asterisk2a + output-gap   30

Franchise redux: The professionalization of the sharing economy has deep implications | PandoDaily
But for all Airbnb and Uber’s much deserved “disruptive” acclaim, these businesses have older roots than the hype cycle suggests. According to conventional wisdom, Airbnb and Uber enable “regular individuals” to make a few extra bucks renting out an extra bedroom or giving fellow travelers a ride. They unlock a new class of assets, where fellow consumers share in collaborative consumption. In fact, while these businesses nailed rapidly changing consumer preferences  –  buying services at time of usage, rather than owning assets fits the post-recession, Millennial sensibility of the moment –  the supply side of their businesses does not match the narrative. Supply in these marketplaces is increasingly delivered by entrepreneurial, small business owners, not fellow consumers. Uber and Airbnb are best understood as reimagined franchise operations that leverage mobile data, the social graph, and continuous feedback loops to deliver a better consumer experience.
Airbnb  Millennials  GFC  post-recession  2014  Consumerism  consumerist  zombie  consumer  sharing  is  caring  sharing  economy  marketplace  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  inefficiencies  Technology  convenience  disrupting  markets  disruption  franchise  business  Platform  Open  Platform  franchising  redux  service  delivery  mobile  first  digital  natives  adoption  adoption  curve  trends  youthification  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unknowns  self-regulation  regulation  deregulation  vested  interest  interest  groups  operating  performance  Start-Up  Start-Ups  Lean  Start-Up  Silicon  Valley  entrepreneurial  entrepreneurship  feedback  loop  transparency  Models  Social  Media  recovery  productivity  output-gap  underemployed  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  Debt  Super  Cycle  USA  UK  Europe  consumer 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Chris Cook crunches the numbers - Newsnight - YouTube
what if current productivity numbers are - as good as it gets. and the productivity high from 2006-7-8 was hugely inflated by london, super rich, banking and financial services industry!? thus what if we are running currently at full speed possible although it looks (in comparison to 06/07/08 slower) so slow. thus ... austerity needs to go on for much longer to eliminate budget deficit and possibility of inflation and wage inflation spiral is nearer to the horizon than what the BOE (with its ZIRP and QE policy) has it scheduled to arrive and thus then forced to hike rates earlier than though and debt servicing will be more expensive ... for gov and debt holder and mortgage holders.
UK  budget2014  budget  budget  deficit  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  recovery  2014  economic  history  academia  academics  output-gap  output  gap  Productivity  unemployment  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  imbalance  faultlines  BOE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  QE  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  mortgage  market  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble 
march 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Worrying trends for the UK economy
In other words, the record amount of private debt, which has just reached £1.43 trillion, points to how borrowing has fuelled consumption. As we saw from the crash five years ago when debt was lower than now, debt-fuelled consumption isn't a sustainable or reliable source of growth. [...] Could the UK be facing what the US economist Larry Summers has described as America's "secular stagnation". It's a worry that the ageing population and a slower growth of the labour force mean a slower growing economy.
GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  UK  2013  economic  history  recovery  austerity  deflationary  deflation  inflation  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  output-gap  productivity  larrysummers  stagflation  stagnation  secular  cycle  Japan  lostdecade  lostgeneration  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  spare  capacity 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
This short-term thinking will lead to huge long-term damage - MoneyWeekMoneyWeek
Global acting Companies - steered by Wall Street and EPS (earnings per shares) - are not incentivised to invest into the future of the company, but to keep Wall Street happy till the next quarter and thus keeping their job.
stakeholder  unemployment  lostgeneration  complexity  incentive  short-term  thinking  shareholder  Great  Moderation  output-gap  unintended  consequences  investment  corporate  investment  ZIRP  EPS  WallStreet  zombie  corporations  financial  incentive  lostdecade  share  buyback  corporate  governance 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
What The ECB's "Unprecedented" Forward Guidance Means | Zero Hedge
Europe struck in credit crisis - liquidity trap. & other problems - Politics / Brussels - one to mention. >> "The move clearly marks an innovative step in the ECB's communication and policy strategy for a bank that previously had always refused to pre-commit on interest rates." >> Problem is - ECB will have it hard to maneuver out of the measures, end schemes, etc. "Monetary Policy is no Panacea." Ben Bernanke. + >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-04/diminishing-effects-qe-programs
unemployment  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  M3  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  imbalance  political  error  creditcrunch  forward  guidance  trustagent  austerity  Taper  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Politics  PIIGSFB  GFC  MarioDraghi  output-gap  European  Commission  Euro  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  OMT  NIRP  communication  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  escape  velocity  ZIRP  PIIGS  Germany 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Mark Carney wastes no time in stamping his authority - Telegraph
