asterisk2a + imbalance   136

Behind the Bond-Stock Divide Is a Big and Risky Bet on Central Banks - WSJ
The idea is that if stocks are rising, bond yields should be climbing too. Here's how to reconcile it. The answer is central banks. If rates are going to stay lower for longer; if more rounds of quantitative easing are coming; if new ways of easing are coming -- the rates should be going down and stocks moving higher. [...] It's about dividends paying more than bonds. 90% of the bond market universe is near 2% or lower. //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-12/germany-about-sell-zero-coupon-10-year-bonds-first-time-ever //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-13/we-just-found-out-who-has-been-buying-all-these-record-low-yielding-bonds - When your nation's bonds are trading with a record low 28bps negative yield (10Y JGBs), everything else in the world (aside from Swiss 10Y) is a relative 'value'...
bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  central  banks  BIS  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  PBOC  secular  stagnation  wage  growth  output  gap  productivity  gap  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  inequality  Gini  coefficient  western  world  rising  middleclass  Asia  BRIC  income  distribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  crony  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  capitalism  neoliberal  neoliberalism  globalisation  global  economy  globalization  free  trade  dividends  underinvestment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  student  debt  consumer  debt  car  loan  property  bubble  speculative  bubble  speculative  bubbles  distortion  asset  allocation  austerity  AI  Robotics  automation  augmented  intelligence  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  skills  shortage  economic  history  Brexit  technological  history  underemployed  underemployment  part-time  deflation  deflationary  JGB 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
What Happens Next (In Europe)?
the odds of another crisis are higher than a rally to fresh records. [...]
“The 2009-2015 rally originated from two main drivers: a massive stimulus, and credit expansion in China,” said Goette, who’s a partner at his firm in Zug, Switzerland and helps oversee 1 billion Swiss francs ($1 billion).

“European earnings have not followed suit so far. Skepticism regarding central-bank operations has started to emerge.”
ECB  Brussels  recovery  reflate  reflation  China  credit  bubble  Germany  PIGS  zombie  banks  European  Bank  Supervision  European  Economic  Area  European  Election  2014  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  MarioDraghi  OMT  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  Brexit  Grexit  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  history  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  Yanis  Varoufakis  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  youth  unemployment  demographic  bubble  OAP  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  liberal  reform  Precariat  precarious  employment  low  pay  low  income  Minijob  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  1  Euro  Job  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  union  union  Rechtsruck  Bundesbank  fault  lines  shareholder  capitalism  bailout  GFC  2016  PBOC  Exportweltmeister  zombie  Financial  Stability  Board  crony  capitalism  Deutsche  Bank  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  Beton  Gold  Betongold  asset  allocation  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  democracy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Russia  Crimea  Ukraine  U 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Mervyn King: new financial crisis is 'certain' without reform of banks | Business | The Guardian
The former Bank of England governor says in his new book that imbalances in the global economy makes a crash inevitable [...] GFC was the fault of the financial system, not individual greedy bankers, in his new book, The End Of Alchemy: Money, Banking And The Future Of The Global Economy [...] “Without reform of the financial system, another crisis is certain, and the failure ... to tackle the disequilibrium in the world economy makes it likely that it will come sooner rather than later,” Lord King wrote. [...] global central banks were caught in a “prisoner’s dilemma” - unable to raise interest rates for fear of stifling the economic recovery, the newspaper reported. [... blame] broken financial system. [...] failure of a system, and the ideas that underpinned it, [...] “Only a fundamental rethink of how we, as a society, organise our system of money and banking will prevent a repetition //&! dailym.ai/21tPG5y
bank  crisis  banking  crisis  investment  banking  self-regulation  retail  banking  Greed  financial  product  regulation  regulators  City  of  London  George  Osborne  Mark  Carney  macroprudential  policy  property  bubble  austerity  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  economic  history  GFC  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  free  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  faultlines  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  distortion  financial  repression  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  China  Brazil  credit  bubble  2016  reflate  reflation  junk  bond  revolving  debt  household  debt  mortgage  market  consumer  debt  UK  IMF  OECD  credit  card  debt  car  loan  BOE  MervynKing  ECB  Fed  Europe  deflationary  deflation  Gini  coefficient  inequality  MarioDraghi  Taper  QT  bonuses  bonus  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  New  Normal  speculative  bubbles  Richard  Koo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  deposit  levy  MarioDraghi  Abenomics  economic  history  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  recovery  Yen  Euro  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  distortion  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  debt  bubble  New  Normal  financial  repression  faultlines  global  economy  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Japan  UK  secular  stagnation  western  world  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflation  Sweden  Switzerland  China  Yuan  JGB  2016  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Super  Cycle  recession  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
"Markets Crash When They're Oversold" | Zero Hedge
Technology Destroying Jobs + While the big driver of the decline in economic growth since the 1980’s has been a structural change from a manufacturing based economy (high multiplier effect) to a service based one (low multiplier effect), it has been exacerbated by the increase in household debt to offset the reduction in wage growth to maintain the standard of living. This is shown clearly in the chart below. [...] In fact, each job created in energy-related areas has had a “ripple effect” of creating 2.8 jobs elsewhere in the economy from piping to coatings, trucking and transportation, restaurants and retail. Simply put, lower oil and gasoline prices may have a bigger detraction on the economy than the “savings” provided to consumers.
Oil  price  shale  gas  fracking  job  creation  USA  2016  Service  Sector  Jobs  Manufacturing  globalization  globalisation  neoliberalism  neoliberal  borderless  flat  world  economic  history  UK  low  income  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  property  bubble  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  job  security  job  market  jobcreation  job-creation  recovery  GFC  dogma  ideology  austerity  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  trade  agreement  TPP  TTIP  NAFTA  CETA  European  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  faultlines  2015  presidency  barackobama  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  George  Osborne  private  debt  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börse: Warum Schwellenländer für die Kurskrise sorgen - Kolumne - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Chronisch überschüssige Leistungsbilanz [ & Over capacity for less/stagnant demand ... + biggest credit bubble (china) popped as the west can't afford more. QE and ZIRP has run it's way! ] [...] Der Grund, warum der deutsche Aktienindex weitaus mehr betroffen ist als andere europäische Indizes, liegt allein an der strukturellen Abhängigkeit der deutschen Industrie von Blasen in anderen Ländern. Anstatt auf bessere Stimmung zu hoffen, sind Anleger gut beraten, sich über den weiteren Verlauf der Schwellenländerkrise Gedanken zu machen. [...] [ Fed taper makes things more difficult to serve debt ] [...] Langfristig sind es die Gewinne und nicht die Zinsen, die die Aktienpreise treiben. //&! China (Asia/BRIC/Frontier Market) Corporate Bond Yields up - bit.ly/1Sme7fV & NPL probably too. //&! If property is biggest item of household wealth in a property bubble (UK, China, ... USA) - bit.ly/1Zpiy8M
trade  deficit  BRIC  credit  bubble  western  world  secular  stagnation  macroeconomic  policy  China  Japan  Germany  UK  USA  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  NPL  shadow  banking  shadow  economy  banking  crisis  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  QT  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  mortgage  market  Fed  BOE  ECB  European  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  private  debt  corporate  debt  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  austerity  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  Russia  OPEC  aggregate  demand  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  Richardkoo  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  student  loan  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  trade  agreement  Hegemony  TPP  TTIP  TISA  CETA  NAFTA  Africa  South  Africa  global  trade  trade  balance  current  account  deficit  Frontier  Markets  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Taper  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  Abenomics  economic  history  India  irrational  exuberance  Robert  Shiller  inequality  Gini  coefficient  deflationary 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Perhaps austerity didn't choke off UK recovery - BBC News
But, as I mentioned, the disclosure that we were a bit richer in the last parliament than we thought is not all fabulous news for the chancellor. He and his Treasury colleagues should probably be anxious that the faster growth did not translate into higher tax revenues. In case you need reminding, George Osborne singularly failed to hit the deficit reduction targets he set himself. But the explanation can no longer be that the economy flatlined, because that's not what happened. So if the higher-than-thought growth in the last parliament left the gap between government revenues and expenditures tens of billions of pounds greater than George Osborne hoped, it also suggests that his aspiration of eliminating the deficit in this parliament may prove equally elusive. //&! Despite strong employment growth, wage growth remained historically weak - the usual link between falling unemployment and rising wages seemed to have been broken. - bbc.in/1OEffcS
trickle-down  economics  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  self-employment  employment  working  poor  precarious  work  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  Niedriglohnsektor  George  Osborne  austerity  economic  history  recovery  budget  deficit  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  credit  bubble  mortgage  market  excess  reserves  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  academics  academia  IMF  Paul  Krugman  Gini  coefficient  inequality  underinvestment  Joseph  Stiglitz  private  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  credit  card  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  low  income  income  distribution  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  productivity  output  gap  Niall  Ferguson  secular  stagnation  underemployed  structural  unemployment  structural  imbalance  faultlines  Impediments  skills  gap 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
IMF warns of new financial crisis if interest rates rise | Business | The Guardian
Fund says governments in emerging markets should prepare now for a new credit crunch because of a 10-year corporate borrowing binge [...] “Shocks to the corporate sector could quickly spill over to the financial sector and generate a vicious cycle as banks curtail lending. Decreased loan supply would then lower aggregate demand and collateral values, further reducing access to finance and thereby economic activity, and in turn, increasing losses to the financial sector,” the IMF warns. [...] “Emerging markets must prepare for the adverse domestic stability implications of global financial tightening,” the IMF says.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Anatomy of Brazil's Financial Meltdown - Bloomberg View
Brazil desperately needs a circuit breaker to eliminate the mounting threat of cascading negative outcomes. The best way to achieve this would be a series of official decisions, designed by the government and passed by the legislature, that restore the country's growth dynamic, contain its fiscal deterioration and reverse mounting inflationary pressures.
BRIC  credit  bubble  commodity  prices  China  Russia  OPEC  Oil  price  2015  centralbanks  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  western  world  secular  stagnation  global  economy  global  trade  global  imbalances  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Fed chief Yellen says US rate rise still likely this year - BBC News
The US remains "on track" for an interest rate rise this year, Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen has said. The central bank head said as long as inflation was stable and the US economy was strong enough to boost jobs, the conditions would be right for a rise. Despite expectations of a rise this month, the Fed held rates, in part due to fears about global economic growth. Ms Yellen, speaking at the University of Massachusetts, said US economic prospects "generally appear solid". Speaking a week after the Fed delayed that long-anticipated hike, she said she and other policymakers did not expect recent global economic and financial market developments to significantly affect the central bank's policy. Much recent inflationary weakness is due to special and likely temporary factors, such as a strong dollar and low oil prices, she said. //&! http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-25/janet-yellen-s-flip-flop-confuses-markets
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: BIZ warnt vor Krediten in Schwellenländern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich sieht Alarmzeichen für Banken in vielen Schwellenländern. Die Kreditvergabe in China, Brasilien oder der Türkei habe ein bedrohliches Verhältnis angenommen, warnt die Notenbank. // &! Die Welt steuert auf den Bankrott zu (QE trap): Eine vorläufige Antwort: Das tieferliegende Problem besteht darin, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt auf den Bankrott zubewegt - und das wird umso schneller gehen, je höher die Zinsen sind und je niedriger die Preissteigerungsraten.
