asterisk2a + monetization   154

What Really Caused the Crisis and What to Do About It - YouTube
"There are not perfect markets, and there is no perfect planner. [...] we will never arrive at perfect solutions. [...] market will never allocate perfectly ... [...] market will always tend to lend to property and land, and less into productive means (businesses = risk of 100 loss, land or property ... you have a loss when you sell it. << China, UK ) [...] not all credit is good credit. [...] need for macroprudential policy to dampen bubbles bc rate hikes could dampen normal non-speculative area of economy. ie loan to value limits [...] interest rate setting is blunt hammer that people though is the magic wand along the line of self-regulation, free market, neoliberalism and trickle-down [...] GFC can be traced back to the 60-70's - macroecon + micro with absurd assumptions (ie rational expectations, equilibriums, no bubbles) & math & pure theoretical base (no empirical analysis ie of what banks really do ie greed) = makes job of economist as policy advisor real easy.
bank  crisis  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  book  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  western  world  dogma  ideology  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  economic  history  credit  bubble  output  gap  productivity  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  asset  allocation  economics  investment  banking  zombie  banks  retail  banking  financial  product  CDS  CDO  hunt  for  yield  VAR  risk  aversion  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Glass-Steagall  self-regulation  regulators  regulation  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  arbitrage  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  BOE  zombie  consumer  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  corporations  NPL  junk  bond  realestate  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  equilibrium  disequilibrium  Economist  economists  Adair  Turner  hayek 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
More Evidence Supporting the House of Debt | House of Debt
Many have argued that we overstate the importance of housing and household debt in explaining the Great Recession and weak recovery. They point to the banking crisis, policy uncertainty, or excessive regulation as equally or even more important. The data released today by the BEA show pretty clearly that the arguments we make in House of Debt remain relevant for thinking about economic weakness today. In our view, the explanation we provide is the most consistent with the striking difference in consumption across states. // From Comments: Without real median income rising you can’t grow in an economy based on debt expansion
secular  stagnation  consumer  debt  mortgage  market  household  debt  USA  UK  recovery  GFC  credit  card  debt  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  book  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumerist  consumerism  zombie  consumer  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  negative  equity  job  creation  precarious  work  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  Service  Sector  Jobs  job-creation  squeezed  middle  class  Elizabeth  Warren  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  mobility  social  mobility  American  Dream  post-racial  America  Joseph  Stiglitz  Thomas  Piketty  Paul  Krugman  part-time  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  income  growth  income  inequality  economic  history  Super  Rich  1%  austerity  oligarchy  plutocracy  fiscal  stimulus  budget  deficit  corporate  welfare  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  corporate  tax  rate  subsidies  subsidizing  welfare  state  social  safety  net  western  world  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Chicago  School  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Amid market turmoil and confusion, there are four key economic trends shaping society
The UK economy currently gets nowhere near its target of 2%. Inflation would decrease the value of current debts, making them less of a burden. In a world without much inflation, it is hard to get wages up. The worse case scenario is that debt costs increase, as prices and wages stagnate. [ ignoring debt and income growth - stagnation at their peril - youtu.be/KIaXVntqlUE - gov is no household budget, Steve Keen + Richard Koo ] [...] And in this age of austerity, these factors will work against governments seeking to reduce the welfare bill. Recent data shows that, in UK cities, growing numbers of low paid jobs have led to rising claims for welfare such as housing benefits, defeating the government’s aims to reduce spending.
economic  history  secular  stagnation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  inflation  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  minimum  wage  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  tax  credit  housing  benefit  working  tax  credit  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  western  world  GDP  wage  inflation  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  inequality  income  inequality  income  redistribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  monetary  system  monetary  theory  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  banks  monetary  velocity  Niall  Ferguson  NPL  junk  bond  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  China  credit  BRIC  output  gap  productivity  industrial  policy  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  property  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  money  supply  faultlines  global  imbalances  recovery  working  poor  Precariat 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  deposit  levy  MarioDraghi  Abenomics  economic  history  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  recovery  Yen  Euro  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  distortion  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  debt  bubble  New  Normal  financial  repression  faultlines  global  economy  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Japan  UK  secular  stagnation  western  world  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflation  Sweden  Switzerland  China  Yuan  JGB  2016  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Super  Cycle  recession  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Bill Gross' Advice To Traders As Stocks Crash | Zero Hedge
His conclusion: "The wealth effect is created by leverage based on QE’s and 0% rates." In other words, it was all an illusion.
leverage  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  history  401k  bank  bailout  GFC  distortion  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  oligarchy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  crony  capitalism  capitalism 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
The Great Unraveling Looms - Blame The 'Austrians'? | Zero Hedge
Well, well: who would have believed it. First the Bank for International Settlements comes out with a paper that links credit booms to the boom-bust business cycle, then Britain's Adam Smith Institute publishes a paper by Anthony Evans that recommends the Bank of England should ditch its powers over monetary policy and move towards free banking. [...] The BIS paper will be the more influential of the two in policy circles, and this is not the first time the BIS has questioned the macroeconomic assumptions behind the actions of the major central banks. [...] Targeting nominal GDP is not a perfect answer.
credit  bubble  economic  history  BIS  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  working  poor  credit  card  debt  household  debt  property  bubble  consumer  debt  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  China  USA  subprime  car  loan  debt  servitude  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  Student  debt  Super  Cycle  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Fed  ECB  BOE  Japan  BOJ  Abenomics  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  income  inequality  low  income  income  redistribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  group  think  think  tank  vested  interest  interest  groups  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  democracy  democracy 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
"How The Investment Grade Dominos Will Fall" - UBS Explains | Zero Hedge
According to Citigroup's Matt King, it is now officially too late to save junk debt, which has entered the final stage of the credit cycle, the one where defaults for high yield bonds rise with every passing month. [...] we estimate that nearly $1tn of speculative-grade credits are at risk of default over the next downturn, as the stock of low-quality credit has soared. [...] These developments are a negative headwind for investment-grade corporates in 2016.
creditrating  creditrisk  NPL  corporate  debt  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  speculative  bubbles  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  leverage  junk  bond  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  monetary  policy  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  economic  history  Taper  QT  M&A 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
The Deflation Monster Has Arrived | Zero Hedge
the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling. [...] The next thing is to give money to Main Street. [...] Either way, money will be printed out of thin air and given to you. That’s what’s coming next. Possibly after a failed attempt at demanding negative interest rates from the banks. But coming it is. [...] Once people lose faith in their currency all bets are off. The smart people will be those who take their fresh central bank money and spend it before the next guy.
deflationary  deflation  debt  servitude  credit  bubble  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  secular  stagnation  UK  USA  Europe  western  world  Precariat  precarious  work  household  debt  Richard  Koo  GFC  China  recovery  property  bubble  subprime  economic  history  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  capitalism  crony  capitalism  exploitation  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  NPL  sovereign  debt  crisis  private  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bank  bailout  distortion  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  financial  repression  2016  2015  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  fiat  money  fiat  currency  trust  distrust  trustagent 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börse: Warum Schwellenländer für die Kurskrise sorgen - Kolumne - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Chronisch überschüssige Leistungsbilanz [ & Over capacity for less/stagnant demand ... + biggest credit bubble (china) popped as the west can't afford more. QE and ZIRP has run it's way! ] [...] Der Grund, warum der deutsche Aktienindex weitaus mehr betroffen ist als andere europäische Indizes, liegt allein an der strukturellen Abhängigkeit der deutschen Industrie von Blasen in anderen Ländern. Anstatt auf bessere Stimmung zu hoffen, sind Anleger gut beraten, sich über den weiteren Verlauf der Schwellenländerkrise Gedanken zu machen. [...] [ Fed taper makes things more difficult to serve debt ] [...] Langfristig sind es die Gewinne und nicht die Zinsen, die die Aktienpreise treiben. //&! China (Asia/BRIC/Frontier Market) Corporate Bond Yields up - bit.ly/1Sme7fV & NPL probably too. //&! If property is biggest item of household wealth in a property bubble (UK, China, ... USA) - bit.ly/1Zpiy8M
trade  deficit  BRIC  credit  bubble  western  world  secular  stagnation  macroeconomic  policy  China  Japan  Germany  UK  USA  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  NPL  shadow  banking  shadow  economy  banking  crisis  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  QT  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  mortgage  market  Fed  BOE  ECB  European  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  private  debt  corporate  debt  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  austerity  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  Russia  OPEC  aggregate  demand  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  Richardkoo  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  student  loan  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  trade  agreement  Hegemony  TPP  TTIP  TISA  CETA  NAFTA  Africa  South  Africa  global  trade  trade  balance  current  account  deficit  Frontier  Markets  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Taper  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  Abenomics  economic  history  India  irrational  exuberance  Robert  Shiller  inequality  Gini  coefficient  deflationary 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Perfect Storm!? | Zero Hedge
And with debt now $57 trillion higher worldwide than in 2008, it’s not at all clear that another borrowing binge will be greeted with enthusiasm by the world’s bond markets, currency traders or entrepreneurs. [ market correction, no liquidity, stuck with position, this may be no correction, but correction back to fundamental grounds ] [...] And one thought will appear in all those minds: Why didn’t I load up on gold when I had the chance?
