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asterisk2a + confidence   347

(112) Renegade Inc. & What to expect in 2018 - YouTube
UK BOE QE trap - the road to normalisation - without counter engagement (productive investment), and further Austerity, tax evasion, inequality, income gap, secular stagnarion, less money to spend for the average joe === very bumpy uncertain ride. ... and add Brexit even more uncertainty. OUCH. real growth for real people not gonna happen. // see also RAWerden Richard Andreas Werner for bank reform (local non-profit et al) // also consumers will hold back. especially w trickle down of bad news. job losses here and there retail inflation wage growth etc. creating a impression of a malaise especially for the 50% who voted remain. and 30% who didnt go vote. // see also news 8or7 out of 10 workers broke/permanently skinned - and consumer debt at 2008 high //
BOE  QE  trap  Richard  Koo  UK  Austerity  productive  investment  underinvestment  productivity  Brexit  Steve  Keen  book  RAWerner  debt  bubble  asset  alternative  WallStreet  GDP  output  gap  uncertainty  2018  business  consumer  confidence  fiscal  policy  NHS  monetary  Carillion  PFI  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  credit  malaise  secular  stagnation  stagflation 
february 2018 by asterisk2a
(2195) Mark Blyth Telling The US Senate That Austerity Policy Is Wrong - YouTube
Mark Blyth & Makers v Takers & Erbschaft & asset & capital tax // wolfgang schäuble George Osborne David Cameron // >> Growth cures debt, cuts / austerity causes debt!!!
Mark  Blyth  UK  USA  Austerity  taxation  corporate  corporatism  welfare  state  NHS  income  tax  GFC  asset  capital  recovery  underinvestment  secular  stagnation  bond  bubble  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  productivity  budget  Super  Rich  Plutocracy  trickle-down  Oligarchy  1%  10%  profit  maximisation  shareholder  immigration  gini  Coefficient  FX  Forex  confidence  fairy  globalisation  evasion  avoidance  HMRC  bank  bailout  badbank  bad  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  PIGS  Policy  IMF  BIS  ECB  Fed 
july 2017 by asterisk2a
Kansas, Sam Brownback, and the Trickle-Down Implosion
USA  UK  Trickle-down  tax  evasion  avoidance  corporate  rate  taxation  welfare  state  Austerity  confidence  fairy  economic  history  neoliberal  neoliberalism  capitalism  education  policy  social  mobility  income  inequality  gini  coefficient  working  poor  precariat  poverty  trap 
july 2017 by asterisk2a
Consumer confidence collapsed after general election, YouGov finds | Business | The Guardian
GE2017  Brexit  consumer  confidence 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
Yes this really is the end of Tory austerity – because it was never about economics in the first place | The Independent
[private sector will pick up the tap - the households did, but not corporations! bc long-term ROI growth in not attractive in the west w secular stagnation! see Richard Koo ] But it was a very long time coming. It became clear within a year of George Osborne’s 2010 “emergency budget”, which forced through huge cuts in capital budgets and an intense squeeze on Whitehall departments and welfare spending, that the austerity medicine was hurting, not helping.

The economy was flatlining, teetering on the verge of recession. Whether this was primarily due to the crisis in the neighbouring eurozone and a spike in global oil prices or because the negative knock-on impact of the government’s domestic spending cuts was bigger than initially thought is still debated by economists.
Austerity  Brexit  GE2017  Confidence  Fairy  GFC  bank  bailout  welfare  state  living  standard  deficit  debt  government  household  personal  loan  credit  card  creditcard  underinvestment  inequality  economic  history  social  mobility  income  growth  wage  disposable  discretionary  spending  gini  coefficient  tax  evasion  avoidance  taxation  corporate  taxcut  capital  labour  Productivity  output  gap  recovery  secular  stagnation  infrastructure  investment  Privatisation  Theresa  May  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Ideology  neoliberal  neoliberalism  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bond  bubble  asset  reflation  housing  distortion  malinvestment  stimulus  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  RichardKoo  Koo  Richard 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
First fall in consumer spending for almost 4 years
Consumer spending has fallen on an annual basis for the first time in almost four years [...] Adjusting for inflation, real consumer spending by British consumers on Visa debit, credit and prepaid cards in May was 0.8 per cent lower than in the same month last year. Visa said that seasonally adjusted spending was 1.8 per cent lower in May compared to April. The figures are unofficial, but suggest that sluggish economic growth continued in the second quarter, after a first quarter in which the UK grew at the slowest rate in the G7. [...] household consumption, which accounts for more than 60 per cent of the economy. [ 80 Services and Consumption 20 manufacturing ] /&! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/11/new-economic-woes-put-theresa-may-fresh-pressure/ - The crucial services sector stands on the brink of a contraction
UK  Brexit  GE2017  Consumer  Confidence  creditcard  credit  card  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  inflation  living  standard  wage  growth  recession  Economy  2017  secular  stagnation  deflation  deflationary  BOE  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  Austerity  Services  materialism  Shopping  Consumerism  consumerist  household  debt  mortgage  Manufacturing 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
Britain’s economy is broken. We desperately need new ideas | Tom Kibasi | Opinion | The Guardian
If the country was economically bankrupt in 2010, it is intellectually bankrupt in 2017. On the eve of the general election, politicians of all parties have rarely been so devoid of progressive ideas [...] Yet in substance, May’s approach remains mere tinkering at the edges of economic policy. The Conservatives remain stubbornly allergic to – or ignorant of – Keynesian macroeconomics. [...] [and housing and real estate lending distorting the lending picture. houses are not productive! R&D, and firms are. and creating long-term jobs w real incomes to spend (not remortgaging your home bc of housing bubble]
Brexit  GE2017  London  Housing  Bubble  piggybank  Forex  British  Pound  recovery  GFC  Manufacturing  Services  Consumerism  Zombie  Austerity  underinvestment  confidence  fairy  Productivity  output  gap  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  banking  investment  distortion  lending  property  UK  Living  Standard  wage  income  growth  inflation  £ 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
Car finance deals soar to new record - BBC News
The Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) have raised concerns about such deals.
The Bank's worry is in relation to levels of consumer borrowing.
However Adrian Dally, head of motor finance at the FLA, said lenders were behaving responsibly.
"We do not share their concerns," he told the BBC. "Lending is responsible. This is a sustainable model going forwards." [...] That is largely because motorists can hand their cars back if they can no longer afford payments.
Ultimately it is the car manufacturers who carry the risk on such deals, as they guarantee second-hand values.
UK  consumer  debt  household  borrowing  creditcard  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  Brexit  confidence  credit  card  auto  loan  car  lease  protection  BOE  wage  growth  inflation  economy  FCA  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  bubble  automotive  industry  insolvency 
may 2017 by asterisk2a
UK households’ savings fall to record low in warning sign for economy | Money | The Guardian
Figures suggest people are increasingly dipping into their savings as disposable income also falls // Disposable incomes fall too
Good news: Current account deficit shrinks - https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/mar/31/uk-growth-report-eurozone-inflation-markets-ftse-100-business-live
Brexit  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  household  debt  consumer  savings  rate  creditcard  credit  card  UK  Confidence  wage  growth  inflation  recovery  secular  stagnation  Consumerism  BOE  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  productivity  output  gap  skills  social  mobility  underinvestment 
april 2017 by asterisk2a
Scottish ministers reviewing investment strategy after PFI blow | Politics | The Guardian
PFI is like a rent-to-own scheme for government. paying double or more in the end just to have not debt frontloaded on public balance sheet. 'public debt explosion.'
PFI  infrastructure  Investment  Austerity  confidence-fairy  confidence  fairy  NHS 
december 2016 by asterisk2a
Consumer and business confidence tumbles in November, surveys find | Business | The Guardian
The GfK consumer confidence index dropped five points after a two-point fall in October, taking it to minus eight.

Despite recent strong retail sales, the index revealed a sharp nine-point drop in consumer plans for large purchases, spelling bad news for retailers as they gear up for the peak Christmas selling period.
Brexit  consumer  confidence  credit  card  debt  household 
november 2016 by asterisk2a
Collapse in corporation tax receipts pushes public deficit to £10.6bn | Business | The Guardian
Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said the rise in government borrowing underscored the weakness of the UK economy.

“The UK’s ability to generate tax revenue has diminished following the financial crisis, and this underlying weakness is likely to be exacerbated further if the UK economy slows as we predict,” he said, adding it was vital the chancellor offered incentives to “invest, create jobs, and support growth”.
Brexit  business  confidence  consumer  budget  UK  Philip  Hammond  Theresa  May  underinvestment  productivity  output  gap  GFC  recovery  austerity  HMRC  corporate  tax  rate  fiscal  policy  Uncertainty 
october 2016 by asterisk2a
Brexit fallout: top brands pulled from Tescos as food prices set to rise by 5 percent - YouTube
Unilever is anglo-dutch and reports in euros thus fall in £ against euro is a profit/margin squeeze bc internally at unilever they did not protect themselves in FX market w options against eventual Brexit fallout! unilevers internal analysis was apparently for no vote. // & that manufacturing and exports flourish. you have to invest in industry. industry of the future 10 years down the road. which means FDI, internal business investment (rising business confidence uk wide and world wide for international uk businesses), and gov investment w long term plan 10-20 years. for the next gen. explicitly for the next gen. quasi for the 0-40 year olds.
FDI  foreign  direct  investment  British  Pound  £  Sterling  exchange  rate  Brexit  trustagent  business  confidence  consumer  inflation  RPI  CPI 
october 2016 by asterisk2a
Müllers Memo: Die Globalisierung darf nicht scheitern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Das alte Spiel ist im Gange. Ein Land versucht sich Vorteile im internationalem Wettbewerb zu verschaffen. Andere Länder ergreifen Gegenmaßnahmen - und schießen dabei nicht selten übers Ziel hinaus. Bis die nächste Reihe von Handelshürden errichtet wird.
neoliberal  neoliberalism  G20  Free  Trade  TTIP  TTP  NAFTA  CETA  Chicago  School  neoclassical  globalisation  globalization  deregulation  liberal  economic  reform  Centrist  Centrists  Brexit  Donald  Trump  AfD  Front  National  Protectionism  recovery  GFC  bank  bailout  sovereign  debt  crisis  confidence  fairy 
september 2016 by asterisk2a
Owen Jones meets Ha-Joon Chang | The economic argument against neoliberalism - YouTube
Austerity  Confidence  Fairy  Tories  Conservative  Party  George  Osborne  welfare  state  crony  capitalism  bank  bailout  USA  UK  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  Angela  Merkel  Corporate  in-work  benefits  tax  credit  subsidies  evasion  avoidance  book  economic  history  gini  Coefficient  Trickle-down  inequality  CEO  pay  GFC  recovery  squeezed  middle  class  infrastructure  investment  underinvestment  Chicago  School  neoclassical  neoliberal  neoliberalism 
august 2016 by asterisk2a
(Live Ticker) Bank of England cuts rates - BBC News
The post-Brexit economic problems are down to consumer and business uncertainty and will not be solved by introducing monetary stimulus. By lowering interest rates, the Bank of England will distort the economy and potentially reduce growth. Philip Booth. Research director, Institute of Economic Affairs //&! More corp bond buying - bit.ly/2b6sHX3 //&! bit.ly/2aPQJYV &! bbc.in/2axiVxx &! Osborne at it w calling for lower business rate - bit.ly/2aGUYTN &! Noreena Hartz on it - bit.ly/2ayoT5g &! bbc.in/2aWLXY6
BOE  Brexit  Mark  Carney  fiscal  stimulus  Austerity  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  distortion  aggregate  demand  short-fall  Uncertainty  business  confidence 
august 2016 by asterisk2a
Blyth Devastates Congress' Approach to Budget - YouTube
Growth cures debt. Cuts cause debt.
