asterisk2a + creditcrunch   114

(10204) Are We Destined for a Slow Growth Future? - YouTube
- shortage on the demand side. but demand can't be more leveraged and borrowed. ALL economic indicators point against a thriving of the UK bottom up (from household finances, are stretched thinly) //&! Gross wages lower than 10 years ago! Lost decade of earnings. In real terms people are NOT better off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0anqgXLvwko
secular  stagnation  Brexit  household  debt  consumer  UK  USA  loan  GFC  recovery  Productivity  output  gap  economic  history  leverage  underinvestment  banking  property  bubble  housing  demographic  immigration  working  poor  poverty  Austerity  Trickle-down  Gesellschaft  DonaldTrump  Donald  Trump  inequality  social  mobility  income  Society  inflation  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  debt-servicing  OECD  IMF  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  Fed  globalisation  globalization  trap  credit  card  creditcard  creditcrunch  student  auto 
july 2018 by asterisk2a
World Bank warns on US rate rise - BBC News
[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4
Taper  Fed  BOE  2015  BIS  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  World  Bank  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Brazil  India  South  Africa  Russia  Europe  UK  BOJ  Abenomics  liquidity  credit  squeeze  excess  reserves  PBOC  economic  history  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  ECB  commodity  prices  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  petrodollar  QT  FX  reserves  global  trade  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  western  deflationary  deflation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  refinancing  creditrating  creditrisk  deleveraging  private  debt  household  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  low  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  downward  mobility  working  poor  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Sozialer  Abstieg  j 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Capitalism in Crisis Amid Slow Growth and Growing Inequality - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Six years after the Lehman disaster, the industrialized world is suffering from Japan Syndrome. Growth is minimal, another crash may be brewing and the gulf between rich and poor continues to widen. Can the global economy reinvent itself? [...] The buzzword is "inclusion" and it refers to a trait that Western industrialized nations seem to be on the verge of losing: the ability to allow as many layers of society as possible to benefit from economic advancement and participate in political life. & http://youtu.be/hPPBYNKmuWc?t=3m52s IMF talking about over 70% of EU banks are Zombie Banks.
Japan  economic  history  GFC  recovery  greatrecession  2014  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Abenomics  Richard  Koo  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Impediments  structural  deficit  liquidity  trap  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  Gini  coefficient  social  cohesion  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  downward  mobility  disposable  income  academia  academics  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  deleveraging  NPL  zombie  banks  business  investment  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  balance  sheet  recession  creditcrunch  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  excess  Bailout  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  unintended  consequences  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TARP  LTRO  TLTRO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  IMF  BIS  Europe  UK  USA 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB: Draghi kündigt Aufkaufprogramm für Kredite an - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Mit dem Plan reagiert Draghi auf die schwache Wirtschaftslage in der Eurozone. Länder wie Italien, Spanien oder Griechenland kommen - wenn überhaupt - nur sehr langsam aus der Krise. Die dortigen Banken vergeben seit Jahren immer weniger Kredite. Und selbst in großen Ländern wie Frankreich und Deutschland stagnierte die Wirtschaftsleistung zuletzt. Ausdruck findet das auch in der Inflationsstatistik: Die Verbraucherpreise in der Eurozone steigen kaum noch - im September lag die jährliche Teuerungsrate gerade mal noch bei 0,3 Prozent. Um die Wirtschaft in Schwung zu halten, sollen die Preise nach Vorstellungen der EZB aber eher um knapp zwei Prozent pro Jahr steigen. Deshalb versuchen Draghi und seine Kollegen seit Monaten, die Kreditvergabe der Banken zu steigern, um so Wirtschaftswachstum und Preisentwicklung anzutreiben.
ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ABS  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  business  investment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  inflation  expectation  Europe  PIGS  NPL  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  IMF  France  Germany  trade  balance  2014  recovery  GFC  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  stagnation  Structural  Impediments  infrastructure  investment  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  inflation  fiscal  policy  Pact  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  distortion  unintended  consequences  complexity  asset  bubble 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Not that negative after all - YouTube
- nbdy is taking up the money to invest in his business (increase capacity, R&D, etc etc), becs there is no demand ... what is holding up the western world is the service economy - especially in UK and USA! - and then there is one particular structural impediment in Germany et al, demographic bubble.
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september 2014 by asterisk2a
ESM: Kreditprogramm ausgereizt - Nachfrage fehlt im Euro-Raum - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Bankenrettungsschirm ESM soll jetzt helfen, Unternehmen mit Krediten zu versorgen. Ein Vorschlag von beeindruckender Mutlosigkeit. Wesentlich wirksamer wäre es, das Geld per Hubschrauber über der Eurozone abzuwerfen. [...] Wäre es nicht besser, sich zunächst einmal zu fragen, welches Problem wir hier eigentlich lösen wollen? Ist Liquidität wirklich das Problem? Wohl kaum. Die Europäische Zentralbank legt dauernd neue Liquiditätsprogramme für den Bankensektor auf. Und was passiert? Die Banken wollen das Geld nicht und zahlen lieber die alten Kredite schnell zurück. Wenn Liquidität nicht mehr das Problem ist, wie soll dann ein Kreditprogramm helfen? [...] Firmen wollen keine Kredite, sie wollen Aufträge +!+!+!+ http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/18/ecbs-tltro-program-analysts-roundup/ +!+!+!+ ZIRP also never arrive for businesses.
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september 2014 by asterisk2a
Wirtschaftskrise: Deutsche Wirtschaft mit starkem Export ist anfällig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Typischerweise produzieren dominante ökonomische Narrative zuerst Illusionen und dann große Probleme. Wo eine Geschichte von Marktteilnehmern, Regulierern und Beobachtern vorbehaltlos akzeptiert wird, ist der Boden bereitet für Irrtümer, die uns am Ende Kopf und Kragen kosten können, wie ich meinem neuen Buch argumentiere. >> Die Politik des billigen Geldes verzerrt die Wirtschaftsstrukturen .... - die deutsche Wirtschaft unterfinanziert & Dass die Politik des ultrabilligen Geldes die Wirtschaftsstrukturen verzerrt, auch hierzulande. [CreditCrunch/transmission mechanism broken/hunt for yield/betongold/no-investments] +++ die Digitalisierung auch die produktionslastige deutsche Wirtschaft fundamental durcheinanderwirbeln wird. [Year of Code/Education Policy/Human Capital - high ed imigrants/Mobile Creatives/Share Economy] +++ Spiegel 37/2014 "Deutschland der Scheinriese" Cover Story
GFC  bubble  property  bubble  bubbles  economic  history  economics  society  storytelling  narrative  journalism  journalismus  PIGS  UK  USA  Germany  Exportweltmeister  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  exports  export  Europe  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  competitiveness  competitive  competitive  advantage  comparative  advantage  2014  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Policy  Makers  error  folly  trust  trustagent  confidence  accountability  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  monetary  fiscal  LTRO  OMT  ABS  unconventional  monetary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  distortion  Wall  Street  centralbanks  IMF  IBS  liquidity  trap  creditcrunch  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  blackswan  Black  Swan  Betongold  Beton  Gold  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  Year  of  Code  education  Public  Policy  hunt  for  yield  human  capital  immigration  demographics  demographic  bubble  demography 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB cuts rates and launches stimulus programme
1-Day Before: http://youtu.be/_6D_xVeoIXs "ECB faces crunch on deflation threat" +++ The ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05%, and introduced new stimulus measures. The ECB had earlier cut its rate from 0.25% to 0.15% in June, and also became the first major central bank to introduce negative interest rates. It will also launch an asset purchase programme, which will buy debt products from banks. It is hoped this move will add liquidity to the financial system and revive lending. [...] "[A] last roll of the dice". "The ECB has now almost exhausted its ammunition for preventing the Eurozone sliding into a devastating deflationary, contractionary spiral," +++ Analysis: http://youtu.be/IErml4SmKmE "European banks – Work those ABS" +++ bit.ly/1A6pmLU - France and Friends: Merkel Increasingly Isolated on Austerity "Europe ... is threatened with lasting weak growth should the deficit rules continue to be strictly interpreted. [ BuBa demands higher wages, ECB fiscal stimulus ]."
