asterisk2a + lostgeneration   71

Blackrock-Vize Hildebrand kritisiert europäische Behörden - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Hildebrand: Nein, dafür sehe ich keine Anzeichen. Aber was mich schon besorgt, ist das Muster, dass frappantes Fehlverhalten europäischer Firmen immer wieder von amerikanischen Behörden aufgedeckt wird. Das scheint mir das wahre Problem zu sein. Ich denke da nicht nur an VW, sondern auch an die Banken oder an die Fifa. [...] Die Amerikaner dagegen sind das Problem schon 2009 angegangen, und die Banken sind schnell wieder gesundet. In Europa hat man es unter den Teppich gekehrt. [...] Europa hat zwei Probleme, und ein wesentliches davon ist ein Nachfrageproblem: Die Wirtschaft ist nicht ausgelastet, auch die Arbeitslosigkeit ist nach wie vor zu hoch. Und die Inflation liegt nahe null. [...] Europa hat auch ein Strukturproblem. Arbeits- und Produktmärkte sind überreguliert. [ Re Credit Bubble ] Niemand weiß genau, was geschieht, wenn diese Politik einmal umgekehrt wird.
VW  bank  bailout  FIFA  corporate  scandal  Volkswagen  sovereign  debt  crisis  too  big  to  bail  Grexit  European  Union  secular  stagnation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  deregulation  accountability  white-collar  crime  banking  investment  banking  retail  banking  recovery  MarioDraghi  ECB  NIRP  ZIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  QE  GFC  economic  history  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  fiscal  monetary  Brussels  lost  decade  lostgeneration  lost  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  austerity  Pact  Schuldenbremse  underinvestment  productive  investment  ageing  population  demographic  bubble  squeezed  middle  class  emerging  middle  class  discretionary  spending  Sozialer  Abstieg  income  distribution  disposable  income  Brexit  credit  bubble  BRIC  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  Niall  Ferguson 
november 2015 by asterisk2a
Is This What A Bursting Bubble Looks Like? - YouTube
- bear market, not a 2008/09 decline, more like a lost decade of little productivity growth and very very slow closing of the still existing output gap. - companies benefit form technological progress (accelerating); get more done with less people. +++ https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/posts/10154276062445062
asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  NIRP  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  Fed  ECB  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  2014  lost  decade  productivity  output  gap  G20  G  Zero  G8  Europe  USA  UK  complexity  unknown  unknowns  Taper  deflation  deflationary  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  middle  class  skill-biased  technological  change  technological  progress  knowledge  worker  knowledge  economy  economic  history  history  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  global  imbalances  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  debt  jubilee  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  default  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  signal  vs  noise  noise  dysfunctional  marketplace  efficiencies  market  dynamics  market  intervention  financial  market  market  failure  market-failure  lost  generation  lostdecade  lostgeneration  currency  debasement  fiat  currency  fiat  money 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Thomas Piketty: on tour with the 'rock-star economist' -video | Business | theguardian.com
Thomas Piketty. funny thing, at this meeting in min 3. no handshake, no spreading germs. less sick days. ;) ... +++ Faisal Islam on The Default Line - video interview - http://www.theguardian.com/business/video/2013/aug/16/faisal-islam-default-line-video || + Michael Lewis: the stock market is rigged – video interview - http://www.theguardian.com/business/video/2014/apr/30/michael-lewis-the-stock-market-is-rigged-video-interview ||
Thomas  Piketty  Robert  Reich  Book  documentary  Gini  coefficient  post-recession  post-crisis  GVC  greatrecession  greatdepression  recovery  2014  income  inequality  income  mobility  coldprogression  kalte  Progression  social  mobility  low-income  income  growth  income  distribution  tax  free  income  disposable  income  crony  capitalism  greed  Super  Rich  corporate  governance  journalism  journalismus  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  economic  history  long-term  thinking  accountability  governance  public  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  policy-makers  lostdecade  lostgeneration  long-term  unemployment  underemployed  structural  unemployment  youth  unemployment  unemployment  Europe  USA  UK  sovereign  debt  crisis  democracy  inequality  Faisal  Islam  generational  contract  Environmental  Movement  disaster  Millennials  generationy  babyboomers  HFT  WallStreet  toobigtofail 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Student loan sell-off 'won't change repayments'
The proportion of loans not repaid - for instance because graduates do not earn enough to reach the threshold for repayment - was at one stage forecast to be 28%, but is now running closer to 40%. Mr Willetts told MPs that the difference was because earnings had failed to increase at the level expected - which meant that repayment levels had also been reduced. The most recent official figures on student loans, grants and awards, from November 2013, show that two months into the 2013-14 academic year more than £11bn had been paid to more than 990,000 students. On average, for 2012-13, students borrowed a tuition fee loan of £4,720, which is likely to rise as more students at university pay the higher level of fees introduced in 2012. In addition, students on average borrowed £3,750 each in maintenance loans.
StudentLoans  Student  Loan  Bubble  studentdebt  lostgeneration  lostdecade  Higher  Education  formal  business  UK  income  mobility  income  growth  income  inequality  income  distribution  policy  folly  political  folly  political  error  policy  error  fiscal  policy 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
