asterisk2a + devaluation   35

Theresa May must take £115bn hint from Kraft Heinz's failed Unilever bid | Business | The Guardian
Warren Buffett and 3G were apparently surprised at hostility from Unilever’s board – but PM must use this bid as cue to form proper policy on takeovers [...] Kraft’s crew of billionaires should get out more. Did they miss the debates that have raged over rootless global companies, asset-stripping deals and the UK’s open-doors policy on takeovers? Hostility was predictable and justified.

Unilever’s board was always likely to reject the chance to be bought by a financier-led firm in search of another target for its job-cutting formula. [...] If Buffett and Jorge Paulo Lemann, 3G’s co-founder, couldn’t see outrage in the offing, they were astonishingly naive.
Brexit  British  Pound  £  devaluation  FTSE100  Warren  Buffett  WarrenBuffett  conglomerate  multinational  food–industrial  complex  debt  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  reflate  M&A  profit  maximisation  anti-trust  antitrust  taxation  tax  evasion  avoidance 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
Welcome to Poundland, where life is bliss if you’re a foreign buyer | Andrew Rawnsley | Opinion | The Guardian
The dramatic plunge in the value of sterling is an early indicator of the price to be paid for Brexit [...] Remainers who had warned that divorcing the EU would unleash severe economic shocks were left looking a bit foolish because those consequences did not materialise immediately. The Outers had a success during the referendum in persuading many voters to ignore the “so-called” experts on the other side and their cautions that there would be a steep bill to pay. [...] If making your currency cheaper was the route to riches, our streets ought to be encrusted with diamonds by now. [ it is in policy! ]
Sterling  British  Pound  FX  foreign  exchange  Brexit  inflation  CPI  RPI  Triple  Lock  Pension  Rail  Fares  working  poor  living  standard  wage  growth  devaluation 
october 2016 by asterisk2a
Sterling: A political animal | FT Markets - YouTube
fx vigilante. bond figilante. collective market doesnt like brexit. thus sells off. NO BUYING INTEREST! now £ is a political currency!!! // fall of £ is a painful solution to possible adjustment towards healthier economy. // E/£ parity by end of next year as we get concrete about exit with negotiations. this is uk prob not eu prob, brexit.
Brexit  foreign  exchange  FX  British  Pound  Sterling  FDI  direct  investment  current  account  deficit  currency  war  devaluation  budget  BOE  Mark  Carney  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  inflation  RPI  CPI  property  bubble  fiscal  monetary  policy  austerity  GDP 
october 2016 by asterisk2a
Brexit: Singapore bank UOB suspends London property loans
"With foreign exchange risks, even if the value of the overseas property rises, any gains will be eroded if the country's currency depreciates against the Singapore dollar," Mr Tok explained. // Chinese (and Asian) love their Betongold (most likely to be around 50% of their portfolio). Now in the hole because GBP lost 10%. But doesn't account for Yuan depreciation/devaluation.