ABS  OMT  LTRO  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  PIGS  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  IMF  Germany  BuBa  deflation  deflationary  communication  zombie  banks  confidence  trustagent  trust  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  policy  QE  bond  bubble  deleveraging  lost  decade  lost  generation  SME  SMB  Mittelstand  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  economic  history  debtoverhang  NPL  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  riskaversion  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  secular  stagnation  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  Career  Politicians  inflation  expectation  stagnation  Betongold  Beton  Gold  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  France  liberal  economic  reform  Stability  Pact  Italy  academics  academia  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  wage  growth  wage  inflation  fiscal  stimulus  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Sick  Man  of  Europe  infrastructure  investment  investment  business  investment  labor  market  reform  recovery 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Konjunktur in EU: Analyse des ersten Halbjahrs 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In anderen Euroländern dagegen ist die Lage bedenklich. Vor allem Frankreich und Italien, die nach Deutschland größten Volkswirtschaften des Währungsraums, haben große strukturelle Probleme. Und in Krisenstaaten wie Griechenland, Spanien und Portugal geht es dank schmerzhafter Spar- und Reformprogramme zwar inzwischen wieder leicht bergauf mit der Wirtschaft. Doch die Gefahr eines Rückfalls in die Krise ist noch immer groß. || http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/eurostat-inflation-in-euro-laendern-sinkt-auf-rekordtief-a-986068.html - Neue Zahlen von der europäischen Statistikbehörde Eurostat: Die Inflation in den 18 Ländern im Euroraum ist so niedrig wie seit fast fünf Jahren nicht mehr. Das Wirtschaftswachstum kommt zum Stillstand. || + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/bip-deutsche-wirtschaft-schrumpft-um-0-2-prozent-a-986028.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/diw-chef-fratzscher-hoehere-loehne-und-konjunktur-a-986124.html "Investitionen!"
France  Germany  PIGS  Eurpope  sovereign  debt  crisis  2014  stagflation  secular  stagnation  stagnation  ECB  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  creditcrunch  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  economic  history  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  deficit  budget  deficit  liberal  economic  reform  NPL  zombie  banks  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  austerity  faultlines  divergence  Super  Cycle  lost  generation  lost  decade  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  hunt  for  yield  infrastructure  investment  investment  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  haircut  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  public  debt  productivity  output  gap  corporatism  crony  capitalism  coward  risk  sentiment  risk  taking  creditrating  creditrisk  working  poor  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  social  mobility  income  mobility  inequality 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Live chart: The low countries - YouTube
Timothy Geithner says no risk of U.S. losing it's AAA credit rating - http://youtu.be/0HDCvqgxrrE || Geithner: Japan's 'Lost Decade' Not America's Fate - http://youtu.be/fax8BIPKcP8 "the hope it's gonna heal itself, to hope you can grow yourself out of it" growing your way out of it" || +!!! Timothy Geithner Fired Robert Shiller? http://youtu.be/bIwBEYoSqKY >> economics has no humans in it !!! no real world example. Conventional wisdom so strong. "We've got too scientific." And anybody who is 'flaky' gets pushed out [Robert Schiller]. >>Wenn du dich auf andere verlaesst, bist du verlassen.<< || Robert Shiller: Speculative Asset Prices - http://youtu.be/oBXPOWytDMs "present value". google.co.uk/search?q=present+value+Robert+Schiller || + Robert Shiller: Nobel Prize Winning Economist - http://youtu.be/ABvtKGrIDUs "it can't be an exact science (forecasting) because of the complexity, mass data; uncertain, certain, and data that can't be put in numbers, storystelling -> feedback loops ...
bond  bubble  Japan  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  hunt  for  yield  lost  decade  lost  generation  deflation  deflationary  liquidity  trap  financial  repression  economic  history  Tim  Geithner  Timothy  Geithner  austerity  balance  sheet  recession  Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  creditrating  creditrisk  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  Super  Cycle  debt  jubilee  GFC  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  toobigtofail  TBTF  systemrelevanz  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  sovereignty  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  Thomas  Piketty  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  savings  glut  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  GDP  economic  model  Robert  Skidelsky  Robert  Reich  Paul  Krugman  consumer  debt  public  debt  debt  restructuring  household  debt  zombie  banks  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  BuBa  leadership  Democratic  Process  democracy  trust  trustagent  confidence  greatrecession  greatdepression  history  evolution  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  Software  Is  Eating  skill-biased  techn 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Kreditklemme trotz EZB-Programmen: Die Banken sind unschuldig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Milan und Sufi sind nicht die ersten, die auf diese Idee kamen. Richard Koo aus Japan entwickelte schon in den neunziger Jahre die These von einer Bilanz-Rezession. Wenn Länder, Firmen und Haushalte überschuldet sind, dann wollen sie sich einfach nur noch entschulden, egal wie günstig die Kredite sind. Koo warnte davor, dass alle gleichzeitig die Schulden abbauen. In Japan hörte man auf ihn. Dort entschuldeten sich die Firmen und die Haushalte, und es verschuldete sich der Staat. In Europa bauen alle ihre Schulden gleichzeitig ab: Staat, Unternehmen, Haushalte. Koo glaubt daher auch, dass wir in eine weit schlimmere Lage geraten werden als Japan. Wir sind auf Deflation programmiert. Koos Thesen sind plausibel. Sie sind aber keine fundierte ökonomische Analyse. Genau das haben jetzt Milan und Sufi geliefert - zumindest für die USA. Wenn sich diese Ergebnisse auch bei uns bestätigen sollten, dann hieße das: Wir machen in Europa so ziemlich alles falsch.
Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  Japan  deflation  deflationary  USA  UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  economic  history  GFC  sovereign  crisis  consumer  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  QE  monetization  monetisation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  monetary  transmission  mechanism  service  deleveraging  2014  recovery  greatrecession  greatdepression  Europe  PIGS  Neuverschuldung  Germany  austerity  IMF  book  lost  generation  lost  decade  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB senkt Leitzins und beschließt Minuszinsen für Banken - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat ihren Leitzins auf ein Rekordtief gesenkt und erstmals einen negativen Einlagensatz beschlossen. Angesichts der zuletzt sehr niedrigen Inflationsrate wird der Zins, zu dem sich die Geschäftsbanken bei der Notenbank Geld leihen können, um 0,10 Punkte auf 0,15 Prozent gesenkt, wie die EZB am Donnerstag nach ihrer Ratssitzung in Frankfurt mitteilte. Der Einlagensatz, zu dem Banken kurzfristig Geld bei der Notenbank parken können, wird erstmals in den negativen Bereich gedrückt. Er sinkt von bisher null Prozent auf minus 0,10 Prozent. Der Zins für kurzfristige Ausleihungen bei der Notenbank vermindert sich von 0,75 auf 0,40 Prozent. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-entscheidung-kredite-und-senkung-des-leitzins-a-973657.html ""Die Banken leiden nicht unter vermeintlich zu hohen Notenbankzinsen, sondern unter dem hohen Bestand fauler Kredite, an dem Negativzinsen nichts ändern." + !! http://youtu.be/kKO_yxP3dyQ !!
deflation  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  ECB  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  2014  ZIRP  OMT  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  deposit  levy  New  Normal  financial  repression  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  Europe  Germany  faultlines  recovery  policy  error  policy  folly  Makers  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  GFC  lost  decade  lost  generation  long-term  unemployment  banking  union  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  2015  NPL  non-performing  loan  economic  history  LTRO  assetbackedsecurities  Sterilization 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Die Gefahren des Jahres 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Beide Seiten haben Grund zu Pessimismus. Die strukturkonservative Bundeskanzlerin sieht mit Schrecken, dass Frankreich, Spanien und Italien keineswegs geneigt sind, deutsch zu werden. Euro-föderale Kritiker wie ich sind darüber enttäuscht, dass es weder eine Fiskalunion noch eine echte Bankenunion geben wird. Für uns ist das, was letzte Woche beschlossen wurde, keine Bankenunion, sondern nur ein schlechter Witz. Jedes Land bleibt für seinen eigenen Bankensektor verantwortlich. Das vorrangige ökonomische Ziel, die Risiken von Banken und Staaten zu trennen, ist dahin. Stattdessen ist die Bankenunion nur noch ein komplizierter administrativer Prozess.
Europe  europeanunion  banking  union  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  austerity  2013  2014  France  Spain  Italy  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  Japan  economic  history  history  Angela  Merkel  political  folly  political  error  FrancoisHollande  policy  error  policy  folly  ECB  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richardkoo  reflation  deflationary  deflation  inflation  ZIRP  QE  LTRO  unintended  consequences  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  unconventional  monetary  policy 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
Economists in Jackson Hole Say QE Less Potent Than Fed Believes - Businessweek
‘Economists in Jackson Hole Say QE Less Potent Than Fed Believes’ – Bloomberg This is some great Monday morning quarterbacking from the economists in academia. The wonks have now decided, with the Fed balance sheet at $3.65 trillion and nearly at its peak that maybe this wasn’t such a great idea.
currency  debasement  monetary  policy  currency  war  complexity  asset  bubble  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  reflation  unintended  consequences  global  economy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  BOE  ECB  monetary  system  benbernanke  debtoverhang  QE  NIRP  Fed  financial  repression  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  fiscal  policy  stagflation  UK  devaluation  creditcrunch  bubble  structural  imbalance  sovereign  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  Taper  deleveraging  Richardkoo  faultlines  balance  sheet  recession 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Ökonomen starten Aufruf zur Unterstützung der EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Das sehen allerdings nicht alle Ökonomen so. Ifo-Präsident Sinn jedenfalls reagierte verhalten auf den Aufruf: "Niemand bestreitet, dass sich die Kapitalmärkte beruhigen lassen, wenn man den Käufern der südlichen Staatspapiere mit Hilfe des OMT kostenlosen Versicherungsschutz anbietet", sagte er SPIEGEL ONLINE. Eine solche Lösung sei zwar "für Schuldner und Gläubiger gleichermaßen attraktiv", allerdings nicht für die Steuerzahler der bislang "noch gesunden Länder Europas". Diese müssten am Ende die Verluste der EZB tragen.
