asterisk2a + greatdepression + recession   56

BBC News - Farewell to the mother of all depressions
[ THE RECOVERY, THE GLASS IS HALF FULL. PERIOD. ]But nonetheless many will be slightly depressed that although the service economy is now just under 3% bigger than it was at the peak, manufacturing is still more than 7% smaller, and the production industries as a whole have been diminished by 11%. As I have bored on about for a while, although it is heart-warming to see UK manufacturing growing right now, there has been no rebalancing of the economy back towards the makers. Also, within services, the contribution of shoppers to the recovery remains immense - and the retail trade made the biggest contribution to the latest quarter's services surge. That suggests we may be at a premature end to households' attempts to strengthen their finances and pay down debts - and shows that growth in the economy remains perilously sensitive to the cost of money.
UK  recovery  greatrecession  2014  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  zombie  consumer  debtoverhang  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  BOE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  greatdepression  lost  decade  lost  generation  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  underemployed  IMF  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  London  economies  of  agglomeration  Aberdeen  industrial  policy  comparative  advantage  competitiveness  competitive  advantage  tax  code  taxation  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  tax  credit  tax  free  income  GFC  creditcrisis  creditcrunsh  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  manufacturing  Consumerism  consumerist  consumer  debt  reflation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  household  debt  economic  history 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Eurokrise: Angela Merkel betreibt riskante Rettung - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Es sind die inneren Widersprüche einer Währungsunion, die nur das sein will, aber nicht mehr, die uns jetzt einholen. Anstatt die Schuldenkrise durch eine Schuldenkonferenz zu lösen, verlagern wir das Problem, indem wir komplizierte Auffangschirme schaffen, die die Schulden lediglich von einer Ecke des Systems in die andere hinüberschieben. Das sieht gut aus, ändert aber an der Überschuldung von Griechenland und Portugal nicht einen Deut.
debt  jubilee  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  haircut  PIGS  Europe  Politics  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  lost  generation  lost  decade  secular  stagnation  debtoverhang  deleveraging  NPL  balance  sheet  recession  greatrecession  greatdepression  2014  Germany  divergence  faultlines  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Impediments  structural  deficit  debt  restructuring  restructuring  infrastructure  investment  Leadership 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
DIW-Chef Fratzscher zu Banken-Stresstest, Lohnerhöhung - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Abhängigkeit zwischen Banken und Staaten hat in den letzten Jahren besorgniserregend zugenommen. Die berechtigte Sorge ist daher, dass Bankenrettungen die Staatshaushalte der hochverschuldeten Eurostaaten überfordert. Dann könnten wir leicht wieder in eine Krisensituation wie im Sommer 2012 geraten, als die Anleihezinsen für viele Eurostaaten drastisch nach oben geschossen sind. [...] Die größte Herausforderung für Europa ist, Wachstum zu schaffen. Nur durch ein deutlich stärkeres Wachstum kann es gelingen, dass die Unternehmen Beschäftigte einstellen, die Banken faule Kredite abbauen und die Staaten ihre Finanzen in Ordnung bringen. [...] [ +see end - Income Growth across the board in Germany Needed. Recent 2017 wage floor/minimum wage was overdue. Overdue. ]
GDP  Europe  zombie  banks  PIGS  NPL  non-performing  loan  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  Japan  economic  history  debt  jubilee  lost  decade  lost  generation  Super  Cycle  ECB  liquidity  trap  history  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  2014  infrastructure  investment  underemployed  structural  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  unemployment  Germany  France  faultlines  Impediments  structural  imbalance  structural  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  tradedeficit  trade  deficit  academia  academics  policy  error  policy  folly  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  QE  monetary  transmission  mechanism  deleveraging  Politics  Career  Politicians  ownership  accountability  transparency  Bundesbank  BuBa  income  growth  minimum  wage  wage  floor  coldprogression  kalte  Progression 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Henrik Müller über Wirtschaftswachstum 2014: Die Pessimisten sind los - SPIEGEL ONLINE
GDP  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  2014  economic  history  digital  economy  happiness  index  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  knowledge  worker  knowledge  economy  Age  digital  artist  digital  content  content  creator  New  academia  academics  Wikipedia  freemium  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  deflation  deflationary  lost  generation  lost  decade  Year  of  Code  White-collar  Blue-collar  hybrid  work  workless  6-hour  work  day  workforce  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  productivity  output  gap  Silicon  Valley  education  policy  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  disposable  income  leisure  time  Robert  Skidelsky  volunteering  volunteer  maximisation  of  happiness  Jack  of  All  Trades  Future  Future  of  book  Tim  Ferriss  work  life  balance  worklife  underemployed  self-employment  freelance  freelancing  complexity  unknown  unknowns  GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  Europe  UK  USA  PIGS  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Richard  Koo  Super  Cycle  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  debt  jubilee  Japan  BOE  Fed  ECB  Open  Source  Linux  GitHub  BOJ  sharing  economy  less  more  zeitgeist  generational  change  Millennials  generationy  Consumerism  digital  digital  consume 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Live chart: The low countries - YouTube
Timothy Geithner says no risk of U.S. losing it's AAA credit rating - http://youtu.be/0HDCvqgxrrE || Geithner: Japan's 'Lost Decade' Not America's Fate - http://youtu.be/fax8BIPKcP8 "the hope it's gonna heal itself, to hope you can grow yourself out of it" growing your way out of it" || +!!! Timothy Geithner Fired Robert Shiller? http://youtu.be/bIwBEYoSqKY >> economics has no humans in it !!! no real world example. Conventional wisdom so strong. "We've got too scientific." And anybody who is 'flaky' gets pushed out [Robert Schiller]. >>Wenn du dich auf andere verlaesst, bist du verlassen.<< || Robert Shiller: Speculative Asset Prices - http://youtu.be/oBXPOWytDMs "present value". google.co.uk/search?q=present+value+Robert+Schiller || + Robert Shiller: Nobel Prize Winning Economist - http://youtu.be/ABvtKGrIDUs "it can't be an exact science (forecasting) because of the complexity, mass data; uncertain, certain, and data that can't be put in numbers, storystelling -> feedback loops ...
