asterisk2a + creditrating   36

EU referendum: Moody's cut UK's credit outlook to 'negative'
EU head Jean-Claude Juncker said it was "not an amicable divorce", but it was "not a tight love affair anyway".
Moody's said the referendum result would have "negative implications for the country's medium-term growth outlook", and it lowered the UK's long term issuer and debt ratings to "negative" from "stable". [...] "In Moody's view, the negative effect from lower economic growth will outweigh the fiscal savings from the UK no longer having to contribute to the EU budget."
It also said the UK had one of the largest budget deficits among advanced economies.
Brexit  credit  ratings  creditrating  creditrisk  FDI  foreign  direct  investment  UK  austerity  budget  deficit 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
Market turmoil: Janet Yellen warns that financial conditions have worsened - business live | Business | The Guardian
[ EVEN JUNK BONDS CAN'T BE SAVED BY QE AND NIRP ANYMORE. were able to rollover year after year but seems the buck has stopped, finally. ] “Financial conditions in the United States have recently become less supportive of growth, with declines in broad measures of equity prices, higher borrowing rates for riskier borrowers, and a further appreciation of the dollar. These developments, if they prove persistent, could weigh on the outlook for economic activity and the labor market, although declines in longer-term interest rates and oil prices provide some offset. // >> European high yield spreads have doubled since the ECB moved to neg rates in June '14. Solution? Go more negative. - bit.ly/1SIbMg3 &! Anyone who reached for yield in these securities from 2012-15 is in the red. - bit.ly/1QraRKp &! bit.ly/1nXUDBt //&! See point 8. ZIRP/NIRP is needed to roll over/revolve debt - bit.ly/1O2MRvl
junk  bond  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  creditrating  creditrisk  distortion 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
BBC Documentary - The Money Trap - How Banks Control the World Through Debt - YouTube
most profitable credit card debt customers are those making just the minimum payment. ... a credit card being a statement of status! retaining customers by upgrading them regularly w higher limits, new colors, new perks (they will never use). // unsecured lending - DEFINITION of 'Unsecured Loan' A loan that is issued and supported only by the borrower's creditworthiness, rather than by a type of collateral. An unsecured loan is one that is obtained without the use of property as collateral for the loan. // revolving debt // the higher your credit limit, the more you are likely to spend. // half of his income to just serve credit card fees and interest charges (no payments towards paying down) debt ... // banks lend irresponsibly bc they know they can get away with it, or somebody else will do it! because there is not regulation. no bank oversight. //&! The Truth about Payday Loans :Young, British and Broke - youtu.be/-yWxTvffbuE //&! Gambling/Betting Shops on Highstreet.
retail  banking  investment  banking  CDO  CDS  subprime  credit  card  debt  credit  card  financial  literacy  household  debt  mortgage  market  Payday  Loans  exploitation  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Bubble  property  ethics  moral  beliefs  revolving  debt  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  debt  Super  Cycle  student  debt  private  debt  status  symbol  instant  gratification  status  anxiety  socioeconomic  status  zombie  consumer  consumerist  consumerism  Protection  overdraft  materialism  crony  capitalism  capitalism  NPL  NINJA  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  bonuses  bonus  financial  incentive  incentive  creditrating  credit  creditrisk  credit  score  self-regulation  Bank  Oversight  financial  instruments  derivatives 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
"How The Investment Grade Dominos Will Fall" - UBS Explains | Zero Hedge
According to Citigroup's Matt King, it is now officially too late to save junk debt, which has entered the final stage of the credit cycle, the one where defaults for high yield bonds rise with every passing month. [...] we estimate that nearly $1tn of speculative-grade credits are at risk of default over the next downturn, as the stock of low-quality credit has soared. [...] These developments are a negative headwind for investment-grade corporates in 2016.