monetary  policy  complexity  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  deflation  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  policy  error  lostdecade  policy  folly  QE  LTRO  OMT  NIRP  2013  lostgeneration  economic  history  PIGS  debt  monetisation  political  error  creditcrunch  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  inflation  debt  monetization 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
The Reason For China's Epic 1 Trillion Yuan Deleveraging: The Biggest Housing Bubble Ever | Zero Hedge
We shall see how much they approve when the massive deleveraging results in a 3% GDP print as we warned previously, crushing their year end bonuses in the process. [...] The country is about to undergo an unprecedented deleveraging that could amount to over CNY1 trillion in order to force reallocate capital in a more efficient basis. That's right: a massive deleveraging coming dead ahead in China just in time to shock the market still reeling from the threat of the Fed's tapering. [...] So there you have it: no matter what China has attempted, no matter how much it has punished the Shanghai Composite, it has been completely unable to offset the endogenous and/or exogenous (Fed, ECB, BOJ hot money) credit from sending the Chinese housing bubble into absolutely stratospheric levels. [...] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10164580/Chinese-banking-a-Wild-West-in-the-Far-East.html
currency  debasement  real  estate  bubble  monetary  policy  currency  war  capital  allocation  stimulus  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  fiscal  stimulus  BOE  banking  crisis  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  shadow  economy  BOJ  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  hot  money  China  credit  bubble  banking  system  NIRP  2013  recession  Fed  shadowbanking  economic  history  NPL  shadow  banking  fiscal  policy  bubbles  property  bubble  creditcrunch  bad  bank  ZIRP  USA  Taper  zombie  bank  deleveraging  toobigtofail  PBOC  Muddy  Waters  Research  faultlines 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Politik der niedrigen Zinsen: Nordstaaten verhinderten Zinssenkung - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Geldpolitiker der Nordländer in der EU beharren auf ihrer Linie: Gemeinsam verhinderten Bundesbank-Präsident Weidmann und seine Kollegen nach SPIEGEL-Informationen eine weitere Leitzinssenkung der EZB. [...] Doch sieben Ratsmitglieder, vor allem aus den Nordstaaten, argumentierten heftig dagegen. Darunter waren nicht nur der deutsche Bundesbank-Chef Jens Weidmann und der Niederländer Klaas Knot, sondern auch das deutsche Mitglied des geschäftsführenden Direktoriums, Jörg Asmussen.
QE  NIRP  JörgAsmussen  Europe  creditcrunch  M3  Bundesbank  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  ZIRP  Jens  Weidmann  negative  real  interest  rate  banking  crisis  ECB  bank  crisis  creditcrisis 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
What The ECB's "Unprecedented" Forward Guidance Means | Zero Hedge
Europe struck in credit crisis - liquidity trap. & other problems - Politics / Brussels - one to mention. >> "The move clearly marks an innovative step in the ECB's communication and policy strategy for a bank that previously had always refused to pre-commit on interest rates." >> Problem is - ECB will have it hard to maneuver out of the measures, end schemes, etc. "Monetary Policy is no Panacea." Ben Bernanke. + >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-04/diminishing-effects-qe-programs
unemployment  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  M3  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  imbalance  political  error  creditcrunch  forward  guidance  trustagent  austerity  Taper  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Politics  PIIGSFB  GFC  MarioDraghi  output-gap  European  Commission  Euro  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  OMT  NIRP  communication  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  escape  velocity  ZIRP  PIIGS  Germany 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Breaking Bad Habits by Stephen S. Roach - Project Syndicate
Unable to facilitate balance-sheet repair or stimulate real economic activity, QE has, instead, become a dangerous source of instability in global financial markets. [...] There is good reason to believe that China’s new leaders are now determined to wean the economy off ever-mounting (and destabilizing) debt – especially in its rapidly expanding “shadow banking” system. [...] Financial markets are having a hard time coming to grips with the new policy mindset in the world’s two largest economies. [...] Breaking bad habits is hardly a painless experience for liquidity-addicted investors.
monetary  policy  GFC  unintended  consequences  New  Normal  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  monetary  system  addiction  benbernanke  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  greatrecession  China  QE  NIRP  2013  Fed  Greenspan-Put  alangreenspan  shadowbanking  financial  repression  stephenroach  creditcrunch  bubble  ZIRP  Taper  USA  greatdepression  deleveraging  toobigtofail  PBOC  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
UK banking shortfall mostly patched up | ForexLive
The FT is out with a sensational headline saying ‘PRA to expose £26bn bank funding gap’ but the details of the story show that the numbers don’t account for measures already taken this year or are scheduled over the next 18 months. The Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds and Barclays account for 90% of the shortfall but each has only about £1-2bn more to raise.
liquidity  debtoverhang  trust  GFC  UK  confidence  RBS  creditcrunch  capital  Lloyds  trustagent  liquid  assets  greatdepression  banking  crisis  deleveraging  Barclays  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2013/speech670.pdf
UK’s King Last Speech: UK needs more Bank of England stimulus as recovery is not assured. >> UK's future still uncertain. Reflective in Cable (GBPUSD). While others do much better. >> "Despite this encouraging picture, growth is not yet strong enough to reduce the considerable margin of spare capacity in the economy. Nor is recovery at an adequate rate fully assured. The weakness of the euro area and the problems of the UK banking system continue to act as a drag on growth. So the need to support the recovery remains. [...] unemployment remains unnecessarily high. [...] Both nominal and real interest rates are at unsustainably low levels. There is an understandable yearning for a return to normality [...] Monetary policy cannot provide the answer. [... Banking > ...] It is insufficient capital that restricts lending [+ holding not enough liquid assets]. And, without a resilient banking system, it will be difficult to sustain a recovery."
unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  reflation  zombie  banks  capital  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  Discount  Window  Facility  policy  folly  Recapitalisation  liquidity  QE  price  stability  inflation  targeting  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  devaluation  political  error  imbalance  creditcrunch  Recapitalization  trustagent  hunt  for  yield  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  global  imbalances  inflation  debt  monetization  governance  balance  sheet  recession  Leverage  GFC  complexity  output-gap  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  too  big  to  jail  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  policy  error  debtoverhang  Special  Scheme  NIRP  trust  economic  history  confidence  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  MervynKing  toobigtofail  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
The Fed isn’t the most important central bank in the world right now | ForexLive
A credit crunch may be underway in China as the PBOC turns its back on the money market. One-day repo rates rose to a more than 5-year high today at today at 11.0% from 6.3% at the open in the Chinese interbank market (CHIBOR). Interbank repo rates hit 15% for overnight lending a 12% for two weeks (up more than 400 bps).
monetary  policy  2013  interbank  market  trust  property  bubble  interbank  lending  confidence  creditcrunch  trustagent  deleveraging  PBOC  creditcrisis  China  money  market  balance  sheet  recession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Connectivity climbs post crisis - YouTube
Shock to one part of the system has consequences unknown. > Interdependency between banks, insurers and countries through financial instruments was a factor blamed for the financial crisis.
GFC  complexity  shadowbanking  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  connectivity  creditcrunch  sovereign  crisis  transparency  banking  crisis  banking  connectedness  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  feedback  loop  world  economy  credit  bubble 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Hilfe für Finanzkonzerne: Deutschland bremst Bankenunion aus - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Gerade wegen der Probleme im Bankensektor würden die geldpolitischen Impulse nicht mehr wirken. "Die EZB wird auf Dauer nicht erfolgreich sein können, wenn wir den Bankensektor nicht grundlegend reformieren",
ESM  angelamerkel  monetary  policy  PIIGSFB  monetary  theory  MarioDraghi  Europe  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  union  banking  crisis  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  Recapitalisation  debtoverhang  2013  Wolfgang  Schäuble  NPL  PIGS  debt  monetisation  creditcrunch  political  error  monetarism  sovereign  debt  crisis  Recapitalization  PIIGS  deleveraging  Germany  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Deutsche Steuerzahler sollen vor dem Sommer Euro-Banken retten | DEUTSCHE WIRTSCHAFTS NACHRICHTEN
Chef der Euro-Gruppe, Dijsselbloem: „Wir arbeiten sehr hart an allen Elementen der Banken-Union. (…) Unsere aktuelle Arbeit konzentriert sich auf zwei Elemente: Die Richtlinie zur Abwicklung von Banken, die sich in Schwierigkeiten befinden, und das zweite Element ist die direkte Rekapitalisierung der Banken. Ob eine direkte Rekapitalisierung der Banken aus Länder, die bereits einem Bailout-Programm unterstehen, rekapitalisiert werden können, ist noch nicht entschieden. (…). Aber wir versuchen, eine Einigung vor der Sommerpause zu erreichen, aber natürlich gibt es keine Garantien.“
