asterisk2a + centralbanks   87

(1928) Keiser Report: Financialized Economy (E1088) - YouTube
All the Plenary’s Men // tbtf is a protection racket!!! (FSB, SFO, systemic relevant banks) & laws - immunity from protection - protects people from prosecution. ... tbtf "global banking cartel" - they can to no wrong. more powerful than the gov. sovereign power.
HSBC  money  laundering  London  GFC  compliance  oversight  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  George  Osborne  benbernanke  FSB  BIS  BOE  centralbanks  SFO  fraud  UK  USA  ECB  systemic  White-collar  crime  banking  TBTF  toobigtofail  bank  bailout  Transparency  accountability  Russia  War  on  Drugs  corruption  lobby  tax  evasion  avoidance  terrorism  terror  ethics  governance  abuse  Military–industrial  complex 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
Money: The Too Big to Fail Edition by Panoply Media
Neil Irwin, author of The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire, joins hosts Felix Salmon of Fusion, Cathy O’Neil of mathbabe.org, and Slate’s Moneybox columnist Jordan Weissmann. This week is all about Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed's new solution for our too-big-to-fail banks. //!& breaking up has complexity ... financial-industrial complex! //
too  big  to  bail  toobigtofail  TBTF  retail  banking  investment  banking  VAR  discounted  risk  systemicrisk  discounting  risk  BIS  centralbanks  liquidity  trap  GFC  financial  product  recovery  TARP  UK  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  economic  history  book  monopsony  oligopoly  oligopol  repo  interbank  lending  complexity  financial-industrial  complex  leverage  derivatives 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
IMF warns of new financial crisis if interest rates rise | Business | The Guardian
Fund says governments in emerging markets should prepare now for a new credit crunch because of a 10-year corporate borrowing binge [...] “Shocks to the corporate sector could quickly spill over to the financial sector and generate a vicious cycle as banks curtail lending. Decreased loan supply would then lower aggregate demand and collateral values, further reducing access to finance and thereby economic activity, and in turn, increasing losses to the financial sector,” the IMF warns. [...] “Emerging markets must prepare for the adverse domestic stability implications of global financial tightening,” the IMF says.
credit  bubble  2015  Taper  centralbanks  IMF  OECD  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  Richard  Koo  Debt  Super  Cycle  BRIC  AIIB  World  Bank  recovery  global  economy  global  trade  globalization  globalisation  flat  borderless  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  FOMO  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  malinvestment  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  China  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  OPEC  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  western  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  austerity  divergence  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  Niall  Ferguson  Fed  mandate  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  bailout  banking  crisis  crisis  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inequality  Gini  coefficient  NPL  shadow  banking  zombie  corporations  junk  bond  creditrating  distortion  financial  financial  crisis  GFC 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Anatomy of Brazil's Financial Meltdown - Bloomberg View
Brazil desperately needs a circuit breaker to eliminate the mounting threat of cascading negative outcomes. The best way to achieve this would be a series of official decisions, designed by the government and passed by the legislature, that restore the country's growth dynamic, contain its fiscal deterioration and reverse mounting inflationary pressures.
BRIC  credit  bubble  commodity  prices  China  Russia  OPEC  Oil  price  2015  centralbanks  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  western  world  secular  stagnation  global  economy  global  trade  global  imbalances  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Fed chief Yellen says US rate rise still likely this year - BBC News
The US remains "on track" for an interest rate rise this year, Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen has said. The central bank head said as long as inflation was stable and the US economy was strong enough to boost jobs, the conditions would be right for a rise. Despite expectations of a rise this month, the Fed held rates, in part due to fears about global economic growth. Ms Yellen, speaking at the University of Massachusetts, said US economic prospects "generally appear solid". Speaking a week after the Fed delayed that long-anticipated hike, she said she and other policymakers did not expect recent global economic and financial market developments to significantly affect the central bank's policy. Much recent inflationary weakness is due to special and likely temporary factors, such as a strong dollar and low oil prices, she said. //&! http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-25/janet-yellen-s-flip-flop-confuses-markets
Janet  Yellen  Fed  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  secular  stagnation  western  world  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  QT  petrodollar  Petroleum  Industry  commodity  prices  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  Brazil  Russia  India  BIS  Richard  Koo  global  economy  global  trade  2015  BOE  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  household  debt  consumer  debt  private  debt  credit  card  car  loan  Student  deleveraging  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  growth  low  income  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  job  market  labour  economics  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  competitive  competition  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  recovery  fiscal  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  asset  bubble  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  Super  Rich  1%  hot-money  currency-war  currency  war  currency  debasement  Dollar  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  distortion  irrational  exuberance  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  USA  UK 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bubble Machine Timeline: Visual Evidence Of The Fed's "Third Mandate" | Zero Hedge
The problem with rushing to combat any sign of economic or financial market turmoil by resorting immediately to counter-cyclical policies is that the creative destruction that would normally serve to purge speculative excess isn’t allowed to operate and so, misallocated capital is allowed to linger from crisis to crisis, making the next boom and subsequent bust even larger than the last.
financial  crisis  financial  cycle  business  cycle  centralbanks  BIS  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Fed  mandate  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  credit  bubble  Debt  Super  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  dot.com  GFC  recovery  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  Boom  and  Bust  distortion  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  bank  bailout  creative  destruction  Failure  market  Career  Politicians  Ben  Bernanke  Greenspan-Put  alangreenspan  Janet  Yellen  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  inequality  Gini  coefficient  social  cohesion  social  tension  social  contract  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  servitude  sovereign  crisis  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  western  world  crony  capitalism  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  corruption  bribery  revolving  door  capitalism  Wall  Street  shared  economic  interest  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  investment  banking  retail  banking  post-capitalism 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Zumper: One-Third Of San Francisco’s Rent Is Attributable To VC Funding | TechCrunch
[capital efficiency?] // the other 1/4th is bidding up via credit bubble riches, diversification. other 2/4ths from planning restriction and natural biz cycle of sv //&! http://www.thebolditalic.com/articles/7266-an-open-letter-to-anyone-moving-to-san-francisco-for-a-tech-job - For context, people are right to be angry; shit is certainly fucked up. Since 2010, rents have risen by 40%, and eviction rates have risen by 38%—two rapid changes that have had very visual consequences all across the city. Much of SoMa, for instance, looks like an elephant graveyard. Sidewalks look like the surface of the moon; alleys are littered with broken glass; and streets are strewn with sleeping persons and human shit. All of this can be observed from in the shade of the brand-new office buildings and luxury condos that now line the streets everywhere east of 4th Street. [...] those who move to San Francisco and don’t engage with the community dilute and adulterate San Francisco’s sense of character.
San  Francisco  Venture  Capital  cost  of  living  cost  of  entry  standard  of  living  city  living  burn  rate  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  runway  Networking  Network  economies  of  agglomeration  ecosystem  community  gentrification  Gentrified  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  QE  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  NIRP  centralbanks  asset  allocation  alternative  investment  allocation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: BIZ warnt vor Krediten in Schwellenländern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich sieht Alarmzeichen für Banken in vielen Schwellenländern. Die Kreditvergabe in China, Brasilien oder der Türkei habe ein bedrohliches Verhältnis angenommen, warnt die Notenbank. // &! Die Welt steuert auf den Bankrott zu (QE trap): Eine vorläufige Antwort: Das tieferliegende Problem besteht darin, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt auf den Bankrott zubewegt - und das wird umso schneller gehen, je höher die Zinsen sind und je niedriger die Preissteigerungsraten.
BIS  credit  bubble  2015  China  BRIC  NPL  shadow  banking  junk  bond  creditrating  banking  crisis  excess  reserves  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  centralbanks  economic  history  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  speculative  bubbles  FX  reserves  Turkey  Brazil  Developing  World  Fed  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Raghuram  Rajan  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  ECB  emerging  market  emerging  middle  class  AIIB  Asia  South  Africa  Latin  America  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  western  Niall  Ferguson  globalization  globalisation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  income  growth  income  mobility  income  gap  wage  growth  GFC  recovery  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Pact  European  Union  UK  USA  Richard  Koo  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  dogma  ideology  Fed  mandate  inflation  targeting  New  Normal  bond  bubble  QE  trap  liquidity  trap  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  property  bubble  capital  allocation  QT  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  digital  economy  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  World  Bank  IMF  savings  glut  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  Super  Cycle  debt  ser 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
RICHARD KOO: 'Struggle between markets and central banks has only just begun' - Business Insider
… much of the rise in share prices and fall in currency values under QE were nothing more than liquidity-driven phenomena divorced from real economy fundamentals. Now that an end to QE is in sight, it is time for a correction. Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks several months ago about elevated stock market valuations were most likely a reference to this bubble. A correction of some kind was inevitable as the Fed moved to normalize monetary policy. However, it still needed a trigger, and that was provided by China. [...] “The market gyrations of the last two months represent just the beginning of the QE trap”, says Koo.
