asterisk2a + finance   143

Bank of England orders financial firms to draft Brexit contingency plans | Business | The Guardian
uk may have to pay for, to keep, passporting rights, while euro clearing has to move to mainland.
Brexit  BOE  Mark  Carney  City  of  London  banking  insurance  finance  service  law  passporting  tax  evasion  avoidance  HMRC  money  laundering 
april 2017 by asterisk2a
Brexit has allowed the banks to get off Britain's naughty step | Business | The Guardian
The even better news for the banks is that they are no longer hated. Far from it. Much of the concern about how the UK will survive outside the EU has centred on the future of the City. For years, the banks have been trying to find a way of getting themselves off the public’s naughty step. Brexit has provided them with an opportunity that has been seized with relish. The City has played the post-referendum game masterfully. [...] The recession that the banks caused and the austerity that resulted created the sense of “them and us” – the notion of an unbalanced and unequal Britain – that led to Brexit. [...] constant demands that the government secures passporting rights to allow UK authorised institutions to operate freely across the EU27.
Brexit  banking  London  The  City  GFC  bank  bailout  corporatism  crony  neoliberalism  profit  maximisation  self-regulation  Regulation  regulators  BOE  FSA  trade  deal  UK  USA  Austerity  Finance  Services  economic  history  recovery  HMRC  tax  evasion  avoidance  capitalism  Lobby 
january 2017 by asterisk2a
‘The City’, by Tony Norfield - Banking as seen from the belly of the beast
[ current account deficit only affordable (thus also living standards) bc of City of London ] This is a man who writes without irony about “financial parasitism”. In The City: London and the Global Power of Finance, he seeks to document just how the UK and the US extract their pound of flesh from the rest of the world by dominating the financial flows that make international trade possible.

