asterisk2a + euro   116

Geographies of Austerity: Mark Blyth
EU bank bailout (incl Britain) = 40% of EU GDP (incl Britain) = 5 trillion Euros. AUSTERITY FOR WHOM?! // secular stagnation - ZIRP, NIRP, QE, austerity, liquidity trap, aggregate demand short-fall = creditors paradise. their debt will not be inflated away. deflation - deflationary environment. for the next 2-3 decades. = NO DRIVE TO INVEST IN PRODUCTIVE ASSETS! = productivity gap. [...] rentier paradise. [...] = interest formation (those who have, call the shots, status quo). [...] deflationary spiral (PIGS & Germany) exporting deflation ... getting more competitive [EU has 2015 a current account surplus, bought my USA] = Dr Wolfgang Schaeuble. [...] Fall of Centrists, rise of the SNP & UKIP (reactionary) ... Trump. [...] as investment rate (ie SME/SMB lending) stays same, does not grow = DEAD. Eurobonds/Investment Fund(UK, 5bn 5 years). [...] min 55 - deflationary politics (policy for 1-10-20% of society) is one way train. DEATH. especially w austerity and low wages/secular stagnation.
austerity  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  general  election  2010  general  election  2015  George  Osborne  Iain  Duncan  Smith  David  Cameron  Ed  Miliband  economic  history  Mark  Blyth  book  Richard  Koo  welfare  state  welfare  reform  bank  bailout  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  IMF  ChristineLagarde  Salami  Tactics  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  Confidence  Fairy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Tony  Blair  Gordon  Brown  European  Union  Euro  ECB  BOJ  PIGS  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  politician  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  banking  systemic  risk  OMT  LTRO  MarioDraghi  trichet  BOE  deflation  deflationary  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  rentier  rent-seeking  Mark  Carney  Donald  Trump  business  consumer  TLTRO  non-performing  loan  NPL  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
A!104 – Panama Freaks
58:26 - spin doctor and positioning, PR. // es ist ja bekannt das intendanten des fernsehen mal einen anruf bekommen und es richtig stellen sollen, so wie inter BPK: illegal eingewanderte fluechtlinge. was ein oxymoron. ein fluechtling zu sein ist keine illegale sache! // + 10.000 kids missing! // 1:45:54 - Panama Papers. Journalists have for years papers. And don't use them to shine light on the organised system in the western world of tax evasion/avoidance! Wie fatal.
Panama  Papers  investigative  journalism  journalism  journalismus  tax  evasion  tax  amnesty  tax  avoidance  Turkey  International  spin  doctor  Positioning  PR  manufactured  consent  corporate  media  BPK  refugee  crisis  Greece  Brussels  Rechtsradikalismus  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsradikale  Gewalt  Rechtsruck  Germany  Angela  Merkel  Asylbewerber  Völkerrecht  European  Union  Schengen  Agreement  political  refugee  war  refugee  Human  Rights  Act  Human  Rights  Watch  Human  Trafficking  sex  condition  decency  dignity  humanitarian  crisis  humanitarian  tragedy  Erdogan  Kurds  Middle  East  sex  trade  tax  loopholes  tax  loopoles  Career  Politicians  AfD  NPD  Agenda  2010  ALG2  neoliberal  neoliberalism  liberal  economic  reform  hartz-iv  squeezed  class  job  insecurity  working  poor  Precariat  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Minijob  1  Euro  Aufstocker  low  pay  low  income  minimum  wage  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  bank  bailout  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  recovery  GFC  economic  history  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  European  Election  2014  rechtsradikal  Fremdenfeindlichkeit  Ausländerfeindlichkeit  Xenophobia  Xenophobic  PEGIDA  Altersarmut  poverty  poverty  trap  poverty  in  old  age  poverty  c 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
What Happens Next (In Europe)?
the odds of another crisis are higher than a rally to fresh records. [...]
“The 2009-2015 rally originated from two main drivers: a massive stimulus, and credit expansion in China,” said Goette, who’s a partner at his firm in Zug, Switzerland and helps oversee 1 billion Swiss francs ($1 billion).