BIS  credit  bubble  2015  China  BRIC  NPL  shadow  banking  junk  bond  creditrating  banking  crisis  excess  reserves  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  centralbanks  economic  history  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  speculative  bubbles  FX  reserves  Turkey  Brazil  Developing  World  Fed  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Raghuram  Rajan  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  ECB  emerging  market  emerging  middle  class  AIIB  Asia  South  Africa  Latin  America  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  western  Niall  Ferguson  globalization  globalisation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  income  growth  income  mobility  income  gap  wage  growth  GFC  recovery  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Pact  European  Union  UK  USA  Richard  Koo  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  dogma  ideology  Fed  mandate  inflation  targeting  New  Normal  bond  bubble  QE  trap  liquidity  trap  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  property  bubble  capital  allocation  QT  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  digital  economy  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  World  Bank  IMF  savings  glut  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  Super  Cycle  debt  ser 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Is Global Economic Doubt Behind the Unchanged Rate? - YouTube
youtu.be/f5_AGIMe32k // much higher $ already put ~25bps on US domestic market. // Fed is a risk manager now // labour market got a check mark, but not inflation bc of tech, stronger$ (taper anticipation), commodities lower, further deflationary pressures (retail price fighting 4 increase like4like sales), globalisation (competition), secular stagnation (continued low growth in western world, lower aggregate demand overall, lower baseline), consumer unable 2pickup where it threw in hat (deleveraging, no savings, debt overhang household, consumer). A new normal of growth of ~3% (give/take) globally aggregate & western wrld (2-2.5%, EU aggregate even lower). In this world, THERE WILL BE NO INFLATION PRESSURE (2% or higher, &3bn ppl free labour wrldwide) IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS THE REAL ECONOMY 4 EVERY DAY FOLK DOESNT REFLECT REFLATED ASSET PRICES via QE, ZIRP, credit bubbles arnd world enabled by central banks. &! youtu.be/NVa5fkz8X0o &! youtu.be/Ny3bbonX3d0 &! 1.usa.gov/1JdKZxp
Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  2015  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Janet  Yellen  participation  rate  employment  underemployed  full  employment  unemployment  structural  unemployment  USA  China  BRIC  credit  bubble  complexity  global  economy  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  property  bubble  BIS  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  secular  stagnation  western  world  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Super  Rich  1%  faultlines  savings  glut  Impediments  structural  imbalance  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  disposable  income  income  inequality  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  UK  BOE  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  security  labour  market  recovery  policy  response  fiscal  policy  austerity  Schuldenbremse  Pact  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Brazil's downgrade | Authers' Note - YouTube
- 6 killer apps not yet properly installed. - // and still dependent on western world demand! aggregate demand via western consumer. // credit bubble and ZIRP/NIRP/QE has run its way largely // private sector could not pick up recovery. no appetite. same for SME SMB mittelstand. excess reserves not lend out because the horse has to drink by itself, can't make the drink. // especially when it has no means to served future credit interest payment coupons and principal repayment with no income growth! for decades. // inequality huts, middle class destoryed. - Career Politicans, Fear, polarisation, inequality, gini coefficient, zeit arbeit, leiharbeit, self-employment, working conditions, ...sozialer abstieg, squeezed middle class, ... insecurity, cloudy future, richard koo: austerity isn't helping!
Brazil  BRIC  Developing  World  China  credit  bubble  Latin  America  India  Russia  South  Africa  2015  Niall  Ferguson  NiallFerguson  recovery  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  emerging  middle  class  western  aggregate  demand  Supply  and  and  Supply  economic  history  Richard  Koo  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  globalization  globalisation  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  correction  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  PBOC  banking  crisis  bank  bailout  austerity  UK  USA  Europe  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  policy  consolidation  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  low  income  job  creation  labour  market  wage  growth  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  Super  Rich  1%  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  business  investment  business  confidence  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  underemployed  participation  rate  productivity  output  gap  macroeconomic  policy  policy  job  microeconomi 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
World Bank warns on US rate rise - BBC News
[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4
Taper  Fed  BOE  2015  BIS  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  World  Bank  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Brazil  India  South  Africa  Russia  Europe  UK  BOJ  Abenomics  liquidity  credit  squeeze  excess  reserves  PBOC  economic  history  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  ECB  commodity  prices  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  petrodollar  QT  FX  reserves  global  trade  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  western  deflationary  deflation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  refinancing  creditrating  creditrisk  deleveraging  private  debt  household  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  low  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  downward  mobility  working  poor  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Sozialer  Abstieg  j 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &! youtu.be/SZe3issLIb8
Raghuram  Rajan  BIS  centralbanks  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  excess  reserves  speculative  bubbles  reflate  reflation  economic  history  faultlines  credit  bubble  BRIC  2015  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  secular  stagnation  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  globalization  globalisation  financial  market  zombie  banks  savings  glut  business  confidence  business  investment  USA  UK  Europe  China  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  speculative  speculation  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  ECB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  deflationary  deflation  fiscal  policy  irrational  exuberance  panic  hubris  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Taper  book  structural  imbalance  Impediments  reserve  currency  fiat  currency  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  fiscal  deficit  fiscal  stimulus  Germany  austerity  dogma  ideology  credibility  Career  Politicians  Pact  Schuldenbremse  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  complexity  incomplete  information  shadow  banking  uncertainty  volatility  distortion  financial  repression  governance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why did Japan stop growing? Professor Takeo Hoshi at ANU - YouTube
Blyth argued its culture/society & structural. TPP trade deal might help productivity growth & opening Japan further 2 global trade. & encourage immigration reform. Regulatory reform; stop protection of zombies (gov guarantees, contracts, subsidies), corporate governance. Oversight. Transparency. Also Start-up rate (bottom-up disruption) needs reform (reduce red tape, create start-up/business hubs) // &! What is Abenomics? - youtu.be/_UafzhHzmwE //&! Noriko Hama & Yukio Noguchi "Abenomics and What comes After" - youtu.be/a29FTJXYev0 'unable to share affluence' - income redistribution << marginal propensity to consume, 16% left out of society (poverty), lack of empathy & compassion. BOJ is single lender 2 gov. Career Politicians! Companies have no need 2 borrow/cant force banks 2 lend. //&! min52 Problem of rising long-term interest rates solved w BOJ debt monetisation = inflation (probable near future scenario). &! youtu.be/ArnLHTE0e1g &! youtu.be/wYtJ7Fyn9NA &! youtu.be/AbKeTeb-I_M
Japan  economic  history  lost  decade  lost  generation  ageing  population  demographic  bubble  culture  society  fiscal  stimulus  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  banking  crisis  Exportweltmeister  Germany  subsidies  subsidizing  distortion  asset  bubble  Abenomics  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  fiscal  policy  white  elephants  Richard  Koo  productivity  corporate  culture  corporate  governance  deflationary  deflation  crowding  out  Debt  Super  Cycle  BOJ  Yen  public  investment  productive  investment  stagnation  secular  stagnation  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  disinflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Makers  Career  Politicians  savings  rate  savings  glut  policy  error  marginal  propensity  to  consume  poverty  trap  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  working  poor  precarious  work  inequality  Gini  coefficient  industrial  policy  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  disposable  income  income  distribution  low  income  neoliberalism  neoliberal  part-time  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  underemployed  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomic  policy  JGB  bond  bubble  monetisation  monetization  structural  imbalance  faultlines  Impediments  excess  reserves 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Group of 20 Financial Leaders Agree to Act to Bolster Growth - The New York Times
Ms. Lagarde was even more explicit, making it clear that governments had for too long relied on the supply of cheap cash from central banks that have been running ultra-loose monetary policy. “Monetary policy alone will not cut it,” she said. “It is necessary, it is recommended from our perspective, particularly in Europe and in Japan still, but it will not cut it on its own. “Clearly in the fiscal sphere as well as in the structural reforms sphere, more needs to be done, and it needs to accompany and eventually take the baton from the central bank governors.”
Europe  IMF  UK  USA  western  world  Richard  Koo  recovery  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  industrial  policy  STEM  R&D  austerity  George  Osborne  ChristineLagarde  OECD  GFC  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  liberal  economic  reform  Research  competitiveness  differentiate  differentiation  value  creation  added  value  Manufacturing  job  creation  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  Future  of  Work  Smart  Grid  renewable  energy  business  investment  consumer  debt  household  debt  debtoverhang  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Germany  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  inequality  Gini  coefficient  education  policy  David  Cameron  dogma  ideology  academia  academics  Mark  Blyth  Joseph  Stiglitz  Robert  Reich  Paul  Krugman  wage  growth  income  growth  G20  wage  stagnation  secular  stagnation  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  borderless  competitive  competition  currency  war  currency-war  currency  debasement  Exportweltmeister  BRIC  credit  bubble  global  economy  global  trade  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  American  Dream  economy  energy  energy  policy 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
China's impossible trinity - BBC News
At the heart of China's problem is the "impossible trinity" of international macroeconomics. The impossible trinity - or trilemma - is the idea that it is impossible for a country to have three things at the same time: a stable currency, the free movement of capital (i.e. the absence of capital controls) and independent monetary policy. A country can instead choose just two of the options from this policy suite. The UK, in common with most developed economies, has free capital movement and an independent monetary policy - but not a controlled exchange rate. The Bank of England sets interest rates at a level it thinks is right for the UK economy and - as capital can flow into and out of the UK at will - the exchange rate is determined by the market. [...] But the bigger criticism is usually over the nature of the post-2009 stimulus package [...] But, for all the criticism, the counterfactual is rarely stated. What would global growth have looked like without it? [//+ deflation factors]
China  liberal  economic  reform  2015  credit  bubble  devaluation  currency  debasement  Yuan  RMB  PBOC  IMF  SDR  macroeconomics  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  QE  recovery  GFC  economic  history  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  NPL  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  property  bubble  hot-money  BRIC  western  world  global  trade  global  economy  deflationary  deflation  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  currency  war  currency-war  aggregate  demand  short-fall  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  student  loan  debt  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  student  debt  public  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  globalisation  globalization  technological  progress  flat  world  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  secular  stagnation  borderless  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  savings  glut  Impediments  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  Europe  UK  OECD  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Sozialer  Abstieg  working  poor  precarious  work  income  growth  deregulation  self-regulation  Workers  Union  wage  pressure  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  redistribution  low  income  income  inequality  American  Dream  USA  Gini  Super  coe 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Alibaba Is the Canary in China's Coal Mine - Bloomberg View
It turns out investors were right about Alibaba: No company is more on the front lines of China's economic shifts than Jack Ma's juggernaut. And that's just where the problems begin. [...] After months of putting the entire weight of the government behind saving the market, Beijing appears to have given up. The fallout from that realization will have unpredictable effects on 1.3 billion people indoctrinated to believe Beijing can control any crisis or narrative. As markets swoon and gross domestic product slides, consumers are delaying nonessential purchases. [...] Mass austerity has only just begun. [...] it would be interesting to see how the government responds to "large and widespread investment losses that could lead to a notable negative wealth effect which could weaken consumption, as well as grievances against the authorities." [...] Macau's GDP -26.4% last quarter [...] Chinese gamblers stayed home. [...] Ma created a better quarterly GDP report than Beijing.
