asterisk2a + inflation   282

(10204) Are We Destined for a Slow Growth Future? - YouTube
- shortage on the demand side. but demand can't be more leveraged and borrowed. ALL economic indicators point against a thriving of the UK bottom up (from household finances, are stretched thinly) //&! Gross wages lower than 10 years ago! Lost decade of earnings. In real terms people are NOT better off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0anqgXLvwko
secular  stagnation  Brexit  household  debt  consumer  UK  USA  loan  GFC  recovery  Productivity  output  gap  economic  history  leverage  underinvestment  banking  property  bubble  housing  demographic  immigration  working  poor  poverty  Austerity  Trickle-down  Gesellschaft  DonaldTrump  Donald  Trump  inequality  social  mobility  income  Society  inflation  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  debt-servicing  OECD  IMF  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  Fed  globalisation  globalization  trap  credit  card  creditcard  creditcrunch  student  auto 
july 2018 by asterisk2a
Capitalism’s Crisis of Stagnation and Austerity
After the 2008-09 financial crisis, the hope was that a combination of economic recovery, inflation and austerity would shrink the debt mountain. This, though, was too optimistic. Growth has been below par, inflation subdued and austerity self-defeating. (“Global debt is the danger: beware the butterfly moment” Financial Times 6 January 2018)
Kapital  Capital  productivity  Austerity  economic  history  secular  stagnation  demand  output  gap  UK  USA  Germany  income  growth  debt  bubble  inflation  service  QE  monetary  fiscal  policy  underinvestment  Exploitation  atomised 
february 2018 by asterisk2a
Homebase owners may close up to 40 stores - BBC News
[first the supermarkets, then everyone else, also UK restaurant trade struggling, especially mid-market! anything above your payday takeout, also housing growth is slowing down thus DIY ] UK retailers are struggling in the face of rising inflation and fragile consumer confidence.

Several store chains have announced job cuts recently, including supermarket giants Tesco, Sainsbury's and Asda.

Homebase's rival, B&Q, last week said it was cutting 200 jobs at its head office in Hampshire as part of a cost-cutting drive. &! https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/05/uk-services-sector-growth-falls-hotels-restaurants-brexit - Demand weakens for services such as restaurants and hotels amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty
UK  Brexit  disposable  income  economy  discretionary  spending  growth  wage  Productivity  High  Street  Precariat  working  poor  poverty  trap  social  mobility  pay  rise  inflation  broke  household  debt  credit  card  leverage  recovery  secular  stagnation  history  GFC  Austerity  underinvestment  output  gap  HighStreet  Services  Service 
february 2018 by asterisk2a
Food insecurity: a third of poorest households skip meals, survey finds | Global development | The Guardian
one in four low-income households struggled to eat healthily or regularly.

More than half of adults across all income groups, ages and household sizes agreed that they had seen the cost of their groceries go up over the past three months, reflecting rising food inflation.
public  health  Austerity  Brexit  shrinkflation  inflation  food  insecurity  UK  crisis  obesity  overweight  Cancer  diabetes  CVD  childhood  JSA  ESA  structural  unemployment  sanctions  child  tax  credit  taxcredit  subsidies  chronic  sick  population  sickcare  demand  NHS 
january 2018 by asterisk2a
Budget 2017: Stagnant earnings forecast 'astonishing' - BBC News
real wages in aggregate to continue to stagnate fall eaten up by inflation. Does NOT help serving current debt levels. // The prediction that average UK earnings in 2022 could still be less than in 2008 is "astonishing", according to an independent economic think tank. // 'Adair Turner: neoliberalism not raising all boats'
secular  stagnation  productivity  inflation  Brexit  budget2017  paysqueeze  IFS  ONS  OBR  Philip  Hammond  skill  gap  output  wage  income  growth  disposable  discretionary  spending  debt  BOE  Mark  Carney  underinvestment  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  education  policy  college  GDP  Capitalism  GFC  recovery  neoliberal  neoliberalism  globalisation  globalization 
november 2017 by asterisk2a
(4081) Warum wir alle ärmer werden – Top-Ökonom erklärt die Gründe! // Mission Money - YouTube
houses are unproductive / schuldeninfusion erhaelt am leben, zombie u.a. / wer bezahlt fuer EU schuldenschnitt? / German econ illusion / banken in eu immernoch sanierungsbeduerftig /
Productivity  output  gap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  book  Robotics  AI  augmented  artificial  intelligence  GFC  recovery  debt  overhang  Austerity  household  wage  growth  inflation  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Japan  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  income  zombie  Richard  Koo  disposable  discretionary  spending  bank  bailout  NPL 
october 2017 by asterisk2a
UK's low pay culture traps people in poorly paid jobs, study finds | Society | The Guardian
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41669991 - high tech, low life. // in-work poverty, gini coefficient takes into account pensioners. // “Britain has one of the highest proportions of low-paid work in the developed world. And while three-quarters of low-paid workers did manage to move into higher-paying roles at some point over the past decade, the vast majority couldn’t sustain that progress. This lack of pay progress can have a huge scarring effect on people’s lifetime living standards. [...] “Britain’s flexible workforce gives us global economic advantage but a two-tier labour market is now exacting too high a social price.
OECD  poverty  trap  social  income  mobility  Precariat  class  UK  zero  hour  contracts  part-time  Exploitation  neoliberalism  workers  trade  union  rights  skills  skill  gap  Productivity  output  London  economic  history  recovery  GFC  underinvestment  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Austerity  education  inequality  tax  credit  taxcredit  gini  Coefficient  standard  of  living  Brexit  inflation  disposable  discretionary  spending  debt  household  child  profit  maximisation  competitiveness  IMF 
october 2017 by asterisk2a
Millions may lose promised pension payout - BBC News
gov has to bail out again corporate greed // Three million savers in final-salary pension schemes only have a 50/50 chance of receiving the payouts they were promised, a study has concluded.
Some employers were under pressure to meet their pension obligations, the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association (PLSA) said.
High-profile cases such as the BHS collapse have highlighted concerns over the future of workplace pensions.
The PLSA said one solution could be the pooling of resources into "superfunds".
pension  retirement  crisis  TBTF  bailout  corporate  subsidies  subsidizing  scheme  UK  USA  ZIRP  NIRP  GFC  recovery  ageing  population  babyboomers  baby  boomers  demographic  bubble  Productivity  secular  stagnation  growth  inflation  401k 
september 2017 by asterisk2a
Falling unemployment is great for the economy? Try telling cleaners like Irene | Stefan Baskerville | Opinion | The Guardian
While UK unemployment fell by 75,000 in the three months to July, bringing the jobless rate down to 4.3%, these figures disguise a disturbing trend in the British labour market – one of falling wages, rising insecurity and false self-employment. At the New Economics Foundation, we carried out research that shows two in every five people employed in the UK are in “bad jobs” – work that doesn’t provide a secure, living wage.
UK  working  poor  Precariat  Austerity  Self-Employment  zero  hour  contract  part-time  child  credit  tax  insecurity  job  Productivity  underinvestment  skill  gap  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  consumer  debt  household  zero-hour  on-demand  profit  maximisation  living  standard  wage  growth  inflation  secular  stagnation  GFC  recovery  poverty  trap  Deprivation  mental  health  chronic  stress 
september 2017 by asterisk2a
Back to the future on inflation
[ no rising demand = no inflation ] Globalisation and the march of technology have strengthened the hand of employers and weakened that of workers. So it is no surprise that though unemployment has relentlessly fallen, wage growth remains in the doldrums.