Richard  Koo  Taper  2015  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Janet  Yellen  Fed  mandate  China  BRIC  global  economy  global  trade  western  world  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  property  bubble  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  distortion  correction  Student  Loan  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BIS  centralbanks  BOE  Abenomics  BOJ  ECB  Fed  unconventional  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  excess  reserves  retail  banking  consumer  debt  household  debt  deleveraging  wage  growth  income  growth  low  income  marginal  propensity  to  consume  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  Niall  Ferguson  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  recovery  GFC  austerity  Schuldenbremse  Pact  European  Union  UK  USA  Career  Politicians  crony  capitalism  No  Representation  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  sovereign  debt  crisis  PR  spin  doctor  reframing  framing  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  investment  banking  business  investment  business  confidence  Blue  Ocean  PBOC  New  Normal  economic  growth  monetary  stimulus 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Is Global Economic Doubt Behind the Unchanged Rate? - YouTube
youtu.be/f5_AGIMe32k // much higher $ already put ~25bps on US domestic market. // Fed is a risk manager now // labour market got a check mark, but not inflation bc of tech, stronger$ (taper anticipation), commodities lower, further deflationary pressures (retail price fighting 4 increase like4like sales), globalisation (competition), secular stagnation (continued low growth in western world, lower aggregate demand overall, lower baseline), consumer unable 2pickup where it threw in hat (deleveraging, no savings, debt overhang household, consumer). A new normal of growth of ~3% (give/take) globally aggregate & western wrld (2-2.5%, EU aggregate even lower). In this world, THERE WILL BE NO INFLATION PRESSURE (2% or higher, &3bn ppl free labour wrldwide) IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS THE REAL ECONOMY 4 EVERY DAY FOLK DOESNT REFLECT REFLATED ASSET PRICES via QE, ZIRP, credit bubbles arnd world enabled by central banks. &! youtu.be/NVa5fkz8X0o &! youtu.be/Ny3bbonX3d0 &! 1.usa.gov/1JdKZxp
Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  2015  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Janet  Yellen  participation  rate  employment  underemployed  full  employment  unemployment  structural  unemployment  USA  China  BRIC  credit  bubble  complexity  global  economy  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  property  bubble  BIS  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  secular  stagnation  western  world  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Super  Rich  1%  faultlines  savings  glut  Impediments  structural  imbalance  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  disposable  income  income  inequality  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  UK  BOE  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  security  labour  market  recovery  policy  response  fiscal  policy  austerity  Schuldenbremse  Pact  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &! youtu.be/SZe3issLIb8
Raghuram  Rajan  BIS  centralbanks  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  excess  reserves  speculative  bubbles  reflate  reflation  economic  history  faultlines  credit  bubble  BRIC  2015  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  secular  stagnation  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  globalization  globalisation  financial  market  zombie  banks  savings  glut  business  confidence  business  investment  USA  UK  Europe  China  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  speculative  speculation  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  ECB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  deflationary  deflation  fiscal  policy  irrational  exuberance  panic  hubris  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Taper  book  structural  imbalance  Impediments  reserve  currency  fiat  currency  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  fiscal  deficit  fiscal  stimulus  Germany  austerity  dogma  ideology  credibility  Career  Politicians  Pact  Schuldenbremse  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  complexity  incomplete  information  shadow  banking  uncertainty  volatility  distortion  financial  repression  governance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Austerity Now: Brazil's Downgrade and Reckoning - Bloomberg View
Brazil faces its deepest recession in 25 years, policy drift and now a reputation deficit that threaten to undo years of prosperity and social gains. [...] even years on, with the economy set to shrink by two percent this year, and unemployment and consumer debt spiking, Brazil looks more likely cast as the leader of submerging markets and the sick man of the BRICS, the club of outsize developing nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- once touted to lead world growth.
liberal  economic  reform  economic  reform  BRIC  credit  bubble  2015  Brazil  China  India  Russia  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  centralbanks  BIS  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  global  trade  global  economy  GFC  recovery  PBOC  economic  history  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  liquidity  trap  2008  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  Carry  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  commodity  prices  South  Africa  democracy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  bribery  corruption 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
ABN Amro Warns There Is A 40% Chance Mario Draghi Expands ECB QE "As Soon As This Week" | Zero Hedge
The bottom line is that markets may fear that QT has much more to go." Deutsche was kind enough to provide a silver lining to this otherwise dreary forecast: "What could turn sentiment more positive? The first is other central banks coming in to fill the gap that the PBoC is leaving. China’s QT would need to be replaced by higher QE elsewhere, with the ECB and BoJ being the most notable candidates." [... or the shadowy actor Belgium - bit.ly/1LWtQQ9 &! bit.ly/1Ib2oNo - might have been a smoke mirror of the PBOC using "Euroclear", but the rabbit is out of the hat now! ] //&! bloom.bg/1JBiywV - Welcome to Quantitative Tightening as $12 Trillion Reserves Fall. The great global monetary tightening of 2015 is under way, but it’s not being led by the Federal Reserve.
QT  Quantitative  Tightening  Taper  QE  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  2015  China  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  reserve  currency  petrodollar  PBOC  centralbanks  reserves  FX  reserves  Treasury  Market  treasuries  bond  bubble  reflate  reflation  distortion  economic  history  global  trade  global  growth  global  economy  OPEC  Russia 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The "Great Accumulation" Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World's Central Banks Has Arrived | Zero Hedge
PBoC’s rapid liquidation of USTs over the past two weeks has added fuel to the fire and effectively boxed the Fed in. On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank is out extending their "quantitative tightening" (QT) analysis with a look at whats ahead now that the so-called "Great Accumulation" is over.  "Following two decades of unremitting growth, we expect global central bank reserves to at best stabilize but more likely to continue to decline in coming years," [...] Less reserve accumulation should put secular upward pressure on both global fixed income yields & USD. [If the shadow actor in Belgium doesnt buy it up @rate everyone else is selling (divesting) ] [...] The current secular shift in reserve manager behaviour represents the equivalent to Quantitative Tightening, or QT. This force is likely to be a persistent headwind towards developed market central banks’ exit from unconventional policy in coming years, representing an additional source of uncertainty in the global economy. ...
bond  bubble  treasuries  Treasury  Market  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  China  FX  reserves  centralbanks  reserves  USD  Dollar  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  petrodollar  2015  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  global  growth  faultlines  OPEC  Oil  price  Asia  emerging  PBOC  Russia  shale  gas  fracking  tarsand  Canada  USA  Taper  Fed  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  monetary  system  financial  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Saudi  Arabia  UAE  Iran  commodity  prices  Quantitative  Tightening  QT  2016  New  Normal  uncertainty  BOE  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar | Zero Hedge
What might not be as clear (on the surface anyway) is how recent events in developing economy FX markets following the devaluation of the yuan stem from a seismic shift we began discussing late last year - namely, the death of the petrodollar system which has served to underwrite decades of dollar dominance and was, until recently, a fixture of the post-war global economic order. In short, the world seems to have underestimated how structurally important collapsing crude prices are to global finance. For years, producers funnelled their dollar proceeds into USD assets providing a perpetual source of liquidity, boosting the financial strength of the reserve currency, leading to even higher asset prices and even more USD-denominated purchases, and so forth, in a virtuous loop. [...] For the first time in decades, exported petrodollar capital turned negative. [...] the world is now beginning to feel the impact of the petrodollar's quiet demise. // &! Follow-on! bit.ly/1IGh4O3
petrodollar  OPEC  centralbanks  reserves  USD  Dollar  2015  Oil  price  FX  reserves  China  Asia  emerging  market  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  PBOC  Russia  shale  gas  fracking  tarsand  Canada  USA  Taper  Fed  credit  bubble  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  monetary  system  financial  market  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Saudi  Arabia  UAE  Iran  commodity  prices  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  treasuries  Treasury  bond  bubble  faultlines  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Alibaba Is the Canary in China's Coal Mine - Bloomberg View
It turns out investors were right about Alibaba: No company is more on the front lines of China's economic shifts than Jack Ma's juggernaut. And that's just where the problems begin. [...] After months of putting the entire weight of the government behind saving the market, Beijing appears to have given up. The fallout from that realization will have unpredictable effects on 1.3 billion people indoctrinated to believe Beijing can control any crisis or narrative. As markets swoon and gross domestic product slides, consumers are delaying nonessential purchases. [...] Mass austerity has only just begun. [...] it would be interesting to see how the government responds to "large and widespread investment losses that could lead to a notable negative wealth effect which could weaken consumption, as well as grievances against the authorities." [...] Macau's GDP -26.4% last quarter [...] Chinese gamblers stayed home. [...] Ma created a better quarterly GDP report than Beijing.
Alibaba  China  Jack  Ma  2015  credit  bubble  PBOC  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  hunt  for  yield  speculation  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  margin  trading  leverage  discretionary  spending  Call  Taper  Fed  BOE  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  market  intervention  bond  bubble  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  hubris  irrational  exuberance  western  world  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  savings  glut  correlation  excess  reserves  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  investment  banking  New  Normal  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  BIS  centralbanks  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  short-term  1%  Super  Rich  Privileged  Establishment  Toff  bank  bailout 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Duncan: The Real Risk Of A Coming Multi-Decade Global Depression - YouTube
50 year long debt super cycle & credit bubble up-held. Put. // hasnt created inflation because of Globalisation = deflationary! [3bn ppl living on $2/day] Collapse of marginal cost of labour, offsetting inflation pressure of QE/NIRP/credit creation last decades. // Will eventually haunt people back once globalisation has run its way in ~100-75 years & the world is actually flat. energy cost 0, marginal cost 0, economics of abundance. // // min 23 AND because of this deflationary pressure of globalisation, excess capacity, etc lead to wage stagnation & or pressure to work 4 less (Contractor, Werkvertrag, Zeitarbeit, self-employment, Zero Hour Contract, outsourcing) and longer, in western world. Leads inevitably 2 being pushed into recession & avoiding that authorities always pushed button 4 more credit. Credit growth prevented western world not 2 be pushed into recession in last decades. 2010 Private Sector cant drive recovery! Massive Gov stimulus needed +10 years, not austerity!
debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  Greenspan-Put  Ben  Bernanke  fiat  currency  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  Abenomics  globalization  globalisation  Fed  centralbanks  BIS  economic  history  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  GFC  recovery  western  world  technological  progress  commodity  business  commoditization  economics  of  abundance  marginal  cost  Janet  Yellen  benbernanke  ECB  BOE  BOJ  monetary  policy  Zero  Hour  Contract  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Contractor  Zeitarbeit  Werkvertrag  self-employment  freelancing  freelance  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  dot.com  outsourcing  flat  world  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  student  debt  household  debt  private  debt  fiscal  policy  austerity  Richard  Koo  Mark  Blyth  Joseph  Stiglitz  Robert  Reich  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  Paul  Krugman  shared  economic  interest  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  Smart  Grid  STEM  education  policy  value  creation  added  value  Manufacturing  3D  printing  energy  price  energy  policy  competitive  competition  competitiveness  competitive  advantage  R&D  Research  Public  Partnership  world  fiscal  d 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Chinese economic winter 'cooling' world economy - BBC News
recession fear. weak countries tipped over into (back into) recession by China angst! And unresolved problems are highlighted again.
China  global  economy  2015  economic  slowdown  recession  Taper  economic  history  recovery  GFC  BIS  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  centralbanks  Developing  World  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sentiment  UK  USA  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Impediments 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Tough outlook for emerging markets - BBC News
[ this was no demand led recovery, it was a central bank debt fuelled reflated recovery (as was dot.com), especially in equity markets. but not fundamentals. unintended consequences of ZIRP/NIRP and QE. flushing world financial markets with liquidity, but not the real world. real world problems still exist. ] A series of emerging market currencies are losing value and stock markets across the developing world are in retreat. The more excitable parts of the financial sector - and indeed on financial twitter (yes, there is such a thing) - are talking of a re-run of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. [...] Emerging market currencies have lost value against the dollar and currently stand at a six-and-a-half-year low in aggregate. The Financial Times today reports that almost $1tn of capital has flowed out of emerging economies in the last 13 months. [ now money hoping for Taper re-allocate some out of emerging and developing world ]
China  2015  emerging  market  developed  world  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  recovery  Developing  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  ZIRP  hot-money  QE  NIRP  BIS  centralbanks  deflationary  deflation  economic  history  Taper  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  capital-flight  globalisation  globalization  global  trade  OPEC  energy  price  Oil  price  technological  progress 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube
// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?
BIS  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  bond  bubble  Student  Loan  debt  debt  regulation  oversight  governance  BOE  simplicity  incomplete  information  academia  academics  economist  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  economic  history  systemicrisk  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  financial  market  sustainable  sustainability  mortgage  market  UK  USA  China  speculative  speculation  contagion  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  credit  boom  financial  cycle  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  political  economy  political  theory  centralbanks  economic  damage  economic  model  Richard  Koo  animal  spirit  austerity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  robertshiller  Robert  Shiller  ideology  dogma  sovereign  debt  crisis  populism  corporate  state  manufactured  consent  Lügenpresse  BOJ  Fed  currency  war  currency  debasement  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  Japan  hunt  for  yield  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
James Rickards - The Death of Money - 04-30-15 - YouTube
distribution of risk (bell curve, wrong) & talebs black swan! / 'dismal science alone doesn't do the world and people justice.' / IMF is the central bank of the world (funded, special drawing right - SDR; out of thin air - backed by national central banks as reference (basket) but not backed by anything. printed money.) / Hungary's crisis - people borrowing in Swiss Franc ... SDR marry go round paying someone off with the help of IMF ... / IMF is transparent non-transparent. Try reading it. Need to be an expert. / AIIB able to issue bonds and got billions in capital - China/Asia Development Bank. Everybody joined because they want those contracts for their local/national companies ... except USA. Asia (China led) World Bank equivalent. - bit.ly/1Mxz1Dp &! bit.ly/1x04SZv / China wants to be in IMF & be part of basket of SDR / China may back its currency with Gold eventually once theyve got enough & leverage then its position. / US wants Yuan to be pegged to $ / m44 debt sustainability
economic  model  book  economic  history  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  academia  academics  science  sociology  psychology  discounted  risk  risk  discount  complexity  distributed  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  dogma  ideology  centralbanks  Fed  technocrat  IMF  World  Bank  Troika  bailout  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  austerity  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  currency  war  currency-war  currency  debasement  SDR  Special  Drawing  Right  AIIB  inflation  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  systemicrisk  counterpartyrisk  leverage  zombie  banks  Wall  Street  financial  repression  financial  literacy 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The world is defenceless against the next financial crisis, warns BIS - Telegraph
Monetary policymakers have run out of room to fight the next crisis with interest rates unable to go lower, the BIS warns. [...] These low interest rates have in turn fuelled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with even lower rates. [greenspan put][dot.com and GFC were in part fuelled by inadequate rate setting and oversight] [...] [BIS also rejecting the notion of secular stagnation]. // &! BIS 'low rates hold back global growth' - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/12ded5aa-1be6-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996 // &! Rising interest rates pose new risk for banks: BIS - reut.rs/1Jgyft9 [...] but a "normalization" of borrowing costs would reverse the debt-fueled inflation of asset prices and hit banks' own loss-absorbing equity capital, the BIS said. "Just as falling yields have supported asset valuation gains in recent years, an eventual normalization would generate losses ... Banks' equity capital would shrink."
BIS  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  Financial  Crisis  business  cycle  economic  cycle  economic  history  centralbanks  Fed  Taper  ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  BOE  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  zombie  banks  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  bailout  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  fractional  reserve  banking  dot.com  GFC  recovery  Greenspan-Put  alangreenspan  Great  Moderation  Ben  Bernanke  Fed  mandate  Bank  Oversight  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  zombie  consumer  structural  imbalance  Impediments  output  gap  productivity  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  secular  stagnation  asset  allocation  distortion  capital  allocation  asset  bubble  job  creation  labour  market  labour  economics  Niedriglohnsektor  Niedriglohn  Service  Sector  Jobs  lost  generation  lost  decade  policy  folly  policy  error  demographic  bubble  sovereign  debt  debt  bubble  consumer  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  growth  economic  damage  structural  unemployment  underemployed  supply  side  economics  microeconomic  policy  vocational  education  education  policy  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  Silicon  Valley  industrial  policy  ideology  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Bargeld: Peter Bofinger will Münzen und Scheine abschaffen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/bargeld-abschaffen-eine-schraege-debatte-muenchau-kolumne-a-1034256.html // Geld hat exakt drei Funktionen - juristisch wie ökonomisch. Es ist Zahlungsmittel, Zahlungseinheit und ein Mittel zur Wertaufbewahrung. Bei den ersten zwei Funktionen gibt es keinen Unterschied zwischen Bargeld und E-Geld, zumindest keinen prinzipiellen. Ob Sie mit E-Karte bezahlen oder mit Euroscheinen: Ihr Zahlungsmittel ist akzeptiert und die Einheit ist immer der Euro. Wer also von geprägter Freiheit spricht, kann logischerweise nur die dritte Funktion des Geldes meinen, die Wertaufbewahrung. [...] Scheine sind kein Geld, nur ein Versprechen [trust & confidence] // would allow to tax bank and asset accounts in a deposit haircut move like in Cyprus, would be easier to monitor ie spending (anonymized and aggregated) and cash outflows/capital flight &! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32778196
fiscal  policy  cash  Bargeld  society  economic  history  deposit  haircut  fiat  currency  fiat  money  trustagent  trust  confidence  currency  debasement  Debt  Super  Cycle  monetisation  monetization  ECB  centralbanks  cyber  war  cyber  crime  cyber  security  IT 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
The Ashcroft Interviews: Money, Blood & Revolution - YouTube
George Cooper - broken economics << is in crisis. is not offering useful guidance for policy makers because of so much conflicting views that are taken at time and voiced at times very violently. "economics is akin to astrology." ... QE will create bigger future recession. &! neoclassical = trickle-down/trickle-through &! economics teaches you a wrong view / looking glass &! neoclassical view - getting richer and richer. is that really true? &! maintaining status quo &! self-interest &! Marx says capitalism is polarising
book  economics  economist  GFC  academia  academics  centralbanks  equilibrium  disequilibrium  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  debt  overhang  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  inequality  social  cohesion  trickle-down  economics  liquidity  trap  Philosophy  LTRO  TLTRO  education  policy  social  mobility  income  mobility  fairness  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  downward  mobility  social  safety  net  austerity  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  Super  Rich  1%  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism 
march 2015 by asterisk2a
Anleihekäufe führen nicht zu Inflation: Kolumne von Wolfgang Münchau - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Wenn Sie sich jetzt die Anleihenkäufe der englischen oder der japanischen Zentralbank anschauen, dann ist genau das passiert, was ich gerade beschrieben habe. In beiden Fällen wurde die Geldbasis massiv erhöht. Die Geldmenge bewegte sich nicht. Warum kaufen Zentralbanken die Wertpapiere dann überhaupt? Sie hoffen auf indirekte Effekte, die am Ende einer langen Kette vielleicht doch auf die Geldmenge wirken. [...] Nur leider hat das in Japan zwei Jahrzehnte lang nicht funktioniert. Und bei uns bislang auch nicht. Dafür gibt es verschiedene Gründe: [...] [... overarching trend; a flattening of the curves (of disparity) across the world concerning economic ?pillars?: work type (more advanced work in the supplychain in china & not just labour intensive stuff only. more & more added value done in BRIC, East Europe, ...) #labourmarket, #consumption, #demographics, #edu, savings, social safety net, western style democracy et al) ... fall of Iron Curtain was beginning of process Angleichung]
