asterisk2a + developed   35

Up to 70% of people in developed countries 'have seen incomes stagnate' | Business | The Guardian
Research by the McKinsey Global Institute found that between 65% and 70% of people in 25 advanced countries saw no increase in their earnings between 2005 and 2014. The report found there had been a dramatic increase in the number of households affected by flat or falling incomes and that today’s younger generation was at risk of ending up poorer than their parents. Only 2% of households, 10 million people, lived through the period from 1993 to 2005 – a time of strong growth and falling unemployment – without seeing their incomes rise.
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july 2016 by asterisk2a
Jim Grant: The Fed Turned the Stock Market Into a 'Hall of Mirrors' - YouTube
- bull market in equities not reflective of real fundamentals on the side of the consumer (aggregate demand, marginal propensity to consume). can not pick up the tab. inequality also does not help.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Public Lecture by Professor Niall Ferguson 2013-04-09 - YouTube
[6 Killer Apps - youtu.be/xpnFeyMGUs8 ] Degeneration and Regeneration after the GFC // interlude: Margaret Thatcher, the power of ideas in public office, in politics: Nature of freedom, economic freedom & other freedoms. Hayek & Adam Smith // The Great Degeneration (new Book 2013). Theme: The role of institutions in the creation and preservation of freedom. // GFC = "The slight depression." Avoided Great Depression like scenario by policy response (reflation) different to previous history. Talks abt equity market levels back 2 pre-2007 levels. EQUITY/(financial) ASSET PRICES. Bank Bailout! But NOT reached (real economy) escape velocity! Proper recovery! Under Keynes it should be an admission of defeat (bc lack of fiscal stimulus)! Is a sub-plot in the story of western decline! Great reconvergence of west & the rest of the world. // &! youtu.be/VVsP2X4kuA8 &! importance of civil institutions - youtu.be/8RB7Ah95RM4 bit.ly/1NqF7am &! youtu.be/kXTjj9NQKYo &! youtu.be/tyYTChxYAQ4
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Millennials Can't Afford Cars, and Are Fine With That - Bloomberg View
As somebody who wondered in a column last week whether people in developed countries were perhaps learning that they no longer needed as much stuff as they used to, and whether this might lead to big shifts in the global economy, I read on with great interest. [...] The changes in young adults' consumption habits have clearly been influenced by economic forces. But economic forces shape societal attitudes, too. I also don't see much sign that these economic forces are about to reverse. Both these things can be true: The median 25-to-34-year-old has less to spend, and is less interested in spending it on a car.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
▶ How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
credit great 4 productive investments 4 the future that will benefit u/me/gov/biz like infrastructure/edu/skills. but waste 4 pure consumption that dont increase productivity in the long run. Like consumer credit spend 2 replace a 2yr old flat screen. vs consumer credit 4 vocational/professional further edu 2 get a higher earning job (future higher income 2 repay the then debt liability & have some more/left over). Bad if u dont have later higher earnings from higher education 2 repay debt & just work in an underemployed placement that any college dropout could do. Thing is, college dropout doesnt have that debt liability that the higher education person has (reduced disposable income bc debt repayment + interest payments.) Women are hit double (gender pay gap) & triple (childcare long-term earnings loss). // min16 income growth important 2 keep up with debt repayment beyond interest. if not, we reached peak long-term debt cycle! // doesnt include globalisation's deflationary effects
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
After the Crisis - Mark Blyth - YouTube
>> what if rise of the banks (deregulation, easy credit, global financial markets - arbitrage, and making money with money) fuelled the growth of the last ~25-30 years. // min 47 3 asset bubbles popped // USA - 40% of corporate profits came from 10% of corporate sector (banks) // 30% of MIT grads went to banks instead of real world engineering and manufacturing. // underwater private sector! via credit bubble: student loans (now 1trn and still rising in USA and UK, future disposable income/discretionary spending lower than babyboomers because of wage stagnation, no wage growth) credit cards, mortgages, heloc (home equity line of credit) --- all will have to focus on paying back debt. // 2015 - us student loans 1.25trn - bit.ly/1KJ29uc + auto loans << bubble to eventually pop when collateral is falling! ie stagnant wages for 10 more years. and more and more cant repay their student loans. // 1:12:00 Bubbles move on; dot.com, real estate (property) & commodities, China,
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Thom Hartmann "The Crash of 2016" - YouTube
7:10 American Dream not abt being Super Rich, part of 1%, self-made millionaire. American Dream is abt live a good life, meaningful work. Launch children into world. Edu. Vacation. & Left over 4 retirement. having a voice; Workers Union. Health Care. Some little savings. Retirement Fund. // Wages did not keep up with productivity gains, if they had, minimum wage would be about $22! - bit.ly/1NZLVwc // 1trn$ in student loans/debt! that is what post-war gen had in assets! // (neoliberalism and neoconservative) Think Tanks; like Kato Institute, produce papers that are pushed to media 'getting our message across' (control media), also control over our justice system, & control over our education (our story, ie X Prof and read Ayan Rand). // Middle Class once invested in college & university. Was seen as intellectual class, society pillar. Till the last 32 years. // cites Fourth Turning book! // re-peat of 1929, = GFC // &! youtu.be/nUWaXZWhnqA &! youtu.be/polYrI4Us84