Forex  GBP  devaluation  British  Pound  FX  Brexit  property  bubble  London  speculative  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  hunt  for  yield  Interest  Rate  Swap  Beton  Gold  Betongold 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
China's impossible trinity - BBC News
At the heart of China's problem is the "impossible trinity" of international macroeconomics. The impossible trinity - or trilemma - is the idea that it is impossible for a country to have three things at the same time: a stable currency, the free movement of capital (i.e. the absence of capital controls) and independent monetary policy. A country can instead choose just two of the options from this policy suite. The UK, in common with most developed economies, has free capital movement and an independent monetary policy - but not a controlled exchange rate. The Bank of England sets interest rates at a level it thinks is right for the UK economy and - as capital can flow into and out of the UK at will - the exchange rate is determined by the market. [...] But the bigger criticism is usually over the nature of the post-2009 stimulus package [...] But, for all the criticism, the counterfactual is rarely stated. What would global growth have looked like without it? [//+ deflation factors]
China  liberal  economic  reform  2015  credit  bubble  devaluation  currency  debasement  Yuan  RMB  PBOC  IMF  SDR  macroeconomics  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  QE  recovery  GFC  economic  history  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  NPL  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  property  bubble  hot-money  BRIC  western  world  global  trade  global  economy  deflationary  deflation  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  currency  war  currency-war  aggregate  demand  short-fall  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  student  loan  debt  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  student  debt  public  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  globalisation  globalization  technological  progress  flat  world  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  secular  stagnation  borderless  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  savings  glut  Impediments  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  Europe  UK  OECD  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Sozialer  Abstieg  working  poor  precarious  work  income  growth  deregulation  self-regulation  Workers  Union  wage  pressure  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  redistribution  low  income  income  inequality  American  Dream  USA  Gini  Super  coe 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The "Great Accumulation" Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World's Central Banks Has Arrived | Zero Hedge
PBoC’s rapid liquidation of USTs over the past two weeks has added fuel to the fire and effectively boxed the Fed in. On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank is out extending their "quantitative tightening" (QT) analysis with a look at whats ahead now that the so-called "Great Accumulation" is over.  "Following two decades of unremitting growth, we expect global central bank reserves to at best stabilize but more likely to continue to decline in coming years," [...] Less reserve accumulation should put secular upward pressure on both global fixed income yields & USD. [If the shadow actor in Belgium doesnt buy it up @rate everyone else is selling (divesting) ] [...] The current secular shift in reserve manager behaviour represents the equivalent to Quantitative Tightening, or QT. This force is likely to be a persistent headwind towards developed market central banks’ exit from unconventional policy in coming years, representing an additional source of uncertainty in the global economy. ...
bond  bubble  treasuries  Treasury  Market  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  China  FX  reserves  centralbanks  reserves  USD  Dollar  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  petrodollar  2015  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  global  growth  faultlines  OPEC  Oil  price  Asia  emerging  PBOC  Russia  shale  gas  fracking  tarsand  Canada  USA  Taper  Fed  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  monetary  system  financial  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Saudi  Arabia  UAE  Iran  commodity  prices  Quantitative  Tightening  QT  2016  New  Normal  uncertainty  BOE  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar | Zero Hedge
What might not be as clear (on the surface anyway) is how recent events in developing economy FX markets following the devaluation of the yuan stem from a seismic shift we began discussing late last year - namely, the death of the petrodollar system which has served to underwrite decades of dollar dominance and was, until recently, a fixture of the post-war global economic order. In short, the world seems to have underestimated how structurally important collapsing crude prices are to global finance. For years, producers funnelled their dollar proceeds into USD assets providing a perpetual source of liquidity, boosting the financial strength of the reserve currency, leading to even higher asset prices and even more USD-denominated purchases, and so forth, in a virtuous loop. [...] For the first time in decades, exported petrodollar capital turned negative. [...] the world is now beginning to feel the impact of the petrodollar's quiet demise. // &! Follow-on! bit.ly/1IGh4O3
petrodollar  OPEC  centralbanks  reserves  USD  Dollar  2015  Oil  price  FX  reserves  China  Asia  emerging  market  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  PBOC  Russia  shale  gas  fracking  tarsand  Canada  USA  Taper  Fed  credit  bubble  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  monetary  system  financial  market  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Saudi  Arabia  UAE  Iran  commodity  prices  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  treasuries  Treasury  bond  bubble  faultlines  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Alibaba Is the Canary in China's Coal Mine - Bloomberg View
It turns out investors were right about Alibaba: No company is more on the front lines of China's economic shifts than Jack Ma's juggernaut. And that's just where the problems begin. [...] After months of putting the entire weight of the government behind saving the market, Beijing appears to have given up. The fallout from that realization will have unpredictable effects on 1.3 billion people indoctrinated to believe Beijing can control any crisis or narrative. As markets swoon and gross domestic product slides, consumers are delaying nonessential purchases. [...] Mass austerity has only just begun. [...] it would be interesting to see how the government responds to "large and widespread investment losses that could lead to a notable negative wealth effect which could weaken consumption, as well as grievances against the authorities." [...] Macau's GDP -26.4% last quarter [...] Chinese gamblers stayed home. [...] Ma created a better quarterly GDP report than Beijing.