liquidity  trap  Japan  BOJ  Fed  BOE  ECB  quantitative-easing  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  TARP  POMO  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  sovereign  debt  crisis  Richard  Koo  lost  decade  economic  history  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  business  investment  trust  trustagent  fiscal  policy  austerity  IMF  BIS  centralbanks  confidence  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  haircut  monetary  policy  monetary  system  fiat  currency  deflation  deflationary  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  faultlines  infrastructure  investment  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  competitive  competitiveness  China  BRIC  Frontier  Markets  Developing  global  trade  macroeconomics  microeconomics  labour  market  labour  economics  21stcentury  Software  Is  Eating  The  algorithm  Robotics  automation  Niedriglohnsektor  lohndumping  Lohnzurückhaltung  disposable  income  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
Andreessen: High burn rates risk more than just running out of cash | PandoDaily
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable  a16z  Marc  Andreessen  Ben  Horowitz  SF  war  for  talent  labour  economics  labour  market 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Winter Is (Probably) Coming (Soon) | TechCrunch
"The more you boost your burn, the more risk you take on. [...] The underlying point of Gurley’s and Wilson’s respective riffs is that many companies will have to reduce their burn in the future. And it won’t be easy. And the pair likely won’t be willing to give larger sums to companies that just torched their prior round in ways that they didn’t precisely approve of. Cash is the oxygen of business. When it runs out, the company dies." ... being nimble, frugal, Lean, conservative ... via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8338411
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Burn Baby Burn – AVC
From one of the comments: "f you're backing companies that have bootstrapped their start, you get a different, focussed culture & attitude on burn rates and costs. It forces you to think twice about every cost item. You're running as fast as you can to get traction, customers, product, team, everything aligned within tight costs. It's not about frugality but more aligned to reality. " +++ via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8324047 +++ !!! Fancy Offices - bit.ly/1piSnxO +++ !!! +++ "Gurley and Wilson point to sky high burn rates, not valuations as the red flag in Silicon Valley [...] Gurley and Wilson are lamenting the exorbitant burn rates that have become the norm among venture-backed startups and the lack of fear and accountability signaled by this hyper-aggressive approach." - bit.ly/1m93G0M +++ !!! +++ bit.ly/YQY2WS +++ !!! +++ "Which VCs Have the Most Portfolio Companies with $100M+ of Funding?" - bit.ly/1wo7BHF
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Venture Capitalist Sounds Alarm on Silicon Valley Risk - WSJ
"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." And then you wrote: "Although we may have not reached the level of observing obvious greediness, there is most certainly an absence of fear. Those that managed companies in 2008, or 13 years ago in 2001, know exactly how fear feels. And this is not it." [...] Right now youve got private companies raising $200, $400, $500 million. If youre in a competitive ecosystem & you raise that amount of money, the only way you use it—because these companies are all human-based, theyre not like building stores—is to take your burn up. [2 things: exorbitant high burn rates like '99 & the allure of working for $ loosing companies. &the justification is 'it's Landgrab time,it's still day 1'] &living cost, employee cost &perk &rent cost in SV/SF &surroundings isnt helping either. rising cost is fuelling burn rates &valuations w/ big ABC-Rounds. Didnt we have the glorification of Lean ~3 years ago? A bubble is one WHEN IT POPS!
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Wirtschaftskrise: Deutsche Wirtschaft mit starkem Export ist anfällig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Typischerweise produzieren dominante ökonomische Narrative zuerst Illusionen und dann große Probleme. Wo eine Geschichte von Marktteilnehmern, Regulierern und Beobachtern vorbehaltlos akzeptiert wird, ist der Boden bereitet für Irrtümer, die uns am Ende Kopf und Kragen kosten können, wie ich meinem neuen Buch argumentiere. >> Die Politik des billigen Geldes verzerrt die Wirtschaftsstrukturen .... - die deutsche Wirtschaft unterfinanziert & Dass die Politik des ultrabilligen Geldes die Wirtschaftsstrukturen verzerrt, auch hierzulande. [CreditCrunch/transmission mechanism broken/hunt for yield/betongold/no-investments] +++ die Digitalisierung auch die produktionslastige deutsche Wirtschaft fundamental durcheinanderwirbeln wird. [Year of Code/Education Policy/Human Capital - high ed imigrants/Mobile Creatives/Share Economy] +++ Spiegel 37/2014 "Deutschland der Scheinriese" Cover Story
GFC  bubble  property  bubble  bubbles  economic  history  economics  society  storytelling  narrative  journalism  journalismus  PIGS  UK  USA  Germany  Exportweltmeister  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  exports  export  Europe  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  competitiveness  competitive  competitive  advantage  comparative  advantage  2014  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Policy  Makers  error  folly  trust  trustagent  confidence  accountability  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  monetary  fiscal  LTRO  OMT  ABS  unconventional  monetary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  distortion  Wall  Street  centralbanks  IMF  IBS  liquidity  trap  creditcrunch  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  blackswan  Black  Swan  Betongold  Beton  Gold  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  Year  of  Code  education  Public  Policy  hunt  for  yield  human  capital  immigration  demographics  demographic  bubble  demography 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
8 Reasons Why A New Global Financial Crisis Could Be On The Way - NASDAQ.com
Like any other bubble, it will only become one once it bursts. What is different in 2014 is that now central banks have a great tool to prevent real estate bubbles: Basel III and its countercyclical capital buffer. [...] Let us not forget the lessons of the Great War (we are now commemorating the 100-year anniversary): the butterfly effect can be deadly in politics. +++ http://ti.me/1r4NfEy "Raghuram Rajan, the governor of India's central bank, fears supereasy money from the world’s central banks is inflating assets and encouraging bad investments. [...] Long-term low interest rates and unorthodox programs to stimulate economies — like quantitative easing, or QE — could be laying the groundwork for more turmoil in financial markets, he argues. [...] With inflation not being strong, this can continue for some time until things are so stretched that any signs of inflation, and a rise in interest rates, could precipitate a fairly strong market reaction. Certainly [...] volatility hurts[.]
equity  bubble  asset  bubble  shadow  banking  China  Basel3  Basel  III  centralbanks  BIS  bubbles  bubble  butterfly  effect  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  QE  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  Raghuram  Rajan  zombie  banks  NPL  PIGS  geopolitics  Middle  East  ISIS  Islamic  State  Ukrain  Ukraine  radicalism  Putin  vladimirputin  Russia  Europe  USA  foreign  affairs  diplomacy  NATO  IMF  austerity  secular  stagnation  stagnation  deflation  deflationary  uncertainty  Wall  Street  volatility  Taper  distortion  trust  trustagent  confidence  BRIC  India  MINT  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  emerging  market  flat  globalisation  globalization 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Der Crash ist die Lösung | SWR1 Leute - YouTube
banks still TBTF, Systemrelevant. << enabled by Own Lobby influencing Career Politicians. haftungsgarantien von ECB are no more capitalism. +++ &&& +++ If even Germany - Wirtchaftslokomotive - export meister - does still have a budget deficit, while being that country that produces more than it consumes, who else if not Germany? But still doesn't. +++ "Die Zeit der Rendite ist vorbei." +++ Schulden zu haben, man ist nicht frei. Frueher hat man das sich gekauft was man sich leisten konnte, ohne kreditkarte, ohne dispo, ohne bankkredit. +++ NEW crash will come of even bigger proportion and even more rubble to clear up afterwards than 2008/9 - GFC. +++ Always buy in tranches, dispersed over time. +++ fractional reserve banking leads to this UBER crash as we live on a planet with finite resources. Current GDP fetish needs to stop. Change of mind, thinking, course. << this is the same with Mobile Creative, future workforce, Software eats the world, UK's productivity gap.
book  GFC  Debt  Super  Cycle  jubilee  sovereign  crisis  liquidity  trap  investigative  journalism  journalismus  monetization  private  consumer  bubble  monetisation  public  household  balance  sheet  recession  PIGS  Europe  lostdecade  lost  decade  lost  generation  greatrecession  greatdepression  toobigtofail  TBTF  OTC  derivatives  systemrelevant  Systemrelevanz  toobigtojail  Career  Politicians  accountability  transparency  Politics  Democratic  Process  democracy  short-term  thinking  long-term  thinking  financial  industry  LIBOR  rigging  scandal  trust  trustagent  confidence  corporatism  crony  capitalism  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  revolving  door  IMF  IWF  centralbanks  economic  history  capitalism  Thomas  Piketty  ECB  EZB  OMT  faultlines  budget  deficit  structural  deficit  Impediments  structural  imbalance  history  financial  repression  New  Normal  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Beton  Gold  property  bubble  fragile  world  fagile  financial  system  external  shock  balckswan  monetary  stimulus  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  growth  round  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  Island  Agentina  Japan  UK  fractional  reserve  banking  GDP  economic  model  fiat  currency  fiat  money  USA  academia  acade 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
▶ Breakingviews: Austrian Banks - Europe's next problem child? - YouTube
min 2:20 ... Central Banks trying to prep markets that QE and ZIRP has to end; forward guidance.
QE  monetary  policy  2013  communication  Fed  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  theory  forward  guidance  ZIRP  Taper  BOE  ECB  centralbanks 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Five Years After Lehman, BIS Ex-Chief Economist Warns "It's Worse This Time" | Zero Hedge
The share of "leveraged loans" or extreme forms of credit risk, used by the poorest corporate borrowers, has soared to an all-time high of 45% - 10 percentage points higher than at the peak of the crisis in 2007. + http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-14/record-high-grade-leverage-means-pik-toggle-lbo-debt-back-and-worse-ever // The Bank Of International Settlements Warns The Monetary Kool-Aid Party Is Over www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-23/bank-international-settlements-warns-monetary-kool-aid-party-over ""central banks must head for the exit and stop trying to spur a global economic recovery... cheap and plentiful central bank money had merely bought time, warning that more bond buying would retard the global economy’s return to health by delaying adjustments to governments’ and households’ balance sheets." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10310598/BIS-veteran-says-global-credit-excess-worse-than-pre-Lehman.html
unemployment  employment  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  ope  reflation  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  carmenreinhart  BOJ  LBO  balancesheet  policy  folly  QE  liquidity  2013  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  political  error  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  centralbanks  liberal  economic  reform  faultlines  GFC  monetary  theory  exuberance  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  global  economy  monetary  stimulus  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  liquidity-trap  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  benbernanke  bank  crisis  Abenomics  rebalancing  China  greatrecession  policy  error  productivity  LTRO  NIRP  OMT  Fed  communication  economic  history  Super  Cycle  stagflation  leverage  KennethRogoff  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  BIS  POMO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance  fiscal  deficit 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
The Federal Reserve in a Time for Doves by Kenneth Rogoff - Project Syndicate
