asterisk2a + greatdepression + greatrecession   135

BBC News - Farewell to the mother of all depressions
[ THE RECOVERY, THE GLASS IS HALF FULL. PERIOD. ]But nonetheless many will be slightly depressed that although the service economy is now just under 3% bigger than it was at the peak, manufacturing is still more than 7% smaller, and the production industries as a whole have been diminished by 11%. As I have bored on about for a while, although it is heart-warming to see UK manufacturing growing right now, there has been no rebalancing of the economy back towards the makers. Also, within services, the contribution of shoppers to the recovery remains immense - and the retail trade made the biggest contribution to the latest quarter's services surge. That suggests we may be at a premature end to households' attempts to strengthen their finances and pay down debts - and shows that growth in the economy remains perilously sensitive to the cost of money.
UK  recovery  greatrecession  2014  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  zombie  consumer  debtoverhang  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  BOE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  greatdepression  lost  decade  lost  generation  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  underemployed  IMF  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  London  economies  of  agglomeration  Aberdeen  industrial  policy  comparative  advantage  competitiveness  competitive  advantage  tax  code  taxation  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  tax  credit  tax  free  income  GFC  creditcrisis  creditcrunsh  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  manufacturing  Consumerism  consumerist  consumer  debt  reflation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  household  debt  economic  history 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Eurokrise: Angela Merkel betreibt riskante Rettung - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Es sind die inneren Widersprüche einer Währungsunion, die nur das sein will, aber nicht mehr, die uns jetzt einholen. Anstatt die Schuldenkrise durch eine Schuldenkonferenz zu lösen, verlagern wir das Problem, indem wir komplizierte Auffangschirme schaffen, die die Schulden lediglich von einer Ecke des Systems in die andere hinüberschieben. Das sieht gut aus, ändert aber an der Überschuldung von Griechenland und Portugal nicht einen Deut.
debt  jubilee  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  haircut  PIGS  Europe  Politics  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  lost  generation  lost  decade  secular  stagnation  debtoverhang  deleveraging  NPL  balance  sheet  recession  greatrecession  greatdepression  2014  Germany  divergence  faultlines  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Impediments  structural  deficit  debt  restructuring  restructuring  infrastructure  investment  Leadership 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
DIW-Chef Fratzscher zu Banken-Stresstest, Lohnerhöhung - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Abhängigkeit zwischen Banken und Staaten hat in den letzten Jahren besorgniserregend zugenommen. Die berechtigte Sorge ist daher, dass Bankenrettungen die Staatshaushalte der hochverschuldeten Eurostaaten überfordert. Dann könnten wir leicht wieder in eine Krisensituation wie im Sommer 2012 geraten, als die Anleihezinsen für viele Eurostaaten drastisch nach oben geschossen sind. [...] Die größte Herausforderung für Europa ist, Wachstum zu schaffen. Nur durch ein deutlich stärkeres Wachstum kann es gelingen, dass die Unternehmen Beschäftigte einstellen, die Banken faule Kredite abbauen und die Staaten ihre Finanzen in Ordnung bringen. [...] [ +see end - Income Growth across the board in Germany Needed. Recent 2017 wage floor/minimum wage was overdue. Overdue. ]
GDP  Europe  zombie  banks  PIGS  NPL  non-performing  loan  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  Japan  economic  history  debt  jubilee  lost  decade  lost  generation  Super  Cycle  ECB  liquidity  trap  history  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  2014  infrastructure  investment  underemployed  structural  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  unemployment  Germany  France  faultlines  Impediments  structural  imbalance  structural  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  tradedeficit  trade  deficit  academia  academics  policy  error  policy  folly  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  QE  monetary  transmission  mechanism  deleveraging  Politics  Career  Politicians  ownership  accountability  transparency  Bundesbank  BuBa  income  growth  minimum  wage  wage  floor  coldprogression  kalte  Progression 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Henrik Müller über Wirtschaftswachstum 2014: Die Pessimisten sind los - SPIEGEL ONLINE
GDP  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  2014  economic  history  digital  economy  happiness  index  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  knowledge  worker  knowledge  economy  Age  digital  artist  digital  content  content  creator  New  academia  academics  Wikipedia  freemium  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  deflation  deflationary  lost  generation  lost  decade  Year  of  Code  White-collar  Blue-collar  hybrid  work  workless  6-hour  work  day  workforce  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  productivity  output  gap  Silicon  Valley  education  policy  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  disposable  income  leisure  time  Robert  Skidelsky  volunteering  volunteer  maximisation  of  happiness  Jack  of  All  Trades  Future  Future  of  book  Tim  Ferriss  work  life  balance  worklife  underemployed  self-employment  freelance  freelancing  complexity  unknown  unknowns  GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  Europe  UK  USA  PIGS  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Richard  Koo  Super  Cycle  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  debt  jubilee  Japan  BOE  Fed  ECB  Open  Source  Linux  GitHub  BOJ  sharing  economy  less  more  zeitgeist  generational  change  Millennials  generationy  Consumerism  digital  digital  consume 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Is This What A Bursting Bubble Looks Like? - YouTube
- bear market, not a 2008/09 decline, more like a lost decade of little productivity growth and very very slow closing of the still existing output gap. - companies benefit form technological progress (accelerating); get more done with less people. +++ https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/posts/10154276062445062
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july 2014 by asterisk2a
Live chart: The low countries - YouTube
Timothy Geithner says no risk of U.S. losing it's AAA credit rating - http://youtu.be/0HDCvqgxrrE || Geithner: Japan's 'Lost Decade' Not America's Fate - http://youtu.be/fax8BIPKcP8 "the hope it's gonna heal itself, to hope you can grow yourself out of it" growing your way out of it" || +!!! Timothy Geithner Fired Robert Shiller? http://youtu.be/bIwBEYoSqKY >> economics has no humans in it !!! no real world example. Conventional wisdom so strong. "We've got too scientific." And anybody who is 'flaky' gets pushed out [Robert Schiller]. >>Wenn du dich auf andere verlaesst, bist du verlassen.<< || Robert Shiller: Speculative Asset Prices - http://youtu.be/oBXPOWytDMs "present value". google.co.uk/search?q=present+value+Robert+Schiller || + Robert Shiller: Nobel Prize Winning Economist - http://youtu.be/ABvtKGrIDUs "it can't be an exact science (forecasting) because of the complexity, mass data; uncertain, certain, and data that can't be put in numbers, storystelling -> feedback loops ...