“European earnings have not followed suit so far. Skepticism regarding central-bank operations has started to emerge.”
ECB  Brussels  recovery  reflate  reflation  China  credit  bubble  Germany  PIGS  zombie  banks  European  Bank  Supervision  European  Economic  Area  European  Election  2014  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  MarioDraghi  OMT  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  Brexit  Grexit  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  history  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  Yanis  Varoufakis  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  youth  unemployment  demographic  bubble  OAP  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  liberal  reform  Precariat  precarious  employment  low  pay  low  income  Minijob  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  1  Euro  Job  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  union  union  Rechtsruck  Bundesbank  fault  lines  shareholder  capitalism  bailout  GFC  2016  PBOC  Exportweltmeister  zombie  Financial  Stability  Board  crony  capitalism  Deutsche  Bank  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  Beton  Gold  Betongold  asset  allocation  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  democracy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Russia  Crimea  Ukraine  U 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Yanis Varoufakis: »MONEY AND POWER«, Public Lecture 2015-11-04
3rd bailout loan $0 went to Greece. All to pay off banks. extend & pretend. 1st: ~90% went to the banks. [...] ESM does not exist [...] banking union plan not progressing at all. //&! Yanis Varoufakis @Oxford Union - youtu.be/zWB6lY2GBjQ - ACADEMIA LACKS ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT ATTITUDE! Because going against the grain has become anti-reputation. [...] it's all about expectations, predictions about where S&P500 will be in 12 months. [...] regression between theory and reality. economists have never been humble. [ see Wall Street cottage factory of analysis and prediction shops ] [...] if you torture the data and model enough it will confess. [< EU monetary union based on theory ] [...] [34:00] Brussels is technically incompetent and will not reform itself. I am a libertarian marxist. Schumpeter. true creative destruction. great wealth currently created - all going to 1%. = not humanitarian. not democratic. [...] 41:00 Q&A, <48:50> gov budget not same as household budget; George Osborne.
bank  crisis  banking  crisis  European  Election  2014  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Grexit  Yanis  Varoufakis  Tsipras  Syriza  Brussels  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  GFC  Great  Depression  credit  crisis  credit  creation  Super  Cycle  debt  overhang  liquidity  trap  ECB  Troika  MarioDraghi  economic  history  Richard  Koo  leverage  recovery  deflation  deflationary  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Germany  underinvestment  Super  Rich  reflate  reflation  Generationengerechtigkeit  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  balance  sheet  recession  Euro  Gold  Standard  ESM  IMF  OECD  banking  union  EEA  Economics  Academia  Academics  Economists  Scholars  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Gesellschaft  society  Yanis  Varoufakis  financial  crisis  economic  model  econometrics  social  theory  monetary  union  Chicago  School  poverty  economic  history  austerity  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  UK  nasty  party  Richard  Koo  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  macroprudential  policy  aggregate  demand  Capital  Expenditure  income  tax  receipts  deflation  deflationary  Universal  Basic  class  warfare 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  deposit  levy  MarioDraghi  Abenomics  economic  history  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  recovery  Yen  Euro  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  distortion  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  debt  bubble  New  Normal  financial  repression  faultlines  global  economy  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Japan  UK  secular  stagnation  western  world  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflation  Sweden  Switzerland  China  Yuan  JGB  2016  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Super  Cycle  recession  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaftsforum in Davos: Die Welt bangt um Europa - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Wie steht es um Europa? Schlimm, wenn man der Stimmung beim Weltwirtschaftsforum in Davos glaubt. In den Augen vieler droht der Kontinent auseinanderzudriften. Die letzte Hoffnung ruht auf Angela Merkel. [...] Schäubles Andeutung wird zum "Marshall-Plan" Wie groß die Erwartungen sind, die auf Deutschland ruhen, zeigen auch die Reaktionen auf den Vorstoß von Finanzminister Schäuble, "viele Milliarden Euro" in die Nachbarländer Syriens zu investieren, um diese zu stabilisieren und zu verhindern, dass die Flüchtlinge weiter nach Europa drängen. So vage Schäubles Worte waren, so begehrlich wurden sie aufgenommen. Von einem "neuen Marshallplan" war gleich die Rede. "Ich bin begeistert von dieser Idee", jubelte sogar Milliardär Soros - ansonsten nicht unbedingt ein Freund Schäubles.
European  Union  Europe  monetary  ECB  monetary  policy  refugee  crisis  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Germany  faultlines  global  imbalances  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  bank  bailout  GFC  recovery  structural  unemployment  economic  history  fiscal  Euro  Brexit  civil  war  ISIS  Middle  East  Iraq  Afghanistan  Libya  Lybia  National  Security  Schengen  Agreement 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Europäische Union: Schengen versagt wie der Euro - Kolumne - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[ managing the status quo ] Der Euro wackelt nach wie vor, das Schengen-System der offenen Grenzen ist de facto gescheitert. Beide europäischen Konstruktionen scheitern am selben Problem: Die EU konnte sich nur auf den kleinsten gemeinsamen Nenner einigen.
Leadership  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Germany  European  Union  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Jean-Claude  Juncker  GFC  Grexit  Brexit  Euro  bank  bailout  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  sovereign  debt  crisis  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  banking  crisis  economic  history  Brussels  accountability 
november 2015 by asterisk2a
China's currency devaluation could spark 'tidal wave of deflation' | Business | The Guardian
[3rd day in a row Yuan/RMB is devalued by PBOC (13/08/15)] “We’re all going to feel it: we’ll feel it through commodities; we’ll feel it through manufactured goods exports, not just from China but from everywhere that has to compete with it; and we’ll feel it through wages.” [...] China could be willing to let the yuan depreciate by as much as 25% over the next five years – “stone by stone, step by step” – in an attempt to restore the export-led growth that was such a winning formula [...] China [may be] trying to protect itself against the period of financial instability [following Taper by western central banks Fed/BOE] [or counter $ recent rise 21% & peg against $] [or fight home grown recession with kitchen sink] // &! bloom.bg/1gC8FFe &! bloom.bg/1WkMfZZ &! bloom.bg/1hy7O9l &! bloom.bg/1NpE4FI &! bv.ms/1IKB3fX // what is the new normal 4 growth in this global economy, competitive = keeping prices low = inflation & low interest rate pressure.
yuan  RMB  PBOC  China  devaluation  deflationary  deflation  UK  USA  Europe  Exportweltmeister  competition  competitive  competitiveness  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  secular  stagnation  western  world  globalisation  globalization  commodities  commodity  business  commoditization  Germany  Asia  Latin  America  borderless  flat  world  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  wage  pressure  productivity  output  gap  recovery  GFC  economic  history  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  Great  Moderation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  IMF  SDR  currency  war  disinflation  inflation  wage  inflation  Japan  Australia  Oil  price  energy  price  Developing  Frontier  Markets  Forex  USD  British  Pound  Euro  Yen  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  Bank  of  Canada  asset  bubble  macroprudential  policy  asset  allocation  productive  investment  underinvestment  business  investment  2015 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China devalues yuan currency to three-year low - BBC News
bbc.in/1WfUOFp // The weakening of the currency will also put the US Fed on the spot. In effect China is exporting deflation to the US - and so some will argue that the Fed should find an elegant way to back away from its recent signalling that September will see the first rise in interest rates since the Crash of 2008. Or to put it another way, in terms of US manufacturers and exporters, Beijing has done the monetary tightening that arguably the US economy needs. // &! tcrn.ch/1Tnj89s Apple shares reaction -5%, higher import costs. // &! bbc.in/1TrsssP - rattles the markets. // &! bit.ly/1JdPM8F - Der starke Verlust des Yuan deutete darauf hin, dass China einen Währungskrieg mit dem Westen provoziert. Doch tatsächlich spiegelt der niedrige Kurs die Schwäche der chinesischen Wirtschaft. // &! 3rd day, 3 devaluation move - bit.ly/1Ns1kmu &! Western central banks advised to resist [taper] & 2 prepare 2 ward off deflationary slump in face of cheaper Chinese exports - bit.ly/1DLIEy3
China  economic  growth  2015  yuan  currency  war  devaluation  PBOC  Taper  USA  UK  deflationary  deflation  RMB  Japan  Europe  Germany  disinflation  inflation  expectation  dis-inflation  inflation  inflation  targeting  western  world  BOE  Fed  ECB  BOJ  Brazil  Australia  commodities  IMF  SDR  Forex  Yen  USD  Euro  British  Pound  recovery  faultlines  global  trade  global  economy  globalisation  globalization  global  imbalances  savings  glut  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  monetary  policy  Oil  price  energy  price 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Griechenland: Varoufakis sagt Wahrheit über Schuldenschnitt - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Gebärden sich die Griechen bei den Verhandlungen mit ihren Gläubigern als rücksichtslose Zocker? Nein, im Gegenteil, sie argumentieren bewundernswert stringent: Ohne Schuldenschnitt kann es keine sinnvolle Einigung geben. [...] Was erklärt diese Irrationalität? Aus meiner Sicht sind es die Lügenmärchen, die wir uns seit Jahren immer wieder erzählen: dass der Euro so stark ist wie die Mark, dass eine Währungsunion auch ohne einen gemeinsamen Haushalt funktionieren kann und dass die Griechen ihre Kredite zurückzahlen. Wir hängen jetzt im Netz unserer eigenen Märchen fest. Die eine Wahrheit ist, dass die Währungsunion zerbricht oder eine Fiskalunion erzwingt. Die andere Wahrheit ist, dass die Griechen pleite sind. Und eine dritte Wahrheit ist, dass der Schuldenschnitt kommt, so oder so.