The importance of technical competence in monetary policy has been proved repeatedly by central banks around the world. [...] the quality of monetary policy depends critically on whether central bankers have a clear and nuanced understanding of policy making and inflation. The 1920’s, 1930’s, and 1970’s are replete with examples of central bankers who did not understand the basics, and whose economies paid the price. What this means is not just competence in setting interest rates, but also competence in regulatory policy. [...] For the past 25 years, the mantra of “inflation targeting” (introduced in my 1985 paper) has served as a mechanism for containing inflation expectations by reassuring the public of the central bank’s intentions. But excessive emphasis on low inflation targets can be counterproductive in the aftermath of the worst financial crisis in 75 years. Rather than worrying about inflation, central bankers should focus on reflating the economy.
Donald  Kohn  Larry  Summers  unemployment  2013  monetary  policy  2014  Fed  financial  repression  inflation  targeting  Debt  Super  Cycle  monetary  theory  reflation  sovereign  crisis  New  Normal  Janet  Yellen  deflation  nominal  GDP  targeting  monetary  system  long-term  unemployment  benbernanke  deflationary  inflation  centralbanks 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Zinstief kostet deutsche Sparer laut neuer Postbank-Studie Milliarden - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die extrem niedrigen Zinsen in Europa kosten deutsche Sparer offenbar Milliarden: Nach Berechnungen der Postbank verlieren die Sparvermögen bei Banken in Deutschland allein in diesem Jahr real rund 14 Milliarden Euro an Wert, wie die "Bild"-Zeitung unter Berufung auf die Studie berichtet.
monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  New  Normal  monetary  transmission  mechanism  babyboomers  liquidity-trap  BOE  banking  crisis  ECB  BOJ  monetary  system  bank  crisis  lostdecade  debtoverhang  NIRP  2013  Fed  lostgeneration  financial  repression  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  centralbanks  balance  sheet  recession 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Mark Carney wastes no time in stamping his authority - Telegraph
Osborne fiscal plan of austerity till 2015/16 Rates don't go up beyond 2015 If market rates go up and make it more expensive for gov to borrow during tough times - will do QE - artificially lower the price again. >>> "Carney’s “not warranted” comment was tantamount to saying he expects rates to remain at 0.5pc until at least 2015. The vogue for “communication” is catching. In Australia, the central bank governor, Glenn Stevens, demonstrated how not to do it, after a “joke” backfired earlier this week, crashing the currency until his deputy calmed things down. [...] At the European Central Bank, president Mario Draghi was more successful. In a break with protocol, he said rates would be at current or lower levels “for an extended period of time”, delighting stock markets on the continent as they interpreted it to mean 2016 at the earliest."
currency  debasement  unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  MarioDraghi  output-gap  foreignexchange  BOE  ECB  benbernanke  greatrecession  QE  NIRP  2013  Fed  communication  PIGS  UK  debt  monetisation  sovereign  debt  crisis  youth  unemployment  forward  guidance  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  ZIRP  participation  rate  Taper  PIIGS  greatdepression  deleveraging  RBA  GeorgeOsborne  debt  monetization  centralbanks  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Article: Aussie Dollar Suffers Growing Pains | ForexLive
This article makes the point that the AUD is about to included separately in IMF data as a ‘reserve currency’ That liquidity is much improved That the National Australia Bank reckons the data could show that as much as 2% of the near $11 trillion of total global reserves, or the equivalent of $200-250 billion, is being held in AUD >> "continued demand from central banks could make it harder for the RBA to drive the currency lower. But the upside is that, as central banks tend to keep their reserves for years, the Aussie is unlikely to face a selloff at the first sign of trouble, as is often the case when foreign investors dominate a market. In other words, fears of capital flight from the Aussie are overdone and the Australian currency is showing signs of growing up." >> http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/06/18/aussie-dollar-suffers-growing-pains/?mod=WSJBlog&utm_source=feedly
Australian  Dollar  reserve  currency  Australia  RBA  AUD  centralbanks  IMF 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Mark Carney benefited more from Canada than Canada benefited from him - a scathing farewell | ForexLive
>> Central Bankers and Policy makers were on the back foot very much. [...] "Carney hit the panic button like every other central banker after Lehman collapsed. Even then, he didn’t hit it hard enough until December when the global economy was on its knees. Rates didn’t bottom until late April 2009 — more than a month after Bernanke proclaimed ‘green shoots’ in the US economy."
lehmanbrothers  monetary  policy  Fed  GFC  Mark  Carney  economic  history  benbernake  UK  BOE  greatdepression  Canada  MervynKing  BOC  centralbanks  greatrecession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Deutsche-Bank-Chef Fitschen fordert Ende der Niedrigzinsen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
"Es ist in der Tat sehr wichtig, den richtigen Weg zur Umkehr zu finden, um nicht sofort den nächsten Kollaps zu provozieren." Der Grat sei sehr schmal. "Alle aber sind sich einig: Die Zinsen können dauerhaft nicht so bleiben, weil sonst die nächsten Verwerfungen die Folge sind", sagte Fitschen.
QE  NIRP  monetary  policy  disequilibrium  bubbles  unintended  consequences  debt  monetisation  equilibrium  ZIRP  bubble  banking  crisis  artificial  demand  toobigtofail  bank  crisis  speculative  bubbles  centralbanks  debt  monetization  Free  Lunch 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Junk's heyday is here and now - YouTube
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-09/deutsche-bank-we-fully-understand-why-authorities-wouldnt-want-free-markets-operate- "We would stress that we fully understand why the authorities wouldn't want free markets to operate today as the risk of a huge global default and unemployment cycle would still be very high. However their intervention has a cost in our opinion. Socially this might be worth paying but we do think it exists."
bankruptcy  cycle  unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  zombie  banks  fixed  income  miltonfriedman  BOJ  artificial  demand  Insolvenzverschleppung  QE  lostgeneration  demand  and  supply  property  bubble  hayek  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  bubble  default  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  debt  monetization  centralbanks  insolvency  cycle  Free  Lunch  IMF  default  cycle  GFC  refinancing  corporate  debt  haircut  unintended  consequences  high  yield  debt  Student  Loan  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  default  rate  credit  bubble  greatrecession  lostdecade  NIRP  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  monetarism  sovereign  debt  crisis  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  default  scenario  ZIRP  Junk  Bonds 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Japanese Government Bonds Halted Limit Down; Yields Spike To 10 Week High; Worst Day In 5 Years | Zero Hedge
It appears things are getting a little out of control around the world. .... [...] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-10/overnight-yen-tumble-sends-asia-scrambling-retaliate >> " Sure enough, midway through the evening session, Sri Lanka cut its reverse repo and repurchase rate to 9% and 7% respectively, promptly followed by Vietnam cutting its own refinancing rate from 8% to 7%, then moving to Thailand where the finance chief Kittiratt called for a rate cut exceeding 25 bps, and more jawboning from South Korea suggesting even more rate cuts from the export-driven country are set to come as it loses trade competitiveness to Japan. Asian financial crisis 2.0 any minute now? "
currency  debasement  QE  JGB  monetary  policy  currency  war  Politics  lostgeneration  economic  history  inflation  targeting  reflation  devaluation  Yen  ZIRP  BOJ  competitiveness  inflation  Asia  centralbanks  Japan  lostdecade 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Carmen Reinhart: "No Doubt. Our Pensions Are Screwed." | Zero Hedge
Only when inflation picks up, which is ultimately going to happen, will it become obvious that central banks have become subservient to governments." [...] Nations "seldom just grow themselves out of debt," as so many believe is possible, "you need a combination of austerity, so that you don't add further to the pile of debt, and higher inflation, which is effectively a subtle form of taxation," with the consequence that people are going to lose their savings. Reinhart succinctly summarizes, "no doubt, our pensions are screwed." [...] http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/interview-with-harvard-economist-carmen-reinhart-on-financial-repression-a-893213.html / http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/how-central-banks-are-threatening-the-savings-of-normal-germans-a-860021.html
monetization  unemployment  monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  modern  monetary  theory  transferring-wealth  reflation  academia  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  carmenreinhart  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  deposit  levy  creditcrisis  QE  2013  moralhazard  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  creditcrunch  bail-in  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  inflation  centralbanks  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  debt  jubilee  haircut  unintended  consequences  Troika  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  debt  restructuring  bank  crisis  Abenomics  greatrecession  debtoverhang  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  bailout 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Mr Soros Trumps Mrs Watanabe | Zero Hedge
>> the world is selling their Yen holdings and or bet against the Yen. >> the last few months have seen not Mrs Watanabe (euphemistically selling her JPY to find better returns elsewhere) but the likes of Mr. Soros and Mr. Bass who see the endgame disorderly collapse of a currency (or perhaps it is the rest of the G7 central bankers unwinding JPY-based reserves to 'help' their fellow central planner out). The bulk of JPY selling pressure has come during non-Tokyo trading hours, as the Japanese, until last week at least, appear much more timid about Abenomics' chances of success. + >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-08/yen-surges-japans-deputy-pm-says-excessive-yen-gain-corrected
currency  debasement  QE  JGB  currency  war  G7  debt  monetisation  G8  Yen  ZIRP  BOJ  currency-war  G20  Abenomics  centralbanks  debt  monetization 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Sprott: Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left? Part II | Zero Hedge
We are currently in an environment where policy makers are intent on devaluing their currencies in an effort to create growth. Real rates continue to stay negative in most of the developed world. Every marginal dollar of debt that is created is producing lower and lower amounts of growth. In a world overwhelmed by mountains of debt and economic growth which is sub-par at best, precious metals and real assets can act as insurance against the stupidity of policy makers.
currency  debasement  QE  monetary  policy  2013  Fed  fiat  currency  economic  history  modern  monetary  theory  ZIRP  BOE  greatdepression  ECB  BOJ  monetary  system  currency-war  centralbanks  greatrecession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Dylan Grice Explains How "Crackpot" Central Bankers Are Destroying Society | Zero Hedge
Distrust is a brake on prosperity, because distrust is a brake on exchange. [...] So when central banks play the games with money of which they are so fond, we wonder if they realize that they are also playing games with social bonding. Do they realize that by devaluing money they are devaluing society? [...] Fed has monetized 50% of US Debt since 2009. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-11/foodstamp-recipients-hit-record-alongside-record-dow-jones-and-record-debt-20-eligib - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-11/presenting-currence-crises-devaluations-and-regime-changes-collapse-gold-standard
currency  debasement  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  academia  BOE  ECB  BOJ  currency-war  greatrecession  lostdecade  QE  Fed  society  lostgeneration  trust  economic  history  philosophy  confidence  trustagent  ZIRP  greatdepression  economics  centralbanks 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Münchau: Warum Draghis Programme keine Inflation bringen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Milton Friedmans Monetarismus ist nicht gescheitert, weil er falsch war, sondern weil sich die Welt geändert hat.