Then there is the war between generations. As the baby boomers approached retirement, they sought to safeguard their wealth. Inflation-targeting central banks, the dismantling of the welfare state and fiscal austerity were the natural results. The modern macroeconomic constitution has disenfranchised the inflationary constituency of the young. &! https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/tax-cuts-for-the-rich-solve-nothing-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2017-07
USA  UK  European  Union  inflation  targeting  GDP  demand  economic  history  babyboomers  Generationy  Generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  Millennials  Austerity  secular  stagnation  working  poor  Precariat  poverty  trap  social  income  mobility  inequality  1%  10%  Super  Rich  Plutocracy  Oligarchy  Taxation  trickle-down  ECB  Fed  BOE  BOJ  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  pension  scheme  obligation  Brexit  bank  bailout  recovery  GFC 
july 2017 by asterisk2a
UK pay squeeze breaks all sorts of records for all the wrong reasons | Larry Elliott | Business | The Guardian
As John Philpott, who runs the Jobs Economist consultancy, noted: “What’s remarkable is that pay growth, however measured, is so weak at a time when employment is at joint record rate of 74.8% and unemployment at a 42-year low of 4.6%, driven almost entirely in the latest quarter by relatively strong growth in full-time jobs for employees on permanent contracts. Hard times and near full employment make strange bedfellows, highlighting the extent to which a deregulated labour market with an abundance of workers available to fill low wage vacancies has altered the UK jobs landscape.”
UK  Brexit  GE2017  Austerity  wage  income  growth  inflation  living  standard  disposable  discretionary  spending  creditcard  credit  card  household  debt  personal  loan  secular  stagnation  GFC  recovery  bank  bailout  inequality  poverty  trap  tax  evasion  avoidance  taxation  capital  investment  economic  history 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
First fall in consumer spending for almost 4 years
Consumer spending has fallen on an annual basis for the first time in almost four years [...] Adjusting for inflation, real consumer spending by British consumers on Visa debit, credit and prepaid cards in May was 0.8 per cent lower than in the same month last year. Visa said that seasonally adjusted spending was 1.8 per cent lower in May compared to April. The figures are unofficial, but suggest that sluggish economic growth continued in the second quarter, after a first quarter in which the UK grew at the slowest rate in the G7. [...] household consumption, which accounts for more than 60 per cent of the economy. [ 80 Services and Consumption 20 manufacturing ] /&! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/11/new-economic-woes-put-theresa-may-fresh-pressure/ - The crucial services sector stands on the brink of a contraction
UK  Brexit  GE2017  Consumer  Confidence  creditcard  credit  card  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  inflation  living  standard  wage  growth  recession  Economy  2017  secular  stagnation  deflation  deflationary  BOE  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  Austerity  Services  materialism  Shopping  Consumerism  consumerist  household  debt  mortgage  Manufacturing 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
Linken-Wahlkampf: Wagenknechts Attacke auf Rot-Rot-Grün | ZEIT ONLINE
Ein Fünftel der Menschen arbeite im Niedriglohnsektor, Millionen Rentner seien von Armut bedroht, rechnet Wagenknecht vor und zitiert Wirtschaftsforscher, denen zufolge 40 Prozent der Erwerbstätigen heute weniger als Ende der 1990er Jahre verdienen würden. "Das ist doch ein Armutszeugnis für die ganze Politik", sagt die Spitzenkandidatin. Wenn Kanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) behaupte, Deutschland gehe es gut, kenne sie die Lebensrealität nicht.
BTW2017  Die  Linke  Germany  Precariat  working  poor  minimum  wage  Mindestlohn  inflation  living  standard  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Agenda2010  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Leiharbeit  Zeitarbeit  zero  hour  contract  ZHC  poverty  trap  Kinderarmut  Altersarmut  Angela  Merkel  GroKo 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
Britain’s economy is broken. We desperately need new ideas | Tom Kibasi | Opinion | The Guardian
If the country was economically bankrupt in 2010, it is intellectually bankrupt in 2017. On the eve of the general election, politicians of all parties have rarely been so devoid of progressive ideas [...] Yet in substance, May’s approach remains mere tinkering at the edges of economic policy. The Conservatives remain stubbornly allergic to – or ignorant of – Keynesian macroeconomics. [...] [and housing and real estate lending distorting the lending picture. houses are not productive! R&D, and firms are. and creating long-term jobs w real incomes to spend (not remortgaging your home bc of housing bubble]
Brexit  GE2017  London  Housing  Bubble  piggybank  Forex  British  Pound  recovery  GFC  Manufacturing  Services  Consumerism  Zombie  Austerity  underinvestment  confidence  fairy  Productivity  output  gap  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  banking  investment  distortion  lending  property  UK  Living  Standard  wage  income  growth  inflation  £ 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
Car finance deals soar to new record - BBC News
The Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) have raised concerns about such deals.
The Bank's worry is in relation to levels of consumer borrowing.
However Adrian Dally, head of motor finance at the FLA, said lenders were behaving responsibly.
"We do not share their concerns," he told the BBC. "Lending is responsible. This is a sustainable model going forwards." [...] That is largely because motorists can hand their cars back if they can no longer afford payments.
Ultimately it is the car manufacturers who carry the risk on such deals, as they guarantee second-hand values.
UK  consumer  debt  household  borrowing  creditcard  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  Brexit  confidence  credit  card  auto  loan  car  lease  protection  BOE  wage  growth  inflation  economy  FCA  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  bubble  automotive  industry  insolvency 
may 2017 by asterisk2a
Post-Chavez Venezuela Has Become a Failed State - YouTube
Venezuela //&! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljXBooe9U3A - Venezuela: The world's worst-performing economy - Counting the Cost //&! >>> What's happening in Venezuela? | CNBC Explains - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNJn4ElKYHg //&! Breaking Point: Venezuela's Horrific Food, Medicine Shortage: Part 1 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5nNnI4BLbE //&! Maduro says shut-up the opposition >> Venezuela's Supreme Court seized power from the opposition-led legislature on Thursday. "unlivable country for those not close to power" - http://www.npr.org/2017/03/31/522232604/in-venezuela-supreme-court-takes-over-congress //&! Maduro's opponents accused him of staging a coup after the Supreme Court took over powers from the legislature and removed lawmakers' immunity. - http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/nicolas-maduro-venezuela-170331235728841.html //&! "Sie protestieren nicht, weil sie essen müssen." - http://www.zeit.de/politik/2017-04/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-politikwissenschaftler-victor-mijares
Venezuela  inflation  blackmarket  Forex  Oil  Maduro  Chavez 
april 2017 by asterisk2a
What Next tells us about shopkeepers' woes - BBC News
more online shopping, less high street (high street had to be profitably managed down). More spending on experience.
Brexit  inflation  High  Street  Amazon  on-demand  Mainstreet  HighStreet  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  wage  growth  household  debt  consumer  credit  card  creditcard  UK  private  borrowing 
march 2017 by asterisk2a
Tesco pulls Sol, Amstel and Tiger from shelves in Brexit price row | Business | The Guardian
The brewer has also faced unexpected pressure from a surprisingly stiff increase in alcohol taxes in the budget earlier this month.

Philip Hammond raised beer duty in line with the retail price index measure of inflation, but used a forecast rate of 3.9%, rather than the current RPI level of 3.2%.

The higher-than-expected duty rise, coupled with increased costs for bottles, packaging and fuel because of the pound’s slump since the EU referendum, is understood to be behind the Heineken’s decision to ask for higher prices.
Brexit  inflation  British  Pound  Sterling  £  Forex  foreign  exchange  Dollar 
march 2017 by asterisk2a
Tory education cuts: Conservative MPs demand funding policy reverse - YouTube
budget cuts in real terms // Global Britain schools cutting education, culture, arts, foreign modern languages, // add NHS // Prison // Police // adult social care/elderly care //
UK  education  policy  Austerity  social  mobility  teaching  assistant  staff  shortage  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  JAM  Theresa  May  Philip  Hammond  poverty  trap  income  skills  gap  Brexit  deprivation  attainment  Council  diversity  inflation  squeezed  gini  Coefficient  BAME  working  poor  Precariat  NHS  care  elderly  adult  Crisis 
march 2017 by asterisk2a
Here's Why A Slowdown In Earnings For The Top 1% Is A Problem For The UK - BuzzFeed News
“Fifteen years without a pay rise,” IFS director Paul Johnson said. “I’m rather lost for superlatives. This is completely unprecedented.” [...] If the top earners make less, the government brings in less tax revenue; it’s as simple as that. And with Brexit looming, the exchequer needs to raise all the funds it can.