2015  2016  China  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  household  debt  mortgage  market  property  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  credit  card  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  servitude  corporate  debt  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  economic  history  Taper  Fed  BOE  ECB  PBOC  output  gap  globalisation  globalization  borderless  secular  stagnation  western  world  OPEC  Oil  price  commodity  prices  flat  world  BRIC  leverage 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Economy concerns as household debt rises to £40bn in latest figures | Business | The Guardian
Families are expected to run up £40bn of debt this year, sparking fears about Britain’s economic recovery. [...] (OBR) forecasts have found that households have moved from a surplus of £67bn in 2010, the year the coalition took power, to a £40bn deficit this year. Unsustainable borrowing is on course to near the levels reached in the run-up to the 2008 financial crash, according to Labour. Seema Malhotra, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said: “George Osborne is relying on millions of British families going further into debt to hit his growth targets. [ as projected by economists, that household had to take up debt, shifting debt burden off the public balance sheet, when austerity plans were revealed together with LibDems, to meet growth targets/estimates, back then. same w decistions to increase student loans, convert grants into loan ie for nursing, remove allowances and grants. same w the green bank. shifting items off the balance sheet. and underinvestment. ]
economic  growth  austerity  trickle-down  economics  underinvestment  George  Osborne  nasty  party  Tories  Conservative  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  Student  Maintenance  Grant  Education  Maintenance  Allowance  debt  loan  debt  loan  Student  Bubble  generation  rent  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  policy  Liberal  Democrats  household  debt  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  credit  card  debt  credit  card  car  loan  Precariat  precarious  work  child  tax  credit  working  tax  credit  tax  credit  wage  stagnation  income  growth  inequality  Gini  coefficient  rat  race  status  anxiety  status  symbol  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  ZIRP  NIRP  mortgage  market  property  hunt  for  yield  QE  New  Normal  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  debt  private  debt  Privatisation 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
The roof is being fixed but beware the house crashing beneath it | Business | The Guardian
Consumer spending is driving economic growth but household debt and the house price-income ratio is at a record high. Be afraid [...] It is worth recalling that when Osborne became chancellor five and a half years ago that he had two big objectives. The first was to repair the hole in the public finances, which is still very much a work in progress. The other was to shift the centre of gravity of the economy back towards making things for export. This remains a pipedream. [...] Despite the welcome pickup in business investment, the main driver of growth has been consumer spending, which has been boosted by low interest rates, the fall in inflation caused by lower oil prices, and a modest acceleration in earnings. [...] “not the ideal shape for the recovery” and it can say that again. The current recovery looks like all the previous recoveries. [...] “Fast-rising household debt is needed to maintain a reasonable rate of growth in consumers’ spending and GDP in a world of austerity ...
household  debt  consumer  debt  zombie  consumer  recovery  credit  card  debt  credit  card  materialism  status  anxiety  USA  UK  Super  Cycle  debtoverhang  mortgage  market  Housing  Crisis  debt  servitude  NPL  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  student  loan  debt  debt  bubble  student  debt  private  debt  economic  growth  GFC  fiscal  policy  austerity  industrial  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  competitive  competitiveness  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  David  Cameron  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  economic  history  energy  policy  energy  price  STEM  Manufacturing  diversity  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomic  policy  Amber  Rudd  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  secular  stagnation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  consumerist  consumerism  trickle-down  economics  status  symbol  market  affordable  social  budget2015  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Precariat  tax  credit 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Nomi Prins-Federal Reserve Transition to Destruction - YouTube
via - http://schiffgold.com/interviews/former-wall-street-insider-some-form-of-bank-bail-ins-will-come-to-us-video/ ||&! QE and ZIRP bad policy, bank and market cuddeling. no mainstreet recovery! trickle-down failed. Private sector can not carry existing minimal momentum forward. policy has not helped people on the ground. // many bubbles created: junk bond/zombie corps, car loans, student loans, property, ... // transition to destruction, volatility is first sign. // market manipulation! // inflated financial system // rise in NPL! where how will they cover that? another bailout? or bail-in. taking depositors haircut. FDIC can't cover that all.
ZIRP  NIRP  book  QE  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  BRIC  China  2015  junk  bond  trickle-down  economics  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  household  debt  UK  USA  BOE  Fed  mandate  Fed  Janet  Yellen  Mark  Carney  MPC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  retail  banking  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  market  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  benbernanke  alangreenspan  dot.com  speculative  bubbles  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  private  debt  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  fiscal  policy  austerity  consumer  debt  credit  card  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debtoverhang  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mainstreet.org  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  crony  capitalism  corporate  debt  bubbles  asset  bubble  correction  mortgage  market  libor  rigging  scandal  trust  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  FX  reserves  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  balance  sheet  recession  Niall  Ferguson  financial  repression  distortion  Pr 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: BIZ warnt vor Krediten in Schwellenländern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich sieht Alarmzeichen für Banken in vielen Schwellenländern. Die Kreditvergabe in China, Brasilien oder der Türkei habe ein bedrohliches Verhältnis angenommen, warnt die Notenbank. // &! Die Welt steuert auf den Bankrott zu (QE trap): Eine vorläufige Antwort: Das tieferliegende Problem besteht darin, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt auf den Bankrott zubewegt - und das wird umso schneller gehen, je höher die Zinsen sind und je niedriger die Preissteigerungsraten.
BIS  credit  bubble  2015  China  BRIC  NPL  shadow  banking  junk  bond  creditrating  banking  crisis  excess  reserves  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  centralbanks  economic  history  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  speculative  bubbles  FX  reserves  Turkey  Brazil  Developing  World  Fed  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Raghuram  Rajan  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  ECB  emerging  market  emerging  middle  class  AIIB  Asia  South  Africa  Latin  America  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  western  Niall  Ferguson  globalization  globalisation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  income  growth  income  mobility  income  gap  wage  growth  GFC  recovery  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Pact  European  Union  UK  USA  Richard  Koo  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  dogma  ideology  Fed  mandate  inflation  targeting  New  Normal  bond  bubble  QE  trap  liquidity  trap  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  property  bubble  capital  allocation  QT  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  digital  economy  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  World  Bank  IMF  savings  glut  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  Super  Cycle  debt  ser 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Fed has to deal with its own zombie apocalypse
"However, there are pockets of greater weakness like these zombie companies. These pockets are likely to see some more turbulence than overall conditions. Some companies definitely will go out of business." It isn't just the zombies, though, that should worry about higher rates. Corporate America overall has been piling on the debt, which grew 8.3 percent in the second quarter, according to figures the Fed released Friday. [...] Michael Contopoulos, high-yield strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said the high-yield space is a mess no matter what the Fed does. Global economic weakness and deteriorating fundamentals are making it increasingly harder for the Fed to underwrite junk debt through a zero funds rate. [...] Earnings for junk companies have been "incredibly weak," [...] "leverage is at all-time highs" while "defaults and downgrades are creeping into the market." [...] the issues with high-yield could be more secular in nature.
zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Junk  Bond  Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  USA  Richard  Koo  interest  payments  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unconventional  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  distortion  unknown  unkown  complexity  QT  2015  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  credit  ratings  secular  stagnation  western  world  refinancing  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  corporate  debt  leverage  margin  trading  reflate  reflation  productivity  UK  Europe  output  gap  competitive  competition  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  New  Normal  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
World Bank warns on US rate rise - BBC News
[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Public Lecture by Professor Niall Ferguson 2013-04-09 - YouTube
[6 Killer Apps - youtu.be/xpnFeyMGUs8 ] Degeneration and Regeneration after the GFC // interlude: Margaret Thatcher, the power of ideas in public office, in politics: Nature of freedom, economic freedom & other freedoms. Hayek & Adam Smith // The Great Degeneration (new Book 2013). Theme: The role of institutions in the creation and preservation of freedom. // GFC = "The slight depression." Avoided Great Depression like scenario by policy response (reflation) different to previous history. Talks abt equity market levels back 2 pre-2007 levels. EQUITY/(financial) ASSET PRICES. Bank Bailout! But NOT reached (real economy) escape velocity! Proper recovery! Under Keynes it should be an admission of defeat (bc lack of fiscal stimulus)! Is a sub-plot in the story of western decline! Great reconvergence of west & the rest of the world. // &! youtu.be/VVsP2X4kuA8 &! importance of civil institutions - youtu.be/8RB7Ah95RM4 bit.ly/1NqF7am &! youtu.be/kXTjj9NQKYo &! youtu.be/tyYTChxYAQ4
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why did Japan stop growing? Professor Takeo Hoshi at ANU - YouTube
Blyth argued its culture/society & structural. TPP trade deal might help productivity growth & opening Japan further 2 global trade. & encourage immigration reform. Regulatory reform; stop protection of zombies (gov guarantees, contracts, subsidies), corporate governance. Oversight. Transparency. Also Start-up rate (bottom-up disruption) needs reform (reduce red tape, create start-up/business hubs) // &! What is Abenomics? - youtu.be/_UafzhHzmwE //&! Noriko Hama & Yukio Noguchi "Abenomics and What comes After" - youtu.be/a29FTJXYev0 'unable to share affluence' - income redistribution << marginal propensity to consume, 16% left out of society (poverty), lack of empathy & compassion. BOJ is single lender 2 gov. Career Politicians! Companies have no need 2 borrow/cant force banks 2 lend. //&! min52 Problem of rising long-term interest rates solved w BOJ debt monetisation = inflation (probable near future scenario). &! youtu.be/ArnLHTE0e1g &! youtu.be/wYtJ7Fyn9NA &! youtu.be/AbKeTeb-I_M
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
China's impossible trinity - BBC News
At the heart of China's problem is the "impossible trinity" of international macroeconomics. The impossible trinity - or trilemma - is the idea that it is impossible for a country to have three things at the same time: a stable currency, the free movement of capital (i.e. the absence of capital controls) and independent monetary policy. A country can instead choose just two of the options from this policy suite. The UK, in common with most developed economies, has free capital movement and an independent monetary policy - but not a controlled exchange rate. The Bank of England sets interest rates at a level it thinks is right for the UK economy and - as capital can flow into and out of the UK at will - the exchange rate is determined by the market. [...] But the bigger criticism is usually over the nature of the post-2009 stimulus package [...] But, for all the criticism, the counterfactual is rarely stated. What would global growth have looked like without it? [//+ deflation factors]
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
▶ How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
credit great 4 productive investments 4 the future that will benefit u/me/gov/biz like infrastructure/edu/skills. but waste 4 pure consumption that dont increase productivity in the long run. Like consumer credit spend 2 replace a 2yr old flat screen. vs consumer credit 4 vocational/professional further edu 2 get a higher earning job (future higher income 2 repay the then debt liability & have some more/left over). Bad if u dont have later higher earnings from higher education 2 repay debt & just work in an underemployed placement that any college dropout could do. Thing is, college dropout doesnt have that debt liability that the higher education person has (reduced disposable income bc debt repayment + interest payments.) Women are hit double (gender pay gap) & triple (childcare long-term earnings loss). // min16 income growth important 2 keep up with debt repayment beyond interest. if not, we reached peak long-term debt cycle! // doesnt include globalisation's deflationary effects
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Duncan: The Real Risk Of A Coming Multi-Decade Global Depression - YouTube
50 year long debt super cycle & credit bubble up-held. Put. // hasnt created inflation because of Globalisation = deflationary! [3bn ppl living on $2/day] Collapse of marginal cost of labour, offsetting inflation pressure of QE/NIRP/credit creation last decades. // Will eventually haunt people back once globalisation has run its way in ~100-75 years & the world is actually flat. energy cost 0, marginal cost 0, economics of abundance. // // min 23 AND because of this deflationary pressure of globalisation, excess capacity, etc lead to wage stagnation & or pressure to work 4 less (Contractor, Werkvertrag, Zeitarbeit, self-employment, Zero Hour Contract, outsourcing) and longer, in western world. Leads inevitably 2 being pushed into recession & avoiding that authorities always pushed button 4 more credit. Credit growth prevented western world not 2 be pushed into recession in last decades. 2010 Private Sector cant drive recovery! Massive Gov stimulus needed +10 years, not austerity!
