asterisk2a + productivity + history   178

Millions of families 'worse off' than 15 years ago - BBC News
[ decades of underinvestment across the plane of the economy, infrastructure education skills ] On the "why", research by the Foundation - which was set up to look at the problem of low incomes - reveals that the economy has struggled to create wealth for people in work.
JAM  working  poor  poverty  trap  productivity  output  gap  class  Brexit  skills  education  policy  social  income  mobility  Austerity  downward  UK  recovery  secular  stagnation  stagflation  economic  history  GFC  debt  household  disposable  globalisation  globalization  Competition  competitive  competitiveness  underinvestment  London  child  childhood  Council  public  health 
july 2018 by asterisk2a
(10204) Are We Destined for a Slow Growth Future? - YouTube
- shortage on the demand side. but demand can't be more leveraged and borrowed. ALL economic indicators point against a thriving of the UK bottom up (from household finances, are stretched thinly) //&! Gross wages lower than 10 years ago! Lost decade of earnings. In real terms people are NOT better off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0anqgXLvwko
secular  stagnation  Brexit  household  debt  consumer  UK  USA  loan  GFC  recovery  Productivity  output  gap  economic  history  leverage  underinvestment  banking  property  bubble  housing  demographic  immigration  working  poor  poverty  Austerity  Trickle-down  Gesellschaft  DonaldTrump  Donald  Trump  inequality  social  mobility  income  Society  inflation  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  debt-servicing  OECD  IMF  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  Fed  globalisation  globalization  trap  credit  card  creditcard  creditcrunch  student  auto 
july 2018 by asterisk2a
Capitalism’s Crisis of Stagnation and Austerity
After the 2008-09 financial crisis, the hope was that a combination of economic recovery, inflation and austerity would shrink the debt mountain. This, though, was too optimistic. Growth has been below par, inflation subdued and austerity self-defeating. (“Global debt is the danger: beware the butterfly moment” Financial Times 6 January 2018)
Kapital  Capital  productivity  Austerity  economic  history  secular  stagnation  demand  output  gap  UK  USA  Germany  income  growth  debt  bubble  inflation  service  QE  monetary  fiscal  policy  underinvestment  Exploitation  atomised 
february 2018 by asterisk2a
Homebase owners may close up to 40 stores - BBC News
[first the supermarkets, then everyone else, also UK restaurant trade struggling, especially mid-market! anything above your payday takeout, also housing growth is slowing down thus DIY ] UK retailers are struggling in the face of rising inflation and fragile consumer confidence.

Several store chains have announced job cuts recently, including supermarket giants Tesco, Sainsbury's and Asda.

Homebase's rival, B&Q, last week said it was cutting 200 jobs at its head office in Hampshire as part of a cost-cutting drive. &! https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/05/uk-services-sector-growth-falls-hotels-restaurants-brexit - Demand weakens for services such as restaurants and hotels amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty
UK  Brexit  disposable  income  economy  discretionary  spending  growth  wage  Productivity  High  Street  Precariat  working  poor  poverty  trap  social  mobility  pay  rise  inflation  broke  household  debt  credit  card  leverage  recovery  secular  stagnation  history  GFC  Austerity  underinvestment  output  gap  HighStreet  Services  Service 
february 2018 by asterisk2a
Is the property ladder just a myth? | Money | The Guardian
a national ill-guided unfortune (for all in aggregate) bringing obsession. its a bubble. its heavily subsidizes. its political. it suck resources out of the "productive" economy. its a monopoly oligopoly duopoly vested interest industry. no consumer rights. and what is build is sub par compared to europe. UK is known for its bad quality house among EU expats. // The theory is that a couple owning a starter home and considering children could afford to move into a bigger property – but with household income falling, that idea is increasingly unrealistic
UK  housing  crisis  productivity  underinvestment  malvestment  bubble  economic  history  Politics  social  income  mobility  lottery  gini  Coefficient  postcode  parents 
january 2018 by asterisk2a
(4387) How the opioid crisis decimated the American workforce - YouTube
direct link between out of work (injury) and opioid addiction and dropping out of workforce. // &! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKXWelf-ZvA - Neuroscientist Dr. Carl Hart: People Are Dying in Opioid Crisis Because of Politicians’ Ignorance - needle exchange and free drug purity checks is a step to reducing overdose deaths and first foot in door for rehab (liberal) //&! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNj89ohoYQ0 - American Epidemic: The Nation's Struggle With Opioid Addiction WSJ &! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfe8pol6OG4 - The Opioid Effect: An Ohio Family Rebuilds After Addiction VICE //&! AMERICA ADDICTED - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w67IDMY2tn8 - A community overwhelmed by opioids &! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGITecuBEHQ - Who Profits from the Opioid Crisis? Meet the Secretive Sackler Family Making Billions from OxyContin - watering down regulation and oversight. &! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPk6VinYG-k - How Big Pharma & Cartels Got America Addicted to Heroin with Jason Smith &! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnviuDOvhlg - US Addiction Epidemic Fuelled By Pharma Corporations (2015) "pill mill" &! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmJEY1CTgKg - Why Portsmouth, Ohio Became The Epicentre of America's Opioid Crisis &! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lof9_iPAWAY - Opioid Crisis in Maine &! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQtCTxO2hTM - Narcan On The Rise &! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNWU6XSjb-c - Heroin's Children: Inside the US opioid crisis - Fault Lines
addiction  coping  chronic  stress  abuse  opioid  dopamine  crisis  epidemic  narcotics  war  on  drugs  USA  painkillers  economic  damage  workforce  Precariat  working  poor  structural  unemployment  food  S.A.D.  western  diet  lifestyle  insecurity  trap  poverty  inequality  American  Dream  secular  stagnation  wage  income  growth  Productivity  output  gap  GFC  history  Super  Rich  1%  trickle-down  Sociology  socioeconomic  Society  Gesellschaft  Xanax  fentanyl  alcohol  heroin  overdose  Consumerism  mental  health  well-being  wellbeing  Capitalism  Consumer  Selbstdarstellung  consumption  Austerity  welfare  state  neoliberalism  OxyContin  lobby  pharma  pharmaceutical  BigPharma  revolving  door  vested  interest  Regulation  regulators  self-regulation  substance 
november 2017 by asterisk2a
(4081) Warum wir alle ärmer werden – Top-Ökonom erklärt die Gründe! // Mission Money - YouTube
houses are unproductive / schuldeninfusion erhaelt am leben, zombie u.a. / wer bezahlt fuer EU schuldenschnitt? / German econ illusion / banken in eu immernoch sanierungsbeduerftig /
Productivity  output  gap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  book  Robotics  AI  augmented  artificial  intelligence  GFC  recovery  debt  overhang  Austerity  household  wage  growth  inflation  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Japan  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  income  zombie  Richard  Koo  disposable  discretionary  spending  bank  bailout  NPL 
october 2017 by asterisk2a
UK's low pay culture traps people in poorly paid jobs, study finds | Society | The Guardian
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41669991 - high tech, low life. // in-work poverty, gini coefficient takes into account pensioners. // “Britain has one of the highest proportions of low-paid work in the developed world. And while three-quarters of low-paid workers did manage to move into higher-paying roles at some point over the past decade, the vast majority couldn’t sustain that progress. This lack of pay progress can have a huge scarring effect on people’s lifetime living standards. [...] “Britain’s flexible workforce gives us global economic advantage but a two-tier labour market is now exacting too high a social price.
OECD  poverty  trap  social  income  mobility  Precariat  class  UK  zero  hour  contracts  part-time  Exploitation  neoliberalism  workers  trade  union  rights  skills  skill  gap  Productivity  output  London  economic  history  recovery  GFC  underinvestment  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Austerity  education  inequality  tax  credit  taxcredit  gini  Coefficient  standard  of  living  Brexit  inflation  disposable  discretionary  spending  debt  household  child  profit  maximisation  competitiveness  IMF 
october 2017 by asterisk2a
Millennials spend three times more of income on housing than grandparents | Society | The Guardian
Millennials are spending three times more of their income on housing than their grandparents yet are often living in worse accommodation, says a study launched by former Conservative minister David Willetts that warns of a “housing catastrophe”. [....] They are four times as likely to rent privately than two generations ago, a sector which has the worst record for housing quality, the report claims.
Millennials  UK  housing  crisis  affordable  social  Generation  Rent  Generationengerechtigkeit  babyboomers  baby  boomers  disposable  discretionary  income  Spending  Generationy  GenY  oligopol  oligopoly  Corruption  lobby  vested  interest  bubble  underinvestment  Austerity  debt  revolving  door  asset  distortion  London  Productivity  output  gap  skills  student  loan  GFC  mortgage  risk  recovery  secular  stagnation  lost  lostdecade  decade  history  Margaret  Thatcher 
september 2017 by asterisk2a
Where have all the movers gone? - Council of Mortgage Lenders
It should be known by now that the policy of a home owning democracy supported by London and exploited by London was and is and will be a catastrophe to the productivity and skills of this economy. Because of the misdirected money flows into unproductive houses (capital, asset for retirement, welfare, social mobility of kids). To the contrary of Germany. When policy of capital investment is geared towards poductive investments, assets, capital, skills, expansion, R&D. And where renters have rights! //&! https://twitter.com/resi_analyst/status/880801297208889344 - The housing ladder only worked because of the unique economic conditions of the late 20th century. It's now broken and unlikely to recover. & https://twitter.com/tomhousing/status/881775765033025536 - and houses don't pay taxes (NI, pension pot).