Wie Europa Schulden loswerden kann - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[Rogoff & Reinhart advocating financial repression] [...] [Because Austerity didn't work.] Tatsächlich habe die europäische Wirtschaftspolitik - die Haushaltsdefizite senkt und Strukturreformen für mehr Wachstum durchführt - recht wenig getan, um den Schuldenberg wirklich zu verringern. Die Politik könnte die Last für die nächsten Jahre sogar verschlimmert haben, sagen viele Volkswirte. Die Sparpolitik hat das Wachstum überraschend stark beeinträchtigt. Während die Hinweise darauf, dass die Strukturreformen tatsächlich die Wirtschaft beflügeln, eher überschaubar ausfallen. Stattdessen sinken Einkommen, Gewinne und Steuereinnahmen, was die Schuldenlast immer schwerer erträglich macht.
debt  servicing  sovereign  debt  crisis  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  Europe  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  liquidity-trap  QE  KennethRogoff  liberal  economic  reform  economic  history  MarioDraghi  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  youth  unemployment  austerity  IMF  Japan  UK  USA  budget  deficit  France  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  New  Normal  PIMCO  Mohamed  El-Erian  debt  jubilee  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  private  debt  public  debt  household  debt  carmenreinhart  WallStreet  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  communication  babyboomers  haircut  PIGS  toobigtofail  TBTF  Richardkoo 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Die Gefahren des Jahres 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Beide Seiten haben Grund zu Pessimismus. Die strukturkonservative Bundeskanzlerin sieht mit Schrecken, dass Frankreich, Spanien und Italien keineswegs geneigt sind, deutsch zu werden. Euro-föderale Kritiker wie ich sind darüber enttäuscht, dass es weder eine Fiskalunion noch eine echte Bankenunion geben wird. Für uns ist das, was letzte Woche beschlossen wurde, keine Bankenunion, sondern nur ein schlechter Witz. Jedes Land bleibt für seinen eigenen Bankensektor verantwortlich. Das vorrangige ökonomische Ziel, die Risiken von Banken und Staaten zu trennen, ist dahin. Stattdessen ist die Bankenunion nur noch ein komplizierter administrativer Prozess.
Europe  europeanunion  banking  union  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  austerity  2013  2014  France  Spain  Italy  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  Japan  economic  history  history  Angela  Merkel  political  folly  political  error  FrancoisHollande  policy  error  policy  folly  ECB  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richardkoo  reflation  deflationary  deflation  inflation  ZIRP  QE  LTRO  unintended  consequences  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  unconventional  monetary  policy 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
EZB hält Leitzins auf historischem Tiefstand - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Trotz der niedrigen Zinsen kommt das billige Geld derzeit nicht bei Unternehmen und Haushalten an. Vor allem in Südeuropa ist die Kreditvergabe weiter rückläufig. Um das zu ändern, wird im EZB-Rat über den Einsatz unkonventioneller Instrumente nachgedacht. Dazu gehören zum Beispiel negative Zinsen für Einlagen der Banken der EZB, aber auch neue langfristige Finanzspritzen.
liquidity-trap  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  system  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  LTRO  OMT  negative  real  interest  rate  deflationary  deflation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  unintended  consequences  complexity  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  PIGS  recovery  austerity  liberal  economic  reform  trust  trustagent  confidence  policy  error  policy  folly  political  folly  political  error  economic  history  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  divergence  Super  Cycle  lostdecade  lostgeneration  stagflation  stagnation  secular  stagnation  Japan 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Worrying trends for the UK economy
In other words, the record amount of private debt, which has just reached £1.43 trillion, points to how borrowing has fuelled consumption. As we saw from the crash five years ago when debt was lower than now, debt-fuelled consumption isn't a sustainable or reliable source of growth. [...] Could the UK be facing what the US economist Larry Summers has described as America's "secular stagnation". It's a worry that the ageing population and a slower growth of the labour force mean a slower growing economy.
GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  UK  2013  economic  history  recovery  austerity  deflationary  deflation  inflation  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  output-gap  productivity  larrysummers  stagflation  stagnation  secular  cycle  Japan  lostdecade  lostgeneration  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  spare  capacity 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
This short-term thinking will lead to huge long-term damage - MoneyWeekMoneyWeek
Global acting Companies - steered by Wall Street and EPS (earnings per shares) - are not incentivised to invest into the future of the company, but to keep Wall Street happy till the next quarter and thus keeping their job.
stakeholder  unemployment  lostgeneration  complexity  incentive  short-term  thinking  shareholder  Great  Moderation  output-gap  unintended  consequences  investment  corporate  investment  ZIRP  EPS  WallStreet  zombie  corporations  financial  incentive  lostdecade  share  buyback  corporate  governance 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Zinstief kostet deutsche Sparer laut neuer Postbank-Studie Milliarden - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die extrem niedrigen Zinsen in Europa kosten deutsche Sparer offenbar Milliarden: Nach Berechnungen der Postbank verlieren die Sparvermögen bei Banken in Deutschland allein in diesem Jahr real rund 14 Milliarden Euro an Wert, wie die "Bild"-Zeitung unter Berufung auf die Studie berichtet.
monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  New  Normal  monetary  transmission  mechanism  babyboomers  liquidity-trap  BOE  banking  crisis  ECB  BOJ  monetary  system  bank  crisis  lostdecade  debtoverhang  NIRP  2013  Fed  lostgeneration  financial  repression  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  centralbanks  balance  sheet  recession 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Ökonomen starten Aufruf zur Unterstützung der EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Das sehen allerdings nicht alle Ökonomen so. Ifo-Präsident Sinn jedenfalls reagierte verhalten auf den Aufruf: "Niemand bestreitet, dass sich die Kapitalmärkte beruhigen lassen, wenn man den Käufern der südlichen Staatspapiere mit Hilfe des OMT kostenlosen Versicherungsschutz anbietet", sagte er SPIEGEL ONLINE. Eine solche Lösung sei zwar "für Schuldner und Gläubiger gleichermaßen attraktiv", allerdings nicht für die Steuerzahler der bislang "noch gesunden Länder Europas". Diese müssten am Ende die Verluste der EZB tragen.
