ.com
Like any other bubble, it will only become one once it bursts. What is different in 2014 is that now central banks have a great tool to prevent real estate bubbles: Basel III and its countercyclical capital buffer. [...] Let us not forget the lessons of the Great War (we are now commemorating the 100-year anniversary): the butterfly effect can be deadly in politics. +++ http://ti.me/1r4NfEy "Raghuram Rajan, the governor of India's central bank, fears supereasy money from the world’s central banks is inflating assets and encouraging bad investments. [...] Long-term low interest rates and unorthodox programs to stimulate economies — like quantitative easing, or QE — could be laying the groundwork for more turmoil in financial markets, he argues. [...] With inflation not being strong, this can continue for some time until things are so stretched that any signs of inflation, and a rise in interest rates, could precipitate a fairly strong market reaction. Certainly [...] volatility hurts[.]
equity  bubble  asset  bubble  shadow  banking  China  Basel3  Basel  III  centralbanks  BIS  bubbles  bubble  butterfly  effect  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  QE  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  Raghuram  Rajan  zombie  banks  NPL  PIGS  geopolitics  Middle  East  ISIS  Islamic  State  Ukrain  Ukraine  radicalism  Putin  vladimirputin  Russia  Europe  USA  foreign  affairs  diplomacy  NATO  IMF  austerity  secular  stagnation  stagnation  deflation  deflationary  uncertainty  Wall  Street  volatility  Taper  distortion  trust  trustagent  confidence  BRIC  India  MINT  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  emerging  market  flat  globalisation  globalization 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Bundesbank Open to Significant ECB Stimulus in June if 2016 Inflation Forecasts Lowered - WSJ.com
BuBa  Bundesbank  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  PIGS  recovery  2014  ZIRP  OMT  negative  real  interest  rate  NIRP  monetary  stimulus  stimulus  economic  history  deflation  deflationary  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  long-term  unemployment  structural  imbalance  Impediments  structural  unemployment  Europe  Career  Politicians  IMF  MarioDraghi  participation  rate  productivity  Germany  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  structural  deficit  negative  deposit  rate  deposit  facility  overnight  deposit  facility 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Debt crisis will hurt millions, says think tank
Millions of UK households will face "perilous" levels of debt when interest rates begin to rise, according to a think tank focused on living standards. The number of people using more than half their disposable income to repay debt could rise from 600,000 to a 1.1 million by 2018 if interest rates rise to 3%, said the Resolution Foundation. If rates hit 5%, two million households would face huge repayments, it said. Mortgages are the largest source of UK household debt.
Debt  Super  Cycle  household  UK  private  consumer  mortage  property  bubble  housing  market  2013  ZIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  complexity  zombie  consumer  NPL  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  BOE  Mark  Carney  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  hunt  for  yield 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Die Gefahren des Jahres 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Beide Seiten haben Grund zu Pessimismus. Die strukturkonservative Bundeskanzlerin sieht mit Schrecken, dass Frankreich, Spanien und Italien keineswegs geneigt sind, deutsch zu werden. Euro-föderale Kritiker wie ich sind darüber enttäuscht, dass es weder eine Fiskalunion noch eine echte Bankenunion geben wird. Für uns ist das, was letzte Woche beschlossen wurde, keine Bankenunion, sondern nur ein schlechter Witz. Jedes Land bleibt für seinen eigenen Bankensektor verantwortlich. Das vorrangige ökonomische Ziel, die Risiken von Banken und Staaten zu trennen, ist dahin. Stattdessen ist die Bankenunion nur noch ein komplizierter administrativer Prozess.
Europe  europeanunion  banking  union  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  austerity  2013  2014  France  Spain  Italy  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  Japan  economic  history  history  Angela  Merkel  political  folly  political  error  FrancoisHollande  policy  error  policy  folly  ECB  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richardkoo  reflation  deflationary  deflation  inflation  ZIRP  QE  LTRO  unintended  consequences  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  unconventional  monetary  policy 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
EZB hält Leitzins auf historischem Tiefstand - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Trotz der niedrigen Zinsen kommt das billige Geld derzeit nicht bei Unternehmen und Haushalten an. Vor allem in Südeuropa ist die Kreditvergabe weiter rückläufig. Um das zu ändern, wird im EZB-Rat über den Einsatz unkonventioneller Instrumente nachgedacht. Dazu gehören zum Beispiel negative Zinsen für Einlagen der Banken der EZB, aber auch neue langfristige Finanzspritzen.