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Forget China - Oil Price Is Main Driver Of Market Turmoil | Zero Hedge
For the moment we are expecting oil producers to start to minimize their loses by producing even more oil. The oil crisis has just begun. // // &! DeMark compares China to the start of the Great Depression in the US, and when applying the 38.2 Fib retracement levels which have been breached, now expects even more pain for Chinese stocks - bit.ly/1NJdISb // // &! THINGS WERE TOO FAR AWAY FROM REALITY - Many indicators confirm that last week was remarkable and historic. Record after record was set, including the largest daily move, the biggest intra-day reversal and the most harrowing intra-day air pocket. - bv.ms/1O45W2i - legitimate questions about the robustness of the global economy [ contagion & overshoot - hubris and panic alike, good news gets washed down w bad news, extreme volatility still break markets, contagion still real & ppl are leveraged again (were complacent, institutional! investors!) ] market craziness. [ irrational exuberance that were equities ]. &! bv.ms/1UnLeMV
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! bit.ly/1fQ2lcq // &! bloom.bg/1Euf6peh // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
UK interest rate rises - waiting for lift-off | Business | The Guardian
In 2018 – by when, bear in mind, most of the work of austerity is expected to have been done – Miles calculates that fiscal consolidation will still drag interest rates downwards by more than 0.75% compared to what would otherwise be the case. This is one of the factors explaining the (commonly held) assumption that interest rates will approach a “new normal” over the next few years that is likely to be about half as high as the 5% that prevailed pre-financial crisis. Even in the second half of the parliament this “fiscal headwind” will still be blowing strong. [...] The case for introducing more transparency isn’t mere technocratic trimming. The balance struck between monetary and fiscal policy has big consequences. There are obvious distributional implications (all else equal, mortgage holders win; savers lose). There are ramifications too for the capital allocation process, the current account, and the risk of an asset-bubble. The list goes on: the macro-mix matters.
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
STEPHANIE FLANDERS: It's borrowing and debt driving Britain's recovery | This is Money
New forecasts that went with his speech paint a different picture, of a recovery driven in large part by households borrowing more, and saving less. The level of household debt, relative to income, has been falling since the crisis, as families have cut back and worked to pay off debt. But the new Budget forecasts show it starting to rise again, from the final quarter of this year, moving from 142 per cent of income back up to 166 per cent by 2019. That’s more or less where household debt had got to in the lead up to the financial crisis, after all that irresponsible ‘debt fuelled growth’ under Gordon Brown. [...]And total level of investment is now more than 20 per cent below where it was at the start of 2008. // &! bit.ly/1IxXKax - low inflation, no inflation pressures expected till 2016 // &! bit.ly/1DepsJ2 - The UK has the most unbalanced economy of any OECD country.
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Royal Dutch Shell cuts 6,500 jobs - BBC News
Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell has announced it has shed 6,500 jobs as part of cost-cutting plans as it seeks to counter falling oil prices. // &! bbc.in/1OPYI2I - British Gas owner Centrica cuts 6,000 jobs [...] However, the strong performance at British Gas was offset by a collapse in profits at Centrica's oil and gas production division. Profits in this unit fell 78% to £116m as a result of lower oil prices. [...] Centrica appointed Iain Conn as chief executive at the start of this year. He has been conducting a strategic review of the business over the past five months, which has concluded Centrica should concentrate on the British Gas side of the business and reduce its activities in actual energy production, which takes major investment. That is a less attractive business currently, as raw energy costs, such as oil, are around $50-60 a barrel, half the levels of last year. Centrica said it was assuming the oil price would not move far from that for the foreseeable future.
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Sorry to burst your bubble | The Economist
bit.ly/1IfX0s9 // "According to two new papers, the crucial variable that separates relatively harmless frenzies from disastrous ones is debt." // see China Stock Market leverage pop mid 2015 - with its huge rise in margin debt trading ... money which was flowing out of the property market into the Stock Market // // &! so if it is about debt - UK mortgage market & consumer/private debt of all kind (loans and credit card debt) does qualify as they took up what was cut by austerity. Plus the Supply Demand distortion, with new builds/project at a decades lowest. // Question for China. The China problem. Can they make their system sustainable before it will crush everyone. // The most obvious is China. But the next one will be different & greater than all came before. Period. Still, UK had not a housing bubble collapse on its own making. Only through endogenous circumstances. UK recession as UK economy runs mostly on consumer sector & debt) bit.ly/1OpClSO bit.ly/1wQITjb bit.ly/1SycLtY
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Yellen: There's Still Slack in Labor Markets - YouTube
>> signs that a debt fuelled recovery doesn't fix the long standing (since 90's 2000's post dot.com) underlying fundamentals of an economy. // low wage low productivity jobs especially part-time and minimum wage - doe not have an economic multiplier as a whole, they cost the economy or are at least net-net 0. // it is the same in UK. and signs show in Germany as well. // &! subprime was one of many predatory lending practices to financial illiterate ppl and exploitation of the underbanked/unbanked, and banks also choose to charge minorities higher interest rates - youtu.be/CbW9mH7p_8E + and add also practices of Payday Loans. Those things are a symptoms of the system at large. Resulting in the Poverty Trap.
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
The Coming Crash & The Recession That Never Ended - Part 1 - YouTube
Part 2 youtu.be/SpJ4L2QGNI4 [ min 2:00 post WW2 german debt jubilee - American & Britain needed Germany as bulwark against USSR! thus Germany had leverage because it was systemic. Greece is not systemic, nor needed. Thus they openly talk, relaxed, abt Grexit. Grexit was systemic risk in the first ~3 years post GFC, because of underfunded German, Frensh and Belgian zombie banks. 6:00 PIGS generation will be disillusioned about claims of European Union unity! 7:30 austerity ] // &! Part 3 - youtu.be/FWulzJy2oXc Bernie Sanders on inequality &! social mobility, skills gap, ... make-up of USA economy is a impediment to future growth (output gap, no more 3% annually) & also part-cause of inequality ... &! Part 4 youtu.be/8wzDwU1pzpY - China may tumble bc they dont have the internal & global demand for the infrasturcture/economy they have build (debtoverhang, debt servitude) &or social uprising &! USA overreach // Forget QE, Wall Street’s new drug is the stock buyback - on.mktw.net/1HDtdUR
Richard  Wolff  Taper  equity  bubble  China  irrational  exuberance  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  stock  buyback  fundamentals  economic  growth  recovery  UK  USA  balance  sheet  recession  Europe  Richard  Koo  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  labour  market  participation  rate  underemployed  structural  unemployment  structural  imbalance  Impediments  unemployment  youth  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  Gini  coefficient  income  growth  disposable  income  low  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  employment  self-employment  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  working  poor  social  mobility  income  mobility  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  part-time  Contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  uncertainty  Niedriglohnsektor  minimum  wage  Niedriglohn  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  deleveraging  debtoverhang  savings  rate  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  skills  gap  education  policy  vocational  education  economic  history  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  discretionary  spending  dogma  ideology  austerity  neoliberal  neoliberalism  democracy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  debt  monetisation  debt  stagnation  inequality  history  debt  debt  debt  m 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Mark Carney indicates that interest rates may rise this year - BBC News
>> uk is as USA, consumer dependent // bbc.in/1M8GM3L - 2% in two years - inflation targeting, slack in economy drag on rising cost, ... // looks forward how inflation looks at the turn of the year! as commodity price drop gets out of calculation y/y. // &! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33560035
UK  BOE  2015  Taper  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Mark  Carney  monetary  policy  mortgage  market  property  bubble  housing  market  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  deleveraging  recovery  economic  history  GFC  Richard  Koo  BIS  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  savings  rate  credit  card  consumer  debt  household  debt  private  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  austerity  fiscal  policy  secular  stagnation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  inflation  targeting  output  gap  productivity  2016 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - YouTube
too big to bail, thus stick it to the countries individually. // Draghi Put - LTRO, LTRO 2, ELA, what ever it takes, TLTRO, // 5trn (40% of EU GDP) put into banks since the crisis (as of 2013). // NPL (via stress test) - 1.22trn in NPL in EU banking system as of 2013. // TINA - there is no alternative (same with UK budget2015) - bbc.in/1N3hrdu &! Angela Merkel "Alternativlos" // bailed out the assets (income for banks via mortgages, loans, businesses loans and credit lines, insurance policies, 401ks, pension fund contributions) of the top 20-30% of the income distribution. austerity is put on the bottom 70-20% of the income distribution. a bailout not just of the banks, the system, but also the top 20-30%, the Super Rich, 1%, the Establishment, the Privileged, the babyboomers, the pensioners. ... and add QE, you really reflate/bail out the 1% ... 10% ... 20%, their pensions, investments, and so forth. // this was and still is a Class specific Put Option for those with assets!