UK  Budget  wage  growth  Austerity  living  standard  income  social  mobility  productivity  output  gap  Philip  Hammond  Theresa  May  George  Osborne  secular  stagnation  inflation  discretionary  disposable  credit  card  creditcard  household  debt  Consumer  Consumerism  consumerist  materialism  Brexit  London  1%  10%  NIC  welfare  state  underinvestment  gini  Coefficient  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative 
march 2017 by asterisk2a
Rethink rates now or face retail disaster, shops tell chancellor | Business | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/07/food-inflation-doubles-uk-shoppers-feel-pinch [ are there sensible consumers out there, and wait out the next 2 years?!!! reality of Brexit should be by now, has to be digested by consumer, as always the lag indicator of most. FDI and business investement is first, and was first to scale back! ] A report from the British Retail Consortium and KPMG found that the spurt in consumer spending seen in the run-up to Christmas had come to an abrupt halt, with the result that non-food sales are falling for the first time since the economy was flirting with a double-dip recession in November 2011.

Further evidence that consumers are becoming more cautious was provided by the the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, which released figures on Monday showing a drop of more than 4% in private car sales last month.
inflation  Brexit  household  debt  Consumerism  Consumer  credit  card  creditcard  private  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  uncertainty  UK  underinvestment  Austerity  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  BOE  Mark  Carney  Theresa  May  Philip  Hammond 
march 2017 by asterisk2a
Budget 2017: Hammond to tell us the Brexit vote could have been worse | Business | The Guardian
consumers carried on spending and businesses continued to expand.

The picture for the public finances is also looking rosier compared with Hammond’s maiden autumn statement in November. [...] But here’s what the chancellor will not tell you: living costs have gone up and will continue to do so. The poorest will be hit hardest as the cost of essentials such as food and heating take a growing chunk out of already tight family budgets. Wages will struggle to match rises in inflation and the government’s benefit cuts mean that incomes will fall for the poorest people in Britain. In short, unless the government does something significant to improve living standards this week, inequality will start rising again.
UK  JAM  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  Theresa  May  Philip  Hammond  Austerity  DWP  HMRC  inflation  wage  growth  social  mobility  inequality  income  Tories  Productivity  child  poverty  trap  output  gap  recovery  GFC  bank  bailout  nasty  party  Conservative  Generationengerechtigkeit  babyboomers  Millennials  generation  rent  living  standard  discretionary  spending  disposable  credit  taxation  household  debt  mortgage  housing  crisis  Consumer  Consumerism  economic  history  neoliberalism  interventionism  crony  capitalism  tax  evasion  avoidance  corporatism  Exploitation  zero  hour  contract  part-time  minimum  generational  divide  Triple  Lock  Pension 
march 2017 by asterisk2a
IFS: Growth in UK living standards worst in 60 years | Business | The Guardian
The Institute for Financial Studies is predicting that households will be almost 20% worse off by 2021 - IFS calculations show that average household incomes will be 18% lower in 2021-22 than could have been reasonably expected before the financial crisis in 2007-08 - “One of the biggest drivers of the rise in child poverty is policy choices, which is why it is essential that the prime minister and chancellor use the upcoming budget to put in place measures to stop this happening. An excellent start would be to ensure families can keep more of their earnings under the universal credit.”
IMF  UK  Austerity  OECD  living  standard  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Philip  Hammond  Theresa  May  GFC  recovery  Tories  nasty  party  bank  bailout  Labour  Ed  Miliband  Jeremy  Corbyn  Conservative  secular  stagnation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  household  debt  credit  card  mortgage  private  Consumer  Consumerism  wage  growth  inflation  mobility  inequality  gini  Coefficient  poverty  trap  working  poor  gig  economy  zero  hour  contract  Self-Employment  part-time  Precariat  squeezed  middle  class  technological  unemployment  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  trickle-down  neoliberalism  crony  Capitalism  corporatism  tax  evasion  avoidance  GDP  Corporate  profit  maximisation  globalisation  globalization  welfare  underinvestment  child  taxation  taxcredit  UC  DWP  JSA  social  fuel  Brexit  neoconservatism  neoconservatives  JAM 
march 2017 by asterisk2a
Chancellor is an 'economic illiterate', claims pro-Brexit economist | Politics | The Guardian
[ Hard Brexit, out of single market ] Patrick Minford, an economics professor at Cardiff University, said Hammond and other politicians risked setting the UK on a course of serious self harm if they pushed for a trade deal with the EU that put customs charges on goods and services imported to the country.
Brexit  Theresa  May  Philip  Hammond  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  economic  recovery  history  GFC  inflation  living  standard  competitiveness  competitive  wage  growth  income  stagnation  secular  UK  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  working  poor  Precariat  Poverty  trap  discretionary  spending  disposable 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
Mario Draghi in der Kritik: "Die Geldpolitik macht den Kapitalismus kaputt" - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Danach kamen die Übertreibungen am US-Immobilienmarkt, im Süden der Eurozone und auf den Rohstoffmärkten. Wir haben es mit einer Kette wandernder Blasen zu tun, die von der Geldpolitik getrieben werden. Die neue Blase bildet sich nie dort, wo zuvor die alte geplatzt ist. Die Regierungen reagieren auf einen Crash mit schärferen Regeln, aber die Spekulation ist ihnen immer einen Schritt voraus.
GFC  recovery  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  USA  UK  Europe  European  Union  PIGS  secular  stagnation  household  debt  consumer  car  loan  student  credit  card  private  Austerity  IMF  OECD  Dodd-Frank  self-regulation  Regulation  regulators  FSA  BaFin  speculation  speculative  ROI  productivity  output  gap  inflation  targeting  monetary  policy  fiscal  Schuldenbremse  Pact  inequality  capital  assets  gini  Coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  10%  Plutocracy  Oligarchy  bank  bailout  zombie  NPL 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
UK faces return to inequality of Thatcher years, says report | Business | The Guardian
Pressure on the government to help struggling Britons has intensified after a leading thinktank warned that falling living standards for the poor threatened the biggest rise in inequality since Margaret Thatcher was prime minister.

The Resolution Foundation said Theresa May would need to make good on her pledge to support “just about managing” households as it released a report showing that rising inflation and an end to recent strong jobs growth would hit the least well-off hardest.
UK  Brexit  Austerity  tax  credit  Tories  JAM  nasty  party  Conservative  poverty  fuel  working  poor  Precariat  zero  hour  contract  Contractor  Self-Employment  gig  Economy  1099  part-time  social  mobility  income  distribution  redistribution  squeezed  middle  class  technological  unemployment  underemployed  underemployment  trap  education  policy  public  health  inequality  Food  Bank  gini  Coefficient  Triple  Lock  Pension  JSA  ESA  DWP  minimum  wage  taxation  evasion  avoidance  HMRC  NHS  inflation  living  standard  disposable  discretionary  spending  Card  consumer  debt  household  underinvestment  skills  skill-biased  Productivity  output  gap  downward  upward  Theresa  May  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Philip  Hammond 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
UK growth forecast upgraded amid warning over inflation | Business | The Guardian
NIESR said it remained convinced that the economy would slow this year as higher inflation reduced consumer spending power. “We expect the composition of growth to rebalance towards net trade, as the headwinds facing households from the erosion of their real incomes weigh on consumer spending while the depreciation of sterling supports net trade,” said Simon Kirby, NIESR’s head of macroeconomic forecasting. [...] The thinktank said its economic modelling showed that the benefits of the free-trade deals the government hopes to sign with the US, Canada and leading emerging economies would be dwarfed by the damage caused to exports of both goods and services to the EU.