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
Der Crash ist die Lösung | SWR1 Leute - YouTube
banks still TBTF, Systemrelevant. << enabled by Own Lobby influencing Career Politicians. haftungsgarantien von ECB are no more capitalism. +++ &&& +++ If even Germany - Wirtchaftslokomotive - export meister - does still have a budget deficit, while being that country that produces more than it consumes, who else if not Germany? But still doesn't. +++ "Die Zeit der Rendite ist vorbei." +++ Schulden zu haben, man ist nicht frei. Frueher hat man das sich gekauft was man sich leisten konnte, ohne kreditkarte, ohne dispo, ohne bankkredit. +++ NEW crash will come of even bigger proportion and even more rubble to clear up afterwards than 2008/9 - GFC. +++ Always buy in tranches, dispersed over time. +++ fractional reserve banking leads to this UBER crash as we live on a planet with finite resources. Current GDP fetish needs to stop. Change of mind, thinking, course. << this is the same with Mobile Creative, future workforce, Software eats the world, UK's productivity gap.
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - UK unemployment total falls to 2.16m, wage inflation to remain low
[threat of wage inflation spiral far off because of multiple underlying factors not allowing it measured wholly across the uk (taking the other country called london out of the picture)] - "Weak pay growth and the 'cost of living crisis' remains the Achilles heel of the economic recovery," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit. "But it should not be long until we see earnings growth accelerate as the labour market continues to tighten. Pay growth should pick up in coming months, perhaps significantly." +++ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10838393/Bank-of-Englands-slack-approach-leaves-economy-at-risk.html +++ http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/03/monetary-policy-0 +++ http://youtu.be/fvTdWWUkUNM?t=2m10s
output  gap  slack  in  economy  UK  recovery  greatrecession  greatdepression  2014  2015  inflation  deflation  productivity  deflationary  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  wage  growth  earnings  growth  austerity  BOE  Mark  Carney  ZIRP  spare  capacity  academia  economic  history  New  Normal  financial  repression  underemployed  underemployment  workforce  labour  market  structural  unemployment  inflation  expectation  wage  inflation  London  wage  inflation  spiral  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  wages  living  wage  minimum  wage  industrial  policy  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  skill-biased  technological  change  capital  skills  skill  skills  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  World  Flat  globalization  globalisation  competitive  advantage  competitive  competitiveness  Competition  comparative-advantage  comparative  advantage  21stcentury  Year  of  Code 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Kreditklemme trotz EZB-Programmen: Die Banken sind unschuldig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Milan und Sufi sind nicht die ersten, die auf diese Idee kamen. Richard Koo aus Japan entwickelte schon in den neunziger Jahre die These von einer Bilanz-Rezession. Wenn Länder, Firmen und Haushalte überschuldet sind, dann wollen sie sich einfach nur noch entschulden, egal wie günstig die Kredite sind. Koo warnte davor, dass alle gleichzeitig die Schulden abbauen. In Japan hörte man auf ihn. Dort entschuldeten sich die Firmen und die Haushalte, und es verschuldete sich der Staat. In Europa bauen alle ihre Schulden gleichzeitig ab: Staat, Unternehmen, Haushalte. Koo glaubt daher auch, dass wir in eine weit schlimmere Lage geraten werden als Japan. Wir sind auf Deflation programmiert. Koos Thesen sind plausibel. Sie sind aber keine fundierte ökonomische Analyse. Genau das haben jetzt Milan und Sufi geliefert - zumindest für die USA. Wenn sich diese Ergebnisse auch bei uns bestätigen sollten, dann hieße das: Wir machen in Europa so ziemlich alles falsch.
Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  Japan  deflation  deflationary  USA  UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  economic  history  GFC  sovereign  crisis  consumer  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  QE  monetization  monetisation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  monetary  transmission  mechanism  service  deleveraging  2014  recovery  greatrecession  greatdepression  Europe  PIGS  Neuverschuldung  Germany  austerity  IMF  book  lost  generation  lost  decade  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Zinsentscheid der EZB: Draghi plant Minus vor Zinssatz - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Schon immer ließ sich das Ende eines Systems besonders schwer erkennen, wenn man Teil des Systems ist. Im Jahre sieben nach Ausbruch der Finanzkrise ist es langsam Zeit für die Frage: Was, wenn die vermeintliche Ausnahme in Wahrheit die Regel ist? Wenn es sich bei der Kombination aus niedrigen Zinsen, niedrigem Wachstum und niedriger Inflation, die weite Teile Europa seit 2008 ebenso im Griff hält wie die USA und Japan, um die neue Normalität handelt? Wenn das seit Jahrzehnten praktizierte westliche Wirtschaftsmodell, sich immer niedrigere Wachstumsraten mit immer höheren Staatsschulden zu erkaufen, an seinem Schlusspunkt angelangt ist? +++ http://bit.ly/SxhnZq "Nicht Europa ist am Ende - sondern der Kapitalismus, so wie wir ihn kennen. [...] Im angelsächsischen Finanzkapitalismus wachsen die Vermögen der Reichen und stagnieren die Einkommen der anderen." [...] [EU Election Result is a vote] gegen das ungerechte Wirtschaftssystem, das ihre Lebensgrundlage gefährdet.