Mark  Blyth  budget  deficit  Austerity  USA  UK  Greece  GFC  Confidence  Fairy  recovery  bank  bailout  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
august 2016 by asterisk2a
Noam Chomsky - The Responsibility of Intellectuals - YouTube
Brexit  bank  bailout  Sovereign  Debt  Crisis  Austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Confidence  Fairy  Political  Class  Career  Politicians  History  book  Noam  Chomsky 
august 2016 by asterisk2a
AUP Events: Economist Mark Blyth and the future of the Eurozone (with slides) - YouTube
Confidence  Fairy  austerity  European  Union  UK  Angela  Merkel  Mark  Blyth  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  PIGS  liberal  economic  reform  Germany  recovery  lost  decade  lost  generation  economic  history  book  GFC  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  non-performing  loan  ECB  trichet  MarioDraghi  OMT  monetary  policy  BIS  contagion  sovereign  debt  crisis  bank  bailout  TBTF 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Are The Bond Market Alarm Bells Ringing? (W/Guest: Neil Irwin) - YouTube
bond prices as forward guidance does not look up. rather down, for western world and global economy.
recovery  GFC  economic  history  bond  bubble  corporate  debt  corporate  bonds  Junk  bond  PIGS  European  Union  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  USA  UK  secular  stagnation  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  squeezed  middle  class  lost  decade  IMF  G20  ChristineLagarde  George  Osborne  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Pact  debt  overhang  Schuldenbremse  balance  sheet  recession  non-performing  loan  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  Richard  Koo  output  gap  productivity  gap  underinvestment  productive  investment  Janet  Yellen  MarioDraghi  trichet  Mark  Carney  Philip  Hammond  China  credit  boom  credit  bubble  1%  10%  20%  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Chicago  School  neoclassical  economics  Japan  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  ECB  Fed  European  Supervision  Millennials  triple-lock  pension  Baby  Boomers  babyboomers  Generationengerechtigkeit  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  Confidence  Fairy  bond  vigilante  David  Cameron  infrastructure  investment  education  policy 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Türkei: Wie die Demokratiekrise das Wirtschaftswachstum bedroht - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Turkey  Erdogan  economic  history  Military  Coup  business  confidence  FDI  foreign  direct  investment 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Brexit: Theresa May says talks won't start in 2016 - BBC News
The process of preparing the UK for Brexit would require "serious and detailed work" [... article 50 not being triggered this year, hiring for brexit ministry 5k£/day lawyers ... triggered early next year ]
Brexit  Article  50  Theresa  May  Angela  Merkel  Germany  UK  European  Union  business  confidence 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Here's Why All Pension Funds Are Doomed, Doomed, Doomed
Given that both The Economist and The Wall Street Journal have covered the impossibility of pension funds achieving their expected returns, this reality cannot be a surprise to anyone in a leadership role. [...] Here's problem #1 in a nutshell: the average public pension fund still expects to earn an average annual return of 7.69%, year after year, decade after decade.

This is roughly triple the nominal (not adjusted for inflation) yield on a 30-year Treasury bond (about 2.65%). The only way any fund manager can earn 7.7% or more in a low-yield environment is to make extremely high risk bets that consistently pay off. //&! Millennials are first gen to have earned less in their 20's than previous gens. - bit.ly/2a9M98K
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  pension  obligation  triple-lock  pension  babyboomers  Baby  Boomers  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  hunt  for  yield  life  insurance  insurance  industry  monetary  policy  Helicopter  Money  monetary  theory  bond  bubble  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  economic  history  recovery  Fed  BOE  ECB  Abenomics  western  world  Japan  BOJ  pension  fund  Beton  Gold  Betongold  property  bubble  asset  allocation  funds  allocation  asset  bubble  Pensioner  pension  scheme  secular  stagnation  austerity  deflation  deflationary  Confidence  Fairy  IMF  OECD  credit  boom  credit  bubble  New  Normal  Great  Moderation  economic  harm  economic  damage  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  distortion 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
A hard truth for Leave voters: Brexit means big government
Britain has seen a renaissance in jobs since 2013, of that there is no doubt. But most of those extra jobs were among the self-employed or fell into categories that can only be described as insecure and low-paid. When companies finally took the plunge and advertised full-time jobs from 2014 onwards, around a third went to migrants. [...] It is this mostly older group of workers across the developed world, worried about their pay, pensions and conditions of employment, that want to slam the brakes on globalisation and reject the remedy proposed by big business: greater labour-market flexibility and only limited job protections. [ Globalisation as a great rebalancing of the world economy between the west and the rest (BRIC and co) ] [...] Only government can provide the cure, with a commitment to invest where the private sector cannot or will not go.
globalisation  globalization  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  job  security  job  insecurity  self-employment  neoliberal  neoliberalism  liberal  economic  reform  Agenda  2010  Zero  Hour  Contract  OECD  BRIC  USA  UK  Germany  France  economic  history  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  protectionism  Brexit  exploitation  crony  capitalism  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  immigration  migration  Philip  Hammond  austerity  Workers  Union  Workers  Rights  Trade  Union  Theresa  May  Conservative  Party  nasty  Tories  budget  deficit  neoclassical  economics  Chicago  School  deflation  deflationary  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  Richard  Koo  free  free  agreement  underinvestment  business  confidence  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  output  output  gap  technological  unemployment  skills  economy  skills  gap  skill  gap  industrial  policy  Manufacturing 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
U.K. Faces Short Recession as Brexit Hammers Spending, EY Says - Bloomberg
The U.K. will fall into a “short, shallow recession” around the turn of the year as Brexit hits house prices, jobs and spending [...] it’s slashing its 2017 growth estimate to 0.4% from 2.6% & predicting the BOE will cut interest rates to zero by the end of 2016. Tax reductions are also a possibility [...] as the government scales back austerity to aid an economy reeling from the shock vote to pull Britain out of the [EU]. “We would expect a permanent reduction in the level of U.K. output and productivity.” Business investment will drop 2% next year and the jobless rate will reach 7.1 percent by 2019
GBP  Brexit  British  Pound  recession  ZIRP  QE  austerity  Theresa  May  Philip  Hammond  productivity  productivity  gap  output  output  gap  GDP  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  unemployment  economic  forecast  economic  history  budget  deficit 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Behind the Bond-Stock Divide Is a Big and Risky Bet on Central Banks - WSJ
The idea is that if stocks are rising, bond yields should be climbing too. Here's how to reconcile it. The answer is central banks. If rates are going to stay lower for longer; if more rounds of quantitative easing are coming; if new ways of easing are coming -- the rates should be going down and stocks moving higher. [...] It's about dividends paying more than bonds. 90% of the bond market universe is near 2% or lower. //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-12/germany-about-sell-zero-coupon-10-year-bonds-first-time-ever //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-13/we-just-found-out-who-has-been-buying-all-these-record-low-yielding-bonds - When your nation's bonds are trading with a record low 28bps negative yield (10Y JGBs), everything else in the world (aside from Swiss 10Y) is a relative 'value'...
bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  central  banks  BIS  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  PBOC  secular  stagnation  wage  growth  output  gap  productivity  gap  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  inequality  Gini  coefficient  western  world  rising  middleclass  Asia  BRIC  income  distribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  crony  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  capitalism  neoliberal  neoliberalism  globalisation  global  economy  globalization  free  trade  dividends  underinvestment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  student  debt  consumer  debt  car  loan  property  bubble  speculative  bubble  speculative  bubbles  distortion  asset  allocation  austerity  AI  Robotics  automation  augmented  intelligence  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  skills  shortage  economic  history  Brexit  technological  history  underemployed  underemployment  part-time  deflation  deflationary  JGB 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
UK govt just sold £1.25bn of 10yr index linked bonds at an interest rate of -1.578% Yes, minus
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/753164809538039808
Brexit  secular  stagnation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  recession  global  economy  UK  stagflation  stagnation  austerity  economic  history  Germany  USA  Japan  western  world  underinvestment  productivity  gap  productivity  recovery  output  gap  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  wage  growth  Confidence  Fairy  bond  bubble  distortion 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Geographies of Austerity: Mark Blyth
EU bank bailout (incl Britain) = 40% of EU GDP (incl Britain) = 5 trillion Euros. AUSTERITY FOR WHOM?! // secular stagnation - ZIRP, NIRP, QE, austerity, liquidity trap, aggregate demand short-fall = creditors paradise. their debt will not be inflated away. deflation - deflationary environment. for the next 2-3 decades. = NO DRIVE TO INVEST IN PRODUCTIVE ASSETS! = productivity gap. [...] rentier paradise. [...] = interest formation (those who have, call the shots, status quo). [...] deflationary spiral (PIGS & Germany) exporting deflation ... getting more competitive [EU has 2015 a current account surplus, bought my USA] = Dr Wolfgang Schaeuble. [...] Fall of Centrists, rise of the SNP & UKIP (reactionary) ... Trump. [...] as investment rate (ie SME/SMB lending) stays same, does not grow = DEAD. Eurobonds/Investment Fund(UK, 5bn 5 years). [...] min 55 - deflationary politics (policy for 1-10-20% of society) is one way train. DEATH. especially w austerity and low wages/secular stagnation.
austerity  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  general  election  2010  general  election  2015  George  Osborne  Iain  Duncan  Smith  David  Cameron  Ed  Miliband  economic  history  Mark  Blyth  book  Richard  Koo  welfare  state  welfare  reform  bank  bailout  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  IMF  ChristineLagarde  Salami  Tactics  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  Confidence  Fairy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Tony  Blair  Gordon  Brown  European  Union  Euro  ECB  BOJ  PIGS  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  politician  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  banking  systemic  risk  OMT  LTRO  MarioDraghi  trichet  BOE  deflation  deflationary  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  rentier  rent-seeking  Mark  Carney  Donald  Trump  business  consumer  TLTRO  non-performing  loan  NPL  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
AUP Events: Mark Blyth Guest Speaker on The Future of The Eurozone - YouTube
bailing out banks is bailing out top 20% of society. to the cost of the 80% below. //
Mark  Blyth  Confidence  Fairy  austerity  GFC  economic  history  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  bank  bailout  bailout  PIGS  ECB  European  Union  fiscal  policy  book  TBTF  toobigtofail  trichet  MarioDraghi  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Wall  Street 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
UK current account deficit deepens Brexit fears | Business | The Guardian
ONS data reveal trading position with rest of world is worse than thought and confirm that economy slowed in the first quarter.