monetary  policy  complexity  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  deflation  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  policy  error  lostdecade  policy  folly  QE  LTRO  OMT  NIRP  2013  lostgeneration  economic  history  PIGS  debt  monetisation  political  error  creditcrunch  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  inflation  debt  monetization 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
What Is A "Liquidity Trap" And Why Is Bernanke Caught In It? | Zero Hedge
"The real concern for investors, and individuals, is the actual economy. We are likely experiencing more than just a 'soft patch' currently despite the mainstream analysts' rhetoric to the contrary. There is clearly something amiss within the economic landscape and the ongoing decline of inflationary pressures longer term is likely telling us just that. The big question for the Fed is how to get themselves out of the 'liquidity trap' they have gotten themselves into without cratering the economy, and the financial markets, in the process. As we said recently this is the same question that Japan is trying to figure out as well." >> Tim Geithner once said in an agressive clear tone on that question 'the US is not Japan.'
monetary  policy  complexity  asset  bubble  unintended  consequences  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  BOE  ECB  deflation  BOJ  Structural  Impediments  lostdecade  QE  debtoverhang  NIRP  lostgeneration  economic  history  fiscal  policy  Debt  Super  Cycle  imbalance  austerity  ZIRP  USA  timgeithner  deleveraging  long-term  unemployment  deflationary  Richardkoo  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
The Swedish riots: What really happened?
Various studies have shown that statistics such as these can cause serious problems. Dr Arnold Goldstein, author of The Psychology of Group Aggression, wrote that people often participate in a “mob” due to a feeling of dispossession, “the belief that others are climbing up the economic ladder while oneself is not, or the belief that one’s own earlier economic gains are being lost.” Meanwhile in a 2011 paper entitled “It’s the Local Economy, Stupid! Geographic Wealth Dispersion and Conflict Outbreak Location”  a group of Norwegian academics found that civil conflicts are more likely to occur in areas with low absolute income with large departures from the national average, regardless of whether the country’s per capita GDP is high overall. Unsurprisingly, considering the areas where the riots happened, in Sweden, median household income for non-European immigrants is 36 per cent lower than for native Swedes. 
unemployment  Swedish  Model  society  lostgeneration  economic  history  UK  riot  demonstration  generationy  youth  unemployment  Gini-coefficient  identity  immigration  income  inequality  millenials  occupywallstreet  civil  society  inequality  national  identity  Sweden 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Fotos von Kilian Foerster: Spaniens verlorene Generation - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Keine Arbeit, keine Perspektive, keine Hoffnung - in Spanien wächst die Generación Cero heran. Der Fotograf Kilian Foerster hat Jugendliche in Madrid fotografiert, die unter den Folgen der Wirtschaftskrise leiden.
austerity  greatdepression  2013  society  GFC  lostgeneration  Spain  human  tragedy  property  bubble  Generación  Cero  greatrecession  youth  unemployment 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
UBS CIO Warns Of Japanese "Abegeddon" Scenario | Zero Hedge
With Nikkei 225 futures having faded their European morning bounce and pressuring back towards the 20% 'bear market' correction levels once again, it seems the 'stampede' is out of growth-expectation-driven equities as JGBs are bid for now. That bid (no matter how hard the BoJ tries) is unlikely to last if the doubt grows as Japan's debt-to-GDP would rise above 300% (from 226% currently) and the 10Y JGB yield could approach 5%!
QE  monetary  policy  2013  Politics  lostgeneration  inflation  targeting  monetary  theory  stagflation  reflation  debt  monetisation  structural  imbalance  ZIRP  BOJ  monetary  system  inflation  Abenomics  debt  monetization  Japan  lostdecade  policy  error  policy  folly 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Are Japanese Banks On The Verge Of Insolvency? | Zero Hedge
The inability of the BoJ to 'control' Japanese interest rates (JGB rates spiking unprecedentedly day after day) has put the banking system in a lot of trouble. As we explained recently the banks appeared to initially 'hedge' their huge JGB positions but now appear to recognize that first out wins and are reducing exposure overall (YTD -3.7% according to local data). [...] According to BOJ estimates, a 100 basis point (parallel) rise in market yields would lead to mark-to-market (MTM) losses of 20 percent of Tier-1 capital for regional banks (not taking into account net unrealized gains on securities), against 10 percent for the major banks. [...] >> He who sells first wins... <<
QE  JGB  NIRP  2013  lostgeneration  economic  history  inflation  targeting  reflation  Yen  ZIRP  banking  crisis  BOJ  bank  crisis  inflation  Abenomics  Richardkoo  lostdecade  Japan 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau über die Pläne für eine Bankenunion - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die geplante Bankenunion kommt zu spät für die gegenwärtige Krise - denn ohne eine Änderung der EU-Verträge wird sie nicht funktionieren. Der Euro-Zone droht ein Jahrzehnt der Stagnation, weil es für Unternehmen in Südeuropa kaum noch Kredite gibt.
Politics  GFC  Europe  European  Commission  zombie  banks  recapitalisation  New  Normal  liquidity-trap  europeanunion  Troika  banking  union  banking  crisis  ECB  zombie  corporations  political  folly  lostdecade  policy  error  policy  folly  lostgeneration  economic  history  financial  repression  creditcrunch  political  error  sovereign  debt  crisis  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  austerity  USA  deleveraging  toobigtofail  systemicrisk  Richardkoo  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Saxo Bank CEO On The 'Eurozone Minefield': "This Crisis Will Not Pass" | Zero Hedge