He argues that London’s leading role in foreign exchange trading, derivatives and overseas lending is an extension of its imperialist past. Creating complex financial products and charging for them has enabled the sector to requisition for the UK and London — and, of course, bankers themselves — a disproportionate share of the benefits of global trade. [...] [ extracting value from around the world channelling it back ] &! Novara Media interview - bit.ly/297c6D3
Brexit  City  of  London  banking  business  investment  banking  current  account  deficit  GBP  derivatives  financial  product  financial  services  Global  Finance  British  Empire  Imperialism 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
Casino Jack and the United States of Money (2010)
Director: Alex Gibney / Writer: Alex Gibney //&! https://youtu.be/zY5UuWkVq8g //&! all the bad fish got away! only the shark got caught // party and campaign financiers; wall street: fossil fuel followed by the emergence of silicon valley firms. // congress does not serve american people. average citizen does not have a voice. ... congress need of money exploited, fighting each other with more and more money! getting a leg up on your opponent. who they get the money to be elected or re-elected? those who have already money! [...] public finance would end it!
USA  corruption  Greed  bribery  revolving  door  PAC  Super  PAC  presidential  election  2016  shareholder  capitalism  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  exploitation  Washington  Lobbying  lobby  lobbyist  Career  Politicians  Jack  Abramoff  campaign  donation  campaign  finance  Party  Funding  constituency  trust  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  global  warming  environmental  damage  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  ecological  damage  GFC  Enron  Worldcom  bank  bailout  TBTF  too  big  to  fail  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  conglomerate  multinational  tax  evasion  tax  amnesty  tax  avoidance  money  laundering  influence  peddling  Special  Interest  Group  groups  vested  Fossil  fuel  industry  Silicon  Valley  subprime  No  Representation  post-racial  America  American  Dream  plutocracy  oligarchy  Super  Rich  1%  democracy  meritocracy  meritocratic  Gini  coefficient 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Im Zweifel links: Nimm, was du kriegen kannst!
Der globale Kapitalismus macht die ganze Welt zum Spielplatz der Reichen. Die Panama Papers erinnern daran: Nicht die Flüchtlinge sind unser Problem - sondern die Steuerflüchtlinge. //&! Die Mensch-Maschine: Leak ist Pop! Die Inszenierung übertrumpft die Inhalte: Die Panama Papers zeigen, wie sich die Bedeutung von Leaks verändert hat. Jeder liest darin, was er eh schon immer geglaubt hat. - bit.ly/25MV0AF //&! Briefkastenfirmen zerstören die Marktwirtschaft - bit.ly/1q2Vt0S //&! taz.de/!5289286/ //&! Die Panama Papers und das „Lügenpresse“-Dilemma - bit.ly/1VbfejK //&! bit.ly/1N6I1ya - kapitalistische Medienlogik //&! bit.ly/1SGNSfA - NO NYT //&! bit.ly/1PQor9j //&! cynycism wrong reaction - bit.ly/1SnKVjC
Panama  Papers  1%  Super  Rich  oligarchy  plutocracy  tax  evasion  tax  amnesty  tax  avoidance  austerity  budget  deficit  accounting  scandal  corporate  scandal  shareholder  capitalism  crony  capitalism  bank  bailout  Whistleblower  leak  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  meritocracy  meritocratic  American  Dream  money  laundering  Lügenpresse  trust  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  revolving  door  Wikileaks  investigative  journalism  journalism  offshore  banking  Schwarzgeld  Schwarze  Kassen  corruption  bribery  legal  loopholes  lobby  revolving  door  Party  Funding  campaign  finance  NYT  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  free  market  self-regulation 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
This Letting Agent Admits The Housing Shortage Is Good News For Landlords - BuzzFeed News
[ Lord Adair Turner book & Richard Koo; banks tend 2 lend 2 property & land rather than productivity/businesses. risk averse, if the family cant pay the mortgage any more, than at least u have not lost all the money! less risky! Its also partly rentier behaviour of banks. // also BOE has to be concerned about future disposable income; rent & utilities eating up 50%-75% of income thus less for consumption! ] “Landlords’ balance sheets are looking healthier than at any point since 2014, and property investors are looking at an excellent rate of return from their portfolios.” Gill warned that changes to stamp duty announced in chancellor George Osborne’s Autumn Statement and due to take effect on 1 April – people selling buy-to-let investments will pay an extra 3% – were bad news for landlords. But overall, the “consistent and developing lack of housing for across all tenures, for a spiralling population” meant the level of demand for rental properties would not reduce, he said.
property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  macroprudential  policy  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  Housing  Crisis  social  affordable  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  aggregate  demand  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  policy  folly  policy  error  consumer  debt  household  debt  budget  deficit  recovery  mortgage  market  credit  bubble  GFC  bank  bailout  BOE  zombie  banks  rentier  rent-seeking  Richard  Koo  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  zombie  consumer  industrial  policy  economic  history  Mark  Carney  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  herding  herd  hunt  for  yield  leverage  margin  trading  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  VAR  CDO  CDS  risk  aversion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  inequality  UK  generational  contract  lost  generation  constituency  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  general  election  2015  general  election  2020  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
The "Tourist" Investors Flooding Silicon Valley With Money Will Go Home One Day - BuzzFeed News
The tourist analogy comes from Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at the German financial company Allianz and former CEO of mutual fund giant Pimco. He fleshes out his theory of “tourist dollars” in his new book, The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse, describing what happens in emerging economies like Brazil and India when investors from the developed world respond to slow economies at home by seeking more profitable climates abroad. Ranjan Roy, a former emerging-market currencies trader who now runs a tech startup, wrote a Medium post this week connecting El-Erian’s “tourist” theory to the mutual fund investors that have flooded Silicon Valley with cash in recent years. The post was pretty convincing, so we decided to see if El-Erian agreed. He does. And he worries about what those tourist dollars are doing to the locals. [...] they don’t re-up [ like VC's and real Angels would do ] [...] push to stretch for return.
hunt  for  yield  distortion  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Silicon  Valley  Party  Round  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hot-money  Mutual  Fund  growth  risk  capital  Venture  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  2015  2016  2014  Unicorn  reflate  reflation  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  India  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  psychology  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Richard  Koo 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Masters in Business: Yale Professor Robert Shiller (Audio) by Bloomberg View
history has proven again, markets are not efficient long-term // psychology is disreputable in econ department. // cognitive dissonance - justifying X action by looking around ... / Efficient-market hypothesis is a hypothesis for a reason; "it's a half-truth" "sometimes market moves don't reflect market news." // irrational exuberance // book fooled by randomness // 24:00 eugene phama - markets are very efficient, prices reflect all the knowledge out there, just buy the index, don't try to beat the market. buy passive index // don't play poker with your life savings. << robert shiller // 30:00 look at politics science, sociology, psychology - influence markets, people. broader disciplines. economists disregard them. // finance is about manage risk! about being a productive society and progress, and not suffer from boom and bust cycle! + financing activities ie VC gov supported R&D // & gov being a support pillar for all and not picking winners, can't forecast the future!
free  market  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  inefficiencies  efficient-market  hypothesis  complexity  human  Wall  Street  crowd  herd  herding  speculative  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  GFC  subprime  book  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  finance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  tax  rate  R&D  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  risk  pension  fund  pension  obligation  401k  public  pension  pension  scheme  pension  marginal  propensity  to  consume  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  Greed  oligarchy  self-regulation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  negative  equity  boom  &  bust  secular  stagnation  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
MSNBC | Democratic Debate: The Young Turks Summary - YouTube
// nasty career politician - Hillary Clinton, spin and positioning ... supported by Wall Street donations and industry at large. // MSNBC | Democratic Debate: The Biggest Winner Was… - youtu.be/ckf8dNrJJtU //&! MSNBC | Democratic Debate: The Worst Line Was… - youtu.be/NS9DLDYgUkM //&! Elizabeth Warren Defends Bernie Sanders - youtu.be/GM1FDhXrSPw
presidential  election  2016  Bernie  Sanders  Hillary  Clinton  Elizabeth  Warren  Party  Funding  Super  PAC  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  Washington  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  plutocracy  1%  oligarchy  Super  Rich  election  campaign  promises  campaign  finance  vested  interest  interest  groups  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  distribution 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Das Paradox - brand eins online
Die Menschen leben in einer modernen Ökonomie, aber sie denken und handeln oft noch nach überholten Regeln. Ein Gegensatz, der Ärger schafft.
economics  paradox  paradox  of  choice  consumer  choice  status  anxiety  materialism  zombie  consumer  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  organizational  behavior  Group  behaviour  behavior  Economist  sociology  psychology 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Plastic bag charge in Scotland sees usage cut by 80% - BBC News
[ the plastic bag chage, 5p, is not enough, should be 50p and seen as penalty! thus it is the little brother of Sugar/Processed Food/junk food/fast food/and animal product taxation (extra levies) to show people every day when they show that they know this is more expensive now because this has to pay for my sick days in later life, like insurance premium for risky behavior, to fund NHS! Even seeing it as carbon tax and environmental levy because of how dirty animal products are! ]"It's now becoming second nature to shoppers to reuse their carrier bags and hopefully to think more about our impact on the environment." [...] Asda witnessing a drop of 90% and Sainsbury's 100% as it no longer offers them to shoppers. [...] The policy came into being in Scotland on 20 October last year and England introduced charging at the beginning of this month.