Brexit  UK  economy  global  economy  recovery  FDI  foreign  direct  investment  consumer  spending  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  uncertainty 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
Firms plan to quit UK as City braces for more post-Brexit losses | Business | The Guardian
The IoD said a quarter of the members polled in a survey were putting hiring plans on hold, while 5% said they were set to make workers redundant. Nearly two-thirds of those polled said the outcome of the referendum was negative for their business. One in five respondents, out of a poll of more than 1,000 business leaders, were considering moving some of their operations outside of the UK. //&! The chief executive of Deutsche Bank – which employs 11,000 in the City – has played down the long-term impact. John Cryan, who is British, told Handelsblatt: “The financial centre won’t die but it will get weaker.” - bit.ly/28WkoMZ
Brexit  recession  City  of  London  European  Union  FDI  foreign  direct  investment  GBP  current  account  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  BOE  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  British  Pound  uncertainty 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
UK GDP growth – beware the march of the spenders | Business | The Guardian
the breakdown was deeply troubling. What it showed was an economy unhealthily reliant on consumer spending. Real household spending was up 0.7% on the quarter and added 0.5 percentage points to the growth rate. In other words, the other components of growth – investment, trade and government spending – contributed -0.1 points to growth during the first three months of the year. [...] drop in business investment, which was down both over the quarter and over the year. //&! bit.ly/1RjxDnh - Making things matters. This is what Britain forgot. Ha-Joon Chang. The neglect of manufacturing and over-development of the financial sector is the cause of the economy’s decline, not fear of leaving the EU
UK  2016  recovery  Manufacturing  George  Osborne  industrial  policy  David  Cameron  austerity  Brexit  secular  stagnation  USA  world  economy  underinvestment  Smart  Grid  competitiveness  competitive  advantage  competitive  China  Steel  Crisis  Steel  Industry  BRIC  European  Union  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  short-termism  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Career  Politicians  general  election  2015  general  election  2020  Conservative  Party  neoliberalism  neoliberal  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Panama  Papers  HMRC  income  tax  receipts  employment  self-employment  Precariat  minimum  wage  wage  growth  productivity  output  gap  savings  rate  housing  bubble  property  bubble  business  confidence 
may 2016 by asterisk2a
Martin Wolf on Brexit fears | FT Comment
significant reduction in output, and unknowns and unknown unknowns time after vote, delayed investment into UK. Businesses like certainty! [...] We will be small off-shore island [...] UK relationship w USA was important to EU. [...] Weaker Europe, weaker UK. [...] //&! UK Treasury's analysis of Brexit - youtu.be/iT7Z4Kzb53I - Econ risk and immigration huge pillar of voting-decision especially for swing voters. [...] £4300 over next 14 years, the assumption/basis of this is lower economic growth (6%) ... attack is that this is not a fact. [...] Leave campaign argues the world will queue up to do quickly trade deals with you, which is not fact. [...] Stay campaign says this is not the case, and USA has hinted at that that you can't fall back on us to arrage quick trade deal negotiations with other countries, just because of our past relations.
Brexit  underinvestment  FDI  foreign  direct  investment  uncertainty  output  gap  productivity  productivity  gap  TTIP  unknown  unknown  unknowns  foreign  relations  business  confidence 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
IMF urges more spending to boost growth
Fund’s steering committee calls for more forceful stimulus and warns monetary policy alone is not enough //&! http://www.theguardian.com/business/imf //&! bit.ly/1V9pfhD - IMF chief: regulators long 'alarmed' over Panama's handling of taxation. Christine Lagarde responds to Panama Papers revelations, noting that authorities were concerned but did not take ‘expected’ action.
secular  stagnation  Panama  Papers  tax  evasion  tax  amnesty  tax  avoidance  corporate  tax  rate  labour  market  job  market  Service  Sector  Jobs  income  tax  receipts  budget2016  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  general  election  2015  general  election  2020  election  campaign  promises  Party  Funding  Richard  Koo  Confidence  Fairy  austerity  underinvestment  Generationengerechtigkeit  triple-lock  pension  fairness  Generation  Rent  Housing  Crisis  property  bubble  USA  UK  reflation  reflate  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  GFC  sovereign  debt  banking  bank  bailout  job  creation  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  IMF  OECD  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  recovery  Germany  economic  history  2016  Niall  Ferguson  budget  deficit  offshore  banking  investment  banking  TBTF  self-regulation  Greed  crony  capitalism  shareholder  capitalism  globalisation  globalization  global  economy  Oil  price  commodity  prices  ChristineLagarde  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  mobility  social  mobility  low  pay  low  income  tax  credit  child  poverty  food  poverty  health  care  cost  health  care  demand  western  world  European  Union  Brussels  Brexit  Grexit  sick  population  health  economic  Union  Union  investment  policy  fiscal  me 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
What Happens Next (In Europe)?
the odds of another crisis are higher than a rally to fresh records. [...]
“The 2009-2015 rally originated from two main drivers: a massive stimulus, and credit expansion in China,” said Goette, who’s a partner at his firm in Zug, Switzerland and helps oversee 1 billion Swiss francs ($1 billion).

“European earnings have not followed suit so far. Skepticism regarding central-bank operations has started to emerge.”
ECB  Brussels  recovery  reflate  reflation  China  credit  bubble  Germany  PIGS  zombie  banks  European  Bank  Supervision  European  Economic  Area  European  Election  2014  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  MarioDraghi  OMT  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  Brexit  Grexit  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  history  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  Yanis  Varoufakis  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  youth  unemployment  demographic  bubble  OAP  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  liberal  reform  Precariat  precarious  employment  low  pay  low  income  Minijob  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  1  Euro  Job  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  union  union  Rechtsruck  Bundesbank  fault  lines  shareholder  capitalism  bailout  GFC  2016  PBOC  Exportweltmeister  zombie  Financial  Stability  Board  crony  capitalism  Deutsche  Bank  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  Beton  Gold  Betongold  asset  allocation  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  democracy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Russia  Crimea  Ukraine  U 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Is Stephen Crabb the man to tackle this age of extreme inequality?
The Panama Papers will lead to the dynamiting of Tory credibility, but new work and pensions secretary, Stephen Crabb, is unlikely to prove the saviour of his party’s reputation. [...] Last autumn’s U-turn over cuts to working tax credits was a smoke screen. The axe will fall, only not everywhere, not just yet. From this week, existing universal credit claimants will lose up to £220 a month as the work allowance is pared back faster than the national living wage increases to replace it. [...] Short of taking a vow of poverty and retreating like Charles V to a monastery, there is nothing he can say now that will change the perception that he is at the head of a party that has a fundamental personal interest in preserving the advantages of the 1%.
Stephen  Crabb  nasty  party  tax  credit  Universal  Iain  Duncan  Smith  welfare  reform  welfare  state  poverty  trap  poverty  child  poverty  social  safety  net  sanctions  JSA  ESA  PIP  Disabled  vulnerable  mental  health  austerity  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Tories  Conservative  Positioning  PR  spin  doctor  manufactured  consent  snap  judgement  prejudice  triple-lock  pension  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  aggregate  demand  Budget2016  budget2015  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  Funding  constituency  Super  Rich  oligarchy  plutocracy  Confidence  Fairy  1%  democracy  food  poverty  fuel  poverty  tax  evasion  tax  amnesty  tax  avoidance  Panama  Papers  offshore  banking  tax  loopoles  lobby  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  deprivation  crony  capitalism  shareholder  capitalism  corporate  welfare  HMRC  revolving  door  corporate  tax  rate  capital  gains  tax  DLA  Independent  Living  Fund  Holyrood 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Cis-female plastic surgery part vanity and insecurity?
A meta-analysis of all these studies found that women who have had breast enlargements are two to three times more likely to kill themselves than women who haven’t. // via http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/apr/10/sara-pascoe-boob-jobs-self-harm-animal-cosmetic-surgery //&! http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/09/self-conscious-t-shirts-men-on-cosmetic-surgery
Vanity  insecurity  beauty  industry  beauty  sickness  Myth  beauty  image  beauty  standard  Fashion  Tabloid  gossip  well  being  mental  health  confidence 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016: Four key numbers - BBC Newsnight
weaker outlook for income tax receipts & economy/global economy >> OBR has done 'no projections' on impact of Brexit: Robert Chote - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/A0jvIUKTU1U //&! Budget 2016: Evan Davis grills Sajid Javid on the numbers - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/L0TBTbfNgCw - "WE HAD THE BIGGEST BANK BAILOUT" //&! NICKY MORGAN ON TORY WELFARE ROW - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/IC_Yhggk62o
Budget2016  OBR  secular  stagnation  income  tax  receipts  productivity  gap  recovery  economic  history  Richard  Koo  Brexit  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  general  election  2020  austerity  underinvestment  business  confidence  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  working  poor  tax  credit  Zero  Hour  Contract  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  self-employment  part-time  Contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  recovery  economic  history  UK  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  pension  obligation  triple-lock  pension  bank  bailout  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  Richard  Koo  Privatisation  free  market  demographic  bubble  poverty  child  poverty  food  poverty  ESA  Disabled  vulnerable  DLA  PIP  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  sanctions  JSA  social  housing  affordable  housing  Crisis  property  bubble  welfare  state  welfare  reform  Universal  housing  benefit  social  safety  net 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
George Osborne: A profile of the man behind the Budget - BBC Newsnight
// 70% of UK economy growth (GDP), 2015, was consumption. // and trade deficit/current account deficit for 2015, biggest ever on record ---- The UK's current account deficit widened to a record high in the final quarter of last year.
The deficit in the three months to December was £32.7bn, the equivalent of 7% of GDP, said the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
For all of 2015, it came to £96.2bn or 5.2% of GDP. Both figures were the highest since records began in 1948.
A current account deficit means the value of imports of goods, services and investment income exceeds exports.[...] "An obvious potential trigger for the markets losing confidence in the UK economy could be a vote to leave the EU in the 23 June referendum." [ harder to finance w weak Sterling and higher interest rates, rating agencies hinted at the case of a downgrade of UK's credit worthieness ] - bbc.in/1ZMEvAg
Budget2016  George  Osborne  Career  Politicians  austerity  economic  history  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  David  Cameron  Brexit  HS2  minimum  wage  living  wage  budget  deficit  trade  deficit  secular  stagnation  recovery  Toff  No  Representation  Privileged  Establishment  demographic  bubble  bank  bailout  Positioning  dogma  ideology  neoliberal  neoliberalism  spin  doctor  PR  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  Student  Loan  Generation  Rent  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  Japan  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  growth  of  income  shareholder  capitalism  crony  capitalism  current  account  deficit  GBP  Sterling  business  confidence  global  economy  fault  lines  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  Mark  Carney 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of England blames falling pound on Brexit fears
The BoE said disappointing business investment and the weaker outlook for global trade would offset the impact of a cheaper pound and keep inflation in check in the short term before a rise to its 2% target within the next two years.