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
Dax knackt 10.000 Punkte: Rekord wegen billigen Gelds von EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Erstmals überspringt der Dax die Marke von 10.000 Punkten. Das beweist erneut, wie sehr der deutsche Leitindex vom billigen Geld der Notenbank abhängig ist - und wie schnell die gute Stimmung an der Börse vorbei sein kann. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/dax-steigt-ueber-10-000-punkte-auf-neuen-rekordstand-a-972849.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/geldanlage-bei-niedrigzinsen-gold-immobilien-einen-jaguar-a-973671.html ""Wohin also jetzt mit den Ersparnissen?"" +++ Spekulationsblasen: Wirtschaftsweiser warnt vor Gefahren der Niedrigzinsen - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ezb-wirtschaftsweiser-wieland-warnt-vor-spekulationsblasen-a-975400.html +++ Niedrigzinsen: Schäuble befürchtet Immobilienblase in Deutschland - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/zinsen-schaeuble-befuerchtet-immobilienblase-in-deutschland-a-976154.html
asset  bubble  Betongold  Beton  Gold  ZIRP  QE  OMT  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  asset  allocation  property  bubble  London  PIGS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity-trap  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  hunt  for  yield  New  Normal  financial  repression  2014  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  banking  union  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  macroprudential  policy  Politics  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  austerity  fiscal  policy  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  faultlines  imbalance  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  lost  decade  lost  generation  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  Wolfgang  Schäuble 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Bond Yields Lowest Since Napoleon Are No Comfort to Europe Amid Deflation Fight - Businessweek
Germany issued 5yr bond with a yield of .45%, last year same type of issue was arount the .3% mark. OUCH, way below inflation. - "" “The outright level of yields is suggesting an incredibly weak outlook for growth,” “It’s a powerful signal telling you policy is too tight and that there’s complacency toward the risks. Not a great deal has been solved. We’ve still got bank stress tests to come, too low growth and too low inflation.” ""
deflation  deflationary  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Super  Cycle  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  unemployment  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  OMT  QE  economic  history  recovery  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  2014  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  fiscal  policy  Career  Politicians  Politics  Germany 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Thomas Piketty: on tour with the 'rock-star economist' -video | Business | theguardian.com
Thomas Piketty. funny thing, at this meeting in min 3. no handshake, no spreading germs. less sick days. ;) ... +++ Faisal Islam on The Default Line - video interview - http://www.theguardian.com/business/video/2013/aug/16/faisal-islam-default-line-video || + Michael Lewis: the stock market is rigged – video interview - http://www.theguardian.com/business/video/2014/apr/30/michael-lewis-the-stock-market-is-rigged-video-interview ||
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may 2014 by asterisk2a
Wie Europa Schulden loswerden kann - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[Rogoff & Reinhart advocating financial repression] [...] [Because Austerity didn't work.] Tatsächlich habe die europäische Wirtschaftspolitik - die Haushaltsdefizite senkt und Strukturreformen für mehr Wachstum durchführt - recht wenig getan, um den Schuldenberg wirklich zu verringern. Die Politik könnte die Last für die nächsten Jahre sogar verschlimmert haben, sagen viele Volkswirte. Die Sparpolitik hat das Wachstum überraschend stark beeinträchtigt. Während die Hinweise darauf, dass die Strukturreformen tatsächlich die Wirtschaft beflügeln, eher überschaubar ausfallen. Stattdessen sinken Einkommen, Gewinne und Steuereinnahmen, was die Schuldenlast immer schwerer erträglich macht.
debt  servicing  sovereign  debt  crisis  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  Europe  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  liquidity-trap  QE  KennethRogoff  liberal  economic  reform  economic  history  MarioDraghi  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  youth  unemployment  austerity  IMF  Japan  UK  USA  budget  deficit  France  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  New  Normal  PIMCO  Mohamed  El-Erian  debt  jubilee  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  private  debt  public  debt  household  debt  carmenreinhart  WallStreet  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  communication  babyboomers  haircut  PIGS  toobigtofail  TBTF  Richardkoo 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Die Gefahren des Jahres 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Beide Seiten haben Grund zu Pessimismus. Die strukturkonservative Bundeskanzlerin sieht mit Schrecken, dass Frankreich, Spanien und Italien keineswegs geneigt sind, deutsch zu werden. Euro-föderale Kritiker wie ich sind darüber enttäuscht, dass es weder eine Fiskalunion noch eine echte Bankenunion geben wird. Für uns ist das, was letzte Woche beschlossen wurde, keine Bankenunion, sondern nur ein schlechter Witz. Jedes Land bleibt für seinen eigenen Bankensektor verantwortlich. Das vorrangige ökonomische Ziel, die Risiken von Banken und Staaten zu trennen, ist dahin. Stattdessen ist die Bankenunion nur noch ein komplizierter administrativer Prozess.
Europe  europeanunion  banking  union  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  austerity  2013  2014  France  Spain  Italy  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  Japan  economic  history  history  Angela  Merkel  political  folly  political  error  FrancoisHollande  policy  error  policy  folly  ECB  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richardkoo  reflation  deflationary  deflation  inflation  ZIRP  QE  LTRO  unintended  consequences  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  unconventional  monetary  policy 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Worrying trends for the UK economy
In other words, the record amount of private debt, which has just reached £1.43 trillion, points to how borrowing has fuelled consumption. As we saw from the crash five years ago when debt was lower than now, debt-fuelled consumption isn't a sustainable or reliable source of growth. [...] Could the UK be facing what the US economist Larry Summers has described as America's "secular stagnation". It's a worry that the ageing population and a slower growth of the labour force mean a slower growing economy.
GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  UK  2013  economic  history  recovery  austerity  deflationary  deflation  inflation  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  output-gap  productivity  larrysummers  stagflation  stagnation  secular  cycle  Japan  lostdecade  lostgeneration  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  spare  capacity 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Autumn Statement: IFS on UK cost of living statistics
More people are in work than in 2007, but incomes have fallen in real terms over that time as costs have generally risen faster than wages.
cost  of  living  greatrecession  purchasing-power  income-growth  greatdepression  GFC  2013  unintended  consequences  inflation  deflation  deflationary  economic  history  UK  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Fears over 40% fall in part-time students
t examines why part-time students have fallen by 40% in two years, equivalent to a reduction of 105,000. There are concerns that such part-time courses are necessary to provide the skills needed by industry. Sir Eric Thomas, who headed the review, said "something is going wrong". There has been widespread recognition of the economic importance of part-time courses in allowing adults to improve their skills.
skills  student  loan  debt  Career  Politicians  employment  squeezed  middle  class  GFC  complexity  StudentLoans  Higher  Education  unintended  consequences  consumer  debt  davidcameron  Bubble  policy  error  greatrecession  policy  folly  debtoverhang  economic  history  working  poor  stagflation  squeezed  middle  UK  income  mobility  austerity  middle  class  Part-Time  Students  household  debt  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  Part-Time  Study  Toff  deleveraging  social  mobility  GeorgeOsborne  studentdebt 
october 2013 by asterisk2a
Spanien: Arbeiten bis zum Umfallen | Europa Aktuell - YouTube
nothing is safe. safety is an illusion. just change the law - and they can use your pension to pay debt off. done everywhere else. Portugal. Ireland. some east-European countries.