Mark  Blyth  austerity  bailout  book  GFC  ECB  toobigtofail  TBTF  bank  bailout  too  big  to  bail  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  financial  repression  economic  history  dogma  ideology  crony  capitalism  European  Union  Troika  Eurogroup  NPL  reflate  reflation  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  complexity  oversight  investment  banking  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  financial  literacy  financial  market  financial  crisis  Wolfgang  Schäuble  MarioDraghi  equity  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  European  Commission  European  Parliament  Angela  Merkel  GroKo  lenderoflastresort  Germany  banking  EuroFin  IMF  OECD  academia  academics  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  spin  doctor  PR  manufactured  consent  propaganda  Lügenpresse  populism  corporate  media  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  budget2015  George  Osborne  Tories  Conservative  Party  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  No  bubble  asset  bubble  R 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Koo: "Out of the Balance Sheet Recession and into QE 'Trap'" - YouTube
Released new book end of 2014. // Banks unable to lend money 2 unwilling (eligible) customers. Money remains on the private banks (&Central Banks in form of bonds) balance sheets/books & mostly allocated towards parking it overnight @Central Banks deposit facility (thus ECB put up a deposit levy, late into the game) or liquid fairly un(der)productive investment classes like gov bonds. // Companies (& people ie 4 education/housing) borrowing & investing (into the future, that is uncertain, unknown, deflationary)!? // 19:30 Even Abenomics is not working. Bc trauma towards Debt! behavioural economics: experience of debt servitude on less income, additional uncertainty & distrust! // Lowering corporate tax rate (like George Osborne) does not help. // Persistent low inflation expectations. // Taper extremely difficult: 2.5trn excess in long bonds. Unknown territory. Possibly future higher interest rates than fnd economic growth does warrant - adding to output gap & new normal.
2015  UK  USA  liquidity  trap  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Japan  Fed  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  austerity  economic  history  economic  model  academia  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  LTRO  TLTRO  lost  decade  lost  generation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Career  Politicians  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  negative  real  interest  rate  deposit  levy  economic  growth  trickle-down  economics  secular  stagnation  headwinds  Great  Depression  PIIGSFB  PIGS  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  economic  damage  behavioral  economics  zombie  banks  Abenomics  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  cash  flow  cash  flow  management  trust  distrust  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  servitude  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  student  debt  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  competitiveness  competitive  industrial  policy  budget2015  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  demographic  bubble  uncertainty  Sozialer  Abstieg  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Yen  JGB  Taper  greatrecession  USD  dogma  ideology  public  investment  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  productive  investment  book  rate  private  savi 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
David Stockman: Central Banks Setting Up World for Bad Time - YouTube
"monetary madness" - repeat phrase of we aim for 2% inflation, that is why we do it. // BIS warned recently in its yearly paper - that Central Banks are unable to combat any global crisis flare-up that is more likely to be worse than GFC ... could be China of all things. // 2000 bust was fought with fed easing and throwing money at it, and GFC too. Next crisis - throwing money at it and easing will not be possible. // &! Deflation Comes First, Then Inflation - Mike Maloney - youtu.be/vAFtlgJNMCo // &! "One Bet, that is Big Enough, (that maybe was even conventional wisdom that it is save and THE BET) when wrong, does put you in a deep deep hole - youtu.be/tp9UjhZz-eo --- Nassim Taleb. There are lots of candidates/things that could blow up in peoples faces. &! Nouriel Roubini: Deflation Needs Monetary, Fiscal Policy - youtu.be/IADncoxQRYg
BIS  deflationary  deflation  financial  repression  BOE  Fed  ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Abenomics  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  inflation  expectation  inflation  currency  war  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  austerity  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  economic  history  IMF  currency  debasement  inflation  targeting  disinflation  hyperinflation  dis-inflation  deleveraging  leverage  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  dot.com  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  fiat  money  trust  trustagent  Nassim  Taleb  Black  Swan  Greece 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Abenomics: Is It Time to Label the Plan a Failure? - YouTube
QE stops the worst from happening. but it doesn't create the best outcome to happen. // &! white elephants and roads and bridges to nowhere part of wrongly headed short-term view of fiscal stimulus made-up by Career Politicians ... :/
Abenomics  BOJ  economic  history  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  fiscal  stimulus  demographic  bubble  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  financial  repression  Richard  Koo 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
James Rickards - The Death of Money - 04-30-15 - YouTube
distribution of risk (bell curve, wrong) & talebs black swan! / 'dismal science alone doesn't do the world and people justice.' / IMF is the central bank of the world (funded, special drawing right - SDR; out of thin air - backed by national central banks as reference (basket) but not backed by anything. printed money.) / Hungary's crisis - people borrowing in Swiss Franc ... SDR marry go round paying someone off with the help of IMF ... / IMF is transparent non-transparent. Try reading it. Need to be an expert. / AIIB able to issue bonds and got billions in capital - China/Asia Development Bank. Everybody joined because they want those contracts for their local/national companies ... except USA. Asia (China led) World Bank equivalent. - bit.ly/1Mxz1Dp &! bit.ly/1x04SZv / China wants to be in IMF & be part of basket of SDR / China may back its currency with Gold eventually once theyve got enough & leverage then its position. / US wants Yuan to be pegged to $ / m44 debt sustainability
economic  model  book  economic  history  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  academia  academics  science  sociology  psychology  discounted  risk  risk  discount  complexity  distributed  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  dogma  ideology  centralbanks  Fed  technocrat  IMF  World  Bank  Troika  bailout  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  austerity  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  currency  war  currency-war  currency  debasement  SDR  Special  Drawing  Right  AIIB  inflation  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  systemicrisk  counterpartyrisk  leverage  zombie  banks  Wall  Street  financial  repression  financial  literacy 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The world is defenceless against the next financial crisis, warns BIS - Telegraph
Monetary policymakers have run out of room to fight the next crisis with interest rates unable to go lower, the BIS warns. [...] These low interest rates have in turn fuelled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with even lower rates. [greenspan put][dot.com and GFC were in part fuelled by inadequate rate setting and oversight] [...] [BIS also rejecting the notion of secular stagnation]. // &! BIS 'low rates hold back global growth' - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/12ded5aa-1be6-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996 // &! Rising interest rates pose new risk for banks: BIS - reut.rs/1Jgyft9 [...] but a "normalization" of borrowing costs would reverse the debt-fueled inflation of asset prices and hit banks' own loss-absorbing equity capital, the BIS said. "Just as falling yields have supported asset valuation gains in recent years, an eventual normalization would generate losses ... Banks' equity capital would shrink."
BIS  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  Financial  Crisis  business  cycle  economic  cycle  economic  history  centralbanks  Fed  Taper  ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  BOE  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  zombie  banks  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  bailout  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  fractional  reserve  banking  dot.com  GFC  recovery  Greenspan-Put  alangreenspan  Great  Moderation  Ben  Bernanke  Fed  mandate  Bank  Oversight  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  zombie  consumer  structural  imbalance  Impediments  output  gap  productivity  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  secular  stagnation  asset  allocation  distortion  capital  allocation  asset  bubble  job  creation  labour  market  labour  economics  Niedriglohnsektor  Niedriglohn  Service  Sector  Jobs  lost  generation  lost  decade  policy  folly  policy  error  demographic  bubble  sovereign  debt  debt  bubble  consumer  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  growth  economic  damage  structural  unemployment  underemployed  supply  side  economics  microeconomic  policy  vocational  education  education  policy  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  Silicon  Valley  industrial  policy  ideology  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
US-Ratingagentur Standard & Poor's: Rundumschlag gegen europäische Banken - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die amerikanische Ratingagentur Standard & Poor's hält viele europäische Geldhäuser für weniger kreditwürdig. Die Bonitätswächter stuften die Deutsche Bank um zwei Noten zurück. Sie liegt nun nur noch knapp über Ramschniveau. [...] Hintergrund des Rundumschlags sind die neuen EU-Regeln, wonach Banken nicht mehr wie in der Finanzkrise darauf zählen können, vom Staat gerettet zu werden. Aus diesem Grund hatte Mitte Mai bereits die Ratingagentur Fitch die Kreditwürdigkeit mehrerer Banken herabgestuft. [ vs USA which has no no-bailout law. ]
EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  zombie  banks  Europe  PIGS  Grexit  Brexit  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  IMF  Troika  economic  history  GFC  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  ECB  policy  monetary  policy  toobigtofail  TBTF  investment  banking  bailout  systemicrisk  banking  crisis  banking  union  sovereignty  Gramny  France 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Eurozone still in denial about Greece - BBC News
In the highly unlikely event that Greece could generate a 2% or 3% surplus year-in and year-out without its economy shrinking further (which few economists would anticipate), it would take around half a century for Greek public sector debt to fall to a level regarded as sustainable. A half century of austerity? In what modern democracy would that be regarded as a realistic option? So all these fraught talks about a release of the last 7.2bn of cash from the current rescue facility can probably be seen as displacement activity. And if there is agreement in the next day or so on a framework to release that cash, this should be seen as no more than a short-term temporary fix. [...] Or to put it another way, it is all about whether the IMF and eurozone can keep up the pretence that Greece is a sound and solvent debtor. [...] relatively small and weak private sector will ever have the capacity to pay it back.