The Bank’s nine-strong monetary policy committee (MPC) also unanimously voted to keep its quantitative easing asset purchase scheme on hold at £375bn in response to a mixed bag of indicators that it said would keep GDP growth on an upward, though subdued path. [...] [ BREXIT EFFECT, sterling down] It may also delay some spending decisions and depress growth in aggregate demand in the near term. Overall, however, the committee judges that the outlook for domestic activity to be little changed from the time of the February inflation report,” the MPC said. [...] [ CARNEY ALSO SUPPORTS FISCAL STIMULUS! ]
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  Mark  Carney  budget2016  UK  wage  growth  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  George  Osborne  recovery  secular  stagnation  underinvestment  business  confidence  business  cycle  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  Brexit  aggregate  demand  economic  history  fiscal  stimulus  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Made in Chelsea's Spencer Matthews took steroids 'to look good in the shower' - BBC Newsbeat
And admits he took them because he "wanted to look as good as possible". He says it was because he wanted to be bigger and stronger while training for the match. Newsbeat recently revealed one in 10 men training in UK gyms struggle with a body anxiety known as "bigorexia", or muscle dysmorphia. It's been compared to anorexia in reverse - where men become obsessed with putting on muscle. Depression, steroid abuse and even suicide are effects of bigorexia.
bigorexia  Doping  Steroid  Selbstdarstellung  superficial  Selfie  beauty  sickness  self-respect  confidence  Self-esteem  self-medication  coping  mechanism  well  being  mental  health  Social  Media  gossip  culture  gossip  Tabloid  Glossy  Magazine  Reality  TV  Hollywood  Television  Music  Industry 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Central bankers on the defensive as weird policy becomes even weirder | Business | The Guardian
Growth is tepid, productivity is poor, and inflation is too low: all is not going according to policymakers’ masterplans [...] As far as the OECD is concerned, monetary policy is being forced to take too much of the strain. Its chief economist Catherine Mann made the point that lasting recovery required three things: stimulative monetary policy; activist fiscal policy; and structural reform. The OECD wants the second of these ingredients to be added to the recipe in the form of increased spending on public infrastructure, something it says would more than pay for itself at a time when governments can borrow so cheaply.
monetary  policy  G20  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  UK  western  world  USA  Japan  Abenomics  George  Osborne  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  productivity  underinvestment  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  Taper  deflationary  deflation  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  zombie  banks  MervynKing  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  discretionary  spending  distortion  property  bubble  disposable  income  productive  investment  austerity  business  confidence  foreign  direct  investment  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  policy  folly  policy  error  short-termism  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  self-regulation  City  of  London  investment  banking  retail  banking  OECD  IMF  KennethRogoff  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  trust 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Economic myths and tall tales - the confidence fairy and bond vigilante | Business | The Guardian
Confidence  Fairy 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
George Osborne warns of further spending cuts in Budget - BBC News
[ LOL! ] But recent figures showing the UK economy was smaller than expected meant savings must be found in his Budget statement on 17 March, he said. [...] Mr Osborne said he would rather look for extra cuts now than risk breaking his own manifesto commitment to achieve a surplus in the budget by the end of this Parliament. The chancellor did not completely rule out raising taxes in the event of a further slowdown in growth, but said that now was not the time for "significant" tax hikes. [...] I'm absolutely clear we've got to root our country in the principle that we live within our means and that we have economic security." [...] "whole purpose of our economic plan was to have a budget surplus. [...] we got big challenges at home to make the economy more productive even as more people get work. [ because having part of your budget in the property bubble is so productive ] [...] I will do what is required to keep our country safe and secure." [ NOT CHANGING PLANS ie U-TURN ]
UK  secular  stagnation  austerity  Richard  Koo  Japan  economic  history  dogma  ideology  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  economists  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Robert  Reich  David  Cameron  Tories  nasty  party  recovery  aggregate  demand  Conservative  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  BOE  City  of  London  HMRC  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  self-employment  corporate  tax  rate  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  multiplier  precarious  work  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  tax  credit  housing  benefit  income-based  JSA  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  wage  stagnation  stagnation  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  skills  gap  STEM  productivity  output  gap  Manufacturing  industrial  policy  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  Chicago  School  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  property  bubble  apprenticeships  value  creation  added  value  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  marginal  cost  energy  price  energy  policy  Hinkley  Point  C  nuclear  power  nuclear  waste  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  welfare  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbyin 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Tech IPO freeze is sign of investor reality check
business  confidence  2016 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Money talks: Clutching at straws by The Economist
talking up the market. no big bang possible. // working against fiscal pact and schuldenbremse and wolfgang schaeuble schwarze null politik.
MarioDraghi  centralbanks  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  deflationary  deflation  consumer  confidence  Bundesbank  European  Union  zombie  banks  Germany  recovery  refugee  crisis  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  Schuldenbremse  Pact  fiscal  stimulus  OECD  IMF  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  distortion  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Career  Politicians  short-termism  BIS  economic  history  velocity  of  money  money  supply  moneysupply  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  deleveraging  risk  aversion  secular  stagnation  babyboomers  ageing  population  demographic  bubble  France  Niall  Ferguson  youth  unemployment  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  underinvestment  productive  investment  output  gap  productivity  Gini  coefficient  inequality  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Interview With Mohamed El-Erian: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View
7:50 New Normal is secular stagnation and decades-long NIRP, ZIRP, QE distortion. structural, secular. no cyclical recovery. but long secular challenges; prolonged period of low growth. // also inequality! // currently policy makers subsidise debtors, subsidise creditors - financial repression. promote risk taking. // richard koo would not agree with el-erian's notion that gov balance sheets are same as household balance sheets. // 12:10 demographic issue! political. and economic elements in it of secular stagnation. [...] borrowing growth // rise of far-right! // corps sitting on cash // inequality! // bc of lived in artificial world of borrowed growth, created massive divergence. // min 15:30 richard koo would not agree that central banks are the only game in town. central banks have complained abt austerity gov. // min 20 - Feds intellectually inflexible. comfort zone. self-regulation & great moderation. // reflation didnt work bc no fixed fundamentals // perfect storm! lost trust.
New  Normal  financial  repression  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  secular  stagnation  GFC  credit  bubble  book  western  world  emerging  middle  class  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Paul  Krugman  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Joseph  Stiglitz  distortion  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  system  retirement  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  far-right  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Pact  Schuldenbremse  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  reflate  reflation  trust  trustagent  distrust  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  public  sentiment  public  perception  bank  bailout  Japan  Abenomics  AIIB  IMF  China  BRIC  self-regulation  Great  Moderation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What's holding back the world economy? | Business | The Guardian
[ continued financialisation of economy / faustian pact ] QE and low interest rates have disproportionately created wealth in the financial sector and inflated asset bubbles. It has done little for the real economy. The rules of the market need to be rewritten [...] dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse. In the US, quantitative easing did not boost consumption and investment partly because most of the additional liquidity returned to central banks’ coffers in the form of excess reserves. [...] private investment did not grow [...] [ QE supported only financial sector and zombie banks and corporations, little to nothing went into the real economy for investment in western world ] [ which leads us to say we are still in a banking crisis per se ]
Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  austerity  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  Student  Bubble  loan  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  wage  stagnation  income  growth  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  mortgage  market  NPL  debt  servitude  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  inequality  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  asset  equity  VIX  volatility  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  aggregate  demand  income  redistribution  repo  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  financial  market  GFC  banking  crisis  retail  banking  investment  banking  hot-money  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  BRIC  rent-seeking  rentier  carbon  tax  economic  damage 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
SPERI Annual Lecture 2015: 'The Failure of Austerity' by Lord Robert Skidelsky - YouTube
economic history - "state spending inherently unproductive." // borrowing is deferred taxation - David Richardo - Rational expectations. Market economy always tended full employment. // Theory and Facts did not align. Keynes realised it post-war. Private investment is inherently volatile, ie slump conditions. state to offset underinvestment of private sector and match their retreat. getting rid of abnormal unemployment. done through monetary expansion (QE) and put onto state balance sheet available to spend. // Where 2009 forward QE got to banks ... // Paul Krugman - Confidence Fairy. // "Look after employment, and the budget will look after itself." but today it's the bond holders confidence who shapes budgets. // Keynes 'it is the long-term confidence of businesses that shape investment, confidence in state to no let a slump happen again.' but austerity, out of ammo talk, political-, social environment/sentiment & Osborne's '2016 will be tough year' speech were counter-productive.
austerity  economic  history  Robert  Skidelsky  Richard  Koo  David  Ricardo  sovereign  debt  crisis  underinvestment  productive  investment  competitiveness  competitive  public  utility  public  investment  education  policy  public  transportation  Good  infrastructure  investment  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  George  Osborne  trickle-down  economics  tax  code  progressive  taxation  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Chicago  School  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Pact  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Schuldenbremse  western  world  Paul  Krugman  political  folly  political  theory  political  economy  political  error  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  financial  cycle  Greed  economic  cycle  inflation  expectation  expectations  Super  debt  servitude  GFC  recovery  Conservative  Party  fearmongering  Fear  Career  Politicians  nasty  David  Cameron  PR  spin  doctor 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  deposit  levy  MarioDraghi  Abenomics  economic  history  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  recovery  Yen  Euro  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  distortion  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  debt  bubble  New  Normal  financial  repression  faultlines  global  economy  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Japan  UK  secular  stagnation  western  world  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflation  Sweden  Switzerland  China  Yuan  JGB  2016  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Super  Cycle  recession  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Meet the Renegades Steve Keen - YouTube
[ chicago school of economics ] 17:25 - private debt // demand will never be again so starong as before GFC. growth of debt/credit is normal. but without growth and high debt is cancer. + current account deficit/trade deficit = means things for UK can not go in indefinitely. austerity will run its course, will not make things better. next is property bubble! and NPL as normalisation to 2% nears // China margin trading & leverage via credit bubble. property bubble. // 24:20 - there is still room to grow household/private debt. Tories treat gov budget like a household rather than a bank! UK will stumble along at lower rate than America. Will not get better! Just rearranging deck chairs of a painfully slowly sinking ship.
secular  stagnation  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  UK  USA  Japan  economic  history  car  loan  GFC  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  consumer  confidence  junk  bond  NPL  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  student  debt  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  mortgage  market  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  austerity  dogma  neoclassical  economics  book  ideology  margin  trading  leverage  western  world  Hegemony  China  Super  Cycle 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Committee warns of decline in Scottish employment standards - BBC News
[ always announcing new jobs created #, but not the wage ] Members said there had been a "decline in job quality" in recent years, with an increase in low-paid zero-hours contract jobs since the 2008 recession. Their report said public money could be better used to support workers. The committee heard evidence from scores of organisations and took submissions from more than 600 people. Convener Murdo Fraser said the evidence from firms and workers suggested there had been a decline in job quality and an increase in low-paid jobs on "exploitative" zero-hours contracts in recent years. He said: "Whilst employment statistics point to an increase to those in work, if we look beyond the figures, we have uncovered a worrying trend in poor quality employment. [...] "We heard during our inquiry that poor quality work has a significant impact on people's health and wellbeing.
job  creation  Zero  Hour  Contract  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  precarious  work  Precariat  low  income  minimum  wage  working  poor  tax  credit  squeezed  middle  class  UK  USA  part-time  poverty  trap  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  child  poverty  working  tax  credit  child  tax  credit  education  policy  skills  gap  job  market  job  security  output  gap  productivity  living  wage  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  Positioning  PR  spin  doctor  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  growth  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  credit  card  car  loan  austerity  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  welfare  well  being  happiness  happiness  index  mental  health  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomic  policy  corporate  tax  rate  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  neoliberalism  neoliberal  dogma  ideology  corporate  scandal  CSR  corporate  social  responsibility  philanthropy  underinvestment  STEM  public  investment  business  investment  Foreign  Direct  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  fiscal  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Megan McArdle on Better Policy Can’t Save Japan (Audio) by Bloomberg View
Abenomics  Japan  demographic  bubble  trade  deficit  fiscal  policy  economic  history  monetary  policy  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  immigration  China  Germany 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Pando: Unicorns on fire: Funding falls dramatically in the fourth quarter, along with exits of all kinds
I predicted the second quarter of 2015 had to be peak mega round. Turns out, I was three months off. But now it’s official: The shit is hitting the fan. [...] In the third quarter, venture funding hit dot com funding levels with 2008 deals and $38.7 billion raised. In the fourth quarter, we saw the lowest deal tally since 2013, with just 1743 deals raising some $27.3 billion.