nanny  state  taxation  surcharge  convenience  public  awareness  public  perception  public  opinion  Policy  Makers  Group  behaviour  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  peer  pressure  peer  behavior  behaviour  consumer  choice  paradox  of  choice  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  sick  population  chronic  diseases  NHS  private  medical  insurance  insurance  premium  health  crisis  health  care  health  care  budget  public  health  health  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  revolving  door  vested  interest  interest  groups  Standard  American  Diet  Nudge  theory  Western  pattern  Whole-Food  Plant-Based  Diet  Vegan  plastic  nation  plastic  bag  Great  Pacific  Garbage  Patch  climate  change  global  warming  ecological  disaster  environmental  disaster  carbon  tax  carbon  trading  scheme  carbonfootprint  carbonemission  emissions 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Jim Grant: The Fed Turned the Stock Market Into a 'Hall of Mirrors' - YouTube
- bull market in equities not reflective of real fundamentals on the side of the consumer (aggregate demand, marginal propensity to consume). can not pick up the tab. inequality also does not help.
equity  bubble  frothy  distortion  USA  Fed  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  BRIC  BOE  ECB  excess  reserves  correction  2015  BOJ  reflate  reflation  Abenomics  hunt  for  yield  recovery  GFC  Taper  FOMO  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  fiscal  policy  austerity  western  world  developed  world  secular  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  income  gap  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  hot-money  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  property  bubble  Richard  Koo  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  fiat  currency  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Europe  UK  Japan  Germany  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  job  creation  job  security  working  poor  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Sozialer  Abstieg  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  inequality  income  mobility  Super  Rich  1%  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  Polarisation  Career  Politicians  dogma  ideology  crony  capitalism 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: In the Valley, pre-seed is a meme. In New York, it’s a necessity
// cost of entry? // unable to make it happen? // Can't you write software from anywhere? // problem, heavily diluted early on approaching A/B, traditional shops don't like the cap table of pre-seed, angels, seed, accelerator & Micro VC's already owning ~+40% ... you come to a traditional A/B shop and not one of the existing investors is actually leading the round or committed in paper do double down? // // from a financial perspective/investment/math --- in the PRIVATE MARKET thrown under the bus by NIRP, QE, hunt for yield and FOMO (looking for their female unicorn or own Zuck) everyone can run 100 burger stands with unlimited/stellar returns in their spreadsheet model (bc cost of capital being 0 or negative). Despite the deflation of price of software & hosting (marginal cost, economics of abundance), Talent got bid up heavily (+200k/y in LA by Snapchat) in certain cities (SV, NY, London) // &! Steen Jakobsen - youtu.be/fnp5ETnKylU - min 16 avg guy does not have access to credit!
Seed  Round  Party  Round  Venture  Capital  Micro  VC  barriers  to  entry  cost  of  entry  London  Start-up  Scene  ecosystem  New  York  Scene  burn  rate  runway  traction  A  Round  seedfunding  funding  Angel  Investor  dilution  cap  table  lesson  advice  liquidation  preferences  hunt  for  yield  2015  distortion  FOMO  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  Limited  Partners  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Wall  Street  asset  bubble  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  Silicon  Valley  Private  Market  Public  Market  reflate  reflation  cost  of  living  valuation  Unicorn  Decacorn  cost  of  leverage  financial  repression  financial  literacy  financial  financial  cycle  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  hubris  panic  irrational  exuberance  retail  banking  investment  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  crisis 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Easy Money Creates the Most Dangerous Bubbles - Bloomberg View
[Money has been slushing arnd in markets speculating, not investing in future & productive, added value goods. big companies are flush 2. easy credit is holding zombie corps of the last century over water. western world is persisting 2 put a banking bailout/crisis in the light of a sovereign debt crisis 2 push idealogical austerity. falling way being, never be able 2 catch up with productivity, output gap, STEM, research, future of work, smart grid & infrastructure, retooling their economy 21st century style.] // "speculation in property markets, amplified by mortgage financing, as a persistent central factor driving economic cycles." [...] the worst bubbles -- those that inflict the most economic pain -- tend to involve not just speculation, but a surge in easy lending and increasing leverage. [...] economic downturns following credit bubbles were generally worse and lasted longer. [...] danger of leverage cycle. // [ easy credit & debt fuelled recovery of assets, not fundamentals ]
book  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  economic  history  zombie  banks  Mark  Blyth  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  business  confidence  business  investment  economic  damage  2015  faultlines  structural  imbalance  structural  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  education  policy  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  recovery  western  world  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Smart  Grid  Software  Is  Eating  The  GFC  Career  Politicians  status  quo  social  contract  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  banking  crisis  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  financial  market  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Impediments  distortion  economic  model  economic  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  financial  incentive  financial  repression  financial  literacy  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Fed  monetary  stimulus  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  BIS  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  PBOC  China  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  academia  academics  economic-thought  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  hubris  panic  consumer  confidence  confidence  trust  banking  investment  banking  distr 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Forget China - Oil Price Is Main Driver Of Market Turmoil | Zero Hedge
For the moment we are expecting oil producers to start to minimize their loses by producing even more oil. The oil crisis has just begun. // // &! DeMark compares China to the start of the Great Depression in the US, and when applying the 38.2 Fib retracement levels which have been breached, now expects even more pain for Chinese stocks - bit.ly/1NJdISb // // &! THINGS WERE TOO FAR AWAY FROM REALITY - Many indicators confirm that last week was remarkable and historic. Record after record was set, including the largest daily move, the biggest intra-day reversal and the most harrowing intra-day air pocket. - bv.ms/1O45W2i - legitimate questions about the robustness of the global economy [ contagion & overshoot - hubris and panic alike, good news gets washed down w bad news, extreme volatility still break markets, contagion still real & ppl are leveraged again (were complacent, institutional! investors!) ] market craziness. [ irrational exuberance that were equities ]. &! bv.ms/1UnLeMV
Oil  price  energy  price  OPEC  2015  China  commodities  global  trade  global  economy  western  world  developed  world  BRIC  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  PBOC  economic  slowdown  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  Fed  BOE  BOJ  ECB  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  economic  history  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  contagion  VIX  volatility  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  margin  trading  deleveraging  Greed  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  hubris  panic  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  irrational  exuberance  economic  growth  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  zombie  banks  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  recovery  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  economic  damage 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan's economy shrinks by 0.4% in a blow for 'Abenomics' growth plan | World news | The Guardian
the country’s main Nikkei stock market index was up strongly by 0.6% as investors expected the government to unleash more monetary stimulus. “Should growth remain sluggish for another quarter and inflation expectations start to fall, the odds of additional monetary easing would increase substantially,” analysts at DBS said in a commentary. Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of Japan’s GDP, fell 0.8%, as exports dropped 4.4%. “The sharp plunge from the previous quarter’s surprise growth was partly due to disappointing demand for Japanese products in the US, Chinese and other resource-exporting markets,” SMBC Nikko Securities said in a commentary. “Sluggish wage growth and bad weather drove down consumption at home,” it added. // no demand led recovery. debt fuelled recovery! little is fixed thus nothing (kogs) fits and runs by itself as one would expect. // [...] convincing people to splash out on consumer goods has been a struggle
equity  bubble  BOJ  Abenomics  China  2015  western  world  developed  world  Taper  QE  NIRP  ZIRP  economic  history  global  economy  global  trade  Europe  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Yen  Richard  Koo  Oil  price  OPEC  energy  price  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  GFC  trickle-down  economics  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  capitalism  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  bank  bailout  bailout  microeconomic  policy  microeconomics  behavioral  finance  deleveraging  debt  servitude  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Psychology  sociology  savings  rate  uncertainty  insecurity 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Financial Advisor Nick Murray: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View | Free Listening on SoundCloud
don't chase alpha. focus on the outcome, it's investor behaviour - that reflects on performance. leave portfolio alone ... 10 year. change less. turnover correlates negatively with return. just sit there. // volatility is NOT risk. risk is the total loss of investment. -10% is a risk, if you sell it at -10%. // >> u can never get truth from media, u can only get news. << example, they never talk about the way inflation is not factored in into retirement planning. they talk about principle and return %. but what inflation takes away from that (purchasing power). // annuities (fixed or variable). fixed income (annuities) is cancer. for retirement planning. it is the planned liquidation on ur purchasing power. because u have 2 subtract inflation. // he prefers all equities for long-term retirement planning. more than 5 year horizon. not emergency fund. // may err on safety; have emergency fund u can withdraw fund for expenses. // &! bv.ms/1NXQcOq &! bit.ly/1NEX1r1 &! bit.ly/1LB93yz