haircut  Grexit  Greece  sovereign  debt  crisis  zombie  banks  bailout  economic  history  debt  jubilee  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  debt  restructuring  IMF  Troika  ECB  monetary  union  fiscal  union  Pact  Schuldenbremse  banking  union  Euro 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Jobcenter: Nahles kürzt Förderung, mehr für Langzeitarbeitslose - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Jobcenter müssen in den kommenden drei Jahren mit 750 Millionen Euro weniger auskommen. Bundesarbeitsministerin Nahles will laut einem Bericht Fördermittel umschichten. Kritiker sehen lange geplante Projekte in Gefahr.
hartz-iv  ALG2  Aufstocker  Germany  austerity  labour  market  labour  economics  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  folly  policy  error  long-term  unemployment  underemployed  employability  youth  unemployment  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Minijob  1  Euro  Job  GroKo  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  short-term  thinking  short-term  view 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB unveils massive QE boost for eurozone
The European Central Bank (ECB) says it will inject at least €1.1 trillion into the ailing eurozone economy. The ECB will buy bonds worth €60bn per month until the end of September 2016 and possibly longer, in what is known as quantitative easing (QE). The ECB has also said eurozone interest rates are being held at the record low of 0.05%, where they have been since September 2014. ECB president Mario Draghi said the programme would begin in March. The eurozone is flagging and the ECB is seeking ways to stimulate spending. Mr Draghi said the programme would be conducted "until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation", which the ECB has pledged to maintain at close to 2%. + bit.ly/1GCvd40 &! bit.ly/1Ci5DgR &! bit.ly/1unR0lf &! bit.ly/1JnpsDm
ECB  QE  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  deflation  deflationary  recovery  Europe  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  GFC  deleveraging  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  Grexit  consumer  debt  private  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  household  debt  debt  restructuring  haircut  public  debt  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  fiat  currency  fiat  money  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  Japan  economic  history  global  economy  2015  faultlines  PIGS  output  gap  productivity  Euro  currency  war  NIRP  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  exit  strategy  MarioDraghi  Wall  Street 
january 2015 by asterisk2a
Jürgen Trittin: Plädoyer für linke Reformen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Heute ist es für viele Menschen, gerade wirtschaftlich Schwächere, schwer geworden, dem Begriff "Reform" etwas Gutes abzugewinnen. Viel zu oft war Reform ein Synonym für sozialen Rückschritt & Ausschluss aus der Gesellschaft. Reform heute ist neoliberal aufgeladen, es steht für Deregulierung, für weniger Sicherheit, mehr Armutsrisiko & weniger Demokratie. Diese reale Erfahrung hat die Angst vor Veränderung erhöht. So haben Konservative leichtes Spiel. Das Bittere ist: Für diese Diskreditierung von Veränderung, für die Umdeutung von Reform sind auch Regierungen der linken Mitte mitverantwortlich. Links reden, rechts wählen - das ist keine deutsche Marotte. Als Folge der Finanzkrise wurden in Europa erst einmal reihenweise konservative & wirtschaftsliberale Regierungen gewählt. Gerade dort, wo die Krise wirklich zugeschlagen hat, zeigte sich wieder einmal: Krisen sind keine guten Zeiten für eine Politik der linken Mitte. [GroKo: Das allermeiste bleibt, wie es ist.] youtu.be/yAmiQJYqjxM
Germany  neoliberal  neoliberalism  economic  history  AfD  liberal  economic  reform  Zeitarbeit  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  hartz-iv  Minijob  1  Euro  Job  Agenda  2010  underemployed  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  structural  unemployment  child  poverty  poverty  in  old  age  poverty  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  Kinderbetreuung  crony  capitalism  Bailout  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  GFC  deregulation  security  fairness  book  Gerechtigkeit  pollution  resource  depletion  climate  change  insecurity  unsertainty  immigration  imigrants  Zivilgesellschaft  Politics  GroKo  Angela  Merkel  2014  capitalism  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  compromise  European  Election  2014  UKIP  FPÖ  Austria  Switzerland  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  Elite  Super  Rich  Privileged  society  Europe  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  competitive  advantage  competitiveness  Competition  competitive  comparative  advantage  BRIC  MINT 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Europawahl: Rechtspopulisten feiern Erfolg in Europa - SPIEGEL ONLINE
caveat - voter durnout. but but, still 2 black eyes for democracy and how Europe seems not to do well - politically and from a society landscape. etc etc _ http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/europawahl-kommentare-der-presse-a-971668.html +++ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27559714 "It is clear the UK Conservatives have a real fight on their hands to win allies for their reform agenda in Europe. [...] The election has delivered a big blow to the political establishment in Europe - the establishment that pursued austerity and bank bailouts, at great cost to millions of ordinary voters." [...] "Martin Schulz, the former Socialist president of the European Parliament - said of the FN victory: "It's a bad day for the European Union, when a party with a racist, xenophobic and anti-Semitic programme gets 25% of the vote."
European  Election  2014  voter  turnout  democracy  Democratic  Process  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Euro  Sceptics  Establishment  European  Parliament 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
What The ECB's "Unprecedented" Forward Guidance Means | Zero Hedge
Europe struck in credit crisis - liquidity trap. & other problems - Politics / Brussels - one to mention. >> "The move clearly marks an innovative step in the ECB's communication and policy strategy for a bank that previously had always refused to pre-commit on interest rates." >> Problem is - ECB will have it hard to maneuver out of the measures, end schemes, etc. "Monetary Policy is no Panacea." Ben Bernanke. + >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-04/diminishing-effects-qe-programs
unemployment  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  M3  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  imbalance  political  error  creditcrunch  forward  guidance  trustagent  austerity  Taper  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Politics  PIIGSFB  GFC  MarioDraghi  output-gap  European  Commission  Euro  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  OMT  NIRP  communication  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  escape  velocity  ZIRP  PIIGS  Germany 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
IMF Admits Mistakes on Greece Bailout - WSJ.com
"The International Monetary Fund is set to admit to major missteps over the past three years in its handling of the bailout of Greece, the first spark in a debt crisis that spread across Europe." > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-05/imf-admits-it-idiot-and-liar "" The greater beneficiary of the 2010 bailout wasn't so much Greece as the wider euro-zone, the document suggested. It described the rescue as a "holding operation" that "gave the euro area time to build a firewall to protect other vulnerable members and averted potentially severe effects on the global economy." "" >> + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oecd-und-eu-kommission-gegen-euro-sparpolitik-und-fuer-mehr-inflation-a-903575.html
monetary  policy  Politics  GFC  monetary  theory  Europe  accountability  accounting  European  Commission  GoldmanSachs  Euro  Troika  Brussels  ECB  political  folly  policy  error  greatrecession  policy  folly  debtoverhang  ChristineLagarde  trust  economic  history  fiscal  policy  Debt  Super  Cycle  confidence  political  error  sovereign  crisis  trustagent  austerity  PIIGS  fiscal  theory  greatdepression  balance  sheet  recession  IMF  bailout 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Saxo Bank CEO On The 'Eurozone Minefield': "This Crisis Will Not Pass" | Zero Hedge
Cyprus was indeed a template for bail ins and that outright confiscatory wealth taxes, disguised as solidarity payments, could be used to raise funds. "The governments of Europe need money, and the private sector has it. It is as simple as that. Be very paranoid," he said, warning investors that the mattress may be a safer place to deposit money over the weekend than their bank accounts. "Frankly, it is a complete mess. And it is a mess that gets worse and worse every day," is how the outspoken truthiness begins, adding, "anyone with a rational view of the world now sees the currency collaboration as a historic failure that can lead to even further fatal consequences for Europe and the continent’s competitiveness vis-à-vis the rest of the world."
currency  union  2013  Politics  lostgeneration  economic  history  Europe  Saxo  Bank  unintended  consequences  Political  error  Lars  Seier  Christensen  Euro  Policy  bail-in  europeanunion  Troika  greatdepression  folly  Cyprus  NiallFerguson  greatrecession  lostdecade  folly 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
ECB Re-Bluffs To Cyprus Bluff, Is "Prepared To Let Cyprus Go" | Zero Hedge
And to think: so much pain and confusion over what CNBC can't stop repeating is nothing but a tiny, little country. Tiny... maybe. But the precedent it will set may well be of Archduke Ferdinandian size.
contagion  OMT  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  sovereign  debt  crisis  Euro  Troika  PIIGS  banking  crisis  ECB  Cyprus  bank  crisis  zombi  banks  bailout  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Ausblick 2013: Die Krise kommt nach Europa zurück - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Aber die Fed liegt hier voll im Trend. Mark Carney, der jüngst ernannte nächste Gouverneur der Bank of England, denkt gar über ein nominales Ziel für das Bruttoinlandsprodukt nach. Das würde die Notenbank regelrecht zwingen, Inflation zu erzeugen, wenn das Realwachstum gering ist - so wie jetzt. Und der frisch gewählte japanische Regierungschef Shinzo Abe will ebenfalls, dass seine Notenbank Staatsanleihen kauft, um die Inflation anzukurbeln. Überall um uns herum wird die Geldpolitik in dramatisch aufgelockert, nur in der Euro-Zone nicht.