IPO  Unicorn  growth  round  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Private  Market  Wall  Street  Fed  monetary  policy  USA  China  business  confidence  Silicon  Valley  Hype  Cycle  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  Private  Equity  Mutual  Fund  SPV  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Oil  price  QT 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
From social media to the catwalk, is fantasy beauty failing young women? | Life and style | The Guardian
The world of vloggers and YouTubers has created a perverse, homogenised “beauty” with no diversity or reality. Jane Cunningham, journalist [...] The concept of appearance as a commodity to be valued has filtered from Hollywood to family homes across the UK. A 2013 attitudes survey by the Guide Association finding that 87% of girls aged 11-21 believe women are judged more on their appearance than their ability. The dissatisfaction resulting from the oft-perpetuated narrow vision of a beauty ideal can lead to low self-esteem – and worse. Jane Cunningham, the journalist behind Britishbeautyblogger.com, says young girls come to her in tears, feeling hopeless and helpless, unable to reconcile their own appearance with what they believe to be beautiful.
beauty  sickness  body  image  Social  Media  Celebrity  of  You  fat  shaming  fat  acceptance  eating  disorder  mental  health  Fashion  Industry  Instagram  Newsfeed  Depression  public  health  health  crisis  sick  population  culture  gossip  culture  Tabloid  Glossy  Magazine  beauty  standard  beauty  beauty  Self-esteem  self-respect  confidence  Sexual  objectification  objectification  childhood  development  parenthood 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Selfie: The high cost of low confidence - YouTube
A conversation about the impact body confidence has on individuals and society as a whole. Highlighting how social media magnifies the desire to look "perfect" and the lengths to which girls will go to become their best “digital selves.” // Display yourself vs Contribute to society.
Selbstdarstellung  Selbstfürsorge  Selfie  Social  Media  psychology  sociology  celebrity  culture  beauty  standard  beauty  industry  beauty  sickness  of  You  gossip  culture  Tabloid  Glossy  Magazine  gossip  Depression  Newsfeed  Facebook  Instagram  childhood  development  Wertegesellschaft  Self-esteem  confidence  society  Gesellschaft  Wegwerfgesellschaft  status  symbol  status  anxiety  socioeconomic  status  materialism  zombie  consumer  public  health  mental  health  Zivilgesellschaft  fat  shaming  fat  acceptance  dieting  Fashion  Fast  Fashion  capitalism  consumerist  consumerism  individualism  individuality 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
In the loop October 2: Flemish separatism, F1 and the Juncker plan by POLITICO Europe
min 17 - behind-the-scenes fight in the European Parliament over the appointment of top managers for the so-called Juncker Plan: a €315 billion EU investment plan. // threat of White Elephants, roads and bridges to nowhere ... only politicians can put themselves in front of photojournalists for photo op. no productive investments into the future. renewable, smart grid, private public paternerships, carbon emission reduction projects ie urbanisation planning projects to half city traffic and put cycling network in place, and zero emission public transportation, ... --- no accountability, no oversight no transparency. risk of corruption, bribery, dirty handshakes, ...
European  Union  technocrat  bureaucrat  Jean-Claude  Juncker  infrastructure  investment  STEM  Research  R&D  underinvestment  fiscal  policy  Pact  fiscal  stimulus  public  investment  business  investment  Schuldenbremse  Politics  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Brussels  European  Parliament  European  Election  2014  European  Commission  Eurobond  PIGS  PIIGSFB  Richard  Koo  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  Germany  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Eurogroup  austerity  Grexit  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  excess  reserves  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ECB  QE  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  corruption  ideology  dogma  campaign  promises  White  Elephant  productive  investment  productivity  Makers  policy  folly  social  contract  political  theory  accountability  transparency  oversight  2015 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
VW could face long legal nightmare - BBC News
One German newspaper has described Volkswagen's rigging of emission tests as the "most expensive act of stupidity in the history of the car industry". [ irrational exuberance, feeling untouchable. Tesla is a symptom, that a somebody has to be crazy and always walk on a knifes edge, to compete against a handful of conglomerates and innovate from first principle: redefining the category/vertical ]
Volkswagen  VW  automotive  conglomerate  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  ethical  machine  corruption  bribery  Career  Politicians  Consumer  Protection  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  irrational  exuberance  banking  crisis  GFC  bank  crisis  Tesla  Motors  Elon  Musk  first  principle  FinTech  trust  antitrust  distrust  confidence  exploitation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Fat People Are Unhealthy - YouTube
"obesity is a disease!" //&! Why I'm Against "Fat Acceptance" - youtu.be/I0Mq4Kz3vng ... "Who do I want to be? [...] Since I've been this since childhood, I have not known & do not know any different. [...] shame does not help anybody." //&! Fooled [Mark Twain quote]. Hoodwinked. Exploited. PPL who are not aware of the SYSTEM WHICH IS RIGGED AGAINST THEM, are rightfully angry (anger directed partly towards themselves, blindly, and the status quo ... 'dare you to shame me, look around you ... I am not the only one!') for being fat shamed, to a certain extent. U can put the material in front of them, but they dont change if they dont snap 180 degrees intellectually: Enlightenment. Curtains revealed & they grasp the extent of the RIGGED SYSTEM. Thus able 2change small step by step. Process. Individual journey. Fuelled by intrinsic motivation (ie not boogie's case). //&! Political Correctness, Offensive (hate speech), free speech - youtu.be/A2QB00ZXbpA disclosure: guy is from infowars
fat  shaming  bias  prejudice  snap  judgement  pattern  matching  pattern  recognition  public  perception  public  opinion  public  image  eating  disorder  binge  eating  addiction  substance  abuse  public  debate  public  discourse  health  care  budget  public  health  policy  health  policy  health  care  spending  public  health  mental  health  health  crisis  health  science  metabolic  syndrome  diabetes  chronic  low-grade  inflammation  inflammation  sociology  psychology  society  Western  pattern  diet  Standard  American  diet  diet  dieting  fad  diet  child  abuse  childhood  childhood  development  parenting  parenthood  epigenetics  sedentary  lifestyle  lifestyle  lifestyle  lifestyle  medicine  active  lifestyle  world  society  food  industry  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  medical  profession  FDA  USDA  pharmaceutical  industry  pharma  big  pharma  intrinsic  motivation  social  change  public  awareness  Egg  Dairy  Fish  Meat  Milk  Enlightenment  self-actualization  self-belief  apathy  Perspective  self-respect  self-awareness  Self-esteem  self-regulation  self-improvement  education  policy  Perspektivlosigkeit  confidence  exploitation  deception  PR  spin  doctor  reframing  framing  Political  Correctness  Denialist  tobacco 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Britain's fading greenery - BBC News
[ after the collaps of energy prices, commoditiy prices and freed up labour from oil and gas industry ... instead of tripling investment in renewable energy, they cut it. increasing long-term competitiveness with domestic cheaper energy prices. stupid. instead they cut corporate tax rate, as if tax evasion and avoidance wasn't helping them already ... no further development of 6 killer apps. policy for vested interest. subsidies for oil. tax breaks. etc etc. ] The energy team at business consultancy EY can't expect to get many contracts out of Whitehall - not after a thorough trashing of UK policy. //&! Al Gore chimes in - bit.ly/1V88zmb //&! bbc.in/1NIzAMl //&! bv.ms/1Vgb4Iy - Stop Propping Up Fossil Fuels. Subsidies, as a rule, distort financial incentives and leave the economy less efficient. Subsidies on fossil fuels are doubly foolish: They also divert investment and consumption away from cleaner energy, and cost taxpayers a bundle.
UK  industrial  policy  renewable  energy  Principle  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  budget2015  austerity  underinvestment  business  confidence  corporate  tax  rate  Makers  constituency  commodity  prices  Oil  price  2015  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  policy  error  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  globalisation  globalization  Niall  Ferguson  climate  change  global  warming  energy  price  energy  security  energy  policy  Smart  Grid  babyboomers  Millennials  secular  stagnation  western  world  competitive  competitiveness  differentiate  differentiation  subsidies  subsidizing  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  OECD  IMF  STEM  Manufacturing  R&D  Research  education  policy  vocational  education  professional  education 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
UK productivity lags behind rest of G7 - BBC News
"Since the economic downturn, productivity growth has slowed in most developed economies, but by more in the UK than the average." The Chancellor, George Osborne, pledged in July to take steps to encourage more long-term investment in infrastructure and by businesses to boost productivity. Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said British productivity had been held back since the financial crisis by the creation of lots of low-skilled, low-paid jobs where productivity is limited. However, Institute of Directors chief economist James Sproule said that UK firms should focus on "agility" rather than productivity. "The economy of the future looks set to be dominated not by big companies, but by fast, agile, quick-moving and reactive ones," he said. "The firms that can respond to consumer demands most effectively and bring new products and services to market will reap the rewards."
UK  productivity  recovery  output  gap  western  world  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  Niall  Ferguson  competitive  competitiveness  BRIC  education  policy  job  market  job  creation  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  Gini  coefficient  income  mobility  social  mobility  inequality  poverty  trap  austerity  business  confidence  business  investment  budget2015  differentiate  differentiation  vocational  education  professional  education  Future  of  Software  Is  Eating  The  marginal  cost  marginal  propensity  to  consume  trickle-down  economics  economics  of  abundance  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  STEM  Research  R&D  labour  market  manual  labour  Tories  Conservative  Party  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England may cut rates, says chief economist - BBC News
Softening employment figures and weakening surveys on manufacturing and construction output suggested growth in the UK could slow in the second half of the year and inflation might not pick up as expected. Furthermore, problems in emerging markets could be a drag on UK growth and the headwinds from those economies were unlikely to abate any time soon, Mr Haldane added. //&! In a wide-ranging speech that called on central bankers to think more radically to fend off the next downturn – including the notion of abolishing cash – Haldane warned the UK was not ready for higher borrowing costs. He described recent events in Greece and China as "the latest leg of what might be called a three-part crisis trilogy."
China  sovereign  debt  crisis  European  Union  BRIC  credit  bubble  2015  headwinds  Fed  mandate  BOE  bond  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  QT  British  Pound  Sterling  Dollar  petrodollar  FX  reserves  excess  reserves  liquidity  trap  GFC  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  Pact  Schuldenbremse  George  Osborne  budget2015  David  Cameron  industrial  policy  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Research  competitiveness  competitive  differentiate  differentiation  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  business  confidence  business  investment  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  Niall  Ferguson  secular  stagnation  western  world  deflationary  deflation  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  education  policy  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  tax  code  corporate  tax  rate  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  monetary  monetary  debt  unconve 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
RICHARD KOO: 'Struggle between markets and central banks has only just begun' - Business Insider
… much of the rise in share prices and fall in currency values under QE were nothing more than liquidity-driven phenomena divorced from real economy fundamentals. Now that an end to QE is in sight, it is time for a correction. Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks several months ago about elevated stock market valuations were most likely a reference to this bubble. A correction of some kind was inevitable as the Fed moved to normalize monetary policy. However, it still needed a trigger, and that was provided by China. [...] “The market gyrations of the last two months represent just the beginning of the QE trap”, says Koo.