creditrating  creditrisk  NPL  corporate  debt  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  speculative  bubbles  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  leverage  junk  bond  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  monetary  policy  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  economic  history  Taper  QT  M&A 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
IMF warns of new financial crisis if interest rates rise | Business | The Guardian
Fund says governments in emerging markets should prepare now for a new credit crunch because of a 10-year corporate borrowing binge [...] “Shocks to the corporate sector could quickly spill over to the financial sector and generate a vicious cycle as banks curtail lending. Decreased loan supply would then lower aggregate demand and collateral values, further reducing access to finance and thereby economic activity, and in turn, increasing losses to the financial sector,” the IMF warns. [...] “Emerging markets must prepare for the adverse domestic stability implications of global financial tightening,” the IMF says.
credit  bubble  2015  Taper  centralbanks  IMF  OECD  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  Richard  Koo  Debt  Super  Cycle  BRIC  AIIB  World  Bank  recovery  global  economy  global  trade  globalization  globalisation  flat  borderless  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  FOMO  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  malinvestment  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  China  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  OPEC  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  western  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  austerity  divergence  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  Niall  Ferguson  Fed  mandate  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  bailout  banking  crisis  crisis  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inequality  Gini  coefficient  NPL  shadow  banking  zombie  corporations  junk  bond  creditrating  distortion  financial  financial  crisis  GFC 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: BIZ warnt vor Krediten in Schwellenländern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich sieht Alarmzeichen für Banken in vielen Schwellenländern. Die Kreditvergabe in China, Brasilien oder der Türkei habe ein bedrohliches Verhältnis angenommen, warnt die Notenbank. // &! Die Welt steuert auf den Bankrott zu (QE trap): Eine vorläufige Antwort: Das tieferliegende Problem besteht darin, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt auf den Bankrott zubewegt - und das wird umso schneller gehen, je höher die Zinsen sind und je niedriger die Preissteigerungsraten.
BIS  credit  bubble  2015  China  BRIC  NPL  shadow  banking  junk  bond  creditrating  banking  crisis  excess  reserves  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  centralbanks  economic  history  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  speculative  bubbles  FX  reserves  Turkey  Brazil  Developing  World  Fed  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Raghuram  Rajan  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  ECB  emerging  market  emerging  middle  class  AIIB  Asia  South  Africa  Latin  America  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  western  Niall  Ferguson  globalization  globalisation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  income  growth  income  mobility  income  gap  wage  growth  GFC  recovery  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Pact  European  Union  UK  USA  Richard  Koo  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  dogma  ideology  Fed  mandate  inflation  targeting  New  Normal  bond  bubble  QE  trap  liquidity  trap  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  property  bubble  capital  allocation  QT  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  digital  economy  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  World  Bank  IMF  savings  glut  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  Super  Cycle  debt  ser 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
World Bank warns on US rate rise - BBC News
[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4
Taper  Fed  BOE  2015  BIS  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  World  Bank  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Brazil  India  South  Africa  Russia  Europe  UK  BOJ  Abenomics  liquidity  credit  squeeze  excess  reserves  PBOC  economic  history  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  ECB  commodity  prices  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  petrodollar  QT  FX  reserves  global  trade  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  western  deflationary  deflation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  refinancing  creditrating  creditrisk  deleveraging  private  debt  household  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  low  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  downward  mobility  working  poor  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Sozialer  Abstieg  j 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Standard and Poor's sieht wachsende Finanzrisiken für Europäische Union - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Bonität der EU könnte sich verschlechtern - die Ratingagentur Standard & Poor's senkte den Ausblick auf negativ. Zu den Gründen gehört neben neuen Hilfen für Griechenland auch der Investitionsplan von Kommissionspräsident Juncker. [...] S&P geht davon aus, dass die EU im Zusammenhang mit der Finanzierung das Erstrisiko tragen könnte. [...] S&P senkte erst vor Kurzem für Großbritannien ebenfalls den Ausblick auf negativ.