Recapitalisation  trustagent  ESM  banking  union  2013  trust  capitalisation  Europe  confidence  creditcrunch  zombie  banks  Recapitalization 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau über die Pläne für eine Bankenunion - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die geplante Bankenunion kommt zu spät für die gegenwärtige Krise - denn ohne eine Änderung der EU-Verträge wird sie nicht funktionieren. Der Euro-Zone droht ein Jahrzehnt der Stagnation, weil es für Unternehmen in Südeuropa kaum noch Kredite gibt.
Politics  GFC  Europe  European  Commission  zombie  banks  recapitalisation  New  Normal  liquidity-trap  europeanunion  Troika  banking  union  banking  crisis  ECB  zombie  corporations  political  folly  lostdecade  policy  error  policy  folly  lostgeneration  economic  history  financial  repression  creditcrunch  political  error  sovereign  debt  crisis  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  austerity  USA  deleveraging  toobigtofail  systemicrisk  Richardkoo  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB's Draghi 'ready to act if needed'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvHvyvPd0PU + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/ezb-senkt-leitzins-auf-rekordtief-von-0-5-prozent-a-897701.html "Die Währungshüter hoffen, dass die Finanzbranche das billige Geld in Form von Krediten an Unternehmen und Verbraucher weiterreichen wird." + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-senkt-leitzins-draghis-gefaehrlicher-rettungsversuch-a-897771.html ... >> After the GFC, banks should have been privatised (creditors to take haircuts) in 2010/11, those who were not banks (ie lending), but mere zombie banks. Europe is doing the same mistake as Japan. >> see Apple example - unintended consequences. Microsoft too.
monetary  policy  financialcrisis  GFC  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  New  Normal  liquidity-trap  banking  crisis  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  lostdecade  greatrecession  policy  folly  QE  debtoverhang  communication  economic  history  financial  repression  Debt  Super  Cycle  NPL  PIGS  bubble  error  creditcrunch  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
El-Erian's Summary: "Virtually Every Market Is Trading At Very Artificial Levels" | Zero Hedge
http://live.wsj.com/public/page/embed-85F75B51_F954_46E1_861D_EC47CC278296.html >> "if these levels aren’t validated by the fundamentals, then investors will get hurt." WORTH LISTENING EVERY MINUTE. > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/not-what-low-volatility-environment-looks > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/margin-clerks-were-working " Long experience in the markets will inform you that this kind of massive sell-off is indicative of someone or perhaps a numbers of someones with serious problems. " [...] The markets can turn on a dime and the move can be severe and painful. [...] The cash provided by the Central Banks has been leveraged to the nines as indicated by the severity of the sell-off in both gold and equities. > Europe lost out on design and execution to overcome crisis. > Rating Agencies have monopoly. With monopoly comes problems. > Trust, but verify.
unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  BOJ  Gold  Structural  Impediments  Equity  QE  2013  UK  debt  monetisation  creditcrunch  imbalance  debt  bubble  Error  trustagent  austerity  bubble  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  ratingagencies  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  PIMCO  Politics  GFC  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  ECB  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  political  folly  income  growth  China  greatrecession  uncertainty  lostdecade  monopoly  debtoverhang  Fed  trust  economic  history  financial  repression  bubbles  income-growth  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Former ECB Board Member Bini Smaghi Says Draghi Will Weaken Euro - Bloomberg
ECB Struggles The Frankfurt-based ECB is struggling to find new ways to help the 17-nation euro economy shake off its second recession in four years. While Draghi signalled this month that policy makers are considering cutting interest rates further, he said they haven’t yet come up with a plan to get banks lending to small and medium-sized businesses -- something the ECB has long identified as an area of economic weakness. Bini Smaghi said there’s no point in the ECB engaging in QE like the Fed, as that would involve it buying the sovereign bonds of countries like Germany, which already have record-low borrowing costs.
double-dip  debtoverhang  monetary  policy  2013  trust  economic  history  monetary  theory  Europe  MarioDraghi  confidence  structural  imbalance  creditcrunch  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  liquidity-trap  PIIGS  banking  crisis  greatdepression  ECB  deleveraging  bank  crisis  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Carmen Reinhart: "No Doubt. Our Pensions Are Screwed." | Zero Hedge
Only when inflation picks up, which is ultimately going to happen, will it become obvious that central banks have become subservient to governments." [...] Nations "seldom just grow themselves out of debt," as so many believe is possible, "you need a combination of austerity, so that you don't add further to the pile of debt, and higher inflation, which is effectively a subtle form of taxation," with the consequence that people are going to lose their savings. Reinhart succinctly summarizes, "no doubt, our pensions are screwed." [...] http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/interview-with-harvard-economist-carmen-reinhart-on-financial-repression-a-893213.html / http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/how-central-banks-are-threatening-the-savings-of-normal-germans-a-860021.html
monetization  unemployment  monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  modern  monetary  theory  transferring-wealth  reflation  academia  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  carmenreinhart  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  deposit  levy  creditcrisis  QE  2013  moralhazard  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  creditcrunch  bail-in  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  inflation  centralbanks  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  debt  jubilee  haircut  unintended  consequences  Troika  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  debt  restructuring  bank  crisis  Abenomics  greatrecession  debtoverhang  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  bailout 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The Complete (And Very Disturbing) European Bank Loan-To-Deposit Ratios: A Redux | Zero Hedge
The chart [above] explains why not only is Europe's several asset constrained, it is also running out of funding, in the form of depositor cash: the most critical bank liability. Remember: without incremental deposits, banks can not invest in new assets, unless they generate cash from operations, and thus grow shareholder equity. There is a problem: as the final chart below shows, Europe, and especially Scandinavia which has consistently remained off the radar, is literally off the charts when it comes to LTD ratios.   With banks such as Danske, SHB, Swebank, DnB, and Nordea literally at 200% Loan-to-Deposits, but most other European banks too, even the tiniest outflow in deposit cash (ala what is happening in the PIIGS) will send the system into yet another liquidity spasm.
2013  scandinavia  GFC  Europe  creditcrunch  debt  bubble  banking  crisis  greatdepression  deleveraging  2012  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  greatrecession  lostdecade  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
17 Signs Of A Full-Blown Economic Depression Raging In Southern Europe | Zero Hedge
The percentage of bad loans in Italian banks has risen to 12.2 percent.  Back in 2007, that number was sitting at just 4.5 percent. Data from Italy's national statistics institute ISTAT showed that the country's economy shrank by 0.9pc in the fourth quarter of last year and gross domestic product was down a revised 2.8pc year-on-year. The Italian economy is in the midst of a horrifying "credit crunch" that is causing thousands of companies to go bankrupt. "The sustainability of Italian public finances is in jeopardy. The euro crisis will therefore return shortly with a vengeance."
Portugal  unemployment  2013  Greece  Spain  NPL  Europe  creditcrunch  zombie  banks  Italy  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  banking  crisis  zombie  consumer  bank  crisis  greatrecession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Banks reduce loans, in spite of Funding for Lending
The number of loans being offered by banks has continued to fall in spite of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS). The scheme, which began in August last year, was designed to encourage banks to lend more money, both to individuals and businesses, and boost the economy. But the Bank of England has announced that net lending fell by £2.4bn in the final quarter of last year compared with the previous three months.
monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  zombie  banks  BOE  deflation  2012  greatrecession  debtoverhang  2013  trust  fiscal  policy  UK  confidence  creditcrunch  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  austerity  ZIRP  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  global  imbalances  MervynKing  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  GeorgeOsborne  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
US-Klage gegen S&P: Details der Klageschrift - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Analyst scheint ziemlich baff. "Dieser Deal ist lächerlich", schreibt er einer Kollegin in einer E-Mail. "Wir sollten ihm kein Rating geben." Die Kollegin sieht das ähnlich - wenn auch nur bedingt: "Das Modell erfasst nicht mal die Hälfte des Risikos", stimmt sie zu. Aber: "Wir geben jedem Deal ein Rating… Er könnte von Kühen strukturiert werden, wir würden ihm ein Rating geben." Der saloppe Wortwechsel stammt vom April 2007, dem Beginn der US-Kreditkrise. Besagter "Deal" war ein besonders wackliges Hypothekenpapier - und die Analysten, die sich darüber lustig machen, arbeiten für Standard & Poor's (S&P), eine der drei großen Rating-Agenturen Amerikas. ist ein regelrechter Finanzkrimi: Gnadenlos enthüllt er, wie Insider lange vor anderen wussten, dass der Crash kommen würde - und trotzdem fleißig weiterzockten, um abzukassieren.
2008  GFC  creditrating  CDS  accountability  creditcrunch  WallStreet  creditrisk  corruption  subprime  CDO  ratingagencies  insider-trading 
february 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Lib Dem conference: Cable promises £1bn 'business bank'
The government is to put £1bn into setting up a bank designed to increase the amount of lending to businesses, Vince Cable has announced.