liquidity-trap  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  system  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  LTRO  OMT  negative  real  interest  rate  deflationary  deflation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  unintended  consequences  complexity  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  PIGS  recovery  austerity  liberal  economic  reform  trust  trustagent  confidence  policy  error  policy  folly  political  folly  political  error  economic  history  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  divergence  Super  Cycle  lostdecade  lostgeneration  stagflation  stagnation  secular  stagnation  Japan 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
Hamburg, München, Berlin: Mieten in Großstädten steigen weiter - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Ursache sei vor allem die Wohnungsknappheit in den Städten, in die immer mehr Menschen zögen. Die Entwicklung gebe es aber bereits seit einigen Jahren. "Nach mehreren Jahrzehnten stagnierender Immobilienpreise befindet sich der deutsche Immobilienmarkt seit 2010 in einer Boomphase", teilte das Institut mit. Die höchsten Mietpreissteigerungen habe es seit Anfang 2010 in Berlin, München, Freiburg, Ulm und Wolfsburg gegeben.
unintended  consequences  ZIRP  Beton  Gold  QE  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  Germany  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  2013  urbanisation  Gentrified  urban  planning  demographics  demography  Demographic 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
Hugh Hendry Capitulates: "Can't Look At Himself In The Mirror" As He Throws In The Towel, Turns Bullish | Zero Hedge
First David Rosenberg, then Jeremy Grantham, and now Hugh Hendry: one after another the bears are throwing in the towel. As Investment Week reports, speaking at Harrington Cooper's 2013 conference this morning, Hugh Hendry said "he is no longer fighting the two-way feedback loop which is continuing to boost risk assets." The reflexive feedback loop envisioned by Hendry is the following and centres on the currency war being played out between the US and China, "in which US QE prompts dollar-denominated investment to head to China, and China fights the resulting upwards pressure on its currency by manufacturing an investment boom. Hendry said this creates a "global supply glut", leading to falling US inflation expectations (as this supply far outweights US domestic demand) - which in turn prompts the Federal Reserve to loosen policy once again." Rinse. Repeat. [... DONT FIGHT THE FED ...] [...] You have got to be in things that are trending.
HughHendry  supply-demand  savings  glut  supply  glut  QE  ZIRP  deflation  deflationary  reflation  inflation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  liquidity  liquidity-trap  WallStreet  asset  bubble  blackswan  fat  tail  Fed  GFC  Debt  Super  Cycle  trading  proptrading  hunt  for  yield  financial  repression  New  Normal 
november 2013 by asterisk2a
Banks Warn Fed They May Have To Start Charging Depositors | Zero Hedge
In other words, just like Europe is already toying with the idea of NIRP (and has been for over a year, if still mostly in the rheotrical and market rumor phase), so the Fed's IOER cut would also result in a negative rate on deposits which the FT tongue-in-cheekly summarizes "depositors already have to cope with near-zero interest rates, but paying just to leave money in the bank would be highly unusual and unwelcome for companies and households."
Fed  Taper  ECB  NIRP  ZIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  modern  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  UK  IOER  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  economic  history  balance  sheet  asset  bubble  complexity  2013 
november 2013 by asterisk2a
David Stockman Blasts "It's 2007/8 All Over Again" | Zero Hedge
"This is a destructive poisonous monetary medicine that is being put into the system that is distorting all kinds of economic mechanisms with malinvestments on a massive scale"
QE  ZIRP  Fed  WallStreet  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  hunt  for  yield  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  USA  UK  Europe  2013  asset  bubble  reflation  deflation  deflationary  unintended  consequences 
november 2013 by asterisk2a
OECD Warns UK Faces Housing Bubble | Zero Hedge
The Great House Price Bubble? - http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03j0nw1 + http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-13/uk-realtors-ask-central-bank-halt-housing-bubble " Estate agents and surveyors have become so concerned about the dangers of another unsustainable housing boom that their trade body is urging the Bank of England to limit national house price growth to 5 per cent a year. " ... same in Germany's Cities.
property  bubble  UK  demand  and  supply  supply-demand  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Politics  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  2013  policy  folly  policy  error  Germany  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  bubble  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  monetary  policy  BOE  ECB 
november 2013 by asterisk2a
▶ Lower living standards in Britain: The squeezed middle - YouTube
in details picture of UK is not healthy ... is not even moving into a healthier picture. debt plays still a huge role >> Number of buy-to-let rising http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBrNrv_H9dM >> lack of stable skills jobs is one of the root. and the short-term thinking that debt will be affordable for ever. + >> http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/12/uk-home-buyers-boost-purchases/
manufacturing  unemployment  employment  monetary  policy  Politics  Mark  Carney  unintended  consequences  davidcameron  squeeze  negative  real  interest  rate  standard  of  living  living  standard  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  QE  Buy-to-Let  NIRP  2013  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  fiscal  policy  stagflation  working  poor  property  bubble  UK  ZIRP  austerity  middle  class  zombie  consumer  long-term  unemployment  GeorgeOsborne  wage  stagnation 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau über die Zinspolitik der EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Aber am Ende ist das alles Haarspalterei. Es läuft auf dasselbe Ergebnis hinaus: Die Zinsen werden lange bei null bleiben, wahrscheinlich über mehrere Jahre. Solange es keine Anzeichen für eine dauerhaft steigende Inflation gibt - und die wird es auf absehbare Zeit nicht geben - solange wird sich dieser Ausblick nicht ändern. [...] Es besteht ein klarer Zusammenhang zwischen Geldmenge und den Preisen für Wertpapiere. [...] Es besteht die akute Gefahr, dass ähnlich wie in Japan vor zwanzig Jahren die Geldpolitik nicht greift, solange der Bankensektor so krank ist.