bond  bubble  Japan  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  hunt  for  yield  lost  decade  lost  generation  deflation  deflationary  liquidity  trap  financial  repression  economic  history  Tim  Geithner  Timothy  Geithner  austerity  balance  sheet  recession  Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  creditrating  creditrisk  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  Super  Cycle  debt  jubilee  GFC  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  toobigtofail  TBTF  systemrelevanz  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  sovereignty  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  Thomas  Piketty  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  savings  glut  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  GDP  economic  model  Robert  Skidelsky  Robert  Reich  Paul  Krugman  consumer  debt  public  debt  debt  restructuring  household  debt  zombie  banks  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  BuBa  leadership  Democratic  Process  democracy  trust  trustagent  confidence  greatrecession  greatdepression  history  evolution  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  Software  Is  Eating  skill-biased  techn 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Der Crash ist die Lösung | SWR1 Leute - YouTube
banks still TBTF, Systemrelevant. << enabled by Own Lobby influencing Career Politicians. haftungsgarantien von ECB are no more capitalism. +++ &&& +++ If even Germany - Wirtchaftslokomotive - export meister - does still have a budget deficit, while being that country that produces more than it consumes, who else if not Germany? But still doesn't. +++ "Die Zeit der Rendite ist vorbei." +++ Schulden zu haben, man ist nicht frei. Frueher hat man das sich gekauft was man sich leisten konnte, ohne kreditkarte, ohne dispo, ohne bankkredit. +++ NEW crash will come of even bigger proportion and even more rubble to clear up afterwards than 2008/9 - GFC. +++ Always buy in tranches, dispersed over time. +++ fractional reserve banking leads to this UBER crash as we live on a planet with finite resources. Current GDP fetish needs to stop. Change of mind, thinking, course. << this is the same with Mobile Creative, future workforce, Software eats the world, UK's productivity gap.
book  GFC  Debt  Super  Cycle  jubilee  sovereign  crisis  liquidity  trap  investigative  journalism  journalismus  monetization  private  consumer  bubble  monetisation  public  household  balance  sheet  recession  PIGS  Europe  lostdecade  lost  decade  lost  generation  greatrecession  greatdepression  toobigtofail  TBTF  OTC  derivatives  systemrelevant  Systemrelevanz  toobigtojail  Career  Politicians  accountability  transparency  Politics  Democratic  Process  democracy  short-term  thinking  long-term  thinking  financial  industry  LIBOR  rigging  scandal  trust  trustagent  confidence  corporatism  crony  capitalism  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  revolving  door  IMF  IWF  centralbanks  economic  history  capitalism  Thomas  Piketty  ECB  EZB  OMT  faultlines  budget  deficit  structural  deficit  Impediments  structural  imbalance  history  financial  repression  New  Normal  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Beton  Gold  property  bubble  fragile  world  fagile  financial  system  external  shock  balckswan  monetary  stimulus  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  growth  round  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  Island  Agentina  Japan  UK  fractional  reserve  banking  GDP  economic  model  fiat  currency  fiat  money  USA  academia  acade 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Kreditklemme trotz EZB-Programmen: Die Banken sind unschuldig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Milan und Sufi sind nicht die ersten, die auf diese Idee kamen. Richard Koo aus Japan entwickelte schon in den neunziger Jahre die These von einer Bilanz-Rezession. Wenn Länder, Firmen und Haushalte überschuldet sind, dann wollen sie sich einfach nur noch entschulden, egal wie günstig die Kredite sind. Koo warnte davor, dass alle gleichzeitig die Schulden abbauen. In Japan hörte man auf ihn. Dort entschuldeten sich die Firmen und die Haushalte, und es verschuldete sich der Staat. In Europa bauen alle ihre Schulden gleichzeitig ab: Staat, Unternehmen, Haushalte. Koo glaubt daher auch, dass wir in eine weit schlimmere Lage geraten werden als Japan. Wir sind auf Deflation programmiert. Koos Thesen sind plausibel. Sie sind aber keine fundierte ökonomische Analyse. Genau das haben jetzt Milan und Sufi geliefert - zumindest für die USA. Wenn sich diese Ergebnisse auch bei uns bestätigen sollten, dann hieße das: Wir machen in Europa so ziemlich alles falsch.
Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  Japan  deflation  deflationary  USA  UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  economic  history  GFC  sovereign  crisis  consumer  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  QE  monetization  monetisation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  monetary  transmission  mechanism  service  deleveraging  2014  recovery  greatrecession  greatdepression  Europe  PIGS  Neuverschuldung  Germany  austerity  IMF  book  lost  generation  lost  decade  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Wie Europa Schulden loswerden kann - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[Rogoff & Reinhart advocating financial repression] [...] [Because Austerity didn't work.] Tatsächlich habe die europäische Wirtschaftspolitik - die Haushaltsdefizite senkt und Strukturreformen für mehr Wachstum durchführt - recht wenig getan, um den Schuldenberg wirklich zu verringern. Die Politik könnte die Last für die nächsten Jahre sogar verschlimmert haben, sagen viele Volkswirte. Die Sparpolitik hat das Wachstum überraschend stark beeinträchtigt. Während die Hinweise darauf, dass die Strukturreformen tatsächlich die Wirtschaft beflügeln, eher überschaubar ausfallen. Stattdessen sinken Einkommen, Gewinne und Steuereinnahmen, was die Schuldenlast immer schwerer erträglich macht.
debt  servicing  sovereign  debt  crisis  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  Europe  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  liquidity-trap  QE  KennethRogoff  liberal  economic  reform  economic  history  MarioDraghi  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  youth  unemployment  austerity  IMF  Japan  UK  USA  budget  deficit  France  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  New  Normal  PIMCO  Mohamed  El-Erian  debt  jubilee  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  private  debt  public  debt  household  debt  carmenreinhart  WallStreet  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  communication  babyboomers  haircut  PIGS  toobigtofail  TBTF  Richardkoo 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Worrying trends for the UK economy
In other words, the record amount of private debt, which has just reached £1.43 trillion, points to how borrowing has fuelled consumption. As we saw from the crash five years ago when debt was lower than now, debt-fuelled consumption isn't a sustainable or reliable source of growth. [...] Could the UK be facing what the US economist Larry Summers has described as America's "secular stagnation". It's a worry that the ageing population and a slower growth of the labour force mean a slower growing economy.
GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  UK  2013  economic  history  recovery  austerity  deflationary  deflation  inflation  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  output-gap  productivity  larrysummers  stagflation  stagnation  secular  cycle  Japan  lostdecade  lostgeneration  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  spare  capacity 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