Osborne fiscal plan of austerity till 2015/16 Rates don't go up beyond 2015 If market rates go up and make it more expensive for gov to borrow during tough times - will do QE - artificially lower the price again. >>> "Carney’s “not warranted” comment was tantamount to saying he expects rates to remain at 0.5pc until at least 2015. The vogue for “communication” is catching. In Australia, the central bank governor, Glenn Stevens, demonstrated how not to do it, after a “joke” backfired earlier this week, crashing the currency until his deputy calmed things down. [...] At the European Central Bank, president Mario Draghi was more successful. In a break with protocol, he said rates would be at current or lower levels “for an extended period of time”, delighting stock markets on the continent as they interpreted it to mean 2016 at the earliest."
currency  debasement  unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  MarioDraghi  output-gap  foreignexchange  BOE  ECB  benbernanke  greatrecession  QE  NIRP  2013  Fed  communication  PIGS  UK  debt  monetisation  sovereign  debt  crisis  youth  unemployment  forward  guidance  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  ZIRP  participation  rate  Taper  PIIGS  greatdepression  deleveraging  RBA  GeorgeOsborne  debt  monetization  centralbanks  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2013/speech670.pdf
UK’s King Last Speech: UK needs more Bank of England stimulus as recovery is not assured. >> UK's future still uncertain. Reflective in Cable (GBPUSD). While others do much better. >> "Despite this encouraging picture, growth is not yet strong enough to reduce the considerable margin of spare capacity in the economy. Nor is recovery at an adequate rate fully assured. The weakness of the euro area and the problems of the UK banking system continue to act as a drag on growth. So the need to support the recovery remains. [...] unemployment remains unnecessarily high. [...] Both nominal and real interest rates are at unsustainably low levels. There is an understandable yearning for a return to normality [...] Monetary policy cannot provide the answer. [... Banking > ...] It is insufficient capital that restricts lending [+ holding not enough liquid assets]. And, without a resilient banking system, it will be difficult to sustain a recovery."
unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  reflation  zombie  banks  capital  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  Discount  Window  Facility  policy  folly  Recapitalisation  liquidity  QE  price  stability  inflation  targeting  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  devaluation  political  error  imbalance  creditcrunch  Recapitalization  trustagent  hunt  for  yield  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  global  imbalances  inflation  debt  monetization  governance  balance  sheet  recession  Leverage  GFC  complexity  output-gap  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  too  big  to  jail  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  policy  error  debtoverhang  Special  Scheme  NIRP  trust  economic  history  confidence  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  MervynKing  toobigtofail  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Economic policy: Paved with good intentions | The Economist
Although the debate [austerity] relates to the UK, I think it has a much wider resonance. And indeed, to a student of history, it has fascinating parallels; economic policy-making was rethought in the mid-1970s, but the same debates are popping up again. [...] Margaret Thatcher on ZIRP & QE "Let us print the money instead. Because what that is saying is let us quietly steal a cerain amount from every pound saved in building societies, in national savings, from every person who has been thrifty." [...] [ZIRP & QE is no free lunch - it has consequences, known and unknown, unintended.]
infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  Margaret  Thatcher  Mark  Carney  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  deflation  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  QE  intellectual  fiscal  policy  free  lunch  UK  PIGS  debt  monetisation  Martin  Wolf  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  economic-thought  deleveraging  economics  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  liberal  economic  reform  IMF  GFC  output-gap  unintended  consequences  margaretthatcher  Troika  davidcameron  greatrecession  debtoverhang  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetarism  ZIRP  demand-curve  PIIGS  fiscal  theory  supply-demand  MervynKing  GeorgeOsborne 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
The Chart Making The Fed Nervous | Zero Hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-19/fed-governor-stein-warns-when-tbtf-bank-fails-depositors-will-be-cyprused "all too clear that part of the Dodd-Frank resolution authority guidelines, a bailout is no longer an option." Cyprus was the first, and will not be the last incident of bail-in solution for TBTF >> this whole this is a replay of Japan 90s and 2000s
monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  BOE  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  Cyprus  deposit  levy  policy  folly  QE  SIFI  PIGS  UK  Error  bail-in  trustagent  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  inflation  expectation  deleveraging  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  monetary  theory  output-gap  haircut  derivatives  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  Insured  Bank  Deposits  political  folly  crisis  greatrecession  lostdecade  debtoverhang  FDIC  LTRO  OMT  Fed  trust  economic  history  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  toobigtofail  POMO  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The Human Disaster of Unemployment - NYTimes.com
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/hassett-baker-roundtable-on-budget-accord-0uzMgUn8TQ~iTz1LlBayOg.html