Europe  UK  European  Union  creditrating  creditrisk  recovery  2015  zombie  banks  economic  growth  austerity  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  ECB  monetary  policy  policy  economic  history  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  political  folly  No  Representation 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Hedge funds tell Puerto Rico: lay off teachers and close schools to pay us back | World news | The Guardian
Report commissioned by 34 hedge funds says government had been ‘massively overspending on education’ despite spending only 79% of US average per pupil [...] The group of 34 hedge funds hired former International Monetary Fund (IMF) economists to come up with a solution to Puerto Rico’s debt crisis after the island’s governor declared its $72bn debt “unpayable” – paving the way for bankruptcy. [...] The funds are “distressed debt” specialists, also known as vulture funds [ Heuschrecken], and several have also sought to make money out of crises in Greece and Argentina, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the near collapse of Co-op Bank in the UK. // // they are implicit in lending money to a low grade borrower and took on the risk for higher interest rates. instead of looking out for long-term productive investment that benefit society, they go for the investment by click from a Bloomberg Panel, to meet their ROI at year end for their clients, promised in their annual letter.
Wall  Street  Hedge  Fund  crony  capitalism  ethical  machine  capitalism  Greece  banking  crisis  zombie  banks  investment  banking  economic  history  moral  beliefs  ethical  beliefs  ethics  creditrating  creditrisk  IMF  austerity  production  vulture  funds  Heuschreckendebatte  Private  Equity  Opportunism  opportunist  exploitation  Worldbank  World  Bank  Puerto  Rico  financial  market 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Konjunktur in EU: Analyse des ersten Halbjahrs 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In anderen Euroländern dagegen ist die Lage bedenklich. Vor allem Frankreich und Italien, die nach Deutschland größten Volkswirtschaften des Währungsraums, haben große strukturelle Probleme. Und in Krisenstaaten wie Griechenland, Spanien und Portugal geht es dank schmerzhafter Spar- und Reformprogramme zwar inzwischen wieder leicht bergauf mit der Wirtschaft. Doch die Gefahr eines Rückfalls in die Krise ist noch immer groß. || http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/eurostat-inflation-in-euro-laendern-sinkt-auf-rekordtief-a-986068.html - Neue Zahlen von der europäischen Statistikbehörde Eurostat: Die Inflation in den 18 Ländern im Euroraum ist so niedrig wie seit fast fünf Jahren nicht mehr. Das Wirtschaftswachstum kommt zum Stillstand. || + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/bip-deutsche-wirtschaft-schrumpft-um-0-2-prozent-a-986028.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/diw-chef-fratzscher-hoehere-loehne-und-konjunktur-a-986124.html "Investitionen!"
France  Germany  PIGS  Eurpope  sovereign  debt  crisis  2014  stagflation  secular  stagnation  stagnation  ECB  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  creditcrunch  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  economic  history  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  deficit  budget  deficit  liberal  economic  reform  NPL  zombie  banks  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  austerity  faultlines  divergence  Super  Cycle  lost  generation  lost  decade  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  hunt  for  yield  infrastructure  investment  investment  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  haircut  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  public  debt  productivity  output  gap  corporatism  crony  capitalism  coward  risk  sentiment  risk  taking  creditrating  creditrisk  working  poor  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  social  mobility  income  mobility  inequality 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Live chart: The low countries - YouTube
Timothy Geithner says no risk of U.S. losing it's AAA credit rating - http://youtu.be/0HDCvqgxrrE || Geithner: Japan's 'Lost Decade' Not America's Fate - http://youtu.be/fax8BIPKcP8 "the hope it's gonna heal itself, to hope you can grow yourself out of it" growing your way out of it" || +!!! Timothy Geithner Fired Robert Shiller? http://youtu.be/bIwBEYoSqKY >> economics has no humans in it !!! no real world example. Conventional wisdom so strong. "We've got too scientific." And anybody who is 'flaky' gets pushed out [Robert Schiller]. >>Wenn du dich auf andere verlaesst, bist du verlassen.<< || Robert Shiller: Speculative Asset Prices - http://youtu.be/oBXPOWytDMs "present value". google.co.uk/search?q=present+value+Robert+Schiller || + Robert Shiller: Nobel Prize Winning Economist - http://youtu.be/ABvtKGrIDUs "it can't be an exact science (forecasting) because of the complexity, mass data; uncertain, certain, and data that can't be put in numbers, storystelling -> feedback loops ...