Alibaba  China  Jack  Ma  2015  credit  bubble  PBOC  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  hunt  for  yield  speculation  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  margin  trading  leverage  discretionary  spending  Call  Taper  Fed  BOE  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  market  intervention  bond  bubble  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  hubris  irrational  exuberance  western  world  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  savings  glut  correlation  excess  reserves  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  investment  banking  New  Normal  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  BIS  centralbanks  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  short-term  1%  Super  Rich  Privileged  Establishment  Toff  bank  bailout 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Maybe This Global Slowdown Is Different - Bloomberg View
[ warren buffet investing in america because he sees the long-term outcome of Globalisation (first was incredible pain and then a flat and then a normalisation). He is buying at the bottom of normalisation period. A truly flat, borderless world in next 20-30 years. Where USA is energy competitive with high skilled labour and top notch STEM, Research and R&D through its edu/colleges/university departments. Able to effectively compete. And also lobby for subsidies, gov contracts (ie defense, infrastructure! which will have to be replaced to the tune of trillions), effective tax avoidance & evasion. ] // Building global supply chains became so fashionable for Western manufacturers that they built them even when it made sense to keep production closer to customers; now they're retrenching and revising their approach.
warrenbuffet  USA  economic  history  globalisation  globalization  borderless  flat  world  competitive  competition  competitiveness  competitive  advantage  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  energy  price  renewable  energy  STEM  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  infrastructure  investment  western  world  Smart  Grid  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  R&D  Research  digital  economy  knowledge  economy  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Software  Is  Eating  The  3D  printing  Robotics  automation  GFC  recovery  long-term  view  long-term  added  value  value  creation  differentiate  differentiation  energy  efficiency  energy  policy 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History - YouTube
ideology/Career Politicians/Complacency/Cushy/non-ambitious/AIIB/comfortable //&! bit.ly/1cU2RVS March 2015, SELL & come back in 6 months - bloom.bg/1NTykGB //&! bit.ly/1NJvXai &! bit.ly/1VsYTEJ Outrageous predictions for 2015 were: China devalues yuan 20% [joining others in global struggle to import inflation] &! Corporate high yield market spreads double (higher refinancing cost, which zombie corporations do actually have no pants on as tide goes out) "High yield is a derivative of equity markets. If you believe equities are overvalued, so too is high yield," &! UK house prices crash (foreign hot money, speculative + shortage + Summer 2015 Crash + BOE Taper in 2015/16 = back to reality!) &! Russia defaults again // &! Fed Taper is a "margin call," [need 2 normalize despite its mandate/fundamentals not warranting a hike!] [...] a seven-year bull run 4 equities might be coming to an end [...] the rise (not value) of RMB/Yuan as it becomes free floating out of need] - cnb.cx/1MMyLSC
Abenomics  Yen  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  currency-war  fiat  currency  currency  debasement  currency  war  deflationary  deflation  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  credit  cycle  business  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  investment  public  investment  personal  investment  infrastructure  investment  rebalancing  structural  imbalance  Impediments  infrastructure  Career  Politicians  short-term  Fortune  500  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Wall  Street  ROI  STEM  Research  R&D  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  output  gap  productivity  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Robotics  3D  printing  Steen  Jakobsen  financial  incentive  secular  stagnation  Manufacturing  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  AIIB  Asia  European  Union  share  buyback  2015  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  developed  liquidity  trap  UK  USA  Europe  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  bank  bailout  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  ideology  dogma  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Dan Ariely: Why The Next Market Downturn May Quickly Become A Full-Blown Panic - YouTube
free self-regulated market where winner take all - creates adverse outcomes. //<< Book - The Darwin Economy: Liberty, Competition, and the Common Good by Robert H. Frank - Competition can be devastating if it is about winner take all !!! - youtu.be/hmbfK​DvDrJI - via Dan Ariely // // !!! QE - reflate - hope and pray confidence will come back and economy roars back to health. did not happen. // poverty trap // trend continues w inequality, // post-racial America // inability to get out of bad situation // under banked, payday loan // studies have shown, Americans imagine/think of their countries more equal and just than Sweden // (1) create new financial institution, retail banking serving people (not making 15% profit p/a to give it to share holders even demanding more) like Sparkassen // (2) reform education // (stop damaging) narrative of invisible hand - getting the best out of people // national identity // sense of agency !!!
inequality  QE  competitive  competition  winner  take  all  monopoly  monopsony  book  shared  economic  interest  common  good  Dan  Ariely  China  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  Super  Rich  1%  asset  bubble  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  child  poverty  poverty  USA  UK  Europe  austerity  recovery  2015  social  cohesion  social  tension  social  contract  welfare  state  social  safety  net  education  policy  skill-biased  technological  change  skills  gap  western  world  post-racial  America  Jim  Crow  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  Germany  food  poverty  budget2015  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Privileged  Toff  Establishment  Public  Services  Services  society  racial  segregation  gentrification  Gentrified  class  segregation  urbanisation  urban  planning  social  housing  affordable  housing  Lügenpresse  manufactured  consent  corporate  media  corporate  state  propaganda  populism  stigma  self-regulation  deregulation  Wall  Street  invisible  hand  crony  capitalism  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  bank  bailout  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  meritocra 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China: Is it in the Midst of a Hard Landing? - YouTube
Gordon Chang, author of "The Coming Collapse of China," discusses the outlook for China's economy with Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Alix Steel on "What'd You Miss?" // 1trn in reserves to support yuan, will need to liquidate its serserves - bond and fx // currently there is no backstop // mal-investment // time has run out since their Put post-2009 to retool economy and social safety net and health care // will be bad pull on western world, deflation, // "1930's style crash" // they have no tool left, no backstop. //
book  China  credit  bubble  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  PBOC  liquidity  trap  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  2015  capital-flight  Yuan  RMB  economic  growth  contagion  global  economy  bond  bubble  property  bubble  hubris  irrational  exuberance  panic  BRIC  Developing  World  western  deflationary  deflation  economic  history  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Easy Money Creates the Most Dangerous Bubbles - Bloomberg View
[Money has been slushing arnd in markets speculating, not investing in future & productive, added value goods. big companies are flush 2. easy credit is holding zombie corps of the last century over water. western world is persisting 2 put a banking bailout/crisis in the light of a sovereign debt crisis 2 push idealogical austerity. falling way being, never be able 2 catch up with productivity, output gap, STEM, research, future of work, smart grid & infrastructure, retooling their economy 21st century style.] // "speculation in property markets, amplified by mortgage financing, as a persistent central factor driving economic cycles." [...] the worst bubbles -- those that inflict the most economic pain -- tend to involve not just speculation, but a surge in easy lending and increasing leverage. [...] economic downturns following credit bubbles were generally worse and lasted longer. [...] danger of leverage cycle. // [ easy credit & debt fuelled recovery of assets, not fundamentals ]
book  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  economic  history  zombie  banks  Mark  Blyth  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  business  confidence  business  investment  economic  damage  2015  faultlines  structural  imbalance  structural  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  education  policy  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  recovery  western  world  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Smart  Grid  Software  Is  Eating  The  GFC  Career  Politicians  status  quo  social  contract  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  banking  crisis  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  financial  market  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Impediments  distortion  economic  model  economic  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  financial  incentive  financial  repression  financial  literacy  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Fed  monetary  stimulus  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  BIS  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  PBOC  China  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  academia  academics  economic-thought  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  hubris  panic  consumer  confidence  confidence  trust  banking  investment  banking  distr 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth: Austerity - The History of a Dangerous Idea - YouTube
53:00 - EU, UK, USA banking crisis not comparable with Japans eco history. He argues that Japans problems are deeply structural (demographic bubble, culture (savings glut, low propensity of consumption), the state). See book The Evolution of the Modern State & Koos book on Japan 'the holy grail of macroeconomics.' As he explains it, very different 2 EU, UK, USA transfer of banking losses (debt gone sour) onto public gov books via bailout&QE 2 save banking system & the top 30% of society which owns assets. BUT, there is one narrative string that haunts Japan & could haunt EU/UK/USA current living generation; 2 hold back discretionary spending & avoid putting themselves into a debt obligation! This could be underpinned by the Share Economy, econ of abundance, marginal cost & deflation. Minimalism. Anti-consumerism. Not buying a car. Generation Rent not buying a house of flat. Not buying every other year a new TV/Laptop/Phone (despite being commodityish). Who is taking this place?