Cyprus was indeed a template for bail ins and that outright confiscatory wealth taxes, disguised as solidarity payments, could be used to raise funds. "The governments of Europe need money, and the private sector has it. It is as simple as that. Be very paranoid," he said, warning investors that the mattress may be a safer place to deposit money over the weekend than their bank accounts. "Frankly, it is a complete mess. And it is a mess that gets worse and worse every day," is how the outspoken truthiness begins, adding, "anyone with a rational view of the world now sees the currency collaboration as a historic failure that can lead to even further fatal consequences for Europe and the continent’s competitiveness vis-à-vis the rest of the world."
currency  union  2013  Politics  lostgeneration  economic  history  Europe  Saxo  Bank  unintended  consequences  Political  error  Lars  Seier  Christensen  Euro  Policy  bail-in  europeanunion  Troika  greatdepression  folly  Cyprus  NiallFerguson  greatrecession  lostdecade  folly 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Junk's heyday is here and now - YouTube
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-09/deutsche-bank-we-fully-understand-why-authorities-wouldnt-want-free-markets-operate- "We would stress that we fully understand why the authorities wouldn't want free markets to operate today as the risk of a huge global default and unemployment cycle would still be very high. However their intervention has a cost in our opinion. Socially this might be worth paying but we do think it exists."
bankruptcy  cycle  unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  zombie  banks  fixed  income  miltonfriedman  BOJ  artificial  demand  Insolvenzverschleppung  QE  lostgeneration  demand  and  supply  property  bubble  hayek  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  bubble  default  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  debt  monetization  centralbanks  insolvency  cycle  Free  Lunch  IMF  default  cycle  GFC  refinancing  corporate  debt  haircut  unintended  consequences  high  yield  debt  Student  Loan  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  default  rate  credit  bubble  greatrecession  lostdecade  NIRP  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  monetarism  sovereign  debt  crisis  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  default  scenario  ZIRP  Junk  Bonds 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Japanese Government Bonds Halted Limit Down; Yields Spike To 10 Week High; Worst Day In 5 Years | Zero Hedge
It appears things are getting a little out of control around the world. .... [...] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-10/overnight-yen-tumble-sends-asia-scrambling-retaliate >> " Sure enough, midway through the evening session, Sri Lanka cut its reverse repo and repurchase rate to 9% and 7% respectively, promptly followed by Vietnam cutting its own refinancing rate from 8% to 7%, then moving to Thailand where the finance chief Kittiratt called for a rate cut exceeding 25 bps, and more jawboning from South Korea suggesting even more rate cuts from the export-driven country are set to come as it loses trade competitiveness to Japan. Asian financial crisis 2.0 any minute now? "
currency  debasement  QE  JGB  monetary  policy  currency  war  Politics  lostgeneration  economic  history  inflation  targeting  reflation  devaluation  Yen  ZIRP  BOJ  competitiveness  inflation  Asia  centralbanks  Japan  lostdecade 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Reinhart, Rogoff... and Herndon: The student who caught out the profs
http://www.peri.umass.edu/236/hash/31e2ff374b6377b2ddec04deaa6388b1/publication/566/ "not every economy is same, times are always different." >> Reply by Rogoff & Reinhart: 'We were only arguing association, not causality.' [...] Discovering a spreadsheet error was never going to end the debate over austerity - and nor should it, according to Megan McArdle, special correspondent for Newsweek and The Daily Beast. >> http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/panne-mit-excel-tabelle-rogoff-und-reinhart-haben-sich-verrechnet-a-894893.html "Olivier Blanchard (IMF) gestand ein die negativen Effekte der Sparpolitik auf das Wachstum unterschätzt wurden." >> Updated paper from Rogoff & Reinhart http://www.nber.org/papers/w18015 >> http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/holy-coding-error-batman/ http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/16/unemployment-reinhart-rogoff-arithmetic-cause
academics  complexity  sociology  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  academia  science  liquidity-trap  banking  crisis  carmenreinhart  political  folly  bank  crisis  macroeconomics  lostdecade  policy  folly  macroeconomic  policy  debtoverhang  lostgeneration  economic  history  philosophy  fiscal  policy  social  science  confidence  KennethRogoff  error  trustagent  paulkrugman  austerity  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  IWF  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
More Children in Greece Start to Go Hungry - NYTimes.com
Last year, an estimated 10 percent of Greek elementary and middle school students suffered from what public health professionals call “food insecurity,” ... “When it comes to food insecurity, Greece has now fallen to the level of some African countries,” she said.
angelamerkel  Greece  2013  Politics  lostgeneration  human  tragedy  Europe  European  Commission  Policy  Error  austerity  Troika  greatdepression  political  folly  lostdecade  IMF  folly 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
IMF Warns Spanish Debt-Load Is Unsustainable | Zero Hedge
The IMF warns Spain "will need to undertake unprecedented fiscal efforts to bring their debt ratios to traditional norms," as most countries have never experienced debt levels similar to current ones; and seemed to think a debt restructuring is more likely and will "entail substantial and long-lasting economic and social costs."
2013  lostgeneration  Spain  deposit  haircut  economic  history  haircut  European  Commission  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Troika  greatdepression  debt  restructuring  deposit  levy  lostdecade  greatrecession  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The Next Domino: Australia Doubles Tax On Retirement Savings | Zero Hedge
