asterisk2a + balance   277

Keiser Report: Gold & World’s Debt Problems (Summer Solutions series E940) - YouTube
deflationary trap/liquidity trap - orthodox monetary policy w austerity = stagnation. & west is exporting deflation. // if it is good for consumers ... break up banks. // hedging is BS ... you double the system you double the risk. [...] banks are now bigger! ... ban most derivatives, and reintroduce glass stegall // Black-Schoeles - there is no such think as risk free rate and no such thing as the past reflect the future. risk is not equally distributed. [...] VAR is flawed. //
deflation  deflationary  NIRP  currency  war  currency  debasement  ZIRP  QE  Helicopter  Money  secular  stagnation  western  world  Abenomics  BOE  BOJ  Fed  ECB  economic  history  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  debt  overhang  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  debt  household  debt  mortgage  mortgage  market  mortgage  rates  distortion  hunt  for  yield  credit  boom  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  reflate  reflation  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  income  disparity  working  poor  Precariat  Brexit  GFC  too  big  to  jail  productive  investment  underinvestment  austerity  history  productivity  gap  financial  instruments  investment  banking  global  economy  globalisation  globalization  derivatives  output  gap  productivity  recovery  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Chicago  School  neoclassical  economics  deregulation  Wall  Street  speculative  bubble  property  bubble  Beton  Gold  Betongold  stagnation  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  fail  TBTF  complexity  systemic  risk  systemrelevant  systemicrisk  systemrelevanz  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  non-performing  loan  leverage  hedge  Glass-Steagall  Black-Scholes  Equation 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Deutsche Bank Loves Helicopter Money: Why "Big Inflation Is Coming... But Will First Require A Crisis"
[NEED FOR CHANGE OF WIND - deflationary pressures ] Europe is another story. Germany must let their southern neighbors cheat on deficits and bank recapitalizations. “Spanish election showed if you let them cheat and growth surprises positively then extremists don’t do so well. Europe can only survive as an inflation zone. Will it be formally tolerated? Probably not. Will governments cheat anyway with ECB support?” Probably.
Deutsche  Bank  Italy  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Germany  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ECB  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Jens  Weidmann  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  zombie  zombie  banks  Richard  Koo  Helicopter  Money  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  policy  monetary  theory  deflation  deflationary  Brexit  European  Bank  Supervision  BaFin  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  right-wing  far  right  far-right  Front  National  AfD  UKIP  Centrist  recovery  income  distribution  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  globalisation  globalization  Paul  Mason  crony  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  poverty  poverty  trap  social  mobility  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  wage  pressure  income  growth  GFC  economic  history  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  debt  overhang  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  credit  card  debt  western  world  secular  stagnation  non-performing  loan  bail-in  bailout  recapitalization  recapitalisation  UK  Japan 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Capitalism and Mental Health: How the Market Makes Us Sick
POVERTY TRAP! // we were never as miserable as a nation as ever before.
profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  underinvestment  austerity  shareholder  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  capitalism  capitalist  working  poor  Precariat  squeezed  middle  class  status  anxiety  materialism  consumerism  consumerist  well  being  mental  health  burnout  work  life  balance  exploitation  exploited  part-time  part-time  employment  Contractor  self-employment  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  cortisol  poverty  trap  poverty  child  poverty  low  pay  low  income  shareholder  value  Wall  Street  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Robert  Skidelsky  Slavoj  Žižek  Disabled  vulnerable  DWP  WCA  Iain  Duncan  Smith  Stephen  Crabb  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  public  health  public  health  policy  public  health  risk  liberal  economic  reform  neoliberal  neoliberalism  JSA  sanctions  Food  Bank  self-medication  substance  abuse  abuse  alcohol  abuse  alcoholism  binge  drinking  coping  mechanism  GP  health  care  cost  health  care  demand  NHS  homeless  homelessness  Housing  Generation  Rent  UK  USA  precarious  work  precarious  employment  isolation  child  protection  education  policy  Self-esteem  sociology  psychology  Wertegesellschaft  Gesellschaft  values  Gentrified  Gentrifzierung  gentrification  Beton  Gold  Betongold  urban  planning  urbanisation  rat  capitalism  class  economic 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Yanis Varoufakis: »MONEY AND POWER«, Public Lecture 2015-11-04
3rd bailout loan $0 went to Greece. All to pay off banks. extend & pretend. 1st: ~90% went to the banks. [...] ESM does not exist [...] banking union plan not progressing at all. //&! Yanis Varoufakis @Oxford Union - youtu.be/zWB6lY2GBjQ - ACADEMIA LACKS ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT ATTITUDE! Because going against the grain has become anti-reputation. [...] it's all about expectations, predictions about where S&P500 will be in 12 months. [...] regression between theory and reality. economists have never been humble. [ see Wall Street cottage factory of analysis and prediction shops ] [...] if you torture the data and model enough it will confess. [< EU monetary union based on theory ] [...] [34:00] Brussels is technically incompetent and will not reform itself. I am a libertarian marxist. Schumpeter. true creative destruction. great wealth currently created - all going to 1%. = not humanitarian. not democratic. [...] 41:00 Q&A, <48:50> gov budget not same as household budget; George Osborne.
bank  crisis  banking  crisis  European  Election  2014  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Grexit  Yanis  Varoufakis  Tsipras  Syriza  Brussels  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  GFC  Great  Depression  credit  crisis  credit  creation  Super  Cycle  debt  overhang  liquidity  trap  ECB  Troika  MarioDraghi  economic  history  Richard  Koo  leverage  recovery  deflation  deflationary  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Germany  underinvestment  Super  Rich  reflate  reflation  Generationengerechtigkeit  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  balance  sheet  recession  Euro  Gold  Standard  ESM  IMF  OECD  banking  union  EEA  Economics  Academia  Academics  Economists  Scholars  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Gesellschaft  society  Yanis  Varoufakis  financial  crisis  economic  model  econometrics  social  theory  monetary  union  Chicago  School  poverty  economic  history  austerity  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  UK  nasty  party  Richard  Koo  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  macroprudential  policy  aggregate  demand  Capital  Expenditure  income  tax  receipts  deflation  deflationary  Universal  Basic  class  warfare 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
George Osborne warns of further spending cuts in Budget - BBC News
[ LOL! ] But recent figures showing the UK economy was smaller than expected meant savings must be found in his Budget statement on 17 March, he said. [...] Mr Osborne said he would rather look for extra cuts now than risk breaking his own manifesto commitment to achieve a surplus in the budget by the end of this Parliament. The chancellor did not completely rule out raising taxes in the event of a further slowdown in growth, but said that now was not the time for "significant" tax hikes. [...] I'm absolutely clear we've got to root our country in the principle that we live within our means and that we have economic security." [...] "whole purpose of our economic plan was to have a budget surplus. [...] we got big challenges at home to make the economy more productive even as more people get work. [ because having part of your budget in the property bubble is so productive ] [...] I will do what is required to keep our country safe and secure." [ NOT CHANGING PLANS ie U-TURN ]
UK  secular  stagnation  austerity  Richard  Koo  Japan  economic  history  dogma  ideology  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  economists  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Robert  Reich  David  Cameron  Tories  nasty  party  recovery  aggregate  demand  Conservative  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  BOE  City  of  London  HMRC  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  self-employment  corporate  tax  rate  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  multiplier  precarious  work  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  tax  credit  housing  benefit  income-based  JSA  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  wage  stagnation  stagnation  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  skills  gap  STEM  productivity  output  gap  Manufacturing  industrial  policy  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  Chicago  School  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  property  bubble  apprenticeships  value  creation  added  value  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  marginal  cost  energy  price  energy  policy  Hinkley  Point  C  nuclear  power  nuclear  waste  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  welfare  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbyin 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What Really Caused the Crisis and What to Do About It - YouTube
"There are not perfect markets, and there is no perfect planner. [...] we will never arrive at perfect solutions. [...] market will never allocate perfectly ... [...] market will always tend to lend to property and land, and less into productive means (businesses = risk of 100 loss, land or property ... you have a loss when you sell it. << China, UK ) [...] not all credit is good credit. [...] need for macroprudential policy to dampen bubbles bc rate hikes could dampen normal non-speculative area of economy. ie loan to value limits [...] interest rate setting is blunt hammer that people though is the magic wand along the line of self-regulation, free market, neoliberalism and trickle-down [...] GFC can be traced back to the 60-70's - macroecon + micro with absurd assumptions (ie rational expectations, equilibriums, no bubbles) & math & pure theoretical base (no empirical analysis ie of what banks really do ie greed) = makes job of economist as policy advisor real easy.
bank  crisis  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  book  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  western  world  dogma  ideology  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  economic  history  credit  bubble  output  gap  productivity  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  asset  allocation  economics  investment  banking  zombie  banks  retail  banking  financial  product  CDS  CDO  hunt  for  yield  VAR  risk  aversion  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Glass-Steagall  self-regulation  regulators  regulation  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  arbitrage  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  BOE  zombie  consumer  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  corporations  NPL  junk  bond  realestate  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  equilibrium  disequilibrium  Economist  economists  Adair  Turner  hayek 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Help-to-buy loan scheme nets Treasury £213m in paper profit | Money | The Guardian
[ gov is not co-owner of private property! Make away with Nurse Bursaries and other gov support for education. But support the property price! by keeping supply always lower than demand. and use policy to increase demand w subsidies! where to put their savings! & subsidy for builders ] Rising house prices across much of England mean a government scheme to help buyers of newbuild property may have made more than £200m for the Treasury in its first two-and-a-half years. The help-to-buy equity loan scheme gives buyers an interest-free loan for five years in return for a percentage stake in their property. When the home is sold, the buyer returns the same percentage of the sale price, meaning that any fall or rise in house prices affects the return. Analysis by property firm Hometrack and shared with the Guardian suggests that a surge in house prices in some areas means the total value of homes bought through the scheme since its launch in April 2013 has increased by more than £1bn.
