asterisk2a + corporations   58

What Happens Next (In Europe)?
the odds of another crisis are higher than a rally to fresh records. [...]
“The 2009-2015 rally originated from two main drivers: a massive stimulus, and credit expansion in China,” said Goette, who’s a partner at his firm in Zug, Switzerland and helps oversee 1 billion Swiss francs ($1 billion).

“European earnings have not followed suit so far. Skepticism regarding central-bank operations has started to emerge.”
ECB  Brussels  recovery  reflate  reflation  China  credit  bubble  Germany  PIGS  zombie  banks  European  Bank  Supervision  European  Economic  Area  European  Election  2014  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  MarioDraghi  OMT  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  Brexit  Grexit  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  history  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  Yanis  Varoufakis  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  youth  unemployment  demographic  bubble  OAP  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  liberal  reform  Precariat  precarious  employment  low  pay  low  income  Minijob  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  1  Euro  Job  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  union  union  Rechtsruck  Bundesbank  fault  lines  shareholder  capitalism  bailout  GFC  2016  PBOC  Exportweltmeister  zombie  Financial  Stability  Board  crony  capitalism  Deutsche  Bank  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  Beton  Gold  Betongold  asset  allocation  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  democracy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Russia  Crimea  Ukraine  U 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Ex-MPC member says rates will stay low until 2021 - BBC News
Blanchflower: Global economy "feels a little bit like 2008" Interest rates will likely fall further in Britain and remain at near record low levels until 2021, [...] Blanchflower described the backdrop to the committee's decision in March 2009 to cut rates to 0.5% as catastrophic. He said the MPC at the time had wished to avoid a death spiral. Britain was plunged into its deepest-ever recession in 2008 as confidence in banks collapsed and investment dried up. "We cut rates in November 2008 by 150 basis points (1.5%). It was clear that we should have cut by more but didn't because of the panic that it might have caused," he said. "It was absolutely clear that this (the financial crisis) was something we had not seen in a generation. We learned that the scale of the shock was enormous." [...] mortgage rates are 31% lower than before the crisis, while savers may have lost £106bn due to record low rates. //&! bbc.in/1YeqV87 &! bbc.in/1LGOxAf - central banks understated deflation pressure!
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  UK  global  economy  recovery  aggregate  demand  property  bubble  underinvestment  austerity  George  Osborne  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  mortgage  market  macroprudential  policy  Mark  Carney  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  subprime  car  loan  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  GFC  household  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  David  Blanchflower  Danny  Blanchflower  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  distortion  Super  Cycle  junk  bond  Gini  coefficient  deflationary  deflation  Taper  QT  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  BIS  ECB  Fed  BOJ  credit  bubble  PBOC  hot-money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Central bankers on the defensive as weird policy becomes even weirder | Business | The Guardian
Growth is tepid, productivity is poor, and inflation is too low: all is not going according to policymakers’ masterplans [...] As far as the OECD is concerned, monetary policy is being forced to take too much of the strain. Its chief economist Catherine Mann made the point that lasting recovery required three things: stimulative monetary policy; activist fiscal policy; and structural reform. The OECD wants the second of these ingredients to be added to the recipe in the form of increased spending on public infrastructure, something it says would more than pay for itself at a time when governments can borrow so cheaply.
monetary  policy  G20  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  UK  western  world  USA  Japan  Abenomics  George  Osborne  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  productivity  underinvestment  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  Taper  deflationary  deflation  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  zombie  banks  MervynKing  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  discretionary  spending  distortion  property  bubble  disposable  income  productive  investment  austerity  business  confidence  foreign  direct  investment  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  policy  folly  policy  error  short-termism  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  self-regulation  City  of  London  investment  banking  retail  banking  OECD  IMF  KennethRogoff  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  trust 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
What Really Caused the Crisis and What to Do About It - YouTube
"There are not perfect markets, and there is no perfect planner. [...] we will never arrive at perfect solutions. [...] market will never allocate perfectly ... [...] market will always tend to lend to property and land, and less into productive means (businesses = risk of 100 loss, land or property ... you have a loss when you sell it. << China, UK ) [...] not all credit is good credit. [...] need for macroprudential policy to dampen bubbles bc rate hikes could dampen normal non-speculative area of economy. ie loan to value limits [...] interest rate setting is blunt hammer that people though is the magic wand along the line of self-regulation, free market, neoliberalism and trickle-down [...] GFC can be traced back to the 60-70's - macroecon + micro with absurd assumptions (ie rational expectations, equilibriums, no bubbles) & math & pure theoretical base (no empirical analysis ie of what banks really do ie greed) = makes job of economist as policy advisor real easy.
bank  crisis  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  book  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  western  world  dogma  ideology  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  economic  history  credit  bubble  output  gap  productivity  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  asset  allocation  economics  investment  banking  zombie  banks  retail  banking  financial  product  CDS  CDO  hunt  for  yield  VAR  risk  aversion  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Glass-Steagall  self-regulation  regulators  regulation  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  arbitrage  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  BOE  zombie  consumer  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  corporations  NPL  junk  bond  realestate  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  equilibrium  disequilibrium  Economist  economists  Adair  Turner  hayek 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Help-to-buy loan scheme nets Treasury £213m in paper profit | Money | The Guardian
[ gov is not co-owner of private property! Make away with Nurse Bursaries and other gov support for education. But support the property price! by keeping supply always lower than demand. and use policy to increase demand w subsidies! where to put their savings! & subsidy for builders ] Rising house prices across much of England mean a government scheme to help buyers of newbuild property may have made more than £200m for the Treasury in its first two-and-a-half years. The help-to-buy equity loan scheme gives buyers an interest-free loan for five years in return for a percentage stake in their property. When the home is sold, the buyer returns the same percentage of the sale price, meaning that any fall or rise in house prices affects the return. Analysis by property firm Hometrack and shared with the Guardian suggests that a surge in house prices in some areas means the total value of homes bought through the scheme since its launch in April 2013 has increased by more than £1bn.
property  bubble  UK  speculative  bubbles  Housing  Crisis  affordable  social  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Save  budget  deficit  austerity  constituency  Party  Funding  babyboomers  BOE  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  distortion  financial  repression  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  fairness  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  NPL  subprime  Payday  Loans  car  loan  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Tories  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  Conservative  Party  nasty  short-termism  voter  turnout  disenfranchise  disenfranchised  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productive  investment  recovery  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  secular  stagnation  Privatisation  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  GFC  bank  bailout  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  welfare 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Japan's economy shrinks again as Abenomics is blown off course | World news | The Guardian
Japan’s economy shrank at an annualised rate of 1.4% in the last quarter of 2015, new figures showed on Monday, dealing a further blow to attempts by the prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to lift the country out of stagnation. [...] The Bank of Japan’s recent decision to adopt negative interest rates – a move that was supposed to encourage banks to lend to businesses – has not had the desired effect. //&! On Abenomics ... inflation targeting - bit.ly/1mwrUm7 - & He has barely started to address the structural reforms comprising the “third arrow” of Abenomics: a shrinking and ageing workforce and the urgent need to boost the role of women in the economy.
Japan  Abenomics  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  inflation  targeting  economic  history  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombi  banks  Richard  Koo  western  world  demographic  bubble  ageing  population 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Interview With Mohamed El-Erian: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View
7:50 New Normal is secular stagnation and decades-long NIRP, ZIRP, QE distortion. structural, secular. no cyclical recovery. but long secular challenges; prolonged period of low growth. // also inequality! // currently policy makers subsidise debtors, subsidise creditors - financial repression. promote risk taking. // richard koo would not agree with el-erian's notion that gov balance sheets are same as household balance sheets. // 12:10 demographic issue! political. and economic elements in it of secular stagnation. [...] borrowing growth // rise of far-right! // corps sitting on cash // inequality! // bc of lived in artificial world of borrowed growth, created massive divergence. // min 15:30 richard koo would not agree that central banks are the only game in town. central banks have complained abt austerity gov. // min 20 - Feds intellectually inflexible. comfort zone. self-regulation & great moderation. // reflation didnt work bc no fixed fundamentals // perfect storm! lost trust.
