asterisk2a + macroprudential + for   28

Ex-MPC member says rates will stay low until 2021 - BBC News
Blanchflower: Global economy "feels a little bit like 2008" Interest rates will likely fall further in Britain and remain at near record low levels until 2021, [...] Blanchflower described the backdrop to the committee's decision in March 2009 to cut rates to 0.5% as catastrophic. He said the MPC at the time had wished to avoid a death spiral. Britain was plunged into its deepest-ever recession in 2008 as confidence in banks collapsed and investment dried up. "We cut rates in November 2008 by 150 basis points (1.5%). It was clear that we should have cut by more but didn't because of the panic that it might have caused," he said. "It was absolutely clear that this (the financial crisis) was something we had not seen in a generation. We learned that the scale of the shock was enormous." [...] mortgage rates are 31% lower than before the crisis, while savers may have lost £106bn due to record low rates. //&! bbc.in/1YeqV87 &! bbc.in/1LGOxAf - central banks understated deflation pressure!
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  UK  global  economy  recovery  aggregate  demand  property  bubble  underinvestment  austerity  George  Osborne  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  mortgage  market  macroprudential  policy  Mark  Carney  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  subprime  car  loan  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  GFC  household  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  David  Blanchflower  Danny  Blanchflower  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  distortion  Super  Cycle  junk  bond  Gini  coefficient  deflationary  deflation  Taper  QT  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  BIS  ECB  Fed  BOJ  credit  bubble  PBOC  hot-money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Mervyn King: new financial crisis is 'certain' without reform of banks | Business | The Guardian
The former Bank of England governor says in his new book that imbalances in the global economy makes a crash inevitable [...] GFC was the fault of the financial system, not individual greedy bankers, in his new book, The End Of Alchemy: Money, Banking And The Future Of The Global Economy [...] “Without reform of the financial system, another crisis is certain, and the failure ... to tackle the disequilibrium in the world economy makes it likely that it will come sooner rather than later,” Lord King wrote. [...] global central banks were caught in a “prisoner’s dilemma” - unable to raise interest rates for fear of stifling the economic recovery, the newspaper reported. [... blame] broken financial system. [...] failure of a system, and the ideas that underpinned it, [...] “Only a fundamental rethink of how we, as a society, organise our system of money and banking will prevent a repetition //&! dailym.ai/21tPG5y
bank  crisis  banking  crisis  investment  banking  self-regulation  retail  banking  Greed  financial  product  regulation  regulators  City  of  London  George  Osborne  Mark  Carney  macroprudential  policy  property  bubble  austerity  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  economic  history  GFC  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  free  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  faultlines  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  distortion  financial  repression  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  China  Brazil  credit  bubble  2016  reflate  reflation  junk  bond  revolving  debt  household  debt  mortgage  market  consumer  debt  UK  IMF  OECD  credit  card  debt  car  loan  BOE  MervynKing  ECB  Fed  Europe  deflationary  deflation  Gini  coefficient  inequality  MarioDraghi  Taper  QT  bonuses  bonus  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  New  Normal  speculative  bubbles  Richard  Koo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Five issues that will shape the Northern Powerhouse - BBC News
[ white elephant! lol & the double standard of Google paying 2% tax vs small businesses full 18%+ and not getting investment, R&D loans ] Will Hull thrive or suffer if transport is radically improved to the eastern fringe of the Powerhouse? There's no way of telling. Some people think investment in skills, education and training would be a more certain way of improving productivity - and business leaders are keen to ensure that these key elements are not forgotten in the rush for steel and tarmac. I asked former CBI director-general John Cridland, who is now head of Transport for the North, if there was any certainty that spending billions on infrastructure would improve productivity. He agreed there was no proof, but urged people to take a leap of faith - like the Victorian engineers.