Housing  Crisis  Generationengerechtigkeit  Generation  Rent  mortgage  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  UK  Lobby  Lobbying  Policy  speculation  ROI  underinvestment  malinvestment  productivity  output  gap  skills  economic  history  Brexit  London  shareholder  profit  maximisation 
july 2017 by asterisk2a
(2195) Mark Blyth Telling The US Senate That Austerity Policy Is Wrong - YouTube
Mark Blyth & Makers v Takers & Erbschaft & asset & capital tax // wolfgang schäuble George Osborne David Cameron // >> Growth cures debt, cuts / austerity causes debt!!!
Mark  Blyth  UK  USA  Austerity  taxation  corporate  corporatism  welfare  state  NHS  income  tax  GFC  asset  capital  recovery  underinvestment  secular  stagnation  bond  bubble  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  productivity  budget  Super  Rich  Plutocracy  trickle-down  Oligarchy  1%  10%  profit  maximisation  shareholder  immigration  gini  Coefficient  FX  Forex  confidence  fairy  globalisation  evasion  avoidance  HMRC  bank  bailout  badbank  bad  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  PIGS  Policy  IMF  BIS  ECB  Fed 
july 2017 by asterisk2a
Yes this really is the end of Tory austerity – because it was never about economics in the first place | The Independent
[private sector will pick up the tap - the households did, but not corporations! bc long-term ROI growth in not attractive in the west w secular stagnation! see Richard Koo ] But it was a very long time coming. It became clear within a year of George Osborne’s 2010 “emergency budget”, which forced through huge cuts in capital budgets and an intense squeeze on Whitehall departments and welfare spending, that the austerity medicine was hurting, not helping.

The economy was flatlining, teetering on the verge of recession. Whether this was primarily due to the crisis in the neighbouring eurozone and a spike in global oil prices or because the negative knock-on impact of the government’s domestic spending cuts was bigger than initially thought is still debated by economists.
Austerity  Brexit  GE2017  Confidence  Fairy  GFC  bank  bailout  welfare  state  living  standard  deficit  debt  government  household  personal  loan  credit  card  creditcard  underinvestment  inequality  economic  history  social  mobility  income  growth  wage  disposable  discretionary  spending  gini  coefficient  tax  evasion  avoidance  taxation  corporate  taxcut  capital  labour  Productivity  output  gap  recovery  secular  stagnation  infrastructure  investment  Privatisation  Theresa  May  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Ideology  neoliberal  neoliberalism  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bond  bubble  asset  reflation  housing  distortion  malinvestment  stimulus  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  RichardKoo  Koo  Richard 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
The ten graphs which show how Britain became a wholly owned subsidiary of the City of London (and what we can do about it) – New thinking for the British economy
[ uk banks overinvested enabled by political policy into houses and high streets. underinvested in productive capital like R&D companies in general etc ] >> But it doesn’t increase the productive capacity of the economy one iota: a more expensive house doesn’t produce more intelligent children, and a higher share price doesn’t boost a company’s productivity (though it can indirectly boost its capacity to raise funds for investment). [...] Debt-financed asset purchases are thus fundamentally a Ponzi activity: // not just tight housing supply is increasing prices, but also easy credit/debt/mortgage market! // [...] ultimately, there is a limit to just how much debt individuals and corporations can take on – even with low interest rates
UK  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  housing  market  mortgage  household  consumer  debt  disposable  income  servitude  GFC  recovery  wage  growth  Ponzi  asset  capital  Kapital  BOE  credit  card  affordable  social  servicing  default  rate  insolvency  speculation  unintended  consequences  economic  history  consumption  secular  stagnation  Brexit  policy  fiscal  monetary  Mark  Carney  underinvestment  productivity  R&D  Career  Politicians  Margaret  Thatcher 
may 2017 by asterisk2a
Budget 2017: Hammond to tell us the Brexit vote could have been worse | Business | The Guardian
consumers carried on spending and businesses continued to expand.

The picture for the public finances is also looking rosier compared with Hammond’s maiden autumn statement in November. [...] But here’s what the chancellor will not tell you: living costs have gone up and will continue to do so. The poorest will be hit hardest as the cost of essentials such as food and heating take a growing chunk out of already tight family budgets. Wages will struggle to match rises in inflation and the government’s benefit cuts mean that incomes will fall for the poorest people in Britain. In short, unless the government does something significant to improve living standards this week, inequality will start rising again.
UK  JAM  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  Theresa  May  Philip  Hammond  Austerity  DWP  HMRC  inflation  wage  growth  social  mobility  inequality  income  Tories  Productivity  child  poverty  trap  output  gap  recovery  GFC  bank  bailout  nasty  party  Conservative  Generationengerechtigkeit  babyboomers  Millennials  generation  rent  living  standard  discretionary  spending  disposable  credit  taxation  household  debt  mortgage  housing  crisis  Consumer  Consumerism  economic  history  neoliberalism  interventionism  crony  capitalism  tax  evasion  avoidance  corporatism  Exploitation  zero  hour  contract  part-time  minimum  generational  divide  Triple  Lock  Pension 
march 2017 by asterisk2a
Tory spending pledges on police, education and childcare 'at risk' | Politics | The Guardian
[ after 7 years of austerity, no end in sight, debt keeps climbing, no to little investment, ... now you have to break promises from 2010 that there are protected budgets, ... to meet your fucking debt reduction promise ] Conservative promises to protect spending on police, sixth form education and childcare are at risk as Philip Hammond demands £3.5bn in new cuts from his cabinet colleagues, according to an analysis by the IPPR thinktank. The IPPR believes the government will not be able to hit its savings target, even allowing for proposed budget cuts, at the same time as meeting spending promises made by George Osborne when he was chancellor. [...] when the Treasury announced a new new drive for “efficiency savings” earlier this week, the only spending commitments that were reaffirmed were Conservative manifesto pledges to protect the core schools budgets and the NHS; and a subsequent promise to meet the Nato target of spending 2% of GDP on defence. [...] “the police budget could now face a further £250 to £500m in cuts that the public were not aware of”. [ LOTS OF UNINTENDED CONSQUENCES ABOUND, YOU SAVED HERE, BUT COSTS CREATED THERE, KNOCK ON EFFECTS! SHORT AND LONG-TERM! ie skills and social mobility, meaning less taxable income in the future bc stagnant wages & living standards, then you still try meet you debt reduction targets and you start cutting off fingers, hands, foot, ... ]
Brexit  Austerity  UK  George  Osborne  Philip  Hammond  David  Cameron  Theresa  May  IMF  underinvestment  Productivity  economic  history  GFC  bank  bailout  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  NHS  education  policy  NATO  Police  Council  elderly  care  adult  social  Prison  homelessness  homeless  poverty  drug  abuse  self-medication  coping  mechanism 
march 2017 by asterisk2a
'It feels like a wilfully ignored secret': how commentators painted Stoke-on-Trent all wrong | UK news | The Guardian
(career) politician placards and journalists (headline grabbing) can only tell one-line slogan stories. ... for "ordinary people" there is just no space. and they can't make space for them. [...] Not many of these accounts left any room for complexity, nor any recognition of Stoke’s collective push for regeneration and revival, and plenty of local people greeted them with a mixture of anger and anxiety. [ also sold out to professional class, the ascendent as on the other side of the pond ]
Brexit  complexity  DonaldTrump  Donald  Trump  AfD  PEGIDA  economic  history  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  globalisation  globalization  underinvestment  Austerity  Storytelling  GFC  bank  bailout  trickle-down  inequality  social  mobility  structural  unemployment  underemployment  part-time  minimum  wage  living  standard  technological  Career  Politicians  book  Redaktionsschluss  Labour  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  NHS  Professional  London  Productivity  Services  Journalism  Journalismus 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
Mario Draghi in der Kritik: "Die Geldpolitik macht den Kapitalismus kaputt" - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Danach kamen die Übertreibungen am US-Immobilienmarkt, im Süden der Eurozone und auf den Rohstoffmärkten. Wir haben es mit einer Kette wandernder Blasen zu tun, die von der Geldpolitik getrieben werden. Die neue Blase bildet sich nie dort, wo zuvor die alte geplatzt ist. Die Regierungen reagieren auf einen Crash mit schärferen Regeln, aber die Spekulation ist ihnen immer einen Schritt voraus.
GFC  recovery  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  USA  UK  Europe  European  Union  PIGS  secular  stagnation  household  debt  consumer  car  loan  student  credit  card  private  Austerity  IMF  OECD  Dodd-Frank  self-regulation  Regulation  regulators  FSA  BaFin  speculation  speculative  ROI  productivity  output  gap  inflation  targeting  monetary  policy  fiscal  Schuldenbremse  Pact  inequality  capital  assets  gini  Coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  10%  Plutocracy  Oligarchy  bank  bailout  zombie  NPL 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
UK inflation: now it's the pound in your pocket being devalued | Business | The Guardian
According to the National Institute for Economic & Social Research inflation is heading towards 4% as the effect of Brexit uncertainty keeps the pound low and imports expensive. [...] The government has pledged to double down on austerity from April, with cuts to tax credits and other benefits as well as the savings made over the last five years.

Such a sharp spike in prices will strain household finances, especially when wages growth is expected to remain at around 2.5%.

Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders said last week that developments in the labour market such as zero-hour contracts and agency working meant wages were unlikely to take off any time soon. [...] [ rise in unsecured credit 2008 levels, and personal bankruptcies not easier (online) to do and 2016 personal bankruptcies were up ~16% ]
UK  Brexit  living  standard  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  growth  GDP  recovery  GFC  inflation  £  British  Pound  Precariat  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  technological  unemployment  Productivity  output  gap  part-time  zero  hour  contract  Contractor  Self-Employment  gig  economy  1099  economic  history  Austerity  tax  credit  consumer  debt  household  Card  BOE  bankruptcies  bankruptcy  underinvestment 
january 2017 by asterisk2a
The Dark Side of Globalization: Why Seattle's 1999 Protesters Were Right - The Atlantic
mix between technology and globalisation, WTO etc // https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/822930363827757056 - The Dark Side of Globalization

The clearest example is competition from foreign workers, which really has slammed the American working class. Economists David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson did very careful empirical work and found that competition from China lowered wages and increased unemployment for American workers who were in competition with Chinese imports. Economists Michael Elsby, Bart Hobijn, and Aysegul Sahin found that competition from developing countries—not the decline of unions or the rise of automation—has been responsible for the bulk of the recent decline in labor’s share of income in the United States.
globalisation  globalization  WTO  technological  unemployment  Productivity  China  manual  labour  automation  structural  underemployed  economic  history  AI 
january 2017 by asterisk2a
Oh for the 1960s! People earned less but could afford more | Money | The Guardian
[ fetish of GDP ] Economic growth since the 1960s has been real, but the link between growth and personal prosperity has broken down, probably since the 1990s. We can carry on pushing for increases in GDP, but it’s meaningless unless it translates into a recovery in living standards. If any government really wants to help the left-behinds, then cutting house prices and rents must be their first priority.
GDP  wage  growth  income  distribution  economic  history  profit  maximisation  capitalism  crony  oligopoly  monopoly  Platform  Self-Employment  Productivity  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  globalisation  Competition  liberal  reform  competitiveness  disposable  discretionary  spending  investment  creditcard  credit  GFC  recovery  Austerity  secular  stagnation  taxation  1%  Super  Rich  Plutocracy  10%  20%  bank  bailout  Privatisation  outsourcing  offshore  banking  tax  evasion  avoidance  child 
december 2016 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth on the Brexit vote - YouTube
the start of Trumpism. Every country has a version of it. 80% of the bottom got a shit deal (trickle down) for the last 30 years. &! https://youtu.be/czE7dkSSFB0 - Economic Anger Of Working Class &! ppl left out of the econ growth prosperity, not participated. Osborne saying econ grows. But that has nothing to do w working ppl in xyz who seen living standard deteriorate further. ..&! https://youtu.be/waXfqPt_ip8
Trumpism  Brexit  UKIP  Centrists  Donald  Trump  AfD  Front  National  Italy  Germany  France  UK  USA  economic  history  gini  Coefficient  tax  avoidance  evasion  income  inequality  growth  working  poor  Elite  Plutocracy  SNP  indyref  indyref2  Nationalism  austerity  wage  Productivity  technocrat  Greece  PIGS  democracy  1%  10%  20%  lobby  revolving  door  output  gap  skills  Mark  Blyth  crony  capitalism  neoliberal  neoliberalism  insecurity 
october 2016 by asterisk2a
Keiser Report: Mom joins in (E981) - YouTube
extraction of profits. no accountability. share buyback // post-gfc fighting slowdown of velocity and m3 reduction w monetary policy QE // look post prexit 2017 - velocity of £, hgousehold debt, credit card debt, car loan,
underinvestment  profit  maximisation  recovery  GFC  technological  unemployment  structural  underemployed  Productivity  output  gap  globalisation  globalization  Brexit  CETA  TTIP  TTP  NAFTA  WallStreet  share  buyback  neoliberal  neoliberalism  crony  capitalism  UK  USA  European  Union  austerity  economic  history  plutocracy  1%  10%  20%  oligarchy  oligopol  oligopoly  deflation  deflationary  monetary  policy  reflate  QE  Super  Rich 
october 2016 by asterisk2a
Are we heading for another slump? - Michael Roberts, John Bellamy Foster and Joseph Choonara - YouTube
Michael Roberts book // lack of profit, due to lack of growth (outlook), thus lack of investment. ... less competition. +++ winner take all/globalisation/conglomerate +++ erosion of purchasing power +++ no to little wage (income) growth, if at all due to credit card, car load, mortgage, student loan, ... === less demand. === deflation pressures // less profits = more profit maximisation = lay-offs and destruction of union, bogus contracts via forced self-employment (thus saving on social security payments). = and outsourcing in next cheaper country.
ouput  gap  productivity  secular  stagnation  UK  USA  underemployed  underinvestment  recovery  austerity  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  economic  history  capitalism  in  crony  GFC  Sovereign  debt  wage  growth  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  neoliberal  neoliberalism  deflation  deflationary  monetary  policy  fiscal 
september 2016 by asterisk2a
Keiser Report: Gold & World’s Debt Problems (Summer Solutions series E940) - YouTube
deflationary trap/liquidity trap - orthodox monetary policy w austerity = stagnation. & west is exporting deflation. // if it is good for consumers ... break up banks. // hedging is BS ... you double the system you double the risk. [...] banks are now bigger! ... ban most derivatives, and reintroduce glass stegall // Black-Schoeles - there is no such think as risk free rate and no such thing as the past reflect the future. risk is not equally distributed. [...] VAR is flawed. //
deflation  deflationary  NIRP  currency  war  currency  debasement  ZIRP  QE  Helicopter  Money  secular  stagnation  western  world  Abenomics  BOE  BOJ  Fed  ECB  economic  history  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  debt  overhang  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  debt  household  debt  mortgage  mortgage  market  mortgage  rates  distortion  hunt  for  yield  credit  boom  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  reflate  reflation  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  income  disparity  working  poor  Precariat  Brexit  GFC  too  big  to  jail  productive  investment  underinvestment  austerity  history  productivity  gap  financial  instruments  investment  banking  global  economy  globalisation  globalization  derivatives  output  gap  productivity  recovery  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Chicago  School  neoclassical  economics  deregulation  Wall  Street  speculative  bubble  property  bubble  Beton  Gold  Betongold  stagnation  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  fail  TBTF  complexity  systemic  risk  systemrelevant  systemicrisk  systemrelevanz  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  non-performing  loan  leverage  hedge  Glass-Steagall  Black-Scholes  Equation 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
A hard truth for Leave voters: Brexit means big government
Britain has seen a renaissance in jobs since 2013, of that there is no doubt. But most of those extra jobs were among the self-employed or fell into categories that can only be described as insecure and low-paid. When companies finally took the plunge and advertised full-time jobs from 2014 onwards, around a third went to migrants. [...] It is this mostly older group of workers across the developed world, worried about their pay, pensions and conditions of employment, that want to slam the brakes on globalisation and reject the remedy proposed by big business: greater labour-market flexibility and only limited job protections. [ Globalisation as a great rebalancing of the world economy between the west and the rest (BRIC and co) ] [...] Only government can provide the cure, with a commitment to invest where the private sector cannot or will not go.
globalisation  globalization  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  job  security  job  insecurity  self-employment  neoliberal  neoliberalism  liberal  economic  reform  Agenda  2010  Zero  Hour  Contract  OECD  BRIC  USA  UK  Germany  France  economic  history  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  protectionism  Brexit  exploitation  crony  capitalism  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  immigration  migration  Philip  Hammond  austerity  Workers  Union  Workers  Rights  Trade  Union  Theresa  May  Conservative  Party  nasty  Tories  budget  deficit  neoclassical  economics  Chicago  School  deflation  deflationary  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  Richard  Koo  free  free  agreement  underinvestment  business  confidence  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  output  output  gap  technological  unemployment  skills  economy  skills  gap  skill  gap  industrial  policy  Manufacturing 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
U.K. Faces Short Recession as Brexit Hammers Spending, EY Says - Bloomberg
The U.K. will fall into a “short, shallow recession” around the turn of the year as Brexit hits house prices, jobs and spending [...] it’s slashing its 2017 growth estimate to 0.4% from 2.6% & predicting the BOE will cut interest rates to zero by the end of 2016. Tax reductions are also a possibility [...] as the government scales back austerity to aid an economy reeling from the shock vote to pull Britain out of the [EU]. “We would expect a permanent reduction in the level of U.K. output and productivity.” Business investment will drop 2% next year and the jobless rate will reach 7.1 percent by 2019
GBP  Brexit  British  Pound  recession  ZIRP  QE  austerity  Theresa  May  Philip  Hammond  productivity  productivity  gap  output  output  gap  GDP  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  unemployment  economic  forecast  economic  history  budget  deficit 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Behind the Bond-Stock Divide Is a Big and Risky Bet on Central Banks - WSJ
The idea is that if stocks are rising, bond yields should be climbing too. Here's how to reconcile it. The answer is central banks. If rates are going to stay lower for longer; if more rounds of quantitative easing are coming; if new ways of easing are coming -- the rates should be going down and stocks moving higher. [...] It's about dividends paying more than bonds. 90% of the bond market universe is near 2% or lower. //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-12/germany-about-sell-zero-coupon-10-year-bonds-first-time-ever //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-13/we-just-found-out-who-has-been-buying-all-these-record-low-yielding-bonds - When your nation's bonds are trading with a record low 28bps negative yield (10Y JGBs), everything else in the world (aside from Swiss 10Y) is a relative 'value'...
bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  central  banks  BIS  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  PBOC  secular  stagnation  wage  growth  output  gap  productivity  gap  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  inequality  Gini  coefficient  western  world  rising  middleclass  Asia  BRIC  income  distribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  crony  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  capitalism  neoliberal  neoliberalism  globalisation  global  economy  globalization  free  trade  dividends  underinvestment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  student  debt  consumer  debt  car  loan  property  bubble  speculative  bubble  speculative  bubbles  distortion  asset  allocation  austerity  AI  Robotics  automation  augmented  intelligence  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  skills  shortage  economic  history  Brexit  technological  history  underemployed  underemployment  part-time  deflation  deflationary  JGB 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Geographies of Austerity: Mark Blyth
EU bank bailout (incl Britain) = 40% of EU GDP (incl Britain) = 5 trillion Euros. AUSTERITY FOR WHOM?! // secular stagnation - ZIRP, NIRP, QE, austerity, liquidity trap, aggregate demand short-fall = creditors paradise. their debt will not be inflated away. deflation - deflationary environment. for the next 2-3 decades. = NO DRIVE TO INVEST IN PRODUCTIVE ASSETS! = productivity gap. [...] rentier paradise. [...] = interest formation (those who have, call the shots, status quo). [...] deflationary spiral (PIGS & Germany) exporting deflation ... getting more competitive [EU has 2015 a current account surplus, bought my USA] = Dr Wolfgang Schaeuble. [...] Fall of Centrists, rise of the SNP & UKIP (reactionary) ... Trump. [...] as investment rate (ie SME/SMB lending) stays same, does not grow = DEAD. Eurobonds/Investment Fund(UK, 5bn 5 years). [...] min 55 - deflationary politics (policy for 1-10-20% of society) is one way train. DEATH. especially w austerity and low wages/secular stagnation.
austerity  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  general  election  2010  general  election  2015  George  Osborne  Iain  Duncan  Smith  David  Cameron  Ed  Miliband  economic  history  Mark  Blyth  book  Richard  Koo  welfare  state  welfare  reform  bank  bailout  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  IMF  ChristineLagarde  Salami  Tactics  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  Confidence  Fairy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Tony  Blair  Gordon  Brown  European  Union  Euro  ECB  BOJ  PIGS  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  politician  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  banking  systemic  risk  OMT  LTRO  MarioDraghi  trichet  BOE  deflation  deflationary  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  rentier  rent-seeking  Mark  Carney  Donald  Trump  business  consumer  TLTRO  non-performing  loan  NPL  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
'Northern powerhouse' depends on productivity not rail links: thinktank | Business | The Guardian
In this post-referendum vacuum, Carney alone can't save the UK economy - Getting productivity going again will require more investment in innovation and our universities. It means more help for businesses that want to update their production lines, overhaul their IT systems or retrain their staff. Productivity will only improve if the UK addresses its skills shortages with sensible immigration policies and with better training. In an age of economic insecurity, training is key if the march of the robots is not to further exacerbate inequality. Similarly, the UK must get serious about moving to an apprenticeship system that has parity of esteem. - http://bit.ly/29cCmtq
Northern  Powerhouse  Brexit  apprenticeship  apprenticeships  UK  recovery  productivity  productivity  gap  output  gap  economic  history  Manufacturing  household  debt  consumer  debt  student  debt  City  of  London  George  Osborne  Policy  underinvestment  STEM  skills  gap  skills  economy  skills  shortage  structural  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  working  poor  Service  Sector  Jobs  Precariat  Gini  coefficient  inequality  poverty  child  poverty  austerity  infrastructure  investment  London  economies  of  agglomeration  competitiveness  comparative  advantage  competition  competitive  competitive  advantage  global  economy  globalisation  globalization  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  GFC  Steel  Crisis  Steel  Industry  energy  price  University  Germany  education  education  bubble  AI  automation  Robotics  Robots  autonomous  car  self-driving  cars  autonomous  cars  augmented  intelligence 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Alan Greenspan on Brexit, U.S. Economy, and Inflation (Full Interview) - YouTube
UK out of Euro Currency but part of free trade single market was best option on table. // lack of leadership for political union and fiscal union aka ever closer union. not just currency and trade union (free trade). // GET AT THE ROOT ISSUE; productivity, ageing population (entitlement crisis), stagnant wages, secular stagnation = desperate population // European banks some still burdened by sov debt crisis/NPL (= zombie banks) & NIRP & QE & lack of uptake in business & consumer loans. // no back-up to the ECB (balance sheet) yet. what happens if the EURO stops being a hard currency? get Greece out, is a liability. // EU can not go on in Status Quo indefinitely. ie funding southern states. States have to get on course of economic harmony! everyone has to give up something! // Precariat/Squeezed Middle Class/Social Mobility = creates desperate people. // Entitlements are a legal issues. Productivity and Growth Rates can't fund entitlements. = There will be a crisis. // Career Politicians won't touch it. // History (look at M2) this environment ends up in inflation. not time or data.
European  Union  Brexit  fiscal  Political  Union  ECB  Alan  Greenspan  Fed  Yanis  Varoufakis  Janet  Yellen  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  secular  stagnation  productivity  gap  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  ageing  population  current  account  deficit  budget  deficit  GFC  entitlement  spending  Abenomics  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  pension  obligation  babyboomers  Baby  Boomers  immigration  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  Germany  Angela  Merkel  BOE  Mark  Carney  rising  middleclass  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  populism  demagogue  demagogy  Donald  Trump  western  world  savings  rate  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  triple-lock  pension  pension  fund  pension  scheme  democracy  Career  Politicians  politician  output  gap  M2  inflation  targeting  M3  commodity  prices  global  economy 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
Waiters And Bartenders Rise To Record, As Manufacturing Workers Drop Most Since 2009
On the surface, the March jobs reported was better than expected... except for manufacturing workers. As shown in the chart below, in the past month, a disturbing 29,000 manufacturing jobs were lost. This was the single biggest monthly drop in the series going back to December 2009. But not all is lost: as has been the case for virtually every month during the "recovery", virtually every laid off manufacturing worker could find a job as a waiter: in March, the workers in the "Food services and drinking places" category, aka waiters, bartenders and minimum wage line cooks, rose again to a new record high of 11,307,000 workers, an increase of 25K in the month, offsetting virtually all lost manufacturing jobs. This is how the two job series have looked since the start of 2015: 24k manufacturing jobs have been lost in the past 14 months compared to an increas of 365K food service workers.
UK  USA  job  creation  Manufacturing  industrial  policy  competitiveness  competitive  Service  Sector  Jobs  minimum  wage  low  pay  low  income  productivity  productivity  gap  recovery  economic  history  budget  deficit  income  tax  receipts  IRS  HMRC  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  precarious  work  Precariat  squeezed  middle  class  job  loss  job  security  job  insecurity  working  poor  Contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  Budget2016  George  Osborne  STEM  skills  gap  apprenticeships  2015  2016  China  BRIC  global  economy  global  trade  globalisation  globalization  outsourcing  self-employment  tax  free  income  tax  credit  social  safety  net  welfare  state  output  gap  participation  rate  babyboomers  western  world  secular  stagnation  Support  income  growth  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  debt  Generation  Rent  Generationengerechtigkeit  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  tax  amnesty  crony  capitalism  shareholder  capitalism  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  multiplier-effect  austerity 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Public Investment Payoff Not Necessarily About Efficiency
electrification of public rail - reduce emissions and improve public health (health hazard of diesel train engines proven - for passengers and residents). also improve public health - people ditching their cars! // 8:40 each additional public capital investment might be less valuable after the first road to the sea port. but that does not factor in types and public health and safety. road vs train. diesel train vs electric train. slow train vs faster electric magnetic safe low maintenance train w auto pilot (augmented intelligence). less public health risks, less health hazard, more public safety = less economic damage through a less sicker population (health care cost, health care demand, less work hours lost, higher productivity - healthy, happy people) but micro and macro economists do not put this into their GDP - well being, happiness, public health. // beijings hazardous hair will prove to be hughe economic cost (public health) down the road (chronic pulmonary conditions and cancer = lower productivity, lower discretionary spending because of spending goes to medicine and medical care and down the road leads to old age poverty for some if not the family).
underinvestment  public  investment  austerity  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  rentier  rent-seeking  commute  commuter  commuting  well  being  public  health  UK  Fossil  fuel  industry  fuel  public  health  policy  Richard  Koo  economic  history  recovery  dogma  ideology  free  market  neoliberal  neoliberalism  microeconomic  policy  added  value  USA  investment  spending  R&D  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  George  Osborne  output  gap  public  capital  ROI 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016: Four key numbers - BBC Newsnight
weaker outlook for income tax receipts & economy/global economy >> OBR has done 'no projections' on impact of Brexit: Robert Chote - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/A0jvIUKTU1U //&! Budget 2016: Evan Davis grills Sajid Javid on the numbers - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/L0TBTbfNgCw - "WE HAD THE BIGGEST BANK BAILOUT" //&! NICKY MORGAN ON TORY WELFARE ROW - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/IC_Yhggk62o
Budget2016  OBR  secular  stagnation  income  tax  receipts  productivity  gap  recovery  economic  history  Richard  Koo  Brexit  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  general  election  2020  austerity  underinvestment  business  confidence  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  working  poor  tax  credit  Zero  Hour  Contract  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  self-employment  part-time  Contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  recovery  economic  history  UK  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  pension  obligation  triple-lock  pension  bank  bailout  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  Richard  Koo  Privatisation  free  market  demographic  bubble  poverty  child  poverty  food  poverty  ESA  Disabled  vulnerable  DLA  PIP  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  sanctions  JSA  social  housing  affordable  housing  Crisis  property  bubble  welfare  state  welfare  reform  Universal  housing  benefit  social  safety  net 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016 shows Osborne's failure on debt, surplus, GDP
// higher in-work poverty
budget2015  budget2016  budget2010  general  election  2010  general  election  2015  PR  spin  doctor  economic  history  Positioning  Richard  Koo  austerity  underinvestment  dogma  ideology  policy  folly  policy  error  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  nasty  party  Iain  Duncan  Smith  corporate  tax  rate  corporate  welfare  corporate  subsidies  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Google  Inc.  shareholder  capitalism  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  Tories  Conservative  secular  stagnation  aggregate  demand  babyboomers  ageing  population  Northern  Powerhouse  triple-lock  pension  pension  obligation  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  Generation  Rent  property  bubble  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  precarious  work  tax  credit  wage  stagnation  productivity  output  gap  Gini  coefficient  income  tax  receipts  tax  code  Zero  Hour  Contract  part-time  underemployment  underemployed  low  pay  low  income  BOE  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  election  campaign  promises  car  loan  student  debt  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  child  poverty  Food  poverty  tax  credit  Privatisation  Council  Public  Services  Social  Services  bed  blocking  education  policy  skills  gap  Academy  underinvestment  NHS 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016: the productivity and prosperity puzzle
It wasn't so much "here's a rabbit from the hat" but more: "look over there - a squirrel!" [...] [Productivity] turned out disappointingly again. And that's knocked back the growth estimates for the economy, as well as for pay, for tax revenue, and for company profits over the rest of the decade.