property  bubble  UK  speculative  bubbles  Housing  Crisis  affordable  social  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Save  budget  deficit  austerity  constituency  Party  Funding  babyboomers  BOE  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  distortion  financial  repression  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  fairness  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  NPL  subprime  Payday  Loans  car  loan  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Tories  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  Conservative  Party  nasty  short-termism  voter  turnout  disenfranchise  disenfranchised  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productive  investment  recovery  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  secular  stagnation  Privatisation  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  GFC  bank  bailout  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  welfare 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What's holding back the world economy? | Business | The Guardian
[ continued financialisation of economy / faustian pact ] QE and low interest rates have disproportionately created wealth in the financial sector and inflated asset bubbles. It has done little for the real economy. The rules of the market need to be rewritten [...] dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse. In the US, quantitative easing did not boost consumption and investment partly because most of the additional liquidity returned to central banks’ coffers in the form of excess reserves. [...] private investment did not grow [...] [ QE supported only financial sector and zombie banks and corporations, little to nothing went into the real economy for investment in western world ] [ which leads us to say we are still in a banking crisis per se ]
Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  austerity  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  Student  Bubble  loan  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  wage  stagnation  income  growth  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  mortgage  market  NPL  debt  servitude  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  inequality  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  asset  equity  VIX  volatility  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  aggregate  demand  income  redistribution  repo  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  financial  market  GFC  banking  crisis  retail  banking  investment  banking  hot-money  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  BRIC  rent-seeking  rentier  carbon  tax  economic  damage 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
'Panic situation': Asian stocks tumble amid fears of new global recession | Business | The Guardian
central banks have few avenues left to explore to encourage investment and boost growth. Talk of an impending recession in the US, however, is creating speculation among investors that the federal reserve will put on hold its attempts to normalise rates. “The ‘fear factor’ in markets has morphed from being about an emerging market hard-landing and collapsing oil prices to being about the extent of the slowdown in the developed world and the ability of central banks to reflate asset values yet again,” said analysts at Citi in a note. //&! Yield on Japan's 10-year bonds falls below zero - bit.ly/1Leu3JC - Germany, France and the Netherlands are among the countries to see their bonds soar in value, though Switzerland (not in the G7) is the only other country to see demand outstrip supply to such an extent that the yield has dropped below zero. Bonds worth about $7tn (£4.8tn) now have a negative yield rate. //&! BOE Taper expectations go out the window till 2020 - bit.ly/1SdxUhN
global  economy  2016  secular  stagnation  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Taper  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  liquidity  trap  western  world  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Oil  price  emerging  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  USA  UK  Europe  economic  history  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  credit  reflate  reflation  VIX  volatility  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  distortion  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  IMF  OECD  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  bond  bubble  Fed  BOE  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
More Evidence Supporting the House of Debt | House of Debt
Many have argued that we overstate the importance of housing and household debt in explaining the Great Recession and weak recovery. They point to the banking crisis, policy uncertainty, or excessive regulation as equally or even more important. The data released today by the BEA show pretty clearly that the arguments we make in House of Debt remain relevant for thinking about economic weakness today. In our view, the explanation we provide is the most consistent with the striking difference in consumption across states. // From Comments: Without real median income rising you can’t grow in an economy based on debt expansion
secular  stagnation  consumer  debt  mortgage  market  household  debt  USA  UK  recovery  GFC  credit  card  debt  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  book  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumerist  consumerism  zombie  consumer  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  negative  equity  job  creation  precarious  work  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  Service  Sector  Jobs  job-creation  squeezed  middle  class  Elizabeth  Warren  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  mobility  social  mobility  American  Dream  post-racial  America  Joseph  Stiglitz  Thomas  Piketty  Paul  Krugman  part-time  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  income  growth  income  inequality  economic  history  Super  Rich  1%  austerity  oligarchy  plutocracy  fiscal  stimulus  budget  deficit  corporate  welfare  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  corporate  tax  rate  subsidies  subsidizing  welfare  state  social  safety  net  western  world  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Chicago  School  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Amid market turmoil and confusion, there are four key economic trends shaping society
The UK economy currently gets nowhere near its target of 2%. Inflation would decrease the value of current debts, making them less of a burden. In a world without much inflation, it is hard to get wages up. The worse case scenario is that debt costs increase, as prices and wages stagnate. [ ignoring debt and income growth - stagnation at their peril - youtu.be/KIaXVntqlUE - gov is no household budget, Steve Keen + Richard Koo ] [...] And in this age of austerity, these factors will work against governments seeking to reduce the welfare bill. Recent data shows that, in UK cities, growing numbers of low paid jobs have led to rising claims for welfare such as housing benefits, defeating the government’s aims to reduce spending.
economic  history  secular  stagnation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  inflation  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  minimum  wage  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  tax  credit  housing  benefit  working  tax  credit  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  western  world  GDP  wage  inflation  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  inequality  income  inequality  income  redistribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  monetary  system  monetary  theory  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  banks  monetary  velocity  Niall  Ferguson  NPL  junk  bond  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  China  credit  BRIC  output  gap  productivity  industrial  policy  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  property  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  money  supply  faultlines  global  imbalances  recovery  working  poor  Precariat 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Next week's junior doctor strike on - BBC News
[ after they came back on the table from the first strike and another strike as been called off during negotiation ] Next week's strike by junior doctors in England will go ahead as talks with the government have failed to reach a solution - but union leaders say medics will provide emergency cover. [...] BMA junior doctor leader Dr Johann Malawana said despite some "good progress" the union had been left no choice but to announce the stoppage would take place. He accused the government of taking an "entrenched" position by insisting the extra pay doctors get for working on a Saturday is cut. [ Tories redefine WEEKEND, as they did with poverty, and else ] Dr Malawana said: "What we are asking for is fair and affordable recognition of unsocial hours."
Tories  nasty  party  NHS  austerity  Jeremy  Hunt  BMA  Junior  Doctor  staff  morale  locum  staff  staff  shortage  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  Manifesto  babyboomers  constituency  budget  deficit  budget2015  Conservative  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  No  Representation  social  democracy  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  premature  ageing  ageing  population  OAP  A&E  GP  elderly  care  adult  social  care  Public  Services  Services  Council  health  policy  health  sick  population  health  crisis  health  care  budget  health  care  spending  PR  spin  Positioning  work  life  balance  well  being  happiness  chronic  stress  burnout 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
'World's best chef' Benoit Violier dies aged 44 - BBC News
[ suicide - entrapment, men in their 40's one of the big killers ] Swiss police said Mr Violier, who was born in France, appeared to have shot himself.
work  life  balance  burnout  Food  Politics  creative  destruction  creativity  work  environment  happiness  well  being  mental  health  Depression  Suicide 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Insatiability, and the 15-hour week - YouTube
// book wealth of nations //&! Prof Lord Robert Skidelsky - How Much is Enough? The Economics of the Good Life - youtu.be/yeWz5Cg_BD4 //&! Guaranteed Employment & Basic Income - youtu.be/2W1ShSG1X6k //&! Why the precariat requires a basic income (Prof. Guy Standing) (ENG) - youtu.be/4WaA8zqjBSk //&! The Precariat: The new dangerous class - Sydney Ideas - youtu.be/-jJt-5i_dls
book  Robert  Skidelsky  income  distribution  GDP  nominal  GDP  targeting  macroeconomic  policy  happiness  index  microeconomic  policy  4-day  work  week  6-hour  work  day  economic  history  well  being  public  health  policy  public  health  leisure  time  work  life  balance  burnout  western  society  western  world  secular  stagnation  life  hacker  life  lesson  inequality  Gini  coefficient  wealth  distribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  social  democracy  No  Representation  democracy  welfare  state  social  safety  net  minimum  wage  Universal  Basic  Thomas  Piketty  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  poverty  in  old  age  poverty  UK  USA  Europe  transferring-wealth  wealth-distribution  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  Greed  zombie  consumer  consumerism  consumerist  status  anxiety  Selbstdarstellung  Selbstfürsorge  sociology  philosophy  Aristotle  low  income  tax  free  income  income  redistribution  income  inequality 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  deposit  levy  MarioDraghi  Abenomics  economic  history  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  recovery  Yen  Euro  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  distortion  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  debt  bubble  New  Normal  financial  repression  faultlines  global  economy  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Japan  UK  secular  stagnation  western  world  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflation  Sweden  Switzerland  China  Yuan  JGB  2016  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Super  Cycle  recession  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Chaotic lives and ethical dilemmas: inside the hospital liver ward | Society | The Guardian
Hepatologists in Southampton are seeing more young, middle-class and female alcoholics – some even in their teens [...] Half of Wright’s liver patients are not drinkers. He sees obese patients with fatty liver disease and cirrhosis, and those with viral hepatitis. But the drinkers are addicted and it is hard for the NHS to sort them out. //&! The secret alcohol liaison nurse's diary: 'Cuts are having a devastating impact' - http://bit.ly/1ZX9EEW - We receive multiple referrals where clients have an underlying alcohol-related mental health problem. //&! How the NHS saved my life: I spent my 20s playing Russian roulette with alcohol - bit.ly/1Tjzr53 //&! >> With budgets tight and lifestyle diseases burgeoning, the NHS will not be saved until the vested interests ranged against it are taken on << Sugar Tax, Minimum Alcohol Unit Pricing, Animal Product Tax, Fast Food/Food Chain Tax, Processed/Engineered Food Tax - bit.ly/1NtxwDL
liver  disease  non-alcoholic  fatty  liver  disease  Alcohol  abuse  alcoholism  binge  drinking  coping  mechanism  well  being  chronic  stress  chronic  low-grade  inflammation  NHS  sick  population  diet-related  disease  chronic  diseases  health  crisis  health  care  health  care  budget  health  care  spending  self-medication  addiction  substance  abuse  food  abuse  drug  abuse  Lad  culture  subculture  culture  UK  binge  eating  Entertainment  Escapeism  distraction  Oxidative  stress  stress  mental  health  work  life  balance  A&E  public  health  policy  public  health  Sugar  Tax  vested  interest  interest  groups  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  Politics  Meat  Industry  fast  food  Chain  junk  food  food  engineering  food  prices  carcinogen  carcinogenic 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Meet the Renegades Steve Keen - YouTube
[ chicago school of economics ] 17:25 - private debt // demand will never be again so starong as before GFC. growth of debt/credit is normal. but without growth and high debt is cancer. + current account deficit/trade deficit = means things for UK can not go in indefinitely. austerity will run its course, will not make things better. next is property bubble! and NPL as normalisation to 2% nears // China margin trading & leverage via credit bubble. property bubble. // 24:20 - there is still room to grow household/private debt. Tories treat gov budget like a household rather than a bank! UK will stumble along at lower rate than America. Will not get better! Just rearranging deck chairs of a painfully slowly sinking ship.