STEM  skills  gap  practical  skills  apprenticeships  underinvestment  productive  investment  Northern  Powerhouse  UK  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  productivity  output  gap  recovery  carbon  tax  renewable  energy  competitiveness  competitive  industrial  policy  Germany  corporate  tax  rate  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  conglomerate  multinational  HMRC  budget  deficit  dogma  ideology  austerity  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  added  value  value  creation  economic  history  property  bubble  distortion  HS2  Hinkley  Point  C  HS3  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  macroeconomic  policy  macroprudential  policy  zombie  banks  BOE  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Mark  Carney 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
This Letting Agent Admits The Housing Shortage Is Good News For Landlords - BuzzFeed News
[ Lord Adair Turner book & Richard Koo; banks tend 2 lend 2 property & land rather than productivity/businesses. risk averse, if the family cant pay the mortgage any more, than at least u have not lost all the money! less risky! Its also partly rentier behaviour of banks. // also BOE has to be concerned about future disposable income; rent & utilities eating up 50%-75% of income thus less for consumption! ] “Landlords’ balance sheets are looking healthier than at any point since 2014, and property investors are looking at an excellent rate of return from their portfolios.” Gill warned that changes to stamp duty announced in chancellor George Osborne’s Autumn Statement and due to take effect on 1 April – people selling buy-to-let investments will pay an extra 3% – were bad news for landlords. But overall, the “consistent and developing lack of housing for across all tenures, for a spiralling population” meant the level of demand for rental properties would not reduce, he said.
property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  macroprudential  policy  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  Housing  Crisis  social  affordable  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  aggregate  demand  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  policy  folly  policy  error  consumer  debt  household  debt  budget  deficit  recovery  mortgage  market  credit  bubble  GFC  bank  bailout  BOE  zombie  banks  rentier  rent-seeking  Richard  Koo  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  zombie  consumer  industrial  policy  economic  history  Mark  Carney  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  herding  herd  hunt  for  yield  leverage  margin  trading  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  VAR  CDO  CDS  risk  aversion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  inequality  UK  generational  contract  lost  generation  constituency  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  general  election  2015  general  election  2020  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What Really Caused the Crisis and What to Do About It - YouTube
"There are not perfect markets, and there is no perfect planner. [...] we will never arrive at perfect solutions. [...] market will never allocate perfectly ... [...] market will always tend to lend to property and land, and less into productive means (businesses = risk of 100 loss, land or property ... you have a loss when you sell it. << China, UK ) [...] not all credit is good credit. [...] need for macroprudential policy to dampen bubbles bc rate hikes could dampen normal non-speculative area of economy. ie loan to value limits [...] interest rate setting is blunt hammer that people though is the magic wand along the line of self-regulation, free market, neoliberalism and trickle-down [...] GFC can be traced back to the 60-70's - macroecon + micro with absurd assumptions (ie rational expectations, equilibriums, no bubbles) & math & pure theoretical base (no empirical analysis ie of what banks really do ie greed) = makes job of economist as policy advisor real easy.
bank  crisis  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  book  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  western  world  dogma  ideology  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  economic  history  credit  bubble  output  gap  productivity  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  asset  allocation  economics  investment  banking  zombie  banks  retail  banking  financial  product  CDS  CDO  hunt  for  yield  VAR  risk  aversion  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Glass-Steagall  self-regulation  regulators  regulation  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  arbitrage  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  BOE  zombie  consumer  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  corporations  NPL  junk  bond  realestate  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  equilibrium  disequilibrium  Economist  economists  Adair  Turner  hayek 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Help-to-buy loan scheme nets Treasury £213m in paper profit | Money | The Guardian
[ gov is not co-owner of private property! Make away with Nurse Bursaries and other gov support for education. But support the property price! by keeping supply always lower than demand. and use policy to increase demand w subsidies! where to put their savings! & subsidy for builders ] Rising house prices across much of England mean a government scheme to help buyers of newbuild property may have made more than £200m for the Treasury in its first two-and-a-half years. The help-to-buy equity loan scheme gives buyers an interest-free loan for five years in return for a percentage stake in their property. When the home is sold, the buyer returns the same percentage of the sale price, meaning that any fall or rise in house prices affects the return. Analysis by property firm Hometrack and shared with the Guardian suggests that a surge in house prices in some areas means the total value of homes bought through the scheme since its launch in April 2013 has increased by more than £1bn.