Britain's not alone in that. But keeping company with the USA on such numbers is not that reassuring. [...] And as that is the main, long-term driver of real pay, it means Britain's standard of living will improve from the recession, but at only two thirds of the rate we've come to expect. [ Recovery ] average year saw only 0.1% per year.
budget2016  OBR  forecast  secular  stagnation  austerity  George  Osborne  Brexit  general  election  2020  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  Positioning  constituency  Funding  Toff  Career  Politicians  Establishment  Privileged  PIP  tax  code  HMRC  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  industrial  policy  productivity  gap  productivity  output  gap  income  tax  receipts  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  tax  credit  low  income  working  tax  credit  low  pay  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  self-employment  part-time  Contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  recovery  economic  history  UK 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Nationalstaat vs. Nationalismus - Oskar Lafontaine 01.03.2016 - Bananenrepublik - YouTube
wir muessen die wirtschaftsordnung aendern. ... Greed leads to War. //&! (TAKEN FOR GRANTED LIKE RELIGION - PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWTH! - Volker Pispers Kapitalismus Erklärung | Aktuellste HD Aufzeichnung 2016 - youtu.be/u07XONlDwX8 //&! Georg Schramm: Wir leben in einem großen Krieg! | 3sat 14.02.2016 - youtu.be/YcrkJrxwKiQ
Nationalism  democracy  Brussels  Lohndumping  Sozialstaat  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  neoliberalism  neoliberal  free  market  borderless  social  democracy  Minijob  Zeitarbeit  crony  capitalism  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  No  Representation  European  Union  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  Leiharbeit  GFC  trickle-down  economics  Greed  economic  history  history  Gini  coefficient  Productivity 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Keiser Report: Sovietization of capitalism (E723) - YouTube
BIS 100% of private debt and finance sector larger than 3.9% of economy bad ... and siphoning off talent from more productive fields of work. And finance favours lending to property and land (low productivity). [...] financial products (derivatives) do not help economy. is just a financial product, fee collection. rentier! rent-seeking behaviour! fees fees fees. (JP Morgan, 89% of profits, see interview) [...] QE reflated asset prices/share prices! // In the second half, Max interviews David Graeber about his new book, The Utopia of Rules: On Technology, Stupidity and the Secret Joys of Bureaucracy.
private  debt  consumer  debt  household  debt  BIS  Wall  Street  recovery  zombie  banks  car  loan  credit  card  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  student  debt  economic  history  GFC  secular  stagnation  UK  City  of  London  USA  investment  banking  retail  banking  BOE  Fed  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  property  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  productivity  output  gap  austerity  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  constituency  Party  Funding  vested  interest  interest  groups  mortgage  market  Housing  Crisis  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  subsidies  subsidizing  derivatives  financial  product  rent-seeking  rentier  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  reflate  reflation  Mark  Carney  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  book  David  Graeber  MervynKing 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
David Graeber on a Fair Future Economy - YouTube
13:30 - BOE paper, austerity claims are bogus. the confidence fairy et al //&! The truth is out: money is just an IOU, and the banks are rolling in it David Graeber. The Bank of England's dose of honesty throws the theoretical basis for austerity out the window - bit.ly/1fWKC0s - What this means is that the real limit on the amount of money in circulation is not how much the central bank is willing to lend, but how much government, firms, and ordinary citizens, are willing to borrow. Government spending is the main driver in all this (and the paper does admit, if you read it carefully, that the central bank does fund the government after all). So there's no question of public spending "crowding out" private investment. It's exactly the opposite.
austerity  BOE  David  Graeber  George  Osborne  economic  history  Schuldenbremse  IMF  OECD  G20  recovery  aggregate  demand  IOU  Mark  Carney  underinvestment  productivity  output  gap  job  creation  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  system  Fiscal  Pact  Wolfgang  Schäuble  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  policy  book  Richard  Koo  secular  stagnation 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Central bankers on the defensive as weird policy becomes even weirder | Business | The Guardian
Growth is tepid, productivity is poor, and inflation is too low: all is not going according to policymakers’ masterplans [...] As far as the OECD is concerned, monetary policy is being forced to take too much of the strain. Its chief economist Catherine Mann made the point that lasting recovery required three things: stimulative monetary policy; activist fiscal policy; and structural reform. The OECD wants the second of these ingredients to be added to the recipe in the form of increased spending on public infrastructure, something it says would more than pay for itself at a time when governments can borrow so cheaply.
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: Ökonomen halten Ende des Wachstums für unvermeidlich - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Weltwirtschaft: Ökonomen halten Ende des Wachstums für unvermeidlich [...] Ein Beispiel: Wenn das Bruttosozialprodukt eines Landes 10 Milliarden Euro beträgt und um eine Milliarde Euro wächst, dann entspricht das einer Steigerung von zehn Prozent. Wenn das BIP aber 1000 Milliarden Euro beträgt, dann müsste die Wirtschaft schon um 100 Milliarden Euro wachsen, um ein Wachstum von zehn Prozent zu schaffen. Wächst das BIP wie vorher um eine Milliarde Euro, entspricht das nur noch einer Steigerung von 0,1 Prozent. Die Wirtschaft wäre dann sozusagen ausgewachsen. Die alten Zeiten kehren nicht mehr zurück [...] Sollten die Ökonomen recht haben, hätte das für Staat und Sozialsysteme einschneidende Folgen: Die Planung von Bundeshaushalt oder Rentenkasse geht von einem Wachstum irgendwo zwischen ein und zwei Prozent pro Jahr aus. [...] Die Wirtschaft "unabhängiger vom Wachstum gestalten"
G20  George  Osborne  UK  austerity  Europe  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  Germany  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  budget  deficit  economic  history  finite  resources  resource  depletion  economic  growth  global  economy  policy  monetary  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  Japan  Abenomics  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  AI  artificial  intelligence  Robotics  self-driving  cars  autonomous  car  structural  unemployment  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  productivity  output  gap  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  low  pay  low  income  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  underinvestment  marginal  cost  competitiveness  energy  policy  energy  price  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  economics  of  abundance  post-capitalism  Larry  Summers  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  democracy  social  democracy  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  free  market  self-regulation  neoliberalism  neoliberal  education  policy  income  inequality  GDP  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  liquidity  trap  credit  bubble  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  USA 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
George Osborne warns of further spending cuts in Budget - BBC News
[ LOL! ] But recent figures showing the UK economy was smaller than expected meant savings must be found in his Budget statement on 17 March, he said. [...] Mr Osborne said he would rather look for extra cuts now than risk breaking his own manifesto commitment to achieve a surplus in the budget by the end of this Parliament. The chancellor did not completely rule out raising taxes in the event of a further slowdown in growth, but said that now was not the time for "significant" tax hikes. [...] I'm absolutely clear we've got to root our country in the principle that we live within our means and that we have economic security." [...] "whole purpose of our economic plan was to have a budget surplus. [...] we got big challenges at home to make the economy more productive even as more people get work. [ because having part of your budget in the property bubble is so productive ] [...] I will do what is required to keep our country safe and secure." [ NOT CHANGING PLANS ie U-TURN ]
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february 2016 by asterisk2a
Tasting menu: Audio highlights from the February 20th 2016 edition by The Economist
"liberal centrist politicians are not up to the job" always claiming the confidence fairy will show up if they stop what they are doing! "faith in monetary policy is wavering" ... emerging market debt bubble (through hunt for yield, QE, ZIRP, NIRP, credit bubble originating from China) is unwinding and threatening global system stability.
aggregate  demand  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  China  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  Taper  QT  Fed  distortion  hot-money  austerity  Richard  Koo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  George  Osborne  secular  stagnation  western  world  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  Mark  Carney  BOE  property  bubble  policy  monetary  policy  economic  history  Gini  coefficient  inequality  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  underinvestment  productivity  output  gap  lost  decade  lost  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  fairness  recovery  unintended  consequences 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Five issues that will shape the Northern Powerhouse - BBC News
[ white elephant! lol & the double standard of Google paying 2% tax vs small businesses full 18%+ and not getting investment, R&D loans ] Will Hull thrive or suffer if transport is radically improved to the eastern fringe of the Powerhouse? There's no way of telling. Some people think investment in skills, education and training would be a more certain way of improving productivity - and business leaders are keen to ensure that these key elements are not forgotten in the rush for steel and tarmac. I asked former CBI director-general John Cridland, who is now head of Transport for the North, if there was any certainty that spending billions on infrastructure would improve productivity. He agreed there was no proof, but urged people to take a leap of faith - like the Victorian engineers.