Mark  Blyth  austerity  Richard  Koo  Japan  lost  generation  lost  decade  cost  of  ownership  savings  rate  debt  servitude  Angst  Millennials  generationy  babyboomers  economic  history  European  Union  UK  USA  recovery  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  Abenomics  structural  imbalance  Impediments  culture 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
(2012/13) After the Financial Crisis: How to Tell the Forest from the Trees - YouTube
"Profits are privatized while losses are socialized. How we got here, and how we can get out of this situation." // min20 - UK debt2GDP 2008, +100% Debt on Banks Balance Sheet, ~100% Household Debt, +100% Nonfinancial institutional/corporate Debt, <50% Gov Debt ( bit.ly/1u6QiLP ) risen to <80% Gov Debt2GDP bc of Bank Bailout. ( gross national debt has been rising, unable to pay down because of lack of growth, turning Japan - bit.ly/1f7UNyp ) // It is still a banking crisis. Especially in Europe. Not a sovereign debt crisis. Greece situation made much worse because of austerity. // min 32 - talks about China! China's Assets and Liabilities. 70% of global consumption is US/EU. [but shifting!] From CDO example, China correlates with US/EU vice versa! Chinese property bubble & equity bubble, came 2 an end this Summer 2015! The crisis began w banks & will end w banks! The crisis is still with us. The banks, stupid! // investment banking bust bc of low yields across all public asset classes
Mark  Blyth  austerity  GFC  recovery  2015  economic  history  bank  bailout  sovereign  debt  crisis  Greece  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  liquidity  trap  ECB  UK  BOE  Fed  USA  China  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  global  imbalances  savings  rate  savings  glut  shadow  banking  investment  banking  banking  crisis  European  Union  hunt  for  yield  reflate  reflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bond  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  toxicassets  badbank  policy  error  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  Richard  Koo  trust  distrust  trustagent  Insolvenzverschleppung  insolvency  insolvent  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  globalization  globalisation  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  business  investment  New  Normal  margin  trading  demographic  bubble  property  bubble  equity  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  emerging  middle  class  Frontier  Markets  Developing  BRIC  emerging  market  IMF  OECD  credit  bubble  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Thomas  Piketty  poverty  social  mobility 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea - YouTube
faith in capitalism can only be sustained, according to Adam Smith, if we can better ourself (vs winner takes all) & talent diversion into Finance, not Climate Change, STEM, education, sw, hw & rogoff/reinhart called 4 fiscal stimulus in 2014. &! its a banking problem, not overspend, its corporate state (Tories) PR and spin doctors, manufacturing consent, propaganda/populism! change conversation away from banks! // youtu.be/a-8ySh6nUsA // &! The Austerity Delusion - youtu.be/NQGCoiakycQ // &! Is Austerity a Dangerous Idea? - youtu.be/2v8m-J8sgik // &! youtu.be/JQuHSQXxsjM // &! Mackenzie Lecture 2015 - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs // &! After the Financial Crisis: How to Tell the Forest from the Trees - youtu.be/V3FPmu2_J_0 // &! Book Panel 2013 - youtu.be/Xz4FW8GDwG4 - "debt gets cured by growth." & austerity is ideological war on welfare state & class // &! youtu.be/iM2cnMhJZyg // &! youtu.be/in5M65566iw // &! What I Learned and (Un-Learned) at the Financial Crisis - youtu.be/lhldDOp77QA /
austerity  economic  history  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  downward  mobility  inequality  apathy  voter  turnout  crony  capitalism  ideology  dogma  GFC  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Angela  Merkel  Troika  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Conservative  Party  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  UK  Europe  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  lost  generation  lost  decade  Japan  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  unknown  unkown  Taper  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  Thomas  Piketty  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  sovereign  debt  crisis  deleveraging  Richard  Koo  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  industrial  policy  Revolution  2.0  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  globalisation  globalization  Eurogroup  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  reflate  recovery  reflation  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  BOE  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  short-term  Career  Politicians  political  theory  social  contract  Gesellschaft  No  Representation  Rechtsruck  stagnation  social 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Will the Next Recession Be Made in China? - Bloomberg Business
When China sneezes, the world just might catch a cold [...] The difference between now and then is that a lot of developing nations and global markets have braced themselves against the risks of a currency crisis, making a full-scale Asian Contagion unlikely. [...] “In a nutshell, no one can or should rule out a crisis, but we believe that the risk has fallen from a few years ago.” [...] Financial markets depend on good information. When it’s lacking, investors flail. They assume the best when they’re bullish and the worst when fear gets the best of them. That helps explain the eruption over China, a nation that remains opaque despite having the world’s second-biggest economy. Facts as basic as its GDP are hard to pin down: Officially it grew at 7 percent in the first and second quarters—suspiciously, precisely the rate Li predicted for 2015. Some outsiders put growth at closer to 5 percent based on data such as electricity consumption and rail cargo.
global  economy  China  global  trade  Europe  USA  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  contagion  economic  history  2015  recovery  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Impediments  PBOC  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  hunt  for  yield  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  Debt  Super  Cycle 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
On Second Thought, China Slowdown Will Hit Global-Growth Outlook - Bloomberg Business
Fitch Ratings said in a note Wednesday that while pessimism on China’s short-term outlook is “overdone,” there is still the potential for a “prolonged period of lower growth,” with expansion well below 7 percent. [...] Things are looking gloomier elsewhere. Brazil’s economy, Latin America’s largest, contracted 1.9 percent in the second quarter from the previous period, the government reported on Friday. That’s worse than the 1.7 percent median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. [...] “The basic assumptions about global growth are suffering, and the epicenter is China,” // lots of hot money on the hunt for yield found its way to emerging market and developing market! period, didn't stay in UK, US, Europe. Period. That is something policy makers accepted. financial market is global, not local. BOE ZIRP NIRP QE can not be contained within UK. Period. Same with Chinese newly minted property/paper millionaires put their money in London & else. LatAm into Miami and Co property.
global  economy  BRIC  global  trade  deflationary  deflation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  China  Russia  India  2015  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  reflate  reflation  emerging  middle  class  GFC  monetary  policy  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  unintended  consequences  complexity  globalization  global  imbalances  globalisation  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  secular  stagnation  economic  history  BOE  Fed  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  zombie  banks  monetary  theory  contagion  financial  repression  financial  market  bond  bubble  property  bubble  PBOC 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Jeremy Corbyn wins economists’ backing for anti-austerity policies | Politics | The Guardian
In the letter to which David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee is a signatory, the economists write: “The accusation is widely made that Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters have moved to the extreme left on economic policy. But this is not supported by the candidate’s statements or policies. His opposition to austerity is actually mainstream economics, even backed by the conservative IMF. He aims to boost growth and prosperity.” // UK can't compete with energy rich countries - ie through rebuilding (through subsidies) its industrial and manufacturing sector - it has to add value through expert services, knowledge, digital, research to existing products goods and services that then can be re-sold across the world - high energy cost, expensive transport through lack of infrastructure of the future, and lack of in-pipeline educated mobile youngster, is a structural deficit.
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
El-Erian: This Is Not 1998 or 2008 - YouTube
it is a repricing. a correction. prices got too far away (reflation of equity & co through ZIRP, NIRP, QE, speeches, plus hunt for yield & FOMO). It just happened to be China being the trigger, the wake-up call - very loud wake-up call - bc of its economic size and heft. (taper talks 2015 that made equity already nervous, and bond holders too, was too timid). Reality check. // Was it justified, yes. // In the long-run, we are all dead. And in the long-run things will, eventually, correct itself. // People may take now into account a new normal, lower interest rate environment, lower global growth, lower yields, lower inflationary pressures, lower dividend payments, more work that corporates (crony capitalism) need to do to squeeze out that earnings growth especially in the western world. inequality - low wage growth/stagnation - less discretionary spending on non-essential items (in the western world). & "realization that policy tools were less effective". &! bv.ms/1NFsFUn
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Crash bei Dax und Dow: Das war's mit Illusion Nummer drei - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Solange die Weltwirtschaft brummt, kann eine einzelne Volkswirtschaft ihre Währung so lange abwerten, bis sie wieder wettbewerbsfähig ist und der Aufschwung fast von alleine kommt. Globale Krisen funktionieren anders. Die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt kann nicht abwerten. Sie kann nur produktiver werden, aber nicht wettbewerbsfähiger. Da alle großen Wirtschaftsregionen der Welt - USA, Euroraum, Russland, China, Japan und Südostasien - ihre Mega-Krisen in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten hatten, gibt es auch keinen Unversehrten mehr, der die Rolle einer weltwirtschaftlichen Lokomotive übernehmen könnte. Das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft verlangsamt sich somit stetig. [...] Die fetten Jahre sind vorbei [...] [ Share buyback was hot in 2014/15 till now ] [...] Die Verschiebung der Macht von Arbeit zu Kapital schreitet nicht weiter fort. [ low interest rate environment bc low capital returns, new Millennials have to serve now this debt burden and can't hope to inflate it away. & stagnant wages! ]
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
US stocks nosedive in early trading amid collapse in global markets | Business | The Guardian
[ great reflation move since 09, finds another opportunity (this time because of China) to reflect. meaning to reassess reality. same with the collapse in emerging market, money going out of high yield & risk back to US/UK in hope of Taper and then came the hammer in form of China scare, people taking even more money out of emerging market/Chinas neighbours into the safe haven (perceived) that is the $/£/EUR market ] Dow dropped more than 1,000 points shortly after the markets opened, but it recovered slightly to be down 620 points, or 6%, shortly before 10am. Dow, which had suffered big falls last week, was trading below 16,000 at 10am – the first time it has been below that level since February 2014. The index is 14% below its record peak in May, putting the Dow firmly into “correction” territory – Wall Street jargon for a drop of 10% or more from a recent peak. &! bit.ly/1EQ31Fn &! bit.ly/1F1zPue - Summers argued for fiscal stimulus, debate about secular stagnation.
correction  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  emerging  market  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  2015  unknown  unkown  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  reflate  reflation  recovery  GFC  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  China  USA  western  world  secular  stagnation  Developing  developed  world  Europe  UK  Singapore  Asia  global  economy  global  trade  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  economic  history  Taper  Abenomics  Japan  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  Richard  Koo  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  deflationary  deflation  job  creation  job  market  participation  rate  industrial  policy  Makers  short-term  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  policy  folly  policy  error  PBOC  distortion  faultlines  Impediments  STEM  underinvestment  productive  investment  output  gap  productivity  Paul  Krugman  Larry  Summers  Ben  Bernanke  Janet  Yellen  Mark  Carney  MarioDraghi  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  austerity  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  fiscal  stimulus  George  Osborne  dogma  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  ideology 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Chinese economic winter 'cooling' world economy - BBC News
recession fear. weak countries tipped over into (back into) recession by China angst! And unresolved problems are highlighted again.
China  global  economy  2015  economic  slowdown  recession  Taper  economic  history  recovery  GFC  BIS  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  centralbanks  Developing  World  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sentiment  UK  USA  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Impediments 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan Exports Its Way to Irrelevance - Bloomberg View
[ Politicians as always will react with reactionary unimaginative policy, competing for the same pie. instead of enabling, supporting new pies to be created. ] But Abe needs to recognize, as China already has, that this is only the latest sign of a broader reality: Asia's old export model of economic growth no longer works. [...] All the stimulus BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda can muster won't change the worsening trajectory of the region's most-populous nation. That's why Abe needs to take a page from Beijing and focus more on creating new industries at home. [ the base of home grown new market/category/vertical also includes sound middle class to buy those products. demand at home. social safety net (security). and less inequality. progressive taxation. fight tax evasion/avoidance, monopoles, monopsonies, bribery, corruption. and politicians making policy for lobby. ]
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Europe's economic challenge not just about Greece - BBC News
IMF, Christine Lagarde, said: "I remain firmly of the view that Greece's debt has become unsustainable." [...] Greek debt will reach 201% of GDP some time next year. [...] It is unlikely a portion of the debt will be written off but there may well be an agreement to extend current loans and to lower the rates of interest. [...] [ the overall health of Europe as a whole and its individual parts in question] [...] the eurozone economy splutters. There is a recovery - the eurozone is growing at an annual rate of 1.3% - but it is patchy. In the [Q2'15] France and Italy, which account for 40% of the eurozone economy, flat-lined. Italy which had only recently emerged from recession fell back, managing growth of just 0.2%. [...] [ ECB: on balance, outlook remains on the downside ] The eurozone economy is still smaller than it was in 2008. [...] The fundamental challenges to the European economy remain - how to innovate [...] modernise [...] [ EU project living up to its potential ]
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan's economy shrinks by 0.4% in a blow for 'Abenomics' growth plan | World news | The Guardian
the country’s main Nikkei stock market index was up strongly by 0.6% as investors expected the government to unleash more monetary stimulus. “Should growth remain sluggish for another quarter and inflation expectations start to fall, the odds of additional monetary easing would increase substantially,” analysts at DBS said in a commentary. Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of Japan’s GDP, fell 0.8%, as exports dropped 4.4%. “The sharp plunge from the previous quarter’s surprise growth was partly due to disappointing demand for Japanese products in the US, Chinese and other resource-exporting markets,” SMBC Nikko Securities said in a commentary. “Sluggish wage growth and bad weather drove down consumption at home,” it added. // no demand led recovery. debt fuelled recovery! little is fixed thus nothing (kogs) fits and runs by itself as one would expect. // [...] convincing people to splash out on consumer goods has been a struggle
equity  bubble  BOJ  Abenomics  China  2015  western  world  developed  world  Taper  QE  NIRP  ZIRP  economic  history  global  economy  global  trade  Europe  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Yen  Richard  Koo  Oil  price  OPEC  energy  price  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  GFC  trickle-down  economics  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  capitalism  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  bank  bailout  bailout  microeconomic  policy  microeconomics  behavioral  finance  deleveraging  debt  servitude  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Psychology  sociology  savings  rate  uncertainty  insecurity 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Greenspan: Be Afraid of Pending Bubble in Bond Market - Bloomberg Business
what is the new normal interest rate? // 7min long bloom.bg/1gteMeO - UK and USA productivity (levels at rate of zero growth) and output gap, capital investment inadequate - into unproductive investment bc of hunt for yield, bc of outlook of secular stagnation for western world and structural impediments, imbalances, and faultlines, and also because of fiscal and political uncertainty, and demographic bubble and ageing population in western world. future customers/consumers are not in western world, they are to be found right now in the developing world and frontier markets. // we are currently in an environment where we don't know what the new normal interest rate is, because of distortions and incomplete information:
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Unseen Consequences of Zero-Interest-Rate Policy
distortion of asset allocation (mal-investment, investment in less productive areas for the economy) and risk appetite by pressure - hunt for yield. keeping zombie banks, consumers, and corporate alive by enabeling to rolling over their debt and even go further out on the time axis (long-term bonds/increase overall maturity of your debt - when it has to be repaid), incentive to buy on cheap credit, instead savings, delay of fiscal, economic, political reform by the given artificial time window (see lack of industrial, manufacturing, education, STEM policy/vision of UK) >> and false impression that austerity works great! // and as Richard Koo in one of his recent presentations (for his new book) said - Fed does not know how Taper will unfold, especially the problematic thing of long-dated bonds on their books and how to get them into the market.