Richard  Koo  Taper  2015  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Janet  Yellen  Fed  mandate  China  BRIC  global  economy  global  trade  western  world  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  property  bubble  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  distortion  correction  Student  Loan  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BIS  centralbanks  BOE  Abenomics  BOJ  ECB  Fed  unconventional  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  excess  reserves  retail  banking  consumer  debt  household  debt  deleveraging  wage  growth  income  growth  low  income  marginal  propensity  to  consume  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  Niall  Ferguson  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  recovery  GFC  austerity  Schuldenbremse  Pact  European  Union  UK  USA  Career  Politicians  crony  capitalism  No  Representation  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  sovereign  debt  crisis  PR  spin  doctor  reframing  framing  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  investment  banking  business  investment  business  confidence  Blue  Ocean  PBOC  New  Normal  economic  growth  monetary  stimulus 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Is Global Economic Doubt Behind the Unchanged Rate? - YouTube
youtu.be/f5_AGIMe32k // much higher $ already put ~25bps on US domestic market. // Fed is a risk manager now // labour market got a check mark, but not inflation bc of tech, stronger$ (taper anticipation), commodities lower, further deflationary pressures (retail price fighting 4 increase like4like sales), globalisation (competition), secular stagnation (continued low growth in western world, lower aggregate demand overall, lower baseline), consumer unable 2pickup where it threw in hat (deleveraging, no savings, debt overhang household, consumer). A new normal of growth of ~3% (give/take) globally aggregate & western wrld (2-2.5%, EU aggregate even lower). In this world, THERE WILL BE NO INFLATION PRESSURE (2% or higher, &3bn ppl free labour wrldwide) IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS THE REAL ECONOMY 4 EVERY DAY FOLK DOESNT REFLECT REFLATED ASSET PRICES via QE, ZIRP, credit bubbles arnd world enabled by central banks. &! youtu.be/NVa5fkz8X0o &! youtu.be/Ny3bbonX3d0 &! 1.usa.gov/1JdKZxp
Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  2015  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Janet  Yellen  participation  rate  employment  underemployed  full  employment  unemployment  structural  unemployment  USA  China  BRIC  credit  bubble  complexity  global  economy  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  property  bubble  BIS  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  secular  stagnation  western  world  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Super  Rich  1%  faultlines  savings  glut  Impediments  structural  imbalance  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  disposable  income  income  inequality  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  UK  BOE  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  security  labour  market  recovery  policy  response  fiscal  policy  austerity  Schuldenbremse  Pact  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Jim Grant: The Fed Turned the Stock Market Into a 'Hall of Mirrors' - YouTube
- bull market in equities not reflective of real fundamentals on the side of the consumer (aggregate demand, marginal propensity to consume). can not pick up the tab. inequality also does not help.
equity  bubble  frothy  distortion  USA  Fed  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  BRIC  BOE  ECB  excess  reserves  correction  2015  BOJ  reflate  reflation  Abenomics  hunt  for  yield  recovery  GFC  Taper  FOMO  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  fiscal  policy  austerity  western  world  developed  world  secular  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  income  gap  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  hot-money  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  property  bubble  Richard  Koo  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  fiat  currency  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Europe  UK  Japan  Germany  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  job  creation  job  security  working  poor  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Sozialer  Abstieg  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  inequality  income  mobility  Super  Rich  1%  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  Polarisation  Career  Politicians  dogma  ideology  crony  capitalism 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Brazil's downgrade | Authers' Note - YouTube
- 6 killer apps not yet properly installed. - // and still dependent on western world demand! aggregate demand via western consumer. // credit bubble and ZIRP/NIRP/QE has run its way largely // private sector could not pick up recovery. no appetite. same for SME SMB mittelstand. excess reserves not lend out because the horse has to drink by itself, can't make the drink. // especially when it has no means to served future credit interest payment coupons and principal repayment with no income growth! for decades. // inequality huts, middle class destoryed. - Career Politicans, Fear, polarisation, inequality, gini coefficient, zeit arbeit, leiharbeit, self-employment, working conditions, ...sozialer abstieg, squeezed middle class, ... insecurity, cloudy future, richard koo: austerity isn't helping!
Brazil  BRIC  Developing  World  China  credit  bubble  Latin  America  India  Russia  South  Africa  2015  Niall  Ferguson  NiallFerguson  recovery  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  emerging  middle  class  western  aggregate  demand  Supply  and  and  Supply  economic  history  Richard  Koo  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  globalization  globalisation  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  correction  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  PBOC  banking  crisis  bank  bailout  austerity  UK  USA  Europe  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  policy  consolidation  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  low  income  job  creation  labour  market  wage  growth  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  Super  Rich  1%  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  business  investment  business  confidence  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  underemployed  participation  rate  productivity  output  gap  macroeconomic  policy  policy  job  microeconomi 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &! youtu.be/SZe3issLIb8
Raghuram  Rajan  BIS  centralbanks  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  excess  reserves  speculative  bubbles  reflate  reflation  economic  history  faultlines  credit  bubble  BRIC  2015  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  secular  stagnation  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  globalization  globalisation  financial  market  zombie  banks  savings  glut  business  confidence  business  investment  USA  UK  Europe  China  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  speculative  speculation  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  ECB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  deflationary  deflation  fiscal  policy  irrational  exuberance  panic  hubris  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Taper  book  structural  imbalance  Impediments  reserve  currency  fiat  currency  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  fiscal  deficit  fiscal  stimulus  Germany  austerity  dogma  ideology  credibility  Career  Politicians  Pact  Schuldenbremse  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  complexity  incomplete  information  shadow  banking  uncertainty  volatility  distortion  financial  repression  governance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Uber Would Like to Buy Your Robotics Department | Hacker News
Uber  self-driving  cars  autonomous  car  business  investment  business  confidence  Blue  Ocean  business  strategy 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Public Lecture by Professor Niall Ferguson 2013-04-09 - YouTube
[6 Killer Apps - youtu.be/xpnFeyMGUs8 ] Degeneration and Regeneration after the GFC // interlude: Margaret Thatcher, the power of ideas in public office, in politics: Nature of freedom, economic freedom & other freedoms. Hayek & Adam Smith // The Great Degeneration (new Book 2013). Theme: The role of institutions in the creation and preservation of freedom. // GFC = "The slight depression." Avoided Great Depression like scenario by policy response (reflation) different to previous history. Talks abt equity market levels back 2 pre-2007 levels. EQUITY/(financial) ASSET PRICES. Bank Bailout! But NOT reached (real economy) escape velocity! Proper recovery! Under Keynes it should be an admission of defeat (bc lack of fiscal stimulus)! Is a sub-plot in the story of western decline! Great reconvergence of west & the rest of the world. // &! youtu.be/VVsP2X4kuA8 &! importance of civil institutions - youtu.be/8RB7Ah95RM4 bit.ly/1NqF7am &! youtu.be/kXTjj9NQKYo &! youtu.be/tyYTChxYAQ4
NiallFerguson  Niall  Ferguson  Margaret  Thatcher  economic  history  political  economy  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  book  Adam  Smith  adamsmith  austerity  ideology  dogma  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  USA  UK  China  history  social  contract  social  cohesion  social  tension  socialism  capitalism  crony  capitalism  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  hayek  reflate  reflation  Fed  ECB  BOJ  BOE  Makers  BIS  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  bank  bailout  sovereign  debt  crisis  banking  crisis  zombie  banks  excess  reserves  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  business  confidence  Taper  2015  secular  stagnation  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  economic  growth  global  trade  global  economy  globalization  global  imbalances  globalisation  flat  world  borderless  liquidity  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  fiscal  stimulus  aggregate  demand  marginal  propensity  to  consume  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt  Richard  Koo  private  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  developed  world  western  world  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  BRIC  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Developing  Frontier  Markets  inflation  inflation  business  targetin 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Labour leadership races can change fast; interest rates, not so much | Business | The Guardian
The fact of the matter is that, while George Osborne is obsessed with shrinking the size of the public sector and causing hardship and misery, the real crisis in this country concerns not the size of the budget deficit, but the record peacetime balance-of-payments deficit of a whopping 6% of GDP. With this in mind, John Llewellyn and Russell Jones of Llewellyn Consulting have been urging the Bank to encourage the overvalued pound to fall towards more realistic levels, to avoid an almighty sterling crisis when the markets finally wake up to the real crisis in the British economy.
balance  of  payments  2015  budget2015  austerity  output  gap  productivity  household  debt  public  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  UK  George  Osborne  short-term  Mark  Carney  BOE  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  bond  bubble  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  industrial  policy  STEM  Research  Manufacturing  energy  policy  energy  price  renewable  energy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Tories  Conservative  Party  Toff  Establishment  Privileged  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  reflate  reflation  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  underinvestment  productive  investment  public  investment  business  investment  business  confidence  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  competitive  competition  competitiveness  globalization  globalisation  global  trade  added  value  value  creation  corporate  tax  rate  capital  gains  tax  inequality  Gini  coefficient  poverty  trap  child  poverty  social  mobility  income  mobility  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  pound 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: In the Valley, pre-seed is a meme. In New York, it’s a necessity
// cost of entry? // unable to make it happen? // Can't you write software from anywhere? // problem, heavily diluted early on approaching A/B, traditional shops don't like the cap table of pre-seed, angels, seed, accelerator & Micro VC's already owning ~+40% ... you come to a traditional A/B shop and not one of the existing investors is actually leading the round or committed in paper do double down? // // from a financial perspective/investment/math --- in the PRIVATE MARKET thrown under the bus by NIRP, QE, hunt for yield and FOMO (looking for their female unicorn or own Zuck) everyone can run 100 burger stands with unlimited/stellar returns in their spreadsheet model (bc cost of capital being 0 or negative). Despite the deflation of price of software & hosting (marginal cost, economics of abundance), Talent got bid up heavily (+200k/y in LA by Snapchat) in certain cities (SV, NY, London) // &! Steen Jakobsen - youtu.be/fnp5ETnKylU - min 16 avg guy does not have access to credit!
Seed  Round  Party  Round  Venture  Capital  Micro  VC  barriers  to  entry  cost  of  entry  London  Start-up  Scene  ecosystem  New  York  Scene  burn  rate  runway  traction  A  Round  seedfunding  funding  Angel  Investor  dilution  cap  table  lesson  advice  liquidation  preferences  hunt  for  yield  2015  distortion  FOMO  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  Limited  Partners  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Wall  Street  asset  bubble  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  Silicon  Valley  Private  Market  Public  Market  reflate  reflation  cost  of  living  valuation  Unicorn  Decacorn  cost  of  leverage  financial  repression  financial  literacy  financial  financial  cycle  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  hubris  panic  irrational  exuberance  retail  banking  investment  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  crisis 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
«Die Chinesen haben einen Plan – und das ist ein gewaltiger Vorteil» - watson
[ focus on productive investment in the future - is hard to get going, internal economic re-tooling - social safety net, pension, health care - so people have higher propensity to spend/consume. ] Das Seidenstrasse-Projekt [massive integration of Asia/Africa into its own future, non-dependent on western world!!!] ist – obwohl die Chinesen diesen Vergleich hassen – eine Art Marshallplan. Sie sagen den asiatischen Schwellenländern: Ihr könnt Kredite von unseren Entwicklungsfonds haben, und ihr kauft unsere Produkte. China braucht seine riesigen Dollarreserven, um dieses Projekt zu finanzieren. [...] Zeigen Sie mir einen Plan für Europa? Oder für die USA? Die Chinesen haben einen Plan, und allein das ist ein gewaltiger Vorteil. [ 21st century economy, STEM, research, added value, productive investment, high end manufacturing type of the future ie bio, gene stuff, 3D printing, knowledge economy, added value services by educated & skilled workforce, social mobility, sense of agency ]
AIIB  China  economic  history  2015  credit  bubble  deflationary  deflation  devaluation  currency-war  currency  war  currency  debasement  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  developed  world  Developing  BRIC  austerity  infrastructure  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  sovereign  debt  crisis  banking  crisis  21stcentury  public  investment  personal  investment  underinvestment  education  policy  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  status  quo  Career  Politicians  social  contract  lost  decade  lost  generation  recovery  GFC  budget2015  Frontier  Markets  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  industrial  policy  Revolution  2.0  added  value  value  creation  STEM  Software  Is  Eating  The  knowledge  economy  secular  stagnation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History - YouTube
ideology/Career Politicians/Complacency/Cushy/non-ambitious/AIIB/comfortable //&! bit.ly/1cU2RVS March 2015, SELL & come back in 6 months - bloom.bg/1NTykGB //&! bit.ly/1NJvXai &! bit.ly/1VsYTEJ Outrageous predictions for 2015 were: China devalues yuan 20% [joining others in global struggle to import inflation] &! Corporate high yield market spreads double (higher refinancing cost, which zombie corporations do actually have no pants on as tide goes out) "High yield is a derivative of equity markets. If you believe equities are overvalued, so too is high yield," &! UK house prices crash (foreign hot money, speculative + shortage + Summer 2015 Crash + BOE Taper in 2015/16 = back to reality!) &! Russia defaults again // &! Fed Taper is a "margin call," [need 2 normalize despite its mandate/fundamentals not warranting a hike!] [...] a seven-year bull run 4 equities might be coming to an end [...] the rise (not value) of RMB/Yuan as it becomes free floating out of need] - cnb.cx/1MMyLSC
Abenomics  Yen  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  currency-war  fiat  currency  currency  debasement  currency  war  deflationary  deflation  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  credit  cycle  business  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  investment  public  investment  personal  investment  infrastructure  investment  rebalancing  structural  imbalance  Impediments  infrastructure  Career  Politicians  short-term  Fortune  500  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Wall  Street  ROI  STEM  Research  R&D  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  output  gap  productivity  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Robotics  3D  printing  Steen  Jakobsen  financial  incentive  secular  stagnation  Manufacturing  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  AIIB  Asia  European  Union  share  buyback  2015  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  developed  liquidity  trap  UK  USA  Europe  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  bank  bailout  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  ideology  dogma  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Dan Ariely: Why The Next Market Downturn May Quickly Become A Full-Blown Panic - YouTube
free self-regulated market where winner take all - creates adverse outcomes. //<< Book - The Darwin Economy: Liberty, Competition, and the Common Good by Robert H. Frank - Competition can be devastating if it is about winner take all !!! - youtu.be/hmbfK​DvDrJI - via Dan Ariely // // !!! QE - reflate - hope and pray confidence will come back and economy roars back to health. did not happen. // poverty trap // trend continues w inequality, // post-racial America // inability to get out of bad situation // under banked, payday loan // studies have shown, Americans imagine/think of their countries more equal and just than Sweden // (1) create new financial institution, retail banking serving people (not making 15% profit p/a to give it to share holders even demanding more) like Sparkassen // (2) reform education // (stop damaging) narrative of invisible hand - getting the best out of people // national identity // sense of agency !!!