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Will Oil Cause the Next Recession? - Bloomberg View
[Private Sector could not drive recovery! Stupid. And rising (re-flating) asset prices like stocks did not inspire consumers. The reality on the ground is different than asset prices. Inflation targeting is a policy error in hindsight. Question is if policy makers (fiscal and monetary) as willing to admit this, or drag the world through another lost decade & generation!? ] Most forecasters believe consumers will spend the windfall, and thus boost the economy. But almost all of the savings from lower pump prices so far have been used to rebuild household assets and reduce debt. Consumers tend to increase their savings in tough times; they've been doing so during the six-year recovery, even as real wages and median household incomes remain flat. Lower oil prices, however, could come with a downside. As they work their way through the system, deflation could follow. Already, 10 of the 34 largest economies in the world have seen year-over-year declines in consumer prices. [
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Duncan: The Real Risk Of A Coming Multi-Decade Global Depression - YouTube
50 year long debt super cycle & credit bubble up-held. Put. // hasnt created inflation because of Globalisation = deflationary! [3bn ppl living on $2/day] Collapse of marginal cost of labour, offsetting inflation pressure of QE/NIRP/credit creation last decades. // Will eventually haunt people back once globalisation has run its way in ~100-75 years & the world is actually flat. energy cost 0, marginal cost 0, economics of abundance. // // min 23 AND because of this deflationary pressure of globalisation, excess capacity, etc lead to wage stagnation & or pressure to work 4 less (Contractor, Werkvertrag, Zeitarbeit, self-employment, Zero Hour Contract, outsourcing) and longer, in western world. Leads inevitably 2 being pushed into recession & avoiding that authorities always pushed button 4 more credit. Credit growth prevented western world not 2 be pushed into recession in last decades. 2010 Private Sector cant drive recovery! Massive Gov stimulus needed +10 years, not austerity!
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
«Die Chinesen haben einen Plan – und das ist ein gewaltiger Vorteil» - watson
[ focus on productive investment in the future - is hard to get going, internal economic re-tooling - social safety net, pension, health care - so people have higher propensity to spend/consume. ] Das Seidenstrasse-Projekt [massive integration of Asia/Africa into its own future, non-dependent on western world!!!] ist – obwohl die Chinesen diesen Vergleich hassen – eine Art Marshallplan. Sie sagen den asiatischen Schwellenländern: Ihr könnt Kredite von unseren Entwicklungsfonds haben, und ihr kauft unsere Produkte. China braucht seine riesigen Dollarreserven, um dieses Projekt zu finanzieren. [...] Zeigen Sie mir einen Plan für Europa? Oder für die USA? Die Chinesen haben einen Plan, und allein das ist ein gewaltiger Vorteil. [ 21st century economy, STEM, research, added value, productive investment, high end manufacturing type of the future ie bio, gene stuff, 3D printing, knowledge economy, added value services by educated & skilled workforce, social mobility, sense of agency ]
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History - YouTube
ideology/Career Politicians/Complacency/Cushy/non-ambitious/AIIB/comfortable //&! bit.ly/1cU2RVS March 2015, SELL & come back in 6 months - bloom.bg/1NTykGB //&! bit.ly/1NJvXai &! bit.ly/1VsYTEJ Outrageous predictions for 2015 were: China devalues yuan 20% [joining others in global struggle to import inflation] &! Corporate high yield market spreads double (higher refinancing cost, which zombie corporations do actually have no pants on as tide goes out) "High yield is a derivative of equity markets. If you believe equities are overvalued, so too is high yield," &! UK house prices crash (foreign hot money, speculative + shortage + Summer 2015 Crash + BOE Taper in 2015/16 = back to reality!) &! Russia defaults again // &! Fed Taper is a "margin call," [need 2 normalize despite its mandate/fundamentals not warranting a hike!] [...] a seven-year bull run 4 equities might be coming to an end [...] the rise (not value) of RMB/Yuan as it becomes free floating out of need] - cnb.cx/1MMyLSC
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Forget China - Oil Price Is Main Driver Of Market Turmoil | Zero Hedge
For the moment we are expecting oil producers to start to minimize their loses by producing even more oil. The oil crisis has just begun. // // &! DeMark compares China to the start of the Great Depression in the US, and when applying the 38.2 Fib retracement levels which have been breached, now expects even more pain for Chinese stocks - bit.ly/1NJdISb // // &! THINGS WERE TOO FAR AWAY FROM REALITY - Many indicators confirm that last week was remarkable and historic. Record after record was set, including the largest daily move, the biggest intra-day reversal and the most harrowing intra-day air pocket. - bv.ms/1O45W2i - legitimate questions about the robustness of the global economy [ contagion & overshoot - hubris and panic alike, good news gets washed down w bad news, extreme volatility still break markets, contagion still real & ppl are leveraged again (were complacent, institutional! investors!) ] market craziness. [ irrational exuberance that were equities ]. &! bv.ms/1UnLeMV