Die EZB hingegen muss auch weiter dem alleinigen Ziel der Preisstabilität huldigen. So steht es in den europäischen Verträgen. Zu deren strikter Einhaltung mahnen fast jeden Tag die Bundesbank und die meisten deutschen Leitartikler. Die Folgen dieser Diskrepanz in der Geldpolitik zwischen EZB und fast allen anderen großen Notenbanken sind in den Märkten überhaupt noch nicht durchgesickert. Ich erwarte eine kräftige spekulative Aufwertung des Euro...
benbernake  MarioDraghi  Mario  ECB  greatrecession  GFC  PIIGS  monetization  monetary  theory  currency-war  currency  debasement  sovereign  debt  crisis  Euro  2013  2012  BOE  Fed  inflation  reflation  BOJ  nominal  GDP  targeting  Mark  Carney  monetary  policy 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
France and the euro: The time-bomb at the heart of Europe | The Economist
THE threat of the euro’s collapse has abated for the moment, but putting the single currency right will involve years of pain. The pressure for reform and budget cuts is fiercest in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, which all saw mass strikes and clashes with police this week (see article). But ahead looms a bigger problem that could dwarf any of these: France.

[Its] economy looks increasingly vulnerable as well.

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21566233-france-slowly-heading-towards-crisis-says-john-peet-can-country-be-reformed

As our special report in this issue explains, France still has many strengths, but its weaknesses have been laid bare by the euro crisis. For years it has been losing competitiveness to Germany and the trend has accelerated as the Germans have cut costs and pushed through big reforms. Without the option of currency devaluation, France has resorted to public spending and debt.

[...] [Yet,] Mr Hollande still seems half-hearted.
IMF  Spain  economic  history  economics  Italy  unemployment  FrancoisHollande  Politics  liberal  economic  reform  GFC  competitiveness  greatrecession  Euro  Europe  austerity  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  PIIGS 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Prof Martin Feldsein on Spanish economy and Euro (28Sept12) - YouTube
Report about anti austerity protests.
Report about politicians in Portugal taking a step back.

Spain, Catalonia, Politics, ...

Social fabric breaks apart.

Decline is subliminal. In-front our eyes, hardly noticeable.
confidence  trust  economic  history  Euro  fiscal  policy  ECB  IMF  fiscal  sovereignty  Pact  Troika  ESM  economics  MarianoRajoy  Catalonia  lostgeneration  greatrecession  Europe  Politics  social  contract  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  Spain  Portugal  austerity 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB's Mario Draghi unveils bond-buying euro debt plan
after "what ever it takes" speech in London (after Opening of London 2012 games) - market soars.
A month later ECB follows through - and unveils OMT program

http://youtu.be/yYjXRL5YmI0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyzXiPhyub4.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnpWUPGQt_g
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5z9YwqHFG0

Jens Weidmann - Bundesbank was only one against program.
ECB moved out of Bundesbank shadow ...

- most interesting thing is; the risk of sovereign debt stays with national central bank, the risk to the balance sheet (ie in case of a GREXIT, stays with Greece Central Banks balance sheet); ECB create money, gives it to Greece Central Bank, which buys the Greece debt, which stays on Greece Central Banks balance sheet. In case of Grexit scenario - money creation effect of this type of debt monetisation stays within Greece as they change back to Drachma (regional currency).
Grexit  Jens  Weidmann  Euro  Europe  Monetary  System  ZIRP  Fed  QE  Sterilization  SMP  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  greatrecession  debtoverhang  2012  monetization  monetarism  policy  MarioDraghi  Mario  OMT  ECB 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
When will the euro collapse? It’s already dead - Matthew Lynn's London Eye - MarketWatch
Meanwhile, money flees to safe havens.

London real estate agents report that the phones are ringing non-stop with wealthy euro-zone property buyers looking for somewhere to park their cash — and houses in the British capital look a safe bet. Swiss bankers are flush with cash exiting Italy and Germany. Everybody with any significant wealth wants at least part of it outside the euro zone because they are worried the currency might one day implode.

[...]

This is more than just a semantic point. It is also important for investors to grasp.

When a currency stops working the damage done to the economy is immediate. Trade stops flowing. Investment gets postponed. Capital flees. Very quickly, unemployment starts to rise, and output declines.

That is precisely what is happening in the euro zone right now.

This part of the crisis — when the monetary system ceases to function in any meaningful way — may well be the worst point.
austerity  Politics  greatrecession  policy  folly  policy  error  Monetary  System  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  capital-flight  Euro  PIIGS 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
The euro crisis: We haven't forgotten how to make depressions | The Economist
GREECE is in a depression. A real deal, no kidding, bad-as-the-1930s depression.

The Greek economy is imploding for no other reason than that the prices are wrong.

***

sticky wages = sticky price for everything else

+

1930's Depression was excaserbated by countries sticking to the Gold standard.
The Euro is today Greece's, Spain's and so forth (PIIGS) Gold Standard that is ruinous.
EU Politicians made a grave error of judgement and assumptions - and are too stuck up as always to admit mistakes and revert course, OR drive full steam ahead with fiscal integration and assuming liabilities as a whole.

***

http://www.economist.com/node/21560252
book  Brussels  policy-makers  politics  economic-thought  goldstandard  gold  sticky-wages  economics  supply-demand  demand-curve  economic  history  Euro  EMU  Europe  policy  folly  policy  error  depression  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Greece  greatrecession  greatdepression 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
EZB: Ankündigung von Draghi zum Anleihenkauf enttäuscht Anleger - SPIEGEL ONLINE
ECB loading up on sovereign debt (PIIGS + France, Belgium) poses a balance sheet risk if just one country Defaults outright and or even imposed just a haircut even for ECB [ECB demanded and pulled through this demand to take no haircut in the Grecce's partial default/PSI 2011].

Meaning then that the ECBs balance sheet is under water and thus the National Central Banks of each country within the EMU have to raise money via its respective governments on debt markets (which are likely then closed because of the severity of the situation, meaning they have to sell their reserve holding of foreign currencies and assets) and without appropriate funds ... Europe's sovereign debt crisis once defined to the south would likely turn into an outright currency crisis.

