asterisk2a + emergingmarkets   17

Live chart: Age and population - YouTube
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august 2014 by asterisk2a
The Fed will taper because it doesn't have a choice | ForexLive
On Friday, I wrote about how Fed hawks are pointing to financial risk as the reason for tapering rather than the economy or inflation. Now there is more evidence. Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer for fundamental fixed-income at Blackrock (the world’s largest asset manager) was on Bloomberg TV saying “QE is too big. You’ve got to taper down QE, it’s created this tremendous distortion in interest rates.” They see 10-year yields moving up to 3% to 3.25% from 2.86% today. + >> http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/20/foreign-exodus-from-asia-continues-20-august-2013/ "We’ve been highlighting the floods of foreign investors leaving emerging markets and that’s not going to end anytime soon." http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/19/india-still-bleeding-as-sovereign-cdss-rise-to-14-month-highs/ "Foreign selling has amounted to nearly $12bn since May." + http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/20/ghosts-of-the-asian-financial-crisis-re-awaken-as-india-and-indonesia-tumble/
QE  US  emerging  market  NIRP  monetary  policy  Fed  exitstrategy  bubbles  carrytrades  Carry  Trade  unintended  consequences  fiscal  stimulus  bubble  frontiermarkets  ZIRP  emergingmarkets  Taper  carrytrade  equity  bubble  monetary  system  toobigtofail  China  credit  bubble 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Goldman Sachs’s MIST Topping BRICs as Smaller Markets Outperform - Bloomberg
MIST is beating BRIC: Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey; Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia especially are markets with rising domestic demand, young population share very high, relying on less on external demand (exports), as well as ongoing liberal economic and political democratic reforms. < (broad brush).

“You’ve seen a rotation in the leadership based on rate of economic growth,” “If you go back as far as just 2009, you’ll find people buying the BRIC story in a big way, and probably over-buying the BRIC story.”

MIST nations haven’t been immune from global growth concern. The MIST nations each account for at least 1 percent of global GDP and are likely to see that share increase this decade, O’Neill said. Of the four countries, O’Neill said Mexico and Turkey are the most attractive at the moment.

Open Economies
With the exception of China, all the MIST nations ranked higher on the Geneva-based World Economic Forum’s 2012 trade openness index than the BRIC countries.
competitiveness  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession  Turkey  Mexico  MIST  emergingmarkets  BRIC  frontiermarkets 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
PIMCO | Investment Outlook - Cult Figures
​- The long-term history of inflation adjusted returns from stocks shows a persistent but recently fading 6.6% real return since 1912.
- The legitimate question that market analysts, government forecasters and pension consultants should answer is how that return can be duplicated in the future.
- Unfair though it may be, an investor should continue to expect an attempted inflationary solution in almost all developed economies over the next few years and even decades.

[[For FX traders, a burgeoning era of inflation will ensure that high levels of volatility continue. Central bankers will repeatedly be tested and money will skip around the globe.]]

= Countries that take the brunt right now are Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Singapore, Brazil, Switzerland etc. countries where there is wealth and trust in institutions and or got natural resources (commodities, growing consumer), or is a creditor nation.
accounting  global-economy  global  imbalances  developed  world  frontiermarkets  emergingmarkets  BRIC  Switzerland  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  unintended  consequences  EMU  UK  BOE  ECB  Fed  centralbanks  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  economic-thought  deleveraging  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  confidence  trustagent  trust  politics  pension  pension  scheme  pension  obligation  pension  fund  financial  repression  economic  history  Europe  USA  lostdecade  greatrecession  GFC  PIMCO  new-normal  inflation  reflation 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Gillard's Concern at Aussie's Impact Shows 'Dutch Disease' Risk - Bloomberg
Prime Minister Julia Gillard highlighted risks posed by Australia’s ties to a global commodity boom, with a patchwork economy emerging from export gains accompanied by subdued domestic spending.

The local dollar, spurred by revenue from shipments of coal and iron ore to China, has reached levels unseen since 1982 in recent weeks.
Gillard’s comments reflect a challenge faced by policy makers from Brazil to China, where strengthening exchange rates risk undermining exports unconnected to the climb in global commodity prices. While emerging markets have taken steps to stem currency gains, such as through limits on capital inflows, Australia has refrained from such measures and Gillard said she favors letting the market set the so-called Aussie.
“The domestic economy is probably weaker than expected and that reflects the fine balancing act for policy makers,” “There is a risk of a Dutch disease effect,”
australia  boom  commodities  2011  China  Asia  emergingmarkets  bubble  ZIRP  unintended  consequences 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
BlackRock Sees Capital Controls on Hot Money - NYTimes.com
CHASING RETURNS

"It is difficult to reverse the falling trend of the U.S. dollar, prompting funds to chase markets that offer higher returns," said Chang.

A stronger local currency and corporate earnings growth will help Asian stocks to continue their momentum.

"Most Asian shares are still reasonable even after the rally we've seen in September and October," Chang said. "Investors have underestimated future corporate earnings a lot," he said, adding that BlackRock favors China and India stocks.

"India will be the next story for infrastructure," said Chang.
hot-money  ZIRP  emergingmarkets  BRIC  Next-11 
october 2010 by asterisk2a
Bob Janjuah: "We Are Trapped In Some Sort Of Horrendous Keynesian/Monetarists' Nightmare...." | zero hedge
Kevin's work also made clear that one 5%+ GDP data point, driven by inventory, was certain - he thgt it would be Q3 09 but it ended up being in Q4. However, we both have felt and feel that the prvte sector is in the middle of a long multi-yr period of balance sheet repair, and that the questions re sustainable real 'growth' could/can only be answered once we strip out and/or see the abatement/absence of UNSUSTAINABLE government largesse/bailouts/handouts etc. To us, once you strip away the policymaker and his period of peak effectiveness, where we are now much closer to the end rather than the beginning, what is left to take grwth forward is not very much at all.

I refer of course to the key themes Sovereign Creditworthiness; and The Great Battle between Voluntary Austerity & Deflation, vs Involuntary Austerity, Inflation/Stagflation, Serial Bailouts, Debt & Debasement.

MV = PY / EMU M3 was -.3% y/y in 09, means that even with +M, V was negative. It is a balance sheet recession.
Keynesianism  monetization  balancesheet  recession  richardkoo  private  public  debt  sovereign  austerity  default  globalisation  economics  M3  moneysupply  macroeconomics  greatrecession  UK  history  Japan  argentina  Greece  PIIGS  EMU  Europe  USA  BRIC  China  brasil  emergingmarkets  paulvolcker  competitive  competitiveness  Germany  Finland  euro  reflection  double-dip  reflate  developing-world  may  2010 
may 2010 by asterisk2a

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