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Marc Faber: The Global Economy Is Entering An Epic Slump - YouTube
could see liquidity squeeze. have global credit bubble. Chinas own (2009-Put) did pop, probably just this Summer '15! // may lead 2 zombie banks, if they werent already if it werent 4 PBOC with huge amounts of NPL also within shadow banking system. bit.ly/1FaVAZt policy response could be 2 double down on usual mis-guided measures 2 keep status quo. extend & pretend. // World is still flush, thus currently moderate signs of impact of China slowdown - bit.ly/1EuMVXe - will take time. // &! leverage / margin trading was/is at new highs comparable to 2007 on both side of Pacific (USA/China) - bit.ly/1IxyRXD - so the hurt was/will be big! BIG! underwater. talk abt manufactured balance sheet recession // &! Willem Buiter: Only "Helicopter Money" Can Save The World Now - bit.ly/1Et5Bq5 - major blast of fiscal spending by PBOC in some months when the hurt cant be ignored any more. Will wait too long, will drag everyone else down. & bit.ly/1NYB5nQ &! youtu.be/3wvQDxJPhQ4 - Jim Rogers.
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
(2015) Professor Steve Keen explains why austerity economics is naive - YouTube
youtu.be/-HHJ3q2TxEQ (2014) // Unable 2 sustain long-term economic growth! Next headwind (ie China, Summer pop 2015) could put it back into the ringer! No internal resilience long-term. Gross gov debt still rising & budget (tax income) short-fall enlarged than it would be otherwise. // & talking Schuldenbremse/compulsory budget surplus proposal >> Rising private debt 2 make up of the short-fall of public spending, that is what its institute of fiscal studies has been saying ever since Tories came into Office with its austerity agenda. // The next downturn (private debt rise stop & focus on servicing it/deleveraging + gov keeping austerity agenda) will be even steeper & harder! // On path of stagnation, of western world; how u serve that debt in New Normal of <~2% growth p/a & <2% inflation & <2% inflation expectations!? // &! youtu.be/-3aBjFo2Fh4 // youtu.be/WSfe6uyO5yE & youtu.be/4TTuPwIzFC0 - China "Crash." &! on.ft.com/1Ixhw1a 'Crazy China Crash Possible w contagion'
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
International Focus - A History of Austerity - YouTube
fallacy of composition problem // short-term profit seeking and rent-seeking behaviour, underinvestment, no productive investment - especially long-term. // this underinvestment - public and private sector + market forces and technological progess will level the world and the China/Asia/LatAm rises up to the western world level while western world stays stagnant (loss of standard/quality of living competitively) because of being behind - software is eating the world, 3D printing, uncompetitive manufacturing and heavy industry/goods because of higher energy prices because of lack of investment in energy storage systems that are realized right now and backing off in investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency schemes (especially UK budget2015), automation, robotics, lack knowledge workforce to fill future digital/STEM/knowledge jobs, because of low social mobility, student debt, cuts in education - vocational - professional, as well as giving up on child poverty targets.
rent-seeking  austerity  economic  history  recovery  GFC  secular  stagnation  ideology  dogma  European  Union  UK  USA  2015  underinvestment  productive  investment  asset  allocation  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  hunt  for  yield  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  public  investment  infrastructure  investment  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  No  Representation  academia  academics  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Troika  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  Richard  Koo  Paul  Krugman  Robert  Reich  Joseph  Stiglitz  sovereign  debt  crisis  zombie  banks  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  bank  bailout  NPL  ECB  Fed  BOE  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  manufactured  consent  corporate  state  propaganda  corporate  media  populism  PR  spin  doctor  Eurogroup  EuroFin  democracy  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  social  contract  crony  capitalism  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  lost  decade  lost  generation  western  world  Developing  developed  world  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  policy  in 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Paul Mason: what they aren't telling you about work - YouTube
hollowing out // automation - vs - skill & problem solving (figuring out how to automate/put something together/create new) - vs - end of the chain work (low end, manual, repetitive, service...) // within the next 20 years, 47% of jobs in developed world could be replaced by robots/automation/machines // Future of Work is about problem solving, not putting (end of the chain) things together. figuring out the new, making the new, making something better, more efficient, faster, better quality, ... // and as it stands now, those who reap the rewards will be few. and gov policy, ie tax evasion, tax avoidance, tax code, fairness, --- gains have to be shared.
squeezed  middle  class  White-collar  Worker  Blue-collar  Worker  manual  labour  labour  market  job  creation  skill-biased  technological  change  practical  skill  set  practical  skills  skill  gap  capital  skills  skills  gap  automation  Robotics  working  poor  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  3D  printing  Manufacturing  industrial  policy  UK  USA  Europe  developed  western  Future  of  Work  knowledge  economy  Problem  Solving  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  domain  knowledge  knowledge  algorithm  precarious  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  insecurity  job  security  technological  progress  STEM  Makers  protectionism  Research  Revolution  2.0  Revolution  Universal  Basic  Income  tax  credit  tax  free  economics  of  abundance  marginal  cost  renewable  energy  Marketplace  destruction  creator  innovator  innovation  entrepreneurial  entrepreneurship  entrepreneur  Precariat  Share  post-capitalism  Super  Rich  1%  inequality  mobility  social  mobility  rapid  change  generational  change  tax  code  capital  gains  tax  growth  wage  stagnation  secular  stagnation  productivity  output  gap  shared  economic  interest  Wall  Street  exploitation  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Gesellschaft  identity  status  status  social  status  social  an 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why has Apple broken its vow of silence? - BBC News
re-pricing // would Steve Jobs have done thing?! Not back then. But this time is different. This time, Apples future growth is in China, India, emerging market, emerging middle class of the developing world with western aspirations - consumption (type patter, meat and fancy electronics with a recognisable brand behind it (so ppl can put you into the category of 'made it' - status anxiety)., not in the western world with new products. And I think he took this as an opportunity to transmit that and his confidence into the future for apple - through those lines, 'sent to a worrying investor.' Apple is one of the richest, most valuable things America got. America (Apple) has confidence into the future to sell to the emerging middle class. As much as warren buffet believes in the industrial future strength, re-emergence, to make products affordable/competitively through cheap energy that USA has access now. // &! bit.ly/1JjFsXx talking abt Apples exposure 2 China & Co. Reliant on.
Apple  Tim  Cook  Wall  Street  Jim  Cramer  China  fiduciary  responsibility  SEC  insidertrading  insider-trading  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  developed  Frontier  Markets  global  economy  global  trade  2015  warrenbuffet  aspirational  product  consumer  product  consumerism  materialism  status  anxiety  status  symbol  socioeconomic  status  social  status  consumerist  consumer  consumption  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  UK  USA  Europe  long-term  view  long-term  thinking 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
How China's economic slowdown could weigh on the rest of the world | World news | The Guardian
[debt fuelled recovery ] // In the year to July, China's customs agency reports that imports from Australia are down by $15bn dollars on the same period last year - a loss which is already equal to 1% of Australia's GDP, and many other countries stand to lose out to similar degrees. China's imports overall are down by 14.6% over 2015. Find out what happens if this decline continues for the rest of the year - or worsens - and how that loss compares to each country's GDP
China  2015  Europe  USA  globalization  visualisation  visualization  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  faultlines  IMF  OECD  Developing  World  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  trade  deficit  trade  balance  economic  history  GFC  reflate  reflation  recovery  economic  damage  economic  model  macroeconomic  policy  economic  growth  complexity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  developed 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
El-Erian: This Is Not 1998 or 2008 - YouTube
it is a repricing. a correction. prices got too far away (reflation of equity & co through ZIRP, NIRP, QE, speeches, plus hunt for yield & FOMO). It just happened to be China being the trigger, the wake-up call - very loud wake-up call - bc of its economic size and heft. (taper talks 2015 that made equity already nervous, and bond holders too, was too timid). Reality check. // Was it justified, yes. // In the long-run, we are all dead. And in the long-run things will, eventually, correct itself. // People may take now into account a new normal, lower interest rate environment, lower global growth, lower yields, lower inflationary pressures, lower dividend payments, more work that corporates (crony capitalism) need to do to squeeze out that earnings growth especially in the western world. inequality - low wage growth/stagnation - less discretionary spending on non-essential items (in the western world). & "realization that policy tools were less effective". &! bv.ms/1NFsFUn
reflate  reflation  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  secular  stagnation  New  Normal  asset  bubble  bubble  bond  bubble  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  recovery  UK  USA  Europe  dogma  ideology  austerity  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  Richard  Koo  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  savings  rate  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  participation  rate  unemployment  imbalance  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  STEM  industrial  policy  Manufacturing  competitiveness  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  commodity  business  commoditization  borderless  deflationary  deflation  Software  Is  Eating  The  Marketplace  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  mobile  first  Smartphone  Revolution  2.0  energy  price  Oil  price  inflation  expectation  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  productive  investment  IMF  OECD  developed  world  emerging  emerging  growth  investment  midd 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China economy: Weakened foundations by FT Big Read
Facing an economic slowdown with its old tools to stimulate growth losing their power, Beijing finally turned to a weapon it had avoided using for more than two decades. Jamil Anderlini investigates why China’s leaders resorted to devaluation of the renminbi, and the risk of a currency war // hot money also flowed outside into London and NY property market! in search for yield and diversified portfolio by the newly minted paper rich Chinese 1% - 10%. // Slow down hammered already commodity market and energy prices. And now fear of a real hurtful economic slowdown of China - western world panicked. Selling off world wide. and taking money out of neighbouring countries of China and other emerging and developing countries. // PBOC is willing to risk currency war, ie with Japan!?
China  QE  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  economic  history  2015  correction  distortion  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  fiscal  stimulus  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  bubble  bubbles  hot-money  infrastructure  investment  public  investment  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  PBOC  global  trade  global  economy  deflationary  deflation  western  world  globalization  globalisation  global  imbalances  secular  stagnation  developed  world  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  ZIRP  NIRP  Japan  Abenomics  Yen 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
US stocks nosedive in early trading amid collapse in global markets | Business | The Guardian
[ great reflation move since 09, finds another opportunity (this time because of China) to reflect. meaning to reassess reality. same with the collapse in emerging market, money going out of high yield & risk back to US/UK in hope of Taper and then came the hammer in form of China scare, people taking even more money out of emerging market/Chinas neighbours into the safe haven (perceived) that is the $/£/EUR market ] Dow dropped more than 1,000 points shortly after the markets opened, but it recovered slightly to be down 620 points, or 6%, shortly before 10am. Dow, which had suffered big falls last week, was trading below 16,000 at 10am – the first time it has been below that level since February 2014. The index is 14% below its record peak in May, putting the Dow firmly into “correction” territory – Wall Street jargon for a drop of 10% or more from a recent peak. &! bit.ly/1EQ31Fn &! bit.ly/1F1zPue - Summers argued for fiscal stimulus, debate about secular stagnation.
correction  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  emerging  market  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  2015  unknown  unkown  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  reflate  reflation  recovery  GFC  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  China  USA  western  world  secular  stagnation  Developing  developed  world  Europe  UK  Singapore  Asia  global  economy  global  trade  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  economic  history  Taper  Abenomics  Japan  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  Richard  Koo  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  deflationary  deflation  job  creation  job  market  participation  rate  industrial  policy  Makers  short-term  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  policy  folly  policy  error  PBOC  distortion  faultlines  Impediments  STEM  underinvestment  productive  investment  output  gap  productivity  Paul  Krugman  Larry  Summers  Ben  Bernanke  Janet  Yellen  Mark  Carney  MarioDraghi  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  austerity  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  fiscal  stimulus  George  Osborne  dogma  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  ideology 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Tough outlook for emerging markets - BBC News
[ this was no demand led recovery, it was a central bank debt fuelled reflated recovery (as was dot.com), especially in equity markets. but not fundamentals. unintended consequences of ZIRP/NIRP and QE. flushing world financial markets with liquidity, but not the real world. real world problems still exist. ] A series of emerging market currencies are losing value and stock markets across the developing world are in retreat. The more excitable parts of the financial sector - and indeed on financial twitter (yes, there is such a thing) - are talking of a re-run of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. [...] Emerging market currencies have lost value against the dollar and currently stand at a six-and-a-half-year low in aggregate. The Financial Times today reports that almost $1tn of capital has flowed out of emerging economies in the last 13 months. [ now money hoping for Taper re-allocate some out of emerging and developing world ]
China  2015  emerging  market  developed  world  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  recovery  Developing  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  ZIRP  hot-money  QE  NIRP  BIS  centralbanks  deflationary  deflation  economic  history  Taper  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  capital-flight  globalisation  globalization  global  trade  OPEC  energy  price  Oil  price  technological  progress 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan Exports Its Way to Irrelevance - Bloomberg View
[ Politicians as always will react with reactionary unimaginative policy, competing for the same pie. instead of enabling, supporting new pies to be created. ] But Abe needs to recognize, as China already has, that this is only the latest sign of a broader reality: Asia's old export model of economic growth no longer works. [...] All the stimulus BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda can muster won't change the worsening trajectory of the region's most-populous nation. That's why Abe needs to take a page from Beijing and focus more on creating new industries at home. [ the base of home grown new market/category/vertical also includes sound middle class to buy those products. demand at home. social safety net (security). and less inequality. progressive taxation. fight tax evasion/avoidance, monopoles, monopsonies, bribery, corruption. and politicians making policy for lobby. ]
Germany  Exportweltmeister  Japan  China  India  Latin  America  competitive  competition  competitiveness  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  differentiate  differentiation  Abenomics  economic  history  IMF  OECD  global  economy  global  trade  Future  of  Work  Universal  Basic  Income  tax  free  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  3D  printing  Software  Is  Eating  The  Robotics  automation  ownership  cost  of  ownership  Millennials  consumerist  consumerism  Frontier  Markets  Developing  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  secular  stagnation  developed  world  current  account  deficit  lohndumping  Lohnzurückhaltung  liberal  economic  reform  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  technological  progress  biotechnologie  biotechnology  on-demand  convenience  marketplace  efficiencies  commodity  business  commoditization  deflationary  deflation  21stcentury  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  error  policy  folly  inequality  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  mobility  squeezed  middle  class  complexity  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  currency  currency  policy  policy  w 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan's economy shrinks by 0.4% in a blow for 'Abenomics' growth plan | World news | The Guardian
the country’s main Nikkei stock market index was up strongly by 0.6% as investors expected the government to unleash more monetary stimulus. “Should growth remain sluggish for another quarter and inflation expectations start to fall, the odds of additional monetary easing would increase substantially,” analysts at DBS said in a commentary. Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of Japan’s GDP, fell 0.8%, as exports dropped 4.4%. “The sharp plunge from the previous quarter’s surprise growth was partly due to disappointing demand for Japanese products in the US, Chinese and other resource-exporting markets,” SMBC Nikko Securities said in a commentary. “Sluggish wage growth and bad weather drove down consumption at home,” it added. // no demand led recovery. debt fuelled recovery! little is fixed thus nothing (kogs) fits and runs by itself as one would expect. // [...] convincing people to splash out on consumer goods has been a struggle
equity  bubble  BOJ  Abenomics  China  2015  western  world  developed  world  Taper  QE  NIRP  ZIRP  economic  history  global  economy  global  trade  Europe  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Yen  Richard  Koo  Oil  price  OPEC  energy  price  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  GFC  trickle-down  economics  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  capitalism  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  bank  bailout  bailout  microeconomic  policy  microeconomics  behavioral  finance  deleveraging  debt  servitude  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Psychology  sociology  savings  rate  uncertainty  insecurity 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Obesity Epidemic Sweeping Across The Middle East - YouTube
Americas most successful export. Obesity (fast food and processed food) and Materialism (status anxiety).
Developing  World  sick  population  western  diet  western  lifestyle  obesity  epidemic  obesity  overweight  Frontier  Markets  chronic  diseases  developed  western  sedentary  lifestyle  Fast  Food  processed  Food  Chain  junk 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Greenspan: Be Afraid of Pending Bubble in Bond Market - Bloomberg Business
what is the new normal interest rate? // 7min long bloom.bg/1gteMeO - UK and USA productivity (levels at rate of zero growth) and output gap, capital investment inadequate - into unproductive investment bc of hunt for yield, bc of outlook of secular stagnation for western world and structural impediments, imbalances, and faultlines, and also because of fiscal and political uncertainty, and demographic bubble and ageing population in western world. future customers/consumers are not in western world, they are to be found right now in the developing world and frontier markets. // we are currently in an environment where we don't know what the new normal interest rate is, because of distortions and incomplete information:
Taber  bond  bubble  2015  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  recovery  globalisation  globalization  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  competition  competitive  competitiveness  borderless  flat  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  western  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  technological  progress  creative  destruction  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  STEM  developed  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  economic  history  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  Group  behaviour  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  financial  incentive  incentive  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  incomplete  information  complexity  OPEC  Europe 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Cancer: The challenge facing the NHS - BBC News
Lifestyles matter too But for all the emphasis on testing and treatment, there is a lot people can do. Four in 10 cancers could be prevented by changes to lifestyles. The biggest cause of cancer is smoking, but a host of other activities from diet to exercise also play a role. If we are going to improve the odds in the fight against cancer, everyone has a role to play. // bbc.in/1IbKnOS - A call for action on smoking and obesity - four in 10 cancers could be prevented through lifestyle improvements // &! bit.ly/1MjemFr - Outdated treatment, uncertain funding and failure to battle big causes of cancer – with one in five people still smoking – blamed for unnecessary suffering
Cancer  NHS  sick  population  western  diet  Standard  American  pattern  diet  anti-inflammatory  diet  chronic  low-grade  inflammation  Fast  Food  processed  Food  Chain  junk  diet  sedentary  lifestyle  western  lifestyle  alcohol  abuse  tobacco  binge  drinking  Developing  World  developed  public  health  policy  public  health  health  care  budget  health  care  spending  health  crisis  UK  USA  Europe  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  nanny  state 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
A Liverpool health experiment which just might save the NHS - BBC News
[ a bomb oozing, not exploding, just getting bigger & bigger & each passing year not tackling the causes - harder to resolve. ] True to form, the wise men at the top of the NHS in their headquarters in Leeds and Liverpool have identified the source of their pain: it's us. We are victims of our own lifestyle choices, demographically ever more numerous, and culturally driven by untameable expectations. We drink too much, we are too fat, we smoke, and we do not exercise and the average age of the population is increasing. The pressure is intolerable. A morning at A&E or a GP's surgery is like a scene from The Day of the Triffids. No power on earth could save us from ourselves and we are lucky to live as long as we do. [...] Unless we change the way we do things, the NHS in England will die. [...] [ FOCUS HAS TO CHANGE - from treatment to prevention and education. ] "The NHS can't cope: no health service would cope - anywhere." // intrinsic motivation by ppl to change for the better.
NHS  health  care  spending  health  care  budget  sick  population  chronic  diseases  Standard  American  Diet  Western  pattern  sedentary  lifestyle  lifestyle  developed  world  Developing  society  Gesellschaft  obesity  epidemic  obesity  metabolic  syndrome  overweight  high  blood  pressure  diabetes  heart  attack  stroke  premature  ageing  ageing  population  demographic  bubble  public  health  public  health  policy  Big  Sugar  tobacco  alcohol  abuse  non-alcoholic  fatty  liver  disease  alcoholism  Dairy  Industry  Meat  Industry  carbonfootprint  economic  damage  productivity  sick  day  mental  health  well  being  mental  illness  active  lifestyle  lifestyle  addiction  UK  USA  sustainable  sustainability  health  crisis  food  poverty  junk  food  processed  food  Chain  Fast  food  Whole  Plant  Foods  Carnism  Vegan  omnivore  subsidies  subsidizing  child  poverty  poverty  industrial  agriculture  Factory  Farming  livestock  Farming  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  Cardiovascular  disease  heart  disease  coronary  artery  disease  liver  disease  chronic  low-grade  inflammation  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  competitiveness  competitive  health  policy  medical  profession  medical  school  Nutrition  Free  Lunch  cancer  austerity  economic  history  nanny  state  stakeholder  shared  economic  interest  prevention  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  dementia  Alzheime 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Dr. Mercola Interviews Dr. Robert Lustig (Full Interview) - YouTube
trans fat = consumable poison (no safe threshold). Sugar not as bad, has safe threshold of around 6-9 teaspoons/day (women-men). body has capability 2 metabolize fructose. insulin resistance associated with weight gain >> energy storage into fat through liver. insulin (spike) is the instigator. // 80% obese population are metabolically ill (various chronic diseases) & 20% of 80%, their body is sucking it up but not till long (mostly younger people). 40% of 70% (people of normal weight amongst the population) are insulin resistant &have other chronic diseases (via metabolic syndrome). it is at a lower prevalence. but still! they ARE thin sick people (metabolic syndrome) "Tofi". their whole numbers are greater than obese sick people. // Exposure 2 western diet! // 21:50 intermittent fasting. when u fast ur liver has 2 live off liver storage. ultimately, better diet is abt 'get the liver fat down' ie by getting rid of the sugar. ketogenic diet // 31:00 Glycemic Load! // 36:00 exercise!