Spain  GFC  trust  pension  fund  Debt  Super  Cycle  confidence  pension  obligation  pension  scheme  sovereign  crisis  trustagent  greatdepression  pension  democracy  greatrecession 
october 2013 by asterisk2a
Bubbles, Regulation, and Secular Stagnation - NYTimes.com
In brief, there is a case for believing that the problem of maintaining adequate aggregate demand is going to be very persistent – that we may face something like the “secular stagnation” many economists feared after World War II. [...] The stability of prices and output masked an underlying unsustainable growth in leverage. [...] Our current episode of deleveraging will eventually end, which will shift the IS curve back to the right. But if we have effective financial regulation, as we should, it won’t shift all the way back to where it was before the crisis. Or to put it in plainer English, during the good old days demand was supported by an ever-growing burden of private debt, which we neither can nor should expect to resume; as a result, demand is going to be lower even once the crisis fades. [...] our current situation may well go on much longer than anyone currently imagines.
student  loan  debt  lobby  deregulation  monetary  policy  lobbyist  asset  bubble  modern  monetary  theory  reflation  dual  mandate  fiscal  stimulus  Lobbying  BOE  BOJ  macroeconomics  policy  folly  QE  liquidity  trap  inflation  targeting  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  bubble  political  error  paulkrugman  austerity  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  nominal  GDP  targeting  dis-inflation  deleveraging  regulation  economics  public  debt  secular  stagnation  inflation  private  debt  balance  sheet  recession  mandate  debt  jubilee  GFC  complexity  excess  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  consumer  debt  liquidity-trap  political  folly  WWII  lostdecade  greatrecession  policy  error  regulators  debtoverhang  Wicksellian  natural  interest  rate  NIRP  Fed  microeconomics  economic  history  Super  Cycle  stagflation  Great  Moderation  leverage  stagnation  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  ZIRP  USA  household  debt  fiscal  theory  Japan  fiscal  deficit 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
PIMCO Mohamed El-Erian nonfarm payroll labor market 23 September 2013 | ForexLive
But – these headline numbers are not the full picture, there is much detail in the report that paints a much more sobering view: [...] Taken together, “rather than confirming the paradigm of gradual and steady improvement, these disaggregated numbers attest to a highly segmented, multi-speed labor market – one with features that could become more deeply embedded in the structure of the economy” http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-downside-of-us-labor-market-data-by-mohamed-a--el-erian
microeconomic  policy  unemployment  2013  monetary  policy  Fed  communication  microeconomics  GFC  complexity  economic  history  NFP  working  poor  stagflation  recovery  babyboomers  USA  Taper  participation  rate  barackobama  greatdepression  WallStreet  long-term  unemployment  presidency  greatrecession 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Five Years After Lehman, BIS Ex-Chief Economist Warns "It's Worse This Time" | Zero Hedge
The share of "leveraged loans" or extreme forms of credit risk, used by the poorest corporate borrowers, has soared to an all-time high of 45% - 10 percentage points higher than at the peak of the crisis in 2007. + http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-14/record-high-grade-leverage-means-pik-toggle-lbo-debt-back-and-worse-ever // The Bank Of International Settlements Warns The Monetary Kool-Aid Party Is Over www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-23/bank-international-settlements-warns-monetary-kool-aid-party-over ""central banks must head for the exit and stop trying to spur a global economic recovery... cheap and plentiful central bank money had merely bought time, warning that more bond buying would retard the global economy’s return to health by delaying adjustments to governments’ and households’ balance sheets." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10310598/BIS-veteran-says-global-credit-excess-worse-than-pre-Lehman.html
unemployment  employment  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  ope  reflation  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  carmenreinhart  BOJ  LBO  balancesheet  policy  folly  QE  liquidity  2013  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  political  error  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  centralbanks  liberal  economic  reform  faultlines  GFC  monetary  theory  exuberance  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  global  economy  monetary  stimulus  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  liquidity-trap  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  benbernanke  bank  crisis  Abenomics  rebalancing  China  greatrecession  policy  error  productivity  LTRO  NIRP  OMT  Fed  communication  economic  history  Super  Cycle  stagflation  leverage  KennethRogoff  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  BIS  POMO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance  fiscal  deficit 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Reuters Breakingviews: Beware the "blinkered" Fed - YouTube
Fed policy / theory goes along the line that you can ignore rising and falling asset prices (bubbles) that come and go according with your policy actions.
unemployment  monetary  policy  complexity  asset  bubble  monetary  theory  reflation  unintended  consequences  rebalancing  greatrecession  QE  NIRP  2013  communication  Fed  short-term  thinking  economic  history  stagflation  structural  imbalance  recovery  ZIRP  Taper  USA  greatdepression  WallStreet  inflation  faultlines 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Carney: BOE to consider more stimulus if financial conditions tighten or recovery risks falling short | ForexLive
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2013/speech675.pdf >> Comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney: Upward move in market expectations of BOE rates could, at margin, affect real economy BOE’s forward guidance was clear that we would provide more stimulus if necessary Signs are the UK recovery is broad based, set to continue Period of growth needed to begin to reduce space capacity meaningfully Depressed output, temporary inflation factors mean it is right to bring inflation back to target more slowly Nobody should assume 7% unemployment is trigger for rate hike Unemployment must be at least 7% for hike BOE to reduce required liquid asset holdings for major banks meeting 7% capital thresholds Acutely aware of unsustainable credit and house price growth, will monitor it closely
QE  ZIRP  NIRP  BOE  2013  greatdepression  monetary  policy  communication  Mark  Carney  UK  greatrecession  forward  guidance 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Silly Season news | ForexLive
Put bluntly, we now have a potentially dangerous financial structure which encourages borrowing, and discourages saving. The rush to create growth has thrown to one side any inflation concerns - for now. BUT there will be an election in 2015 – at the latest. Should the forward guidance prove accurate, we will enter the build up to that election with continued low interest rates, rising house prices and a positive growth outlook – fertile ground for a Conservative Party overall majority. HOWEVER, should inflation or employment become at odds with the strategy, Mr Carney may be under a lot of pressure to prove his neutrality by tightening in the run up to that election – and as I know, what is least convenient is likely to happen…. + http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/12/uk-home-buyers-boost-purchases/ - Debt Fueled Recovery.