secular  stagnation  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  UK  USA  Japan  economic  history  car  loan  GFC  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  consumer  confidence  junk  bond  NPL  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  student  debt  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  mortgage  market  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  austerity  dogma  neoclassical  economics  book  ideology  margin  trading  leverage  western  world  Hegemony  China  Super  Cycle 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Why are we looking on helplessly as markets crash all over the world? | Will Hutton | Opinion | The Guardian
[ so much debt in the system, a rise in interest can not be served as is ] The imminent collapse of the Chinese Ponzi-scheme economy shows that we need to bring control to the international economy. [...] There has always been a tension at the heart of capitalism. Although it is the best wealth-creating mechanism we’ve made, it can’t be left to its own devices. Its self-regulating properties, contrary to the efforts of generations of economists trying to prove otherwise, are weak. [...] Profits as a share of national income in Britain and the US touch all-time highs; wages touch an all-time low as the power of organised labour diminishes and the gig economy of short-term contracts takes hold. The excesses of the rich, digging underground basements to house swimming pools, cinemas and lavish gyms, sit alongside the travails of the new middle-class poor. These are no longer able to secure themselves decent pensions and their gig-economy children defer starting families ...
China  credit  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  BRIC  2015  2016  self-regulation  capitalism  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Gig  Economy  Zero  Hour  Contract  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  western  world  aggregate  demand  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  economic  history  balance  sheet  recession  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  mortgage  market  working  poor  poverty  trap  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  inequality  plutocracy  oligarchy  Super  Rich  1%  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  David  Cameron  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalisation  globalization  exploitation  borderless  flat  world  USA  UK  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  debt  servitude  wage  stagnation  shared  economic  interest  NPL  shadow  banking  shadow  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  democracy  social  democracy  Generationengerechtigkeit 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
"Markets Crash When They're Oversold" | Zero Hedge
Technology Destroying Jobs + While the big driver of the decline in economic growth since the 1980’s has been a structural change from a manufacturing based economy (high multiplier effect) to a service based one (low multiplier effect), it has been exacerbated by the increase in household debt to offset the reduction in wage growth to maintain the standard of living. This is shown clearly in the chart below. [...] In fact, each job created in energy-related areas has had a “ripple effect” of creating 2.8 jobs elsewhere in the economy from piping to coatings, trucking and transportation, restaurants and retail. Simply put, lower oil and gasoline prices may have a bigger detraction on the economy than the “savings” provided to consumers.
Oil  price  shale  gas  fracking  job  creation  USA  2016  Service  Sector  Jobs  Manufacturing  globalization  globalisation  neoliberalism  neoliberal  borderless  flat  world  economic  history  UK  low  income  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  property  bubble  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  job  security  job  market  jobcreation  job-creation  recovery  GFC  dogma  ideology  austerity  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  trade  agreement  TPP  TTIP  NAFTA  CETA  European  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  faultlines  2015  presidency  barackobama  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  George  Osborne  private  debt  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börse: Warum Schwellenländer für die Kurskrise sorgen - Kolumne - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Chronisch überschüssige Leistungsbilanz [ & Over capacity for less/stagnant demand ... + biggest credit bubble (china) popped as the west can't afford more. QE and ZIRP has run it's way! ] [...] Der Grund, warum der deutsche Aktienindex weitaus mehr betroffen ist als andere europäische Indizes, liegt allein an der strukturellen Abhängigkeit der deutschen Industrie von Blasen in anderen Ländern. Anstatt auf bessere Stimmung zu hoffen, sind Anleger gut beraten, sich über den weiteren Verlauf der Schwellenländerkrise Gedanken zu machen. [...] [ Fed taper makes things more difficult to serve debt ] [...] Langfristig sind es die Gewinne und nicht die Zinsen, die die Aktienpreise treiben. //&! China (Asia/BRIC/Frontier Market) Corporate Bond Yields up - bit.ly/1Sme7fV & NPL probably too. //&! If property is biggest item of household wealth in a property bubble (UK, China, ... USA) - bit.ly/1Zpiy8M
trade  deficit  BRIC  credit  bubble  western  world  secular  stagnation  macroeconomic  policy  China  Japan  Germany  UK  USA  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  NPL  shadow  banking  shadow  economy  banking  crisis  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  QT  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  mortgage  market  Fed  BOE  ECB  European  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  private  debt  corporate  debt  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  austerity  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  Russia  OPEC  aggregate  demand  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  Richardkoo  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  student  loan  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  trade  agreement  Hegemony  TPP  TTIP  TISA  CETA  NAFTA  Africa  South  Africa  global  trade  trade  balance  current  account  deficit  Frontier  Markets  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Taper  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  Abenomics  economic  history  India  irrational  exuberance  Robert  Shiller  inequality  Gini  coefficient  deflationary 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Perfect Storm!? | Zero Hedge
And with debt now $57 trillion higher worldwide than in 2008, it’s not at all clear that another borrowing binge will be greeted with enthusiasm by the world’s bond markets, currency traders or entrepreneurs. [ market correction, no liquidity, stuck with position, this may be no correction, but correction back to fundamental grounds ] [...] And one thought will appear in all those minds: Why didn’t I load up on gold when I had the chance?
2015  2016  China  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  household  debt  mortgage  market  property  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  credit  card  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  servitude  corporate  debt  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  economic  history  Taper  Fed  BOE  ECB  PBOC  output  gap  globalisation  globalization  borderless  secular  stagnation  western  world  OPEC  Oil  price  commodity  prices  flat  world  BRIC  leverage 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
BBC Radio 4 - Radio 4 in Four, What can we learn from the Danish concept of cosiness?
[ british color in books in 2015, danes hygge which has a priority in life, have your you time - consciously, appreciating it, and the people you are with. Presentness. Presenteeism. ] Emma Barnett talks to some experts about hygge - a Danish word which is often explained as cosiness. How can we all get more hygge in our lives?
well  being  life  hacker  life  lesson  burnout  mental  health  happiness  retreat  culture  work  life  balance  lifestyle  lifestyle  medicine  Mindfulness 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Osborne warns of 'dangerous cocktail' of economic risks - BBC News
[ repeat phrases - "strong economy", "strong economy, strong NHS" ] The UK faces a "cocktail" of serious threats from a slowing global economy as 2016 begins, Chancellor George Osborne has warned. Speaking in Cardiff, Mr Osborne said this year is likely to be one of the toughest since the financial crisis. He told business leaders that far from "mission accomplished" on the economy, "2016 is the year of mission critical". His message is in stark contrast to the positive tone of his Autumn Statement, when he said the UK was "growing fast". [...] that the Autumn Statement had put in place a four-year plan to restore the UK's public finances, and make the economy more productive, with businesses more competitive so they could create jobs. [...] Mr Osborne told the Today programme the UK's economic recovery was not "a debt-fuelled recovery", citing the support of the governor of the Bank of England in his assessment. [ not public, but private household debt! ]
George  Osborne  Career  Politicians  PR  spin  doctor  budget2015  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  austerity  underinvestment  productive  investment  productivity  output  gap  job  creation  wage  growth  consumer  debt  household  debt  Positioning  energy  policy  competitiveness  renewable  energy  corporate  welfare  corporate  tax  rate  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  subsidies  subsidizing  NHS  Jeremy  Hunt  David  Cameron  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  Manifesto  constituency  babyboomers  Opportunism  opportunist  Oil  price  bank  bailout  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Housing  Crisis  affordable  generation  rent  property  bubble  NPL  mortgage  market  car  loan  credit  card  debt  budget  deficit  balance  sheet  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  borderless  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  student  loan  debt  private  debt  sovereign  debt  corporate  debt  student  debt  student  loan  Maintenance  Grant  Education  Maintenance  Allowance  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  BOE  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Mindfulness has huge health potential – but McMindfulness is no panacea | Jon Kabat-Zinn | Comment is free | The Guardian
[ you own only your thoughts, emotions and health (fitness) ] [ you have to function ] Mindfulness is often misunderstood – so let us be clear about what we are encouraging. In essence, mindfulness – being about attention, awareness, relationality, and caring – is a universal human capacity akin to our capacity for language acquisition. It is a way of being in wise and purposeful relationship with one’s experience, both inwardly and outwardly, with oneself and with others. Thus there is an intrinsic social dimension to its cultivation as well. It usually involves cultivating familiarity and intimacy with aspects of everyday experience that we often take for granted.