[...]

While the details of the new "business bank" won't be known until December's Autumn Statement, it is believed that it will focus on supporting long-term lending to small firms.

It is expected to do this by buying up existing loans that banks have made to such companies.

While small businesses would get longer term financial security, the government will hope that its move will free up more capital for the sector.

Critics however will argue that the business bank plan will only add to confusion about what schemes are available to small firms, and accusations that the government keeps chopping and changing.
debt  bubble  GFC  2012  UK  VinceCable  creditcrunch  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  greatrecession 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Five years on, the Great Recession is turning into a life sentence - Telegraph
Five years on it is clear that subprime was merely the first bubble to pop, a symptom not a cause. Europe had its own parallel follies. Britons were extracting almost 5pc of GDP each year in home equity by the end. Spain built 800,00 homes in 2007 for a market of 250,000. Iceland ran amok, so did Latvia and Hungary. The credit debacle was global. If there was an epicentre, it was Europe’s €35 trillion banking nexus.

There comes a point when extra debt draws down prosperity from the future. The future arrived in 2008.

A study by Stephen Cecchetti at the Bank for International Settlements concludes that debt turns “bad” at roughly 85pc of GDP for public debt, 85pc for household debt, and 90pc corporate debt. If all three break the limit together, the system loses its shock absorbers.

http://www.bis.org/publ/work352.htm

Much of the debt will have to be written off. Whether this done by inflation (1945-1952) or default (1930-1934) will be the great political battle of this decade.
politics  policy  folly  policy  error  default  scenario  inflation  reflation  debt  jubilee  economic  history  globalisation  global-economy  global  imbalances  savings  glut  creditcrunch  economic-thought  economic  model  BIS  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  credit  bubble  subprime  property  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  UK  China  USA  Europe  2012  2008  lostdecade  GFC  greatrecession 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
BBC Today Show 'We didn't expect a total meltdown'
It is five years to the day since the start of the credit crunch. Sir John Gieve, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, economist Frances Cairncross, and Danny Gabay, who runs the Fathom Financial Consulting look back at half a decade of global economic uncertainty.

-
economic  model  economic-thought  economic  history  greatrecession  subprime  debtoverhang  UK  2008  2007  creditcrunch  GFC 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
EZB: Ankündigung von Draghi zum Anleihenkauf enttäuscht Anleger - SPIEGEL ONLINE
ECB loading up on sovereign debt (PIIGS + France, Belgium) poses a balance sheet risk if just one country Defaults outright and or even imposed just a haircut even for ECB [ECB demanded and pulled through this demand to take no haircut in the Grecce's partial default/PSI 2011].

Meaning then that the ECBs balance sheet is under water and thus the National Central Banks of each country within the EMU have to raise money via its respective governments on debt markets (which are likely then closed because of the severity of the situation, meaning they have to sell their reserve holding of foreign currencies and assets) and without appropriate funds ... Europe's sovereign debt crisis once defined to the south would likely turn into an outright currency crisis.

Baseline: Open Market Operations (SMP) by the ECB have massive tail risk, unintended consequences for the ECB, the monetary system, price stability, the Euro.
ZIRP  QE  SMP  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  greatrecession  GFC  currency-war  currency  debasement  default  Greece  policy  folly  policy  error  2012  Europe  blackswan  confidence  trustagent  trust  tail  risk  Euro  creditcrunch  Monetary  System  theory  policy  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  Jens  Weidmann  MarioDraghi  Bundesbank  ECB 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Stephen Roach Mops Floor With Keynesianism And Former Fed Governor Larry Meyer | ZeroHedge
ex Fed member Larry Meyer:
'we do models, to do forecasts ... otherwise we don't know'

Roach replies: your models don't work, and thus your forecasts - because they use empirical (the past) data.

Your models are not based on science, what you (the Fed) is doing is working with assumptions.

-

Fed models / assumptions do not account deleveraging, debt overhang, outcome of financial crisis etc etc. disrupting and distorting the entire monetary system - which they build.

Because this is a different kind of gargantuan crisis than ever before.

One can only think about it that the system is broken (monetary system) - it may take 10-20 years to fully recover. Now one as to admit to that, that it is broken beyond patch work repair (QE, ZIRP and Co). And start think a new, and consider a debt jubilee. Basically a cold reset for the monetary system.
keynes  miltonfriedman  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  jubilee  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  creditcrunch  deleveraging  debtoverhang  NPL  zombie  banks  Japan  UK  USA  lostdecade  greatdepression  GFC  greatrecession  benbernanke  paulkrugman  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  economic  history  economic-thought  economic  model  Fed  richardkoo  stephenroach 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
We're (USA) Not Japan But One Can Always Hope | ZeroHedge
3 Years on ...