New  Normal  financial  repression  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  secular  stagnation  GFC  credit  bubble  book  western  world  emerging  middle  class  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Paul  Krugman  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Joseph  Stiglitz  distortion  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  system  retirement  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  far-right  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Pact  Schuldenbremse  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  reflate  reflation  trust  trustagent  distrust  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  public  sentiment  public  perception  bank  bailout  Japan  Abenomics  AIIB  IMF  China  BRIC  self-regulation  Great  Moderation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
From Ticker - S&P: QE is driving inequality between the generations
Quantitative easing (QE) stabilized the economy but also exacerbated wealth disparity between rich and poor, mainly by boosting financial asset prices and house prices. //&! [ LOW PAY MINIMUM WAGE JOB CREATION ] During the U.K.’s recent “jobs-rich, pay-poor” economic recovery, strong employment gains were accompanied by a further rise of already high wage dispersion and an ever-growing share of part-time employment in lower income groups. //&! In the context of the tight housing market, low interest rates and QE are among the drivers behind the widening wealth and income gap between younger and older generations and between those on the housing ladder and those not on it. //&! Inequality is damaging! // bit.ly/1QtauyZ - Bank of England's recovery policies have increased inequality, finds S&P [...] spending too much on rent, not able to save for deposit! //&! bit.ly/1PPyEYl &! ti.me/1sbBtrz
QE  inequality  reflate  reflation  distortion  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  bank  bailout  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  ECB  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  Housing  Crisis  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  budget  deficit  austerity  George  Osborne  income  distribution  poverty  trap  tax  credit  low  pay  low  income  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  part-time  Tories  nasty  party  homeless  homelessness  social  affordable  Conservative  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  Funding  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  economic  history 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Market turmoil: Janet Yellen warns that financial conditions have worsened - business live | Business | The Guardian
[ EVEN JUNK BONDS CAN'T BE SAVED BY QE AND NIRP ANYMORE. were able to rollover year after year but seems the buck has stopped, finally. ] “Financial conditions in the United States have recently become less supportive of growth, with declines in broad measures of equity prices, higher borrowing rates for riskier borrowers, and a further appreciation of the dollar. These developments, if they prove persistent, could weigh on the outlook for economic activity and the labor market, although declines in longer-term interest rates and oil prices provide some offset. // >> European high yield spreads have doubled since the ECB moved to neg rates in June '14. Solution? Go more negative. - bit.ly/1SIbMg3 &! Anyone who reached for yield in these securities from 2012-15 is in the red. - bit.ly/1QraRKp &! bit.ly/1nXUDBt //&! See point 8. ZIRP/NIRP is needed to roll over/revolve debt - bit.ly/1O2MRvl
junk  bond  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  creditrating  creditrisk  distortion 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What's holding back the world economy? | Business | The Guardian
[ continued financialisation of economy / faustian pact ] QE and low interest rates have disproportionately created wealth in the financial sector and inflated asset bubbles. It has done little for the real economy. The rules of the market need to be rewritten [...] dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse. In the US, quantitative easing did not boost consumption and investment partly because most of the additional liquidity returned to central banks’ coffers in the form of excess reserves. [...] private investment did not grow [...] [ QE supported only financial sector and zombie banks and corporations, little to nothing went into the real economy for investment in western world ] [ which leads us to say we are still in a banking crisis per se ]
Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  austerity  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  Student  Bubble  loan  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  wage  stagnation  income  growth  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  mortgage  market  NPL  debt  servitude  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  inequality  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  asset  equity  VIX  volatility  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  aggregate  demand  income  redistribution  repo  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  financial  market  GFC  banking  crisis  retail  banking  investment  banking  hot-money  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  BRIC  rent-seeking  rentier  carbon  tax  economic  damage 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
UK trade deficit widens further as exports suffer | Business | The Guardian
Nevertheless, the UK’s goods trade gap with the rest of the world widened by £1.9bn to a record high of £125bn in 2015. Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: “UK exports have clearly struggled in recent months, as they have been hampered by sterling’s overall strength in 2015, particularly against the euro, and moderate global demand. [...] Recent declines in the value of sterling are expected to support exports sales, though the deteriorating global situation could mitigate against an improved exchange rate. [...] “Nonetheless, any progress in reducing the trade deficit is likely to be extremely slow in the near term, leaving the recovery reliant on domestic demand.” [...] [ you can lower your corp tax, but if your country is shitty in business environment ie infrastructure and employee qualifications and immigration ... nobody wants to do business ]
UK  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  budget  deficit  tax  reciepts  2015  2016  recovery  secular  stagnation  underinvestment  business  investment  austerity  economic  history  global  economy  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  foreign  direct  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  Student  Bubble  debt  servitude  discretionary  spending  government  spending  disposable  income  generation  rent  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BOE  property  Housing  Crisis  George  Osborne  competitiveness  productivity  output  gap  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  corporate  tax  rate  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  immigration  migration  Super  Cycle 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
As growth falters, Osborne hopes Mark Carney can keep a lid on interest rates | Business | The Guardian
The chancellor faces lower GDP and lower tax receipts as a result. So it’s vital that consumers’ desire to keep spending isn’t hit by a nasty shock from the Bank [ // Confidence Fairy // ] The Bank of England has downgraded its forecasts for the UK’s GDP growth and the outlook for wages, most likely robbing the exchequer of vital income tax receipts. And without the funds to maintain pensions and health service spending, his critics will gleefully play back the speech from last November during which he declared that Britain was on the road to becoming “the most prosperous and secure of all the major nations of the world”. [...] Yet his words ring hollow when so many of the post-crash problems are still with us, from the burden of high private and public debts to Europe’s rapidly ageing population, which encourage saving over investment, and a reluctance from government and big business to boost capital spending.
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february 2016 by asterisk2a
Amid market turmoil and confusion, there are four key economic trends shaping society
The UK economy currently gets nowhere near its target of 2%. Inflation would decrease the value of current debts, making them less of a burden. In a world without much inflation, it is hard to get wages up. The worse case scenario is that debt costs increase, as prices and wages stagnate. [ ignoring debt and income growth - stagnation at their peril - youtu.be/KIaXVntqlUE - gov is no household budget, Steve Keen + Richard Koo ] [...] And in this age of austerity, these factors will work against governments seeking to reduce the welfare bill. Recent data shows that, in UK cities, growing numbers of low paid jobs have led to rising claims for welfare such as housing benefits, defeating the government’s aims to reduce spending.
economic  history  secular  stagnation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  inflation  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  minimum  wage  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  tax  credit  housing  benefit  working  tax  credit  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  western  world  GDP  wage  inflation  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  inequality  income  inequality  income  redistribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  monetary  system  monetary  theory  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  banks  monetary  velocity  Niall  Ferguson  NPL  junk  bond  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  China  credit  BRIC  output  gap  productivity  industrial  policy  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  property  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  money  supply  faultlines  global  imbalances  recovery  working  poor  Precariat 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Why is the pound falling so sharply? - BBC News
Weak economic data is casting doubt on the future performance of the UK economy, with inflation persistently well below the Bank of England's 2% target and earnings growth slowing down from a six-year high. Earlier this month, figures for November showed that UK industrial output had suffered its sharpest decline since 2013. Looking further ahead, investors are worried about the outcome of a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU. As Andy Scott of foreign exchange services firm HiFX put it: "Concerns over the UK economy and the risk of a Brexit look likely to continue to haunt sterling." Traders are also generally more risk-averse in the light of the global turmoil caused by Chinese market problems and falling oil prices, which makes them reluctant to buck sterling's downward trend.