Bubbles, Regulation, and Secular Stagnation - NYTimes.com
In brief, there is a case for believing that the problem of maintaining adequate aggregate demand is going to be very persistent – that we may face something like the “secular stagnation” many economists feared after World War II. [...] The stability of prices and output masked an underlying unsustainable growth in leverage. [...] Our current episode of deleveraging will eventually end, which will shift the IS curve back to the right. But if we have effective financial regulation, as we should, it won’t shift all the way back to where it was before the crisis. Or to put it in plainer English, during the good old days demand was supported by an ever-growing burden of private debt, which we neither can nor should expect to resume; as a result, demand is going to be lower even once the crisis fades. [...] our current situation may well go on much longer than anyone currently imagines.
student  loan  debt  lobby  deregulation  monetary  policy  lobbyist  asset  bubble  modern  monetary  theory  reflation  dual  mandate  fiscal  stimulus  Lobbying  BOE  BOJ  macroeconomics  policy  folly  QE  liquidity  trap  inflation  targeting  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  bubble  political  error  paulkrugman  austerity  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  nominal  GDP  targeting  dis-inflation  deleveraging  regulation  economics  public  debt  secular  stagnation  inflation  private  debt  balance  sheet  recession  mandate  debt  jubilee  GFC  complexity  excess  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  consumer  debt  liquidity-trap  political  folly  WWII  lostdecade  greatrecession  policy  error  regulators  debtoverhang  Wicksellian  natural  interest  rate  NIRP  Fed  microeconomics  economic  history  Super  Cycle  stagflation  Great  Moderation  leverage  stagnation  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  ZIRP  USA  household  debt  fiscal  theory  Japan  fiscal  deficit 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau über die Zinspolitik der EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Aber am Ende ist das alles Haarspalterei. Es läuft auf dasselbe Ergebnis hinaus: Die Zinsen werden lange bei null bleiben, wahrscheinlich über mehrere Jahre. Solange es keine Anzeichen für eine dauerhaft steigende Inflation gibt - und die wird es auf absehbare Zeit nicht geben - solange wird sich dieser Ausblick nicht ändern. [...] Es besteht ein klarer Zusammenhang zwischen Geldmenge und den Preisen für Wertpapiere. [...] Es besteht die akute Gefahr, dass ähnlich wie in Japan vor zwanzig Jahren die Geldpolitik nicht greift, solange der Bankensektor so krank ist.
Greece  monetary  policy  JörgAsmussen  bond  bubble  incentive  asset  bubble  Europe  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  sentiment  BOE  banking  crisis  deflation  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  dis-inflation  deleveraging  asset  allocation  inflation  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Spain  GFC  capital  allocation  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  banking  union  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  LTRO  OMT  NIRP  communication  Fed  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetarism  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
What The ECB's "Unprecedented" Forward Guidance Means | Zero Hedge
Europe struck in credit crisis - liquidity trap. & other problems - Politics / Brussels - one to mention. >> "The move clearly marks an innovative step in the ECB's communication and policy strategy for a bank that previously had always refused to pre-commit on interest rates." >> Problem is - ECB will have it hard to maneuver out of the measures, end schemes, etc. "Monetary Policy is no Panacea." Ben Bernanke. + >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-04/diminishing-effects-qe-programs
unemployment  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  M3  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  imbalance  political  error  creditcrunch  forward  guidance  trustagent  austerity  Taper  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Politics  PIIGSFB  GFC  MarioDraghi  output-gap  European  Commission  Euro  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  OMT  NIRP  communication  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  escape  velocity  ZIRP  PIIGS  Germany 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Mark Carney wastes no time in stamping his authority - Telegraph
Osborne fiscal plan of austerity till 2015/16 Rates don't go up beyond 2015 If market rates go up and make it more expensive for gov to borrow during tough times - will do QE - artificially lower the price again. >>> "Carney’s “not warranted” comment was tantamount to saying he expects rates to remain at 0.5pc until at least 2015. The vogue for “communication” is catching. In Australia, the central bank governor, Glenn Stevens, demonstrated how not to do it, after a “joke” backfired earlier this week, crashing the currency until his deputy calmed things down. [...] At the European Central Bank, president Mario Draghi was more successful. In a break with protocol, he said rates would be at current or lower levels “for an extended period of time”, delighting stock markets on the continent as they interpreted it to mean 2016 at the earliest."
currency  debasement  unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  MarioDraghi  output-gap  foreignexchange  BOE  ECB  benbernanke  greatrecession  QE  NIRP  2013  Fed  communication  PIGS  UK  debt  monetisation  sovereign  debt  crisis  youth  unemployment  forward  guidance  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  ZIRP  participation  rate  Taper  PIIGS  greatdepression  deleveraging  RBA  GeorgeOsborne  debt  monetization  centralbanks  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Breaking Bad Habits by Stephen S. Roach - Project Syndicate
Unable to facilitate balance-sheet repair or stimulate real economic activity, QE has, instead, become a dangerous source of instability in global financial markets. [...] There is good reason to believe that China’s new leaders are now determined to wean the economy off ever-mounting (and destabilizing) debt – especially in its rapidly expanding “shadow banking” system. [...] Financial markets are having a hard time coming to grips with the new policy mindset in the world’s two largest economies. [...] Breaking bad habits is hardly a painless experience for liquidity-addicted investors.
monetary  policy  GFC  unintended  consequences  New  Normal  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  monetary  system  addiction  benbernanke  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  greatrecession  China  QE  NIRP  2013  Fed  Greenspan-Put  alangreenspan  shadowbanking  financial  repression  stephenroach  creditcrunch  bubble  ZIRP  Taper  USA  greatdepression  deleveraging  toobigtofail  PBOC  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Schwache Wirtschaft: Frankreich gerät in die Rezession - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Belastet wurde die Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Quartalsvergleich vor allem durch gesunkene Investitionen und geringere private Haushaltsausgaben. Zudem fielen die Exporte, während die Importe stiegen. Gestützt wurde das Bruttoinlandsprodukt lediglich durch gestiegene Staatsausgaben. Diese Stütze für die Konjunktur könnte aber auch bald ausfallen: Frankreichs Regierung will 2014 zum ersten Mal seit mehr als 50 Jahren weniger ausgeben als im laufenden Jahr.