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
STEPHANIE FLANDERS: It's borrowing and debt driving Britain's recovery | This is Money
New forecasts that went with his speech paint a different picture, of a recovery driven in large part by households borrowing more, and saving less. The level of household debt, relative to income, has been falling since the crisis, as families have cut back and worked to pay off debt. But the new Budget forecasts show it starting to rise again, from the final quarter of this year, moving from 142 per cent of income back up to 166 per cent by 2019. That’s more or less where household debt had got to in the lead up to the financial crisis, after all that irresponsible ‘debt fuelled growth’ under Gordon Brown. [...]And total level of investment is now more than 20 per cent below where it was at the start of 2008. // &! bit.ly/1IxXKax - low inflation, no inflation pressures expected till 2016 // &! bit.ly/1DepsJ2 - The UK has the most unbalanced economy of any OECD country.
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Yellen: There's Still Slack in Labor Markets - YouTube
>> signs that a debt fuelled recovery doesn't fix the long standing (since 90's 2000's post dot.com) underlying fundamentals of an economy. // low wage low productivity jobs especially part-time and minimum wage - doe not have an economic multiplier as a whole, they cost the economy or are at least net-net 0. // it is the same in UK. and signs show in Germany as well. // &! subprime was one of many predatory lending practices to financial illiterate ppl and exploitation of the underbanked/unbanked, and banks also choose to charge minorities higher interest rates - youtu.be/CbW9mH7p_8E + and add also practices of Payday Loans. Those things are a symptoms of the system at large. Resulting in the Poverty Trap.
USA  labour  economics  labour  market  participation  rate  skills  gap  underemployed  part-time  2015  education  policy  vocational  education  social  mobility  downward  mobility  self-employment  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  long-term  unemployment  unemployment  youth  unemployment  employabilitie  employability  structural  unemployment  structural  imbalance  Impediments  secular  stagnation  output  gap  productivity  recovery  GFC  competitiveness  competitive  globalisation  globalization  borderless  flat  world  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  history  infrastructure  investment  Makers  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Sozialer  Abstieg  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  economic  growth  trickle-down  economics  economic  damage  economic  model  shared  economic  interest  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Opportunism  opportunist  policy  folly  policy  error  microeconomic  policy  job  creation  job  market  job  security  Minijob  Aufstocker  minimum  wage  living  wage  disposable  income  savings  rate  discretionary  spending  well  being  dot.com  UK  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  mindestlohn  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  inequality  income  inequality  income  mobility  capi 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The Coming Crash & The Recession That Never Ended - Part 1 - YouTube
Part 2 youtu.be/SpJ4L2QGNI4 [ min 2:00 post WW2 german debt jubilee - American & Britain needed Germany as bulwark against USSR! thus Germany had leverage because it was systemic. Greece is not systemic, nor needed. Thus they openly talk, relaxed, abt Grexit. Grexit was systemic risk in the first ~3 years post GFC, because of underfunded German, Frensh and Belgian zombie banks. 6:00 PIGS generation will be disillusioned about claims of European Union unity! 7:30 austerity ] // &! Part 3 - youtu.be/FWulzJy2oXc Bernie Sanders on inequality &! social mobility, skills gap, ... make-up of USA economy is a impediment to future growth (output gap, no more 3% annually) & also part-cause of inequality ... &! Part 4 youtu.be/8wzDwU1pzpY - China may tumble bc they dont have the internal & global demand for the infrasturcture/economy they have build (debtoverhang, debt servitude) &or social uprising &! USA overreach // Forget QE, Wall Street’s new drug is the stock buyback - on.mktw.net/1HDtdUR
Richard  Wolff  Taper  equity  bubble  China  irrational  exuberance  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  stock  buyback  fundamentals  economic  growth  recovery  UK  USA  balance  sheet  recession  Europe  Richard  Koo  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  labour  market  participation  rate  underemployed  structural  unemployment  structural  imbalance  Impediments  unemployment  youth  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  Gini  coefficient  income  growth  disposable  income  low  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  employment  self-employment  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  working  poor  social  mobility  income  mobility  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  part-time  Contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  uncertainty  Niedriglohnsektor  minimum  wage  Niedriglohn  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  deleveraging  debtoverhang  savings  rate  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  skills  gap  education  policy  vocational  education  economic  history  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  discretionary  spending  dogma  ideology  austerity  neoliberal  neoliberalism  democracy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  debt  monetisation  debt  stagnation  inequality  history  debt  debt  debt  m 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The escape from the balance sheet recession and the QE trap: An interview with Richard Koo - YouTube
"deflationary" is a symptom of balance sheet recession, deleveraging, debtoverhang ... of the private sector, corporate sector (& public gov sector) (to repair balance sheet). inflation of price of goods 2 live is still existent. you cant eat laptops. inflation is still present. actions of private sector, corporate sector to repair balance sheet (and even public sector, all three together) is deflationary. // UK! interesting is that consumer still borrows ie via credit card and mortgages. // question is how long UK can run such a big current account deficit. somebody has to pay for it, if not the gov with debt, then it has to be the private sector. as long as it can serve debt payments, as long as it has wage growth (increase of productivity, closing of output gap). But job creation during recovery was mostly Service Sector Jobs & self-employment. Not added value STEM. // corporate sector will not, in the long-run, pay for current account deficit w debt. &! youtu.be/EhYvaMc3f44
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Greece debt crisis puts Germany's Merkel under pressure - BBC News
Of all of its creditors, Greece owes Germany the most - €68bn (£49bn; $75bn). // should compromise and change Germany internal debate whether we want to see 70% of our money or non at all in case of a Grexit in the next 5 years because Greece can no get back to economic growth and a real nationalistic and populistic elected gov that make Syriza look pale in comparison does elect to exit Euro voluntarily. Short sighted ideological national interest will bring worse than they can imagine - destroying the european dream and damaging europe as a whole as economy long-term (ie deflationary pressures ECB fights with more money, instead with political long-term resolution in the interest of THE EUROPEAN UNION, SOLIDARITY, they already did since GFC with their dither strategy, putting plasters on fault lines. Angela Merkel could have become the true Queen of Europe history would have remembered her. But she can only be national career politician & a lab worker (has science degree).
Career  Politicians  compromise  Grexit  bailout  debt  restructuring  haircut  EFSF  IMF  ECB  ESM  Greece  sustainable  sustainability  economic  history  austerity  national  interest  European  Union  policy  folly  policy  error  Angela  Merkel  Sigmar  Gabriel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Troika  ChristineLagarde  Eurogroup  MarioDraghi  common  sense  common  good  Great  Depression  lost  decade  lost  generation  zombie  banks  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  ideology  dogma  populism  propaganda  Nationalism  media  conglomerate  Lügenpresse  No  Representation  faultlines  structural  imbalance  GFC  recovery  solidarity  manufactured  consent  corporate  state  Gesellschaft  European  fiscal  transferunion  Eurobond  Leadership  vision 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Can we ever really expect to see the growth of the past again? - Telegraph
>> what kind of jobs have been created since 2009? no high productivity/output jobs with marginal costs for each additional unit produced. those just fill in some gap. but do not add to above par economic output (blue ocean) // dot.com recovery was debt fuelled. GFC recovery was debt fuelled. // monetary policy might have saved the world momentarily, but fiscal policy did not put logs and pillars under the world, their respective economies - being prudent - looking long-term raising competitiveness with skilled workforce. things are now as a whole, as wobbily as they were 2009/10. Period.
secular  stagnation  Taper  output  gap  productivity  western  world  UK  USA  deflationary  Europe  structural  imbalance  Impediments  underemployed  labour  market  labour  economics  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  job  market  economic  history  recovery  GFC  dot.com  policy  folly  policy  error  education  policy  vocational  education  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  competitiveness  competitive  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  borderless  economics  of  abundance  marginal  cost  economic  damage  microeconomic  policy  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  employability  structural  unemployment  asset  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  workforce  austerity  IMF  OECD  economic  growth  lost  decade  lost  generation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  Precariat  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Minijob  working  poor  Gini  coefficient  income  mobility  downward  mobility  social  mobility  Super  Rich  1%  Sozialer  Abstieg  Existenzangst  demographic  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  savings  glut  deleveraging  Career  Politicians 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
The world is defenceless against the next financial crisis, warns BIS - Telegraph
Monetary policymakers have run out of room to fight the next crisis with interest rates unable to go lower, the BIS warns. [...] These low interest rates have in turn fuelled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with even lower rates. [greenspan put][dot.com and GFC were in part fuelled by inadequate rate setting and oversight] [...] [BIS also rejecting the notion of secular stagnation]. // &! BIS 'low rates hold back global growth' - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/12ded5aa-1be6-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996 // &! Rising interest rates pose new risk for banks: BIS - reut.rs/1Jgyft9 [...] but a "normalization" of borrowing costs would reverse the debt-fueled inflation of asset prices and hit banks' own loss-absorbing equity capital, the BIS said. "Just as falling yields have supported asset valuation gains in recent years, an eventual normalization would generate losses ... Banks' equity capital would shrink."