How much do you trust your government? >> Portugal, Ireland, Hungary & Co. raiding savings of ordinary people. raiding long-term funds for short-term holes. Promises are there to be broken. Laws to be rewritten. >> BOJ putting a tax in form of currency debasement (forced inflation / debt monetization) on its savers and pensioners. >> the problem with current form of democracy is - the short-term thinking that went on for 70 years.
currency  debasement  Politics  Europe  transferring-wealth  pension  scheme  IRA  BOJ  political  folly  Cyprus  Australia  democracy  greatrecession  lostdecade  policy  folly  JGB  middleclass  2013  lostgeneration  short-term  thinking  trust  pension  fund  working  poor  confidence  wealth  management  Error  401k  bail-in  trustagent  austerity  middle  class  USA  PIIGS  greatdepression  pension 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Dylan Grice Explains How "Crackpot" Central Bankers Are Destroying Society | Zero Hedge
Distrust is a brake on prosperity, because distrust is a brake on exchange. [...] So when central banks play the games with money of which they are so fond, we wonder if they realize that they are also playing games with social bonding. Do they realize that by devaluing money they are devaluing society? [...] Fed has monetized 50% of US Debt since 2009. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-11/foodstamp-recipients-hit-record-alongside-record-dow-jones-and-record-debt-20-eligib - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-11/presenting-currence-crises-devaluations-and-regime-changes-collapse-gold-standard
currency  debasement  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  academia  BOE  ECB  BOJ  currency-war  greatrecession  lostdecade  QE  Fed  society  lostgeneration  trust  economic  history  philosophy  confidence  trustagent  ZIRP  greatdepression  economics  centralbanks 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Watchdog contradicts Cameron on impact of austerity on growth
In a speech on the economy on Thursday, the prime minister said the independent watchdog had made it "absolutely clear" that spending cuts and tax rises were not responsible for the weak economy. But the OBR said it had been arguing for years that this was an issue. Labour said it was an "embarrassing rebuke" for the prime minister.
debtoverhang  OBR  2013  Politics  communication  GFC  lostgeneration  economic  history  UK  stagnation  austerity  davidcameron  greatdepression  deleveraging  GeorgeOsborne  lostdecade  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
IceCap Asset Management: "The Worst Is Over" | Zero Hedge
The worrisome feature of today’s global economy is that despite trillions (we repeat: trillions) in various forms of stimulus, economies around the World have not returned to the pre-2008 growth rates. > ECB may be able to artificially suppress PIIGS interest rates. but it can't create growth with QE and ZIRP > same with credit growth - stagnant. even with zero deposit interest rates for banks (overnight deposit @ECB). > that happend with Japan too. low interest rates. no growth. nil inflation. --- / What is missing is Confidence in Politics and Central Banks / ---
debtoverhang  QE  unemployment  monetary  policy  2013  Politics  trust  lostgeneration  economic  history  monetary  theory  MarioDraghi  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  ZIRP  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  ECB  Richardkoo  lostdecade  greatrecession  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Europe's Scariest Chart Update: Italy Now Worse Than Portugal | Zero Hedge
For the first time in two years, Italy's youth unemployment rate is now higher than Portugal's at a staggering 38.7% (which is where Greece was just two years ago). Apart from Germany (which fell from 8.0% to 7.9%), every other nation saw youth unemployment rates rise with a record 24.2% of European youth unemployed. Greece (59.4%) and Spain (55.5%) remain the most concerning as we noted in the past, austerity sounds straightforward as a policy, until the consequences bite in terms of social unrest.
austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  2013  lostgeneration  Europe  greatrecession  lostdecade  youth  unemployment 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
If You Thought The European Crisis Was Over... | Zero Hedge
http://www.voxeu.org/article/panic-driven-austerity-eurozone-and-its-implications [...] Austerity has failed. European Banks remain Rotten to the Core Sovereigns remain in Crisis [...] Since the start of the debt crisis financial markets have provided wrong signals; led by fear and panic, they pushed the spreads to artificially high levels and forced cash-strapped nations into intense austerity that produced great suffering. [...] Panic and fear are not good guides for economic policies. [...] The intense austerity programs that have been dictated by financial markets create new risks for the Eurozone. While the ECB 2012 decision to be a lender of last resort in the government bond markets eliminated the existential fears about the future of the Eurozone, the new risks for the future of the Eurozone now have shifted into the social and political sphere.
2008  debtoverhang  2013  Politics  GFC  lostgeneration  economic  history  Europe  zombie  banks  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  PIIGS  banking  crisis  greatdepression  WallStreet  deleveraging  lostdecade  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
february 2013 by asterisk2a
A Century Of French And Italian Economic Decline | Zero Hedge
Italy overtook Japan with the worst real GDP growth of all advanced economies since 1991. [...] France has the most most worker-friendly environment of 40 countries analyzed. [...] All things considered, from an investment standpoint, caution continues to be warranted. [...] As shown, problems in Europe appear to be taking their toll on EU corporate profitability.
debtoverhang  2013  lostgeneration  economic  history  Europe  Italy  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  PIIGS  greatdepression  GDP  deleveraging  Austerity  inflation  lostdecade  Japan  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
february 2013 by asterisk2a
Stephen Roach On Why Abe's Aggression Won't Save Japan //via ZeroHedge
The politicization of central banking continues unabated.