2013  recession  trust  stagflation  Europe  confidence  structural  imbalance  France  austerity  greatdepression  competitiveness  Impediments  faultlines  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
UK banking shortfall mostly patched up | ForexLive
The FT is out with a sensational headline saying ‘PRA to expose £26bn bank funding gap’ but the details of the story show that the numbers don’t account for measures already taken this year or are scheduled over the next 18 months. The Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds and Barclays account for 90% of the shortfall but each has only about £1-2bn more to raise.
liquidity  debtoverhang  trust  GFC  UK  confidence  RBS  creditcrunch  capital  Lloyds  trustagent  liquid  assets  greatdepression  banking  crisis  deleveraging  Barclays  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2013/speech670.pdf
UK’s King Last Speech: UK needs more Bank of England stimulus as recovery is not assured. >> UK's future still uncertain. Reflective in Cable (GBPUSD). While others do much better. >> "Despite this encouraging picture, growth is not yet strong enough to reduce the considerable margin of spare capacity in the economy. Nor is recovery at an adequate rate fully assured. The weakness of the euro area and the problems of the UK banking system continue to act as a drag on growth. So the need to support the recovery remains. [...] unemployment remains unnecessarily high. [...] Both nominal and real interest rates are at unsustainably low levels. There is an understandable yearning for a return to normality [...] Monetary policy cannot provide the answer. [... Banking > ...] It is insufficient capital that restricts lending [+ holding not enough liquid assets]. And, without a resilient banking system, it will be difficult to sustain a recovery."
unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  reflation  zombie  banks  capital  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  Discount  Window  Facility  policy  folly  Recapitalisation  liquidity  QE  price  stability  inflation  targeting  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  devaluation  political  error  imbalance  creditcrunch  Recapitalization  trustagent  hunt  for  yield  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  global  imbalances  inflation  debt  monetization  governance  balance  sheet  recession  Leverage  GFC  complexity  output-gap  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  too  big  to  jail  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  policy  error  debtoverhang  Special  Scheme  NIRP  trust  economic  history  confidence  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  MervynKing  toobigtofail  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
IMF Admits Mistakes on Greece Bailout - WSJ.com
"The International Monetary Fund is set to admit to major missteps over the past three years in its handling of the bailout of Greece, the first spark in a debt crisis that spread across Europe." > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-05/imf-admits-it-idiot-and-liar "" The greater beneficiary of the 2010 bailout wasn't so much Greece as the wider euro-zone, the document suggested. It described the rescue as a "holding operation" that "gave the euro area time to build a firewall to protect other vulnerable members and averted potentially severe effects on the global economy." "" >> + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oecd-und-eu-kommission-gegen-euro-sparpolitik-und-fuer-mehr-inflation-a-903575.html
monetary  policy  Politics  GFC  monetary  theory  Europe  accountability  accounting  European  Commission  GoldmanSachs  Euro  Troika  Brussels  ECB  political  folly  policy  error  greatrecession  policy  folly  debtoverhang  ChristineLagarde  trust  economic  history  fiscal  policy  Debt  Super  Cycle  confidence  political  error  sovereign  crisis  trustagent  austerity  PIIGS  fiscal  theory  greatdepression  balance  sheet  recession  IMF  bailout 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: EU-Pläne zum Sparkurs helfen nicht - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der EU-Plan zur Aufweichung des Sparkurses ist weder politisch, rechtlich noch moralisch akzeptabel - er löst nicht einmal das Problem der Krise. Die neuen Taschenspielertricks aus Brüssel sind der Höhepunkt der Verlogenheit. [...] Die Angst geht um in Brüssel. Nach zwei Jahren harter internationaler Kritik gegen den wirtschaftspolitischen Sparkurs knickt die EU-Kommission jetzt ein. Sie will von der Austerität abweichen und auf Wachstum setzen.
unemployment  PIIGSFB  GFC  Europe  accounting  zombie  banks  Troika  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  2013  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  PIGS  budget  deficit  sovereign  crisis  youth  unemployment  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  Germany  IMF  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Sir Mervyn King issues Help to Buy mortgage warning
The outgoing Bank of England governor warns a government plan to boost the housing market with part-mortgage guarantees has no long-term place. >> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_gEzqfRltw - facilitating even more an unequal society. Political Voter Move.
QE  debtoverhang  NIRP  monetary  policy  2013  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  UK  reflation  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  bubble  ZIRP  BOE  greatdepression  deleveraging  MervynKing  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  GeorgeOsborne  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB's Draghi 'ready to act if needed'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvHvyvPd0PU + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/ezb-senkt-leitzins-auf-rekordtief-von-0-5-prozent-a-897701.html "Die Währungshüter hoffen, dass die Finanzbranche das billige Geld in Form von Krediten an Unternehmen und Verbraucher weiterreichen wird." + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-senkt-leitzins-draghis-gefaehrlicher-rettungsversuch-a-897771.html ... >> After the GFC, banks should have been privatised (creditors to take haircuts) in 2010/11, those who were not banks (ie lending), but mere zombie banks. Europe is doing the same mistake as Japan. >> see Apple example - unintended consequences. Microsoft too.
monetary  policy  financialcrisis  GFC  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  New  Normal  liquidity-trap  banking  crisis  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  lostdecade  greatrecession  policy  folly  QE  debtoverhang  communication  economic  history  financial  repression  Debt  Super  Cycle  NPL  PIGS  bubble  error  creditcrunch  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Bill Gross' World View In Four Words | Zero Hedge
Gross: The world looks 4 a new Keynes but w/ hi deficits & 0% rates there is only a long tough slog ahead @ best & the unimaginable @ worst. >> "Tough Slog" or "The Unimaginable"
PIMCO  debtoverhang  QE  2013  trust  GFC  economic  history  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  ZIRP  austerity  liquidity-trap  greatdepression  deleveraging  Bill  Gross  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The Chart Making The Fed Nervous | Zero Hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-19/fed-governor-stein-warns-when-tbtf-bank-fails-depositors-will-be-cyprused "all too clear that part of the Dodd-Frank resolution authority guidelines, a bailout is no longer an option." Cyprus was the first, and will not be the last incident of bail-in solution for TBTF >> this whole this is a replay of Japan 90s and 2000s
monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  BOE  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  Cyprus  deposit  levy  policy  folly  QE  SIFI  PIGS  UK  Error  bail-in  trustagent  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  inflation  expectation  deleveraging  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  monetary  theory  output-gap  haircut  derivatives  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  Insured  Bank  Deposits  political  folly  crisis  greatrecession  lostdecade  debtoverhang  FDIC  LTRO  OMT  Fed  trust  economic  history  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  toobigtofail  POMO  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Umfrage im Mittelstand: Deutsche Unternehmer schreiben Euro-Zone ab - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Unternehmer als Wachstumskritiker Deutschlands Mittelständler zeigen sich in der Umfrage sogar als Wachstumskritiker. 88 Prozent unterschrieben die Aussage, die deutsche Volkswirtschaft müsse sich auf Grenzen des Wachstums einstellen. Nach Ansicht der Commerzbank-Analystin Ulrike Rondorf spiegelt sich darin auch die derzeitige Kapitalismusdebatte. "Ich denke, dass diese Einschätzung der Unternehmer der breiten Öffentlichkeit entspricht, die ein Streben nach höherem Wachstum und Gewinnen ablehnt." > but without growth, you can't serve existing debt burden.
academics  Politics  GFC  Europe  academia  European  Commission  fault  lines  Troika  Structural  Impediments  greatrecession  policy  folly  debtoverhang  2013  economic  history  PIGS  imbalance  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  Error  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  economic-thought  deleveraging  global  imbalances  mittelstand  Germany  faultlines  balance  sheet  recession  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
El-Erian's Summary: "Virtually Every Market Is Trading At Very Artificial Levels" | Zero Hedge
http://live.wsj.com/public/page/embed-85F75B51_F954_46E1_861D_EC47CC278296.html >> "if these levels aren’t validated by the fundamentals, then investors will get hurt." WORTH LISTENING EVERY MINUTE. > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/not-what-low-volatility-environment-looks > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/margin-clerks-were-working " Long experience in the markets will inform you that this kind of massive sell-off is indicative of someone or perhaps a numbers of someones with serious problems. " [...] The markets can turn on a dime and the move can be severe and painful. [...] The cash provided by the Central Banks has been leveraged to the nines as indicated by the severity of the sell-off in both gold and equities. > Europe lost out on design and execution to overcome crisis. > Rating Agencies have monopoly. With monopoly comes problems. > Trust, but verify.
unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  BOJ  Gold  Structural  Impediments  Equity  QE  2013  UK  debt  monetisation  creditcrunch  imbalance  debt  bubble  Error  trustagent  austerity  bubble  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  ratingagencies  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  PIMCO  Politics  GFC  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  ECB  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  political  folly  income  growth  China  greatrecession  uncertainty  lostdecade  monopoly  debtoverhang  Fed  trust  economic  history  financial  repression  bubbles  income-growth  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Former ECB Board Member Bini Smaghi Says Draghi Will Weaken Euro - Bloomberg
ECB Struggles The Frankfurt-based ECB is struggling to find new ways to help the 17-nation euro economy shake off its second recession in four years. While Draghi signalled this month that policy makers are considering cutting interest rates further, he said they haven’t yet come up with a plan to get banks lending to small and medium-sized businesses -- something the ECB has long identified as an area of economic weakness. Bini Smaghi said there’s no point in the ECB engaging in QE like the Fed, as that would involve it buying the sovereign bonds of countries like Germany, which already have record-low borrowing costs.
double-dip  debtoverhang  monetary  policy  2013  trust  economic  history  monetary  theory  Europe  MarioDraghi  confidence  structural  imbalance  creditcrunch  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  liquidity-trap  PIIGS  banking  crisis  greatdepression  ECB  deleveraging  bank  crisis  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Carmen Reinhart: "No Doubt. Our Pensions Are Screwed." | Zero Hedge
Only when inflation picks up, which is ultimately going to happen, will it become obvious that central banks have become subservient to governments." [...] Nations "seldom just grow themselves out of debt," as so many believe is possible, "you need a combination of austerity, so that you don't add further to the pile of debt, and higher inflation, which is effectively a subtle form of taxation," with the consequence that people are going to lose their savings. Reinhart succinctly summarizes, "no doubt, our pensions are screwed." [...] http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/interview-with-harvard-economist-carmen-reinhart-on-financial-repression-a-893213.html / http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/how-central-banks-are-threatening-the-savings-of-normal-germans-a-860021.html
monetization  unemployment  monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  modern  monetary  theory  transferring-wealth  reflation  academia  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  carmenreinhart  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  deposit  levy  creditcrisis  QE  2013  moralhazard  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  creditcrunch  bail-in  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  inflation  centralbanks  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  debt  jubilee  haircut  unintended  consequences  Troika  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  debt  restructuring  bank  crisis  Abenomics  greatrecession  debtoverhang  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  bailout 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Broke And Broker: US Casino Spending Tumbling Back To Great Recession Levels | Zero Hedge
Need yet another confirmation showing the US consumer has entered a phase of terminal retrenchment (in addition to all the other ones of course)? Below is a chart of Casino gaming spending in the past 15 years. What the chart shows is quite clear: at a drop of 4.3% Y/Y, far below the cyclical rises in 2011 and 2012, discretionary spending allocated for proceeds one can "afford to lose" is back to Great Recession levels, and sliding lower.
debtoverhang  USA  2013  greatdepression  GFC  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  debt 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The Complete (And Very Disturbing) European Bank Loan-To-Deposit Ratios: A Redux | Zero Hedge
