asterisk2a + unicorn   70

The Growth Trap
[ growing for growth sake! vs growing in a world/area that is not conducive to grow ] When Twitter went public in 2013, its stock soared and its value jumped to $25 billion. Its founders and early investors got rich. But since then, the company has been considered a failure, despite the fact that it boasts 320 million active users, because it's not growing fast enough. Douglas Rushkoff, author of "Throwing Rocks at the Google Bus: How Growth Became the Enemy of Prosperity," talks to Steve Paikin about why he sees the push for more growth as dangerous. // true capitalists (shareholder, crony, greedy) w/o self-regulation or governance extract all the value there is to extract and then leave, dispersing it to the few who already have [...] WE MUST REWRITE THE RULES OF THE GROWTH GAME ITSELF! [...] you want to optimise the economy based on velocity of money (circulation of money), not share price and value extraction [...]
Venture  Capital  Unicorn  shareholder  capitalism  Greed  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Wall  Street  Wall  Street  activists  Yahoo!  Google  Inc.  Alphabet  Inc.  Microsoft  IBM  Intel  Oracle  capitalism  exploitation  Super  Rich  short-termism  short-term  thinking  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  M&A  economic  growth  growth  round  Mutual  Fund  macroeconomic  policy  secular  stagnation  Private  Equity  MBO  Pivot  IPO  dividends  prosperity  Start-Ups  Start-up  s&p500  pension  scheme  pension  finite  resources  resource  depletion  economic  history  creative  destruction  share  buyback  Apple  capitalism  in  crisis  capitalist  Uber  monopoly  oligopol  oligopoly  antitrust  corruption  western  world  squeezed  middle  class  emerging  middle  class  BRIC  business  cycle  company  book  cost  center  overhead  costcutting  operating  performance  operating  margin  globalisation  globalization  Universal  Basic  Income  artificial  intelligence  AI  augmented  intelligence  Robotics  automation  structural  unemployment  materialism  consumerism  status  anxiety  disenfranchise  disenfranchised  youth  unemployment  post-capitalism  Mobile  Banlieue  deprivation  poverty  trap  poverty  meritocracy  meritocratic  Gini  value  coefficie 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
The tech industry has cut a Google’s worth of jobs in the past 12 months
bigger companies, more profitable products, with less people. // “It would be wrong to assume that increased job cuts are a sign of weakness in the tech sector,” Challenger, Gray & Christmas CEO John Challenger said in a statement. “The simple fact is that the industry is going through a transformation and companies either have to shift their focus or risk extinction. We will always need technology, but how we interact with it, as well as where and when we interact with it, are changing rapidly.” //&! http://recode.net/2016/04/19/intel-chipmaker-mobile-earnings-restructuring/ - Intel missed the mobile revolution. Now it faces its day of reckoning.
Silicon  Valley  Unicorn  Instagram  WhatsApp  productivity  Software  Eats  The  World  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Software  Revolution  Software  Development  Slack  Facebook  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  winner  take  all  IBM  Intel  Microsoft  Salesforce  antitrust  overhead  cost  center  AWS  cloudcomputing  Cloudstorage  Netflix  Amazon  Azure  Google  Cloud  Google  Inc.  Alphabet  Inc.  Oracle  Mobile  Creative  scalability  scaling  scale  Snapchat  Twitter  Apple  automation  robotics  AI  artificial  intelligence  3D  printing  autonomous  cars  self-driving  cars  labour  market  job  market  skill  gap  skills  gap  homescreen 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
GoPro Isn’t Doomed Yet. But they must become a software company, fast.
GoPro needed to spend heavily in “video editing automation.”
GoPro needs software in spades, far beyond just something to make editing easier. The company that created the first mass-market visceral experience broadcasting device ought to have a hand in every dimension of the current live revolution, not just be one of its few cameras. That requires software. [...] Most consumers already have all the hardware they need to create video; what they need is software to make this infinity of images comprehensible. As the defensibility of hardware declines, GoPro has an advantage few other makers of software have: fans, tens or even hundreds of millions of them.
Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Software  Eats  The  World  commoditization  commodity  business  Brand  Canon  Nikon  Kodak  Instagram  Beme  Vine  Snapchat  Entertainment  Selbstdarstellung  streaming  Twitch  Periscope  Meerkat  virtual  reality  VR  Augmented  Android  iPhone  Apple  premium  aspiration  status  anxiety  consumerism  materialism  mass  market  Pop  Culture  Hardware  Unicorn  DJI  Drone  Consumer  App  Consumer  Software  video  editing  Vlog  Vlogging 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Börsenpläne von Spotify: Der Sound der Zocker
Eine Milliarde Dollar (880 Millionen Euro) leiht sich der Musikdienst laut "Wall Street Journal" bei Finanzinvestoren und der Großbank Goldman Sachs. Spotify verspricht den Geldgebern neben Zinszahlungen auch Anteile am Unternehmen. Wie viel Spotify zahlen muss und in welcher Größenordnung Anteile den Besitzer wechseln, hängt davon ab, wann die Schweden an die Börse gehen. Mit jedem Halbjahr, in dem das Start-up die Erstemission herauszögert, wird es jedenfalls teurer.

Das macht den Deal hochriskant für Spotify: Von Profitabilität ist der Dienst weit entfernt, 2014 fuhr der Dienst einen Verlust von 162 Millionen Euro ein. Die neuen Schulden könnten das Unternehmen in einen ruinösen Strudel von schrumpfenden Geldreserven, drückender Zinslast und immer mieseren Börsenaussichten reißen. [...] [ M&A out of question ] &! bit.ly/1MYHBK4 &! on.recode.net/1oo4GQ1
Spotify  IPO  growth  round  Private  Equity  Goldman  Sachs  liquidation  preferences  termsheet  Box  Aaron  Levie  Apple  Music  Apple  Google  Inc.  Google  Play  Music  Google  Play  Amazon  Prime  Amazon  M&A  Soundcloud  Deezer  Rdio  Pandora  Microsoft  Venture  Capital  Unicorn  business  model  subscription  model  freemium 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
The "Tourist" Investors Flooding Silicon Valley With Money Will Go Home One Day - BuzzFeed News
The tourist analogy comes from Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at the German financial company Allianz and former CEO of mutual fund giant Pimco. He fleshes out his theory of “tourist dollars” in his new book, The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse, describing what happens in emerging economies like Brazil and India when investors from the developed world respond to slow economies at home by seeking more profitable climates abroad. Ranjan Roy, a former emerging-market currencies trader who now runs a tech startup, wrote a Medium post this week connecting El-Erian’s “tourist” theory to the mutual fund investors that have flooded Silicon Valley with cash in recent years. The post was pretty convincing, so we decided to see if El-Erian agreed. He does. And he worries about what those tourist dollars are doing to the locals. [...] they don’t re-up [ like VC's and real Angels would do ] [...] push to stretch for return.
hunt  for  yield  distortion  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Silicon  Valley  Party  Round  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hot-money  Mutual  Fund  growth  risk  capital  Venture  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  2015  2016  2014  Unicorn  reflate  reflation  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  India  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  psychology  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Richard  Koo 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Zenefits: Were the Valley's kingmakers wrong, or did they just lie?