The physical and psychological consequences of unemployment are significant enough to affect family members. The economists Kerwin Charles and Melvin Stephens recently found an 18 percent increase in the probability of divorce following a husband’s job loss and 13 percent after a wife’s. Unemployment of parents also has a negative impact on achievement of their children. In the long run, children whose fathers lose a job when they are kids have reduced earnings as adults — about 9 percent lower annually than children whose fathers do not experience unemployment.

We all understand how the human costs can be so high. For many people, their very identity is their occupation. Few events rival the emotional strain of job loss.
psychology  social  science  culture  society  economic  history  output-gap  underemployed  long-term  sovereign  debt  crisis  2013  2012  greatrecession  GFC  human  tragedy  unemployment 
january 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Underemployment affects 10.5% of UK workforce
One in 10 of all workers in the UK is now officially underemployed, according to a study from the Office For National Statistics (ONS).

It says 3.05 million workers want to work more hours each week, out of a total workforce of 29.41 million.

The number of workers in this position has shot up by 980,000 in the four years since the start of the economic recession in 2008.

Most of the underemployment is concentrated among part-time workers.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20526259

> Our economy is now around 3% smaller than it was before the start of recession, in the first quarter of 2008. What has puzzled so many people - for so long - is that the number of people in work is now almost exactly what it was then. We are just producing less stuff.
economic  history  economic  model  economics  output-gap  greatrecession  GFC  underemployed  2012  UK  employment  unemployment 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
QE∞ - YouTube
Ben Bernanke has boldly gone where no Fed chairman has gone before him. In his third round of quantitative he's set the controls for the heart of infinity until unemployment is substantially reduced.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/70285dd4-faf7-11e1-b775-00144feabdc0.html

- QE3 = QE∞ = buying unlimited MBS to the tune of 40bn per month
- Operation Twist to continue
- ZIRP to stay till 2014 at least
- dropping inflation target, focusing on how to get unemployment down and increasing participation list (real unemployment is much higher bc so many dropped out)

how to get unemployment down? increase demand, but consumer and households are underwater (prioritizing debt servicing, and paying down mortgage). -> buy up MBS, reduce overall supply, thus increasing demand for secure debt (banks, basel3 anybody?), Ben hopes some will borrow again to consume and start finally the new credit cycle. = Reflation.
property  bubble  balance  sheet  recession  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  USA  financial  repression  reflation  ZIRP  operationtwist  freddiemac  FannieMea  MBS  structural  imbalance  greatrecession  GFC  2012  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  output-gap  employment  unemployment  benbernake  Fed  QE3 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Rosenberg Sees U.S. Growth Potential Near 2%-2.5%: Video - Bloomberg
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., talks about the outlook for financial markets, the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy. Rosenberg, speaking with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance," also discusses Deutsche Bank AG and the banking industry (Source: Bloomberg)

-
Even with credit growth resuming, GDP output will be less than in the past.

Structural imbalance, impairment.

Talking about Equity Monologue all have (Bloomberg, WSJ, FT).

Lack of domestic demand, due to still existing problems that partially caused GFC.

Businesses lack confidence to start new projects. New projects, new technologies, new industries (ie renewable energy, infrastructure, recycling industry?).
Long-term goals needed - to instil certainty. The spark is missing. That moment in time, realisation, inspiration.
Fix fiscal policy.
Political courage, shared sacrifice.
No fairy tales.
lostgeneration  fiscal  policy  election2012  Politics  confidence  uncertainty  economics  supply-demand  WallStreet  debtoverhang  structural  imbalance  balance  sheet  recession  lostdecade  greatrecession  GFC  2012  USA  output-gap 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
The Trade Off To Record Corporate Profits: Your Miserable Salary | ZeroHedge
13 quarters in and Labor Comepnsation is still lower than where it was when the Great Financial Crisis began.

Because corporations now have all the leverage.

---

With so many want work, corps have the heft in hand to pay less.
Oversupply on workers vs Demand Shortfall.

Reason is, because of structural flaws (ie property holder unwilling to move - thus accepting lower wages to get new or other job or even keep same job), global economy ...

Full employment is a distant dream considering all circumstances.
debt  bubble  deleveraging  debtoverhang  economic  history  economics  2012  USA  recovery  supply-demand  greatrecession  GFC  unemployment  output-gap 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Potential growth: Forever poorer? | The Economist
R.A. from the Free Exchange ... REALLY?

What we'd expect to see given a prolonged, large output gap is precisely what we have seen—wage growth that is virtually flat and inflation that remains fairly dormant even during bursts of rapid output growth. It is possible that there has been some secular erosion in potential or some permanent hit from the recession. The most parsimonious (frugal) explanation for the figures we have is that the economy is suffering from a large demand shortfall that has been inadequately treated by the central bank.

Monetary Policy is no panacea. * Bernanke

Period. More than ZIRP, clear guidance and QE (addictive) can't be done @ monetary side.

I argue that what halts back America are the emotional and psychological scars from the GFC and Great Recession, structural imbalances, misguided policy (gov subsidies, earmarks) and the effects of globalization.
greatrecession  GFC  inflation  unemployment  2012  monetary  policy  economic-thought  output-gap  America 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Explaining America's macro puzzles: The worst of all worlds | The Economist
[Americas economy] it is starting to look more like some left arms have gone missing.

What if we have next to the out-put gap also a slowdown in potential growth - that has to be factored in, due to forces of Globalization.

The path of potential output commonly downshifts after crises, as all economic participants are humans and have emotions and psychological, economic behavior - these (very likely change) due to recent trauma. Resulting in risk aversion.

Leading to the following conclusion; "I still find the demand-side explanations for the depressed state of the economy more convincing ..."
microeconomics  macroeconomics  economic-thought  psychology  Behavior  behavioral  finance  output-gap  globalisation  globalization  productivity  unemployment  greatrecession  GFC  2012  economy  economics  USA 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Britain's economy: Into the storm | The Economist
Britain’s economy has its own home-grown problems, to which the misery on its doorstep will add. Spending power is scarce. Wage growth is running at less than half the level of inflation. Public-sector workers, who staged a large strike over the government’s pension reforms this week (see article), face a further two years of squeezed pay. Householders will be reluctant to dip deeper into their savings while their own debts are so high. That leaves Britain’s economy dependent on foreign demand. As two-fifths of exports are shipped to the euro zone, recession there will drag down Britain’s economy as well. Jobs are already being cut in London’s financial district, one of Britain’s more reliable export industries, because fees and commissions have dried up.