The chart [above] explains why not only is Europe's several asset constrained, it is also running out of funding, in the form of depositor cash: the most critical bank liability. Remember: without incremental deposits, banks can not invest in new assets, unless they generate cash from operations, and thus grow shareholder equity. There is a problem: as the final chart below shows, Europe, and especially Scandinavia which has consistently remained off the radar, is literally off the charts when it comes to LTD ratios.   With banks such as Danske, SHB, Swebank, DnB, and Nordea literally at 200% Loan-to-Deposits, but most other European banks too, even the tiniest outflow in deposit cash (ala what is happening in the PIIGS) will send the system into yet another liquidity spasm.
2013  scandinavia  GFC  Europe  creditcrunch  debt  bubble  banking  crisis  greatdepression  deleveraging  2012  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  greatrecession  lostdecade  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Consumer spending: Dropping shopping | The Economist
Britain’s squeezed households largely explain the country’s flatlining economy. + That is worrying, since other prices are highly unlikely to stand still. Firms facing higher energy bills tend to pass on cost increases. Another worry is the continued fall in sterling says Mr Kara. The pound has depreciated by close to 6% in 2013 against the currencies of Britain’s main trading partners. When the pound loses value imports become more expensive, cutting buying power.
currency  debasement  debtoverhang  2013  monetary  policy  GFC  consumption  economic  history  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  bubble  zombie  banks  sovereign  debt  crisis  consumer  debt  davidcameron  greatdepression  budget2013  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  public  debt  private  debt  GeorgeOsborne  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
For Everyone Shocked By What Just Happened... And Why This Is Just The Beginning | Zero Hedge
Today, lots of people woke up in shock and horror to what happened in Cyprus: a forced capital reallocation mandated by political elites under the guise of an "equity investment" in insolvent banks, which is really code for a "coercive, mandatory wealth tax." If less concerned about political correctness, one could say that what just happened was daylight robbery from savers to banks and the status quo. These same people may be even more shocked to learn that today's Cypriot "resolution" is merely the first of many such coercive interventions into personal wealth, first in Europe, and then everywhere else. [...] And with inflation woefully late in appearing and "inflating away" said debt overhang, Europe first is finally moving to Plan B, and is using Cyrprus as its Guniea Pig. http://www.scribd.com/doc/130778664/BCG-Back-to-Mesopotamia
debtoverhang  ESM  2013  Politics  debt  jubilee  financial  repression  economic  history  Europe  reflation  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  greatdepression  deflation  debt  restructuring  Cyprus  inflation  greatrecession  bailout  IMF  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Watchdog contradicts Cameron on impact of austerity on growth
In a speech on the economy on Thursday, the prime minister said the independent watchdog had made it "absolutely clear" that spending cuts and tax rises were not responsible for the weak economy. But the OBR said it had been arguing for years that this was an issue. Labour said it was an "embarrassing rebuke" for the prime minister.
debtoverhang  OBR  2013  Politics  communication  GFC  lostgeneration  economic  history  UK  stagnation  austerity  davidcameron  greatdepression  deleveraging  GeorgeOsborne  lostdecade  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Banks reduce loans, in spite of Funding for Lending
The number of loans being offered by banks has continued to fall in spite of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS). The scheme, which began in August last year, was designed to encourage banks to lend more money, both to individuals and businesses, and boost the economy. But the Bank of England has announced that net lending fell by £2.4bn in the final quarter of last year compared with the previous three months.
monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  zombie  banks  BOE  deflation  2012  greatrecession  debtoverhang  2013  trust  fiscal  policy  UK  confidence  creditcrunch  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  austerity  ZIRP  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  global  imbalances  MervynKing  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  GeorgeOsborne  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
IceCap Asset Management: "The Worst Is Over" | Zero Hedge
The worrisome feature of today’s global economy is that despite trillions (we repeat: trillions) in various forms of stimulus, economies around the World have not returned to the pre-2008 growth rates. > ECB may be able to artificially suppress PIIGS interest rates. but it can't create growth with QE and ZIRP > same with credit growth - stagnant. even with zero deposit interest rates for banks (overnight deposit @ECB). > that happend with Japan too. low interest rates. no growth. nil inflation. --- / What is missing is Confidence in Politics and Central Banks / ---
debtoverhang  QE  unemployment  monetary  policy  2013  Politics  trust  lostgeneration  economic  history  monetary  theory  MarioDraghi  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  ZIRP  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  ECB  Richardkoo  lostdecade  greatrecession  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
If You Thought The European Crisis Was Over... | Zero Hedge
http://www.voxeu.org/article/panic-driven-austerity-eurozone-and-its-implications [...] Austerity has failed. European Banks remain Rotten to the Core Sovereigns remain in Crisis [...] Since the start of the debt crisis financial markets have provided wrong signals; led by fear and panic, they pushed the spreads to artificially high levels and forced cash-strapped nations into intense austerity that produced great suffering. [...] Panic and fear are not good guides for economic policies. [...] The intense austerity programs that have been dictated by financial markets create new risks for the Eurozone. While the ECB 2012 decision to be a lender of last resort in the government bond markets eliminated the existential fears about the future of the Eurozone, the new risks for the future of the Eurozone now have shifted into the social and political sphere.
2008  debtoverhang  2013  Politics  GFC  lostgeneration  economic  history  Europe  zombie  banks  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  PIIGS  banking  crisis  greatdepression  WallStreet  deleveraging  lostdecade  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
february 2013 by asterisk2a
A Century Of French And Italian Economic Decline | Zero Hedge
Italy overtook Japan with the worst real GDP growth of all advanced economies since 1991. [...] France has the most most worker-friendly environment of 40 countries analyzed. [...] All things considered, from an investment standpoint, caution continues to be warranted. [...] As shown, problems in Europe appear to be taking their toll on EU corporate profitability.
debtoverhang  2013  lostgeneration  economic  history  Europe  Italy  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  PIIGS  greatdepression  GDP  deleveraging  Austerity  inflation  lostdecade  Japan  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
february 2013 by asterisk2a
IMF's epic plan to conjure away debt and dethrone bankers - Telegraph
The Chicago Plan Revisited