bzfd.it/1muzgqt // Earlier that same day he was forced to resign, not only from the company but also from its board of directors. Conrad’s resignation followed revelations that Zenefits acted as insurance brokers in at least seven states despite lacking the licenses to do so. Buzzfeed has been following the scandal closely, and we covered it here on Pando. //&! Zenefits was under serious pressure to generate impressive financial numbers. Last May, just over two years after Zenefits launched, the company raised $500 million in a funding round that valued it at $4.5 billion. Sales reps — even those without necessary licenses — were directed to work the phones to meet ambitious quotas. - bzfd.it/1o247vE //&! on.recode.net/1SKhaPP
Zenefits  growth  round  Unicorn  self-regulation  compliance  governance 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Pando: Two slides that could predict a worse quarter for venture capital is coming
All of 2015’s totals lived and died on mega-deals. Mega-deals were the reason that the total amount invested in the year was one of the highest on record, even though the actual number of deals fell. It’s the reason the fourth quarter’s venture capital total fell so sharply when mega deals declined some 45%. //&! As America faces the techpocalypse, how are things going in Europe? - bit.ly/1ndNFZt //&! If Doordash is struggling to close funding with Sequoia as a lead, how bad are things at your startup? - bit.ly/1njD8v9 - Doordash is a fundable company, just not at the prices originally discussed… and maybe not even at $600 million. //&! Asian venture capital in 2016: This could get ugly… - It has the farthest to fall, and the newest investors - bit.ly/1Pg8vla
growth  round  Venture  Capital  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Silicon  Valley  Private  Equity  Mutual  Fund  Angel  Investor  Seed  Party  Private  Market  Hype  Cycle  Unicorn  China  credit  bubble  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  QT  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  mobile  homescreen 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Pando: Unicorns on fire: Funding falls dramatically in the fourth quarter, along with exits of all kinds
I predicted the second quarter of 2015 had to be peak mega round. Turns out, I was three months off. But now it’s official: The shit is hitting the fan. [...] In the third quarter, venture funding hit dot com funding levels with 2008 deals and $38.7 billion raised. In the fourth quarter, we saw the lowest deal tally since 2013, with just 1743 deals raising some $27.3 billion.
IPO  Unicorn  growth  round  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Private  Market  Wall  Street  Fed  monetary  policy  USA  China  business  confidence  Silicon  Valley  Hype  Cycle  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  Private  Equity  Mutual  Fund  SPV  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Oil  price  QT 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
When a Unicorn Start-Up Stumbles, Its Employees Get Hurt - The New York Times
Just how punishing that price was became clear in late September. In an investor document about the sale that was distributed to shareholders, employees discovered their Good stock was valued at 44 cents a share, down from $4.32 a year earlier. In contrast, preferred stock owned by Good’s venture capitalists was worth almost seven times as much, more than $3 a share. The paperwork also showed that Good’s board had turned down an $825 million cash offer just six months earlier, in March. // via https://redd.it/3yehai
Unicorn  liquidation  preferences  Venture  Capital  termsheet  Start-Up  advice  Start-Up  lesson  downround  Private  Equity 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
The True Impact Of The Snapchat Writedown For Entrepreneurs | TechCrunch
Snapchat is worth a lot less this month than it was last month. Fidelity, one of tech’s most active late-stage cross-over investors, recently decided that Snapchat is worth about $23/share, instead of the $30/share initially estimated. It’s part of an ongoing trend of cross-over investors trying to figure out exactly what unicorns are worth. But what does that mean for the average entrepreneur? Not much. The bubble didn’t pop. It just landed back on our planet. The best thing you can do for yourself, your company, and your future investors is build a business that works in real life.
Snapchat  Unicorn  Silicon  Valley  Venture  Capital  growth  round  hunt  for  yield 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Benchmark’s Venture Capitalist Gurley: ‘Private Valuations Are Fake’ | Re/code
“Unicorns have priced themselves out of the public market,” said Gurley, adding that the valuations are “all on paper. It’s all a myth.” He issued a call for startups to return to business fundamentals. “We need to refocus on building real businesses that are sustainable,” Gurley said. “I personally wish the market would bring them all down so that we could get to a more sane place.”
Unicorn  distortion  Private  Market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  Silicon  Valley  valuation  Bill  Gurley  a16z  Marc  Andreessen 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: Your biennial reminder that hype is a drug
"Hype is a drug. As the entepreneur you can't resist it. But as the entrepreneur it'll bite you in the ass every time. So if you choose to build your company on hype, you're going to have to live with the consequences." // & cheerleading squadron that sits inside the bubble & transmits signals 2 the outside world is not helping these companies 2 dampen down 'just reporting'. There are rarely if, buts, question marks, demand for numbers, critical journalism, viability and sustainability questions, ... there is no journalism. and forget investigative journalism that could break another Techopus. Its also fuelled by the way established companies handle their PR. treat journalists. off the record practise, invites, dont tell anybody else, u didnt hear that from me, here is the invite 4 that special even for special people, ego stroking techniques. feeding ground for insular environment. //&! Fancy office (phony display of success) w A Round money 4 no revenue plan product &JUST BUY GROWTH!
Fred  Wilson  Hype  Cycle  Start-Up  advice  Start-Up  lesson  Unicorn  Venture  Capital  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  distortion  downround  Silicon  Valley 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Option Games: Common Stock Values Get Murkier — The Information
Valuing common stock has gotten trickier for startups. The growing number and complexity of rights on preferred shares are causing companies to adjust their reasoning around how much their common stock is worth, according to firms providing the valuations and lawyers overseeing them. But companies still have a lot of discretion, a reminder that how startups calculate their value frequently bears little relation to big funding headlines. [...] Valuations of startup firms’ common stock for employee option grants has been complicated by increasing complexity of rights on preferred stock and secondary market transactions. [...] [ !!! Snapchat offered common stock only in recent (May 2015) investment, Alibaba & two hedge funds were ok with it. But further termsheet details (liquidation preferences) unknown. Existing holders of common stock (employees) could be diluted massively, in future, ie Snapchat has a down round in the future/eventual IPO - on.wsj.com/1KICv8H &! bit.ly/1iiJw3G ]
cap  table  liquidation  preferences  common  stock  employee  option  grants  Start-Up  advice  Start-Up  lesson  HR  human  resources  compensation  package  valuation  Unicorn  Decacorn  preferred  stock  termsheet  Venture  Capital 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Venture capitalists have Dying Unicorn lists. But they won't share 'em - Fortune
don't you reduce risk with each VC round raised? // Venture capitalists say startups are taking on too much risk, and a shakeout is inevitable. But they’re not saying who will be shaken out.
Unicorn  growth  round  Venture  Capital  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Not All Unicorns Are Created Equal | Re/code
A “brick” unicorn doesn’t need to rely on conceptual thinking (like straw), or a set of projection data (like stick) to earn its status. Brick unicorns have history to rely on. They’ve already proven themselves. There is no big, bad wolf in the world that is going to blow them down. What does that translate into in reality? Profitability is a key contributor. Years of maximizing profits successfully, while still displaying extremely rapid growth. Often this can be traced back to market opportunity — is this organization adaptable enough to create and service an enormous market? If they’re solving problems for wide-reaching verticals such as life sciences or financial services, the answer is likely yes.
Unicorn  Decacorn 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Priceline's Lessons for Uber, Airbnb and Other Unicorns - Bloomberg View
But it was its market valuation that drove the fascination, and after the stock price collapsed from a high of $974.25 a share in April 1999 to $6.75 in December 2000, people mostly stopped talking about Priceline.com. [...] First, that the huge valuations being attached to today’s leading digital startups probably aren’t all crazy. Second, that those valuations may make it hard for late-round private investors, or the rest of us after the eventual IPOs, to make much money off the insight that Uber or Airbnb or Snapchat is in fact built to last. And finally, the big lesson for these companies may be to set aside a bunch of that investor cash for when times get tough -- and maybe hire a CEO, or at least a general counsel, who is really good at making acquisitions.