property  bubble  UK  speculative  bubbles  Housing  Crisis  affordable  social  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Save  budget  deficit  austerity  constituency  Party  Funding  babyboomers  BOE  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  distortion  financial  repression  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  fairness  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  NPL  subprime  Payday  Loans  car  loan  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Tories  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  Conservative  Party  nasty  short-termism  voter  turnout  disenfranchise  disenfranchised  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productive  investment  recovery  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  secular  stagnation  Privatisation  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  GFC  bank  bailout  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  welfare 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Economy concerns as household debt rises to £40bn in latest figures | Business | The Guardian
Families are expected to run up £40bn of debt this year, sparking fears about Britain’s economic recovery. [...] (OBR) forecasts have found that households have moved from a surplus of £67bn in 2010, the year the coalition took power, to a £40bn deficit this year. Unsustainable borrowing is on course to near the levels reached in the run-up to the 2008 financial crash, according to Labour. Seema Malhotra, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said: “George Osborne is relying on millions of British families going further into debt to hit his growth targets. [ as projected by economists, that household had to take up debt, shifting debt burden off the public balance sheet, when austerity plans were revealed together with LibDems, to meet growth targets/estimates, back then. same w decistions to increase student loans, convert grants into loan ie for nursing, remove allowances and grants. same w the green bank. shifting items off the balance sheet. and underinvestment. ]
economic  growth  austerity  trickle-down  economics  underinvestment  George  Osborne  nasty  party  Tories  Conservative  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  Student  Maintenance  Grant  Education  Maintenance  Allowance  debt  loan  debt  loan  Student  Bubble  generation  rent  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  policy  Liberal  Democrats  household  debt  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  credit  card  debt  credit  card  car  loan  Precariat  precarious  work  child  tax  credit  working  tax  credit  tax  credit  wage  stagnation  income  growth  inequality  Gini  coefficient  rat  race  status  anxiety  status  symbol  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  ZIRP  NIRP  mortgage  market  property  hunt  for  yield  QE  New  Normal  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  debt  private  debt  Privatisation 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Homelessness figures: Nearly 100,000 children in England 'homeless' - BBC News
Nearly 100,000 children in England are living in temporary accommodation after being made homeless, new figures show. // &! More & more student start work after graduation in low pay jobs not requiring a diploma, due to current job market/job creation situation in UK! Not hitting 21k repayment threshold - bbc.in/1OU0K3H - OBR show fewer are likely to start paying than was expected when the policy was introduced, [...] freezing the loan repayment threshold - alongside other changes such as replacing maintenance grants for poorer students with loans - will significantly increase the cost of going to university. It says this risks undermining pledges by successive governments to improve social mobility, as well as raising uncertainty in students' minds over the terms of their borrowing. //&! Higher education cuts 'risk NI being left behind' - bbc.in/1gZMrgj //&! Doctors warn Tories not to cut free school meals (child poverty, food poverty) bbc.in/1LewQrn
UK  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  affordable  housing  social  housing  Gini  coefficient  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  poverty  trap  child  poverty  food  poverty  austerity  Policy  Makers  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Tories  Conservative  Party  housing  market  Crisis  housing  benefit  benefits  welfare  state  social  safety  net  bank  bailout  fairness  social  cohesion  minority  constituency  error  folly  babyboomers  social  tension  Toff  Establishment  Privileged  Entitlement  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  excess  reserves  mortgage  market  Buy-to-Let  Right  to  Buy  Buy  to  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  inequality  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  macroprudential  macroeconomic  microeconomics  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  debtoverhang  household  debt  recovery  2015  consumer  debt  debt  servitude  private  debt  Payday  Loans  Student  Loan  Millennials  generationy  secular  stagnation  low  income  prevention  job  security  job  market  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  income  mobility  social  mobility  downward  mobility  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  University  vocational  education  professional  education  Maintenance  Student  Maintenance  child  Allowanc 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England concerns over buy-to-let boom - BBC News
The growing buy-to-let property market in the UK could post a threat to wider financial stability, a Bank of England committee has said. [...] Buy-to-let mortgage lending had the potential to "amplify" a housing boom and bust, the Bank's Financial Stability Committee (FPC) concluded. Lending in this sector has risen by 40% since 2008, the FPC said. It stopped short of suggesting any intervention by government or regulators at this stage. "The FPC is alert to the rapid growth of the market and potential developments in underwriting standards," the committee said.