bond  bubble  Japan  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  hunt  for  yield  lost  decade  lost  generation  deflation  deflationary  liquidity  trap  financial  repression  economic  history  Tim  Geithner  Timothy  Geithner  austerity  balance  sheet  recession  Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  creditrating  creditrisk  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  Super  Cycle  debt  jubilee  GFC  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  toobigtofail  TBTF  systemrelevanz  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  sovereignty  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  Thomas  Piketty  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  savings  glut  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  GDP  economic  model  Robert  Skidelsky  Robert  Reich  Paul  Krugman  consumer  debt  public  debt  debt  restructuring  household  debt  zombie  banks  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  BuBa  leadership  Democratic  Process  democracy  trust  trustagent  confidence  greatrecession  greatdepression  history  evolution  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  Software  Is  Eating  skill-biased  techn 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Debatte um die US-Schuldenobergrenze: Schlüsse für Privatanleger - SPIEGEL ONLINE
"Vertrauen ist das Fundament der Rolle des US-Dollars als Weltleitwährung. Daher erlaubt das Top-Rating der USA auch ein höheres Schuldenniveau als das anderer Staaten", schreibt etwa die Rating-Agentur Fitch. An der höchsten Rating-Note drehe man nur im Falle eines echten Zahlungsausfalls, gab Moody's 2011 bekannt und hat diese Meinung bis heute nicht verändert. Und auch Standard & Poor's gibt sich lässig und lässt wissen, ein Tanz am Abgrund wie derzeit sei ja der Grund gewesen, warum man die USA vor zwei Jahren leicht herabgestuft hätte. Alle drei verweisen zudem auf das seit 2009 halbierte Defizit.
debtceiling  Career  Politicians  fiatmoney  complexity  financial  market  barackobama  fiat  money  political  folly  policy  error  policy  folly  2013  complacency  creditrating  trust  fiat  currency  budget  deficit  confidence  political  error  trustagent  USA  unknown  unkown  WallStreet  global  imbalances  ratingagencies  Dollar  presidency  faultlines 
october 2013 by asterisk2a
The IMF on the Austerity Trap - NYTimes.com
liquidity-trap = monetray policy can not buffer economic, fiscal (ie austerity) shock to the extent it did when rates were lowered from initial rate. the margin of monetary stability improvement vs lower rates/QE/negative interest rates becomes less and less to the point of long-term consequences (ie bubbles elsewhere in a global monetary world, as there are multiple equilibria of asset classes that get whacked (distorted) when one or two players in the global multiple fiat currency world take out the atomic bomb and or untested weapons of monetary policy/theory
QE  2013  multiplier-effect  Politics  creditrating  trust  economic  history  multiple  equilibria  UK  confidence  structural  imbalance  trustagent  ZIRP  liquidity-trap  paulkrugman  austerity  global  imbalances  ratingagencies  GeorgeOsborne  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Großbritannien Rating: Entzug der Top-Bonität trifft Cameron - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Aber kein Volkswirt oder Analyst zeigte sich wirklich überrascht. "Diese Herabstufung sagt uns nichts, was wir nicht schon wussten", bloggte Tim Morgan, Chef-Analyst der Brokerfirma Tullett Prebon. "Großbritannien ist ein Schulden-Junkie, unfähig, mit seinen Mitteln auszukommen." Das Verdikt von Moody's werde keine ernsten Folgen haben, prognostizierte "Financial Times"-Kolumnist Martin Wolf. Es ändere nichts an der Markt-Einschätzung der britischen Konjunktur oder der Staatsfinanzen. Osborne hatte seine Ziele für den Defizitabbau bereits mehrfach korrigieren müssen, das Ziel eines ausgeglichenen Haushalts war von ursprünglich 2015 bereits auf 2018 verschoben worden. Die Herabstufung stand seit Monaten im Raum. Entsprechend moderat reagierten die Marktteilnehmer auf die Ankündigung von Moody's. Das Pfund fiel am Montag zwar auf den tiefsten Stand gegenüber Dollar und Euro seit 2011. Doch setzte die Währung nur den graduellen Sinkflug der vergangenen Wochen fort, es gab keinen Einbru