Grexit  economic  history  PIGS  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  Europe  bailout  zombie  banks  Troika  IMF  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Germany  bank  jog  bank  run  ECB  European  Union  banking  solvency  insolvency  insolvent  Insolvenzverschleppung  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Greece  debt  jubilee  haircut  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  debt  restructuring  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Great  Depression  2015  lost  decade  lost  generation  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  GFC  GoldmanSachs 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Yen breakout - YouTube
The yen has broken out of its Y118-120 to the dollar rut and is expected possibly to fall to Y123. The FT’s Leo Lewis explains to Roger Blitz what has triggered this, its impact on the country’s stock market and where this sits with Abenomics. // adding to yen short position. //
Yen  Japan  Abenomics  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  devaluation  currency  war 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
John Ralston Saul: Moving Beyond Globalism - YouTube
Deregulators & the people behind intellectual cleansing (ie Larry Summers vs Elizabeth Warren back in deregulation time of Clinton&Bush No. 2), have to be held responsible; economic thought; model, thinking, trickle-down, globalisation, no oversight & consumer protection // capitalism & globalisation are not self limiting // GFC is a symptom, Oil crisis in 70/80s, dot.com, world com, enron // globalisation (trade) doesnt solve growth problem // London banking is soufflé with no hard items (no real wealth creation within economy (income growth)) // shift money to who will spend it (re:bailout) // banks & rootless tax evaders global corps have no shared economic interest // "the globalist model" will work everywhere else, according to the IMF/World Bank, democracy will work in the Middle East. said the same people from the same school of thought // globalisation created oligopolies, not more competition! // climate change=investment w ROI // AfD=symptom // added value, no comp on price
GFC  recovery  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  corporate  culture  corporate  governance  corporatism  trickle-down  economics  globalisation  globalization  economic  model  economic-thought  economic  history  economic  cycle  economic  growth  income  growth  Super  Rich  1%  Gini  coefficient  western  world  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  bailout  gesellschaft  social  tension  social  cohesion  Bank  IMF  austerity  neoliberal  neoliberalism  neoconservatism  neoconservatives  duopoly  oligarchy  oligopoly  oligopol  policy  folly  policy  error  Makers  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  populism  propaganda  AfD  UKIP  Protest  Partei  Protest  Party  European  Election  2014  society  Debt  Super  bubble  bond  bubble  jubilee  restructuring  haircut  sovereign  crisis  monetisation  monetization  consumer  household  debtoverhang  private  public  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  intellectual  honesty  climate  change  pollution  value  creation  added  value  middle  class  income  distribution  disposable  income  income  mobility  social  mobility  education  policy  vocational  education  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  differentiate  differentiation 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Staatsanleihen und Zinsen: Kommt der nächste Crash? - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Oil price recovery (with eventual future supply shortage because of lack of investment in 2014/15/16), + USA Taper possibility end of 15 early 16 + UK Taper possibility mid to late 16 + End of ECB QE in 2016 due to defeat of deflation scenario (indicators) + People go into higher yielding assets which are still safe. // Hier ist eine Vorhersage: Sollten die Zinsen stark steigen, wäre das der Auslöser für das nächste ökonomische Desaster. Dann würden reihenweise Unternehmen, Privatbürger und ganze Staaten in die Pleite rutschen. // some companies have not used the time 2 reduce debt level, just pushed out the maturity, UK consumer debt & mortgage debt risen since 09/10 - default risk rises with market rates rising, UK Taper & lack luster income growth. // Die Notenbanken, vor allem die EZB, werden deshalb alles daran setzen, einen starken Anstieg zu verhindern. Dass es zwischenzeitlich zu heftigen Anfällen von Nervosität kommt, können sie allerdings nicht unterbinden.
bond  bubble  Taper  Oil  price  2015  asset  allocation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  Fed  BOJ  ECB  BOE  Europe  UK  USA  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  GFC  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mortgage  market  consumer  debt  monetary  policy  Super  Cycle  deleveraging  debt  bubble  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  debtoverhang  M3  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  energy  price  austerity 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Bargeld: Peter Bofinger will Münzen und Scheine abschaffen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/bargeld-abschaffen-eine-schraege-debatte-muenchau-kolumne-a-1034256.html // Geld hat exakt drei Funktionen - juristisch wie ökonomisch. Es ist Zahlungsmittel, Zahlungseinheit und ein Mittel zur Wertaufbewahrung. Bei den ersten zwei Funktionen gibt es keinen Unterschied zwischen Bargeld und E-Geld, zumindest keinen prinzipiellen. Ob Sie mit E-Karte bezahlen oder mit Euroscheinen: Ihr Zahlungsmittel ist akzeptiert und die Einheit ist immer der Euro. Wer also von geprägter Freiheit spricht, kann logischerweise nur die dritte Funktion des Geldes meinen, die Wertaufbewahrung. [...] Scheine sind kein Geld, nur ein Versprechen [trust & confidence] // would allow to tax bank and asset accounts in a deposit haircut move like in Cyprus, would be easier to monitor ie spending (anonymized and aggregated) and cash outflows/capital flight &! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32778196
fiscal  policy  cash  Bargeld  society  economic  history  deposit  haircut  fiat  currency  fiat  money  trustagent  trust  confidence  currency  debasement  Debt  Super  Cycle  monetisation  monetization  ECB  centralbanks  cyber  war  cyber  crime  cyber  security  IT 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Meet the World's Most Bearish Investment Manager - YouTube
ratio - price to book value, we are current extreme value is just toped by 2000. // Tobins Q Ratio - The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. It's a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. // stocks should and are a sideshow, a world for punters. what does matter is investment in capital and tools and higher productivity and progress of humans - but Fed drove wedge in, driving stocks away from reality. ... Market doesn't owe you liquidity. what if liquidity dries up and nobody wants to buy. + HFT! = Flashcrash // http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Q-Ratio-and-Market-Valuation.php // could go on for another 3-4 years till reality hits the fan or an exogenous shock from an vector not seen/anticipated before.
speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  dot.com  GFC  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  2015  Wall  Street  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  distortion  Taper  underinvestment  productive  investment  productivity  output  gap  Fed  Abenomics  BOE  BOJ  ECB  market  correction  HFT  flashcrash  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  IMF  OECD  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Tom Keene's Excited: Counting the Labor Economy - YouTube
break of a trend of rise in net new job creation // rise in uncounted unemployed - biggest count among them black, latino, mexican, // also unaccounted - how much, what sliver of the 2000s stagnation is self-employment numbers where you just make ends needs just about barely inching towards living wage but far off at your cushy old job with a middle class wage. Picture also highlights that 2000 dot.com recovery was a debt fueled recovery. As well as is the recovery from the GFC. Lay over that graph also GDP and GDP per capita. And S&P500 (w dividends, w revenues of businesses in the S&P500 USA companies US business) That will show. //
21stcentury  2000  labour  market  labour  economics  USA  Western  World  globalisation  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  borderless  competitive  competition  competitiveness  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Wall  Street  contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  outsourcing  job  creation  Industrial  Revolution  economic  history  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  unemployment  underemployed  workforce  participation  rate  self-employment  employment  structural  unemployment  secular  stagnation  dot.com  recovery  GFC  austerity  IMF  OECD  UK  Europe  Germany  squeezed  middle  class  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  economics  of  abundance  marginal  cost  academia  academics  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  bailout  social  cohesion  policy  error  policy  folly  Workers  Union  Millennials  babyboomers  generationy 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Marc Andreessen on innovation and diversity | Fortune - YouTube
Public Market became cautious '14/'15: oil price slump + China + Russia + secular stagnation of the west in general (productivity gap & output gap), Abenomics, negative bond yields for gov debt and nearly 0 for corporate AAA debt, deflationary pressures in UK (0% inflation last 2 quarters), Europe (steady decline of M3 & issuance of new debt), & USA (with deflationary pressures as well). macroeconomic indicators do signal caution, because despite all the efforts (throwing the bathtub at the problem; ECB installing negative yield 4 overnight bank deposits with them) from central banks (NIRP, QE, POMO & other policies), the economic engine of the world & the west is still not going into 3rd or higher. // & Andreesen's argument, against, that tech is in bubblish territory, is, that in comparison with '99/'00 & the Public Markets current caution; (re-)investment (GOOG 11bn '14) & share buybacks (IBM, MSFT) schemes & dividends payout dwarf VC & growth rounds in tech by several magnitudes.