Buy-to-Let  Right  to  Buy  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  BOE  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  distortion  mortgage  market  NPL  Boom  and  Bust  irrational  exuberance  rent-seeking  rentier  generation  rent  Buy  to  Tories  Conservative  Party  Makers  Mark  Carney  FOMO  underinvestment  productive  investment  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  excess  reserves  zombie  banks  investment  banking  retail  banking  London  Westminster  Career  Politicians  recovery  GFC  No  Representation  Millennials  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  infrastructure  investment  George  Osborne  constituency  babyboomers 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Fed chief Yellen says US rate rise still likely this year - BBC News
The US remains "on track" for an interest rate rise this year, Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen has said. The central bank head said as long as inflation was stable and the US economy was strong enough to boost jobs, the conditions would be right for a rise. Despite expectations of a rise this month, the Fed held rates, in part due to fears about global economic growth. Ms Yellen, speaking at the University of Massachusetts, said US economic prospects "generally appear solid". Speaking a week after the Fed delayed that long-anticipated hike, she said she and other policymakers did not expect recent global economic and financial market developments to significantly affect the central bank's policy. Much recent inflationary weakness is due to special and likely temporary factors, such as a strong dollar and low oil prices, she said. //&! http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-25/janet-yellen-s-flip-flop-confuses-markets
Janet  Yellen  Fed  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  secular  stagnation  western  world  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  QT  petrodollar  Petroleum  Industry  commodity  prices  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  Brazil  Russia  India  BIS  Richard  Koo  global  economy  global  trade  2015  BOE  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  household  debt  consumer  debt  private  debt  credit  card  car  loan  Student  deleveraging  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  growth  low  income  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  job  market  labour  economics  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  competitive  competition  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  recovery  fiscal  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  asset  bubble  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  Super  Rich  1%  hot-money  currency-war  currency  war  currency  debasement  Dollar  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  distortion  irrational  exuberance  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  USA  UK 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The other generation rent: meet the people flatsharing in their 40s | Money | The Guardian
Number of flatsharers aged 45-54 has risen by 300% in five years, figures show, amid soaring house prices, especially in London [...] Photographer Alex Forsey, 44, is typical of the new generation of flatsharers in their 40s. He recently moved into a house in Clapton, east London, with three other people in their 20s to 40s. He said: “The most affordable one-bed flat I was shown was £1,200 a month, and it was worse than a squat. The agent tried telling me it was a bargain.” //&! ability to get interest only loan is unbelievable.
generation  rent  London  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  UK  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  alternative  investment  Buy  to  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  excess  reserves  mortgage  market  2015  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  BOE  NPL  subprime  cost  of  living  cost  of  entry  living  standard  living  spaces  standard  of  living  air  pollution  noise  pollution  city  living  urbanisation  economies  of  agglomeration 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Borrowing up amid interest rates speculation - BBC News
Mortgage brokers said that the relatively low mortgage rates on offer could be a response to a mismatch of supply and demand. "The mortgage market remains over supplied with lenders having more money to lend than there are people looking for home loans. This means criteria will have to loosen and rates will have to remain low to ensure lenders hit their volume targets," said Mark Harris, chief executive of SPF Private Clients. "For many, the main issue is not so much finding a cheap mortgage rate but being able to prove affordability to satisfy the lender and meet [the regulator's] tighter criteria."