public  health  policy  public  health  mental  health  well  being  happiness  Mindfulness  NHS  materialism  status  anxiety  anxiety  Sozialer  Abstieg  precarious  work  job  security  chronic  stress  burnout  work  life  balance  meditation  off-time  mobile  homescreen  substance  abuse  deprivation  Perspektivlosigkeit  Perspective  philosophy  sociology  western  world  capitalism  work  environment  Gesellschaft  Wertegesellschaft  Wegwerfgesellschaft  zombie  consumer  Dopamine  Serotonin  consumerist  consumerism  consumer  choice  mental  debt  paradox  of  choice  opportunity  cost  restlessness  insomnia  pharmaceutical  industry  pharma  big  pharma  Standard  American  Diet  pattern  western  western  society  western  lifestyle  lifestyle  medicine  sedentary  lifestyle  active  lifestyle  Always-ON  Oxidative  stress  stress 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
UK interest rates held at 0.5% after 8-1 Bank vote - BBC News
The central bank said cost pressures in the UK's labour market were rising too slowly for inflation to return to the Bank's 2% target, and that inflation would stay below 1% until spring 2016. Inflation has been hovering around 0% for the past few months, but the Bank had indicated that robust domestic growth and the fading effect of last year's big oil price falls would cause it to bounce back towards 2% next year. Although UK consumer spending had remained resilient, bolstered by wage growth, attempts to reduce the UK budget deficit had restrained activity and global growth had been below average.
UK  BOE  MPC  austerity  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  disposable  income  income  growth  low  income  job  creation  productivity  output  gap  recovery  fiscal  policy  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  monetary  policy  2015  consumer  debt  household  debt  mortgage  market  car  loan  Student  Bubble  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  balance  sheet  recession  leverage  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  asset  reflate  reflation  property  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  global  economy  USA  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  George  Osborne  Tories  Conservative  Party  constituency  babyboomers  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  Millennials  generationy 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Nomi Prins-Federal Reserve Transition to Destruction - YouTube
via - http://schiffgold.com/interviews/former-wall-street-insider-some-form-of-bank-bail-ins-will-come-to-us-video/ ||&! QE and ZIRP bad policy, bank and market cuddeling. no mainstreet recovery! trickle-down failed. Private sector can not carry existing minimal momentum forward. policy has not helped people on the ground. // many bubbles created: junk bond/zombie corps, car loans, student loans, property, ... // transition to destruction, volatility is first sign. // market manipulation! // inflated financial system // rise in NPL! where how will they cover that? another bailout? or bail-in. taking depositors haircut. FDIC can't cover that all.
ZIRP  NIRP  book  QE  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  BRIC  China  2015  junk  bond  trickle-down  economics  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  household  debt  UK  USA  BOE  Fed  mandate  Fed  Janet  Yellen  Mark  Carney  MPC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  retail  banking  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  market  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  benbernanke  alangreenspan  dot.com  speculative  bubbles  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  private  debt  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  fiscal  policy  austerity  consumer  debt  credit  card  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debtoverhang  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mainstreet.org  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  crony  capitalism  corporate  debt  bubbles  asset  bubble  correction  mortgage  market  libor  rigging  scandal  trust  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  FX  reserves  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  balance  sheet  recession  Niall  Ferguson  financial  repression  distortion  Pr 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
How to Cure Anxiety — One Workaholic’s Story, Six Techniques That Work | The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
// possible for those who are not working poor/precarious working conditions/minimum wage or below - ie working 7 days a week 2-3 jobs.
work  life  balance  life  hacker  life  lesson  work  environment  burnout  workaholic  western  lifestyle  sedentary  lifestyle  happiness  index  workplace  Future  of  4-day  work  week 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Is Global Economic Doubt Behind the Unchanged Rate? - YouTube
youtu.be/f5_AGIMe32k // much higher $ already put ~25bps on US domestic market. // Fed is a risk manager now // labour market got a check mark, but not inflation bc of tech, stronger$ (taper anticipation), commodities lower, further deflationary pressures (retail price fighting 4 increase like4like sales), globalisation (competition), secular stagnation (continued low growth in western world, lower aggregate demand overall, lower baseline), consumer unable 2pickup where it threw in hat (deleveraging, no savings, debt overhang household, consumer). A new normal of growth of ~3% (give/take) globally aggregate & western wrld (2-2.5%, EU aggregate even lower). In this world, THERE WILL BE NO INFLATION PRESSURE (2% or higher, &3bn ppl free labour wrldwide) IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS THE REAL ECONOMY 4 EVERY DAY FOLK DOESNT REFLECT REFLATED ASSET PRICES via QE, ZIRP, credit bubbles arnd world enabled by central banks. &! youtu.be/NVa5fkz8X0o &! youtu.be/Ny3bbonX3d0 &! 1.usa.gov/1JdKZxp
Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  2015  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Janet  Yellen  participation  rate  employment  underemployed  full  employment  unemployment  structural  unemployment  USA  China  BRIC  credit  bubble  complexity  global  economy  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  property  bubble  BIS  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  secular  stagnation  western  world  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Super  Rich  1%  faultlines  savings  glut  Impediments  structural  imbalance  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  disposable  income  income  inequality  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  UK  BOE  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  security  labour  market  recovery  policy  response  fiscal  policy  austerity  Schuldenbremse  Pact  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Britain’s mental health is in crisis – a shadow minister can’t tackle it alone | Matt Haig | Comment is free | The Guardian
At the risk of sounding totally utopian, I’d like to see not just a minister for mental health, but the whole government addressing these issues. I’d like a country where the false divisions between mental health and physical health are seen as as daft as the four humours, and where the state of our minds and the state of the nation are seen as one. We are still in the dark ages when it comes to mental health ... &! http://www.theguardian.com/society/mental-health
NHS  mental  health  mental  illness  well  being  happiness  index  corporate  culture  corporate  values  HR  human  resources  complexity  work  environment  living  environment  childhood  development  childhood  education  policy  Depression  work  life  balance  chronic  stress  chronic  low-grade  inflammation  burnout  4-day  work  week  Oxidative  stress 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
One Map Shows Just How Expensive College Can Be for Students Making Minimum Wage
[S]ubstantial evidence that lack of information plays a critical role in shaping the financial decisions people make. Consider how a vast majority of people who are currently defaulting on their student loans in the U.S. would be able to halt their financial suffering if they knew they could enroll in an income-based repayment plan that would shrink or eliminate their monthly payments. This map goes some way toward explaining why low-income students are less likely to enroll in college. If the idea that college is a risky investment is something thats gaining traction in well-to-do circles, then surely people who hail from less fortunate backgrounds are even more inclined to think the potential price is too high. // could be seen as balance sheet recession: rising cost of education - & on other side - unable 2 pay w job u can get (asset value). Education is mispriced in UK/USA in a new world going forward! >> youtu.be/_EDGTzOXa_g?t=1h46m5s
College  University  USA  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  NPL  un-college  minimum  wage  cost  of  living  income  growth  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  Millennials  generationy  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  babyboomers  living  standard  standard  of  living  living  wage  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  2015  income  mobility  social  mobility  downward  mobility  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  1%  Super  Rich  income  inequality  low  income  income  redistribution  precarious  work  working  poor  job  security  job  creation  UK  education  policy  competition  globalisation  globalization  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  borderless  flat  world  trickle-down  economics  economic  history  inequality  labour  market  Service  Sector  Jobs  Niedriglohnsektor  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Robert  Reich  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  Thomas  Piketty  Elizabeth  Warren  Larry  Lessig  labour  economics  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  shared  economic  interest  secular  stagnation  stagnation  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  financial  literacy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  political  theory  vested  interest  interest  groups  generational  contract  lost  generation  lost  decade  personal  bankruptcy  poverty  trap  Mark  Blyth  dem 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Selling Off the State in China - Bloomberg View
China's latest batch of ugly data offers a stark message to President Xi Jinping: Whatever he's doing to prop up growth isn't working. Even worse than the 5.5 percent drop in exports last month was the 13.8 percent plunge in imports, indicating that domestic demand is weaker than the external sector. The good news is Xi is changing tack. Rather than just tossing more stimulus at the economy and stocks, he's redoubling efforts to reform the inefficient and opaque state-owned enterprises at the root of so many of China's vulnerabilities. In other words, Xi is finally working to strengthen China's foundations rather than papering over the cracks. The bad news is that Xi could just as easily be making things worse.
China  liberal  economic  reform  2015  credit  bubble  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  PBOC  QE  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  welfare  state  social  safety  net  savings  glut  public  health  care  system  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  monetary  policy  NPL  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  economic  reform 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
China's impossible trinity - BBC News
At the heart of China's problem is the "impossible trinity" of international macroeconomics. The impossible trinity - or trilemma - is the idea that it is impossible for a country to have three things at the same time: a stable currency, the free movement of capital (i.e. the absence of capital controls) and independent monetary policy. A country can instead choose just two of the options from this policy suite. The UK, in common with most developed economies, has free capital movement and an independent monetary policy - but not a controlled exchange rate. The Bank of England sets interest rates at a level it thinks is right for the UK economy and - as capital can flow into and out of the UK at will - the exchange rate is determined by the market. [...] But the bigger criticism is usually over the nature of the post-2009 stimulus package [...] But, for all the criticism, the counterfactual is rarely stated. What would global growth have looked like without it? [//+ deflation factors]
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Labour leadership races can change fast; interest rates, not so much | Business | The Guardian
The fact of the matter is that, while George Osborne is obsessed with shrinking the size of the public sector and causing hardship and misery, the real crisis in this country concerns not the size of the budget deficit, but the record peacetime balance-of-payments deficit of a whopping 6% of GDP. With this in mind, John Llewellyn and Russell Jones of Llewellyn Consulting have been urging the Bank to encourage the overvalued pound to fall towards more realistic levels, to avoid an almighty sterling crisis when the markets finally wake up to the real crisis in the British economy.
balance  of  payments  2015  budget2015  austerity  output  gap  productivity  household  debt  public  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  UK  George  Osborne  short-term  Mark  Carney  BOE  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  bond  bubble  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  industrial  policy  STEM  Research  Manufacturing  energy  policy  energy  price  renewable  energy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Tories  Conservative  Party  Toff  Establishment  Privileged  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  reflate  reflation  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  underinvestment  productive  investment  public  investment  business  investment  business  confidence  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  competitive  competition  competitiveness  globalization  globalisation  global  trade  added  value  value  creation  corporate  tax  rate  capital  gains  tax  inequality  Gini  coefficient  poverty  trap  child  poverty  social  mobility  income  mobility  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  pound 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
▶ How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
credit great 4 productive investments 4 the future that will benefit u/me/gov/biz like infrastructure/edu/skills. but waste 4 pure consumption that dont increase productivity in the long run. Like consumer credit spend 2 replace a 2yr old flat screen. vs consumer credit 4 vocational/professional further edu 2 get a higher earning job (future higher income 2 repay the then debt liability & have some more/left over). Bad if u dont have later higher earnings from higher education 2 repay debt & just work in an underemployed placement that any college dropout could do. Thing is, college dropout doesnt have that debt liability that the higher education person has (reduced disposable income bc debt repayment + interest payments.) Women are hit double (gender pay gap) & triple (childcare long-term earnings loss). // min16 income growth important 2 keep up with debt repayment beyond interest. if not, we reached peak long-term debt cycle! // doesnt include globalisation's deflationary effects
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
After the Crisis - Mark Blyth - YouTube
>> what if rise of the banks (deregulation, easy credit, global financial markets - arbitrage, and making money with money) fuelled the growth of the last ~25-30 years. // min 47 3 asset bubbles popped // USA - 40% of corporate profits came from 10% of corporate sector (banks) // 30% of MIT grads went to banks instead of real world engineering and manufacturing. // underwater private sector! via credit bubble: student loans (now 1trn and still rising in USA and UK, future disposable income/discretionary spending lower than babyboomers because of wage stagnation, no wage growth) credit cards, mortgages, heloc (home equity line of credit) --- all will have to focus on paying back debt. // 2015 - us student loans 1.25trn - bit.ly/1KJ29uc + auto loans << bubble to eventually pop when collateral is falling! ie stagnant wages for 10 more years. and more and more cant repay their student loans. // 1:12:00 Bubbles move on; dot.com, real estate (property) & commodities, China,
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer's minimal maternity leave plan prompts dismay | Technology | The Guardian
When she had her son in September 2012, she took two weeks of paid maternity leave, a fraction of what the company allowed. Eight months later and three months after banning telecommuting, Mayer announced more generous maternity benefits at Yahoo. The company doubled maternity leave and now offers new mothers 16 weeks of paid time off. Fathers are offered eight weeks of paid paternity leave. Both parents can take eight weeks in the case of adoption, fostering or surrogacy. [...] There is speculation as to whether another famous technology chief – Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook – will take his company allowance of paternity leave. [...] “Mayer’s announcement is disappointing,” said Anne Weisberg, senior vice-president of the Families and Work Institute in New York. “She’s a role model and I think she should take whatever Yahoo’s parental leave is – the mark of a great leader is that they have a strong team and don’t need to be there all the time themselves. &! vs bit.ly/1VGGunZ
Marissa  Mayer  paternity  leave  maternity  leave  Yahoo!  Leadership  Executive  Team  gender  inequality  work  life  balance  well  being  happiness  index  work  environment  corporate  culture  corporate  values 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Will Oil Cause the Next Recession? - Bloomberg View
[Private Sector could not drive recovery! Stupid. And rising (re-flating) asset prices like stocks did not inspire consumers. The reality on the ground is different than asset prices. Inflation targeting is a policy error in hindsight. Question is if policy makers (fiscal and monetary) as willing to admit this, or drag the world through another lost decade & generation!? ] Most forecasters believe consumers will spend the windfall, and thus boost the economy. But almost all of the savings from lower pump prices so far have been used to rebuild household assets and reduce debt. Consumers tend to increase their savings in tough times; they've been doing so during the six-year recovery, even as real wages and median household incomes remain flat. Lower oil prices, however, could come with a downside. As they work their way through the system, deflation could follow. Already, 10 of the 34 largest economies in the world have seen year-over-year declines in consumer prices. [
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Alibaba Is the Canary in China's Coal Mine - Bloomberg View
It turns out investors were right about Alibaba: No company is more on the front lines of China's economic shifts than Jack Ma's juggernaut. And that's just where the problems begin. [...] After months of putting the entire weight of the government behind saving the market, Beijing appears to have given up. The fallout from that realization will have unpredictable effects on 1.3 billion people indoctrinated to believe Beijing can control any crisis or narrative. As markets swoon and gross domestic product slides, consumers are delaying nonessential purchases. [...] Mass austerity has only just begun. [...] it would be interesting to see how the government responds to "large and widespread investment losses that could lead to a notable negative wealth effect which could weaken consumption, as well as grievances against the authorities." [...] Macau's GDP -26.4% last quarter [...] Chinese gamblers stayed home. [...] Ma created a better quarterly GDP report than Beijing.
Alibaba  China  Jack  Ma  2015  credit  bubble  PBOC  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  hunt  for  yield  speculation  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  margin  trading  leverage  discretionary  spending  Call  Taper  Fed  BOE  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  market  intervention  bond  bubble  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  hubris  irrational  exuberance  western  world  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  savings  glut  correlation  excess  reserves  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  investment  banking  New  Normal  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  BIS  centralbanks  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  short-term  1%  Super  Rich  Privileged  Establishment  Toff  bank  bailout 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Easy Money Creates the Most Dangerous Bubbles - Bloomberg View
[Money has been slushing arnd in markets speculating, not investing in future & productive, added value goods. big companies are flush 2. easy credit is holding zombie corps of the last century over water. western world is persisting 2 put a banking bailout/crisis in the light of a sovereign debt crisis 2 push idealogical austerity. falling way being, never be able 2 catch up with productivity, output gap, STEM, research, future of work, smart grid & infrastructure, retooling their economy 21st century style.] // "speculation in property markets, amplified by mortgage financing, as a persistent central factor driving economic cycles." [...] the worst bubbles -- those that inflict the most economic pain -- tend to involve not just speculation, but a surge in easy lending and increasing leverage. [...] economic downturns following credit bubbles were generally worse and lasted longer. [...] danger of leverage cycle. // [ easy credit & debt fuelled recovery of assets, not fundamentals ]
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why China Had To Crash - Forbes
Private Debt/household debt 2 GDP exceeding 1.5x/150% spells trouble. Chinas pace of Private Debt expansion through credit was unprecedented in % terms compared to any other recent credit bubble (China Put, 2009) on.ft.com/1Ixhw1a // Could now spell balance sheet recession (underwater, servicing debt for worth(less) asset ie stock (+margin trading) or property (inland or overseas)) thus deleveraging of private households. --- Metropolitan property markets across the world have been flooded with speculative money from China & BRIC! Just look at last chart of % of household debt increase bit.ly/1va3oaw Its Russia, China, Brazil, ... // And China banking system & shadow banking system could sit on a lot of NPL coming 2016. Zombie banks in China, ups! PBOC commanded to lend post-2009! // &! bit.ly/1KWkTQY // &! youtu.be/-3aBjFo2Fh4 - Steve Keen (Mar 29, 2015) 'with bad models you can't see shocks coming!'
China  2015  credit  bubble  margin  trading  property  bubble  equity  bubble  asset  allocation  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  PBOC  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  underwater  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  BRIC  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  NPL  zombie  banks  private  debt  household  debt  Steve  Keen 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
(2015) Professor Steve Keen explains why austerity economics is naive - YouTube
youtu.be/-HHJ3q2TxEQ (2014) // Unable 2 sustain long-term economic growth! Next headwind (ie China, Summer pop 2015) could put it back into the ringer! No internal resilience long-term. Gross gov debt still rising & budget (tax income) short-fall enlarged than it would be otherwise. // & talking Schuldenbremse/compulsory budget surplus proposal >> Rising private debt 2 make up of the short-fall of public spending, that is what its institute of fiscal studies has been saying ever since Tories came into Office with its austerity agenda. // The next downturn (private debt rise stop & focus on servicing it/deleveraging + gov keeping austerity agenda) will be even steeper & harder! // On path of stagnation, of western world; how u serve that debt in New Normal of <~2% growth p/a & <2% inflation & <2% inflation expectations!? // &! youtu.be/-3aBjFo2Fh4 // youtu.be/WSfe6uyO5yE & youtu.be/4TTuPwIzFC0 - China "Crash." &! on.ft.com/1Ixhw1a 'Crazy China Crash Possible w contagion'
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth: Austerity - The History of a Dangerous Idea - YouTube
53:00 - EU, UK, USA banking crisis not comparable with Japans eco history. He argues that Japans problems are deeply structural (demographic bubble, culture (savings glut, low propensity of consumption), the state). See book The Evolution of the Modern State & Koos book on Japan 'the holy grail of macroeconomics.' As he explains it, very different 2 EU, UK, USA transfer of banking losses (debt gone sour) onto public gov books via bailout&QE 2 save banking system & the top 30% of society which owns assets. BUT, there is one narrative string that haunts Japan & could haunt EU/UK/USA current living generation; 2 hold back discretionary spending & avoid putting themselves into a debt obligation! This could be underpinned by the Share Economy, econ of abundance, marginal cost & deflation. Minimalism. Anti-consumerism. Not buying a car. Generation Rent not buying a house of flat. Not buying every other year a new TV/Laptop/Phone (despite being commodityish). Who is taking this place?
Mark  Blyth  austerity  Richard  Koo  Japan  lost  generation  lost  decade  cost  of  ownership  savings  rate  debt  servitude  Angst  Millennials  generationy  babyboomers  economic  history  European  Union  UK  USA  recovery  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  Abenomics  structural  imbalance  Impediments  culture 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! bit.ly/1fQ2lcq // &! bloom.bg/1Euf6peh // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
Draghi  Put  ECB  ELA  TLTRO  LTRO  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  distortion  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  MarioDraghi  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trust  devaluation  currency  debasement  currency-war  fiat  currency  trustagent  distrust  Richard  Koo  fiscal  stimulus  austerity  fiscal  policy  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Mark  Blyth  inequality  New  Normal  economic  history  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  output  gap  productivity  UK  Europe  Germany  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  Thomas  Piketty  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  economic  growth  Rechtsruck  SNP  European  Election  2014  UKIP  AfD  NPD  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  babyboomers  Lügenpresse  manufactured  consent  PR  spin  doctor  propaganda  populism  Labour  Party  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  poverty  Gini  poverty  policy  coef 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea - YouTube
faith in capitalism can only be sustained, according to Adam Smith, if we can better ourself (vs winner takes all) & talent diversion into Finance, not Climate Change, STEM, education, sw, hw & rogoff/reinhart called 4 fiscal stimulus in 2014. &! its a banking problem, not overspend, its corporate state (Tories) PR and spin doctors, manufacturing consent, propaganda/populism! change conversation away from banks! // youtu.be/a-8ySh6nUsA // &! The Austerity Delusion - youtu.be/NQGCoiakycQ // &! Is Austerity a Dangerous Idea? - youtu.be/2v8m-J8sgik // &! youtu.be/JQuHSQXxsjM // &! Mackenzie Lecture 2015 - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs // &! After the Financial Crisis: How to Tell the Forest from the Trees - youtu.be/V3FPmu2_J_0 // &! Book Panel 2013 - youtu.be/Xz4FW8GDwG4 - "debt gets cured by growth." & austerity is ideological war on welfare state & class // &! youtu.be/iM2cnMhJZyg // &! youtu.be/in5M65566iw // &! What I Learned and (Un-Learned) at the Financial Crisis - youtu.be/lhldDOp77QA /
austerity  economic  history  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  downward  mobility  inequality  apathy  voter  turnout  crony  capitalism  ideology  dogma  GFC  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Angela  Merkel  Troika  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Conservative  Party  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  UK  Europe  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  lost  generation  lost  decade  Japan  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  unknown  unkown  Taper  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  Thomas  Piketty  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  sovereign  debt  crisis  deleveraging  Richard  Koo  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  industrial  policy  Revolution  2.0  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  globalisation  globalization  Eurogroup  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  reflate  recovery  reflation  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  BOE  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  short-term  Career  Politicians  political  theory  social  contract  Gesellschaft  No  Representation  Rechtsruck  stagnation  social 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Krise ǀ Weimar reloaded — der Freitag
Das Land befindet sich schon mitten in der Depression und schuld daran sind hohe Lohnkosten und üppige Sozialpolitik. Helfen können dagegen nur Lohn-, Preis- und Budgetkürzungen. Was sich liest wie eine Mainstream-Diagnose des heutigen Europas, ist tatsächlich der Inhalt eines Artikels aus dem März 1929. Er erschien im Deutschen Volkswirt, einem damaligen Fachblatt der liberalen Ökonomie. Der Autor war kein Geringerer als Joseph Schumpeter. Was er vorschlug, ist später als die berüchtigte Deflationspolitik des bis Mai 1932 amtierenden Reichskanzlers Heinrich Brüning bekannt geworden. [ can solve debt overhang w austerity, >> is deflationary, stagnant balance sheet or shrinking, thus increases debt 2 gdp/asset ratio ] [...] den „Ruin Mitteleuropas“ zu verantworten.
austerity  economic  history  Weimar  Treaty  of  Versailles  deflationary  deflation  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  Greece  Richard  Koo  Germany  Wolfgang  Schäuble  GroKo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  balance  sheet  recession  neoliberalism  neoliberal  sovereign  crisis  Europe  George  Osborne  UK  IMF  Weimarer  Republik  Troika  Umschuldung  jubilee  restructuring  PIGS  PIIGS  PIIGSFB  European  Union  Eurogroup  technocrat  John  Maynard  Keynes  carmenreinhart  KennethRogoff  Thomas  Piketty  Yanis  Varoufakis  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  Weimar  Republic  European 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Arbeitsbedingungen ǀ Der eigentliche Skandal ist ein anderer — der Freitag
Amazon verfolgt lediglich eine Strategie. Doch all das ist gar nicht so entscheidend, denn auch wenn der Artikel ein schockierendes Firmenbild aufzeigt, kann man dem Unternehmen daraus __nur bedingt einen Vorwurf machen. Letztendlich befindet sich Amazon in einem harten Konkurrenzkampf__ und versucht daher die leistungsfähigsten Mitarbeiter zu gewinnen und zu behalten – weniger leistungsstarke Mitarbeiter kann man dagegen nicht gebrauchen. Diese Strategie ist in großen Erfolgsunternehmen kein Einzelfall, sondern Normalität. [...] Der eigentliche Skandal sind die Logistikzentren
Amazon  competitive  competition  e-commerce  commodity  business  commoditization  margin  Jeff  Bezos  monopoly  monopsony  oligopol  oligopoly  Google  Shopping  Silicon  Valley  HR  human  resources  corporate  culture  corporate  values  identity  White-collar  Worker  Blue-collar  Worker  work  environment  workplace  beyond  workplace  drama  work  life  balance 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Descape: Ein Praktikum, das Geld kostet, bietet ein Berliner Start-Up - Videos - DIE WELT
Angeblich möchte die "Generation Y" keine Karriere, sondern Sinn im Job finden. Genau das aber verweigert ihr oft die moderne Arbeitswelt. Ein Berliner Startup will dafür einen Ausweg gefunden haben. Descape. // // need outside influence, change of environment, scenery, downtime, exposure, intense learning/reading for a day. for eureka moments!
4-day  work  week  identity  work  life  balance  life  hacker  life  lesson  corporate  culture  corporate  values  HR  human  resources  recruiting  recruitment  self-awareness  Millennials  generationy  self-actualization  Maslow  well  being  happiness  index  creative  creativity  work  environment  environment  eureka 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
What to Make of Amazon's Work Practices? | Bothsides of the Table
It’s best encapsulated in a famous Jeff Bezos quote, “You can work long, hard or smart, but at Amazon.com you can’t choose two out of three,” [...] Try working at Goldman Sachs, [...] You think it’s different at any of the top consulting firms? [...] You see organizations like these thrive on large pools of some of the country’s best and brightest graduates that trade off 2-5 years of work experience under extreme pressure in exchange for skills, experiences & relationships that will last a lifetime. [Accelerated Learning] [...] Think its a cake walk working @ any of the countries top law firms? [...] Should we do an article on what it’s like to be a medical resident? How abt working in the US military? Chief of Staff for a major political figure? What abt a top athlete in the NFL or NBA or even part of the coaching staff. Think they dont have work/life balance challenges in a field theyve chosen to work in? [#Top 100 of X vs avg white- or blue-collar worker ] [what u optimize for?]
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Jeremy Corbyn wins economists’ backing for anti-austerity policies | Politics | The Guardian
In the letter to which David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee is a signatory, the economists write: “The accusation is widely made that Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters have moved to the extreme left on economic policy. But this is not supported by the candidate’s statements or policies. His opposition to austerity is actually mainstream economics, even backed by the conservative IMF. He aims to boost growth and prosperity.” // UK can't compete with energy rich countries - ie through rebuilding (through subsidies) its industrial and manufacturing sector - it has to add value through expert services, knowledge, digital, research to existing products goods and services that then can be re-sold across the world - high energy cost, expensive transport through lack of infrastructure of the future, and lack of in-pipeline educated mobile youngster, is a structural deficit.
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
How China's economic slowdown could weigh on the rest of the world | World news | The Guardian
[debt fuelled recovery ] // In the year to July, China's customs agency reports that imports from Australia are down by $15bn dollars on the same period last year - a loss which is already equal to 1% of Australia's GDP, and many other countries stand to lose out to similar degrees. China's imports overall are down by 14.6% over 2015. Find out what happens if this decline continues for the rest of the year - or worsens - and how that loss compares to each country's GDP
China  2015  Europe  USA  globalization  visualisation  visualization  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  faultlines  IMF  OECD  Developing  World  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  trade  deficit  trade  balance  economic  history  GFC  reflate  reflation  recovery  economic  damage  economic  model  macroeconomic  policy  economic  growth  complexity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  developed 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
El-Erian: This Is Not 1998 or 2008 - YouTube
it is a repricing. a correction. prices got too far away (reflation of equity & co through ZIRP, NIRP, QE, speeches, plus hunt for yield & FOMO). It just happened to be China being the trigger, the wake-up call - very loud wake-up call - bc of its economic size and heft. (taper talks 2015 that made equity already nervous, and bond holders too, was too timid). Reality check. // Was it justified, yes. // In the long-run, we are all dead. And in the long-run things will, eventually, correct itself. // People may take now into account a new normal, lower interest rate environment, lower global growth, lower yields, lower inflationary pressures, lower dividend payments, more work that corporates (crony capitalism) need to do to squeeze out that earnings growth especially in the western world. inequality - low wage growth/stagnation - less discretionary spending on non-essential items (in the western world). & "realization that policy tools were less effective". &! bv.ms/1NFsFUn
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
#mediabuzz | Howard Kurtz | Fox News
Amazon a cyber-sweatshop? SARAH LACY praised the New York Times reporting on Amazon: "When you freak out the tech world, you're a powerful news organization." // "brutally efficient" 'white and blue collar jobs being exposed to the same treatment manual work and service sector jobs have been treated by competition and globalisation (flat and borderless world), for the last +30 years. "it's what you don't say and how it gets interpreted down the line." // Investigative Journalism! NYT (paper), a institution, a stalwart of investigative journalism, reporting, holding companies and people accountable, .... same along the line of bit.ly/1NRsG5N - One overlooked theme emerging from the Times’s Amazon story is the power of the paper itself. // this story underlines, is a data point in time, you can look back on. and say the world went this way such and such // competing on price is the easiest thing to do! the first thing in reach! its about the hard things that actually leverage/multiplier
Amazon  Apple  journalismus  investigative  journalism  journalism  NYT  NYTimes  New  York  Times  Blue-collar  Worker  White-collar  Worker  knowledge  economy  knowledge  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  career  ladder  career  advice  well  being  environment  life  balance  Silicon  Valley  commodity  business  commoditization  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  precarious  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  competitive  competitiveness  Workers  Union  Sarah  Lacy  Jeff  Bezos  corporate  culture  corporate  values  quantified  self  accountability  oversight  democracy  corporate  media  Seth  Godin  Purple  Cow  being  remarkable  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  marketplace  efficiencies  1099  Gig  freelancing  freelance  labour  market  manual  labour  Niedriglohnsektor  Precariat  Leiharbeit  lohndumping  Lohnzurückhaltung  Zeitarbeit  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  job  market  job  creation  short-term  thinking 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Crash bei Dax und Dow: Das war's mit Illusion Nummer drei - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Solange die Weltwirtschaft brummt, kann eine einzelne Volkswirtschaft ihre Währung so lange abwerten, bis sie wieder wettbewerbsfähig ist und der Aufschwung fast von alleine kommt. Globale Krisen funktionieren anders. Die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt kann nicht abwerten. Sie kann nur produktiver werden, aber nicht wettbewerbsfähiger. Da alle großen Wirtschaftsregionen der Welt - USA, Euroraum, Russland, China, Japan und Südostasien - ihre Mega-Krisen in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten hatten, gibt es auch keinen Unversehrten mehr, der die Rolle einer weltwirtschaftlichen Lokomotive übernehmen könnte. Das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft verlangsamt sich somit stetig. [...] Die fetten Jahre sind vorbei [...] [ Share buyback was hot in 2014/15 till now ] [...] Die Verschiebung der Macht von Arbeit zu Kapital schreitet nicht weiter fort. [ low interest rate environment bc low capital returns, new Millennials have to serve now this debt burden and can't hope to inflate it away. & stagnant wages! ]
IMF  OECD  global  economy  global  trade  globalisation  global  imbalances  globalization  borderless  flat  world  GFC  dot.com  recovery  reflate  reflation  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  economic  history  austerity  2015  China  USA  UK  Europe  savings  glut  structural  imbalance  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  output  gap  participation  rate  productivity  Great  Moderation  New  Normal  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  inflation  expectation  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  energy  price  OPEC  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  share  buyback  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  public  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  M&A  mainstreet.org  crony  capitalism  exploitation  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  capitalism  bank  bailout  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  political  theory  structural  unemployment  Impediments  faultlines  policy  social  l 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Amazon's Culture: Toxic or Just Tough? by The Jay & Farhad Show
Hello! This week, Farhad Manjoo (New York Times) and Jay Yarow (Business Insider) are joined by special guest Jodi Kantor (New York Times) to discuss her polarizing article about Amazon's culture. // // how technology functions in the workplace - efficiency, quantified self << the feedback tool you can always use, what ever your state of emotion, gripe, stick, bias, prejudice, ... feudal Darwinism creeps into knowledge worker, white-collar and blue-collar workers, MBA's and PhD's. [...] contributes to gender inequality (women with the back on their wall, leave or get started and forget about family & kids, life.) [...] brutal years are NOT Tour of Duty - Reid Hoffman The Alliance. // PS: Reed Hastings (Netflix) Culture document transpires that it is expected to contribute, even if it doesn't spell it out. Netflix also had to fight and overcome as much as Amazon! Proves again that internal & external environment a company finds itself affects its values & culture inevitable [Thesis].
Amazon  corporate  culture  corporate  values  HR  human  resources  ethical  machine  Silicon  Valley  quantified  self  marketplace  efficiencies  workplace  beyond  workplace  drama  work  environment  chronic  stress  Office  Politics  worklife  well  being  happiness  index  crony  capitalism  capitalism  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  work  life  balance  performance  review  Jeff  Bezos  people  management  team  management  gender  inequality  book  Netflix  Reid  Hoffman  Reed  Hastings  linkedin  The  Alliance  Start-up  of  You  competitive  competition  competitiveness  Alibaba  Google  Facebook  China  Japan  culture  society  peer  pressure  sustainability  sustainable  lesson  advice  war  for  talent  benefits  perks  4-day  work  week  glass  ceiling  glass  cliff  diversity  human  capital  workforce  hiring  recruiting  recruitment  personal  values  Leadership  CEO  business  management  management 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
[ AMAZON's culture ] by USA TODAY Tech (podcast)
Amazon, Silicon Valley, Unicorns and Decacorns - go go go even for broke. making things happen. winning the category. // vs Google and Facebook are those that won sort of automatically and had not that much internal and external pressure growing up. had not to fight surviving dot.com crash. Facebook sort of became a self-runner despite of its many missteps. Amazon had to fight all the way, and still has to fight because now it faces antitrust on both sides of the Atlantic. That creates, inadvertently, a specific culture that has been cited by personal examples in the NYT piece.