Alibaba  China  Jack  Ma  2015  credit  bubble  PBOC  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  hunt  for  yield  speculation  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  margin  trading  leverage  discretionary  spending  Call  Taper  Fed  BOE  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  market  intervention  bond  bubble  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  hubris  irrational  exuberance  western  world  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  savings  glut  correlation  excess  reserves  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  investment  banking  New  Normal  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  BIS  centralbanks  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  short-term  1%  Super  Rich  Privileged  Establishment  Toff  bank  bailout 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
«Die Chinesen haben einen Plan – und das ist ein gewaltiger Vorteil» - watson
[ focus on productive investment in the future - is hard to get going, internal economic re-tooling - social safety net, pension, health care - so people have higher propensity to spend/consume. ] Das Seidenstrasse-Projekt [massive integration of Asia/Africa into its own future, non-dependent on western world!!!] ist – obwohl die Chinesen diesen Vergleich hassen – eine Art Marshallplan. Sie sagen den asiatischen Schwellenländern: Ihr könnt Kredite von unseren Entwicklungsfonds haben, und ihr kauft unsere Produkte. China braucht seine riesigen Dollarreserven, um dieses Projekt zu finanzieren. [...] Zeigen Sie mir einen Plan für Europa? Oder für die USA? Die Chinesen haben einen Plan, und allein das ist ein gewaltiger Vorteil. [ 21st century economy, STEM, research, added value, productive investment, high end manufacturing type of the future ie bio, gene stuff, 3D printing, knowledge economy, added value services by educated & skilled workforce, social mobility, sense of agency ]
AIIB  China  economic  history  2015  credit  bubble  deflationary  deflation  devaluation  currency-war  currency  war  currency  debasement  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  developed  world  Developing  BRIC  austerity  infrastructure  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  sovereign  debt  crisis  banking  crisis  21stcentury  public  investment  personal  investment  underinvestment  education  policy  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  status  quo  Career  Politicians  social  contract  lost  decade  lost  generation  recovery  GFC  budget2015  Frontier  Markets  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  industrial  policy  Revolution  2.0  added  value  value  creation  STEM  Software  Is  Eating  The  knowledge  economy  secular  stagnation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History - YouTube
ideology/Career Politicians/Complacency/Cushy/non-ambitious/AIIB/comfortable //&! bit.ly/1cU2RVS March 2015, SELL & come back in 6 months - bloom.bg/1NTykGB //&! bit.ly/1NJvXai &! bit.ly/1VsYTEJ Outrageous predictions for 2015 were: China devalues yuan 20% [joining others in global struggle to import inflation] &! Corporate high yield market spreads double (higher refinancing cost, which zombie corporations do actually have no pants on as tide goes out) "High yield is a derivative of equity markets. If you believe equities are overvalued, so too is high yield," &! UK house prices crash (foreign hot money, speculative + shortage + Summer 2015 Crash + BOE Taper in 2015/16 = back to reality!) &! Russia defaults again // &! Fed Taper is a "margin call," [need 2 normalize despite its mandate/fundamentals not warranting a hike!] [...] a seven-year bull run 4 equities might be coming to an end [...] the rise (not value) of RMB/Yuan as it becomes free floating out of need] - cnb.cx/1MMyLSC
Abenomics  Yen  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  currency-war  fiat  currency  currency  debasement  currency  war  deflationary  deflation  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  credit  cycle  business  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  investment  public  investment  personal  investment  infrastructure  investment  rebalancing  structural  imbalance  Impediments  infrastructure  Career  Politicians  short-term  Fortune  500  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Wall  Street  ROI  STEM  Research  R&D  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  output  gap  productivity  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Robotics  3D  printing  Steen  Jakobsen  financial  incentive  secular  stagnation  Manufacturing  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  AIIB  Asia  European  Union  share  buyback  2015  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  developed  liquidity  trap  UK  USA  Europe  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  bank  bailout  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  ideology  dogma  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why China Had To Crash - Forbes
Private Debt/household debt 2 GDP exceeding 1.5x/150% spells trouble. Chinas pace of Private Debt expansion through credit was unprecedented in % terms compared to any other recent credit bubble (China Put, 2009) on.ft.com/1Ixhw1a // Could now spell balance sheet recession (underwater, servicing debt for worth(less) asset ie stock (+margin trading) or property (inland or overseas)) thus deleveraging of private households. --- Metropolitan property markets across the world have been flooded with speculative money from China & BRIC! Just look at last chart of % of household debt increase bit.ly/1va3oaw Its Russia, China, Brazil, ... // And China banking system & shadow banking system could sit on a lot of NPL coming 2016. Zombie banks in China, ups! PBOC commanded to lend post-2009! // &! bit.ly/1KWkTQY // &! youtu.be/-3aBjFo2Fh4 - Steve Keen (Mar 29, 2015) 'with bad models you can't see shocks coming!'