property  bubble  mortgage  market  distortion  affordable  housing  housing  market  Crisis  UK  social  housing  generation  rent  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  debtoverhang  household  debt  consumer  debt  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  private  debt  2015  Taper  BOE  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  excess  reserves  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  subprime  macroprudential  policy 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England may cut rates, says chief economist - BBC News
Softening employment figures and weakening surveys on manufacturing and construction output suggested growth in the UK could slow in the second half of the year and inflation might not pick up as expected. Furthermore, problems in emerging markets could be a drag on UK growth and the headwinds from those economies were unlikely to abate any time soon, Mr Haldane added. //&! In a wide-ranging speech that called on central bankers to think more radically to fend off the next downturn – including the notion of abolishing cash – Haldane warned the UK was not ready for higher borrowing costs. He described recent events in Greece and China as "the latest leg of what might be called a three-part crisis trilogy."
China  sovereign  debt  crisis  European  Union  BRIC  credit  bubble  2015  headwinds  Fed  mandate  BOE  bond  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  QT  British  Pound  Sterling  Dollar  petrodollar  FX  reserves  excess  reserves  liquidity  trap  GFC  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  Pact  Schuldenbremse  George  Osborne  budget2015  David  Cameron  industrial  policy  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Research  competitiveness  competitive  differentiate  differentiation  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  business  confidence  business  investment  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  Niall  Ferguson  secular  stagnation  western  world  deflationary  deflation  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  education  policy  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  tax  code  corporate  tax  rate  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  monetary  monetary  debt  unconve 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
El-Erian: This Is Not 1998 or 2008 - YouTube
it is a repricing. a correction. prices got too far away (reflation of equity & co through ZIRP, NIRP, QE, speeches, plus hunt for yield & FOMO). It just happened to be China being the trigger, the wake-up call - very loud wake-up call - bc of its economic size and heft. (taper talks 2015 that made equity already nervous, and bond holders too, was too timid). Reality check. // Was it justified, yes. // In the long-run, we are all dead. And in the long-run things will, eventually, correct itself. // People may take now into account a new normal, lower interest rate environment, lower global growth, lower yields, lower inflationary pressures, lower dividend payments, more work that corporates (crony capitalism) need to do to squeeze out that earnings growth especially in the western world. inequality - low wage growth/stagnation - less discretionary spending on non-essential items (in the western world). & "realization that policy tools were less effective". &! bv.ms/1NFsFUn
reflate  reflation  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  secular  stagnation  New  Normal  asset  bubble  bubble  bond  bubble  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  recovery  UK  USA  Europe  dogma  ideology  austerity  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  Richard  Koo  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  savings  rate  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  participation  rate  unemployment  imbalance  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  STEM  industrial  policy  Manufacturing  competitiveness  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  commodity  business  commoditization  borderless  deflationary  deflation  Software  Is  Eating  The  Marketplace  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  mobile  first  Smartphone  Revolution  2.0  energy  price  Oil  price  inflation  expectation  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  productive  investment  IMF  OECD  developed  world  emerging  emerging  growth  investment  midd 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's currency devaluation could spark 'tidal wave of deflation' | Business | The Guardian
[3rd day in a row Yuan/RMB is devalued by PBOC (13/08/15)] “We’re all going to feel it: we’ll feel it through commodities; we’ll feel it through manufactured goods exports, not just from China but from everywhere that has to compete with it; and we’ll feel it through wages.” [...] China could be willing to let the yuan depreciate by as much as 25% over the next five years – “stone by stone, step by step” – in an attempt to restore the export-led growth that was such a winning formula [...] China [may be] trying to protect itself against the period of financial instability [following Taper by western central banks Fed/BOE] [or counter $ recent rise 21% & peg against $] [or fight home grown recession with kitchen sink] // &! bloom.bg/1gC8FFe &! bloom.bg/1WkMfZZ &! bloom.bg/1hy7O9l &! bloom.bg/1NpE4FI &! bv.ms/1IKB3fX // what is the new normal 4 growth in this global economy, competitive = keeping prices low = inflation & low interest rate pressure.