UK  BOE  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  debtoverhang  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  industrial  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  MPC  energy  policy  energy  price  competitive  competitiveness  STEM  underinvestment  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  corporate  tax  rate  subsidies  subsidizing  secular  stagnation  immigration  migration  job  creation  low  income  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  London  Scottish  Independence  Scottish  referendum  Devolution  Brexit  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  global  economy  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  student  debt  baddebt  NPL  private  debt  economic  history  Niall  Ferguson  democracy  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  precarious  work  Contractor  low  pay  minimum  wage  George  Osborne  Tories  dogma  ideology  Conservative  Party  neoliberal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Profit mean reversion and recession | Credit Writedowns
We are now in the seventh year of a cyclical recovery and bull market. Shares have tripled in that time frame. I would say this means we are much closer to the end of the business cycle than the beginning. Moreover, as Jeremy Grantham is quoted in the Business Insider piece, profits are mean-reverting and right now they are reverting from a phase that is “wildly optimistic” according to Warren Buffett. All of this is taking place against the backdrop of an economy in which wage growth is weak, household debt is still relatively high on a historic basis as a percentage of income and we have no policy room on the monetary side, with limited political appetite for policy on the fiscal side. To me, the pre-conditions for this profits recession speak to downside risk, ....
recovery  business  cycle  financial  cycle  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  Student  Loan  Bubble  car  credit  card  debt  deleveraging  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  austerity  fiscal  policy  economic  history  monetary  policy  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  western  world  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  inequality  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  UK  USA  Schuldenbremse  Pact  sovereign  debt  crisis  Positioning  mainstreet.org  Germany  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  growth  low  income  crony  capitalism  reflate  reflation  Career  Politicians  constituency  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Niedriglohnsektor  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  income  inequality  social  mobility  social  contract  political  theory  income  mobility  Standard  American  Diet  equity  credit  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BRIC  BOE  Fed  Fed  mandate  BOJ  PBOC  distortion  2015  ECB  Super  debt  servitude  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  junk  bond  Taper  QT  irrational  exuberance  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  speculative  bubbles  commodity  prices  Oil  price  inflation  expe 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
In the loop October 2: Flemish separatism, F1 and the Juncker plan by POLITICO Europe
min 17 - behind-the-scenes fight in the European Parliament over the appointment of top managers for the so-called Juncker Plan: a €315 billion EU investment plan. // threat of White Elephants, roads and bridges to nowhere ... only politicians can put themselves in front of photojournalists for photo op. no productive investments into the future. renewable, smart grid, private public paternerships, carbon emission reduction projects ie urbanisation planning projects to half city traffic and put cycling network in place, and zero emission public transportation, ... --- no accountability, no oversight no transparency. risk of corruption, bribery, dirty handshakes, ...
European  Union  technocrat  bureaucrat  Jean-Claude  Juncker  infrastructure  investment  STEM  Research  R&D  underinvestment  fiscal  policy  Pact  fiscal  stimulus  public  investment  business  investment  Schuldenbremse  Politics  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Brussels  European  Parliament  European  Election  2014  European  Commission  Eurobond  PIGS  PIIGSFB  Richard  Koo  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  Germany  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Eurogroup  austerity  Grexit  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  excess  reserves  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ECB  QE  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  corruption  ideology  dogma  campaign  promises  White  Elephant  productive  investment  productivity  Makers  policy  folly  social  contract  political  theory  accountability  transparency  oversight  2015 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Perhaps austerity didn't choke off UK recovery - BBC News
But, as I mentioned, the disclosure that we were a bit richer in the last parliament than we thought is not all fabulous news for the chancellor. He and his Treasury colleagues should probably be anxious that the faster growth did not translate into higher tax revenues. In case you need reminding, George Osborne singularly failed to hit the deficit reduction targets he set himself. But the explanation can no longer be that the economy flatlined, because that's not what happened. So if the higher-than-thought growth in the last parliament left the gap between government revenues and expenditures tens of billions of pounds greater than George Osborne hoped, it also suggests that his aspiration of eliminating the deficit in this parliament may prove equally elusive. //&! Despite strong employment growth, wage growth remained historically weak - the usual link between falling unemployment and rising wages seemed to have been broken. - bbc.in/1OEffcS
trickle-down  economics  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  self-employment  employment  working  poor  precarious  work  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  Niedriglohnsektor  George  Osborne  austerity  economic  history  recovery  budget  deficit  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  credit  bubble  mortgage  market  excess  reserves  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  academics  academia  IMF  Paul  Krugman  Gini  coefficient  inequality  underinvestment  Joseph  Stiglitz  private  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  credit  card  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  low  income  income  distribution  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  productivity  output  gap  Niall  Ferguson  secular  stagnation  underemployed  structural  unemployment  structural  imbalance  faultlines  Impediments  skills  gap 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Nomi Prins-Federal Reserve Transition to Destruction - YouTube
via - http://schiffgold.com/interviews/former-wall-street-insider-some-form-of-bank-bail-ins-will-come-to-us-video/ ||&! QE and ZIRP bad policy, bank and market cuddeling. no mainstreet recovery! trickle-down failed. Private sector can not carry existing minimal momentum forward. policy has not helped people on the ground. // many bubbles created: junk bond/zombie corps, car loans, student loans, property, ... // transition to destruction, volatility is first sign. // market manipulation! // inflated financial system // rise in NPL! where how will they cover that? another bailout? or bail-in. taking depositors haircut. FDIC can't cover that all.
ZIRP  NIRP  book  QE  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  BRIC  China  2015  junk  bond  trickle-down  economics  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  household  debt  UK  USA  BOE  Fed  mandate  Fed  Janet  Yellen  Mark  Carney  MPC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  retail  banking  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  market  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  benbernanke  alangreenspan  dot.com  speculative  bubbles  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  private  debt  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  fiscal  policy  austerity  consumer  debt  credit  card  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debtoverhang  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mainstreet.org  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  crony  capitalism  corporate  debt  bubbles  asset  bubble  correction  mortgage  market  libor  rigging  scandal  trust  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  FX  reserves  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  balance  sheet  recession  Niall  Ferguson  financial  repression  distortion  Pr 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
IMF warns of new financial crisis if interest rates rise | Business | The Guardian
Fund says governments in emerging markets should prepare now for a new credit crunch because of a 10-year corporate borrowing binge [...] “Shocks to the corporate sector could quickly spill over to the financial sector and generate a vicious cycle as banks curtail lending. Decreased loan supply would then lower aggregate demand and collateral values, further reducing access to finance and thereby economic activity, and in turn, increasing losses to the financial sector,” the IMF warns. [...] “Emerging markets must prepare for the adverse domestic stability implications of global financial tightening,” the IMF says.
credit  bubble  2015  Taper  centralbanks  IMF  OECD  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  Richard  Koo  Debt  Super  Cycle  BRIC  AIIB  World  Bank  recovery  global  economy  global  trade  globalization  globalisation  flat  borderless  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  FOMO  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  malinvestment  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  China  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  OPEC  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  western  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  austerity  divergence  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  Niall  Ferguson  Fed  mandate  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  bailout  banking  crisis  crisis  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inequality  Gini  coefficient  NPL  shadow  banking  zombie  corporations  junk  bond  creditrating  distortion  financial  financial  crisis  GFC 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bubble Machine Timeline: Visual Evidence Of The Fed's "Third Mandate" | Zero Hedge
The problem with rushing to combat any sign of economic or financial market turmoil by resorting immediately to counter-cyclical policies is that the creative destruction that would normally serve to purge speculative excess isn’t allowed to operate and so, misallocated capital is allowed to linger from crisis to crisis, making the next boom and subsequent bust even larger than the last.
financial  crisis  financial  cycle  business  cycle  centralbanks  BIS  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Fed  mandate  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  credit  bubble  Debt  Super  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  dot.com  GFC  recovery  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  Boom  and  Bust  distortion  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  bank  bailout  creative  destruction  Failure  market  Career  Politicians  Ben  Bernanke  Greenspan-Put  alangreenspan  Janet  Yellen  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  inequality  Gini  coefficient  social  cohesion  social  tension  social  contract  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  servitude  sovereign  crisis  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  western  world  crony  capitalism  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  corruption  bribery  revolving  door  capitalism  Wall  Street  shared  economic  interest  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  investment  banking  retail  banking  post-capitalism 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Fed has to deal with its own zombie apocalypse
"However, there are pockets of greater weakness like these zombie companies. These pockets are likely to see some more turbulence than overall conditions. Some companies definitely will go out of business." It isn't just the zombies, though, that should worry about higher rates. Corporate America overall has been piling on the debt, which grew 8.3 percent in the second quarter, according to figures the Fed released Friday. [...] Michael Contopoulos, high-yield strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said the high-yield space is a mess no matter what the Fed does. Global economic weakness and deteriorating fundamentals are making it increasingly harder for the Fed to underwrite junk debt through a zero funds rate. [...] Earnings for junk companies have been "incredibly weak," [...] "leverage is at all-time highs" while "defaults and downgrades are creeping into the market." [...] the issues with high-yield could be more secular in nature.
zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Junk  Bond  Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  USA  Richard  Koo  interest  payments  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unconventional  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  distortion  unknown  unkown  complexity  QT  2015  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  credit  ratings  secular  stagnation  western  world  refinancing  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  corporate  debt  leverage  margin  trading  reflate  reflation  productivity  UK  Europe  output  gap  competitive  competition  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  New  Normal  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan's IPO of the Century - Bloomberg View
The privatization couldn't have come at a more opportune moment. Even Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, an early Abenomics cheerleader, said this week that he's "really, really worried" about Tokyo’s chances of ending a two-decade slump. The hope is that the listing, which will be targeted at individual Japanese, will encourage households to invest more of their savings. Perhaps more important, it could enliven the country's stagnant banking sector. Japan is among the developed world's most overbanked nations, with more than 100 sleepy regional players (84 of which are publicly traded) servicing 126 million people. Thanks to the Bank of Japan's zero-interest-rate policies, profit margins are shrinking even faster than the population.
Abenomics  Japan  economic  history  2015  neoliberalism  neoliberal  TPP  Privatisation  liberal  economic  reform  economic  refugee  corporate  governance  culture  society  demographic  bubble  competitive  competition  competitiveness  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  deflation  Yen  BOJ  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  White  Elephants  asset  allocation  R&D  STEM  industrial  policy  China  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  excess  reserves  M3 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why did Japan stop growing? Professor Takeo Hoshi at ANU - YouTube
Blyth argued its culture/society & structural. TPP trade deal might help productivity growth & opening Japan further 2 global trade. & encourage immigration reform. Regulatory reform; stop protection of zombies (gov guarantees, contracts, subsidies), corporate governance. Oversight. Transparency. Also Start-up rate (bottom-up disruption) needs reform (reduce red tape, create start-up/business hubs) // &! What is Abenomics? - youtu.be/_UafzhHzmwE //&! Noriko Hama & Yukio Noguchi "Abenomics and What comes After" - youtu.be/a29FTJXYev0 'unable to share affluence' - income redistribution << marginal propensity to consume, 16% left out of society (poverty), lack of empathy & compassion. BOJ is single lender 2 gov. Career Politicians! Companies have no need 2 borrow/cant force banks 2 lend. //&! min52 Problem of rising long-term interest rates solved w BOJ debt monetisation = inflation (probable near future scenario). &! youtu.be/ArnLHTE0e1g &! youtu.be/wYtJ7Fyn9NA &! youtu.be/AbKeTeb-I_M
Japan  economic  history  lost  decade  lost  generation  ageing  population  demographic  bubble  culture  society  fiscal  stimulus  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  banking  crisis  Exportweltmeister  Germany  subsidies  subsidizing  distortion  asset  bubble  Abenomics  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  fiscal  policy  white  elephants  Richard  Koo  productivity  corporate  culture  corporate  governance  deflationary  deflation  crowding  out  Debt  Super  Cycle  BOJ  Yen  public  investment  productive  investment  stagnation  secular  stagnation  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  disinflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Makers  Career  Politicians  savings  rate  savings  glut  policy  error  marginal  propensity  to  consume  poverty  trap  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  working  poor  precarious  work  inequality  Gini  coefficient  industrial  policy  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  disposable  income  income  distribution  low  income  neoliberalism  neoliberal  part-time  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  underemployed  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomic  policy  JGB  bond  bubble  monetisation  monetization  structural  imbalance  faultlines  Impediments  excess  reserves 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Larry Page says he wants his fortune to go to Elon Musk. Alphabet is the next best thing. - Vox
Big minds with small ideas. = current Silicon Valley. Old Silicon Valley was counter culture. // you will fail anyway, why not fail with something audacious. really. no fluff. no padding. no spin. ... hard science. facts. global problems that affect us all. pollution, global warming, energy efficiency, waste, democracy, health (sick population), ... // don't fear failure.
Elon  Musk  crony  capitalism  capitalism  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  Google  X  Alphabet  Inc.  Google  Inc.  Tesla  Model  S  renewable  energy  Larry  Page  Sergey  Brin  philanthropy  corporate  social  responsibility  corporate  culture  corporate  strategy  zombie  corporations  corporate  values  corporate  governance  shared  economic  interest  mainstreet.org  economic  growth  trickle-down  economics  technological  progress  impact  vision  mission  Silicon  Valley  counter  culture  wantrepreneur  entrepreneurship  society  incrementalism  incremental  Failure 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's Devaluation Becomes Japan's Problem - Bloomberg View
The worsening economy, which voters hoped Abe would have sorted out by now, doesn't help. Inflation-adjusted wages dropped 2.9 percent in June, a sign Monday's second-quarter gross domestic product report for the may be truly ugly. [...] After 961 days, all Abenomics has really achieved is a sharply weaker yen, modest steps to tighten corporate governance and marketing slogans asking companies to hire more women. [...] If Japan offers a cautionary tale, it's that weaker currency alone isn't the answer. If Abe had used the yen's 35 percent plunge since late 2012 to good effect -- passing big reforms on labor flexibility, import tariffs, tax policy, supporting startups, reducing red tape -- Japan might not be facing the prospect of another recession. [ Japan's experience is a red flashing warning light for UK, US and especially Germany. ie uncompetitive Zombie corporations held alive with NIRP, ZIRP, and future new normal low interest rate environment. Where is growth? Silicon Valley. ]
Japan  economic  history  Abenomics  BOJ  2015  China  Yuan  RMB  currency  debasement  currency  war  devaluation  fiscal  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  policy  deflationary  deflation  globalisation  globalization  secular  stagnation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Makers  competitive  competitiveness  Exportweltmeister  competitive  advantage  competition  flat  world  New  Normal  Richard  Koo  Developing  Frontier  Markets  borderless  global  trade  global  economy  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  financial  crisis  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombi  banks  creative  destruction  Silicon  Valley  technological  progress  skill-biased  technological  change  Software  Is  Eating  The  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Future  of  Work  deleveraging  asset  bubble  Wall  Street  reflation  reflate  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  inflation  targeting  Fed  BOE  PBOC  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Robert J. Shiller: "Are We Headed for Another Financial Crisis?" (final edition, as of MAR 8) - YouTube
3rd ed adds bond market. where richard koo explains bond prices are a symptom of the balance sheet recession as is "deflationary." // liquidity trap // predicting turning points is bad business - highlighting fundy skew is easy. // equity bubble BURST? no. bond bubble BURST? no. how abt unreasonable higher interest rates for businesses bc of Taper from Fed long dated bonds into illiquid market. like Koo argues as possibility, which would depress gdp growth further bc of higher capital cost than the economy fundy actually would demand. contributing 2 the secular stagnation. // Other case: Crash of China (too much of a good thing, irrational exuberance) & Western Central Banks have no means 2 ease further & Career Politicians have no guts 2 actually pull out the guns for once 4 intelligent fiscal stimulus w a long-term view (no white elephants & bridges 2 nowhere). // 19:30 status anxiety, Sozialer Abstieg, everyone for himself, austerity, inequality, Software, etc = secular stagnation
Robert  Shiller  financialcrisis  GFC  economic  history  book  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  psychology  confidence  irrational  exuberance  animal  spirit  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ideology  dogma  economic  model  financial  crisis  housing  market  UK  USA  China  Japan  Richard  Koo  deflationary  hunt  for  yield  sustainable  sustainability  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  deflation  secular  stagnation  negative  real  interest  rate  Taper  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  policy  stimulus  crony  capitalism  mainstreet.org  mainstreet  Wall  Street  exploitation  uncertainty  deleveraging  savings  rate  business  investment  Sozialer  Abstieg  inequality  income  inequality  tax  code  capital  gains  fairness  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  public  investment  productive  investment  personal  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  socioeconomic  status  status  anxiety  social  status  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Gesellschaft  solidarity  society  soziologie  sociology  worry  squeezed  middle  class  precariou 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