STEM  skills  gap  practical  skills  apprenticeships  underinvestment  productive  investment  Northern  Powerhouse  UK  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  productivity  output  gap  recovery  carbon  tax  renewable  energy  competitiveness  competitive  industrial  policy  Germany  corporate  tax  rate  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  conglomerate  multinational  HMRC  budget  deficit  dogma  ideology  austerity  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  added  value  value  creation  economic  history  property  bubble  distortion  HS2  Hinkley  Point  C  HS3  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  macroeconomic  policy  macroprudential  policy  zombie  banks  BOE  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Mark  Carney 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What Really Caused the Crisis and What to Do About It - YouTube
"There are not perfect markets, and there is no perfect planner. [...] we will never arrive at perfect solutions. [...] market will never allocate perfectly ... [...] market will always tend to lend to property and land, and less into productive means (businesses = risk of 100 loss, land or property ... you have a loss when you sell it. << China, UK ) [...] not all credit is good credit. [...] need for macroprudential policy to dampen bubbles bc rate hikes could dampen normal non-speculative area of economy. ie loan to value limits [...] interest rate setting is blunt hammer that people though is the magic wand along the line of self-regulation, free market, neoliberalism and trickle-down [...] GFC can be traced back to the 60-70's - macroecon + micro with absurd assumptions (ie rational expectations, equilibriums, no bubbles) & math & pure theoretical base (no empirical analysis ie of what banks really do ie greed) = makes job of economist as policy advisor real easy.
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february 2016 by asterisk2a
Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What's holding back the world economy? | Business | The Guardian
[ continued financialisation of economy / faustian pact ] QE and low interest rates have disproportionately created wealth in the financial sector and inflated asset bubbles. It has done little for the real economy. The rules of the market need to be rewritten [...] dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse. In the US, quantitative easing did not boost consumption and investment partly because most of the additional liquidity returned to central banks’ coffers in the form of excess reserves. [...] private investment did not grow [...] [ QE supported only financial sector and zombie banks and corporations, little to nothing went into the real economy for investment in western world ] [ which leads us to say we are still in a banking crisis per se ]
Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  austerity  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  Student  Bubble  loan  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  wage  stagnation  income  growth  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  mortgage  market  NPL  debt  servitude  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  inequality  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  asset  equity  VIX  volatility  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  aggregate  demand  income  redistribution  repo  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  financial  market  GFC  banking  crisis  retail  banking  investment  banking  hot-money  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  BRIC  rent-seeking  rentier  carbon  tax  economic  damage 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
UK trade deficit widens further as exports suffer | Business | The Guardian
Nevertheless, the UK’s goods trade gap with the rest of the world widened by £1.9bn to a record high of £125bn in 2015. Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: “UK exports have clearly struggled in recent months, as they have been hampered by sterling’s overall strength in 2015, particularly against the euro, and moderate global demand. [...] Recent declines in the value of sterling are expected to support exports sales, though the deteriorating global situation could mitigate against an improved exchange rate. [...] “Nonetheless, any progress in reducing the trade deficit is likely to be extremely slow in the near term, leaving the recovery reliant on domestic demand.” [...] [ you can lower your corp tax, but if your country is shitty in business environment ie infrastructure and employee qualifications and immigration ... nobody wants to do business ]
UK  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  budget  deficit  tax  reciepts  2015  2016  recovery  secular  stagnation  underinvestment  business  investment  austerity  economic  history  global  economy  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  foreign  direct  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  Student  Bubble  debt  servitude  discretionary  spending  government  spending  disposable  income  generation  rent  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BOE  property  Housing  Crisis  George  Osborne  competitiveness  productivity  output  gap  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  corporate  tax  rate  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  immigration  migration  Super  Cycle 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
As growth falters, Osborne hopes Mark Carney can keep a lid on interest rates | Business | The Guardian
The chancellor faces lower GDP and lower tax receipts as a result. So it’s vital that consumers’ desire to keep spending isn’t hit by a nasty shock from the Bank [ // Confidence Fairy // ] The Bank of England has downgraded its forecasts for the UK’s GDP growth and the outlook for wages, most likely robbing the exchequer of vital income tax receipts. And without the funds to maintain pensions and health service spending, his critics will gleefully play back the speech from last November during which he declared that Britain was on the road to becoming “the most prosperous and secure of all the major nations of the world”. [...] Yet his words ring hollow when so many of the post-crash problems are still with us, from the burden of high private and public debts to Europe’s rapidly ageing population, which encourage saving over investment, and a reluctance from government and big business to boost capital spending.
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february 2016 by asterisk2a
Masters in Business: Nobel-Prize Economist Paul Krugman (Audio) by Bloomberg View
// most times conviction is lacking, trapped in the bubble, no non-conformity, too much of a comfortable life. // 28:30! Confidence Fairy >> austerity from 2010! vested interest plays big role! Policy Makers are on the side of credit, on bond holders. bond holders don't like inflationary period! ... Hyperinflation will come any day! // 31:00 econ needs to be reformulated in class rooms to be much broader subject! << see robert shiller interview! ie behaviour, sociology and psychology, irrational behaviour // 44:15 on keynes! was no left wing socialist, he tried to save capitalism! he had world changing analysis! sometimes there can not be enough demand, same with sometimes it is good to have waste vs nothing, pointless ways to spend money can have a positive effect. ie infrastructure investment - repaving roads = less private repair bills! public transportation = less drunk driving accidents. history shows fiscal stimulus gets always too early withdrawn from deficit hawks!
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february 2016 by asterisk2a
Christine Lagarde: Housing is key issue for security of UK economy - BBC News
The UK's recent growth, employment progress and deficit reduction have been "strong", the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said. Underlying economic vulnerabilities, including the supply and demand for housing, have been addressed and steady growth looks set to continue, it said. The IMF's Christine Lagarde said there were still some risks.
UK  Housing  Crisis  property  bubble  generation  rent  speculative  bubbles  Buy  to  macroprudential  policy  fiscal  policy  planning  law  monetary  policy  mortgage  market  austerity  budget  deficit  neoliberalism  IMF  OECD  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  economic  history  ChristineLagarde  Privatisation  affordable  social  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  minimum  wage  low  income  Zero  Hour  Contract  part-time  Contractor  recovery  productivity  output  gap  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Amid market turmoil and confusion, there are four key economic trends shaping society
The UK economy currently gets nowhere near its target of 2%. Inflation would decrease the value of current debts, making them less of a burden. In a world without much inflation, it is hard to get wages up. The worse case scenario is that debt costs increase, as prices and wages stagnate. [ ignoring debt and income growth - stagnation at their peril - youtu.be/KIaXVntqlUE - gov is no household budget, Steve Keen + Richard Koo ] [...] And in this age of austerity, these factors will work against governments seeking to reduce the welfare bill. Recent data shows that, in UK cities, growing numbers of low paid jobs have led to rising claims for welfare such as housing benefits, defeating the government’s aims to reduce spending.