yuan  RMB  PBOC  China  devaluation  deflationary  deflation  UK  USA  Europe  Exportweltmeister  competition  competitive  competitiveness  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  secular  stagnation  western  world  globalisation  globalization  commodities  commodity  business  commoditization  Germany  Asia  Latin  America  borderless  flat  world  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  wage  pressure  productivity  output  gap  recovery  GFC  economic  history  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  Great  Moderation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  IMF  SDR  currency  war  disinflation  inflation  wage  inflation  Japan  Australia  Oil  price  energy  price  Developing  Frontier  Markets  Forex  USD  British  Pound  Euro  Yen  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  Bank  of  Canada  asset  bubble  macroprudential  policy  asset  allocation  productive  investment  underinvestment  business  investment  2015 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
UK interest rate rises - waiting for lift-off | Business | The Guardian
In 2018 – by when, bear in mind, most of the work of austerity is expected to have been done – Miles calculates that fiscal consolidation will still drag interest rates downwards by more than 0.75% compared to what would otherwise be the case. This is one of the factors explaining the (commonly held) assumption that interest rates will approach a “new normal” over the next few years that is likely to be about half as high as the 5% that prevailed pre-financial crisis. Even in the second half of the parliament this “fiscal headwind” will still be blowing strong. [...] The case for introducing more transparency isn’t mere technocratic trimming. The balance struck between monetary and fiscal policy has big consequences. There are obvious distributional implications (all else equal, mortgage holders win; savers lose). There are ramifications too for the capital allocation process, the current account, and the risk of an asset-bubble. The list goes on: the macro-mix matters.
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Sorry to burst your bubble | The Economist
bit.ly/1IfX0s9 // "According to two new papers, the crucial variable that separates relatively harmless frenzies from disastrous ones is debt." // see China Stock Market leverage pop mid 2015 - with its huge rise in margin debt trading ... money which was flowing out of the property market into the Stock Market // // &! so if it is about debt - UK mortgage market & consumer/private debt of all kind (loans and credit card debt) does qualify as they took up what was cut by austerity. Plus the Supply Demand distortion, with new builds/project at a decades lowest. // Question for China. The China problem. Can they make their system sustainable before it will crush everyone. // The most obvious is China. But the next one will be different & greater than all came before. Period. Still, UK had not a housing bubble collapse on its own making. Only through endogenous circumstances. UK recession as UK economy runs mostly on consumer sector & debt) bit.ly/1OpClSO bit.ly/1wQITjb bit.ly/1SycLtY
leverage  debtoverhang  equity  bubble  regulation  self-regulation  regulators  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  household  debt  private  debt  economic  history  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  Greenspan-Put  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  margin  trading  margin  debt  asset  liquidity  economic  damage  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  mortgage  market  UK  credit  card  housing  market  property  bubble  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  sustainability  sustainable  NPL  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  economic  model  economic  irrational  exuberance  macroeconomic  policy  economic  growth  debt  monetisation  reflation  debt  monetization  consumerist  consumerism  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  financial  financial  crisis  GFC  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  baddebt  non-performing  loan 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Yellen sees growing confidence in US - BBC News
'we will raise rates as economy can take it.' meaning if economy can't take it and a bubble is staring you in the face, they won't use rates (or even any other monetary policy tool), lets not even start on macroprudential policy under the current state of Congress ... to reign in an obvious bubble. Richard Koo argues, western world still in balance sheet recession. and shiller argues we are at risk to suffer another financial crisis and we have no tool left to fight a downward drag, to quote BIS // The chair of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, has suggested there's growing confidence in the US economy. And after more than six years of near-zero interest rates - it seems a rate rise is likely sometime this year. But facing Congress, the Fed chair faced some tough questions from politicians wondering why the increase was taking so long. // &! youtu.be/zn5zt1XzX6g - Fed Chair Janet Yellen's Testimony in Two Minutes
Taper  Fed  2015  2016  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  macroprudential  policy  monetary  policy  GFC  dot.com  irrational  exuberance  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  debtoverhang  consumer  debt  credit  card  household  debt  private  debt  BIS  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  monetary  stimulus  bond  bubble  China  equity  bubble  global  economy  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube
// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?