[...] [... GFC USA Aftermath ...]

When the bubbles burst, households understandably became fixated on balance-sheet repair – namely, paying down debt and rebuilding personal savings, rather than resuming excessive spending habits.

[...]

US consumers have pulled back as never before. In the 19 quarters since the start of 2008, annualized growth of inflation-adjusted consumer spending has averaged just 0.7% – almost three percentage points below the 3.6% trend increases recorded in the 11 years ending in 2006.

[...]

Not only is QE’s ability to jumpstart crisis-torn, balance-sheet-constrained economies limited; it also runs the important risk of blurring the distinction between monetary and fiscal policy. Central banks that buy sovereign debt issued by fiscal authorities offset market-imposed discipline on borrowing costs, effectively subsidizing public-sector profligacy.
UK  stephenroach  liquidity-trap  currency-war  currency  debasement  banking  crisis  debtoverhang  France  structural  imbalance  status  quo  Politics  liberal  economic  reform  PIIGS  Europe  savings  glut  zombie  consumer  greatrecession  GFC  Richardkoo  zombie  banks  Japan  lostgeneration  lostdecade  2013  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  debt  monetisation  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  2012  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  Abenomics  BOE  BOJ  ECB  Fed  USA  balance  sheet  recession  consumption  consumer 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
Kyle Bass' 5 Reasons Why The Japanese Government Bond Market Will Collapse by 2016 - YouTube
>> his balance of payments/trade prediction at current trajectory (from 2011 & 1H 2012) was correct. Q3 & Q4 trade deteriorated dramatically, may have to do w global slowdown 2012/2013 ... or ...

Original Here Oct 2012: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY

2011 Talk: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2gvMtDVI0A

>> More:
Kyle Bass on Europe from late 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4g9LEhCMF8

>> More:
Market Pulse: Japan's FX intervention warning...with a twist
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlFg3AxpRs8
JPY  greatrecession  GFC  default  scenario  default  2013  2012  Abenomics  lostdecade  lostgeneration  Politics  BOJ  sovereign  debt  crisis  JGB  Japan 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
Zuwanderung von Ingenieuren aus Südeuropa nützt Deutschland - SPIEGEL ONLINE
So absurd es klingen mag: Die Euro-Krise hilft Unternehmen wie Ziehl-Abegg. Denn der Bewerberstrom aus Südeuropa wird in den nächsten Monaten kaum abreißen: Im ersten Halbjahr 2012 kamen netto rund 182.000 Zuwanderer nach Deutschland, 35 Prozent mehr als im Vorjahreszeitraum. Die Zahl der Portugiesen und Spanier stieg gegenüber 2011 um mehr als die Hälfte, die Zahl der griechischen Zuwanderer steig um 78 Prozent. In der Krise gilt Deutschland als letzte Zuflucht vor der Massenarbeitslosigkeit und der tiefen Rezession in ihren Heimatländern.

[...]

Imigration ... Das habe Deutschland auch bitter nötig: "Der demografische Wandel wird uns in 10 bis 15 Jahren voll treffen. Bis dahin müssen wir unser Erwerbspersonenpotential entwickeln", sagt Brücker. Ob der Zustrom aus dem Süden aber noch lange anhält, hält der Ökonom aber für sehr fraglich: "Wir haben eine einmalige Situation. Fast überall in Europa ist Krise, nur in Deutschland nicht. Das bleibt nicht für immer so."
babyboomers  demography  demographics  lostgeneration  lostdecade  greatrecession  germany  emigration  imigaration  2012  Portugal  Greece  Spain  unemployment  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Sharp Drops After Saying Material Doubt on Survival - Bloomberg
SHARP and PANASONIC likely next candidates to fail (bankruptcy, reorganisation, splitting of assets). Their demise is partly to contribute not being able to stay in touch of technology trends. It is a dead end street to compete simply by price where ur products are just a commodity.

Same with Motorola and their cell phone business.
Same with Nokia and their cell phone business.
Same with RIM and their cell phone business.
Same w Kodak and photo business.

- But what makes it even worse for SHARP and PANASONIC is that they a Japanese companies, with Japanese Corp. ORG structures. Also see OLYMPUS.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2010/07/japanese_corporate_culture
http://www.cityam.com/forum/the-japanese-disease-how-its-corporate-culture-turns-disasters-catastrophes
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-biggest-problem-with-japanese-corporate-culture-lives-on-2012-9
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_management_culture
Apple  Kodak  management  corporate  governance  corporate  culture  Olympus  Eastman  Kodak  Eastman  Kodak  Company  Research  In  Motion  RIM  Google  Motorola  Amazon  commoditization  lostgeneration  lostdecade  Japan  Panasonic  Corporation  Sharp  Corporation  Nokia  technology  innovation 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Young, Hopeless Europeans Flock to Former Colonies — Business News - CNBC
Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho last year expressed his desperation about the situation in his country, and said that the only solution to soaring youth unemployment was for the ‘lost generation’, as the young are increasingly called, to emigrate.
austerity  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  lostgeneration  youth  unemployment  2012  emigration  greatrecession  PIIGS 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Bond guru Gundlach on the U.S., China and Apple - Market Extra - MarketWatch
The investing environment since the 1980s has been dominated by an explosion of debt financing, leading to extra consumption and the financial-market expansion that stems from all the extra trading.

“The next 30 years are not going to be the same,” “If instead we go into opposite trend and have debt paid down, the government is not running deficits and [see] rising interest rates potentially, then everything is backwards.”

So Gundlach’s longer-term recommendation is that once that becomes apparent, he would buy emerging-market equities, because of the more supportive growth patterns in those countries.