QE  NIRP  unemployment  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Debt  Super  Cycle  property  bubble  stagflation  UK  unintended  consequences  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  ZIRP  austerity  davidcameron  BOE  greatdepression  MPC  zombie  consumer  inflation  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  GeorgeOsborne  greatrecession 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - UK wages decline among worst in Europe
The money left over at the end of each month is getting less and less because our salaries have been flatlining while shopping, petrol and energy bills have been rising steadily. [...] Clamping down on inflation, which has been above its 2% target for four years, doesn't appear to be a priority for the new regime at the Bank of England. Mark Carney et al say they will tolerate it above target until unemployment falls below 7%. The tolerance of voters might be tested in the interim as their spending power continues to get eroded.
2013  monetary  policy  economic  history  Mark  Carney  fiscal  policy  working  poor  stagflation  UK  austerity  BOE  greatdepression  inflation  greatrecession 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Breakingviews: Don't sink the pound, Governor Carney! - YouTube
UK inflation rises less than expected in June, but still jumps to its highest level in over a year. With prices rising faster than wages, the new BoE Governor Mark Carney mustn't push down the pound.
currency  debasement  monetary  policy  consumer  squeeze  currency  war  Mark  Carney  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  BOE  deflation  greatrecession  QE  NIRP  2013  UK  recovery  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  ZIRP  greatdepression  sticky  wages  zombie  consumer  wage  inflation  inflation  GeorgeOsborne 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau über die Zinspolitik der EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Aber am Ende ist das alles Haarspalterei. Es läuft auf dasselbe Ergebnis hinaus: Die Zinsen werden lange bei null bleiben, wahrscheinlich über mehrere Jahre. Solange es keine Anzeichen für eine dauerhaft steigende Inflation gibt - und die wird es auf absehbare Zeit nicht geben - solange wird sich dieser Ausblick nicht ändern. [...] Es besteht ein klarer Zusammenhang zwischen Geldmenge und den Preisen für Wertpapiere. [...] Es besteht die akute Gefahr, dass ähnlich wie in Japan vor zwanzig Jahren die Geldpolitik nicht greift, solange der Bankensektor so krank ist.
Greece  monetary  policy  JörgAsmussen  bond  bubble  incentive  asset  bubble  Europe  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  sentiment  BOE  banking  crisis  deflation  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  dis-inflation  deleveraging  asset  allocation  inflation  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Spain  GFC  capital  allocation  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  banking  union  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  LTRO  OMT  NIRP  communication  Fed  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetarism  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
What The ECB's "Unprecedented" Forward Guidance Means | Zero Hedge
Europe struck in credit crisis - liquidity trap. & other problems - Politics / Brussels - one to mention. >> "The move clearly marks an innovative step in the ECB's communication and policy strategy for a bank that previously had always refused to pre-commit on interest rates." >> Problem is - ECB will have it hard to maneuver out of the measures, end schemes, etc. "Monetary Policy is no Panacea." Ben Bernanke. + >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-04/diminishing-effects-qe-programs
unemployment  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  M3  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  imbalance  political  error  creditcrunch  forward  guidance  trustagent  austerity  Taper  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Politics  PIIGSFB  GFC  MarioDraghi  output-gap  European  Commission  Euro  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  OMT  NIRP  communication  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  escape  velocity  ZIRP  PIIGS  Germany 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Mark Carney wastes no time in stamping his authority - Telegraph
Osborne fiscal plan of austerity till 2015/16 Rates don't go up beyond 2015 If market rates go up and make it more expensive for gov to borrow during tough times - will do QE - artificially lower the price again. >>> "Carney’s “not warranted” comment was tantamount to saying he expects rates to remain at 0.5pc until at least 2015. The vogue for “communication” is catching. In Australia, the central bank governor, Glenn Stevens, demonstrated how not to do it, after a “joke” backfired earlier this week, crashing the currency until his deputy calmed things down. [...] At the European Central Bank, president Mario Draghi was more successful. In a break with protocol, he said rates would be at current or lower levels “for an extended period of time”, delighting stock markets on the continent as they interpreted it to mean 2016 at the earliest."
currency  debasement  unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  MarioDraghi  output-gap  foreignexchange  BOE  ECB  benbernanke  greatrecession  QE  NIRP  2013  Fed  communication  PIGS  UK  debt  monetisation  sovereign  debt  crisis  youth  unemployment  forward  guidance  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  ZIRP  participation  rate  Taper  PIIGS  greatdepression  deleveraging  RBA  GeorgeOsborne  debt  monetization  centralbanks  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
What's Next For Portugal? | Zero Hedge
The Portuguese economy cannot afford further delays Under the optimistic scenario forecast by the EU/IMF/ECB Troika, Portuguese debt is still expected to peak at 124% of GDP in 2014. Any delays will likely see this rise quickly, especially with growth already underperforming. Portuguese ten year borrowing costs have already shot up a staggering 1.5% since Gaspar’s resignation, reaching close to 8%. This highlights the fragility of the economic situation. Only a month ago, there was widespread talk of Portugal returning to the markets ahead of schedule – now it is difficult to see how it will exit its bailout programme in spring 2014 without any further assistance (the ECB’s bond buying programme, the OMT, still remains the most likely candidate).