budget deficit was at 11.2% of GDP in 2009-10
The deficit will fall to 8.4% of GDP this fiscal year.
Britain’s triple-A credit rating seems assured
plans announced imply public-spending cuts will last until 2017
UK  2011  2012  economy  austerity  recession  lostdecade  budget  deficit  creditrating  GeorgeOsborne  OBR  output-gap  slack 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Will Latest Market, Credit Woes Add Up to a 'Global Recession'? - YouTube
- downgrade in confidence, stat gov is not able to prop up economy if needed- downgrade in confidence, after gov debt ceiling debate ended with austerity shaped bill (compromise)- downgrade in confidence, after Obama could not show leadership in debate and give boundaries
- government, and other institutions (Fed, SEC, Banks, Individual) failed
- growth panic
- no leadership on both sides of the Atlantic
- slow growth below long-term average guaranteed in developed markets whose bubbles burst 
- wrong medicine currently administered 
- currently, QE, monetization does not lead into healthier moneysupply in UK, USA, EU. bc of debt overhang and deleveraging process - which will still take years.
KennethRogoff  GFC  paulkrugman  2011  greatrecession  barackobama  presidency  monetary  fiscal  policy  politics  mistake  folly  sovereign  debt  ceiling  debtceiling  crisis  August  PIIGS  Fed  ECB  economy  recovery  GDP  growth  QE  QE3  debtoverhang  inflation  deflation  deleveraging  Japan  lostdecade  history  lesson  liquidity-trap  greatdepression  austerity  unemployment  output-gap  moneysupply  monetization  BOE  UK  europe  USA 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Fat Lady Wanted as Guide to Fed Rate Setters: Caroline Baum - Bloomberg
The Fed has econometric models that predict growth and inflation (they’re silent on asset bubbles). It relies on something called the output gap, or the difference between actual gross domestic product (hard to compute) and potential GDP (a moving target), to warn of inflation on the horizon. It monitors headline and core inflation (lagging indicators). It pays a lot of attention to inflation expectations as reflected in the spread between yields on nominal Treasuries and those indexed to inflation. And it keeps a close eye on wages, which are the biggest input cost for service-producing industries.
output-gap  2011  2010  unemployment  USA  Fed  econometrics  inflation  outlook  forecast 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Nancy Folbre: Borderless Economy, Jobless Prosperity - NYTimes.com
Jobless growth is only one symptom of increased social conflict, intensified economic inequality and weakened democracy. The prosperity in jobless prosperity exists only for the rich.
economics  economy  jobs  growth  usa  recovery  2010  2011  globalisation  jobless  unemployment  output-gap  inequality 
january 2011 by asterisk2a
Bernanke on Deficits: In Long Run, We’re All on Social Security, Medicare - Real Time Economics - WSJ
The economist John Maynard Keynes said that in the long run, we are all dead. If he were around today he might say that, in the long run, we are all on Social Security and Medicare. That brings me to two interrelated economic challenges our nation faces: meeting the economic needs of an aging population and regaining fiscal sustainability. The U.S. population will change significantly in coming decades with the combined effect of the decline in fertility rates following the baby boom and increasing longevity. As our population ages, the ratio of working-age Americans to older Americans will fall, which could hold back the longrun prospects for living standards in our country. The aging of the population also will have a major impact on the federal budget, most dramatically on the Social Security and Medicare programs, particularly if the cost of health care continues to rise at its historical rate. Thus, we must begin now to prepare for this coming demographic transition.
benbernanke  Fed  deficit  bubble  budget  demographics  usa  babyboomers  medicare  socialsecurity  2010  fiscal  policy  HerbStein  outlook  aging  population  Fertility  living  standards  taxation  output-gap  interestrate  stagnation 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
PIMCO Is Long CAD, AUD And CNY; Short EUR, GBP And JPY, And Other Disclosures By Paul McCulley | zero hedge
Q: What structural headwinds stand in the way of recovery in the U.S.?
McCulley: We believe the U.S. is in the second stage of a three-stage recovery. The economy was first propped up by policy response – low interest rates and fiscal stimulus. Currently, we are moving from the dark to the sunny side of the inventory cycle. The final stage – job creation, private income creation and self-sustaining demand growth – has yet to materialize, due to headwinds of deleveraging and de-risking.

We like to use the analogy of the three-stage-rocket; we are waiting for the thrust from that third rocket. There’s a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the hand-off from stimulus and inventories to job creation, and that is reflected in the Federal Reserve’s continued exceptionally low interest rate policy.
We believe the severe austerity measures brought on by the fiscal problems in the periphery countries, such as Greece and Spain, will lead to a chronic shortfall of Euroland-wide aggregate demand
recovery  usa  2010  inventory  greatrecession  QE  MBS  treasuries  Fed  monetary  policy  greece  spain  bailout  ECB  demand  economics  richardkoo  deflation  inflation  output-gap  china  currency  yuan  dollar  politics  timgeithner 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
When will the Fed raise interest rates? | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
The primary distinction is that recent estimated reaction functions emphasise the fact that the Fed responds strongly to output growth, while the traditional Taylor rule is expressed in terms of the output gap – the deviation of real GDP from potential GDP. This often unnoticed distinction matters significantly for the timing of interest rate decisions because the output gap evolves slowly while the growth rate of GDP changes much more rapidly.
exitstrategy  fed  interestrate  ZIRP  rates  interest  bubble  monetray  taylor-rule  paulkrugman  output-gap  GDP  growth  USA 
march 2010 by asterisk2a

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