What Explains the Persistent Lack of Inflation? - YouTube
world is flattening, technology impact, low hanging fruits picked, lack of income growth (lack of disposable income, discretionary spending - squeezed middle class), inequality (Super Rich, 1% and corporations not paying fair share of tax), austerity, austerity (underinvestment, no productive investment for long-term growth), business (underinvestment and no productive investment), low to negative savings rate!, a demographic bubble,
secular  stagnation  western  world  disinflation  deflationary  2015  economic  history  economic  model  economics  of  abundance  marginal  cost  Lohnzurückhaltung  Niedriglohnsektor  income  growth  squeezed  middle  class  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  Abenomics  demographic  bubble  complexity  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  western  society  productivity  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  OECD  output  gap  participation  rate  labour  market  labour  economics  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  IMF  recovery  GFC  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  Super  Rich  1%  crony  capitalism  bailout  inequality  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  trickle-down  economics  economic  damage  macroeconomics  economic  growth  microeconomics  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Schuldenbremse  Pact  PIGS  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
For Sale: Bel Air Home to Be Listed for Record $500M - YouTube
"currency park" an investment for a specific time and purpose ie real estate, not to live in for. // that is the wrong kind of capital flow (inflow) you want as an economy. you want productive investment that creates long-term gainful productive jobs with income growth prospects //
1%  Super  Rich  London  distortion  China  Brazil  capital  gains  investment  management  capital  flow  underinvestment  productive  investment  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  bond  bubble  alternative  investment  fiscal  policy  currency  war  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  western  world  secular  stagnation 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Staatsanleihen und Zinsen: Kommt der nächste Crash? - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Oil price recovery (with eventual future supply shortage because of lack of investment in 2014/15/16), + USA Taper possibility end of 15 early 16 + UK Taper possibility mid to late 16 + End of ECB QE in 2016 due to defeat of deflation scenario (indicators) + People go into higher yielding assets which are still safe. // Hier ist eine Vorhersage: Sollten die Zinsen stark steigen, wäre das der Auslöser für das nächste ökonomische Desaster. Dann würden reihenweise Unternehmen, Privatbürger und ganze Staaten in die Pleite rutschen. // some companies have not used the time 2 reduce debt level, just pushed out the maturity, UK consumer debt & mortgage debt risen since 09/10 - default risk rises with market rates rising, UK Taper & lack luster income growth. // Die Notenbanken, vor allem die EZB, werden deshalb alles daran setzen, einen starken Anstieg zu verhindern. Dass es zwischenzeitlich zu heftigen Anfällen von Nervosität kommt, können sie allerdings nicht unterbinden.
bond  bubble  Taper  Oil  price  2015  asset  allocation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  Fed  BOJ  ECB  BOE  Europe  UK  USA  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  GFC  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mortgage  market  consumer  debt  monetary  policy  Super  Cycle  deleveraging  debt  bubble  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  debtoverhang  M3  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  energy  price  austerity 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Forget the Verizon-AOL deal. The big wave in tech M&A is just getting started. | PandoDaily
The all-cash AOL deal may drain Verizon’s cash reserves, but consider that Verizon generated $10 billion in operating cash flows last quarter – on top of $113 billion in total debt. [W]hats another $4.4 billion in loans, especially when interest rates are as cheap as they’ve ever been? // &! S&P 500 Companies Spend Almost All Profits on Buybacks - bloom.bg/1ECu06U // &! Companies have been gobbling up their own shares at an exceptional rate. There are good reasons to worry about this [...] The companies in the S&P 500 index bought $500 billion of their own shares in 2013, close to the high reached in the bubble year of 2007, and eating up 33 cents of every dollar of cashflow. [...] [$650 billion of cash overseas] [ leading firms to skimp on long-term investment] [firms are being sensible by restraining investment in the face of economic uncertainty] - econ.st/1t90jry //
M&A  Stock  buyback  productive  investment  underinvestment  GFC  bubble  asset  allocation  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  2015  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  Amazon  Apple  s&p500  recovery  austerity  Western  World  secular  stagnation  hunt  for  yield  compensation  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  dividends  offshore  Taper  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  economic  history  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  compensation  package  golden  parachute  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  Moore's  Law  capital  expenditure  corporate  investment  uncertainty  Europe  USA  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  PIGS  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  digital  economy  knowledge  economy  job  creation  Industrial  Revolution  2.0 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Solving the productivity puzzle - BBC News
UK productivity growth (as measured by output per hour worked) has been exceptionally weak since 2008. Productivity growth has actually been weak across the developed economies since the Great Recession but especially so in the UK. Beyond those facts though, there is little agreement. The talk is instead of a "productivity puzzle": solving that puzzle is the key to both a lower government deficit and to higher living standards. [...] [I]t could be that the nature of Britain's recovery explains the low productivity growth. Rather than lower productivity leading to lower real wages (as companies cannot afford to increase pay), it may be that lower real wages have encouraged firms to hire workers rather than investing in new equipment. This could have lowered productivity. [...] Much of it feels more traditionally "sociological" than "economic". // 2nd Industrial Revolution - Software is Eating the World, Self-Employment, contractors, Zero Hour Contracts, etc. &! bit.ly/1aRi7Bw
productivity  output  gap  recovery  GFC  Western  World  UK  Service  Sector  Jobs  Services  Industry  Share  Economy  STEM  Niedriglohnsektor  Manufacturing  Industrial  Revolution  policy  Robotics  deflationary  secular  stagnation  OECD  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  business  investment  business  confidence  austerity  fiscal  policy  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetary  policy  algorithm  automation  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  borderless  flat  globalisation  globalization  competitive  Europe  USA  China  Asia  BRIC  Russia  Latin  America  digital  precarious  work  working  poor  poverty  squeezed  middle  class  coldprogression  cold  progression  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Super  Rich  productive  investment  1%  speculative  bubbles  liquidity  trap  debtoverhang  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  property  bubble  demographic  bubble  complexity  incomplete  information  lost  decade  lost  generation  Abenomics  Japan  uncertainty  distrust  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  trust  trustagent  policy  folly  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  academia  sociology  sentiment  consumer  confidence  fear  anxiety  status  anxiety  crony  capitalism  social  co 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Marc Andreessen on innovation and diversity | Fortune - YouTube
Public Market became cautious '14/'15: oil price slump + China + Russia + secular stagnation of the west in general (productivity gap & output gap), Abenomics, negative bond yields for gov debt and nearly 0 for corporate AAA debt, deflationary pressures in UK (0% inflation last 2 quarters), Europe (steady decline of M3 & issuance of new debt), & USA (with deflationary pressures as well). macroeconomic indicators do signal caution, because despite all the efforts (throwing the bathtub at the problem; ECB installing negative yield 4 overnight bank deposits with them) from central banks (NIRP, QE, POMO & other policies), the economic engine of the world & the west is still not going into 3rd or higher. // & Andreesen's argument, against, that tech is in bubblish territory, is, that in comparison with '99/'00 & the Public Markets current caution; (re-)investment (GOOG 11bn '14) & share buybacks (IBM, MSFT) schemes & dividends payout dwarf VC & growth rounds in tech by several magnitudes.