inequality  QE  competitive  competition  winner  take  all  monopoly  monopsony  book  shared  economic  interest  common  good  Dan  Ariely  China  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  Super  Rich  1%  asset  bubble  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  child  poverty  poverty  USA  UK  Europe  austerity  recovery  2015  social  cohesion  social  tension  social  contract  welfare  state  social  safety  net  education  policy  skill-biased  technological  change  skills  gap  western  world  post-racial  America  Jim  Crow  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  Germany  food  poverty  budget2015  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Privileged  Toff  Establishment  Public  Services  Services  society  racial  segregation  gentrification  Gentrified  class  segregation  urbanisation  urban  planning  social  housing  affordable  housing  Lügenpresse  manufactured  consent  corporate  media  corporate  state  propaganda  populism  stigma  self-regulation  deregulation  Wall  Street  invisible  hand  crony  capitalism  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  bank  bailout  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  meritocra 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Easy Money Creates the Most Dangerous Bubbles - Bloomberg View
[Money has been slushing arnd in markets speculating, not investing in future & productive, added value goods. big companies are flush 2. easy credit is holding zombie corps of the last century over water. western world is persisting 2 put a banking bailout/crisis in the light of a sovereign debt crisis 2 push idealogical austerity. falling way being, never be able 2 catch up with productivity, output gap, STEM, research, future of work, smart grid & infrastructure, retooling their economy 21st century style.] // "speculation in property markets, amplified by mortgage financing, as a persistent central factor driving economic cycles." [...] the worst bubbles -- those that inflict the most economic pain -- tend to involve not just speculation, but a surge in easy lending and increasing leverage. [...] economic downturns following credit bubbles were generally worse and lasted longer. [...] danger of leverage cycle. // [ easy credit & debt fuelled recovery of assets, not fundamentals ]
book  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  economic  history  zombie  banks  Mark  Blyth  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  business  confidence  business  investment  economic  damage  2015  faultlines  structural  imbalance  structural  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  education  policy  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  recovery  western  world  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Smart  Grid  Software  Is  Eating  The  GFC  Career  Politicians  status  quo  social  contract  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  banking  crisis  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  financial  market  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Impediments  distortion  economic  model  economic  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  financial  incentive  financial  repression  financial  literacy  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Fed  monetary  stimulus  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  BIS  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  PBOC  China  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  academia  academics  economic-thought  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  hubris  panic  consumer  confidence  confidence  trust  banking  investment  banking  distr 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Forget China - Oil Price Is Main Driver Of Market Turmoil | Zero Hedge
For the moment we are expecting oil producers to start to minimize their loses by producing even more oil. The oil crisis has just begun. // // &! DeMark compares China to the start of the Great Depression in the US, and when applying the 38.2 Fib retracement levels which have been breached, now expects even more pain for Chinese stocks - bit.ly/1NJdISb // // &! THINGS WERE TOO FAR AWAY FROM REALITY - Many indicators confirm that last week was remarkable and historic. Record after record was set, including the largest daily move, the biggest intra-day reversal and the most harrowing intra-day air pocket. - bv.ms/1O45W2i - legitimate questions about the robustness of the global economy [ contagion & overshoot - hubris and panic alike, good news gets washed down w bad news, extreme volatility still break markets, contagion still real & ppl are leveraged again (were complacent, institutional! investors!) ] market craziness. [ irrational exuberance that were equities ]. &! bv.ms/1UnLeMV
Oil  price  energy  price  OPEC  2015  China  commodities  global  trade  global  economy  western  world  developed  world  BRIC  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  PBOC  economic  slowdown  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  Fed  BOE  BOJ  ECB  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  economic  history  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  contagion  VIX  volatility  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  margin  trading  deleveraging  Greed  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  hubris  panic  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  irrational  exuberance  economic  growth  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  zombie  banks  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  recovery  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  economic  damage 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
(2012/13) After the Financial Crisis: How to Tell the Forest from the Trees - YouTube
"Profits are privatized while losses are socialized. How we got here, and how we can get out of this situation." // min20 - UK debt2GDP 2008, +100% Debt on Banks Balance Sheet, ~100% Household Debt, +100% Nonfinancial institutional/corporate Debt, <50% Gov Debt ( bit.ly/1u6QiLP ) risen to <80% Gov Debt2GDP bc of Bank Bailout. ( gross national debt has been rising, unable to pay down because of lack of growth, turning Japan - bit.ly/1f7UNyp ) // It is still a banking crisis. Especially in Europe. Not a sovereign debt crisis. Greece situation made much worse because of austerity. // min 32 - talks about China! China's Assets and Liabilities. 70% of global consumption is US/EU. [but shifting!] From CDO example, China correlates with US/EU vice versa! Chinese property bubble & equity bubble, came 2 an end this Summer 2015! The crisis began w banks & will end w banks! The crisis is still with us. The banks, stupid! // investment banking bust bc of low yields across all public asset classes
Mark  Blyth  austerity  GFC  recovery  2015  economic  history  bank  bailout  sovereign  debt  crisis  Greece  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  liquidity  trap  ECB  UK  BOE  Fed  USA  China  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  global  imbalances  savings  rate  savings  glut  shadow  banking  investment  banking  banking  crisis  European  Union  hunt  for  yield  reflate  reflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bond  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  toxicassets  badbank  policy  error  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  Richard  Koo  trust  distrust  trustagent  Insolvenzverschleppung  insolvency  insolvent  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  globalization  globalisation  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  business  investment  New  Normal  margin  trading  demographic  bubble  property  bubble  equity  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  emerging  middle  class  Frontier  Markets  Developing  BRIC  emerging  market  IMF  OECD  credit  bubble  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Thomas  Piketty  poverty  social  mobility 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Gurley on Global Selloff: Bloomberg West (Full Show 8/21) - YouTube
'averting catastrophic events' - hard things about hard things - book // when taking on growth round to grow aggressively company (buying customer growth)... you might actually take on risk. especially when the sentiment and the market turns and you burned it all and weren't so good at allocating the money and 'growing' you have to maybe raise a flat/downround ... ooopsies. Or even have to accept a debt round and massive lay-off to get to cash flow even/positive. And run a tight ship with the user base/business you've got. // re: post-price correction after speculative China bubble burst and massive China weakness and still existing/persistent deflationary pressures in western world. // &! bit.ly/1NTc3GM - Public markets affect venture funding. Full stop.