Uber  Private  Market  AirBnB  Unicorn  Decacorn  hunt  for  yield  growth  round  Private  Equity  Mutual  Fund  Silicon  Valley  dot.com  Snapchat  IPO  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Twitter 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: In the Valley, pre-seed is a meme. In New York, it’s a necessity
// cost of entry? // unable to make it happen? // Can't you write software from anywhere? // problem, heavily diluted early on approaching A/B, traditional shops don't like the cap table of pre-seed, angels, seed, accelerator & Micro VC's already owning ~+40% ... you come to a traditional A/B shop and not one of the existing investors is actually leading the round or committed in paper do double down? // // from a financial perspective/investment/math --- in the PRIVATE MARKET thrown under the bus by NIRP, QE, hunt for yield and FOMO (looking for their female unicorn or own Zuck) everyone can run 100 burger stands with unlimited/stellar returns in their spreadsheet model (bc cost of capital being 0 or negative). Despite the deflation of price of software & hosting (marginal cost, economics of abundance), Talent got bid up heavily (+200k/y in LA by Snapchat) in certain cities (SV, NY, London) // &! Steen Jakobsen - youtu.be/fnp5ETnKylU - min 16 avg guy does not have access to credit!
Seed  Round  Party  Round  Venture  Capital  Micro  VC  barriers  to  entry  cost  of  entry  London  Start-up  Scene  ecosystem  New  York  Scene  burn  rate  runway  traction  A  Round  seedfunding  funding  Angel  Investor  dilution  cap  table  lesson  advice  liquidation  preferences  hunt  for  yield  2015  distortion  FOMO  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  Limited  Partners  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Wall  Street  asset  bubble  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  Silicon  Valley  Private  Market  Public  Market  reflate  reflation  cost  of  living  valuation  Unicorn  Decacorn  cost  of  leverage  financial  repression  financial  literacy  financial  financial  cycle  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  hubris  panic  irrational  exuberance  retail  banking  investment  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  crisis 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Twitter works just fine – but for investors, anything except total market domination is a disaster | Comment is free | The Guardian
Nothing better illustrates capitalism’s addiction to illogic than the mismatch between Twitter’s workability and its unpopularity with Wall Street [...] Any company that cannot demonstrate a clear route to monopolising its space, monetising its users’ data on a vast scale, is to be discarded, targeted for acquisition, consigned to perpetual dowdiness. [...] When I’ve pointed to Wikipedia, Apache or Linux as harbingers of a new, non-market, open source economics, one of the stock responses is: “now show us something more spectacular.” The problem is, these modest, functional and free products are already in their own way spectacular. Wikipedia is the biggest information product in the world; Apache runs half the world’s web servers; and Linux is the system of choice for at least a third of all servers (the computers that run businesses) and 97% of the world’s supercomputers.
Twitter  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  short-term  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  crony  capitalism  capitalism  exploitation  post-capitalism  monopoly  monopsony  oligopoly  oligopol  Facebook  IPO  Google  Open  Source  Share  Economy  Open  Data  Wikipedia  GNU/Linux  Apache  Wordpress  creative  destruction  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  3D  printing  Robotics  automotive  self-driving  cars  disrupting  markets  disruption  Marketplace  commodity  business  commoditization  marginal  cost  differentiate  differentiation  economics  of  abundance  autonomous  car  automation  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  21stcentury  Collaborative  collaboration  cooperation  user  generated  content  crowdsourcing  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  Industrial  Revolution  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  Universal  Basic  Income  winner  take  all  Amazon  SAP  Salesforce  inequality  Thomas  Piketty  Super  Rich  1%  mainstreet.org  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Gini  coefficient  deregulation  neoliberalism  neoliberal  self-regulation  regulators  regulation  utility  public  utility  Good  Silicon  Valley  Unicorn  Decacorn  Private  Market 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Gurley on Global Selloff: Bloomberg West (Full Show 8/21) - YouTube
'averting catastrophic events' - hard things about hard things - book // when taking on growth round to grow aggressively company (buying customer growth)... you might actually take on risk. especially when the sentiment and the market turns and you burned it all and weren't so good at allocating the money and 'growing' you have to maybe raise a flat/downround ... ooopsies. Or even have to accept a debt round and massive lay-off to get to cash flow even/positive. And run a tight ship with the user base/business you've got. // re: post-price correction after speculative China bubble burst and massive China weakness and still existing/persistent deflationary pressures in western world. // &! bit.ly/1NTc3GM - Public markets affect venture funding. Full stop.
growth  round  IPO  Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  Private  Market  Unicorn  Decacorn  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  2015  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  burn  rate  runway  sentiment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  China  recovery  bubble  reflate  reflation  book  Ben  Horowitz  Marc  Andreessen  business  model  cash  flow  cash-is-king  Start-Up  lesson  financial  model  Start-Up  advice  valuation  Mark  Suster  Wall  Street 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Marc Benioff: 'Unicorns' May Struggle in Tougher Market - YouTube
its not about market cap, its about the customer, stupid. // Stockmarket is for the retirement investing, long-term ...
Unicorn  Marc  Benioff 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why Billion-Dollar Valuations Don’t Matter | TechCrunch
I recently heard a story about one VC pushing a company to drive their burn up from $1 million a month to $2.5 million. Unfortunately, an inefficient sales force will always come back to bite you in the butt. We typically think of 60 percent as the benchmark for a healthy performing sales organization. Anything less and you don’t have a repeatable model. [ avc did write about that you need to find product/market fit, traction, self starter, great net promoting score, without spending marketing/advertising/pr ] [...] The goal of every entrepreneur and VC for that matter should be to build sustainable and scalable businesses. The only way to do that is to focus on the metrics that truly matter. The companies that nail many, if not all, of the above criteria will be the ones that make it to the finish line, and the balance will be wandering through the forest looking for someone to feed them.
Unicorn  SAAS  Slack  DropBox  Box  Venture  Capital  Silicon  Valley  growth  round  2015  KPI  metrics  accounting  user  churn  customer  retention  upselling  customer  acquisition  CAC  Decacorn  on-demand  convenience  Marketplace  business  model  user  acquisition  Product/Market  Fit  Share  Economy  middleman  scale  economies  of  scale  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  Start-Up  advice  Start-Up  lesson  burn  rate  runway  Homejoy  Net  Promoter  Score  consumer  product  business  product  B2C  B2B 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
[ AMAZON's culture ] by USA TODAY Tech (podcast)
Amazon, Silicon Valley, Unicorns and Decacorns - go go go even for broke. making things happen. winning the category. // vs Google and Facebook are those that won sort of automatically and had not that much internal and external pressure growing up. had not to fight surviving dot.com crash. Facebook sort of became a self-runner despite of its many missteps. Amazon had to fight all the way, and still has to fight because now it faces antitrust on both sides of the Atlantic. That creates, inadvertently, a specific culture that has been cited by personal examples in the NYT piece.
Amazon  Silicon  Valley  Unicorn  Decacorn  corporate  culture  corporate  values  work  environment  environment  perks  benefits  beyond  workplace  drama  Office  Politics  career  ladder  career  advice  Leadership  CEO  Jeff  Bezos  Millennials  peer  pressure  people  management  business  management  team  management  HR  human  resources  hiring  burnout  chronic  stress  stress  work  life  balance  workplace 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why I'm Moving My Business From San Francisco to St. Louis | Need/Want
// one VC/Angel said, its not that you run out of money, you run out of time to find the magic that makes things for your product work, MVP, Product/Market Fit, that kick up in net promoter score, that multiple in q/q growth, etc etc. // If you’re trying to bootstrap, being based in San Francisco is awful. [ Same with London and New York followed by LA and Seattle. ] Cheap cities are startup friendly. [ don't opt for Edinburgh, if go to Glasgow or Manchester (which got already a small start-up scene plus Media City, Salford) ] We’re an internet company. We don’t need to be tied to a specific location. Hiring remote and having a distributed work force is far cheaper than hiring locally and making everyone come into an office. // &! bit.ly/1EvpTcY
San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  Mountain  View  growth  round  Google  Facebook  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  Silicon  Valley  barriers  to  entry  cost  of  living  cost  of  entry  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Seed  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  bootstraped  bootstrapping  bootstrapped  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Los  Angeles  Start-Up  Scene  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  Taper  Unicorn  Decacorn  2015 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Uber operating at big losses, suggests document leak - BBC News
They show operating losses of more than $100m (£65m) in the second quarter of 2014, albeit coupled with steady growth in revenue. In a statement, the company hit back at reports but did not deny them."Shock, horror, Uber makes a loss," it said. "This is hardly news, and old news at that," it added. "It's a case of business 101: you raise money, you invest money, you grow (hopefully), you make a profit and that generates a return for investors." [...] One positive note to emerge was the fact that the company increased its cash holdings from $263m in 2013 to over $1bn the following year. [ war chest ] [ growth round = do or die, no conservative mode ]
Uber  Venture  Capital  growth  round  Unicorn  Decacorn  2015  Lift  termsheet  liquidation  preferences 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The only stat about unicorns that should worry Silicon Valley
Now theres a new reason 2 fear the ‘corn: They are insanely capital inefficient. And over the last year, they’ve gotten even more so at an alarming rate... // dead Unicorn (their own making) because of burn rate w expensive offices ('we are successful'), developers, aggressive drive ('acquiring market share in a new market') to acquire customers (and not even making the math long term - life time customer value), ... with each round they have 2 be more aggressive, especially with these liquidity preferences inked in, actually keeping the risk level instead of reducing/mitigating the risk. All 2 blow out the IPO & not end up lower on day 1/compared 2 the last growth round. Box couldnt make a higher valuation after day 1 post-IPO than their last growth round via Private Equity. Existing investors got diluted in order to meet last rounds term sheet liquidity preferences/guarantees. // &! Either u risk more, or the other (competition) will, will outspend, overtake u. &! bit.ly/1Ji536P
burn  rate  Unicorn  Decacorn  runway  Silicon  Valley  growth  round  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  Bill  Gurley  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Blue  Ocean  Venture  Capital  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  SPV  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  IPO 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Fear Trumps Greed in Silicon Valley as Some Venture Firms Hedge - Bloomberg Business
[... high ops cost associated w SF/Palo Alto ... fancy office (and expensive (rarefied) developers from Google or Facebook) in SF as a sign of success while burning +2m per year at least with no cash flow in sight ... and with all consumer products being free and hoping to finance themselves in the future with advertising ... ] Some VCs are urging their companies to build a rainy day fund to ensure their survival. [...] It’s a constant battle deciding whether to invest in a potentially lucrative deal, said Philadelphia financier Rudy Karsan: “Greed versus fear.” [ Softbank Capital just last week came out publicly with a shift in strategy, to invest now ONLY in proven winners, at slightly premium to get in (and with preferred liquidation preferences in writing), &focus resources on those portfolio companies ... than to compete in a crowded, distorted, muggy, in transparent, very speculative (with lots of ifs and luck and bet on CEO to execute well) A-, B- (and C-Round) market. ]
Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  cash  flow  cash-is-king  hunt  for  yield  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  growth  round  SPV  war  for  talent  Private  Market  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  bubble  USA  Fed  Taper  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  Angel  Investor  Seed  business  model  advertising  VC  Venture  Capital  Greed  FOMO  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  SoftBank  Capital  IPO  NASDAQ  A  Unicorn  Decacorn  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  exit  strategy  M&A  acquisition  acquihire  acqui-hire  business  cycle  business  plan  business  investment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  leverage  debtoverhang  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Welcome To The Unicorn Club, 2015: Learning From Billion-Dollar Companies | TechCrunch
capital efficiency of these “private unicorns” is surprisingly low, [ << bc they (1) use growth round to buy aggressively market share/customers and (2) Palo Alto/San Francisco/New York/London is expensive locations - prices driven up by Venture Capital & Angel Investments & hunt for developers - employees can command negotiations about their price in most cases. ] [...] 7) Take heart, “old people” of Silicon Valley: Companies with educated, tech-savvy, experienced 30-something, co-founding teams with history together have built the most successes. Twenty-something founders and successful pivots are the minority; dedicated CEOs who are able to scale their companies for the long haul are not. [...] Optimistic private markets sheltering a thicket of “paper unicorns.” [ << Bill Gurley, there will be a dead unicorn ] [...] [SAAS] are also among the more capital efficient companies on average in our set[.] [...] There’s still too little diversity at the top in 2015
Unicorn  Silicon  Valley  marketshare  growth  round  FOMO  Private  Market  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  SPV  diversity  gender  bias  gender-based  discrimination  gender  politics  gender  equality  gender  policing  gender-based  harassment  STEM  pattern  matching  pattern  recognition  nurture  environment  entrepreneur 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Homejoy Is Shutting Down At The End Of The Month | TechCrunch
tcrn.ch/1CO0OOU / 7:10 $VC subsidized early business. Could not get 2 cash flow even. Lets not speak of cash flow positive. // If u dont have a cash flow even/positive business, u are dependent on $VC 2 keeping it afloat. If u dont have massive growth, VCs like 2 see & not hitting ur milestones & ur still not able 2 turn the business arnd towards cash flow even. Ur dead in the pan. AND 4 digital only consumer & entertainment products, scale is important +10m users. Because then only advertisers might ... might consider placing an add/natively if the conversion & engagement metrics are attractive. Advertisers & brands cant spread resources thin across 1000 apps. Its overhead & waste in ops. That is why BIG like TV (still), Daily Paper/Magazine (still) and FB (owning +70% of Social) are the MAIN HUBS. >> THUS [Freemium] the Free On Phone Version 4 closetphile (wont cost u much except dev) & the Customer paying 4 Cloud Convenience,Security, more features (ie analytics). &! bit.ly/1CSygUA
Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  on-demand  convenience  scale  economies  of  scale  Venture  Capital  burn  rate  runway  business  model  closetphile  wardrobemalfunction  freemium  Homejoy  added  value  value  creation  Perception  Silicon  Valley  Unicorn  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Appification  mobile  homescreen  mobile  first  mobile  phone  irrational  exuberance  Rocket  Internet  Uber  Lyft  customer  acquisition  customer  acquisition  cost  customer  retention  customer  lifetime  value  SAAS  Postmates  Service  Sector  Jobs  1099  Economy  uncertainty  self-employment  Niedriglohnsektor  Niedriglohn  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  commodity  business  commoditization  price  sensitive  price  insensitive  price  sensitivity  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  status  symbol  status  anxiety  socioeconomic  status  social  status  craigslist  sustainable  sustainability  metrics  KPI  Circa  Share  Economy  marketshare  unit  economics 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Silicon Valley: 'Centre of the universe' - but for how long? - BBC News
Bill Gurly; there will be a dead unicorn. again, predictions are hard. but pointing out fundy skew is ok. ie cost, and raising lots of money with no business model/revenue stream even in the pipeline ...
Silicon  Valley  irrational  exuberance  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  growth  round  late-stage  funding  Unicorn  Bill  Gurley 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The frustrating, no-win "Goldilocks Zone" of seed deals
Don’t do party rounds. Raise as much as you possibly can so you don’t get crunched. Don’t raise money from just seed funds. Don’t raise money from just big name VCs unless you know you’ll breakthrough, and then absolutely do. And actually you never know that, so nevermind. Oh, and good luck rationalizing all of this advice, first timers. [...] TL;DR version: Large VC firms may do lots of seed deals but each partner will only do one to two Series A deals a year. So basic math tells you it’s a game of survivor. Most of the seed deals will not get a Series A from that firm. The concern is if you don’t quite make the cut, is the signal so bad to other VCs that you are worse off than if you never raised that, say, $200k from a big name VC to begin with? [ not every product consumer or b2b will not be a 500m/1bn dollar company, thus it's not worth it to raise risk capital and just grind it out!? at a sustainable pace, putting back in what you earned. ] &! bit.ly/1HjO13v
Seed  Round  Party  Round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  Venture  Capital  Series  A  seedround  seedfunding  traction  business  model  Silicon  Valley  economies  of  scale  pageviews  Unicorn  valuation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Snapchat Solicits Longer Content By Ditching Tap-And-Hold-To-Watch | TechCrunch
bit.ly/1NAmQWu "he's showing that he can make practical decisions that benefit the Snapchat users, even if it means losing something that was fundamental to Snapchat's product itself." // But doesn't he give up the 'attention grab/focus' feature for long-form content and thus also loosing share of the snacking %' !!?? long-term we will see what Snapchat will become and be eventually worth. Because it won't be a Facebook. It could turn out to be a Twitter with problems in monetisation (turning a profit and meeting growth stage investors expectations - current valuation ... at IPO and post-IPO one, two years on.) Gary might be right about putting yourself out of business than letting the other guys do it for you. But Snapchat (Mr Spiegel) may have been forced to abandon its 'differentiation' in order to meet valuation expectations by appealing to a broader potential user base to use it more, like to read news & consumer other types of content than Snapchats ( P2P or B2C versions ).
Snapchat  snacking  attention  span  user  behaviour  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  valuation  Evan  Spiegel  product  management  consumer  product  Social  Media  Social  Network  Core  Value  Proposition  product  experience  Design  Minimal  Viable  Product/Market  Fit  Officer  differentiate  differentiation  Twitter  Facebook  business  model  Unicorn  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  growth  round  Silicon  Valley 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Sacca: Bad Deals Are Being Done in Silicon Valley - Bloomberg Business
min 3 - normal people have been prices out of SV, SF, Palo Alto and around the region. sw engineers with entitelment and very little compassion. // bloom.bg/1I8NCAM &! bloom.bg/1Hzb5za &! bloom.bg/1BaVBji &! bloom.bg/1Fd2zQf (Amazon, Fb, Google, eBay, all had cash flow during its growth past IPO, Twitter ops too expensive compared to scale, living beyond its means. does not need to invest in warehouses (Amazon) nor data centers (Google)) // &! bloom.bg/1e8mFGd &! bloom.bg/1L2Accs &! bloom.bg/1INBZ7N &! bloom.bg/1TgmWqi &! http://lowercasecapital.com/2015/06/03/what-twitter-can-be-2/ &! http://lowercasecapital.com/2015/05/21/i-bleed-aqua/ - Sarah Lacy from pando argues, he bleeds green - pando.com/2015/06/11/the-icahn-was-coming-from-inside-the-house-why-dick-costolos-ouster-changes-the-valley/ &! pando.com/2015/06/12/im-more-similar-to-elon-the-5-silliest-things-chris-sacca-said-yesterday/
Chris  Sacca  Silicon  Valley  ecosystem  Twitter  runway  burn  rate  cash  flow  business  model  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  hunt  for  yield  distortion  growth  round  SPV  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  late-stage  funding  Private  Market  Private  Equity  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  cash-is-king  Bill  Gurley  Unicorn  Hype  Cycle  inflation  Venture  Capital  Micro  VC  Angel  Investor  war  for  talent 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Who Will Be Hurt Most When The Tech Bubble Bursts? Not VCs | TechCrunch
In a nutshell, FOMO is driving many investors in a hustle to be a part of the next Facebook or Twitter and put in huge investments for a fraction of stake. And, they don’t see much risk in it as long as they get the downside protection. [ growth round = rocket fuel splashed onto stuff to acquire more customers and market share (basically, but not always) ] [...] Someday, pretty soon, these will be put to the test, and valuations based on visibility of earnings will matter again. A few will succeed of course, but several others will fall – it remains to be seen how miserably. VCs will most likely walk away with their invested money, if not more. It’s the employees and founders who will see their million-dollar dreams crash and burn. [living beyond ur means & betting dollars you dont have on a time that seems further away than u can even guess (secular stagnation)] [lack of income growth (across the western world) thus disposable income (discretionary spending) is also not helping]
Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  operations  Bill  Gurley  Unicorn  runway  FOMO  Venture  Capital  growth  round  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  Private  Market  Private  Equity  SPV  bubble  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  disinflation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  western  world  business  model  revenue  revenues  fiscal  policy  income  growth  USA  OECD  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  disposable  income  policy  error  Taper  policy  folly  monetary  policy  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  1%  Super  Rich  on-demand  convenience  Share  Economy  labour  labour  economics  discretionary  spending  Schuldenbremse  PIGS  Brexit  Grexit  currency  war  macroeconomics  Pact  Europe  productivity  Lohnzurückhaltung  job  creation  globalisation  globalization  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  flat  world  borderless  competitive  Future  of  Work  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  economic  history  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  demographic  bubble  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Unicorn sugar crash | PandoDaily
liquidation preferences // // &! http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2015/05/14/the-most-important-advice-i-could-give-you-about-unicorns/ - So here’s advice I give people all the time when they’re raising money. Narratives matter. Narratives are memorable. I’m not talking about raising money at a billion dollars. I’m talking about making your company memorable by describing it with a narrative that people will later remember. Showing people your features or even your recent performance lacks context and won’t be memorable. Your business needs to be cast in a story that puts it into perspective. Why is your market broken? Why is your solution 10x better? Why are you the unique person to solve this problem? Why is it a really big market? Why is it ready for disruption? Why is now the right time? How do you remain defensible?
Unicorn  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  growth  round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Silicon  Valley  pitch  deck  valuation  speculative  speculation 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
One Thing All the Billion-Dollar Unicorns Have in Common | Re/code
[Granting liquidation preferences ie 2x or 3x to your investors/private equity/spv just so to get this growth round (covering burn) closed, is showing you not believing in your ability and product and company to make a profit now or in the very near future. Really? Liquidation preferences are anti VCish, everyone is not in the same boat. An addicts behaviour. Box granted in its last private round by PE, liquidation preferences and a guaranteed timeline to IPO both punitive, also bc timeline for IPO could not be met, both hurt the company and existing shareholders bc of dilution of their existing shares value.] “It turns out that for companies of a certain size, it’s not that hard to get to unicorn status, provided they’re willing to give their investors a lot of assurances that essentially cover their potential losses. The one thing common in every one of these funding deals, the firm says, that in every case — all 37 of them — investors demanded a ‘liquidation preference.'”
Unicorn  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Silicon  Valley  SPV  growth  round  hunt  for  yield  Private  Equity  burn  rate  runway  business  model  Venture  Capital  Mutual  Fund  Hedge  Fund  termsheet  liquidation  preferences 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Zenefits Is Tagged With a $4.5 Billion Valuation After Just Two Years - Digits - WSJ
Zenefits raises $500M C at $4.5B valuation led by @Fidelity & TPG; provides automated cloud HR solutions incl hiring, payroll, time off; generates rev acting as insurance broker; now claims 10k business clients, says 70% of client co emps purchase insurance; each emp generates $450/yr for Zenefits; expects $100M ARR in Jan, up from $20M ARR last Jan; has 1k emps, plans to hire 1.3k (sales and marketing/advertising) more over next 3 yrs; raised $584M to date &! http://pando.com/2015/05/06/zenefits-raises-500-million-for-its-hr-software-and-insurance-hybrid-beating-off-new-customers-with-a-stick/
Zenefits  Unicorn  growth  round  Private  Market  Private  Equity 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
You Need To Be A Billion Just To Make A Million | TechCrunch
[ especially consumer apps being hit driven business, already, that can go out of fashion as quickly as they came, might be a flash in a pan like Secret & work only on the SV/SF ] Competition in the Valley has started reaching a new peak, with candidates demanding all kinds of accoutrements just to change jobs. But it’s not just recruiting that has become more challenging. Sales, marketing, public relations — essentially every task that a startup has to do is just more difficult today given this cutthroat environment. The only way to respond to the higher threshold has been to raise ever more capital, and earlier as well. We now have the rise of the “instant unicorn” that can raise hundreds of millions of capital in just the first months of a company’s existence. That means companies are already worth billions, before they may have made their first million dollars in revenue or gotten their first million users. That’s the new normal, and founders have to be ready to adapt.
Silicon  Valley  San  Francisco  barriers  to  entry  distortion  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  A  Round  Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  hunt  for  yield  Private  Market  competitive  advantage  ecosystem  burn  rate  runway  MVP  Product/Market  Fit  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  unintended  consequences  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Venture  Capital  Private  Equity  growth  growth  hacking  growth  hacker  structural  imbalance  Impediments  creative  destruction  Unicorn  competitiveness  competition  competitive  Signal  vs.  Noise  allocation  attention  span  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  Silicon  Alley  HR  human  resources 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
The Micro VC Shakeout | TechCrunch
NIRP, QE, hunt for yield and FOMO (on Silicon Valley) created the conditions for people from SV and around, to create a small fund! Period. mass of micro vcs, seed funds, accelerators and angels is a symptom. // people become fearless, ... warren buffet saying 'Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful' // VCs and Private Equity, for growth rounds, stab each other in the back to be in into the next Unicorn's growth round << Greedy
Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  barriers  to  entry  complexity  unintended  consequences  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  asset  allocation  ecosystem  FOMO  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  Accelerator  distortion  Unicorn  growth  Private  SPV  Wall  Street  bubble 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Behind Nasdaq’s Rebound: Tech Products People Want to Use - Bloomberg Business
Forward 12-month P/E for $SPX of 17.1 is above 5-year and 10-year averages. - twitter.com/FactSet/status/592086099058626561 - http://www.factset.com/insight/2015/04/earningsinsight_4.25.15 - For Q1, More than Half of S&P 500 Companies Have Reported Sales Below Estimates to Date // TAPER - http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=20163 So take the five tantrum years together and the average yield spike is 137 basis points. That’s a third higher than the 100 basis points the International Monetary Fund said last week was possible and warned even “shifts of this magnitude can generate negative shocks globally.”
NASDAQ  Unicorn  Silicon  Valley  distortion  Private  Equity  ZIRP  NIRP  bubble  QE  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  2015  Taper 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
- Startups - Sarah Lacy, Founder, Editor-in-Chief, and CEO of PandoMedia -TWiST #329 - YouTube
Digg had leadership vaccum and Kevin Rose tend's to doubt himself (fear of failure, breaking Digg, breaking the lucky streak/breakout hit what he/they've had) 12:30 - Silicon Valleys Unicorn's personal press core distorts other 'moderate' success, and those are looked down on them and feel worse than failure, for people and entrepreneurs, running sustainable cash flow businesses with 5-10% m/m growth rate. << Symptom of a self-serving universe/culture/bubble.
Silicon  Valley  Digg  Unicorn  distortion  Failure  TechCrunch  Mike  Arrington  public  image  public  interest  public  discourse  public  perception  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  bubble 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Slack's massive funding round is everything amazing and insane about the startup bubble | The Verge
[ COMPETITION 4 HOT DEAL, Private Market (Private Equity) highest bidder wins. Thus to get in, people make compromises. ] "It’s the best time ever in the history of the world, or at least the tech industry, to raise money. Will it get better? It’s possible. Six months from now, we might say darn it, we should have waited," Butterfield told me. "On the other hand it’s a pretty amazing deal. In a certain respect it would have been irresponsible not to take it for five-ish percent of the company on clean terms." For those not familiar with venture capital, Butterfield means he only had to give up a small percentage of the ownership in Slack to get this new funding, and that the deal didn't come with a bunch of crazy terms which favored the new investors. [...] [ also mentioned 20-30% rise in HR cost compared to last year! << SF/SV becomes prohibitive for bootstrapping & even for Seed/Angel backed start-ups w 2-5m. Run out of time (MVP fit) bc run out of cash bc high local burn rate. ]
Slack  Unicorn  growth  round  Silicon  Valley  San  Francisco  distortion  Private  Market  Private  Equity  Venture  Capital  SAAS  Enterprise  2.0  valuation  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Cloud HR Startup Zenefits Is Looking To Raise A Giant New Round Of Funding | TechCrunch
Aims 2 raise up2 $500M at $3B+ valuation; Zenefits prev said it expected $100M ARR by '15; expects GAAP rev of $50M+ this yr; prev raised $83.6M // Free SAAS, makes money by receiving commissions from insurers. [NEEDS SALES & MARKETING hires to sustain growth trajectory and justification of valuation multiple.] By the end of 2014, Zenefits had around 500 employees, according to sources, but that number is expected to quadruple by the end of 2015. Last year, the company said it wanted to hire around 1,300 employees over the next 3 years. [Capturing Marketshare USA/Canada - hitting it with the baseball bat.] // youtu.be/KporpXG0XK8 min6 direct marketing/e-mail/hustle/hands on sales pitch > COO/Accounting/HR // youtu.be/7KmjzfK3f38 min 11 Start-up struggle, figuring it out along the way but having a sense // (2015) youtu.be/8DwlS_6jLAo "Hyperscaling Inside Sales" &! YC W2013 application video - youtu.be/-S83fysRwn4
valuation  Silicon  Valley  Zenefits  HR  Unicorn  growth  round  enterprise  2.0  SAAS  SPV  business  model  customer  acquisition  user  churn  customer  churn  user  acquisition  marketing  Box  DropBox  Salesforce  ZenDesk  user  experience  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  operations  freemium  scaling  LTV  scale  human  resources  hiring  Core  Product  Value  Proposition  sales 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages: Amazon.co.uk: Carlota Perez: 9781843763314: Books
Carlota Perez draws upon Schumpeter's theories of the clustering of innovations to explain why each technological revolution gives rise to a paradigm shift and a "New Economy" and how these "opportunity explosions", focused on specific industries, also lead to the recurrence of financial bubbles and crises. // // imagine in the USA, no welfare state & social safety net, +500.000 self-employed workers on those marketplaces find no jobs because of a deep recession (short-fall of disposable income for convenience services) // bit.ly/1BrAPFJ - In the new world of on-demand everything, you’re either pampered, isolated royalty — or you’re a 21st century servant. [...] Carnegie Mellon researchers warned that the internet could make us into hermits.
Silicon  Valley  Hype  Cycle  speculative  bubbles  Share  Economy  Uber  convenience  TaskRabbit  Shyp  service  Services  Industry  Sector  Jobs  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  precarious  work  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  self-employment  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  Venture  Capital  Snapchat  Unicorn  consumer  internet  consumerism  consumer  consumer  confidence  book  Industrial  Revolution  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Robotics  algorithm  3D  printing  automation  Future  of  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  Postmates  Lyft  Hailo  Delivery  Hero  Just  Eat  saddl.nl  Drinkfly  DoorDash  sprig  Wineist  SpoonRocket  Onfleet  OLA  BlaBlaCar  Sidecar  Zipcar  Houzz  Instacart  Deliveroo  Operator  Hello  Alfred 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
[PreMoney MIAMI] Upfront Ventures, Mark Suster, "Venture Outlook 2015 - Goldrush or Fool's Gold" - YouTube
(1) Change from Sales Funnel to Funnel of Intent on Mobile and Social Media. Lower Marketing/Early user acquisition cost at scale. And tap to credit cards to with one click through third party Platforms. And also Open Source Software Stacks and buying 'by time' the hardware stack on Google, AWS or Azure is paradigm shift. Results also in noise one has to break through first - raising the bar (by user choice) for everyone. (2) min10 - Value Creation held inside Private Market through growth & late-stage investing instead of IPO with single-class share structure with wobbily business numbers 'help you god that you aren't out 24m later' because of impatient Wall Street. (3) min14 Series D valuations show Private Market highest bidder wins phenomenon. But Valuations are up across the board. And with more Seed/Angel Investors, Seed Valuations are also bid up higher compared to ABC. // &! min29 youtu.be/25TxrhsXFvs - 500 Startups, Dave McClure "4 Years of Moneyball - What Have We Learned"
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  A  Round  growth  Venture  Capital  Sales  Funnel  Funnel  of  Intent  mobile  first  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  Social  Media  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  secular  stagnation  productive  investment  Private  Market  Platform  TOS  2000  dot.com  bubble  2008  IPO  Wall  Street  single-class  share  structure  SPV  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  late-stage  funding  Unicorn  seedround  seedfunding  angelinvestor  angel-list  Angel  Investor  angelinvestors  incomplete  information  complexity  unintended  consequences  Dave  McClure  Mark  Suster  UpFront  Ventures  500  Start-ups  paradigm  shift 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Marc Andreessen on innovation and diversity | Fortune - YouTube
Public Market became cautious '14/'15: oil price slump + China + Russia + secular stagnation of the west in general (productivity gap & output gap), Abenomics, negative bond yields for gov debt and nearly 0 for corporate AAA debt, deflationary pressures in UK (0% inflation last 2 quarters), Europe (steady decline of M3 & issuance of new debt), & USA (with deflationary pressures as well). macroeconomic indicators do signal caution, because despite all the efforts (throwing the bathtub at the problem; ECB installing negative yield 4 overnight bank deposits with them) from central banks (NIRP, QE, POMO & other policies), the economic engine of the world & the west is still not going into 3rd or higher. // & Andreesen's argument, against, that tech is in bubblish territory, is, that in comparison with '99/'00 & the Public Markets current caution; (re-)investment (GOOG 11bn '14) & share buybacks (IBM, MSFT) schemes & dividends payout dwarf VC & growth rounds in tech by several magnitudes.
2015  IPO  M&A  Wall  Street  shareholder  shareholder  value  Silicon  Valley  bubbles  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  recovery  GFC  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  Fed  Public  Market  Private  Market  hunt  for  yield  single-class  share  structure  Marc  Andreessen  Venture  Capital  Unicorn  economic  history  macroeconomics  debt  bubble  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  distortion  sovereign  debt  crisis  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  Super  Cycle  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Gillmor Gang: Money for Nothing - Gillmor Gang | TechCrunch TV
min 42 // A Round is now a "post-traction" investment aka proven product & business model. A Round is an investment to scale it up, put it up a bunch of gears. // Keith Teare from chat.center (tcrn.ch/1IWFQ1X) people now doing pre-seed, seed, seed prime & bridge funding via existing investors; figuring out Product/Market fit, traction, funnel, etc. Now more than ever a hits driven business. // see also tcrn.ch/1c54UpN // Complexity of phenomenon - symptoms, causes and tangents; biases, selection bias, pattern matching, bidding up hot deals in the private market where the highest bidder will get the deal - irrationality of accepting those valuations and the founders Unicorn-status need, hunt for yield, trendy - the future, when doing 'hard things' becomes fashionable (ie Reality TV, TV Series & a shallow Channel 4's How To Be A Young Billionaire) then beware, negative yields for secure investments (bonds and corp debt), perceived 'conservative' value vs private bid up bubble potential.
Seed  Round  A  Round  traction  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  Silicon  Valley  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  behavioral  finance  bond  bubble  bubbles  equity  bubble  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  complexity  growth  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  pattern  matching  selection  bias  confirmation  bias  bias  Unicorn  Wall  Street  Private  Mutual  Fund  Hedge  Fund  Venture  Capital  savings  glut  productive  investment  business  model  Snapchat  WhatsApp  Instagram  Slack  Uber  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Share  Economy  Services  Industry  Niedriglohnsektor  incomplete  information  economic  history  marginal  cost  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  faultlines  Product/Market  Fit  value  creation  1000  True  Fans  Core  Product  Proposition  differentiate  differentiation 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
The Potential Upside To A Technology Bubble | TechCrunch
just look at the graph, seed ang frowth round are impacted only. while a is still up a sizable 80% y/y. makes sense. // // From the article ""I am currently reading Antifragile. The premise of the book is looking at potential gains in times of disorder [R.I.P. Good Times Slide Show (2008) - http://tcrn.ch/ZBZw7u], and it’s a terrific read for those involved in startups and investing. Navigating fundamental shifts in technology and outer market forces are key characteristics of great founders. I look at the funding landscape and see a terrific environment for learning. Bubble or not there are certain things that remain true. Great founders create amazing companies and great founders will always find a way to succeed."" // 1bn valuation and the attribution of Unicorn and 'product CEO' for life of _your_ company, became a status symbol. // first lava stream of money bid-up asia and brick, now flown/flowing out and bidding up the Private Market where highest bidder wins.
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  growth  hunt  for  yield  A  Round  GFC  recession  Unicorn  symptom  burn  rate  superficial  status  anxiety  status  symbol  Private  Equity  bubble  bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  secular  stagnation  liquidity  trap  speculative  bubbles  Super  Rich  1%  asset  allocation  incomplete  information  complexity  herding  bubbles  demographic  bubble  asset  bubble  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
What Etsy’s stellar debut doesn’t say about the IPO market | PandoDaily
markets so distorted [...] demand has grown strong enough investors are willing 2 overlook fact that most of tech companies IPOing still losing money. Last year 2/3 of tech companies that raised $100 million or more in IPOs went public with losses. This year, Box, GoDaddy & Etsy all received warm welcomes in public markets while awash in red ink. [bc there is so little alternative 4 actual earning any yield, money managers take on the risk anywy, bc otherwise they would look bad & get fired if they would not deploy the money. its always bad if u have 2 act in order 2 get not fired & not abel 2 say 'I will sit this 1 out.'] [day-one pop values etsy @18x revenue]. &! bit.ly/1HyfxNW [CEO Dickerson] & tcrn.ch/1G0ybi5 >> its abt shareholder value creation going forward >> bloom.bg/1E0H9br >> Founder "maximizing shareholder value is "ridiculous." // Cant marry WallStreet & long-term view, internal values, true 10x better customer value creation fwrd //&! bit.ly/1b08aC3 on.recode.net/1JNUY
Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  pension  Wall  Street  hunt  for  yield  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  secular  stagnation  Western  World  IPO  Unicorn  market  Silicon  Valley  incomplete  information  complexity  bubble  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  bubbles  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  burn  rate  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  crony  capitalism  community 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
"One-on-One" fundraising deals are hot in Silicon Valley - Fortune
“There’s a new term cropping up in startup pitch meetings: ‘One-on-one.’ It means the company is seeking to raise $100 million at a valuation of $1 billion. Startups are asking for it in deal talks, and investors contacted by Fortune are scratching their heads.” // soundcloud.com/bothsidestv/fred-wilson - Fred Wilson talks about the 1b craze, Chris Sacca talked about it, bill Gurly talked about it ... the private market nature of those "hot deals" turn into a highest bidder market where often only Private Equity can keep up! Not VC's even with Special Purpose Vehicles. And those wantrepreneurs take those back-breaking deals, taking as much as they can, bc everyone says they should, bc you don't know when the bottom drops. those wantrepreneurs don't believe in themselves and the product, to pull "the thing" off even in a down market. bc for one, they don't come even close to break even and don't know how and can't imagine/envision to do it in 12 months. #sympotom - see tcrn.ch/1FZtdCr
Silicon  Valley  wantrepreneur  Unicorn  private  market  distortion  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  secular  stagnation  pattern  matching  FOMO  selection  bias  confirmation  bias 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Would you rather be a real millionaire or a paper billionaire? The psychology of unicorns and the toll on Q1 returns | PandoDaily
And yet total cash going to venture backed companies was a whopping $17.7 billion– up over the $12.6 billion raised in the same period last year. But here’s the thing: Only $11.3 billion of that came from venture firms, throwing into question whether we should even still keep using the adjective “venture-backed” to describe the category. The disparity shows just how much more money is coming from non-VCs like hedge funds, private equity, mutual funds, and sovereign wealth funds, who have watched the private valuation growth of Facebook and the rest of the deca-corns and are desperately trying to get a stake in private companies before they IPO. [...] Things have gotten strange for VCs — and in turn, entrepreneurs — and the climate doesn’t seem to be improving
Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  growth  round  Venture  Capital  Silicon  Valley  Unicorn  hunt  for  yield  Sovereign  Wealth  Fund  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bubble  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Super  Cycle  savings  glut  liquidity  trap  productive  investment  speculative  bubbles  Wall  Street  incomplete  information  market  confirmation  bias  pattern  matching  pattern  recognition  selection  bias  bias  behavioral  finance 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Big Valuations Come With Dangerous Small Print | TechCrunch
[FOCUS on strategy, product, management, world class org] & then came in the PE guys (HedgeFunds & PrivateMutualFunds) & other non-traditional investors in start-ups, when investing in startups, want 2 protect the downside & want guaranteed upside minimum. 2 have that cake, it has 2 be in the term sheet via preferred liquidation preference. 2 have that in case of a suboptimal next round (ie IPO) that is only slightly up or even a down round, existing investors have & will be diluted by issuing more shares for the last investor, the PE guys, 2 guarantee them their upside minimum. // Start-up lesson & advice is stick with traditional VC (which is high risk high return) and maybe Special Purpose Vehicles organized from existing investors and their network for growth rounds. // PS the intro speaks abt a company taking term-sheet that gave them the 1bn valuation; could be Slack & the guy complaining abt it could have been either Chris Sacca or AVC
SPV  Venture  Capital  growth  round  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  IPO  Mutual  Fund  mutualfunds  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Wall  Street  hunt  for  yield  distortion  Silicon  Valley  Unicorn 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Josh Kopelman drops some knowledge on all you “private IPO-loving” unicorns | PandoDaily
[some type of investors use past experiences and results (FB) for putting money into growth rounds, into unicorns late past D. Very Different than LinkedIn - which had a base and profitability at IPO and continued to grow naturally with product going forward. Or Google.] Tomasz Tunguz entitled “The Runaway Train Of Late Stage Fundraising” in which the Redpoint Ventures partner tracks what he calls the frenetic state of the private market. Among the data points used by Tunguz to make that point “that the current investment levels aren’t yet justified by the exit environment,” is one tidbit tweeted out by Kopelman: 231 companies raised more than $40 million in growth rounds in 2014, by comparison, 240 venture capital-backed IT companies have gone public in the last 10 years. [...] by taking tons of venture money and avoiding an IPO, startups (mostly who proudly tout their unicorn status and $1 billion plus valuations) are avoiding sucking out loud.
Unicorn  growth  round  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  SPV  distortion  Wall  Street  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  complexity  unintended  consequences  incomplete  information  Silicon  Valley  IPO  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  savings  glut  productive  investment  private  market  disequilibrium 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
In Silicon Valley Frenzy, VCs Create New Inside Track - WSJ
special purpose vehicles are create to put together and make possible in the first place these mega growth rounds, sometimes mainly by existing investors own network. Because some funds raised itself by VC's are just 200-500m - covering an expected distance of 5 years with an additional 5 years or more till maturation of investments done with said fund, more even longer like +10 years. Some even are not cashing out during an IPO of said investment, bc history/data has shown that the return is of the long-term greater past the IPO compared to investment point to IPO. // "“Entrepreneurs should focus on investors that deliver value to them,” said Jeff Clavier, managing partner of venture firm SoftTech VC. “When you crowd out experience just to get an SPV going, then that’s a problem.” // ie a16z which is not ur usual VC shop but more like a services shop 2 support & put said investment on a fast track ie HR & Ops. Same with s23p providing detailed risk analysis & to do list 4evry pitch.
Silicon  Valley  Unicorn  Venture  Capital  Networking  savings  glut  allocation  efficiency  asset  allocation  allocation  Private  Market  Public  Market  transparency  inefficiencies  marketplace  efficiencies 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Sure Stripe has more cash, but does it have a path to exit? | PandoDaily
The problem with raising capital at nosebleed valuations is that the number of scenarios under which a positive outcome is possible becomes greatly diminished. By raising at $3.5 billion, Stripe, [... and Investors ...] — are betting that the company can exit at or above $7 billion. That’s a steep price and largely eliminates acquisition as an option. The list of potential acquirers is likely limited to Facebook, Google, Apple, eBay, Amazon, and Alibaba in the tech sector. On the financial side, there are the large banks and credit card companies. But it’s hard to see anyone ponying up $7 billion to acquire Stripe, which has yet to prove that it has a sustainable business or attractive margins. [...] Not every round requires a doubling valuation, and in this case, it may turn out that everyone involved would be better if more modesty was applied. [...] [ Merger of Square & Stripe as worst case scenario? ] [ & IPOs to forget - Box, Groupon, Zynga, HortonWorks ... ]
Venture  Capital  Stripe  Apple  Pay  PayPal  Google  Wallet  Bitcoin  Amazon  Alibaba  Rakuten  Silicon  Valley  growth  round  exitstrategy  exit  strategy  IPO  M&A  business  model  margin  AliPay  Braintree  mobile  first  mobile  homescreen  Platform  network  effect  economies  of  scale  scaling  scale  Venmo  valuation  ycombinator  Unicorn  Square  Wall  Street  mobile  payments  online  payments  creditcard  Visa  Mastercard  payments  micropayments  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice 
december 2014 by asterisk2a
The Lindy Effect on startup potential by @ASmartBear
The first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 10 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time. — Tom Cargill, Bell Labs [...] The general rule is called the Lindy Effect: For certain non-perishable things (like technology, companies, and ideas), the expected lifespan increases according to the length of its current age. A simple way to rewrite the adage is: However far you are, you can probably double it. [...] So the “startup growth” version of this rule is: You can probably double your size, doing roughly what you did to get to this point, but 10x will require innovation. [ >> Venture Capital / raising money / when and why to raise money / do you need to raise money? >> ] You get 2x by assumption but 10x you have to prove. If you’re in the business of raising money, you actually have to prove.
Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  growth  round  Venture  Capital  Silicon  Valley  ecosystem  Unicorn 
december 2014 by asterisk2a
Shrink Your Digital Footprint with Mark Cuban's Cyber Dust | Disrupt SF 2014 - YouTube
min 8:45 - Silicon Valley & Culture & Valuations (_cost of Living_!!! - Silicon Valley and surrounding areas ie SF and Palo Alto etc.) & FOMO (fear of missing out) ... arbitrage >> coming from the outside, selling it to the inside. +++ http://youtu.be/nXVKA__JohU
Silicon  Valley  Mark  Cuban  Start-Up  advice  Start-Up  lesson  FOMO  valuation  Unicorn  culture  hunt  for  yield  Los  Angeles  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  angelinvestor  angelinvestors  seedfunding  seedround 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
A Fireside Chat Jason Calacanis - YouTube
>> be short, sharp, compelling, have at least a mock-up if not better a MVP, or even better a product w traction. DONT ASK INVESTORS WHAT THE HAVE LEAST, TIME. ... and no dissing of unicorns (billion dollar exist, business),
Jason  Calacanis  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  focused  focus  execution  communication  Unicorn  MVP  Minimal  Viable  Product  Hustle  billion  dollar  exit  Venture  Capital  VC  angelinvestors  angelinvestor  seedround  seedfunding  traction 
june 2014 by asterisk2a

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