Portugal  debtoverhang  OMT  2013  PIGS  Europe  European  Commission  sovereign  debt  crisis  bail-in  austerity  Troika  PIIGS  greatdepression  ECB  policy  error  greatrecession  policy  folly  bailout 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Breaking Bad Habits by Stephen S. Roach - Project Syndicate
Unable to facilitate balance-sheet repair or stimulate real economic activity, QE has, instead, become a dangerous source of instability in global financial markets. [...] There is good reason to believe that China’s new leaders are now determined to wean the economy off ever-mounting (and destabilizing) debt – especially in its rapidly expanding “shadow banking” system. [...] Financial markets are having a hard time coming to grips with the new policy mindset in the world’s two largest economies. [...] Breaking bad habits is hardly a painless experience for liquidity-addicted investors.
monetary  policy  GFC  unintended  consequences  New  Normal  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  monetary  system  addiction  benbernanke  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  greatrecession  China  QE  NIRP  2013  Fed  Greenspan-Put  alangreenspan  shadowbanking  financial  repression  stephenroach  creditcrunch  bubble  ZIRP  Taper  USA  greatdepression  deleveraging  toobigtofail  PBOC  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Schwache Wirtschaft: Frankreich gerät in die Rezession - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Belastet wurde die Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Quartalsvergleich vor allem durch gesunkene Investitionen und geringere private Haushaltsausgaben. Zudem fielen die Exporte, während die Importe stiegen. Gestützt wurde das Bruttoinlandsprodukt lediglich durch gestiegene Staatsausgaben. Diese Stütze für die Konjunktur könnte aber auch bald ausfallen: Frankreichs Regierung will 2014 zum ersten Mal seit mehr als 50 Jahren weniger ausgeben als im laufenden Jahr.
2013  recession  trust  stagflation  Europe  confidence  structural  imbalance  France  austerity  greatdepression  competitiveness  Impediments  faultlines  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
UK banking shortfall mostly patched up | ForexLive
The FT is out with a sensational headline saying ‘PRA to expose £26bn bank funding gap’ but the details of the story show that the numbers don’t account for measures already taken this year or are scheduled over the next 18 months. The Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds and Barclays account for 90% of the shortfall but each has only about £1-2bn more to raise.
liquidity  debtoverhang  trust  GFC  UK  confidence  RBS  creditcrunch  capital  Lloyds  trustagent  liquid  assets  greatdepression  banking  crisis  deleveraging  Barclays  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2013/speech670.pdf
UK’s King Last Speech: UK needs more Bank of England stimulus as recovery is not assured. >> UK's future still uncertain. Reflective in Cable (GBPUSD). While others do much better. >> "Despite this encouraging picture, growth is not yet strong enough to reduce the considerable margin of spare capacity in the economy. Nor is recovery at an adequate rate fully assured. The weakness of the euro area and the problems of the UK banking system continue to act as a drag on growth. So the need to support the recovery remains. [...] unemployment remains unnecessarily high. [...] Both nominal and real interest rates are at unsustainably low levels. There is an understandable yearning for a return to normality [...] Monetary policy cannot provide the answer. [... Banking > ...] It is insufficient capital that restricts lending [+ holding not enough liquid assets]. And, without a resilient banking system, it will be difficult to sustain a recovery."
unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  reflation  zombie  banks  capital  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  Discount  Window  Facility  policy  folly  Recapitalisation  liquidity  QE  price  stability  inflation  targeting  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  devaluation  political  error  imbalance  creditcrunch  Recapitalization  trustagent  hunt  for  yield  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  global  imbalances  inflation  debt  monetization  governance  balance  sheet  recession  Leverage  GFC  complexity  output-gap  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  too  big  to  jail  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  policy  error  debtoverhang  Special  Scheme  NIRP  trust  economic  history  confidence  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  MervynKing  toobigtofail  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Fotos von Kilian Foerster: Spaniens verlorene Generation - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Keine Arbeit, keine Perspektive, keine Hoffnung - in Spanien wächst die Generación Cero heran. Der Fotograf Kilian Foerster hat Jugendliche in Madrid fotografiert, die unter den Folgen der Wirtschaftskrise leiden.
austerity  greatdepression  2013  society  GFC  lostgeneration  Spain  human  tragedy  property  bubble  Generación  Cero  greatrecession  youth  unemployment 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
IMF Admits Mistakes on Greece Bailout - WSJ.com
"The International Monetary Fund is set to admit to major missteps over the past three years in its handling of the bailout of Greece, the first spark in a debt crisis that spread across Europe." > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-05/imf-admits-it-idiot-and-liar "" The greater beneficiary of the 2010 bailout wasn't so much Greece as the wider euro-zone, the document suggested. It described the rescue as a "holding operation" that "gave the euro area time to build a firewall to protect other vulnerable members and averted potentially severe effects on the global economy." "" >> + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oecd-und-eu-kommission-gegen-euro-sparpolitik-und-fuer-mehr-inflation-a-903575.html
monetary  policy  Politics  GFC  monetary  theory  Europe  accountability  accounting  European  Commission  GoldmanSachs  Euro  Troika  Brussels  ECB  political  folly  policy  error  greatrecession  policy  folly  debtoverhang  ChristineLagarde  trust  economic  history  fiscal  policy  Debt  Super  Cycle  confidence  political  error  sovereign  crisis  trustagent  austerity  PIIGS  fiscal  theory  greatdepression  balance  sheet  recession  IMF  bailout 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Mark Carney benefited more from Canada than Canada benefited from him - a scathing farewell | ForexLive
>> Central Bankers and Policy makers were on the back foot very much. [...] "Carney hit the panic button like every other central banker after Lehman collapsed. Even then, he didn’t hit it hard enough until December when the global economy was on its knees. Rates didn’t bottom until late April 2009 — more than a month after Bernanke proclaimed ‘green shoots’ in the US economy."
lehmanbrothers  monetary  policy  Fed  GFC  Mark  Carney  economic  history  benbernake  UK  BOE  greatdepression  Canada  MervynKing  BOC  centralbanks  greatrecession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: EU-Pläne zum Sparkurs helfen nicht - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der EU-Plan zur Aufweichung des Sparkurses ist weder politisch, rechtlich noch moralisch akzeptabel - er löst nicht einmal das Problem der Krise. Die neuen Taschenspielertricks aus Brüssel sind der Höhepunkt der Verlogenheit. [...] Die Angst geht um in Brüssel. Nach zwei Jahren harter internationaler Kritik gegen den wirtschaftspolitischen Sparkurs knickt die EU-Kommission jetzt ein. Sie will von der Austerität abweichen und auf Wachstum setzen.
unemployment  PIIGSFB  GFC  Europe  accounting  zombie  banks  Troika  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  2013  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  PIGS  budget  deficit  sovereign  crisis  youth  unemployment  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  Germany  IMF  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Sir Mervyn King issues Help to Buy mortgage warning
The outgoing Bank of England governor warns a government plan to boost the housing market with part-mortgage guarantees has no long-term place. >> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_gEzqfRltw - facilitating even more an unequal society. Political Voter Move.