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12202.pdf

Benes and Kumhof argue that credit-cycle trauma - caused by private money creation - dates deep into history and lies at the root of debt jubilees in the ancient religions of Mesopotian and the Middle East.

[...]

The key of the Chicago Plan was to separate the "monetary and credit functions" of the banking system. "The quantity of money and the quantity of credit would become completely independent of each other."

[...] Private lenders would no longer be able to create new deposits "ex nihilo". New bank credit would have to be financed by retained earnings.

[...] The finding is startling. Simons and Fisher understated their claims. It is perhaps possible to confront the banking plutocracy head without endangering the economy.
WallStreet  plutocracy  oligopol  banking  banking  crisis  miltonfriedman  Fed  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  System  fiat  money  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  IMF  fiat  currency  fractional  reserve  banking  IrvingFisher  Irving  debt  jubilee  credit  bubble  credit  cycle  economic  cycle  economic  history 
october 2012 by asterisk2a
Relax, central banks can still save us - Telegraph
Military demobilisation allowed an instant cut in the US budget deficit. Today the rot is structural, a failure to stop health care and ageing costs spiralling out of control.

The eurozone obviously needs looser money. M3 broad money is stagnant and real M1 deposits have turned negative, even in Germany and Holland. Real M1 is contracting at an alarming pace in Italy. EMU growth has wilted, five countries are spinning towards default, and the banking system is seizing up. This cries out for a change of course, yet the European Central Bank is still tightening.
USA  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balancesheet  recession  greatrecession  GFC  depression  history  paulkrugman  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  monetary  policy  supply  M1  M3  velocity  money  creditcrunch  error  folly  benbernanke  trichet  2011  August  JacksonHole  lesson  greatdepression  fiscal  austerity  europe  UK  presidency  barackobama  davidcameron  angelamerkel  sarkozy  GeorgeOsborne 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Why a Bad Economy Is the Best Time to Start a Business
In 2000, the high point, investors anteed up more than $100 billion into startups. By 2008, that number had dropped by almost three-fourths to $27 billion, and in 2009 it plummeted to less than $20 billion, about the same level as 1998. Nevertheless it appears that money is spent more wisely.