BIS  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  bond  bubble  Student  Loan  debt  debt  regulation  oversight  governance  BOE  simplicity  incomplete  information  academia  academics  economist  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  economic  history  systemicrisk  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  financial  market  sustainable  sustainability  mortgage  market  UK  USA  China  speculative  speculation  contagion  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  credit  boom  financial  cycle  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  political  economy  political  theory  centralbanks  economic  damage  economic  model  Richard  Koo  animal  spirit  austerity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  robertshiller  Robert  Shiller  ideology  dogma  sovereign  debt  crisis  populism  corporate  state  manufactured  consent  Lügenpresse  BOJ  Fed  currency  war  currency  debasement  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  Japan  hunt  for  yield  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The escape from the balance sheet recession and the QE trap: An interview with Richard Koo - YouTube
"deflationary" is a symptom of balance sheet recession, deleveraging, debtoverhang ... of the private sector, corporate sector (& public gov sector) (to repair balance sheet). inflation of price of goods 2 live is still existent. you cant eat laptops. inflation is still present. actions of private sector, corporate sector to repair balance sheet (and even public sector, all three together) is deflationary. // UK! interesting is that consumer still borrows ie via credit card and mortgages. // question is how long UK can run such a big current account deficit. somebody has to pay for it, if not the gov with debt, then it has to be the private sector. as long as it can serve debt payments, as long as it has wage growth (increase of productivity, closing of output gap). But job creation during recovery was mostly Service Sector Jobs & self-employment. Not added value STEM. // corporate sector will not, in the long-run, pay for current account deficit w debt. &! youtu.be/EhYvaMc3f44
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Inside Out London - The Great Property Race
London, one of the most expensive places on earth to live. // Inside Out London - The Great Property Race - Mark Jordan joins first-time buyers and cash-rich Chinese investors as they race to buy homes in the capital's fast, furious and often cruel market. >> London-mania, speculation, ASIAN individual investors leave flats empty & sell them again after 12-18m after much appreciation of value. Buying just based on the prospect & not one stone put down or even speculating on green fields planning permission 5 years down the road. Insane. // &! Existing owners building owners are in a Millionaire Basement Wars - bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05r86yg // Think about all that money being invested long-term into productive investments (STEM) creating current & future opportunity. Lowering the output & productivity gap of UK! Once, a high rise is finished, there are no jobs there that generate tax income from revenue/profit generation - that of a worker or company of the 21st century.
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april 2015 by asterisk2a
David Blanchflower: Do not be fooled – growth and living standards under the Coalition have still been abysmal - David Blanchflower - Business Comment - The Independent
Over the entire six-year period [ 2009 - 2013] real earnings in the UK fell by 6.5 per cent, and by 5.9 per cent between 2010 and 2012, and only Greece (minus 23 per cent) was lower. Real earnings growth was positive over this entire period in France (+5 per cent); Germany (+4 per cent); Japan (+1 per cent) and the US (+1 per cent).
greatrecession  UK  GFC  output  gap  productivity  stagflation  secular  stagnation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  monetary  transmission  mechanism  property  bubble  indusrty  London  finance  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  lost  decade  lost  generation  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  No  Representation  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  living  standard  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  class  warfare  Toff  private  education  OECD  BOE  unconventional  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  education  policy  Public  economies  of  agglomeration  economic  history  Mark  Carney 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Is there a London property bubble? - YouTube
--- outside money driving up prices in the city and outer suburbia // first time buyers locked out !!! - inequality because buying is unaffordable and locked into renting
economies  of  agglomeration  London  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  hunt  for  yield  macroprudential  policy  urban  planning  urbanisation  city  living  quality  of  life  pollution  faultlines  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  standard  of  living  well  being 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - UK house prices see 10.2% annual rise, says the Halifax
'Upward trend' This is the first time since September 2007 that the annual change has gone above 10%, according to the Halifax. It accelerated from an 8.8% rise in June. "While supply remains low, housing demand continues to be supported by a continuing economic recovery, growth in employment, improving consumer confidence and low mortgage rates," said Stephen Noakes, mortgages director at the Halifax.