China  2015  credit  bubble  margin  trading  property  bubble  equity  bubble  asset  allocation  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  PBOC  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  underwater  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  BRIC  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  NPL  zombie  banks  private  debt  household  debt  Steve  Keen 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! bit.ly/1fQ2lcq // &! bloom.bg/1Euf6peh // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
Draghi  Put  ECB  ELA  TLTRO  LTRO  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  distortion  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  MarioDraghi  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trust  devaluation  currency  debasement  currency-war  fiat  currency  trustagent  distrust  Richard  Koo  fiscal  stimulus  austerity  fiscal  policy  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Mark  Blyth  inequality  New  Normal  economic  history  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  output  gap  productivity  UK  Europe  Germany  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  Thomas  Piketty  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  economic  growth  Rechtsruck  SNP  European  Election  2014  UKIP  AfD  NPD  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  babyboomers  Lügenpresse  manufactured  consent  PR  spin  doctor  propaganda  populism  Labour  Party  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  poverty  Gini  poverty  policy  coef 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China economy: Weakened foundations by FT Big Read
Facing an economic slowdown with its old tools to stimulate growth losing their power, Beijing finally turned to a weapon it had avoided using for more than two decades. Jamil Anderlini investigates why China’s leaders resorted to devaluation of the renminbi, and the risk of a currency war // hot money also flowed outside into London and NY property market! in search for yield and diversified portfolio by the newly minted paper rich Chinese 1% - 10%. // Slow down hammered already commodity market and energy prices. And now fear of a real hurtful economic slowdown of China - western world panicked. Selling off world wide. and taking money out of neighbouring countries of China and other emerging and developing countries. // PBOC is willing to risk currency war, ie with Japan!?
China  QE  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  economic  history  2015  correction  distortion  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  fiscal  stimulus  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  bubble  bubbles  hot-money  infrastructure  investment  public  investment  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  PBOC  global  trade  global  economy  deflationary  deflation  western  world  globalization  globalisation  global  imbalances  secular  stagnation  developed  world  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  ZIRP  NIRP  Japan  Abenomics  Yen 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Renminbi Rumba | FT Markets - YouTube
ppl surprised because western market was complacent. should have seen it on the horizon that it was a matter of time! // further competitive QE from Japan (new round of Abenomics post Q2'15 -0.4% results and Chinas three round of devaluations) will infuriate Asian neighbours. // commentary - bv.ms/1I0ucNL - tl;dr - its a correction (with some overshoot in less liquid market and emerging market (currencies)), market participants won't go yet on sidelines. &! bv.ms/1NqY7GS - At the very least, we have been long overdue for a simple 10 percent correction. And while the economic data has been on the mixed side, we don’t see the usual indicators of recession, at least in the U.S.
Yuan  RMB  China  devaluation  2015  Dollar  Taper  Fed  BOE  PBOC  monetary  policy  IMF  SDR  liberal  economic  reform  Asia  emerging  market  Developing  World  Frontier  Markets  Abenomics  QE  currency  war  currency  debasement  fiat  currency  Yen  economic  history 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Global economy woes spark share falls - BBC News
Fed released minutes from its meeting on 28-29 July, showing that one policymaker was ready to vote for an interest rate rise at the meeting. Overall, the Fed thought conditions for a US rate rise "were approaching", but the economy was not ready yet. Other policymakers remained concerned that inflation would remain weak because of the strong dollar and falling commodity prices, which act as a double depressant on imports. The Fed's key interest rate has been kept near zero since December 2008. There has been speculation that the Fed will raise rates at its meeting in September, and last month Fed chair Janet Yellen said she thought a rate rise this year was likely. Following the release of the Fed's minutes, US stocks rallied briefly but then fell back, while the dollar weakened on the currency markets. The Dow Jones index ended Wednesday trading down 0.9%. [...] The committee also cited China as a potential problem, [...] [econ growth has 2 be sufficiently strong, incl labour mrkt]
China  Yuan  RMB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  disinflation  inflation  wage  inflation  dis-inflation  deflationary  deflation  Fed  PBOC  currency  debasement  devaluation  currency  war  currency-war  Dollar  Japan  Yen  BOJ  Abenomics  economic  history  Taper  2015  recovery  labour  market  participation  rate  unemployment  structural  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  productivity  output  gap  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  secular  stagnation  UK  USA  Europe  BIS  Oil  price  OPEC  energy  price  New  Normal  FOMC  commodity  prices  global  trade  global  economy  headwinds 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Tough outlook for emerging markets - BBC News
[ this was no demand led recovery, it was a central bank debt fuelled reflated recovery (as was dot.com), especially in equity markets. but not fundamentals. unintended consequences of ZIRP/NIRP and QE. flushing world financial markets with liquidity, but not the real world. real world problems still exist. ] A series of emerging market currencies are losing value and stock markets across the developing world are in retreat. The more excitable parts of the financial sector - and indeed on financial twitter (yes, there is such a thing) - are talking of a re-run of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. [...] Emerging market currencies have lost value against the dollar and currently stand at a six-and-a-half-year low in aggregate. The Financial Times today reports that almost $1tn of capital has flowed out of emerging economies in the last 13 months. [ now money hoping for Taper re-allocate some out of emerging and developing world ]
China  2015  emerging  market  developed  world  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  recovery  Developing  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  ZIRP  hot-money  QE  NIRP  BIS  centralbanks  deflationary  deflation  economic  history  Taper  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  capital-flight  globalisation  globalization  global  trade  OPEC  energy  price  Oil  price  technological  progress 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Eight reasons why China’s currency crisis matters to us all | World news | The Guardian
If its economy really is much weaker than Beijing has let on, it would be alarming for any company hoping to export to China [...] However, the devalued yuan will force China’s Asian rivals, such as Indonesia and South Korea, to compete even harder in response; [...] fears that China’s economy is in trouble tend to undermine oil prices – and that probably means cheaper petrol in Britain. Of course, there are other factors, including strong oil production in the US; but global oil prices resumed their decline last week following China’s move, dipping back below $50 a barrel. In coming months, weak Chinese demand could force down the cost of many commodities, from oil to iron ore. [...] Delayed rate rises [ TAPER ] [...] Deflation, deflation, deflation [...] For now, a 4% devaluation in the yuan is more of a hairline crack in the world economic order than a seismic shift; but policymakers will be weighing up its consequences long after they return from their summer break.
China  devaluation  currency  debasement  currency  war  2015  recession  deflationary  deflation  Taper  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  secular  stagnation  globalization  globalisation  flat  world  global  trade  borderless  energy  price  Oil  price  commodities  recovery  economic  history 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's Devaluation Becomes Japan's Problem - Bloomberg View
The worsening economy, which voters hoped Abe would have sorted out by now, doesn't help. Inflation-adjusted wages dropped 2.9 percent in June, a sign Monday's second-quarter gross domestic product report for the may be truly ugly. [...] After 961 days, all Abenomics has really achieved is a sharply weaker yen, modest steps to tighten corporate governance and marketing slogans asking companies to hire more women. [...] If Japan offers a cautionary tale, it's that weaker currency alone isn't the answer. If Abe had used the yen's 35 percent plunge since late 2012 to good effect -- passing big reforms on labor flexibility, import tariffs, tax policy, supporting startups, reducing red tape -- Japan might not be facing the prospect of another recession. [ Japan's experience is a red flashing warning light for UK, US and especially Germany. ie uncompetitive Zombie corporations held alive with NIRP, ZIRP, and future new normal low interest rate environment. Where is growth? Silicon Valley. ]
Japan  economic  history  Abenomics  BOJ  2015  China  Yuan  RMB  currency  debasement  currency  war  devaluation  fiscal  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  policy  deflationary  deflation  globalisation  globalization  secular  stagnation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Makers  competitive  competitiveness  Exportweltmeister  competitive  advantage  competition  flat  world  New  Normal  Richard  Koo  Developing  Frontier  Markets  borderless  global  trade  global  economy  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  financial  crisis  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombi  banks  creative  destruction  Silicon  Valley  technological  progress  skill-biased  technological  change  Software  Is  Eating  The  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Future  of  Work  deleveraging  asset  bubble  Wall  Street  reflation  reflate  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  inflation  targeting  Fed  BOE  PBOC  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's currency devaluation could spark 'tidal wave of deflation' | Business | The Guardian
[3rd day in a row Yuan/RMB is devalued by PBOC (13/08/15)] “We’re all going to feel it: we’ll feel it through commodities; we’ll feel it through manufactured goods exports, not just from China but from everywhere that has to compete with it; and we’ll feel it through wages.” [...] China could be willing to let the yuan depreciate by as much as 25% over the next five years – “stone by stone, step by step” – in an attempt to restore the export-led growth that was such a winning formula [...] China [may be] trying to protect itself against the period of financial instability [following Taper by western central banks Fed/BOE] [or counter $ recent rise 21% & peg against $] [or fight home grown recession with kitchen sink] // &! bloom.bg/1gC8FFe &! bloom.bg/1WkMfZZ &! bloom.bg/1hy7O9l &! bloom.bg/1NpE4FI &! bv.ms/1IKB3fX // what is the new normal 4 growth in this global economy, competitive = keeping prices low = inflation & low interest rate pressure.
yuan  RMB  PBOC  China  devaluation  deflationary  deflation  UK  USA  Europe  Exportweltmeister  competition  competitive  competitiveness  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  secular  stagnation  western  world  globalisation  globalization  commodities  commodity  business  commoditization  Germany  Asia  Latin  America  borderless  flat  world  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  wage  pressure  productivity  output  gap  recovery  GFC  economic  history  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  Great  Moderation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  IMF  SDR  currency  war  disinflation  inflation  wage  inflation  Japan  Australia  Oil  price  energy  price  Developing  Frontier  Markets  Forex  USD  British  Pound  Euro  Yen  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  Bank  of  Canada  asset  bubble  macroprudential  policy  asset  allocation  productive  investment  underinvestment  business  investment  2015 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China devalues yuan currency to three-year low - BBC News
bbc.in/1WfUOFp // The weakening of the currency will also put the US Fed on the spot. In effect China is exporting deflation to the US - and so some will argue that the Fed should find an elegant way to back away from its recent signalling that September will see the first rise in interest rates since the Crash of 2008. Or to put it another way, in terms of US manufacturers and exporters, Beijing has done the monetary tightening that arguably the US economy needs. // &! tcrn.ch/1Tnj89s Apple shares reaction -5%, higher import costs. // &! bbc.in/1TrsssP - rattles the markets. // &! bit.ly/1JdPM8F - Der starke Verlust des Yuan deutete darauf hin, dass China einen Währungskrieg mit dem Westen provoziert. Doch tatsächlich spiegelt der niedrige Kurs die Schwäche der chinesischen Wirtschaft. // &! 3rd day, 3 devaluation move - bit.ly/1Ns1kmu &! Western central banks advised to resist [taper] & 2 prepare 2 ward off deflationary slump in face of cheaper Chinese exports - bit.ly/1DLIEy3