2015  IPO  M&A  Wall  Street  shareholder  shareholder  value  Silicon  Valley  bubbles  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  recovery  GFC  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  Fed  Public  Market  Private  Market  hunt  for  yield  single-class  share  structure  Marc  Andreessen  Venture  Capital  Unicorn  economic  history  macroeconomics  debt  bubble  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  distortion  sovereign  debt  crisis  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  Super  Cycle  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Why 'secular stagnation' matters - BBC News
The question at stake is the issue of "secular stagnation", which is probably the biggest and most important controversy in macroeconomics today. This is not though a debate for the ivory tower, it's an issue with significant real world implications. [...] So what is secular stagnation? It's an idea that originated in the late 1930s with the US Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen. He worried that growth was fundamentally slowing and emphasised demographic factors (such as slowing population growth) as a driver of this. [ western world needs immigration as reproduction level is below 1, capitalism and our economics is fundy based on econ growth, but that is, on the horizon, not possible (excl inflation). what if population is stable!? ] [...] In a nutshell secular stagnation is an attempt to explain the weakness of the global recovery in advanced economies since the 2008 crisis. [ decelerating, debt overhang, balancesheet recession, sov debt crisis ] [...]
secular  stagnation  Europe  Japan  economic  history  lost  decade  global  imbalances  rebalancing  demographic  bubble  demographics  demography  immigration  western  world  economic  growth  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  stagflation  deflation  deflationary  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  austerity  full  employment  Larry  Summers  Paul  Krugman  Ben  Bernanke  savings  glut  complexity  incomplete  information  productivity  output  gap  productive  investment  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
The Ashcroft Interviews: Money, Blood & Revolution - YouTube
George Cooper - broken economics << is in crisis. is not offering useful guidance for policy makers because of so much conflicting views that are taken at time and voiced at times very violently. "economics is akin to astrology." ... QE will create bigger future recession. &! neoclassical = trickle-down/trickle-through &! economics teaches you a wrong view / looking glass &! neoclassical view - getting richer and richer. is that really true? &! maintaining status quo &! self-interest &! Marx says capitalism is polarising
book  economics  economist  GFC  academia  academics  centralbanks  equilibrium  disequilibrium  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  debt  overhang  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  inequality  social  cohesion  trickle-down  economics  liquidity  trap  Philosophy  LTRO  TLTRO  education  policy  social  mobility  income  mobility  fairness  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  downward  mobility  social  safety  net  austerity  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  Super  Rich  1%  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism 
march 2015 by asterisk2a
Another economic crash is coming. How did this happen? – video | Comment is free | The Guardian
David Cameron says a second financial crash is imminent. If he's right, it's because the government bailed out the wrong industry, argues Renegade Economist host Ross Ashcroft. He says the last recession was brought on by too much debt. Today private debt is at the greatest level in recorded human history. By ignoring this and instead focusing on the banks, we are heading for economic armageddon. &! &! &! Global debts rise $57tn since crash - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31136707 &! &! &! The Dirty Little Debt Secret - http://youtu.be/0ptn-jCDizo "Richard Vague - author of The Next Economic Disaster - about his insights into private debt and why this seems to be forbidden knowledge."
debt  bubble  bond  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  monetization  private  debt  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  debt  monetisation  household  debt  debtoverhang  public  debt  GFC  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  Bailout  TBTF  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  fiat  currency  trust  trustagent  confidence  haircut  OECD  lost  decade  lost  generation  Abenomics  QE  Japan  western  world  UK  USA  book 
february 2015 by asterisk2a
Münchau über Quantitative Easing: Wann Anleihenkäufe helfen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Begründung für ein QE-Programm ist nicht eine etwaige Deflation, sondern die Entkoppelung der Inflationserwartungen. Das ist etwas völlig anderes. Wie viele andere Zentralbanken verfolgt auch die Europäische Zentralbank ein Inflationsziel, in unserem Fall von knapp unter zwei Prozent. Alle Indikatoren zeigen, dass die Inflationserwartungen 2014 deutlich nach unten gerutscht sind und nicht mehr bei zwei Prozent liegen. Das Ziel ist also die Rückführung der in der Bevölkerung erwarteten Inflation auf die EZB-Zielmarke von knapp zwei Prozent. Kann ein QE-Programm so etwas überhaupt leisten? Es gibt gute Argumente dafür und dagegen. // lots of headwind in europe and the world; against the hope that banks lend more money to companies and consumers ...
QE  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  deflation  deflationary  Europe  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  inflation  2015  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  system  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  zombi  banks 
january 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB unveils massive QE boost for eurozone
The European Central Bank (ECB) says it will inject at least €1.1 trillion into the ailing eurozone economy. The ECB will buy bonds worth €60bn per month until the end of September 2016 and possibly longer, in what is known as quantitative easing (QE). The ECB has also said eurozone interest rates are being held at the record low of 0.05%, where they have been since September 2014. ECB president Mario Draghi said the programme would begin in March. The eurozone is flagging and the ECB is seeking ways to stimulate spending. Mr Draghi said the programme would be conducted "until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation", which the ECB has pledged to maintain at close to 2%. + bit.ly/1GCvd40 &! bit.ly/1Ci5DgR &! bit.ly/1unR0lf &! bit.ly/1JnpsDm
ECB  QE  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  deflation  deflationary  recovery  Europe  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  GFC  deleveraging  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  Grexit  consumer  debt  private  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  household  debt  debt  restructuring  haircut  public  debt  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  fiat  currency  fiat  money  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  Japan  economic  history  global  economy  2015  faultlines  PIGS  output  gap  productivity  Euro  currency  war  NIRP  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  exit  strategy  MarioDraghi  Wall  Street 
january 2015 by asterisk2a
Anleihekäufe führen nicht zu Inflation: Kolumne von Wolfgang Münchau - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Wenn Sie sich jetzt die Anleihenkäufe der englischen oder der japanischen Zentralbank anschauen, dann ist genau das passiert, was ich gerade beschrieben habe. In beiden Fällen wurde die Geldbasis massiv erhöht. Die Geldmenge bewegte sich nicht. Warum kaufen Zentralbanken die Wertpapiere dann überhaupt? Sie hoffen auf indirekte Effekte, die am Ende einer langen Kette vielleicht doch auf die Geldmenge wirken. [...] Nur leider hat das in Japan zwei Jahrzehnte lang nicht funktioniert. Und bei uns bislang auch nicht. Dafür gibt es verschiedene Gründe: [...] [... overarching trend; a flattening of the curves (of disparity) across the world concerning economic ?pillars?: work type (more advanced work in the supplychain in china & not just labour intensive stuff only. more & more added value done in BRIC, East Europe, ...) #labourmarket, #consumption, #demographics, #edu, savings, social safety net, western style democracy et al) ... fall of Iron Curtain was beginning of process Angleichung]
liquidity  trap  Japan  BOJ  Fed  BOE  ECB  quantitative-easing  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  TARP  POMO  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  sovereign  debt  crisis  Richard  Koo  lost  decade  economic  history  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  business  investment  trust  trustagent  fiscal  policy  austerity  IMF  BIS  centralbanks  confidence  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  haircut  monetary  policy  monetary  system  fiat  currency  deflation  deflationary  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  faultlines  infrastructure  investment  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  competitive  competitiveness  China  BRIC  Frontier  Markets  Developing  global  trade  macroeconomics  microeconomics  labour  market  labour  economics  21stcentury  Software  Is  Eating  The  algorithm  Robotics  automation  Niedriglohnsektor  lohndumping  Lohnzurückhaltung  disposable  income  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
Tumblr Rolls Out Auto-Playing Video Ads To Users’ Dashboards | TechCrunch
[average revenue per user] - Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer said last week during Yahoo’s earnings call that Tumblr is expected to generate over $100 million in revenue for the company, mainly due to the introduction of sponsored advertising. She also noted that Tumblr will achieve positive earnings before interest, tax and depreciation next year, and the platform has seen its audience grow 40 percent to 420 million users. The news surprised investors, who had previously been writing off the $1.1 billion Tumblr acquisition as something of a dud, especially as Yahoo had been silent about Tumblr’s financial situation. (So much for all that brouhaha about Tumblr users abandoning the service following the Yahoo deal.) Mayer also revealed at the time that the number of blogs on Tumblr had nearly doubled to 206 million, and people were staying on the service longer – with Dashboard browsing sessions growing from 22 minutes to 28 minutes.
Tumblr  monetization  monetisation  advertisement  advertisement  targeting  native  advertising  branded  content  advertorial  Platform  TOS  Yahoo!  Marissa  Mayer  ARPU  content  distribution  attention  span  content  discovery 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
WhatsApp’s First Half Of 2014 Revenue Was $15M, Net Loss Of $232.5M Was Mostly Issuing Stock | TechCrunch
Overall, Facebook broke down the money it spent on WhatsApp as $2.026 billion for the user base, $448 million for the brand, $288 million for technology, and $21 million for other. That left it to chalk up the $15.314 billion difference as “good will” aka the value “from future growth, from potential monetization opportunities, from strategic advantages provided in the mobile ecosystem from expansion of our mobile messaging offerings.” WhatsApp’s goal is still growth, rather than monetization. Mark Zuckerberg and WhatsApp CEO Jan Koum said when the acquisition was made in February that ads aren’t the right way to earn money on messaging, yet the app wouldn’t be aggressively pushing the $1 a year subscription fees it sometimes charges. Instead, together the CEOs hope to make WhatsApp the top international messaging app first, box out competitors, and then earn money once it’s solidified its position. &[freemium, virtual goods, customisation, virtual gesture store] & see bit.ly/1u5xXkp
WhatsApp  monetization  monetisation  turfwar  Facebook  freemium  virtual  goods  messaging 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Andreessen: High burn rates risk more than just running out of cash | PandoDaily
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable  a16z  Marc  Andreessen  Ben  Horowitz  SF  war  for  talent  labour  economics  labour  market 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Sam Pepper Exposed - YouTube
The barrel flows over. Finally. Now the shitstorm. || bit.ly/Zg3UsJ + bit.ly/1pvX87b Sam Pepper isn't the only one + buzzfeed.com/ryanhatesthis/youtube-star-sam-pepper-accused-of-soliciting-nude-photos-fr#2o3jkh5 +!+ Laci Green @gogreen18, Sam Pepper called her a cunt and threatened her. >> bit.ly/1roACRW & bit.ly/1u32r4v & bit.ly/ZWYovg & bit.ly/1roALVr & bit.ly/1utsOlH & +!+ ind.pn/1DxudtV +!+ bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/29312669 +!+ bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/29332775 +!+ youtu.be/oucbGT_mNcg - Boogie "Sam, you done goofed." makes it sound harmless. But isn't considering there is a whole genre on YT about harassing and assaulting women, making them the object to conquer. The trophy. The challenge. A challenge where everything goes, for the sake of page views. Bc page views are what makes money. This is not Entertainment. Not substantive. This is exploitation of women, as object. Period. +!+ facebook.com/officiallacigreen/photos/a.284745684212.144562.221909329212/10152554506019213
Sam  Pepper  YouTube  jock  culture  Campus  Misogynie  misogyny  everyday  sexism  sexism  sexismus  sex-sells  Sexual  objectification  objectification  Laci  Green  harassment  gender-based  harassment  gender-based  discrimination  culture  accountability  gender  inequality  gender  politics  gender  policing  pageviews  content  business  model  monetisation  monetization  monetize  Social  Media  exploitation  straight  white  male  white  male  privilege  Viral  virality  copywriting  feminism  feminist  affirmative  consent  consent 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Winter Is (Probably) Coming (Soon) | TechCrunch
"The more you boost your burn, the more risk you take on. [...] The underlying point of Gurley’s and Wilson’s respective riffs is that many companies will have to reduce their burn in the future. And it won’t be easy. And the pair likely won’t be willing to give larger sums to companies that just torched their prior round in ways that they didn’t precisely approve of. Cash is the oxygen of business. When it runs out, the company dies." ... being nimble, frugal, Lean, conservative ... via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8338411
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Burn Baby Burn – AVC
From one of the comments: "f you're backing companies that have bootstrapped their start, you get a different, focussed culture & attitude on burn rates and costs. It forces you to think twice about every cost item. You're running as fast as you can to get traction, customers, product, team, everything aligned within tight costs. It's not about frugality but more aligned to reality. " +++ via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8324047 +++ !!! Fancy Offices - bit.ly/1piSnxO +++ !!! +++ "Gurley and Wilson point to sky high burn rates, not valuations as the red flag in Silicon Valley [...] Gurley and Wilson are lamenting the exorbitant burn rates that have become the norm among venture-backed startups and the lack of fear and accountability signaled by this hyper-aggressive approach." - bit.ly/1m93G0M +++ !!! +++ bit.ly/YQY2WS +++ !!! +++ "Which VCs Have the Most Portfolio Companies with $100M+ of Funding?" - bit.ly/1wo7BHF
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Venture Capitalist Sounds Alarm on Silicon Valley Risk - WSJ
"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." And then you wrote: "Although we may have not reached the level of observing obvious greediness, there is most certainly an absence of fear. Those that managed companies in 2008, or 13 years ago in 2001, know exactly how fear feels. And this is not it." [...] Right now youve got private companies raising $200, $400, $500 million. If youre in a competitive ecosystem & you raise that amount of money, the only way you use it—because these companies are all human-based, theyre not like building stores—is to take your burn up. [2 things: exorbitant high burn rates like '99 & the allure of working for $ loosing companies. &the justification is 'it's Landgrab time,it's still day 1'] &living cost, employee cost &perk &rent cost in SV/SF &surroundings isnt helping either. rising cost is fuelling burn rates &valuations w/ big ABC-Rounds. Didnt we have the glorification of Lean ~3 years ago? A bubble is one WHEN IT POPS!