austerity  BOE  2013  creditrating  Mark  Carney  2012  economy  MervynKing  UK  ratingagencies  greatrecession 
february 2013 by asterisk2a
US-Klage gegen S&P: Details der Klageschrift - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Analyst scheint ziemlich baff. "Dieser Deal ist lächerlich", schreibt er einer Kollegin in einer E-Mail. "Wir sollten ihm kein Rating geben." Die Kollegin sieht das ähnlich - wenn auch nur bedingt: "Das Modell erfasst nicht mal die Hälfte des Risikos", stimmt sie zu. Aber: "Wir geben jedem Deal ein Rating… Er könnte von Kühen strukturiert werden, wir würden ihm ein Rating geben." Der saloppe Wortwechsel stammt vom April 2007, dem Beginn der US-Kreditkrise. Besagter "Deal" war ein besonders wackliges Hypothekenpapier - und die Analysten, die sich darüber lustig machen, arbeiten für Standard & Poor's (S&P), eine der drei großen Rating-Agenturen Amerikas. ist ein regelrechter Finanzkrimi: Gnadenlos enthüllt er, wie Insider lange vor anderen wussten, dass der Crash kommen würde - und trotzdem fleißig weiterzockten, um abzukassieren.
2008  GFC  creditrating  CDS  accountability  creditcrunch  WallStreet  creditrisk  corruption  subprime  CDO  ratingagencies  insider-trading 
february 2013 by asterisk2a
Euro-Krise: Moody's senkt Rating für französische Staatsanleihen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Rückschlag im Kampf gegen die Schuldenkrise in Europa: Frankreich besitzt bei Moody's keine Top-Bonität mehr. Die Ratingagentur stuft die Kreditwürdigkeit des Euro-Landes um eine Note von AAA auf AA1 ab. Der Ausblick bleibt negativ.

[...]

Moody's begründete den Schritt damit, dass Frankreichs langfristige wirtschaftliche Wachstumsaussichten sich eingetrübt hätten. Das Land habe an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit eingebüßt, erklärte die Ratingagentur in Frankfurt. Der finanzielle Ausblick sei unsicher. Es sei auch immer weniger berechenbar, wie Frankreich künftige Schocks in der Euro-Zone verkrafte.
PIIGSFB  austerity  FrancoisHollande  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  creditrating  France 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Standard & Poor's muss für irreführende Ratings zahlen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Ein australisches Gericht hat Standard & Poor's wegen irreführender Bewertungen verurteilt. Die US-Agentur hatte komplizierten Finanzprodukten die Bestnote AAA verliehen. Anleger verloren 90 Prozent ihres Geldes. Das bekommen sie nun erstattet, plus Zinsen.
subprime  GFC  2012  creditrating  ratingagencies 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Germany's AAA credit rating under review by agency
Core countries risk blowing up their debt/gdp bc of assuming PIIGS bailout liabilities/risk.

In reality, no new news.
2012  Grexit  Spain  creditrating  EMU  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  France  Germany 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Britain's economy: Into the storm | The Economist
Britain’s economy has its own home-grown problems, to which the misery on its doorstep will add. Spending power is scarce. Wage growth is running at less than half the level of inflation. Public-sector workers, who staged a large strike over the government’s pension reforms this week (see article), face a further two years of squeezed pay. Householders will be reluctant to dip deeper into their savings while their own debts are so high. That leaves Britain’s economy dependent on foreign demand. As two-fifths of exports are shipped to the euro zone, recession there will drag down Britain’s economy as well. Jobs are already being cut in London’s financial district, one of Britain’s more reliable export industries, because fees and commissions have dried up.