QE  debtoverhang  NIRP  monetary  policy  2013  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  UK  reflation  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  bubble  ZIRP  BOE  greatdepression  deleveraging  MervynKing  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  GeorgeOsborne  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Saxo Bank CEO On The 'Eurozone Minefield': "This Crisis Will Not Pass" | Zero Hedge
Cyprus was indeed a template for bail ins and that outright confiscatory wealth taxes, disguised as solidarity payments, could be used to raise funds. "The governments of Europe need money, and the private sector has it. It is as simple as that. Be very paranoid," he said, warning investors that the mattress may be a safer place to deposit money over the weekend than their bank accounts. "Frankly, it is a complete mess. And it is a mess that gets worse and worse every day," is how the outspoken truthiness begins, adding, "anyone with a rational view of the world now sees the currency collaboration as a historic failure that can lead to even further fatal consequences for Europe and the continent’s competitiveness vis-à-vis the rest of the world."
currency  union  2013  Politics  lostgeneration  economic  history  Europe  Saxo  Bank  unintended  consequences  Political  error  Lars  Seier  Christensen  Euro  Policy  bail-in  europeanunion  Troika  greatdepression  folly  Cyprus  NiallFerguson  greatrecession  lostdecade  folly 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
David Stockman On The New Deal Myths Of Recovery | Zero Hedge
"The new deal was a political gong show, not a golden era of enlightened economic policy. It shattered the foundation of sound money and inaugurated a régime of capricious fiscal and regulatory activism that inexorably fueled the growth of state power and the crony capitalism which thrives on it. But it did not end the Great Depression or save capitalism from the alleged shortcomings which led to the crash. In fact, the New Deal introduced a severe dose of economic nationalism and autarky at a time when the only hope for speedy recovery was a reopening of world trade and reestablishment of a stable international monetary régime.... in reality, the notion that the New Deal had pioneered a road map to recovery by means of countercyclical fiscal policy is mostly a postwar academic legend."
QE  NIRP  2013  monetary  policy  GFC  financial  repression  New  Normal  ZIRP  austerity  greatdepression  book  toobigtofail  greatrecession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Marc Faber: "Something Will Break Very Badly" | Zero Hedge
Q: Is it a good time to buy gold? Faber: Nobody knows whether it’s a good time to buy gold or not…as I have repeatedly said in my reports, I buy gold every month and on the recent decline I bought more at $1,400 and I have an order at $1,300 and one at $1,200 and one at $1,100 an ounce. But they were not filled, just the $1,400.   I will never sell my gold, as I repeatedly told people. .... My maximum allocation to gold at present time is 25 per cent of assets.” [...] "In the 40 years I’ve been working as an economist and investor, I have never seen such a disconnect between the asset market and the economic reality... Asset markets are in the sky and the economy of the ordinary people is in the dumps, where their real incomes adjusted for inflation are going down and asset markets are going up... Something will break very bad."
QE  ZIRP  NIRP  2013  greatdepression  GFC  bubbles  asset  allocation  Gold  unintended  consequences  greatrecession  wealth  management 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Junk's heyday is here and now - YouTube
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-09/deutsche-bank-we-fully-understand-why-authorities-wouldnt-want-free-markets-operate- "We would stress that we fully understand why the authorities wouldn't want free markets to operate today as the risk of a huge global default and unemployment cycle would still be very high. However their intervention has a cost in our opinion. Socially this might be worth paying but we do think it exists."
bankruptcy  cycle  unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  zombie  banks  fixed  income  miltonfriedman  BOJ  artificial  demand  Insolvenzverschleppung  QE  lostgeneration  demand  and  supply  property  bubble  hayek  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  bubble  default  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  debt  monetization  centralbanks  insolvency  cycle  Free  Lunch  IMF  default  cycle  GFC  refinancing  corporate  debt  haircut  unintended  consequences  high  yield  debt  Student  Loan  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  default  rate  credit  bubble  greatrecession  lostdecade  NIRP  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  monetarism  sovereign  debt  crisis  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  default  scenario  ZIRP  Junk  Bonds 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Economic policy: Paved with good intentions | The Economist
Although the debate [austerity] relates to the UK, I think it has a much wider resonance. And indeed, to a student of history, it has fascinating parallels; economic policy-making was rethought in the mid-1970s, but the same debates are popping up again. [...] Margaret Thatcher on ZIRP & QE "Let us print the money instead. Because what that is saying is let us quietly steal a cerain amount from every pound saved in building societies, in national savings, from every person who has been thrifty." [...] [ZIRP & QE is no free lunch - it has consequences, known and unknown, unintended.]
infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  Margaret  Thatcher  Mark  Carney  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  deflation  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  QE  intellectual  fiscal  policy  free  lunch  UK  PIGS  debt  monetisation  Martin  Wolf  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  economic-thought  deleveraging  economics  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  liberal  economic  reform  IMF  GFC  output-gap  unintended  consequences  margaretthatcher  Troika  davidcameron  greatrecession  debtoverhang  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetarism  ZIRP  demand-curve  PIIGS  fiscal  theory  supply-demand  MervynKing  GeorgeOsborne 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB's Draghi 'ready to act if needed'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvHvyvPd0PU + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/ezb-senkt-leitzins-auf-rekordtief-von-0-5-prozent-a-897701.html "Die Währungshüter hoffen, dass die Finanzbranche das billige Geld in Form von Krediten an Unternehmen und Verbraucher weiterreichen wird." + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-senkt-leitzins-draghis-gefaehrlicher-rettungsversuch-a-897771.html ... >> After the GFC, banks should have been privatised (creditors to take haircuts) in 2010/11, those who were not banks (ie lending), but mere zombie banks. Europe is doing the same mistake as Japan. >> see Apple example - unintended consequences. Microsoft too.