Amazon  Silicon  Valley  Unicorn  Decacorn  corporate  culture  corporate  values  work  environment  environment  perks  benefits  beyond  workplace  drama  Office  Politics  career  ladder  career  advice  Leadership  CEO  Jeff  Bezos  Millennials  peer  pressure  people  management  business  management  team  management  HR  human  resources  hiring  burnout  chronic  stress  stress  work  life  balance  workplace 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Wirtschaftslage: Ungebremst in die nächste Krise - SPIEGEL ONLINE
So instabil, wie die Lage ist, bedarf es womöglich nur eines vergleichsweise kleinen Anstoßes, um die nächste Krise auszulösen. Und was passiert dann? [...] Kaum noch Spielräume, nirgends. Weder die Finanzpolitik noch die Zinspolitik kann bei einem erneuten Abschwung viel ausrichten. Das gilt auch für die Schwellenländer: Russland & Brasilien mühen sich, ihre Zahlungsfähigkeit zu sichern. Sogar Saudi-Arabien muss sich im Ausland verschulden. China's [...] Kapitalmarktblase aufgebläht und leidet nun unter einer der höchsten privatwirtschaftlichen Verschuldungsquoten aller Emerging Markets. Die ernsten Schwierigkeiten, vor denen die Volksrepublik steht, zeichnen sich bereits seit Langem ab. [...] Japan ist dann überall. [debt fuelled recovery (fiscal stimulus) that always were. now we have austerity & the "recovery" reflects that. plus deflationary effects; further globalisation, flat borderless world, technology, commoditisation of XYZ, future consumer (growth) not in the west!, etc]
UK  USA  Europe  recovery  2015  Taper  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  austerity  OECD  IMF  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BIS  Japan  China  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  secular  stagnation  lost  decade  lost  generation  Abenomics  fiscal  stimulus  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  Oil  price  OPEC  deflationary  deflation  currency  war  currency  debasement  hunt  for  yield  distortion  bank  bailout  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  globalization  globalisation  flat  world  borderless  inflation  expectation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  Developing  Frontier  Markets 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan's economy shrinks by 0.4% in a blow for 'Abenomics' growth plan | World news | The Guardian
the country’s main Nikkei stock market index was up strongly by 0.6% as investors expected the government to unleash more monetary stimulus. “Should growth remain sluggish for another quarter and inflation expectations start to fall, the odds of additional monetary easing would increase substantially,” analysts at DBS said in a commentary. Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of Japan’s GDP, fell 0.8%, as exports dropped 4.4%. “The sharp plunge from the previous quarter’s surprise growth was partly due to disappointing demand for Japanese products in the US, Chinese and other resource-exporting markets,” SMBC Nikko Securities said in a commentary. “Sluggish wage growth and bad weather drove down consumption at home,” it added. // no demand led recovery. debt fuelled recovery! little is fixed thus nothing (kogs) fits and runs by itself as one would expect. // [...] convincing people to splash out on consumer goods has been a struggle
equity  bubble  BOJ  Abenomics  China  2015  western  world  developed  world  Taper  QE  NIRP  ZIRP  economic  history  global  economy  global  trade  Europe  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Yen  Richard  Koo  Oil  price  OPEC  energy  price  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  GFC  trickle-down  economics  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  capitalism  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  bank  bailout  bailout  microeconomic  policy  microeconomics  behavioral  finance  deleveraging  debt  servitude  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Psychology  sociology  savings  rate  uncertainty  insecurity 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's Devaluation Becomes Japan's Problem - Bloomberg View
The worsening economy, which voters hoped Abe would have sorted out by now, doesn't help. Inflation-adjusted wages dropped 2.9 percent in June, a sign Monday's second-quarter gross domestic product report for the may be truly ugly. [...] After 961 days, all Abenomics has really achieved is a sharply weaker yen, modest steps to tighten corporate governance and marketing slogans asking companies to hire more women. [...] If Japan offers a cautionary tale, it's that weaker currency alone isn't the answer. If Abe had used the yen's 35 percent plunge since late 2012 to good effect -- passing big reforms on labor flexibility, import tariffs, tax policy, supporting startups, reducing red tape -- Japan might not be facing the prospect of another recession. [ Japan's experience is a red flashing warning light for UK, US and especially Germany. ie uncompetitive Zombie corporations held alive with NIRP, ZIRP, and future new normal low interest rate environment. Where is growth? Silicon Valley. ]
Japan  economic  history  Abenomics  BOJ  2015  China  Yuan  RMB  currency  debasement  currency  war  devaluation  fiscal  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  policy  deflationary  deflation  globalisation  globalization  secular  stagnation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Makers  competitive  competitiveness  Exportweltmeister  competitive  advantage  competition  flat  world  New  Normal  Richard  Koo  Developing  Frontier  Markets  borderless  global  trade  global  economy  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  financial  crisis  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombi  banks  creative  destruction  Silicon  Valley  technological  progress  skill-biased  technological  change  Software  Is  Eating  The  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Future  of  Work  deleveraging  asset  bubble  Wall  Street  reflation  reflate  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  inflation  targeting  Fed  BOE  PBOC  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Greenspan: Be Afraid of Pending Bubble in Bond Market - Bloomberg Business
what is the new normal interest rate? // 7min long bloom.bg/1gteMeO - UK and USA productivity (levels at rate of zero growth) and output gap, capital investment inadequate - into unproductive investment bc of hunt for yield, bc of outlook of secular stagnation for western world and structural impediments, imbalances, and faultlines, and also because of fiscal and political uncertainty, and demographic bubble and ageing population in western world. future customers/consumers are not in western world, they are to be found right now in the developing world and frontier markets. // we are currently in an environment where we don't know what the new normal interest rate is, because of distortions and incomplete information:
Taber  bond  bubble  2015  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  recovery  globalisation  globalization  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  competition  competitive  competitiveness  borderless  flat  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  western  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  technological  progress  creative  destruction  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  STEM  developed  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  economic  history  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  Group  behaviour  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  financial  incentive  incentive  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  incomplete  information  complexity  OPEC  Europe 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Unseen Consequences of Zero-Interest-Rate Policy
distortion of asset allocation (mal-investment, investment in less productive areas for the economy) and risk appetite by pressure - hunt for yield. keeping zombie banks, consumers, and corporate alive by enabeling to rolling over their debt and even go further out on the time axis (long-term bonds/increase overall maturity of your debt - when it has to be repaid), incentive to buy on cheap credit, instead savings, delay of fiscal, economic, political reform by the given artificial time window (see lack of industrial, manufacturing, education, STEM policy/vision of UK) >> and false impression that austerity works great! // and as Richard Koo in one of his recent presentations (for his new book) said - Fed does not know how Taper will unfold, especially the problematic thing of long-dated bonds on their books and how to get them into the market.
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  Richard  Koo  economic  history  academia  academics  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  recovery  GFC  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  2015  distortion  productive  investment  financial  repression  financial  literacy  economic  damage  Group  behaviour  behavioral  economics  savings  rate  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  savings  glut  structural  deficit  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  austerity  Makers  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  policy  folly  policy  error  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  Abenomics  lost  decade  lost  generation  BOE  liquidity  trap 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
UK interest rate rises - waiting for lift-off | Business | The Guardian
In 2018 – by when, bear in mind, most of the work of austerity is expected to have been done – Miles calculates that fiscal consolidation will still drag interest rates downwards by more than 0.75% compared to what would otherwise be the case. This is one of the factors explaining the (commonly held) assumption that interest rates will approach a “new normal” over the next few years that is likely to be about half as high as the 5% that prevailed pre-financial crisis. Even in the second half of the parliament this “fiscal headwind” will still be blowing strong. [...] The case for introducing more transparency isn’t mere technocratic trimming. The balance struck between monetary and fiscal policy has big consequences. There are obvious distributional implications (all else equal, mortgage holders win; savers lose). There are ramifications too for the capital allocation process, the current account, and the risk of an asset-bubble. The list goes on: the macro-mix matters.
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
STEPHANIE FLANDERS: It's borrowing and debt driving Britain's recovery | This is Money
New forecasts that went with his speech paint a different picture, of a recovery driven in large part by households borrowing more, and saving less. The level of household debt, relative to income, has been falling since the crisis, as families have cut back and worked to pay off debt. But the new Budget forecasts show it starting to rise again, from the final quarter of this year, moving from 142 per cent of income back up to 166 per cent by 2019. That’s more or less where household debt had got to in the lead up to the financial crisis, after all that irresponsible ‘debt fuelled growth’ under Gordon Brown. [...]And total level of investment is now more than 20 per cent below where it was at the start of 2008. // &! bit.ly/1IxXKax - low inflation, no inflation pressures expected till 2016 // &! bit.ly/1DepsJ2 - The UK has the most unbalanced economy of any OECD country.
2015  recovery  UK  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt-fuelled  recovery  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  growth  economic  multiplier  productive  investment  asset  allocation  distortion  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  current  account  deficit  savings  rate  debt  servitude  household  debt  mortgage  market  Taper  credit  card  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  public  debt  private  debt  debt  bubble  NPL  Makers  Manufacturing  STEM  George  Osborne  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  David  Cameron  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  fiscal  stimulus  IMF  OECD  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  social  mobility  downward  mobility  Gini  coefficient  fairness  policy  error  policy  folly  interest  groups  democracy  social  tension  social  cohesion  budget2015  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  competitiveness  competitive  flat  world  borderless  global  trade  structural  imbalance  Impediments  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  disinflation  inflation  Mark  Carney  BOE  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  economic  history  faultlines  global  imbalances  industrial  policy  output  gap  productivity 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Royal Dutch Shell cuts 6,500 jobs - BBC News
Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell has announced it has shed 6,500 jobs as part of cost-cutting plans as it seeks to counter falling oil prices. // &! bbc.in/1OPYI2I - British Gas owner Centrica cuts 6,000 jobs [...] However, the strong performance at British Gas was offset by a collapse in profits at Centrica's oil and gas production division. Profits in this unit fell 78% to £116m as a result of lower oil prices. [...] Centrica appointed Iain Conn as chief executive at the start of this year. He has been conducting a strategic review of the business over the past five months, which has concluded Centrica should concentrate on the British Gas side of the business and reduce its activities in actual energy production, which takes major investment. That is a less attractive business currently, as raw energy costs, such as oil, are around $50-60 a barrel, half the levels of last year. Centrica said it was assuming the oil price would not move far from that for the foreseeable future.
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Sorry to burst your bubble | The Economist
bit.ly/1IfX0s9 // "According to two new papers, the crucial variable that separates relatively harmless frenzies from disastrous ones is debt." // see China Stock Market leverage pop mid 2015 - with its huge rise in margin debt trading ... money which was flowing out of the property market into the Stock Market // // &! so if it is about debt - UK mortgage market & consumer/private debt of all kind (loans and credit card debt) does qualify as they took up what was cut by austerity. Plus the Supply Demand distortion, with new builds/project at a decades lowest. // Question for China. The China problem. Can they make their system sustainable before it will crush everyone. // The most obvious is China. But the next one will be different & greater than all came before. Period. Still, UK had not a housing bubble collapse on its own making. Only through endogenous circumstances. UK recession as UK economy runs mostly on consumer sector & debt) bit.ly/1OpClSO bit.ly/1wQITjb bit.ly/1SycLtY
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
The euro is a disaster even for the countries that do everything right - The Washington Post
bit.ly/1MgKt7O // fiscal policy is restricted. can't run higher deficit than 3%. makes for little wiggle room especially after something like the GFC. Germany post GFC even went so far as to implement a national/local municipal "Schuldenbremse" to put in law to never spend again more money than they take in, on a municipal level.
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
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