BIS  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  Financial  Crisis  business  cycle  economic  cycle  economic  history  centralbanks  Fed  Taper  ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  BOE  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  zombie  banks  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  bailout  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  fractional  reserve  banking  dot.com  GFC  recovery  Greenspan-Put  alangreenspan  Great  Moderation  Ben  Bernanke  Fed  mandate  Bank  Oversight  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  zombie  consumer  structural  imbalance  Impediments  output  gap  productivity  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  secular  stagnation  asset  allocation  distortion  capital  allocation  asset  bubble  job  creation  labour  market  labour  economics  Niedriglohnsektor  Niedriglohn  Service  Sector  Jobs  lost  generation  lost  decade  policy  folly  policy  error  demographic  bubble  sovereign  debt  debt  bubble  consumer  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  growth  economic  damage  structural  unemployment  underemployed  supply  side  economics  microeconomic  policy  vocational  education  education  policy  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  Silicon  Valley  industrial  policy  ideology  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England says UK economy to grow by 2.5% in 2015 - BBC News
Mr Carney warned of "underlying weakness" as the Bank gave a gloomier picture for productivity growth. The Bank revised down its productivity forecast because it sees a disproportionate number of new jobs as low-skilled and low-output. Productivity growth is now expected to improve only modestly in the coming year before remaining below past average rates. 'Underinvestment' "Today's report should leave nobody in any doubt about the fundamental role of productivity growth in the UK economy's performance," said Aberdeen Asset Management chief economist Lucy O'Carroll. "The Bank of England has downgraded its growth outlook, and Mark Carney has put poor productivity right at the centre of the story. "He may have put part of the productivity disappointment of recent years down to a disproportionate pick-up in low-productivity jobs, but he has also admitted that underinvestment has played a role." [...] [+ EU&Global (China) headwinds] = in no rush to raise interest rates. &! bbc.in/1RIb9Ah
productivity  UK  job  creation  labour  market  labour  economics  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  Services  Industry  service  industrial  policy  structural  imbalance  Impediments  output  gap  recovery  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  USA  precarious  work  Precariat  self-employment  contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  outsourcing  borderless  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  competitiveness  competitive  competition  Manufacturing  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  economic  history  GFC  dot.com  productive  investment  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  ecosystem  education  policy  vocational  education  continual  education  underemployed  employability  long-term  unemployment  structural  unemployment  Revolution  2.0  entrepreneurial  entrepreneurship  Start-up  SME  SMB  Mittelstand  Software  Is  Eating  The  Share  Economy  service  Sector  Jobs  2015  sociology  trust  advice  psychology  anxiety  secular  stagnation  deflationary  digital  knowledge  sharing  shadow  1099  Economy  New  Economy  Venture  Capital  wantrepreneur  Year  of  Code  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  of  economics  of  apprenticesh 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Larry Summers: I'm Concerned U.S. Growth Won't Pick Up - YouTube
Not enough investment in productive entities that create living wage & middle class jobs. // credit induced growth & exhaustion of easy growth (China) // Debt Fueled Growth ends rarely gently. (GFC) // western world >> too little internal demand, its deflation and inflation
secular  stagnation  output  gap  productivity  Western  World  lost  decade  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Wall  Street  precarious  work  Precariat  USA  UK  Europe  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  ROI  hunt  for  yield  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  lost  generation  living  wage  structural  imbalance  Impediments  globalisation  globalization  borderless  competitiveness  competitive  competition  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  Service  Sector  Jobs  Niedriglohnsektor  Services  Industry  economy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  economic  history  Germany  middle  class  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Werkvertrag  exploitation  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  deflationary  productive  investment  Food  Stamps  Aufstocker  ALG2  hartz-iv  austerity  Larry  Summers 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
An election that really matters - BBC News
Naturally, wearing my economic editor's hat, I can be sad that there hasn't been more explicit debate on the wealth-creating imperatives of boosting lacklustre productivity, reducing record personal debts and re-engineering our corporate sector to cope with the Ubers and the indomitable new sharing economy. But the issues that are on the table are huge, arguably the most important of my political lifetime. The choice between whether to have a referendum on membership of the European Union (EU) - offered by Tories and UKIP, declined by Labour, LibDem and SNP - is massive. // &! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32605228 Conservatives and Labour are Crossdressing
general  election  2015  immigration  immigrants  UK  Career  Politicians  vocational  education  education  policy  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  secular  stagnation  productivity  output  gap  austerity  No  Representation  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  structural  imbalance  Impediments  structural  unemployment  youth  unemployment  lost  decade  lost  generation  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  self-employment  contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  precarious  Precariat  Toff  Establishment  Gini  coefficient  downward  mobility  social  mobility  income  mobility  Privileged  David  Cameron  Conservative  Party  Liberal  Democrats  globalisation  globalization  recovery  GFC  bailout  outsourcing 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
You Need To Be A Billion Just To Make A Million | TechCrunch
[ especially consumer apps being hit driven business, already, that can go out of fashion as quickly as they came, might be a flash in a pan like Secret & work only on the SV/SF ] Competition in the Valley has started reaching a new peak, with candidates demanding all kinds of accoutrements just to change jobs. But it’s not just recruiting that has become more challenging. Sales, marketing, public relations — essentially every task that a startup has to do is just more difficult today given this cutthroat environment. The only way to respond to the higher threshold has been to raise ever more capital, and earlier as well. We now have the rise of the “instant unicorn” that can raise hundreds of millions of capital in just the first months of a company’s existence. That means companies are already worth billions, before they may have made their first million dollars in revenue or gotten their first million users. That’s the new normal, and founders have to be ready to adapt.
Silicon  Valley  San  Francisco  barriers  to  entry  distortion  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  A  Round  Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  hunt  for  yield  Private  Market  competitive  advantage  ecosystem  burn  rate  runway  MVP  Product/Market  Fit  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  unintended  consequences  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Venture  Capital  Private  Equity  growth  growth  hacking  growth  hacker  structural  imbalance  Impediments  creative  destruction  Unicorn  competitiveness  competition  competitive  Signal  vs.  Noise  allocation  attention  span  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  Silicon  Alley  HR  human  resources 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Bayern: McKinsey sieht bis zu 40 Prozent der Jobs bedroht - SPIEGEL ONLINE
40 Prozent der Jobs im Freistaat befinden sich demnach in einer "Gefährdungszone". Der Grund: Sie seien von den Folgen der Digitalisierung und weiteren Strukturbrüchen betroffen. Eine der Kernthesen der Untersuchung lautet, dass die klassischen volkswirtschaftlichen Parameter, in denen Bayern gut abschneidet (etwa Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Produktivität, Arbeitslosenquote), nur bedingt als Zukunftsindikatoren geeignet seien. Sie würden "lediglich den Erfolg der Vergangenheit bewerten", so McKinsey. In dem Bericht werden deshalb andere Kennzahlen herangezogen: Stabilität (u.a. Einkommensverteilung), Innovation (u.a. Bildungsqualität und Start-up-Quote), Diversität (Integrationsindex, Bildungsmobiliät), Internetzugang, Nachhaltigkeit (Gesundheits- und Vorsorgequalität, Ressourcenproduktivität). // Economic Indicators are about the past! Period. Wall Street cottage industry of economic forecasters.
Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  Germany  SMB  industrial  policy  innovation  disrupting  markets  disruption  Exportweltmeister  China  BRIC  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Career  Politicians  Makers  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  policy  folly  policy  error  Manufacturing  3D  printing  algorithm  Robotics  automation  Share  Economy  Services  Industry  Niedriglohnsektor  service  service  flat  education  policy  social  mobility  income  mobility  diversity  immigration  demographic  bubble  ecological  disaster  environmental  disaster  productivity  efficiency  public  health  public  health  policy  chronic  diseases  sick  population  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  structural  unemployment  youth  unemployment  lost  decade  lost  generation  Fiscal  Pact  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  business  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  austerity  Schuldenbremse  Angela  Merkel  GroKo  Wolfgang  Schäuble  economic  history  Silicon  Valley  Year  of  Code  STEM  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Mittelstand  SME  borderless  competitive  competitiveness  competition  ecosystem  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  Future  of  Work 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Gillmor Gang: Money for Nothing - Gillmor Gang | TechCrunch TV
min 42 // A Round is now a "post-traction" investment aka proven product & business model. A Round is an investment to scale it up, put it up a bunch of gears. // Keith Teare from chat.center (tcrn.ch/1IWFQ1X) people now doing pre-seed, seed, seed prime & bridge funding via existing investors; figuring out Product/Market fit, traction, funnel, etc. Now more than ever a hits driven business. // see also tcrn.ch/1c54UpN // Complexity of phenomenon - symptoms, causes and tangents; biases, selection bias, pattern matching, bidding up hot deals in the private market where the highest bidder will get the deal - irrationality of accepting those valuations and the founders Unicorn-status need, hunt for yield, trendy - the future, when doing 'hard things' becomes fashionable (ie Reality TV, TV Series & a shallow Channel 4's How To Be A Young Billionaire) then beware, negative yields for secure investments (bonds and corp debt), perceived 'conservative' value vs private bid up bubble potential.
Seed  Round  A  Round  traction  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  Silicon  Valley  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  behavioral  finance  bond  bubble  bubbles  equity  bubble  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  complexity  growth  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  pattern  matching  selection  bias  confirmation  bias  bias  Unicorn  Wall  Street  Private  Mutual  Fund  Hedge  Fund  Venture  Capital  savings  glut  productive  investment  business  model  Snapchat  WhatsApp  Instagram  Slack  Uber  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Share  Economy  Services  Industry  Niedriglohnsektor  incomplete  information  economic  history  marginal  cost  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  faultlines  Product/Market  Fit  value  creation  1000  True  Fans  Core  Product  Proposition  differentiate  differentiation 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
The Potential Upside To A Technology Bubble | TechCrunch
just look at the graph, seed ang frowth round are impacted only. while a is still up a sizable 80% y/y. makes sense. // // From the article ""I am currently reading Antifragile. The premise of the book is looking at potential gains in times of disorder [R.I.P. Good Times Slide Show (2008) - http://tcrn.ch/ZBZw7u], and it’s a terrific read for those involved in startups and investing. Navigating fundamental shifts in technology and outer market forces are key characteristics of great founders. I look at the funding landscape and see a terrific environment for learning. Bubble or not there are certain things that remain true. Great founders create amazing companies and great founders will always find a way to succeed."" // 1bn valuation and the attribution of Unicorn and 'product CEO' for life of _your_ company, became a status symbol. // first lava stream of money bid-up asia and brick, now flown/flowing out and bidding up the Private Market where highest bidder wins.