Brexit  inflation  £  British  Pound  export  import  economic  damage  history  free  trade  deal  USA  EU  living  standard 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
UK inflation: now it's the pound in your pocket being devalued | Business | The Guardian
According to the National Institute for Economic & Social Research inflation is heading towards 4% as the effect of Brexit uncertainty keeps the pound low and imports expensive. [...] The government has pledged to double down on austerity from April, with cuts to tax credits and other benefits as well as the savings made over the last five years.

Such a sharp spike in prices will strain household finances, especially when wages growth is expected to remain at around 2.5%.

Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders said last week that developments in the labour market such as zero-hour contracts and agency working meant wages were unlikely to take off any time soon. [...] [ rise in unsecured credit 2008 levels, and personal bankruptcies not easier (online) to do and 2016 personal bankruptcies were up ~16% ]
UK  Brexit  living  standard  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  growth  GDP  recovery  GFC  inflation  £  British  Pound  Precariat  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  technological  unemployment  Productivity  output  gap  part-time  zero  hour  contract  Contractor  Self-Employment  gig  economy  1099  economic  history  Austerity  tax  credit  consumer  debt  household  Card  BOE  bankruptcies  bankruptcy  underinvestment 
january 2017 by asterisk2a
Weetabix warns it may raise prices due to fall in pound since Brexit vote | Business | The Guardian
Although the company harvests wheat in Northamptonshire, it is sold in US dollars on global markets, meaning the cost in pounds to buy wheat in the UK has gone up. Like other packaged food makers, it has been squeezed by the plunging value of sterling since last June, which has raised the cost of imported goods or globally traded commodities priced in US dollars. On Monday, Weetabix said it was in discussions with retailers about price increases. [ interesting to acknowledge, food is now owned by multinational conglomerates and or private capital/equity ] &! BEER - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/30/brexit-weak-pound-threatens-craft-beer-revolution-say-brewers
Brexit  inflation  £  British  Pound  living  standard  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  UK  Food–industrial  complex  beer 
january 2017 by asterisk2a
Toy prices expected to rise after pound's Brexit plunge | Business | The Guardian
Lego and Peppa Pig makers among those saying cost of products could increase as economic uncertainty weighs on sterling
Brexit  inflation  UK 
january 2017 by asterisk2a
Weak UK productivity spurs warnings of living standards squeeze | Business | The Guardian
The north of England and Midlands ranged between 10% and 15% below the UK average. [...] Sluggish productivity growth will intensify the pressure on workers as they face rising living costs, [...] “These are disappointing figures overall, with little sign that the persistent underperformance on productivity is coming to an end. Many organisations will be unable to offer higher wages as a result, meaning significant numbers of workers will feel poorer in 2017 if inflation continues to rise as anticipated,” he said.
UK  Productivity  wage  growth  income  inflation  living  standard  disposable  discretionary  spending  Brexit  working  poor  poverty  squeezed  middle  class  Austerity  underinvestment  export  skills  gap  education  policy 
january 2017 by asterisk2a
UK credit binge approaching levels not seen since 2008 crash | Business | The Guardian
//&! http://bit.ly/2j5VMET - Shoppers are still pulling out the plastic, but borrowing may become less choice and more necessity as budgets are squeezed //&! http://bit.ly/2hW63rg - BOE unable to put "irrational behavior" into models, ie credit binge. //&! wrong for BOE to compare levels to GDP! http://bit.ly/2iR2fGY - AUSTERITY UK KEPT AFLOAT BY CONSUMER CREDIT BINGE! - 2015 economy growth was 80% consumer! &! Carney Warning Jan 2017 - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38644963
credit  card  car  loan  consumer  debt  household  mortgage  Property  bubble  UK  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  wage  growth  inflation  BOE  payday  auto  recovery  GFC  economic  history  Consumerism  materialism  Brexit  irrational  behavior  debtoverhang  austerity  ZIRP  NIRP  QE 
january 2017 by asterisk2a
Brexit racism and civil war but what else does 2017 hold for politics? - YouTube
people visibly not white prone to abuse by ideological fanatic Leave Voters. [...] Door that this protest vote opened already closing. Tories and May leaving the JAM's already hanging ... ie by making British Human Rights Act to repeal EHCR a cornerstone of 2020 general election. [...] "things already slipping a bit" [...] ///&! Brexit fallout: UK is "less happy and more racist" than six months ago - https://youtu.be/Vl_KFpG0-EE --- views Gov is London Centric!
Brexit  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  2020  JAM  Austerity  inflation  working  poor  poverty  squeezed  middle  class  affordable  housing  property  bubble  wage  growth  secular  stagnation  economic  history  recovery  income  inequality  Westminster  Whitehall  gini  Coefficient  trap  homelessness  homeless  immigration  EEA  stigma  racism  Xenophobia  prejudice  bigotry  Nationalism  Precariat  social 
january 2017 by asterisk2a
Rail fares cost commuters up to 14% of their income, says study | Money | The Guardian
Some season tickets cost six times as much as those in Europe, say campaigners, as average 2.3% fare increase comes into effect
UK  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  inflation  Brexit  housing  crisis  affordable  social  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  mobility  wage  growth 
january 2017 by asterisk2a
Rising cost of essentials leaves UK households with less cash for treats | Business | The Guardian
Households are being left with less cash to spend on treats or to stash away as savings as the rising cost of essentials like food and fuel take a bigger chunk out of family budgets.
Brexit  inflation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  UK  working  poor  child  tax  credit  Austerity  squeezed  middle  class 
december 2016 by asterisk2a
Welcome to Poundland, where life is bliss if you’re a foreign buyer | Andrew Rawnsley | Opinion | The Guardian
The dramatic plunge in the value of sterling is an early indicator of the price to be paid for Brexit [...] Remainers who had warned that divorcing the EU would unleash severe economic shocks were left looking a bit foolish because those consequences did not materialise immediately. The Outers had a success during the referendum in persuading many voters to ignore the “so-called” experts on the other side and their cautions that there would be a steep bill to pay. [...] If making your currency cheaper was the route to riches, our streets ought to be encrusted with diamonds by now. [ it is in policy! ]
Sterling  British  Pound  FX  foreign  exchange  Brexit  inflation  CPI  RPI  Triple  Lock  Pension  Rail  Fares  working  poor  living  standard  wage  growth  devaluation 
october 2016 by asterisk2a
Sterling: A political animal | FT Markets - YouTube
fx vigilante. bond figilante. collective market doesnt like brexit. thus sells off. NO BUYING INTEREST! now £ is a political currency!!! // fall of £ is a painful solution to possible adjustment towards healthier economy. // E/£ parity by end of next year as we get concrete about exit with negotiations. this is uk prob not eu prob, brexit.
Brexit  foreign  exchange  FX  British  Pound  Sterling  FDI  direct  investment  current  account  deficit  currency  war  devaluation  budget  BOE  Mark  Carney  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  inflation  RPI  CPI  property  bubble  fiscal  monetary  policy  austerity  GDP 
october 2016 by asterisk2a
Brexit fallout: top brands pulled from Tescos as food prices set to rise by 5 percent - YouTube
Unilever is anglo-dutch and reports in euros thus fall in £ against euro is a profit/margin squeeze bc internally at unilever they did not protect themselves in FX market w options against eventual Brexit fallout! unilevers internal analysis was apparently for no vote. // & that manufacturing and exports flourish. you have to invest in industry. industry of the future 10 years down the road. which means FDI, internal business investment (rising business confidence uk wide and world wide for international uk businesses), and gov investment w long term plan 10-20 years. for the next gen. explicitly for the next gen. quasi for the 0-40 year olds.