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- In today's "Single Best Chart," Bloomberg's Mike McKee displays how the current U.S. recovery is the slowest since the 1970's and even lags Japan at the same point of their recovery in 1993.

__Measured in Real GDP per capita :

USA post crisis (property and credit bubble + financial crisis followed by credit crunch, deleveraging, debt overhang and non-performing loans [balance sheet recession]) recovery is worse than the recovery of Japan from 1993 (property and equity bubble followed by credit crunch, deleveraging, debt overhang and non-performing loans [balance sheet recession]).

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/single-best-chart-worst-u-s-recovery-since-1970-s-UVkghBlRT8ydic0ovJ_iVA.html

-

And Tim Geithner once said "the USA is not Japan".
paulkrugman  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  financialcrisis  property  bubble  creditcrunch  NPL  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  deleveraging  richardkoo  economic-thought  economic  model  Europe  GFC  greatrecession  economic  history  timgeithner  lostdecade  double-dip  UK  USA  Japan 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Funding for Lending bank scheme launched
Under the Funding for Lending initiative, the Bank of England will lend money at below-market rates to the financial institutions.

The Bank will then monitor their progress in lending the cash out.

Some mortgage lenders have already cut the cost of their long-term, fixed-rate deals.

But the lower borrowing costs being introduced by mortgage lenders are so far only being offered to people with large deposits.

-

Bank of England, the Funding for Lending scheme (FLS) is "designed to incentivise banks and building societies to boost their lending to UK households and non-financial companies".
double-dip  monetary  policy  Project  Merlin  Merlin  FLS  ZIRP  QE  2012  creditcrunch  greatrecession  BOE  UK  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Charting Europe's Broken Transmission Channels | ZeroHedge
Barclays provides a succinct flowchart of just where those transmission channels are broken. However, with SMP empirically a losing proposition for sovereign spreads, LTROs having had no impact on loans to non-financial corporates, and rate cuts not reaching the peripheral economies (and in fact signaling further divergence); it seems that short of full-scale LSAP (which JPM thinks will need to be a minimum EUR600bn to be in any way effective), whatever Draghi says will be a disappointment and perhaps that explains the weakness in European sovereigns this week as exuberance fades (or is the game to implicitly weaken the EUR to regain competitiveness).

The transmission policy channels of central bank largesse are failing... as giving free money to banks is not reaching the economy... (LTRO) ... and cutting rates didn't reach the areas it needed... (base rate cuts do not translate in rate cuts on the other side [real economy].

A weaker Euro? Be careful what you wish for.
creditcrunch  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  currency-war  currency  debasement  policy  folly  policy  error  Politics  confidence  trustagent  trust  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  QE  debtoverhang  deleveraging  GFC  greatrecession  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  MarioDraghi  SMP  LTRO  moneysupply  velocity  of  money  transmission  monetary  policy  System  ECB  PIIGS  Euro  competitiveness 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Rumor NY consulting shop says ECB could go to negative deposit rates in September | ForexLive
One of the catalysts for the latest move lower, it would appear.
Since the ECB cut the deposit rate to zero last week, deposits at the ECB fallen sharply. Rather than find their way into productive use, banks have been buying short-term government debt pushing rates in Germany and Holland below zero and to 0.03% in Finland.

***

- NIRP seems not to be the incentive to lend to real economy (lending, debt roll-over) or between each other ... easing the interbank credit crunch.
- Q for banks remain about outlook of Europe, and bc it is on the downside, they don't wanna do anything. its damage control of its balance sheet (Zombi banks, Zombi companies, NPL)
- Liquidity seems not the solution to structural problems (ie bank and sovereign linkage, competitiveness, EU wide divergence in local policies like labour, taxation and laws)
- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/clarifying-entirely-unremarkable-shift-ecb-deposits
Politics  France  Germany  sarkozy  FrancoisHollande  angelamerkel  greatrecession  GFC  liquidity-trap  liquidation  LTRO  QE  2012  PIIGS  Europe  zombie  banks  NPL  creditcrunch  confidence  trustagent  trust  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  BIS  ECB  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  System  policy  error  inflation  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Barclays - a day of unanswered questions
A whistleblower at the Financial Services Authority (FSA) has already told the committee he believes the FSA has e-mail evidence of exchanges between the Barclays and the Bank of England about the Libor rate.

At the very least we need Tucker's written account of his own side of that conversation. So far he has volunteered no account and has been screened behind the Bank of England's press operation, which says they can't comment on anything not in the FSA judgment.

At the level of Barclays' senior management we need to know - and this is the critical question: why did Jerry del Missier form the opinion that Tucker had ordered the rigging of Libor?

If that were me, and I was ordered to breach my professional and industry rules, I would be checking the exact meaning with the boss I have just spoken to. We need to know what Del Missier actually did.

Bob Diamond, so far, he has not admitted culpability - only responsibility.

*
SFO, FSA and DOJ (USA) need to start bringing charges.
confidence  2012  2008  creditcrunch  greatrecession  GFC  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  manipulation  DOJ  SFO  transparency  accountability  trustagent  trust  Willful  ignorance  misconduct  fraud  politics  AlistairDarling  EdBalls  gordonbrown  USA  Fed  NYFed  MervynKing  UK  BBA  FSA  bobdiamond  barclays  EURIBOR  LIBOR  LIBOR  rigging  scandal  BOE  PaulTucker 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Diamond lets loose over Libor - FT.com
Mr Diamond quit after the governor of the Bank of England, Sir Mervyn King, and the head of the Financial Services Authority, Lord Turner, in effect called for his departure in late night phone calls on Monday to Marcus Agius, Barclays chairman.

But Barclays soon dragged Paul Tucker, deputy BoE governor, and “senior Whitehall figures” from the previous government into the controversy by publishing a document suggesting they may have known of – and even condoned – the bank’s repeated “lowballing” of its submissions to the rate-setting process during the financial crisis.
The bank released Mr Diamond’s contemporaneous notes of a 2008 conversation – one of only three “notes to file” he has written in his career – in which he wrote that Mr Tucker had passed on concerns from Whitehall about Barclays’ Libor submissions, adding that “it did not always need to be the case that we appeared as high as we have recently”.
AlistairDarling  EdBalls  gordonbrown  MervynKing  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  UK  politics  culture  negligence  misconduct  fraud  creditcrunch  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  FSA  BBA  greatrecession  GFC  BoE  2012  2008  EURIBOR  LIBOR  PaulTucker  barclays  bobdiamond 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Libor scandal: Bob Diamond resigns as Barclays chief executive | Mail Online
Memo from Barclays implies Bank of England knew about Libor-rigging scam

'Bob Diamond did not believe he received an instruction (to fix rates) from Paul Tucker or that he gave an instruction to Jerry del Missier.
'However, Jerry del Missier concluded that an instruction had been passed down from the Bank of England not to keep Libors so high and he therefore passed down a direction to that effect to the submitters.'
The FSA investigated Jerry del Missier but closed the investigation without taking any enforcement action, Barclays added.

***
My Take::
During the hight of the financial crisis 2008; everything seemed to be on the table to stabilise the markets and safe the banks and rebuild confidence.

***

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18688417 (3 July 2012)

Behold, the British establishment, panicked
The chairman resigns to save the CEO. The CEO makes a public threat to drag the central bank into the mire. And the previous government. And the Treasury.
misconduct  negligence  capitalism  corporate  governance  Barcap  2012  2008  lehmanbrothers  AlistairDarling  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  UK  politics  CFTC  SEC  NYFed  Fed  centralbanks  culture  BIS  trustagent  trust  confidence  collusion  creditcrunch  greatrecession  GFC  BBA  FSA  PaulTucker  BOE  barclays  EURIBOR  LIBOR 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Bob Diamond's daughter comes out fighting for her beleaguered father with offensive Tweet directed at Osborne and Miliband | Mail Online
'George Osborne and Ed Miliband you can go ahead and #HMD': Bob Diamond's daughter comes out fighting for her beleaguered father with offensive Tweet

Nell Diamond works as an analyst at Deutsche Bank
#HMD is Twitter slang for 'hold my d***'
Mr Diamond to appear before Treasury Select Committee tomorrow
Osborne: 'Diamond resignation was right for Barclays and the country'
The American, 60, expected to receive 13.2million shares worth £22.9million
Barclays chief operating officer Jerry del Missier also resigns
Chairman Marcus Agius - who also announced he was standing down yesterday - will stay on to find new chief executive
Agius revealed he has known about Libor fixing for 'more than two years'
MPs will vote tomorrow on plans to set up a full judge-led inquiry into the bank rate-rigging scandal
Barclays release memo which points finger at Bank of England and Whitehall
*

Regulators turned blind eye on matter, knowing to stabilise market, everything is on the table.
culture  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  accountability  confidence  trustagent  trust  2012  2008  creditcrunch  FSA  fraud  collusion  Fed  NYFed  PaulTucker  greatrecession  GFC  BOE  BBA  EURIBOR  LIBOR  bobdiamond  barclays 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Osborne’s £100bn plan for UK economy - FT.com
George Osborne on Thursday night announced plans for a £100bn support programme for the British economy,

Sir Mervyn also raised the prospect of a new round of quantitative easing, saying that “the case for a further monetary easing is growing”.