financial  literacy  personal  finance  investment  management  personal  financial  planning  Portfolio  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  financial  market  emotion  Greed  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  book  retirement  pension  scheme  public  pension  pension  obligation  pension  pension  fund  retirement  planning 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Greenspan: Be Afraid of Pending Bubble in Bond Market - Bloomberg Business
what is the new normal interest rate? // 7min long bloom.bg/1gteMeO - UK and USA productivity (levels at rate of zero growth) and output gap, capital investment inadequate - into unproductive investment bc of hunt for yield, bc of outlook of secular stagnation for western world and structural impediments, imbalances, and faultlines, and also because of fiscal and political uncertainty, and demographic bubble and ageing population in western world. future customers/consumers are not in western world, they are to be found right now in the developing world and frontier markets. // we are currently in an environment where we don't know what the new normal interest rate is, because of distortions and incomplete information:
Taber  bond  bubble  2015  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  recovery  globalisation  globalization  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  competition  competitive  competitiveness  borderless  flat  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  western  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  technological  progress  creative  destruction  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  STEM  developed  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  economic  history  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  Group  behaviour  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  financial  incentive  incentive  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  incomplete  information  complexity  OPEC  Europe 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
BaFin: Lebensversicherer kämpfen mit Kapitalregeln - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Lebensversicherungen leiden unter den niedrigen Zinsen in der Eurozone. Deshalb fällt es vielen Konzernen laut Finanzaufsicht BaFin schwer, ihre Kapitalanlagen an die neuen Regeln anzupassen - es gebe noch einige "Wackelkandidaten".
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  behavioral  finance  group  behavior  behavioral  economics  Taper  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  BOJ  ECB  liquidity  trap  economic  history 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Sorry to burst your bubble | The Economist
bit.ly/1IfX0s9 // "According to two new papers, the crucial variable that separates relatively harmless frenzies from disastrous ones is debt." // see China Stock Market leverage pop mid 2015 - with its huge rise in margin debt trading ... money which was flowing out of the property market into the Stock Market // // &! so if it is about debt - UK mortgage market & consumer/private debt of all kind (loans and credit card debt) does qualify as they took up what was cut by austerity. Plus the Supply Demand distortion, with new builds/project at a decades lowest. // Question for China. The China problem. Can they make their system sustainable before it will crush everyone. // The most obvious is China. But the next one will be different & greater than all came before. Period. Still, UK had not a housing bubble collapse on its own making. Only through endogenous circumstances. UK recession as UK economy runs mostly on consumer sector & debt) bit.ly/1OpClSO bit.ly/1wQITjb bit.ly/1SycLtY
leverage  debtoverhang  equity  bubble  regulation  self-regulation  regulators  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  household  debt  private  debt  economic  history  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  Greenspan-Put  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  margin  trading  margin  debt  asset  liquidity  economic  damage  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  mortgage  market  UK  credit  card  housing  market  property  bubble  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  sustainability  sustainable  NPL  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  economic  model  economic  irrational  exuberance  macroeconomic  policy  economic  growth  debt  monetisation  reflation  debt  monetization  consumerist  consumerism  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  financial  financial  crisis  GFC  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  baddebt  non-performing  loan 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The Coming Crash & The Recession That Never Ended - Part 1 - YouTube
Part 2 youtu.be/SpJ4L2QGNI4 [ min 2:00 post WW2 german debt jubilee - American & Britain needed Germany as bulwark against USSR! thus Germany had leverage because it was systemic. Greece is not systemic, nor needed. Thus they openly talk, relaxed, abt Grexit. Grexit was systemic risk in the first ~3 years post GFC, because of underfunded German, Frensh and Belgian zombie banks. 6:00 PIGS generation will be disillusioned about claims of European Union unity! 7:30 austerity ] // &! Part 3 - youtu.be/FWulzJy2oXc Bernie Sanders on inequality &! social mobility, skills gap, ... make-up of USA economy is a impediment to future growth (output gap, no more 3% annually) & also part-cause of inequality ... &! Part 4 youtu.be/8wzDwU1pzpY - China may tumble bc they dont have the internal & global demand for the infrasturcture/economy they have build (debtoverhang, debt servitude) &or social uprising &! USA overreach // Forget QE, Wall Street’s new drug is the stock buyback - on.mktw.net/1HDtdUR
Richard  Wolff  Taper  equity  bubble  China  irrational  exuberance  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  stock  buyback  fundamentals  economic  growth  recovery  UK  USA  balance  sheet  recession  Europe  Richard  Koo  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  labour  market  participation  rate  underemployed  structural  unemployment  structural  imbalance  Impediments  unemployment  youth  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  Gini  coefficient  income  growth  disposable  income  low  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  employment  self-employment  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  working  poor  social  mobility  income  mobility  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  part-time  Contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  uncertainty  Niedriglohnsektor  minimum  wage  Niedriglohn  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  deleveraging  debtoverhang  savings  rate  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  skills  gap  education  policy  vocational  education  economic  history  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  discretionary  spending  dogma  ideology  austerity  neoliberal  neoliberalism  democracy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  debt  monetisation  debt  stagnation  inequality  history  debt  debt  debt  m 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Homejoy Is Shutting Down At The End Of The Month | TechCrunch
tcrn.ch/1CO0OOU / 7:10 $VC subsidized early business. Could not get 2 cash flow even. Lets not speak of cash flow positive. // If u dont have a cash flow even/positive business, u are dependent on $VC 2 keeping it afloat. If u dont have massive growth, VCs like 2 see & not hitting ur milestones & ur still not able 2 turn the business arnd towards cash flow even. Ur dead in the pan. AND 4 digital only consumer & entertainment products, scale is important +10m users. Because then only advertisers might ... might consider placing an add/natively if the conversion & engagement metrics are attractive. Advertisers & brands cant spread resources thin across 1000 apps. Its overhead & waste in ops. That is why BIG like TV (still), Daily Paper/Magazine (still) and FB (owning +70% of Social) are the MAIN HUBS. >> THUS [Freemium] the Free On Phone Version 4 closetphile (wont cost u much except dev) & the Customer paying 4 Cloud Convenience,Security, more features (ie analytics). &! bit.ly/1CSygUA
Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  on-demand  convenience  scale  economies  of  scale  Venture  Capital  burn  rate  runway  business  model  closetphile  wardrobemalfunction  freemium  Homejoy  added  value  value  creation  Perception  Silicon  Valley  Unicorn  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Appification  mobile  homescreen  mobile  first  mobile  phone  irrational  exuberance  Rocket  Internet  Uber  Lyft  customer  acquisition  customer  acquisition  cost  customer  retention  customer  lifetime  value  SAAS  Postmates  Service  Sector  Jobs  1099  Economy  uncertainty  self-employment  Niedriglohnsektor  Niedriglohn  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  commodity  business  commoditization  price  sensitive  price  insensitive  price  sensitivity  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  status  symbol  status  anxiety  socioeconomic  status  social  status  craigslist  sustainable  sustainability  metrics  KPI  Circa  Share  Economy  marketshare  unit  economics 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube
// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?
BIS  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  bond  bubble  Student  Loan  debt  debt  regulation  oversight  governance  BOE  simplicity  incomplete  information  academia  academics  economist  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  economic  history  systemicrisk  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  financial  market  sustainable  sustainability  mortgage  market  UK  USA  China  speculative  speculation  contagion  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  credit  boom  financial  cycle  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  political  economy  political  theory  centralbanks  economic  damage  economic  model  Richard  Koo  animal  spirit  austerity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  robertshiller  Robert  Shiller  ideology  dogma  sovereign  debt  crisis  populism  corporate  state  manufactured  consent  Lügenpresse  BOJ  Fed  currency  war  currency  debasement  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  Japan  hunt  for  yield  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
China's stockmarket crash: A red flag | The Economist
via bit.ly/1HgJT6x // "Yet China’s intervention has screamed of panic. [...] If economic stability is not in peril, why then the panic? The most compelling explanation is politics. The government has staked much credibility and prestige on the stockmarket. When the going was still good, the official press was chock-a-block with articles about how the rally reflected the economic reforms that Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, was set to push. Li Keqiang, the premier, said repeatedly that he wanted equity markets to provide a bigger share of corporate financing—comments, from punters' perspective, not unlike waving a red cape in front of a bull. The sudden end to the rally is the first major dent in the public standing of the Xi-Li team. The botched attempts to stabilise the market only make them look weaker, giving succour to their critics." &! bbc.in/1eFbi8h - 1929 margin trading (borrowing to buy shares) & leverage products &! bloom.bg/1RjIgg9
China  equity  bubble  2015  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  property  bubble  Middle  Class  Politics  public  perception  economic  model  economic  damage  economic  history  Structural  Impediments  economic  growth  group  behavior  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  asset  bubble  margin  trading  leverage  margin  debt 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
James Rickards - The Death of Money - 04-30-15 - YouTube
distribution of risk (bell curve, wrong) & talebs black swan! / 'dismal science alone doesn't do the world and people justice.' / IMF is the central bank of the world (funded, special drawing right - SDR; out of thin air - backed by national central banks as reference (basket) but not backed by anything. printed money.) / Hungary's crisis - people borrowing in Swiss Franc ... SDR marry go round paying someone off with the help of IMF ... / IMF is transparent non-transparent. Try reading it. Need to be an expert. / AIIB able to issue bonds and got billions in capital - China/Asia Development Bank. Everybody joined because they want those contracts for their local/national companies ... except USA. Asia (China led) World Bank equivalent. - bit.ly/1Mxz1Dp &! bit.ly/1x04SZv / China wants to be in IMF & be part of basket of SDR / China may back its currency with Gold eventually once theyve got enough & leverage then its position. / US wants Yuan to be pegged to $ / m44 debt sustainability
economic  model  book  economic  history  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  academia  academics  science  sociology  psychology  discounted  risk  risk  discount  complexity  distributed  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  dogma  ideology  centralbanks  Fed  technocrat  IMF  World  Bank  Troika  bailout  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  austerity  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  currency  war  currency-war  currency  debasement  SDR  Special  Drawing  Right  AIIB  inflation  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  systemicrisk  counterpartyrisk  leverage  zombie  banks  Wall  Street  financial  repression  financial  literacy 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The Root of All Good - YouTube
2/3rds of loans provided on Funding Circle and Lending Club come from Institutional Money Managers // mortgages are biggest part of private debt as a whole.
book  GFC  finance  banking  investment  banking  Lending  Club  Funding  Circle  Debt  Super  Cycle  mortgage  market  mortgage  zombie  consumer 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Marc Andreessen on innovation and diversity | Fortune - YouTube
Public Market became cautious '14/'15: oil price slump + China + Russia + secular stagnation of the west in general (productivity gap & output gap), Abenomics, negative bond yields for gov debt and nearly 0 for corporate AAA debt, deflationary pressures in UK (0% inflation last 2 quarters), Europe (steady decline of M3 & issuance of new debt), & USA (with deflationary pressures as well). macroeconomic indicators do signal caution, because despite all the efforts (throwing the bathtub at the problem; ECB installing negative yield 4 overnight bank deposits with them) from central banks (NIRP, QE, POMO & other policies), the economic engine of the world & the west is still not going into 3rd or higher. // & Andreesen's argument, against, that tech is in bubblish territory, is, that in comparison with '99/'00 & the Public Markets current caution; (re-)investment (GOOG 11bn '14) & share buybacks (IBM, MSFT) schemes & dividends payout dwarf VC & growth rounds in tech by several magnitudes.
2015  IPO  M&A  Wall  Street  shareholder  shareholder  value  Silicon  Valley  bubbles  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  recovery  GFC  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  Fed  Public  Market  Private  Market  hunt  for  yield  single-class  share  structure  Marc  Andreessen  Venture  Capital  Unicorn  economic  history  macroeconomics  debt  bubble  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  distortion  sovereign  debt  crisis  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  Super  Cycle  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Gillmor Gang: Money for Nothing - Gillmor Gang | TechCrunch TV
min 42 // A Round is now a "post-traction" investment aka proven product & business model. A Round is an investment to scale it up, put it up a bunch of gears. // Keith Teare from chat.center (tcrn.ch/1IWFQ1X) people now doing pre-seed, seed, seed prime & bridge funding via existing investors; figuring out Product/Market fit, traction, funnel, etc. Now more than ever a hits driven business. // see also tcrn.ch/1c54UpN // Complexity of phenomenon - symptoms, causes and tangents; biases, selection bias, pattern matching, bidding up hot deals in the private market where the highest bidder will get the deal - irrationality of accepting those valuations and the founders Unicorn-status need, hunt for yield, trendy - the future, when doing 'hard things' becomes fashionable (ie Reality TV, TV Series & a shallow Channel 4's How To Be A Young Billionaire) then beware, negative yields for secure investments (bonds and corp debt), perceived 'conservative' value vs private bid up bubble potential.
Seed  Round  A  Round  traction  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  Silicon  Valley  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  behavioral  finance  bond  bubble  bubbles  equity  bubble  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  complexity  growth  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  pattern  matching  selection  bias  confirmation  bias  bias  Unicorn  Wall  Street  Private  Mutual  Fund  Hedge  Fund  Venture  Capital  savings  glut  productive  investment  business  model  Snapchat  WhatsApp  Instagram  Slack  Uber  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Share  Economy  Services  Industry  Niedriglohnsektor  incomplete  information  economic  history  marginal  cost  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  faultlines  Product/Market  Fit  value  creation  1000  True  Fans  Core  Product  Proposition  differentiate  differentiation 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Would you rather be a real millionaire or a paper billionaire? The psychology of unicorns and the toll on Q1 returns | PandoDaily
And yet total cash going to venture backed companies was a whopping $17.7 billion– up over the $12.6 billion raised in the same period last year. But here’s the thing: Only $11.3 billion of that came from venture firms, throwing into question whether we should even still keep using the adjective “venture-backed” to describe the category. The disparity shows just how much more money is coming from non-VCs like hedge funds, private equity, mutual funds, and sovereign wealth funds, who have watched the private valuation growth of Facebook and the rest of the deca-corns and are desperately trying to get a stake in private companies before they IPO. [...] Things have gotten strange for VCs — and in turn, entrepreneurs — and the climate doesn’t seem to be improving
Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  growth  round  Venture  Capital  Silicon  Valley  Unicorn  hunt  for  yield  Sovereign  Wealth  Fund  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bubble  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Super  Cycle  savings  glut  liquidity  trap  productive  investment  speculative  bubbles  Wall  Street  incomplete  information  market  confirmation  bias  pattern  matching  pattern  recognition  selection  bias  bias  behavioral  finance 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
A society without cash is a society in trouble - Telegraph
[not taking cash out of your purse, different than sliding a plastic card through.] A society without cash is a society in trouble The trouble with contactless payments is they make it all too easy to forget the true value of things, worries Bryony Gordon
credit  card  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  psychology  instant  gratification  loss  loss  aversion  sunk  cost  fallacy  deferred  gratification  credit  bubble  creditcrisis  creditcard  consumer  debt  zombie  consumer 
february 2015 by asterisk2a
Jon Stewart on Alibaba 'The communists have beaten us at capitalism' $baba - YouTube
risk carried by shareholders. shady, intransparent, no sheriff for a town that does not exist. ... sounds like something big to hit the fan, maybe, eventually. possible. black swan event?
Alibaba  IPO  oversight  regulators  regulation  China  Silicon  Valley  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  capitalism  Patriarchy  Jack  Ma  corporatism  conglomerate  blackswan  risk  taking  behavioral  finance  Group  behaviour  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  2014 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
David Blanchflower: Do not be fooled – growth and living standards under the Coalition have still been abysmal - David Blanchflower - Business Comment - The Independent
Over the entire six-year period [ 2009 - 2013] real earnings in the UK fell by 6.5 per cent, and by 5.9 per cent between 2010 and 2012, and only Greece (minus 23 per cent) was lower. Real earnings growth was positive over this entire period in France (+5 per cent); Germany (+4 per cent); Japan (+1 per cent) and the US (+1 per cent).
greatrecession  UK  GFC  output  gap  productivity  stagflation  secular  stagnation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  monetary  transmission  mechanism  property  bubble  indusrty  London  finance  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  lost  decade  lost  generation  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  No  Representation  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  living  standard  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  class  warfare  Toff  private  education  OECD  BOE  unconventional  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  education  policy  Public  economies  of  agglomeration  economic  history  Mark  Carney 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Rethinking Economic Theory: The Evolutionary Roots Of Irrationality : 13.7: Cosmos And Culture : NPR
Research into behavioral economics has shown, for example, that our assessment of what something is worth to us can be directly, and predictably, influenced. This is the illusion of the free lunch, something humans are known to fall for even when economic theory would clearly suggest we select a more valuable option at a small cost. Ariely also beautifully elucidates how we sometimes operate on social norms, while other times we fall into market norms. The difference is in whether there is a price attached to something.
behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  economics  social  science  psychology  book  Dan  Ariely  social  norms  social  society 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - £230m obesity and diabetes drugs cost 'harms NHS'
financial incentives needed - nudge to better living. nanny state vs long-term view. people have no sense of complexity, unintended consequences, unkown unkowns, ... need to act now. it's the same with global warming / carbonfootprint / carbon emissions.
obesity  epidemic  obesity  NHS  public  health  policy  public  health  chronic  diseases  diabetes  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Vegan  omnivore  Cardiovascular  disease  heart  disease  vascular  disease  liver  disease  coronary  artery  disease  anti-inflammatory  diet  chronic  low-grade  inflammation  Nudge  theory  financial  incentive  incentive  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  tobacco  binge  drinking  alcohol  abuse 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
RSA Animate - Drive: The surprising truth about what motivates us - YouTube
This lively RSA Animate, adapted from Dan Pink's talk at the RSA, illustrates the hidden truths behind what really motivates us at home and in the workplace.

- reward schemes for cognitive tasks do not work.
- mechanical task, reward schemes for performance do work

Thus,
>> pay people enough, to take the issue of money off the table and people think about the work.
Then 3 Factors determine performance and satisfaction:
- autonomy (self-direction), mastery (of skill), purpose (contribution to something that matters and or is greater than you).
management  workforce  work  life  balance  self-improvement  corporate  culture  corporate  governance  lifehacker  lifehacks  lifelesson  purpose  mastery  autonomy  autono  sociology  incentive  Behavior  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  Fed  cognitive  funtion  psychology  motivation 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
Euro-Krise: Warum die Rettung der spanischen Banken gescheitert ist - SPIEGEL ONLINE
The crisis around Europe show, that market is, can become, a herd phenomenon. Where one problem or effect is increased by financial media concentration and analysis - and the market is piling in.

Example, Spain's 10yr is around 7%. But Belgium has very similar problems and even higher Debt/GDP as Spain, but Belgium's rates increases are negligible if one just listened to the media. And forgets about the facts.

The same is about Moody's warning about Core Risks, and potential downgrades. Media and Market and Major in-house analysis (from banks, hedge fonds and investment banks) are yet shy about adding the numbers of potential risks and liabilities as well as already existing liabilities through existing bailout agreements. Well ... till it isn't any more according to the majority of market participants. And then for Germany, yields will rise and will see a potential over reaction first.

The Crowd has certain psychological characteristics. Period. Proven above.
behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  PIIGS  ratingagencies  market-failure  market-mechanism  market  dynamics  psychology  bankrun  financialmarket  equilibrium  economic-thought  economic  model  economic  history  economic  multiple  equilibria  Chaos  theory 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Notes for currency wars: The trilemma of international finance | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
The fundamental trilemma of international finance maintains that a country cannot simultaneously peg an exchange rate, maintain an independent monetary policy, and permit free cross-border financial flows (Feenstra and Taylor 2008). At best, only two of the three are feasible.
macroeconomics  economics  international  finance  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  PBoC  CHF  currency-war  currency  debasement  SNB  Switzerland  foreignexchange 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
A Sign Of The Hiring-pocalypse | TechCrunch
An entrepreneur-turned-venture investor told me over the weekend: Booms are the worst time to build a company.

Only capital is cheap. Everything else is expensive — talent most of all.

---

Fed's ZIRP and QE (and Bailout bonanza, moralhazard) - did fuel VC/Seedfund pockets - overthrowing capped supply (investments in companies).
ZIRP and QE do increase the demand for alternative investments. And skews investors risk sentiment. They take on more risk in hope for the next big thing that brings them that more ROI that the market can not produce due to World Wide QE, ZIRP, currency debasement, Sovereign Debt Crisis.
monetarism  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  Fed  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  QE  supply-demand  economics  unintended  consequences  ycombinator  instagram  Zynga  Google  Facebook  Technology  Boom  bubble  entrepeneurship  venturecapital  vc  ZIRP  2012 
april 2012 by asterisk2a
Explaining America's macro puzzles: The worst of all worlds | The Economist
[Americas economy] it is starting to look more like some left arms have gone missing.

What if we have next to the out-put gap also a slowdown in potential growth - that has to be factored in, due to forces of Globalization.

The path of potential output commonly downshifts after crises, as all economic participants are humans and have emotions and psychological, economic behavior - these (very likely change) due to recent trauma. Resulting in risk aversion.

Leading to the following conclusion; "I still find the demand-side explanations for the depressed state of the economy more convincing ..."
microeconomics  macroeconomics  economic-thought  psychology  Behavior  behavioral  finance  output-gap  globalisation  globalization  productivity  unemployment  greatrecession  GFC  2012  economy  economics  USA 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Penetrating Insights On Why The Market Feels Like A Colonoscopy | ZeroHedge
In a widely quoted experiment by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman (with others, published in 2003) over 600 subjects undergoing colonoscopies were given different versions of the same procedure. One set got essentially a short version, where the pain of the process peaked out near the end of the exam. The other group got a longer version, with the last few moments in relatively little discomfort. The second group reported much less pain when asked about the experience than the first.

Kahneman’s colonoscopy is a tailor made, if coarse, analogy to the ongoing sovereign debt woes in Europe. ...

The bottom line is that pain, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder.
financialmarkets  financialcrisis  richardkoo  economic-thought  economics  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  GFC  UK  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  pain  psychology  behavioral  finance 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Global Finance’s Supply-Chain Revolution - Andrew Sheng - Project Syndicate
In today’s financial architecture, as with other supply chains, interdependent networks tend to concentrate in powerful hubs. For example, just two financial centers, London and New York, dominate international finance, and only 22 players conduct 90% of all global foreign-exchange trading. Such concentration is very efficient, but it also contributes to greater systemic risks, because, if the leading hubs fail, the whole system can collapse.

Open feedback mechanisms ensure a supply chain’s ability to respond to a changing environment, but, in the case of financial supply chains, feedback mechanisms can amplify shocks until the whole system blows up. The Lehman Brothers collapse triggered just such an explosion, with the financial system saved only by government bailouts.

Today, the financial sector needs innovation of a higher order, involving business models, strategy, and management approaches that restore trust in finance.
confidence  trust  reform  regulation  volatility  history  change  leverage  lehmanbrothers  GFC  supply-chain  London  wallstreet  finance 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Secret Fed Loans Helped Banks Net $13 Billion - Bloomberg
A fresh narrative of the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 emerges from 29,000 pages of Fed documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act and central bank records of more than 21,000 transactions. While Fed officials say that almost all of the loans were repaid and there have been no losses, details suggest taxpayers paid a price beyond dollars as the secret funding helped preserve a broken status quo and enabled the biggest banks to grow even bigger.

$7.77 Trillion
The amount of money the central bank parceled out was surprising even to Gary H. Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 1985 to 2009, who says he “wasn’t aware of the magnitude.” It dwarfed the Treasury Department’s better-known $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Add up guarantees and lending limits, and the Fed had committed $7.77 trillion as of March 2009 to rescuing the financial system, more than half the value of everything produced in the U.S. that year.
Fed  bailout  finance  banks  bank  2008  GFC  meltdown  TARP  disclosure  transparency  trust  TAF  TermAuctionFacility  discountwindow  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  history  Dodd-Frank  moralhazard  Glass-Steagall  toobigtofail  systemicrisk 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Wall Street Unoccupied With 200,000 Job Cuts - Bloomberg
Banks, insurers and asset managers in Western Europe have been hardest hit, announcing about 105,000 dismissals this year, 66 percent more than the region’s losses in 2008 at the depths of the financial crisis, Bloomberg data show. The 50,000 job cuts in North America this year are more than twice last year’s and fewer than the 175,000 in 2008.

“These are by far my darkest days,” said Scott Schubert, 49, who was dismissed in late 2008 as a mergers-and-acquisitions banker at Jefferies, a New York-based securities firm, and has been unemployed since. “It’s harder and harder to look for a job and feel that there’s nothing there.”

“Because there are fewer jobs, people are unhappy about being stuck,” Brener said. “They don’t have options about moving, and there is a sense of feeling trapped.”

Wall Street won’t regain its lost jobs “until about 2023,” Marisa Di Natale, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in an e-mail.
finance  wallstreet  unemployment  2011 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Italy Obsessed by ‘Lo Spread’ as Yields Surge - Bloomberg
Spread Watching
In downtown Milan, adjacent to the city’s landmark Il Duomo cathedral, a group of Italians gather frequently to gaze at market prices on a giant TV screen displaying Bloomberg data.
“What’s the spread? It’s the difference that a country pays on interest rates compared with another,” said a 76-year- old retiree who would only identify himself as Peppino. “How can we pay 6 percent interest rates in Italy and Germany 2 percent?” Peppino said. “It shows that Italy is sick. When a country is strong, the spread falls.”
Italy  society  finance  sovereign  debt  crisis  2011  media 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Once Again, Its Sweden (Sweden!) Showing the Way | The Big Picture
The Japanese approach — Save the Banks! — is a result of their Keiretsu, and is the model embraced first by the Bush White House, and the Federal Reserve, than by Congress, and lastly by the Obama White House. I have argued this approach is in large part why the post-crisis economy has been so moribund, with sub-par GDP and Employment the rule.

This policy-making error is based on a refusal to take the loss. Indeed, Capitalism recognizes that failure is normal, and denying that, rejecting a fundamental premise of market based economies equals embracing socialized losses caused by the reckless. The approach of Socialism for bankers, Capitalism for everyone else is a philosophy that Keynes, Hayek and Friedman would all heartily reject en masse.

We are presented with a stark simple choice when confronted with a financial collapse. We can save the system or we can save individual banks. Astonishingly, we keep choosing wrongly . . .
japan  sweden  lostdecade  usa  europe  lesson  history  monetary  policy  error  folly  mistake  fiscal  politics  governance  economics  austerity  capitalism  socialism  banking  finance  toobigtofail  bailout 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Credit-Default Swap Risk Bomb Is Wired to Explode: Mark Buchanan - Bloomberg
The European nations are linked in a network of debts, as Bill Marsh recently illustrated in the New York Times with a beautiful piece of graphic art. Greece and Italy are prominent; Ireland, Portugal and Spain lurk ominously nearby. France and Germany seem exposed, too, as does the U.S.
The image is like a complex wiring diagram for a ticking debt bomb. Yet what it shows may be less important than what it leaves out: a largely invisible network of ties among institutions around the world, which could ultimately cause global financial chaos.
This hidden network has been created by institutions that buy and sell unregulated credit-default swaps. These are essentially insurance contracts on bonds; in the event of a default on the bond, the seller of the swap promises to pay the buyer the bond’s value.

The researchers showed that too much risk sharing can make it easy for distress to spread like a virus.
CDS  Europe  bomb  debt  bubble  2011  OTC  sovereign  crisis  unknown  toobigtofail  2008  AIG  risk  system  systemicrisk  problems  exposure  Greece  PIIGS  tippingpoint  history  lesson  economics  Financalmeltdown  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  financialmarket  financialmarkets  financialcrisis  finance 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Munchau On How The Greek Rollover "Deal" Is A Toxic CDO | zero hedge
"This structure is still not quite so complex as some of the more elaborate CDOs we have encountered in the global financial crisis. If you take some time to work through the arrows and boxes, you see relatively quickly that this complex structure is not a private sector participation at all. Rather it is a private sector bail-out...

The punchline is not surprising, but it is funny:
The rollover agreement represents, from an economic point of view, nothing but a collateralised bond. It subordinates all other bondholders. The rating agencies would normally not hesitate to attach a default rating to Greek government debt.
So the solution is to create a complex structure, and claim that it is technically not a collateralised bond, but something that defies definition.
transparency  financial  finance  financialcrisis  financialmarket  ratingagencies  default  greece  PIIGS  EFSF  ESM  bailout  2011  germany  ECB  angelamerkel  ponzischeme  CDO  SIV  scam  sovereign  debt  crisis 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Greece Has Options to Fix Debt Woes, but All Lead to Misery - NYTimes.com
extending the maturity of Greece’s debt appears to be the most likely and politically palatable. The European Union can claim that it is still paying Greece’s obligations in full while also showing to Germany and other Northern European nations that there is pain for the bondholders.
If these debt maturities are extended a few years, the European Union would not have to cover the looming private financing gap Greece faces. In such a case, the accountants may still allow European banks that hold billions in Greek debt to still value it at 100 cents on the dollar, allowing them to avoid their own solvency issues and allow time to build up reserves. The European Central Bank can thus avoid haircuts or defaults that might affect the other troubled European countries or European banks.

 And the extension is likely to last for decades to allow the debt’s value to be eaten away by inflation.
Greece  default  restructuring  accounting  finance  banking  2011 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
World on course for next crisis, warns Gordon Brown - Telegraph
Mr Brown said the "resolve" to act seen immediately after the crisis has been replaced by indecision and vested interest. He urged politicians at the next G20 summit, which takes place in Cannes in November, to take control of a globalised financial system which is still "perilously" unregulated.

They fear "with good cause" that if Greece has to restructure its debt - effectively default - it could unravel a chain of trades based on the problematic debt and lay bare the interconnectedness of institutions around the world, said Stephen Lewis, an analyst at Monument Securities.
gordonbrown  2011  PIIGS  default  restructuring  greece  banking  EMU  lehmanbrothers  finance  financialcrisis  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  toobigtofail 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Deutsche Bank Maneuvers Around New Capital Rules - WSJ.com
Hoping to sidestep new financial regulations that could have forced it to raise billions in new capital, Deutsche Bank AG is planning to restructure its U.S. operations, which would allow it to operate with a thinner capital cushion than the new rules envisioned.
Dodd-Frank  basel3  deutschebank  2011  fraud  banking  finance  capital 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
European bail-outs: Pay pals | The Economist
Who's paying for the euro-area bail-out?
PORTUGAL’S bail-out means another stage in Europe’s debt crisis and another call on non-European coffers. The total €865 billion ($1.2 trillion) pot available for euro-area rescues looks enormous, more than enough to cope with Greece, Ireland and Portugal’s anticipated needs besides. Almost half of that comes from the European Financial Stability Facility, a €440 billion euro-zone fund whose major contributors are Germany, France and Italy. But the EFSF’s effective lending capacity is only €250 billion, because only six of its 17 members have a AAA credit rating. European leaders have pledged to bring the fund’s actual firepower up to €440 billion by the summer but in the meantime the IMF has more cash on hand, at €280 billion. If all that money were used (a very big if), America would end up lending indebted euro-zone nations €50 billion.
EFSF  IMF  PIIGS  bailout  2011  details  moralhazard  global  finance  banking 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
The Problems With Derivatives Clearing - NYTimes.com
The International Monetary Fund is out with a new paper on derivatives after the storm, and it is a strangely academic exercise for an institution that one would hope would be a bit practical. In short, the paper argues that the focus in the Dodd-Frank Act on central clearing of derivatives is not the best solution and that central clearing parties are apt to become “too big to fail.”

In particular, the article in question worries that the move to central clearing will reduce big financial institutions’ ability to “net” their gross exposure to a given counterparty. This is pretty typical among banking types, where netting is seen as a universal good. The costs of netting are rarely discussed.
Dodd-Frank  2011  IMF  regulation  reform  derivatives  politics  lobby  lobbyist  Lobbying  finance 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
YouTube - Barofsky Says U.S. `Hopelessly Naive' on Bank Bailouts
TARP Inspector - Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, talks about the performance of and outlook for TARP.- Banks got w TARP major advantage - home owners and business owners and unemployed either let down or in the case of the latter scrutinized- Moral Hazard - TARP was a present from Hank and Ben; had no to very little strings attached in order to guide banking
barofsky  TARP  henrypaulson  benbernanke  2011  fraud  banking  transparency  presidency  barackobama  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  finance  financialcrisis  2008  meltdown  abuse  policy 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
Japan Crisis Isn't Yet Grasped by the Markets - NYTimes.com
Such “what if” scripts are the stuff of modern Wall Street. Everyone runs them. Entire schools of financial analysis are devoted to examining historical market patterns in the belief that those patterns can predict the future.
Such analysis, of course, depends on — and perhaps even encourages — our belief that tomorrow will be much like today. And all that despite the fine-print caveat on your 401(k) statement that reads, “Past performance is no guarantee of future success.”

 we rely on history for guidance - and that is a fallacy 

Big economic questions remain unanswered.
wallstreet  japan  2011  earthquake  nuclear  fallout  model  financial  performance  hypocrisy  finance  investment  blackswan  history  economics  unintended  consequences 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
EU assembly backs bank transaction tax | City A.M.
A tax that would cover transactions such as derivatives would reduce speculation and public deficits, parliament's resolution said.An 0.05 per cent tax would bring in nearly €200bn in the EU, rising to €650bn at the global level.
bank  regulation  tax  Europe  derivatives  reform  finance  2011  transactiontax 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
Erfolgreiche Spekulation: Hedgefonds scheffeln mehr Geld als Großbanken - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Mittlerweile weichen auch die Großbanken selbst auf den Hedgefonds-Sektor aus: So will Morgan Stanley den Eigenhandel ab 2012 über einen Fonds mit 60 Mitarbeitern abwickeln lassen.
hedgefunds  2010  regulation  reform  risk  finance  Dodd-Frank  SEC  CFTC  banking  proptrading  georgesoros 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
Can America Function More Like a Fiscally Responsible Company? Its up to Us, the Shareholders
Meeker started the project while still at Morgan Stanley, and said in a call this morning she’s going back to her day job tomorrow. There’s no USA, Inc. Part 2 coming out, and no Al Gore-like “Inconvenient Truth” tour planned. It was a one-time project, born of her own curiosity and belief that Americans should know where their money is going.

The answer to whether American will ever be run more like a company lies with whether America’s “shareholders” will ever start to demand it.
Medicare  Medicaid  debt  government  finance  USA  2011  sovereign  budget  savings  socialsecurity  analysis  research  politics 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Wall St. Often Slow to Disclose Brokers' Sins - NYTimes.com
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Wall Street’s self-policing organization,

Morgan Stanley separately was hit with a $2.2 million penalty for failing to appropriately report 1,800 incidents of customer complaints and other wrongdoing. It was the largest fine ever levied against a firm for disclosure issues.
Since then, the tally of Finra’s disciplinary cases has ebbed and flowed. In 2010, the regulator suspended 56 brokers for failing to report previous infractions, up from 34 in 2006. Annual fines rose to $2 million from $1.6 million over the same period.
In one of the most prominent cases last year, Finra fined Goldman Sachs $650,000 for failing to disclose that a trader, Fabrice P. Tourre, and another employee had received a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission, a warning that the agency was considering an enforcement action against them.
banking  broker  transparency  advice  Finra  finance  USA  morganstanley  goldmansachs  citigroup 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
US economics: One big Ponzi scheme - Opinion - Al Jazeera English
At the same time, the people investigating Madoff are making a small fortune. According to the Financial Times: "The army of lawyers and consultants helping to recover funds from Bernard Madoff's $19.6bn fraud stand to earn more than $1.3bn in fees, according to new figures that detail the cost of liquidating the huge Ponzi scheme."
The comments of readers to The Times appear to be more insightful than the paper’s own reports. Here is one from Texas: "I actually, sort of, feel sorry for this man. He was just doing what many investment firms were doing at the same time. He has been imprisoned as a scapegoat - yet many people since then - and to this day - are doing the same thing. Where are the indictments against the thousands of other people who did the same thing - and knowingly led this country into financial disaster?"
madoff  2011  SEC  nytimes  finance  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  Dodd-Frank  inequality 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Jamie Dimons Biggest Disaster Is Waiting: Simon Johnson - Bloomberg
Jamie Dimon’s Biggest ‘Disaster’ Is Waiting (WSJ)“Dimon himself has argued that we can’t deal with too-big- to-fail until we have a way to manage the orderly liquidation of big banks. Yet even with the Dodd-Frank overhaul enacted, we still have no process for handling the failure of a big cross- border bank like JPMorgan. There is no framework — either through the courts or directly between governments — to deal with such a collapse, other than through a Lehman-type bankruptcy. So when a big bank next gets into trouble, the choice will be between allowing a meltdown, with presumably awful financial consequences, and providing a bailout, which can have big fiscal impact.”
toobigtofail  2011  fraud  Dodd-Frank  politics  lobby  finance  power  bailout  TARP  SEC  CFTC  FDIC 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Planet Money's Toxic Asset : NPR
A short film about the life and death of Toxie, Planet Money's toxic asset.
toxicassets  financialcrisis  subprime  2010  Financalmeltdown  bubble  finance  journalism 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Inequality, leverage and crises | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
Of the many origins of the global crisis, one that has received comparatively little attention is income inequality. This column provides a theoretical framework for understanding the connection between inequality, leverage and financial crises. It shows how rising inequality in a climate of rising consumption can lead poorer households to increase their leverage, thereby making a crisis more likely.
inequality  debt  finance  macroeconomics  crisis  microeconomics  income  Gini-coefficient  leverage  2008  2007 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
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