“We were built to survive a recession while guys funded during the up market weren’t,” Chatterjee says, “Venture capitalists gave us extra due diligence and we had to be singularly focused on providing value to customers.”
recession  entrepreneurship  business  entrepreneur  startup  inspiration  economy  greatrecession  GreatDepression  history  startups  jobcreation  venturecapital  investment  investing  investor  investors  leanstartup  technology 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Chandler: Policy makers are repeating the mistakes of the 1930s - Credit Writedowns
Greece Spain Portugal Italy Ireland France
.
Ironically, the effect of the bond vigilantes and the social resistance may be similar insofar as the economic impact is negative. Ultimately what is at stake is the how the costs (broadly understood) of the bailouts and stimulus are going to be distributed, not just in terms of classes, but also sectors, industries and countries.
.
socialised Recession? Not really.
Bnks are in good shape (relativly speaking).
But the world economies are hurting even more than before.
GreatRecession  2010  M3  usa  europe  recession  recovery  comment  opinion  GreatDepression  history  lesson  sovereign  debt  Greece  credit  demand  keynes  Spain  Portugal  Italy  Ireland  France  Keynesianism 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
Davos: A lesson from History – Telegraph Blogs
Yes, plenty of mistakes have been made, and are still being made. This may not have been scientific progress in the strict sense that the advent of antibiotics were; but it is a lesson that although we are often doomed to catch the same diseases as our predecessors, we are not consigned to the same treatment.

The pessimists, on the other hand, might point out that we still aren’t out of the woods yet. But since when has Davos been about pessimism?
davos  recession  hisotry  lesson  bailout  greatdepression  greatrecession  economic  financial 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
Economic View - When Attitudes Are a Big Obstacle to Recovery - NYTimes.com
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, annual growth of business output per labor hour averaged 3.2 percent from 1948 to 1973, but only 1.9 percent from 1973 to 2008.

Ever since the long-term productivity slowdown became visible, the economist Samuel Bowles, now at the Santa Fe Institute, has said that its causes are to be found as much in the loss of “hearts and minds” of workers and investors as in technology.

This month at Yale, in lectures titled “Machiavelli’s Mistake,” he spoke of the error of thinking that a high-performance economy could be based on self-interest alone. And he warned of the overuse of incentives that appeal to individual gain.
recession  recovery  USA  psychology  greatdepression  history  lesson  malaise  management  people  believe  robertshiller  study  book  economy  gdp  growth  measurement 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
Op-Ed Columnist - That 1937 Feeling - NYTimes.com
What’s left? A boom in business investment would be really helpful right now. But it’s hard to see where such a boom would come from: industry is awash in excess capacity, and commercial rents are plunging in the face of a huge oversupply of office space.
2010  realestate  stimulus  recovery  recession  paulkrugman  greatdepression  inventory  economics  fed  exitstrategy 
january 2010 by asterisk2a
Money from helicopters is Ben Bernanke's modern encapsulation of Milton Friedman's bold revelation - Telegraph
Milton Friedman for monetary expansion, but against fiscal expansion. Believes in free markets, private savings and spending.
.
Friedman blamed the Depression on mistaken monetary policy not too-loose money before the Crash, when stock prices bubbled, but afterwards, when they sank. For Friedman, the crash and downturn were a stock-market correction and "a normal recession" which policy mistakes by the US Federal Reserve turned into a decade-long global disaster.

What went wrong was that the US money supply was allowed to contract by a third after the shock of the market rout. The Fed, in Friedman's view, ought to have prevented that from happening by stimulating money growth to prevent the self-reinforcing spiral into depression.
miltonfriedman  benbernanke  recession  recovery  uk  USA  bailout  monetary  policy  expansion  creditcrunch  greatdepression  economics  history 
november 2009 by asterisk2a
Housing market: Why the downturn’s not over yet - Times Online
-- governments tried to stop the Investment Bubble -- they did successfully! But now a dubble-dip recession looms.
.
While our experts agreed that the rally would continue short term, they were surprisingly downbeat about the longer outlook. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), said that while prices could be back to their 2007 peak within eight months, the recovery was “unhealthy” because it had come so far, so fast. George Buckley, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, declared the market was “still in a bubble”.

The panel raised concerns that the strength of the house price recovery could provoke the Bank into raising interest rates to contain inflation — precipitating a “double dip”. Last week, Halifax said property values increased 1.6% during September.
recession  greatdepression  uk  inflation  deflation  asset  bubble  housing  housemarket  2009  double-dip  liquidity  QE  quantitative-easing 
october 2009 by asterisk2a
We need to keep the stakes and garlic handy - Telegraph
The collapse in aggregate demand is putting sharp downward pressure on pay inflation. There have already been some cases where the workforce has agreed to significant wage cuts to preserve their jobs. The last time such a major change in the climate governing pay happened in the UK was in the early 1990s. Pay inflation came down sharply from 8pc-10pc to 3pc-4pc, where it has remained ever since – until now. To get into mild deflationary territory, pay does not have to fall; it merely needs to rise by less than the rate of productivity growth, with the result that unit labour costs fall. Once you reach that point you have the precondition for deflation, without any help from lower commodity prices or squeezed profit margins.

In most of the developed West, the underlying growth rate of productivity is about 2pc. Accordingly, if the average rate of pay increase falls below 2pc, the conditions will be in place for sustained deflation.
recession  demand  wages  income  scenario  uk  japan  monetary  policy  inflation  deflation  opinion  economist  economy  greatdepression  academic 
october 2009 by asterisk2a

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