Baseline: Open Market Operations (SMP) by the ECB have massive tail risk, unintended consequences for the ECB, the monetary system, price stability, the Euro.
ZIRP  QE  SMP  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  greatrecession  GFC  currency-war  currency  debasement  default  Greece  policy  folly  policy  error  2012  Europe  blackswan  confidence  trustagent  trust  tail  risk  Euro  creditcrunch  Monetary  System  theory  policy  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  Jens  Weidmann  MarioDraghi  Bundesbank  ECB 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Charting Europe's Broken Transmission Channels | ZeroHedge
Barclays provides a succinct flowchart of just where those transmission channels are broken. However, with SMP empirically a losing proposition for sovereign spreads, LTROs having had no impact on loans to non-financial corporates, and rate cuts not reaching the peripheral economies (and in fact signaling further divergence); it seems that short of full-scale LSAP (which JPM thinks will need to be a minimum EUR600bn to be in any way effective), whatever Draghi says will be a disappointment and perhaps that explains the weakness in European sovereigns this week as exuberance fades (or is the game to implicitly weaken the EUR to regain competitiveness).

The transmission policy channels of central bank largesse are failing... as giving free money to banks is not reaching the economy... (LTRO) ... and cutting rates didn't reach the areas it needed... (base rate cuts do not translate in rate cuts on the other side [real economy].

A weaker Euro? Be careful what you wish for.
creditcrunch  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  currency-war  currency  debasement  policy  folly  policy  error  Politics  confidence  trustagent  trust  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  QE  debtoverhang  deleveraging  GFC  greatrecession  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  MarioDraghi  SMP  LTRO  moneysupply  velocity  of  money  transmission  monetary  policy  System  ECB  PIIGS  Euro  competitiveness 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Draghi's message on how to mend the euro: It's the politics, stupido! | The Economist
Speaking last month when the ECB’s council met in Barcelona, Mr Draghi said that European leaders needed to set out a ten-year vision for the single currency, which would above all signpost how to secure the fragile monetary union with a workable fiscal underpinning. Mr Draghi spelt out today how such a long-term plan might help in the short-term. As was the case with the decisions of European leaders in Maastricht in December 1991 that paved the way to the euro in 1999, there would be a plan with clear deadlines and conditions. Just how important such a road-map was became clear, he said, when the Danes narrowly rejected the treaty in their referendum in mid-1992. By bringing into question the destination, that vote for a time upset the whole process, with interest rates jumping as the markets doubted that the journey would be made.
EMU  Euro  history  mariomonti  FrancoisHollande  sarkozy  angelamerkel  greatrecession  GFC  politics  PIIGS  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  MarioDraghi 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Why the euro is doomed to fall apart: it was an incredibly stupid idea in the first place – Telegraph Blogs
The euro was and is an insane economic idea balanced on the nonsense upon stilts of a very silly indeed political ideal.
And, let me remind you, just because you want to ignore economics does not mean that economics is going to ignore you.

- the euro was and is very idealistic. and was sold with threats from the past. -
- yes it would have worked if fiscal policy and other stuff was unified. - they got only half way through their idea, ... a bridge not finished.
sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  Germany  policy  folly  policy  error  political  economy  politics  economic-thought  economic  history  Europe  Euro 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
The euro crisis: Austerity is a pain. So is tight money | The Economist
What about, say, Greece? After all, it doesn’t have a central bank with independent powers to set monetary policy according to its needs. Recent research suggests that government spending has a large effect on the economy in exactly these circumstances, in which monetary policy is not set at the national level but by a supranational or external authority. Austerity will therefore hurt these countries: at current levels of prices and wages, aggregate demand in Greece is insufficient, and fiscal austerity eats further away at it in the absence of a central bank to pick up the slack.

Research suggests that austerity, besides its harmful effects in a currency union, is politically very costly. the emphasis should be on growth-promoting reforms, not austerity, when there are political limits.

Extent of Internal Devaluation to regain competitiveness - limited.

the ECB has to aggressively stabilise aggregate demand in the euro zone as a whole.
europeanunion  2012  Euro  aggregate  demand  devaluation  Italy  Portugal  PIIGS  competitiveness  debtoverhang  crisis  debt  sovereign  economics  politics  ECB  BOE  policy  fiscal  monetary  austerity  Europe  Greece 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Another Currency Runs Out: BOE Introduces "Collateral Term Repo Facility" To Deal With Sterling "Shortages" | ZeroHedge
When yet another central bank, in this case the BOE, proactively uses the word "shock" in relation to funding deficiency (in this case the GBP) if even with the phrases "contingency" and "there is currently no shortage" a brief week after the global central bank cartel did the same to assure the world of USD funding availability, it may be time to wonder i) just how bad is the global FX crunch in any currency (EUR most certainly included - see near record ECB deposit facility usage), ii) just how broken is the shadow banking system - as a reminder with Lehman it was money markets (a major component of shadow liquidity), now it is repo (smaller, but still critical component of shadow banking) that is failing and iii) when will this crisis escalate to the next logical step?
Euro  GBP  shortage  2011  currency  liquidity  BOE  ECB  Fed  shadowbanking 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Wikileaks Exposes German Preparations For "A Eurozone Chapter 11" | ZeroHedge
A EUROZONE CHAPTER 11
---------------------

¶9. (C) DB Chief Economist Thomas Mayer told Ambassador Murphy he was pessimistic Greece would take the difficult steps needed to put its house in order. A worst case scenario, says Mayer, could be that Germany pulls out of the Eurozone altogether in 20 years time. In 1990, Germany's Constitutional Court ruled that the country could withdraw from the Euro if: 1) the currency union became an "inflationary zone," or 2) the German taxpayer became the Eurozone's "de facto bailout provider." Mayer proposes a "Chapter 11 for Eurozone countries," which would place troubled members under economic supervision until they put their house in order. Unfortunately, there is no serious discussion of this underway, he lamented.
germany  greece  bailout  PIIGS  EMU  wikileaks  cable  cablegate  Europe  Euro  chapter-11  default  2011  politics 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Euro Traders Put Trust in Trichet as Merkel, Sarkozy Disappoint on Bonds - Bloomberg
Unlike the Federal Reserve, the ECB mops up the extra currency it creates through a program known as sterilization. It does that by auctioning seven-day term deposits from banks. The Fed’s $2.35 trillion in bond purchases, known as quantitative easing, went unsterilized, inflating the supply of dollars.
Fed  ECB  Sterilization  monetization  QE  2011  sovereign  debt  balancesheet  QE2  PIIGS  Euro  bailout 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Going Dutch – One Possible Solution To the Euro Debt Crisis? by Edward Hugh
While the new higher interest rates won’t have a huge impact in the short term, as existing debt needs to be steadily refinanced the extra cost will simply mount and mount. Which is why the Italian government is in a huge bind. It doesn’t have a debt flow problem, it has a debt stock problem, and as the risk premium charged on Italian debt rises and rises, and as the growth outcomes fail to meet the often optimistic targets, then the snowball of debt steadily slides its way down the mountain side with little the government can do to stop it growing as it moves.

However the present debate about creating Eurobonds is resolved, these alone will not solve the problem at this point, and, as many observers are noting, may even make matters worse by weakening the sovereign credit ratings in the core. In the longer run they could form part of a more general solution, but the moral hazard dimension they entail ...
sovereign  debt  crisis  2011  August  PIIGS  italy  competitiveness  competitive  germany  eurobond  transferunion  europe  Euro  scenario  outlook 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Anleihenkufe: Euro-Retter riskieren Inflation - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Das nächste Tabu ist gebrochen. Die Europäische Zentralbank will jetzt auch italienische Staatsanleihen aufkaufen.  Mit dieser Politik nähert sie sich immer weiter ihrem amerikanischen Pendant, der Fed, an. Die Gefahr dabei: Die Inflation könnte steigen.

"Die Fed ist nicht mehr unabhängig", sagt Scheide. "Geldpolitik und Finanzpolitik sind in den USA vermischt worden. Das ist genau das, was Europa nicht will. Denn das würde das Vertrauen in die EZB untergraben."

 "Kauft die EZB Anleihen am Kapitalmarkt, so steigt die Basisgeldmenge"  "Sollte die Geldmenge letztlich in der Privatwirtschaft ankommen, würde sie sich, so lehrt die Erfahrung, früher oder später in steigenden Preisen entladen."
Noch ist dieser Effekt in Europa überschaubar. Zu gering war bisher das Volumen der Anleihenkäufe. Zudem hat die EZB stets versucht, das neu geschaffene Geld dem Markt an anderer Stelle wieder zu entziehen. Dieses "Neutralisieren" wird jedoch umso schwieriger, je größer die Beträge werden.
ECB  Fed  monetization  Sterilization  debt  sovereign  crisis  trichet  PIIGS  USA  EFSF  inflation  stability  credibility  Euro  Dollar  expectations  economics  monetary  policy  fiscal  folly  bailout  dilemma  QE  quantitative-easing 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
It's Official: China Is The "Mystery" Daily Buyer Of Billions Of Euros | zero hedge
However, investors appear reluctant to go against China's vast economic resources.
China holds more than $3 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, with an estimated 60% of those in dollars. Its strategy toward the beleaguered euro zone helps it accomplish two goals: expanding its global reach and satisfying the need to diversify its vast reserves.

"The market is inclined to sell the euro on rallies [whereas] China wants to buy it on dips," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York. "It maintains the current range-bound conditions until we get clarification on the long-term outcome for Greece."
China  PIIGS  EURO  europe  2011  influence 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Globale Leitwhrung: Goldman SachsprophezeitDollar-Verfall - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Als Hauptgrund für die Dollar-Schwäche nennen die Analysten von Goldman Sachs das immense wirtschaftliche Ungleichgewicht in den USA. Die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit, die anstehende Haushaltskonsolidierung und die andauernde Flaute im Immobiliensektor vermiesten den Ausblick für die US-Konjunktur
USD  Euro  currency  reserve  2011  economy  worldbank  monetary  policy  Fed  ECB 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Head Of Eurogroup Admits To Lying About "Secret Greek Meeting" Out Of Fears For Market Collapse - "When It Becomes Serious, You Have To Lie" | zero hedge
On the tape, Mr. Juncker says he has “had to lie” and, speaking about touchy economic topics, “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”
EMU  Europe  Euro  PIIGS  greece  2011  sovereign  debt  politics  economics  default  restructuring  ireland  portugal  EFSF  ESM  ECB  Fed  fraud 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
ECB Raising Rates May Turn Into Mistake Weakening Euro, Standard Life Says - Bloomberg
“The euro is a particularly risky currency at these levels because the increasingly restrictive policy and the financial conditions are not really appropriate,” Dickson said in an interview. A series of rate increases “is not appropriate for the conditions or economics of Europe as a whole,” he said.
Investment strategists at Standard Life, Aberdeen Asset Management Plc and Scottish Widows Investment Partnership said last month that the biggest risk to markets was the possibility of policy makers getting decisions wrong. While ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said this month’s quarter-percentage-point increase in the main refinancing rate wasn’t necessarily the start of a series, colleagues signaled more are to come.
lostdecade  Japan  history  ECB  trichet  PIIGS  2011  divergence  germany  inflation  monetary  policy  EMU  Euro  europe 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
Merkel Turns Crisis into Opportunity to Reshape Euro Zone - Bloomberg
Germany’s message is “we don’t care about pain and the only solutions are austerity and structural reforms, and anything else has to wait for 2013,” when the EU aims to have a permanent defense system for the euro in place, said Roubini. “You need a more comprehensive solution sooner.”
Most international investors predict at least one of the 17 nations will leave the euro area within five years and that Greece and Ireland will default, according to the January 2011 Bloomberg Global Poll that underscored the urgency leaders face in calming markets. The same poll ranked Merkel as the most favored of nine global policy makers.
germany  greece  unemployment  economy  EMU  2011  angelamerkel  sarkozy  leadership  Europe  Euro  EFSF 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Whrungskrise: Europa muss mehr Europa wagen - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Die meisten Deutschen wissen, dass die schwarz-rot-goldene Kuscheligkeit vorbei ist. Eigentlich. Doch viele sehnen sich zurück in die Wohlfühlzone. Das hat auch mit der Früher-war-alles-besser-Nostalgie zu tun. Vor allem aber damit, dass die Bundesrepublik sich einst selbst genügte - und heute bei allen globalen Problemen mit drinhängt. Deutsche Soldaten kämpfen in Afghanistan gegen die Taliban. Fleißig-anspruchslose Chinesen machen anständigen schwäbischen Firmen die Weltmärkte streitig. Und Kanzlerin Angela Merkel muss mies wirtschaftende Griechen vor dem ökonomischen Kollaps retten.
angelamerkel  sarkozy  trichet  ecb  europeanunion  EuropeanCommission  2010  Euro  crisis  PIIGS  bailout  EFSF  EFSM 
december 2010 by asterisk2a
Devisenspezialist im Interview: "Die D-Mark würde den Dollar alt aussehen lassen", Seite 2 | FTD.de
Genau dieser Vorwurf zeigt doch, dass Politiker von Wirtschaft keine Ahnung haben und von ihren eigenen Fehlern ablenken wollen. Natürlich ist ein "Short" auf Griechenland momentan für viele eine lohnende Investition. Aber deshalb, weil die Entwicklung des Landes unhaltbar ist. Dafür ist nicht die Spekulation verantwortlich!

Die Märkte funktionieren doch. Es ist das Konstrukt des Euro, das nicht funktioniert. Schaltet man die Spekulanten aus, würde sich der Todeskampf der Gemeinschaftswährung noch etwas länger hinziehen – aber der Exitus kommt. Er ist unumgänglich. Und dabei werden mehr Menschen zu Schaden kommen, als dies bei einem Bankrott Griechenlands der Fall wäre – eine Staatspleite dreimal so groß wie Argentinien, aber immer noch vergleichsweise klein.
greece  hedgefunds  2010  july  euro  politics 
july 2010 by asterisk2a
Im Gespräch: Franco Frattini: „Die Spekulanten waren die besseren Schachspieler“ - Ausland - Politik - FAZ.NET
Italiener und Deutsche haben allerdings immer darauf geachtet, Geld zu sparen und bescheiden zu leben. Die Privatschulden in Italien oder Deutschland sind viel niedriger als in Großbritannien, den Vereinigten Staaten oder Spanien. Das liegt an unserer Kultur. So habe ich es schon in meiner Familie gelernt. Und die Briten haben auch noch ein etwa doppelt so hohes Haushaltsdefizit wie Italien, nämlich zehn bis elf Prozent des Bruttoinlandprodukts (BIP).

Vielmehr müssen wir, wie es die OECD tut, die Bruttoinlandsverschuldung als Kombination der öffentlichen und der privaten Verschuldung berechnen. Dann kommt heraus, dass Deutschland und Italien die Nummer eins sind in der EU. Wenn man sich auf die Staatsschulden beschränkt, steht Italien zwar schlecht da. Aber zu den Ursachen der Krise gehörte das Platzen der privaten Verschuldungsblasen, nicht die Explosion der Staatsschulden.
politics  speculation  economy  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  OECD  culture  Italy  Spain  Germany  2010  Euro  angelamerkel  lisbon-treaty 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
William Hague: „Wir wollen nicht, dass der Euro scheitert“ - Ausland - Politik - FAZ.NET
Hague gebrauchte Formulierungen wie „durchsetzungswillig“ und „begierig, sich zu engagieren“ für das europapolitische Engagement Großbritanniens unter seiner Verantwortung. Er beharrte darauf, die Konservativen hätten in den Koalitionsverhandlungen mit den Liberaldemokraten wesentliche Punkte ihrer europapolitischen Vorstellungen durchgesetzt. So würden künftig Volksabstimmungen über alle EU-Verträge gesetzlich vorgeschrieben, die weitere nationale Souveränitätsrechte an die Europäische Union verschöben. Außerdem habe sich die Koalition geeinigt, in der laufenden Legislaturperiode auf keinen Fall einen Beitritt zum Euro zu erwägen.

erlage führte, verkniff sich nun in Bezug auf die Lage der Gemeinschaftswährung jeden Anflug eines schadenfrohen Lächelns. Stattdessen sprach er von der Bedeutung einer „gesunden Euro-Zone“ für die britische Wirtschaft: „Wir wollen nicht, dass der Euro scheitert.“
euro  uk  davidcameron  germany  angelamerkel  westerwelle  FDP  EMU  Europa  2010  2011  2012 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
G-20 Clash Over Recovery Risks ’Sub-Potential’ Growth (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
At a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs in Busan, South Korea, June 4-5, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said the world cannot again bank on the cash-strapped U.S. consumer to drive growth and urged other nations to stimulate their own demand. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said fiscal tightening in “old industrialized economies” would aid the expansion by shoring up investor confidence.

Each strategy carries threats for the global rebound that the G-20 said faces “significant challenges.” Continued stimulus risks bondholder revolt over rising debt burdens, while spending cutbacks could worsen unemployment. Relying on exports leaves the world prone to trade wars and competitive currency devaluations as countries seek to give their companies an edge.

Each strategy carries threats for the global rebound that the G-20 said faces “significant challenges.” Continued stimulus risks bondholder revolt over rising debt burdens, while spending cutbacks coul
G20  june  fiscal  monetary  policy  greatrecession  tobin-tax  banking  recession  2010  recovery  demand  growth  Europe  timgeithner  germany  USA  PIIGS  austerity  capital  liquidity  basel2  export  exports  currency  currencies  euro  yen  dollar  yuan  protectionism  economics 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
Währungskrise: Britische Ökonomen erwarten Euro-Crash - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
doch die Einschätzungen, die einige von ihnen derzeit äußern, sind selbst für ihre Verhältnisse dramatisch: Der Euro kämpfe derzeit seinen Todeskampf, so lautet der Tenor einer Umfrage des britischen "Daily Telegraph" unter 25 Wirtschaftsexperten. Ohne radikale Änderungen könne die Gemeinschaftswährung schon sehr bald zugrundegehen.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/7806064/Euro-will-be-dead-in-five-years.html

Zwölf der 25 britischen Experten geben der Währungsgemeinschaft in ihrer aktuellen Form höchstens noch fünf Jahre. Acht glauben an die Stabilität des Euro, fünf wollten sich nicht festlegen. Noch vor einem Jahr hätte kaum jemand an einen möglichen Untergang der Gemeinschaftswährung geglaubt, schreibt die Zeitung. Doch die Verwerfungen der letzten Wochen und düstere Worte von Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel, "Existenzkrise" hä

Strukturprobleme die Explosion ihrer Schulden eindämmen können.
EMU  Euro  Europe  angelamerkel  sarkozy  PIIGS  history  greatdepression  fiscal  monetary  policy  ECB  trichet  june  2010  uk  economists  survey  greece  spain  portugal  ireland 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
Währungskrise: Euro rutscht unter 1,19 Dollar - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Der Euro stürzt ab. Die Gemeinschaftswährung fällt zum Wochenbeginn zeitweise unter 1,19 Dollar - und ist damit so schwach wie zuletzt im März 2006. Als Grund nennen Börsianer die Angst vor einer Staatspleite Ungarns.

Tokio - Die Furcht vor einem Übergreifen der Schuldenkrise auf Ungarn hat den internationalen Börsen einen schwachen Start beschert: Die Börsen-Indizes sanken deutlich - in Tokio rutschte der Nikkei um 3,8 Prozent ab. Hongkong meldete minus 2,5 Prozent und Seoul minus 2,7 Prozent.

ANZEIGE

Auch der Euro verliert weiter an Wert: Die europäische Gemeinschaftswährung fiel an der Börse in Tokio zeitweise auf einen Wert von 1,1888 Dollar - und ist damit so schwach wie seit März 2006 nicht mehr.
hungary  euro  Europe  PIIGS  EMU  june  2010  greatrecession  G20 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
World economy: Fear returns | The Economist
Unfortunately, Germany’s government seems to be drawing exactly the opposite conclusions, promising to set an example with tough cuts when it should be helping to stimulate growth. The worry is that, under German pressure, the ECB will have the same misguided tendency to toughness, condemning the euro area to years of stagnation.

Governments outside the euro zone are also at risk of drawing flawed conclusions, especially on exchange rates and fiscal policy. China seems to think that the euro’s decline makes it less urgent to allow the yuan to appreciate. The opposite is true. With its biggest export market in a funk, China needs to accelerate the rebalancing of its economy towards domestic consumption, with the help of a stronger currency.
PIIGS  Europe  stagnation  austerity  Spain  Greece  Euro  ECB  monetary  fiscal  policy  trichet  Germany  China  yuan  currencies  Dollar  growth  deflation  deflationary 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
Schuldenkrise: Warum Deutschland Europas größter Krisenprofiteur ist - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Kein Euro-Land ist so stark von seinen Ausfuhren abhängig wie Deutschland. Der Export sorgt für 45 Prozent der deutschen Wirtschaftsleistung. Zwar gehen rund 60 Prozent der deutschen Exporte in die Euro-Zone. Doch Firmen, die ihre Waren etwa in Asien oder USA anbieten, können dies nun zu günstigeren Preisen tun.

"Wettbewerbsfähig sind die meisten deutschen Unternehmen ohnehin, so dass die jüngste Abwertung des Euro für echte Preisvorteile im außereuropäischen Ausland sorgt", sagt Stefan Schilbe, Chefvolkswirt bei HSBC Trinkaus. Durch jahrelange Lohnzurückhaltung habe Deutschland die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit zurückgewonnen, die es seinerzeit durch eine zu harte Währung eingebüßt hatte.
Germany  recession  Euro  EMU  PIIGS  may  2010  economy  Europe  competitiveness  competitive  export  double-dip  outlook  forecast  stockmarket 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Euro Commercial Paper Rates Surge As Debt Roll Troubles Become Acute | zero hedge
The chart below demonstrates that while concerns about Libor are gaining steam, a far more dangerous situation has developed in the Euro Commercial Paper (top tier) market, where rates have surged far more in the past week than even compared to Euro Libor or Euribor. As those who were alive in the days after Lehman will recall, the freezing up of the Commercial Paper market was one of the primary reasons for the Fed's creation of the Commercial Paper emergency liquidity funding facility (CPFF). If the CP market once again dies, or, as it is better known in polite circles, "locks up" it will once again set off the avalanche of locked up credit markets initially for financial and other IG companies, and shortly thereafter spread to all other segments of the market. Should the CP rates continue rising without moderation, look for European credit markets to break soon enough.
CPFF  liquidity  repo  libor  europe  Euro  lehmanbrothers  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  may  2010  ECB  Fed  QE 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Is The Swiss National Bank Using UBS To Launder Its Euro Purchases? | zero hedge
today USD Libor hit pushed over 0.5%. The Swiss bank is a blatant outlier, in that its disclosed EUR Libor rate of 0.4850% is in fact 10% lower than its USD Libor. Just how big are the dollar funding needs of UBS, which many see as an "open market operations" vehicle for the SNB, a bank which it is no secret is now openly intervening in FX markets, and thus likely has provided a lifeline to UBS to provide this lower EUR Libor rate compared to US Libor. So how would the circle jerk go: SNB buys EUR in the open market (causing massive destruction in the EURCHF and GBPCHF pairs), then the excess euro holdings are funneled back into the market via a much cheaper EUR lending rate in the 3M funding market (LIBOR) compared to all other banks: the UBS 3M EUR Libor rate is a whopping 30% below the average EUR Libor rate of 0.6344%, nearly double the spread from average of the next lowest EUR Libor offer, that of RBS at 0.56%.
SNB  Euro  UBS  intervention  market  EMU  PIIGS  May  2010  ECB  CHF 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Bob Janjuah: "We Are Trapped In Some Sort Of Horrendous Keynesian/Monetarists' Nightmare...." | zero hedge
Kevin's work also made clear that one 5%+ GDP data point, driven by inventory, was certain - he thgt it would be Q3 09 but it ended up being in Q4. However, we both have felt and feel that the prvte sector is in the middle of a long multi-yr period of balance sheet repair, and that the questions re sustainable real 'growth' could/can only be answered once we strip out and/or see the abatement/absence of UNSUSTAINABLE government largesse/bailouts/handouts etc. To us, once you strip away the policymaker and his period of peak effectiveness, where we are now much closer to the end rather than the beginning, what is left to take grwth forward is not very much at all.

I refer of course to the key themes Sovereign Creditworthiness; and The Great Battle between Voluntary Austerity & Deflation, vs Involuntary Austerity, Inflation/Stagflation, Serial Bailouts, Debt & Debasement.

MV = PY / EMU M3 was -.3% y/y in 09, means that even with +M, V was negative. It is a balance sheet recession.
Keynesianism  monetization  balancesheet  recession  richardkoo  private  public  debt  sovereign  austerity  default  globalisation  economics  M3  moneysupply  macroeconomics  greatrecession  UK  history  Japan  argentina  Greece  PIIGS  EMU  Europe  USA  BRIC  China  brasil  emergingmarkets  paulvolcker  competitive  competitiveness  Germany  Finland  euro  reflection  double-dip  reflate  developing-world  may  2010 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Stabilitätspakt: Barroso zerpflückt deutsche Vorschläge zur Euro-Rettung | FTD.de
Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) rief Spanien unterdessen zu tiefgreifenden Wirtschaftsreformen auf. Vor allem auf dem Arbeitsmarkt und im Bankensystem seien rasche Maßnahmen erforderlich, betonte der IWF in einem Montag in Madrid veröffentlichten Bericht. Die konjunkturellen Aussichten in Spanien seien ungewiss. Der IWF gehe davon aus, dass die spanische Wirtschaft bis auf weiteres nur ein schwaches Wachstum erreichen werde.
piigs  spain  Euro  EMU  may  2010  outlook  growth  recovery  greatrecession  IMF  reform 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Leidensgenossen: Verlierer der Euro-Schuldenkrise | FTD.de
Jean-Claude Trichet, Präsident der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), spricht von dramatischen Zeiten und der schwersten Krise seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg. 750 Mrd. Euro stellen Brüssel und der Internationale Währungsfonds bereit, um einen Kollaps der Währungsunion zu verhindern. Die EZB kauft Staatsanleihen auf. Und die Bundesregierung verbietet ungedeckte Leerverkäufe bei einzelnen Finanzaktien, europäischen Schuldtiteln und untersagt nicht-gedeckte Kreditderivate auf Staaten.
ECB  trichet  bailout  EMU  Europe  may  2010  piigs  greece  Euro  pound  oil  s&p500  usa 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
European shares, euro skid on German ban, Merkel - Telegraph
"The euro is in danger. If we don't deal with this danger, then the consequences for us in Europe are incalcuable," Ms Merkel said in a speech to parliament, pushing the euro down from $1.2228 to $1.2145, before it bounced to $1.2190.
She also urged the European Union to speed up supervision of financial markets and introduce a new tax on them, while Germany was ready to act alone on banning short-selling.
EU levy needed
Ms Merkel said European leaders had to ensure banks could not "exort" the state any more and the EU would introduce its own financial transaction tax or levy if the Group of 20 nations did not reach such an agreement in June.
She also said the eurozone needed the possibility of organising the orderly insolvency of member states.
Jeremy Stretch, currency analyst at Rabobank, said: "Politicians have
angelamerkel  ban  bafin  bonds  short-selling  germany  Euro  Europe  EMU  capital  outflow 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Coming To America: PIMCO's Total Return Fund Rotates Out Of Europe | zero hedge
The April update for Pimco's Total Return Fund is out. The credit fund, which is now a quarter of a trillion juggernaut, clocking in at $224.5 billion, or $5 billion more than March, and 50% more than the $150 billion last April, has rotated aggressively out of non-US developed holdings (i.e. Bund and other exposure), and put the money back into the US. Total European holdings declined from $40 billion, or 18% of holdings, to $29 billion, or just 13%. At the same time, US holdings increased from 33% to 36%, or a $8 billion increase to $81 billion.Not too surprisingly, mortgage holdings are a scant 16% of holdings, compared to 86% in February of 2009. Is Pimco's European experiment over? Yet another bad sign for Bunds, which Pimco did a whirlwind tour pitching in early 2010 after it had established a position.
Europe  germany  bunds  bonds  bond  may  2010  EMU  Euro 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Währungskrise: Der Euro ist immer noch zu teuer | FTD.de
Nach Einschätzung von Ökonomen ist der Euro selbst beim aktuellen Kurs von rund 1,24 $ noch leicht überbewertet. Sowohl Wirtschaftsprofessoren wie Ansgar Belke von der Universität Duisburg-Essen als auch Bankexperten wie Lutz Karpowitz von der Commerzbank teilen diese Ansicht. Auch in einer der vergangenen Umfragen des FTD-Schattenrats aus Chefvolkswirten von Banken und Instituten waren zwei Drittel der Meinung, dass der Gleichgewichtskurs eher bei 1,20 $ liegt.
"Der langfristig fundamental gerechtfertigte Wechselkurs liegt zwischen 1,15 $ und 1,20 $", sagte Commerzbank-Ökonom Karpowitz. Allerdings könnte der Euro im Jahresverlauf ein Niveau erreichen, wo er nicht mehr überbewertet ist.
Euro  outlook  currency  FX 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
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