FDI  foreign  direct  investment  British  Pound  £  Sterling  exchange  rate  Brexit  trustagent  business  confidence  consumer  inflation  RPI  CPI 
october 2016 by asterisk2a
Post-Brexit sterling slump costs Easyjet £40m, says boss
costs increase by £40m [...] Carolyn McCall told the BBC the drop had made fuel - which the firm pays for in US dollars - more expensive. She added that the increased cost of travelling abroad is deterring some British holidaymakers.
Sterling has lost more than 10% of its value against the dollar since Brexit.
Ms McCall's comments came as Easyjet released its quarterly results, which warned that the company is earning less from each passenger.
Brexit  GBP  Sterling  British  Pound  Forex  inflation 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann - Brexit is no excuse to loosen EU budget rules
Reuters report that this puts Weidmann at odds with German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who has called for Europe's "Stability and Growth Pact" to be boosted for more growth.
-
So, we've got a politician wanting to spend more.
And the head of the Buba saying "No!"

Same old :-D //&! http://news.forexlive.com/!/germany-will-stick-to-balanced-budget-report-20160701
lost  decade  Brexit  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  BuBa  Bundesbank  ECB  MarioDraghi  trichet  Angela  Merkel  austerity  budget  deficit  Germany  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  liquidity  trap  Mark  Blyth  economic  history  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  inflation  expectations  recovery  Jens  Weidmann  monetary  policy  global  economy  Schwarze  Null  Exportweltmeister  Beton  Gold  Betongold  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Richard  Koo  European  Union  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  NPL  PIGS  non-performing  loan  underinvestment 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Alan Greenspan on Brexit, U.S. Economy, and Inflation (Full Interview) - YouTube
UK out of Euro Currency but part of free trade single market was best option on table. // lack of leadership for political union and fiscal union aka ever closer union. not just currency and trade union (free trade). // GET AT THE ROOT ISSUE; productivity, ageing population (entitlement crisis), stagnant wages, secular stagnation = desperate population // European banks some still burdened by sov debt crisis/NPL (= zombie banks) & NIRP & QE & lack of uptake in business & consumer loans. // no back-up to the ECB (balance sheet) yet. what happens if the EURO stops being a hard currency? get Greece out, is a liability. // EU can not go on in Status Quo indefinitely. ie funding southern states. States have to get on course of economic harmony! everyone has to give up something! // Precariat/Squeezed Middle Class/Social Mobility = creates desperate people. // Entitlements are a legal issues. Productivity and Growth Rates can't fund entitlements. = There will be a crisis. // Career Politicians won't touch it. // History (look at M2) this environment ends up in inflation. not time or data.
European  Union  Brexit  fiscal  Political  Union  ECB  Alan  Greenspan  Fed  Yanis  Varoufakis  Janet  Yellen  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  secular  stagnation  productivity  gap  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  ageing  population  current  account  deficit  budget  deficit  GFC  entitlement  spending  Abenomics  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  pension  obligation  babyboomers  Baby  Boomers  immigration  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  Germany  Angela  Merkel  BOE  Mark  Carney  rising  middleclass  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  populism  demagogue  demagogy  Donald  Trump  western  world  savings  rate  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  triple-lock  pension  pension  fund  pension  scheme  democracy  Career  Politicians  politician  output  gap  M2  inflation  targeting  M3  commodity  prices  global  economy 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
Firms plan to quit UK as City braces for more post-Brexit losses | Business | The Guardian
The IoD said a quarter of the members polled in a survey were putting hiring plans on hold, while 5% said they were set to make workers redundant. Nearly two-thirds of those polled said the outcome of the referendum was negative for their business. One in five respondents, out of a poll of more than 1,000 business leaders, were considering moving some of their operations outside of the UK. //&! The chief executive of Deutsche Bank – which employs 11,000 in the City – has played down the long-term impact. John Cryan, who is British, told Handelsblatt: “The financial centre won’t die but it will get weaker.” - bit.ly/28WkoMZ
Brexit  recession  City  of  London  European  Union  FDI  foreign  direct  investment  GBP  current  account  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  BOE  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  British  Pound  uncertainty 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT ON THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: THE MOST DAMNING STATISTIC!
If you want to understand how an economy is performing and how sustainable its economic growth then look at the current account balance. Officially it is often ignored and there are attempts to play down its significance. After all it is always only just a few years away from an election so the very short term is considered much more important than the long term strength and economic health of the economy. Dire straits is not an underestimate of the current damaged state of the UK economy and indeed many other western economies. [ affordable only bc of City of London (Banking and Co.)! - bit.ly/297c6D3 - Novara Media - The City: In Conversation with Tony Norfield ]
UK  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  fiscal  deficit  Brexit  western  world  secular  stagnation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  austerity  aggregate  demand  USA  Manufacturing  industrial  policy  energy  policy  GBP  City  of  London  book  British  Empire  unitedkingdom  standard  of  living  living  standard  economic  history 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
Stocks are up. But it appears to us that the U.S. economy is going down. Go figure.
velocity is at 57yr low - WOW! the money that is in circulation is in less hands! the econ expanded according to GDP, but less and less $ reach on avg each hand. - "This is serious. The velocity of money tracks how often each dollar is used to buy something in the economy. Falling velocity shows that consumers and business are pulling back… becoming more reluctant to spend and invest… downsizing… and holding onto dollars rather than spending them. This has a similar effect as reducing the supply of money bidding for goods and services. Prices drop. Deflation, in other words. The bubble has developed a leak. The hot air is gushing out." //&! bit.ly/1MOxc9A //&! research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V &! pieria.co.uk/articles/getting_things_wrong_federal_reserve_style - it is associated with stagnant NGDP [...] demand problem.
monetary  velocity  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  measurement  GDP  recovery  reflate  reflation  economic  history  money  supply  Fed  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Gini  coefficient  inequality  economic  harm  economic  damage  GFC  crony  capitalism  shareholder  capitalism  Greed  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  squeezed  middle  class  Elizabeth  Warren  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  Robert  Reich  Thomas  Piketty  2016  UK  USA  secular  stagnation  Pact  fiscal  stimulus  austerity  Schuldenbremse  social  mobility  income  mobility  working  poor  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  Service  Sector  Jobs  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  inflation  targeting  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomic  policy  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  self-regulation  book  shareholder  value  Wall  Street  meritocracy  meritocratic  post-racial  America  barackobama  Larry  Summers  Bernie  Sanders  Establishment  Privileged  deregulation  bank  bailout  social  safety  net  welfare  state  aggregate  demand 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Tyler Cowen: "The Great Stagnation", Michael Vassar & Cowen Debate at Singularity Summit 2011
gains are harder to come by! low hanging fruit gone. [...] VISION IS NEEDED TO GET THE JOB DONE.
secular  stagnation  western  world  underinvestment  R&D  R&D  innovation  Innovators  Dilemma  rentier  rent-seeking  oligopol  oligopoly  winner  take  all  babyboomers  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  austerity  triple-lock  pension  pension  obligation  recovery  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  No  Representation  lobby  Career  Politicians  OAP  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  sick  population  health  crisis  economic  damage  climate  crisis  climate  change  global  warming  productivity  gap  output  gap  GDP  measurement  GNP  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  BRIC  creative  destruction  Mobile  Debt  Super  Cycle  servitude  servicing  service  income  tax  receipts  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Moore's  Law  COP21  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  OECD  IMF  crony  capitalism  Privileged  Establishment  shareholder  capitalism  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  shareholder  value  revolving  door  Wall  Street  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  disposable  income  trickle-down  economics  neoliberal  neoliberalism  discretionary  spending  renewable  energy  infrastructure  investment  Smart  Grid  AI  artificial  intelligence  augmented  intelligence  Autonomous  Cars  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  New  stagnation 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Piketty: EU should welcome one million immigrants a year
"The European Union has the capacity to absorb a large flow of migrants, one million per year in terms of inflow net of outflow," he said.
"This is exactly what we had between 2000 and 2010 and this was working in the sense that unemployment was being reduced.
"The problem is - with the austerity policies and with the recession - now we are in a situation where it's very difficult in particular with southern Europe, with the terrible economic situation that we have created there in particular." [...] The population of the EU has only risen by 0.2% a year since 1995, he argues, compared to 1.2% for the world's population over the same period.
According to Eurostat, the official statistical arm of the European Commission, a total of 3.4 million people came to the EU during 2013. Some 2.8 million left, leaving a net immigration figure of around 600,000. [S]low growth [...] exacerbated not just by a lack of immigration but also by austerity policies aimed at reducing public expenditure. [EU in recession 2011 forward]
immigration  migration  refugee  crisis  Integrationspolitik  Sozialpolitik  youth  unemployment  austerity  GFC  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  ageing  population  demographic  bubble  social  safety  net  pension  obligation  economic  history  welfare  state  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  plutocracy  oligarchy  Precariat  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  hartz-iv  Aufstocker  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  ALG2  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Minijob  part-time  employment  Contractor  self-employment  Zero  Hour  Contract  underinvestment  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Robert  Skidelsky  bank  bailout  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Leadership  Wall  Street  shareholder  capitalism  crony  capitalism  lobby  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  democracy  European  Union  UK  Elizabeth  Warren  Paul  Krugman  Robert  Reich  Joseph  Stiglitz  carbon  tax  policy  folly  policy  error  right-wing  far-right  Rechtsruck  recovery  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  finite  resources  resource  depletion  GNP  GDP  GDP  measurement  profit  maximisation  profit  shareholder  policy  income  inequality  income 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of England blames falling pound on Brexit fears
The BoE said disappointing business investment and the weaker outlook for global trade would offset the impact of a cheaper pound and keep inflation in check in the short term before a rise to its 2% target within the next two years.

The Bank’s nine-strong monetary policy committee (MPC) also unanimously voted to keep its quantitative easing asset purchase scheme on hold at £375bn in response to a mixed bag of indicators that it said would keep GDP growth on an upward, though subdued path. [...] [ BREXIT EFFECT, sterling down] It may also delay some spending decisions and depress growth in aggregate demand in the near term. Overall, however, the committee judges that the outlook for domestic activity to be little changed from the time of the February inflation report,” the MPC said. [...] [ CARNEY ALSO SUPPORTS FISCAL STIMULUS! ]
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  Mark  Carney  budget2016  UK  wage  growth  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  George  Osborne  recovery  secular  stagnation  underinvestment  business  confidence  business  cycle  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  Brexit  aggregate  demand  economic  history  fiscal  stimulus  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
ECB reveals surprise stimulus moves - BBC News
[C]ut its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% as part of a package of measures intended to revive the eurozone economy.
The bank will also expand its quantitative easing programme from €60bn to €80bn a month.
The ECB also decided to further cut its bank deposit rate, from minus 0.3% to minus 0.4%.
The measures, including the decision to cut the main interest rate, were more radical than investors had expected. John Hardy, head of currency strategy at Saxo Bank, said: "This was a much bigger bazooka than the market was expecting and shows the ECB trying to get ahead of the confidence curve after learning its lesson in December."
The stimulus measures announced three months ago have largely failed to drive economic growth higher or boost inflation. //&! bit.ly/1TP0XJJ - Volles Risiko &! bit.ly/1P8hncF &! bit.ly/1RCF3Tp &! Market Reaction - bit.ly/1LeOrjo &! bit.ly/1RTBJ95 - no investment bc aggregate demand not rising //&! bbc.in/225Eexl
ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  inflation  targeting  LTRO  TLTRO  deflation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  Oil  price  commodity  prices  squeezed  middle  class  demographic  bubble  zombie  banks  global  economy  Richard  Koo  liquidity-trap  liquidity  trap  underinvestment  aggregate  demand  distortion 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Central bankers on the defensive as weird policy becomes even weirder | Business | The Guardian
Growth is tepid, productivity is poor, and inflation is too low: all is not going according to policymakers’ masterplans [...] As far as the OECD is concerned, monetary policy is being forced to take too much of the strain. Its chief economist Catherine Mann made the point that lasting recovery required three things: stimulative monetary policy; activist fiscal policy; and structural reform. The OECD wants the second of these ingredients to be added to the recipe in the form of increased spending on public infrastructure, something it says would more than pay for itself at a time when governments can borrow so cheaply.
monetary  policy  G20  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  UK  western  world  USA  Japan  Abenomics  George  Osborne  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  productivity  underinvestment  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  Taper  deflationary  deflation  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  zombie  banks  MervynKing  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  discretionary  spending  distortion  property  bubble  disposable  income  productive  investment  austerity  business  confidence  foreign  direct  investment  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  policy  folly  policy  error  short-termism  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  self-regulation  City  of  London  investment  banking  retail  banking  OECD  IMF  KennethRogoff  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  trust 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: Ökonomen halten Ende des Wachstums für unvermeidlich - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Weltwirtschaft: Ökonomen halten Ende des Wachstums für unvermeidlich [...] Ein Beispiel: Wenn das Bruttosozialprodukt eines Landes 10 Milliarden Euro beträgt und um eine Milliarde Euro wächst, dann entspricht das einer Steigerung von zehn Prozent. Wenn das BIP aber 1000 Milliarden Euro beträgt, dann müsste die Wirtschaft schon um 100 Milliarden Euro wachsen, um ein Wachstum von zehn Prozent zu schaffen. Wächst das BIP wie vorher um eine Milliarde Euro, entspricht das nur noch einer Steigerung von 0,1 Prozent. Die Wirtschaft wäre dann sozusagen ausgewachsen. Die alten Zeiten kehren nicht mehr zurück [...] Sollten die Ökonomen recht haben, hätte das für Staat und Sozialsysteme einschneidende Folgen: Die Planung von Bundeshaushalt oder Rentenkasse geht von einem Wachstum irgendwo zwischen ein und zwei Prozent pro Jahr aus. [...] Die Wirtschaft "unabhängiger vom Wachstum gestalten"
G20  George  Osborne  UK  austerity  Europe  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  Germany  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  budget  deficit  economic  history  finite  resources  resource  depletion  economic  growth  global  economy  policy  monetary  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  Japan  Abenomics  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  AI  artificial  intelligence  Robotics  self-driving  cars  autonomous  car  structural  unemployment  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  productivity  output  gap  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  low  pay  low  income  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  underinvestment  marginal  cost  competitiveness  energy  policy  energy  price  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  economics  of  abundance  post-capitalism  Larry  Summers  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  democracy  social  democracy  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  free  market  self-regulation  neoliberalism  neoliberal  education  policy  income  inequality  GDP  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  liquidity  trap  credit  bubble  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  USA 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What Really Caused the Crisis and What to Do About It - YouTube
"There are not perfect markets, and there is no perfect planner. [...] we will never arrive at perfect solutions. [...] market will never allocate perfectly ... [...] market will always tend to lend to property and land, and less into productive means (businesses = risk of 100 loss, land or property ... you have a loss when you sell it. << China, UK ) [...] not all credit is good credit. [...] need for macroprudential policy to dampen bubbles bc rate hikes could dampen normal non-speculative area of economy. ie loan to value limits [...] interest rate setting is blunt hammer that people though is the magic wand along the line of self-regulation, free market, neoliberalism and trickle-down [...] GFC can be traced back to the 60-70's - macroecon + micro with absurd assumptions (ie rational expectations, equilibriums, no bubbles) & math & pure theoretical base (no empirical analysis ie of what banks really do ie greed) = makes job of economist as policy advisor real easy.
bank  crisis  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  book  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  western  world  dogma  ideology  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  economic  history  credit  bubble  output  gap  productivity  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  asset  allocation  economics  investment  banking  zombie  banks  retail  banking  financial  product  CDS  CDO  hunt  for  yield  VAR  risk  aversion  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Glass-Steagall  self-regulation  regulators  regulation  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  arbitrage  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  BOE  zombie  consumer  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  corporations  NPL  junk  bond  realestate  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  equilibrium  disequilibrium  Economist  economists  Adair  Turner  hayek 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Japan's economy shrinks again as Abenomics is blown off course | World news | The Guardian
Japan’s economy shrank at an annualised rate of 1.4% in the last quarter of 2015, new figures showed on Monday, dealing a further blow to attempts by the prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to lift the country out of stagnation. [...] The Bank of Japan’s recent decision to adopt negative interest rates – a move that was supposed to encourage banks to lend to businesses – has not had the desired effect. //&! On Abenomics ... inflation targeting - bit.ly/1mwrUm7 - & He has barely started to address the structural reforms comprising the “third arrow” of Abenomics: a shrinking and ageing workforce and the urgent need to boost the role of women in the economy.
Japan  Abenomics  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  inflation  targeting  economic  history  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombi  banks  Richard  Koo  western  world  demographic  bubble  ageing  population 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Interview With Mohamed El-Erian: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View
7:50 New Normal is secular stagnation and decades-long NIRP, ZIRP, QE distortion. structural, secular. no cyclical recovery. but long secular challenges; prolonged period of low growth. // also inequality! // currently policy makers subsidise debtors, subsidise creditors - financial repression. promote risk taking. // richard koo would not agree with el-erian's notion that gov balance sheets are same as household balance sheets. // 12:10 demographic issue! political. and economic elements in it of secular stagnation. [...] borrowing growth // rise of far-right! // corps sitting on cash // inequality! // bc of lived in artificial world of borrowed growth, created massive divergence. // min 15:30 richard koo would not agree that central banks are the only game in town. central banks have complained abt austerity gov. // min 20 - Feds intellectually inflexible. comfort zone. self-regulation & great moderation. // reflation didnt work bc no fixed fundamentals // perfect storm! lost trust.
New  Normal  financial  repression  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  secular  stagnation  GFC  credit  bubble  book  western  world  emerging  middle  class  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Paul  Krugman  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Joseph  Stiglitz  distortion  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  system  retirement  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  far-right  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Pact  Schuldenbremse  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  reflate  reflation  trust  trustagent  distrust  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  public  sentiment  public  perception  bank  bailout  Japan  Abenomics  AIIB  IMF  China  BRIC  self-regulation  Great  Moderation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Amid market turmoil and confusion, there are four key economic trends shaping society
The UK economy currently gets nowhere near its target of 2%. Inflation would decrease the value of current debts, making them less of a burden. In a world without much inflation, it is hard to get wages up. The worse case scenario is that debt costs increase, as prices and wages stagnate. [ ignoring debt and income growth - stagnation at their peril - youtu.be/KIaXVntqlUE - gov is no household budget, Steve Keen + Richard Koo ] [...] And in this age of austerity, these factors will work against governments seeking to reduce the welfare bill. Recent data shows that, in UK cities, growing numbers of low paid jobs have led to rising claims for welfare such as housing benefits, defeating the government’s aims to reduce spending.
economic  history  secular  stagnation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  inflation  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  minimum  wage  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  tax  credit  housing  benefit  working  tax  credit  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  western  world  GDP  wage  inflation  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  inequality  income  inequality  income  redistribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  monetary  system  monetary  theory  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  banks  monetary  velocity  Niall  Ferguson  NPL  junk  bond  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  China  credit  BRIC  output  gap  productivity  industrial  policy  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  property  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  money  supply  faultlines  global  imbalances  recovery  working  poor  Precariat 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
SPERI Annual Lecture 2015: 'The Failure of Austerity' by Lord Robert Skidelsky - YouTube
economic history - "state spending inherently unproductive." // borrowing is deferred taxation - David Richardo - Rational expectations. Market economy always tended full employment. // Theory and Facts did not align. Keynes realised it post-war. Private investment is inherently volatile, ie slump conditions. state to offset underinvestment of private sector and match their retreat. getting rid of abnormal unemployment. done through monetary expansion (QE) and put onto state balance sheet available to spend. // Where 2009 forward QE got to banks ... // Paul Krugman - Confidence Fairy. // "Look after employment, and the budget will look after itself." but today it's the bond holders confidence who shapes budgets. // Keynes 'it is the long-term confidence of businesses that shape investment, confidence in state to no let a slump happen again.' but austerity, out of ammo talk, political-, social environment/sentiment & Osborne's '2016 will be tough year' speech were counter-productive.
austerity  economic  history  Robert  Skidelsky  Richard  Koo  David  Ricardo  sovereign  debt  crisis  underinvestment  productive  investment  competitiveness  competitive  public  utility  public  investment  education  policy  public  transportation  Good  infrastructure  investment  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  George  Osborne  trickle-down  economics  tax  code  progressive  taxation  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Chicago  School  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Pact  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Schuldenbremse  western  world  Paul  Krugman  political  folly  political  theory  political  economy  political  error  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  financial  cycle  Greed  economic  cycle  inflation  expectation  expectations  Super  debt  servitude  GFC  recovery  Conservative  Party  fearmongering  Fear  Career  Politicians  nasty  David  Cameron  PR  spin  doctor 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
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january 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
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january 2016 by asterisk2a
The Great Unraveling Looms - Blame The 'Austrians'? | Zero Hedge
Well, well: who would have believed it. First the Bank for International Settlements comes out with a paper that links credit booms to the boom-bust business cycle, then Britain's Adam Smith Institute publishes a paper by Anthony Evans that recommends the Bank of England should ditch its powers over monetary policy and move towards free banking. [...] The BIS paper will be the more influential of the two in policy circles, and this is not the first time the BIS has questioned the macroeconomic assumptions behind the actions of the major central banks. [...] Targeting nominal GDP is not a perfect answer.
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january 2016 by asterisk2a
Profit mean reversion and recession | Credit Writedowns
We are now in the seventh year of a cyclical recovery and bull market. Shares have tripled in that time frame. I would say this means we are much closer to the end of the business cycle than the beginning. Moreover, as Jeremy Grantham is quoted in the Business Insider piece, profits are mean-reverting and right now they are reverting from a phase that is “wildly optimistic” according to Warren Buffett. All of this is taking place against the backdrop of an economy in which wage growth is weak, household debt is still relatively high on a historic basis as a percentage of income and we have no policy room on the monetary side, with limited political appetite for policy on the fiscal side. To me, the pre-conditions for this profits recession speak to downside risk, ....
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october 2015 by asterisk2a
UK interest rates held at 0.5% after 8-1 Bank vote - BBC News
The central bank said cost pressures in the UK's labour market were rising too slowly for inflation to return to the Bank's 2% target, and that inflation would stay below 1% until spring 2016. Inflation has been hovering around 0% for the past few months, but the Bank had indicated that robust domestic growth and the fading effect of last year's big oil price falls would cause it to bounce back towards 2% next year. Although UK consumer spending had remained resilient, bolstered by wage growth, attempts to reduce the UK budget deficit had restrained activity and global growth had been below average.
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october 2015 by asterisk2a
Fed chief Yellen says US rate rise still likely this year - BBC News
The US remains "on track" for an interest rate rise this year, Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen has said. The central bank head said as long as inflation was stable and the US economy was strong enough to boost jobs, the conditions would be right for a rise. Despite expectations of a rise this month, the Fed held rates, in part due to fears about global economic growth. Ms Yellen, speaking at the University of Massachusetts, said US economic prospects "generally appear solid". Speaking a week after the Fed delayed that long-anticipated hike, she said she and other policymakers did not expect recent global economic and financial market developments to significantly affect the central bank's policy. Much recent inflationary weakness is due to special and likely temporary factors, such as a strong dollar and low oil prices, she said. //&! http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-25/janet-yellen-s-flip-flop-confuses-markets
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England may cut rates, says chief economist - BBC News
Softening employment figures and weakening surveys on manufacturing and construction output suggested growth in the UK could slow in the second half of the year and inflation might not pick up as expected. Furthermore, problems in emerging markets could be a drag on UK growth and the headwinds from those economies were unlikely to abate any time soon, Mr Haldane added. //&! In a wide-ranging speech that called on central bankers to think more radically to fend off the next downturn – including the notion of abolishing cash – Haldane warned the UK was not ready for higher borrowing costs. He described recent events in Greece and China as "the latest leg of what might be called a three-part crisis trilogy."
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: BIZ warnt vor Krediten in Schwellenländern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich sieht Alarmzeichen für Banken in vielen Schwellenländern. Die Kreditvergabe in China, Brasilien oder der Türkei habe ein bedrohliches Verhältnis angenommen, warnt die Notenbank. // &! Die Welt steuert auf den Bankrott zu (QE trap): Eine vorläufige Antwort: Das tieferliegende Problem besteht darin, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt auf den Bankrott zubewegt - und das wird umso schneller gehen, je höher die Zinsen sind und je niedriger die Preissteigerungsraten.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Is Global Economic Doubt Behind the Unchanged Rate? - YouTube
youtu.be/f5_AGIMe32k // much higher $ already put ~25bps on US domestic market. // Fed is a risk manager now // labour market got a check mark, but not inflation bc of tech, stronger$ (taper anticipation), commodities lower, further deflationary pressures (retail price fighting 4 increase like4like sales), globalisation (competition), secular stagnation (continued low growth in western world, lower aggregate demand overall, lower baseline), consumer unable 2pickup where it threw in hat (deleveraging, no savings, debt overhang household, consumer). A new normal of growth of ~3% (give/take) globally aggregate & western wrld (2-2.5%, EU aggregate even lower). In this world, THERE WILL BE NO INFLATION PRESSURE (2% or higher, &3bn ppl free labour wrldwide) IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS THE REAL ECONOMY 4 EVERY DAY FOLK DOESNT REFLECT REFLATED ASSET PRICES via QE, ZIRP, credit bubbles arnd world enabled by central banks. &! youtu.be/NVa5fkz8X0o &! youtu.be/Ny3bbonX3d0 &! 1.usa.gov/1JdKZxp
Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  2015  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Janet  Yellen  participation  rate  employment  underemployed  full  employment  unemployment  structural  unemployment  USA  China  BRIC  credit  bubble  complexity  global  economy  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  property  bubble  BIS  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  secular  stagnation  western  world  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Super  Rich  1%  faultlines  savings  glut  Impediments  structural  imbalance  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  disposable  income  income  inequality  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  UK  BOE  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  security  labour  market  recovery  policy  response  fiscal  policy  austerity  Schuldenbremse  Pact  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: Good news! B rounds have doubled in value over five years!
B Round! doubling down on (to a certain point) proven ideas as they move to make themselves solid/viable (building business model & continued growth if not even putting some more gasoline on the fire with a B Round - allocation of resources). thus there is competition thus bidding up in a private market. BUT BUT also reflects the rising cost! Rising cost to grow, the war for talent to scale, and the cost in said hubs/ecosystems where the talent are already working on scaling other companies, where rent is sky high and space rare to expand office, ops, ramp up head count, ... // why, on a side note!, ? because global ZIRP, NIRP, QE, hunt for yield, FOMO, property speculation, alternative asset management and allocation (newly minted paper millionaers) have bid up prices in metropolitan and hot cities by credit bubbles around the world. bc financial markets are global, thus your allocation/diversification is global, not limited where ur home addr is. adding to volatiliy too bc of froth!
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &! youtu.be/SZe3issLIb8
Raghuram  Rajan  BIS  centralbanks  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  excess  reserves  speculative  bubbles  reflate  reflation  economic  history  faultlines  credit  bubble  BRIC  2015  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  secular  stagnation  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  globalization  globalisation  financial  market  zombie  banks  savings  glut  business  confidence  business  investment  USA  UK  Europe  China  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  speculative  speculation  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  ECB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  deflationary  deflation  fiscal  policy  irrational  exuberance  panic  hubris  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Taper  book  structural  imbalance  Impediments  reserve  currency  fiat  currency  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  fiscal  deficit  fiscal  stimulus  Germany  austerity  dogma  ideology  credibility  Career  Politicians  Pact  Schuldenbremse  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  complexity  incomplete  information  shadow  banking  uncertainty  volatility  distortion  financial  repression  governance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Public Lecture by Professor Niall Ferguson 2013-04-09 - YouTube
[6 Killer Apps - youtu.be/xpnFeyMGUs8 ] Degeneration and Regeneration after the GFC // interlude: Margaret Thatcher, the power of ideas in public office, in politics: Nature of freedom, economic freedom & other freedoms. Hayek & Adam Smith // The Great Degeneration (new Book 2013). Theme: The role of institutions in the creation and preservation of freedom. // GFC = "The slight depression." Avoided Great Depression like scenario by policy response (reflation) different to previous history. Talks abt equity market levels back 2 pre-2007 levels. EQUITY/(financial) ASSET PRICES. Bank Bailout! But NOT reached (real economy) escape velocity! Proper recovery! Under Keynes it should be an admission of defeat (bc lack of fiscal stimulus)! Is a sub-plot in the story of western decline! Great reconvergence of west & the rest of the world. // &! youtu.be/VVsP2X4kuA8 &! importance of civil institutions - youtu.be/8RB7Ah95RM4 bit.ly/1NqF7am &! youtu.be/kXTjj9NQKYo &! youtu.be/tyYTChxYAQ4
NiallFerguson  Niall  Ferguson  Margaret  Thatcher  economic  history  political  economy  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  book  Adam  Smith  adamsmith  austerity  ideology  dogma  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  USA  UK  China  history  social  contract  social  cohesion  social  tension  socialism  capitalism  crony  capitalism  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  hayek  reflate  reflation  Fed  ECB  BOJ  BOE  Makers  BIS  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  bank  bailout  sovereign  debt  crisis  banking  crisis  zombie  banks  excess  reserves  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  business  confidence  Taper  2015  secular  stagnation  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  economic  growth  global  trade  global  economy  globalization  global  imbalances  globalisation  flat  world  borderless  liquidity  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  fiscal  stimulus  aggregate  demand  marginal  propensity  to  consume  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt  Richard  Koo  private  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  developed  world  western  world  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  BRIC  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Developing  Frontier  Markets  inflation  inflation  business  targetin 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why did Japan stop growing? Professor Takeo Hoshi at ANU - YouTube
Blyth argued its culture/society & structural. TPP trade deal might help productivity growth & opening Japan further 2 global trade. & encourage immigration reform. Regulatory reform; stop protection of zombies (gov guarantees, contracts, subsidies), corporate governance. Oversight. Transparency. Also Start-up rate (bottom-up disruption) needs reform (reduce red tape, create start-up/business hubs) // &! What is Abenomics? - youtu.be/_UafzhHzmwE //&! Noriko Hama & Yukio Noguchi "Abenomics and What comes After" - youtu.be/a29FTJXYev0 'unable to share affluence' - income redistribution << marginal propensity to consume, 16% left out of society (poverty), lack of empathy & compassion. BOJ is single lender 2 gov. Career Politicians! Companies have no need 2 borrow/cant force banks 2 lend. //&! min52 Problem of rising long-term interest rates solved w BOJ debt monetisation = inflation (probable near future scenario). &! youtu.be/ArnLHTE0e1g &! youtu.be/wYtJ7Fyn9NA &! youtu.be/AbKeTeb-I_M
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
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