growth  round  IPO  Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  Private  Market  Unicorn  Decacorn  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  2015  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  burn  rate  runway  sentiment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  China  recovery  bubble  reflate  reflation  book  Ben  Horowitz  Marc  Andreessen  business  model  cash  flow  cash-is-king  Start-Up  lesson  financial  model  Start-Up  advice  valuation  Mark  Suster  Wall  Street 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's Devaluation Becomes Japan's Problem - Bloomberg View
The worsening economy, which voters hoped Abe would have sorted out by now, doesn't help. Inflation-adjusted wages dropped 2.9 percent in June, a sign Monday's second-quarter gross domestic product report for the may be truly ugly. [...] After 961 days, all Abenomics has really achieved is a sharply weaker yen, modest steps to tighten corporate governance and marketing slogans asking companies to hire more women. [...] If Japan offers a cautionary tale, it's that weaker currency alone isn't the answer. If Abe had used the yen's 35 percent plunge since late 2012 to good effect -- passing big reforms on labor flexibility, import tariffs, tax policy, supporting startups, reducing red tape -- Japan might not be facing the prospect of another recession. [ Japan's experience is a red flashing warning light for UK, US and especially Germany. ie uncompetitive Zombie corporations held alive with NIRP, ZIRP, and future new normal low interest rate environment. Where is growth? Silicon Valley. ]
Japan  economic  history  Abenomics  BOJ  2015  China  Yuan  RMB  currency  debasement  currency  war  devaluation  fiscal  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  policy  deflationary  deflation  globalisation  globalization  secular  stagnation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Makers  competitive  competitiveness  Exportweltmeister  competitive  advantage  competition  flat  world  New  Normal  Richard  Koo  Developing  Frontier  Markets  borderless  global  trade  global  economy  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  financial  crisis  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombi  banks  creative  destruction  Silicon  Valley  technological  progress  skill-biased  technological  change  Software  Is  Eating  The  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Future  of  Work  deleveraging  asset  bubble  Wall  Street  reflation  reflate  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  inflation  targeting  Fed  BOE  PBOC  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
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creditcard ⊕  creditcrisis ⊕  creditcrunch ⊕  creditrating ⊕  creditrisk ⊕  crime ⊕  Crimea ⊕  crimes ⊕  criminal ⊕  crisis ⊕  crony ⊕  crop ⊕  Crow ⊕  cryptography ⊕  CSR ⊕  culture ⊕  currency ⊕  currency-war ⊕  current ⊕  Curtain ⊕  cyber ⊕  cyberespionage ⊕  cycle ⊕  cycling ⊕  cyprus ⊕  Dairy ⊕  damage ⊕  Dan ⊕  Darling ⊕  Data ⊕  Dataretention ⊕  DAU ⊕  David ⊕  davidcameron ⊕  de ⊕  de-escalation ⊕  debasement ⊕  debate ⊕  debt ⊕  debt-fuelled ⊕  debtceiling ⊕  debtoverhang ⊕  Decacorn ⊕  decade ⊕  deception ⊕  decline ⊕  default ⊕  deficit ⊕  deflation ⊕  deflationary ⊕  deleveraging ⊕  Deliveroo ⊕  Delivery ⊕  demand ⊕  democracy ⊕  Democratic ⊕  Democrats ⊕  demographic ⊕  demographics ⊕  demography ⊕  Den ⊕  Denialist ⊕  depletion ⊕  deposit ⊕  Deposits ⊕  depression ⊕  deprivation ⊕  deregulation ⊕  derivatives ⊕  destruction ⊕  Deutsche ⊕  deutschebank ⊕  devaluation ⊕  developed ⊕  Developing ⊕  development ⊕  devo-max ⊕  Devolution ⊕  DFB ⊕  diabetes ⊕  Die ⊕  diet ⊕  dietary ⊕  dieting ⊕  differentiate ⊕  differentiation ⊕  digital ⊕  Dilma ⊕  dilution ⊕  dioxide ⊕  diplomacy ⊕  direct ⊕  Dirk ⊕  dis-inflation ⊕  Disabled ⊕  disaster ⊕  discount ⊕  discounted ⊕  discounting ⊕  discourse ⊕  discretionary ⊕  discrimination ⊕  diseases ⊕  disenfranchise ⊕  disinflation ⊕  disorder ⊕  disorders ⊕  display ⊕  disposable ⊕  disrupting ⊕  disruption ⊕  distortion ⊕  distribution ⊕  distrust ⊕  divergence ⊕  diversity ⊕  dividends ⊕  DLA ⊕  doctor ⊕  Dodd-Frank ⊕  dogma ⊕  DoJ ⊕  DOJ ⊕  Dollar ⊕  domestic ⊕  Don't ⊕  Donald ⊕  door ⊕  DoorDash ⊕  doping ⊕  Doping-System ⊕  DOSB ⊕  dot.com ⊕  double ⊕  double-dip ⊕  double-standard ⊕  Downtown ⊕  downward ⊕  Draft ⊕  Dream ⊕  Drinkfly ⊕  drinking ⊕  DropBox ⊕  drought ⊕  Druckenmiller ⊕  Drugs ⊕  Duncan ⊕  DWP ⊕  e-commerce ⊕  easing ⊕  East ⊕  east-europe ⊕  Eat ⊕  eating ⊕  EBA ⊕  EBX ⊕  ECB ⊕  Ecclestone ⊕  ecological ⊕  economic ⊕  economic-thought ⊕  economics ⊕  economists ⊕  economy ⊕  ecosystem ⊕  Ed ⊕  EdBalls ⊕  education ⊕  Edward ⊕  effect ⊕  efficiencies ⊕  efficiency ⊕  EFSF ⊕  Egg ⊕  ego ⊕  Eike ⊕  Eikonal-Affäre ⊕  ELA ⊕  election ⊕  election2012 ⊕  Elephant ⊕  elite ⊕  Ellen ⊕  Elon ⊕  emerging ⊕  emergingmarkets ⊕  emotion ⊕  empathy ⊕  employment ⊕  EMU ⊕  encryption ⊕  endocrine ⊕  endocrinology ⊕  Energiewende ⊕  energy ⊕  engagement ⊕  Enlightenment ⊕  entitlement ⊕  entrepreneur ⊕  entrepreneurial ⊕  entrepreneurship ⊕  entry ⊕  environment ⊕  environmental ⊕  epidemic ⊕  epigenetics ⊕  Epstein ⊕  equality ⊕  equilibria ⊕  equities ⊕  equity ⊕  era ⊕  Erdogan ⊕  erosion ⊕  error ⊕  ESA ⊕  escape ⊕  escapeism ⊕  ESM ⊕  espionage ⊕  eSport ⊕  Establishment ⊕  ethic ⊕  ethical ⊕  ethics ⊕  ethnic ⊕  eureka ⊕  EURIBOR ⊕  Euro ⊕  Eurobond ⊕  Eurogroup ⊕  Europa ⊕  europe ⊕  European ⊕  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard ⊕  europeanunion ⊕  Europol ⊕  evasion ⊕  Evernote ⊕  evil ⊕  evolution ⊕  excess ⊕  excessive ⊕  exchange ⊕  exclusion ⊕  Existenzangst ⊕  exit ⊕  expectation ⊕  expectations ⊕  Expenditure ⊕  experience ⊕  exploitation ⊕  export ⊕  exports ⊕  Exportweltmeister ⊕  exposure ⊕  external ⊕  externalaties ⊕  externality ⊕  extinction ⊕  extrem ⊕  extreme ⊕  extremism ⊕  extrovert ⊕  exuberance ⊕  eyeballs ⊕  Eyes ⊕  EZB ⊕  F-35 ⊕  Fab.com ⊕  fabric ⊕  Facebook ⊕  Facility ⊕  Factory ⊕  fad ⊕  fagile ⊕  failure ⊕  fairness ⊕  fairy ⊕  faith ⊕  far-right ⊕  Farage ⊕  farming ⊕  Fashion ⊕  Fast ⊕  fat ⊕  fault ⊕  faultlines ⊕  FBI ⊕  FCA ⊕  FCC ⊕  FDA ⊕  FDI ⊕  FDIC ⊕  fear ⊕  fearmongering ⊕  Fed ⊕  Female ⊕  feminism ⊕  feminist ⊕  Ferguson ⊕  FIA ⊕  fiat ⊕  fiatmoney ⊕  fiduciary ⊕  FIFA ⊕  fightagainstterror ⊕  filter ⊕  filters ⊕  finacials ⊕  finance ⊕  financial ⊕  financialcrisis ⊕  financialmarket ⊕  financialmarkets ⊕  financialtransactionfee ⊕  financialtransactiontax ⊕  financing ⊕  finite ⊕  FinTech ⊕  first ⊕  FISA ⊕  FISAAA ⊕  fiscal ⊕  Fish ⊕  Fit ⊕  Fitch ⊕  Five ⊕  flash ⊕  flat ⊕  flight ⊕  flooding ⊕  floods ⊕  floor ⊕  flow ⊕  fly ⊕  follow ⊕  folly ⊕  FOMO ⊕  food ⊕  for ⊕  force ⊕  forecast ⊕  foreign ⊕  foreignaffairs ⊕  Forex ⊕  Formula ⊕  Fortune ⊕  forward ⊕  fossil ⊕  Founders ⊕  Fox ⊕  fracking ⊕  fractional ⊕  fragile ⊕  framing ⊕  france ⊕  Francisco ⊕  FrancoisHollande ⊕  fraud ⊕  Frauenquote ⊕  Fred ⊕  free ⊕  freedom ⊕  freemium ⊕  friends ⊕  Friendship ⊕  FROB ⊕  Front ⊕  Frontier ⊕  frontiermarkets ⊕  frothy ⊕  FSA ⊕  fuel ⊕  Fuentes ⊕  fukushima ⊕  full ⊕  fund ⊕  funding ⊕  funds ⊕  Funnel ⊕  Future ⊕  FX ⊕  G ⊕  G7 ⊕  G20 ⊕  gains ⊕  gamble ⊕  game ⊕  gap ⊕  gas ⊕  gatekeeper ⊕  GBP ⊕  GCHQ ⊕  GDP ⊕  GE2017 ⊕  Geithner ⊕  gender ⊕  gender-based ⊕  gene ⊕  general ⊕  generation ⊕  generational ⊕  Generationengerechtigkeit ⊕  generations ⊕  generationy ⊕  genetics ⊕  gentrification ⊕  Gentrified ⊕  geopolitics ⊕  George ⊕  GeorgeOsborne ⊕  georgewbush ⊕  Gerechtigkeit ⊕  Gerhard ⊕  Germany ⊕  Gesellschaft ⊕  GFC ⊕  Ghraib ⊕  gini ⊕  glass ⊕  Glass–Steagall ⊕  Glenn ⊕  global ⊕  global-economy ⊕  globalisation ⊕  globalization ⊕  Glossy ⊕  glut ⊕  Glyphosate ⊕  GMO ⊕  gold ⊕  golden ⊕  goldmansachs ⊕  good ⊕  Google ⊕  Gordon ⊕  gordonbrown ⊕  Gore ⊕  gossip ⊕  governance ⊕  government ⊕  Grant ⊕  Great ⊕  greatdepression ⊕  greatrecession ⊕  Greece ⊕  greed ⊕  green ⊕  greenspan ⊕  Greenspan-Put ⊕  Greenwald ⊕  Grexit ⊕  Grid ⊕  GroKo ⊕  Gross ⊕  groups ⊕  growth ⊕  Grundeinkommen ⊕  Guantanamo ⊕  Guardian ⊕  Guardiola ⊕  guidance ⊕  guidelines ⊕  Gupta ⊕  Gurley ⊕  gwbush ⊕  Haag ⊕  hacker ⊕  Hague ⊕  Hailo ⊕  haircut ⊕  Hammond ⊕  Hamster ⊕  hand ⊕  handshake ⊕  happiness ⊕  harassment ⊕  harm ⊕  hartz-iv ⊕  hayek ⊕  headwinds ⊕  health ⊕  Hedge ⊕  hedgefonds ⊕  hedgefund ⊕  Hegemony ⊕  Heights ⊕  Helicopter ⊕  Hello ⊕  Help ⊕  henrypaulson ⊕  herbicide ⊕  Hero ⊕  Higher ⊕  Hillary ⊕  Hinkley ⊕  history ⊕  HMRC ⊕  Hollywood ⊕  Holyrood ⊕  homescreen ⊕  Homo-Ehe ⊕  Homophobia ⊕  homophobic ⊕  honesty ⊕  Hooligan ⊕  Horowitz ⊕  hot ⊕  hot-money ⊕  Hour ⊕  House ⊕  household ⊕  housing ⊕  Houzz ⊕  HR ⊕  HS2 ⊕  Hsieh ⊕  hubris ⊕  human ⊕  humanity ⊕  hunt ⊕  Hype ⊕  hyperinflation ⊕  hypocrisy ⊕  I.O.C. ⊕  IAAF ⊕  Iain ⊕  IBS ⊕  ICC ⊕  identity ⊕  ideology ⊕  IfTheyGunnedMeDown ⊕  ignorance ⊕  II ⊕  III ⊕  illiteracy ⊕  image ⊕  imbalance ⊕  imbalances ⊕  IMF ⊕  IMG ⊕  immigration ⊕  Impediments ⊕  impression ⊕  in ⊕  in-work ⊕  incentive ⊕  income ⊕  income-based ⊕  incomplete ⊕  independence ⊕  Independent ⊕  index ⊕  India ⊕  Indian ⊕  individualism ⊕  individuality ⊕  industrial ⊕  industry ⊕  inequality ⊕  infertility ⊕  inflammation ⊕  inflation ⊕  influence ⊕  Informant ⊕  information ⊕  infrastructure ⊕  inherited ⊕  innovation ⊕  insecurity ⊕  insider ⊕  insidertrading ⊕  insolvency ⊕  insolvent ⊕  Insolvenzverschleppung ⊕  Instacart ⊕  Instagram ⊕  insurance ⊕  Insured ⊕  Integrationspolitik ⊕  integrity ⊕  intelligence ⊕  interbank ⊕  interdiction ⊕  interest ⊕  interestrate ⊕  Interestrateswap ⊕  International ⊕  internet ⊕  Interpol ⊕  intervention ⊕  intrinsic ⊕  introvert ⊕  investigative ⊕  investment ⊕  Investor ⊕  invisible ⊕  IPO ⊕  IRA ⊕  ireland ⊕  Iron ⊕  irrational