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august 2014 by asterisk2a
Bank of England’s 'slack' approach leaves economy at risk - Telegraph
There were 115,000 UK housing completions in 2013, almost a record peacetime low, compared with the 240,000 new homes needed each year just to meet the rise in household numbers hard-wired into our demography. This disgraceful shortage, and the government’s now long-past-its-sell-by-date Help-to-Buy scheme, is the reason prices are up 9.1pc across the UK over the last year and 17.1pc higher in London. And where house price inflation goes, economy-wide inflation eventually follows. While agreeing with Carney’s house-building analysis, I don’t agree the Bank can’t do more to rein in a market now in danger of spiralling out of control. [...] [A] development we’ll live to regret. +++ IMF warns UK government over housing bubble risk --- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27731567 +++ PRODUCTIVITY REMAINS WEAK. << skill-biased technological change, capital skills, skill, skills, knowledge worker, White-collar Worker, Blue-collar Worker, workforce, Mobile Creative, Mobile Creatives,
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
Dax knackt 10.000 Punkte: Rekord wegen billigen Gelds von EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Erstmals überspringt der Dax die Marke von 10.000 Punkten. Das beweist erneut, wie sehr der deutsche Leitindex vom billigen Geld der Notenbank abhängig ist - und wie schnell die gute Stimmung an der Börse vorbei sein kann. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/dax-steigt-ueber-10-000-punkte-auf-neuen-rekordstand-a-972849.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/geldanlage-bei-niedrigzinsen-gold-immobilien-einen-jaguar-a-973671.html ""Wohin also jetzt mit den Ersparnissen?"" +++ Spekulationsblasen: Wirtschaftsweiser warnt vor Gefahren der Niedrigzinsen - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ezb-wirtschaftsweiser-wieland-warnt-vor-spekulationsblasen-a-975400.html +++ Niedrigzinsen: Schäuble befürchtet Immobilienblase in Deutschland - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/zinsen-schaeuble-befuerchtet-immobilienblase-in-deutschland-a-976154.html
asset  bubble  Betongold  Beton  Gold  ZIRP  QE  OMT  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  asset  allocation  property  bubble  London  PIGS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity-trap  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  hunt  for  yield  New  Normal  financial  repression  2014  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  banking  union  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  macroprudential  policy  Politics  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  austerity  fiscal  policy  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  faultlines  imbalance  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  lost  decade  lost  generation  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  Wolfgang  Schäuble 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Mini-Wohnung in London mit hoher Miete alarmiert Behörden - SPIEGEL ONLINE
London is a different country than UK ex-London. PERIOD. As is SF, LA, NY compared to USA as a whole. UK needs support for 2nd London, ie Manchester surroundings. That is why BBC moved parts of its operations to Manchester, creating the MediaCity. It was a politically motivated and macroprudential influenced decision as well as microeconomic decision for BBC Operations (lower wage demands, lower operating cost). ""Für durchschnittliche Mieter dürfte es nur ein schwacher Trost sein, dass in London auch die Superreichen inzwischen Mondpreise für Immobilien zahlen müssen. So hat ein privater Käufer für eine Penthouse-Wohnung im vornehmen Londoner Stadtteil Knightsbridge kürzlich 140 Millionen Pfund (knapp 171 Millionen Euro) bezahlt. Angesichts solcher Zahlen warnte sogar der stellvertretende Direktor der Bank of England vor einer gefährlichen Blase: Das Preisniveau auf dem Grundstücksmarkt stehe in krassem Gegensatz zur derzeitigen Schwäche der britischen Wirtschaft, sagte Jon Cunliffe.
London  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  hunt  for  yield  2014  monetary  policy  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  macroprudential  policy  BOE  faultlines  economies  of  agglomeration  structural  imbalance  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  urban  planning  urbanisation  asset  bubble  recovery  UK  microeconomic  policy  microeconomies  microeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  macroeconomics  economic  history  BBC  MediaCity  Manchester 
june 2014 by asterisk2a

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