[...]

Um Inflation wirklich zu verstehen, bedarf es des Verständnisses einer komplexen Dynamik, die eine ganze Reihe von Faktoren mit einschließt - unter anderem die gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage, die Entwicklung an Rohstoffmärkten, Arbeitslosigkeit, die Lücke zwischen Auslastung der Industrie und ihrer Kapazität sowie die Entwicklung von Krediten und anderen Finanzindikatoren. Fast alle diese Indikatoren deuten auf eine deflationäre Entwicklung hin.

[...]

Die Aufgabe der Notenbank wird es dann nicht mehr sein, Inflation zu bekämpfen, sondern für ein Mindestmaß an Inflation zu sorgen. Noch besser wäre es, wenn die Notenbanken nicht mehr ein isoliertes Inflationsziel setzen, sondern ein nominales Wachstumsziel verfolgen.
2012  richardkoo  miltonfriedman  PIIGS  nominal  GDP  targeting  OpertationTwist  BOJ  BOE  Fed  balance  sheet  recession  economic  history  lostdecade  greatrecession  GFC  deflation  deleveraging  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Japan  centralbanks  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetarism  System  LTRO  SMP  ECB  QE  ZIRP  inflation  reflation 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
"Did Somebody Repeal The Laws Of Mathematics?" | ZeroHedge
Back then (2010), the general opinion was that if the contagion spread to Spain the game was over because there wasn’t enough money with which to bail out an economy the size of The Kingdom of Spain. I’m not sure exactly what happened— maybe I wasn’t paying attention—but suddenly, almost two years on and in an environment where even the rich nations of Europe are seeing an undeniable slide towards recession, there is no talk about Spain being ‘too-big-to-bail’ anymore.

-

Looking at it all :: the market (Spanish gov showed them some slides ...) assumes that Spain will get out of recession by 2013 with pa growth of 1.6% as internal demand will rise again.

*make one speechless*
Germany  bipolar  disorder  Stockholm  Syndrome  ESM  SMP  EFSF  Italy  toobigtofail  policy  folly  policy  error  contagion  2010  austerity  greatrecession  2012  PIIGS  Spain  MarioDraghi  ECB  centralbanks  unintended  consequences  politics  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Europe's Largest Insurer Allianz Not Amused That Central Banks Are Involved In Liborgate | ZeroHedge
"Europe's biggest insurer, Allianz, is worried about the role central banks may have played in an interest rate rigging scandal that has enveloped some leading international lenders, the insurer's chief financial officer said on Friday. "We do not find it funny, what has happened, in particular the arising implication that it is not just the banks but central banks being involved in this," Oliver Baete told a conference call with analysts. "That really gives us cause for concern," Baete added." Of course, neither the ECB nor the FED could care much, considering that Allianz would be immediately insolvent if the same central banks who manipulated Libor stopped manipulating interest rates... which is implicitly what Allianz is unhappy about.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/03/allianz-libor-idUSL6E8J3P9720120803
policy  folly  policy  error  unintended  consequences  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  lostdecade  greatrecession  GFC  reflation  sovereign  debt  crisis  bond  bubble  ponzischeme  PIMCO  MarioDraghi  PaulTucker  collusion  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  MervynKing  timgeithner  Fed  BBA  BOE  NYFed  ECB  centralbanks  Stockholm  Syndrome  LIBOR  rigging  scandal 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Jeremy Grantham: "I, For One, Wish That The World Would Get On With Whatever Is Coming Next" | ZeroHedge
“Decline will be and is subliminal.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-18436829

Modern economic history in the making!

---

“Groundhog Day”

The economic environment seems to be stuck in a rather unpleasant perpetual loop. Greece is always about to default; the latest bailout is always about to save the day and yet never seems to; China is always about to collapse but instead teases us by inching down; and I swear the Financial Times is beginning to recycle its reports! In the U.S., the fiscal cliff looms along with debt limits and the usual election uncertainties. The dysfunctional U.S. Congress continues for the time being in its intractable ways. The stock market rises and falls and rises and falls again. It is getting difficult to find anything new to say at client meetings. I, for one, wish that the world would get on with whatever is coming next.
debtoverhang  deleveraging  lostgeneration  lostdecade  Japan  global-economy  global  imbalances  society  currency-war  currency  debasement  centralbanks  Europe  USA  UK  policy  folly  policy  error  politics  reflation  sovereign  debt  crisis  greatrecession  GFC  decline 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
PIMCO | Investment Outlook - Cult Figures
​- The long-term history of inflation adjusted returns from stocks shows a persistent but recently fading 6.6% real return since 1912.
- The legitimate question that market analysts, government forecasters and pension consultants should answer is how that return can be duplicated in the future.
- Unfair though it may be, an investor should continue to expect an attempted inflationary solution in almost all developed economies over the next few years and even decades.

[[For FX traders, a burgeoning era of inflation will ensure that high levels of volatility continue. Central bankers will repeatedly be tested and money will skip around the globe.]]

= Countries that take the brunt right now are Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Singapore, Brazil, Switzerland etc. countries where there is wealth and trust in institutions and or got natural resources (commodities, growing consumer), or is a creditor nation.
accounting  global-economy  global  imbalances  developed  world  frontiermarkets  emergingmarkets  BRIC  Switzerland  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  unintended  consequences  EMU  UK  BOE  ECB  Fed  centralbanks  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  economic-thought  deleveraging  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  confidence  trustagent  trust  politics  pension  pension  scheme  pension  obligation  pension  fund  financial  repression  economic  history  Europe  USA  lostdecade  greatrecession  GFC  PIMCO  new-normal  inflation  reflation 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Scandal At The IMF: Senior Economist Resigns, Says "Ashamed To Have Had Any Association With Fund At All" | ZeroHedge
the following scathing letter which tears down every myth about the IMF: from its impartiality, to the selection process of its head, to its effectiveness. The letter also contains the following gem: "After twenty years of service, I am ashamed to have had any association with the Fund at all." Pretty much says it all. This is a scandal in the making, and one which may shake to the core the credibility of the IMF in the context of international organization.

***

IS the IMF a institution to ensure the status quo?
politicalscience  political  theory  politics  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  centralbanks  BIS  Worldbank  academia  economic-thought  economic  model  economic  history  greatrecession  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  status  quo  IWF  austerity  PIIGS  troika  trustagent  trust  accountability  transparency  credibility  IMF 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
UBS Issues Hyperinflation Warning For US And UK, Calls It Purely "A Fiscal Phenomenon"
Hyperinflation: Paper money only has a value because of the confidence that the money can be exchanged for a certain quantity of goods or services in the future. If this confidence is eroded, hyperinflation becomes a threat.

We think that a creditor nation is less at risk of hyperinflation than a debtor nation, as a debtor nation relies not only on the confidence of domestic creditors, but also of foreign creditors. We therefore think that the hyperinflation risk to global investors is largest in the US and the UK. The more the fiscal situation deteriorates and the more central banks debase their currencies, the higher the risk of a loss of confidence in the future purchasing power of money.

Hyperinflation is a fiscal phenomenon. Period. BUT cases of hyperinflation have been preceded by the central bank monetizing a significant proportion of the government deficit.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/pick-your-debt-poison
policy  folly  policy  error  Fed  NIRP  deflation  austerity  fiatmoney  fiat  currency  Gold  politics  trustagent  trust  confidence  monetary  theory  centralbanks  BIS  shadowbanking  economics  economic  history  bond  bubble  GFC  ZIRP  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  BOE  debtoverhang  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  inflation  hyperinflation  USA  UK 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Libor scandal: Bob Diamond resigns as Barclays chief executive | Mail Online
Memo from Barclays implies Bank of England knew about Libor-rigging scam

'Bob Diamond did not believe he received an instruction (to fix rates) from Paul Tucker or that he gave an instruction to Jerry del Missier.
'However, Jerry del Missier concluded that an instruction had been passed down from the Bank of England not to keep Libors so high and he therefore passed down a direction to that effect to the submitters.'
The FSA investigated Jerry del Missier but closed the investigation without taking any enforcement action, Barclays added.

***
My Take::
During the hight of the financial crisis 2008; everything seemed to be on the table to stabilise the markets and safe the banks and rebuild confidence.