At the heart of the package is a BoE “funding for lending” scheme to cut bank funding costs in exchange for lending commitments. The Treasury claims the programme, designed to address the rising costs of loans and mortgages, could support an estimated £80bn in new loans.

the BoE will also on Friday activate an emergency scheme that offers six-month liquidity to banks in tranches of no less than £5bn a month.

***

1 1/2 weeks ago IMF did present such a scheme in its latest report about UK economy and did encourage UK do to so if situation deteriorates further.
IMF  MervynKing  creditcrunch  banking  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  ZIRP  QE  greatrecession  UK  2012  GeorgeOsborne  BOE 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Coryton oil refinery set to close | Business | The Guardian
Real example of financing conditions ... Credit Crunch

Stephen Pearson, joint administrator of Petroplus, said talks had been held with more than 100 would-be investors and purchasers, but financing was in short supply for potential bidders. "The current financing market is exceptionally difficult," he said.

Add Uncertainty in Enegry business + Supply (in EU) is overshadowing Demand because of Demand Shortfall (Great Recession + Technology advances on Energy Efficiencies and MPG Efficiencies)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/one-uks-biggest-refineries-prepares-shutdown-drivers-concerned-about-gas-price-spike
supply-demand  economics  greatrecession  2012  creditcrunch 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Eurozone crisis: live blog | The World | International affairs blog from the FT – FT.com
11.15: Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, has been speaking to the UK parliament’s treasury committee this morning, suggesting that some of the hype about the LTRO is unjustified.

“The idea that the long term repo operations have eased the supply of finance to small businesses in the euro area is a myth.
“What it has done is to provide a source of funding to banks particularly in the southern member countries of the euro area which were experiencing a bank run, enabling them to fund the withdrawal of funds.”

- indeed, it just helped to avert a liquidity (& thus credit crunch, followed by deflationary pressures later) squeeze in the European banking system.

- but everything after the 2nd 3yr LTRO operation will have less impact. On the margin, it becomes less effective. With each new operation.

- ECB's Nowotny noted recently that they see Banks being addicted to cheap liquidity, that it is an issue.
monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  QE  ZIRP  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  bankrun  creditcrunch  BOE  ECB  2012  MervynKing  LTRO 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Quantitative easing: Just more of the same? | The Economist
THREE years ago the Bank of England, which had already cut interest rates to record lows, wheeled out a new, unconventional tool to stimulate the economy. It would buy government debt using newly-created cash—a policy that became known as “quantitative easing” or QE. The Bank is now a market mammoth, owning over 30% of the £940 billion ($1.5 trillion) pool of outstanding government bonds. It is set to get bigger: on February 9th the Bank's monetary-policy committee authorised £50 billion of new purchases over the next three months. But is this strategy working?
...

The Bank estimates its first injection of QE boosted Britain’s GDP by up to two percentage points and inflation by up to 1.5 points. Inflation is projected to fall well below the Bank’s 2% target in 2013, justifying further easing, according to Jens Larsen at RBC Capital Markets.

Yet QE has not made life much easier for British businesses.
liquidity  mittelstand  SMB  SME  quantitative-easing  sovereign  debt  crisis  creditcrunch  currency-war  debtoverhang  leverage  reflation  2012  monetary  policy  QE  BOE 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
The mathematical equation that caused the banks to crash | Science | The Observer
The Black-Scholes equation has its roots in mathematical physics, where quantities are infinitely divisible, time flows continuously and variables change smoothly. Such models may not be appropriate to the world of finance. Traditional mathematical economics doesn't always match reality, either, and when it fails, it fails badly. Physicists, mathematicians and economists are therefore looking for better models.

At the forefront of these efforts is complexity science, a new branch of mathematics that models the market as a collection of individuals interacting according to specified rules. These models reveal the damaging effects of the herd instinct: market traders copy other market traders. Virtually every financial crisis in the last century has been pushed over the edge by the herd instinct. It makes everything go belly-up at the same time. If engineers took that attitude, and one bridge in the world fell down, so would all the others.
herding  sociology  irrational  complexity  CDS  blackswan  economic  history  creditcrunch  greatrecession  GFC  derivatives  mathematics  Economics  Black-Scholes  Equation 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
ECB Decision ... 9th Feb 2012 | ZeroHedge
'transitory' nature of temporary non-standard measure; easing collateral demands (will now accept credit claims) to avoid credit crunch in Europe and help refinance banks (roll over of existing debt, new capital requirements (EBA) & risk aversion)

Simply proves that Europe is running out of any money good assets to pledge to the ECB as "collateral."

DRAGHI NO LONGER SEES `SUBSTANTIAL' DOWNSIDE ECONOMIC RISKS
DRAGHI SAYS IMPACT OF LTRO ON BANK FUNDING IS STILL UNFOLDING
DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL REVIEW COLLATERAL SITUATION IN 6 MONTHS
DRAGHI SAYS ECB `CONCERNED' ABOUT SLOWING DOWN IN CREDIT
DRAGHI SAYS BNK LENDING SURVEY DOESN'T FULLY REFLECT LTRO
Draghi Says ECB Will ‘Take More Risk’ on Collateral
DRAGHI SAYS TALK ABOUT ECB SHARING LOSSES `IS UNFOUNDED'

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ecbs-collateral-pool-expansion-%E2%82%AC71-trillion-imminent-trash-cash-increase-its-balance-sheet

"Loss on Balance sheet holdings is monetary financing of Europe." Draghi
Target2-System discussed minute 47.
target2-system  monetization  SMP  EBA  Europe  creditcrunch  QE  ZIRP  LTRO  balancesheet  collateral  MarioDraghi  2012  monetary  policy  ECB 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
The euro crisis: The ECB's tricky route to stabilisation | The Economist
the ECB's actions have had a dramatic impact on sovereign yields at all durations. On the other hand, it has not been successful at reversing a reduction in lending that threatens the real euro-zone economy.

As the piece explains, the ECB's is a useful strategy, but one which has in some ways increased the risk to the single currency of a renewed loss of confidence in sovereign solvency. An unsatisfactory outcome to the Greek debt negotiations could help trigger such a reversal, as could the recession generated by the present credit crunch. For all its success, the ECB hasn't shepherded the euro zone out of trouble entirely, and it may yet find itself needing to buy large quantities of government bonds.
capital-flight  PIIGS  moneymarkets  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  creditcrunch  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  Fed  BOE  quantitative-easing  LTRO  ECB 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
ECB's Balance Sheet Now Far Bigger Than Fed's, More Levered Than Lehman, PIIGS Exposure Up 50% In 6 Months | ZeroHedge
Bloodmberg chart of the day shows, the ECB's balance sheet is not only far greater than the Fed, at $3.2 trillion compared to $2.9 trillion for Ben Bernanke, but at 30x leverage, has the same risk as Lehman did at its peak.

“The ECB is providing liquidity and confidence to the banking system, yet all the while its own leverage and balance sheet size is hitting new highs. It seems likely that the market will begin to watch the rising leverage with interest and growing concern."