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Konjunktur in EU: Analyse des ersten Halbjahrs 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In anderen Euroländern dagegen ist die Lage bedenklich. Vor allem Frankreich und Italien, die nach Deutschland größten Volkswirtschaften des Währungsraums, haben große strukturelle Probleme. Und in Krisenstaaten wie Griechenland, Spanien und Portugal geht es dank schmerzhafter Spar- und Reformprogramme zwar inzwischen wieder leicht bergauf mit der Wirtschaft. Doch die Gefahr eines Rückfalls in die Krise ist noch immer groß. || http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/eurostat-inflation-in-euro-laendern-sinkt-auf-rekordtief-a-986068.html - Neue Zahlen von der europäischen Statistikbehörde Eurostat: Die Inflation in den 18 Ländern im Euroraum ist so niedrig wie seit fast fünf Jahren nicht mehr. Das Wirtschaftswachstum kommt zum Stillstand. || + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/bip-deutsche-wirtschaft-schrumpft-um-0-2-prozent-a-986028.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/diw-chef-fratzscher-hoehere-loehne-und-konjunktur-a-986124.html "Investitionen!"
France  Germany  PIGS  Eurpope  sovereign  debt  crisis  2014  stagflation  secular  stagnation  stagnation  ECB  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  creditcrunch  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  economic  history  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  deficit  budget  deficit  liberal  economic  reform  NPL  zombie  banks  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  austerity  faultlines  divergence  Super  Cycle  lost  generation  lost  decade  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  hunt  for  yield  infrastructure  investment  investment  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  haircut  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  public  debt  productivity  output  gap  corporatism  crony  capitalism  coward  risk  sentiment  risk  taking  creditrating  creditrisk  working  poor  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  social  mobility  income  mobility  inequality 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Gefahr durch Niedrigzinsen - YouTube
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  Wall  Street  bond  bubble  PIGS  Fed  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  BOE  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  Europe  UK  USA  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  risk  taking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  creditrisk  hunt  for  yield  deflation  deflationary  secular  stagnation  2014  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  Betongold  Beton  Gold  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  property  bubble  Germany  monetization  monetisation  NPL  IBS  zombie  banks  recovery  greatrecession  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  faultlines  output  gap  productivity 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Henrik Müller über Wirtschaftswachstum 2014: Die Pessimisten sind los - SPIEGEL ONLINE
GDP  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  2014  economic  history  digital  economy  happiness  index  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  knowledge  worker  knowledge  economy  Age  digital  artist  digital  content  content  creator  New  academia  academics  Wikipedia  freemium  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  deflation  deflationary  lost  generation  lost  decade  Year  of  Code  White-collar  Blue-collar  hybrid  work  workless  6-hour  work  day  workforce  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  productivity  output  gap  Silicon  Valley  education  policy  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  disposable  income  leisure  time  Robert  Skidelsky  volunteering  volunteer  maximisation  of  happiness  Jack  of  All  Trades  Future  Future  of  book  Tim  Ferriss  work  life  balance  worklife  underemployed  self-employment  freelance  freelancing  complexity  unknown  unknowns  GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  Europe  UK  USA  PIGS  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Richard  Koo  Super  Cycle  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  debt  jubilee  Japan  BOE  Fed  ECB  Open  Source  Linux  GitHub  BOJ  sharing  economy  less  more  zeitgeist  generational  change  Millennials  generationy  Consumerism  digital  digital  consume 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Is This What A Bursting Bubble Looks Like? - YouTube
- bear market, not a 2008/09 decline, more like a lost decade of little productivity growth and very very slow closing of the still existing output gap. - companies benefit form technological progress (accelerating); get more done with less people. +++ https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/posts/10154276062445062
asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  NIRP  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  Fed  ECB  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  2014  lost  decade  productivity  output  gap  G20  G  Zero  G8  Europe  USA  UK  complexity  unknown  unknowns  Taper  deflation  deflationary  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  middle  class  skill-biased  technological  change  technological  progress  knowledge  worker  knowledge  economy  economic  history  history  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  global  imbalances  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  debt  jubilee  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  default  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  signal  vs  noise  noise  dysfunctional  marketplace  efficiencies  market  dynamics  market  intervention  financial  market  market  failure  market-failure  lost  generation  lostdecade  lostgeneration  currency  debasement  fiat  currency  fiat  money 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Founder School with McKinsey - YouTube
growth can't be infinite in a finite world population. PERIOD. revenue 2x more worth for that margin - in terms of apples to apples company valuation. long-term thinking applies; we can later improve margins. lets focus on scale. market dominance/relevance. [...] getting over the 1bn figure is hard. Instagram. ... WhatsApp ... FB was overpaying (19bn) in order to have it, be relevant in that space, and not let it have anybody else. PERIOD. Was Strategic as Instragram was for Pictures (vertical). [...] Patent system is, can be, stifling in many ways. Because it serves as distraction from the Vision, the Product and the Execution. The current overall patent environment is prohibitive to innovation.
Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  business  math  business  management  shareholder  value  stakeholder  value  valuation  scale  scaling  growth  hacker  economics  business  model  revenues  revenue  Silicon  Valley  long-term  thinking  short-term  thinking  customer  acquisition  customer  retention  monetization  monetize  monetisation  business  plan  stifling  execution  Vision  product  management  Product/Market  Fit  Design  multi-product  company  patent  trolls  innovation  stealth  patent  troll 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Live chart: The low countries - YouTube
Timothy Geithner says no risk of U.S. losing it's AAA credit rating - http://youtu.be/0HDCvqgxrrE || Geithner: Japan's 'Lost Decade' Not America's Fate - http://youtu.be/fax8BIPKcP8 "the hope it's gonna heal itself, to hope you can grow yourself out of it" growing your way out of it" || +!!! Timothy Geithner Fired Robert Shiller? http://youtu.be/bIwBEYoSqKY >> economics has no humans in it !!! no real world example. Conventional wisdom so strong. "We've got too scientific." And anybody who is 'flaky' gets pushed out [Robert Schiller]. >>Wenn du dich auf andere verlaesst, bist du verlassen.<< || Robert Shiller: Speculative Asset Prices - http://youtu.be/oBXPOWytDMs "present value". google.co.uk/search?q=present+value+Robert+Schiller || + Robert Shiller: Nobel Prize Winning Economist - http://youtu.be/ABvtKGrIDUs "it can't be an exact science (forecasting) because of the complexity, mass data; uncertain, certain, and data that can't be put in numbers, storystelling -> feedback loops ...
bond  bubble  Japan  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  hunt  for  yield  lost  decade  lost  generation  deflation  deflationary  liquidity  trap  financial  repression  economic  history  Tim  Geithner  Timothy  Geithner  austerity  balance  sheet  recession  Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  creditrating  creditrisk  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  Super  Cycle  debt  jubilee  GFC  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  toobigtofail  TBTF  systemrelevanz  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  sovereignty  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  Thomas  Piketty  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  savings  glut  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  GDP  economic  model  Robert  Skidelsky  Robert  Reich  Paul  Krugman  consumer  debt  public  debt  debt  restructuring  household  debt  zombie  banks  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  BuBa  leadership  Democratic  Process  democracy  trust  trustagent  confidence  greatrecession  greatdepression  history  evolution  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  Software  Is  Eating  skill-biased  techn 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Der Crash ist die Lösung | SWR1 Leute - YouTube
banks still TBTF, Systemrelevant. << enabled by Own Lobby influencing Career Politicians. haftungsgarantien von ECB are no more capitalism. +++ &&& +++ If even Germany - Wirtchaftslokomotive - export meister - does still have a budget deficit, while being that country that produces more than it consumes, who else if not Germany? But still doesn't. +++ "Die Zeit der Rendite ist vorbei." +++ Schulden zu haben, man ist nicht frei. Frueher hat man das sich gekauft was man sich leisten konnte, ohne kreditkarte, ohne dispo, ohne bankkredit. +++ NEW crash will come of even bigger proportion and even more rubble to clear up afterwards than 2008/9 - GFC. +++ Always buy in tranches, dispersed over time. +++ fractional reserve banking leads to this UBER crash as we live on a planet with finite resources. Current GDP fetish needs to stop. Change of mind, thinking, course. << this is the same with Mobile Creative, future workforce, Software eats the world, UK's productivity gap.
book  GFC  Debt  Super  Cycle  jubilee  sovereign  crisis  liquidity  trap  investigative  journalism  journalismus  monetization  private  consumer  bubble  monetisation  public  household  balance  sheet  recession  PIGS  Europe  lostdecade  lost  decade  lost  generation  greatrecession  greatdepression  toobigtofail  TBTF  OTC  derivatives  systemrelevant  Systemrelevanz  toobigtojail  Career  Politicians  accountability  transparency  Politics  Democratic  Process  democracy  short-term  thinking  long-term  thinking  financial  industry  LIBOR  rigging  scandal  trust  trustagent  confidence  corporatism  crony  capitalism  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  revolving  door  IMF  IWF  centralbanks  economic  history  capitalism  Thomas  Piketty  ECB  EZB  OMT  faultlines  budget  deficit  structural  deficit  Impediments  structural  imbalance  history  financial  repression  New  Normal  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Beton  Gold  property  bubble  fragile  world  fagile  financial  system  external  shock  balckswan  monetary  stimulus  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  growth  round  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  Island  Agentina  Japan  UK  fractional  reserve  banking  GDP  economic  model  fiat  currency  fiat  money  USA  academia  acade 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Kreditklemme trotz EZB-Programmen: Die Banken sind unschuldig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Milan und Sufi sind nicht die ersten, die auf diese Idee kamen. Richard Koo aus Japan entwickelte schon in den neunziger Jahre die These von einer Bilanz-Rezession. Wenn Länder, Firmen und Haushalte überschuldet sind, dann wollen sie sich einfach nur noch entschulden, egal wie günstig die Kredite sind. Koo warnte davor, dass alle gleichzeitig die Schulden abbauen. In Japan hörte man auf ihn. Dort entschuldeten sich die Firmen und die Haushalte, und es verschuldete sich der Staat. In Europa bauen alle ihre Schulden gleichzeitig ab: Staat, Unternehmen, Haushalte. Koo glaubt daher auch, dass wir in eine weit schlimmere Lage geraten werden als Japan. Wir sind auf Deflation programmiert. Koos Thesen sind plausibel. Sie sind aber keine fundierte ökonomische Analyse. Genau das haben jetzt Milan und Sufi geliefert - zumindest für die USA. Wenn sich diese Ergebnisse auch bei uns bestätigen sollten, dann hieße das: Wir machen in Europa so ziemlich alles falsch.
Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  Japan  deflation  deflationary  USA  UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  economic  history  GFC  sovereign  crisis  consumer  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  QE  monetization  monetisation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  monetary  transmission  mechanism  service  deleveraging  2014  recovery  greatrecession  greatdepression  Europe  PIGS  Neuverschuldung  Germany  austerity  IMF  book  lost  generation  lost  decade  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB senkt Leitzins und beschließt Minuszinsen für Banken - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat ihren Leitzins auf ein Rekordtief gesenkt und erstmals einen negativen Einlagensatz beschlossen. Angesichts der zuletzt sehr niedrigen Inflationsrate wird der Zins, zu dem sich die Geschäftsbanken bei der Notenbank Geld leihen können, um 0,10 Punkte auf 0,15 Prozent gesenkt, wie die EZB am Donnerstag nach ihrer Ratssitzung in Frankfurt mitteilte. Der Einlagensatz, zu dem Banken kurzfristig Geld bei der Notenbank parken können, wird erstmals in den negativen Bereich gedrückt. Er sinkt von bisher null Prozent auf minus 0,10 Prozent. Der Zins für kurzfristige Ausleihungen bei der Notenbank vermindert sich von 0,75 auf 0,40 Prozent. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-entscheidung-kredite-und-senkung-des-leitzins-a-973657.html ""Die Banken leiden nicht unter vermeintlich zu hohen Notenbankzinsen, sondern unter dem hohen Bestand fauler Kredite, an dem Negativzinsen nichts ändern." + !! http://youtu.be/kKO_yxP3dyQ !!
deflation  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  ECB  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  2014  ZIRP  OMT  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  deposit  levy  New  Normal  financial  repression  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  Europe  Germany  faultlines  recovery  policy  error  policy  folly  Makers  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  GFC  lost  decade  lost  generation  long-term  unemployment  banking  union  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  2015  NPL  non-performing  loan  economic  history  LTRO  assetbackedsecurities  Sterilization 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Bond Yields Lowest Since Napoleon Are No Comfort to Europe Amid Deflation Fight - Businessweek
Germany issued 5yr bond with a yield of .45%, last year same type of issue was arount the .3% mark. OUCH, way below inflation. - "" “The outright level of yields is suggesting an incredibly weak outlook for growth,” “It’s a powerful signal telling you policy is too tight and that there’s complacency toward the risks. Not a great deal has been solved. We’ve still got bank stress tests to come, too low growth and too low inflation.” ""
deflation  deflationary  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Super  Cycle  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  unemployment  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  OMT  QE  economic  history  recovery  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  2014  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  fiscal  policy  Career  Politicians  Politics  Germany 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Why Twitter, AT&T and GoPro all want to be media companies and Bing Launch of the Week - YouTube
Run of the mill companies which found traction and executed well(ish) to a certain degree (which is debatable) = Technology (which removes friction and enables discovery and builds graph of x [ friends, work, hobby, interests ] & user data [Big Data] ) +++ Media, Content. ... ie. Yahoo! - Tumblr, Twitter, Fb, Pinterest, Soundcloud. There is no free lunch. Period. Soundcloud monetization options: pro accounts, ads, + pre-roll in audio - targeted at same music taste. But intent - to buy - is much lesser degree.
Twitter  Soundcloud  monetization  monetisation  freemium  advertising  ad  advertisement  advertisement  targeting  Facebook  GoPro  Pinterest  interest  graph  intent  YouTube  Twitch  Google  Tumblr  Yahoo!  business  model  Big  Data  Platform 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - When will the UK pay its way in the world?
In absolute terms it has been impossible for UK debts to fall. >> Now what was a little worrying was that the deficit on the current account reached 5.6% of GDP, or economic output, in the third quarter of 2013 and fell to just a little bit lower, 5.4%, in the fourth quarter. That 5.6% was - ahem - something of a milestone: it was the biggest quarterly deficit since records began in 1955. And it explains why the record aggregate indebtedness of the UK has been falling so slowly, and is still not much below 500% of GDP on the Mckinsey measure (though see my previous blog). [...] UK's - limp trading performance - for YEARS! ... COMPETING against BRICs, Europe, G8, ... now and in the future competing with MINT countries too ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MINT_countries ). [...] "We have not got forever to reconstruct our economy and become a bit more like the European export emperor, Germany."
UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  sovereign  crisis  private  consumer  bubble  jubilee  monetization  household  public  debtoverhang  monetisation  restructuring  austerity  current  account  deficit  economic  history  2014  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  public  policy  financial  repression  New  Normal  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  deflationary  productivity  output  gap  competitiveness  knowledge  worker  skill-biased  technological  change  skill  capital  skills  London  White-collar  Blue-collar  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  value  creation  Industrial  globalisation  globalization  competitive  advantage  comparative  advantage  21stcentury  BRIC  MINT  Europe  free  trade  Germany  exports  export 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Marketing Can No Longer Rely on the Funnel - Mark Bonchek , and Cara France - Harvard Business Review
We asked some of the leading marketers in the world — from companies like Google, Intuit, Sephora, SAP, Twitter, and Visa — to assess the relevance of the marketing funnel. What we found says as much about the future of business as it does about the future of marketing. [...] Consider all the members of the Nike+ running community who don’t own Nike products or the half million fans of Tesla’s Facebook page who don’t own a Tesla. Or consider companies where employees use their own devices or download their own software until IT purchases the enterprise version for the entire company. In today’s digital age, advocates aren’t necessarily customers. Marketers who think that advocacy comes after purchase are missing the new world of social influence. [...] [The solution is to shift the focus from the transaction to the relationship.] [Benefit when the] marketing is built right into the product. << Brand and Product awareness. [...] Products should be designed to market themselves.
advertisement  advertising  marketing  Sales  Funnel  Social  Media  e-commerce  Salesforce  affiliate  marketing  future  of  business  intent  consideration  advertisement  targeting  advertisement  re-targeting  Twitter  Facebook  Pinterest  Consumerism  consumerist  tastemakers  advocates  Evangelist  Sephora  engagement  conversion  customer  experience  sharing  currency  product  awareness  brand  awareness  Gary  Vaynerchuk  content  marketing  word  of  mouth  influencer  influence  context  content  value  creation  freemium  monetization  monetisation  business  model  customer  empowerment  customer  engagement  customer  acquisition  customer  retention  customer  service  customer  outreach  customer  amplification  marketers  ruin  everything  millennials  generationy  bullshit  detector  Google  AdSense  banner  ads  noise  home  screen  customer  relationship  non-linear  world  Personal  branding 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
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