economic  history  secular  stagnation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  inflation  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  minimum  wage  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  tax  credit  housing  benefit  working  tax  credit  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  western  world  GDP  wage  inflation  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  inequality  income  inequality  income  redistribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  monetary  system  monetary  theory  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  banks  monetary  velocity  Niall  Ferguson  NPL  junk  bond  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  China  credit  BRIC  output  gap  productivity  industrial  policy  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  property  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  money  supply  faultlines  global  imbalances  recovery  working  poor  Precariat 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Fred Block: The Tenacity of the Free Market Ideology - YouTube
Fred Block discusses his book “The Power of Market Fundamentalism,” which extends the work of the great political economist Karl Polanyi to explain why free market dogma recovered from disrepute after the Great Depression and World War II to become the dominant economic ideology of our time. // wo state role there would be no market system. // need social democracy in complex diverse society - representing people // freedom in complex diverse society = free of hunger and economic uncertain & freedom of nonconformity - protections, no marginalisation, no economic punishment // social democracy and free market are both Utopias // Thatcher & Co blaming State for malaise! nobody likes technocratic arguments, leaves public out, thus was able to make big return. // wealth creation through efficiency route takes more work and capital than predation (rentier/rent seeking) - ie relaxing fuel efficiency savings regulation for Detroit back in the days // trust that state can support innovation
economic  history  freemarkets  free  market  neoliberalism  self-regulation  neoliberal  book  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  Chicago  School  USA  UK  social  democracy  capitalism  dogma  ideology  austerity  trickle-down  economics  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  Greed  boom  and  bust  crony  capitalism  plutocracy  oligarchy  Super  Rich  1%  democracy  revolving  door  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  mobility  American  Dream  meritocracy  meritocratic  Alain  de  Botton  philanthropy  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  Wall  Street  Gini  coefficient  income  mobility  education  policy  welfare  state  social  safety  net  Supply  and  Demand  market  economy  Demand  and  Supply  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  GFC  Great  Moderation  Great  Depression  Utopia  Ronald  Reagan  Margaret  Thatcher  rentier  rent-seeking  predation  financial  product  wealth  creation  R&D  STEM  productive  investment  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  competitive  competitiveness  M&A 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
James Galbraith, Kate Pickett, Branko Milanovic - Consequences of Inequality and Wealth Distribution - YouTube
free education / land value tax / higher inheritance tax / abolition of private education / more progressive taxation / combat tax avoidance and tax evasion / ... Universal Basic Income //&! New Theoretical Perspectives on the Distribution of Income and Wealth Among Individuals - youtu.be/RO8KWTb2iPM - w Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman --- distinguishing between wealth and capital. ignore land (free yourself from Ricardo). land. credit. //&! David Cay Johnston: The Perils Of Our Growing Inequality - David Cay Johnston about his new book, Divided: The Perils of Our Growing Inequality. - youtu.be/ok7ZJ8mS19Y
inequality  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  education  policy  income  distribution  income  redistribution  tax  free  income  income  mobility  social  mobility  health  inequality  gender  inequality  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  welfare  state  social  safety  net  progressive  tax  code  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  social  democracy  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  democracy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Universal  Basic  inheritance  tax  financial  literacy  wealth  distribution  wealth-distribution  transferring-wealth  Thomas  Piketty  Joseph  Stiglitz  Robert  Reich  squeezed  middle  class  globalization  globalisation  Paul  Krugman  Elizabeth  Warren  austerity  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  fiscal  policy  economic  growth  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  credit  bubble  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  household  debt  Student  Loan  debt  debt  credit  card  debt  credit  card  economic  history  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  competitiveness  productivity  knowledge  worker  book  monopoly  oligopoly  oligopol  American  Dream  meritocracy  meritocratic  post-racial  America  free  market  freemarkets  dogma  ideology 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
HMRC asked tax avoider to sign pledge not to engage in practice again | Politics | The Guardian
HMRC asked tax avoider to sign pledge not to engage in practice again Department says letter was sent as part of series of measures to discourage wider issue of tax avoidance and was not a legally binding document. [...] [ out of the lions mouth ] "one man’s aggressive avoidance is another man’s sensible planning" [...] [ but benefit "scroungers" go to jail. one tax cheat has yet to go to jail // google "daily mail benefits cheat jailed" vs daily mail tax cheat jailed // tax cheats fleece state because they use infrastructure and services for free, have thought about that? but can't jail you because you create jobs, and thus have a meaning to capitalistic society. benefit claimants, the sick, the vulnerable, the disabled have no place in a capitalistic society and thus in Osborne's budget considerations nor for the NHS which is in his eyes (actions speak louder than words, no investment to better society ... where is the Big Society item?) only a cost item. ] [write ur own rules $]
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november 2015 by asterisk2a
Global Capitalism: September 2015 Monthly Update - YouTube
Private Education (Charter Schools) that get public money, without the public being involved in decision-making how to spend that public money ... were outlawed/illegal, by Seattle Judges 6-2. //&! Tax exception of universities. Yale (4th richest uni of USA with 20bn in endowments) is being subsidized by people of the 7th poorest state. no property tax (largest land owner & employer in New Haven (Connecticut)). Public Services (Fire, Police, Hospitals) & Infrastructure. //&! min 41 Greg Mankiw: carbon tax would discriminate (burden too much) the middle class & poor with no wage growth last 30 yrs in disposable income vs corporates, well off, Super Rich, 1%. Rebuttal: tax more progressively those who can afford it. The crux of a carbon tax & tobin tax, setting it nationally, corporate lobby that it "will" be anti-competitive. Destroy Jobs. // 47:35 Science & Money. 1:09:20 Hegemony 1:22:20 public transport, US dogma; THE CAR! Committed 2 Private Free Enterprise. << Ideology. LA traffic
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october 2015 by asterisk2a
Perhaps austerity didn't choke off UK recovery - BBC News
But, as I mentioned, the disclosure that we were a bit richer in the last parliament than we thought is not all fabulous news for the chancellor. He and his Treasury colleagues should probably be anxious that the faster growth did not translate into higher tax revenues. In case you need reminding, George Osborne singularly failed to hit the deficit reduction targets he set himself. But the explanation can no longer be that the economy flatlined, because that's not what happened. So if the higher-than-thought growth in the last parliament left the gap between government revenues and expenditures tens of billions of pounds greater than George Osborne hoped, it also suggests that his aspiration of eliminating the deficit in this parliament may prove equally elusive. //&! Despite strong employment growth, wage growth remained historically weak - the usual link between falling unemployment and rising wages seemed to have been broken. - bbc.in/1OEffcS
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october 2015 by asterisk2a
The new right to buy is solving 1979’s problems at today’s expense | Gaby Hinsliff | Comment is free | The Guardian
This Thatcherite policy revival fails to recognise that the main cause of the housing crisis is affordability //&! Housing bill needs radical, long-term measures to reform the market. As well as increasing supply, the government needs to use the tax system to make buy-to-let less attractive as an investment - bit.ly/1PDxWe3
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England may cut rates, says chief economist - BBC News
Softening employment figures and weakening surveys on manufacturing and construction output suggested growth in the UK could slow in the second half of the year and inflation might not pick up as expected. Furthermore, problems in emerging markets could be a drag on UK growth and the headwinds from those economies were unlikely to abate any time soon, Mr Haldane added. //&! In a wide-ranging speech that called on central bankers to think more radically to fend off the next downturn – including the notion of abolishing cash – Haldane warned the UK was not ready for higher borrowing costs. He described recent events in Greece and China as "the latest leg of what might be called a three-part crisis trilogy."
China  sovereign  debt  crisis  European  Union  BRIC  credit  bubble  2015  headwinds  Fed  mandate  BOE  bond  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  QT  British  Pound  Sterling  Dollar  petrodollar  FX  reserves  excess  reserves  liquidity  trap  GFC  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  Pact  Schuldenbremse  George  Osborne  budget2015  David  Cameron  industrial  policy  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Research  competitiveness  competitive  differentiate  differentiation  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  business  confidence  business  investment  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  Niall  Ferguson  secular  stagnation  western  world  deflationary  deflation  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  education  policy  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  tax  code  corporate  tax  rate  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  monetary  monetary  debt  unconve 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Fed has to deal with its own zombie apocalypse
"However, there are pockets of greater weakness like these zombie companies. These pockets are likely to see some more turbulence than overall conditions. Some companies definitely will go out of business." It isn't just the zombies, though, that should worry about higher rates. Corporate America overall has been piling on the debt, which grew 8.3 percent in the second quarter, according to figures the Fed released Friday. [...] Michael Contopoulos, high-yield strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said the high-yield space is a mess no matter what the Fed does. Global economic weakness and deteriorating fundamentals are making it increasingly harder for the Fed to underwrite junk debt through a zero funds rate. [...] Earnings for junk companies have been "incredibly weak," [...] "leverage is at all-time highs" while "defaults and downgrades are creeping into the market." [...] the issues with high-yield could be more secular in nature.
zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Junk  Bond  Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  USA  Richard  Koo  interest  payments  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unconventional  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  distortion  unknown  unkown  complexity  QT  2015  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  credit  ratings  secular  stagnation  western  world  refinancing  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  corporate  debt  leverage  margin  trading  reflate  reflation  productivity  UK  Europe  output  gap  competitive  competition  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  New  Normal  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Brazil's downgrade | Authers' Note - YouTube
- 6 killer apps not yet properly installed. - // and still dependent on western world demand! aggregate demand via western consumer. // credit bubble and ZIRP/NIRP/QE has run its way largely // private sector could not pick up recovery. no appetite. same for SME SMB mittelstand. excess reserves not lend out because the horse has to drink by itself, can't make the drink. // especially when it has no means to served future credit interest payment coupons and principal repayment with no income growth! for decades. // inequality huts, middle class destoryed. - Career Politicans, Fear, polarisation, inequality, gini coefficient, zeit arbeit, leiharbeit, self-employment, working conditions, ...sozialer abstieg, squeezed middle class, ... insecurity, cloudy future, richard koo: austerity isn't helping!
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why did Japan stop growing? Professor Takeo Hoshi at ANU - YouTube
Blyth argued its culture/society & structural. TPP trade deal might help productivity growth & opening Japan further 2 global trade. & encourage immigration reform. Regulatory reform; stop protection of zombies (gov guarantees, contracts, subsidies), corporate governance. Oversight. Transparency. Also Start-up rate (bottom-up disruption) needs reform (reduce red tape, create start-up/business hubs) // &! What is Abenomics? - youtu.be/_UafzhHzmwE //&! Noriko Hama & Yukio Noguchi "Abenomics and What comes After" - youtu.be/a29FTJXYev0 'unable to share affluence' - income redistribution << marginal propensity to consume, 16% left out of society (poverty), lack of empathy & compassion. BOJ is single lender 2 gov. Career Politicians! Companies have no need 2 borrow/cant force banks 2 lend. //&! min52 Problem of rising long-term interest rates solved w BOJ debt monetisation = inflation (probable near future scenario). &! youtu.be/ArnLHTE0e1g &! youtu.be/wYtJ7Fyn9NA &! youtu.be/AbKeTeb-I_M
Japan  economic  history  lost  decade  lost  generation  ageing  population  demographic  bubble  culture  society  fiscal  stimulus  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  banking  crisis  Exportweltmeister  Germany  subsidies  subsidizing  distortion  asset  bubble  Abenomics  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  fiscal  policy  white  elephants  Richard  Koo  productivity  corporate  culture  corporate  governance  deflationary  deflation  crowding  out  Debt  Super  Cycle  BOJ  Yen  public  investment  productive  investment  stagnation  secular  stagnation  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  disinflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Makers  Career  Politicians  savings  rate  savings  glut  policy  error  marginal  propensity  to  consume  poverty  trap  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  working  poor  precarious  work  inequality  Gini  coefficient  industrial  policy  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  disposable  income  income  distribution  low  income  neoliberalism  neoliberal  part-time  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  underemployed  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomic  policy  JGB  bond  bubble  monetisation  monetization  structural  imbalance  faultlines  Impediments  excess  reserves 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Apple Gets Hardcore About Its Hobbies | TechCrunch
[from version 1 to 2, 3, 4 ] The iPad wasn’t versatile enough for business. The iPhone camera wasn’t sharp enough for photographers. And none of Apple’s products were fast enough for die hard gamers. Until today. [ more and more extension of you, part of you, you, ... unthinkable to live without it ... remote control for your life, that thing where your life happens now, partially on the screen/inside. away from the gadget factors which still had friction. now less and less friction. ]
Apple  iPad  iPhone  iOS  technological  progress  Apple  Watch  technological  history  Technology  mobile  homescreen  Escapeism  productivity  Entertainment  utility  society  Steve  Jobs  Gesellschaft  Wearable  computing  friction  frictionless  quantified  self  digital  economy  digital  self 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Labour leadership races can change fast; interest rates, not so much | Business | The Guardian
The fact of the matter is that, while George Osborne is obsessed with shrinking the size of the public sector and causing hardship and misery, the real crisis in this country concerns not the size of the budget deficit, but the record peacetime balance-of-payments deficit of a whopping 6% of GDP. With this in mind, John Llewellyn and Russell Jones of Llewellyn Consulting have been urging the Bank to encourage the overvalued pound to fall towards more realistic levels, to avoid an almighty sterling crisis when the markets finally wake up to the real crisis in the British economy.