China  economic  growth  2015  yuan  currency  war  devaluation  PBOC  Taper  USA  UK  deflationary  deflation  RMB  Japan  Europe  Germany  disinflation  inflation  expectation  dis-inflation  inflation  inflation  targeting  western  world  BOE  Fed  ECB  BOJ  Brazil  Australia  commodities  IMF  SDR  Forex  Yen  USD  Euro  British  Pound  recovery  faultlines  global  trade  global  economy  globalisation  globalization  global  imbalances  savings  glut  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  monetary  policy  Oil  price  energy  price 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Yen breakout - YouTube
The yen has broken out of its Y118-120 to the dollar rut and is expected possibly to fall to Y123. The FT’s Leo Lewis explains to Roger Blitz what has triggered this, its impact on the country’s stock market and where this sits with Abenomics. // adding to yen short position. //
Yen  Japan  Abenomics  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  devaluation  currency  war 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Economists in Jackson Hole Say QE Less Potent Than Fed Believes - Businessweek
‘Economists in Jackson Hole Say QE Less Potent Than Fed Believes’ – Bloomberg This is some great Monday morning quarterbacking from the economists in academia. The wonks have now decided, with the Fed balance sheet at $3.65 trillion and nearly at its peak that maybe this wasn’t such a great idea.
currency  debasement  monetary  policy  currency  war  complexity  asset  bubble  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  reflation  unintended  consequences  global  economy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  BOE  ECB  monetary  system  benbernanke  debtoverhang  QE  NIRP  Fed  financial  repression  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  fiscal  policy  stagflation  UK  devaluation  creditcrunch  bubble  structural  imbalance  sovereign  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  Taper  deleveraging  Richardkoo  faultlines  balance  sheet  recession 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2013/speech670.pdf
UK’s King Last Speech: UK needs more Bank of England stimulus as recovery is not assured. >> UK's future still uncertain. Reflective in Cable (GBPUSD). While others do much better. >> "Despite this encouraging picture, growth is not yet strong enough to reduce the considerable margin of spare capacity in the economy. Nor is recovery at an adequate rate fully assured. The weakness of the euro area and the problems of the UK banking system continue to act as a drag on growth. So the need to support the recovery remains. [...] unemployment remains unnecessarily high. [...] Both nominal and real interest rates are at unsustainably low levels. There is an understandable yearning for a return to normality [...] Monetary policy cannot provide the answer. [... Banking > ...] It is insufficient capital that restricts lending [+ holding not enough liquid assets]. And, without a resilient banking system, it will be difficult to sustain a recovery."
unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  reflation  zombie  banks  capital  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  Discount  Window  Facility  policy  folly  Recapitalisation  liquidity  QE  price  stability  inflation  targeting  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  devaluation  political  error  imbalance  creditcrunch  Recapitalization  trustagent  hunt  for  yield  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  global  imbalances  inflation  debt  monetization  governance  balance  sheet  recession  Leverage  GFC  complexity  output-gap  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  too  big  to  jail  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  policy  error  debtoverhang  Special  Scheme  NIRP  trust  economic  history  confidence  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  MervynKing  toobigtofail  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Japanese Government Bonds Halted Limit Down; Yields Spike To 10 Week High; Worst Day In 5 Years | Zero Hedge
It appears things are getting a little out of control around the world. .... [...] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-10/overnight-yen-tumble-sends-asia-scrambling-retaliate >> " Sure enough, midway through the evening session, Sri Lanka cut its reverse repo and repurchase rate to 9% and 7% respectively, promptly followed by Vietnam cutting its own refinancing rate from 8% to 7%, then moving to Thailand where the finance chief Kittiratt called for a rate cut exceeding 25 bps, and more jawboning from South Korea suggesting even more rate cuts from the export-driven country are set to come as it loses trade competitiveness to Japan. Asian financial crisis 2.0 any minute now? "
currency  debasement  QE  JGB  monetary  policy  currency  war  Politics  lostgeneration  economic  history  inflation  targeting  reflation  devaluation  Yen  ZIRP  BOJ  competitiveness  inflation  Asia  centralbanks  Japan  lostdecade 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Why devaluation isn’t a viable option for Greece: Insights from a small open economy | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
If Greece leaves the euro, it can devalue its currency and start an export-led recovery – or so the popular argument goes. This column provides some hands-on insights from another small open economy, Barbados. It argues that for these economies that rely heavily on imports, devaluation will never be a viable option.