***

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18688417 (3 July 2012)

Behold, the British establishment, panicked
The chairman resigns to save the CEO. The CEO makes a public threat to drag the central bank into the mire. And the previous government. And the Treasury.
misconduct  negligence  capitalism  corporate  governance  Barcap  2012  2008  lehmanbrothers  AlistairDarling  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  UK  politics  CFTC  SEC  NYFed  Fed  centralbanks  culture  BIS  trustagent  trust  confidence  collusion  creditcrunch  greatrecession  GFC  BBA  FSA  PaulTucker  BOE  barclays  EURIBOR  LIBOR 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Is The Bank Of England About To Be Dragged Into Lie-borgate, And Which US Bank Is Next | ZeroHedge
was it in the nations interest to look over LIBOR manupulation?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18665080

*
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/01/this-makes-no-sense-libor-by-bank.html

January 22, 2009 when the market was crashing every single day, when the world's central banks would do anything to halt the collapse in risk and asset prices, up to an including telling their host banks to lie about funding conditions, before the real QE1 was announced back in the middle of March, in which we made just this speculation.

*

Three and a half years later the puzzle is no more: it was all one big epic fraud, pardon, no fraud, as the CFTC and SEC settlements never admitted or denied fraud. Let's just call it benign market manipulation of a [$350-$500] trillion market.

... many have been warning for years, the biggest market manipulation fraud in history.

*

Lack of integrity left and right ...
trustagent  trust  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  banking  accountability  transparency  moralhazard  NYFed  benbernake  henrypaulson  governance  Fed  market-mechanism  market-failure  fraud  manipulation  collusion  centralbanks  BIS  GFC  Barclays  CFTC  SEC  FSA  BBA  PaulTucker  BOE  EURIBOR  LIBOR 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Is The Swiss National Bank Faking It? | ZeroHedge
if one needs to know the true state of events in Europe, the only real remaining, unmanipulated benchmark remain Swiss nominal bond yields. And at -23.5 bps for the 2 Year it is telling us that nothing is fixed. As usual.

***

The SNB sterilised one half of its FX intervention in May.

"This is highly significant and undermines the credibility of the SNB’s claim that it is willing to do whatever it takes to hold EUR/CHF 1.20. For the floor to be credible the SNB needs to surrender control over the Swiss monetary based, i.e. it has to be willing to deliver both unlimited and unsterilised FX intervention. The intervention in May was certainly unlimited; it most definitely was not unsterilised."

SNB's FX policy is "at odds with the needs of an economy which is growing at 2% p.a, which has no output gap and in which the housing market is overheating and credit growth is becoming problematic."
monetary  theory  monetary  policy  System  inflation  property  bubble  credit  bubble  bubble  BIS  centralbanks  currency-war  capital-flight  capital-controls  foreignexchange  CHF  Switzerland  SNB  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  EMU  Europe 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
An A-Z of business quotations: Banks and bankers | The Economist
IT HAS been a rotten week for Britain’s banks. First a computer glitch at the Royal Bank of Scotland meant that its customers’ money temporarily disappeared. Then Barclays was revealed to have manipulated an inter-bank lending rate, leading to Bob Diamond, its boss, clinging desperately on to his job. Fitting, therefore, that for the second post in our A-Z of business quotations, we have reached B for Banks & Bankers. Bankers have clearly copped a lot of flak in recent years. But then, as the quotes below demonstrate, it was ever thus.

“I am just a banker ‘doing God’s work’.”
Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs (1954–), quoted in the Wall Street Journal, May 2010

et al
BIS  centralbanks  history  banking  crisis  confidence  transparency  trust  trustagent  greatrecession  GFC  bank  crisis  banks  banking 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
BIS Official Warns of Central-Bank Overreach - WSJ.com
BIS warns of unintended consequences of more unorthodox easing measures as politicians agree to not agree bc of their principles. Not able to acknowledge that they/we sit all in the same boat.

***

The unconventional measures introduced by many central banks in response to financial turmoil could create other problems if carried out for too long, the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements said Sunday.

“A worry is that monetary policy would be pressured to do still more because not enough action has been taken in other areas… “Fiscal adjustment, the repair of banks’ balance sheets and other reforms cannot be put off in the hope of better times,” Mr. Caruana said. “Relying only on central bankers but failing to act on other fronts would ultimately damage confidence and increase the risks to macroeconomic and financial stability.”

"These emergency measures could have undesirable side effects if continued for too long,"
centralbanks  India  Brazil  BRIC  australia  Canada  BoC  bubbles  PBoC  China  UK  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  USA  sovereign  debt  crisis  quantitative-easing  QE  operationtwist  ZIRP  unintended  consequences  BoJ  ECB  BoE  Fed  policy-makers  policy  folly  policy  error  politics  trust  trustagent  monetary  theory  System  monetary  policy  BIS 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Breakingviews: UK banks' euro zone firewall needs boost - YouTube
BOE has no LTRO, but short term LTRO like schemes.
Wants not to support banks long-term
centralbanks  monetary  policy  BOE  UK 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
BBC iPlayer - Analysis: What Is Money?
We dream about it, argue about it, worry about it, celebrate it, spend it, save it, we transfer it from one emotion to another. But what exactly is money? And why do we trust it? Frances Stonor Saunders takes a journey through some of the fundamentals of money. During her journey she dips her toe into the world of quantitative easing. How is that money invented? Is it as real as the pieces of paper in our wallets? And she explores some of the reasons for the calls to return to a gold standard. Essentially, she tries to gain a better understanding of what this stuff which we call money is really about; how and why do we maintain our faith in it, or has it just become too complicated?

Fiat Currency - It shall be.

In the end it all is based on trust, that money keeps its value.

Store of value?!
Means of exchange?!
Because of uncertainty about future value - GOLD has appreciated substantially over the last +10 years.

Debt, Credit, Money, its the language, syntax.
BOE  QE  monetary  policy  book  sovereign  debt  crisis  politics  promise  governance  centralbanks  Gold  trustagent  trust  fiatmoney  fiat  currency 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Guest Post: About Those High Gasoline Prices… Look Again | ZeroHedge
GOLD - It’s an anti-currency… appropriate for those who want to sit out of the market and be in cash without having to be in cash.
commodities  Oil  2012  monetary  policy  inflation  reflation  unintended  consequences  centralbanks  LTRO  QE  ZIRP  currency-war  currency  debasement  Gold 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Eric Sprott On Unintended Consequences | ZeroHedge
All of this pervasive intervention most likely explains more than 90 percent of the market's positive performance this past January. Had the G6 NOT convened on swaps, had the ECB NOT launched the LTRO programs, and had Bernanke NOT expressed a continuation of zero interest rates, one wonders where the equity indices would trade today. One also wonders if the European banking system would have made it through December. Thank goodness for "coordinated action". It does work in the short-term.

... bank bailout in the shadows of unconventional monetary policy (nonstandard measures) - QE, ZIRP, LTRO,

The second unintended consequence is the impact that interventions have had on the non-G6 countries' perception of western solvency.
ZIRP  centralbanks  China  Russia  currency  debasement  currency-war  Gold  solvency  monetary  policy  sovereign  debt  crisis  reflation  2012  2011  LTRO  BOJ  BOE  QE  ECB  Fed  unintended  consequences 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Unprecedented Global Monetary Policy As World Trade Volume Craters | ZeroHedge
Academic answers are now more favorable to coordination. ... The issue is often framed in the realm of game theory, where countries are pictured as players which weight the size of trade externalities, their perceived views of the world, their previous record of honoring agreements, and the advantages or disadvantages of committing to future actions. Generally speaking, factors like interdependence, coincidence in business cycles, the commonality of shocks, and heightened uncertainty, make it optimal for central banks to move farther away from inward-looking policies, especially during periods of global turmoil.
economics  2012  currency-war  UK  Europe  USA  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  sovereign  centralbanks  game  theory  monetary  policy 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Sweden Revamps Central Bank Tool Kit on Crisis - Bloomberg
The crisis has demonstrated that central bank models don’t take financial system risks properly into account, Ingves said, adding that it’s necessary to design econometric models that better catch the dynamics of the global economy.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last month signaled he also may be changing his view on the degree to which asset prices should be incorporated in monetary policy, a tool he in 2002 deemed “far too blunt” to prevent bubbles. “The possibility that monetary policy could be used directly to support financial stability goals, at least on the margin, should not be ruled out,” Bernanke said on Oct. 18 in a speech in Boston.
GFC  financialcrisis  financialmarket  centralbanks  lesson  economics  model  academia  academics  monetary  policy  tools  error  folloy  monetarism  leverage  deleveraging  Riksbank  ECB  Fed  balancesheet  QE  reform  history 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Ben Bernanke realised printing yet more money would look desperate - Telegraph
The reality is QE has already done an awful lot of damage. America has expanded its base money supply three-fold in two and a half years – from 6pc to 18pc of national income. But even this jaw-dropping measure hasn't led to much of an expansion in monetary measures, such as M2 that include bank lending, precisely because the banks, for all the propaganda to the contrary, are still determined not to lend. They can make more money simply channelling QE money into stocks and other investments.Crucially, the banks also remain petrified of counter-party risk in the inter-bank market. Many of them, disgracefully, are still concealing vast sub-prime losses in off-balance-sheet vehicles. So they assume other banks are doing the same. Such mistrust between the banks – "we're lying, so they must be lying" – gums up the wheels of finance and starves even creditworthy firms of the funds needed to invest and create jobs.