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  growth  hunt  for  yield  A  Round  GFC  recession  Unicorn  symptom  burn  rate  superficial  status  anxiety  status  symbol  Private  Equity  bubble  bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  secular  stagnation  liquidity  trap  speculative  bubbles  Super  Rich  1%  asset  allocation  incomplete  information  complexity  herding  bubbles  demographic  bubble  asset  bubble  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Deutschlands Handelsbilanz: Die Probleme einer Exportnation - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In Deutschland wird zu wenig investiert, zugleich spielen wir bei den Exporten bald in unserer eigenen Liga. Die Unternehmenslobby fordert eine Senkung der Lohnkosten. Doch genau das Gegenteil wäre die richtige Lösung. // &! Müllers Memo: Der Kapitalismus funktioniert nicht mehr - Die Weltwirtschaft leidet immer noch stark unter den Folgen der Krise von 2008. Der Hauptgrund: Die Unternehmen investieren viel weniger als früher.
business  confidence  trustagent  trust  GFC  recovery  deleveraging  global  imbalances  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Europe  ECB  economic  history  IMF  austerity  OECD  business  investment  productive  investment  productivity  output  gap  UK  Wall  Street  Germany  France  infrastructure  investment  BRIC  Asia  Latin  America  borderless  globalisation  flat  world  globalization  savings  glut  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  unintended  consequences  Taper  USA  Fed  BOE  Abenomics  BOJ  lost  decade  lost  generation  youth  unemployment  precarious  work  Precariat  Service  Sector  Jobs  Share  Economy  Services  Industry  Industrial  Revolution  Future  of  Software  Is  Eating  The  automation  Robotics  AI  artificial  intelligence  augmented  intelligence  algorithm  Super  Rich  1%  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  living  wage  working  poor  Exportweltmeister  crony  capitalism  exploitation  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  consumer  confidence  demographic  bubble  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  secular  stagnation  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
If The UK Economy Is Doing So Well, Why Does It Feel So Bad? — Bull Market — Medium
( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32163541 ) Certainly in the case of the UK, productivity growth (the ultimate driver of higher living standards) has been exceptionally weak. And even if the UK is an exceptional case, productivity weakness has been widespread globally - as Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Martin Weale has recently argued. As Karl Whelan has argued, there are reasons to worry that this reflects a longer term trend rather than just a hang-over from the financial crisis. In other words, if we are trying to explain weak growth we may need to pay as much attention to the supply side of the economy as the demand side. [...] Professor Summers, his broader secular stagnation thesis does take into account supply side factors which have reduced the desired rate of investment. [...] the political debate on the economy suffers from an illusion of control. [ gov bonds are no uber productive investments ]
UK  recovery  output  gap  productivity  GFC  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  marketplace  efficiencies  Robotics  outsourcing  offshoring  contractor  borderless  globalisation  flat  deflationary  globalization  competitiveness  competition  competitive  STEM  education  policy  apprenticeships  Makers  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  austerity  social  mobility  income  mobility  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  savings  glut  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  bond  bubble  productive  investment  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Die Fakten über Griechenland - Undankbare Faulenzer? - Monitor 05.02.2015 - Bananenrepublik - YouTube
http://www.spiegel.de/kultur/gesellschaft/deutschland-in-der-eurokrise-ist-merkel-wie-bismarck-a-1016336.html - Deutsche Vorherrschaft in Europa: "Ein neuer Wirtschaftsnationalismus" Die "deutsche Frage" ist zurück: Der Wissenschaftler Hans Kundnani vergleicht Merkels Bundesrepublik mit dem Kaiserreich unter Bismarck. Hier erklärt er, wie er darauf kommt. [...] Herr Kundnani, Sie haben ein Buch über Deutschlands Rolle in der Eurokrise geschrieben, das im Jahr 1871 beginnt. Warum? [...] Publizisten wie George Soros und Martin Wolf schreiben sogar von einem neuen "German Empire". (( Hans Kundnani ist Research Director am European Council on Foreign Relations, wo er vor allem zu deutscher Außenpolitik forscht. )) &! http://www.spiegel.de/kultur/gesellschaft/otto-von-bismarck-bismarck-jahr-wegen-200-geburtstag-a-1011970.html - Bismarck-Jahr 2015: Der deutsche Traum als Schrecken Europas
Grexit  Greece  populism  Career  Politicians  Angela  Merkel  IMF  austerity  economic  history  Wolfgang  Schäuble  European  Union  Troika  Bailout  haircut  PIGS  Syriza  Podemos  Spain  humanitarian  crisis  human  tragedy  Politics  lost  generation  lost  decade  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  greatrecession  GFC  recovery  Germany  Eurokriese  book  Europe  European  Exportweltmeister  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  national  identity  identity  culture  Nationalismus  Nationalism  history  foreign  affairs  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance 
february 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB unveils massive QE boost for eurozone
The European Central Bank (ECB) says it will inject at least €1.1 trillion into the ailing eurozone economy. The ECB will buy bonds worth €60bn per month until the end of September 2016 and possibly longer, in what is known as quantitative easing (QE). The ECB has also said eurozone interest rates are being held at the record low of 0.05%, where they have been since September 2014. ECB president Mario Draghi said the programme would begin in March. The eurozone is flagging and the ECB is seeking ways to stimulate spending. Mr Draghi said the programme would be conducted "until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation", which the ECB has pledged to maintain at close to 2%. + bit.ly/1GCvd40 &! bit.ly/1Ci5DgR &! bit.ly/1unR0lf &! bit.ly/1JnpsDm
ECB  QE  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  deflation  deflationary  recovery  Europe  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  GFC  deleveraging  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  Grexit  consumer  debt  private  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  household  debt  debt  restructuring  haircut  public  debt  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  fiat  currency  fiat  money  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  Japan  economic  history  global  economy  2015  faultlines  PIGS  output  gap  productivity  Euro  currency  war  NIRP  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  exit  strategy  MarioDraghi  Wall  Street 
january 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Long, long slog to mend public finances
So the job of mending the public finances is a long way from over. The best performing, big developed economy in the world - that's us by the way, as assessed by speed of GDP growth - is generating far less tax than expected. So this year, the Office for Budget Responsibility expects the harvest for the Exchequer from taxation to be £7.8bn less than it predicted in March. And by 2017-18, it says the shortfall will be an eye-watering £21bn. & the biggest shortfall, roughly half of it, is in income tax, which reflects the creation of lots of new low wage jobs & the absence of meaningful pay rises for millions. [...] reflecting a change in the structure of the economy, rather than a passing phenomenon. [AUSTERITY] The OBR calculates that spending per head in real terms in 2019/20 on the public sector minus health and schools would be £1,290, or 57% less than in 2009/10. [... edu & industrial policy not straight ahead towards econ of the future ...] [in this together?] &! bbc.in/1tqUjGz
tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  Gerechtigkeit  fairness  crony  capitalism  Budget  UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  recovery  GFC  economic  history  Lohnzurückhaltung  working  poor  Services  Industry  service  economy  service  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  sticky  wages  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  minimum  wage  productivity  output  gap  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  Year  of  Code  industrial  policy  job  creation  disposable  income  Precariat  precarious  Zero  Hour  Contract  labour  economics  labour  market  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  competitiveness  competitive  competition  comparative  advantage  Silicon  Valley  BRIC  Frontier  Markets  Developing  free  trade  global  trade  trade  agreements  TTIP  austerity  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  infrastructure  investment  deficit  imbalance  apprenticeships  education  policy  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  stagnation  stagflation  deflationary 
december 2014 by asterisk2a
Warum wir weiter Bargeld brauchen - Münchau zu Rogoff-Vorstoß - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Ich glaube nicht, dass es möglich ist, die Inflationsziele nach Belieben hin- und herzuschieben. Wir sehen doch gerade die Schwierigkeiten, die die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) damit hat, ihr gegenwärtiges Inflationsziel von knapp zwei Prozent zu erreichen. Wenn man Inflationsziele beliebig verschiebt, verlieren sie schnell an Glaubwürdigkeit. Die Menschen würden zu Recht vermuten, dass man die Ziele bald wieder verändert, wenn es kommod ist. Anstatt zu versuchen, die Inflationsziele zu verändern oder das Bargeld abzuschaffen, sollten wir unsere existierenden Probleme ernster nehmen. Die EZB hätte viel früher und viel energischer mit der geldpolitischen Lockerung anfangen müssen. Heute stellt sich die vordringliche Frage, wie wir ein Abdriften in japanische Verhältnisse vermeiden. Wir sollten uns von diesen wichtigen Themen nicht durch störende Scheindebatten ablenken lassen. Die Abschaffung des Bargeldes wird unsere Probleme nicht lösen.
fiat  currency  inflation  targeting  deflation  deflationary  Europe  economic  history  ECB  MarioDraghi  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  zombie  banks  business  confidence  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  LTRO  TLTRO  Structural  Impediments  PIGS  Angela  Merkel  Pact  Schuldenbremse  France  Sick  man  of  Europe  imbalance  faultlines  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  Demand  and  Supply  China  Russia  BRIC  Frontier  Markets  Exportweltmeister  GFC  recovery  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  KennethRogoff  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  Wall  Street  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  crony  capitalism  Lohnzurückhaltung  consumer  confidence  profit  maximisation  Future  of  Work  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  culture  society  business  Politics  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  compromise  Career  Politicians  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  flat  globalisation  globalization 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
Anleihekäufe führen nicht zu Inflation: Kolumne von Wolfgang Münchau - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Wenn Sie sich jetzt die Anleihenkäufe der englischen oder der japanischen Zentralbank anschauen, dann ist genau das passiert, was ich gerade beschrieben habe. In beiden Fällen wurde die Geldbasis massiv erhöht. Die Geldmenge bewegte sich nicht. Warum kaufen Zentralbanken die Wertpapiere dann überhaupt? Sie hoffen auf indirekte Effekte, die am Ende einer langen Kette vielleicht doch auf die Geldmenge wirken. [...] Nur leider hat das in Japan zwei Jahrzehnte lang nicht funktioniert. Und bei uns bislang auch nicht. Dafür gibt es verschiedene Gründe: [...] [... overarching trend; a flattening of the curves (of disparity) across the world concerning economic ?pillars?: work type (more advanced work in the supplychain in china & not just labour intensive stuff only. more & more added value done in BRIC, East Europe, ...) #labourmarket, #consumption, #demographics, #edu, savings, social safety net, western style democracy et al) ... fall of Iron Curtain was beginning of process Angleichung]
liquidity  trap  Japan  BOJ  Fed  BOE  ECB  quantitative-easing  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  TARP  POMO  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  sovereign  debt  crisis  Richard  Koo  lost  decade  economic  history  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  business  investment  trust  trustagent  fiscal  policy  austerity  IMF  BIS  centralbanks  confidence  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  haircut  monetary  policy  monetary  system  fiat  currency  deflation  deflationary  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  faultlines  infrastructure  investment  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  competitive  competitiveness  China  BRIC  Frontier  Markets  Developing  global  trade  macroeconomics  microeconomics  labour  market  labour  economics  21stcentury  Software  Is  Eating  The  algorithm  Robotics  automation  Niedriglohnsektor  lohndumping  Lohnzurückhaltung  disposable  income  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Bank of England warns inflation could drop below 1%
The Bank of England has warned that inflation could fall below 1% in the next six months, owing to lower food, energy and import prices, as well as feeble growth in Europe and elsewhere. [...] Earlier, official figures showed average wages excluding bonuses grew by 1.3%, which was just above the latest rate of Consumer Prices Index inflation and the first time it has risen above that measure in five years. // insight? job creation mostly in services industry. low qualification. plenty of applicants. thus low level drivers of pay increase. services industry = Niedriglohnsektor. If it were the other way around - job creation mostly in industry, manufacturing, knowledge work, white & blue collar work ... employees would have better chances to ask/demand for pay rise - because of no abundance of applicants with proper qualifications. But Britain lost its industrial base long-ago. UK and USA GDP consists of +60% of service economy/industry.