monetary  policy  financialcrisis  GFC  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  New  Normal  liquidity-trap  banking  crisis  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  lostdecade  greatrecession  policy  folly  QE  debtoverhang  communication  economic  history  financial  repression  Debt  Super  Cycle  NPL  PIGS  bubble  error  creditcrunch  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Bill Gross' World View In Four Words | Zero Hedge
Gross: The world looks 4 a new Keynes but w/ hi deficits & 0% rates there is only a long tough slog ahead @ best & the unimaginable @ worst. >> "Tough Slog" or "The Unimaginable"
PIMCO  debtoverhang  QE  2013  trust  GFC  economic  history  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  ZIRP  austerity  liquidity-trap  greatdepression  deleveraging  Bill  Gross  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The Chart Making The Fed Nervous | Zero Hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-19/fed-governor-stein-warns-when-tbtf-bank-fails-depositors-will-be-cyprused "all too clear that part of the Dodd-Frank resolution authority guidelines, a bailout is no longer an option." Cyprus was the first, and will not be the last incident of bail-in solution for TBTF >> this whole this is a replay of Japan 90s and 2000s
monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  BOE  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  Cyprus  deposit  levy  policy  folly  QE  SIFI  PIGS  UK  Error  bail-in  trustagent  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  inflation  expectation  deleveraging  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  monetary  theory  output-gap  haircut  derivatives  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  Insured  Bank  Deposits  political  folly  crisis  greatrecession  lostdecade  debtoverhang  FDIC  LTRO  OMT  Fed  trust  economic  history  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  toobigtofail  POMO  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
IMF Warns Spanish Debt-Load Is Unsustainable | Zero Hedge
The IMF warns Spain "will need to undertake unprecedented fiscal efforts to bring their debt ratios to traditional norms," as most countries have never experienced debt levels similar to current ones; and seemed to think a debt restructuring is more likely and will "entail substantial and long-lasting economic and social costs."
2013  lostgeneration  Spain  deposit  haircut  economic  history  haircut  European  Commission  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Troika  greatdepression  debt  restructuring  deposit  levy  lostdecade  greatrecession  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Umfrage im Mittelstand: Deutsche Unternehmer schreiben Euro-Zone ab - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Unternehmer als Wachstumskritiker Deutschlands Mittelständler zeigen sich in der Umfrage sogar als Wachstumskritiker. 88 Prozent unterschrieben die Aussage, die deutsche Volkswirtschaft müsse sich auf Grenzen des Wachstums einstellen. Nach Ansicht der Commerzbank-Analystin Ulrike Rondorf spiegelt sich darin auch die derzeitige Kapitalismusdebatte. "Ich denke, dass diese Einschätzung der Unternehmer der breiten Öffentlichkeit entspricht, die ein Streben nach höherem Wachstum und Gewinnen ablehnt." > but without growth, you can't serve existing debt burden.
academics  Politics  GFC  Europe  academia  European  Commission  fault  lines  Troika  Structural  Impediments  greatrecession  policy  folly  debtoverhang  2013  economic  history  PIGS  imbalance  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  Error  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  economic-thought  deleveraging  global  imbalances  mittelstand  Germany  faultlines  balance  sheet  recession  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
El-Erian's Summary: "Virtually Every Market Is Trading At Very Artificial Levels" | Zero Hedge
http://live.wsj.com/public/page/embed-85F75B51_F954_46E1_861D_EC47CC278296.html >> "if these levels aren’t validated by the fundamentals, then investors will get hurt." WORTH LISTENING EVERY MINUTE. > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/not-what-low-volatility-environment-looks > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/margin-clerks-were-working " Long experience in the markets will inform you that this kind of massive sell-off is indicative of someone or perhaps a numbers of someones with serious problems. " [...] The markets can turn on a dime and the move can be severe and painful. [...] The cash provided by the Central Banks has been leveraged to the nines as indicated by the severity of the sell-off in both gold and equities. > Europe lost out on design and execution to overcome crisis. > Rating Agencies have monopoly. With monopoly comes problems. > Trust, but verify.
unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  BOJ  Gold  Structural  Impediments  Equity  QE  2013  UK  debt  monetisation  creditcrunch  imbalance  debt  bubble  Error  trustagent  austerity  bubble  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  ratingagencies  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  PIMCO  Politics  GFC  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  ECB  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  political  folly  income  growth  China  greatrecession  uncertainty  lostdecade  monopoly  debtoverhang  Fed  trust  economic  history  financial  repression  bubbles  income-growth  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Former ECB Board Member Bini Smaghi Says Draghi Will Weaken Euro - Bloomberg
ECB Struggles The Frankfurt-based ECB is struggling to find new ways to help the 17-nation euro economy shake off its second recession in four years. While Draghi signalled this month that policy makers are considering cutting interest rates further, he said they haven’t yet come up with a plan to get banks lending to small and medium-sized businesses -- something the ECB has long identified as an area of economic weakness. Bini Smaghi said there’s no point in the ECB engaging in QE like the Fed, as that would involve it buying the sovereign bonds of countries like Germany, which already have record-low borrowing costs.
double-dip  debtoverhang  monetary  policy  2013  trust  economic  history  monetary  theory  Europe  MarioDraghi  confidence  structural  imbalance  creditcrunch  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  liquidity-trap  PIIGS  banking  crisis  greatdepression  ECB  deleveraging  bank  crisis  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Carmen Reinhart: "No Doubt. Our Pensions Are Screwed." | Zero Hedge
Only when inflation picks up, which is ultimately going to happen, will it become obvious that central banks have become subservient to governments." [...] Nations "seldom just grow themselves out of debt," as so many believe is possible, "you need a combination of austerity, so that you don't add further to the pile of debt, and higher inflation, which is effectively a subtle form of taxation," with the consequence that people are going to lose their savings. Reinhart succinctly summarizes, "no doubt, our pensions are screwed." [...] http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/interview-with-harvard-economist-carmen-reinhart-on-financial-repression-a-893213.html / http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/how-central-banks-are-threatening-the-savings-of-normal-germans-a-860021.html
monetization  unemployment  monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  modern  monetary  theory  transferring-wealth  reflation  academia  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  carmenreinhart  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  deposit  levy  creditcrisis  QE  2013  moralhazard  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  creditcrunch  bail-in  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  inflation  centralbanks  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  debt  jubilee  haircut  unintended  consequences  Troika  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  debt  restructuring  bank  crisis  Abenomics  greatrecession  debtoverhang  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  bailout 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
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