2015  IPO  M&A  Wall  Street  shareholder  shareholder  value  Silicon  Valley  bubbles  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  recovery  GFC  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  Fed  Public  Market  Private  Market  hunt  for  yield  single-class  share  structure  Marc  Andreessen  Venture  Capital  Unicorn  economic  history  macroeconomics  debt  bubble  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  distortion  sovereign  debt  crisis  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  Super  Cycle  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Gillmor Gang: Money for Nothing - Gillmor Gang | TechCrunch TV
min 42 // A Round is now a "post-traction" investment aka proven product & business model. A Round is an investment to scale it up, put it up a bunch of gears. // Keith Teare from chat.center (tcrn.ch/1IWFQ1X) people now doing pre-seed, seed, seed prime & bridge funding via existing investors; figuring out Product/Market fit, traction, funnel, etc. Now more than ever a hits driven business. // see also tcrn.ch/1c54UpN // Complexity of phenomenon - symptoms, causes and tangents; biases, selection bias, pattern matching, bidding up hot deals in the private market where the highest bidder will get the deal - irrationality of accepting those valuations and the founders Unicorn-status need, hunt for yield, trendy - the future, when doing 'hard things' becomes fashionable (ie Reality TV, TV Series & a shallow Channel 4's How To Be A Young Billionaire) then beware, negative yields for secure investments (bonds and corp debt), perceived 'conservative' value vs private bid up bubble potential.
Seed  Round  A  Round  traction  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  Silicon  Valley  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  behavioral  finance  bond  bubble  bubbles  equity  bubble  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  complexity  growth  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  pattern  matching  selection  bias  confirmation  bias  bias  Unicorn  Wall  Street  Private  Mutual  Fund  Hedge  Fund  Venture  Capital  savings  glut  productive  investment  business  model  Snapchat  WhatsApp  Instagram  Slack  Uber  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Share  Economy  Services  Industry  Niedriglohnsektor  incomplete  information  economic  history  marginal  cost  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  faultlines  Product/Market  Fit  value  creation  1000  True  Fans  Core  Product  Proposition  differentiate  differentiation 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Inside Out London - The Great Property Race
London, one of the most expensive places on earth to live. // Inside Out London - The Great Property Race - Mark Jordan joins first-time buyers and cash-rich Chinese investors as they race to buy homes in the capital's fast, furious and often cruel market. >> London-mania, speculation, ASIAN individual investors leave flats empty & sell them again after 12-18m after much appreciation of value. Buying just based on the prospect & not one stone put down or even speculating on green fields planning permission 5 years down the road. Insane. // &! Existing owners building owners are in a Millionaire Basement Wars - bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05r86yg // Think about all that money being invested long-term into productive investments (STEM) creating current & future opportunity. Lowering the output & productivity gap of UK! Once, a high rise is finished, there are no jobs there that generate tax income from revenue/profit generation - that of a worker or company of the 21st century.
speculative  bubbles  Super  Rich  1%  London  London  Start-up  Scene  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  QE  secular  stagnation  savings  glut  incomplete  information  economic  history  liquidity  trap  asset  bubble  Wall  Street  ASIA  affordable  housing  property  bubble  UK  Betongold  Beton  Gold  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  productive  investment  macroprudential  policy  BOE  BOJ  Private  Equity  symptom  unintended  consequences  recovery  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  Makers  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  policy  folly  policy  error  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  borderless  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  job  creation  research  human  progress  Philosophy  status  anxiety  superficial 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Would you rather be a real millionaire or a paper billionaire? The psychology of unicorns and the toll on Q1 returns | PandoDaily
And yet total cash going to venture backed companies was a whopping $17.7 billion– up over the $12.6 billion raised in the same period last year. But here’s the thing: Only $11.3 billion of that came from venture firms, throwing into question whether we should even still keep using the adjective “venture-backed” to describe the category. The disparity shows just how much more money is coming from non-VCs like hedge funds, private equity, mutual funds, and sovereign wealth funds, who have watched the private valuation growth of Facebook and the rest of the deca-corns and are desperately trying to get a stake in private companies before they IPO. [...] Things have gotten strange for VCs — and in turn, entrepreneurs — and the climate doesn’t seem to be improving
Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  growth  round  Venture  Capital  Silicon  Valley  Unicorn  hunt  for  yield  Sovereign  Wealth  Fund  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bubble  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Super  Cycle  savings  glut  liquidity  trap  productive  investment  speculative  bubbles  Wall  Street  incomplete  information  market  confirmation  bias  pattern  matching  pattern  recognition  selection  bias  bias  behavioral  finance 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Deutschlands Handelsbilanz: Die Probleme einer Exportnation - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In Deutschland wird zu wenig investiert, zugleich spielen wir bei den Exporten bald in unserer eigenen Liga. Die Unternehmenslobby fordert eine Senkung der Lohnkosten. Doch genau das Gegenteil wäre die richtige Lösung. // &! Müllers Memo: Der Kapitalismus funktioniert nicht mehr - Die Weltwirtschaft leidet immer noch stark unter den Folgen der Krise von 2008. Der Hauptgrund: Die Unternehmen investieren viel weniger als früher.
business  confidence  trustagent  trust  GFC  recovery  deleveraging  global  imbalances  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Europe  ECB  economic  history  IMF  austerity  OECD  business  investment  productive  investment  productivity  output  gap  UK  Wall  Street  Germany  France  infrastructure  investment  BRIC  Asia  Latin  America  borderless  globalisation  flat  world  globalization  savings  glut  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  unintended  consequences  Taper  USA  Fed  BOE  Abenomics  BOJ  lost  decade  lost  generation  youth  unemployment  precarious  work  Precariat  Service  Sector  Jobs  Share  Economy  Services  Industry  Industrial  Revolution  Future  of  Software  Is  Eating  The  automation  Robotics  AI  artificial  intelligence  augmented  intelligence  algorithm  Super  Rich  1%  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  living  wage  working  poor  Exportweltmeister  crony  capitalism  exploitation  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  consumer  confidence  demographic  bubble  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  secular  stagnation  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC News - 'Colossal' spending cuts to come, warns IFS
Current Austerity focus is running UK economy into the ground. Not towards the futures. Yes to cut waste. Yes to trim here and there. But there is no sight of investment into the future; ie pushing apprenticeships and industrial (STEM, research) practical skill set (dual college & university courses modelled after Germany), living wage, reduction on reliance on service sector and consumption. There is no inspiration. No future in his head. Just managing the status quo. Moving the pieces. Just like any other career politician. &! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30318870
austerity  George  Osborne  general  election  2015  UK  recovery  education  policy  Year  of  Code  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  industrial  policy  fairness  Gerechtigkeit  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  Toff  Establishment  No  Representation  Super  Rich  Privileged  1%  tax  free  income  disposable  income  productivity  output  gap  liquidity  trap  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  living  wage  working  poor  child  poverty  food  poverty  poverty  public  health  policy  public  health  sick  population  NHS  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  STEM  apprenticeships  un-college  education  bubble  Liberal  Arts  democracy  Democratic  Process  Career  Politicians  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  GFC  debtoverhang  deleveraging  flat  globalisation  globalization  competitive  competitiveness  comparative  advantage  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  war  for  talent 
december 2014 by asterisk2a
Autumn Statement 2014: Osborne's Cuts 'Will See Public Spending Fall To Lowest Level In 80 Years'
Tony Dolphin, senior economist at the Institute for Public Policy and Research, warned that Osborne's planned cuts were "implausible". "Given the scale of cuts in the public sector, [the OBR] can only make its growth forecast add up by assuming that consumer demand is boosted by households taking on more debt - and at an unprecedented pace. "Extraordinarily, the OBR thinks that by 2019 the household sector will have a financial deficit twice as big as in 2007 and 2008 when the financial crisis hit. As result, the household debt-to-income ratio is forecast 2 rise beyond its pre-crisis peak 2 over 180%. "This is pretty implausible. If the next government tries 2 follow the deficit reduction path set out in the Autumn Statement, it can only succeed in the short-term because the household sector takes on debt @ a faster pace than it did before the financial crisis. [this warning was heeded some years ago alrdy that consumer&corp would have to take on debt to spend to keep GDP # up!!!]
austerity  UK  George  Osborne  economic  history  David  Cameron  general  election  2015  fairness  Liberal  Democrats  Conservative  Party  Labour  Party  Super  Rich  1%  Privileged  Establishment  No  Representation  Toff  fiscal  policy  Democratic  Process  democracy  tax  free  income  Budget  Gerechtigkeit  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  compromise  Career  Politicians  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  recovery  GFC  Lohnzurückhaltung  working  poor  Services  Industry  service  economy  service  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  sticky  wages  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  minimum  wage  productivity  output  gap  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  Year  of  Code  industrial  policy  job  creation  disposable  income  Precariat  precarious  Zero  Hour  Contract  economics  market  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  GDP  economic  growth  zombie  corporations 
december 2014 by asterisk2a
IAMA: Christopher Hitchens | reddit's top ten questions - YouTube
moral hero, grit and grain: book "a struggle for power." many minutes in 'working class adopting capitalism without it's cruelties.' corporations, politicians, there got to be transparency & accountability. avoiding ecological, environmental & economic disaster, exploitation, secrecy, misery @ the workplace & parasitic behaviour (leeching out the life of the host, the planet, till death). end of video; debate, debating, speech, rhetoric and flair; tip - improv. Socratic method; process of elimination, eliminating all questions a good means of ordering the mind. Christopher Hitchens 1949-2011 BBC tribute http://youtu.be/TsUSb13m5VY < Religion "ur created sick & commanded to be well," and talking about Cancer. + It is unbelievable that Religion is still a power of force and way of thinking in Political and Policy circles. // Paxman meets Hitchens - http://youtu.be/Y-s9AyNQyCw | + on ABC1 Lateline http://youtu.be/yI30VwPZm-o - see related content, other interviews during his ill health.
Christopher  Hitchens  book  capitalism  USA  Republic  revolution  history  accountability  corporatism  lobby  workplace  parasitic  behaviour  corporate  governance  corporate  culture  working  poor  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  skill-biased  technological  change  revolving  door  Lobbying  lobbyist  Career  Politicians  zombie  corporations  corporations  corporate  media  Politics  Public  Policy  unknown  unknowns  complexity  unintended  consequences  working  class  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  transparency  Germany  Europe  UK  Public  Life  debate  speeches  speech  rethorik  rhetoric  improv  Socratic  method  Religion  cancer 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Kreditklemme trotz EZB-Programmen: Die Banken sind unschuldig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Milan und Sufi sind nicht die ersten, die auf diese Idee kamen. Richard Koo aus Japan entwickelte schon in den neunziger Jahre die These von einer Bilanz-Rezession. Wenn Länder, Firmen und Haushalte überschuldet sind, dann wollen sie sich einfach nur noch entschulden, egal wie günstig die Kredite sind. Koo warnte davor, dass alle gleichzeitig die Schulden abbauen. In Japan hörte man auf ihn. Dort entschuldeten sich die Firmen und die Haushalte, und es verschuldete sich der Staat. In Europa bauen alle ihre Schulden gleichzeitig ab: Staat, Unternehmen, Haushalte. Koo glaubt daher auch, dass wir in eine weit schlimmere Lage geraten werden als Japan. Wir sind auf Deflation programmiert. Koos Thesen sind plausibel. Sie sind aber keine fundierte ökonomische Analyse. Genau das haben jetzt Milan und Sufi geliefert - zumindest für die USA. Wenn sich diese Ergebnisse auch bei uns bestätigen sollten, dann hieße das: Wir machen in Europa so ziemlich alles falsch.
Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  Japan  deflation  deflationary  USA  UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  economic  history  GFC  sovereign  crisis  consumer  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  QE  monetization  monetisation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  monetary  transmission  mechanism  service  deleveraging  2014  recovery  greatrecession  greatdepression  Europe  PIGS  Neuverschuldung  Germany  austerity  IMF  book  lost  generation  lost  decade  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB senkt Leitzins und beschließt Minuszinsen für Banken - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat ihren Leitzins auf ein Rekordtief gesenkt und erstmals einen negativen Einlagensatz beschlossen. Angesichts der zuletzt sehr niedrigen Inflationsrate wird der Zins, zu dem sich die Geschäftsbanken bei der Notenbank Geld leihen können, um 0,10 Punkte auf 0,15 Prozent gesenkt, wie die EZB am Donnerstag nach ihrer Ratssitzung in Frankfurt mitteilte. Der Einlagensatz, zu dem Banken kurzfristig Geld bei der Notenbank parken können, wird erstmals in den negativen Bereich gedrückt. Er sinkt von bisher null Prozent auf minus 0,10 Prozent. Der Zins für kurzfristige Ausleihungen bei der Notenbank vermindert sich von 0,75 auf 0,40 Prozent. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-entscheidung-kredite-und-senkung-des-leitzins-a-973657.html ""Die Banken leiden nicht unter vermeintlich zu hohen Notenbankzinsen, sondern unter dem hohen Bestand fauler Kredite, an dem Negativzinsen nichts ändern." + !! http://youtu.be/kKO_yxP3dyQ !!
deflation  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  ECB  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  2014  ZIRP  OMT  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  deposit  levy  New  Normal  financial  repression  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  Europe  Germany  faultlines  recovery  policy  error  policy  folly  Makers  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  GFC  lost  decade  lost  generation  long-term  unemployment  banking  union  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  2015  NPL  non-performing  loan  economic  history  LTRO  assetbackedsecurities  Sterilization 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Dax knackt 10.000 Punkte: Rekord wegen billigen Gelds von EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Erstmals überspringt der Dax die Marke von 10.000 Punkten. Das beweist erneut, wie sehr der deutsche Leitindex vom billigen Geld der Notenbank abhängig ist - und wie schnell die gute Stimmung an der Börse vorbei sein kann. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/dax-steigt-ueber-10-000-punkte-auf-neuen-rekordstand-a-972849.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/geldanlage-bei-niedrigzinsen-gold-immobilien-einen-jaguar-a-973671.html ""Wohin also jetzt mit den Ersparnissen?"" +++ Spekulationsblasen: Wirtschaftsweiser warnt vor Gefahren der Niedrigzinsen - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ezb-wirtschaftsweiser-wieland-warnt-vor-spekulationsblasen-a-975400.html +++ Niedrigzinsen: Schäuble befürchtet Immobilienblase in Deutschland - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/zinsen-schaeuble-befuerchtet-immobilienblase-in-deutschland-a-976154.html
asset  bubble  Betongold  Beton  Gold  ZIRP  QE  OMT  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  asset  allocation  property  bubble  London  PIGS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity-trap  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  hunt  for  yield  New  Normal  financial  repression  2014  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  banking  union  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  macroprudential  policy  Politics  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  austerity  fiscal  policy  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  faultlines  imbalance  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  lost  decade  lost  generation  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  Wolfgang  Schäuble 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - When will the UK pay its way in the world?
In absolute terms it has been impossible for UK debts to fall. >> Now what was a little worrying was that the deficit on the current account reached 5.6% of GDP, or economic output, in the third quarter of 2013 and fell to just a little bit lower, 5.4%, in the fourth quarter. That 5.6% was - ahem - something of a milestone: it was the biggest quarterly deficit since records began in 1955. And it explains why the record aggregate indebtedness of the UK has been falling so slowly, and is still not much below 500% of GDP on the Mckinsey measure (though see my previous blog). [...] UK's - limp trading performance - for YEARS! ... COMPETING against BRICs, Europe, G8, ... now and in the future competing with MINT countries too ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MINT_countries ). [...] "We have not got forever to reconstruct our economy and become a bit more like the European export emperor, Germany."
UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  sovereign  crisis  private  consumer  bubble  jubilee  monetization  household  public  debtoverhang  monetisation  restructuring  austerity  current  account  deficit  economic  history  2014  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  public  policy  financial  repression  New  Normal  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  deflationary  productivity  output  gap  competitiveness  knowledge  worker  skill-biased  technological  change  skill  capital  skills  London  White-collar  Blue-collar  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  value  creation  Industrial  globalisation  globalization  competitive  advantage  comparative  advantage  21stcentury  BRIC  MINT  Europe  free  trade  Germany  exports  export 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Wie Europa Schulden loswerden kann - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[Rogoff & Reinhart advocating financial repression] [...] [Because Austerity didn't work.] Tatsächlich habe die europäische Wirtschaftspolitik - die Haushaltsdefizite senkt und Strukturreformen für mehr Wachstum durchführt - recht wenig getan, um den Schuldenberg wirklich zu verringern. Die Politik könnte die Last für die nächsten Jahre sogar verschlimmert haben, sagen viele Volkswirte. Die Sparpolitik hat das Wachstum überraschend stark beeinträchtigt. Während die Hinweise darauf, dass die Strukturreformen tatsächlich die Wirtschaft beflügeln, eher überschaubar ausfallen. Stattdessen sinken Einkommen, Gewinne und Steuereinnahmen, was die Schuldenlast immer schwerer erträglich macht.
debt  servicing  sovereign  debt  crisis  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  Europe  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  liquidity-trap  QE  KennethRogoff  liberal  economic  reform  economic  history  MarioDraghi  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  youth  unemployment  austerity  IMF  Japan  UK  USA  budget  deficit  France  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  New  Normal  PIMCO  Mohamed  El-Erian  debt  jubilee  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  private  debt  public  debt  household  debt  carmenreinhart  WallStreet  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  communication  babyboomers  haircut  PIGS  toobigtofail  TBTF  Richardkoo 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
Five Years After Lehman, BIS Ex-Chief Economist Warns "It's Worse This Time" | Zero Hedge
The share of "leveraged loans" or extreme forms of credit risk, used by the poorest corporate borrowers, has soared to an all-time high of 45% - 10 percentage points higher than at the peak of the crisis in 2007. + http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-14/record-high-grade-leverage-means-pik-toggle-lbo-debt-back-and-worse-ever // The Bank Of International Settlements Warns The Monetary Kool-Aid Party Is Over www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-23/bank-international-settlements-warns-monetary-kool-aid-party-over ""central banks must head for the exit and stop trying to spur a global economic recovery... cheap and plentiful central bank money had merely bought time, warning that more bond buying would retard the global economy’s return to health by delaying adjustments to governments’ and households’ balance sheets." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10310598/BIS-veteran-says-global-credit-excess-worse-than-pre-Lehman.html
unemployment  employment  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  ope  reflation  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  carmenreinhart  BOJ  LBO  balancesheet  policy  folly  QE  liquidity  2013  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  political  error  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  centralbanks  liberal  economic  reform  faultlines  GFC  monetary  theory  exuberance  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  global  economy  monetary  stimulus  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  liquidity-trap  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  benbernanke  bank  crisis  Abenomics  rebalancing  China  greatrecession  policy  error  productivity  LTRO  NIRP  OMT  Fed  communication  economic  history  Super  Cycle  stagflation  leverage  KennethRogoff  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  BIS  POMO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance  fiscal  deficit 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
This short-term thinking will lead to huge long-term damage - MoneyWeekMoneyWeek
Global acting Companies - steered by Wall Street and EPS (earnings per shares) - are not incentivised to invest into the future of the company, but to keep Wall Street happy till the next quarter and thus keeping their job.
stakeholder  unemployment  lostgeneration  complexity  incentive  short-term  thinking  shareholder  Great  Moderation  output-gap  unintended  consequences  investment  corporate  investment  ZIRP  EPS  WallStreet  zombie  corporations  financial  incentive  lostdecade  share  buyback  corporate  governance 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau über die Pläne für eine Bankenunion - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die geplante Bankenunion kommt zu spät für die gegenwärtige Krise - denn ohne eine Änderung der EU-Verträge wird sie nicht funktionieren. Der Euro-Zone droht ein Jahrzehnt der Stagnation, weil es für Unternehmen in Südeuropa kaum noch Kredite gibt.
Politics  GFC  Europe  European  Commission  zombie  banks  recapitalisation  New  Normal  liquidity-trap  europeanunion  Troika  banking  union  banking  crisis  ECB  zombie  corporations  political  folly  lostdecade  policy  error  policy  folly  lostgeneration  economic  history  financial  repression  creditcrunch  political  error  sovereign  debt  crisis  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  austerity  USA  deleveraging  toobigtofail  systemicrisk  Richardkoo  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Junk's heyday is here and now - YouTube
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-09/deutsche-bank-we-fully-understand-why-authorities-wouldnt-want-free-markets-operate- "We would stress that we fully understand why the authorities wouldn't want free markets to operate today as the risk of a huge global default and unemployment cycle would still be very high. However their intervention has a cost in our opinion. Socially this might be worth paying but we do think it exists."
bankruptcy  cycle  unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  zombie  banks  fixed  income  miltonfriedman  BOJ  artificial  demand  Insolvenzverschleppung  QE  lostgeneration  demand  and  supply  property  bubble  hayek  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  bubble  default  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  debt  monetization  centralbanks  insolvency  cycle  Free  Lunch  IMF  default  cycle  GFC  refinancing  corporate  debt  haircut  unintended  consequences  high  yield  debt  Student  Loan  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  default  rate  credit  bubble  greatrecession  lostdecade  NIRP  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  monetarism  sovereign  debt  crisis  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  default  scenario  ZIRP  Junk  Bonds 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Van Jones: Protecting Society from Corporate 'Tyranny' - YouTube
Van Jones, Founding President of Rebuild the Dream, criticizes the influence corporations and special interests have on our political system. Jones argues that "the Tea Party is correct, our liberties are under threat," but their "negative" rhetoric is misguided.

***

In 2010, the United States Supreme Court held in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission that laws prohibiting corporate and union political expenditures were unconstitutional. Citizens United made it legal for corporations and unions to spend from their general treasuries to finance independent expenditures, but did not alter the prohibition on direct corporate or union contributions to federal campaigns; those are still prohibited.

Wikipedia ...
Citizens  United  history  democrats  republicans  barackobama  teaparty  Teap  corporations  conglomerate  justice  liberal  economic  reform  liberalism  liberty  democracy  election2012  USA  politics 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Attacks paid for by big business are 'driving science into a dark era' | Science | The Observer
She confessed that she was now "scared to death" by the anti-science movement that was spreading, uncontrolled, across the US and the rest of the western world.

"We are sliding back into a dark era," she said. "And there seems little we can do about it. I am profoundly depressed at just how difficult it has become merely to get a realistic conversation started on issues such as climate change or genetically modified organisms."

Oreskes is co-author, with Erik Conway, of Merchants of Doubt,
"Our present crisis over the rise of anti-science has been coming for a long time and we should have seen it coming," adds Oreskes.

Heads They Win, Tails We Lose: How Corporations Corrupt Science at the Public's Expense,

the worst excesses of the anti-science lobbies are confined to the US. However, there are signs that their influence is spreading,
status  quo  public  policy  anti-science  capitalism  transparency  corruption  corporations  book  folly  policy  politics  GMO  climatechange  science  lobby  policy-makers  USA 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Maturity Wall Shrinks $196 Billion in 15 Months: Credit Markets - Bloomberg.com
Last year’s recovery in credit markets prompted $239.3 billion of speculative-grade bond sales, reducing chances that debt-laden companies would be trapped as their securities matured. The 12-month global default rate for junk debt fell to 9.9 percent in the first quarter from 13 percent at the end of 2009 and will drop to 2.4 percent a year from now, New York- based Moody’s Investors Service said in a report.

“The openness of the high-yield bond market has been the major force here,” said Gautam Kakodkar, a New York-based credit strategist at Barclays Plc. “What we’ve seen so far is an incredible flow of money to high-yield bonds and loans, creating a lot of pent up demand.”

Elsewhere in credit markets, the extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds rather than government debt was 146 basis points yesterday, the lowest since November 2007, the Merrill Global Broad Market Corporate Index shows. Yields averaged 4.013 percent, the lowest since March 30.
credticrunch  credit  market  leverage  household  companies  corporations  usa  2010  debt  deleveraging  loan  creditcrisis  creditcrunch 
april 2010 by asterisk2a

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