Investors are largely relying on central banks to boost growth. But Gundlach sees unintended consequences that could weaken growth for decades to come.

He also believes that the Fed’s policies are having the unintended consequence of making it harder for young people to find jobs, because older people are working longer since their savings are no longer enough to live off of.
youth  unemployment  unemployment  BOE  ECB  Fed  lostgeneration  financial  repression  babyboomers  deleveraging  QE  stagflation  lostdecade  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  debt  bubble  ZIRP  unintended  consequences 
october 2012 by asterisk2a
Prof Martin Feldsein on Spanish economy and Euro (28Sept12) - YouTube
Report about anti austerity protests.
Report about politicians in Portugal taking a step back.

Spain, Catalonia, Politics, ...

Social fabric breaks apart.

Decline is subliminal. In-front our eyes, hardly noticeable.
confidence  trust  economic  history  Euro  fiscal  policy  ECB  IMF  fiscal  sovereignty  Pact  Troika  ESM  economics  MarianoRajoy  Catalonia  lostgeneration  greatrecession  Europe  Politics  social  contract  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  Spain  Portugal  austerity 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
The Student Loan Bubble In 19 Simple Charts | ZeroHedge
Crummy politicians guaranteed mortgage debt which led via little conservatism and little oversight and governance into a property bubble, etc etc - the rest is history

The same has been in the making for over 2 decades now with student debt and grants ... a bubble that will burst eventually.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-28/next-subprime-crisis-here-over-120-billion-federal-student-loans-default

there is now at least $122 billion in federal student loan defaults. And surging every day.

Ladies and gentlemen: meet the new subprime.
NPL  subprime  governance  lobby  oversight  lostgeneration  government  USA  Student  Loan  Bubble  debt  education  education  college  university  un-college  studentdebt  debt  StudentLoans 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Rosenberg Sees U.S. Growth Potential Near 2%-2.5%: Video - Bloomberg
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., talks about the outlook for financial markets, the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy. Rosenberg, speaking with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance," also discusses Deutsche Bank AG and the banking industry (Source: Bloomberg)

-
Even with credit growth resuming, GDP output will be less than in the past.

Structural imbalance, impairment.

Talking about Equity Monologue all have (Bloomberg, WSJ, FT).

Lack of domestic demand, due to still existing problems that partially caused GFC.

Businesses lack confidence to start new projects. New projects, new technologies, new industries (ie renewable energy, infrastructure, recycling industry?).
Long-term goals needed - to instil certainty. The spark is missing. That moment in time, realisation, inspiration.
Fix fiscal policy.
Political courage, shared sacrifice.
No fairy tales.
lostgeneration  fiscal  policy  election2012  Politics  confidence  uncertainty  economics  supply-demand  WallStreet  debtoverhang  structural  imbalance  balance  sheet  recession  lostdecade  greatrecession  GFC  2012  USA  output-gap 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Born Bankrupt: State of UK economy, part1/2 (24Aug12) - YouTube
Generational Theft. In-front of our eyes. Decline in-front of our eyes. Decline is subliminal.

Society's Contract, is broken. Society (baby boomers) is also bankrupt ethically and morally. Who are they to say what ought to be dome about the state of 'the system'!?

Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQVyBo8HMsc

Book: Jilted Generation, Ed Howker (Author)
history  political  theory  book  generational  contract  generational  change  GeorgeOsborne  nickclegg  davidcameron  2012  moralhazard  moral  ethics  society  demographics  demography  fiscal  policy  policy  folly  policy  error  political  economy  politics  accountability  governance  lostgeneration  lostdecade  babyboomers  GordonBrown  tonyblair  UK  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  greatrecession  GFC 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Bagehot: Generation Xhausted | The Economist
Begin with the early 20s, which across the recessionary West, but perhaps especially in Britain, with its high housing costs, are grimmer than in the past: 20-somethings are often indebted, jobless and stuck in an involuntarily protracted adolescence. The Office for National Statistics reckons that nearly 3m people between 20 and 34 were living with their parents last year, almost half a million more than in 1997.

The “sandwich generation”—caught between adolescent children and senescent parents—used to be in their mid-40s. Now the oldies are living and staying healthy for longer, and so requiring care later. Carers UK, a charity, calculates that the number of pensioners who are themselves carers (of either partners or their own ancient parents) is rising fast. Thus 55—an age when, in the past, people were liberated from immediate family obligations to rediscover fun—may soon be the new 45. The sandwich generation is getting stale.

And parents in late 30s; late family + career.
demography  demographics  relationships  well-being  happieness  generational  change  GFC  greatrecession  lostgeneration  lostdecade  babyboomers  generations  change  society  culture 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Jeremy Grantham: "I, For One, Wish That The World Would Get On With Whatever Is Coming Next" | ZeroHedge
“Decline will be and is subliminal.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-18436829

Modern economic history in the making!

---

“Groundhog Day”

The economic environment seems to be stuck in a rather unpleasant perpetual loop. Greece is always about to default; the latest bailout is always about to save the day and yet never seems to; China is always about to collapse but instead teases us by inching down; and I swear the Financial Times is beginning to recycle its reports! In the U.S., the fiscal cliff looms along with debt limits and the usual election uncertainties. The dysfunctional U.S. Congress continues for the time being in its intractable ways. The stock market rises and falls and rises and falls again. It is getting difficult to find anything new to say at client meetings. I, for one, wish that the world would get on with whatever is coming next.
debtoverhang  deleveraging  lostgeneration  lostdecade  Japan  global-economy  global  imbalances  society  currency-war  currency  debasement  centralbanks  Europe  USA  UK  policy  folly  policy  error  politics  reflation  sovereign  debt  crisis  greatrecession  GFC  decline 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Jobless generation puts brakes on US - FT.com
Young Americans are well aware of their precarious place in today’s economy, with only 16 per cent in a Rutgers University survey of recent university graduates believing their generation will have greater financial success than the one before. About half of the students surveyed had full-time jobs, and 40 per cent of the college graduates with loans reported putting off big purchases such as cars and homes.