UK  secular  stagnation  Europe  recovery  GFC  deflation  deflationary  economic  history  Structural  Impediments  faultlines  imbalance  inflation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  BOE  inflation  expectation  Niedriglohnsektor  USA  Services  Industry  service  economy  service 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
Capitalism in Crisis Amid Slow Growth and Growing Inequality - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Six years after the Lehman disaster, the industrialized world is suffering from Japan Syndrome. Growth is minimal, another crash may be brewing and the gulf between rich and poor continues to widen. Can the global economy reinvent itself? [...] The buzzword is "inclusion" and it refers to a trait that Western industrialized nations seem to be on the verge of losing: the ability to allow as many layers of society as possible to benefit from economic advancement and participate in political life. & http://youtu.be/hPPBYNKmuWc?t=3m52s IMF talking about over 70% of EU banks are Zombie Banks.
Japan  economic  history  GFC  recovery  greatrecession  2014  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Abenomics  Richard  Koo  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Impediments  structural  deficit  liquidity  trap  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  Gini  coefficient  social  cohesion  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  downward  mobility  disposable  income  academia  academics  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  deleveraging  NPL  zombie  banks  business  investment  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  balance  sheet  recession  creditcrunch  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  excess  Bailout  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  unintended  consequences  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TARP  LTRO  TLTRO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  IMF  BIS  Europe  UK  USA 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Share prices across Europe continue to slide
'Monetary morphine' [...] one of the big concerns among investors was the ending of the Fed's monetary stimulus in the US. "As the monetary morphine has started to wear off the patient has come to realise that a lot of the old problems still remain, and yesterday's poor US data helped trigger a rather extreme reaction in not only the stock markets but bond markets too, as complacent investors rushed to hedge themselves. "In essence, investors are asking the question with respect to the recent recovery about whether this is as good as it gets, which rather explains the slump in the oil price, bond yields and stock markets,"
Taper  recovery  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  distortion  economic  history  liquidity  trap  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  PIGS  Europe  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  Pact  monetary  policy  productivity  output  gap  policy  folly  policy  error  uncertainty  business  confidence  business  investment  ZIRP  NIRP  deflation  deflationary  secular  stagnation  stagnation  stagflation  consumer  confidence  trust  trustagent  confidence  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed  Abenomics  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  unknown  unkown  hunt  for  yield 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
IWF-Treffen in Washington: Kritik an Geldpolitik von Draghi - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In der Tat sind es nicht mehr die Deutschen allein, die auf die Gefahren der dauerhaft niedrigen Zinsen hinweisen. Auch anderswo bekommt man ob der Billiggeldschwemme ein mulmiges Gefühl. Auf den Finanzmärkten würden die Investoren teilweise sehr hohe Risiken eingehen, warnt etwa Claudio Borio, Chefökonom der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsgleich in Basel. In der Realwirtschaft, wo eigentlich investiert werden soll, seien die Unternehmen dagegen eher risikoscheu. Borio nennt das eine Störung im System. & bit.ly/1CdseYt
IMF  BIS  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  transmission  mechanism  distortion  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  trust  trustagent  business  confidence  confidence  consumer  confidence  liquidity  trap  ECB  BOE  Fed  MarioDraghi  Germany  PIGS  faultlines  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Impediments  working  poor  underemployed  squeezed  middle  class  Demand  and  Supply  Lohnzurückhaltung  deflation  deflationary  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Europe  France  Sick  man  of  Europe  infrastructure  investment  BRIC  MINT  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  Exportweltmeister  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  economic  history  globalization  globalisation  disposable  income  flat  ABS  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  UK  USA  lost  decade  lost  generation  Policy  Makers  education  fiscal  monetary  folly  error  complexity  unintended  consequences  academia  Taper  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  income  mobility  downward  mobility  social  mobility  inequality  Super  Rich  1%  Bailout  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  banking 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - More student loans won't be repaid, government believes
Ministers estimated that 28% of loans would never be paid back in full when factoring their calculations. But now repayment levels are projected to drop so low that the government is close to getting back less money than it would have by keeping the old system. Responding to a parliamentary question, universities minister David Willetts said the government had been reviewing its modelling on student loans and now estimated that about 45% would be written off - an increase from 40% six months ago. Economics consultancy London Economics said the "tipping point" at which the costs of the new system will exceed those of the old one would be reached if 48.6% of all student loans were not repaid.
StudentLoans  Student  Loan  Bubble  debt  income  mobility  social  mobility  Super  Cycle  debt  education  policy  Public  babyboomers  Future  of  Work  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  Liberal  Arts  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  apprenticeships  Trainee  Year  of  Code  Elite  Privileged  1%  meritocratic  meritocracy  Toff  UK  industrial  policy  manufacturing  destruction  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  flat  world  service  economy  globalisation  globalization  David  Cameron  GFC  austerity  George  Osborne  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Vision  Leadership 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Alan Greenspan on what's wrong with the world economy - Newsnight - YouTube
secular  stagnation  alangreenspan  Alan  Greenspan  recovery  GFC  2014  ZIRP  liquidity  trap  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  austerity  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  Europe  PIGS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  Germany  policy  folly  policy  error  IMF  Makers  Pact  fiscal  stimulus  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  equity  bubble  Thomas  Piketty  book  Jens  Weidmann 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Germany recession fears - YouTube
Schwaches Wachstum: IWF warnt vor neuer Weltwirtschaftskrise. Der Internationale Währungsfonds hat seine Prognose für das weltweite Wirtschaftswachstum gekappt - und warnt vor einer neuen globalen Krise. Auch für Deutschland sieht der Fonds die Zukunft trüber und rät zum Geldausgeben. - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/iwf-warnt-vor-weltwirtschaftskrise-a-995868.html +!+!+!+ Staatsschulden: Streicht den Fiskalpakt - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/staatsschulden-warum-der-fiskalpakt-nicht-funktioniert-a-995597.html
IMF  Germany  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  China  BRIC  MINT  USA  UK  Europe  PIGS  IMG  austerity  recovery  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  Super  Cycle  Fiscal  Pact  Exportweltmeister  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  business  business  confidence  trust  trustagent  Policy  Makers  error  folly  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  ECB  ZIRP  liquidity  trap  NIRP  stagflation  secular  stagnation  stagnation  lost  decade  lost  generation  economic  history  Structural  Impediments  faultlines  France  deficit  imbalance  Ukrain  Ukraine  Russia  foreign  diplomacy  East  Europe  geopolitics  G  Zero  IBS  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  unintended  consequences  hunt  for  yield  Politics 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB: Draghi kündigt Aufkaufprogramm für Kredite an - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Mit dem Plan reagiert Draghi auf die schwache Wirtschaftslage in der Eurozone. Länder wie Italien, Spanien oder Griechenland kommen - wenn überhaupt - nur sehr langsam aus der Krise. Die dortigen Banken vergeben seit Jahren immer weniger Kredite. Und selbst in großen Ländern wie Frankreich und Deutschland stagnierte die Wirtschaftsleistung zuletzt. Ausdruck findet das auch in der Inflationsstatistik: Die Verbraucherpreise in der Eurozone steigen kaum noch - im September lag die jährliche Teuerungsrate gerade mal noch bei 0,3 Prozent. Um die Wirtschaft in Schwung zu halten, sollen die Preise nach Vorstellungen der EZB aber eher um knapp zwei Prozent pro Jahr steigen. Deshalb versuchen Draghi und seine Kollegen seit Monaten, die Kreditvergabe der Banken zu steigern, um so Wirtschaftswachstum und Preisentwicklung anzutreiben.
ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ABS  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  business  investment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  inflation  expectation  Europe  PIGS  NPL  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  IMF  France  Germany  trade  balance  2014  recovery  GFC  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  stagnation  Structural  Impediments  infrastructure  investment  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  inflation  fiscal  policy  Pact  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  distortion  unintended  consequences  complexity  asset  bubble 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Not that negative after all - YouTube
- nbdy is taking up the money to invest in his business (increase capacity, R&D, etc etc), becs there is no demand ... what is holding up the western world is the service economy - especially in UK and USA! - and then there is one particular structural impediment in Germany et al, demographic bubble.
monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  TLTRO  OMT  ABS  LTRO  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  trust  trustagent  confidence  creditcrunch  economic  history  Europe  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  deficit  imbalance  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  PIGS  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  Exportweltmeister  Germany  BuBa  austerity  IMF  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  zombie  banks  distortion  business  business  confidence  BRIC  MINT  USA  UK  MarioDraghi  Demand  Shock  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  industrial  policy  manufacturing  Services  Industry  service  economy  service  recovery  GFC  2014  consumer  confidence  output  gap  productivity 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - American Dream breeds shame and blame for job seekers
"Unemployed auto workers, factory workers, they have a lot of regrets about the past," he said. "A lot of workers are internalising, 'You succeed on your own merits and your own abilities, and if you fail, you're to blame'," Chen says. He isn't alone in seeing this pattern. Experts tell the BBC that job seekers in the US are now, more than ever, blaming themselves for being out of work, due in part to misconceptions about what it takes to succeed in America. [...] Meritocracy became the prevailing ideology, encouraging workers to aim high and reap the resultant rewards. Anyone could achieve greatness. Paupers could become princes. The more people made, the more likely they were to believe they were worthy of it. A study published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology last year found that the higher people perceived their social class to be, the more likely they were to believe that success comes to those who most deserve it. [class warfare, meritocracy is ideology]
structural  unemployment  Year  of  Code  structural  imbalance  Impediments  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  Future  of  Work  manufacturing  industrial  policy  Services  Industry  service  economy  service  Share  labour  market  labour  economics  labour  force  UK  USA  Europe  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  added  value  competitive  advantage  competitive  competitiveness  Competition  comparative  advantage  self-employment  Higher  Education  policy  continual  Public  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  protectionism  subsidies  subsidizing  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  long-term  thinking  long-term  unemployment  long-term  view  underemployed  workless  working  poor  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  mindestlohn  minimum  wage  social  mobility  income  mobility  economic  history  neoliberal  neoliberalism  deregulation  social  status  status  symbol  socioeconomic  status  status  anxiety  meritocratic  meritocracy  ideology  class  warfare  society  culture  populism  demagogy  demagogue  unemployment  stigma  stereotype  bias  prejudice  social  divide  child  poverty  poverty  poverty  in  old  age  social  science  social  cohesion  social  safety  net  social  study 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
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