budget deficit was at 11.2% of GDP in 2009-10
The deficit will fall to 8.4% of GDP this fiscal year.
Britain’s triple-A credit rating seems assured
plans announced imply public-spending cuts will last until 2017
UK  2011  2012  economy  austerity  recession  lostdecade  budget  deficit  creditrating  GeorgeOsborne  OBR  output-gap  slack 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
ECB Moves to Prop Up Italy, Spain - WSJ.com
August got hot, downgrade of USA. Contagion in Southern Europe - Spain and Italy.

ECB intervention to prop up Italy and Spain is a watershed in Europe's handling of the financial crisis. The central bank has so far insisted that the main responsibility for action lies with national governments. A decision to buy Italian and Spanish bonds is tantamount to conceding that the euro's member states are unable or unwilling to respond effectively, turning the ECB into the lead firefighter—and the euro zone's lender of last resort. That could reshape the future of Europe's monetary union.

The ECB move "buys a significant amount of time" for Spain and Italy,
Yet the decision will be hotly debated both inside and outside the ECB. At least three central bankers from Northern Europe, including the ECB's powerful German contingent, resisted the move, according to a person familiar with the matter.
PIIGS  italy  spain  ECB  monetization  debt  sovereign  crisis  2011  ESM  EFSF  monetary  policy  QE  creditrating  USA  downgrade 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
S&P Lowers Italy Outlook To Negative
Standard & Poor's view of the increased downside risks to the Italian government's debt-reduction plan because of potentially weaker-than-expected economic growth and possible political gridlock that could contribute to fiscal slippage. The diminished growth prospects stem from what we consider to be a lack of political commitment to deregulating the labor market and introducing reforms to boost productivity. We believe measures to reduce the bottlenecks and rigidities in Italy's economy are especially important in light of Italy's limited monetary flexibility, which stems from its membership in the European Monetary Union and its limited fiscal room to maneuver because of Italy's high government debt burden."
italy  creditrating  2011  PIIGS  sovereign  debt 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Europe Locks Out S
Yesterday we reported that instead of manipulating home price data, China would simply stop reporting it. Fast forward to today and a few thousand miles west where we get a comparable report, only this time involving an insolvent continent and a comprehension-challenged rating agency. Just released from S&P: "Following new European Union regulations on credit ratings, we are converting our issuer credit ratings on these sovereigns and the ECB to "unsolicited", as we do not have rating agreements with the rated entities. Standard & Poor's  will nonetheless continue to rate the seven sovereigns and the ECB, and classify the ratings as unsolicited, as we believe that we have access to sufficient public information of reliable quality to support our analysis and ongoing surveillance, and because we believe there is significant market interest in these unsolicited ratings. ..."
creditrating  Europe  2011  PIIGS  fiscal  policy  monetary  ECB  EuropeanCommission 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Fitch downgrades Greece to BBB- with a negative outlook - Credit Writedowns
And as long-time EM observers, we would NEVER, ever underestimate the threat of contagion.
creditcrunch  creditcrisis  greece  europe  eu  ECB  2010  april  rating  creditrating  contagion 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
PIMCO - Viewpoints Telegraph El-Erian Jan 2010 Waiting for Better Times
There has been an increase in the average period of joblessness for those who are already unemployed. The longer that workers are out of a job, the more tricky their re-entry becomes.
The longer it takes for such commitments to materialize, the harder it becomes to arrest disruptive debt dynamics. And, once they get going, serial credit rating downgrades can aggravate already fragile financing dynamics. At that stage, playing catch-up on the fiscal adjustment front becomes even more difficult.
Also, we are witnessing a dramatic rise in the level of youth joblessness. Prolonged periods of unemployment early in one’s working career pose material risks to longer-term productivity, agility and prosperity.
And without sustainable growth, the first two challenges, which are already difficult, become even more complex.

There is no time to waste in supplementing cyclical policy considerations with meaningful structural responses.
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january 2010 by asterisk2a

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