This leaves a firmer economic recovery closely tied to the fortunes of a generation gripped by high levels of debt – and falling incomes from the jobs that require the education the debt buys.
lostdecade  lostgeneration  greatrecession  GFC  bubble  education  debt  bubble  StudentLoans  student  loan  debt  USA  university  college  youth  unemployment  unemployment 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
dctp.tv | un-college
http://www.uncollege.org/

UnCollege is a social movement changing the notion that going to college is the only path to success.

Fifty percent of the world’s population is under thirty: you must differentiate yourself to succeed. With 70.1% of high school graduates going to college, a college degree no longer guarantees success.
lostgeneration  academia  university  autodidact  college  education 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
US-Studie: Weltweit sinkt Glaube an Kapitalismus und Marktwirtschaft - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Lediglich rund jeder zehnte Europäer oder Japaner glaubt zudem noch, dass es seinen Nachkommen leichtfallen werde, größeren Wohlstand oder besseren Verdienst zu erreichen.

Enttäuschte Bürger rund um den Globus verlieren in der Krise auch den Glauben an ihre Regierungen: In 16 der 21 an der Pew-Studie beteiligten Staaten macht die Mehrheit der Befragten ihre Politiker maßgeblich für die aktuelle wirtschaftliche Misere verantwortlich.
Germany  Japan  austerity  sovereign  debt  crisis  accountability  democracy  moralhazard  bailout  policy  folly  policy  error  lostdecade  lostgeneration  society  confidence  2008  2012  UK  USA  PIIGS  greatrecession  GFC  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  Politics  trustagent  trust  capitalism 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Central Banks Commit to Ease as Threat of Lost Decades Rises - Bloomberg
“Japan’s experience shows central banks can mitigate the worst effects of the current environment, but it’s going to be very hard for them to stimulate demand,”

Almost five years after central banks first sprang into action to buoy the world economy, they are being forced to react to a third successive annual fading of recovery hopes as Europe’s debt crisis threatens to engulf Spain and Italy, hiring in the U.S. stalls and China slows.

Developed economies are running into the limits of monetary policy, the Bank for International Settlements said in its annual report yesterday. Central bank balance sheets now contain $18 trillion of assets, about 30 percent of global gross domestic product, double the ratio of a decade ago, and interest rates are as “low as they can go,” the BIS said.
zombie  banks  NPL  debtoverhang  economic  history  unintended  consequences  unin  BoJ  Fed  BOE  ECB  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetary  policy  System  QE  ZIRP  lostgeneration  greatrecession  GFC  BIS  lostdecade  Japan 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Bank of England's money printing is putting UK economy at risk - Telegraph
In its annual report, the Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned that artificially low rates and inflated asset prices could also be holding back growth by masking lenders' bad debts and deterring them from cleaning up their balance sheets.
"Prolonged and aggressive monetary accommodation may delay the return to a self-sustaining recovery," "It can undermine the perceived need to deal with banks' impaired assets."
Political pressure for loose monetary policy, including quantitative easing (QE), also threatened to damage central banks' credibility and destroy their independence,
at risk the central banks' price stability objective, their credibility and, ultimately, their independence.
governments, banks and households struggling with too much debt were dragging down the world's economy and that more needs to be done to make the banking system safer.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-25/central-banks-commit-to-ease-as-threat-of-lost-decades-rises-1-.html
debt  jubilee  policy-makers  policy  folly  policy  error  politics  economics  economic-thought  economic  model  greatrecession  GFC  lostgeneration  lostdecade  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  richardkoo  monetary  theory  System  confidence  trust  trustagent  ECB  bubble  Japan  QE  ZIRP  unintended  consequences  economic  history  BOJ  Fed  BOE  monetary  policy  UK  zombie  banks  NPL  BIS 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
HoheArbeitslosigkeit: Europas Jugend ohne Zukunft - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Generation Finanzkriese
- ups and down cycles have shorter and timeframes, and more deeply

Die jungen Menschen in der EU steuern in die Hoffnungslosigkeit: Mehr als 20 Prozent der 15- bis 24-Jährigen haben keinen Job, in Spanien ist inzwischen fast jeder Zweite arbeitslos - und die Aussichten sind alles andere als positiv. Selbst die recht guten Zahlen aus Deutschland sind trügerisch.

Germany polishes statistics with gimmickry 
Doch die relativ guten Zahlen in Deutschland sind trügerisch: Junge Menschen in der Bundesrepublik sind nicht nur häufiger mit Erwerbslosigkeit konfrontiert als die Gesamtbevölkerung. Sie haben auch deutlich öfter eine sogenannte atypische Beschäftigung. Dazu gehören beispielsweise befristete Jobs oder Zeitarbeit.

=== Long-Run Economic Consequences ===
lostdecade  lostgeneration  generationy  unemployment  youth  USA  PIIGS  europe  germany  fraud  government  statistics  accounting  politics  policy  mistake  folly  millennials  generationx 
august 2011 by asterisk2a

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