***
... and exchange rate depreciation imposes an avoidable inflation penalty that becomes entrenched in expectations.
Greece  macroeconomics  economic-thought  economic  model  economic  history  economics  foreignexchange  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  devaluation  Grexit 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
The euro crisis: Austerity is a pain. So is tight money | The Economist
What about, say, Greece? After all, it doesn’t have a central bank with independent powers to set monetary policy according to its needs. Recent research suggests that government spending has a large effect on the economy in exactly these circumstances, in which monetary policy is not set at the national level but by a supranational or external authority. Austerity will therefore hurt these countries: at current levels of prices and wages, aggregate demand in Greece is insufficient, and fiscal austerity eats further away at it in the absence of a central bank to pick up the slack.

Research suggests that austerity, besides its harmful effects in a currency union, is politically very costly. the emphasis should be on growth-promoting reforms, not austerity, when there are political limits.

Extent of Internal Devaluation to regain competitiveness - limited.

the ECB has to aggressively stabilise aggregate demand in the euro zone as a whole.
europeanunion  2012  Euro  aggregate  demand  devaluation  Italy  Portugal  PIIGS  competitiveness  debtoverhang  crisis  debt  sovereign  economics  politics  ECB  BOE  policy  fiscal  monetary  austerity  Europe  Greece 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
A Minsk Moment Update: Belarus Hyperinflation Prompts Government To Freeze Food Prices | zero hedge
A government decree said prices for fish, tea, coffee, certain types of sausages, cheese and a number of fruits and vegetables — some of which have doubled in the last two months — cannot be raised further until July 1.
Belarus devalued its ruble by 36 percent to 4,977 per dollar last week in an attempt to reduce a current account deficit largely caused by generous public spending in the run-up to Alexander Lukashenko's re-election as president last December. But the unofficial black market rate for rubles is still about 6,000 per dollar.
Russia and several other ex-Soviet nations are to decide on that bailout package on June 4. 
The International Monetary Fund said Tuesday that a mission would visit Belarus on June 1-13 for regular post-program monitoring. Minsk has not applied for IMF funding so far.
belarus  devaluation  currency  inflation  hyperinflation  2011  IMF  monetary  policy  fiscal  politics  corruption 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
At Asia-Pacific Forum, Geithner Defends U.S. Policy - NYTimes.com
He said that capital inflows into emerging markets were a vote of confidence in their fast-growing economies, and that a healthy American economy would benefit all its trading partners. “I think that confidence is justified,” he said, “and something that should be welcomed. It does come with pressures, and they’re going to have to manage those pressures.”

But Asian countries remained concerned about the effect of American policy.

“In the long term, there’s a hope that capital inflows will become good investments, but in the short term, they work to strengthen local currencies and that’s a problem,” the Japanese finance minister, Yoshihiko Noda, told reporters here. He said that Japan would work particularly closely with emerging economies in Southeast Asia to find solutions.
QE-2.0  Fed  timgeithner  G20  APEC  Brazil  currency  currencies  devaluation  2010  monetary  policy  Dollar  China  hot-money  Japan 
november 2010 by asterisk2a

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