"Through its government bond buying and liquidity provision to banks, we estimate that the ECB’s exposure to weaker eurozone economies has now reached €705bn, up from €444bn in early summer – an increase of over 50% in only six months, raising fresh questions about its credibility, independence and possible losses it may face in the case of future sovereign defaults."
PIIGS  solvency  Europe  creditcrunch  liquidity-trap  liquidity  QE  SMP  leverage  2011  balancesheet  Fed  ECB 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Drohende Kreditklemme: Europa geht das Geld aus - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
existential crisis of the "system"

die ganze Finanzbranche ist in Aufruhr. Es sei in Zukunft nicht mehr selbstverständlich, dass ein Staat seinen Haushalt über die Kapitalmärkte finanzieren könne, warnte am Montag der Präsident der Bankenverbandes, Andreas Schmitz.
Wer wissen will, was damit gemeint ist, sollte sich die verzweifelten Versuche einiger Euro-Staaten anschauen, an frisches Geld zu kommen.

Je länger die Doppelkrise bei Staaten und Banken anhält, desto mehr wird sie zur existentiellen Gefahr für die Währungsunion. Denn beide sind aufeinander angewiesen: Die Staaten brauchen flüssige Banken als Abnehmer für ihr Anleihen - und die Banken brauchen solide Staaten als Garanten für die Wertpapiere in ihren Bilanzen. Beides funktioniert derzeit nicht.
creditcrunch  2011  2012  Europe  PIIGS  capital-flight  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  uncertainty  confidence  financialmarkets 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Italy - Frustrated Entrepreneurs | Made in Germany - YouTube
The eurozone crisis shows no sign of ending. While Italy's interest rates for government bonds are rising, and prime minister Silvio Berlusconi has announced he'll step down, the country's entrepreneurs are frustrated. They feel betrayed by Italy's politicians, and they've started to protest.We meet business owner Enrico Frare, who has started a provocative newspaper ad campaign in which he is posing nude. His message is that Italy's entrepreneurs are in danger of losing the shirts off their backs -- and he's blaming what he says is Berlusconi's lack of any economic policy.
Italy  lostdecade  entrepeneurship  creditcrunch  2011  economy  sovereign  debt  crisis  entrepreneur  SME 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
RDQ's Ryding Says U.S. Treasury Yields Are `Unhealthy' - YouTube
Operation Twist will have very little macro economic impact
Fed reflates economy, but does not help to heal
Low yields are fundamentally a sign that nobody wants to take risk.
-
ECB provides Dollar lending facility till year end. Yesterday Central Bank Intervention - help for Europes banks.
operationtwist  2011  QE3  economics  macroeconomics  microeconomics  greatrecession  recession  recovery  reflation  yield  debt  unhealthy  treasury  treasuries  deflation  Japan  USA  monetary  policy  europe  creditcrunch  lenderoflastresort 
september 2011 by asterisk2a
Relax, central banks can still save us - Telegraph
Military demobilisation allowed an instant cut in the US budget deficit. Today the rot is structural, a failure to stop health care and ageing costs spiralling out of control.

The eurozone obviously needs looser money. M3 broad money is stagnant and real M1 deposits have turned negative, even in Germany and Holland. Real M1 is contracting at an alarming pace in Italy. EMU growth has wilted, five countries are spinning towards default, and the banking system is seizing up. This cries out for a change of course, yet the European Central Bank is still tightening.
USA  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balancesheet  recession  greatrecession  GFC  depression  history  paulkrugman  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  monetary  policy  supply  M1  M3  velocity  money  creditcrunch  error  folly  benbernanke  trichet  2011  August  JacksonHole  lesson  greatdepression  fiscal  austerity  europe  UK  presidency  barackobama  davidcameron  angelamerkel  sarkozy  GeorgeOsborne 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Wall Street Aristocracy Got $1.2 Trillion in Secret Fed Loans - Bloomberg
By 2008, the housing market’s collapse forced those companies to take more than six times as much, $669 billion, in emergency loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The loans dwarfed the $160 billion in public bailouts the top 10 got from the U.S. Treasury, yet until now the full amounts have remained secret.
Fed  financialcrisis  GFC  bailout  TARP  discountwindow  2008  meltdown  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  liquidity  creditcrunch 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Dubai Denies Neighbors Fuel as City Struggles to Pay Off Debt: Arab Credit - Bloomberg
questionable ability to service and repay debt.
Dubai has $16 billion of publicly held debt maturing later this year, International Monetary Fund data show. 
Dubai borrowed at least $129 billion to turn itself into a tourism, trade and financial services hub, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. It had to seek help from neighboring Abu Dhabi after the global credit crunch dragged property prices down by more than half from their peak in 2008 and forced some state- owned companies to seek changes to payments.

Fixing PricesThe U.A.E. federal government fixes retail prices for gasoline and diesel at prices that are below retailers’ costs. It has left prices unchanged this year even as crude rises to 2 1/2 year highs. Last year, the government allowed two increases in pump prices.

“There have been no price increases in the Gulf since the Mideast protests began, as governments want no cause for similar opposition at home.”
dubai  AbuDhabi  sovereign  debt  crisis  2011  contagion  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  liquidity  Arab-Spring  jasminrevolution 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
BIS: interest rates too low | City A.M.
INTEREST rates are too low in developed economies, risking a dangerous price instability and market distortions, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) declared yesterday.

 abnormally low rates “risk creating serious financial distortions, misallocations of resources and delay in the necessary de-leveraging” in advanced countries.
Unusually, BIS singles out the Bank og England for its loose monetary policy in the face of inflation that is more than double its two per cent target.
Bank of England: “One wonders how long its current policy can be sustained.” The report shows that combined with interest rates of 0.5 per cent, Britain has a negative real interest rate of minus four per cent, lower than that of the US, the Eurozone and Japan.
the Bank of England that its lack of control over commodity prices, which are driving inflation, means that raising rates won’t help.
“extraordinarily loose monetary policy” is boosting commodity prices because a “search for yield”
ZIRP  unintended  consequences  bubble  BOE  BOJ  Fed  ECB  recovery  monetary  policy  2011  greatrecession  creditcrunch  liquidity-trap  liquidity  reflation  reflate  balancesheet  recession  commodities 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Trichet Says Risk Signals Are Flashing Red as Debt Crisis Threatens Banks - Bloomberg
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said risk signals for financial stability in the euro area are flashing “red” as the debt crisis threatens to infect banks.

“On a personal basis I would say ‘yes, it is red’,” Trichet said late yesterday in Frankfurt after a meeting of the European Systemic Risk Board, referring to the group’s planned “dashboard” to monitor risks. “The message of the board is that” the link between debt problems and banks “is the most serious threat to financial stability in the European Union.”

BNP Paribas (BNP) SA, France’s biggest bank, and rivals Societe Generale (GLE) SA and Credit Agricole SA (ACA) may have their credit ratings cut by Moody’s Investors Service because of their Greek investments, the ratings company said on June 15. German banks could also be at risk from contagion, Fitch said last month.
PIIGS  sovereign  debt  trichet  ECB  ESRB  contagion  bank  solvency  capital  2011  exposure  libor  Greece  default  complexity  credit  creditcrunch  liquidity  interbank 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
The Real Housewives of Wall Street | Rolling Stone Politics
Christy and her pal Susan launched their investment initiative called Waterfall TALF. [.//] But with an upfront investment of $15 million, they quickly received $220 million in cash from the Fed, most of which they used to purchase student loans and commercial mortgages. The loans were set up so that Christy and Susan would keep 100 percent of any gains on the deals, while the Fed and the Treasury (read: the taxpayer) would eat 90 percent of the losses. Given out as part of a bailout program ostensibly designed to help ordinary people by kick-starting consumer lending, the deals were a classic heads-I-win, tails-you-lose investment.

What started off as a targeted effort to stop the bleeding in a few specific trouble spots became a gigantic feeding frenzy. It was "free money for shit," says Barry Ritholtz, author of Bailout Nation. "It turned into 'Give us your crap that you can't get rid of otherwise.' "
TALF  2011  Fed  wallstreet  hostage  bailout  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  TARP  2008  USA  fraud  creditcrunch  financialcrisis  liquidity  insolvent  insolvency 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
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