Greece  monetary  policy  JörgAsmussen  bond  bubble  incentive  asset  bubble  Europe  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  sentiment  BOE  banking  crisis  deflation  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  dis-inflation  deleveraging  asset  allocation  inflation  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Spain  GFC  capital  allocation  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  banking  union  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  LTRO  OMT  NIRP  communication  Fed  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetarism  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
The Reason For China's Epic 1 Trillion Yuan Deleveraging: The Biggest Housing Bubble Ever | Zero Hedge
We shall see how much they approve when the massive deleveraging results in a 3% GDP print as we warned previously, crushing their year end bonuses in the process. [...] The country is about to undergo an unprecedented deleveraging that could amount to over CNY1 trillion in order to force reallocate capital in a more efficient basis. That's right: a massive deleveraging coming dead ahead in China just in time to shock the market still reeling from the threat of the Fed's tapering. [...] So there you have it: no matter what China has attempted, no matter how much it has punished the Shanghai Composite, it has been completely unable to offset the endogenous and/or exogenous (Fed, ECB, BOJ hot money) credit from sending the Chinese housing bubble into absolutely stratospheric levels. [...] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10164580/Chinese-banking-a-Wild-West-in-the-Far-East.html
currency  debasement  real  estate  bubble  monetary  policy  currency  war  capital  allocation  stimulus  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  fiscal  stimulus  BOE  banking  crisis  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  shadow  economy  BOJ  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  hot  money  China  credit  bubble  banking  system  NIRP  2013  recession  Fed  shadowbanking  economic  history  NPL  shadow  banking  fiscal  policy  bubbles  property  bubble  creditcrunch  bad  bank  ZIRP  USA  Taper  zombie  bank  deleveraging  toobigtofail  PBOC  Muddy  Waters  Research  faultlines 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Politik der niedrigen Zinsen: Nordstaaten verhinderten Zinssenkung - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Geldpolitiker der Nordländer in der EU beharren auf ihrer Linie: Gemeinsam verhinderten Bundesbank-Präsident Weidmann und seine Kollegen nach SPIEGEL-Informationen eine weitere Leitzinssenkung der EZB. [...] Doch sieben Ratsmitglieder, vor allem aus den Nordstaaten, argumentierten heftig dagegen. Darunter waren nicht nur der deutsche Bundesbank-Chef Jens Weidmann und der Niederländer Klaas Knot, sondern auch das deutsche Mitglied des geschäftsführenden Direktoriums, Jörg Asmussen.
QE  NIRP  JörgAsmussen  Europe  creditcrunch  M3  Bundesbank  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  ZIRP  Jens  Weidmann  negative  real  interest  rate  banking  crisis  ECB  bank  crisis  creditcrisis 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Carmen Reinhart: "No Doubt. Our Pensions Are Screwed." | Zero Hedge
Only when inflation picks up, which is ultimately going to happen, will it become obvious that central banks have become subservient to governments." [...] Nations "seldom just grow themselves out of debt," as so many believe is possible, "you need a combination of austerity, so that you don't add further to the pile of debt, and higher inflation, which is effectively a subtle form of taxation," with the consequence that people are going to lose their savings. Reinhart succinctly summarizes, "no doubt, our pensions are screwed." [...] http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/interview-with-harvard-economist-carmen-reinhart-on-financial-repression-a-893213.html / http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/how-central-banks-are-threatening-the-savings-of-normal-germans-a-860021.html
monetization  unemployment  monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  modern  monetary  theory  transferring-wealth  reflation  academia  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  carmenreinhart  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  deposit  levy  creditcrisis  QE  2013  moralhazard  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  creditcrunch  bail-in  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  inflation  centralbanks  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  debt  jubilee  haircut  unintended  consequences  Troika  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  debt  restructuring  bank  crisis  Abenomics  greatrecession  debtoverhang  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  bailout 
april 2013 by asterisk2a

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