trans  fat  Big  Sugar  Sugar  metabolic  syndrome  non-alcoholic  fatty  liver  disease  insulin  resistance  diabetes  carbohydrate  processed  food  Fast  junk  food  food  poverty  food  industry  food  prices  Chain  obesity  epidemic  obesity  overweight  Standard  American  Diet  Western  pattern  dietary  cholesterol  chronic  low-grade  inflammation  chronic  diseases  heart  disease  Cardiovascular  disease  vascular  disease  coronary  artery  disease  heart  attack  stroke  aneurysm  Wall  Street  stakeholder  shared  economic  interest  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  crony  capitalism  intermittent  fasting  Ketogenic  Diet  Glycemic  Load  Glycemic  Index  Fructose  Nutrition  sedentary  lifestyle  lifestyle  active  lifestyle  lifestyle  medicine  lifestyle  identity  exercise  skinny  fat  thin  sick  sick  population  public  health  public  health  policy  health  crisis  NHS  nanny  state  education  policy  tobacco  Meat  Dairy  Carnism  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  budget  deficit  health  care  health  care  budget  health  care  spending  public  perception  public  awareness  public  debate  public  discourse  public  image  world  developed  world  Developing  policy  folly  policy  error  subsidies  subsidizing  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  economic  damage  medical  profession  medical  school  ecological  disaster  environmental  disaster  climate  change  carbonfootprint  glob 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Tax sugary drinks by 20%, say doctors - BBC News
[health care budget bomb that WILL explode, is already oozing ] An extra 20% tax on sugary drinks should be introduced to tackle the obesity crisis, the British Medical Association says. It estimates poor diets are causing around 70,000 premature deaths each year. In a major report on unhealthy diets, the body called for the extra money raised to be used to subsidise fresh fruit and vegetables. [...] "We're looking at 30% of the UK population being obese by the year 2030, a large extent of that is due to the amount of sugar we're actually consuming without realising. "The biggest problem is a lot of us are unaware of the amount of sugar we are consuming on a day-to-day basis." [...] The government's main approach to obesity has to been to work with the food industry to get it to voluntarily reduce calorie content. [ but a calorie is not a calorie ! stupid ! ] &! bit.ly/1JZFAQS &! bbc.in/1TGifpc - Sugar intake 'should be halved' &! bbc.in/1OlN6Ug - Slim ppl get sick too.
Big  Sugar  Sugar  Meat  Industry  Dairy  Industry  processed  food  Chain  junk  food  Fast  Standard  American  Diet  dietary  cholesterol  Western  pattern  sedentary  lifestyle  lifestyle  omnivore  Vegan  Whole  Plant  Foods  obesity  epidemic  obesity  overweight  diabetes  high  blood  pressure  chronic  diseases  chronic  low-grade  inflammation  chronic  stress  Cardiovascular  disease  stroke  heart  attack  heart  disease  inflammatory  bowel  disease  non-alcoholic  fatty  liver  disease  vascular  disease  coronary  artery  disease  alcohol  abuse  nanny  state  public  health  public  health  policy  budget  deficit  world  developed  world  Developing  NHS  sick  population  health  crisis  Alzheimer  dementia  IBS  disability  economic  damage  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  ecological  disaster  environmental  disaster  climate  change  livestock  farming  industrial  agriculture  agriculture  mono  agriculture  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  epigenetics  generation  parenthood  childhood  development  childhood  addiction  tobacco  public  awareness  public  debate  public  discourse  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Leadership  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  cancer  education  policy 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Global refugee figures highest since WW2, UN says
The number of people living as refugees from war or persecution exceeded 50 million in 2013, for the first time since World War Two, the UN says.
humanity  humanitarian  crisis  Syria  Iraq  Middle  East  war  refugee  refugee  Africa  genocide  G20  G  Zero  UNO  Security  Council  UN  UNO  developed  world  Europe  USA  Asia  history  uncertainty  civil  war  extremism  Islamic  State  radicalism  radicalism  Russia  diplomacy  foreign  policy  foreign  affairs  third  world  countries  democracy  Islamic  Law  Law  &  Justice  Law  property  rights 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
PIMCO | Investment Outlook - Cult Figures
​- The long-term history of inflation adjusted returns from stocks shows a persistent but recently fading 6.6% real return since 1912.
- The legitimate question that market analysts, government forecasters and pension consultants should answer is how that return can be duplicated in the future.
- Unfair though it may be, an investor should continue to expect an attempted inflationary solution in almost all developed economies over the next few years and even decades.

[[For FX traders, a burgeoning era of inflation will ensure that high levels of volatility continue. Central bankers will repeatedly be tested and money will skip around the globe.]]

= Countries that take the brunt right now are Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Singapore, Brazil, Switzerland etc. countries where there is wealth and trust in institutions and or got natural resources (commodities, growing consumer), or is a creditor nation.
accounting  global-economy  global  imbalances  developed  world  frontiermarkets  emergingmarkets  BRIC  Switzerland  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  unintended  consequences  EMU  UK  BOE  ECB  Fed  centralbanks  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  economic-thought  deleveraging  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  confidence  trustagent  trust  politics  pension  pension  scheme  pension  obligation  pension  fund  financial  repression  economic  history  Europe  USA  lostdecade  greatrecession  GFC  PIMCO  new-normal  inflation  reflation 
august 2012 by asterisk2a

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