balance  of  payments  2015  budget2015  austerity  output  gap  productivity  household  debt  public  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  UK  George  Osborne  short-term  Mark  Carney  BOE  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  bond  bubble  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  industrial  policy  STEM  Research  Manufacturing  energy  policy  energy  price  renewable  energy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Tories  Conservative  Party  Toff  Establishment  Privileged  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  reflate  reflation  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  underinvestment  productive  investment  public  investment  business  investment  business  confidence  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  competitive  competition  competitiveness  globalization  globalisation  global  trade  added  value  value  creation  corporate  tax  rate  capital  gains  tax  inequality  Gini  coefficient  poverty  trap  child  poverty  social  mobility  income  mobility  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  pound 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
▶ How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
credit great 4 productive investments 4 the future that will benefit u/me/gov/biz like infrastructure/edu/skills. but waste 4 pure consumption that dont increase productivity in the long run. Like consumer credit spend 2 replace a 2yr old flat screen. vs consumer credit 4 vocational/professional further edu 2 get a higher earning job (future higher income 2 repay the then debt liability & have some more/left over). Bad if u dont have later higher earnings from higher education 2 repay debt & just work in an underemployed placement that any college dropout could do. Thing is, college dropout doesnt have that debt liability that the higher education person has (reduced disposable income bc debt repayment + interest payments.) Women are hit double (gender pay gap) & triple (childcare long-term earnings loss). // min16 income growth important 2 keep up with debt repayment beyond interest. if not, we reached peak long-term debt cycle! // doesnt include globalisation's deflationary effects
credit  bubble  austerity  business  cycle  debt  cycle  financial  cycle  Super  economic  cycle  productivity  income  growth  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  output  gap  economics  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  economic  history  living  standard  standard  of  living  gender  pay  gap  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  China  USA  2015  speculative  bubbles  secular  stagnation  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  household  debt  government  debt  public  debt  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  GFC  recovery  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  NPL  excess  reserves  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  debt  restructuring  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  debt  jubilee  greatrecession  Great  Depression  budget  deficit  Super  Rich  Polarisation  Thomas  Piketty  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  fairness  inequality  Gini  coefficient  social  cohesion  social  tension  social  contract  Career  Politicians  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  Robert  Reich  Mark  Blyth  income  redistribution  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  capital  gains  tax  tax  code  corporate  tax  rate  lost  decade  lost  generation  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalization  globalisation  western  world  developed  world  Europe  competitiveness  competition  competitive  flat  world 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Vince Cable: ‘Historically, the coalition will be seen as a success’ – interview | Politics | The Guardian
[A] look at the post-crash global economy, is the first fruit of that freedom. After toeing the line for five years, he can go public with his criticisms of chancellor George Osborne’s handling of the economy. He warns that the emphasis on consumption rather than investment, the continuing reliance on house price inflation as the driver of growth, the decline in productivity and innovation mean fundamental problems are not being addressed. He is also the first minister to lift the lid on the coalition: we learn the Tories could be likable colleagues but “collectively appalling, with ugly tribal prejudices”; that Osborne and David Cameron were unable “to move Theresa May an inch”; that Osborne’s Treasury effectively controlled government, with a hands-off Cameron; and that, in Cable’s view, Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander were too accepting of the Treasury line. [...] [ Cameron the PR man, being in office for the sake of just being in Office ] &! bit.ly/1KROBLk
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Thom Hartmann "The Crash of 2016" - YouTube
7:10 American Dream not abt being Super Rich, part of 1%, self-made millionaire. American Dream is abt live a good life, meaningful work. Launch children into world. Edu. Vacation. & Left over 4 retirement. having a voice; Workers Union. Health Care. Some little savings. Retirement Fund. // Wages did not keep up with productivity gains, if they had, minimum wage would be about $22! - bit.ly/1NZLVwc // 1trn$ in student loans/debt! that is what post-war gen had in assets! // (neoliberalism and neoconservative) Think Tanks; like Kato Institute, produce papers that are pushed to media 'getting our message across' (control media), also control over our justice system, & control over our education (our story, ie X Prof and read Ayan Rand). // Middle Class once invested in college & university. Was seen as intellectual class, society pillar. Till the last 32 years. // cites Fourth Turning book! // re-peat of 1929, = GFC // &! youtu.be/nUWaXZWhnqA &! youtu.be/polYrI4Us84
American  Dream  inequality  democracy  meritocracy  meritocratic  USA  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  education  policy  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  globalization  globalisation  Robert  Reich  productivity  output  gap  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  outsourcing  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  part-time  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  skill-biased  technological  change  technological  progress  Robert  Skidelsky  Joseph  Stiglitz  wage  growth  crony  capitalism  Super  Rich  1%  lost  generation  lost  decade  GFC  recovery  western  world  developed  world  dot.com  reflate  reflation  credit  bubble  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  austerity  bank  bailout  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  standard  of  living  student  loan  babyboomers  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  zombie  consumer  status  anxiety  trickle-down  economics  economic  history  labour  market  labour  economics  job  creation  job  security  job  market  capital  gains  tax  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  Gesellschaft  Lügenpresse  election  campaign  promises  manufactured  consent  world  wage  change 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History - YouTube
ideology/Career Politicians/Complacency/Cushy/non-ambitious/AIIB/comfortable //&! bit.ly/1cU2RVS March 2015, SELL & come back in 6 months - bloom.bg/1NTykGB //&! bit.ly/1NJvXai &! bit.ly/1VsYTEJ Outrageous predictions for 2015 were: China devalues yuan 20% [joining others in global struggle to import inflation] &! Corporate high yield market spreads double (higher refinancing cost, which zombie corporations do actually have no pants on as tide goes out) "High yield is a derivative of equity markets. If you believe equities are overvalued, so too is high yield," &! UK house prices crash (foreign hot money, speculative + shortage + Summer 2015 Crash + BOE Taper in 2015/16 = back to reality!) &! Russia defaults again // &! Fed Taper is a "margin call," [need 2 normalize despite its mandate/fundamentals not warranting a hike!] [...] a seven-year bull run 4 equities might be coming to an end [...] the rise (not value) of RMB/Yuan as it becomes free floating out of need] - cnb.cx/1MMyLSC
Abenomics  Yen  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  currency-war  fiat  currency  currency  debasement  currency  war  deflationary  deflation  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  credit  cycle  business  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  investment  public  investment  personal  investment  infrastructure  investment  rebalancing  structural  imbalance  Impediments  infrastructure  Career  Politicians  short-term  Fortune  500  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Wall  Street  ROI  STEM  Research  R&D  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  output  gap  productivity  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Robotics  3D  printing  Steen  Jakobsen  financial  incentive  secular  stagnation  Manufacturing  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  AIIB  Asia  European  Union  share  buyback  2015  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  developed  liquidity  trap  UK  USA  Europe  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  bank  bailout  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  ideology  dogma  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! bit.ly/1fQ2lcq // &! bloom.bg/1Euf6peh // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea - YouTube
faith in capitalism can only be sustained, according to Adam Smith, if we can better ourself (vs winner takes all) & talent diversion into Finance, not Climate Change, STEM, education, sw, hw & rogoff/reinhart called 4 fiscal stimulus in 2014. &! its a banking problem, not overspend, its corporate state (Tories) PR and spin doctors, manufacturing consent, propaganda/populism! change conversation away from banks! // youtu.be/a-8ySh6nUsA // &! The Austerity Delusion - youtu.be/NQGCoiakycQ // &! Is Austerity a Dangerous Idea? - youtu.be/2v8m-J8sgik // &! youtu.be/JQuHSQXxsjM // &! Mackenzie Lecture 2015 - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs // &! After the Financial Crisis: How to Tell the Forest from the Trees - youtu.be/V3FPmu2_J_0 // &! Book Panel 2013 - youtu.be/Xz4FW8GDwG4 - "debt gets cured by growth." & austerity is ideological war on welfare state & class // &! youtu.be/iM2cnMhJZyg // &! youtu.be/in5M65566iw // &! What I Learned and (Un-Learned) at the Financial Crisis - youtu.be/lhldDOp77QA /
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
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