zombi banks - same as japan +10 years ago.
transparency  Fed  benbernanke  2011  JacksonHole  QE  QE3  QE2  quantitative  easing  ZIRP  M2  moneysupply  monetary  policy  inflation  deflation  USA  UK  monetarybase  interbank  LIBOR  trust  confidence  toxicassets  subprime  zombi  banks  company  capitalism  fiatmoney  politics  barackobama  presidency  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  greatrecession  recovery  lostdecade  Japan  balancesheet  recession  richardkoo  deleveraging  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  centralbanks  trichet 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Barofsky Says Fed's Secret Loans Needed More Oversight - YouTube
Neil Barofsky, former special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program and a Bloomberg Television contributing editor, talks about the Federal Reserve's emergency loans during the financial crisis. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's effort to keep the economy from plunging into depression included lending banks and other companies as much as $1.2 trillion of public money, according to a Bloomberg News compilation of data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, months of litigation and an act of Congress. Barofsky speaks with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack."
barofsky  Fed  bailout  discountwindow  monetary  policy  transparency  oversight  TARP  GFC  financialcrisis  meltdown  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  centralbanks  2008  dollar 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Brazilian Government intervenes to protect Real from overvaluation | Forex Magnates
Brazilian government has added two measures to try to protect the Real from overvaluation.They have amended a 1980 law that grants authority to the Monetary Council (CMN) to impose and control financial transaction taxes, or IOF taxes, on dollar derivatives contracts – dollar forwards and futures contracts. The dollar futures market is the biggest futures market in Brazil. Under the new rule, CMN can charge as much as 25% in the IOF tax — the limit specified under existing national laws.In addition, they have made amendments to constitutional laws which allow the government to charge a 1% tax on all Forex derivatives transactions that are increasing their short dollar position greater than $10 million.
brazil  hot-money  QE  ZIRP  2011  capital-controls  two-speed  developing-world  centralbanks  currency-war 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
« earlier      
per page:    204080120160

related tags

1%  2.0  3D  21stcentury  a16z  Abenomics  ABS  abundance  abuse  academia  academics  account  accountability  accounting  added  advantage  advice  affairs  Africa  ageing  Agentina  agglomeration  AIIB  alangreenspan  algorithm  Alibaba  AlistairDarling  allocation  alternative  Alto  America  and  Andreessen  Angela  animal  Arabia  artificial  Asia  asset  assets  AUD  austerity  australia  Australian  automation  AVC  aversion  avoidance  babyboomers  bail  bail-in  bailout  balance  balancesheet  balckswan  bank  banking  bankrun  bankruptcy  banks  barackobama  Barcap  barclays  Bargeld  barofsky  Basel  Basel3  BBA  behavioral  Ben  benbernake  benbernanke  Benchmark  Berlin  Bernanke  Beton  Betongold  big  Bill  bipolar  BIS  Bitcoin  Black  blackswan  Blockchain  Blue  Blyth  BoC  BOC  BOE  BoE  BoJ  BOJ  bond  bonds  book  boom  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  borderless  brazil  bribery  BRIC  bubble  bubbles  budget  Bundesbank  burn  business  Bust  butterfly  Buy  call  Canada  capital  capital-controls  capital-flight  capitalism  car  card  Career  carmenreinhart  Carney  Carry  cash  central  centralbanks  CFTC  CHF  china  city  class  Code  coefficient  cohesion  Collapse  collusion  Commanding  commodities  commoditization  commodity  communication  community  company  comparative  competition  competitive  competitiveness  complex  complexity  compliance  confidence  consent  consequences  consume  consumer  consumption  contagion  contract  Contractor  controls  corporate  corporations  corporatism  correction  correlation  corruption  cost  counterpartyrisk  creation  creative  Creatives  credibility  credit  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  creditrating  crime  crisis  crony  crunch  culture  currency  currency-war  current  cyber  cycle  damage  davidcameron  debasement  debt  debtoverhang  decade  decline  default  deficit  deflation  deflationary  deleveraging  demand  democracy  Democratic  demographic  demographics  demography  deposit  deregulation  derivatives  destruction  devaluation  developed  Developing  developing-world  digital  diplomacy  discount  discounted  discounting  discountwindow  discretionary  disequilibrium  disorder  disposable  distortion  distributed  distribution  distrust  divergence  doctor  dogma  dollar  Donald  door  dot.com  double-dip  downward  Drawing  Drugs  easing  East  Eating  ecb  economic  economic-thought  economics  economies  economist  economy  ecosystem  education  effect  EFSF  emerging  emergingmarkets  employment  EMU  energy  entry  environment  equilibrium  equity  error  ESM  Establishment  ethics  EURIBOR  Europe  European  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  evasion  excess  expectation  Expenditure  export  exports  Exportweltmeister  external  exuberance  EZB  Fab.com  fabric  fagile  Failure  fairness  faultlines  Fed  Ferguson  fiat  fiatmoney  finance  financial  financial-industrial  financialcrisis  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  financialmarket  fiscal  fixed  flat  flow  folloy  folly  FOMO  for  forecast  foreign  foreignexchange  forward  fracking  fractional  fragile  framing  France  Francisco  fraud  Fred  Free  freelance  freelancing  Frontier  frontiermarkets  FSA  FSB  full  fund  Funding  Future  FX  G7  G8  G20  game  gap  gas  GDP  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  gentrification  Gentrified  geopolitics  George  GeorgeOsborne  Germany  GFC  gilts  Gini  global  global-economy  globalisation  globalization  glut  gold  governance  government  Great  greatdepression  greatrecession  Greenspan-Put  Grid  growth  guidance  Gurley  haircut  hayek  Heights  Help  henrypaulson  high  history  Horowitz  hot  hot-money  Hour  household  HSBC  hubris  human  hunt  hyperinflation  IBS  ideology  III  imbalance  imbalances  IMF  immigration  Impediments  income  incomplete  India  Indian  industrial  industry  inequality  inflation  information  infrastructure  insolvency  Insolvenzverschleppung  Integrationspolitik  interbank  interest  intervention  investigative  investment  Iran  irrational  Is  ISIS  Islamic  Island  IT  Italy  IWF  Jack  JacksonHole  jail  Janet  Japan  JGB  job  Jobs  Joseph  journalism  journalismus  jubilee  july  junk  KennethRogoff  Kohn  Koo  Krugman  labour  Larry  Latin  laundering  LBO  Lean  legitimacy  lehmanbrothers  lending  lesson  leverage  levy  liberal  LIBOR  liquidity  liquidity-trap  literacy  living  loan  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  lohndumping  Lohnzurückhaltung  London  long-term  lost  lostdecade  lostgeneration  low  LTRO  Lunch  Lügenpresse  M2  M3  Ma  macroeconomic  macroeconomics  macroprudential  Makers  malinvestment  mandate  manipulation  manufactured  Manufacturing  Marc  margin  marginal  MarioDraghi  Mark  market  market-failure  market-mechanism  Markets  Marktwirtschaft  Martin  maximisation  mechanism  meltdown  Merkel  MervynKing  microeconomic  microeconomics  middle  Military–industrial  miltonfriedman  MINT  misconduct  Mobile  mobility  model  Moderation  modern  monetarism  monetary  monetarybase  monetisation  monetization  money  moneysupply  monopsony  moralhazard  mortgage  MPC  narrative  NATO  negative  negligence  neoliberal  neoliberalism  net  Network  Networking  New  new-normal  Niall  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  NIRP  No  nominal  Normal  NPL  NYFed  obligation  Ocean  OECD  of  Oil  oligopol  oligopoly  OMT  on  ope  OPEC  operationtwist  OpertationTwist  Osborne  OTC  outlook  output  output-gap  outsourcing  overhang  oversight  Pact  Palo  panic  participation  Partnership  Paul  PaulTucker  PBC  PBoC  PBOC  pension  peso  peso-crisis  petrodollar  Petroleum  philosophy  PIGS  PIIGS  PIIGSFB  Piketty  PIMCO  policy  policy-makers  political  politicalscience  Politicians  politics  POMO  ponzischeme  population  populism  post-capitalism  PR  presidency  price  prices  printing  private  Privileged  Process  product  productive  productivity  profit  progress  promise  propensity  property  protectionism  psychology  public  Putin  QE  QE2  QE3  QT  quantitative  quantitative-easing  quo  R&D  radicalism  Raghuram  Rajan  rate  RBA  RBI  real  rebalancing  recession  recovery  refinancing  reflate  reflation  reform  reframing  refugee  regulation  regulators  Reich  repo  Representation  repression  Research  reserve  reserves  response  restructuring  retail  Revolution  revolving  Rich  Richard  richardkoo  rigging  Right  Riksbank  risk  RMB  Robert  robertshiller  Robotics  round  runway  Rupee  Russia  safety  San  Saudi  savings  scandal  scenario  Scene  scheme  Schuldenbremse  Schäuble  science  SDR  SEC  Sector  secular  security  self-employment  self-regulation  sentiment  Service  servitude  SF  SFO  shadow  shadowbanking  shale  shared  shareholder  sheet  Shiller  shock  short-term  short-termism  side  Silicon  simplicity  slowdown  Smart  SMP  SNB  social  society  sociology  Software  solvency  South  sovereign  Soziale  Sozialpolitik  spaces  Spain  Special  speculation  speculative  spending  spin  spirit  squeeze  squeezed  Stability  stagflation  stagnation  standard  Start-Up  state  status  STEM  Stiglitz  stimulus  Stockholm  stockmarket  storytelling  Street  structural  student  subprime  Summers  Super  supply  sustainability  sustainable  Swan  swapline  Switzerland  Syndrome  system  systemic  systemicrisk  systemrelevant  Systemrelevanz  taking  talent  Taper  targeting  TARP  tarsand  tax  TBTF  technocrat  technological  tension  terror  terrorism  The  theory  thinking  Thomas  Tightening  timgeithner  timing  TLTRO  to  Toff  too  toobigtofail  toobigtojail  tools  toxicassets  trade  trading  transferring-wealth  transmission  transparency  trap  treasuries  treasury  trichet  trickle-down  troika  trust  trustagent  Turkey  two-speed  UAE  UK  Ukrain  Ukraine  uncertainty  unconventional  underemployed  underinvestment  underwater  unemployment  unintended  Union  unknown  unknowns  unkown  unrest  USA  USD  Valley  value  VAR  velocity  Venture  view  vladimirputin  vocational  volatility  wage  Wall  war  Werkvertrag  western  White-collar  Wilson  Wolf  Wolfgang  Work  world  Worldbank  Year  Yellen  Yen  yield  York  youth  Yuan  Zeitarbeit  Zero  ZIRP  zombi  zombie 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: