asterisk2a + butterfly   3

'Substantial' El Nino event predicted - BBC News
El Nino is a warming of the Pacific Ocean as part of a complex cycle linking atmosphere and ocean. It is known to disrupt weather patterns around the world, and can bring wetter winters to the southwest US and droughts to northern Australia. The consequences of El Nino are much less clear for Europe and the UK. Research suggest that extreme weather events like El Nino will become more intense as global temperatures rise. // &! week later - Global food markets could be disrupted by the El Nino event predicted for later this year. [...] Research suggests that extreme El Nino events will become more likely as global temperatures rise. Models suggest that climate change could double the number of extreme El Ninos after 2050.
El  Nino  climate  science  climate  system  butterfly  effect  extreme  weather  weather  extreme 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
8 Reasons Why A New Global Financial Crisis Could Be On The Way -
Like any other bubble, it will only become one once it bursts. What is different in 2014 is that now central banks have a great tool to prevent real estate bubbles: Basel III and its countercyclical capital buffer. [...] Let us not forget the lessons of the Great War (we are now commemorating the 100-year anniversary): the butterfly effect can be deadly in politics. +++ "Raghuram Rajan, the governor of India's central bank, fears supereasy money from the world’s central banks is inflating assets and encouraging bad investments. [...] Long-term low interest rates and unorthodox programs to stimulate economies — like quantitative easing, or QE — could be laying the groundwork for more turmoil in financial markets, he argues. [...] With inflation not being strong, this can continue for some time until things are so stretched that any signs of inflation, and a rise in interest rates, could precipitate a fairly strong market reaction. Certainly [...] volatility hurts[.]
equity  bubble  asset  bubble  shadow  banking  China  Basel3  Basel  III  centralbanks  BIS  bubbles  bubble  butterfly  effect  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  QE  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  Raghuram  Rajan  zombie  banks  NPL  PIGS  geopolitics  Middle  East  ISIS  Islamic  State  Ukrain  Ukraine  radicalism  Putin  vladimirputin  Russia  Europe  USA  foreign  affairs  diplomacy  NATO  IMF  austerity  secular  stagnation  stagnation  deflation  deflationary  uncertainty  Wall  Street  volatility  Taper  distortion  trust  trustagent  confidence  BRIC  India  MINT  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  emerging  market  flat  globalisation  globalization 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Met Office three-month forecast was 'not helpful'
In a note to the government chief scientist, the Met Office chief scientist Prof Julia Slingo explains the difficulty of constructing long-distance forecasts, given the UK's position at the far edge of dominant world weather systems. She says last year's calculations were not actually wrong because they were probabilistic. [...] "The creation of the three-monthly outlook relies upon the fact that weather is influenced by the slow variation of ocean conditions (and other processes) which can be predicted months in advance. [...] ,the UK's weather is dominated by the highly variable atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, making it much harder to predict what will happen weeks and months ahead." -->> the jet stream "over" UK, just a minor dis-positioning of 1000 miles can change the weather markedly
weather  forecast  complexity  globalwarming  MetOffice  UK  weather  system  weather  extreme  unintended  consequences  butterfly  effect  jet  stream  extreme  weather 
march 2013 by asterisk2a

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